Week 13 Sunday Preview: Texans-Colts, Bills-Steelers and a series of Don't-Step-on-the-Rake Games

0:03Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays the second half of the week 13 preview is here. We had a handful of games from this week's slate, similar to what we did yesterday. Chatted Texans, Colts, Bill Steelers, and 49ers Browns. Also talked about a few games between playoff teams and very much not playoff teams and how some of those playoff hopefuls can avoid stepping on some rakes in what should be easy wins in week 13. And then we had to, we had to talk a little Sam Darnold playing against the Minnesota Vikings, even if Derek is trying to institute the Minnesota Vikings chat embargo.

0:40That's what we hit today. Me and Derek Klassen, Dave Hellman. Let's get to it right now.

0:49Getting to the rest of the week 13 slate, we're going to hit on three games today, plus a smaller collection of games that has a thematic through line that we'll touch on. But let's start with a pretty big game in the AFC South as the Houston Texans start to get designs about whether or not they can close the gap here and potentially give the Colts a scare in the division race. Like we did yesterday's show, we're going to hit just one thing we're looking for on both sides of the ball in these games. So kind of mini previews of these games compared to what we would do in a typical preview show.

1:25Let's start with the Texans offense against the Colts defense. Dave, this is all you, buddy. What are you looking for when the Texans offense has the ball in this one? With all due respect to Davis Mills, I'm looking for number seven to be out there. I hope CJ Stroud can play in this game. It's we're recording this on Wednesday, so it's early in the game week to know it. You know, he's in concussion protocol, so it's not as if this is an injury you can monitor over the course of a practice week. We're just going to have to wait and see, but I'm, I'm more into this. If, if CJ Stroud can play and it was amazing what they did against the Buffalo bills, we, we gushed about their defense.

2:08Derek's going to talk about Houston's defense in a minute, but I don't want to have to watch the Texans piece this together the way they did against Buffalo last week on offense with Davis Mills. I will say though, one interesting note about this and it's where I'm starting because it was one of the biggest factors in how the Texans offense managed to do enough to win that game. Houston's rushing success rate weeks one through 11 was 35.1%, which is dead last in the NFL, their rushing success rate of 46.2 % against Buffalo was enough to jump them up two or three spots in the league average standing over the course of the year.

2:58It was only the third time that they managed a rushing success rate over 40 % on the year. So their ability to actually move the ball on the ground for a change was very noticeable and had a very big impact in that matchup league league average is 40 by the way so like we're not asking for the world here for the Texans to bump up over 40 and I think they could do it again this week we we talked about it when we previewed Chiefs Colts like the Colts rush defense is nothing to get super excited about 25th on the year in rushing success rate DeForest Buckner still missing from the middle of that Colts defense.

3:41The Chiefs committed to the run for a change and were able to have not spectacular success, but just steady success on the ground. And regardless of who the quarterback is, I would expect Houston to try to do that again and try to once again bump those numbers up. And who knows? They might even be successful at it for a change. I think the running game is a good thing to point out. For me, the most impressive thing and the most encouraging thing about that performance against the Bills was the performance of the offensive line in general compared to what it had looked like for huge chunks of this season.

4:16The Texans offensive line last week gave up three quarterback pressures in that game against the Bills. And so they moved Titus Howard to guard, and Trent Brown is now playing right tackle, and it seems like that configuration might be the best five that they've settled on. And so that's what I'm excited about is that we haven't really seen CJ Stroud play quarterback for the Texans since they had a viable NFL offensive line that could give him like an icicles chance in hell of survival over four straight quarters. And so I do want to see that because we've gotten to a place, Derek, where the Texans offense has gone from embarrassing mess to something that is acceptable.

4:57And I want to see CJ Stroud in acceptable circumstances again. And obviously the Bills game was really good, but the week before against the Jaguars, I thought the offensive line actually looked decent and gave Davis Mills a chance. Like they are, again, they're probably not a great unit, but if they can get too mediocre against what we talked about last week, this Colts front is not that good. Like Liatu Latu is nice, but other than that, they don't have that many guys that you were scared of, especially if Buckner is going to be out of this game. And so I actually do think that this is a game where I'm not going to say the Houston offensive line and run game and pass protection can control the game, but I think they can give the rest of the offense enough breathing room and enough of a chance that especially if CJ Stroud is back, like they can make enough throws to go and actually put up enough points to win this game.

5:43I'm glad you guys bring this up because as I was doing my prep for this and looking at it, Houston's quarterback pressure rate on the season, shockingly good. It's 30, 31%, which is like in the bottom 10 of the league. Now, obviously a big part of that is they just get rid of the ball really, really quickly. I think they have the third lowest time to throw in the NFL. So part of that's getting rid of the ball, but this is a theme that I've gone back to over the course of the year. I think when you watch a team in prime time, like we all did against Seattle and it looks the way that it does against the Seahawks it sort of colors your perception of them where you're like, well, this is just a mess.

