Week 18 Preview: Three division titles on the line, including Seahawks-49ers for all the NFC marbles

0:03Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays the week 18 preview is here just a few games that really matter on this slate those are the ones we spent a lot of the athletic football. things at stake. We talked about some incentives that players could potentially get and just some milestones worth keeping an eye on. And then a pretty entertaining update to the wins pool, which is very, very, very close for who's going to be in second and third place as we get into week 18. So a lot to hit today. Let's get to that conversation with me, Derek Lassen and Dave Hellman right now.

0:54It's the week 18 preview here on the athletic football show. Obviously week 18 is always a weird one. Not every game matters. And this year, only a few of these games matter. So we're going to be digging into three games in earnest today because Dave, for some reason, the Chargers decided that they didn't want to make things interesting for the number one seed in the AFC. So we came into this with like four or five games that had actual stakes. And now we're down to like three and a half. I'll be, I had forgotten about this, but social media reminded me that Mike Williams got hurt for the Chargers in this situation a few years ago.

1:28So yes, with what Justin Herbert's been through this year and what the Chargers have in front of him. I can't I can't say I blame them for just trying to get to the postseason with a shred of good health. I want to be very clear. I don't mind them doing what they're doing in terms of it being smart. I just think it's taken one other game with actual meaningful stakes off of the table here. And I do not really blame Justin Herbert for her. Kind of like you said, Dave, like him, just let me have my guys. I don't really give it. I don't really care who we play in the playoffs. Just I need my guys at my disposal and we can win the game.

2:01Other than the games that we're going to dig into, obviously, there's some seeding implications still to be figured out in week 18. We're going to talk about that at the end, along with just some incentives to keep in mind, not for any actionable purposes, but just something to be thinking about as you're watching these games. And especially for a couple of these, what it might mean for some season long awards, which we will be hitting next week in the middle of the week on the show. let's start with our games of the week here presented by bet MGM with the Seahawks and the Niners. The Seahawks are one and a half point favorites in San Francisco.

2:33Dave, I think this is a pretty easy one, but why is this a game of the week? You've heard of a winner go home game. Can I interest you in a win and go home game as in you get to go home game for the rest of the playoffs? I mean, we're talking about home field advantage in the NFC, particularly for the 49ers. I mean, we're going to talk about it, just how amazing it is that a team this banged up is in position to get the one seed. But if they win this game, they could get all the way to the Superbowl without having to travel ever again. Cause that's where Superbowl 60 is, is the Bay area. So unbelievable incentive, obviously the Seahawks as well.

3:10You get to stay home and make people come to Lumen field. One of the best home field advantages in football. Yeah. I mean, what else is there? It's the two of the best teams in the league, the two top teams in the NFC. The NFC West has been the class of the league all year long, and it's not surprising that two of the three teams in the division are in this spot heading into the final weekend. I can't remember which broadcast it was this week, but they were talking about some of the historical numbers associated with getting the bye or being a wildcard team and what that means for your playoff chances and getting to the Super Bowl.

3:43Some of that is self-selecting. The best teams usually get the bye and the lesser teams typically are wildcard teams. And so that's why in part the teams with the buy go to the Super Bowl. But it still is really, really important to get the buy. You play one fewer game in this crazy season where it feels like anybody can lose to anybody. And so only having to play two games in the NFC playoffs versus three where the entire NFC field outside the winner of the NFC South feels dangerous in the postseason. Derek, this is a massive, massive deal. Whoever wins this game. yeah this this is a huge game because we'll talk about the afc side of the bracket where the broncos and patriots are kind of fighting for the one seed but whoever loses that you're still the two seed and you get to play like a lower end uh team in that bracket this is like you drop all the way to the wild card if you lose this one it's a huge huge game and i think this one is fun from the divisional stuff too because so many of these divisional games have impact like teams are playing week 15 and then week 17 again or in week 18 now and like you're kind of getting these back to back divisional games.

4:45These teams played in week one, like like some of the best Seahawks players weren't even playing in that game. It was just been a very weird season for everybody like since then. And so this is one of the rare cases where we actually don't have very much to go off of based on how these two teams played the last time. And it's just been a weird season for the Niners overall. Obviously, they have a chance to get the one seed on Sunday. But if you just think about the different iterations of the Niners over the course of this year, obviously early in the year, you lose your best defensive players within the first like six weeks of the season, you lose your quarterback for a good chunk of that stretch.

5:19And so we have that moment in like October where the Niners continue to win in part because they're playing a lot of bad teams, but it's a Mac Jones led offense. That's solid, but kind of unspectacular. And then we're worried about the defense and then Purdy gets back and you're still worried about the state of the defense because they're so young and banged up. And the offense doesn't look very good because Purdy's still not all the way back healthy. And so you have a couple of these strange performances where they beat up on the Cardinals, but they don't look very good. And then they win against the Panthers, but that's an ugly game on Monday night.

5:50And now you have this like final stage of the season for the Niners where the quarterback looks healthy and the offense looks like arguably the most dangerous offense in the NFL. So even if it's kind of been this weird route to the one seed where they've never really felt like the scariest team at any point this year, we are now arriving at kind of like the final station of the season where they might feel like the most dangerous team because of how scary the offense looks. You just got to do it at the right time. I actually do think I don't know if I would full throated make the argument that they are the best offense in football right now.

6:29But if somebody wanted to do it based on like the last three weeks and also just the history of what we've seen this offense be when they have a lot of their guys. I don't think that that would be that crazy. like what they've done to obviously the Colts. And I know the Bears are the Bears, but like they made that game look incredibly easy from start to finish. And even when pretty had to make plays outside of the pocket, he looked really good and healthy, which like you said, that Cardinals game, they beat the Cardinals. Brock pretty didn't look like he could move or make plays outside of the pocket in that game, which like that's that's the whole reason he's been the upgrade for the offense.

6:59And so the fact that he looks like that, it's like the fact that they're here and they do look like they are hitting their stride. You just got to get hot at the right time, especially in a season like this where there really is no powerhouse type of team. Yeah, but I said this on the week 17 recap show. And that's I mean, the stakes make it juicy no matter what. But it's so cool that we get to see just how for real they are, because this is not the Bears or the Colts. With all due respect to those teams, this is the if the nastiest defense in the NFL. I mean, the Broncos are up there, too. The Texans are incredible.

7:35Don't get me wrong. But you know what? Like when you just go, when you go one all the way to the bottom, like, you know, defenses lean on like 15, 16, 17 guys, like one all the way to the bottom. I'll take the Seahawks against anybody because it just feels like wave after wave after wave of badass at all three levels of the defense. And so what a phenomenal opportunity to find out just how real the 49ers offense is. It's a fun conversation and maybe one we can have as we get into the playoffs because the best defenses in the league this year are going to make the playoffs for the most part. I think Seattle top to bottom is probably the most complete and deepest team because even when you're digging into the depth, like look what they've done at safety this year, for example.

8:23The fact that Julian Love missed all that time and you have guys like Tai Okada having to play a bunch of snaps and it just never really matters. Like that's how deep they are. Linebacker has been that way. The front goes six or seven deep. I do think that they're the most complete and deepest team on defense in the league. The Texans are a little bit more top heavy, but I think their star power is more pronounced. And I think that when you talk about being the nastiest defense in the league, I still think the Texans scare me the most, even if the Seahawks top to bottom are a little bit more complete.

8:54I don't know. And I don't want to be in a position where I'm arguing against the Texans. They're they're disgusting and scary and they hit like sons of bitches. But I just like just rewatching this Seahawks Panthers game. It feels like there's 18 guys on the field and they all just have a bad attitude and they all make tackles in space and they all beat double teams. They just just beat the shit out of you for three and a half hours. All of them like Tai Okada is out there making amazing open field tackle after open field tackle. and Julian Love has the pick and Byron Murphy is absolutely incredible.

