Week 15 Preview: Prove-it time for the Patriots and Broncos

0:28Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. Hit one thing from a few other Week 15 matchups. Chatted about Phillip Rivers playing football against the Seahawks this week, which is a real thing that's happening, and I still am struggling with how I want to feel about it. But a lot of fun stuff to get to on this one today with me, Dave Hellman, and Derek Klassen. Let's get to it right now.

0:52We have got a jam-packed Week 15 preview today. A lot of fun one-off games. One thing that we're going to dig into a little bit later, got a little bit of a take tribunal about the state of the AFC and its quarterbacks this year, which feel a little bit different. But we're starting off with two games of the week, two monster games presented by BetMGM. First one here, Bills at Patriots. The Buffalo Bills are one and a half point favorites on the road in New England. Dave, why is Bills Patriots a game of the week? it's a de facto division clenching spot for the New England Patriots taking the AFC East from the Buffalo Bills for the first time in forever.

1:32It's a chance for, ironically, since they already beat the Bills, like the Bills were the Pats measuring stick all the way back in week five, and they won that game in Orchard Park. And now you get to do it again, because I think if you're paying attention to the NFL, you hear the noise about the Patriots strength of schedule and how impressive is this really well even with their issues on defense the bills have josh allen the bills are an impressive win and you've got a chance to sweep them and i mean they already are in control they look like a potential one seed in the afc but you sweep the buffalo bills and take a division that they've owned since tom brady left town that's a that's a you have my attention caliber thing there's a lot of layers to this because i think since that week five game the week five game i was like oh man Man, look at the Patriots go.

2:19I think that was kind of the response. It was like a feel-good story. Yeah, it was like a fun little thing where I was like, oh man, this team's surprising. Let's see how this goes. Now, Drake May has a realistic case to win the MVP. The Patriots have a realistic shot at the one seed. And so I think it reframes that results a little bit. And this feels much different. At the same time, though, the Bills are still favorites on the road in New England. And I think that also gets to what I think is a fun tension we'll talk about a few different times on this show, Derek. the AFC specifically now, we have all of these kind of complete teams top to bottom without the established MVP quarterbacks.

2:56Really, Josh Allen is the only one that's kind of guaranteed to make the playoffs among the group of the big four. And it's tempting to be like, well, that era of the AFC is over, at least for this year. Like we have a new crop of teams that are just built a little bit differently. But at the end of the day, that new crop of teams is still an underdog at home against Josh Allen. And so sometimes it's hard to kick an old habit in terms of how we're thinking about these teams in December. It definitely is. And it's like when they beat them in week five, it was like, oh, the Patriots are ahead of schedule.

3:26That's fun. That's cool. Drake may looks really good. We all said maybe he could be Josh Allen ask and he was this game really does feel like that was a measuring stick of like, is the Mike Vrabel era going to work? And obviously they, they passed that, that test at the time. And now this is like a, are you actually the one seed in the NFL? And so why I think this game is interesting, too, is it's like obviously the Bills are a great team and I think the Patriots are a good team, too. It's not like they beat the hell out of the Bills and just like upset, like, you know, kind of like tore away with that game.

3:54I think it was a three point game. It was 23 to 20. Like they it was very close. The Bills had some weird circumstances in that game. Like they lost the possession because they aborted a snap that Josh Allen fumbled. Like there was just it was a really, really close game. And so despite them being on the road, I'm actually not. It still makes a lot of sense that we default to like, yeah, Josh Allen is going to go beat the upstart team. Let's start with when the Bills have the ball in this game. And the reason I wanted to start on this side is that because of the fact that the Patriots have snuck up on us a little bit and they haven't had a great schedule.

4:24We haven't had a lot of like full scope conversations about the New England Patriots. It's been a lot of Drake May. And so this is one of the first times all season we're getting to kind of sit with what their defense is and talk about that a little bit. I think it's important on two fronts. Their defense has gotten good enough where it feels like this team is more interesting than it felt midway through the season. And there are a lot of layers to this we haven't even really brought up on this show. And I'll take full responsibility for that. Terrell Williams, who is the defensive coordinator for this team coming into the year, he was the defensive line coach for the Lions last season, ton of history with Mike Vrabel.

4:57He has had some medical stuff and has missed a huge chunk of this season. Zach Kerr, their linebackers coach, their inside linebackers coach, he's 37 years old, and he was an offensive coach in college for a little while. And he's been with Mike Vrabel a little bit. He's been calling their defensive plays for like a huge chunk of the year. This is a team that could win the one seed. And I don't think we have brought that up one time in the last 14 weeks. I take full responsibility for that. Do you think that has anything to do with part of the reason why we struggle to like figure out what the identity for the defense is?

5:29The fact that like we can't put like we because Terrell Williams was a defensive coordinator, obviously has to get pushed out because of medical reasons. And then it's somebody that nobody knows. You can't put name to face with like what the defense is supposed to feel like the way that if we say Steve Spagnuolo's name, everybody knows what that defense looks like. A style comes to mind. Bill Belichick. Yes, exactly. You can see it. Whereas with the Patriots defense, it's a lot of like you have to actually watch a lot of the games to start to piece that thing together. It's funny, too, because, I mean, Vrabel is not the defensive play caller, like you just said.

6:02But Mike Rabel is that type of coach where his presence just kind of looms over everything. And I'll admit it as well, like just over the course of his time, because obviously he coached in Tennessee for a long time. He's one of those things where like you associate the good stuff where you're just like, ah, there's Rabel winning on the margins. And you just sort of hand wave the other stuff, because I do think really highly of him as a coach. And it's just easy to fit a lot of stuff under that umbrella, even though it's not always necessarily the case. case in point, Mike Vrabel is not this team's defensive play caller, but he's just that sort of coach that can kind of paper over a lot of those details.

6:39Let's just talk about their offensive, their defensive identity a little bit, just for people who maybe haven't watched a lot of Patriots defense. And I think this is good information to know this is going to be a playoff team. Like we're going to have to think about their defense and high leverage moments over the next month. This is a team that has a really diversified coverage menu. They'll play a decent amount of man coverage, but it's not an overwhelming amount of man coverage. I think with the Lions background that's where Williams comes from and Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis, we think like man, man, man, it's actually at like a pretty league average rate.

7:06They run a really diversified coverage menu on early downs. It's like 20 to 30 % cover one, 20 to 30 % cover two, 20 to 30 % cover three and 20 to 30 % cover four. And so there is like a real Rolodex feel to it. And I think they've been hard to get a beat on when you look at just success and viability over most of the season, And since week five, the New England Patriots are fourth in the NFL in EPA per dropback allowed. Fourth. They're a top five defense in that metric. Here's why I think this is interesting timing. They have played the worst slate of opposing offenses in the NFL per FTN's numbers.

7:44And so this is a perfect measuring stick game when it comes to, okay, you've been really good defensively essentially since week five when Christian Gonzalez comes back. How much of that is the competition that you have faced? And how much of that is the quality of your defense? And I don't know if we'll find out the real answer this week, but I do think that we'll get a little bit more information than we have right now. Was that win against Tampa the closest they've come to like an offense that you respect? And the Bucs offense, especially their passing game, has been floundering for a long time.

8:15They're like a bottom seven unit. It's not what it was. But even just in terms of like personnel and proven pedigree. Yeah, well, I mean, even the bad bucks are a step up from the Titans, the Browns, the early season Panthers before they kind of figured themselves out. The New York Jets. Yeah, it's it's the NFL. You can only play who's on the schedule, but I think that is worth noting. In terms of identity, I think another interesting thing, and I think this brings us to the game we're going to talk about here. The Patriots early in the season were a really good run defense. And I think that was partially because they were loading up the box a lot more than they have been over the back half of the year.

8:52And I'm wondering, like, why they've arrived at that point, Derek. And I think we can talk about that as kind of a springboard to this Bills game. Over the first four weeks, they were playing with loaded boxes on, like, 31 % of snaps, which is slightly above league average. They were playing with light boxes on 43 % of snaps over the first month. Since week seven, so the back half of the season so far, the Patriots are playing with light boxes at the highest rate in the NFL. And so they've really kind of changed their approach when it comes to defending the run. And I think part of that is because they're so good personnel-wise at defending the run and some of the mechanics are good enough that I think they've realized they don't have to play that way in order to be a capable run defense.

9:31And I think it's helped them in other areas as they've tried to defend teams throwing the ball against them. And so they're, but in terms of personnel, in terms of how they've been built, I actually do think that's one of the reasons they're able to devote less resources to it. the question becomes when you're playing against a team like Buffalo, is that the case? Are you going to be able to sit there in some of those lighter boxes? Because in week one or in week four, when they played week five, that was not the case. Like they were in light boxes on like 30 % of their plays, which is half of their average over the last two months or so.

10:02So that's kind of where I'm at. I think the bills have reshaped their offense to be like, no, we're going to make you load up the box because that's the only way their passing game works, right? Is when they can load up the box, they can get under center. They can use some of their tight ends. and so I think it's important that the Bills do that and they did that in week five and the Patriots actually played a pretty good game of run defense in that game but I think the reason why it's potentially different this time around to me one you mentioned they're just playing a lot more light box stuff but also when they played in week five Keon White was on the team Milton Williams was still healthy and not on IR and Kyrus Tonga was fully healthy now Tonga has been practicing so he should play this week as well but he was an animal in that week five game and He's going to be a little bit banged up.

