Week 17 Preview: Massive division title and playoff seeding stakes on the line

0:03Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays week 17 is here had a few Christmas games yesterday that we are going to dig into with me, Dave and Derek. And then we picked seven other matchups from the week 17 slate did one thing from those seven games before spending a little time on sicko street, uh, including a game that very likely will determine the number one pick in the NFL excited to dig into it. Let's get to it with me, Derek and Dave right now.

0:37it's the week 17 preview here on the athletic football show we got about seven games that we're gonna hit one thing from just kind of doing it's like our holiday version of the preview shows where we don't have games of the week we're just gonna hit one thing from a bunch of different games from the slate got a couple things we wanted to hit on sicko street just because they can't be ignored like they're the sickest of streets we have to hit them on today's show So we're going to dig into a lot of games yet to happen on the week 17 slate. But let's start with just a quick recap of what happened during the Christmas Day games.

1:10I had my thoughts about the Christmas Day slate and kind of how things unfolded yesterday. Dave, just walk me through like your experience taking in those three games yesterday. Oh, man, do you really want my experience? I'm just curious. I'm just curious about it. Well, so I was at Christmas with my with my family, my fiance's family to be to be specific. And it's such a weird feeling trying to prioritize like there's football on. It's my job to watch football. This is bad football. There's a lot of third string quarterbacks playing. And like I had to continually remind myself, like be present in the moment with your family.

1:55It does not matter what Josh Johnson is doing right now. It does not. It does not matter that Max Brosmer is going to win this game with 50 passing yards. I had to keep reminding myself of that, but I still managed to have eyes on all three games for the most part. And then at the very end of the day, congratulations to them. My future brother-in-law got engaged. Oh, wow. And that happened while Bo Nix was like driving to put the game away. And so that was very surreal where I like kind of had an eye on Bo Nix doing Bo Nix things while this very fun, meaningful thing was going on. So, yeah, it was it was a fun day.

2:32I want to be clear before we get into this that I'm not complaining about there being games on Christmas. It doesn't really matter to me. I'd be watching them anyway. Like the way that my family Christmas goes, we're all gathered in the living room of my brother's house with my nieces and the TV's on anyway. And my brother's got 10 million fantasy things to worry about. And the screen is huge. And so it's not it doesn't infringe on our day whatsoever. But I was sitting there yesterday after my wife and I had gotten home and we were I was watching the halftime show for Lions Vikings. And I see I didn't know exactly what was happening.

3:04There were like 20 different musical variety things happening at the same time. But as soon as they like trotted out Andrea Bocelli at the end of that halftime show, my prevailing thought is like, you can't try to make me believe this is an event. Like I know what sort of football games are happening right now. And so when I watched all of these games happen yesterday, it's not that I feel inconvenienced by them being on. I just landed in a place where I was like, why do we need this? Like, why is this necessary? Like the way that yesterday unfolded to me is such a perfect representation of the downside of the insatiable greed that the NFL has.

3:39And I think a lot of people, they're refrained about why the games, all the games are inconsequential, right? Like none of them actually mattered. And we had three third string quarterbacks playing in these games. and I can understand the argument that, well, you know, how could you have known? Like, how could you have known before the season that this would happen? Well, you couldn't. Like, in a lot of ways, this is the worst case scenario. But at the same time, if you're going to have island games in week 17 that you can't flex, this is always a possibility. Like, this is very much a flying too close to the sun situation for the NFL.

4:14And ultimately, it doesn't matter. But I think that's my point. Why is this necessary? Why do we need this? And to me yesterday, Derek, that was a perfect example of how this can go wrong when the NFL thinks it needs to eat everything. Yeah, because two of these teams played each other on Thanksgiving and they were both still in it. The Chiefs and the Cowboys played each other and it was like a huge swing game for both of their seasons. It was like, oh, my God, the Cowboys are alive now. And then, oh, my God, if the if the Chiefs don't went out from here, they're kind of screwed. And by the time you get here a month later, it's like neither of these games mattered.

4:45The Chiefs season is completely over. The Cowboys season is completely over. And all you get is a couple of fun plays from like Kavante Turpin, which I get. Like if we're going to have a stupid game on Christmas, at least give us like a couple of fun Kavante Turpin plays. And we got him, but completely inconsequential. I was was the Lions Vikings halftime. The Snoop Dogg, this one that started with Snoop Dogg. Yeah, buddy. Snoop Dogg, K-pop. There was a country singer. My wife was trying to identify. And then we got Andrea Bocelli at the end. I didn't realize that was Super Bowl to shame in terms of just shoehorning people into halftime shows, just stringing everybody together.

5:19They had somebody to make everybody happy, which I did appreciate and that was funny. But I didn't realize it was supposed to be Snoop Dogg. And then I saw the like at the two minute warning. They did like the little flash like commercial for it with the little animations. And I was like, I don't think I need to be too did for halftime. Really, I'm good on that. it's been a, it's been a steady theme for our show this year where, I mean, it's just a series of, of one month seasons and so much can change over the course of a month. And this is, this is an illustration of that because in week 13, week 12, 13, whatever it is where we play Thanksgiving, I mean, you would have to be beyond awful to be mathematically out of the picture on Thanksgiving.

6:00Even a bad team can find a reason to get up on Thanksgiving. And that's just not the case by the time you get here. And if you, if you lock this in where it's hard to flex out of it, it's, you can wind up in this situation really easily. It is very normal for teams to a B beat to hell and B just not have all that much left to play for by this point in the season and three games, six teams. You're just, obviously you're, you're just multiplying those factors. It, yeah, it felt really gross. It feels very unnecessary. And honestly, the funny thing for me is like, it's, it's Thursday this year. So it was a little more palatable to me.

6:38Cause that's an NFL game. Fine. Yeah. Yeah. But well, but what I was going to say is like, we have precedent that the NFL is going to try this anyway. We did this on Wednesday last year. And the idea that we're going to get this every year going forward, no matter how bad of an idea it is, is it's a little bleak to me. I mean, yeah, maybe we scale it back to one game. That seems like a compromise. And I just think that, again, some of the thought yesterday was, well, you can't flex the games. Like, how would you do that? And I was like, well, that the option isn't have the games that can't be flexed or be able to flex the games.

7:11There's a third option. It's called not have the games on Christmas this late into the season. But whatever. Two of the games were close. I'm willing to admit that two of the games were close because in those two games combined, teams had 60 net passing yards, six zero by the chiefs and the Vikings combined in those two games. So we got some ugly football. Let's talk about the three games individually. Cowboys commanders. I have the least to say about this is a game between two bad defenses, the team with the better offense in the first string quarterback one. Like I did that game was, it was fun.

7:42There were some cool moments. The Kavante Terba touchdown was fun. Johnny Newton had the game of his career. You know, he had three sacks in that game. Like there, There was some fun stuff in that game, but I think the least consequential of the games overall. Lions-Vikings, that's a seriously impressive performance from the Vikings defense in that game. And I know the Lions offensive line is down two starters, and Penesua got banged up for a little bit. The offense for the Lions is down five starters overall. But the Vikings really picked them apart in that game. They have not allowed the Vikings defense a passing success rate above 40 % since week 12.