6:26The Texans can't do anything. And it's not a great offensive line, but the numbers over the course of the season point to it being a little more functional than you, than you probably give it credit for. And, and like I said, I think a big part of that is the quarterback just not hanging onto the football because you can't, but against this Colts front, which is certainly not a fire-breathing, world-beating front like Houston's, yeah, I think you could do enough here to have some success. I'm glad you point out the Seattle game because I think that's, as I think about my relationship with the Texans' offense, that obviously looms large.

7:06And it really did feel like after that game and at that point in the season, we were going to be at a place where it was like, are we really going to f***ing do this again? where the Texans offensive infrastructure is just going to be such a mess that the quarterback is going to have to deal with this all year, that the defense isn't going to matter because this is so bad. And I don't know if they'll end up making it, getting to a place where they're going to make the playoffs, whether it's ultimately going to matter in the grand scheme of their 2025 ambitions. But even if we can get to a spot over the final like six or seven weeks of the season, where the Texans offense from the play caller to the offensive line to what we're getting from the pass catching group is at a place where you feel decent about it.

7:48How much does that change how you feel about the 2026 Texans and about like the overall trajectory of the team? Because it really did feel like early in the season, we were in a same old shit place in a way that was really deflating and frustrating. And it does seem, Derek, like at least we're pulling out of that. And that is a good place to be if you're a Texans fan who is probably starting to lose their mind. I think if they feel like they have two useful pieces on the offensive line, whoever they are, and then you got like Jaden Higgins, I think, has started to play well for them. Woody Marks looks like a usable player.

8:22I think we both like what Jalen Knoll can be down the line. You've got enough here that, again, if we can replace one or two more of the offensive line starters and get this closer to like actual average instead of mediocre and trying to just get by and CJ Stroud can be healthy. It's like, okay, then they can be the team that they are hopefully supposed to be. And part of the reason they can be that team is because their defense is capable of doing what they did to the bills last week. And so let's dive into that side of the ball. The Texans defense dismantled the Buffalo bills last week. Now they play against an offense that for a good chunk of the season was the most efficient offense in the league.

8:56What are you looking for with the Colts offense against the Texans defense in this one, Derek? Mark. So I I realize this is going to sound a little bit like, you know, recency bias bias ish. I think the Texans hammered the Colts offense in this game. I think they match up with them exceptionally well. And this is for a number of reasons. The glee in his voice. So I'll start with this. Last week we talked about like, can we stop, like get them into negative down and distances from the run game? Texans run defense. They'll give up some explosives every now and then and you can you know their success rate is kind of whatever but 31.3 percent of their run defense snaps are stuffs or tackles for loss that's the fourth best in the league on first down specifically they're the second best in the league and so you have that element of it where they're going to be able to get Daniel Jones into some of these tough down and distances where I think we saw last week one he struggled in a lot of those situations and two the Colts clearly took the ball out of his hands in as much of those as they could they did not want him to play true dropback quarterback.

9:59And that was against a chief's defense that is kind of mediocre at being able to pressure you. This is probably outside of maybe Denver or Seattle, the best pressure team in the league when you have guys like Will Anderson and Daniel Hunter. And then the last thing that I would say, this Colts passing offense is awesome on play action, play action, RPO. They've been really, really good this season. I was hoping you were going to take here yes the texans have a 59.6 success rate as a defense uh versus non-play action stuff which is pretty good on its own against play action they're the best in the league by success rate at 66.3 this defense is awesome in every way and i think they match up exceptionally well with what they're gonna have to do against the colts texans bringing out a lot of f-bombs uh in us today when you watch You get it.

10:48So I was looking at the play action rates because I wanted to see what the Eagles were when I was looking at the Cowboys game and trying to we did on yesterday's show. We talked about the Eagles defense against play action against the Bears. And so in doing that, I noticed who was at the top of the league. And just for some context, so Derek did the defensive success rate. The offensive success rate against the Texans using play action is 32.2%. The EPA per drop back is negative 0.49. so just to put that into a little bit of perspective when teams use play action against the texans they are jj mccarthy they're not any better when they don't play action really like they are they're it's they're an incredible football team dude yeah i'm excited about this one and and the beyond like the x's and o's element of that defense going against that offense dave if the texans win this game and the colts lose this game shit starts getting pretty interesting for what the final like two months of the season are going to look like we sort of box six weeks there we we balked at derrick saying that the afc south could be up for grabs a week or two ago and i mean i was gonna say that was maybe me framing it as a jags thing and not a texans thing or like a wide open in general but still the jags are right on their heels and if the texans manage to win this game then it's a free-for-all over the last yeah five six weeks of the season And one more thing I wanted to say, I'm going to do my annoying special teams bit, but I think it, I really think it matters here.

12:20Tommy Townsend is on a heater. The last couple of weeks I'm, I'm dead serious. I know you are. That's why it's funny. This is incredible. Tommy Townsend was a, he was an all pro when he punted for the chiefs. He's good at his job. He has 19 punts downed inside the opposing 20 this year, which is tied for fourth in the league. eight of those have happened in the Texans last two games. And maybe that's overrated for a lot of teams, but when you have this pass rush, yeah. Downing the ball in the opposing 20 is a big deal. Like a against Daniel Jones. Yeah. Like a, a you're just forcing the team, your opponent to March that much further against such a good defense, but you also create the potential for game swinging plays.

