Week 18 Recap: Seahawks and Broncos lock up top seeds, Panthers back into playoffs, and more

0:28Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. The can't the Carolina Panthers somehow losing a game and then winning in the NFC South, which, you know, I can't remember anything like that happening, but that's exactly what happened. So we dug into all of the implications in the NFC South race. After that, chatted a little bit about just the playoff schedule, the seedings. We know what they all look like. a first quick look at the schedule for next week. A lot of good ones on the slate. I'm already dreading the fact that I have to talk about Bears Packers and then watch Bears Packers and then immediately talk about it.

0:57That's just not going to be a good look for anybody. And then chatted a little bit about the draft order and the top 10 that has now come into full view with the season wrapped up. Let's dig into that with me, Derek Klassen, and Dave Hellman right now.

1:17Right before we started recording, Dave just started laughing. And I know that he was just going back and in his mind, replaying what we just saw over the last like half hour. I know that's why you're just sitting there shuckling. Yeah, because we got everything you could possibly want from the last game of the season, including the fact that that sucked. Like theoretically, thrilling finish. The football was horrible. Thrilling finish, bad football. the perfect game to wrap up what was the AFC North and this game of hot potato that the Steelers and Ravens have been playing. Like literally right there in the final four minutes of this game, it felt like neither team really wanted to win.

1:58I mean, it was thrilling theater and just pretty bad football. And it was very fun. Week 18 is so funny because the way that it's set up, obviously the Saturday games yesterday, both of them had huge implications for the way that things would go, sort of, because the Panthers lost and then still made the playoffs because the Falcons won, but they were the most important games before the Sunday night game. That's just the way the week 18 is programmed. And so even today, like when we're watching games, we're like shooting the shit more than we typically would. The games matter less, but then you get to Sunday night and everything is on the line.

2:29So the stakes of that game couldn't have been higher, but the quality of most of the game couldn't have been lower. But then at the same time, because of the way the fourth quarter went, I had as much fun as I possibly could have for the final 45 minutes. Oh, I was still extremely into it, especially for some of the six and two. The way, Dave, you had it perfect. I was talking before Tyler Loop had to make that kick because Isaiah likely caught the ball. I'm like, oh, they're in field orange. It should be easy. And I was like, the Aaron Rodgers presser after this is going to be must watch, incredible stuff.

2:58And Dave immediately turns to me and goes, Tyler Loop hasn't made that kick yet. And there we are. What did I say? All the way back in August, we talked about like the X factor for the Ravens was they're breaking in a rookie kicker. Now, I thought he might break their hearts in a conference championship game and not a play-in to be the four seed in a deeply disappointing season, but it sort of came to fruition. Yeah, the X factor shouldn't have been to win a gross game, to win the AFC North in a down year. And I think the Ravens obviously had a chance to win that game. They're in a position to win that game.

3:33I think they got outplayed over the course of this game, and I'm not sure they deserve to win that game. I feel like the way it ended was a just ending considering how the game went down to down. Don't you feel like that would have been true either way? No, I think the Steelers outplayed. Even with some of the Steelers' breakdowns inside the final six, eight minutes of the game. Yeah, I think for a majority of this game, the Steelers outplayed the Ravens in this game. The breakdown on the last, say, Flowers touchdown, that's something that can happen. Ravens are in a very funky formation. It's third and two.

4:06You're in four down territory. And so running the ball on that play on that third and two makes total sense. They're in like a five by zero look with the tight with Ronnie Stanley flipped and unbalanced formation. So you're creating a lot of confusion there. I understand how that play happens. The Zay Flowers touchdown before that. That's just Lamar Jackson being a superhero. Yeah, I mean, that's one of many moments in this game. And we were talking about it in real time. The second to last Zay Flowers touchdown, Alex Highsmith is completely unblocked off the left side and Daniel Falele doesn't block anybody at right guard.

4:41It requires Lamar Jackson to make a fantastic play. If you look at the quality of the two teams over the, how many plays did we get today? There were 121 plays in this, yeah, 121 plays in this game. The Steelers were better for a majority of those plays, but you have the one Lamar Jackson superhero play, and then you have one play where by design, they get that seconds, eight flowers touchdown. For the most part, I thought the Steelers played harder. I thought that their defense significantly outplayed the Ravens offense. And I felt like if they had lost this game, it would have been some weird combination of not having any receivers and Aaron Rodgers's helmet breaking.

5:19So they couldn't call any timeouts. Plus Chris Boswell, weirdly unraveling. And the most important moments of the season. Well, I guess. And that would be my point is just in crunch time. And you make valid points about the nature of those touchdowns, but you just give up two ridiculously explosive touchdowns and you miss a PAT. I just I wouldn't have been crying very hard for the Steelers had they lost this game. I want to be clear about that. That's not what I'm saying. I don't think the Steelers played a majestic game. I think the Ravens game was grosser. I think that's fair, especially relative to, and isn't this the story of the Ravens season, or at least one of them, is like how good it can look in spurts, particularly like the opening possession of this game.

6:01And I know, yeah, I know, but I just, it can come so close to looking like the Ravens we get used to, and then it just peters out and fizzles away. And that is what's so frustrating to me is that the down to down, like they have gotten the explosive. We've talked about this before like they were a really good explosive run team for a lot of this season they just the down-to-down was not very good and I know that they were decent today but like this was a team that for the most part has subsisted only on explosive plays and that was definitely true today and you mean you mentioned a couple of the the Zay Flowers plays the Tez Walker touchdown to open is just like they get him in cover zero and Tez Walker who even though he can't do a whole lot of things necessarily can run very fast Jalen Ramsey tries to cut a route that he thinks is going to be a little bit shorter.

6:43Tez Walker takes it high. And that's a touchdown. It's like those three plays, the big catch by Isaiah Likely at the end, and then the one Derrick Henry 40-yard run. Like, other than that, the Ravens really did not move the ball all that consistently in this game. They absolutely didn't. They finished with 137 rushing yards, but a huge chunk of that is the first run for Derrick Henry. The Ravens, per next gen, had a 29 % rushing success rate in this game. I thought that the Steelers front, in particular, did some ass-kicking in this game. And even part of that Derrick Henry run, it got called back.

7:12It got called back. Because of the weird blindside block. I mean, you could, any member of the Steelers front deserves their flowers in this game. I thought that Cam Hayward was an absolute monster all over the place throughout this game. TJ Watt gets the huge interception on the tipped ball. Alex Highsmith had multiple really nice moments against the run. Keanu Benton absolutely dumps Tyler Linderbaum on one of the first drives of the game. And then I thought one of the coolest things the Steelers did schematically in this game, with TJ Watt back, they were using Nick Herbig really consistently as like a spinner blitzer in the middle and then having him just fire down one of the A-gaps and they were doing a bunch of stuff off of it.

7:53That third and seven play where Lamar has to, desperation, flip it out of bounds on the second to last play offensively for the Ravens of the whole game, that's a play where they bring Herbig and then they drop Highsmith and Watt off of the edges. And so they're only bringing four and multiple different times, Herbig crushing the middle of the pocket as a blitzer, that worked out really well for the Ravens. I just thought that, again, down to down, I thought that the Ravens, the Steelers defense took it to the Ravens offense in this game. And they got Lamar on a sack on that same exact type of pressure look earlier in the game where they, and I think they did a really good job too.

8:29One of, you know, when you drop both of the edges and then bring a lot of A-gap players, you do kind of mess with the protection that way. And then I thought what they did interesting with the two blitzing inside players was one was a typical linebacker. I think it was Patrick Queen and the other is Herbig, but they bring Queen first so that the offensive lineman is going to pick him up and you leave the back to take Nick Herbig, which there aren't really a whole lot of pass protecting backs who are going to be able to handle a typical edge player like that. And so them just messing with a lot of their pass protection rules for a lot of this game was, I think, the most impressive thing that the Steelers did on this end.

9:00Because in covers, they honestly played a lot of man. Like it wasn't that like crazy a lot of what they were doing on the back end. And it was really what up front I thought was really, really impressive. It's not that weird that Cameron Hayward would be a useful player at age 36. He's a unicorn. To like take over a game. And that's what he did. He was phenomenal all season. And he got big up a little bit in this game, actually. Yes. Because of the, on the Zayplow, the blockback thing. Yeah. I thought that on offense for the Steelers, obviously you really notice Kyle Hamilton going out of the game and some of the biggest moments of the game.

9:30And then the Steelers offense, especially without Washington and Metcalf, It is what it is. Like, it's gross. Like, the amount of flat routes and checkdowns and swing screens and all of that that comprise most of the offense, it's not fun to watch. And I'm not sure how viable it is against the Texans next week. I think that could be like a snuff out sort of game. But the moments that they had down the field, they hit two of them almost immediately on the sequence after Gilman and Hamilton run into each other. And then in one of the biggest moments of the game, they hit Friermuth running up the seam.

