Week 16 Preview: Unlikely AFC division leaders step into the spotlight

0:28Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. under the hood about the Texans offense and whether we think they have enough juice to make that defense viable in the playoffs against some of the better teams in the league. Hit a couple things on Sicko Street, including a little conversation about whether you'd rather have Jackson Dart, Tyler Shuck, or J.J. McCarthy as your 2026 starter, and then dug into what we want to know coming out of week 16 in the NFL. Let's get to that with me, Dave Hellman, and Derek Klassen right now.

1:02Taking you into the week 16 preview, two games of the week to hit today. Both of these games presented by BetMGM. Kicking things off with the Jags at the Broncos. Broncos only three-point favorites in this game at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars, which I find interesting. Dave, why is Jags-Broncos one of our two games of the week in week 16? Before we get into that, can we ask the league to treat this like more of a game of the week? that's my big takeaway heading into this weekend is Jags are 10 and four playing at the 12 and 2 Broncos to answer your question I guess it's the team that is currently the talk of the AFC going against the new hotness it's great the Broncos get that big win against the Packers we give them their kudos we take them seriously as a contender and now a team on a five-game win streak comes into Denver trying to do what the Broncos just did to Green Bay but it's a regional broadcast?

1:56And that upsets me a lot. And like, there's, there's stuff that goes into that. That's way above my pay grade. Like Fox has a double header on Saturday that goes into it. All those esoteric broadcasting rules, but like the mountain time zone and Duval County are going to see this game. And that seems like a crime considering the records of the team. It seems involved. Yeah. I don't think about that enough. Cause again, we're watching every game. And so it doesn't, which games are on and which places matter less to us. Fair. The fact that a general football fan without Sunday ticket would not be able to watch this game if they wanted to is kind of a bummer because it's a pretty damn good game, Derek.

2:30It's a really good game. And this is like a good spot for I know last week's game, obviously Denver like really showed up and played a really nice game against the Packers. I do think this is and maybe I'm wrong for this. This is still a Denver team that I kind of want a little bit of like do it again. And this is I think Jaguars team raises to the level of like if you beat them, especially if they beat them handily, then at that point, it's going to start to be like, all right, the resume is building to a point where it's pretty hard to deny how good this team is i would just love to go back to like week five i'm wondering what was the week where probably a little bit later than that but i would love to go back to that thursday night game after that when the broncos won like week 10 was a thursday night game oh broncos raiders yes which one was that would have been that was week 10 okay uh so that was november 6th and it was awful and disheartening and we said some pretty mean things on the live stream, which I don't really regret.

3:22No, it was in the moment. It was correct. It was one of it was ugly. It was one of the worst games of the 2025 season. And that combined with the Jets game that they played in London, not that long before that, as fun as the Green Bay game was and as nice of moments as the Broncos have had, like they've played some really ugly football at times this season. Let's tie this together. If you had told me after both London games, the one from the Broncos and the one from the Jags against the Rams, that it would be December 17th. These teams would have a combined 22 and six record. The Broncos would be cruising toward the one seed and the Jags would feel legitimately dangerous in the AFC.

4:00I'm not sure we would have responded to that in kind. I think it's a very pure representation of what this season has been. The fact that both of these teams have arrived in this point, considering how they felt at times in like the middle of October. We had a whole bit about that on one of the recap shows where like it's a long season. You know, it's it's a series of one month seasons, basically. And kudos to these teams. I mean, they've had their their ups and their downs. A lot more ups for Denver, just at least in the record. But it really feels like both of these teams are playing their best football of the season at the right time.

4:35Get to when the Jags have the ball in this game. Derek the number one thing you've got on your mind when the Jaguars are on offense against the Broncos on Sunday. I am deeply concerned about this offensive line versus the Broncos defensive line. And I think that's for a couple of reasons. One I think you can make the easy case of just like quality wise right. I think I think the Jaguars offensive line has been mediocre at best and gotten away with it in certain games. And I think Liam Cohen has really schemed around them very well. And in certain games he's done a lot of good like you know they can move linebackers with motion or formationally.

5:07They can beat teams all that stuff. but against teams specifically that can, you know, they have length, they can pop off the ball and bully you. They have strength up the middle. The Jaguars have really struggled to move teams off the ball, and instead they have gotten pushed into the backfield. Man, you look at this Denver front. DJ Jones is in the backfield all the time. Zach Allen continues to be one of the best defensive linemen. John Franklin Myers is like the ultimate just ass kicker D-line three. Like he just this front, the interior. It's really hard for me to see how the Jaguars are supposed to survive that both in the run game and in the passing game.

5:39And so I think if the run game struggles a little bit, there's a chance this starts to feel a little bit to me more like what we got from earlier parts of the Jags season where they end up in second and nines. Nick Benito can fly off the edge against whatever tackle. And then it starts to get a little bit herky-jerky from there. Yeah, Walter Little is practicing again. He missed, I think, a couple games of concussion, but he was a full participant in practice this week. So he should be back. So maybe that helps a little bit. But when you watch the Jags, the Jags have been red hot over, I mean, since they're by essentially, they've been one of the most productive offenses in the NFL.

6:11I mean, you look at some of the numbers in terms of them throwing the ball. They've been one of the best passing offenses in the NFL, but they have not played a lot of fronts since that time that would scare you. And this Broncos front is scary. There's no way around that. 21 of Trevor's 32 sacks taken this year and 71 of the 160 pressures he's faced this year. So 66 % of his sack total and 44 % of his pressure total have come across four games. And I would hypothesize those are against the four best fronts the Jags have played. They played Houston twice, Seattle, and the Rams. Houston, particularly the second time, and anybody that remembers that Seattle game in particular, just decimated the Jags offensive line and gave Trevor basically no chance.

6:59In the second Houston game and in the Seattle game, he faced a 50 % pressure rate. And yeah, like I said, I would suggest this is the first time they've gone against a front of that caliber since that point in the season where it looked like Trevor wasn't going to have a chance. So that is that is the number one thing I'm circling in Red Ink for this matchup. I will say over the last few games, I think that the Jags and Trevor specifically have looked really good against the Blitz. Like if you look at how quickly the ball is coming out, him knowing where his outlets are. I actually like the way they've been playing.

7:29The numbers aren't overwhelming, but I think that the process has been good when you watch them in those moments. But it's different when you're playing against the Jets and then you're playing against that Broncos front, doing some of those mugged up pressures when those three man games on the left side with Alex Singleton and then let Nick Benito and Zach Allen have one on ones on the other side. Like this is a very different sort of beast this week. It is like this is one of those. I think the Jaguars are a good team. I really like a lot of the stuff that they've been doing. I think they're playing very well on offense.

7:57And I think against 26 of the 32 defenses in the NFL, Liam Cohen can X's and O's them into a win. This is one of the games where the Broncos, Jimmy's and Joe's are probably a little bit too much for them to handle. I would guess. All right. Can I make my case though? Can I make my case for a while? I think this is actually, I want to see what the Jags can do in this game. When you go back and you watch what the Packers offense was able to do for the first half of that game last week. And then just overall, I thought the Packers were able to move the ball. The Packers had some really nice moments offensively.

8:27I actually think a lot of what the Packers did last week and a lot of what the Jags have been doing since the bye are some of the areas where you can get after the Broncos a little bit. Very specifically, the touchdown to Josh Jacobs last week from Green Bay. Trevor, Trevor Etienne, Travis Etienne. That is his brother's name. Trevor Etienne is a person. I knew that. But the Travis Etienne touchdown last week, they motioned to it, but it's essentially the exact same concept that the Packers used to score a touchdown in the high red zone last week, getting a linebacker and man coverage in that situation.

9:01Even some of the stuff that they've been hitting, I love. So since the buy, Trevor has been throwing 41 % of his passes, 10 yards or more in the air, which is the fourth highest rate in the league. And Derek, you and I have talked about this a bunch where I love this version of him, like at his most frustrating in his career, it's been because the offense has been a little bit too condensed. He's getting rid of the ball really quickly, them pushing the ball downfield and almost scheming aggressiveness into him. I've really liked that. And even some of the specific stuff that they've done, I'm thinking about like the big corner route out of 12 personnel that Brenton Strange hits against the Cardinals.

9:35Like that's exactly the type of down the field stuff where you can get some gashes against this Broncos team if you're picking on the linebackers and the safeties. And so I do think the natural way the Jags want to play and some of the designer stuff that they've done is actually the way that you can get a handful of explosives against this Broncos team. I do think that path is there. I think it could be there because like, again, like Riley Moss down the field, I think is decent, but you can get him a couple of times. That's one. You mentioned the corner out to Brenton Strange. One of the Packers best plays last week was they had Luke Musgrave running like a over that he turned back into a corner route against Talanoa Hufanga, which exactly who Fanga is going to drive on every crossing route and every dig route in front of him, which I think in a lot of cases does take things away for the quarterback or forces tight windows and i do think where i i think that specific thing like hufanga's ability to drive on routes is going to create a volatility in this game there's a chance that trevor and liam cohen do a really good job of attacking that and they get two or three chunk plays off of that maybe they get him driving down they throw a post route over the top something like that i also think there's a chance that trevor is a little bit reckless over the middle of the field and gives hufanga a chance whether he takes it or tips one up to somebody else.

10:49Like I do think for as well as Trevor is playing, he's a little bit more hell or high water than even Jordan Love can be into tight windows sometimes. I love how Derek is seeing into his future right now. Like he's making peace with what could happen in this game ahead of time. Here's what I'm going to call Derek on right now. Derek talking about Trevor and the Jags in this game feels like me talking about the Bears. He's hedging his best. He is emotionally hedging so hard right now. I'm actually a little bit disappointed in him. I'm scared now that they're good. Like, again, it's to the point where it's like, it's easy to talk up the Jaguars when it's a little bit theoretical.