13:10I mean, they got a fumble on the bills in their own red zone last week. So, and we've referenced the play they made against Sam Darnold in that Seattle game. Like Daniel Jones penned on his own eight against the Neil Hunter and Will Anderson is not where the Indianapolis Colts want to be. And Tommy Townsend has been doing a remarkable job of putting their opponents in that position over the last couple of weeks. I, for one, I'm excited to see if he can keep it going. All right, before we move on, we're going to take a quick break.

13:42let's get to our next one here. The only other game on the week 13 slate outside of Thanksgiving featuring two teams with winning records. If you wanted to just get a sense of the quality of the games that we're talking about on Sunday and Monday and week in week 13, the bills at the Steelers. Let's start with when the Steelers have the ball in this game against the bills defense, Derek, this is you. What are you looking for with the Steelers offense against Buffalo? I don't really care to make any sort of proclamations about how it's going to go or the quality of either of these two units. But this is going we should appreciate how weird this is going to look.

14:17And what I mean by that is bizarre. It's amazing. The Bills defense is as light as you can get, really. And part of that is like, you know, they've been playing a little bit more dime this year. So it's literally just in terms of the bodies they're putting on the field. But the guys they are putting on the field are lighter. Like they don't have DBs that are very big outside of like, you know, Benford's a little bit taller. But other than that, it's a lot of guys who are a little bit smaller. Their linebackers are not very big. They're defensive tackles. Like I know they drafted Day on Walker, but like otherwise, these are not guys who are like big movie around type of guys.

14:48I really think that contrasted with the Steelers putting big bodies on the field more than just about anybody. They have 349 plays this year with at least two tight ends on the field. That is second most in the league. They have 109 plays with at least three tight ends on the field. Also second most in the league. They have 91 plays with six offensive linemen on the field. That is the third most in the league. And by the way, on all of those plays, Darnell Washington is on the field, who self-reported on a podcast that he is 311 pounds, which is absurd. This is just going to look, in terms of body type, the craziest thing that we've ever seen.

15:27Does the tight end for the Pittsburgh Steelers way more than all but one of the defensive players for the Buffalo Bills? i i think he does yes i feel like he's bigger than all of them yes a ridiculous football player it's incredible i mean just that the stylistic comparison between these two is phenomenal and we've seen this the bills defense has been actively bad defending the run this entire season and so this is one of those games where i said it last week against the bears just line up and run the ball 50 times like that is your path forward in this game when how you were constructed and how the bills are constructed eventually if you get a negative play if you get a penalty whatever those drives get torpedoed that can't happen that's the downside of playing that way but i think i'd like to at least explore that version of the game if i were the pittsburgh's dealers offense well and also honestly against this bill's defense you don't want to be in second and 12 against anybody but if i had to pick like four defenses where i still feel like i could get an explosive run on second and 12 the bills are absolutely one of them but you can still pop one on them and be okay yeah conventional wisdom about second and long runs do not apply to this buffalo bills yes you know those the next gen running charts they show with all the different directions going like 10 million i need that i need jalen warrens looking like christmas lights just all over the place that's what i'm looking for in this game let's get to the other side of the ball bill's offense against the steelers defense this one's on me i said this this week and it's kind of where I've landed on the Steelers and it's where I've landed on the Steelers for the last couple of years.

17:03And to me, the Steelers for the most part are a very easy team to understand every once in a while, the Steelers are going to throw out a bespoke game plan that is catered to whatever team they're playing against. And it's going to look good often when they do that. I mean, because when they throw a change up or curve ball, whatever off-speed pitch analogy you want to use, and they can catch a team and kind of buckle their knees, that's when the pass rush can really take over some of these games. So we watched the way they played against the Bengals two weeks ago, Derek, and I was like, oh, shit.

17:35They're playing all this too high. They're playing all this cloud coverage. They're taking away all the ways the Bengals want to attack you. The Bengals can't run the ball into those looks. And so that little split second of hesitation, when you don't have easy answers against all this man or single high that the Steelers often play, that's enough for the pass rush to consistently get home the way that they did against Pittsburgh. Okay, well now, fast forward a week later, they're back to doing the same old stuff over and over and over again, and Ben Johnston feasted on them the entire game. And so with the Steelers specifically, I come to a very simple and digestible place when it comes to understanding who they are as a defense.

18:17This season, the Pittsburgh Steelers are second in the NFL in EPA per dropback when getting pressure, second. number two in the NFL per next gen stats. When they don't get pressure, they are 25th in EPA per drop back. That's it. If you do not allow the fronts to win the game, you are probably going to be able to throw the ball all over the yard on this team. And so that's where I land with this. Are the bills going to do enough? If Spencer Brown doesn't play, which I assume he won't, he left last game in a sling. And again, it's early in the week. We don't have a lot of updated injury stuff. We're doing this on Wednesday, but if you can give Ryan Vandermark the correct amount of help and you can keep some heavier bodies in, and we can get into some two and three man routes often off play action.