10:04It's cover two. Our Darius Washington is playing dime linebacker on that play because Kyle Hamilton is hurt. They hit him with a little double move and Rogers is able to push down the field. And then the game winning touchdown, which ended up becoming a game winning touchdown after the missed field goal. It's another double move where they're picking on Chidobe Awuzie. So the Ravens are banged up in the secondary, but that's not an excuse. You're playing against a team with, if you combine all of them, like 1.2 viable NFL receivers, like the secondary injuries are not enough of an excuse for the Ravens to like wave away.

10:37Their secondary is still better. Exactly. Like on a player to player basis. Add the Friar Muth double move down the seam to my playlist of things I'll cherish about this Aaron Rodgers season. Like it definitely largely has not been enjoyable, but I could probably get to like a dozen moments where I was like, hell yeah, A-Rodge, there he is. And that, that, that was one of them from this game. here's my kind of final parting shot with this with this game and the way that it unfolded I said this to you guys at some point in like the third quarter watching the Steelers take it to the Ravens in so many aspects of this game mentality physicality all this stuff it reminded me a little bit of what the Ravens did to the Steelers in the back half of seasons over the last couple of years where you're watching the Ravens just bring it to an entirely different level with everything on the line.

11:35And in those moments, I'm left thinking, what is the point of the Mike Tomlin era? If this is what you are going to be in the biggest games of the season, if you were just going to get walked over in the biggest games of the season. And that's kind of how I feel today about the John Harbaugh era. What is this? Like, if this is what you're going to look like with your season on the line against a division rival? What are we doing here and what is this supposed to be? And that might be harsh considering how good the Ravens have been over the last couple of years, but we've been sitting here for how long saying, okay, when are the Ravens going to turn it on?

12:09When are the Ravens going to turn it on? There were people this week who were responding to our Ravens conversation and being like, well, you know, you can't count the Ravens out. If they make it, they could go on a run. That never happened. That version of the Ravens we've come to expect and we think is possible. That never happened. And you watch the way they play tonight and you watch how flat they were for a good majority of this game with their lives on the line. And I think this is the sort of thing where you got to take a long look in the mirror about what you are as a franchise after the way that tonight went.

12:40And I think it's different than a lot of their playoff losses for two reasons. Absolutely. Like one. Well, yeah, they're they're a mid team. They finish with a losing record. Exactly. Like when you get to the divisional or you're losing these games in the conference championship whatever it is it's like you can at least live with like okay we made it we lost to a really really good team the other thing is like in a lot of those games they actually did feel like the better team or at least like really did feel like they could have won a lot of those games and then it's one silly mistake here it's one silly mistake there this game from top to bottom like you were saying they were the worst team and again they hit a couple of their explosive plays had a couple of nice moments but from start to finish they were the worst team tonight that is usually not how this unfolds and Again, if you're going to do that in a game where you now finish the season eight and nine and you were fighting for a like win the division by default type of title, it's a very different feeling than we've had with these Ravens losses the last three or so years.

13:29If you want to pretend that this is or if you want to come to the conclusion that this is an aberration, this game, this season, that it's a small dip and it is a speed bump on the way to where the Ravens want to go, I'm willing to hear that argument. You need to come to a conclusion about why that aberration happened. Like what caused this and what are you going to do to make sure that doesn't happen again? I'm not saying you have to fire anybody, but I think that there needs to be some soul searching if you were in the Baltimore Ravens organization after the way that this all just unfolded. It should be genuinely uncomfortable in that building, regardless whether what they do with John Harbaugh or not or any other members of the staff.

14:10But and yeah, like it is. I think you should hold them to a higher standard because they've been so good. Because again, Lamar has been healthy enough this season. I know he missed some time, but he's been healthy enough this season. And given the division you were in, you had enough to get it there and to miss the playoffs in a year where Lamar Jackson is theoretically, at least in his prime is it's tough. That's unforgivable feels harsh because I don't think the Ravens are going to fire John Harbaugh, but I would be I would be so, so pissed off. It's the first time I've come to the end of the season because even when they've lost in previous years, there have been different versions of the Ravens.

14:52You and I have talked about this. When they lost at the end of the 2023 season and they lose that game to the Chiefs, that to me was like the first version of this newer Lamar Jackson with Todd Monken where I felt like the offense was equipped for them to deal with the ways that teams would approach them in the playoffs. He wasn't quite good enough against the Blitz and they ultimately fell short against the team that won the Super Bowl. Last year, they have two big mistakes on offense, but otherwise feel like the sort of team that can accomplish what they want to. This does not feel like that.

15:25This is the first time where I think that at the end of the season, they have taken a marked step back as a team. Even if the end of these other seasons were disappointing, this feels like real regression for the first time. Yeah, those seasons felt just like unlucky or whatever you want to say about it. Like, you know, tough game. Somebody has to win. And the Ravens consistently did not win those games. But again, this does feel like the first time they've taken a step back in a while. And I will say, I think we've seen moments both from John Harbaugh with and without Lamar Jackson where his teams have taken a little bit of a step back.

15:58And then the next year, they're really good again. Or the year after that, they're really good again. And I think we've seen that from Lamar when he's had these years when he's been banged up. I think like 2020, it was either 2020 or 2021. He was a little bit banged up. and then right after that comes back and he's incredible again. I think it was both, wasn't it? I think so, yeah. Like he had that little stretch where it was like, man, is this, you know, some of his play style already getting him and then he runs off and wins two MVPs. So I have enough faith in this organization that they've proven they can bounce back before.

16:24But this really does feel like this is one of the lowest lows that you've had to bounce back from in quite a long time. On the Steelers' front, I mean, I just don't know what to make of them. Like I think that it almost is like the inverse of what we're talking about now. The fact that Tomlin can get them up for a game like this and the fact that they did play that well with everything on the line, I do think that they deserve a lot of credit for it. I don't think they're scary when we get to the playoffs. I just don't really. Maybe that'll come back to bite me because the Texans' offense is so vulnerable.

16:52I was about to say. They can beat a Texans team. It's just, it's early. There's no reason to get ahead of ourselves. It's just hard for me to imagine this offense doing much against the Texans' defense next week. I know we're going to spend a lot of time talking about that, but it's just hard for me to imagine. I don't think there are many teams that they could have drawn where you would feel good about it. Maybe the Chargers just because they're so beat up. But I feel like, I feel like that, I don't want this to get taken out of context. Like, I think the Texans are a better team than the Steelers.

17:23But that feels like as good of a matchup as you could ask for. Like, that's a flawed offense. Your front can take advantage, potentially, of the Texans. Like at the very least, this could you could drag the Texans down into a 1614. You better believe that's going to be how this thing goes. And so, yeah, I'm not going to I'm not going to write him off yet. But yeah, we don't need to preview that game tonight. I guess final point. I'm not sure winning a 1614 game against the Texans mean what I means what I just said about them not being dangerous doesn't apply. Oh, but we've known that. I mean, if the end game is getting to and winning the Super Bowl, we've known the Steelers aren't doing that since the season started.

18:03I mean, but it'd be the first playoff game they won in how long? Winning a playoff game would be a nice start. You'd be starting probably back over since your quarterback is 41 years old and might be done when the season's over. But those are problems for another day. All right. Before we move on, let's take a quick break.

18:22All right, let's get to the two other games that, again, I guess had the biggest stakes this weekend. It's time for You Have My Attention. Gentlemen, you had my curiosity. Now you have my attention. The Seattle Seahawks lock up the number one seed in the NFC with a 13-3 win over the San Francisco 49ers. I don't even know where to start. about how impressive this game was from Seattle's defense. I really don't. I mean, the Niners had a 38 % offensive success rate. They averaged 4.1 yards per play. Just the lack of anything, even moderately down the field available to the Niners in the passing game, the entire day.

19:07And the Niners are coming into this game just smoking hot on offense, looking like the hottest offense in the NFL. And for Seattle to do what they did to this team from essentially the jump on that side of the ball. It's one of the more impressive defensive performances of this season and in a big spot, one of the more impressive defensive performances I can remember. Can I start with a couple stats that I really like? I would love you to. This is the 49ers lowest point total since the first game of Kyle Shanahan's tenure in the Shanahan era. When Brian Hoyer was playing quarterback? Week one of 2017, they lost 23-3 to Carolina.

19:45I didn't even look to see who was playing quarterback. it right now go ahead and look it up it's their lowest point total since the first game of his tenure and it's only the second time in the last six seasons that san francisco's failed to score a touchdown in a game so like since shanahan got jimmy in there and kind of got things the way he wanted them you're not holding them without a touchdown it happened to him pretty regularly in that first year but since then they're gonna score and to hold them out of to hold the kyle Shanahan 49ers out of the end zone is, I think that says it all. In that game, Brian Hoyer did play quarterback.

20:22The Pierre Garçon led the team in targets. Jesus Christ, that sounds right. He had six catches in that game, Pierre Garçon did. That was tied with Carlos Hyde, who also had six catches for the Niners in that game. So that's what we're talking about. That is the version of the Niners and the error of the Niners that we're discussing. They've had, you know, They've had low scoring games, but yeah, I mean, three points. And I know Ricky Pearsall didn't play and that affects things. And Trent Williams didn't play. I don't care. Not scoring a touchdown is that's rare. That's rare error for a Shanahan offense in San Francisco.