10:44Like every play, he's two yards in the backfield somehow. That's not an exaggeration. Awesome. Every run play, every single run play, he affected the path of the back. Like the 15 times James Cook had the ball. I watched those plays this morning. He's affecting every single one of them. That dude is an animal. He had Connor McGovern in hell that game. It was really, really bad. And so if he's going to be 80, 85 % of what he can be, and you don't get as many of those plays, I think that that's a little bit disruptive. And then they're just like they're kind of a team that is already a little bit lighter on the edge.

11:17And so if you don't have as many of the bodies on the interior you want, one, you're just worse when those guys are on the field. But you're just also less flexible. Like there were multiple snaps in that game where they had three defensive tackles on the field and use Williams as like the big end into the two tight inside. And then had 280 pound key on white as your, quote, weak defensive end like that. They just literally can't do that right now. And so I just wonder what it's going to look like if they're a little bit lighter and the Bills come out with two tight ends and Reggie Gilliam on the field.

11:45How's that supposed to go? Just a little context for Tonga. And there's always a lot going on with on off stats. Just full disclosure before I even mention this. Just good to keep in mind. But with him on the field this year, the Patriots have allowed negative 0.14 EPA per rush. Without him on the field, it's negative 0.03. For context, those numbers, the first one, that's the Browns' run defense. The second one is the Bears' run defense. So that is the gap in the quality of the Patriots' run defense when he is and is not on the field this season. A lot of moving parts, but it's a cool stat, so screw it.

12:20I like it a lot. The other thing I think that I'm looking at with this game specifically and what the Bills have been doing over the last couple weeks that I do think makes sense against this Patriots team, the Bills over the last two weeks have had their two highest higher under center rates of the entire season. They've had their two highest play action rates of the entire season. And because the Patriots play the run so aggressively, there's a lot of stunting. There's a lot of run blitzing. Those guys fly up from the second level. And I think that's one of the reasons they're good in that area.

12:49They are a little bit gettable against play action. They have a bottom 10 success rate. The Patriots defense does against play action this year per next gen. And you think about some of those explosives that the bills hit last week, where it's quick under center play action. You're flipping it to the tight end for a 25-yard explosive half a second after the ball is snapped. I like that version of the Bills offense. I want to see more of that version of the Bills offense. And I think it actually applies to the team that they're playing on Sunday in a way that really makes sense. I think it does too.

13:18Like, again, these are the Bills' best weapons. And I do think that the best version of the offense is when you can be a little bit more controlled and get some of these shots over the middle of the field. and again like you mentioned the Patriots linebackers they are good by virtue of they can like hammer away on rundowns and then get into second and eight and then all the lighter bodies in the back end and the quietly kind of good pass rush can really carry the rest of the defense but again if you can chip away at the chip away at the run game actually get them into attacking them with some of these crosses I mean they hit one Josh Allen made the incredible throw on the flea flicker the last time that these two teams played with Curtis Samuel over the left side but like that works in part because the backers are walking up to try to defend that.

13:58And so I think if you can get them a couple of times, that's probably the best way to handle it. You probably won't be surprised to hear this because you've been looking into it for the last few days. But do you realize James Cook is like in a league of his own when it comes to attempts and yards from under center? Like the only guy that's even close to him is Kyron Williams, which is not surprising. And I think that the difference between those is the Rams live that way. The bills are kind of inching to that world. I was I was pretty surprised to see that like he's taken 208 carries it's by far the most in the NFL from from with Josh under center and like I know they do that stuff but I was surprised to see just how stark it was let's get to the other side of the ball here number one thing you're looking at here when the Patriots have the ball in this game Derek is what I'm usually tempted to say that against the the Bills defense it's like oh it's going to be their run defense and it's terrible and all that stuff and I do think that applies a little bit into this game but I think I feel that a little bit less knowing that the Patriots offensive line is still a little bit banged up and they're probably not going to be able to move people.

14:59So to me, this is just a lot of like, can Drake may continue to find explosive plays in a way that very few quarterbacks in the league are doing right now. And this is a Bill's defense that like you can get explosives on them, both underneath with them missing, missing tackles, like safeties, missing guys, linebackers, missing guys, or just beating them over the top straight up with some of these, again, some of these safeties missing, missing their assignments and stuff like that. So I'm just looking like, do we get three Drake May explosives or do we get seven and they run away with this one?

15:27I think it's important to reframe where the Bills defense is right now as we get toward the playoffs. Because in my mind, I go to the same place very quickly that you just did, Derek, where it's like, oh, the run defense is bad. You can get them on the ground. That is undeniably true. No element of this defense is good right now. No element is definitively good. This is an undersized unit. We know that all season coming into the season. So you can push them around a little bit. Well, typically if you're undersized, maybe you're a little bit faster. Maybe you're a little bit better on the back end.

15:59Maybe you have a little bit more athleticism. They don't have any of that. And so this goes from a unit that has like kind of specific but important weaknesses, like it was even last year, to a unit that really has no strengths. And I think that's the first time we've landed in this place with the Bills defense. So they're an objectively bad run defense. They're 29th in explosive play rate allowed this year. 29th. The teams below them are the Cowboys, the Giants, and the Bengals. The teams just ahead of them are the Bears and the Commanders. Those are like the five worst defenses in the league this year, and the Bills are wedged right in between them.

16:37You don't want to be in that neighborhood. It's not a good place to be. And this is not a like, oh, they're kind of disappointing, and are they actually built for the playoffs? This is a different sort of defense for the Bills than we have seen in recent years. And it's only compounded by the fact that last year they amassed some of this because they had so many turnovers that they were willing that they were able to kind of survive. This year, they're like 10th in turnover EPA created overall, which is not bad. But I think it's done less to actually paper over some of the issues that are very real for this team right now.

17:09I remember talking about that in the summer. and every year you talk so much about how much variance there is with takeaways and you can't really count on it from year to year. The Bills have been able to count on it like for four or five years at this point, they are reliably among the league leaders in taking the ball away. And like, they're not bad at it this year. They're just not among the best in the league. And you see what a difference that makes. If you get even eight to 10 fewer turnover or fewer takeaways in a year, it can make a huge difference, compounded by the fact that they're also just not that good down to down.

17:43Joey Bosa likely going to be back in this game, which I think is big against Viderian Lowe, who's obviously a backup left tackle for the Patriots. My biggest issue, though, Derek, is without Ed Oliver, there just isn't much interior push from this Bill's defense right now. And when you watch Drake May, especially the last game that Drake May played, even if you're getting some early pressure off the edge, if he's able to step up and have little creases in the pocket, he is going to find them and find completions. And so the fact that it's really Joey Bosa and like kind of Greg Rousseau, and those are the only guys as pass rushers you're really scared of with this Bills team right now, Deion Walker's had like a nice rookie season, but overall, it's just not a group you're worried about.

18:23I just have a feeling that like this could be another big Drake May game because I don't know who on that defense really bothers him. I don't think anybody, because I will say if there's anything where you can still get Drake May right now, like, you know, we always look at all the splits. It's like, oh, can you play man against him? No, not really. Can you blitz him? It's like, OK, no, not really. Can you do all this X, Y and Z? The thing that does work against May is like if you pressure him, like if you can get home, he will take sacks. Like he's not a guy who's going to throw the ball away or like chuck it down the field the way that maybe Jordan Lovewell or whatever.

18:54Like he's going to hold the ball and potentially take sacks. He's because, like you said, very willing to step up in the pocket. He's very willing to scramble through the interior of the pocket. Some guys are a little bit scared to do that. But I think for me, that's not really an issue. And so if they can't. Either get interior push or honestly, this might be a game where I do just try to throw some blitzes at him because I don't think that you can really just man. Like even if you I know the Patriots receivers aren't great, but they're good enough against the state of this bill. secondary that if you do try to just play a lot of one-on-one ball, Drake May is going to put the ball where he needs to.

19:28I would try to heat up the interior a little bit and at least force him out of the pocket where you get a little bit more movement in the back end once things start kind of unfolding. We saw it last week, like some of the best stuff the Bills did are some of those DB blitzes coming off the perimeter. Like they needed to tap into that. Unfortunately, the Patriots are third in the NFL in e-paper drop back against the Blitz this year. Like there's just, there's not a good answer when you're in the place that the Bills defense is right now. You're grasping at straws on a lot of different fronts. I think Drake May would welcome that if they if that's what they try to do.

19:59And maybe maybe you don't have a choice. But yeah, I mean, the way he's been playing this year, the way he played against the Bills the first time, I mean, they made an effort to get after him in that game and he was able to complete those balls. He was he was eight of 10 for 149 yards on attempts of 10 plus air yards in that game. Like he was, he was just dialed in. And I guess, I mean, that's, that's the benefit of, of high variance play like that is maybe he won't be as dialed in. Maybe he'll give you a ball or just not be as accurate as he was in that game, but he's shown that he can do that.