19:05I just don't think even with the bills offense struggling, they're going to have the right answers for you in this sort of game. If you don't want the front beach, you the, they will, the Steelers defense is going to struggle. To me, it's like a very simple thing. And I think this to me is why, So Dalton Kincaid is still questionable this week. I think if they get him back, that is massive for them. I agree. Because what we talked about last week with why Ben Johnson was able to kind of do what he wanted is because Ben Johnson and the Bears offense, they're willing to get under center. They're willing to bring some heavier bodies, you know, play 12 personnel.

19:36But they're also they can like bail back out of it and go back to more of a drop back team. Like they can just because they can always oscillate and kind of be different things. I think the Steelers defense has an inclination to be a little bit more vanilla when that happens. the bills offense when they have all their guys can actually be that sort of variety they can run the ball they can get into 13 personnel do all this stuff and i think that the steelers kind of go back to like we're just gonna sit in base cover three and hope that it works out for us it's a fun angle about the the ability of nfl coaching because if you watched the bills texans game it would be easy to just be like uh without spencer brown i mean they're they were just they They were hopeless and the Steelers obviously have a front that could do that to them again.

20:19But with a long weekend and like with 10 days to get ready to do this again, I would bet the bills are going to have an approach that'll help mitigate that. And I'm, I'm very interested to see what it is. Yeah. They chipped, uh, well, when I understand it about 19 % of dropbacks last week, especially less than his league, than his like season average, he's been up near the top of the NFL, like in the top five, uh, just South of like the miles Garrett, TJ watt tier for most of the season, but they chipped Neil Hunter on about 7 % of dropbacks last week and you felt it. Right. And so I think them consciously in the bills are in a situation where, and I understand this when you've been able to play for so long, being able to keep your guys on islands and not struggle because of the quality of your tackle play, you don't automatically go to a place of like, Oh, we need to really make sure that we're building this game plan around helping out the tackles and pass protection.

21:14And it's hard to change that midstream. Like if that's not something you planned on doing all week, suddenly going to all these plays where you're getting four hands on defensive ends, it's not an easy switch to flip. So I think that I'm with Dave. We're now knowing going in, we're going to have to make sure that we're not letting TJ Watt beat us this week. I think, and because we have a backup right tackle, I actually think that might be a good thing at the end of the day, even if you're having to deal with a backup in that spot. Let's get to our last single game that we're going to dig into here.

21:44The Niners at the Browns. We really wanted to talk about this game mostly just because we want to talk about the 49ers offense against the Browns defense. Like that's let's be transparent about why this is the third game. Dave, you handled this side of the ball, a matchup between two pretty compelling units. What is the number one thing you're looking for with the 49ers offense against the Browns defense in this one? I'm going to lay all my cards on the table here. This is a highly intriguing matchup in terms of what's on the field, but I don't think there's that much at stake here in the sense that the Browns are clearly working through a bad season.

22:25They're jockeying for draft position. The 49ers have a 90 % chance of making the playoffs, but only a 7 % chance of winning the division. So every result in the NFL matters, but the stakes don't feel that high to me. And so what I am looking at here specifically, I am very invested in Miles Garrett chasing the sack record. He had three last week. He's at 18. He needs 20. He needs to be 22 and a half. And how many coaches would you rather see try to pitch a shutout on an elite rusher than Kyle Shanahan? Like he is on a very short list of guys who are going to like, I just think he's going to have the coolest game plan imaginable to shut miles Garrett out.

23:14And I think he could, he, he conceivably could do it. I mean, the 49ers lead the league in short routes thrown this year. They, they throw between zero and nine yards more than anybody else in the NFL. They're seventh in success rate. When they do it, they lead the league in targets to receivers that are coming out of the backfield. not surprising given the season that Christian McCaffrey is having. They run 55 % multiple tight end or multiple running back sets like between 21, 22 and 12 personnel. That's almost 60 % of their offense right there. So there's a shitload of options for chipping and helping and giving, giving guys help with miles Garrett.

23:53They have one of the better quick pressure percentages in the league too. So like, they're not just getting dissolved right away on a very regular basis. they snap the ball faster than almost anybody in the NFL. They snap the ball with an average of 10 seconds left on the play clock, which is fourth highest in the NFL. So you, you're not going to have to give Miles Garrett a lot of opportunity to like guess at the snap or, or try to jump the snap and, and like, yeah, and they, they chip a shit ton. And on top of that, this, you know, just watching the 49ers, how much they do with misdirection and just trying to get the defense flowing one way and put the ball the other way.

24:33I'm so curious to see if Kyle Shanahan can call a game that shuts out miles Garrett. And I actually, it's funny that we bring up the Steelers. I went back and watched the Steelers Browns game in week six and the shit the Steelers were doing to just frustrate and not give miles Garrett a chance to take over that game. I mean, they had tight ends all the time. It's really, it's really nice when Darnell Washington can be the guy who's chipping miles Garrett, by the way, but I just, I can't wait to see Kyle Shanahan's game plan. Like it's, it's like a pitcher's duel to see if he can keep miles Garrett out of the box score.

