Week 5 preview: Two surprisingly fun matchups take center stage

0:03Robert Mays: Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. It's the week five preview with me, Derrik Klassen and Dave Helman. Really enjoyed this two games of the week. We have the Seahawks and the Bucks talked a lot about why the Seahawks have been better than people might have expected this year. Also have the commanders and the Chargers dug into Washington's defense this year and some of the limitations that we've seen from them, whether it's going to matter against the Chargers offensive line. That's absolutely decimated. Hit one thing from Patriots. Bills, Jags Chiefs, and Texans Ravens went a little under the hood with the Carolina Panthers offense just to try to figure out what the heck is going on for a unit that we thought was beyond this type of play after what they showed in the back half of last season.

0:45Robert Mays: And then talked about what we want to know coming out of week five in the NFL. Really enjoyed this one. Hope you guys do too. Let's get to it right now.

0:59Robert Mays: It's the week five preview here on the athletic football show. There's some weeks, Dave, where it all just kind of comes together, right? We're trying to plan the show, trying to figure out what we want to talk about. And then you look at the plan when it's done. You're like, that's it. That makes all the sense in the world. This felt like one of those weeks. I'm very excited about a lot of the conversations that we're going to have today.

1:17Derrik Klassen: It's a very pleasing slate. Like when you look at it, like, you know exactly where your attention is going in the early window. Got like the two games of the week that we're going to hit are late window games. So you can kind of build to that. Love the Sunday night matchup and the Monday night matchup, too. It's very balanced. It's very full. Yeah, it's like a well-balanced meal.

1:38Robert Mays: We're going to talk about why the Panthers offense is struggling a little bit later on the show. and we're going to talk about why the Patriots are really intriguing on offense a little bit later in the show. We're going to figure out on a scale of one to ten how self-satisfied Derek is going to be by the time we're done recording today.

1:53Dave Helman: I think that might be a dangerous end of that segment when we get there, but I'll holster that for now.

1:58Robert Mays: Let's get to the games of the week presented by BetMGM. Our first one here, the Seahawks and the Bucs. The Seattle Seahawks are three and a half point favorites over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, David. But typically with these games of the week, we try to figure out or try to land on why is this the game of the week? Why do we want to start the show talking about this game? Why are you there with the Bucks and the Seahawks?

2:19Derrik Klassen: Well, I think both of these teams are, they're like the undercard contenders. I view both of these teams as like, and rightfully so, their fan bases are like, hey, look at us. Look at what we're doing. We're a good team. Nobody's really talking about us, particularly Seattle, right? Because I think the Bucks just had an opportunity to go against the Eagles. I think the Bucs have been in the limelight a little bit more. They're also a perennial playoff team, so they kind of come with that cachet. The Seahawks have started the season about as well as you could possibly ask for. I mean, they're a Brock Purdy miracle drive from being 4-0.

2:53Derrik Klassen: Defense is freaking incredible. Sam Darnold is shutting a lot of people up with what he's doing. Yeah, and if they win this game, by the way, Lumen Field's going to be rocking like the good old days, like the peak of the Pete Carroll days. This is a late window game, a national spotlight game. You're going against a good Tampa team. If they win this game, if they look good, everybody will be talking about them. So I think it's a big opportunity for two, what I view as really good teams, to make a statement about belonging in a higher category,

3:27Robert Mays: the way they're viewed. The way that you framed it, these are the undercard contenders. For me, this feels like the fringe teams at the table, Derek. We put the Bucs at the last seat at the table last week. We had to pick a team by the end of Sunday night, even though the Bucs lost and the Seahawks won on Thursday night, we still felt more comfortable, like you said, because the Bucs are a little bit more established, making them the 10th seat at the table. I wonder by the end of that game on Sunday, Derek, are we going to feel like absolute morons for including the Bucs and not the Seahawks in that conversation?

3:55Dave Helman: I don't think so. Cause to me, I still think the Bucs, unless they get blown out, which I guess the Seahawks technically have shown the capacity to do that to an NFC South team, even though that same seems obviously worse. I still feel like going into the season we all thought the Bucs would be like you know we only did 10 teams if we did 12 I think we all would have agreed that they would have been in the 12 and like I still probably am going to feel that way about the Bucs almost regardless of how this game goes this to me I think could say more about the Seahawks just about like how real is this offense really they're going to get a much different test with like seeing the Todd Bowles defense a guy that one is their defense is better than last year they've defended the run really well which the Seahawks run game has been better but still a bit of an issue for them and I also think They pose a particular matchup problem in the sense that Seattle's offensive line is better, but they're still physically a weak unit.