20:33One just personnel thing to note, Spencer Brown is, has been limited in practice with that elbow injury. If he plays, that's big because you could feel him not being out there last week. Both tackles, I think had some tough moments. There were some highlight plays from Deion Dawkins last week, but the pass protection was not as good in that game as you would typically ascribe to a Bills team against the Bengals defense. And so I think getting Spencer Brown back this week, potentially, definitely something to keep an eye on. Let's get to the next one here. Packers at Broncos, another road favorite against an 11-win team.

21:05Packers are two and a half point favorites in this game. Dave, why is Packers-Broncos our second game of the week? Can I just say real quick, I just I love the theme for this week that these are the best. These are the best two records in the NFL. And I think both the Patriots and the Broncos and their fans would say they don't have as many believers as they should. Like not that not enough people are bought in on these teams. Well, here's your opportunity, everybody. Well, it's not just us either. Like the people like with the math and with doing the math in the back of a napkin in Vegas. Like they also believe that you are not as good as the teams coming to play you.

21:41You are home underdogs. And this is a game of the week for so many reasons. I just said, just like the Patriots, the Broncos are vying for the AFC one seed. They have 11 wins. The Green Bay Packers is playing as well, are playing as well as anybody in the NFL right now. It's a statement opportunity for Denver. It's a potential Super Bowl preview. Let's just call it what it is. I mean, especially and we're going to talk about this later in the show, but the AFC doesn't look like the haunted house that it used to be or could be in the future. It looks very, very winnable. And I do not blame any Broncos fan for thinking, why not us right about now?

22:17And so this is a huge opportunity to announce that about yourselves. But again, there aren't many teams in the NFL playing better football over the last three or four weeks than Green Bay. I cannot wait for this one. No offense to Bill's Patriots, but this is the one for me. These are two fantastic games. What time are these games happening? Do we know? This is the 3.30 game on CBS, and Bill's Patriots is a noon kick. Oh, man, that's kind of unfortunate. That's all right. All right, let's dig into when the Broncos have the ball in this game. We were talking about this before we started recording, and I think there are some disparate opinions of the game the Broncos offense had against the Raiders last week.

22:55Dave, you were a fan of the Broncos offensive output against the Raiders last week. I don't think Derek was quite as impressed. What about the game from Bo Nix and the Broncos offense last week kind of made you more of a believer than you were going into it? Maybe this is the SEC football purist in me. Like I just, I watched a lot of ground and pound LSU offense in my day. I don't know. I really enjoyed watching Denver against the Raiders on watchback of this most recent game. And I found myself thinking, this is it this is how you take advantage of of what Bo Nix is as a quarterback at this point in his career and I just I was so impressed with some of the play design the way they wanted to play the games I mean you realize the Broncos had seven possessions in this game like they just they choked the life out of the Las Vegas Raiders and I'm not trying to convince anybody that's a super impressive thing to do obviously the Raiders are a mess but just the way that they were in control of this entire game.

23:59I mean, I'm pulling up the drive charts right here. I mean, they had drives of 14 plays, 10 plays, 14 plays, 19 plays, and now you're getting to kneel down territory. And go back and watch this game and you're not going to see any incredible throws or like jaw dropping moments. And I've seen plenty of discourse about it this week as well. Bo Nix either turned down or didn't see several like huge chunk opportunities. Right. But my counter to that would be, isn't that kind of what we were killing him for earlier in the season is like the performative deep balls and like either. That's not what I was killing him for.

24:41Well, you'll get you'll get your chance. All I'm trying to say is this was. I thought this was an inspired game plan from Denver. And like if you have Bo Nix, you have a guy who can win with his feet, who can extend plays and gain yards as a runner, in addition to buying time for himself. And it was such a beautiful blend of, I did say beautiful, Derek, just for the record. It was such a nice blend of like letting Bo be that guy, giving him easy throws. Sean Payton schemed up so many fun, easy buttons for him in this game. Like whether it's little Jordan Humphrey motioning as like a flat guy off of a play action or using your fullback as a as a check down on play action just to pick up like four and six yard gains you use his ability as a runner you're laughing but like this is how you win you when you have like one of the best defenses in the nfl it was such an inspired ability to like i said just choke the life out of a game with an offense that just doesn't come off the field you waxing poetic about all these check downs i love this i just i can't derrick is like in serious pain over there.

25:48Okay. Real quick before Derek combusts, it honestly, it reminded me a lot of plenty of Eagles games that we've watched over the course of the year. Who I also hate. Are we trying to look beautiful or are we trying to win games? Because I know the Eagles have a Super Bowl trophy. AJ Brown ain't walking through that door. Lane Johnson ain't walking through that door. I think there's a serious talent gap in terms of what you can ask from the quarterback in Denver and what you can ask from the quarterback in Philadelphia if you want to win the Super Bowl because of the players around the quarterback in Philadelphia.

26:19So I've been thinking about this a lot because I knew we were going to preview this game. And I've said plenty of dumb shit on this show since before the season started. But our opinion of the Broncos from August feels pretty dead on right now, where we said, I specifically remember saying, I feel great about this team in the big picture. Like, I think they're an offseason away from some really big things. I don't know if I trust the offense to win them a Super Bowl just yet. And now this is a great opportunity to find out because I did love the game plan against Las Vegas. That was Las Vegas.

26:54And now I'm curious to see if you can beat a team like Green Bay asking as little of your quarterback as they did against the Raiders. That's where I want to get to in a second, but I want to hear Derek's thoughts about what you just said about last week. So first of all, I think my contention is that a lot of the short passing was because Bo Nix chose to do that. I don't know. Like, I think Sean Payton called a little bit. Yes, it was a lot of checkdowns. It was the first third down of the game. He like auto throws the swing out of the backfield when he probably shouldn't. Jamal Adams is all over it immediately and just misses the tackle on R.J.

27:25Harvey, which that was another problem in this game. The Raiders just missed a bunch of tackles. A little bit after that, they had this just like hitch seams concept where the two outside guys run hitch. That's the one I'm thinking of. Yeah, he left the touchdown on the field. There's I'm not debating that. he does it there in the red zone I think potentially later on that drive they have a four verse concept with two of the tight ends to the left hand side the safety is to the other side to the field he peeks it at the snap and then just doesn't want to throw the seam and I was like dog and I think he threw that one in the flat as well he just does stuff like that a lot he is to me I think my frustration is that it's not that he's terrible and does everything wrong right like I think he's generally accurate obviously he can make some plays outside of the pocket that are really impressive he generally doesn't turn the ball over he's just not an ambitious football player and that it's it's hard for me to watch with my sensibility my my push back to this I and I I love this dichotomy because I think we agree my only point is you can win a hell of a lot of football games getting this caliber of play out of your quarterback when you have the defense that the Broncos do and and all of the inherent advantages that they have yeah I mean the guy I averaged 4.9 yards.

28:40Excuse me. No, he averaged five yards per attempt. Like, I'm not trying to say this was some inspired quarterback performance, but if he makes you four or five plays with his feet, whether that's as a scrambler. He made three. He made four to five plays out of structure as a play extender in that game that I thought were impressive. And I counted at least two nice throws from the pocket. Like he had like kind of the no look thing. He threw 40 passes, by the way. we're not trying to win MVP here. We're trying to win football games. He had a few nice throws from the pocket. Are we trying to beat the Raiders or are we trying to beat the Patriots in the championship game?

29:17That's what I need the answer to. This is where I say, I'm mostly giving you shit. I land like firmly between you guys here where I was not offended by the performance from him or the Broncos offense last week. I thought they, against the Raiders, where all you have to do is not beat yourself, it's a fine way to play. And I think that's exactly what it was. The question is, when you're having to go against defenses where the standard has to be a little higher than don't beat yourself, what does it look like? And I think what Derek brought up to me is like a perfect example of the gap between the Raiders and the Packers and why this matters in a situation like this.

29:52So last week, the Broncos had 356 total yards of offense. 60 of those yards came after missed tackles by the Raiders. They had 11 chances to make a tackle behind the line of scrimmage per next-gen stats. They converted on five of those attempts. They had 12 missed tackles the Raiders did over the course of that game. The Packers have 77 missed tackles on the season. The Broncos. That's like, what, six a game? Yes, on the season. The Broncos throw the ball short of the sticks on 37 % of their throws, 29th in the NFL. That lack of ambition is fine against the competition they've faced so far this year.

30:29And this is not a subjective thing. If you look at the numbers, according to the FTN data, like through offensive DVOA, the Broncos have played the worst slate of opposing defenses in the NFL so far this season. The Packers are a different test than that. And so I think this is like a perfect one week into the other test for this team, exactly in what you're saying. Like it works against the Raiders, can it work against the Packers? And I still have my questions about that. And that's where I sit with this. I have my questions too, but I was watching the Raiders game back and I was like, And I found myself thinking, this looks a lot like what the Bears tried to do to the Packers last week and were pretty successful at.

31:11And that's what I want to see is like, can you build this thing out of getting just enough in the run game, utilizing a lot of play action, which nobody did more play action than Caleb did against the Packers last week. But the Broncos, I mean, they've been leaning heavy into play action. They had 13 play action dropbacks against the Raiders last week. Look at the structure of those play action plays, though, and look at where the ball goes on those play action plays for the Bears and then the Broncos. It's very different. I think that is fair. But I think the Broncos aren't going to win this game without Bo Nix being willing to make at least a couple more ambitious throws.