20:58The Seahawks defense was incredible. I really, I don't think it's an overstatement to say that, again, not only was it the best, probably the best defensive performance that a team had this year, when you consider who they're playing against, it's one of the most impressive that I can remember in a really long time. And I just thought that they did. And I think sometimes when you get these performances where a really good offense kind of looks hapless in a spot like this, it can be like maybe the quarterback is just having a bad day or a couple of weird mistakes. Like when Brock pretty did this against the Ravens like two or three years ago and through all those picks, it's like, OK, he's clearly just a young player who is spinning right now.

21:32This just felt like Seattle was sucking the life out of every single passing concept, every single run like they had nothing. And I thought I kind of thought they got in San Francisco's head really early in this game. On the first drive, San Francisco tried multiple times to like shift the balance of the formation by motioning a guy all the way across. And on the first two plays, Seattle would stem their front. And so right before the snap, they take the two defensive tackles and shift them. And so it kind of is like, oh, what do we do with our run blocking rules now? Seattle didn't really do a whole lot of that for the rest of the game.

22:04but it's because after that San Francisco stopped trying to reshape the balance of the formation they were just like we got what we got in any motion we do it's just like we're gonna take a tight end and push him out and so I just thought them getting in their head right immediately like it's very rare that you feel like Kyle Shanahan is on the back foot in a football game and that's how it felt the entire game and when you just think about and this is what's so special about the structure of who the Seahawks want to be defensively the Niners we know this the Niners are a 21 personnel team they're a two-back team they use a ton of heavy personnel over the course of games.

22:34In this game, they played 43%, 21 personnel. They played 12%, 12 personnel. So 54 % with at least multiple tight ends or backs on the field. The Seahawks did not play a single snap without five or more DBs in this entire game. It was all nickel or dime the entire game. And so you're matching nickel with a San Francisco 49ers team. The Niners had a 30 % rushing success rate per next gen with the Seahawks being in nickel or dime the entire game. And some of that is the way that they're stemming the front. Every single member of the Seahawks front had a nice moment against the run in this game. I thought that some of the things that they were doing in terms of stunting the front, they do a great job of that.

23:13Obviously, if you're going to be in light boxes, you have to do that. I thought that the way they used Mafé to kind of knife inside on some of those plays, I mean, he is never going to be the guy that's crushing these plays, eating up double teams and things like that. That's not the type of player he is. But because he is that sort of slasher, you can use him that way. The pieces of their front fit together so beautifully. And we talked about this a little bit today. I thought that, and we'll talk some more about the plan because I thought the plan was really good. But the Seahawks defense and the Texans defense are the two best defenses in the league, in my opinion.

23:46The Texans defense is so different in terms of like the aesthetics of what they are defensively. They are not a team that's really going to out scheme you. If you look at some of the numbers, they rush for as much as almost any other team in the league. no defensive line droppers, no like... They don't scheme at all. They don't do anything. It is purely like our guys are crazy and our guys are better than you and that's what we're going to do. Seattle, it's a structural thing. Like Seattle is a perfect modern defense in terms of how they build it in terms of the architecture. What I really loved about this game is, I said it last night, they looked like a group of infected from 28 days later.

24:24Like that's how the entire DB group was playing. The first moment that comes to mind for me, It was like the second or third drive for the Niners, and they're trying to hit Jawan Jennings on a little slide route. It's one of the first things in my notes. And Tariq Wollin just tracks him down all the way across the formation. They try to throw a screen to George Kittle in the first half. Nick Amonwari slips around a block, drops him six yards deep in the backfield. They hit Demarcus Robinson on a little whip route on third and two. Spoon drops him the moment that he catches that ball. It's the DBs on the Seattle side, And that plays to me into the plan defensively.

25:01If you go back and you watch this, it's a lot of zone coverage. And all of the middle of the field defenders, Drake Thomas, Ernest Jones, Spoon when he's playing in the nickel, they're doing an incredible job all throughout this game. You talk about this. Eyes in the back of your head. They're falling back into all of these in breakers and crossers. And they're taking those away, those routes behind them. They're just getting a ton of depth in all these zone coverages. and they're making the Niners consistently throw the ball underneath and check the ball down. And then they're swallowing every single one of those plays.

25:35It was masterful. Like it just on every single level, mindset, plan, execution. It's everything you could want from a defensive performance. I know he's not a DB, but throw in Drake Thomas, just bodying Juwan Jennings on that crossing. It's exactly the type of play we're talking about. And that the Jennings and Thomas play, those were back to back, by the way. And why I think they're really cool and kind of speak to a lot of the coaching When you think of Tariq Wollin, especially earlier in his career, he was not a guy who really did a whole lot of hitting and tackling. He was a good coverage player, especially down the field, but didn't really play like his counterpart, Devin Witherspoon, who was trying to come down and hit people.

26:08And so for him to have that play where he is tracking across the formation through traffic, which, by the way, great job by like Ernest Jones and Drake Thomas knowing not to get in his way. I thought that was actually another good bit of like, that's a clearly well coached unit. Coordination between all that is crazy. And so Wollin having that moment where like you think of this guy as his coverage player and he's hunting down a player like that and then on the very next play you have drake thomas who i imagine as a missile mini missile he's a hit man you you blitz him you you you run blitz him you want him to hit guards and then he has this play where i know the the end of it where he comes down and his jennings looks cool the depth that he gets to carry the tight end up the seam perfectly pass it off to the safety behind him stop on a dime know that purdy is going to throw that route and then drive on it with a good angle i was like when did he become a useful coverage player and he had a couple of other good moments in this game so woolen going woolen kind of going to the other end of the spectrum being able to hit and drake thomas going to the other end of the spectrum where he can cover it's like the way that these guys are coached and come together is just it's it's one of a kind man two more stats that i really loved when i was looking into this uh if you include playoffs brock purdy has played in 56 games this was one of two games in his career where he's averaged less than five air yards per attempt and it was one of five games in his career where he did not attempt a throw of 20-plus air yards.

27:29And my favorite part about that is of the five, three of them were against a Mike McDonald defense. Two games, again, when he's the head coach of the Seahawks and then the 2023 Christmas game when he was with the Ravens. So that's fun. On the other side of the ball, you know, the Seahawks offense, I still feel like we're going to get some moments as we get throughout this thing where you're going to watch Sam Darnold and you're just going to be like, you're driving me crazy, buddy. Like the first drive where he just doesn't throw the ball in the flat and like those things are going to happen. And against this Niners defense, you kind of wish that they were able to put up more than 13 points.

28:07And they had some chunk gains in the first half. I thought the best things that they were doing in this game were getting the ball on the perimeter every once in a while and the combination of what the backs and a lot of the guys up front were doing on some of those plays where they're getting the ball in space. what Gray Zabel did in this game on some of the screens. That was impressive. I still think that when we get into games where you're playing against these complete teams, I wonder what the offense is going to be able to do. But they made enough plays on some of those moments in space in this game against a bad Niners defense that when your defense is playing the way that it did, it's enough.

28:40And this was a game where, Dave, you kind of talked about it, I think, coming into the week. It was like, if you can't run the ball at least a little bit on the Niners here, Like you need to be able to do that. And they actually did run the ball fairly well. They had a couple of times where they got hit in the backfield. But that was only really when if you notice, like San Francisco was either bringing the nickel or bringing whoever their down safety was. These were flying downhill. It's the best thing that our defense did in this game. Exactly. When they were triggering those guys, they had a couple of plays where they could get into the backfield.

29:06Anytime they didn't do that or if that guy missed or got washed down for whatever reason, plays are popping for six yards, eight yards, ten yards pretty consistently. And then again, you mentioned some of the screen stuff. Like the screen they throw to Ken Walker on the first drive, Tatum Bethune gets completely dusted into the ground by Gray Zabel. Like it is not like he was the one that I had in mind. Like he actually closes on it fairly quickly and like gets on Zabel, but Zabel just immediately goes, no, I'm bigger and better. And we're not going to do this. And he puts him in the ground. And so I just thought that there were a lot of moments where the Seahawks offensive line, the Seahawks run game gave them a better floor than they're used to.

29:42And the passing game was just, again, a little bit uneasy. Yeah, the the DBs you mentioned they had a lot of the run stops in this game. Jair Brown had multiple Malik Mustafa was flying downhill Renardo Green had one at one point Denor and Jamador Lenore had a huge TFL and the third down in this game Jair Brown had maybe the biggest play of the day taking away That go ball to JSN down the left sideline And so I thought the DBs for the Niners played well enough for them to win this game Unfortunately, they're just completely outmanned up front And in the first half, the Seahawks did what they wanted They had 6.3 yards per play Things stalled out a little bit more in the second half But again, when your defense is playing that way You don't need that much I don't want to take the accomplishment away from the Seahawks I mean, they won by 10 points Of course I wouldn't And their defense was so great I do, watching this back over the course of the day today The 3rd and 17, where Walker gets 19 Oh, it's a massive play And then, and obviously we haven't mentioned the Drake Thomas interception, which is a phenomenal play, but it, it could have been a much different story.