9:34Like he needs to be talked about like Jalen Carter is talked about by people that watch the league at large. Like he's disgusting. Leonard Williams, Derek's been singing his praises all year. Tank Lawrence has been one of the best free agency additions of the entire season. That's only like half of all the good players that they have. Like it's just, it's ridiculous. Let's start with that side of the ball. Cause obviously that's the most intriguing side of the ball. You have the hottest offense in the league, even if it best, whatever. They're the hottest offense in football right now, playing against what might be the best defense in football right now.

10:06Number one thing you are looking for, Derek, when the Seahawks, excuse me, when the Niners have the ball in this game is what? This for me is what happens over the middle of the field for the Seahawks defense. And so I looked at throws that were between the numbers 10 to 20 yards. It's the bucket that we all use for that. The Seahawks have only allowed 48.1 % completion rate over that area of the field, which is the best in the league. It's also 16 % lower than the league average. That number also drops to 44.2 % if you remove the Matthew Stafford games. And the reason I think that that is really important when comparing the Matthew Stafford to what the Niners offense might do, you can picture five or six of the throws that Matthew Stafford made against his defense this year, where he's putting it past Ernest Jones ear hole barely because he can throw the ball 100 miles an hour.

10:56Brock Purdy is a good quarterback and can make a lot of the middle of the field throws, but he leaves some air under. He kind of like lets guys go up and get it, and it doesn't really get there with that kind of pace. I do think if you try to do that against the Seahawks defense, you're going to give them some chances that I feel pretty good about them being able to capitalize on. And so obviously the Niners can beat you in some different ways, But I do think that that is one way that the Seahawks can make this game really difficult on the Niners. We saw it in week one. I mean, that was the interception that Ernest Jones had over the middle of the field.

11:26We saw it happen in week one. So I think right now, I think that's a really good thing to bring up. I went back and watched that week one game just because I was curious. Obviously, it's so long ago that I don't know how much you can carry over. The two things that really jumped out to me, the Seahawks play man coverage on 34 % of their dropbacks in that game per next gen. That is the highest rate they've played an entire game all season. And I think some of that is kind of an echo of what was effective and what teams did to the Niners last year. And teams have kind of gone away from that. And so I don't anticipate the Seahawks leaning into that to quite the same extent.

11:59The thing that really jumped out to me that I do think is something you want to tap back into is that, in my opinion, some of the best plays the Seahawks had in that first matchup. The interception to Ernest Jones. Julian Love had a sack early at some point in that game. and then multiple other plays where they're making Purdy look uncomfortable, is they're bringing off-ball players as part of their pressure plan. Some of it's simulated pressure, some of it's actually bringing five. There have been years where Purdy and the Niners' offense has been absolutely deadly when they've been blitzed. That's been one of the strongest areas of the entire passing game.

12:32This year, it's not a huge sample size, but when you bring zone blitzes against the Niners, that is one spot they have struggled. Purdy this year, negative 0.18 EPA per dropback against zone blitzes per next gen stats. Again, it's only like 40 dropbacks total. So take that with like a massive grain of salt. But when you just think about it anecdotally, Purdy's been so good at being able to extend escape. If you're bringing a linebacker or a safety through the sea gap and you're trying to condense that space and make him play from the pocket and you have a front that's as big and as strong as the Seahawks front is overall.

13:09I think that's what I would lean on. I would want to be bringing five bodies playing zone behind it and just trying to condense that space as much as I could, because I think that's one place where you can get after them a little bit. I agree. I think it's twofold. It's one you're keeping Purdy in the pocket, which I think some of his best work over the past three weeks has been when he's been able to escape, whether that's as a runner, whether that's as a thrower, whatever. It's also truthfully, the best way to cover Christian McCaffrey is to just make him block. And he's actually he's a really good pass protector, but I would rather ask him to do that.

13:41And we keep pretty in the pocket, make him throw to somebody else, then let him out on a route. And so I think them occupying the Niners best player that way and then trying to keep pretty in the pocket with. And see, the Seattle does have great bodies for it. Chenin Wosu, Demarcus Lawrence, like Leonard Williams. These are pocket crushing guys. They have one guy who's not my face, like the only one who's not an overwhelming like power player out there. He's there. He's their one designated speed guy. can you can you get the Niners to do that though like so much of this season for them has been funneled through Christian McCaffrey and I just gotta believe they they they won't let you take him off the table with what he's done for them over the course of this season so in my mind it's it's not necessarily that you have to get them to do it every play it's that on the four instances that we can keep christian mccaffrey in the backfield can we get to purdy can we get him to throw one up yes can we get a negative play and so i think it's just trying to get the volatile moments in those times where you do keep him in because i think you're right they will get him out they'll motion him they'll just say we're going five uh five oh protection anyway and we're going to swing him out whatever it is they will get you check in the backfield they'll put you check in the backfield and have him be like that kind of like h back where they're using him in they're doing that a decent amount the other use check thing that i think is worth pointing out some of the stuff that they're doing with him in motion right now where he's in that kind of like tilted alignment as an H back and then he essentially can do like anything from that spot he'll either motion to the strong side and lead up he'll fake motion to one side and then peel it back to the other side to either like cut the defensive end or lead up on the weak side they're doing that a lot it's kind of time to add layers to the run game and Dave I know that's one question you had about the way that this thing could go is that the Niners for the most part this year their run game has it's lagged at times, but it has looked really good over the last few weeks.

15:32Now that becomes a question of, is that a product of playing against the Colts and the Bears? Or are we actually seeing enough life from the Niners run game where that can be a strength of who they are as we head into the playoffs? Plug for our guy, Ted Nguyen. He's got a phenomenal cut up of what the Niners are doing with Juszczyk right now and the ways they might use him in this game. And that is, it's something that I have my eye on because throughout the season, like if you've just been keeping tabs on the Niners from afar, they have not run the ball as efficiently or as effectively as you might expect, considering Christian McCaffrey and their reputation and all of that stuff.

16:13The last two weeks, though, they have had phenomenal success running the football. They've had, you know, they've had success rate up around 50 percent to their better performance of the season. Obviously, that's against Indianapolis, against Chicago and Chicago. It's not it's not the same thing. That's what we're talking about here. Where is is this Niners offense figuring it out? and is the stuff that they do with Juszczyk, using him in motion, using him as a guy that can misdirect a defense and just play a variety of different hats, is that, I hate to say for real, because I'm sure they can do it against plenty of other teams, but can you do it in this game?

16:55Can you do it against a team that might be there at the end of the line in the playoffs? The Seahawks are number three in the NFL in rushing success rate and EPA per carry on defense. only 6.4 of their rushing attempts have gone for an explosive, which is number two in the league as well. And their top 10 and stuff rates. So it's looked really good and I'm sure it would look good in a lot of playoff games they could play, but, but this will be very informative. Let's get to the other side of the ball. In my opinion, when I'm thinking about of the four units in this game, who has like the largest onus on them and how the game is going to go.

17:34I think it's the Seahawks offense for me If the Seahawks offense plays the way they did against the Panthers last week I just don't think they're going to win this game Because even if we have faith that Seattle can slow the Niners down More than the Colts or the Bears have I still think the Niners offense is going to have some success in this game I think it's going to be really hard to win this game with 20 points If you're Seattle And based on the way the offense has played And just some of the relative struggles that they've had recently And considering the state and the quality of the Niners defense Dave, I just think that the Seahawks offense like really has to have a nice day in this game in order to keep pace with San Francisco, even considering how good the Seahawks defense is.

