Week 14 Preview: Bears-Packers finally means something again

0:28Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. Colts season kind of hanging in the balance in a way that would have been impossible to imagine a month ago. Hit one thing from Bills, Bengals, and Texans Chiefs. The Chiefs, another team, staring down their playoff lives this week. Talked about the Eagles offense on a little under the hood, and then a few more things from a loaded Week 14 slate with me, Derek Klassen, and Dave Hellman. Let's get to it right now.

0:57it's the week 14 preview here on the athletic football show we got a doozy on our hands on a bunch of different levels several very important very good games to dig into uh on this slate we've got games that typically would be game of the week treatment type of games that aren't for one reason or another but checks and chiefs coming a little bit later bangles bills coming a little later in one thing. We've got a massive game in the AFC South, but come on, we could only start this in one spot. It actually makes sense to start it here for a change, which is why I'm so excited about Bears Packers.

1:32I think if you're a football fan, you love this rivalry for all of the cliche reasons like Soldier Field and Lambeau Field and like all the legends from the days gone by. But like, let's be honest. With HDTV, in the era of HDTV, this is a rivalry that's like lacking in juice in terms of like back and forth and games with high stakes. Well, we got it now. We actually have a Bears Packers game where both teams are good. Both teams are playing for something meaningful. And if you're in our age range, that hasn't been the norm for a while. the last Bears Packers game with snow on the ground that actually mattered was in 2013 at the end of the regular season that's a great way to put it because some some of these games have a lot of juice in September or October I just remember like the 2018 season opener obviously after the Clumac trade like there are moments that mattered early in the season between these two teams but it's been a long time since a game this late in the season mattered between the Bears and the Packers I mean Bellar how many we've never had a Bears game be a game of the week since we started doing this podcast ever.

2:40I don't even know what it would have been. I don't even think we've had like a production meeting where it's been a consideration. Like, oh, Bears, Packers, Bears, Vikings. Like we haven't even had a discussion about it. So we are fully there and having this game actually matter. And what's been really fun for me is watching the rivalry get that juice back in a couple of different ways. Obviously, it starts this offseason when Ben Johnson does something totally out of pocket and like says Matt LaFleur's name in his introductory press conference, to which my initial response was, well, they must be friends.

3:10And then after learning that they weren't, that takes on a life of its own. Matt LaFleur takes a shot at Ben Johnson a little bit later in the spring when he's on the Pat McAfee show. And so you've got this weird tension between the coaches. And Derek, what I've really enjoyed over the last couple of weeks as the Bears have kind of pushed themselves to relevance when you're at nine and three, even if people don't respect you, and I think the six and a half point line here, which is what it is, would lead you to believe that there's still a lack of acknowledgement that this is a good team. And I understand that.

3:40But I feel like because they've kind of thrust themselves into the conversation, I'm watching Packers fans get annoyed again at the fact that they have to deal with Bears fans. Like they're swatting them away and just like, come on now, I hate the fact that I have to acknowledge you anymore because you're getting loud again. I've enjoyed the tension that has been created between the fan bases online that hasn't really existed in this sort of way for a long time. Yeah, if we're just talking about the last like 15 years of NFC North football, The Bears are like little brother, like they've had worse stretches than any of these teams.

4:12Like even the Vikings have had peaks, the Lions, obviously, over the last three, four years. And then the Packers, for the most part, over that stretch have run the division. And this is the first time the Bears have, I think, had a legitimate chance. Obviously, they've had other decent teams, but even like the Trubisky year, 2018 or whatever it was, that was like the end of when the Packers Rogers thing was falling apart. So that didn't really feel like it had any juice. Like this is the first time where you get a Packers team that feels like a really good Packers team. And I know they had some weird moments earlier in the year, but like they are.

4:40If I'm picking a team that's not the Rams to come out of the NFC, it's the Packers pretty, pretty comfortably to me. And so the fact that they get to go play the Bears team now that is technically leading the NFC actually and would be the number one seed out of the NFC is a really cool place to be. You got to add the layer in on that point you made about the chatter, too, because the meme for three years now has been Bears fans talk a lot from April to July, like a lot. Off season champions, all that good stuff. And they haven't done anything officially yet. No idea where this is going to go. But Bears fans having something to chat about in December is new and fun.

5:18I've enjoyed it. And then Packers fans are just like, well, Caleb Williams still sucks. Like Caleb Williams is still inaccurate. He's still a problem. And like, whether you believe that or not, it doesn't really matter to me. I just enjoy the fact that there has been there have been some shots across the bow recently in ways there have not been over the last few years. And I think that is a fun place to be if you care about these teams. So let's start with when the Bears have the ball in this game. Derek, what is the number one thing you've got your eye on when the Bears are on offense on Sunday?

5:46I think there's a couple of things last week. Obviously, what we've seen over the last like four or five weeks, really, with this Bears offense is that they can run the ball on just about anybody and they can really start to move people. And so I think this is a Packers front that in some respects can defend the run really well. And I think part of why they typically defend the run really was their second level and third level fitters are incredible. Like their linebackers are awesome. They really weaponize Evan Williams, not just like him fitting the alley, like from depth and stuff, but they'll spin him down into the into the box late rotation as a player like that.

6:18And he's an incredible run fitter. So I think they defend the run well there, which I think to that point for the Packers, it's like, OK, if we can hold on and if we can limit some of the explosives that the Bears have found in the run game, we should make Caleb Williams beat us. And I think the Packers actually have done a really good job of playing like top down in their coverage and really driving on routes, closing windows, getting explosive plays in the passing game, like breakups, interceptions, stuff like that. And so I think making Caleb beat you and not giving up the explosive runs, not giving them free first downs.

6:48It's kind of how they win this game. The second and third level guys is a great point. Cause that's one of the first things you notice when you watch this team is the mentality that the linebackers and safeties play with, but also the quality of run defense that you're getting from those guys. This team right now, per next gen stats, Green Bay has the lowest missed tackle rate in the NFL. And that 100 % matches with the eye test when you watch them play. And then it goes a little bit further. They can defend the run out of some different looks because of what you're getting from these guys. The Packers this season have the sixth best run defense success rate out of two high shells.

7:22They have the best EPA per rush allowed while playing in light boxes. And I think that speaks to what you're getting from some of the safeties. And so this will be a question of, can the Bears grind them down if they're going to play in some of those light boxes? And what does that look like? The other wrinkle on this, when it comes to how the Packers might play this, so the Packers play base defense to 12 personnel pretty consistently. So if the Bears want to run the ball with two tight ends on the field, the Packers have been great at stopping those runs and they match it with bigger bodies.

7:51The Packers, when you watch what they did against the Lions last week, who are also a pretty heavy personnel team. When they had three linebackers on the field, they had one of those linebackers walk down onto the line of scrimmage. And if you're trying to find a through line for the Bears between the games where the rushing game was really effective and where they stalled a little bit, teams that play a decent amount of five-man fronts have given them some trouble, even as the ground game has found its footing post-bye. The teams that play a ton of five-man fronts that they'd not run the ball that effectively against, Steelers, Vikings, Ravens.

8:20And the Packers will do this when they have three linebackers on the field. So I'm wondering how often do we see one of those guys walked up? Because if you're taking away double teams from this Bears offensive line on the ground, you do take away a lot of their potency. And so that's one area that I'm a little bit curious about as we're looking forward to this. That's a really fun point because and the Black Friday game is so fresh in our minds because it was the Bears most recent game. But the the way that the interior of the Bears offensive line kicked ass that day was just extremely fun to watch and watching how the Packers manage that, how they change the numbers and potentially make life more difficult on them.

9:00That's that's a very fun wrinkle. One thing to keep in mind, just with the fronts playing against one of their Devontae Wyatt is going to be is not playing in this game, had a severe ankle injury last week. I thought he was really good against the Lions last week. And so that's one more big body presence in the middle of your defense that's not going to be playing in this game. And I do think that's something to keep an eye on. And he's the only one who gets into the backfield. Like they have some other decent defensive linemen. Like I think Wooden is a good player in terms of just sitting on his spot and eating double teams at times.

9:27But he's not really an explosive player who gets into the backfield. Whereas Wyatt, I think even if he's a little bit more volatile, can give that to you. I do think the front thing is a really good point too because I think the reason teams have had some success against the Bears with some of these five-man fronts is, again, it just you get more bodies. That's what we talked about with the Rams like seven years ago when Fangio was like putting five and six guys on the line. You just don't really let the zone holes kind of dictate themselves as the play goes on because you just have a guy in every hole as soon as the play is starting.

9:56And so what you want to get against some of these five-man fronts is we want to get down blocks on those three techniques and like move somebody out of the way, get a puller. I do think Ben Johnson has that in his bag, but I think he's just much more of a zone running guy than people think like I think we think of what he was with the Lions and they're like oh well they had these big offensive linemen they had these guards they could move of course they were pulling all the time but he's actually really always been like a pretty zone heavy guy and it's certainly been the case with Chicago in terms of the passing game a couple things I'm keeping an eye on the Packers when they're in nickel looks they play a ton of cloud coverages that is like a staple of this of this defense they are doing at the third highest rate in the league, which is a combination of cover two and cover six.

10:35And it's about 33 % of their snaps. The Bears have struggled against those looks this year. They're 24th in success rate. They're dead last in the percentage of their plays that go for zero or negative yards against cloud coverages. You think back to what the Bears did against the Vikings. We talked about this in the hangover, Derek. They have all these kind of designery plays where they're trying to get guys in the hook area right behind the linebackers. The Packers did struggle on plays like that against the Lions. That's one area where you can get McDuffie a little bit. He's good moving forward, but if you're trying to throw the ball behind him, you can get some of those.

11:09So that's one area. And then the other one in base, the Packers are very good at defending the run. So if you're going to try to, or defending the pass. So if you are going to try to throw the ball at a 12 personnel, they're very good at that. The one thing that does, if you get them in base defense, the coverage menu shrinks. So they play about 67 % single high Green Bay does while playing base, which is drastically higher than when playing nickel. So at least you know what you're going to be getting from a coverage perspective a little bit more often if you get them in those looks, even if compared to the rest of the league, they are good at defending the pass with bigger bodies on the field.