31:46But I don't know. I want to see what this looks like because I was intrigued by what I was seeing in this game. And I'll say it one more time. I know the Raiders are not the greatest litmus test, but I don't know. I found myself enjoying it. and wondering if it could carry over. I think the point about the run game is where I would go first in terms of like the Broncos' best path in this sort of game. The Packers' defensive line, especially the interior, especially without Devontae Wyatt, you can push those guys around a little bit. Like you can get movement on those guys and you can bleed out the game.

32:19And I think that's that part of it where the Broncos, if they have a 50 % rushing success rate in this game, the way that they did last week against the Raiders, I think that to me feels like the best formula because that offensive line can move people, even with a backup left guard in the lineup right now. Like there still is a level of physicality to that group that I do think makes them a tough matchup for a Packers team that while is good in terms of EPA per rush on the ground, the success rate, you can feel how teams can kind of string together these five and six yard gains against them. That's why this to me, like the most analogous game, like potential, if you want to call this a trap, maybe for Green Bay is the Panthers game.

32:59The Panthers are a team that can grind you down six yards at a time and have a guard that is playing at like an insanely high level. For them, it's Damian Lewis. For the Broncos, obviously, it's Quinn Miners. You have one guy that you can just like, OK, we're going to plow Colby Wooden or Carl Brooks or whoever it's going to be over. And we can get six yards at a time. You're not going to get the pops because the linebackers are great fitters. Evan Williams is phenomenal as a deep fitter. Like they do a really good job at the second and third level of patching the holes once they're there through the interior of the offensive line.

33:27but I think the run game yeah the best way you want to win this game is chipping them away it's six yards at a time and again today's point the Bears did almost do that last week if Kingsley and Exbare doesn't make an unbelievable third and one stop on the final drive like the Bears might have a chance to put to tie that game like it just that is the best way to do it according to Ben Johnson grind it down win or lose it yeah fair yeah when I was watching the Packers game against the Bears back on defense the the thought that I had and I would be excited about this if I were a Packers fan. What they remind me of right now is the Spags Chiefs defenses over the last few years.

34:03And I say that for a few different reasons, but I think the conclusion is this is like a playoff ready defense. And if you look at like the actual attributes of it, to me, it starts with the fact that their back seven is the best tackling group in the NFL. We keep talking about it, but it shows up every single week. The DBs tackle, they play with a certain mentality. The linebackers play downhill. We know that that's how the Chiefs have been for years. they limit explosive plays in the way that the Chiefs often did at their best over the last four or five years. The Packers are one of the best teams in the league at doing that.

34:32The details are like extremely well-coached and game plan specific. When I was watching Enigbare reroute guys at the line of scrimmage consistently in that Bears game to disrupt timing, like that's a small thing that when you're having to win one game tournaments in the playoffs, that's the shit that ends up mattering. And I think a lot of that stuff was true last year. The difference now, Nate and I did a show, I think it was like two or three years ago where we looked at all of the benchmarks you have to hit if you want to win the Super Bowl. And one of the things that every Super Bowl champ has is a defensive player that can get five pressures a game during your playoff run.

35:05Even if the Packers were solid last year, they did not have that guy. They have one of those. When you spend what you have on Micah Parsons, I think there's going to be like weekly check-ins as to whether that was worth it. We're going to find out if that was worth it in the NFC Championship game. Like that's the time when you need one of those guys. And so I think a lot of their DNA, even if they're not as much of a blitzing team, they're a very good pressure team. I think the plans that Jeff Halfley has to kind of put teams in a bind remind me somewhat of like what Steve Spagnuolo can do. And so I think there are a lot of different elements of this defense that remind me of who the Chiefs have been when they've been at their best over the last four or five years.

35:43And not that Micah Parsons really needs any more. We all know how good of a pass rusher he is. But if you look just this year, according to next gen stats in the fourth quarter, Micah Parsons has seven sacks that leads the NFL. If we all remember the Cardinals game, he basically ended that game in the fourth quarter by himself. Midway during the season, he has 32 pressures in the fourth quarter, which is second in the NFL. He has 13 quick pressures, which is first in the NFL. The Packers traded for like a Mariano Rivera level closer and they've gotten it. Then that doesn't even get to the stuff of like when they drop him out into coverage and it frees up with their guys like he is.

36:17every bit as good as he was supposed to be for them on that side. I mean, Halfley said he wanted him to play Inner Sandman in the fourth quarter of these Packer games. That does remind me, too. One thing I wanted to shout before we move on, I did think the Broncos struggled with stunts and things like that in this Raider game, like Max Crosby and Tyree Wilson both just had free runs at Bo Nix. And he's athletic enough to deal with that, but I bet Jeff Halfley is going to try to find a way to scheme up some of that stuff, And Micah Parsons is the type of guy that even the most athletic quarterbacks can't always get away from.

36:50It's funny that we just spend so much time on the least interesting half of the ball and the side of the ball in this game. Let's talk about when the Packers have the ball, the one of the best offenses in the league against one of the best defenses in the league. Dave, you want to see the Broncos just kind of do what they do against Jordan Love in this game. To quote you, I want this to be a f*** you game on both sides. Really? I want Vance Joseph and the Broncos to be like, yeah, you're great against man. you have 18, 20, whatever amount of touchdowns it is coming against man coverage. You always beat teams when they do this.

37:22You haven't played us yet. And then on the other side, I want the Packers to be like, bring it. We've toasted everybody that's tried this against us and we'll do it to you too. That is my, that is my hope for this game. These guys get paid a lot of money to think more about it than that, but that's what I want to see. What I like about Vance Joseph is he's willing to be flexible in some of these moments. And I do think that I wouldn't be surprised to see him kind of throw some something of a change up if he thought that was the best path forward against the Packers team that's kind of diced up man coverage and for me I think if I'm trying to pin down why the Packers have been so good against man coverage this year I would say two different buckets one Jordan Love is just making ridiculous throws right now like his ball placement and the aggressiveness has just been phenomenal over the last few games and really consistently when teams have played man against them and I think the other part of it is I think they've done such a good job Green Bay has of building in flexibility into the offense.

38:17And they do a great job of undressing teams and figuring out, all right, what are you in? If it is man, do we have something on or some sort of check or something we can get to to take advantage of this? Whether it's the amount of motions that they use, the just personnel and alignment. They'll do a lot of like nub formations with the tight end and like a one by three to get a man zone tell. There'll be an empty. No of the back at number one. That'll be a man zone tell. And if you look back at like the Christian Watson slant touchdown from last week, he's flashing a little hand signal. Jordan Love is at Christian Watson in that moment being like, all right, we have this here.

38:49And so I think it's a combination, Derek, of the quarterback plan at an extremely high level and an offense that's built in a bunch of levers to be much, much better in this area than they were last year. and getting the speed back into the offense is why they can why they can get it to pop the way that they've gotten it to pop because they were doing a lot of this stuff earlier in the season it's just that it was all in service of like six yard gains and converting a third and four by a yard just like little stuff like that where they were getting these little tells but again it was to like barely maybe we get a screen that that works or we just throw a little slant into a zone now when you have guys like christian watson back into the lineup jaden reed back into the lineup Luke Musgrave actually kind of becoming something a little bit as a tight end guys who can really stretch down the field now when you get some of these indicators it's like okay now we know that we can just get a foot race with a really good player and now we can go have our on that play that you just mentioned have a one-on-one with Christian Watson where he just beats Charnsey Gardner Johnson in a foot race and that's that like they couldn't do that in week seven because those were like Malik Heath or Romeo dub snaps in a way that like that those players just don't do that the way that Christian Watson can you talking about it being in service of six-yard gains.

39:58In three of his last four games, Jordan Love is averaging at least 11.4 air yards per target. In three of his last four games. The last two times before this past month that he was in double digits was in week one and two when they felt like the best team in the league. This is the version of the Packers offense that we want. And it's funny, when I was watching, re-watching that game against the Bears last week and then thinking about the Broncos defense, are we at a place where Patrick Sertan like has to shadow Christian Watson in this football game? I was about to ask you that. I think so, actually.

40:33I think so. And you know what? Listen, I'll say really quickly, Sertan is incredible. He was banged up a little bit earlier this year. I think he's playing it like slightly less than his top level, which is still like a Pro Bowl level. Well, he's still shadows, guys. Mike, he's following Brock. Brock, of course. I'm just saying. Week last week. It's more gettable maybe than he would be in a typical. He tore his freaking peck and missed like three weeks. I'm sure he's not all the way healthy. There's no way that he is, but man, we've talked about this a few times over the course of the season. Like, I feel like Riley Moss draws a lot of criticism because he's the guy that can get beat.

41:06That doesn't make him a bad player. He just plays with Patrick Sertan. If you can get Christian Watson lined up on Riley Moss, like I don't want that for him. I don't want Riley Moss to be a good player who gives up like the 48 yard gain or, or draws the DPI on Christian Watson. and it's like, ah, Riley Moss sucks. And it's like, does he? Or is Christian Watson on an insane heater over the last month? He is on an insane heater. I think that's why I've landed in this place. Two other things about this side of the ball quickly before we move on. One, just kind of level setting as we get toward the playoffs here.