8:17Wow. And usually that's like, oh, they're playing certain quarterbacks thing. But I mean, this past week you played the Vikings. And they did it to the Cowboys. Yeah, they did it to the Cowboys two weeks ago. They did it to the Cowboys two weeks ago. Right now, the Vikings are fifth in weighted defensive DVOA. Fifth. And it's just it's one of those things where it's almost kind of disappointing because you get to this stretch of the season and you watch what they're capable of. And I think there's kind of an inclination to say, well, this kind of feels like a signal that the Vikings could be back to relevance pretty quickly.

8:49Like we're reminded about what this defense can be. But then with even a normal, sort of normal season at quarterback, like what could the 2026 Vikings be? But then you look at it and they're like$30 million over the cap. You know, Harrison Smith's future is uncertain. Eric Wilson, who was really good for them as a free agent. They've got some aging pieces. I just think there's such a weird team to figure out like what the one year outlook for the Vikings looks like. But to me, Derek, a game like this and the way the defense has played over the last month, again, it's almost like disappointing because you just are reminded of what they're capable of.

9:24And the fact that this season didn't really matter, it ends as kind of a bummer more than anything else. It really does, because like we all knew that the Vikings had this gear to them somewhere. It just took longer than I think we would have wanted. And even if they had done it earlier in the season, I think with all the quarterback stuff, none of this really would have mattered. this was another like it's the Flores stuff is funny because he's obviously in one of the best defensive minds in football but when he has his best games it's clearly like when he's throwing a lot of heat and I'm sometimes surprised that teams don't have a better answer knowing that like that's what he's going to do um but I thought they played a really impressive game here a lot of what they were doing too was like knowing that and maybe this is Flores just being really good about being specific to the quarterback.

10:09He knows that Goff's only answer to the blitz is like, ball's going to be out immediately. I'm going to throw a quick out. I'm going to throw a sticker out. I'm going to throw all this stuff. So they were like showing and bringing six or seven and then they would pop a guy off, not really into coverage, but to just stand in the throwing window and throw his hands up. Like Van Ginkle did it a bunch of times. All the D linemen were doing it. Jalen Redman did it a couple of times. Eric Wilson, like they were literally waiting for Goff to throw the hot and just put hands up. And I was like, that's clearly good coaching and game planning.

10:34I thought that part was pretty impressive. They did a fantastic job against them in the first game. And just this Vikings defense and just this Vikings team overall, when you see them at their best, you're reminded of what it can be. And it's going to be a really interesting offseason. We're going to spend some time on Monday, me and you, Derek, talking about the Vikings and the Lions, just the teams that had playoff aspirations coming into the year that fell a little bit short, that aren't going to be in the postseason, and kind of what that means. Because to me, this game from the Lions is more of the same in what the season has felt like, where, you know, you understand what they're capable of, especially on offense.

11:07But the dips have just been a little bit lower on offense and the defense is banged up and kind of fell off a cliff at the end of the year, the same way happened last year. So that'll be a good conversation because I do want to dig into those that tier of teams specifically and what this kind of means moving forward. The last thing I want to say really quickly about this game to like capture how weird this game was for the Lions offense. The only other game this entire season where a team has turned the ball over six times the the way the Lions did was when the Colts played the Steelers that like that's the only other time it's happened this year and it only happened twice last year like six is uncharted territory like when you hear six you're just like whoa hey yeah you start you pull up true media like all right is this unique like when was the last time this happened and then the last game of the day this Broncos game and that Broncos performance specifically it's whatever you want it to be I was mostly angry it was close at halftime and I had to like re-watch it in the evening I was angry.

12:04It's whatever you want it to be, because it would be very easy to look at the course of that game. The fact that it's tied in the fourth quarter and say, man, you were tied with Chris Olodekun late in the fourth quarter. Like that, that's, that's what's going to happen for a team fighting for the number one seed. But at the same time, the Broncos had a 55 % offensive success rate. They had four different drives of at least 14 plays. Bo Nix made some nails throws on third down throughout that game and made some really impressive plays from the pocket, including a couple that ultimately weren't caught like that throw in the end zone to Corwin Sutton might've been one of his best throws of the game.

12:43And that does not get caught. You go, but at the same time, it's like, okay, you did all that, but you had to go 11 of 18 on third down to squeak by a team that had 66 passing yards. You had one play of 20 plus yards the entire game. you were three of 10 on passes beyond 10 yards. The chiefs had 11 dropbacks. Oh, excuse me. You were three of 10 on passes of beyond 10 yards. So it's like, this could easily be bucketed as they controlled the game. They understood what they needed to do to win. It's another version of that Broncos game. But at the same time, it was tied in the fourth quarter against a third string quarterback that had 66 passing yards.

13:21I felt like the, I really felt like the Broncos dusted off the same game plan from that second Raiders game. where you win that game by seven points and it looks dicier than it needs to be. But at no point, at no point was I like genuinely worried about the Broncos. It's worth, it's worth reminding myself that I, there, there was an engagement going on in my house. So maybe I missed a couple of moments, but I never felt like the Broncos were in deep trouble. The chief's only touchdown drive of the day comes after that awesome Nick Bolton interception where they get the short field. That's a wonky play.

14:00You mentioned it already, Robert, but the Broncos receivers did not help Bo Nix in this, in this situation, Courtland Sutton, who his whole thing is making the quarterback, right? He had the touchdown drop. He had another drop on an explosive other than that. And so, I mean, Denver could have gone 13 of 18 on third down in this, in this game pretty easily. uh what all of their scoring drives were 14 plus plays i think they had seven possessions i think they had seven possessions in the whole game they did the same thing they did against the raiders like it's a lot of getting into third and three and converting with with easy throws or runs all of their scoring drives were 14 plus plays and and took at least six minutes off the clock they had a couple like eight nine minutes scoring drives and i'm not telling you you have to be impressed by this, but I very much felt like the Broncos were like, all right, let's just drive through this school zone and not get a ticket and get the hell out of here.

14:56That was my impression. It weirdly felt like a chief's game from last year where they kind of just like survive and like get to the end. They make like a three plays. They sit on the ball and like, eventually, you know that they're going to make the play at the end to win it. I think that's a lot of how the Broncos games have felt this year. And it's funny. Y 'all say that because did you see this team just tied the chiefs for most one possession wins in a season. And even, even beyond one possession, if you look at their record in games, decided by like three points or less. And the only reason this wasn't a three point or less win is because the chiefs jumped on fourth down.