11:43So that's kind of the push and the pull passing game wise that I have an eye on. And the last thing I would note with that, too, is like I do think the seven, eight man protections, let's try to get a deep stop. Let's try to throw a dig route. those like trying to hit the hole zones in the intermediate area behind the linebackers make them play with eyes in the back of their head that's how you beat them because I actually think I I struggle a little bit with the Bears ability to maybe get rollouts in this in this game for a couple of reasons I wouldn't even try it yeah I wouldn't even try it with that guy over there yeah one I don't want to boot against Micah Parsons or even honestly any of the other edge defenders they have those are long and really fast edge defenders that Green Bay has the other part of it is I actually do think when the Packers linebackers just have to whip their head around and run with a crosser they actually are really good at that they're just when they're sitting in zones like playing with the eyes of the back of their head they get a little bit lost don't don't do this to me like we need to see this I need to see Caleb Williams doing boot stuff doing play action against Micah Parsons sorry it could be one of the most entertaining facets of week 14 I don't want the entertainment value I want to keep them as safe as possible yeah Robert wants his quarterback to make it through the season.

12:53Who doesn't want to watch? And we like, we noted it before. You always hesitate with comparisons like this, but Caleb's ability to stay a shoestring ahead of the pursuit is very Mahomesy. And I want to see him do it against Micah Parsons. I don't want to see that. I absolutely do. That is not how I get my kicks. Like that's not where the good adrenaline in my life comes from. I am not a horror movie person. Like getting pushed to that place where I feel uneasy. That's not something I'd like to do. So I want to avoid that at all costs. I think the play actions I want to see in this game are exactly like Derek said, vertical play actions where you're blocking it up and keeping him in the pocket.

13:28One, I think that's a good way to attack this team. Two, I want more bodies in protection, especially with a rookie left tackle starting his third game against Micah Parsons. I want four hands on that guy consistently. And I think getting in some of those heavier looks, not booting out and trying to have it be just from the pocket play action stuff, that's one way that you can do that. I hope you're wrong. Let's get to the other side of the ball here. Derek, the number one thing you got an eye on when the Packers have the ball in this game is what? I just like I'm really bought in on how vertical this passing offense could be again.

14:00Like Christian, God, right? Like we were especially me in full panic mode after the Eagles game. I was like because the Panthers game, I was willing to hand wave some of that away. I was like a couple of weird plays. I think they were probably going to be fine. Maybe Jordan Love just played a weird one. The Eagles game where they did not want to throw down the field and he was just jumping in the pocket. I was like this. This is really concerning. But ever since they've gotten Christian Watson and even to a slightly lesser degree, Dontavian Wicks back in the lineup, like they can just get guys down the field on DB's toes really quickly.

14:32And it's not just that they can run the ball or that they can get these guys on these vertical routes now and they can stretch the field a little bit. But Christian Watson is just making plays down the field, like in contested scenarios in a way that, you know, maybe you got one of those a month in previous years from him where it's like, oh, cool, big play. We got a chunk. Now it feels like something he can kind of tap into every game and consistently. And so the fact that they are a passing offense that wants to be volatile and has a player who can actually make good on some of that from what the quarterback is going to do throwing down the field, it's a pretty cool spot for this team to be in now.

15:04I don't think you can really overstate how important Christian Watson has been to making the offense feel like this because their numbers against man coverage specifically this year, and we'll talk a little bit about that, are very good. That's in part because Tucker Craft still leads the league in EPA per target or I think EPA per route against man coverage. Is that true? Yes. And it's a rate stat. So it's obviously like it's not diminished by the fact that he hasn't played, but he is still number one in EPA per route run against man coverage. The fact that Watson came back essentially as you lost Tucker craft and gave you another option, that's been huge for this team.

15:39And Derek, you mentioned some of the shots downfield and those have been great. And he's essentially good for one explosive, at least a game. Now the crossers they're using him on, they haven't really hit one yet. Like for him to get that, you know, it reminds me of, it reminds me of the way that the lions have used Jameson Williams over the last couple of years, where he's almost as dangerous on some of those crosser yak opportunities as he is down the field. The Packers haven't really hit those. He's open on them. They are going to get one of those very soon. And so even the route running and the nuance from him, besides just the straight gas down the field, I've been really impressed with Christian Watson since he came back.

16:15He looks like the best version of himself that we've ever seen. He really does. And like, I, I love that one hit the vertical element. He brings and wicks brings finally gives them something outside of the numbers because how congested did their offense feel trying to just throw over the middle of the field. and now you add the crossers where it's like you're stretching through the middle of the field as opposed to just like oh there goes our 800th dagger concept trying to hit the dig again it's like they are at least trying to move these pieces around in a way that I'm pretty excited about Matthew Golden and Jaden Reed both practicing ahead of this game a lot of juice just something to watch and it's always tricky predicting who's gonna play this far out but yeah it seems like considering how hopeless it looked when tucker craft went down introducing all of these guys back right as you're getting toward the final month of the season is it's encouraging the other part of this that i think is really worth bringing up is that the quarterback is playing at a really really high level i think that people i have a take on jordan love of course i couldn't wait for you to finish he could not wait for you to stop i couldn't i'm sorry he is the most maligned quarterback in the entire NFL.

17:25Like, I don't understand why people are so hesitant to call him like the seventh best quarterback in the league. He's awesome. It's just like when he has these silly games like the Panthers game, the Eagles game, it looks tough. But like Derek's been biding his time for this moment. Yes, of course I have. And you want the Packers, the Panthers game obviously had took up a lot of oxygen. And then the fact that they played in prime time the week after, I think those games loom large in people's minds. To me, the most impressive thing, the aggressiveness was there against the Lions. It's the accuracy he plays with now.

17:55If you look at it, we don't really talk about him as somebody who has improved accuracy over time because I know that's been a big talking point among Bears and Packers fans this week is Packers fans giving Bears fans shit about how accuracy doesn't improve and that's Caleb Williams is going to be this forever. Jordan Love, if you look at anecdotally and the numbers, he was up near the top of the league in 2023 and like off target rate. Now he's in the bottom five. Like the ball placement has been ridiculous. And against a team like the Lions, it was playing a lot of man coverage. It had to be.

18:24And so that brings me to my question about this game. The Bears defense is outmanned in this game, no matter what number you want to look at. They're 24th in defensive DVOA. They've been one of the worst run defenses in the league. And so I'm wondering stylistically, what does this team look like moving forward? Last week was the first time, essentially all season, you had Kyler Gordon and Jalen Johnson back in the lineup. They switched off. Kyle was playing a lot of outside. They, you know, they were on snap counts, understandably, after taking so much time off. But the Bears, with those guys back in the lineup, having C.J.

18:55Gardner-Johnson now and having the linebackers hurt, they played 45 % dime last week against the Eagles. And so I'm wondering, with Noah Sewell and T.J. Edwards potentially back this week at linebacker, how much of that do we still see? Because even with those guys, I think you can make a really serious argument that the Bears' best 11 players involve dime defense with more DBs on the field. And when you do that, what they did last week is they played a shitload of man coverage. They played like almost 50 % man coverage. That might be an Eagle-specific thing. But Derek, my kind of theory here is that because the pass rush is just bad, even though Austin Booker has been, had some flashes since he came back.

19:37Fun player, fun young player. The pass rush is still bad. So if you're going to be bad on defense, I think I'd rather be volatile and aggressive. And so them being a little bit more dime, using the DBs as blitzers, sending a little bit more heat and just playing a bunch of man coverage behind that. I actually think that's the way I would want to try to play down the stretch if I were this team, because I think it might be their best path to like passable off their passable defense. I don't hate it because the pass rush does stink for the most part. And so if you're not going to have that, let's at least create tight windows.

20:07Maybe we just get a tipped ball that goes up and they magically get their 900th interception this year. so I do understand that I just think that like to me until I see otherwise that felt like a very Eagles specific game plan in the sense of like we can get a dime we're not scared of them running the ball on us which is a weird thing to say about the Eagles offense which we'll get to later but like there's that part of it where I just think they weren't that scared of getting run on and then honestly like this Eagles offense is in a spot right now where they just I think if you just close the windows on them they're not going to make dangerous throws you look at Jordan Love of buddy that's all he wants to do is make dangerous throws against man coverage and he's been really good at it this year like he is I believe sixth or seventh in EPA per drop back against man blitzes this year so like when he's just got a drop back chuck it into a tight window hit his man he's been very good at it and I think now again with Wicks being able to win some of those one-on-ones Watson being able to win some of those one-on-ones I do have a good amount of faith that I think I understand the volatility angle but I also think that this is an offense that you will get the worst of that.

21:08I understand where you're coming from, but I just imagine Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love, like if they were to see that game plan, they would be like, oh no, what will we do here? What could ever we do? There's no good answer. And then they just rip you. That's the problem. There's no good answer. And I think what this does, if you're going to play a lot of man, you also can play single high and load up the box. And so that's another area where if you're devoting more resources to the run, does your run defense get a little bit better? because if you're going to sit back, I know Jordan Love has relatively been worse against like two high coverages this year.

21:41If you're going to sit back in two high coverages with this run defense against a Packers team that they may not be as good as they've been in recent years running the ball, but they're still capable of running the ball on you. And so I think that there are a bunch of different things kind of coming together here. Jordan Love is attempting tight window throws against man coverage at like a top eight rate in the league. There are going to be a couple plays to be made on the ball in this game. Can you make those couple plays? Can you get those swings of volatility once or twice to go your direction because I think you're going to have to because down to down, I think the defense is probably going to struggle.

22:12Save us, Nashawn Wright. Make another insane play. I do. It's funny though. And you're right. I mean, that all makes sense. The Bears lead the league in takeaways, but, and it goes back to what you said about the Panthers game. It's funny to think, like if you watch that game, you're like, oh my God, Jordan Love, stop doing dumb shit. The Packers have the fewest giveaways in the NFL so far this year. Like they take care of the football. Jordan Love has three interceptions on the year. And also, I wanted to say while you were talking about it, his EPA per dropback is more than double against man than it is against zone.

22:43And his success rate is almost 10 points higher against man than it is against zone. So it could be worth a shot. And maybe this is your week and you get a deflection interception or Nashawn Wright makes another highlight reel play. Or maybe Jordan Love just keeps putting the football dead center between his guys' numbers like he was doing against Detroit. and it doesn't matter at all. That might happen. And if you look at the season-long numbers, the Bears are better in zone than they are in man, but they've had no corners the entire year. And so I just think that we're in a different universe in terms of what the Bears defense is going to look like moving forward than what it's been for most of the year.