18:14It's funny how many games the Seahawks have won in dominant fashion. Like you think back to the Falcons game a while back, obviously this Carolina game, but so much of their success has hinged on the defense, putting them in advantageous situations. only nine seattle touchdown drives in the last six weeks have started on their own side of the field uh and five of their touchdown drives in this stretch out of 14 have started on the opponent's 35 yard line or closer and that doesn't include so she even split basically yes yes and that doesn't include rashid shaheed having you know he had a kick return against atlanta he had the huge punt return against the rams like defense and special teams is doing a ton of heavy lifting for the Seattle Seahawks.

19:02And that's great. But can you count on that over the course of three or four playoff games in a row? I get a little bit nervous. And I was curious about this because it clearly hasn't been the case all year, right? I mean, we were talking about Sam Darnold as an MVP candidate over the first half of the year. JSN has a chance at offensive player of the year. In the first nine weeks of the season, the Seahawks had 19 touchdown drives that not only started in their own territory, but took at least six snaps. And I think that's important because if you're a Seahawks fan listening to this, you're probably thinking of plenty of big offensive plays, right?

19:38But they have had so many three and four play touchdown drives where they hit a 50, 60, 70 yarder, and they're just down in the red zone immediately. On possessions where they've kind of had to be more methodical, it has been incredibly hit or miss in the last seven weeks. They've only had five of those. They have only had five methodical touchdown drives that started on their side of the field really since that Rams game. And so I would like to see it in a game like this where, you know, I'm I really respect what Robert Sala has done with this unit considering everything. But you should be able to get everything you want against the 49ers.

20:19And if you can't do that, I get a little bit nervous about the postseason. A couple of numbers I'll throw out there just to kind of speak to what we're discussing here. The Seahawks are 13th in weighted offensive DVOA right now. Like they're just, you felt it over the last four to six weeks. The fact that there has been sort of a downward slide for that unit and speaking to that ability or inability to put together those methodical touchdown drives. The Seahawks are essentially tied for dead last in the NFL in number of plays that comprise their scoring drives. It's about seven plays per drive.

20:51They just don't have as many of those drives as other good offenses because they've been so explosive. The only team still 17 weeks into the year with a more explosive pass rate than Seattle are the Patriots and the Packers. That's it. They have relied on explosives in the passing game. And that's why, Derek, I thought the Panthers did such a good job last week because I think they really did a thorough kind of intentional job of making sure we're going to limit the explosives. We're going to cut crossers. We're going to have our corners play over the top of everything. and we're going to make you consistently check the ball down, run the ball efficiently and string some of these drives together.

21:28And if I'm the Niners, that's exactly the style of game I want to play against the current version of the Seahawks offense. I couldn't agree more. If the dilemma is like, do we make Darnold beat us by throwing four post routes or do we make him beat us by hitting 20 balls under the 10 yard line? I would much rather make him play that game, play the efficient game. And I do think, like you said, the Panthers, I thought, did a really good job of staying on top of stuff, which, again, the Seahawks want to take a lot of these deep shot plays. They also boot a lot, like a lot of their the way that the offense function is we're going to get under center, do all this own stuff and we're going to boot off of it.

22:03The Panthers, I thought, had a really good game plan for a lot of their boot stuff. One, I thought the you know, you talking about some of those crossing routes, the linebackers did a phenomenal job staying under a lot of those when they knew they were getting zone flow, boot flow. I thought that that was really good. And then at least like a half dozen times, it felt like they would roll down safety Trevin Merrick on the line of scrimmage, kind of like an edge player where he would be to what they think the boot side is going to be. And so when Sam Darnold is free, you've got Trevin Merrick like right there in his face.

22:32And so typically, sure, that's a defensive end. But a safety is a hell of a lot faster and going to get in the quarterback's face a lot faster. And then even even if he just needs to be like a backside run down player in the run game and they're running zone away from him if he's unblocked like yeah mary can get there too there was one where he got unblocked where they tried to run away from him he got a six yard tackle for loss so i think just some of those game plan things i do think there's a chance they really make the seahawks be methodical and i don't trust this drop back passing game enough for that i think they have to run the ball efficiently in this game too based on like the current state of the niners run defense if they can't do that i think that becomes a problem because i think that's one of the avenues to methodical consistent offense against this diners team is being able to run the ball.

23:12And the run game has looked better recently, but it's still been very up and down for Seattle for a good chunk of the year. You talk about boot plans and perimeter pressures, things like that. The Niners will do that. They did it against the Bears last week where they'll send the nickel against a team they think is going to be using a lot of play action on early downs and doing some of that boot stuff. Upton Stout currently dealing with concussion. He was limited in practice this week. So that's worth considering. Some of the other injury stuff, it sounds like George Kittle is going to play, which I think is huge in man coverage situations.

23:41Like what he's been able to do when they need a got to have a completion on like third and seven in the first game. These two teams played. He had some really nice moments against the Seahawks safety specifically just kind of speaks to how far Seattle secondary and Seattle's defense has come over the course of the year. Like Emin Wari didn't even play in that game. Okada was somebody that was kind of swimming in that game. They just don't feel that way anymore. And so the safeties against Kittle matchup, I think, is an interesting one. And then the last injury thing that I think is worth mentioning, there's a chance both left tackles don't play in this game.

24:14Both of those guys are dealing with a hamstring injury. And we talk about the ability to crush and condense the pocket against the Niners. If Trent Williams is not going to play, I love Austin Booker. The guys that they're putting on the edge for Seattle are built a little bit differently than Austin Booker when it comes to consistently crushing the pocket against the Niners offense. Yeah, I'll take those guys crushing the pocket against any backup tackle. Austin Pleasance had a nice night replacing Trent against Chicago, but this is not that. Yeah. Tank Lawrence and Enchanan Uosu are built a little bit differently than Austin Booker, who's got the length, but not necessarily the oomph.

24:52I do just want to note. And again, I really do admire the job Robert Sala's done. But over the last six weeks, the Niners have the worst defensive success rate in the league over the last six weeks. five of their last six opponents have outperformed their season long success rate when they've played the Niners. And that includes the Browns. That includes the Titans. Like some abysmal offenses have gotten things clicking against San Francisco. So again, I, I view this, I hate to call it a get right opportunity when the number one seed in the NFC is on the line, but it would be very disconcerting if the Seahawks can't at least get into the mid to high twenties, preferably even higher.

25:34I mean, if this could be another game, like what we saw on Sunday night, I think we'd all be pretty happy with that. I, again, it goes back to me thinking that Seattle's offense has the most pressure on it of any of the units in this game, because based on what you just said, they need to have a good game against the current version of the Snyder's defense. All right, let's take our first quick break and then come back with one of the other win and end games of week 18.

26:00The Ravens at the Steelers. The Ravens are three and a half point favorites on the road. Dave, why is this a game of the week? Somebody has to win the AFC North. Somebody sure does. That's a weird thing to say about a division that is, you know, piled up so much equity over the last two decades, but it's where we are at the end of 2025 and into 2026. It's, it's a gross division. It's been two gross seasons for these teams relative to what they are as organizations and what the expectations were, particularly for the Ravens. But I said this a few weeks ago, the only thing more embarrassing than winning this AFC North would be losing it.

26:43And so you just, you gotta find a way to get this thing over the finish line. And, and if they do, I'll, I'll stop being mean for a second. and say the team that wins this game, you get a home playoff game. We've seen something from both of these teams that suggest they could reach the divisional round of the playoffs. I don't think that's out of the question, but you got to win on Sunday night first. Especially in this current field, like getting in is a huge part of the battle here. Just getting in the dance in what it feels like a wide open season. I'll say this. If the Steelers lose this game, I think there will be some of the normal frustration with the Tomlin era and there'll be people pissed off in Pittsburgh and that will happen.