4:43Dave Helman: And this Bucs front wants to punch the hell out of you. And so I still think that that could be a little bit of an issue. So this to me, unless they get blown out, won't say that much for me about the Bucs. But it could make me start to buy some of the Seahawks, especially the offensive stuff.

4:56Robert Mays: Let's start with that Seahawks offense, because I think you can make an argument that through the first four weeks of the season, they're one of the more surprising units in the entire league. I remember sitting there at the VMAC facility in Renton, Washington in late July with Michael Sean Dugar in a little side room when we were recording the podcast. And I said, I think the Seattle offense has one of the widest range of outcomes of any unit in the league. If you told me by the end of the year, they were the ninth best offense in the league, I might be a little surprised, but I could buy it, right?

5:24Robert Mays: Like I could see the outcome where that happens. If you told me they were the 27th best offense in the league, I could also buy that. And they have been one of the better units in football through the first four weeks. Me and Ali Connelly broke this down on the show yesterday when we talked about five newish offenses with new offensive coordinators. Seahawks are ninth in EPA per dropback so far this year. They are second in dropback success rate and sixth in overall offensive DVOA. So Derek, if we're trying to pin down and trying to figure out why the Seahawks have been such a pleasant surprise over the first month of the season, where does that conversation start with you?

5:56Dave Helman: For me, it comes down to a couple of things with the Seahawks. First of all, I think we all knew the formula with Sam Darnold is like, this is not a guy you want throwing 40 times a game and have to win you the game that way. And they've done a generally good job of not asking him to do that. The run game has been slightly better. And that's not really the reason that's been the case. The reason that's been the case is the defense is maybe the best in football and has really helped them, you know, not feel like they have to throw themselves into a lot of games. So I think that that has helped.

6:20Dave Helman: I think also the construction of it has also been pretty good. Like they, Sam Darnold can throw every area of the field, but I think to get the most out of him, you want to have him throwing a lot of those like dig and rap routes over the middle of the field and you want to have him throwing down the field off of play action shots and I think obviously we saw the first couple of weeks last year that Kubiak can scheme up some of the downfield stuff and he's even done a little bit of that this year like even this last game they played they get Torrey Horton open down the field he just can't make that catch against Bo Melton so they've been able to scheme up some of that stuff for him and then even just the little ways that if they want to run like a dig route they'll have uh the slot receiver from the other side just run like eight yards up the field and break out just to like hold the weak hook defender away from that window so that Sam Darnold can make those throws.

7:03Dave Helman: So I think all of that's looked good. And then every pass catcher has probably been the best version of himself. Like JSN is now a top 10 receiver. AJ Barner looks like a really solid tight end. Like, I think we all knew that he would be nice, but I think he's leveled up. Torrey Horton has been, you know, fifth round rookie coming off of an injury. How good is he going to be? He's been a useful piece for them, especially down the field. So it just feels like they are mostly getting best case scenario for just about everything right now.

7:29Derrik Klassen: And I think the other thing that's worth mentioning is, at least to this point, the unit that gets harped on more than anything else in Seattle and the thing that has caused so much angst for so long in Seattle, the offensive line, looks pretty good. And I remember thinking when they drafted Gray Zabel, I was like, I like this. Is it going to be enough? And I think maybe what I didn't give enough credit to is when they've been healthy, Charles Cross and Abe Lucas have been pretty good players and they're healthy. They're healthy. They're playing well. And Gray's Abel's also awesome. So when all of those three things are hitting, this is even if it's not the best offensive line in football, this is a far better version or a far better unit than what I think a lot of Seahawks teams has had in recent memory.

8:16Derrik Klassen: So you combine that with getting good stuff from the skill players and obviously getting everything you could have hoped for from Sam Darnold, it looks pretty damn good.

8:25Robert Mays: Derek and I did an exercise this summer where we ranked the supporting cast in each conference, and both of us had the Seahawks at the bottom of the NFC, either as the worst team or in the bottom tier of teams. And I think a lot of that, Derek, was just driven by uncertainty. You said, how many question marks were there in what you were just laying out with a Seahawks offensive personnel? All of those things have come up heads in a positive way for the Seahawks, almost every single one of them. And so all of those uncertainties have turned into defined positives for them over the first month. And I think the offensive line point is a great one.

8:54Robert Mays: The tackles have played well. Gray's Abel's played well in pass protection. And I think Jalen Sundell is a very good, like modern limited center, right? Like a guy who's not a dude, but he plays with really good awareness. And so when you see teams blitzing stunts, things like that, he's always looking for work. He's been a defined positive as like a greater than the sum of the parts sort of center in the middle of that whole thing. And then the construction of this is just so much better than I think anybody ever could have hoped. One of those uncertainties was Clint Kubiak. Like we saw him in New Orleans last year.