41:39The Packers interior of the offensive line, I think has kind of found their personnel they're probably going to roll with here. Sean Ryan's playing center because Elton Jenkins is hurt. But Anthony Bell in their second round pick this year, who really was at loop working exclusively at tackle for majority of the off season. in, he is playing right guard over Jordan Morgan. It seems like that is going to be the case for the rest of the season. And so that's just something to keep in mind as we think about this team and kind of their final form. They played against the Lions. It was the first game with those two guys as the starters.

42:07And the Lions gave them some trouble on pressures, on like overload looks to that side. And so they've only really played one real pass rush with those guys in the lineup because they had to play the Bears last week. This is a very good test against John Franklin Myers, those edge players, all of those guys from the Broncos. I do want to see what the interior looks like. The last thought I have here, I think this is a Luke Musgrave game. Has that sentence been uttered before? He hasn't made an explosive play in like multiple weeks in a row before. Fair. But I look at what the Broncos have done against tight ends this year.

42:42They are 20th in EPA per drop back against tight ends. And there are moments from games this year that you can kind of look back to. The Giants game is one of them. The touchdown they gave up to Brock Bowers last week. If you get tight ends of vertical, kind of getting back into areas of zone defenses that have been bled out, the Broncos are gettable in those moments. You get Hufanga in space. You get the linebackers in space in those situations. And the Packers in each of the last couple of weeks, they hit two explosives off play action to tight ends. One to Josh Lally, one to Luce Musgrave. And then there was the one that fell incomplete where Musgrave is threatening the post safety all the way down the field.

43:16And so an explosive or two from the tight ends, I think, is a part of the formula that the Packers can use if they want to win this game. All right, before we get to a few games that we're going to hit one thing from this week, let's take our first quick break.

43:33I'm going to kick this off. Lions at Rams this week. My one thing from this game is I love this game. And it's like no more complicated than that. I've really come to enjoy this matchup. Last week in week one, Puka got hurt almost immediately. It kind of took the air out of the game a little bit. But when they played in the playoffs two years ago, I remember wanting this game. And when it actually happened, I was so excited that it was on the slate. I went to that game. It was phenomenally entertaining. There's just something about this matchup right now that I find incredibly satisfying. I think it might be some of the Goff Stafford stuff.

44:08Like, I still think that part of it is compelling. And I just think stylistically, like I really loved watching these teams over the last couple of years. And so this matchup between these two teams, specifically these two quarterbacks specifically. And then you think about the stakes in this game, like if the lions were to win this game and they're five and a half point underdogs, but if they were to win this game, they are very likely going to be in the playoffs. And so I don't know, like as soon as when I see this thing on the schedule, there's just like a smile on my face. And I still feel that way.

44:36Even if the lions are a slightly diminished version of who they've been over the last couple of years, that playoff game was like a perfect play. Like it's a perfect game. It's 24, 23, very offense heavy in the beginning, kind of became more defensive in the second half. Lions had to get a first down at the end. Just that's the aesthetic that I'm going for in a playoff game. Just a good mixture of everything with storylines galore. I hope, I think at this point, the Rams are, yeah, a step, a step and a half above where the Lions are. Maybe I'm wrong about that. I hope, I hope this is as great a game as that one was.

45:12No, I think that's actually a really good point because for me, this is a weird case where I think the Lions are like a 10, 11 win quality team. And I also think they're playing against the Rams and like I would comfortably take the Rams in this game. It's a weird like I maybe I just think that much of the Rams, but I'm kind of in the same boat where I just think like I also think they just kind of match up very well against this particular Lions team. I think there's two facets of that that I would point to. One, the Rams last year were like not a good team against man coverage. It was where they struggled the most.

45:42This year, they are essentially second in the NFL in man coverage quality per drop back per true media. Only the Packers have been better. Some of that is just that Puka has just been dominant in those moments this year in a way that he wasn't last year. I think that his play outside the numbers in some one-on-one situations has been really good. He's been bullying people on like comebacks and hitches in those areas. And so I think they just have a better plan there. I think Devontae has helped that way. The other part is, I would say, on the other side of the ball, I think this is just a really, really good test for the Lions' interior offensive line.

46:14So this is a group that has a ton of movement. They've been tested this year. They've struggled at times this year. And now you are going against one of the most dynamic fronts in the league from a personnel perspective, but also just the amount of stunting, the amount of twisting. And so I think if the Lions can hold up against that group, I think that is probably the first step in them getting this one. Get to the next one here. Dolphins at Steelers. Derek this one's on you one thing you're looking for in Dolphins Steelers so I'm going to start with how they win this game and why that matters I think the Dolphins do win this game because their run game has been phenomenal which is funny because how long did we complain about the Dolphins run game like ah they can only do it in this specific way and they can't really move people and all this other stuff I think the offensive line right now with Aaron Brewer playing the the center playing the way that he's playing with left tackle Patrick Paul being a really good second year player.

47:07They can actually move people a little bit off the ball and there it's probably the best offensive line has ever looked with Mike McDaniel. So you couple that with like how well he schemes this stuff up. I mean, Mike McDaniel, some of the run game stuff that he just the wrinkles he adds in terms of where the split blocks are coming from and how we're moving guards and how we're just getting eye candy before the snap. Like he continues to do an incredible job. They are, I believe since week 10 is when I pulled this, they are third in total EPA as a rushing offense right now over the last four or five weeks.

47:37Like they are they can truly win games off the back of this. And they've won, I think, four in a row now, mostly off of the back of their run game. So I think against the Steelers front that TJ Watt is obviously he's being now evaluated for like a lung issue and is in the hospital. So he's not going to play in this game, I would assume. And then in terms of the schematic stuff like these linebackers, you can get them running around dizzy with all the motions and stuff like this just feels like a game that the Dolphins can win. And if they win that, it means they throw a wrench in the Steelers, potentially winning the AFC North.

48:10And the Dolphins get multiple other games that they can do this with, which is the Bucs later in the year. I believe it's week 17. They can stop them from winning the South. And then they play the Patriots in week 18, which the Patriots are safe. But if the Patriots lose that game, maybe they don't get the one seed. So the Dolphins like randomly becoming late season spoilers is kind of fun. Number one, right off somebody named Watt at your own peril. Those guys are psychopaths. Just fair enough. That's a great point. Number two, I just, I adore the Dolphins turning into a football hipster favorite because I feel like this team confused and disgusted so many people with what their plan was and what it looked like in the early going of the season.

48:51And now they're kind of a darling. Like, how did that happen? I just think that they play extremely hard still, which is that's been one of the most encouraging things about this. Derek and I did them on the hangover a couple weeks ago. Like the way that the defense is playing right now, I think the, just the attitude, the fact that they easily could have folded up shop a month ago and they decided not to do that. And so I think the way that the guys are playing, just full stop as a part of this, I think the defense does a lot of interesting stuff. Like I think Anthony Weaver has done a very good job to structurally, especially considering some of the limitations of the talent that he has on that side of the ball.

49:27And I think part of it is that all we've ever really wanted from the Dolphins is more of like, and it's not an at you run game in the way that the Bills run game is, right? But just a little bit more physicality on that side of the ball in order to give them some flexibility when they need it. And they're finally starting to tap into that. And so now you have all the cool shit that was interesting about the Dolphins offense over the last couple of years. And you're combining that with a lot of interesting stuff on defense and a physicality to the offense that kind of makes it all viable in a way.

49:59They're still not good, but like, I think a lot of the elements here form the foundation of a Dolphins team that I am much more interested in moving forward. And that's kind of why I'm kind of a supporter of the idea of bringing McDaniel back and seeing how this goes. If you get a different quarterback, I'm in the same boat. Like if, if the scheme stuff looks good, they're playing hard and the offensive line looks good. Isn't that all of the like infrastructure type stuff we talk about team building? It's like, hey, man, looking better than you would think. I kind of love that this is an island game, like the records of the teams involved don't get you super excited.

50:36But this could be like a crowning achievement for Mike McDaniel's resurgence or like a horrible failure sort of situation, depending on how this goes. And it'll be nationally televised. And we'll see. Obviously, it's been kind of an up and down year for Jonas Evanea, their rookie left guard. But he's a big, powerful player. You know, if he gets a little bit better in year two, Patrick Paul's been good at left tackle. You can see kind of the bones of something there. And their center, Aaron Brewer, Derek mentioned him. He has been one of the best centers in football this year. Like he absolutely has a chance to be like a first team all pro based on how he's played.

51:10He's always been a good player, but I think he's added play strength this year. He just he's a different sort of physical force than he's been in years past. And I think it's kind of given the entire rushing unit a more of a like, but you just said before, more of a f*** you attitude than they have had in previous seasons when it's required a little bit more smoke and mirrors for them to run the ball. Get to our last one here. Chargers at Chiefs. Dave, one thing you're looking for in Chargers Chiefs. Here's my one thing, which I can't believe I'm going to say out loud. Chargers are a playoff hopeful nine and four after that wild win against Philadelphia.

51:47this might be their most manageable opponent left on their 2025 schedule. It is wild. They are at the Chiefs. They follow that up with at the Cowboys, home against the Texans, at the Broncos. Of those four teams, I don't think it's crazy to say the Chiefs are playing the worst overall football right now. And that ties into my larger point where if an AFC West team could possibly view the Chiefs as their most manageable opponent heading toward the end of the season, then I'm okay letting go of my fear of the Chiefs making me look silly. Does it make you feel any different that the Chiefs are four and a half point favorites in this game?