27:23At the end of the day, the Steelers were probably supposed to be this sort of team. They were probably supposed to be a team that finished somewhere around 500 that had a 42-year-old quarterback that was available for very little this offseason. You have some holes offensively. The defense is, I don't even know what to make of it. Like, it's still a pretty good unit, but there are weeks where they look completely hapless. There are weeks where they look excellent. this version of the Steelers I think even if they fall short it shouldn't necessarily be a surprise about what their season looked like the Ravens need to win this game like the Ravens need to win this game and get into the playoffs I don't think that the Ravens winning the AFC North and being a playoff team should erase any of the bigger picture conversations about why this season was disappointing about the Ravens but Derek if the Ravens go from being the team with the best preseason Super Bowl odds of any team in the NFL to missing the playoffs in Lamar Jackson's prime, even if he's been banged up this year, that would be a disaster.

28:26So you win this game. And even if you lose in the first round of the playoffs, I think your season goes from the total flaming nightmare train wreck to a significant disappointment. And the gap between those two things I think is significant enough for this game to really really matter for Baltimore you can live with disappointment and then just start coping yourself into like ah we had guys banged up the front was never healthy and Lamar was never healthy you can start to do that if you lose the game you probably start spiraling the other way about like yeah maybe calling for people's jobs and stuff which again I've said I still think that you give Harbaugh another chance but I don't think that will happen but the conversation is very different you understand why the noise would start would start to kind of trickle up if that happens.

29:09Let me be the reckless one then, because it's a good rule of thumb to say like there there's usually a shock firing every every NFL coaching cycle, or at the very least, it's not uncommon. We're are we ruling out the idea that the loser of this game could be facing a pink slip situation on Monday? I think it's a very remote possibility. I think for the Ravens, it's even more remote. And I just don't think it's something that the Steelers would do. I don't think Mike Tomlin ever gets fired in Pittsburgh. I think it's a, Hey Mike, maybe it's time for you to seek out other opportunities sort of conversation.

29:45And I don't think either of those things happens. Those things happen no matter who loses the game. I just can't imagine it. That's kind of where I'm at too. Let's dig into the sides of the ball here. When the Steelers have the ball in this game, I want to start here. There's been a lot of discussion over the last week about how important it was that DK Metcalf did not play against the Browns last week. And I completely understand that the Browns played a ton of man coverage. You have all of these like one-on-one go balls to Adam Thielen and Scotty Miller and MVS. And I get that it would be very important for DK Metcalf to be in there in those situations.

30:20Overall this season though, it's not as if DK Metcalf has been this incredibly important player for what the Steelers offense has been. You look at the entire year, DK Metcalf has two games with a hundred yards receiving. He has four games with more than 75 yards receiving. He has one game with more than five catches. One, that game happened to be the last time the Steelers played the Ravens. So even if I think overall his important to what the Steelers have been is probably overstated. He was a load bearing piece to the game plan. The last time these two teams played multiple explosives down the field, the Ravens did play a lot of man coverage.

31:01And so, Derek, when I project forward about what the Steelers offense is going to look like against the Ravens defense this week, I do think this is one of those games where you are going to feel the fact that DK Metcalf is not there. You are. I remember saying after the recap, when we did this game was like, it's the one unacceptable way to let the Steelers beat you is to just let Aaron Rodgers throw a couple of go balls to his best. But like you, you make them do something else to you. And obviously the Ravens, you know, they gave up a couple in that game and they ended up losing that with DK Metcalf not in the game I don't know who they're going to do that to like MVS at this stage in his career doesn't scare me and none neither do any of the other guys that they've got for it and really like I know that the Ravens played a lot of man coverage which I think we talked about on our last show do it again like it's the only guy that you would be scared of in man coverage is DK Metcalf and not even as like oh he's gonna win on some outbreakers he's gonna win on a slant no he's just gonna take one-on-one against Marlon Humphrey on a goal ball and we're going to win it that way.

31:57Aaron Rodgers, other than that really has not been very good against man coverage this season. And so if Metcalf and those goal balls aren't there, the Ravens should just play their game and they'll probably be okay. I wouldn't let what happened last time scare me off. If I were the Ravens, the only other guy that I think is relatively like has done something in those moments is Calvin Austin. He's going to be back in this game, which I do think is worth mentioning. But if you look at the numbers per next gen stats over the course of the season, among quarterbacks with at least 200 dropbacks, the only guys with a lower dropback success rate against man coverage than Aaron Rodgers are Justin Fields, Michael Penix, Dylan Gabriel, and Cam Ward.

32:29I'm making him beat me that way. I'm not going to live with 25 underneath completions over the course of this game. If I'm the Ravens, I'm going to make them beat me over the top because they've shown they can do it one time all season. Y 'all are just willing for this to be become known as the Calvin Austin game. That's what's happening here. Well, it has to be too because we haven't mentioned darnell washington is out for the season so that's even one more guy he's like quietly become one of rogers's favorite targets so it really might have to be the calvin austin game i really i mean calvin austin needs to be that guy we saw what it looked like we saw what it looked like without him and dk last week against the browns and yeah i mean i think kenny gainwell can be a big piece of this and and jalen warren obviously running the football, but Calvin Austin kind of feels like it as far as threatening the Ravens downfield.

33:24Calvin Austin missed the last game against the Browns. The other guys who did not play in that game that are likely going to play this week against the Ravens, Brandon Echols, a corner, James Pierre, a corner, Isaac Salamala guard and TJ Watt. If you go back and you watch the previous matchup between the Ravens and the Steelers, every single one of those guys had at least one or two like highlight moments that includes Salamala, by the way. There was that one extended play that Rogers makes outside of the pocket, drifting to his left, where he finds Metcalf late. The block that Salamalo makes on that play that he holds it for like four and a half seconds, one on one that allows that play to happen.

34:00So every single one of those guys came up big. And I think that's worth at least keeping in mind when you think about why the Steelers can look a little bit different this week than they did last week against the Browns, even with DK Metcalf not play. it's easy to poke fun at the Steelers and especially coming off of that Browns game but I think I think it would be lazy to just assume it's going to look similar like again like Calvin Austin he's not a world beater but just having having an adult in the room who can at least alleviate some of that and make everything a little bit easier on down the line I think that helps.

34:37I think Sumalu obviously helps. And then Jalen Ramsey can actually play safety if Echols and Pierre are both back, which he has not been doing the last two weeks. So this is still going to be a team with nine, 10 wins that has the four seed. I'm not saying they're great, but I think this could look like a much more coherent version of the Steelers. And the last thing I'll say about the offense last week, they were hamstrung in two ways. Obviously you don't have DK Metcalf. If you don't have any of your speed downfield stuff, they also clearly did not want Miles Garrett to play the game, which is that's how you treat Miles.

35:11I know I joked about it at the time, but like, that's how you should treat Miles Garrett. Like you do not want him participating in the football game. They don't have to do that against the Ravens. Like you're not, you're not, you don't have to treat Kyle Van Noy that way or anything like that. So they're at least a little bit freed up in that sense. And I think that's part of the reason that they were able to kind of, I'll say this. I think some people in the moment were like, well, the reason that the COS were able to push the ball down the field against the Ravens is that they weren't afraid of the pass rush.

35:33those balls are still coming out in like a second and a half. It has nothing to do with like longer developing plays. I do think that part of that that does matter carrying over the Ravens pass rush needs to be better in this game, independent of how long Rogers is holding onto the ball. Like it was atrocious the last time these two teams played against each other. And so if you're going to finish with a 20 % pressure rate again, I don't care that his time to throw is like 2.35 seconds. Like we need a better performance here from the Steelers up front than we got in the last time these two teams played against each other.

36:04Let's talk about the other side of the ball when the Ravens are on offense in this game. Derek, the Ravens offense and their running game last week, it was a sight to behold. Not entirely sure we can get the same version of that Ravens running game against the Steelers that we got last week against the Packers. We're not getting that game like that. The state of the Packers front four is or front five, whatever you want to call it. You can push them around in a way that I know the Steelers have had some tough games and run defense, especially early on in the year. They're better than that. Like Keanu Benton's playing a little bit better.