25:12That is the most interesting thing to me. And like, there's more to it than that. I know the Browns run a ton of man. The Niners are good against man coverage. What Kyle Shanahan sees going against Carson Swessinger is interesting as well. But for me, I just want to see how the Niners finagle everything to try to keep Miles Garrett away from the football. And I bet he'll be pretty successful if I had to guess. That's an intriguing layer to it. And then the other, you mentioned the other one that like would interest me is like the man coverage stuff is it's so funny because, you know, for years, the Niners just didn't face a lot of man coverage.

25:49And I remember asking defensive coordinators about this, like, why don't you play a lot of man against the Niners? And there were a lot of reasons. And some of it was just like all the motion, all the bunches, all the condensed formations. It's like you just are dealing with a lot of traffic. And then it's also just matchup questions. Like if you feel like you're at a disadvantage in four of the five matchups against individual receivers, it's a dangerous place to live to play a lot of man coverage. Well, then last year, the Niners offensive structure wasn't that much different and they still had some decent pieces in the passing game, but Christian McCaffrey didn't play.

26:26So last season, the only last season, the Niners, I think saw the ninth highest rate of man coverage in the NFL without Christian McCaffrey out there for the entire year. This year they're back at 31st. They're back at there. Only the dolphins are seeing less man coverage than the Niners. And so I do wonder Derek, like how much of this was just driven by teams being afraid of playing a bunch of man coverage with Christian McCaffrey on the field. Because of course you would be. He's, he's terrifying. Like he's, he is one of the most like you just you can truly run the offense through him in a way that you really can't with almost any other running back and I know that like run game wise obviously the Eagles did with like Saquon Barkley but in terms of truly making him like a three down everything is about this player Christian McCaffrey is kind of unique in that way and so we talked about it like there they got different coverages because nobody was scared of checking it down to Jordan Mason or whoever it was in the same way that you are terrified if Christian McCaffrey is going to be out there running one-on-ones against your guys and it's not just out of the backfield it's that like they can line him up in the slot and teams don't want to have you know one-on-one with a safety or a linebacker against him and so I think him being back and him playing as well as he has this year despite the insane volume has been absolutely huge for them the one other thing I want to say about this game we have to talk about the quarterback situation Brock Purdy is not healthy like I I am terrified about what he's going to look like against this uh Browns front Because obviously I actually do kind of like you were saying, Dave, have a good amount of faith that that Kyle's going to have a decent game plan against Miles Garrett.

28:00The problem is that the rest of the Browns front is also very good. And if Brock Purdy is not going to be able to move, I just kind of wonder what that's what that's going to look like and how bad that might unravel. I have a question specifically about doing this against the Browns, because last this week against the Panthers, a lot of those throws that end up becoming turnovers or a rye. he's throwing the ball into voids and zones and his inability to drive the ball into those spaces led to a lot of the turnovers and just like the down moments for the Niners over the course of that game with a team playing against a lot of man coverage it almost feels like it's better because you're not having to drive the ball into space it's more about accuracy and touch on some of those throws into tight windows.

28:45And so that might seem counterintuitive, but I actually think it might lessen the chance for like catastrophic moments, the likes of which we saw on Monday night. It might have less catastrophic moments, but I also still I just don't think his accuracy in general is very good right now. It's good enough for that to matter. Yeah, right. Exactly. And so I think you add that on top of and I think even if he might have less moments of like driving the ball and he's a few miles per hour slow and so he can't drive it in there he still had some other catastrophic moments just like getting outside of the pocket and throwing up balls that he shouldn't or the interception he threw I think where it gets caught on the goal line too I think he's trying to throw to Ricky Pearsall that's not a like the ball is is like slow and he can't drive it that was just a like why are you throwing that ball type of decision and so I think he's still you know maybe prone to some of those with the pass right that one if he lays that out in like deeper into the end zone and further outside.

29:40I do think that ball could be played. Maybe not. And again, that's a situation where it's zone coverage, but it kind of turns into man coverage in that moment, deeper down the field. And the receivers are stable or the defenders are stable to undercut it because he can't put enough juice on the ball. Fun wrinkle. The weather's pretty gross in the Midwest this weekend, heading into the holiday weekend. Sounds tough for you guys. Yeah. Shout out Miami. Great place to have family. Um, I don't, it doesn't sound like it's going to be like snowing in Cleveland on Sunday, but I do think it's going to be cold and windy.

30:16I mean, the stadium's on Lake Erie, go figure in late November, it's going to be cold and windy. So if he already can't drive the ball very well, that is, um, that's a troubling development. And I'm guessing Kyle Shanahan's second gap, second half game plan from Monday night of not letting Brock throw more than seven yards downfield might, might be alive and well against Cleveland too. Let's get to the other side of the ball. I'm taking care of Brown's offense against the Niners defense. Let's talk about the Shadur Sanders element of this and why it's probably worth the Niner, the Browns continuing to play him as their starter.