15:30Like that's the only reason it would have been a 1613 final. And again, it's whatever you want it to be. It's just such a strange game. I think when you have to go 11 of 18 on third down, even if they're manageable third downs. That's still, there's a, there's more variance involved in that than I think you want there to be against the team playing a third string quarterback. That's, I think that's kind of where I land. I do agree with that. And like I said, I don't, I don't want to give the impression that I thought this was some impressive win, but I'm just kind of like, all right, we, we punt to week 18 and I guess we'll, we'll get into this as we preview the coming week, but there's a chance you're playing a division title game in week 18 and that is a a more fun way to evaluate this Broncos team I just kind of I was like all right ugly night at the office where I was never that worried about you losing we'll we'll move on to the next week Chiefs had 11 dropbacks all game where they played single high and so I think that plays into the game plan from the Broncos overall and again you look at it it's at a 55 offensive success rate where they averaged four and a half yards per play it's insane it's like it's hard to do in an nfl game but that's exactly how yesterday felt all right let's get to the rest of the week 17 slate we're hitting seven games with one thing from those seven games let's start with the texans and the chargers texans currently the seventh seed in the afc they have a 20 chance to win the afc south they clinch a clinch a playoff berth with a win or a colts loss the chargers at 11 and 4 they're the five seed in the afc they They currently have a 22 % chance to win the AFC West still.

17:09Derek, this is all you. One thing you are watching in Texans Chargers this weekend. I think there are some games where I like try to steer away from what the Texans like. Oh, just watch the pass rush. But against where we're at with this Chargers offensive line and what we've seen from them in the playoffs last year when the Chargers had their tackles, they had Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt and they got blasted in that playoff game. Obviously, the interior was a little bit different. And so maybe that's a consideration here. But I think getting this pass rush against what the Chargers offensive line looks like with.

17:43I know Justin Herbert is still playing great, but he basically has one hand at this point. Like this is going to very much be like, I'm just worried the Chargers offense is ever going to get off the ground. The one saving grace for them, I think, compared to most of this year is O'Marrion Hampton is back. And the run game still sucks down to down. But Hampton does give them explosives. And every now and then you can maybe some of those guys in the Texans back or in the Texans secondary are like looking at the wrong place in the backfield and you can get, you know, get to the alley and maybe you can pop a run.

18:11But otherwise, I think this is going to be a game where the Chargers offense struggles to get off the ground. Pass rush gets to Herbert way too many times. This to me, I would not be surprised if it feels and plays out very similarly to like the Chiefs Texans game where it's like a 10 to 20. The Texans hit like four explosive plays on offense and that's really all they need to go and win the game. also even the the Chargers offensive line in its current state it felt like they wanted to play Jamari Sawyer at left tackle in favor of Austin Dekulis and now he's out so it's just the the sheer number of different offensive line combinations and different considerations we've had to take into account with this Chargers offensive line throughout the season it's mind-boggling like it's absolutely insane what they've had to endure and they look fine against the Cowboys Dave but playing against this Texans defensive line is a very very different situation.

19:00I'm just imagining Justin Herbert, like play, playing his ass off to have a stat line of like, you know, 16 of, of 29 with like 180 yards and a touchdown and a pick. And people are going to like criticize him for it. And I'm going to turn into the Joker. I'm going to be like, no, that's, that's like top notch ball getting to that stat line with what Justin Herbert's got going on against the Texans. It should be a fun chess match. I was curious about the point total in this game. The bed MGM point total is 39 and a half. That's actually higher than I thought it was going to be. We got some doozies this week.

19:41Broncos chiefs was 36 and a half, which I remember seeing that. I was like, Oh my God. I mean, they were right. 33 Steelers Browns is sitting there to cool 34, which we will talk about in a little bit. But 39 and a half for Texas Chargers is honestly higher than I thought it was going to be. 34 has to be like the lowest on the year. 34 is crazy. 34 is pretty bonkers. Let's get to a game where there's a lot more points expected. Bears at Niners. This is all me. Bears currently the two seed in the NFC. They will clinch the NFC North with a win. With a win, their chance for the number one seed per Austin Mox numbers here at the Athletic go to 35%.

20:19The Niners are still alive in the NFC West. With a win, the Niners' chances for the number one seed would go to about 46%. So we're sitting there at about 50-50. My one thing from this game is which of these defenses can get a stop when they need it? Because the over-under in this game is 52.5. And you've got two defenses that they've had their issues over the course of the year. Like, there's no denying that. The Bears right now are number one in the NFL per next-gen stats in rushing success rate. The Niners are dead last in defensive rushing success rate. And so we've got a game where the Bears need to control the ball on the ground.

20:56Even with no Dunze, I still think this can be a game where the Bears running game really gets after the Niners and they do a really good job of controlling the ball. And why I think that's important is the Niners offense looks like a wagon right now. I mean, Derek, we had that game a couple of weeks ago where we watched them play against the Titans and their run game has been inconsistent this year. Like they just have not been able to run the ball consistently on their terms. And so I'm watching that game and I'm watching the Titans front push them around. And I'm like, all right, what is the ceiling of this team really if they can't run the ball?

21:29And then you watch that game against the Colts and it's like, it doesn't matter. Like it just the way that the passing game is right now, it doesn't matter that they can't run the ball efficiently. Purdy right now per next gen is number one in the league and drop back success rate number one. and you watch what they are with that. When they have Kittle, and I know Kittle might not play in this game, but when they have Kittle and McCaffrey and Purdy playing and you watch what they do when they get five guys out in the route, it's beautiful. Like it's one of my favorite versions of offensive football in the NFL right now.

22:01There's no offense in the league like it when all of those guys are playing together. With CMC and Purdy on the field, when the Niners get five guys out into the route per true media, 0.26 EPA per drop back, 7.4 yards per play, 55 % offensive success rate. And you watch that game against the Colts and none of that is surprising. And so I think we have two defenses in this game that are at a severe disadvantage for multiple reasons against the offenses they're going to play. You know what that makes me think of though, is it could be, I don't want to, I don't want to hype them up too much because I think this is going to be a very offense heavy game, but that could, this could work to the bears strength and their strength is opportunism in my opinion.

22:46And one thing about Brock Purdy, he's fearless. He's going to rip it. Yeah. I don't even, I don't even know if it's fair to say he'll give you some like, like that's, you know, like that implies that he's just, I don't think he's careless. I just think he's aggressive to the point where like, you've got like, shit's going to go wrong. I mean, it happened against the Colts where he leaves a ball over the middle, a little too high. It gets tipped and it's picked off by the safety behind the play. And I think that is something the bears are really good at. And if Brock Purdy is not a thousand percent on the screws, a team that is good at getting takeaways should have at least a couple opportunities at it.

23:23That's a good way to put it. I don't think he's reckless necessarily. I just think like kind of to your point, like the function of the offense has to be like, Hey, you've got to layer some of these balls over the linebacker and he's going to throw it anyway. And if you leave it eight inches too high, that's a pick for Kevin Byard or whoever it's going to be. It probably will be Kevin Byard, given how many he's grabbed this year. That's an interesting that's an interesting like demarcation where like like there are quarterbacks where I'm like, he'll give you some like he'll make some dumb decisions.

23:50Dak will give you some like he'll just throw it at you sometimes. I'm curious to see how how that plays out, because I mean, that is the Bears have been remarkable at coming away with those bounces and getting those. sorts of plays. And that brings me back to the first question, which, which defense can get a stop when they need it. And is that a turnover or two for the bears defense? Cause they've needed to rely on them. When you watch the Niners offense right now, it's just such a reminder of how the component pieces change the complexion of the offense and why that's important. We're like, this wasn't a bad offense last year, Derek, without McCaffrey, but then you watch what it is like with McCaffrey.