36:37Derek Harmon's now in the lineup. Cam Hayward still got some stuff like it's just like they are better up front. T.J. Watts can be back. That just make plays. We'll talk about that. Like it's yeah. High Smith also like incredibly good. Like they they will be better up front, even if you can get the linebackers with some movement. but they're not going to be able to move people. I think the way that they did last week, I still like the best version of this Ravens offense. Even when Lamar has been an MVP candidate is when they can run the hell out of the ball, especially with Derek Henry and you can get some of these explosives.

37:08If Lamar is coming off of his illness, still kind of been banged up this year. Like that still might be something you really do need to tap into in this game. I don't think we're going to see the same sort of performance from the Ravens running game that we did against the Packers last week. I still think if I were the Ravens, I want to run the ball 40 times in this game. I want to control the game that way. If you go back and you watch the first match between these two teams, the Ravens finished with a 42-ish percent rushing success rate, I think, per next-gen. So nothing overwhelming. But most of their negative runs came in one specific situation.

37:43It's when they were leaving TJ Watt unblocked on the backside of some of these under-center runs and trying to hold him with either like jet action that way or some sort of slice or some sort of boot. We have so much evidence that that doesn't work against this team. Like they just don't care. I mean, I've talked to coaches in the past where they told me we just don't run boots against the Steelers. Like we just won't leave them unblocked because they don't account for the booting quarterback or any sort of motion back that way. And if you look at what the Ravens were doing later into the game, there were two things that really jumped out to me from a run game perspective that I think we're tapping into here.

38:23They were consistently accounting for that backside edge in one way or another, whether it's Ricard out of like an I formation look slicing back across and cutting that guy, or they're sending somebody sifting across that way. They were leaving those guys unblocked way less often in the second half of that game. And it was leading to fewer negative runs. And the other thing that if I'm the Ravens in this game, the only time I'm leaving those guys unblocked is if I am using Lamar Jackson in the run game. This game specifically feels like the week where if you think he is healthy enough, I'm not saying you have to run them a dozen times, but I think running him five or six times and trying to get seven, eight yards every single time you do, it worked in the second half against the Steelers last game.

39:04And I think it's something you should try to tap into in this game, because I think this is the team to do it against. the first Pittsburgh game was I think he was he was better against the Bills all the way back in the season opener but the Pittsburgh game was one of Lamar's best performances as a runner this entire season and leave it all out there man there's no tomorrow if you don't win exactly and I get it he's been banged up but if he's healthy enough to play then let's let's get that moving a little bit the other element of the first matchup that I thought is was notable and I was very impressed, honestly, with what the Steelers did.

39:40I thought their third down plan in that game was varied and gave the Ravens a ton of problems. Like if you look at it individually, possession by possession, you have like a weird cover two variation where you're bringing Brandon Echols off the edge that ends in a sack in the first quarter on the next possession. They drop eight on third down and Lamar has to pull it down and scramble. They had another rep of cover two in the second quarter when they're showing man beforehand, because there's emotion. That's the play where Lamar throws the pick to Pierre. They had a couple of snaps of cover zero when it didn't necessarily seem like it was going to be cover zero pre-snap.

40:15I thought that it was a varied layered game plan for them whenever the Ravens were in like pure drop back situations. And Derek, it just brings me back to the frustration I have with the Steelers offense so often where it's like when they do this stuff and they make it hard on you, they are talented enough to give even good offenses trouble. And we saw a lot of that in the last game between these two teams. and they often do that against Lamar Jackson like they they have typically played him very well even in some of his best MVP seasons like I think one of his worst games last year was when they played the Steelers and they did a good job of like squeezing every seam route that the Ravens tried to throw which that was one of their best balls for the entire season is throwing a lot of those seam balls and the Steelers just took it away like they have a very good sense of what Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense typically likes to do which I think kind of goes back to your point like run the ball 40 times because if you're running then you're just not getting into those scenarios where they can call some of this fun stuff on third down or even on some second and passes like if we can just try to control the ball keep them out of some of that stuff and not have to have because again they've done this even against the best and healthiest versions of Lamar if we're getting 85 percent of Lamar and they typically game plan against him it's like it sounds weird to say take the ball out of Lamar Jackson's hands as a passer because he's obviously incredible but this is like a weird scenario where that actually might kind of favor you in some ways And I think you don't have it doesn't have to be one or the other.

41:36I think the best way to kind of build on leaning on the run game in this game is using play action on early downs when you think they're going to be in some of those single high looks like get under center. They've done a lot, actually. They've been back. They've done a lot. And again, they had some explosives and some chunks when they did it the last time these two teams played. And so I want to run the ball consistently. I want to find some try to find some chunks over the middle of the field off play action. And I want that to be the foundation of my game plan against this version of the Steelers.

42:03So we avoid some of those third and sevens where they can throw some of that funkier shit at you, especially with Echols and Pierre back in the lineup in the secondary being closer to full strength. Let's get to our third game here with the most stakes in week 18. That is the Panthers at the Buccaneers. The Bucs are two and a half point favorites in this game at home. Dave, why is Panthers Bucs one of the games of the week in week 18? in a much more dejected tone of voice somebody has to win the nfc south like that's because you're the bucks guys this is why it's dejected it's dejected because that's how much worse the nfc south is than the afc north it's just like it's it's like not even has to just somebody's going to win this division and it might not even happen on saturday it might happen 24 hours after this game takes place.

42:55It's so perfect. It is just so perfect that the Bucks could win this game and the Panthers could still win the NFC South. If the States beat the Falcons beat the Saints like that, it's just too, too perfect. You know how like, uh, like on selection Sunday in college basketball, the teams like sit around the TV and wait to see if they get called. Like if the Bucks win this game, you could be in a situation where like the Bucks and Panthers are at the facility watching Falcons Saints in their film room, waiting to find out if they're a playoff team. I want to just be clear about the dour vibes surrounding this game and the fact that somebody has to win it.

43:35For the Bucs, I think that's justified. Based on what the last seasons have felt like, based on what the first six weeks of this season felt like, the Bucs are, right now, I think you could make a serious argument that they're the most depressing team in the NFL. Like the Chiefs, we've had enough time to live with it, right? the fact that Patrick Mahomes isn't hurt and the Chiefs are out of the playoffs, the Bucs week to week right now are incredibly depressing. And if they somehow stumble into the NFC South title, I don't think anybody's going to be throwing a parade. I think the Panthers are in a different enough situation where there is something worth celebrating.

44:10If this team gets in, even if it is as a nine and eight division champion, considering what the last, I don't know how many years of Panthers football have looked like. And to me, how much this season represents a significant step forward for them as a franchise. I don't want all of the gray clouds following the Bucs around right now to diminish what would be, in my opinion, an actual accomplishment for the Panthers. I 100 percent agree like this, save for Bryce Young, you know, maybe taking that step into being a really, really good quarterback. Everything else you could have wanted as a Panthers fan or supporter or whatever has come to fruition.

44:48Like you paid for the defense to go from historically bad to like not great, but functional. They have gotten that. And I think especially as we've gotten a little bit closer to the season, like guys like Nick Scorton kind of taking a step as a young player. That's been really exciting. Your top 10 pick is awesome. Tedaro McMillan, like he's incredible. Your offensive line and run game. I think you sold this idea that like we could build the offense off of that. I think that has mostly come true, even with a lot of the injuries that they've had. That's the most impressive part to me is the fact that they've been able to run the ball so consistently as they've cycled in and out of all of these different offensive line combinations.