11:25When it's a little bit theoretical and I'm picking moments, I'm like, guys, I swear that he's good. And like, I do think he's really good, but this does feel like a bad matchup where it's like, oh man, this could be a little bit of a step on the right game. To Robert's point, Denver has allowed an explosive to a tight end in 10 of 14 games this year. And we saw the Packers had their moments last week. Zach Ertz gave them fits in that Sunday night game. It was Sunday or Sunday night. Gave them fits a few weeks ago. So I do think that is a place where Brenton Strange could take advantage of them.

11:54The running backs too, worth mentioning. It sounds like Basial Tootin might not play in this game. Which is kind of a bummer because that pony personnel stuff they were doing last week was actually really fun. I think those two guys on the field between Talano Hufunga, Dre Greenlaw's a great player, and Alex Singleton too. But like you can get those guys in coverage. In space specifically, you can get those guys. Not having both of those running backs available, I do think that's a sneaky big part of this, but I do think the Jags can take advantage of that. The tight end stuff specifically, the Jags, since their bye week, lead the league in EPA per drop back out of 12 personnel.

12:25And the Broncos play mostly based to 12 personnel. They did last week against the Packers. I'll be curious if they do that against Jacksonville or they dare them to run it with lighter bodies on the field. That'll be an interesting kind of matchup thing. The other interesting matchup thing I'm watching, Derek, if you're Vance Joseph in this game, does pastor tan travel with brian thomas jr or jacoby myers honestly jacoby myers that take away so to take away trevor's safety blanket because because if you do that you might get one or two plays where brian thomas jr just cooks riley moss or julio mclaughlin if he's in the slot whatever i can live with that i cannot live with like 12 jacoby myers targets where he's just getting eight yards a pop eight yards a pop 12 here 14 i can't live with that.

13:08That's a way to lose the game. We did the same thing for the Packers preview too. And I mean, it makes sense to highlight. And I think, I think that's right. But as soon as you say that, I'm just like, okay, Riley Moss is going to get targeted on like three downfield shots to BTJ. And hopefully he wins two of the three. My thought is those happen anyway. They probably do. It just depends on who's covering him because against man coverage. And so that was one of the things we said going into the Jags, the Colts game, the Jags, even with Jacoby Myers in the field, they've been much better throwing the ball into windows than they had against man coverage over their last couple of games.

13:42They've been cooking 0.76 EPA per drop back over their last two games since we last talked about them struggling against it. And I thought the plan specifically against the Jets last week was awesome. Just what they were doing out of stacks and bunches, motions, just really good stuff from Liam Cohen. And a part of that formula is a couple shots to Brian Thomas Jr. down the field. And so I expect the Broncos to play a healthy amount of man coverage in this game. And I expect the Jags to test them down the field, especially if that's Riley Moss, multiple different times over the course of this one.

14:13And one small thing to the motion and shifting guys around part there, a couple of Green Bay's best plays last week were when they were shifting guys across and getting into like late trip stuff and forcing Jaleel McLaughlin to communicate. And then he got a little bit lost in coverage. There was one time where they got like a wheel route back behind him. They hit a flat route, I think on third down doing that. And he didn't realize he was supposed to go cover the flat. So potentially getting him to like take a beat to think I think could help them out as well. I'm excited to watch this matchup.

14:41It might just be a bloodbath up front and it might just be a non-starter like Derek is worried about. Even though, again, I think he's trying to steal himself a little bit. But I do think that there are some elements of this that are compelling. I and like we exist in a world and I think a lot of people that listen to a show like this probably have NFL ticket or red zone or go to a sports bar on Sunday. So you'll see it. But the the average NFL viewer not having easy access to this sucks because the Broncos are the favorite to be the top seed in the AFC and the Jags. They're right there if they win this game, by the way, like the Jags are still in play to be the top seed in the AFC.

15:18And you already said it. What a big test for them to prove that they belong in that conversation. And the fact that that few people are just going to be able to flip on their TV and just have it on a basic channel. It's just it's a bummer. Let's get to the other side of the ball here. Derek, my favorite part about this matchup, and I should have known this faster because I do inherently know it, but I was looking at some of the coverage menu stuff from the Jags this year, who are primarily a zone team, and I was like, oh, there's a lot of shared DNA with the Packers, and it's just like, oh yeah, you f***ing moron, like Anthony Campanile was an assistant on the Packers last year.

15:51It is the same sort of defensive DNA, and so the Broncos playing against a defense with a lot of similar principles, ideas, the way that they want to attack things two weeks in a row, I think is kind of like the first point I had in mind when thinking about that side of the ball, which I think, again, makes it a good like do it again game where it's like you're getting something pretty similar in a defense that I think is has had some pretty good moments this year. And for them to be able to go prove that I think is nice. There were I thought Sean Payton called like what felt like a perfect game against the Packers.

16:23I thought he was incredible, like some of the stuff that they were doing to obviously in the passing game, they had a really good day but I thought even in the run game there were a couple of moments where they would load the formation into the boundary the short side of the field you know trips tight bunches whatever it was and then they would get it to where whatever reason Green Bay was aligning their nickel still to the field like they wanted pass coverage to that side and so the Broncos were like all right if we know that you're gonna do that then we'll just run at you and they did a really good job of like attacking that weak part of the run fit they had like four or five pop runs that way so you had that on top of I thought the passing game obviously was really good Knicks I think there are a couple of things that I want to say about Bo Nix one obviously all the stuff that he was doing creation wise I thought was really impressive but there was actually a sequence in the fourth quarter that felt very in a good way not Bo Nix like to me with nine minutes left in the fourth quarter they had a third and two they run a double China concept so your number three runs a deep corner route and then the two guys outside of him run these like five yard just in routes under it and they've got man coverage and so it's third and two everyone's going to be open just throw one of your little fin routes and let's get the first down and I think in most cases that's what Bo Nix typically would do he throws the corner out to to Corlin Sutton he doesn't get it but they convert the next play but in my mind I was like them being that aggressive in that moment knowing that he's got the fourth and two after that I'm like you know what I did not think that he would do that previously and so for him to do that I thought it was actually a pretty cool moment.

17:49He felt very ambitious in that game, which is the way we keep coming back to it. Yeah. Yes. I think that the ambition as a passer was there. For a reason, I do want to dig into that when we think about how the Jags are going to approach the Broncos in this game. Some of the ways the Packers did, I thought was surprising. But back to like the Bo Nicks, just again, what felt important about his performance last week. I think the willingness to push the ball down the field in so many of those situations and the one element of his game that when we talked about the Raider game and we kind of had some friction about how we processed that game and the performance he had a couple weeks ago.

18:22I thought that the most important or impressive element of what he did against the Raiders that showed up again against the Broncos is what he's doing off-platform and as like a creative player somewhat out of structure. If you go back and you look at the numbers from last year, Bo Nix did a lot of scrambling, and he did a lot of, he had a lot of production on throws outside of the pocket. I want to say he was up near the top of the league, may even led the league in passing yardage outside of the pocket last year. But those plays were coming in two specific buckets that I think are worth acknowledging.

18:54One, design rollouts. Like the Broncos were using a ton of design rollouts for him as part of the offense last year. And two, it's when he was escaping pockets that he didn't really need to escape. I thought that he pulled the ripcord a little bit too quickly last year. Even if he was doing a lot of work outside of the pocket, I still didn't find him to be a very creative player. but if you watch what he's doing right now, the Raiders game was a good example and then some of the stuff he was doing, either running around or just changing arm angles kind of late in the down, manufacturing windows against the Packers, that stuff was impressive.

19:28And so when you combine that with the willingness to push the ball down the field, we're getting somewhere with like what he's giving you as an offense and I think that's been really exciting to watch over the last couple of weeks. That little flick that he had to Evan Ingram on third and 13, I come back to as like, it was like a four-yard pass. And Evan Ingram did the vast majority of the work, but the way that he like dodged pressure and just sort of flicked it at his hip level, I was like, yeah, that's great. And that is, it's creative and it's problem solving and it gets you into a place where I think they went for it on fourth and one on the next snap because he got that much yak, but type of stuff you really like to see.

20:10What I was surprised, Derek, about what the Packers did last week is they played a decent amount of single high. And even when they weren't playing single high, I think one of the big chunk touchdowns came against quarters when you do have what amounts to a one-on-one matchup in certain looks. And exactly what you're saying, the Broncos were doing a lot of trips to one side into the boundary, and then they'd have the isolated X receiver to the other side. It was Corlin Sutton most of the time. And they were picking on those one-on-one matchups pretty consistently. and I just wouldn't give them those one-on-one matchups.

20:40Like the Jags play a ton of cloud coverages. They play more cover six specifically, which is quarter, quarter and a half to the other side of the field than any team in the league not coached by Vic Fangio. And that is like the Vic Fangio thing. And so they are comfortable playing in some of these softer zone coverages. The Packers are too, but they didn't do a lot of it last week. And so my mind goes to this place of, I don't want them to be able to gash me down the field. Like I want to make sure that I'm making them bite it off chunk after chunk, because I think that pushes them to a place where you see that lack of ambition.

21:13And so I think that's the version of the Broncos offense. I want to make them be if I'm the Jags in this game. That's how I feel as well. Like I they are an offense where if you play a lot of too high, you make them play what's in front of you, all that sort of stuff. They can sometimes lull themselves into a sleepy game plan where they're kind of just chipping away at the run game. They're hitting these four and five yard passes, throwing their swing screens and like they'll control the ball fairly well. They just won't get enough explosives to make good on it. And if you're going to be one of those ball control teams, you have to be like perfect on every play.

21:45And I think their passing offense is good, but it's not the perfect degree where you can do that consistently every game. And so I would try to avoid giving them those those one on ones. It is tough with some of the formation into boundary stuff, because if you're having Cortland Sutton into the field, the wide side being the number one receiver, there's just so much space there. it's hard not to just take your one-on-one and pray that your corner can hold up. But because otherwise you're then having to take another defender kind of out of the box, out of the run fit to go and help inside. But so that's why I, again, that goes back to why I think Sean Payton kind of pitched a perfect game.