9:25Robert Mays: They had a couple of really good games. Things fell off when they got really hurt. Okay. So what does he look like in this go around with the Seattle personnel? Derek, in my mind, he's been like one of the best play callers in the league through the first four weeks of the season. Like the structure of the Seattle offense. We talked a little bit about this on Thursday night. I just love the architecture of it. The ways that they're trying to dictate the defenses are doing it two different ways. One, they are dead last in the NFL in the amount of 11 personnel that they are using, 31 % of their plays.

9:53Robert Mays: And so that is a way to help dictate the defenses, right? We're going to put you in heavier bodies. We're going to try to throw the ball off play action. And the other thing they're doing is on the complete other end of the spectrum, they also are using a ton of empty and they've been extremely efficient on those plays. They're fourth in the league in empty dropbacks per true media and fifth in EPA per dropback during about six times a game. And even when they're not in true empty looks, they're using a ton of those bumper motions with the running back in the same way that the Niners used to do with McCaffrey.

10:19Robert Mays: And that just creates a ton of horizontal stretch within the offense. So you have these two ways that you're doing a great job of dictating how the looks you're going to get from defenses. So you combine all of that with a quarterback who is just playing really, really incredibly good football. To me, the biggest thing that jumps out, the decision-making has gotten better. We've talked a little bit about that on Thursday, the accuracy has been wild. Like to all levels of the field, they have 13 passes of at least 20 air yards this year. The Seattle Seahawks do 12 of those were on target. The one that wasn't, he was getting destroyed as he let the ball go.

10:55Robert Mays: They've completed eight of those, eight of those 13, 20 yard passes, 61 and a half percent of those plays have gone for explosives and it has helped make them the most explosive offense in football. And so all of that stuff is coming together to kind of create a unit that has surprised us on a bunch of different levels.

11:11Derrik Klassen: I looked up and I love being on the same track as you because I just went through. I wanted to see Sam Darnold against the Blitz. And I went like if we're looking for criticisms of him, he hasn't been awesome against like under pressure this year, like when teams have gotten to him to 29 percent success rate passer rating of 67. Like if you can pressure him, it hasn't always looked good. but he's doing a phenomenal job getting himself out of trouble. He has 13 explosive completions against the blitz this year. And quite a few of those are when he's on some like Josh Allen stuff where he like gets out of the grasp of a defender or like stiff arms, a guy in a pocket, like not the sort of plays that I associate with Sam Darnold anyway, but his, his coolness when that does happen and the ability to stay looking downfield for an option, it's led to a lot of really big, really fun moments for this offense.

12:05Dave Helman: I actually think that's what makes the Sam Darnold thing interesting is he. Oh, I think he always had the accuracy and he always had that ability to do stuff outside of the pocket. It's just that he always played a little bit late. His decision making was erratic. He didn't see it as well. And so you only got the good stuff like 10 percent of the time. But I think now that the structure is better, he's seen a lot more NFL football. You're getting a lot more of that that stuff a lot more consistently to go back really quickly to the construction of it the empty thing I think is really important because I think one it's it's sharp on Kubiak's side because I think they do that a lot especially like on third downs even on a lot of third and shorts because they're like we're not a punch you in the mouth on third and two run team so let's give Sam Darnold the ball spread it out and hope that he can get us a few yards so they've done some really interesting stuff there and in this game specifically teams don't really play empty against the Bucs because if you do Todd Bowles is going to throw five or six guys that you and make you make the right throw.

13:01Dave Helman: And I think Sam Darnold for the most part has done that this year, but I think this is an interesting, like kind of styles make fights thing where it's a team that wants to be an empty versus a defense. You don't necessarily want to be an empty in. And so how's that matchup going to go?

13:13Robert Mays: Well, I think there are two different ways to look at that. A lot of teams have empty check. A lot of blitz heavy teams have empty checks where if you're going empty, we're going to zero you or we're going to heat you up at the same time. If you go empty, you probably know where those guys are coming from if they're having to come from depth. And so if you're not afraid of it, it actually could be a way to kind of put that defense in a bind. And so I think that's a really interesting aspect of this. And I think the, against the blitz, there are two things that stand out to me. I went back and watched all those blitz dropbacks this morning.