30:49Like, I mean, you're, if you're the Niners, you're sitting there. What, if the Seahawks don't pick up that third down, they go three and out, you punt. And I think there's three minutes left in the half or three, three minutes left in the third quarter. Niners have a chance to cut it to, uh, to closer still in the third quarter. Instead, the Seahawks go up 10 early in the fourth. And then even then, if you cash in even a field goal in that situation where Drake Thomas gets the pick, it's white knuckle time and you're holding on for dear life over the final 10 minutes of the game. That's I was out.

31:20I had plans last night. So I was like catching bits and pieces. And I got home just as the Niners were getting down near the goal line in that possession. I was like, all right, here we go. I got home just in time for the best part of the game. And then Drake Thomas makes this incredible play. And I was like, damn, never mind. Seahawks are going to win. So it sounds weird to say about a game where they were so dominant, but that's two big inflection points where this could have looked a lot different. We've talked about this all year. I think this can be just kind of the last thought about this game.

31:49No one is complete top to bottom. No, no one. Everyone's got their warts. Everyone's got something that you're a little bit worried about. And I still think that, you know, the Seahawks offense, as we've gotten deeper into the season, they we've seen kind of the flaws and the limitations of what they are on that side of the ball but every single team has some version of that and the Seahawks still offensively have been a better than average team a good team for most of the year and if the defense is going to be playing like this and the special teams they always get this quiet value from special teams almost every single game they still are the most complete team in my opinion when you think about all three phases and what they are in totality.

32:29And that I do think is like what makes them feel a little bit different to me than like the Texans. Like the Seahawks offense, even if they're a little bit frustrating sometimes, they still do have some pretty good games and they can't put up points against like, whereas with the Texans, it's like, when they have good games, you feel like, not that they got lucky, but you consistently feel like, ah, do it again. You need to prove it to me. Whereas like the Seahawks have enough to fall back on with some of those good games. You're like, maybe they can shrink together if you're in the playoffs and get hot.

32:54I know we're going to cover this and we're going to do an award show later this week and we can talk about it in greater detail there. But like, holy shit, man. Like the biggest, the biggest believers in the Seahawks outside of that fan base were like, I mean, and there were some people, you were high on the Seahawks before the season, but even then it was, it's like, we're not talking enough about this team. This could be a sneaky good team. And they're 14 and three, they just earned the bye week. And what a, just every decision they made from John Schneider to Mike McDonald on down, like the way that it's paid off is so cool.

33:31We're going to talk about it this week. I mean, we're going to hit all of that stuff. Where I was with the Seahawks, I remember sitting there in Renton in late July, talking to Michael Sean Dugar in like a back room in their media room, talking about the outlook for this team. I think a lot of people believe this could be the best defense in the league. And they were the best defense in the league. The defense is even better than you could have hoped because so many small things contributed to this version of the defense. Hitting an Emanwari the way that they did is the skeleton key moment that allows them to become the exact type of defense they want to be.

34:05There's no way to know how much he's going to play, what role he's going to play. Even if you think he's going to be their starting nickel from day one, do you think he's going to be good enough that it lets them live and nickel every single moment of every single game? Probably not. Take Lawrence as an aging player. To get what they've gotten out of him this year that accelerates everything else about their front. So many different little things can't fall into place. But the defense, I think we could anticipate the defense being really good. What I said to Michael Sean is, I don't know what the offense is going to be because how the f*** could you?

34:36Like, there's no possible way for you to predict what this would be. I think they would be better up front than they were last year because the structure of the offense would lend to better offensive line play. When you have a marriage of the run and the pass and you have a play action game that you can lean on, your offensive line play is set up for success in a way that last year wasn't. But you still have personnel concerns. We still have no idea what the pass catchers are going to be. JSN going from a good player to one of the best players in the league, that's something that's hard to predict.

35:06We don't know what Sam is going to be outside of Minnesota where he has that great support system. And so I said they could be the ninth best offense in the league. They could be the 27th best offense in the league. They ended up becoming the 11th best offense in the league and the defense is what it is. that's how you get to be a 14-win team. And so even if you were high on them, I still think you had to acknowledge the potential range of outcomes. The range of outcomes was on the highest possible end it could have been for Seattle. Yeah, this is the best possible timeline thinking about that old community episode.

35:38And it's not over yet because this team is looking pretty damn good as we get into the playoffs. The other one here, the Carolina Panthers win the NFC South, win in quotation marks. The fact that they lost that game yesterday and then they won the division today, I can't remember anything like it. I'm sure some weird thing has happened that's sort of analogous to it. But since I started doing this, I can't remember anything like it. Lost it in horrible fashion. Like if they lost like a 37-34, like, oh my God, went down to the wire kind of game, I could be like, you know what? They put in a good effort.

36:14That was a disgusting performance. They had 19 rushing yards. It was bad. 19 rushing yards. How about that? Like the one thing I was most confident about from our preview, I was like, the Bucs run defense hasn't been good in a month, man. And then 1.4 yards. And it was over almost immediately. The first play of the game, Ikiakuanu is like hanging on to a backside block too long and doesn't climb to the linebacker. There's a run through for a tackle for loss. And then either the next play or on the next drive, Kalashikansi destroys, I think, Austin Corbett. It was Austin Corbett. And just like he's jolts him back in the backfield where I was like, who is that?

36:50It's because I forgot Elijah Kanzi was playing. I did too. When I saw him playing, I was like. You can be forgiven for that since he tore his peck, I think, in week two. Yeah, he's missed like the entire season. He got hurt in that Texans game in September. I think a lot of people are going to go to what the refs were in this game for Carolina. I understand doing that. It was, I thought the, we know this, I don't talk a lot about officiating. I thought the officiating in this game from the start was just playing it bad. the first Elijah Roberts personal foul where he's just like kind of running through the end of the play and they throw a 15-yard flag I'm like this is a playoff game and almost immediately after that we get a taunting call on Mike Jackson because there was like a big collision and he like kind of got in Baker's face yeah Baker scrambled and he like mouthed off to him after the play like very normal this is a playoff game football we're gonna be throwing 15-yard flags on that And then the TMAC pass interference to me, I just am not calling that in this moment, in this sort of game.

37:46Like, it's a physical play at the line of scrimmage. Him being a lot stronger than that DB to me is not cause for throwing a flag. The play before that, you get a helmet thrown by a Panthers player. So a lot of those calls did go against the Panthers in what was a close game. If you are, and the fact that they're in the playoffs, it matters less. if you're a Panthers fan and you're looking at the refs and not looking inward at the 14 for 19 rushing performance, you need to really think about why your team did not win this game. That's one of those in almost every case. Sure, you can get mad at the refs, but you should simply be good enough that the refs are not enough of a factor.

38:25The Panthers have failed to score 17 points in more than half of their games. That cannot be true for any other playoff team ever. That's insane. That I don't know the answer to, but I will, I'll meet you here. The Panthers point differential finished at negative 69. They are the fourth worst point differential to make the playoffs since the merger, along with the 04 Rams, the 2010 Seahawks, and the Tim Tebow 2011 Broncos. Now the fun part about that is the other three all won their wildcard game. So don't write, don't write off the Panthers just yet. And they play, the funniest part about this is The 8-9 NFC South winning Panthers are playing the Los Angeles Rams, who even if there were some down moments over the final few weeks of the season, I think you could absolutely make an argument that they're the best team in the league.

39:17But they also happened to lose to the Panthers earlier this year. So that game has just some layers to it and some intrigue to it that a typical game between an 8-9 division winner and a five-seed really good wildcard team probably would not. That's the perfect game where like in week 14, when a team like the Rams loses that, you're just like, they were being silly. They didn't really mean that. And now they have to play them again. And it's like, well, you better show up this time because it's the season's on the line now. Highlight of this whole thing for me was Baker Mayfield's wife live streaming his having to go through this hell.

39:53And the Buccaneers didn't get the result they needed. Tyler Shuck throws, had a really great run and then followed that up. he throws the interception to D. Alford that kind of seals this for the Falcons. If you were the Bucs and if you're Baker Mayfield, the same way you should play well enough to not have to rely on the refs to determine your season and the way that it goes, you shouldn't have to play poorly enough to rely on, not Tyler Shuck, because I think Tyler Shuck has been fine. Tyler Shuck with the guys Tyler Shuck was playing with today. Oh my God. You should not have to rely on that for you to get into the playoffs if you're the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

40:28We know what's going on with every team in the league And I really, one thing that drew me to this show before I was ever on it Is, I mean obviously we're going to focus on the better teams and the playoff teams But we'll give you a reasonable idea of what's going on with everybody And some of these guys getting targeted in this Saints game I have no problem admitting I was like, who the, who? Who the hell was that? What is Tyler Shuck working with today? Well, they're all guys that, except for Kevin Austin. Like when Kevin Austin was getting targets a couple weeks ago, I was like, I don't know who that is.