22:17But I'm interested to see how the Jaguars try to combat that this time around. Let's get to our next one here. Patriots at Ravens. Ravens are three point favorites at home against the Patriots. Dave, why is this a game of the week? the old guard versus the new up-and-comers? Two weeks in a row. Two weeks in a row, yeah. It is funny that Drake May had to play Josh Allen and Mark Jackson in back-to-back weeks. Hey, Drake May, you fell just short against the team that's owned your division for the last six years. Now go do the multiple-time MVP. And we've been waiting for this forever. I don't even want to say it, but come on, Ravens.

22:56Can we find an extra gear? Can we look like a team that's worth taking seriously? We've been waiting for it for a minute. You pitch a shutout, and I know the Bengals have issues, but you pitch a shutout against the Joe Burrow Bengals. My eyebrows are going up. I'm listening. I'm like the early part of the Vince McMahon meme. I'm like, okay, what do we got over here? But now can we kick it up a gear? So Derek and I talked about that game on The Hangover, and obviously you look at the box score and you look at the final score and you think, all right, that's a drubbing. That's really impressive.

23:24The Bengals still moved the ball pretty efficiently in that game, and they stubbed their toe a lot in plus territory. It's not to take anything away from the Ravens. It's more just to like kind of reframe or recontextualize what the Ravens are right now. And why that feels important to me is the Ravens are three point favorites in this game. I just don't know that the Ravens, I guess that at home, like that's a half point, right? If we're doing, if we're playing that game, do we feel like the Ravens are a better team, Derek, right now than the New England Patriots? Do you think that? Man, probably not.

23:57Like even with some of the flaws that the New England Patriots team has, like I still probably would favor the New England Patriots. If you if you guaranteed me 100 percent Lamar Jackson, then obviously it's a different calculation. But he's not that right now. So I would probably take the Patriots. Let's talk about the Ravens offense and use that as a way to kind of further this conversation, because I think that is where some of my concerns about this exist and my concerns about the Ravens ceiling exist. I think Lamar looked as healthy as he's looked since he got hurt last week against the Bengals.

24:29When he showed some explosiveness as a scrambler, I thought he looked better throwing the ball down the field than he's looked in a very long time. My issue, Derek, about this Ravens team and the level that I just don't think they have, it goes beyond Lamar Jackson. Like, I feel like they can't run the ball on their own terms. I don't trust a lot of the receiving options. They don't feel nearly as dynamic out of some of those 12 personnel sets as they did last year. And so I think we've done this too often, and I'm guilty of it with the Ravens this year, where it's like, if Lamar is healthy, they can get to that, oh shit, we're coming for you level.

25:05And Dave, I'm just not sure I believe that anymore. I'm not sure Lamar's health is the only necessary component for them to get to that place where I'm afraid of them. I think it would be. Like if you could guarantee me fully healthy Lamar, I think it would be enough. I just I tend to doubt we're going to get that at this point in the season, especially he's he's dealing with the flu like symptoms this week, which, you know, it's December 18th. Like that's that's hardly surprising. Right. With what we know about Lamar. But between that and he might look better, but I just I don't buy that he's fully healthy.

25:39And when you're playing a game every seven days, I just don't know what like when you're going to get to that level. But here's my question. Him not running, right? And him not being a design runner as part of the offense. If we're comparing the Bills offense and the Ravens offense right now, I think I'm more inclined to give the, oh yeah, the quarterback will get us there, benefit it out to the Bills because of what Josh Allen is doing with his legs and the fact that the Bills have like an engine of the offense because of their ability to run the ball down to down. If Lamar is not going to be scary on the ground, and he's not going to have that supernova feel to him in the way that Josh Allen does, why are we in a place where if the quarterback is right, that's all that matters with the Ravens?

26:22Because, and the reason I say that is just because, like, Josh is at his full power, and you see what that can do. And I know that the Bills running game is fantastic as well, but if Lamar's not fully healthy, does he have access to enough of the stuff that makes him great to make the rest of the offense threatening. I guess that would be my point. I guess my question is, how convinced are we that the lack of him running is solely based in his health? All right, so... It's hard to know. That's the thing is, I think it's more at this point like protective of his health. Because I actually think last week as a scrambler, I won't say 100%, but he looked dangerous enough where it's like, this can be a problem against a lot of teams, but that's kind of what I mean.

27:08but they don't want to use him as a runner. And so that's why I do think the Bills thing is important. Like the Bills, they have an identity in the run game. They're going to put either a six offensive lineman or three tight ends out there. They're going to run a bunch of duo at you. They're going to grind you down six yards at a time. James Cook is going to pop one of them. When the Ravens try to do that, they might get one or two Derrick Henry pops, but their grind you down runs are not five and six yards. They are two yards. They might get hit in the backfield. Like it's just a different calculation and it puts a lot more pressure on Lamar Jackson to be this like, okay, bud, you've got to go carry the offense, drop back 35 times a game.

27:42And that's just, it's a really hard way to live if he's not going to be fully 100 % and not have that many great passing options to go to right now. Read the stat, Robert. So the Ravens not having like an engine on the ground. We see that when we watch them play. The numbers for the Ravens running game are hilarious this year. So, so far this season, the Baltimore Ravens have the sixth lowest rushing success rate in the NFL. Bottom six for the Ravens. Wow. They are second in EPA per carry from the top. How that is possible? That's hard to do. It makes sense if you watch them, though. Go watch the Bengals game back.

28:20And it's Derrick Henry and Keaton Mitchell ripping off 24-yard runs or Lamar Jackson scrambling for a good chunk or nothing. Like everything that's not a huge chunk is getting three yards or less. So some of that is quarterback runs because quarterback runs are just inherently efficient. and so that plays into it. But even on running back only runs, they are ninth in EPA per carry despite being bottom five in success rate. And so you look at the explosive runs they're getting. On outside runs this year, they have 10 plays where a runner has hit 20 miles an hour. Only two other teams have more than five.

28:54The Dolphins with Devin HN have six. And so they need to be explosive. And I guess my question is, even if they're not going to be efficient in this game, based on the current state of the Patriots running a rush defense, do we think the Ravens can find two or three explosive runs in this game? I think that's their key to winning this game is the Patriots have a woeful run defense since Milton Williams got hurt. And I know that's not the hugest sample size in the world, but over the last few weeks, New England's 30th in rush EPA per play and 31st in rushing success rate. So however you choose to look at it, you can get them on the ground.

29:33And I would hazard to say, And I know that the Patriots are a good team, but if they can't get something resembling the Ravens offense that we got used to last year going here, then I'm really I'm out on it. And to go back to the point about Lamar, I guess the thing that would give me confidence that he's for whatever reason, just not that guy. Even his pressure to sack ratio is crazy this year. Like it's 26 and a half percent, which is a full four percent higher than any other year of his career. So even when he's moving as a necessity to get away from the pass rush, he's not doing it nearly as well as what we've gotten used to.

30:11And whether that is to protect him, which I totally understand, or because he just can't do it right now, I watch him. And I thought he looked good against Cincinnati, but I watch him and he just doesn't look like the force of nature that I got used to watching. And so I do think you probably have to lean on the run a little bit more. And if you can't do it in a matchup like this, it's just maybe it's just not your year. The other element of this, before we get to the other side of the ball, the Ravens have seen more man coverage than any team in the NFL this year, which is not surprising. It's also, this is a really good example of my pet theory that I think scrambling quarterbacks against man coverage is overblown.

30:46Lamar's scramble rate against zone coverage is significantly higher than it is against man coverage this year. And that, if you look at it, like that is true for a lot of quarterbacks. And so the idea that we can't play man against a scrambler, I think we have some data that kind of flies in the face of that, but that's an entirely separate conversation. whether the Patriots can play man coverage in this game the way they want to Derek becomes a question because they're a little bit banged up at corner yeah they're extremely banged up which is why like I know I said at the top I might think the Patriots are a better team the the particular injuries that the the Patriots have does let this be a pretty good Ravens game obviously uh Dave just laid out like all the run game stuff we didn't even get to like both of their starting linebackers are hurt right now or did not practice on Wednesday which could be an issue for them so you add that on top of like okay maybe we miss a couple of run fits and Derek Henry goes crazy and then in the passing game if Christian Gonzalez is going to be your only truly healthy like starting corner obviously he can take one guy away but I do think like if you could really get hands on everybody at the line of scrimmage with Marcus Jones Carlton Davis and really force the play to get into that like second third second of the play and force Lamar Jackson to hang on to the ball if he's not going to be 100 % as a scrambler we know how bad this Ravens offensive line has been and how quietly good the Patriots pass rush has been.

32:00I think that's where this game could get a little bit away from them. But again, that depends on the health of these corners. The last point here, this is a battle of the movable force versus the stoppable objects and the, I guess, movable object and stoppable force is what I meant to say. The bad version. Yes, we have the one of the worst red zone offenses in the league going as one of the worst red zone defenses in the league. The Ravens are 31st. They're scoring a touchdown on 44 % of their red zone trips. The Patriots allow a touchdown 75 % of the time their opponent gets into the red zone.

32:29And you saw it last week. We shouted it out, and the Bills went 5 of 6 in the red zone. So whoever gets the better of that, yeah, it's going to go a long way. I can't wait. 75 % is a wild number, but it really hasn't been a strong point for the Ravens this year. So it's a new opportunity to turn over a new leaf. Let's get to the other side of the ball here. when the Patriots have the ball in this game, Derek, do we think that we can learn anything moving forward from what the Bills did in the second half against the Patriots? Or do you feel that's a situation where a team pulls out kind of a bespoke game plan mid-game and catches an offense flush and maybe there aren't that many lessons to be taken from it?

33:12That's kind of more how I feel. I think the Bills did do a really good job of getting hands on people and putting too high coverage in the second half of that game. and I do think that that threw the Patriots off a little bit part of what they've done really well this year is throw the ball down the field but that to me felt like they kind of got caught and also I think part of me is just like I think Drake May and this offensive staff are so kind of ahead of the curve and continuing to get better that I just feel like one game plan is not going to like sink like teams are not going to be able to necessarily get on that get on them over that for the rest of the season I also think one interesting part in terms of trying to maybe pace that game plan from last week onto how this Ravens team is going to go.