24:30And you notice some of the structural differences that can happen and why it makes them so much more dangerous. And just when you watch him right now as both a runner and what he's doing in the passing game, it's just such a reminder of how Christian McCaffrey is one of the most important players in the NFL and what he does to opponents. Like last year, the Niners were top 10 in the percentage of man coverage. They saw top 10. They are bottom six again this year. What is the only difference about the Niners offense this year? It's that Christian McCaffrey is playing. And so you look at that and you just notice how important the kind of material changes are when he's on the field.

25:07And then I feel the same way about watching the offense with Purdy and with Mac Jones, where it feels like there's still a good offense. Mac Jones, if you look at the numbers, their offense was really good with Mac Jones. But then you dig like one layer deeper and you notice like some of the key differences with Mac Jones. Mac Jones was 33rd. is 33rd among 36 qualified quarterbacks this year per next-gen stats and EPA per dropback against man coverage. 33rd of 36. Purdy is second behind only Jordan Love. And I think it's tempting to look at the production that Mack had and compare it to what Brock is doing on a big picture scale and think, all right, it's similar.

25:48But the gaps between them, those are the gaps that matter when you get into the playoffs. Those are like the tiny margins that make the Brock Purdy Niners so much more dangerous than the Mac Jones Niners. And I think that you have seen that over the last couple weeks. Mac Jones is great when when Kyle Shanahan is right in the instances where he's not. And there's going to be instances where every play caller gets like there always are exactly. And like Brock Purdy. And I think this is especially key to point out to like when Brock Purdy first came back, he did not look healthy and look like Brock pretty.

26:22He could not drive the ball as well. He could not run around the way that he needed to. But I think the last two weeks specifically, he looks like the Brock pretty that has brought them to the Super Bowl before. And like that, if he if we're going to get that again, they're going to have to play a lot of these 35 to 32 games. But we know the offense can do that about against just about any defense in the NFL. The 49ers are just instant entertainment right now. And yeah, I mean, Brock Purdy looked like that guy against Monday. So, or he looked like that guy against Indy on Monday, but this, I mean, I hope this, I hope the scoreboard is as explosive as I think it's going to be in this game.

26:57I think missing Kittle, if he doesn't play and it seems like it's trending that way, that's a big deal because what he can give you as a matchup advantage, especially if you're going to play man coverage against them on some of those third downs, if you don't have Kittle and I know Pierce all has been hurt for a good chunk of the year, but Pierce all is also this sort of player. If you don't have both of those guys and most of what you're relying on in the passing game is like McCaffrey and Juwan Jennings, that just gives you fewer overall matchup advantages. Like when you watch what this team is with Kittle and without, I do think Derek, that there is like a market difference.

27:30And so I think that's absolutely worth paying attention to when you think about how this thing is going to go. All right, let's get to the next one here. Eagles bills. Eagles Eagles are currently the three seed in the NFC. They have clinched the NFC East. They are basically locked into the three seed at this point. Bill sit at 11 and four. They are the sixth seed in the AFC. They currently have a 17 % chance to win the AFC East per our numbers. They would need to win out and they would need the Patriots to lose to the Jets or Dolphins for them to win the AFC East. Dave, this is all you. One thing you're looking for in Eagles bills this weekend.

28:04Robert, your bit last week was we don't need the Chargers offense to be great every week. We just need to see that it can be successful against the Cowboys. And I'm going to steal that for this game and say this game feels like it was designed in a lab for the Eagles to get right relative to their run game and like the way that they would probably prefer to play football. It is going to be gross in Buffalo this weekend per the forecast. What they're projecting right now is 60 % chance of rain, weather in the high thirties, low forties, and like up to 20 mile per hour gusts of wind. So you're just going into this game with an excuse to run the football.

28:49And what have we talked about all year? The bills are bad at defending the run. They have given up back to back rushing success rates of 60 % over the last two weeks. The Patriots and the Browns combine have combined for 400 rushing yards on these guys. The bills are officially one of five defenses in the league that has already allowed 2000 rushing yards on the year. And as you might not be surprised to hear, there are the only relevant team in that category. Like it's, it's, it's seller dwellers and the Buffalo bills. So here come the Eagles. It sounded, and maybe it still sounds like obviously Lane Johnson's not the type of guy I would bet against, but it sounded like he was going to be back for this game, except he hasn't practiced yet this week.

29:33So we're recording this on Friday. Maybe he gets onto the field on Friday, but if you get Lane Johnson back, or honestly, even if you don't like you should be able to run the football on the bills with Fred Johnson in the lineup, Landon Dickerson's banged up to same logic applies like Eagles, do your Eagles thing in this game of all games and give me some confidence that you can lean on that. maybe not even lean on it, but at least do it in the playoffs. I want to see what it looks like, because if you can't do it against Buffalo, I don't have a whole lot of hope of this thing humming the way that it's supposed to when you get into the postseason.

30:13I personally I want to see explosives like if they have only like a 40 percent rushing success rate, which is like mildly below average round average. That to me is fine. if we can get three of those 25 yard, 40 yard chunks, because Buffalo will give you like the grind them down five, six yard runs. They are also like one of the worst teams in the league at like Cole Bishop will just miss a tackle or a linebacker will be a little bit late getting all the way to the sideline. That's I think what Philly is going to need to get to win this game, because I I don't really see how they're going to be able to throw in one if the conditions are going to be that bad, but also to like I do think even though the Bills defense can be up and down, I do think the way that they play pass defense will give this Eagles offense some issues.

30:54If they can't get three of those like field flipping runs, this is going to be a pretty tough one for them. I land in the exact same spot. It just feels like the way that this Bills team plays and their ability to kind of put together these bespoke defensive game plans on the back end, especially against this Eagles team, where if you throw the right stuff at them, we've seen how much they can struggle. If they're not going to find those explosives on the ground, I'll be very curious about how tough of a day overall this feels like for the Eagles offense. All right, we're going to take our first quick break and then come back and chat a little Ravens Packers.

31:33Ravens Packers on Saturday. Look at me go. Ravens are seven and eight. They are eliminated from the playoffs with a loss or a Steelers win. They need to win out and the Steelers need to lose out for the Ravens to win the division and make the playoffs. The Steelers get the Browns this week, and then obviously they will play the Ravens again in week 18. The Packers are 9-5-1. They have clinched a playoff berth with the Lions loss yesterday. They are currently the seventh seed in the NFC. They need to win out and they need the Bears to lose out for them to win the NFC North. Derek, this is all you.

32:07One thing you're watching in Packers-Ravens on Saturday. Kind of keeping on the same thing of explosive runs. So since we've talked about the Ravens getting explosives before, but since week 12, the Ravens have a league best nine rushes of at least 20 yards. Some of that is Derrick Henry. Some of that is Keaton Mitchell. But they found ways to get to the perimeter, get up the sideline and get some really explosive runs. The Packers defense, however, has only allowed two of those such runs. And I know that we've talked about all year. No, no, no. Since week 12. Sorry. Oh, OK. All year would be crazy.