52:26Honestly, I kind of I I would go as far as to say I almost expect the Chiefs to win, especially if the Chris Jones that played Sunday night against Houston shows up against what we've seen from L.A. protecting Justin Herbert. That could be very, very bad. But I'm still comfortable saying I think it's over for the Kansas City Chiefs. And I've been the least comfortable saying that out loud. But that's where I find myself after this most recent round of games. My thought about this is, and we were talking about this earlier this week, I think a lot of people have been in the, I don't know, a lot of people, some people have been in the mode of just like, well, you know, the Chiefs are going to have to do this and this and this to make it.

53:04You know, if they win out, I'm over that. Like, I'm going to start caring about their playoff hopes again, like when they've won three of these games in a row. So I'm glad you bring that up because I've said it a few times on the show, like in the back of my mind, we've seen the Chiefs do this before where they make people burying them look silly at the end of the year. but that is that comes in situations where in 2021 you're one and two after three weeks or six and seven in 2023 remember they lost to the Raiders on Christmas and it was a five alarm fire they fell to nine and six after that game check check check these numbers out every team of the chief of the Mahomes Reed era in Kansas City has had a winning streak of at least five games every team in the Mahomes Reed era has also avoided multiple losing streaks in a season these Chiefs have done both they're not going to hit a five-game winning streak it's not possible to do anymore and they've had multiple losing streaks like this is this is a different beast and as reluctant for good reason as we might have been at points in the season they're just it it's it's over for this team.

54:16The left tackles on IR, the right tackle and, and Trey Smith, you're all pro right guard are dealing with injuries. Wanya Morris went out for the season during the most recent game. Your pass catchers are all banged up. I don't see it. And I've been, I've been reluctant to say that for a long time. And ironically, I'm saying this heading into a game that I think they'll, they might win. They'll, I think they'll probably win this game with everything going on with the Chargers. They're set up to be favorites in each of their next four games. If they win those four games, The athletics numbers have them with like a 47 % chance.

54:47It's still not even a 50 % chance to make the playoffs. It's still not even a 50 % chance that they went out. And so I'm at this place where it's just like, wake me up in week 18 if like it's better than that. Like I'm just, I'm tired of sitting here and being like, oh, they'll be fine. It's going to work out. Like we should give this team the benefit of the doubt. They just don't deserve the benefit of the doubt right now. We're just not in that place. If they were to do, like if they were to win out and make the playoffs and then put a run together, it would be one of the most remarkable things I've ever seen, even by chiefs standards.

55:15I'm not even entertaining that at this point. Fair. I think I'm not even entertaining that at this point. I'm tired of it. They're just too far behind the eight ball. Like I think if I power rank teams in the NFL, I would probably still put them in the top 10. Like they're still not a team I want to play. It's just when you put yourself this far behind it, like realistically, I don't really have to treat you as seriously as a, uh, obviously a playoff contender, Superbowl contender and all that. So yeah, if they get the miracle run and we have to start talking about their wild card matchup and stuff like that okay we can reopen the door if they can do this but like I'm just until we get there you know who cares I'll put it another way because so many times like you see this happen where the team puts it together and they're like don't you feel silly and everybody's like yeah I guess we never should have doubted the Chiefs if they were to do this and be like don't you feel silly I would be like no I don't feel silly at all Y 'all did this to yourselves.

56:05And I know what I watched for 13 weeks. You should feel silly for having it take until Christmas to look like a different team. So I'm finally at that point with the Chiefs. I think that ship has probably sailed. I don't know how much that says about Sunday just because as banged up as the Chiefs are, the Chargers are also like a weird mess. That's my point. It's just like the Chargers are such a weird team. We're like, the Chargers are absolutely capable of dragging a team into the deep end and drowning them because of what their defense is. Like the defense is well coached. They're going to make it hard on you.

56:35This is a Chiefs team that really struggled against the Chargers in week one. I wouldn't be surprised if that happened again. But would we be surprised if the Chargers had a 55 % pressure rate allowed on offense and their quarterback had to be a superhero again? No. Like it's just both of these teams are in very strange places. They feel so far away from the best versions of themselves. And it's just a tough place to be as somebody who, if you were looking at the schedule for this game on August 15th, you would have been like, yeah. And that we're just so far away from that. So that thought about the chiefs not deserving the benefit of the doubt brings me to a take tribunal.

57:12I kind of wanted to dangle out in front of you guys and see what you think. I think we're beyond that mindset for the entire AFC at this point. Like think about going back to the table conversation that we had, what, a month ago now, three weeks ago now, every single one of those teams, the Ravens, the Chiefs, the Bills. It was kind of like, oh yeah, they deserve to be here. They have the quarterbacks. They'll be in it to the end. They'll be the teams that are most dangerous as we get to it. And then the Bengals, the only reason we don't feel that way about them is they were too far behind. But for so long, the AFC specifically was so incredibly quarterback-centric.

57:52Think about the teams that have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl for the last 25 years. It's mostly Brady and Mahomes and even beyond them even a step down from them it was a Peyton Manning driven conference it was a Lamar Jackson driven conference it was a Josh Allen driven conference it was a Joe Burrow driven conference now Ben Roethlisberger for a while Ben Roethlisberger and like the NFC was always the opposite of that you know the NFC always had these complete teams that those were the ones that often would break through the Eagles did it a couple different times you know the Rams with Stafford, I think it's kind of a mix, but like the Rams in 2018, the Falcons were like this machine on offense that went beyond the quarterback.

58:31Like the AFC was the quarterback conference and the NFC was the complete team conference. This was true for a very, very long time. And now we're just in a place where that's not the case. Like the quarterbacks don't necessarily deserve the benefit of the doubt in the AFC. And I'm not even sure Josh Allen does with the current state of the Buffalo Bills. And it's just an incredibly weird place to have reached. But I think we're kind of undeniably there. I think about it all the time, typically on my commute, because I'm like when I commute to work, I'm usually listening to a football podcast and I think about our table shows.

59:05And when we cut the most recent one down, when you talk like specifically the Broncos and the Patriots, and we know their strength of schedule concerns, we know their warts. I'm not taking anything away from that. But as the season has gone, even from the time that we cut the table down, because when we did that, you're still in a world where the Chiefs will pull out of this weird spin that they're in, or you're still expecting the Ravens to get better, or Joe Burrows toying with the idea of coming back earlier than expected. We're firmly in a new place now where I can look at what the AFC playoff picture looks like and be like, okay, I don't love the Broncos or the Patriots, but so what?

59:46If you don't have to run a gauntlet of Patrick Mahomes followed, or let's be real, Josh Allen followed by Lamar Jackson, then Patrick Mahomes is waiting for you at the end, it doesn't look like that's going to be the case this year. And going back to what I said when we previewed the Broncos game, like I still don't, I can't picture them lifting the trophy, but I don't have a lot of reasons to say like, oh, they don't have a shot of getting there. You know what I mean? Like looking at what the path looks like, I don't blame anybody that is daydreaming about that as a Bronco fan or as a Patriot fan.

1:00:21I think the teams that are most scary to them right now are probably in the NFC. I mean, the Broncos are home dogs to the Packers this week and there are better teams than the Packers in the NFC. I think the Rams are one of them and I think the Seahawks are in that same general conversation. I mean, the Bills are really the only team left and I think that makes it... I actually have a question. If the Patriots come out of the AFC, are they a complete football team or is there just another one of these quarterbacks? That's actually a good thought. I think we're not in that place where he hasn't established one of those guys yet.

1:00:51And I think that's maybe why we're not quite as comfortable with the idea. But I'm definitely getting to a place where he's kind of kicked down the door and maybe we're having a very different discussion by the end of the season. I'm open to that happening. I just don't think we're all the way there yet. I got to see what they are. He's got to win the playoff games. I got to play a playoff game or let alone like play it, preferably win it like he hasn't even been in one. Not to say that he can't be that guy, but I just can't put him there right now. I think that's true. I think I'm bucketing into broad of terms, Derek.

1:01:22The Patriots are a quarterback driven team. It's just a quarterback that has snuck up on us and is just a different thing than we expected him to be. And so I think we're kind of coming to terms with that right now. when you haven't accomplished it yet it feels it feels a little crazy to put him there but yeah when I'm imagining the world of like what a AFC run looks like for the Patriots it's like he probably goes on an insane heater he needs to they are a quarterback driven team he's just not one of the quarterbacks we're used to this is on I'm gonna use a word here that I think people would probably give me shit for I almost think that Josh Allen is in is in sort of an unfortunate place right now as the last guy standing.

1:02:00I like this. Because there is going to be this unbearable wait as we get into the playoffs for him to do it this year because none of the monsters are waiting at the end of the road. And if he doesn't, he's going to get excoriated for it. And I don't know if I believe that he should because of everything that we just said about the current state of the Buffalo Bills. But it's going to happen anyway, whether I like it or not. I was how we feel about it doesn't matter. All of the morning TV shows, all of the commentary, this is going to be an interesting six weeks, whatever it is, for Josh Allen, because none of the other monsters, none of the other big bad quarterbacks look like they're going to make the playoffs.