33:51I think what the Bills did really well last week in the second half of that was obviously some of the coverage stuff, but they also did a really good job of condensing the pocket with some of their longer edge players and then also occupying the back with some of their blitzing linebackers and stuff. The Ravens don't blitz a ton and granted, neither do the Bills, but I do think schematically you're going to have to see, OK, can they occupy the occupy the running back well? But then the edge part is where I just don't think that they have it. Like the bills do have long edge players that can kind of condense you and keep you in there.

34:20I'm not so sold that the Ravens really have that caliber of pass rush right now. Yeah. I mean, Draymond Jones is kind of one of those guys, but then Mike green is like an undersized second edge player. And so, yeah, it's interesting. It's like, I'm with you though. I think when I, when I look at what the Ravens are, and if you think about some of the coverages of the bills were playing, like living in some of that, in that too high stuff. The Ravens are very comfortable doing that. I think the difference is when you look at the way that the Bills are playing two man in the second half of that game, some of like the variations of cover six, they were playing in that game on the other side to the quarter side, Maxwell Hairston is like pressed on the line of scrimmage against Keishon booty, disrupting timing the bills for a zone heavy team, press their corners at a really high rate.

35:03And so they're comfortable kind of living in that world and disrupting the timing of the passing game that way. The Ravens don't necessarily play that way. And so I don't think that part is as applicable maybe as some of the other aspects of the game plan. But I feel like the pressure plan and some of the simulated pressure plan where you're sending an off ball player through the B gap to occupy the back, hopefully Kyle Hamilton, like a good amount of times in this game. I do think that has to be part of what the Ravens do, because if they're going to try to bring a traditional four against what the Patriots are right now, their pass rush isn't good enough.

35:39And the Patriots offense is too good. I think you get shish kebab if you play that way. I think that's totally fair. And the pressure plan is going to matter. And if I mean, if you can't even make Drake may uncomfortable, it might be a long day. But I do just want to shout out the Ravens back seven. I got really excited watching them against the Bengals, like rewatching that game. We've brought them up consistently throughout the season. But Nate Wiggins rules. Nate Wiggins is a dog. I love watching that guy play. Obviously, we all know about Kyle Hamilton. Chido Owusie has been like a really underrated signing for them.

36:15I know he's on a one-year deal. I would try to bring that guy back depending on the price. I mean, he's an older player, so it shouldn't be hard. And then Malachi Starks seems like he's coming out. He made a play on Yoshivash in coverage in that game that made me make noises at my laptop. I was just like, ooh. Okay, Malachi Starks. So I'm very excited to watch these coverage players go against. The Patriots receiver core has been fine. It's been fun. I like a lot of what they got going on. Diggs has been better than I thought he would be. Keyshawn Booty has been awesome for them. But this could be a fun matchup where I think these guys could hang with what the Patriots have as far as pass catchers go.

36:56I'm with you on the secondary. And I think Elohi Gilman had a really nice game last week, too. I mean, there are a couple of plays where he's coming like all the way downhill on a crosser as the post safety in that group. Overall, they got a Darius Washington back in some spots last week. And so they've got some depth and flexibility. They had like a three safety look on like a third and 13 in that game last week. They can do a lot of stuff back there. It's unfortunate that this version of the Ravens secondary happens at the exact time. They don't have enough pass rushers. That's I find myself watching the Ravens being like, all right, where are they going to draft?

37:26And which rushers are going to be available to them? because that feels like a very obvious pairing when it comes to the draft. Draymond Jones has been their best pass rusher since they traded for him by a lot. When you look at the production and I don't know if that's where you want to be. Draymond Jones is like a very nice complimentary piece in your overall rotation. He cannot be your best individual pass rusher. When Draymond Jones is your third best guy and can be like your pocket pusher, your bully, he's awesome when he's your ace. That's not really where you want to live as a potentially really good defense.

37:56We're going to take our first quick break and then come back and hit one thing from a few more of these Week 16 games.

38:05Let's start with Packers, Bears. The only reason this isn't a game of the week is that it was a game of the week two weeks ago. And so doing like the full game of the week treatment on a matchup we just saw didn't feel like the right use of our time. But you absolutely could have pinned this as one of the games of the week. The implications of it are massive. This is Robert hedging, Derek, just to be fair. Yeah, hiding it a little bit in this section. He's like, we don't need to give it the full treatment because there's too much on the line. We just had two extended conversations about this game like 10 days ago.

38:36It just didn't feel like the right use of time. Basically the same game minus Micah Parsons and minus some receivers for the Bears. I know, which we can dig into in a second. But Derek, this is all you, buddy. The one thing you were watching in Bears-Packers on Saturday. Way to go. Hey. God, that feels weird. That's gross. right there the only reason i know that is because i've like built my saturday evening plans around it and had to that a good man uh so for me this is it has to be about uh michael parsons not being there right so i think i think with if any team lost a pass rusher of this caliber the automatic response would be like okay we got to turn up the dial um as a pass rushing unit i think that is especially true when you talk about green bay where their non-parsons pass rushers have been pretty bad all year and even if you compare it to this last bears game parsons had eight pressures in that game nobody else had more than three and so obviously you would think okay we got to turn it up the problem is that in both years that halfley has been there they have not really been a team that sends five or six pass rushers a lot and this year they have the fifth lowest blitz rate like it's just like they'll do simulators and funky stuff and get to their fourth rusher in a weird spot they're creative but not aggressive yes great way to put it they'll do weird stuff but it's you're ultimately still getting four rushers a lot of the time and a lot of that this year specifically was built on they would drop parsons in weird ways and manipulate the pass rush plan because of that obviously that's going to be off the table and so i'm wondering how much they turn up the dials in terms of uh of blitzing the the problem is that caleb is pretty good against the blitz he is seventh in epa per drop back this year fourth in explosive pass rate and he scrambles more than anybody in the league against the blitz his success rate is a little bit lower because he will try to take those chunks but that's that's just more of like a play style thing not really like a he doesn't see it that's just like a he's going for the home runs and so I do worry with some of these Packers secondary players them not being able to get home trying to throw these extra bodies at him we might get like a pretty gash or be gash kind of game it's interesting because I think that the second half plan last week where they use play action on like there's two weeks ago second half plan two weeks ago where they use like 70 play action the Bears did uh in the second half of that game I think some of that is driven by we need to just wad stuff up and make sure that the protection plan is right with extra bodies on top of this being a good counter off of the run game.

40:52So when Parsons was not going to play him, I thought was, oh, do they maybe spread it out a little bit more than they were willing to in the second half of that game? But now without Burden and Rome, I actually think being in heavier personnel, running the ball a shitload and trying to be in 12 and living in play action, even without Parsons might be the correct approach in this game. The Colston Loveland game. I joked about it earlier today, I want 50 runs and 12 Colson Lovelland targets. That's what I want the game plan to be. I mean, it's bare weather, right? It's actually not going to be as cold as you might guess for a mid-December game in Chicago.

41:25But still, lean into the bit. The other part just, I'm making this a game of the week by sheer force. The Bears, last time they played this against the Packers, the pressure plan and what they did when blitzing was disgusting. Like, truly disgusting. There is a play on the Christian Watson touchdown where you watch it. It's supposed to be cover zero. They bring seven. Jalen Johnson is in no man's land because the tight end he's supposed to be covering in man coverage blocks. And so he's just kind of standing there. So it's three guys with no safety help on the other side. And the Bears send seven guys.

42:01Montez Sweat trips the nickel. And so two of those guys fall down. And Jordan Love is just standing back there in the pocket against cover zero. And so I think they tried the we're going to throw bodies at the problem version of this the let's just play coverage and kind of hang on to our hats version of this I think is the correct approach this time based on how the last game went is this like a you just want to see what it looks like so that if they run into them in the playoffs they have the right answer going into that I think that them just trying to say like hey like let's just play a bunch of zone and hope that we can he doesn't see an underneath defender and we can get one like that's probably the right way to do this last time like he threw one at them yeah yeah I mean that that I think that is the best path for this team but I know the Packers are banged up it's just a bummer to me I more wanted to see Rome or Luther play in this game to just get a sense of where the Bears offense is against a defense like this I understand that if you line it up and you do the ledger both of these teams are very banged up if in important places if you game this thing out assuming the bears make the playoffs it looks very likely that we'll get an nfc north rematch in the playoffs like that is a pretty high probability so you can get your wish in a few weeks let's get to our next one here bucks panthers yeah lean into the sickness should we put this on sicko street we honestly could have we honestly could have i just looked at the the panthers having a 24 chance of making the playoffs at seven and seven and remembering they lost to the Saints last week and just being like, what is this team?

43:35My God, this is all you though, buddy. Dave, one thing you were looking for in Bucks Panthers this weekend. I mean, this is the most obvious matchup of the week in terms of stakes because it's, I mean, it's between these two for the NFC South. They're going to play twice over the next three weeks. So winning this game is huge. But the thing that interests me the most, and we'll go, let's go back to Thursday night. We remember Kirk Cousins diced the Bucs. They win that game in Tampa. But we do the live reactions in the moment. So we often miss the immediate aftermath. Todd Bowles was furious at his team, particularly his defense coming right out of that game.

44:14And so my one thing for this game is, yeah, the Bucs season feels like it's on the brink just because they might miss the playoffs. But I'm very curious about the locker room dynamics at play here. So after this game, Todd Bowles says, you've got to care enough when this shit hurts. It has to mean something to you. It's more than a job. It's your livelihood. He later goes on to say, the coaches have done all they can do. It's on the players to execute and hold each other accountable. And there's a small select few not doing the little things right and holding themselves accountable. Next day, he kind of walks it back, as you might guess, because he was so mad after that game.