41:02But the other guys in this game, they're just throwbacks to like other moments of your time covering the NFL. Like I remember when Audrick Estame was like a draft community darling in the middle rounds, right? I remember that. He's had some moments for the Saints over the last few weeks. I remember when Samari Touré had a little bit of run with the Packers. I remember, again, when Evan Hull was like one of those guys where it's like, oh, Evan Holtz got a little something to him as like a sixth round pick or whatever. I remember when Dante Pettis was that second round kind of route running maven that you like, oh, I could see a path for a guy like that.

41:36So they're all guys. I think Ronnie Bell caught the touchdown. I got them close. I remember when he was on the Niners, I was like, maybe, you know, late round steal. Naeem Hines played in this game for the Saints. It's like, they're all guys that you were probably aware of at some point. I'm not sure, like I said, if you're the Bucs, you should be relying on them to win you a football game in 2026. It's 2026, by the way. Oh, that's a good point. Ture was the one for me where I was like, oh man, I haven't heard about him since his stint with the Packers went sideways. I don't know what else we have to say about the end of the Bucs season.

42:10We've kind of said it all. It is, it's a really depressing end to the season. And them winning that game against the Panthers, I don't think really changes anything about that conversation. It's not like they dominated that game or anything either. Like they dominated in so far as like the Panthers never really got themselves into it. But I just it's they didn't win that in like super convincing fashion to me. I'll be very curious what the changes look like for that team heading into next year. Is that going to be a situation where they look at Josh Grisard and they think that he's scapegoat might be strong, but he's an easy person where you can lay this at his feet.

42:41We're going to make some changes to the offensive staff. We're going to be better there next year. We're going to be healthier along the offensive line. It's going to get us a better version of Baker. We're going to be right back to where we were in 2024. I could see them trying to make that set of arguments. Whether you believe in that set of arguments and you think that there isn't something a little bit deeper that is maybe rotting with what the Todd Bowles Bucks look like, that's up to you. I don't think I'm ready to, I need time to dive into all of that because like part of me, part of me thinks, you know, with, with a little bit of better health.

43:19And I, I mean, I think the Bucks defense needs to be overhauled. I mean, they started it this year with their secondary, but you gotta, you gotta do something about the front seven in Tampa. And even, I mean, even guys that you've relied on for, for so long, like Vita Veya are getting older. And, and I mean, great timing to bring up Kalijah Kansi. You lose him for the vast majority of the season, but that needs to be retooled. Like for Todd Bowles to have the reputation that he has, whether you think he deserves it or not, the defense falling apart was more damning to me than the offense, because I could point to a whole bunch of reasons why the offense never really kicked back into gear after like the first five or six weeks.

43:59Here's what I'm worried about. Now, my concern is, I think even an optimistic spin of this Bucs season is, well, it's kind of like a less lucky version of the 2023 season. What were they really in 2023? Is that something to get overly excited about? When I think about what the Bucs have been over the last three years, it does feel like this was kind of a version of them more akin to the 2023 version. And that last year was the outlier version. When you have a guy who is clearly shown to be in Liam Cohen, a difference making play caller. And if you're just going to be back to the 2023 version with no appreciable progress from that, where does that leave you?

44:42I don't think that's worth being excited about. Because that's the thing. 2023 was like found money because you had you got Baker Mayfield basically off of the scrap heap and he becomes like a starting quarterback for you. Like that was a different consideration than kind of ending up there now after what you saw he was capable of last year. Okay, I love where this is with the Bucs and who they played this weekend and who they were fighting to win the division for because, and I agree with everything y 'all just said, but it's, what do you always say, Robert? It can always be worse. like it's it is a special type of hell to always be a seven to ten win team and like kind of like the sealers like you're in the mix but nobody takes you seriously and you cannot provide the reason why anybody should and i get that that's frustrating and i think as a fan it's totally fair if you aspire to more than that the panthers just won the division for the first time since 2015 and this is the first time since 2019 that they're not picking in the top 10 so like it can be a hell of a lot worse than being stuck in that weird purgatory of being a decent team.

45:42And I don't, I don't know. That doesn't mean that you shouldn't seek to be better. I'm just saying you could do that and wind up in an even worse situation than you are right now. Yeah. I just, I think that there are two different situations, right? The Steelers won. I think if you really wanted to make the argument for why the Steelers could eventually bust out of this. The Steelers have not committed to a quarterback plan post Ben Roethlisberger. Like if you, for whatever, I'm trying to think of the right example. Let's Tyler Shuck, right? I don't know how good Tyler Shuck is going to be, but let's just say that the Steelers in this draft or the next draft find their Tyler Shuck and enough stuff remains consistent about the Steelers where they are this nine-win team and then they find the right quarterback that can help them breakthrough.

46:33That could potentially be on the horizon. With the Bucs, you have the quarterback in place. You've committed to this quarterback plan. The play caller seems to be the thing offensively with the Bucs that you need to get to that place and to be that sort of team. And maybe that's enough. Maybe if they find the right guy on that side again, it takes them where they need to go. But should that be necessary? Should you need Liam Cohen every time over? because it, or is the, are the limitations of the team and the offense outside of that enough for you to say, this just isn't good enough. I think that there are some similarities because I think that that idea of we're just going to kind of hang around the middle and then maybe we'll have that year where X, Y, or Z is good enough to push us through and accelerate us.

47:17I think that's a dangerous thing where you're sitting there hoping and waiting that that's going to happen. I get yes I agree with you and we mentioned it we've mentioned it on shows in the last couple weeks where seeing what Cohen did for the Jags in year one that's demoralizing if you care about the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and I get it like I said the fear of it being worse doesn't mean you shouldn't try but then there's the cynical side of this too where we know Todd Bowles just signed an extension over the summer and NFL team owners often don't love paying people to go away, at least not this many years out.

47:57I don't think that they should change anything. I don't think Todd Bowles should lose his job. I think I'm just at a place with the Bucs where what reasons do we have really to believe this is going to be different next year? It did this. And I mean, you can go back and find me throughout the summer getting hyped about the Bucs and thinking this could be a year they became something more and for it to fall as flat as it did yeah it it kind of kills your confidence that I mean and maybe they'll get better injury luck next year and they could be a better team but like ascending on to another level in the hierarchy of the NFL it's that's kind of hard to buy right and I think kind of to what you're you're saying a little bit Robert I think even if they get healthy next year and they get to 90 percent of what they were in 2024 the offense gets you back to a really good spot but then if the defense doesn't take any sort of step you're still like probably a 10-win team that like kind of gets into this wild card and has like a whatever season.

48:51The defense, I'm kind of with Dave, like the front talent needs to change. Like they had some of the worst linebackers in the league. Obviously, you lose Kalaja Kansi and you don't really have as much pop on your defensive line as I think you would like. And even though they signed Hassan Redick, like I think that they still need a lot of pass restitution. So they fixed the secondary to some degree, which I like. But I think I've said before, Todd Bowles' defense has some of its issues. Like I think you can get them in certain stuff, like especially if you get into base and you can run the ball on them.

49:15He's not going to have his fun stuff. But I do think that it is, I'm willing to give them one more offseason of like, can you fix the front talent on the front seven? And then we'll see if we end up in the same 8-9, 9-8 spot again. I think that's a good thing to bring up because the idea of watching Liam Cohn be depressing as a Bucs fan, I can understand that. I also think watching Mike McDonald will be depressing as a Bucs fan because if you get the talent to a place that you feel good about and the defense still isn't good enough, we arrive at a place like, It's a joke I made like a month ago.

49:46What would you say you do here, Todd? Like if the defense isn't good enough, like that's where you need to be making an appreciable difference. And if that doesn't happen and we feel good enough, and the question right now is, is the personnel good enough for you to come to that conclusion? And it might be no, but if they can get the personnel to a slightly better place and the defense is still falling short, then we're at a place where we got offensive coaches that are doing everything they can to maximize their side of the ball and we got defensive coaches that are doing everything they can to maximize their side of the ball.

50:14If the Bucs are getting none of those things, what type of decisions do the Bucs need to do and what to make and what sort of conclusions they need to come to? With the Panthers on a big picture level, we're going to have this conversation over the next couple of weeks. I don't want to diminish the fact that the Panthers won the NFC South. They actually did do that, and they took a considerable step forward in a lot of ways as an organization. I think what you said on the previous show is exactly right. They paid for the defense to get from historically bad to acceptable. That happened. We've seen that all year, and I think that there are some young pieces that you can get excited about, whether that's second contract free agents like Trevin Merrig, guys like Nick Scorton.

50:53I think that we do have Derek Brown kind of really showing us what he can be as part of a better unit. Obviously, he was hurt all year last year. There are some things on that side of the ball where it's like, okay, we're moving in the right direction. Offensively, you have some proof of concept. You didn't yesterday, but over the course of the year that you can run the ball on your terms, that can be the foundation of who you are. We know that team act is going to be a really good player. There is a lot to like I still think that they have a very long way to go The quarterback is a massive question mark that i'm sure we'll talk about over the next week, but In terms of the overall trajectory and the arc of the franchise Getting to a point where you are eight nine and you are going to be playing in the playoffs based on where you've been Is a huge achievement It should not be diminished just because the way that this thing unfolded was like kind of weird and wet and gross I'm just going to prefer to think of and I'm not writing them off in the playoffs either.