32:40If you did that, you would be like the best defense ever if you've done that all year. Sorry, no, just over the last six weeks, which was which is what I looked at for the Ravens as well. And so why I think this could be pretty important is that I think when we think of teams that have run on the Packers, it has been teams that have been able to push them off the ball with double teams, grind them down five, six yards at a time. The Bears were able to do that, especially like the last time that they just played. The Ravens can't really do that. Like they are not an efficient move the ball on you style of run game, put four hands on you, grind you down with duo, any of that.

33:12They are trying to get to the perimeter and hit three of these field flipping runs. Typically, the Packers have not allowed that. At the same time, Evan Williams, his health has been up and down. I think he he's probably not going to play in this game or might not play in this game. And then I think the corners have just not been tackling very well lately, like especially in that Bears game. I thought Keyshawn Nixon had a really tough day in terms of tackling. We've seen, I think, Carrington Ballantyne be a little bit up and down. Nate Hobbs, I think he's been a little bit more back in the nickel for them.

33:40But I think he's an aggressive run fitter like into the formation. But I think in space can still be a little bit of an iffy tackler. And so this could just be one of those games like this is very much like unstoppable force versus like immovable object in terms of team that can get explosives versus team that does not allow them. I actually am a little bit worried, though, that this might be a game where like the dam breaks a little bit for the Packers if they don't have some of their guys stepping up. I'm very amused by the circumstances here in regard to like the playoff situation, because I was looking at this.

34:16It would be easy for me to make like a galaxy brain case that the Packers might be better served by just resting. Like Jordan Love obviously got concussed in that Bears game. He he practiced all week, but he's if he's he's questionable to play. He was limited all week. This is a team with plenty of injuries. All like you're most likely just playing to improve your wild card standing. Obviously, they could still win the division, but you got to win out. The Bears would have to lose out. Is that worth the risk of doing further damage to your injury report? But on the flip side, Lamar Jackson's doubtful to play.

34:53Yeah. what are you, what are you supposed to do against the teams? Probably starting its backup quarterback, except go out and try to win the game. And you know, maybe, maybe you let those chips fall where they may next week. I mean, if the bears beat the Niners, it's a moot point and you can focus on the playoffs after that. But like the Packers are in a situation where even if they would rather be trying to get guys healthy, it's like, all right, well, we owe it to ourselves to win this game and at least try to push it to week 18 if we can. And one of the things that happened not in the Packers favor is the fact that the Lions losing yesterday makes the Lions week 18 game against the Bears completely inconsequential.

35:31And so right now the Bears potentially, if they lose to the Niners, even have every reason to beat the Lions in week 18. And the Lions have no reason to show up with the team that half their guys are hurt. And so it just feels right now like it's tilted to the Bears probably winning the division. And I think that's a point even further in favor of what you're saying, Dave. I agree with you, but like it's, I mean, Dan Campbell's whole culture kickstarted by absolutely by ruining green Bay's season when they were eliminated. So like if anybody's going to give a shit in week 18 with no stakes, it would be the lions.

36:06And again, that's why you, you can't really afford, it's a little different though. It's a little different when you're like, you're building toward the spoiler role in week 18, instead of having a complete letdown to not make the playoffs when you're in the position the lions are in. I'll bet you MC DC will not say that to his team heading into next week. You're probably right. But I, yeah, I mean, it's like I said, I just like, I wouldn't blame the Packers if they were like, what are we doing? Like, let's get some guys healthy for our game as the seven seed, instead of trying to claw uphill toward an unlikely division title.

36:41But you can't, you can't afford to look at it that way, at least until next week. I don't think when we have that conversation on Monday, Derek, about the teams that missed the playoffs that we thought were going to be playoff teams. The Ravens discussion is the one I'm most looking forward to. And I think just because it's the one I have the least feel for just sort of the stuff that came out last week in the Baltimore Sun about the relationship with Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson and just some of that friction there. And, you know, that's stuff that I had heard before, you know, just about Lamar's practice habits and just and just some of the stuff behind the scenes.

37:18And when you're winning, none of it matters. You know, when you're winning a lot of games and you have the best offense in the league and you're winning MVP awards, none of that stuff matters. But now for the Ravens to have this sort of season and the fact that Lamar is going to miss this game again and how many different little things have kind of kept him out over the course of the season. It just feels like such a wasted year. like it just feels like such a wasted year for this team overall and it feels like more of a wasted year for them than it even does for the Chiefs right at least the Chiefs have a handful of Lombardi trophies in the closet like at least the Chiefs have done this and this year just kind of feels like them petering out at the end of whatever this run is for the Ravens to have this sort of season when it felt like this was going to be maybe their shot to do it coming into the year based on what they were last year.

38:07The fact that it felt like they might be the best team in the league and for them to run out of gas in this way. And for this to just be a completely inconsequential Lamar Jackson season after the way that he played last year. Like I would argue that where the Ravens are right now, this is the most depressing end points to any team in the NFL this year, if, and when they do not make the playoffs. And it seems like it's trending that direction. it does feel I think especially that is amped up again with the fact that like Mahomes is not in the playoffs so like this should have been the year that it would have been easy for Lamar Jackson to get over the hump for the Ravens to get over the hump and the fact that in a year where the vacuum has kind of been sealed with all the the chief stuff they're not even probably going to be in the playoffs is incredibly frustrating but just even even think about coming into this game and like we're gonna sit down tomorrow night and watch this game and the lack of juice this game has for what this game should have been in week 17 what a bummer like it just it's sad that this is like what this game feels like heading into the second to last week of the season I'm pretty sure I've said it on the show before and that's that's why I have this opinion and I I know Lamar Jackson missed time I get that but like being this inconsequential in the middle of Lamar Jackson's prime, I think everything should be on the table.

39:30And like, you're seeing chatter going around the league right now. You know, there was a big piece that came out about Lamar's role in all this and people want to start trade rumors, which just sounds asinine to me. I'm on the other side where I'm like, nobody should be a hundred percent certain about their job security in a year where you have Lamar Jackson for the majority of the season and your season might be over a week before week 18. I mean, that's just, that's not palatable to me. And I, like I said, I know injuries have been a factor of it. Lamar's own injury, but you can't, you can't miss the playoffs in a year of Lamar Jackson's prime.

40:08That is, it is, it's gross. I don't know where I land on all of it. And I think that's why I'm framing it as I'm looking forward to the conversation because I want to sit with it over the next like 72 hours before we really dig into it because I think there's a lot of stuff going on and I truly don't know how I feel about which decisions should be made in which direction they should take, but I know it's going to be a juicy discussion. And so I'm looking forward to that on Monday. Let's get to our next one here. Seahawks and Panthers Seahawks are 12 and three. They are the one seed in the NFC with a win.

40:41They have a 61 % chance to win the division and a 57 % chance to get the buy. if the Seahawks and Niners both win in week 17, the week 18 game between them is for the NFC West and the one seed, which, all right, I'm rooting for the Bears to win this game on Sunday, but that's not a bad consolation prize. The fact that that's what Niners Seahawks would mean in week 18. Panthers are eight and seven. They're the four seed in the NFC. They would clinch the NFC South with a win and a Bucs loss to the Dolphins. With any other outcome, week 18 becomes a win and you're in game for the Bucks and the Panthers in the NFC South.