1:02:45It's just him. And by the way, they could still change that if they beat the Patriots this weekend, but it's looking like he'll be a wild card as well. And so the expectation generally, not from necessarily us, but from the football viewing public is OK, Mr. MVP, Mr. Four Touchdowns a Game, run through the playoffs. Mahomes isn't here. What's stopping you? Well, the answer is the defense, but nobody's going to want to hear that shit. And I agree with you. This is this is a little bit of a no win situation for the Bills unless they win the Super Bowl. And it's not just the defense. Like, I think that it's the lack of pass catching talent.

1:03:21Like there are limitations for this team. And that kind of brings me to my next thought about this is that I feel like this season has really pushed the limits on how much we can believe this idea of it's all the quarterback, it's all the quarterback. As long as we have that guy, we'll be fine. And this is not like a broader kind of vague philosophical thing. This informs team building and has for multiple years for these teams. If you look at what the Chiefs have done, to an extent, what the Bills have done, what the Ravens have done, the thought process, I think, has been as long as we give this guy the right offensive line and the right infrastructure and protection, we can skimp on certain types of pass catchers, right?

1:04:07Both these teams have invested in guys, but they haven't really become the players that help the quarterback in Kansas City and Buffalo and even in Baltimore to an extent. And I'm not saying that like these guys don't have enough help. I just think that we're at a place now where every quarterback needs help from the pass catchers. Every single one, no matter how good you are. We've thought that these guys are like beyond that. Like they'll make it work with whoever they have. I almost think we're getting to a place where defenses are getting too good for that to be a thing. Like what I look at specifically is the Ravens and Chiefs have faced these two highest rates of man coverage in the NFL this year.

1:04:44And so defenses are just in this place where it's like, we do not respect the pass catchers and we do not think those guys can beat us. And I think that has caused some of the erratic play that we've seen from some of those offenses. And so I think this era of, well, we got the quarterback, that's all that matters. We can skimp in some of these other spots. I feel like that's coming to an end in a way because of some of the revolts that we've seen this year. I think because the defenses kind of have the schematic, it feels like the edge right now and you can't just have these like decent skill players that you can just move around and get whatever you want you need a bucket getter like really badly like like a guy like t higgins if he were to hit the market like blank check like you give a play because you need somebody like that in today's nfl and so again those guys don't actually hit the market but i think understanding why teams would want to go after like in the draft especially to like some of the guys that some of these teams are targeting like the zay flowers the xavier worthies the chiefs even signing the hollywood browns like i feel like you kind of need size again at wide receiver in a way that these teams mostly i know keon coleman is a little bit of a bigger guy but he didn't become that guy right he was supposed to be that guy and he didn't turn into that guy and so i don't even i'm not even like giving these teams shit about how they've tried to solve these problems they just haven't solved them and i think that there are times where Joe Burrow has been criticized because he needs these guys, quote unquote.

1:06:09I think a lot of quarterbacks need these guys. Look at what Dak Prescott is doing with George Pickens this year compared to what he did without a George Pickens. Like you can still be one of the 10 best quarterbacks in the league and need one of these guys on the outside to help make you right because of how difficult it's been to attack defenses right now. It's not a moment too soon, honestly. And if you weren't, if you hadn't brought up Dak, I was going to, I mean, as somebody who has been tied to his entire career. That's been the argument, often the toxic conversation about him, but it could apply to Jared Goff.

1:06:41You could apply it to Jordan Love and the Packers search for receivers over the years. You could apply it to Justin Herbert. Pretty much anybody who's not Patrick Mahomes. And when his day in Canton comes, I would start the Patrick Mahomes speech with dragging the 2022 and 2023 Chiefs offenses to a championship. It's wildly impressive. And it's why I think he's the best quarterback in the world. But over a big enough sample size, even a guy like that needs help. And it's refreshing in a way to look at that and be like, yes, this is really hard. And defenses have adapted to the early going of his career.

1:07:21And even Patrick Mahomes needs a little bit more than what he's getting from the Chiefs pass catchers right now. And guess what? That's OK. It's it's OK. They all do. I think that's where we are with all of these guys. And I think that's why this has been the season where we've kind of had to reframe our understanding of which teams are going to be there at the end and why they're going to be there. We're going to take one more quick break and then come back and spend a little time on Sicko Street.

1:07:49We can only start this in one place. Seems like Phillip Rivers is going to play football this weekend against the Seattle Seahawks. It's my favorite development of the season so far. It's crazy. It's absolutely crazy. When he almost came back to play for the Niners like three years ago, it was crazy. He's a 44 year old guy who has not played football in five years. He's going to roll off the couch and now go play against arguably the best defense in the NFL. Just a true like a ball, a ball knowers, ball player, just the ball player in every sense of the word. Like he's he's like an animal caught in a trap who's like gnawing his leg off to go play football.

1:08:29And it's like he had this accomplished career. He played for God knows how many years. He's 44 years old. He's having a successful high school coaching career. They're playing the Seahawks, by the way, arguably the best defense in the NFL. And I'm so confident none of that shit even matters to him. Like Philip Rivers just wants an opportunity to go go throw the old pigskin around for one more afternoon. And I, for one, love it. I'm not sure how many more ardent Philip Rivers supporters or believers there are than me in this space. It's been like part of my personal, it's been part of my like football media personality for like 15 years at this point.

1:09:10And so there is part of me that is undeniably excited about this. Like it is very cool that Philip Rivers is doing this as somebody who's always loved Philip Rivers. The comparison that I would make though, I mentioned this to Barnwell yesterday. It feels like when a band you love is like coming back after 10 years and doing like a cash grab reunion tour where I will go. Right. I'm going to buy a ticket. I'm hoping it's going to be good. But there's also part of me that knows it might be an embarrassing disaster. And that's where I sit right now. Like this could be horrific on Sunday, but the chance, the slight chance that it could be very cool to me makes it worthwhile.

1:09:52You know, I can tie this in really beautifully because last night I went to see cake. And guess what? Short skirt, long jacket. It hits. It hits. It was great. I don't care that their heyday was 20 years ago. I was I was locked in. It was awesome. I just hate this because the end of the Philip Rivers era, like the final Colts season, the final Colts game, the fact that, by the way, one Philip Rivers gave the Bills a hell of a run in that playoff game. and then his career effectively ended with him being down three points and having to drive the length of the field with like two minutes to go that's Philip Rivers that was his whole damn career it was poetic that it ended that way and now we have to see it end a different way like I if he plays a great game obviously I'll love it but I just I was a perfect lasting memory already and I don't know if I want to see something else like even if the Seahawks brutalize him and it's obvious that he's lost even more zip on his ball than he already has.

1:10:49Like, I think the thing I love about it is I genuinely think Philip Rivers doesn't care. And I said that on Twitter this week when all this news was coming down, I was talking about, cause you know, people were curious about whether his hall of fame clock would reset. And the minute he's on the active roster, it does. And I don't really care about having a debate about whether you think he's out like worthy of the Hall of Fame. That's not really the point. But Philip Rivers doesn't care about that. He's just like, let's go play some football. He's close with Shane Steichen. They're friends. If he can help him out, he's going to go do it.

1:11:22And he's if he gets his shit rocked by the Seahawks, I kind of like he'll still have a good time being on a football field doing football things. And I think that's one of the things I've always admired about Philip Rivers. That part of it, the part of it with the Shane Steichen, that's my favorite part of this in a way because I do think we can joke all we want and the fact that he showed up and is clearly 15 pounds heavier than he was when he played and was joking about how he didn't know how much he weighed and he said, oh, I wasn't running away from people anyway. That part of it is all funny.

1:11:57I do think there's something kind of beautiful about him coming back because Shane Steichen is in Indianapolis. I'm sure people have picked up on it this week. J.J. Watt's tweet about the fact that they've been talking weekly because Philip is running the Colts offense for his high school team is like, that's incredible. But if you, as somebody who has had football conversations with both of these people over the last, you know, five, 10 years or so, it's incredible how similar they are. Like when you have a conversation with either Philip or Shane, you're talking about like a specific play. And there was a throw that Philip made in the chiefs game.

1:12:31And like it, in like the 2019 season, that was like this incredible bender that he threw to an undersized receiver whose name I cannot remember. And I remember asking him about the play and he's like starting to explain like what the read was and why he threw it. And then as he's talking about, he's like, and you know, then he's, he's getting there and it's, and it's, they have this like uptick in volume and Shane is the exact same way. Like you'll be talking to them and it'll just be like this normal thing. And then they'll just get increasingly more excited about this like singular moment or idea.

1:12:59And they, more than anybody I've ever met in this space, just feel like soulmates when it comes to football. And so the fact that it's because Shane picked up the phone and was like, hey, I need you. He was willing to do this. Like, I do think there's something really f***ing cool about that. I think the whole thing is cool. And it could look terrible on Sunday. And I would still think it's really cool. So you think this is the only team Phillip would have answered the phone for? I think so. He didn't do it for the Niners, like, how many years ago? That's a good point. I hadn't considered that part of it.