45:20There's a lot to be proud of with that. And to continue our season long theme with the Panthers, the absolute worst they could be drafting is like 15, you know, and like they might, they might pick 19, 20. Who knows like this? You're right. It's I'm glad we're saying this because like they've, they've had some very unflattering moments. and this is a bad division, but they could finish this season with a winning record. They beat the Packers. They beat the Rams. And I'll keep saying it. Like they were a major pain in the ass for the Seahawks for like two and a half quarters. It's like they are not a bad football team, even if this is a bad division.

46:01There was a chart. I think it was Ian Hart. It's put it out today. And it was just Bryce Young's EPA per drop back by game for every start of his career. And it was a bar graph going up for positive and down for negative. And it's just like an equal split where half the games are just huge bars going up and half the games are huge bars going down. And my response in looking to that is it's not surprising, but it's also one of those, like, what am I supposed to do with this? Like, just like, what am I supposed to do with this is kind of where I land on him. And I think that colors what you think about the Panthers moving forward.

46:34Like what the next step of this looks like, that's something that you have to reckon with. But this step specifically, I think has looked pretty darn good in a lot of ways. If you're a Panthers fan. All right, let's talk about that side of the ball first. When the Panthers have the ball in this game, Derek, the number one thing you were looking for when the Panthers offense is on the field against the Bucs. I mean, so there are a couple of things. When I watched this game, I watched the week 16 Bucs game that they just played pretty recently before we got onto here. the Tampa Bay Bucks corners in coverage honestly played a pretty phenomenal game like I thought that they played really good like Jamel Dean played really good Jacob Parrish played really good really other than Ted Arroa McMillan beating Jamel Dean and him kind of falling asleep in the end zone on that one go ball right before the half they played a really shut down game and I thought that they're probably going to need to do that again to win this game because I think you know the Panthers receiving core they've had Ted Arroa McMillan for the entire year but But otherwise, like they finally have Jalen Coker back in the lineup, which he was in this game.

47:36So those corners really do need to shut them down. And I really think outside of a couple of big games against teams like the Falcons, like Bryce Young has really struggled to throw like tight windows and stuff. And for a lot of this season, and there was actually one play that I think this is illustrates what frustrates me the most about Bryce Young. And I think where I can get stuck with him, if he's going to be a player that doesn't have the best arm, he's not the biggest. isn't the best like you know athlete all that sort of stuff he needs to be on time and anticipate all the time and he flashes that but there was a throw with 43 seconds left in the second quarter and they've got just one of those like 10 12 yard outbreakers to the right hand side at the sticks it's Xavier Leggett he gets to the top of his drop and the good quarterbacks Jordan Loves Matthew Stafford even like Sam Darnold when he's hot they get to the top of the drop back foot hoods you throw it and those are guys with really good arms and they let that rip he kind of like sits there and bounces twice, throws it late.

48:32Xavier Leggett is way too close to the sideline ball sales. It's like, you just can't do that if you're going to be the type of quarterback that he is. I know this isn't the point, but I just love Derek going to Jordan Love first there. I know. Jordan Love was the best possible example of a good quarterback. It's hilarious. That first matchup, there are two elements of the Panthers offense in that game against the Bucs defense that stick with me. One, the Bucks play just a crazy amount of cover two in that game. Some of that is driven by the fact that the Panthers had a long two minute drive. And so there were probably like five or six cover two snaps on that drive specifically.

49:12But even considering that it was 40 % cover two for the Panther for the Bucks defense in that game. And Bryce Young was happy to take a lot of the underneath completions that they were giving him. And so I wonder how much of that we see carry over because that's not forcing those tight window throws that you were talking about, Derek. And so that's one specific part of that last game where I'm like, I just can't see that happening again necessarily. And that's, that's a really good shout too. Cause when you watch that game, typically when we think of Tampa too, you have the middle linebacker, the pole runner, he'll run with whoever that, that scene player is.

49:46He'll try to squeeze that window, some teams and, and whatever, maybe it's a game plan thing. Maybe some teams just like it instead of having him run all the way up, they'll just trust that the deep safety can end up squeezing it late. And then they'll just ask that pole runner to like turn back and look for any dig routes coming behind him. I think that is the right way to play it against Bryce Young because he'll throw a lot of those dig routes coming back. He hit a couple in this game. He hit one to Tedaro and McMillan that I can remember, but he won't throw a lot of those seam routes. And so them like falling off of it and trying to go and squeeze those other windows with some of this Tampa two stuff, I think does make sense again for this matchup, even if they got beat a couple of times the first time.

50:20The other element of the last matchup that I think is worth keeping in mind for this one. We talked about it in the moment, in the week 16 recap when the Panthers won this game. The Panthers won this game up front. Like they physically outplayed the Bucs up front on both sides of the ball. And that includes the offensive line against the Bucs defensive line. The Bucs have this reputation as this really good run defense. And the Panthers kind of took it to them the last time these two teams played. And you look at it, I don't know if he's gonna play, but Robert Hunt is potentially, like he's back at practice for the Panthers.

50:52And we've talked about it all year where this is an offensive line that can push you around. And that was before Cade Mays was even playing center and giving them more physicality at center than they have with Austin Corbett. If you get Robert Hunt back in this game and you're going your five across with Iki Aquanu, Damian Lewis, Cade Mays, Robert Hunt, and Taylor Moten, plus what the tight ends are giving you in the run game, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised again if the Bucs were able to control this ball and kind of bully, control this game and kind of bully ball the Bucs up front again.

51:26The all the numbers for the season are going to tell you that the Bucs are a top five, top 10 run defense. And I'm here to tell you it's hooey right now. Go, go look at this. I mean, the last last two weeks, they've allowed a rushing success rate up near 50 % against the Panthers. You just said the Panthers bullied them. The Dolphins bullied them last week in the month of December. their explosive run rate is 16%, which is more than double what it was for the months of like for the three months before the last four games, they were allowing an explosive 7.7 % in the first 12, 13 weeks of the season.

52:07And it's just, it's exploded here over the last month. And that's teams like the saints doing it. Obviously the dolphins, the Panthers, I expect the Panthers to be able to run the ball and there's more to it than this, but if I'm trying to talk myself into Carolina winning a football game, it starts with that. Absolutely. And if we want to go to the other side of the ball, I think that to me was the most surprising, or maybe one of the most impactful elements of the last matchup between these two teams is the Panthers offensive line winning a game physically is not surprising. That's the way this team is built.

52:40But Derek, again, we talked about it in the moment, the Panthers defensive line, you know, Nick Scorton, I think his performance jumps out, but even when you were getting from the linebackers, some of those other guys in the defensive front they out physical the bucks offensive line in the bucks run game the last time these two teams played and i wouldn't necessarily be surprised that that happens again and if it does if the panthers are going to win this game up front on both sides of the ball why do we why why do we have any feelings about the bucks being able to win this game which is a tough look because i know we just i just said that like the panthers paid a billion dollars to go from historically bad to whatever they are now the front still isn't that good like Like I like Nick Scorton and the linebackers do play physically every now and then.

53:19And you still got Derek Brown, but like it's still not a good front. If you are the Bucs and you are who you think your identity should be or you can run the ball and you can move people a little bit. This should be a game that you can handle. But like you said, the last time they really did not. And like Nick Scorton continues to be a really, really impressive player for them. And then I do think that their linebackers are playing better now than they played for the first two or three months of the season. And so this to me comes down to a little bit of like. It's very rare that I want to pick a game kind of based on just like vibes or what I feel the give a shit factor might be.

53:51But the Panthers are just like they have been so good all year about making every game hard for the other team that they're playing against. And that doesn't always result to wins, but they are going to make you earn it. I just feel like in a spot with the Bucks where I'm just like it just I don't know if they're really at 100 percent in that in that meter right now. It brings me back to the conversation we had, the point we made to start this conversation. I think this game matters more to Carolina than it does to the Bucs. And at a certain point, I think that's worth keeping in mind when you're considering how it's going to go.