23:15I still think it's a unit with deficiencies that's going to struggle. I just wonder how they're going to try to paper over some of those deficiencies. Either way, we got a 325 Bears-Packers game with very little else going on in the window. And so I'm sure it's going to be very normal in this studio as we watch that game. I might be paying closer attention to your reactions than the actual gameplay. Like I can just rewatch the game later. I'm just going to be fixated on how you're handling this. Let's get to our next one here. Colts at Jags. The Colts are one and a half point favorites on the road in Jacksonville.

23:47The Jaguars are currently atop the AFC South per the athletics playoff simulator. They have an 83 % chance to make the playoffs. Colts are now at 68%. I mean, why is this a game of the week? I think it's pretty self-evident. Like every game between these teams in the AFC South for the rest of the season is essentially do or die. The Colts and the Jags have two games against each other before this thing wraps up. And it's going to go a very long way in determining who wins this division. How about the mighty AFC South? Like, can we give them some flowers for a sec? We're like much like the NFC South for a lot of the last few years.

24:18It's just like, cool. Put them in the four seed. Nobody gives a shit. Just think about it. The Texans had their it was the Houston Texans invitational. The afternoon game on Saturday and wild card weekend. That was it. And now, I mean, the Titans are awful. We get that. But the three teams in this division above 500, it looks like it's going to be a slobber knocker all the way through the final five weeks. And I know it has nothing to do with this game. It's just a quirky thing that only I find fun. But do you realize the Colts haven't won in Jacksonville since 2014? I don't even know how that's possible.

24:50It shouldn't be. It shouldn't be possible. The Jags have not been world beaters over the last 10 years. You think you could steal one in the past decade? They play like it. They've been better than that team for all but what? Maybe like the 2017 Jaguars year and like 2022 when Doug Peterson got there. Like that's like the Colts have mostly been the better team. So let me just relive this for fun because I want to. 2014. It makes sense. Andrew Colts. Last time the Colts won in Jacksonville, they won 44-17 against the Jags. Andrew Luck threw four touchdowns. I don't think that's terribly shocking if you're just doing the math.

25:26three of the guys who caught those touchdowns were Hakeem Nix, Kobe Flaner, and Dwayne Allen. I mean, Kobe Flaner and Dwayne Allen makes sense. That was like a huge part of their offense of those couple years. The Colts' top two rushers, they split the carries. Ahmad Bradshaw, Trent Richardson. That's what we're talking about here. Reggie Wayne caught four for 62. Reggie Wayne was still playing. And my other favorite ones, Matt Hasselbeck got in for mop-up duty because it was a blowout. Paul Puzlozny was the game's leading tackler, and Leron Landry and Bjorn Werner played for the Colts at the time.

26:02Bjorn Werner. Bjorn Werner. I knew you would appreciate that. It's, and like, you can say until you're blue in the face, like, oh, roster turnover is 30 % every single year, and not for long, but just walking down memory lane and seeing some of those names, I was like, Jesus Christ, how was that a decade ago? It's also, some of these team-on-team stats, oh, this team hasn't beaten that team in 10 years. Well, they play every four years. They play on different conferences. Cross-conference, I don't care. But in your division, to do it every year and to not have won a game there in 11 years is absolutely wild.

26:34All right, I want to start with the Jaguars' offense in this game against the Colts' defense. Because this is a wild place to have reached. But I think we are here. I think Jacoby Myers and Brenton Strange have, like, salvaged the Jaguars' offense. like when you watch their passing game right now, having those two guys with Jacoby Myers, obviously there for the first time and Brenton Strange back from injury, this team has like real juice right now, Derek. And the other thing, it feels reliable in a way that it just wasn't for a good chunk of the season. Like this passing offense in Jacksonville was really struggling.

27:11Over the first nine weeks of the year, they were at like a 41 % passing success rate, which was a bottom five rate in the entire league. with Jacoby Myers on the field over the last few weeks, it is 53.1 % per next gen stats. That would be like right there with the best teams in the league. And so this does have a very different flavor right now. The Jacoby Myers trade has been way more impactful than I think we understood it to be in the moment. Because he's not like a sexy player, right? It's what you said. He's reliable. And it's so, I think why him and Strange have worked so well in this offense is that they just they make everything else fit together and they they complement the quarterback well like Jacoby Myers it's so clear what he does over the middle of the field that Trevor Lawrence trusts him like how much did we talk about the first six or seven weeks of the season where it's like well they don't really run Travis Hunter over the middle of the field and Brian Thomas Jr.

28:05doesn't seem like he wants to run a lot of those routes so they were kind of left to only throwing to strange there but they couldn't really get any of their receivers activated there from the first week that Jacoby Myers was in town, Trevor was like, I'm throwing the digger out slants, whatever it is, Jacoby Myers. And they've been awesome at that. And because of that, it's allowed. We just saw this last week last week. Now that Brian Thomas Jr. is back in the lineup. All he's got to do now is be the outside vertical guy. Give us some stretch. Give us some push in the offense so that we can open up this room for whether it's Jacoby Myers on a digger out.

28:35Maybe it's Brenton Strange underneath. Maybe we're getting Parker Washington, some yak, Like everything about the offense just makes sense now. And so Brian Thomas Jr. kind of being your volatile, let's see if we can get a couple of plays guy, makes more sense when you know you can feed 10, 11 targets to Jacoby Myers. You can feed eight targets to Brenton Strange and get efficient offense that way. Very early in that Titans game, it was a third down and Trevor hit. He hit a dig over like just a beautiful dig over the middle of the field. And I think it was actually Parker Washington, not Jacoby Myers.

29:08but he was just planning. Like he wasn't even making his cut yet and Trevor was throwing. And I was like, ah, I feel like you have a higher degree of trust in what's going on right now. He's playing with excellent anticipation, throwing the ball into voids against zone coverage. And that's why if I were the Colts in this game, I would not allow that to happen. Like I'm just not playing a lot of soft zone against them because you've seen what they were able to do. I mean, some of the explosives they were hitting at Brenton Strange in the Cardinals game. That's the other part. I think there's a trust in what's happening right now.

29:37And I love the fact that you're playing against a Cardinals team that does play a lot of softer zones with air in the coverage. And you're not just trying to bite off little pieces. They were trying to hunt out chunks against those looks. And so if you look at what the Jags have been against zone since Jacoby Myers has gotten there, you feel the comfort level that Trevor is playing with. 0.25 EPA per drop back against zone coverages since Jacoby Myers arrived. That's one of the highest rates in the entire league. negative 0.14 against man coverages over that same stretch. And anecdotally, I think that lines up with the eye test when you're watching this team play.

30:12And so the Colts, even before the Sauce-Gardner trade, I thought this while watching, like, I think, I can't remember which game it was. It was the game before they played Atlanta. And I was just watching them play man, Indianapolis. And I was like, they feel more comfortable playing this way. And so even without Sauce, I think I'm leaning in to a little bit more aggressive man coverage if I'm Indianapolis. and the other part of this is the one thing that's holding the Jags passing game back right now is the negative plays. They are still going to put together some negative plays because the offensive line still isn't very good.

30:44And so I want to see a lot of like cover zero mugged up looks and pressure plans because you can get sacks against this team and the other thing is if you're going to drop defensive linemen and line of scrimmage players into zones, into voids you can get Trevor. We saw this happening against Arizona. And so I think that being kind of the foundation of the car of the Colts plan right now, even with how promising the Jags offense looks. I think that's the approach I take if I'm Luana Rambo in this game. Derek, are we doing this pod with like Wink Martindale? Like Robert just wants to man everybody up and just cause as much chaos as he can.

31:20Apparently that's what I want to do these days. That's the most honorable way to play defense. So I love it that that's where we've arrived. It's like, listen, man, throw five, six bodies at the problem. Let's just play man coverage and make these are bad pass rushes. Right. If I'm the Texans, I don't want to play that way. If I'm the Seahawks, I don't want to play that way. If I'm these teams where I do not have enough teeth with my front four and I feel like I'm kind of playing at a disadvantage, I do want to force the issue a little bit, and I think that's where the Colts are. Even without Walker Little playing in this game, which it seems like he's probably not going to with a concussion, the Colts' front four on its own is not enough to win this game and dominate this game, even against the Jags' offensive line that's a little bit spotty.

31:59Like I do think I want to make them work a little bit. And the Colts have shown a willingness to do that. Like they will get into those looks. We know that about Lou. And I think against this team specifically where they've struggled over the last three or four weeks, I think it lines up pretty well. I actually do think it is a really good point because one on the let's mug it up. Let's drop some weird guys out. Trevor doesn't have a very discerning trigger. He believes what he believes pre-snap and he's going to throw the ball. That's the closest thing you'll ever hear to the criticism of Trevor from very discerning trigger is just beautifully put very graceful point by you my friend it was a very tactful way for me to say that but he and when it looks great it looks great like he's gonna rip an incredible ball down the seam and you're gonna get it some throws into these zones he also will throw you the ball on some of these underneath windows and to the point of playing man coverage i think trevor sees and triggers on that stuff well and trust his guys he's just not a very feathery thrower like there are just times where he'll just spin it like five yards past the guy's head because he's just not that he's better when he can go into zones and just throw it straight and like there's a little bit of that to him and so I do think trying to blend man coverage with some of these like let's mug it up and drop some guys out you're gonna have a couple of reps where maybe Jacoby Myers is just five yards clear of a guy because he just beats him that bad and it's an easy throw for Trevor but you're probably gonna get a couple of tight window throws that make it tough do you worry at all that and and to be fair to the Texans I know their offense has been a more viable unit recently.

33:26We can talk about that in a minute. But even without Sauce, because the Colts lost Sauce on the second or third play of the game last week, they still ran a lot of man. And C.J. Stroud diced them up. I mean, they gave up almost a 60 % success rate against the pass. C.J. Stroud completed 9 of 11 passes for 123 yards. That's a great point. And I think part of what would give me a little bit of pause is that Traveris Ward, since he came back, has struggled a little bit. But if you think about the Colts game, or excuse me, the Chiefs game even, he is getting dusted on some of these crossing routes.