30:52Shadur Sanders made like, this is maybe harsh to say he made like zero impactful throws from the pocket against the Raiders last week. Like the two big throws he made down the field were both plays made outside of the pocket. Then the screen they threw for a touchdown. Like that was a vast majority of the passing production. And so down to down, it's still gonna look pretty ugly for this Browns passing game right now. But the very fact that he could make that play he made down the field to Isaiah Bond outside of the pocket is enough to justify him continuing to get these opportunities because it's going to look bad from the pocket no matter who's playing out there.

31:37So the theoretical upside and the playmaking that he can provide you that Dylan Gabriel couldn't, I think is enough to warrant another look at him. And so that's kind of where I sit with this just from an overall like philosophical perspective on like why he should or should not play. Even if down to down, he had a 25 and a half percent success rate last week. that's pretty much where I'm at like I struggle with him being good long term I even struggle with the idea that he can do something like that consistently because I don't think in college that was something he did a lot but Dylan he's not a good athlete right but Dylan Gabriel has done none of that yes he is more physically talented than Dylan Gabriel even if he's not an overwhelming physical talent Shador Sanders he's definitely more physically talented than Dylan Gabriel is right so he is at least clearing the bar of the guy he is competing with for the job which like at this at this point in the season when we have a lot of evidence that like because like for as many times as we've brought up like the jj mccarthy numbers and stuff the guy ahead of him on all of those is dylan gabriel every time like one spot ahead it's always dylan gabriel and so at this point in the season when you're kind of lost it's like you might as well just let sanders kind of play it out two like bigger picture structure things as they relate to the Browns offense.

32:50The Browns have been horrendous this year when blitzed. And if you go back and you watch that Raiders game, it's not a surprise. Like the amount of free runners he was having to deal with, even on that throw down the field to Isaiah Bond, the reason that he has to bail from the pocket on that play is there's a free runner in the B gap and he's got to extend it. And so even if the Niners are not a big blitz team, I would at least think about trying to heat him up a little bit in this game because the Browns all season have had very few answers when teams have tried to do that to him. So that's one element of it.

33:20Even when they don't blitz, I think the biggest factor of this with the Browns passing against the Niners defense, you saw it all game last week, even when the Raiders weren't blitzing, they were using a ton of stunts and twists. And part of the reason that I think that's really effective against a quarterback like Shadur Sanders is that if you're stunting the defensive end on the right side inside, and you're looping the defensive tackle back around. What Shadour immediately thinks in that moment is, oh, there is space for me to escape the pocket. You're giving me space for me to either drift or either truly just escape immediately to my left.

34:00And then that space gets closed immediately. Against scrambling quarterbacks that don't want to sit there in the pocket, not scrambling, but guys who have bad drifting habits or just bad pocket habits, you can set traps for them by using a lot of twists and stunts. Teams used to do this to Russell Wilson a lot, where they would vacate space, they would trick him into moving, and then that space would be closed immediately. Well, guess who stunts their front at the second highest rate in the entire NFL? It's the San Francisco 49ers. And so I think trying to get him to a place where you're giving him those little windows and then immediately taking them away and playing into Shador's worst impulses, which is when he's drifting and bailing out of the pocket, that to me becomes the most important factor of this game on that side of the ball.

34:46I'm very intrigued by the idea of, and I thought it was even with, even with Shadur making his first career start and knowing that it looked bad against Baltimore, I was a little surprised that the Raiders were favored in that game because that is how bad the Las Vegas Raiders have been to me. Like I, it was not surprising to me at all to, to see the Browns win that game. And this is, this is interesting because statistically, and if you break everything down, obviously the Niners are banged up. Their defense is not all that good, but it is still an NFL defense with a guy like Robert Sala calling it.

35:26And more importantly than that, the 49ers offense, even against Cleveland should be capable of scoring some points. So what does this look like against a functioning NFL team is what I'm asking basically, because at this point the Raiders are not exactly that. Exactly. And I do think that is why it might look a little bit uglier when it comes to the final result against the team that is actually a real team like the Niners are. All right, before we move on, we're going to take one more quick break.

35:55This is a game for the Niners where I think all they have to do to win it. Speaking of that is just not step on the rake. Like that is the goal for the Niners in this game. And I actually think there are several more of those games on the week 13 slate that we wanted to run through here just pretty quickly. Jags at Titans, Cardinals at Bucs, Raiders at Chargers are three games with teams that are fighting to be playoff teams, fighting to be wildcard teams, going against teams they should be. So all you got to do here in week 13, if you're the Jags, Bucs, and Chargers, is not step on the rake. So we're going to point out those rakes on the ground for these three teams, just so they're aware of them before this game happens.

36:34Let's start with the Jags at Titans, Derek. What is the rake that the Jaguars cannot step on in this game? Just don't get your ass kicked by this defensive line like they. I know the Titans defense has not been great this year, but like their front can kind of still kick your ass like Jeffrey Simmons is awesome. Arden Key can move people to Vondra Sweat when he's been healthy this year, like they can command the line of scrimmage. And this Jaguars offensive line, they've had their moments, but you can bully them. You can push them around. You could get a hand in their chest and drive them into the quarterback.