51:46I mean, they beat the Rams in Charlotte already this year, but I'm going to think about the Green Bay game and the Rams game and the first Bucs game. Not so much this one that just happened. And yeah, there were some legitimately really good, really fun moments for this team. And even if it was weird at the end, an unmitigated success for a franchise that's been through it over the last 10 years. No, it's not. It's almost like we feel worse about them because they have to play a playoff game that they like don't deserve to. Well, I hope that I hope our final impression is. We shouldn't. Exactly.

52:19Because they don't get smeared off the field against the Rams. If we said coming into the year, the Panthers would be eight and nine and the offense would mostly have proof of concept. They maybe just need to change the quarterback and the defense got better. We'd all be like, well, yeah, they accomplished all their goals, checked all their boxes. It's just that like now that they have to play a weird playoff game that they probably don't deserve because the Bucs were bad. And the fact that they lost, it was supposed to be a play-in game. It's just like it makes it feel worse than it probably deserves if you look like the whole scope of the season.

52:48Exactly. And I can understand Panthers fans being frustrated by the tone of this conversation, but it's an admittedly weird set of circumstances. Like it's hard to work through in a way that feels correct. And I think that's kind of where I am with it. To wrap this whole thing up, we should mention the team that won to seal this whole thing fired their coach and GM after it was all said and done. So just to be clear, one of the reasons we're not talking about that, Derek and I are going to hit all of the firing news, the hiring, not hiring news, I don't think. The firing news, the news about the hiring processes in Atlanta, because we've already heard about that.

53:25Some of the retention news. That's going to be the hangover tomorrow is that we're just going to sit with everything that we've heard about the coaching cycle. And so we will talk about what happened with Raheem Morris and Terry Fontenot tomorrow and into the show on Tuesday. So I encourage you guys to check that out. All right, no WTF today because nothing in week 18 can rise to the level of me caring that much to say what the f*** about it. So we're just going to spend a little bit of time here as we get to the end of the show talking about what the playoff field looks like now that we have all the seedings in place and what the wildcard round schedule is.

54:00And then now we have the top of the draft as well. All right, before we move on, we're going to take one more quick break.

54:11So playoffs are set. Broncos hold on to the number one seed. They get the bye next week. Patriots are playing the Chargers in the 2-7 game. Jags and the Bills in the 3-6 game. Obviously talked about the Steelers-Texans already. The Seahawks have the bye in the first round. The Bears get the Packers in the 2-7 game because the Eagles lost to Washington. The Eagles will now get the Niners and then the Panthers play the Rams. Not surprised at all that the Rams-Panthers game is the 4-30 on Saturday wildcard game. Just want to say congratulations to the Houston Texans for graduating. Congratulations to you guys.

54:45The fact that you are not in that spot just says, I don't know if it says a lot about you, but it says a lot about the state of the rest of the playoffs this year. They even got their own day on Monday. How about that? That is to go from the nobody wants this 3.30 Saturday kickoff to Monday night football, standalone, all eyes on you. Like that's a hell of a leap. Good for them. The Rams-Panthers game exactly where it should be. I do not love the fact that we have to watch the Bears-Packers game. And just for you guys, so you know, we're going to be doing live recaps on Saturday and Sunday in the wildcard round, the divisional round.

55:23So we're going to be watching Bears-Packers. And then I will immediately have to come sit at this table and talk about it with you guys, which I'm not really looking forward to. I'm extremely looking forward to. I'm glad I'm back. But what if it goes well and you live forever? There is a 0 % chance that the game is lopsided enough for me to not be in a completely disheveled state by the time we're recording. If they win, I think it's probably going to be close enough where I'm not doing well by the time we get there. But I mean, selfishly, that'll be good podcasting. Yes. You know, the content will be well served.

55:58I'm not sure I'm going to be better off for it. Probably not. There's no other way this could be for the Chicago Bears and what they've put you through this year. So obviously there's a ton of intrigue in that game based on the fact that we've seen that game twice already. It's been close both times. We'll talk about this a lot over the next week. To me, it has the widest range of emotional outcomes for Bears fans because losing to the Packers in that game and then having to hear about it for the entire offseason is just a miserable potentiality, like a miserable one. But beating the Packers in a situation like this would be incredibly satisfying for Bears fans.

56:35And so if you lose to the Niners in the exact game you played on Sunday Night Football, everyone's kind of like, oh, okay, fun season. That's not what this is. In any way, that's not what this is. I have no skin in the game, but I would rather drink bleach than play my biggest rival in a game like that. That's kind of how I'm feeling right now. No, thank you. That's kind of how I'm feeling right now. The rest of the slate, I think my two favorite games, because there's no way Bears-Packers is going to be my favorite game for exactly the reason that you just said, Bills-Jags and Niners-Eagles are bangers of wildcard weekend games.

57:10Like, absolute bangers. Do we have lines on those games yet, Beller?

57:19We can keep talking. But I think those two games are just, those are like absolute bangers of wildcard games. I really think, and it's a valid criticism that sometimes I can be prisoner to the moment. I guess I'd have to go back and look at all of them. But typically, since we expanded to seven teams on each side and added the two extra games, like you can kind of look at one and just be like, all right, I'm not feeling this. Like, and ironically, that game wound up being really good. but like the Bills-Dolphins game a few years ago where the Dolphins had to start Skyler Thornton. The Bills-Steelers game a couple years.

57:55Skyler Thompson. Skyler Thompson. I mean, whatever. The Bills-Steelers game, really most of the game, the Steelers played the Chiefs one time. Like most of the games that involved the Steelers, I'm not usually that interested. But this one, I am. I legitimately am. Like I think this could be a really interesting matchup because of what we've seen from the Texans offense. And the Texans offensive line gives you, You put a lot of it. It puts a lot of things in the table. These two fronts have a chance to take over this game. Like I'm way more into the Steelers game than I typically would be. And I think Justin Herbert, that Patriots defense, like gives him a chance to play Superman, I think.

58:31And so and the Panthers have already beaten the Rams this year. So I can get on board with that. Like I don't look at a single game on this slate and just kind of hand wave it. Even like I expect the Rams to win that game, but I'm more into it than than I think the average person would think. Let me give you these lines. Bills minus one. Eagles minus three and a half. I mean, that's good shit. I mean, the Eagles are at home and the Bills are on the road. These are incredibly close matchups. Bills, Jags, there's almost part of me, and we were saying this is, it became clear those teams were going to play against each other.

59:02There's part of me that's like a little bit bummed one of those teams has to lose. Yes. They're like one of those teams has to lose on wildcard weekend. So this actually, I'm going to be a nerd for a second. In esports happens a lot where like in the quarterfinals, everyone is like, that's the real finals. and they just, just the way that the bracket turns out. You think Bill Jags is the real AFC championship game? That's a crazy thing to say. It's not that far from it, I don't think. The Jags are the three seed. Why is it that crazy? It's the three seed against Josh Allen. I guess I can kind of understand that.

59:30It's really not that insane. No, it's insane. Josh Allen against the Jags is the real AFC championship game is one of the most Derek Klass encoded things that's ever been said on this podcast. But at this point, I kind of stand on it. You just have to respect it. And then Niners-Eagles, the Niners offense, again, outside of any team they've played other than the Seahawks has looked phenomenal recently, but the Niners defense is bad enough, especially up front, where you can imagine the Eagles offensive line just winning that game in full force. And then the Eagles defense is a really good unit.

1:00:03Like, I think the Eagles defense could give the Niners offense problems where a lot of defenses cannot right now. And honestly, Brock Purdy having to play outside in the cold in January, like, there's like a little bit of something to that. I will meet you here. And I think I said this pretty early in the day today. Like March Madness in basketball, you know, there's always like a three seed where people are like, oh, yeah, but like they're playing the best ball. Like they're so much better than people realize. If you removed what we know contextually about the Jags, like if you just wiped their logo away, the way their quarterbacks played for most of the last six weeks, their defense, their play color.

1:00:40But you can't remove the context of who the Jags are from the conversation. You just you can't be like, oh, they're not a cursed schizophrenic franchise anymore. Now that they're in the playoffs. That's not how it works. They are a different team now that Jacoby Myers is in the building. And that is what I choose to believe. That is the reality that I live in. You know what? I hope you're right. I hope you're right. And I am I'm sneakily pretty in on the Jags, but I just I can't get all the way to fully trusting them. We'll have plenty of time to talk about all of those matchups. Just so you guys know, this week, we're going to be doing the same thing we've done for the last couple years.

1:01:14We're going to be splitting our wildcard preview and the divisional round preview into two different shows. And so, point blank, there's going to be a shitload of podcasts in your guys' feed this week. Just be on the lookout for that, because we're going to be doing two previews with six games split across two shows. And like I said earlier, we're going to have a Saturday recap that we're going to be doing live after the Saturday games and then a Sunday recap that we're going to be doing live after the Sunday games. We're going to have it for the wildcard round and the divisional round. I joke that it's a lot of podcasts.