41:17One thing I am looking for in Seahawks Panthers, can the Panthers defense muck this game enough, muck this game up enough to keep it close? Because I have a hard time seeing the Panthers offense lighting it up in this game. If you look at it, their implied total based on the spread and over under here is like 17 to 18 points. That feels right to me. Like this is still below average offense. This is still maybe the best defense in the NFL. But if you look at the other side of the ball, I do think there's a path for the Panthers defense, keeping this game close and keeping this game uglier than the Seahawks want.

41:52It's one specific area that I'm looking at. The Panthers defense this season actually ranks third in the NFL per next gen in passing success rate allowed while playing base defense. And some of that is small sample. They've only had 77 dropbacks in base this year, even though they play base a decent amount overall. They played about 25 % of their snaps and they play it more than half the time against 12 personnel, which I think is worth paying attention to against the Seahawks. But if you look at what the Panthers do out of base, there is some stuff there that I think is kind of intriguing as to why they've been successful in that area.

42:28They have a top three blitz rate out of base looks this year. They zone blitz on 55 and a half percent of place. And so you first look at that, it's like, okay, how much of that is just your five down lineman coming when you're lined up in base looks? There's some of that, but they will do some funky stuff where they're bringing off ball pressures in base defense and dropping guys off the line of scrimmage, dropping ends off. And we've seen what you can do to the Seahawks with some of those looks. And so I do think there are some funkier pressures than you typically get out of base looks. And what was curious to me is they have a lot of coverage variety when they play base defense.

43:07There's about a 50-50 split for the Panthers between single high and two high coverages when they're playing base per next gen. And if you look at it league wide, there's like a 12 percentage point gap. Teams are typically more single high when they play base. And the Panthers actually have the highest cloud coverage rate in the NFL out of base defense. It's more than the Vikings. And so when you look at the pressure packages and how diversified the coverages are, they just have more levers to pull out of base. And there are leverages that I think, or there are levers that I think actually might give the Seahawks offense some problems.

43:42And so that side of the ball structurally, Derek is just more interesting to me than I probably thought it was going to be before I started digging into some of the details of it. So do you think this is going to feel a little bit like, I know the Falcons and the Panthers defense are not one for one, but in the the Falcons game, when the Seahawks struggled to do anything on offense for the first half is because they couldn't hit any of their play action stuff like out of out of their like 12 personnel stuff early down, couldn't throw over the middle of the field the way they wanted to. Is that like where you're thinking the Panthers can muck this one up?

44:13Because I do struggle like I know the Seahawks drop back passing game is not good. I do think in this game that'll probably be fine. But if they can't hit enough of their chunk plays early on in downs, maybe they just don't put up 30 points the way that they can typically. I didn't look up the numbers on this, but anecdotally, when you watch the Panthers defense and some of those looks, the corners are really good. Even when they're playing single high, they'll lock some of the backside of that stuff where the corners will run with crossing routes off play action. And the corners on this team are actually really good at that.

44:45Like Mike Jackson's really good at that. He's had a good season actually. He's had a really nice season. I'm glad y 'all said that can we like I just I was thinking about this while y 'all were talking Mike Jackson was awesome against the Bucks and I forgot to mention it and I felt guilty about it all week like he had a great game and so I'm glad we're shouting him out in this moment when you watch them in those looks they are good at kind of tracking those crossing routes across the field where you can hit some explosives is when you're like sitting down and like the hook area and the linebackers don't get wide enough or you're trying to hit stuff like directly behind the linebackers.

45:21I watched like most of those 77 dropbacks this morning. And so again, the Falcons hit some explosives in that area. And so I do think you can pick on the linebackers in that area. But I think overall, I still think that the Panthers defense playing out of base is more diversified and a little bit harder to deal with than a lot of other defenses in the league. And I think explicitly against the Seahawks, that's just something to pay attention to. Like, I think the Panthers best path forward here is trying to win this game like 24 to 17. Like, I think that's their best shot here. And I don't know if they can do it, but I do think that's the best path.

45:5877 dropbacks of base defense on boxing day morning. You're just, you're not getting that from anybody else, but the athletic football show Jags Colts is our next one here. Jags are 11 and Before they have clinched a playoff berth, they are currently the three seed in the AFC with an 80 % chance to win the division. They would lock up the division with a win and a Texans loss to the Chargers. Oh, by the way, one last thing. Charles Cross doesn't look like he's going to play in that game. I forgot to mention that. Worth mentioning. Because the Panthers front, we talked about last week, they beat up the Bucs offensive line.

46:33And so it just, that's something to keep in mind about that game. And it was something I wanted to mention. All right. Jags currently have an outside shot to get the one seed as well. The Colts eight and seven, they're done here. So this is just a matter of the Jags trying to do everything they can to help their chances to win the division and potentially creep toward that one seed. Dave, this is all you, buddy. One thing you're looking for in Jags Colts this weekend. My one thing is I wish I could have seen Liam Cohen's reaction to turning on the Colts 49ers tape. I feel like that must have been a Christmas present for him when he got, when he uploaded that and had a chance to look at it.

47:11Because think back to that game, Derek, you and I did the recap. The 49ers got whatever they wanted over the middle of the field and they got whatever they wanted targeting their backs and tight ends. What does that sound like to you? That sounds like Jacksonville Jaguars, baby. That sounds like everything Liam Cohen wants his game plan to be. The 49ers were 11 of 14 for 139 targeting the middle of the field. on Monday night, 71 % success rate between the, between the hashes. And Brock Purdy was 14 of 19 for one 51 and three touchdowns targeting backs and tight ends. Like if you watch that game, the Colts linebackers had no answer, nothing going for Christian McCaffrey or George Kittle.

47:59And obviously those are amazing all pro players, but between Jacksonville's own talent and Liam Cohen's ability to draw that stuff up. I just, I expect them to have a really nice day trying to replicate some of the stuff we saw from the 49ers on Monday night. I trust Liam Cohen to do that. I do think it's worth noting sauce Gardner is trending toward being available, which I think, I think the Colts defense will look more like an NFL unit on Sunday than it did on Monday. But I still think, I still think Liam Cohen has the goods here based on what we just sauce it might but in my mind I'm like okay they brought in sauce to follow people right like that that's the whole reason that you bring in a guy like that when the Jags played the Broncos Pat Sertan was all over Brian Thomas Jr and they were like we are not going to let him beat us down the field and the Jaguars were like okay and like it didn't matter like they actually I kind of think the rest of the offense is good enough that like if sauce Gardner just takes away Brian Thomas Jr they're going to be like fine we'll get our explosives on some over routes Trevor will make two plays.

49:03We'll flip a ball to Travis Etienne and he'll take a screen for like, you know, 30 yards, whatever it is. I actually, I'm weirdly at a point where I trust that the rest of the offense has enough to it. Look at you. I I'm loving this so much. I'm loving the evolution of this is incredible. We have last week when the Jags beat up on the Broncos, Derek refuses to believe coming into the game. He's just not there yet. And then the Jags do what they do to the Broncos and now he's just fully bought in. There's no more emotional hedging. He's fully bought in. Here's what I'll tell you. I know that the Jags offense is going to have a shitty day on Sunday and the reason that I know that is because I'm starting Trevor Lawrence in a fantasy championship game.