33:58And that's exactly what happened in that game against the Texans last week. Even with that consideration, though, I just think that with where the Jags have been strong and where they've really thrived as an offense, I still think it's probably the best path forward in part because it aligns with some of the confusion that you can create at the line of scrimmage. By playing man out of those looks and running some cover zero as part of that plan, it's just a little bit easier than it is to like drop back and play a lot of zone out of those. And so I do think that those two things kind of converging at the same place, that's maybe the tiebreaker for me is that it allows you to be a little bit funkier in some of the pressures that you can bring.

34:33The funny thing about this matchup, I think ultimately that's right, even if I don't trust the Colts' ability to do it, because as much nice stuff as we just said about the Jags, they are still an infuriating team. They lead the league in penalties. They're the only team in the league that's been penalized 100 times. And they have 53 offensive penalties, which also leads the league. They've turned the ball over eight times in the five-game stretch since the bye. Like the Titans game is the first time they haven't done it since their bye week. Fortunately for them, they get a lot of takeaways, so it can be kind of a wash.

35:07But between the penalties, between the turnovers, they also, Jacoby Myers is great. They still lead the league in drops. And they had a couple infuriating ones against the Titans. And it doesn't ultimately matter when you win as convincingly as they did. But that stuff can loom large when you're playing a good team like Indianapolis. Let's hit the other side of the ball real quick. Derek, the number one thing you're looking for when the Colts have the ball in this game is what? I mean, I think it actually... So I know the Colts have struggled to run the ball as well as they had for most of the year over the last month or so.

35:39This is still, to me, a Jags front that you can push around a little bit. And I know that they've had some decent moments and they are typically one of the better we can fit the run from two high kind of teams. And I do think Lloyd is playing better in the run than he has in years past. But to me, like a guy like Devon Hamilton, I don't think he's a bad nose, but he's not a difference maker. And so I think they can maybe push him around a little bit. I don't think Eric Armstead is playing in this game. Trayvon Walker is not playing in this game. Like other than Josh Heinz Allen, they don't really have that many difference makers up front.

36:06And so I do think that we can get something closer to the Colts being able to run the ball a little bit in this game. I'm with you on that. And in part why I think that's important is that when you watch the Jags defense right now. They are really, really good as a zone coverage defense. Now I'm no longer Wink Martindale. Now I'm Lovey Smith. So we're going to get back to that. I think that if you watch this team, I think it's very well coached on the back end. You feel them really condense windows and squeeze space. I mean, that's true no matter what they're doing. They play a lot of cloud coverages.

36:40They play as much cover six as any team in the league It's not the Eagles. But where it really jumped out to me, I was rewatching, I think it was the game against Arizona and oh, no, no, excuse me. It was though it was last week against the Titans because Jordan Lewis was back. When you watch them play cover three specifically, their ability to kind of squeeze some of these windows because of how well Jordan Lewis plays in the flat or he's sinking underneath the routes. They just do a great job of condensing those spaces. And the numbers bear that out. They right now, the Jags this season have created more EPA in zone coverages than any team in the NFL.

37:14And so it's just a really hard team to throw the ball against for that reason. They're not covering a lot of grass. It's clearly well coached. And so this Colts team that they do a great job of creating opportunities, especially over the field of the middle of the field against zone coverages. You pinning guys down, wrap routes, crossers, all that kind of stuff. How that matchup looks in this game. I think it's more of a toss up than we might have thought like a month ago between these two teams. And so that brings me back to the ground game being really, really important for the Colts offense over the course of this game, because I think that throwing the ball against this Jacks team is just a little bit harder than you want it to be right now.

37:49It is. And like you make a good point about the coaching, like they're just also the thing that we always say about good coaching is they're just getting the best out of players like Devin Lloyd, even in coverage, has been the best that he's, I think, ever looked consistently. He used to have weeks in previous years, but I think down to down, he's been a lot better this year. Monteric Brown, who has been a player that I don't think they wanted to start week one, but I think he consistently has really good moments. And then watching the Titans game last week, this was in man coverage, not necessarily in zone coverage.

38:14But Antonio Johnson sorting through trash, whether it was he had to get over the top of someone or there was a crosser coming back the other way when he's following a tight end across the field. His ability to navigate that and still stay on top of the routes that he was supposed to get to take good angles and and kill a lot of plays in the flats like they are playing at a really, really high level right now. So they don't have a ton of like true superstar difference makers on this team outside of Josh Hans Allen, but a couple of sick plays from him a game on top of how well they're squeezing stuff in zone coverage.

38:44That's how they end up quietly one of the better defenses. All my opinions about Cam Ward remain intact. I feel fine about Cam Ward. I'm still not willing to use performances against the Titans offense as a meaningful data point. This is an important thing to bring up. I can't do it because their numbers against the bye. The Jags defense have been very good. since the bye, they have played the Raiders, Davis Mills, the Cardinals, the Titans, and a Chargers team where they had a 50 % pressure rate. Those are their games. And so... It's a useful context. Even with this Colts offense feeling a little bit diminished over the last few weeks, I do think that this is the best passing offense, the best overall offense the Jags have played since they got their doors blown off when they played against the Rams in London.

39:27So that is worth keeping in mind when we think about how this game could go. I am excited, though, Jordan Lewis being back on the field again, it's hard to say on a Thursday, but Eric Murray is trending toward being available. That's something to watch. You get back to completely full strength in the secondary. Andrew Wingard has concussion. He has not been practicing and so the Eric Murray thing might be even more important. Yeah, absolutely. And just having more guys available to do that with. And one thing I'm watching in this too, really on both sides of the matchup, this could be a big tight end game.

39:58I was curious about the Jags because remember Brock Bowers had his insane day against this Jags defense. Trey McBride had a really nice day in the Arizona game. So I was looking that it up for Jacksonville purposes. Jags have allowed the second most catches in the fourth most yards to tight ends this season to go along with seven touchdowns. And while I was doing that, I was like, oh, the Colts are top five in both of those categories, too. So Brenton Strange being back and Tyler Warren being what he's been as a rookie just could be could be something to watch on both sides of the ball. as these guys trying to get the ball to their tight ends.

40:31Brenton Strange and Jacoby Myers being the difference makers in the AFC South playoff race, exactly where we thought we'd be heading into the season. It's beautiful, isn't it? We're going to take our first quick break and then come back with one thing from a couple of these Week 14 games.

40:50The Tennis Podcast managed to secure Andy Murray's first major interview since his retirement. He lifts the lid on what it's like going head-to-head with Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic, his time as the number one player in the world, and how retirement has reshaped his perspective of his career. Check out the tennis podcast on your podcast player of choice. I hit one thing from two of these week 14 games. Let's start it off with the Texans at the Chiefs. Heading into this game, just for context, the Texans have a 60 % chance to make the playoffs. Per our numbers at the Athletic, the Chiefs are down at 37%.

41:22Holy shit. Derek, this is for you, buddy. one thing you're watching in Texans Chiefs? Listen, the easy thing to do is go, ah, the Houston Texans defense. They got Will Anderson Jr., Daniil Hunter. They got all these cool corners. And we've got a Chiefs offense that tackles have been struggling a little bit. They're banged up. Okay, what is this pass rush going to look like? Mahomes, blah, blah, blah. F*** all that. I think the Texans passing offense, which has struggled for most of the year, I think they have what it takes to win this game. I think they're actually really starting to find something.

41:54I think CJ Stroud looked incredible. last week I think the offensive line is not good but starting to find enough to give him a chance it's better better definitely better because this is the thing the offensive line wasn't good when CJ Stroud was a rookie it just wasn't ruining games every week and right now they're at a spot where again maybe they're not good but they're not ruining games every week and that gives CJ Stroud enough of a chance where he can pick you apart and all this stuff I think Nico Collins is obviously a difference maker some of the other young receivers on this team are starting to make make moves like Jaden Higgins, I think really has something.

42:29The idea that they have these two skyscraper type of receivers for a quarterback like Stroud who will rip it. But they're movers too. They are. They're good athletes. That's the thing that's really cool is that both of them are movers. I didn't know what to make of Jaden Higgins coming into the draft. I didn't know. I didn't love him. I thought he got stuck on man coverage a little bit too often. When we were talking about it in the moment, I was like, this is not my tempo. He's just not my tempo. We both struggled with him. But he, I think he has become a dynamic player. And I think that what the ability to kind of do some stuff on horizontal routes, like on crossers, things like that, like both of those guys, even if they're bigger bodied players, they give you options at multiple levels of the field, which I think that is the cool part of watching two guys that are built like that kind of surprise you a little bit and what they're able to give you.

43:18I almost, it's not one for one because Jamar Chase isn't as big as you think, but there's a little bit of like watch it's like a slightly budget version of watching what the Bengals have with Jamar Chase and T Higgins where it's like these guys are huge skyscrapers but man they move for how bulky they are I'm 100 % with you on this I do think that the Texans have found a little something with this offense and there I think they're like 23rd or 24th in offensive DVOA but we got a bunch of Davis Mills games we got the early part of the season like there's something here and I think the way that you're framing it with it just can't be a disaster Like it just can't be a disaster.

43:54And you're going to be able to get something out of the quarterback. The moves they made along the offensive line, moving Titus Howard to guard. That's the biggest thing. Even last year, the tackles were OK, right? The tackles were still fine. The interior was a nightmare. And so for the first time in a while, by moving Titus Howard to guard and having Ed Ingram play like decent football. Ed Ingram had some fun snaps against the run. Against the run, he's a powerful player. We've always known that. And he is much better in pass protection this year than he has been in previously. I mean, in pass pro, he was one of the worst guards in the league for like multiple years.

44:29And that was one of those I can fix them sort of things that the Texans did where I'm always worried about that. He is playing at a much higher level for the Texans than he has previously. And so the fact that the interior is no longer a disaster and every twist and stunt that a defense runs doesn't put someone in CJ Stroud's lap immediately, we are seeing a much better version of the offense, who would have thunk it? It makes me really uncomfortable how much optimism for the Texans is brimming from this show. Cause I feel the same way. And like, all I want is for the offense to not be a disaster.

45:00That's all I want. And it is not a disaster. I'm really, I'm just looking at it from the other perspective where the three of us are gushing about what the Texans have looked like over the last four weeks, which, so are you saying they're going to end the chiefs season for all intents and purposes? Cause that's what they would be doing if they found a way to win this game. Would you be surprised that that happened? I here's what makes what makes it icky is I would not be surprised based on what we've seen this season. But some part of me can't let go of the Chiefs mystique, even if it is based on 12 games this year isn't earned.