37:05I'm mildly scared that that could happen this week. Yeah, we've seen that with teams that are a little bit bigger and more physical up front. Like, I mean, obviously the Seattle game is burned into my brain, but that's the type of bodies. I mean, think about it. It's the same system, right? Like they've sought out the same types of bodies. And so that that game is in the back of my mind as I think about like the worst version of this thing for the Jags. Dave Cardinals at Bucks. What is the one rake that the Bucks cannot step on in this game against the Cardinals? I hate to submarine your point here, Robert, because it's a good idea for a segment on a bad week, but the rake for the Bucks is thinking of the Cardinals as a rake.

37:48That is the problem. I like that. Look at it. I like this egg. That is, that is the problem for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers because I'm the Bucks guy on this podcast. I'm here to sadly say, I don't think you can classify this as a trap game. I know what the records look like, but the bucks better not approach it that way. I knew the three games we were going to preview here. So I looked it up. If you go by DVOA, the different total DVOA offense and defense, the difference between the Jags and the Titans is 36 percentage points, which is the equivalent of 20 spots in the league order. So the Jags are 12th in overall DVOA.

38:28The Titans are dead last. The LA chargers are 16th in overall DVOA. The Vegas Raiders are 31st. That is a gap of 32 percentage points. These are true mismatches. The difference between the bucks and the Cardinals is nine points. Like this is the 15th overall team in DVOA verse 21. the Arizona Cardinals are maybe not a good team, but they are not a shit team. And if you remember, go back through their season, they lost three games in a row as time expired back at the beginning of the season. The, the Niners game, the Seahawks game, the Titans, the silly Titans game, they lose on a turn. They lose back to back games on within the final minute against Indianapolis and green Bay, where they were driving to win and turn the ball over on downs inside the final minute.

39:23And then last week they take the Jags to overtime and I get it. Like the, the result counts. This is the NFL. Every, every game is a coin flip result, but the Cardinals are not a bad team. And so my advice to the bucks is snap out of that mindset. If you're in it right now, or you're going to be in some trouble. Don't let Jacoby Brissett beat you. like don't don't let Jacoby Brissett be the reason why you're sitting there at 500 wondering what the hell happened, especially with Todd Bowles acumen as a defensive play caller. And I mean, I know what the Rams did to him, but that's the best team in football.

39:59The Cardinals are not that just do not let the backup quarterback be the reason you're sitting there wondering if you're going to miss the playoffs. That's my advice to the Bucks. I don't disagree with any of this, and I would not be surprised that the Cardinals won this game. Here's the frustrating part about this. Who gives a shit, right? If the Bucs like lose this game and go to six and six and then, and the Panthers get destroyed by the Rams on Sunday, it like, I guess the only real stakes there is that we just get to write the Bucs off as even like a team worth paying attention to in the playoffs.

40:32But for the most part, even if the Bucs were to lose this game and have a disappointing final six or seven weeks of the season, they are most likely still going to win the NFC South and make the playoffs. Unfortunately, I wish the Panthers were in a better position to make the Bucks pay for losing a game like this. It just doesn't feel like they are right now. That's that's fair. But you're right. Like if they don't if they can't win this game at home, then then it's like sim to the end and like, OK, who's going to come into Raymond James as the five seed and beat you in the playoffs? Whereas I would rather, Oh, I guess it'd be the five seed.

41:08I was going to say the funniest thing is it'd be the Eagles and they would somehow beat them. Oh my God. Well, I mean the Eagles in Tampa, you'd never take anything for granted, but I, I want more for the bucks. I want the bucks to be at least dangerous, if not a contender. And we'll see, I mean, you know, Baker's dealing with the shoulder injury. We'll see what that looks like. Bucky Irving might be back for this game. So there's, there's reason to think the bucks could win this game, convincingly, but I, I hope they're not taking the Cardinals lightly. That would be a mistake in my opinion. Last one here.

41:42Raiders at chargers, the rake that chargers can't step on is don't let a bad front beat you. Like, please, please do not let a bad chart, like Raiders front be the reason that they are in this game. The Raiders are bottom five and pressure rate when bringing forward this year per next gen. If I'm the chargers, I'm getting four hands on max the whole game. I am not letting him make those two or three plays that can swing this thing. You are the better team top to bottom by far. Let's keep the quarterback pressured on like less than 35 % of his dropbacks. And let's get out of here with like a 24, 13 win that none of us ever have to think about again.

42:21Is that too much to ask? That's a great way to frame it. Play a game that nobody has to think about for the rest of the season. That's it. As I, I mean, I'm open about this. As I look at the Sunday slate, as we're trying to figure out what we want to talk about on the review shows, on the recap shows, there are games every single week where it's like, all I want to do is not know that game happened. And Raiders chargers this week is precisely that sort of game. I don't want to be sitting there in early in the fourth quarter of Ravens chargers, Raiders, and Bell are sitting over there being like, man, chargers, what the we're getting there.