49:43Oh, me too. The week that you decide to get bought in. We have too much belief here. This is bad. There is no way this goes well based on how you're interacting with this and how much I need the Jags offense to play well. Oh, shit. I'm doing the same thing. That is that seems like bad vibes for Trevor that we're both counting on him to win leagues. And Derek is now just like, it's, it's over. He's just good. This, the Jags offense is good. The fact that he's just writing it in pen where we're dancing with the devil here is this is going to be the week that like Lou and a rumbo gets three interceptions out of him or something.

50:14And I'm going to freak out. I will say one other thing that you have to mention is I'm going to guess I, I expect the Jags to win. Shame on me for having faith in the Jags, but this is probably our last chance to watch the Phillip rivers thing. Cause if the Colts get eliminated, like they they're not going to sit rivers if the Texans win on Saturday, because at that point you've done six days of prep for an opponent. But if the Colts get eliminated, what do you stand to gain from another week of Phillip rivers over trying to develop a young quarterback that you actually have under contract? So like if I think Phillip is going to be like, Shane, let me have it, man.

50:54Let me have one more. Let me go back out there one more time. That just seems, I mean, I've, I have greatly enjoyed watching him. Did you see, by the way, the, he was mic'd up for that game. Like the way that when he went and found D winners and was like, did you, you saw my check and you like, you saw it from her. Like I just, I love that guy, but I still don't understand why you would start him in a meaningless game. That's probably right. And obviously I didn't talk about the game with you guys on Monday night because I was dying, but the, uh, What that performance and just how he played in that game.

51:28I've still watched the game and just the smile on my face. So my experience with that game, I walked into that game with up 27 points in a fantasy game. The other guy had Christian McCaffrey. And so I won by a point. And so the entire game, half of it is just excruciating where I'm, it's like, it's like sitting in a dental chair for three out for an hour and a half. every time the Niners have the ball and the other half of it, I'm having the most fun I can possibly have watching an NFL game. That was like the dichotomy in my experience watching Colts Niners on Monday. When McCaffrey caught that last touchdown where he was the seek, we talked about it, Derek and I on Monday, like the sequence where Tonjes probably caught a touchdown and Shanahan did not challenge it.

52:14And then McCaffrey scored. I was like, Robert is in hell. We were doing the math. This must be terrible. We were trying to do the quick math before we went on for the last one. We were like, did Robert win his game or not? I won by one point. And so that was always happening. However, the Niners had the ball and the Rivers experience is just, it was incredible. Like it was incredible watching him operate that offense. I know the Niners defense is decimated, but at the same time, like how can you not appreciate his ability to just be at the controls after not playing for five years with like a complete inability to throw the ball more than 20 yards.

52:53It's just incredible to watch. All right, let's take one more quick break here and then come back with one more matchup in a little sicko street.

53:05Last game here that we're going to hit Steelers Browns Steelers are nine and six. They have a two game lead in the AFC North 96 % chance per the athletics numbers to host a wild card game. They clinch a, they clinch a playoff berth and a division title with the win. The Browns are three and 12. Really all that matters here is miles Garrett and the sack record. He's a 22. He needs one to break the current record. Derek, this is all you one thing you're watching in Niners Browns this weekend. I mean, that's it. I I'm just watching miles Garrett, like on a team level, there is nothing of consequence or really anything that interesting about this game.

53:42these are two disgusting teams the brown the browns offense can barely move the ball outside of screens the steelers offense is actually better over the last month or so but it's still the steelers offense and still kind of funny to watch i'm pushing back on that a little bit you you really think like the steelers offense is a lost cause there's part of me that like is they're not a lost cause but like they're still at the point where like they're not doing any they might win a wild card game but after that i couldn't i i don't care like they haven't raised that they haven't raised the level enough for me to care.

54:13They're better and they are more watchable, but they have not raised to the level where I care about how good this is going to be. I will say this. I'm flirting with that line. I'm flirting with that line. I think they might have done enough over the last month for me to be like, all right, I'm curious. I care. Let's see what happens. I don't know. They're going to run into somebody and they're going to score like 12 points. That's fair. That is fair. I think that's a good point because that it, it honestly is like the inverse of a lot of the conversations we've had about the AFC playoffs, where I think a lot of the conversations we've had about the AFC playoffs for most of the year have been about teams like the Texans or the Broncos.

54:53And it's like, okay, well, when they have to play against the teams with the real offenses in the playoffs, are they going to be able to keep pace? Well, there aren't that many of those, the Steelers it's more about, well, when they have to play against the teams with the real defenses in the playoffs, What can their offense do? There's a hell of a lot of those. And so it honestly is like a flipped version of how we typically think about which teams are going to succeed in the playoffs and which aren't. I just need him to avoid the bills. I just I need him to avoid the bills and I'll give him a chance of reaching the divisional round.

55:25I don't I don't see them beating Josh Allen. But other than that, I'm I can buy into a wild card win. Well, and so right now they would play the Chargers as the fifth seed, assuming they obviously get the fourth seed. I don't know about this offense versus Jesse Minter's defense, but isn't there a, isn't there a world where the Steelers defense, which is also playing 10 points in that game. They could just dismantle the Chargers offense. I don't know what to make of the Steelers. I don't know what to make of them. I truly don't. It's great. I, I find it refreshing and maybe I think I've, I fall for the cheese with the Steelers sometimes because like, it's more interesting when they're good.

56:04I mean, they're the Steelers. They're this legacy franchise. they've had a couple of good weeks at a time where you want to buy into a team. I think that's all that it is. I think that's right. I'm just like, I'm still a little bit skeptical about how real it is. One thing I did want to mention is obviously we're all watching miles Garrett to see if he sets the record. Dylan cook has been starting at left tackle for the Steelers and doing a good job. Like he's, he's played well and that's the NFL for you is like, Hey, hey, congratulations on your two awesome starts. Go deal with Miles Garrett.

56:38So I'm excited to see what that looks like. Yeah, the Steelers are definitely the team heading into the playoffs that I think I have the least feel for. And I think there's a lot of candidates this year, like a lot of candidates for which team is the most bewildering or most confusing as we get to the postseason. I'm pretty sure the Steelers have the number one seed in that tournament for me. i think it would be easier to come up with a team that i just trust and like i just know what i'm getting like the rams the rams actually the nfc west teams in general i know what i'm getting from all three of them and i know how i feel about all three of them um everybody else is up for debate that's actually a really really good question and a really really good conversation I'm curious.

57:24All right, let's, so let's look at this. So if you look at very, so if you look at like variants, DVO a variance, the two most consistent teams in the NFL this season have been the Rams and the Seahawks. They are number one and two. Wow. The Titans got moved off. The Titan, the Titans have fallen down. The Titans are now back off at the top 10. The Niners are also, uh, they're like eighth right now. And if you go all the way down to the bottom, uh, The Steelers are actually higher than I thought they would be. The Steelers are like 20th, which I figured they would be lower than that, which I would guess is mostly defensive variance.