45:36I'm reluctant to let go of it. It's still not a good offense for the Texans. And so there are absolutely plenty of chances here in important games down the stretch. They put up a couple more stinkers. But I do think the floor is much higher than it was. And like Derek hand waved at the beginning, we have two backup tackles and a backup guard going up against what is currently the scariest defensive line in the NFL. Will Anderson ruined the football game last week against the Colts with a fully healthy Colts offensive line. What do you think he's going to do on Sunday? I get big Bucks Chiefs Super Bowl vibes from this game.

46:12shit Eagles Chiefs second Super Bowl honestly just watching Mahomes try to sort this out in superhero fashion which like he can do but for how long against a pass rush like this I don't know it makes me nervous for the Chiefs Trey Smith and Juwan Taylor both did not practice and Justin Simmons or Josh Simmons is out for the season so that's what we're dealing with right now as the Kansas City Chiefs offense so I'm with you I think that there is absolutely a shot that the Chiefs season just ends on Sunday because the Texans offense has some life and the Texans defense chokes the life out of you.

46:44Yeah, I want to make one more really quick point before we move on about CJ Stroud against this particular defensive play caller. Spags loves his cover two stuff. That's that's always been a big part of what he does. CJ Stroud is like weirdly the most aggressive passer in the league against cover two. Not necessarily. I think when we imagine that we imagine like the throwing into the cover to honey hole down the sideline, right? Like the Josh Allen ripping a go ball. It's not necessarily that, but a lot of the windows underneath in cover two, there's a lot of bodies there and you have to be very quick.

47:12You have to be very aggressive. You have to be very accurate. Stroud is incredible at that. And so if he can get like efficient passing offense against some of these, you know, eight, nine, 10 cover two calls that they're going to get, that throws a pretty big wrench in what Spags is going to want to do schematically. The other part of this is from a pass rush perspective, Chris Jones really is like he drives the Chiefs pass rush when they're bringing four. And we talked about it. The fact that the guard play is no longer like the biggest weakness for this Texans offense. Your offensive line is best in the area where it needs to be against this Chiefs team.

47:44And so that's one other area where I feel like the Texans are actually set up to give this team some problems on Sunday in a way that we couldn't have even imagined eight weeks ago. Like we could not have even fathomed. But unfortunately for the Chiefs, we're in that place now. speaking of games that have lost their luster a little bit bills and bangles on sunday the bangles as it currently stands have a six percent chance to make the playoffs per the athletics numbers don't tell that to dave the bills still sitting at eight and four dave what is one thing you were watching in bills bangles on sunday i politely disagree this game has juice it didn't have juice.

48:24Look, I even said it on this show, like in week two or three, I just made my peace with not seeing Joe Burrow play again. They were like, you know, it's like early December timetable for return. You just sort of write it off to after everything we've been through with the Bengals to get Joe Burrow versus Josh Allen, no matter what the records and playoff odds are, it has more juice than I thought it would. That is a strong point. There are no, there are less stakes. I was going to say no stakes. Fair. There are less stakes than there would have been if we were circling this game on August 15th.

48:56But the watchability level has gone up a lot over the last couple of weeks. Let's see what happens here. Let's see how reckless I want to get. This man refuses to give it up. He refuses to give it up. I just jump on the bandwagon of whichever AFC North team has a long shot. Like it was the Ravens earlier this season and now I'm just migrating over to my Bengals. But actually, what I wanted to talk about for this game is not the quarterbacks. Like, it's great that Joe's back, and Joe Burrow versus Josh Allen should always be a game that you want to check in on. And I know the promo material is going to include these guys.

49:30They played in the playoffs in 2022. Everybody's going to be talking about the quarterbacks, but what's actually interesting to me is two really good run games going against two of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The Bengals rush defense success rate is 31st. The Bills is 20th. The Bills have allowed the second most explosive runs in the league. The Bills are, excuse me, the Bengals are 27th in that same category. 97 combined explosive runs. Obviously, we know what the Bills can do on the ground with Josh Allen and James Cook. The Bengals, quietly, which is kind of impressive considering where they've been in the quarterback play that they've had to cope with.

50:09they're 11th in the league in epa per carry and success rate that is one of the biggest turnarounds of the entire season for any single unit derrick i can't remember which game it was i want to say it might have been the packer game where we were watching it back for the hangover and i was like i'm done with this offensive line in this run game like i'm done i cannot watch this anymore and so they the turnaround that that group under the first year offensive uh or maybe it was the Vikings game when Jalen Redman was just like killing Ted Karras over and over again. It was something like that. That might have been it.

50:44It was one of those two games against AFC North teams where I was like, I can't do this anymore. Like just the lack of physicality and you watch them try to run the ball and they've gotten so much better over the back half of the season. And so the fact that they've been able to click into that is encouraging, not only for the watchability of this team over the course of this year, but the fact that maybe we're building to something with the foundation of this offense when Joe is back healthy for an entire year. It's a really good place to be if you're the Bengals, because that seems like a remote possibility for the first like eight weeks of this season.

51:15I'm just going to laugh my ass off if this is a two hour football game, because neither team can stop the other one running the football. And obviously it's Josh Allen and Joe Burrow. Those guys are going to make plays over the course of a game. But those two running games going against these two defenses in Buffalo in December just feel like this could be this could have a short duration when you're talking about time elapsed. I said this last week about the Ravens. I'm going to say it again about the Bills. I know that they can probably run the ball at will against the Bengals. I'd like to see just like a clean, dominant offensive performance from the Buffalo Bills in this game.

51:48Is that too much to ask? What if the Bengals' performance on Thanksgiving was not a Ravens-fueled mirage? And what if we just, what if we're cooking here? I just don't think that's true. Yeah, I'm going to have to see that one. Yeah, I want one more go around. the fact that the Ravens and the bang the Jets have shown a lot more life recently than they did at the beginning of the season but this is not a one week thing for the Ravens the Ravens offense has struggled against pretty much anybody and so I'm thinking I'm thinking right now it might be more of a Raven specific thought than a Bengals defense is coming to life thought I expect Buffalo to win this game but if they don't I'll be ready to say some reckless shit about the Bengals on the recap.

52:30All right. So now I'm curious. The schedule lets up in a big way after this game. I've been playing with the playoff predictor like for two hours a day. So right now, I'm going to click it. If the Bengals win this game, their playoff chances go from 6 % to 14%. How do you feel about that? That's more than double. That's more than double. Brick by brick, man. I love Dave's like unwavering optimism in things. Let me pull this up. After After the Bills Yes Dave do it After the Bills You get a home game Against the Ravens Who you just Handily beat Then it's the Dolphins Then it's the Cardinals Then it's the Browns If they win this game They could win out That's all I'm trying to say Look at the Ravens And Steelers schedules too This is very much On the table It's a thing You've been trying to Beat this drum too I hate the fact that You've been encouraging him Over the last Look at this Beller was trying to do this Last year Beller's got a point I hate the fact that He's encouraging him Ravens go Steelers, Bengals, Patriots, Packers, Steelers.

53:32That's very tough. That is a tough road to hoe. And then Steelers go Ravens, Dolphins, Lions, Browns, Ravens. Here's why. The Bengals have the easiest stretch of the three. I'm not opposed to this. Just saying. It's more so that your unwavering belief in it is funny to me. I support this. Like if the Bengals were to win out and the Ravens were to miss the playoffs, I support that because the Ravens should be punished for what this has looked like over the last few weeks. I think that would actually be like a just end to this Ravens season if the Bengals were to pull that off. I'm going to spend the weekend talking myself even more into this, and then James Cook will have like 130 yards at halftime, and I'll just shut up quietly.

54:11To humor you here, I did winning out for the Bengals six straight wins. Their playoff chances per the Athletics' Austin Mock, 82%. Let's go. Crazier things have happened, I think. Actually, maybe not. 82 % is much more than 6%. I'm not a math guy, but I just— Neither am I, but that tracks for me. Speaking of the Ravens, let's go spend some time on Sicko Street. I don't know why I was waiting for a drop there. I was about to say, did we do something new that I missed? We got something coming. Let's keep that in. Let's just keep that in. Let's keep that in. I needed to sit with it for a minute before we got into the segment.

54:53Steelers at Ravens. the 6-6 Steelers and the 6-6 Ravens. It's really funny. I love the fact that sometimes the numbers just the disrespect that they elicit. The fact that the teams have the same exact record and the Steelers' playoff chances are 30 % and the Ravens are at 64 % is the most spit-in-your-face thing that you could say about the Steelers' team. Is that worse than like a month ago when the Ravens were still like well below 500 and had a better chance of making the playoffs? They were the betting favorite at like 2-5. It's been a weird year in the AFC North It's been a weird year for this set of teams And this is a weird framing of this game But you wanted to include this in Sicko Street Typically in the Sicko Street segment We like to pump up a game that otherwise looks disgusting Here's the reason that you should watch a game that on paper Is easy to ignore This is not that But the state of affairs between these two teams Are making us sick to our stomach And I think that's why it's worth including here I don't want to speak for everybody.

55:54I turn 37 next week. So I remember the AFC Central. But the vast majority of my NFL lived experience is in this realignment for team divisions since 2002. For most of my football life, and I think it actually ties well to the top of the show with Bears-Packers. Bears-Packers is a century old, and we know the history. But most of the time in our lifetimes, when they play, it's like, ah, okay. Like the fan bases hate each other, but whatever. This is the game. This is the preeminent rivalry in the NFL. And I'm not talking about quarterback rivalries like Brady Manning. Team on team within the division.

56:33Absolutely. This is the division rival in pro football for the modern era. I would love for people who are younger football fans, just queue up. Oh my God. Like the YouTube highlights for a 2008 Ravens Steelers game. and go look at, one, how ridiculous those teams were, and two, those two teams in that moment are the purest expression of how football feels very different now than it did 15 years ago. Go pull up some clips of like Palomalu and Ryan Clark just hitting the absolute bejesus out of people. James Harrison. And that's my point. And that's why I, and come throw your hate at me, Ravens and Steelers fans.