54:22It is, it's, I've been fighting against this all week where like the vibes, the vibes just point you toward Carolina so hard in this game, but it is a week to week league. And these teams just played 13 days ago or whatever it is. And my radar is up that that can mean some wonky stuff. And like Tristan worse is not a hundred percent healthy, but it sounds like he's at least going to give it a shot on Saturday. You still have talent. I mean, I'm I'm past the point of like waiting for Britt Baker to break back out, but crazier shit has happened. Right. I guess that's the problem with, I have with the bucks right now is that we're just going to keep sitting here and I'm just going to keep muttering to myself.

55:05Well, they still have talent. They still have talent. Like how long are we going to keep doing that? I get it. Baker. I, I just, I wanted to know this for my own curiosity. Cause I'm a Baker guy. Baker, uh, from weeks one to nine had 10 completions of more than 20 air yards for 418 yards and seven touchdowns. And since then, he's got five completions for 175 yards with no touchdowns. Like the explosive element of this Bucs passing game is just not there anymore. And I've said it before. I have to assume something's bugging Baker. And obviously, you've had receivers in and out of the lineup. But at this rate, why do you trust it to correct itself now on a short week?

55:55And on top of that, the Panthers play 85 % zone, which is the most in the league. Baker has been very, very mid against zone with eight picks going against zone coverage over the course of the year. I just crazier stuff has happened, but I can't say I'm optimistic. We've seen him get fooled or him look a little bit uncomfortable against some of those disguise coverages and just like him not seeing it that well recently. And the Panthers are the sort of team where they play a lot of cover three, like, but they do it a lot out of a lot of too high shells where you don't know exactly what's coming and so you are going to get some changing pictures when you play against the Panthers defense and I think you're going to get some wonky stuff too like they're they set a lot of simulated pressures the last time these two teams played against each other like it the Panthers defense I think Derek said exactly right they're not a super talented unit their four man pass rush is still actively very bad but they play hard and they are going to make it hard on you.

56:51And listen, it would surprise me if the bucks who are more talented team win this game by seven points. No, but the way that the last few weeks have felt and the way that this thing has been trending, it's just hard not to like Carolina to win this thing. And that's kind of where I sit with it. All right, we're going to take one more quick break and then come back with a quick breakdown of some of the other seating considerations this week. And then just some of the stats and incentives, things to keep in mind when we get into week 18.

57:21we can run through this pretty quick in the afc all of the playoff teams are just massive favorites in this game broncos are 12 and a half point favorites against the chargers with justin herbert sitting patriots 11 and a half over the dolphins the jags are 12 and a half point favorites over the titans the texans are double digit favorites over the colts and the bills are seven point favorites against the jets i think that's partially because it sounds like josh allen is not going to play in this game so if you assumed shock the wild card round will be the Broncos getting the buy. The Patriots is the two seed against the Chargers as the seven seed.

57:51The Jags is the three seed against the Bills is the six seed and the AFC North winner against the five seed Texans. If the Bills lose, they would be the seven seed and the Chargers would get the six seed. I assume that part of the thinking with Josh Allen sitting is that the difference between the six and the seven is not worth a week of rest for a Josh Allen who is banged up, which I completely understand if you are Sean McDermott and the Bills. I think that that makes perfect sense because if they get the seven you would most likely end up playing the patriots and i don't want to do the like are the patriots better than the jacks i don't really think that really matters it's the point of like you've seen them twice so i think you probably are pretty familiar with that matchup and it's not really going to come up on you and scare you if you have to play them again my only thought here is i just my brain is screaming at me there's no way it can all be chalk and maybe this is a maybe this is a situation where it's going to be the jaguars don't do this.

58:45I crazier things have crazier things have happened. I don't know. I mean, maybe this is the week where, where this, where it's okay to take chalk because teams are going to be sitting meaningful players, but yeah, man, I mean, Titans have been playing better football. Jags are the Jags. I just, I got to imagine something goofy is going to happen. I don't know if that means the Jags are going to give up the division, but I've got my eye out for it. if the Jags lose and the Texans win the Texans win the AFC South correct okay so like I mean specifically god that'd be horrific I did joke when I made the point that the Jack in like week nine when I was or week maybe 11 or whatever it was when I was like hey the Jacks can win the division I did make the point that they will get here and then potentially lose it to the Titans that is the one place where I've got my eye out where like I yeah like whatever happens with the the Broncos and Patriots, whatever.

59:42And the chargers aren't playing Herbert. So that probably won't be very interesting. Like I tried to talk myself into the chiefs Broncos game being interesting last year and it was over like 30 seconds in, but the AFC South games, I mean, the Houston, the Texans played with their food against the Raiders two weeks ago and the Jags have done Jags things in the past. I, they played with their food against the Raiders six weeks ago or whenever that game happened. I'm not at the point where I trust the Jags even still. So those are the games that I kind of have, I'm kind of looking sideways at. NFC playoff situations, NFC seeding situations.

1:00:21The Seahawks Niners game obviously is for the number one seed. If the Seahawks win and the Rams win, the Rams are the five and the Niners are the six. If the Seahawks win and the Rams lose, the Niners are the five and the Rams are the six. It does sound like, based on what McVay said after that game on Monday, the Rams are going to play guys. we'll see what he actually does with that and this is a coach who famously does not play anybody when he doesn't need to and didn't last year when it was only a matter of playoff seating on the line so that's something worth keeping in mind if the Niners win the Seahawks are the five seed and the Rams are the six seed regardless of what happens in Rams Cardinals other seating stuff to keep in mind for the NFC the Bears will lock up the two seed with a win over the Lions or an Eagles loss the Eagles have announced that they are not playing a lot of their starters, including Jalen hurts.

1:01:06So it does seem like the bears potentially are trending to the two seat. Even if they do not beat the lions, it sounds like the bears are going to play guys. I, my vote here, like who the burden is like a, maybe he can play sort of guy. I'm anybody that's like on the line. If I'm the bears coaching staff, I don't think it's worth it. Like I'm giving those guys one week before we get to the playoffs, rather than doing everything I can to win this game and get the two seed. especially knowing that the Eagles are probably not going to be playing that hard especially and I'm not trying to suggest the Bears should be afraid of the Packers but that's who's waiting for you if you get the two and so I mean I really selfishly want to see Bears Packers three but that would be the most fun way of doing it I mean it's listen we can talk about when we get there I I haven't like come to terms with the emotional realities of that game still processing this hold on hold on there's a world there's a pretty easy world right where we get the bears as the three and like the rams as the six is that correct yes i i would like to see caleb williams and matthew stafford throwing flamethrowers for 60 minutes in a playoff game i think that would be really fun i think i'd rather play this version of the packers than this version of the rams even you would rather play the pack i'm saying as a neutral viewer i want that's the game that I want to watch I don't I don't care about your entertainment value at this point we have real things at stake here it's gonna be really funny like it's I'm sitting here thinking like yeah the Bears are gonna play the Packers because the Eagles aren't playing their starters but like Tanner McKee could beat the January 4th Washington commanders like that is to the Giants again I think the Bears should try to win the game I just think that you should be smart about how hard you're trying to win the game when it comes to players who probably need a little bit of rest before you play the game that actually matters next week.

1:02:58Few stats and incentives things to keep in mind for week 18. We've got a fun, a few fun ones. Bijan needs 255 scrimmage yards to finish first all time in a single season for yards from scrimmage. That's, that's a crazy stat. Obviously this, the 18 game season affects some of this stuff. And I, I think that we have to keep that in mind as we discuss any of these, but that's worth mentioning. 255 scrimmage yards. I'll say this. I was not on the Monday night recap. I was playing Bijan in my fantasy championship. And that's why I missed it. I was watching with all the guys from my league. What a terrifying player to play against when you're in that sort of situation.