44:50But he talks to the media on Friday. Baker Mayfield, he tried to take accountability. He left a throw out there. He throws an interception in the fourth quarter. He's like, it's on me. Leave it with me. And told about that, Todd Bowles says, Baker can look himself in the mirror and be honest with himself. If everyone did that, we would figure out our problems real quick. Todd Bowles sounds like he hates his defense. Like, that's where I come away from this. Is it wrong or unfair from my response to that to be, we're just trying to find the guy who did this i mean that's a great that's a great chicken or egg question i don't know there is an element or is it personnel hates his defense todd bulls hates the guys who are running his defense apparently i don't know i just i don't know that's a tough one for me to me there's an element of this that like i i think it is a little bit of like a player acquisition thing in the sense of like they just have a lot of players who don't tackle especially in in the secondary and at corner like they just have a lot of guys who don't do it well do you think a lack of tackling is a player acquisition thing i i think i think certain players do not like to tackle yes and i think certain organizations are very good at identifying corners especially who like to tackle interesting i do think like it was always like a give a shit meter thing to me it is it is but i think certain give a shit like yeah like is it like part of organizational DNA, I think is what Derek is saying.

46:21I think it is a little bit, yes. But I also, I think that the give a shit meter is often dependent on the coaching staff filling it up in the correct way. So I agree with that too. It's just that like, I think that's how you piss off a defensive minded coach the quickest is by not tackling. My thing is like, if your team is playing with a lack of effort and you are the head coach, I'm wondering like where you should be looking in that moment. So let's take this another level deeper because I do think it's interesting. Zion McCollum goes out in that game. He's done for the regular season. He's on IR.

46:55So mathematically, he can't come back until the playoffs at the earliest. Kendall Vildor, I mean, it fell apart. Not to say that Zion McCollum is holding up the Bucs defense, but it fell apart without him as that game went along. So you got Kendall Vildor, you got potentially Benjamin Morrison, who's missed the last three weeks due to injury, filling in at cornerback. And I just want to see if the Bucs can duct tape this thing back together. Wherever you want to lay the blame, they have not been playing very well defensively over the last few weeks. And that ties in perfectly with Jalen Coker having a phenomenal two-week stretch here.

47:32He's got 134 yards and two touchdowns over the Panthers' last game, last two games. This is the most diverse array of options Bryce Young has had this season, which is silly to say. but like they built their offense out of Tedaroa McMillan. It's he's got 43 % of their downfield targets and 48 % of their downfield yards this year. Like Tedaroa McMillan has been it for Carolina. So if Jalen Coker can keep this up and Bryce Young has time in the pocket, can he do to the box what Kirk Cousins just did? And having watched that, I'm tempted to say yes. Here's my thing about the Kendall Vildor Zion McCollum thing.

48:12I understand that playing with backups is hard. Kendall Vildor was a backup last year, right? Yeah. Kendall Vildor played a decent amount last year for a Lions team that was decimated by defensive injuries. Know what the EPA per drop back from opponents was with Kendall Vildor on the field for the Lions last year? Negative 0.3 with a 35.5 % success rate. Losing Zion McCollum in favor of Kendall Vildor should not be a load-bearing piece for your defense succeeding or not. And I would argue that it's not. Let's go back to this as well. I've said it before. Levante David has allowed a reception on 18 of 21 targets for 204 yards and four touchdowns over the last month.

48:56Like, there are some issues with this Tampa Bay defense. Levante David, I think it's beyond fair to say father time has caught up. Servasier Dennis is potentially back for this game. That might not be a great thing. Tykee Smith is also probably back for this game, which I think is a big thing. so there's reason for optimism that you can staple this thing back together but I think for a variety of reasons the Bucks defense hasn't played well and and Todd Bowles has a hand in that too I don't mean to absolve him completely but I guess my point is can you get your shit back together after a very public outcry not I mean not just the embarrassing result on the field but clearly some frustration that boiled over can you tighten that back up in time to win a game that you have to win.

49:42I mean, the Bucs can get there if they don't, but it becomes much harder. You've got to win out. You've got to have the Panthers lose out. The winner of this game is in a much more enviable position. Here's my concern with where the Bucs are right now, if that can't happen. Doesn't this feel like the worst possible timeline for the 2025 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, like where we are right now? I know that some of the offensive struggles are based on injury. I don't want to dismiss that, but those guys were back last week. Mike Evans played last week. Jalen McMillan played last week. The offensive line's not 100%, but you got worse back.

50:13You got Kadecki back. Like, you're a normal amount of injured up front. Bucky Irving is back. Right now, the Bucs are 19th in weighted offensive DVOA this year. And that's, I think, even higher than they are in a lot of raw metrics because they've played against a very tough defensive schedule. If you look at where the offense is in year one and plus one from Liam Cohen, it's been disappointing. It's been frightening. This is one of those concerns you have when you lose a really good offensive coordinator two years in a row. So you combine those fears being realized with the defense by the end of the season, yet again, being in a place that you're concerned about.

50:51So truly, like all of the things are falling into place here for this to be the exact place you did not want to end up as the 2025 Buccaneers. Do you think that's like too alarmist? Because that's how I'm feeling right now. I'll take it a step further. Consider how the season started. The Bucs started the season 5-1. They started 2-0 in the division. It looked like they were going to have this thing locked up before we got to Thanksgiving. And now look at where they are. Todd Bowles signed an extension this summer. If they don't get this thing across the finish line, and let's just throw in the wrinkle that the OC that just got away is going to make him.

51:25He's cooking. They're 10-4. They're going to make the playoffs. They might do more than that. I think uncomfortable things are going to be on the table. I mean, people are going to be calling for Todd Bowles' job if this doesn't get across the finish line. And honestly, considering the way it finishes compared to how it started, even if they win the division and lose at home as a wild card, I don't think that's going to make people feel a whole hell of a lot better. So, yes, it is from from from September and October to now, it's one of the most jarring changes. You know, like we talk about a season having multiple parts.

51:57This is one of the most drastic changes in the NFL and for the worst. And yeah, like if you don't manage to win this game, if you can't win the division, I think you could be talking about coaching change, coordinator change. Baker's got a year left on his deal, but all of a sudden that very rosy relationship doesn't quite look as rosy. Yeah, I think none of that is too alarmist to say with how it's gone. Thanksgiving, I can't remember which game it was, Derek. We got a Monday morning call about the Bucs after they had a pretty underwhelming performance. And my response was kind of like, don't worry about it.

52:27Like this team, the organizational health is still good. I wouldn't be worried. Over the past like three weeks and like what has happened since then, I've kind of changed my tune about that. Like I am a little bit more worried than I was at the end of November based on how this late season stretch has looked for this team. I'm probably a little bit more worried, but I'm, I still think with the offense, I can cope myself into it being fine. Once they're a little bit hard to do. Yeah, it's not hard to do. You can talk yourself into it being first year coordinator injuries, all that. Maybe they bounce back next year, but it's not a guarantee.

52:59Like it's not like you got a squint to see it. And that's just not the place you want it to be. Let's talk about the next one here. Steelers lions. Derek, this is all you buddy. One thing you're looking for in Steelers lions on Sunday. I just kind of think this might be like a sneaky, weird game for the lions defense. Like, I think when we think about what this matchup is, every Steelers game feels like a sneaky, weird game. They do that. They do that to you. And usually, usually why that's weird is they will get into 12 and 13 personnel or they'll bring another offensive lineman in. They'll be heavy, all that stuff.

53:31But and for the Lions, that would actually be fine. They're a defense that likes to play in base. They like to have their backers on the field. That's not really that scary to them. But what we saw last week with the Steelers against the Dolphins is that with the Dolphins secondary being the worst part of their defense, they were like, you know what? We're actually going to get into 11 personnel this week. They had I think they played 53 percent of their offense out of 11 personnel that week, which was the highest the Steelers have played all season. And you might think that's a one off game plan against the Dolphins, which maybe it could be.

54:00But the worst part of the Lions team right now is their secondary because they're banged up to hell. They're playing random guys at safety. Avante Maddox, who they brought in to be like a nickel depth, is playing safety again for them again. They're down to some of their other corners that they don't want to be at like this. I would probably run back the same game plan, which, again, gets us back to just a weird spot with like, this is not who we thought the Steelers offense was going to be. And now they've got to go do this against the Lions. And then the one other point that I would want to make about this is that over the last, I think since week 10, the Lions are giving up a first down or a touchdown at the on on completions that they allow on the fourth worst rate in the league granted they've played a lot of really good quarterbacks since then Stafford Dak love but they've looked completely hapless against those guys and even like Jameis Winston and stuff was like putting up some numbers against them and so I'm I'm a little bit worried that a mildly ambitious Aaron Rodgers if we can get it could give them some issues do you attribute that mostly to how banged up the secondary is or do you think that the issues run deeper than that with like the structure and the plan defensively and I think it's just injuries I think when you run the defense that they run I agree I've like I liked what he was doing early in the season when they were even like moderately healthy 100 % like I think he's I think Kelvin Shepard is a good play caller and I like what he's done it's just that when you because with Aaron Glenn last year right when they had some of the the injuries and stuff it was his third fourth year with that defense with a lot of those guys it was a little bit easier to like patch that thing together I think more recently with one how banged up they've been and then specifically over the last three weeks how good the quarterbacks they've played have been that's just a like I don't even know if I would trust the best defensive coordinators in the league to have pulled out a good one there I'm with you on that stakes wise if the Steelers win this game they all lock up the division and we didn't talk about that in the Ravens Pats with the Ravens lost to New England with the Ravens lost to New England and so this is a massive week for the AFC North.

55:54That's some tough whiplash. Not for like the Ravens team or coaches, but like if you're a Ravens fan, I think most people, the Lions are seven point favorites at home. Most people would expect the Lions to win this game. If the Steelers find a way to win, this is a 3-30 game. Ravens are Sunday night football. You go into Sunday night now knowing if we don't win, we're cooked. You did it to yourself. I mean, fair, but that doesn't mean you want to win the division any less, right? But at this point, there's nowhere else you can turn except inward. You lost the Bengals and the Steelers. The only thing more embarrassing than winning this AFC North is not winning this AFC North.