42:55It's like, God damn it. Like I just, I, all I wanted to do was pretend that game wasn't happening. And that's all I ask of you. If you are the Los Angeles chargers in this game, it's amazing. Last one. And I almost didn't want to do this because Derek has been so emphatic about wanting to put in the embargo, but we have to talk about it for like two minutes. Sam Donald is playing against the Vikings this week. And so it is possible. If Sam like goes off against the Vikings defense, that it can still get worse for the Vikings. even if that seemed like there was no way it could happen. So I want to at least acknowledge that that game and that matchup is happening this week.

43:35And it is something that we should keep in mind when we consider like the emotional well-being of every Vikings fan that we know. The only way it could be worse is if this was in Minneapolis. It's in Seattle. So at least you can like watch from a distance and you don't have to see him do it at his potentially do it at his own at his old home field. that would be crazy if he got to do it in minnesota that would be tough the only thing i want to say about this game is i do think we are primed for like for better or for worse an insane sam darnold game the vikings are back to blitzing 55 of the time over the last month sam is either going to throw for like 450 or throw three picks again and i don't know what we're gonna get i wanted to be very clear that him playing well and the vikings feeling bad about it it is not an inevitability like there it is absolutely possible for this to go poorly and for vikings fans the best possible outcome in this game if you're a vikings fan i'm not even going to consider like brasmer playing well enough for you to feel good about it honestly if he does play well it would make you feel even worse because that's that's valid so i i don't even that part of it like the quality of play from the offense i'm taking that off the table for like the best possible outcome in this game The best possible outcome in this game is that Sam plays poorly enough that you feel like very good about.

44:59All right. You know what? Even if we made the wrong decision, we did not pass on like an MVP of the league or like one of the best quarterbacks in the league. Like we still let a guy go that can struggle. And then let's compound that with the Colts playing against the Texans this week. If you're a Vikings fan, the best thing that can happen to you is for Sam Darnold and Daniel Jones to play very poorly against the best two defenses in the league. It's a small silver lining for you this season. They just play terrible games and the Vikings eke out a win or just look respectable in a close loss.

45:34Okay. And you don't have to care about it, Robert, and that's fine. But I just I got to shout it out. I got a real soft spot in my heart for when, especially like an undrafted guy or like a late drafted guy gets a shot. I don't have high expectations for Max Brosmer, but I'm excited to watch stuff like this. Like every time this happens, there's, there's only two outcomes and they're both good for me as the football fan. This could either be the beginning of a crazy fairytale journey. And I'll say this, if Max Brosmer plays well, That is a bummer for Vikings fans in the short term. If he were to keep playing well, that is an incredible story.

46:17And Vikings fans won't feel bad about it for very long. Do I expect that to happen? No. But the other side of this is if Max Brosmer plays and plays a very normal game for an undrafted rookie quarterback, then that goes into the pantheon of remember some guys. And that's my favorite thing of all is like six years from now when we're sitting around and we're like, oh, shit, man. Remember the Max Brosmer game against the Seahawks? And you're like, oh, man, that was crazy. Like Joe Webb to just keep it Vikings related. Everybody remembers Joe Webb for the same reason. I mean, shoot. Tommy DeVito a couple years ago.

46:57Cooper Rush launched his career as a viable NFL quarterback against the Minnesota Vikings. So like even even if this isn't going in like a Brock Purdy direction, I'm still invested in what it looks like. Dave, I love your optimism because he is clearly being sacrificed to Demarcus Lawrence and Boyamafe and Byron Murphy. Like this is this is this could be bad. You're probably right. But who knows, man? That's why we play the games. And like I said, even if it goes poorly, then five years from now, when I'm talking ball with y 'all, I can just be like, ah, Max Brosmer. I wonder what he's up to. Here's my issue with this is that I didn't get my 25 point performance from the Seahawks defense and fantasy last week against the Titans.

47:44And I need it. I need it. Like, I'm still hungry for it. And if that doesn't happen this week, I'm going to be at least a little bit disappointed. This is one more dump. No, I have to do it. I'm sorry. one more super dumb thing. Apparently Max Brosmer is the first quarterback from the university of Minnesota to ever start in an NFL game. If he plays, we don't even know if that's going to happen officially. That is, isn't that nuts? Really? Like Minnesota has been playing football forever. And back in the day, they were a powerhouse. Like they won national titles all the time back in like the old days of football.

48:18So for this to be the first time that that would happen is insane to me. And I just, I wanted to share it with people. Man, the Minnesota Golden Gophers somehow entering the level of quarterback futility only enjoyed by teams like the Chicago Bears and Cleveland Browns. It's impressive. All right. That is all we've got for today. We will be back on Sunday night. Be back in the studio. Be back to regularly scheduled programming. Looking forward to that for now. Enjoy the Black Friday game today. If you're listening to this on Friday morning, Enjoy the Sunday games if that game has already happened.

48:57Enjoy your weekend and we will be back to you on Sunday. Appreciate you guys listening.