57:15I lobbied to put this on sicko street. They hate themselves more than they hate you at this point. It bums me the hell out that the Ravens and Steelers are playing for the division lead in December. And I think this is the fourth most enticing game of Sunday. Even when you said fourth, I was surprised. Even that seems like it's a little rich. This game is not worthy of the legacy of this rivalry. And I wanted to go back and look it up. Since we reformatted into the modern divisions, Baltimore and Pittsburgh have combined to win this division 17 of 23 times. Nine combined AFC title game appearances, four trips to the Super Bowl, three Super Bowl trophies.

57:53They've played in the playoffs five times. They decide that an AFC championship game was played between these two teams in 2008. Six losing seasons between the two of them since 2002 combined combined all the Ravens right I think the Steelers had one before Tomlin. The Steelers had one before Tomlin. Yeah, only one of those belongs to Pittsburgh. Outside of the New England and Kansas City situations, like the actual dynasties with Hall of Fame quarterbacks, this is as successful as it gets in the modern NFL. And it's just, it's in a gross spot right now. And I would even argue, you could point out, the Steelers haven't been what we're used to them being for the last four or five years.

58:33But even then, the Steelers were a fun foil to the Lamar Jackson MVP campaign. They got him once a year. Even last year. You could count on Mike Tomlin dragging the Ravens into the mud once a year and winning some gross AFC North game that feels very weighty and physical. And this isn't even that because the Ravens aren't that. Like this is just two mediocre football teams playing for the division lead. This, if you just took the logos and histories away, this would be Colts Jags. That's what this would be. It is. It's true. It is very true. A division winner by default. This is the path to get there.

59:14I guess this matters because the division lead is up for grabs. Like, that's a very AFC South thing to say. But we're talking about Raven Steelers. And that just sucks. Like, this has been appointment viewing for most of my consciousness. and I mean I'm gonna watch it and I'm sure I'll be entertained by pieces of it but like it shouldn't be where it is right now and like we're talking about there's a lot of noise in Pittsburgh right now about potentially moving on from Mike Tomlin I think Ravens fans have a right to feel grumpy if if their team misses the playoffs in a year where I know Lamar Jackson's not all the way healthy but he's played a lot of this season like missing the playoffs with a two-time MVP is tough to stomach.

59:55And that's where these teams are right now. And I hate that it's here, but it is. And I'm surprised. Even knowing where these teams have been, I'm surprised that I'm not more excited for a Ravens-Steelers game. The offenses with these two teams, both of them are gross to watch right now. But with the Steelers, we anticipated that, right? Like the Steelers offense for me is like going to watch a bad movie and like, I know it's going to be bad. Like I can't fault it for being bad. These were my expectations. The disappointment I currently feel while watching the Ravens offense is an entirely different story.

1:00:29And I know that Lamar Jackson isn't all the way healthy. I said this on the midweek show this week. It's worth reiterating again if you guys did not listen to that. When I talked to Lamar on the Sunday recap show last week, I talked about him being healthy. I think he looked healthier than he had been previously. He's clearly not 100%. And I'm just tired of watching this offense with a diminished version of Lamar Jackson and a diminished version of everything else. They can't run the ball. He's playing some of the worst ball he has played as a starter injury or not. Two of his worst 10 games by passing success rate since he became the starter in 2019 have happened in the last two weeks.

1:01:06Two of them. It's just gross to watch right now. And so you combine a Ravens or a Steelers offense that I had no expectations for that is not fun to watch with a Ravens offense that I had sky high expectations for that is no fun to watch. and you get to a place where this game just feels pretty disgusting. And that's kind of where we are right now. If I was looking for something nice to say, I'm happy that our Darius Washington is practicing again. And I'm intrigued by how much it can help the defense. And maybe the Ravens defense can just tick upward to the point where it's like a real strength that can carry this offense while it figures itself out.

1:01:46But like, I shouldn't be looking for silver linings in a Ravens-Steelers game. I guess that's my point. I should be like brimming with excitement to watch it. And that's just not how I feel. By the way, Lamar Jackson not practicing today. Oh, good. Oh, great. So just, it's been great. It's a lot of really fun stuff going on with that one. One more game on Sitco Street here. We have to mention this one. I mean, this is like the ultimate Sitco Street game. The Titans and the Browns playing football this week. There are a lot of different entry points to this. I think, I mean, for me, the Cam Ward, Shadour Sanders part of it is absolutely worth at least thinking about.

1:02:23How much time did we spend pre-draft about those two guys at the top of the draft and it doesn't happen? And so the fact that they're playing against each other as both of these teams are in the states they're in right now, that's a layer that I think is worth it. But for you, this is all about one thing. The sack record, man. You made the joke when the Browns played the Raiders that Miles Garrett could set the record that day. It really could happen now because he's four away from the record and he's playing the Tennessee Titans, who A, their pass protection is not good, and B, Cam Ward needs to learn how to get rid of the ball quicker.

1:02:59I'll take a couple. Between those two things, you mean to tell me Miles Garrett couldn't have another five-sack day? And just it's funny because a lot of times when guys chase records like this, it like comes down to the final week of the season. What if Miles Garrett just quietly at noon on Sunday, you'd look over in the third quarter and you're like, oh, I'll scare it. Set the sack record with a month left in the season. I want it so badly, like for him to get the he will get the record, right? Like it is pretty much an inevitability. He's a shocking upset at this point. if he didn't. He's averaged a sack of game for his NFL career, and he has enough games left in the season that that alone would get him there.

1:03:38The fact that he is going to play Cam Ward, who listen, everyone's listening to me on this show. I love Cam Ward. He will. He has the capacity to take seven sacks in a game. And if four of them were Garrett this week, that would be pretty cool. I will say the next five games that they're playing, the Browns, outside of the Titans, There are not a lot of other quarterbacks that are getting sacked a ton. He's playing Caleb Williams next week, and famous last words, maybe I'm playing with, maybe I'm like, you know, testing fate there, but the Bears have taken far fewer sacks this year than they had previously.

1:04:11Josh Allen the week after that, Aaron Rodgers is going to be getting rid of the ball in 1.2 seconds while playing against the Browns in that week 6-17 game, and then he's playing Joe Burrow in week 18. He will not set it against Aaron Rodgers. Like, that's just not going to happen. We're going to see records broken with air yards per attempt and time to throw in that game from Aaron Rodgers. I'm so fascinated by this. I could see him doing it against the Titans, but bare minimum, I figure he's got to get like two in this game. And then, yeah, he'll find it. I'm very, very confident this is going to happen.

1:04:48I'm just going to pile on the Steelers here because why not? But I just came to this thought for the first time, Derek. watching Rogers right now. The last quarterback I can remember watching that made me feel this way was the final year of Ben Roethlisberger's career. Oh man, that's really good. Where it just wants to be in gun, balls out immediately, doesn't want to get hit. And this honestly, this is worse than that because at least Roethlisberger was getting the ball out really quickly, but there were at least moments where he was still willing to like be aggressive in terms of throwing into windows and stuff.

1:05:21Rogers doesn't even want to do that. Like he just balls out in the flat every like immediately. The storied post Ben Roethlisberger and his prime quarterback history of the Pittsburgh Steelers. It's a wonderful thing. All right. We're going to take one more quick break and then come back with a little more ugly offense in Pennsylvania. We're going to go into the hood.

1:05:43It's time to have a conversation about the Eagles offense. I feel like this has been building, but it's reached kind of a fever pitch after what they did on Black Friday against the Bears. Great for me. Bad if you want to watch decent offense and if you're an Eagles fan. The Eagles over the last six weeks are 24th in offensive success rate. They are 23rd in EPA per play. This right now is not even a disappointing offense. It's a bad offense. and that feels a little bit different than some of the skids that they had hit during the 2024 season, especially, and even in 2023, where I think the bottoming out was uglier on defense than it was on the offensive side of the ball.

1:06:24And Derek, this is something that you've been focusing on really all week. You did the video for our YouTube channel is gonna come out a little bit later this week about the state of the Eagles offense. Where do you wanna start this? If we're trying to pin down why this team has kind of hit rock bottom in its current iteration, what do you think is the main culprit? So this to me, I think more than I mean, this is kind of true of a lot of offenses, but they are they built everything through how good this offensive line was going to be and how much that afforded them to do both in the run game and in the passing game.

1:06:55In terms of the run game, it was like, OK, we're going to chip away at this. We're going to chip away at this. And then eventually Saquon Barkley is going to rip a 60 yard run that wins the game. One, they are not as efficient down to down, so they can't even stay in the down in distances. They want to run the ball and continue to chip away at it. And then they're just not as explosive on the ground. And so you take out that Jenga block of, OK, we can't really rely on getting explosive plays that way. And we're not in as many reliable down in distances. So now we have to be more of a pure passing offense.

1:07:22Well, one, this passing offense struggled for most of last year as it was as a true dropback offense, even when they were really good and they can rely on the running game. So now you're putting more of an onus on a passing game that is always been kind of limited and I think is a little bit still struggling and might even be worse than it was last year. truthfully and then because the offensive line is where it's at you're seeing some of the worst of Jalen Hurts. Jalen Hurts is a quarterback who is wants to stand on his spot in the pocket. He throws a really nice go ball. He's pretty accurate on his first read but other than that he doesn't give you a lot late in the down and so if the pocket is collapsing a little bit sooner you're just getting more plays where he's either like eating sacks or he's bailing too early or he's just throwing incompletions because he's a little bit late like it just feels like pulling the Jenga block out of we can't get explosives in the run game every single other part of this offense has fallen around because of it let's start with the run game because i think that is the most important condition here and it bleeds into some of the pass protection some of the other things with the quality of the offensive line just for context here are the running backs right now that have a lower success rate with at least 50 carries in the nfl than saquon barkley there are five of them.

1:08:36Ashton Gentry, RJ Harvey, Woody Marks, Ramondre Stevenson, Bucky Irving. That's it. And a lot of Bucky Irving's carries came when the Bucks offensive line was completely in tatters at the beginning of the year. And so that, so you have the Texans offensive line in here, RJ Harvey, who, you know, is struggling in terms of like down to down efficiency, and then Ashton Gentry. And so the Gentry thing I think is worth bringing up for this reason. There are two teams with a higher run stuff percentage allowed than the Philadelphia Eagles this year the Cleveland Browns and the Las Vegas Raiders How can that be true?