56:32So if that happens, it's not going to be fun for Ravens fans while they wait to see if they can beat the Pats. Speaking of embarrassing, let's talk about the Cowboys defense. One thing from Chargers, Cowboys, this is all me. The Cowboys have been the get-right game for pretty much every offense they've played against recently. They sure have. Can they be the get-right game for the Chargers? That is my question. going back and rewatching the Chargers offense against the Chiefs last week watching the first half of that game Derek I was at a place where I was like this is over like this is truly unwatchable and I do think that the Chiefs specifically are a pretty bad matchup for the Chargers in this specific way when the Eagles were eating up the Chargers on all of those blitzes and making it making life hard on them that's the Eagles playing against type.

57:16That's how the Chiefs want to play. And so if you look at the pressure plan that the Chargers had in the first half of that game, the lack of hots, nobody is open. We've talked about how just lost the offensive line often looks at times when they're sorting out pressure. It was as bad as it can look in the first half of that game against the Chiefs. Really, the only thing that kept the Chargers afloat in that half is that Justin Herbert makes a truly insane, like disgusting throw to Trey Harris down the sideline and then comes back with the touchdown throw to Keandre Lambert Smith, where he looks like a superhero.

57:54Other than that, that offense was so inept in the first half of that game where I'm like, this thing is imploding in real time. In the second half, they actually had some answers for how they wanted to deal with pressure. They're getting need options consistently. I still have a lot of questions about like the overall health of the Chargers offense. There's not a lot of guys open right now. And combining that with how bad the offensive line in the past protection has been, you're in a bad spot. But the way they played in the second half against the Chiefs at least gives me some hope that this can be a potential get right game for them against the Cowboys.

58:31I think my question would be like, get right into like, Like, to what end? Like, how good does get right get them? Can you be as efficient as J.J. McCarthy was last week? Yeah, God, I would hope so. Can you score? I'd like to see the Chargers score 25-plus points in this game. Is that too much to ask? Based on the results, I told you all this earlier, like, a composite of quarterbacks who have played the Cowboys. Like, if we just took every performance against the Cowboys and stretched it into a full season, it would be MVP caliber numbers. So yeah, I mean, I think it would say something about what we can expect from the Chargers.

59:12Like if they can't look better than what we've seen over the last two, three, really most of the season, let's be honest. But the last two weeks have been particularly bad. The Eagles game and the Chiefs game were concerning. If they can't look a little more put together here, then it just doesn't give me a lot of hope for the postseason. That's actually where I'm at. I think them having a really good day is not really going to do anything for me. if they score like 23 points in this game, I won't pick them against anybody in the playoffs for any reason. That's probably what matters here. Let's get an understanding of how bad or how not good, how limited is the ceiling for this offense, even in a good situation as we get toward the postseason.

59:51That's probably the best question to be asking. We're going to take one more quick break and then come back and talk about another offense that maybe we have some questions about heading into the playoffs.

1:00:04It's always fun when we're doing the production meeting on Tuesday to plan this show. and one of us comes up with or suggests something that I had kind of in the back of my mind where I was just like, God, I love that. We're seeing things the same way. And Derek wanted to do an under the hood about the Texans offense this week just for us to kind of get a finger on the pulse of what this Texans offense looks like as we get toward the playoffs because we know what the defense is. So we wanted to just do a little bit of a look at where the Texans are offensively to get a sense of, okay, do you clear the bar where you are actually threatening because of how dangerous the defense is.

1:00:42So when you went back and you watched the Texans over the last few weeks, Derek, with CJ Stroud back in the fold, what was your answer to that question? I kind of think the answer is yes. And they're going to be living a, like they are an offense that I think right now only really operates with like explosives and haymakers. I do kind of think that's enough with how insanely good the defense is. Because like the run game, it's still not good. They're really not helping anybody out. And then even the passing game, I think like they can be kind of efficient every now and then, but they are really hunting for 15 yard chunks, 20 yard chunks, Nico Collins catching runs and stuff like that.

1:01:17But I actually do think that they've gotten to a place where they can do that. I think some of their shot play stuff is nice and Nico Collins can really just make you right in a couple of instances, like the post route they threw to Nico Collins against the Chiefs. That's not even that good of a ball. Nico Collins just goes up and gets it. but in terms of the pure drop back passing game I do think they found something a little bit and I think they've done a better job of getting four and five out in the route concept and having everything flow back into CJ Stroud's vision like pure progression type of stuff where he can start to one side oscillate to the other side of the field and they're getting him some good answers and some of that has been designery third down stuff which I think at times maybe that feels a little bit unsustainable but the fact that they've tapped into that at all where I think for the first seven eight weeks of the season I wasn't sure they had that I I'm kind of into what they have in terms of them having enough firepower the structure of the passing game has gotten to a place that I thought it would be coming into the season like they're condensed formations at one of the highest rates in the league and they're using a lot of like trips and bunches at one of the highest rates in the league and so I thought this is what they would be it's been sort of circuitous and like what we were exploring.

1:02:27And because we talked about this early in the season, the offensive line was so bad early in the year that you're truly just trying to hang on for dear life. Like it's what could possibly work to allow this offense to be functional. And now the offensive line, let's say is good enough, is not so bad that you're in that headspace and you can actually do the stuff you want to do. And so I agree with you in that I do think they found sort of their identity in the passing game. I think some of the quick crossers they're trying to hit, whether that's to Nico, Aiden Hutchinson, not Aiden Hutchinson, Xavier Hutchinson.

1:03:02Xavier Hutchinson. Aiden Hutchinson showed some nice hands against the Lions last week. I'm like, it's amazing how old I'm getting and how fast I'm getting that old. I used to make fun of Nate for not knowing anyone's name, and now I get two names wrong on every single show. I've aged 20 years in the last two years. Here's my thing. I agree with you that they need the haymakers to get there. I still have concerns about the overall foundation of the offense because I think it's important for us to really contextualize what the offensive line is. Just because it's not an atrocity doesn't mean it's good.

1:03:43This team is 31st over the last three weeks in rushing success rate. They are still actively bad at running the ball consistently. They are 31st in quick pressure rate allowed. When you watch their offensive line, there's a lot of big bodies. And so when they're doing some of these duo runs and it's like straight downhill, we got double teams, they can move some people, but they're big and they're stiff. And so in pass protection, they can struggle. And then anytime there's like a slanting front or some sort of run stunt, they usually struggle with it and it leads to negative plays. And so I think the offense is so volatile that while I think if you hit some of those haymakers with the defense, maybe you can get there.

1:04:24But I think I'm less optimistic about it overall than both of you guys are. It's just the greatest bell curve conundrum of all time because so the full disclosure, this is the way I looked at it. Like you see that you see the Texans score 40 points on Arizona. You see Nico's 57 yarder. You're kind of getting excited. You saw Jawar Jordan had a 50-yard cutback in this game. That was really fun. He had a nice day. And you're like, oh, all right, the offensive line's better. The offense is gelling. Like, this is exciting. Then you go watch it back, and you're just like, oh, I don't know. It still looks a lot like what I remember from before CJ got hurt.

1:05:06It's better. The great equalizer. I'll say it's better. The great equalizer, though, the question posed for this thought exercise is like, Can they do enough to give this defense a chance? And I think the answer is yes. That has a lot more to do with the defense than anything else. But like if this group can get you to 20 points, then you've got a shot to beat almost anybody. I do think that's true. And so here, you know what this reminds me of actually, you know how with the early version of the Chiefs, we kind of did this where Patrick Mahomes and the offense were so good that it was like one stop.

1:05:39Yes, it was like if Spags can get us one stop or turnover, we're going to win the game. It's a little bit like this is kind of the inverse of that where it's like, I know you get one touchdown drive. Can you get one touchdown drive, get a couple of field goal drives? Our defense is going to give us one or two short fields. Like it really does feel like the inverse of that. Here's where I'm at with this. I think that the Nico Collins, CJ Stroud, explosive play potential, and they have some other playmakers that can give you that. Right. I actually weirdly think that getting Cade Stover back is helpful.

1:06:09like having one more like capable pass catcher in 12 personnel is actually nice for the closest thing they have to a layup right now is like the boot stuff to Schultz and Cade Stover and actually think usually work layups in that way are good yeah right and so and but there's there's still some structural things about this offense that are so frustrating to me they lead the league in jumbo personnel since CJ Stroud came back it's like 26 percent of plays they're averaging 3.8 yards per play out of those looks per next gen they've they're running the ball 86 percent of the time when they're in jumbo personnel, that chunk you mentioned against the Chiefs, Derek, that's out of jumbo.

1:06:43How about we get two or three of those a game, right? Because that's what you need to do. You need to be like swinging wildly to do it. And I will say the explosive potential has gone up this year because CJ right now is a better creator than he has ever been in his entire career. If you look at some of the things he's doing out of structure, off schedule, that does give them a little bit of juice in ways they haven't in the past. So far this season on extended dropbacks per next gen stats, so four seconds or longer, only Patrick Mahomes averaged a higher EPA per dropback than CJ Stroud. And those guys are in their own like territory.

1:07:18For almost every other quarterback in the league, those plays four seconds or longer are actively negative plays for the offense. For CJ and Patrick this year, they actually have been like neutral plays. And I think that speaks to just how much better he's gotten as a creator. I think the other like minor thing I would I would in terms of how we view C.J. Stroud that I would talk about this year. I think a lot of people remember that Seahawks game and rightfully so. Like it was a big time game. It was the biggest they played all year. And I think people in their memories like that's what the Houston Texans offense looks like.

1:07:48I think for most of the year it has looked better than that. And especially since C.J. Stroud has come back. And to your point, I think a lot of that is his comfort and confidence in playing outside of the pocket, I think, has been really high. And I think even Nico Collins has made some impressive plays like doing his end of the bargain on those, like the 53 yarder they hit against the Chiefs, where CJ Stroud, it's a cover zero look, bails out to his right side and kind of whips it back across the middle to Nico Collins. Collins comes back like five yards towards the line of scrimmage to go get that.