1:03:38So he rips off the first one, right? And in that moment, I was up by so much that the first one I was like, all right, now this becomes like mildly interesting that there was a second play in that game where he almost rips off like another 70 yard touchdown run. my heart was in my like it fell out of my body like it was he was a terrifying player to play against or and what i would have imagined and you tell me this as someone again watching him playing against him how many times does it look like he's going to get hit in the backfield and you're like cool bad run for them and then he gains yards and he gets points off you're like what every time every time he touched the ball i was holding my breath like every single time like that is the type of player that we are talking about here so it's not surprising that he's within range of that.

1:04:22Why I think that's actually kind of fun. He's in range of that. And I don't think he's going to be like a top two finisher for offensive player of the year. The two guys that are with Puka and JSN Puka needs 70 yards to catch JSN for the receiving title. Obviously JSN is going to be playing hard in this game. And so it's possible that JSN has a monster game too, but we've talked all year about JSN having this like historically great season as a receiver. And there is a chance that Puka who played one fewer games than JSN did finishes with more receiving yards this season than JSN. And keep in mind that Christian McCaffrey is like, he is nipping at everybody's heels in this conversation.

1:05:02We talked about this on the Monday recap show where I don't have his stats in front of me, but he's, I mean, he's up over 2000 scrimmage yards already. Is he not? He CMC had the scrimmage yard lead until B. John had that game. Yeah. I mean, you're talking about a guy that's going to finish with like 2 ,100, 2 ,200 scrimmage yards and 15 plus touchdowns. Like if the Niners get the one seed and McCaffrey has a great game, helping them get it, he could steal offensive player of the year. That's not, that's not crazy. Even though it sounds crazy based on what we were talking about halfway through the season.

1:05:34It's going to be a fun conversation next week when we do the awards. Cause I think that is, that's become a very intriguing race. Few other just statistical milestones to keep in mind. Caleb needs 270 passing yards for the Bears. First 4 ,000 yard passing season ever. I'm fine with them trying to juice it. I'm fine with them just trying to get it for him. Like I, again, it's 18 games at this point. It could be a 20 game season. And to me, it does not diminish the fact that they would have their first 4 ,000 yard passer. So I am all for that. Rico Dowdle needs seven scrimmage yards for a million bucks.

1:06:09Think he's probably going to get that hopefully. and he needs one more touchdown for an extra 250k and look i know all these guys make a ton of money but rico's an undrafted free agent i think his career earnings are like seven million dollars which like i know that that's a lot of money but guess what adding 1.2 million to that that's huge could you imagine making one seventh of your career earnings in one day in one snap yes if He gets an eight yard touchdown. He gets it in one snap. My career earnings are not$7 million. I would be happy to make one seventh of my career earnings in one day. I'll tell you that right now.

1:06:50Bradley Chubb. This is my favorite one. He would hit a$5 million incentive this week, but he needs the dolphins to finish in the top 20 in scoring defense to activate them. The dolphins are currently 21st in scoring defense at 24.1 points per game. The Falcons are at 24 points a game. So no one in America is rooting harder for Tyler Shuck this week than Bradley Chubb. Oh, and who do the who do the Dolphins play this week? Who do they have to stop from scoring? The MVP of the league potentially. Yes. Seems tough. Seems tough. Speaking of the Patriots, I love this one. I mean, Hunter Henry's already made a lot of money.

1:07:32Like he's made$500 ,000 with what he's already caught. but he's five catches away from a$250 ,000 incentive. And he's 10 catches away from like from another one. So like if he caught 10 balls on Sunday, he'd make half a million dollars, which like that's a lot of catches. Don't get me wrong. He's only got 55 on the year, but if his best buddy, Drake may is just funneling him the football, let's get goofy with it, buddy. Let's make me half a million dollars. Last one, Sam Darnold can make 2 million in incentives with three more passing touchdowns 150 passing yards and a 0.3 percentage point increase in completion percentage and 0.8 in quarterback rating that's not crazy i watched mikhail williams just did against the niners that's not crazy at all for him to get there he needs all what a day if if you hit that and get the one seat in the nfc who's got it better than you but it's not i mean when you say he needs all of those like if he has a massive game you're probably gonna yeah it's probably gonna get probably going to take up there.

1:08:35Last thing before we get out of here, quick wins pool update, because we talk about the other teams that have a lot at stake at stake this week. You guys have a shitload at stake this week in the wins pool. I am victorious. I'm 61 and 51. Thank you very much to the Seahawks and the Panthers for, for carrying me to this is the first year. I will not have lost the wins pool. I can't even tell you how excited I am to get to radio row every day, not wearing some weird, embarrassing shit. I'm so looking forward to it. You guys, different story. Dave, as we head into week 18, is 52 and 60. Derek is 60 or 50, 61 and one.

1:09:16So this thing is tight. It is a game and a half difference. And anything could happen in this week. Quick reminder, your team. It's so gross. Dave has the Ravens, the Lions, the Niners, the Bucks, the Vikings, the Titans and the Saints. Derek has the Chiefs, the Packers, the Bengals, the Texans, the Broncos, the Raiders, and the Jets. Think of the matchups that we are relying on in these games. Like Vikings-Packers, it's going to be... That's going to decide it. Vikings-Packers is huge. Who are the quarterbacks in this game? Desmond Ritter is playing for the Packers. That's right. oh my god Derek is deeply aware of who the quarterback for the Packers is right now all all of my Desmond Ritter stock from like four years ago is coming back to haunt me violently this is really bad I accepted defeat like a month ago because it was it was rough there before the Saints and the Titans started winning football games and so I had kind of made peace with being the loser and then Beller told us the standings and I was like holy shit I could still avoid having to wear a costume like this is incredible so now I'm like reinvested and I'm just gonna be heartbroken if I lose it really has been the saint mostly the saints but also a little bit the titans because we my good teams have more wins but my bad teams the Raiders and the Jets only have five on the season that your titans and saints have nine which that if that like evened out a little bit more like I would probably have like it's just the the Pete Carroll has ruined my life what would be so so fitting is if the bucks lost on saturday and that was the game that ultimately did it to the did it to dave because he has the box as one of his teams yeah well i don't think that would be great screwing me in week 18 is also pretty like for as much as i invested in them it's so true it's so true god i can't even tell you guys how excited i am to not have to give a shit about any of this i i i really need to give like dave cannellis and mike mcdonald to hug when this is all over.

1:11:22I have a team in both of the win and end games. And so I'm sorry to Steelers and Panthers fans. It's nothing personal, but I need Baltimore and Tampa in the playoffs. Clearly quick reminder, the punishment here, whoever loses has to dress as a super fan of the team. Most responsible for them being in this position for the, for Derek, it's probably the chiefs, right? Like we're going to send you as like the, What was the guy's name that got arrested for all the bank robberies? Oh, you can dress up like the wolf guy. Yeah. Yeah. Okay. That would be. Chiefsaholic. Yeah. See, for a lot of this season, I thought I was going to have to be like the Bangalorian or something.

1:12:02So, but it's, it's shifted. It would be funny if you were the Bangalorian, but I think the, something akin to the Chiefsaholic is good. And then for Dave, it's, it's probably the Ravens, but we could also make an argument that it's the Titans. I think for you, Dave, it might have to be the Titans. right i would if we're doing that then i can make the case that it's the raiders the two win raiders i don't know that's pretty bad i would go for either one but i think you i think you got to say the ravens for me because i took him first i took him first in the whole thing uh so eight and eight just uh ravens fans if you guys have any like famous fans that dress up that dress crazy for these games and you think should be the inspiration for dave if he does lose this please let us know and same goes for the chiefs even though i think that that's kind of a richer palette to draw from just because we've got the history there all right that is all we've got for the week 18 preview we will be back on sunday night with a week 18 recap sincerely looking forward to that for now appreciate you guys listening we'll talk to you soon

1:13:13Thank you.