1:13:30That's a good point. The throw is to Travis Benjamin, by the way. Hell yeah, of course. It was in week 15 of the 2019 season. It was a throw to Travis Benjamin. I just looked up my story from that year, 2018 season, excuse me. So I do love that part of it and I am excited to watch it. So we'll see what happens. Let's stick on Sicko Street here. Raiders at Eagles. Dave, you wanted to throw this one in here. Why is Raiders Eagles belong on Sicko Street for you? The parallels to the 2023 collapse are just getting eerie at this point for the Philadelphia Eagles. In 2023, they lose by 20 in Dallas.

1:14:10Then they go to Monday Night Football on the road. They lose to Seattle with Jalen Hurts throwing an interception at the death trying to win the game. Drew Locke game. It's a very memorable game, weirdly. It's definitely in the pantheon of random games that ultimately didn't mean that much. It was on Monday night, right? Yeah, it was great, but just a phenomenal game. So then you lose that. You come home for a home game against a bad team that plays in the desert in the Arizona Cardinals. Flash forward to 2025. You blow a 21-0 lead in Dallas. You lose a heartbreaker on the road on Monday Night Football, both on the West Coast, by the way.

1:14:50Jalen Hurts throws an interception at the death, trying to win the game. You come home to play a bad team that plays in the desert, the Las Vegas Raiders. And if all of that wasn't good enough, sounds like Kenny Pickett's going to start for the Raiders. Former Eagle Super Bowl champion Kenny Pickett is going to start against the Eagles and try to really, really ruin their season. It feels like we're doing this every single week with the Eagles of like, oh man, how much worse can it get? How much more, how much more like it can always get worse. Yeah, exactly. How much more can people be freaking out?

1:15:25And I feel like we've said this every single week. This would be like just the ultimate like height that this could reach the volume around this if they were to somehow not even just lose this game, but make this game closer than it should be. it's it's not rock bottom until every single person in the world is certain you're there and I'm not certain we're there yet you can lose to I will say losing to the Kenny Pickett Raiders is probably about as slow as it gets I don't know if there's anything below that I'll go as far as say with with all of the drama and with everything we've seen from the Eagles I firmly trust in them to win this game fairly comfortably and that's how I know that it can definitely get worse because if they find a way to screw this up, I don't even know what to say.

1:16:10We're very much in a, it's the worst moment of your season. It's the worst moment of your season so far. The story of the 2025 Philadelphia Eagles. All right, let's talk about what we want to know coming out of week 15. Dave, why don't you kick us off? One thing that I want to say to you guys before we get to what you want to know, something I think you need to know, if only because we don't want everyone yelling at us when this comes out on Friday morning, Christian Benford added to the injury report for the Bills. Jesus Christ. Toe injury. So the best player on the Bills defense We legit had a conversation today Where we were like who's the best player on the Bills defense And we all said Christian Benford How many good players are on the Bills defense right now without Ed Oliver?

1:16:48Without Benford I don't know I would have said like three Can I have Joey Bosa? No Because who knows if he's going to be playing He's coming back or at least he's supposed to If I can't have Joey Bosa that's not great I'll give you Greg Russo Yeah I'll give you half of Joey Bosa So maybe half of Joey Bosa. What are we at? Like two? I mean, I think that's kind of the state of the Bills defense right now. All right. What do you want to know, Dave, coming out of week 15? I want to know if the Jacksonville Jaguars can be a big, boring favorite. Two games this week have the biggest spread. Not surprisingly, I think you could guess one of those is Seahawks-Colts.

1:17:29The other one is Jags-Jets. It is not Eagles-Raiders. It's not Texans-Cardinals. It's not Niners-Titan. titans jaguars jets has a 13 and a half point line it's gone up actually it was 12 and a half points a couple days ago and people were like yeah give me that action i'll bet on the jags which is insane i don't like that that's so deeply uncomfortable right now so i i want like this is i was looking through the score uh the the games and the spreads before we do our weekly preview show and I saw that it was 12 and a half points and I said that's a lot for the Jags to be favored by wonder when the last time that happened was they've been five they've been favored by 10 on and off over the years um they have not won a game as a 10 point favorite since 2017 just to give you an idea uh they also they haven't been favored at all by double digits in two years The last time they were favored by more than 10 points, week 16 of 2007, it was the Garrard, Fred Taylor, MJD Jags going against.

1:18:37I love those teams. Going against Jamarcus Russell. I legitimately believed that that team in 2007 was going to beat the Patriots in the playoffs. I legitimately believed that. And then Tom Brady went like 22 of 25 in that game. He'll do that. He'll do that. this is an insane it's like I can't believe it's been that long and I can't believe people are betting on the Jags to be favored or yeah like they're betting on the Jags to win by by two touchdowns and they have like they've won boring games right like they they blew out Carolina they blew out the Chargers they blew out Tennessee but those were normal spreads like they were an underdog in a couple of those games like they were an underdog against the Chargers nobody was expecting them to win that game by 29 points.

1:19:21Vegas expects them to win by 14 points, which is, that's wild. All you need to know is that I really am believing and buying into this team. And so the moment that that started, we're probably f***ed. I want to know. I want to know if the Jags can be the game that I stopped looking at halfway through the first quarter because I'm just comfortable with where it is. Because that is not the Jags historically. I have loved watching the offense recently. I have loved watching it. being the Jags guy is really fun until they become competent and have the burden of expectation and now it's like oh god what are they going to do to make me look like an idiot that's how I feel right now my what do I want to know coming out of week 15 how bad does this get for the Ravens oof are we going to be in a place by the end of the season where they win this one maybe they win out even the Steelers take care of business They missed the playoffs, but it's like, ah, we dug ourselves too big of a hole.

1:20:19We left ourselves not enough margin for error. You know, just one of those years. Or do they lose this game? Maybe even lose one more down the back, down the stretch here. You're talking like a guy who's looked at the final month of their schedule. Have you? No. After this Bengals game. Oh, Patriots, Packers, Steelers, Jesus. Yeah. Good God. So the answer to your question is it could get bad. So how bad does this get for the Ravens is my question. if they lose this game to the Bengals and then let's say they drop I don't know, I was going to say one of the Patriots or Packers games and maybe even both of those games let's just say one let's go two and two the rest of the way out and it's ugly in those two losses I'm just wondering what the conversation is going to look like around the Ravens by the time we get to the end of the season because it does feel like I don't think anything crazy will happen I think John Harbaugh will still be there I think he should still be there but is this going to be a scenario by the end of the year where Ravens fans a huge portion of Ravens fans feel the way that Steelers fans have felt at the end of the season for the last couple years like what does the percentage of that look like with the fan base and I think the final month of the season here and what they look like will go a long way in determining that if for some reason they were to finish 7-10 you're 100 % confident no crazy changes are coming?

1:21:34I'm not 100 % confident I just don't think I would support or embrace that I think that they've been too good for too long and this is like a weird kind of aberration Maybe it's a sign of what's to come. Maybe this is like the first step down, but I just think I would not do it. I don't think that anything could happen over the last month that would make me think that's the right move for the organization. That's where I'm at. You'd have to get blown out in all of these games for me to feel like this is a deeply like big organizational issue. I think we talked about before and we broached this like three or four weeks ago.

1:22:03It's like, I'll give you a season to have a year like this where it's a little bit disappointing before I like start hitting panic buttons. Yeah, I tend to agree with that. Derek, what do you want to know coming out of week 15? I just want to know what Dak Prescott versus Brian Flores looks like. We these guys, we have one of the most insane defensive play callers in the league who has only turned up the heat on the pressure stuff over the last half of the season. They were not good when they weren't doing it early in the year. So Brian Flores said, all right, we're going to start blitzing a ton again versus Dak Prescott, who is more willing than anyone in the league to just hang in there versus the blitz, throw stuff into tight windows, try to really beat fire with fire.

1:22:42And this this coach versus quarterback matchup hasn't really happened. They played in twenty nineteen when it was like the Dolphins team that was actively tanking, basically versus versus Dak in that moment. And Dak didn't have the greatest game. But on the other end, like I think Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard both ran for one hundred yards. So we haven't really seen like 10 year veteran, awesome gunslinger version of Dak Prescott versus one of the coolest defensive coordinators in the league. I just, I want to see what it looks like. This is going to be like all 22 cinema type stuff. And the Vikings defense last week, like again, the Vikings overall looked a lot like the team we expected them to be coming into the season.

1:23:21They're playing as Washington, right? I think that's a big part of it, but they're healthy. I do feel like there's enough going on with the Vikings where it really does increase the level of interest in a matchup like this. And so I will absolutely be there's I have a feeling that might be a hangover situation for us there. Oh, we should we should say that we can sit with it. Right. Say Derek's going to he's going to flip on the tape of that game and just politely turn off the Vikings offense filter. Like, nah, don't need to watch that. I'm going to forget to prep the other games for the hangover.

1:23:53I'm just going to watch Cowboys offense versus Vikings defense for like four hours. It's Sunday Night Football. There you go. Yeah, there you go. Locking into the hangover right now. It's already scheduled for the hangover. Perfect. I love it. All right. That is all we've got for today. Sincerely appreciate all you guys tuning in. We will be back here on Sunday night. There will also be a Thursday night football recap live on YouTube tonight. So if you guys missed that live, encourage you to listen to that. Watch that on Friday morning. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening.

1:24:25We'll talk to you soon.

1:24:34We'll see you next time.