1:08:17And like, I complain about this a lot. There's a lot of receivers who don't do that and they let DBs go and get the ball. And so the fact that they've got that chemistry there and that trust, I think is incredibly important if you're only going to swing for the fences the way that they do. I think the Seahawks game is a great thing to bring up because at that point in the season, when you watch this offensive line and you watch CJ Stroud, it felt like there were two cinder blocks tied around his ankles. Now it's like there's one brick like this thing is weighing him down, but he is no longer drowning.

1:08:46That's how I would frame it. I think he's, and I think he's a good enough player that if the offensive line gives him a chance, he can make them right enough times. And he's doing that. If this defense was run of the mill, I would not really be interested in talking about the Texans. But they are so good that once you get to 20 points, you've got a shot to beat any team you play. Like 20, 21, 23 points. So, yeah. Like, it ain't, it's not as fun as I wanted it to be when we decided to do this. but I think it's good enough given how good they are on defense. All right, let's go spend some time on Sicko Street doing something a little bit different today.

1:09:23I was looking at the schedule for week 16 and the Vikings are playing the Giants this week. And with the game that Tyler Shuck had last week, I wanted to frame like a bigger picture question to you guys rather than digging into these games. If you had to choose, Dave, between Jackson Dart, Tyler Shuck and JJ McCarthy, so all first year starters this year, to be your 2026 starting quarterback, which of those three guys would you choose? So this is coming off of Tyler Shook's best moment to date. He beats J.J. McCarthy's. J.J. McCarthy's as well against Dallas. Should we start with J.J. McCarthy?

1:09:59I'll just start with J.J. McCarthy. Let's do it. Listen, it's nothing personal, but if this is the thought exercise, I can't. J.J. McCarthy can't be the choice. You think he's significantly further down the list than those other two guys for you right now? I absolutely do, and this is the stat that I have to back me up. These three guys have started 24 games. Ironically, the two highest EPA per dropbacks of the three of them this season both belong to J.J. McCarthy in the games against Dallas and Washington. Outside of that, the four... Arguably the two worst defenses in the league. Arguably the two worst defenses in the league.

1:10:33The four worst EPA per dropbacks, the four worst games played by any of these three quarterbacks are all J.J. McCarthy. I don't mean to say this smugly it really is nice to see him have some moments and build that confidence but the bad from J.J. McCarthy has so far so outweighed the good that that couldn't have factored into my choice especially when you consider this is a loaded Vikings team that we considered as a contender heading into the season we don't have to imagine what's J.J. going to look like with better pass catchers that's not a thing you don't think Devon Vele is as good as Justin Jefferson?

1:11:11I don't. I don't. So no, JJ, I couldn't consider JJ as a real choice here. It was really between Tyler Shuck and Jackson Dart for me. And I was really tempted based on, I mean, everything we've seen. I've said it a million times at this point, but even going as far back as his start against the Rams, Tyler Shuck has been really impressive for the situation that he's in, where he was drafted, all that good type of stuff. He is, he's got the best turnover worthy play rate among all rookie quarterbacks. His ADOT is right behind Jackson Dart. Like he's willing to throw the ball downfield. He is eighth in passing success rate in the NFL since getting the job.

1:11:53That's incredible. He's firmly middle of the pack in EPA per drop back. The only thing that scares me with Tyler Shuck is his pressure to sack ratio. He gets sacked a lot. He gets the highest in the league among full-time quarterbacks. It's really tempting to say Tyler Shuck, and I'm really impressed with what he's done. But then I went and watched Jackson Dart's most recent game, and I'm about to talk out of both sides of my mouth here. I know he played the Commanders, just like J.J. McCarthy did. I know the Commanders, they're right there with the Cowboys in terms of get-right opportunity. It's less about who he played, but just go turn on the Giants' Commanders tape, considering that it was a snowy, blustery day at MetLife Stadium, just gross, nasty conditions.

1:12:38And there's Jackson Dart making, he made like six holy shit throws in that game. Like whether it was the deep ball to Theo Johnson or the outbreaker to Wondell Robinson that was all arm, like a 35-yard throw all arm for a touchdown. I was just like, oh yeah, Jackson Dart's just a phenomenal freaking athlete. He's four years younger than Tyler Shuck and I'm comfortable rolling with that. That's how I feel. Derek, where do you land on this? So I thought I was going to land with Tyler Shuck. And I think the more I thought about it, I'm probably not. There's a part of me that Jackson Dart gives me pause.

1:13:17We swayed him just since the production meeting. No, no, no. Oh, I thought you said you were going to roll with Shuck. No, no, no, no. I kind of was I kind of think I was and I think if you framed it just as like oh interesting 2026 we need to just like keep getting by I might take Tyler Shuck I think he feels a little bit more like a pro adult quarterback right now and there's a part of me that with Jackson Dart I get a little bit freaked out with how he consistently says that he's going to keep playing the way that he's playing and I think with some of the health stuff that is genuinely concerning however of the three, I think Jackson Dart is the best athlete and I think he's the most accurate.

1:13:53And on top of that, I do think there is a part of Jackson Dart's game that I like the most compared to Tyler Shuck. I think Tyler Shuck is very good at can we keep the offense rolling? Can we stay on pace? Can we take our checkdowns, all that stuff? Jackson Dart to me is a more ambitious passer. And while that needs to be honed a little bit, I do think there is at least something there for him to work on. And so I'm a little bit scared of all three of these quarterbacks for different reasons. But there's at least part of me that if Dart stays healthy, it's like I can see more of the world where maybe he becomes like a top half of the league guy.

1:14:25Is it Lord of the Rings? Is it Aragorn that says if you're not scared, you haven't been paying attention? I would hope you're a little bit scared of all of these guys. But I think Jackson Dart is the best blend of like, I mean, we've seen some legitimately good stuff from him. And then the talent is is undeniable. I just think the upside is highest with him. I don't disagree with that. I think this is also, it speaks to how I'm wired and like my personal preference. I'm happy to cape for Tyler Shuck here. And I just think that right now, and this is, again, this is sometimes a fault of mine when I'm looking at players and I think, all right, I can see what this guy is.

1:15:02And I actually like the fact that it's more of certainty is hard to say about a first year quarterback who started like a handful of games. but I think I have a better understanding of like what Tyler Shuck is from the pocket right now. Like he is a more polished player from the pocket right now. I think considerably than Jackson Dart is. When I watched our shock, you go back and watch that Panthers game. I love the rhythm that he plays with. Like you'll watch him read stuff out and it's just like first hitch, first hitch front side, second hitch backside. And I love that. Like, that's what I want to see out of my quarterbacks fighting from the pocket.

1:15:35He's 26, right? And so he should hopefully see things a little bit better than Jackson Dart does. And, but he does right now. And so I am willing to attach myself to that. And it's not like he doesn't have any athleticism. He's not nearly as twitchy as Jackson Dart is, but as a straight line mover, we've seen what Tyler Shuck can do. Like he can do stuff as a runner. He can do stuff as a scrambler. I think he's just a little less twitchy in the pocket. And that leads to some of the sack stuff. When I watch Tyler Shuck right now, what he reminds me of is some of these like big arm pocket guys like Ryan Tannehill, like that, that to me feels like the path forward for a guy like Tyler Shuck.

1:16:14And I like me that kind of quarterback. Like I actually like stylistically, I believe in those sorts of guys. And so I do think you guys are right. And that dart is more talented. He's a better creator, like all of that stuff. I just kind of like the way that Tyler Shuck is seeing stuff from the pocket I think I would bet on Tyler Shuck I do think this is like if you're uh if you're trying to do the the GM like the best thing that you can do for your job is to like hold the job I do think Tyler Shuck actually makes more sense because I do think he's he's more put together right now I'm less worried that he's gonna you know run himself into concussions potentially the way that Jackson Dart is and he is a really good athlete he ran a four six three at the combine and he actually jumped out of the gym too like he's a really good athlete once he gets going in the same way that Ryan Tannehill was you had to get him outside of the pocket you had to help him a little bit but once he got there he could take off for like 20 yards and so I do think there's some of that there but again it just feels like if you want to swing for the upside a little bit I do think Jackson Dart has a little bit more of that and to Dart's credit his floor is not as bad as I thought it was like I thought he was going to be like unplayable coming into the season potentially I agree he helps himself with the scrambling though the scrambling has been a huge part of a floor raiser but that's true for a lot of young quarterbacks Like we see guys rely on their athleticism as a problem solver when they don't see it very clearly.

1:17:32I think with Dart, it's been pretty pronounced, like pronounced in almost as much as any young quarterback recently. Like Jaden Daniels saw it much better from the pocket last year than Jackson Dart does. But even Jaden Daniels, I don't think relied on the scrambling to this extent the way that Dart has. When you remove scrambles, I know that's a huge thing that you're removing. But when you take that away and you look at what Dart has done, He has a 40 % success rate this year, solely in structure from the pocket. That's ahead of only J.J. McCarthy, Russell Wilson, Cam Ward, and the Browns rookies.

1:18:02So he really has needed the scrambling to raise that floor, but that's part of his game. And for young quarterbacks, you shouldn't just dismiss that. And I also think it's worth pointing out, rightfully so, he's got this very gutsy, borderline reckless play style. And the narrative with, you know, the concussion that he had against the Bears and how many times he's been checked. I mean, that's going to follow him until he gets better at protecting himself, whether it's fair or not. But his turnover worthy play rate is right in line with guys who have played a hell of a lot more football than he has.

1:18:34Like, it's not like he's overly reckless with the football, which is impressive because if you watch one game of him, you're just like, this guy's a madman. But I don't think it's as pronounced as you might guess. The last point I want to make about this, I'll take it to Mia Coppola about my previous statements about how the Saints have handled their quarterback situation. Like giving Shuck the shot when they did to at least get an idea by the end of the season about what you have with him. And even the idea of like kind of rolling the dice on a guy in the second round, like it's often worth it to make those picks.