13:38Robert Mays: You and I mind melt in terms of how we prefer this. And two things jumped out to me. One, Charbonnet is really good in pass protection. And he has been a defined positive when they have sent extra bodies at the quarterback. And I think that Sam has done a good job, even when things weren't going to be picked up with just the numbers, he's knowing where to beat the blitz the ball is going to the right place on time often enough where he's not getting got on some of those plays and so I think that absolutely is kind of at the centerpiece of this matchup specifically Derek anything about the Bucks defense personnel wise that you have in front of mind when it comes to this game yeah I would say a couple of things

14:14Dave Helman: the front is very like the run game could go a couple of different ways in this game because I think up front like just the defensive line it's a really good matchup for the Bucks because uh vitavea is incredible yaya diaby is a really tough player redick i think has been solid against the run these are players that i think can handle what what seattle has in terms of the run game because the pass protection has been good but the run blocking is still a little bit up and down to me especially along the interior um so i expect the bucks to kind of win there and the bucks linebackers which i'll talk about in a minute they are good moving downhill between the tackles um and so in the run game they've been good there the issue i have with the bucks a little bit is you can kind of get the corners being a little bit.

14:53Dave Helman: I don't love their eyes when they're having to be like the perimeter run defenders. And so if Seattle wants to run to the edge the way that they did a lot last week against Arizona, if you notice a lot of the big plays that they got in that game, they were attacking Max Melton and he was over pursuing like three or four different times where they got those big pop runs. And there's a chance that you can get guys like Zion McCollum and stuff on that. And so I would say that for the run game. And then in the past game, these Bucs linebackers are very, very gettable, especially Servossier Dennis.

15:22Dave Helman: And so I would expect an offense that already wants to throw there to find a couple of ways to do that.

15:27Robert Mays: Let's get to the other side of the ball. Derek, this is a matchup that you're particularly excited about. When we were talking about this earlier today, like this was getting you going. So why is the Bucs offense against the Seattle defense particularly intriguing to you?

15:40Dave Helman: I mean, to me, outside of like, you know, Super Bowl hopeful versus Super Bowl hopeful, This is about as good as a unit versus unit matchup that you can get, especially like in terms of the construction of it, because Mike McDonald at this stage in his career, it almost goes like you don't have to say a whole lot. He has done such a phenomenal job of understanding how to put together his defense and getting the most out of all these players like Leonard Williams continues to play some of his best ball because of the way that they use him. All of their edge guys like Derek Hall has leveled up because of the way that they use him.

16:09Dave Helman: Julian Love. I think we talked about coming into the season of being like he's the perfect glue guy for a defense like this. But I think even he is leveled up because of what he's been able to do in this defense. And so that side of the ball is incredible. And then I have not seen that much of a like drop off in terms of play calling and construction from Grisard, obviously replacing Liam Cohen last year. And the efficiency doesn't look the same because a million offensive line injuries. They're missing Mike Evans now. They missed Chris Godwin for the early parts of the season. So personnel has hurt them.

16:37Dave Helman: but in terms of the way it's constructed their run game is still awesome they're still getting guys moving and open in the passing game and Baker Mayfield is still very willing to make a lot of those aggressive downfield throws and so I think just in terms of the x's and o's on the chalkboard this is about as cool as it gets for an NFL Sunday the Seahawks defense has been based on any metric

16:58Robert Mays: you want to look at one of the best defenses in the league they're number one in defensive DVOA through four weeks again normal caveat we're a month in this season all this comes with like a huge lump of salt, but these are where the numbers stand. Top 10 in success rate and EPA play for true media. I think in a lot of ways, Mike McDonald has been at the forefront of what modern defense looks like in the NFL over the last three or four years. And this version of the Seahawks has in a lot of ways like solved for what modern defense has to be. Last year, the Seahawks' biggest issue over the first half of the season is they could not defend the run in light boxes.

17:31Robert Mays: To save their lives. They were getting absolutely stomped on every single time they wanted to play too high on early downs. This year, they've been excellent defending the run on early downs out of light boxes. They're eighth in run defense success rate, again, with light boxes, according to NextGen, fifth in EPA per carry. They play light boxes at a top five rate. They've allowed a 32.5 % rushing success rate in too high looks. Even in the back half of last year, where it was better than it was early in the season, that was 40.5%. So they're significantly better there. So they're stopping the run out of those looks, and then they're playing more too high coverages than any team in the league in terms of like pre-snap structure.

18:08Robert Mays: Here are the percentages of coverages for the Seahawks on early downs, zone coverages. 18 % cover two, 23 % cover three, 21 % cover four, 23 % cover six. So essentially 20 % each of those four zone coverages. You combine that with really no weaknesses personnel wise. And when you watch them play, the pattern recognition, the understanding of how to match certain routes in those zone coverages, So we've got really good personnel, really good structure, and really good detailed coaching. That's kind of all you need to turn into the best defense in the league, which they arguably have been over the first four weeks.