1:09:11Because the offensive line just isn't what we've come to expect from the offensive line That that is where this starts to me because no matter what else you were doing Last year you could always rely on that group being one of the best position groups in the NFL full stop That just isn't the case right now for a bunch of different reasons. Lane Johnson's hurt, right? So you're already significantly worse at right tackle, but that didn't happen for most of the season. You had Lane for a good chunk of the year, but right now he is not playing. At right guard, Steen is just not the type of player that Mekhi Becton was on the ground.

1:09:41Even if Mekhi Becton is an imperfect player, he could move people, and you saw that last year. Cam Juergens has been banged up this season, and when he has played, you can tell that he's not 100%. The only guy on that offensive line that looks less healthy all year than Cam Juergens is the guy playing next to him at left guard. Landon Dickerson. And Jordan Mailata is not playing at the level we've come to expect from Jordan Mailata. You combine that with the fact that this team has some of the worst blocking tight ends in the NFL outside of Dallas Goddard. And as a collective unit, it's just not good right now.

1:10:13You know what else blew my mind? Talking about the stuff rates that I was watching the Black Friday game back. And I mean, you can you know it anecdotally watching it, but going back, you're just like, holy shit, they gave up on running the football after a certain point. I would too against that vaunted Bears defense. And the vaunted Bears defense, of course, the Monsters of the Midway. Three teams this year have limited the Eagles to less than 20 rushing attempts. Since they morphed into this team in 2022, only two other teams have been able to do that to them. And one of them was a Gardner-Menshu game where Jalen Hurts wasn't healthy enough to play.

1:10:51The three teams that have done it this year, Dallas a couple weeks ago, Denver back earlier in the season, and now Chicago. That's two games where you had big leads. Like Denver, you're up 17-3 in the second half. Dallas, you're up 21-0 after a quarter. And even Chicago, of course, you're playing from behind, so you're less likely to run. But a 15-point deficit should not be enough to shake you out of running the football if you're good at it. Against one of the worst run defenses in the league. And so the fact that these are not these are not the games where you have to give up on running the ball because you're just that far behind.

1:11:25These are either games where you're leading or are within shouting distance of making it a game. And they just cannot or will not run the football. And I never expected the Eagles to be here in this iteration of their roster. Like Derek mentioned with the explosiveness, the Eagles had 25 runs of 20 plus yards last year. They have six this year. That is the difference when it comes to once a game last year, you were going to get an explosive run, maybe twice a game. And that just isn't happening right now. And because they've been dissuaded from running the ball, it puts more strain on the passing game.

1:12:00And so, Derek, we know that the passing game struggled for long stretches of last season. It was a talking point the entire year. You got A.J. Brown reading books on the sideline. You got questions about it every single week. My question for you is, do you think the passing game, in terms of its construction, quality, effectiveness, is demonstrably worse right now than it was last year when they did hit some lulls over the course of the year? I think it's a combination of both things. I think, one, just the simple fact that they have to rely on it more is a problem for the way that they are built.

1:12:33But I do think it is a little bit less dynamic than it was in years past. If you go on NFL Pro and sort plays by motion, the Eagles have the fewest amount of plays with motion in the entire NFL this year. And last year, it's not like they were at the top of the league. They were like a middle of the pack team in terms of that. But they have dropped their movement in the offense down a little bit. Part of that is maybe they just aren't playing with as many leads, so they don't feel as comfortable using all that movement, whatever it is. They are not generating as much movement as they had last year.

1:12:59The other part of it is A.J. Brown's alignment continues to get more static. According to FTN Fantasy, he is he is aligned outside on 88.1 percent of his routes. that's 6 % higher than last year. It's 12 % higher than it was in 2023 and 14 % higher than it was in 2022. Like they keep pushing him more and more towards the outside. And so I get it because maybe they just, I don't know, maybe it's, I don't know, whatever it is. I understand that like they like him on go balls. And so if you put them outside, you can do that. But like, he's a good player. Multiple tight end stuff too, where there's isn't a slot receiver.

1:13:33And so that's probably bleeding into it a little bit. Either way, like landing in the place where they are is not a good thing. If you know where he's going to be in the offense feels that static. Right. It's just you want him to be racing across the middle of the field a little bit more. But I guess that, again, goes back to the point of like, that's not where Jalen Hurts likes to throw the football. And so maybe they're just more comfortable being like, you know what? We're just going to stick A.J. Brown outside and just let him run down the field. And if you throw it to him, you throw it to him.

1:13:57And so I think it's just become this part of like one, them having to rely on it more has been a problem. It's a little bit less dynamic in the way that they're moving guys around, both in terms of movement and in terms of alignment. and then because of the pressure that it's put on Jalen Hurts with not having as good pass protection in front of him, I think he's just playing a little bit worse than he usually does. And so it's just kind of this cascading effect of all of these factors. The Eagles this season have 48 passes between the numbers between 0 and 20 air yards. 48. That is the lowest number in the league.

1:14:30Two other teams, only two other teams are below 60. The league average is 85. They have 48 of them. They just do not try to access that area of the field. Like the only times you go back to the Dallas game, they were throwing, they hit AJ on like three, like bigger slant slash glance routes. And that only reason that's happening is because they're yanking the flat player out and it's a massive window for him to throw the ball. And it's before he's even between the numbers. It's like when he's just outside of the hash is when Jalen Hurts is letting those throws go. It's just not a part of their offense.

1:15:03And when I watch them right now, There are clearly some issues structurally with the way this thing is built. It does not have the same sort of life. It feels like cobbled together where there's no cohesion between how they want to run the ball and how they want to throw the ball and concepts building on each other. Like you feel that you feel the fact that this is a first year offensive coordinator when this team has been in its best. Shane Steichen and Kellen Moore were calling plays. Those guys are head coaches and those guys were proven offensive coordinators before they even got there. Shane did an incredible job with Justin Herbert in 2021.

1:15:34and we've seen Kellen Moore have some success. And so I do think there's some onus on the staff. There's a big onus on the staff for why this looks the way that it looks. But the other part of this for me, when I watch this passing offense right now, you are seeing what has made Jalen Hurts a limited player and we've just ignored it at times in the past because they've been winning. He is not a proactive quarterback. And you don't have to be when everything else around you is pristine. when you have great pass protection, when you have guys consistently winning one-on-ones, when you watch him play, there's such little anticipation in how he's placing the ball into windows.

1:16:15The only anticipation in his game is when he identifies a one-on-one outside the numbers before the play even starts and he throws that ball immediately. That's it. That is the only time he's ahead of the play and that has nothing to do with reading out the play in real time. Even when you watch him in the pocket, we've talked about this, he is not a creative player from the pocket and so if those pockets aren't going to be beautiful and giving him all that space when is the last time you saw him climb up in the pocket when things were dirty or muddy when is the last time it happened i can't remember seeing it he doesn't do it he's a quarterback where if he's moving it's immediately to get outside of the pocket like he he's not it's it's the same thing that i've talked about with bo nicks where bo nicks doesn't really handle like himself in the pocket he's just either going to stand on his spot and make a throw or he's going to bail.

1:17:03And so I've had the thing with when you watch Jalen Hurts this year is I think it has become apparent. And I think that this was also true in a little bit in 2023 when the environment around him is less than perfect. And to be clear, the environment is still good. The pass protection isn't bad. It's just worse than it was. The passing, the receivers are still good. Maybe it's just a little bit less dynamic, but there are throws there to be made. These guys are getting open. The pass protection is good enough for a good quarterback to make a lot of these plays move around the pocket. He's just not playing very well right now.

1:17:36And I think to me, like, I know this sounds ridiculous saying this about the Super Bowl winning quarterback who just this. But like, I think right now he is not a top 20 quarterback in the league to me. 20? 20. 20. Yes. I realized that that is a lot. 20 is a big number. I went through the exercise and made sure I could get to 20. And to be clear, I barely got to 20. but I do think that there are right now today if I needed to win a game in like a I have the 16th best offense outside of the quarterback and I have to insert this quarterback into the offense and go win a game there are at least 20 other quarterbacks I would probably rather have that seems like a high number we don't have to go through all of them that's like a high number I think he's definitively outside of like the top 12 and those are the raging arguments that were going on the entire offseason.

1:18:27And when you see him in less than ideal circumstances, the blemishes and the faults and the deficiencies in his game become that much more apparent. He is not a problem solver. His ability to solve problems happens in one way. It's as a scrambler. That's it. That's the only way he solves problems. And there are more problems with this Eagles offense than there have been at any point since he was the starting quarterback. When I watch him in the pocket and I watch like Drake May. They're playing different sports. The ability to navigate that space and solve whatever issues happen with pass protection or the ability to find throws and find crevices that wouldn't exist otherwise, that's just not a part of this Eagles offense.

1:19:10And so when everything else starts to get diminished, you're left with what he is as a quarterback. Or look at the guy in his division. Dave, you're very familiar with Dak Prescott. The game that Dak played last week. I've watched him a few times. The way that Dak played last week against the Kansas City Chiefs, maneuvering around the pocket, that, to me, at least for what I like watching out of quarterbacks, that is what really, really, really good quarterbacks do. And I just don't see that right now. When we were talking about Jalen moving in the pocket and making plays in a muddy pocket, my brain immediately went to Dak's throw to Javante Williams in that Thanksgiving game.

1:19:44Yes, it's a perfect example. Let me bring it back to the here and now. And I remember saying this before the season. the interesting thing about the Jalen Hurts debate now is we can slot him into the hierarchy as much as we want. You can win a Super Bowl with him. Like, we know that's true. We don't have to suppose and be like, well, if this, then that, just let me finish. Let me finish. It has nothing to do with how good that makes him. But if the Eagles know that they can win a Super Bowl with their quarterback and they're tied to him, let's just be blunt about it. Like, you're not getting, you're not moving on from Jalen Hurts and I don't think you should even be at a point where you are talking about doing that yet how do you get this back on track like do you just have to wait to add a more talented right guard to your offensive line do you consider a change at offensive coordinator do you need to have a blunt conversation with your quarterback about what he's willing to do like how do you dig this out of the ditch because we know the Eagles offense can be good enough to get the job done with Jalen Hurts.