1:19:04It's often worth it when you don't have a quarterback to take a shot to find a quarterback. And so I feel like right now the Tyler Shuck thing has worked out about as well as the Saints could have by that time when they decided that he was going to be the starter, not Spencer Rauer. I said this on the recap show and I'll absolutely own it because before the season, I said, you're going to spend a top 40 pick on a quarterback. He's not going to win the starting job, which means he's not going to be in place for at least a chunk of the season. Then he's going to get the job and prove to you that he's worth an extended look in that amount of time.

1:19:37Yeah, that's what he did. That's what happened. That's what he did. And I, you know, I don't I'm not ready to say Tyler Shuck is going to be the Saints franchise quarterback for the foreseeable future. but their best path forward right now is probably to take a shot with him as their starter for 2026, not draft a quarterback, at least not one with like a premium pick and see what this guy's got. And I will readily admit, I didn't think he'd be able to pull that off and he has made me eat my words for sure. Sticking on Sicko Street here, we don't spend a ton of time on this. Falcons Cardinals is like the saddest pointing Spider-Man meme game of the season.

1:20:13Like both of these teams, like, I mean, obviously the coaching staff is only in year two in Atlanta, but the front office is not. And so this was supposed to be the season in both of these places where the birds were supposed to put it together. And neither of them have. Like, we're in a spot right now where both Raheem Morris and Jonathan Gannon are sitting up there answering questions about their job security. I mean, these are teams that were supposed to be fighting to be playoff teams this year. They're both slated to pick. Well, excuse me. They both would pick in the top 10 if that was their house.

1:20:45That's mean. And so that's just, for neither of these teams, was this the place you wanted to be as we crept toward Christmas? But that's where they both are right now, and it's a pretty sad state of affairs in both of those places. This is fresh on my mind because we just watched their game for the Texans breakdown, but I just want to say, if you're looking for a bright spot, if you're a Cardinals fan, Walter Nolan kicks ass Walter Nolan whoa that dude's cool and I know the Texans offensive line is is not great as we already established but he was throwing those guys around the other day man he's fun Derek and I have talked about this like I do think this is a team specifically that if they found like the right coach and the right quarterback quickly and I know that's not easy to do, but the Cardinals have like a top six pick as it currently stands.

1:21:38Like if somehow things fall into place where they stumble into I know he was picked way later in the first round but, and I don't, not totally in tune with the quarterbacks in this class. If we think that like Fernando Mendoza is going to go number one, do you think there's a quarterback we're taking at six in this class? If I would say like the one, maybe two you'd be talking about are Dante Moore at Oregon and Ty Simpson at Alabama. I think, yeah, like Dante Moore would be worth taking at six if he comes out. We don't know the answer to that yet. Let's go past that. Let's just say that the new front office, if it is a new front office in Arizona, they pull a Jackson Dart with Ty Simpson at the end of the first round.

1:22:18And that Ty Simpson can be as good as Jackson Dart is right now for the Giants. I do feel that there's enough talent elsewhere on this roster where I actually kind of am interested in like a quick turn around for the Cardinals. You're talking to the wrong guy because I'm a Ty Simpson believer. He hasn't played well over the last month of the season, but I'm a fan of what he's done for most of this year. We're getting away from the topic here, but I'm hoping he can put on a show in the playoffs and make me feel right. This is also getting away from the topic, but don't you think Cardinals fans would lose their mind if they took another short quarterback?

1:22:51How short is Ty Simpson? Ty Simpson, he's not Kyler short. Yeah, but he's shorter than Baker probably. I love the fact that Derek is like, at least Nate's 6 '5 to be a sizist. Derek is my height and he's just like, these 6 '4 quarterbacks f*** them. Because I'm like, if I'm thinking about like, man, you're built like me and you're going to try to play quarterback in the NFL, what are we doing? Ty Simpson's listed at 6 '2", which yeah, means he's probably Baker-sized, but yeah, like he's it's not the same thing as like Kyler Murray. That's all I'm saying. Derek is like, if he's not 6 '2", he deserves to die.

1:23:26You better be The 6 '5", 230 guys go in the top 10, Derek. There's nothing we can do about it. If me and a starting quarterback walk off the plane together, it better be very clear which one of us is playing in the NFL. All right, let's talk about what we want to know at the end of week 16. Dave, kick us off here, buddy. What do you want to know heading out of week 16? I didn't mean to make this my personality. I really didn't. But just wait till mine. Just wait till mine, so don't worry about it. I'm fat. I love records. I love NFL history. And Miles Garrett is, I think, going to set NFL history at some point in the final three weeks of the season.

1:24:07He's sitting on 21 and a half sacks. He needs one to tie the NFL record and one and a half to just own it. And, like, what would be more metal than doing it this weekend when the Browns play the Bills? Like, sure, he could do it the way that Michael Strahan did it. And like maybe Aaron Rodgers would would fall down for him or maybe like maybe Joe Burrow sits in week 18 and he gets it against like Jake Browning or whatever. He's so sad. Exactly. That would be so sad. And so what better way to make NFL history than sacking the reigning MVP, the transformer of a quarterback that is Josh Allen? That is the way that NFL history should be set.

1:24:49And it's doable. Josh Allen, he's been sacked 33 times this year, which is sixth highest in the league. He's been sacked in 12 of his 14 games, and he's been sacked multiple times in nine of his 14 games. So it's doable, Miles. Just go do it. Just go sack Josh Allen twice and get this record in the most metal way imaginable. That's what I want to know if we're going to have a new sack record holder by Monday. It would be fun if, like, two of the aliens that have ever played in the NFL at their respective positions were to have that moment for all of his. I don't want to see Aaron Rodgers' first read be, like, not there.

1:25:23And so he just sort of hesitates and falls down and Miles Garrett taps him for the record-setting sack. I want Josh Allen straining with all of his might and he's like doubling back and looking downfield and patting the ball and Garrett's closing in. Like, that's what I want. I want it to happen in a cool way, not like a, oh, okay, way. Mine for week 16, can Phillip Rivers do this again? Oh my God. Do what again? You're right. That is your personality. We here's what I'll say about this. We talked about the Colts Seahawks game in the back half of the show during a what the segment that was more tilted toward the Seahawks struggling to beat that Colts team.

1:26:02I've been kind of sitting with this over the last week. We have not properly acknowledged how insane it is that a 44 year old man who did not play football in five years walked off his couch into an NFL game against the best defense in the NFL and actually could play the position. not only could play the position, he's at the line of scrimmage checking protections. Like just the ability, how crazy it is that this man did not play football for five years and then at full speed could have enough of an understanding and control and authority within the offense to be doing all of that and going to the right place with the ball almost every single time he was dropping back to pass is insane.

1:26:50Like, it is truly crazy that that just happened. And I know that we talked about it a lot leading up to the game. I don't think I have talked about it or thought about it in the proper tone since we actually watched it happen. I think it's kind of amazing he didn't turn the ball over until obviously the last play of the game where he just has to chuck up an interception. But like, you just think about like, he can't throw it very far. He can't throw it very hard. He can't move. The fact that he didn't turn the ball over against like arguably the best defenses in the league is crazy. And so we're going to get another week where his deepest pass is like 14 yards.

1:27:24But against the Niners, I don't know if Tyler Warren makes two plays like that might do something. I just I don't know, man, if that's what he looked like against Seattle. I mean, like this Niners defense just isn't very equipped. I'm not saying he's going to light them up. I don't think he has the physical capacity to light anybody up. But the idea that he's just like, he had like four days and he's checking like the plays and the protections like he was playing the league last week. You know damn good and well that he's been doing that shit in his office at his high school for the last four years.

1:27:55I guess. He does that for fun. I guess. It's a little bit different when you're at Lumen Field with Leo Williams, like Leonard Williams on the other side of the ball. It is crazy that that just happened. And so the idea that maybe we just get to watch him do this for like three more weeks. Again, there's a joke in Oh Hello, the John Mulaney, Nick Kroll thing that I won't repeat. But the punchline is we at Oh Hello do not think this has been talked about enough. And that is how I feel about the Philip Rivers thing. Like we at the athletic football show do not think we have approached this with the correct tone and how insane it is.

1:28:27Derek, what do you want to know coming out of week 16? Mine is like on the opposite end. It's a little bit sadder. Obviously, the Chiefs season is over. they've got to go play the Tennessee Titans which like I almost think there is something about like if your season just ended you lose Patrick Mahomes I would almost want to play more of like a mediocre team like I would kind of want to play the Panthers because you at least kind of have to get up for that game how easy would it be to look at the Titans after your season just ended and be like I don't know if I even care to do this and so I'm curious like can the Titans actually kind of pull off a decent game here and there's obviously there's more to it than just that I think like We've seen Cam Ward have cool moments.

1:29:05I actually think that Tennessee's front with where Kansas City's offensive line is banged up a little bit. It could cause Gardner-Mitche some issues. So I'm morbidly curious about this game is all. If that's not the greatest encapsulation of the NFL, and the NFL does not give a shit about you, this incredibly historic Chiefs run, at least mathematically, comes to an end, and you don't have your leader and your best player. and I'm sure everybody on the Chiefs needs a moment to lick their wounds. And then there are the Titans like, we don't give a shit. We're trying to win a game. We got a young quarterback who needs the experience.

1:29:43Lace him up. Let's go. I just imagine Travis Kelsey like, come on, guys. Are we doing this today? And the Titans are like, hell yeah, we are. Let's go. All right. That is all we've got for week 16. Obviously, you guys are listening to this on Friday, but a massive Thursday night football game is happening. About three hours from now after we're done recording this, encourage you guys to go check out the Thursday night football recap that is sitting in the athletic football show YouTube channel. Really excited about that one. Hopefully it lives up to the hype. We will be back here on Sunday. We're not going to be recapping the Saturday games live.

1:30:20We'll be doing plenty of that in the playoffs, but I'm sure we will hit Bears Packers on the Sunday recap. So please be on the lookout for that. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.

1:30:39We'll see you next time.