58:04Like, I feel like the offense like was. Yeah, I think that's probably just was what it was. But the defense would have some weeks where you have like the Jets game and then you would have like the Colts game where you're like getting six turnovers and shit like that. we'd be remiss if we didn't mention too. If Aaron Rogers is the guy that surrenders the sack record to miles Garrett, just what a, what a great moment for his following and Brett Favre's footsteps arc. Yeah. The Bastio is defense is 28th and variance Derek. So to your, to your point, it's just what a, what a weird, weird season. This has been speaking of let's spend a little time on sicko street before we get out of here.

58:45Dave, you want to talk about saints Titans. You wanted to spend a minute sitting with saints Titans heading into the weekend. What, what is speaking to you about saints Titans? Other than the fact that it's the matchup of two of my wins pool teams, my very ill fated wins pool. No, I just, I love, so we're not to not to play spoiler, but we're going to highlight two games in sicko street. One of them is the matchup for the number one overall pick, but I love the fact that as recently as a month ago, Titan saints would have been circled as a game for the number one overall pick. Like that's, that's what this season looked like for both of these teams, particularly when Spencer Rattler was still starting for the saints.

59:26I mean, this was a race to the bottom and we say, we keep saying it, the season is long and that is not the case for either one of these teams. The saints are threatening to play their way out of the top 10 entirely. And the Titans have won two out of three. This is a sneaky, entertaining game. A sneaky, not bad bull is what I put it down in my notes as. And I actually, I would posit to you, gentlemen, there are seven games in the early window on Sunday. Saints Titans is a top four matchup. If you're doing your quad box, obviously you're going, we're going Seahawks, Panthers, Colts, Jags, and Browns Steelers.

1:00:04I think all three are inarguably more interesting. but your competition for the fourth box is Cardinals, Bengals, Patriots, jets, and bucks dolphins. Obviously the bucks are still playing for the NFC South, but I just, I'm done with the bucks. I don't want to reward them with my attention. And so I think this is the fourth best game of the early window. I'm excited to see Tyler Shuck and cam ward and these surprisingly not awful teams try to end the season on a high note. I think it's a fun story. I kind of like this because I think quietly the unit that has been like way better than people realize but nobody gives a shit because the team is not winning enough is the Saints defense like they've had a couple of really rough weeks especially like in the middle of the season but like they've been like a mildly above average unit for a lot of the year and I actually think their front is playing well like every now and then Cooley McKinstry has a really good game they've gotten some decent play out of the young safeties at times like it's I'm kind of with Dave It's quietly a fun game, not for none of this matters this year, but in terms of like, how good do we think these teams can be next year?

1:01:10I think there's a there's a little bit to watch. The Saints defense is 11th in a weighted defensive DVOA. I mean, it's pretty good 11th. And then you combine that with the fact that the offense with Tyler shock has been pretty has been watchable. Yeah, they've been they've been doing some good stuff. And so we talked about the show we're going to do next week about the teams that aren't making the playoffs. We're also going to do one which we missed last week because I was sick. We're going to do it next week about some of the silver linings for these teams that aren't going to make the playoffs and are picking near the top 10 of the draft.

1:01:38The Saints, that's not going to be hard. Like you're not going to have to dig very deep to find the silver lining for the Saints team and where they are right now. And so I'm with Dave where the vibes around Saints Titans just feel drastically different right now than they might have six or eight weeks ago. And, you know, that's good for both of those teams because it did not seem like it was trending in that direction. Let's get to the other sicko street game where the vibes are not quite as good. Giants and Raiders. Both of these teams are two and 13. They are the only two win teams in the league.

1:02:10The loser all but locks up the top pick in the 2026 NFL draft. Dave, what is the sickest street that you're going to be on here while watching Giants Raiders? Okay. I'm legitimately excited about this one thing. And it's that Kevin Harlan is on the call. Kevin Harlan is the play by play for this game. And it's also, it is the also, it's the only other game on in the late window. It's Eagles bills on Fox late. And so CBS has the tank bowl. So you are well within your right to play close attention to this schlock fest and Kevin Harlan. I just want, I want this game to be decided late and I want Kevin Harlan to give it like divisional round playoff treatment, Just like losing his mind over some insane play to give somebody the number one overall pick that that is the epitome of sicko street for me as Kevin Harlan turning in like an all time call over something that happens in this very awful football game.

1:03:11I feel like spiritually the Raiders should have the number one pick in the draft this year. They have felt they're the worst team in the NFL. The Jets have also given them a run for their money. The Jets are also pretty gnarly, but they don't get to play. the jets at least brady cook is playing for the jets yeah that's true the raiders technically have their guys the fact that we also we knew like i'm not saying we thought for sure that it would be this bad for the jets but we had a feeling this team was in for a bumpy ride and the raiders were kind of a darling pick to at least be fun if not make the playoffs like most people thought that they would be a watchable seven and ten and guess what they're not at all And I, so considering what they were supposed to be, I, I have no problem saying, yeah, spiritually, they feel like they should have the number one pick.

1:04:03I agree. I'll say this. They looked like the version of that watchable seven and 10 last week against the Texans. I actually think that what the Raiders offense specifically looked like against Houston last week, that's kind of what I expected them to be coming into the year. And so there is a version of this Raiders team that is that like competent yet flawed team we expected them to be. We'll see if it can show up two weeks in a row. Because right now the Raiders, I think we'll see what happens with Jackson Dart. This is a conversation that we can continue into the offseason about what the Giants should do.

1:04:37There's a decent chance that the Giants have their quarterback of the future. The Raiders need to be in a position to draft one. And so the Raiders losing this game and getting the number one pick and kind of being in the catbird seat for the draft is extremely important to the Raiders and like what their offseason has to look like. Dave, I have a very quick question for you about the first overall pick in the Raiders. We're going to assume it's going to be Mendoza, right? If a team needs a quarterback, he would be the most likely guy to be. Yeah, that would be the prohibitive favorite. He feels extremely not Raiders quarterback, which I think is very funny.

1:05:11Yes, absolutely. The Raiders have this bad boy, grimy aesthetic, and Fernando Mendoza just seems like the friendliest, happiest guy in the world. Doesn't he seem like a Brady guy, though? Doesn't he seem like very Brady-coded overall? That's actually a fantastic point, actually. Okay, you know what? You've actually flipped me the other way. He does very much seem like a guy that Brady's going to get him in a room and be like, cut the draft stuff in February. We're good. We're good here. That is a really good point. All right. That's all we've got for today. We will be back on Sunday night, breaking all of this stuff down.

1:05:48A lot of fun stuff to dig into. like I mentioned, uh, only three shows from us this week, because I was sick. We will have five for you guys next week. And so we will be making that up to you. And then we're going to have so much stuff as we get into the playoffs. Just a quick reminder. There's still a few tickets available to our live show at Lincoln hall on January 7th. Uh, if you guys are in Chicago or want to come in, we're going to be doing our first live show at Lincoln hall, January 7th, little bit of a playoff preview. Also, we're going to hand out some awards, you know, not their typical awards.

1:06:18We're going to do our own version of a season long awards during that show. And so I encourage you guys to come check that out. We're very excited about it for now. That's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.