1:01:44This is my favorite time of the year to do the athletic football show. It always has been. Like getting to just zero in and giving these games the treatment and the attention that they deserve both before and after, I do not enjoy doing this show more than I do during wildcard and divisional weekend. So I am pumped about what this is going to look like. It makes having done it and grinded for 18 weeks like extremely worth it. This is the best time of the year. Monday recap too. Don't forget about that. And the Monday night recap too. So we're going to be doing that. And then we'll talk about this a lot in the meantime until we get there.

1:02:16But that Monday recap will be available in audio form in your guys' podcast feeds. Unlike some of the Monday night football recaps we typically just do on YouTube. The other housekeeping thing that happened today that we should hit before we get out of here because massive implications from week 18 is what the draft order now looks like. We knew that the Raiders were going to have the number one pick. Congratulations to the Las Vegas Raiders The New York Jets Are now the owners of the number two pick After the Giants Win over the Cowboys in week 18 So the Jets are going to be in a position Where, and tons of time To talk about this, start checking out Building the Beast if you have not If this is a two quarterback draft, the Jets will be in a position Where they have to give up nothing To draft that quarterback with one of their 10 ,000 picks that they have So the Jets are now at two, the Giants are now down at five.

1:03:05So congratulations on that win against the Cowboys. And then the commanders dropped down, I think two spots. They were picking fifth. They're now picking seventh because that went over the Eagles. And then the ones that are interesting to me, the Saints now are the, the Chiefs have a top 10 pick. Now the Chiefs are picking in the top 10. And while that is sad, if you're a Chiefs fan, like you've had to endure what is a miserable football season relative to expectations and relative to what you're used to. When you're one of these teams, getting that season where you just have a nightmare year out of nowhere, and instead of picking 31st and pulling from that talent pool, you get to pick in the top 10.

1:03:43The Eagles have done this consistently, where the Eagles have these bad seasons mixed in with them going to the Super Bowl. And ultimately, that's good for the long term health of your franchise because you can take Jalen Carter. Like this has the chance to be that for the Chiefs now. I'm a thousand percent positive Chiefs fans have are like the minute probably before this Raiders game went final. Hopefully you didn't watch too much. Nothing good waiting for you there. But I'm positive Chiefs fans have already moved on to the copium of like Jordan Tyson, Carnell Tate, Caleb Downs, freaking who would take your pick Arvel Reese.

1:04:22Maybe for some reason he lasts all the way to number nine, like the caliber of player that is available to the Chiefs. I mean, it's wild to think about. I mean, what if I had told you in August that the Chiefs and Saints would be picking back to back? Would you think the Saints went on a miracle? I don't know how I would have fit that puzzle together. You think the Saints went on a miracle run or the Chiefs had it all fall apart? That's absolutely beautiful. But yeah, I mean, I think about the two guys that come to mind for me. I don't know exactly how they ended up with these picks and I would have to look back at it because all the trades, the Eagles always had picks coming out of the woodwork.

1:04:52But Devontae Smith, right? Like Devontae Smith, that was the year where they ultimately trade down and they end up getting Devontae Smith. Yeah, they traded back with Dallas, yeah. And so it's not always a bad thing long-term to have a season like this if you were in a position like the Chiefs are. So congratulations to the Kansas City Chiefs on their top 10 pick. That's the way the top 10 looks right now. Once again, we will talk about all of the coaching news tomorrow as we get a little bit more information. Obviously, the Falcons head coach and GM jobs are now open. We know that the Giants job is open.

1:05:28We know the Titans job is open. Plenty more to come down in the next 24 hours or so. So before we get out of here, let's talk about what made us feel romantic about football in week 18. I mean, this thing was a thing of beauty. I think all of us can comfortably say that Miles Garrett breaking the sack record is a moment that makes you feel romantic about football. And the play where he did it to me is just, it's everything that makes Miles Garrett where Miles Garrett is. So the left tackle for the Bengals, Orlando Brown Jr. on that play, it's, it's, he's early in the way that Jawan Taylor has been early for years, right?

1:06:05Like he times it up very well, but Jawan Taylor gets a fantastic jump on, or Orlando Brown gets a fantastic jump on that play. Miles is not looking at the ball. He goes off, I keep talking with Jawan Taylor. He goes off Orlando Brown's movement. And so his jump, even if Orlando Brown got a great jump ahead of the snap, Miles gets the exact same jump because he's going off of his movement. So he explodes off the ball. It's a crazy get off. The bend that that man gets at 6 '5", 280 pounds, and the flexibility to turn the corner and get back to the quarterback to finish that playoff. It's a reminder, and this entire season has been a reminder, he's an all-time player.

1:06:45he is an all-time freak show talent in this league the way that he moves how productive he has been he's been the best defensive player of football for a while now and so for him to have a historic season for a historic talent in the NFL despite how Don Trout and the Browns have been it's hard not to feel pretty good about Miles Garrett now having this jewel in his crown and what is a first ballot, no doubt about it, legendary Hall of Fame career. I'm just glad that it's cemented. Like, and we can, you know, we can do the always he did in 17. I don't really care. He is number one on the list now.

1:07:22And that to me, that means a lot. Because again, he is, I've said it before, if we want to say that like, overall, Aaron Donald's better, JJ, well, I don't really care. The best pure edge rusher off the edge that I've ever seen is that guy. And so for him to end it in very typical Biles Garrett fashion, where he's bending in a way that 280 pounds should never really be able to bend the corner to me is absolutely perfect. Like, I just thought he's such a phenomenal player, and for him to get it is awesome. I also love, like, when a guy has those types of expectations placed on him, number one overall pick.

1:07:54And, like, a guy that we were pretty confident going into that draft. Like, that was a year where it was like, okay, well, the draft starts after Miles. And, like, to deliver on that, and obviously, you know, the Browns haven't had the team success that I'm sure they were imagining when they drafted Miles and Baker back to back, but he has delivered on every bit of the hype that goes with that type of pick in a way that there've been plenty of good number one overall picks, but to like, to really just check every box and completely look and be the part is, is, makes it impressive and special. It's almost impossible to outplay the hype as one of those like generational number one overall picks.

1:08:33And he's done it. Like he's the most productive pass rusher. a pass rusher has ever been for someone his age. And now he has now the sack record. Like he just, there's really, for him to do that, to have all the hype and truly deliver on it over and over and over again, it's just like he's, I can't get enough how good he is. I started doing this professionally, covering the league in 2011, 2012. The three guys defensively who stand completely apart of anybody that I've watched are Aaron Donald, JJ Watt, and Miles Garrett. Those are the three guys. They are in a completely different tier and conversation than anybody else.

1:09:09And so for him to have this sort of all-time season, it is fitting for the type of player that we're talking about. All right, Derek, what made you feel romantic in Week 18? Honestly, Cam Little. So Cam Little is... Special teams matter. Let's go. I'm becoming the special teams guy in Week 18. So Cam Little, he kicked a 67-yard field goal in this game. And that is not the NFL record, but it is now the NFL record for a kick outside, which is incredible. And the reason why this made me romantic is we are in a year, especially where it almost feels like we've become numb to kickers kicking these like 58, 59, 62 yard field goals where it seems like it happens every week.

1:09:53For a guy to outside make a kick where I'm like, holy shit, I can't believe he did that. And he like draws the ball from outside the right crossbar and then like curves it back into dead middle. And it's just like he bent it like Beckham. I could not believe that he did that. And it's it's again easy. He made it look like he had a couple of yards to go if he really needed it. And for again, we are in an era where it feels like you can almost be numb to how good some of these kickers are. And he in that moment, like I was I was shocked that he made that. I guess of all the cities where you would want to be setting a record like that outdoors in January, like Jacksonville is a good place to be.

1:10:33Yeah. But you're still kicking outdoors in January. I mean, it's like 50 degrees. I know that's not Cleveland or anything, but yeah, incredible. And he now has the top two, right? He set the record period earlier this year. Nice season. What made me feel romantic about Wolf Football in Week 18 is that the Jets did not intercept the pass in this game. It's going to be one of my favorite statistical anomalies or maybe just feats. Let's call it a feat that I've seen since I started caring about this sport. Teams attempted 515 passes against the New York Jets this season. 515. They finished with zero interceptions.

1:11:13There's never been a season where a team finished with one interception. The next lowest total is two. That was it. Every team in NFL history since they started recording interceptions has had at least two of them defensively in a season. The Jets had zero over the course of this entire year. It's impossible. Based on sheer luck, I watched the Bears have another one today where it's just one random tipped overthrow and it turns into an interception. The fact that that didn't happen one time in 515 pass attempts, it should not be possible. An abysmal season getting interceptions is like you stumble into four of them or five, like none at all, which, and honestly, the first place my brain goes is that just means like week one of next year, they're going to get two.

1:12:04Yeah, absolutely. It's going to be like a dominant story. They're going to roll them over into next year and they're going to have like 30. Here's my favorite part of this is that typically when you have a team, very good example of this, I believe the 2024 Browns only had like four interceptions. And then this year, the defense was much better than it was in 2024. Turnover regression is one of the most obvious possible things that you can point to for a team to either perform better or worse than they did the year before. The Jets are so bad that the competing forces of turnover regression and organizational ineptitude on the other side and the push and pull that will come from that about how much better we should expect the Jets to be if they get 10 interceptions next year, it's going to be a confusing offseason trying to sort through all of that and trying to comb through all of that.