1:20:49I think it's about coaching, structure, plan on offense, because I don't think the talent, I don't think it's getting better. Not right now, not this season. But even like, what could you possibly add, right? Like if you want to go get another right guard, fine. But like they already have a hugely talented offensive line. AJ Brown's getting older. Like it does feel like the talent level is probably never going to be at the place it was by the end of last season. Not unless you stay on the type of heater they've been on over these last three or four years. Yeah. Even if it's, I think that they would have to continue to be good for it to stay at this level, right?

1:21:24Like I don't think it's ever getting as good as it was last year. So I think this is about how can we make sure we're injecting the offense with more life structurally with the play calling, with the coaching, all of that stuff. Because if you look at when this thing has been successful, it has been successful when they've had guys who do not come from this world with Nick Sirianni. Steichen, they worked together in Los Angeles, but Steichen is like, he'd worked other places. Kellen Moore worked other places. This offensive staff right now is Sirianni, Petulo, who has been at Sirianni's hip the entire time they've been in Philadelphia, and Parks Frazier is the passing game coordinator now who replaced Petulo.

1:22:02He was with all this entire group when they were in Indianapolis. It's just very insular in a bad way. They have needed to go outside of that world to find the right answers. And I think they probably will have to do it again. Does that that's a really interesting point because. And obviously you hear all the noise in Philadelphia about firing Kevin Petulo. His house was unfortunately egged. I mean, that sucks. But my point is, would that even salvage anything? Like, is it even a worthwhile move to like even this year? Yeah, like right now. This year, I don't know how salvageable it is. I also don't think he needs to be fired.

1:22:39I think that same thing happened with Desai, where they just kind of quietly moved him to the side. I can't stop thinking about the Desai thing, where they just quietly demoted him before, ironically, before a Monday night game. Guess what night the Eagles are playing this year, or this weekend? There are a few different considerations there in terms of like the dynamics, right? Like Petulo has been, him and Sirianni have a personal relationship. He's been like the associate head coach for the last few years. And so he's just much more a part of the fabric of the organization than a guy like Sean Desai was, who was coming in to replace Jonathan Gannon and he was not a part of this world.

1:23:14And so I think they'd be less quick to like push him to the side. Even next year, if they have a different offensive coordinator, I think you can still and they might try to keep a tool on the staff just in a different role. And so I just feel like this is one of those where the move that they made to try to bring somebody along in-house happened the same way it did in 2023. And when you combine that with some of the personnel issues that we've seen and the fact that strengths of this roster are not as strong as they used to be, I think that's how you arrive in the place that we are right now.

1:23:43And I don't know if it looks any better against the Chargers defense that has been playing some really, really good football recently. Part of the reason we didn't talk about the other side of the ball in this game is we don't know what's going to happen with Justin Herbert, but the Eagles offense, Chargers defense part of this on Monday night absolutely could be heavily tilted in favor of a Chargers defense that's playing pretty damn well. Before we get to what we want to know in week 14, quick wins pool update for you guys. Just if you've been following along, you listen to the show early in the season, you know that before the year we do a pool where all of us picked five teams and then two teams that were predicted to win, I think, six and a half games or fewer by Vegas.

1:24:21So the three of us each had seven teams. The loser, so fewest combined wins by the end, has to dress up as a super fan of the team that did them in the most on Radio Row when we get to San Francisco this year. I guess Bay Area Super Bowl. I don't know what they're going to try to call it. Right now, I am 46 and 40. Derek is 40, 43, and one. Dave is 36 and 49. you got some work to do. I hate it here. I don't have work to do. The work I have to do is soliciting you, the listeners, for which super fan to do. No, you don't get to do this yet. You do not get to throw in the towel and try to reverse jinx yourself.

1:25:00It's only week 14. There's no reverse jinx. No. I picked my first two picks. You were gracious enough to give me the first pick of good teams and the first pick of bad teams because this is my first year on the show. And I picked the Ravens and the Titans. It's over for me, man. Man, my first two picks in this thing are seven and 17 on the year. And on top of that, I'm stuck counting on the team, the team with J.J. McCarthy. Like I'm counting on the Vikings for wins. I'm counting on. And Derek is the Bengals, right? I got the he's got Joe Burrow back. So that's the problem is you're going to be rooting for the Bengals.

1:25:36But at the same time, every Bengals win. It's over. I'm trying to tell you that's just come find me on the discord. Come find me on Twitter and tell me which which super fan I should be because it's over for me. I biffed it in the worst way. The Bengals and Texans turning it around for me has been the part of it that I could have hoped on. Right. Like I had still some amount of faith that CJ Stroud and the offense could figure out the defense is cool. I knew Joe Burrow was going to come back. The fact that Aaron Glenn's Jets have gotten me three wins over the last five weeks has been like the oh my God, I can't believe it's happening moment.

1:26:11Speaking of, that brings me to my what do I want to know coming out of week 14. The Jets are playing the Dolphins this week. I want to know which of these teams are going to salvage their late season vibes the most. Because both of them are trending in that direction. The Jets have had some life recently, right? This is good. I like this. They gave the Ravens all they could stand in that game. A couple penalties go the Ravens' way. Like the Jets were in that thing. They've won three of their last five. The Dolphins have won three games in a row. Oh, I heard you stumping for Mike McDaniel and co on the show earlier this week.

1:26:47I was as surprised as anybody that I've reached this point with the Dolphins. But these are two teams that I think halfway through the season, were there any teams in the league who had more rotten vibes than the Dolphins and the Jets? No. It'd be hard to find them. The Dolphins coming in had some pretty rancid vibes. Think about how disgusting the early part of the season was for the Jets. They were unwatchable for a huge chunk of the first half of the year. And then they traded away their two best defenders. The fact that these teams have a pulse, I think, is great news if you were a fan of either one of them that had a hard time looking yourself in the mirror over the first half of the season.

1:27:28And so I want to know between these teams, which one is going to really kickstart a hey we can talk ourselves into this final home stretch because I think both of them have the gear to do it you caught you inspired me to do something I never thought I would do which is pull up the dolphins on the playoff simulator which I needn't have bothered like if they won out they would still only have even for that a 15 % chance for do we not have to pick in the top three fair right and I think the dolphins were cruising toward the number one pick in the draft, maybe that would have been a good thing for the Dolphins, right?

1:28:02Like if we talk about the trajectory of the franchise and the healthiest way this could have gone, maybe bottoming out is actually the answer. But when it comes to the day-to-day feeling of being part of that organization, I think both of these teams have kind of pulled their seasons back from the brink a little bit. And I'm wondering who gets the upper hand in that struggle on Sunday. Dave, what do you got for me? What do you want to know coming out of week 14? I want to know which team, and maybe realistically which fan base, is going to be face-to-face with the abyss when this week is over.

1:28:33And this is a unique weekend for these sorts of situations. There is a lot on the line. And funnily enough, because we record this on Thursday, so by the time you're listening to this, you will know what happens in the Lions-Cowboys game. But do you realize the stakes of this game coming up in a few hours that we haven't seen yet? Obviously, the Cowboys, it's an outside chance anyway. but if they were to beat the Lions on the road on Thursday night, their playoff chances jump as high as 42%. They go to 8 % with a loss. So it's done. This brief moment is done for them if they don't win. But shockingly enough, the Lions, who are at our table right now, who we think of as a contender, if they lose this game, it's a 13 % chance.

1:29:23It's over. They make the playoffs at all. If they lose this game, it's probably over. I don't think until I started looking into this, I wasn't thinking of the Lions as like season on the brink. I was just like, oh, yeah, you know, you lose a game to the Packers. Big deal. Like your offensive line isn't as good as you thought. But like, no, it could be over for them if they don't beat Dallas. Chiefs, we don't need to get too deep into it. But 13 percent chance of making the playoffs if they don't beat Houston at home on Sunday night, they would lose tiebreakers to Houston, Jacksonville, Buffalo.

1:29:52So by Monday morning, we could be like doing obituaries on the Chiefs season with a month to go, which is wild. Obviously, the AFC North game, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, just huge swings. Baltimore, 64 % chance to make it if they win, 31 % if they lose. Pittsburgh, if they lose, drops to 18%. How's this one for fun? Colts have a 68 % chance to make the playoffs right now and a 34 % chance to win the division. 51 % to make the playoffs 14 % to win the division if they don't beat the Jags like that's that's the toughest think of where they were a month ago 8-1 leading the league doing crazy trades tying themselves to Daniel Jones to be 8-5 after an 8-1 start that ain't great man yeah if the Bears like those are the two games of the week if the Bears lose to the Packers on Sunday I think I'm still going to be feeling okay if the Colts lose to the Jags on Sunday and you're a Colts fan that is a tough reality to be facing.

1:30:52I don't think you're too rational for this to bother you, but the Bears are famously number one in the NFC right now. They fall all the way to the seven seed if they lose to the Packers on Sunday. The Eagles, if they were, let's say the Cowboys beat the Lions and the Eagles lose to the Chargers, all of a sudden a division that we mentally locked up weeks ago could be up for grabs. There's just, there's a lot of potential for angst in the NFL this weekend. And I just want to know who's feeling it when it's all over. I want to be clear. I wouldn't be happy if the Bears lost on Sunday. But if they lose, their playoff chances are still 70%.

1:31:28And so it's not like a death now if it happens. It's still a funny drop to go from one to seven in a weekend. Absolutely. I just want to be clear that, like, I do care about this. I just want to be very clear about that. Derek, what do you want to know coming out of week 14, buddy? Mine's pretty simple. Sam Darnold has been on a little bit of a quiet skid here. Obviously, the Rams game was pretty loud. But last week, I think against the Vikings, he was not that good. It's just the Max Brosmer of it all kind of hit all that. This is a Falcons defense that they are playing that if you if they are in pure pass grips, they can blitz the hell out of you.

1:31:58They can rush the passer. They can generate some bad plays. And that's where we get Sam Darnold. The Seahawks run game, though, quietly has been a little bit better over the last month since their bye week. And that is the way to insulate Sam Darnold from what this past defense can do. So I kind of just want to see if they can steady the ship here a little bit as they get towards the back end of the season against the defense that could get them if they fall into some bad pass scenarios yeah the the Falcons defense is the exact type of defense that might send them into that like volatility mode that you do not want to see so that's 100 worth keeping an eye on all right that is all we've got if you're listening to this on Friday morning please check out our Lions Cowboys recap on the athletic football show YouTube page that will be available right now.

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