1:12:52I'm looking forward to it. You have to be some degree of better, but one would be... But how much better? Yeah, exactly. One is technically exponentially better, but that doesn't really help. They lost five straight games by at least 21 points. Not great. I think they were outscored by 134 points over the last five or six games of the season. I get why Aaron Glenn is coming back. One and done is tough. Your team has had a ton of turnover. We talked about it last week when we did the silver linings. It's hard to find one with the Jets. It's really difficult to be excited about anything happening with the New York Jets.

1:13:25Picks. Picks, Robert. Come find us on Building the Beast, Jets fans. Maybe Dante Moore is enough for you to feel really good about where the Jets are going. Sometimes a quarterback is enough for that to happen, but my God. I was going to say when you brought up the draft earlier, Friday night, Fernando Mendoza rematching against Dante Moore. So you got both of the big quarterbacks in one game. If you're a Jets fan, that's all you need. You better be tuned in. You check out Fernando Mendoza, Dante Moore. Dave, what made you feel romantic about football in week 18? I had a moment of connection over the weekend.

1:13:59And I mean, we love talking about football. And, you know, we have great channels for doing that. But something really cool about like getting out into the world and like we sit on these microphones most of the time and we watch these games in very controlled environments. And whatever it was a month ago when the Bears beat the Packers, Robert got to have that cool moment at a bar for the Caleb pass. And it wasn't as euphoric, obviously, but I just had I had a really cool moment. I, you know, I already I had plans on Saturday. It was my fiance's birthday. So we had a whole thing planned and we wound up in a bar on Saturday evening for the end of the Bucks Panthers game.

1:14:39And no TVs in the bar. It wasn't a sports bar. So what did I do? I obviously threw the game up on my phone. And we're sitting there. We're watching like the last five, six minutes of this game, talking amongst ourselves. And the bartender, we had not exchanged a word. Like he just saw the phone propped up on like my water glass. and he just goes, who's got the ball? And I was like, the Bucs. And no, I was like, the Panthers, they're driving. And he's like, what happened to the Bucs? Like they were down in the red zone. I was like, their field goal got blocked. He was like, oh my God. And so we started talking.

1:15:15He's like, I'm from Charlotte. I'm a diehard Panthers fan and I am dying and I don't have a TV. And like my, I can feel my phone buzzing and I'm just, I'm in hell. And so like, I just talked him through the rest of the game and it ended and obviously they lost me and my fiance were like, sorry, man, they didn't pull through for you. He's like, that's all right, man. Like the Falcons play tomorrow. Like we could still get this. And honestly, with what we've been through, I'm just, I'm just happy to be here. And it was just, it was a cool moment of connection where, and it's, there's so many reasons to love football, but the way that you can immediately have common ground with somebody like that, where we were just simpatico for the rest of the next like 20 minutes, it was, it was really cool.

1:15:56And like the scheme and, and the managing of the rosters is all really fun but like the human connection element is it's so cool and and we you know it's a first world problem but we don't get that as much as maybe we did before we started podcasting about it absolutely it's cool to get the reminder it honestly my my first initial reaction to that is it makes me excited for the live show on wednesday i'm excited to do it i'm excited to meet some folks i'm excited to hang out and chat about it after and excited to just chat with you guys because it, that part is, is why this is fun. It's because the game and the sport and how much we care about it is like an ultimate, ultimate point of connection.

1:16:33And so getting to lean into that stuff as often as we can, there's very little that's better than that. Shout out, shout out to Jacob. I'm glad the Panthers made it into the post season. I was all throughout the Saints Falcons game. I was wondering like where he was watching the game. We're going to wind things down here with what we learned in week 18. You know, I think I've learned something today I learned jack shit Clayton soon played a game Where he did not attempt to pass Beyond the line of scrimmage There is nothing to be learned in week 18 Like, let's just be clear about this Even the teams, like I like the Bears game, right?

1:17:09The Bears theoretically have something on the line But like, you've already made the playoffs Like, you know The one seed's off the table The one seed's off the table It doesn't really matter if the Eagles lose like week 18 is weird as hell every single week, every single year. We don't have to like think too much about a lot of the things that went down today other than the if you win, you're in, or if you lose, you lose games. And we talked about plenty of those at the top. What we did learn today, though, that does matter is that Derek officially lost the wins pool. Oh, wow. I had forgotten the Steelers Ravens game.

1:17:44I didn't forget. I know. I'm sorry. The Steelers-Ravens game was so crazy, it took my mind off of it. Thank God I clinched before that, because the Ravens are my team, and of course they let me down one more time before the season was over. I'm so glad that I didn't have to give a shit about this for the last eight weeks. I'm so, so glad. This is the third year that we've done it. It is the first year that I have not lost, and so Derek is the one who will be paying off the bet when we get to Radio Row. This year is a little bit different. We solicited the punishment from you guys earlier in the season.

1:18:15The punishment is Derek will have to dress up like a super fan of the team that did him in the worst in his group of seven. And I think we've decided it is the Kansas City Chiefs, correct? I mean, objectively, it kind of has to. If we're just doing like who took away the most wins based on what you thought preseason, it's pretty comfortably the Kansas City Chiefs. So we're workshopping what this is going to look like. But at least one day when we are in a professional space, surrounded by all of the people that we know and respect in our line of work, Derek is going to look like an asshole. You hear it?

1:18:55That's the pain of a man who had to do this. I've done it twice. Can I say you saying that you didn't have to worry about this? I think when I think the week or two leading up to the Super Bowl, I will start freaking out about this again. I feel better now than I have the last like three weeks when it was I was really debating whether or not I could win this when I realized when I think the Jets losing and the Lions winning completely took me out. I was like, all right, my fate is sealed. I don't have to think about Raven Steelers. It is what it is. See, that's the funny thing. I feel like a jerk because I mentally gave up like a month ago.

1:19:34I was like it's done it's over I hadn't checked in on it and then like preparing for last week's show I was like oh shit the Saints have won like five games in a row and the Titans have won a couple like I'm in better shape than I thought I was and then when I started feeling good when the Vikings when I knew Clayton Toon was going to be playing for the Packers basically I was like alright I got a shot and you know where the Chiefs really got me if the Chiefs had beaten the Titans I'm pretty sure I'm fine I'm pretty sure I win by half of a game I think I might be doing the math wrong Or it would have at least been closer But like that game really got me bad Here's the thing though On Radio Row If you're dressed as like a super fan of a team You're not gonna stand out That much Compared to some of the other weirdness that happens On Radio Row The last two years The people who are working They're not gonna think twice about you They're not gonna be like oh man this guy's dressed weird I got looks and questions from every single person in that convention center because I was dressed as a goddamn hot dog.

1:20:39And so the fact that you don't have to do that, I think you're getting off easy. This is like some real, we had to walk uphill to school, barefoot, in the snow. That's exactly what it is. Your traumatizing experience wasn't as bad as mine. I think for me, because I feel that way about the hot dog one, the last year's the face paint one doesn't trip me out about it. I think what I've realized what it is. I was picking glitter out of my clothes for weeks. That's fine. That's fine. But there's something about the face paint I think is kind of funny. I think it's the putting on the costume that makes me feel extra like a clown.

1:21:10I think that that's what's getting me. It's the putting shit on. I know. You didn't want to feel like a clown. You should have picked better teams. I shouldn't have drafted the Kansas City Chiefs, which is a crazy thing to be saying. But here we are. Who could we, who could we, who could we like interview or wind up talking to that would just make Derek hate himself the most? I'm trying to remember. Is it like, is it Trevor? I talked to Jordan Love last year which if I had to do that now as a Chiefs fan would be like a little bit mortifying last year the first thing I had to do with Unicorn Face Paint I walk into Radio Royale looking like that and I have to have like a serious conversation with Michael Pittman it was the first thing I had to do and so I'm really looking forward to whatever that version is for you this year we're going to get something good that is all we've got from week 18 like I said a lot of stuff coming your guys way this week we're going to have a Black Monday breakdown tomorrow with me and Derek recapping all of the coaching news in the typical Monday hangover slot.

1:22:03Building the Beast coming your way. It's regularly scheduled time. If you are not listening to Building the Beast, especially if you are a fan of these teams picking in the top 10, it's time. It is officially draft season for you. And so Dave and Dane are coming to you weekly all the way through the draft, the combine, everything. So please start checking that out if you have not. and then we're going to be doing some mid-season awards in the middle of this week, which I am very much looking forward to. A lot of stuff to dig into there. Our live show is January 7th at Lincoln Hall in Chicago at 7.30 p.m.

1:22:38Doors are at 6.30. We still have some tickets available. There are only a few left. So if you are in the Chicagoland area or you're within spitting distance and you want to come check that out, please do. We're very much looking forward to it. And then to round out the week, We got a two-part preview coming your guys' way as we get to wildcard weekend. It is the best time of the year in the NFL, and I am pumped to be getting there. So for now, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.