18:46Derrik Klassen: It's a really funny thought exercise because, and like with all due respect to what Leonard Williams and Devin Witherspoon, like they've got some really, really good players. But talent-wise, like there's not a Miles Garrett on this defense. but you offset that if you can go 14 deep of just good football players like you're not really supposed to be able to do that in the nfl demarcus lawrence is hurt right now derrick hall is going

19:13Robert Mays: to get the demarcus lawrence snaps derrick hall is an objectively good player like that's where the seahawks are from a personnel perspective josh job is probably the guy we were most worried about coming into the year derrick josh job has played like really good football i would argue he's been better than tarik woolen is like one of their outside corners he has been and i think he's like

19:30Dave Helman: when you talk about them playing so much zone coverage and really playing a rolodex and so if you're going to be a zone coverage corner in in that type of defense you really have to have good eyes and technique that's exactly what he does like job isn't the most dominating athlete but his technique and understanding how he can get physical with guys without having to you know drawing penalties and knowing when to click and close on stuff and you can tell that his film study is good just based on how he anticipates routes like he job has just been a kind of like defines how the defense plays kind of player just in terms of how put together and how smart that

20:02Derrik Klassen: he plays his position here's my favorite stat i came up with looking at the seahawks this week they are the only defense in the league that's top five in total pressures and they're doing it without a single guy in the top 20 like you look at the other teams that do this denver denver has benito and cooper uh green bay has parsons houston has anderson and hunter tampa's up there too they blitz the shit out of everybody. Plus they have Redick among other guys. Seattle has seven players with eight or more pressures this season. So their best guy is Byron Murphy right now. He's 30th. But they've got seven with eight or more pressures.

20:41Derrik Klassen: I couldn't find another defense that has more than five.

20:43Robert Mays: I love also love when you watch them now. Great defenses like have real attitude about them. Like they have real like f*** you energy about them. Just oozes out of them. There was a two play stretch in the game against Arizona last week. Boya Mafé, they throw a screen his way and he like Mutombo rejects it into the ground, like just like very casually did it. On the next play, Tariq Wollin runs the inbreaker for Marvin Harrison, who stops his route. And when the ball is in midair, Tariq Wollin points to Julian Love knowing he's going to pick the ball off. And it's like you start to feel that with these defenses and they're really starting to have that sort of vibe to them.

21:20Robert Mays: Derek, let's put a bow on this. If you are the Bucs in this game, given your current personnel limitations with some of those receivers hurt, you're still missing two starters along the offensive line. What is your approach if you're Josh Grisard against the Seahawks defense?

21:33Dave Helman: Yeah, I think it's it is really hard to circle players on this defense that you would want to attack because even the ones you do circle are still probably pretty good. One of them would would be Tariq Willen, obviously an incredible athlete. but I think that there are times that especially receivers who are a little bit more of like delicate and really put together route runners can really put him in the spin zone. And I do think the Bucks have a couple of guys who can do that, even with some of their injuries. I would say the other thing is you mentioned Byron Murphy has one of their best pass rush rates.

22:00Dave Helman: Some of that comes at the cost of him being a little bit of like bull in a China shop, like he will kind of just shoot and his eyes or it can be a little bit up and down. And so I think if they want to trap him a little bit, get some movement around him and try to get a couple of their explosives that way, that could be a way to do it. Obviously, Bucs are still banged up along the offensive line, so easier said than done, but I do think that that's a potential avenue for them.

22:23Robert Mays: Just a quick check-in for the Seahawks injury specifically. Demarcus Lawrence is not practicing. He's likely going to miss this game. Weatherspoon and Julian Love seems like maintenance they should play, and they get Nick Emmanwari back. He really just played a few snaps in that first game before he was suffering the high ankle sprain. on the Bucs side of it, Mike Evans already out. Bucky Irving very likely not going to play. And the other offensive thing to think about, Sterling Shepard not practicing. Sterling Shepard's done like at least one thing a game for this Bucs offense. So that is notable, even though he's like the fourth or fifth guy down that wide receiver depth chart.

22:53Robert Mays: Build the whole plan out of Ibuka. It's fine. Let's get to the next one here. Chargers and Commanders. The Chargers are two and a half point favorites. I think it's pretty easy to land on why this is one of the games of the week. These were the two teams that kind of came out of nowhere to make the playoffs last year. The two teams that really snuck up on people in the AFC and the NFC, respectively. They went about their off seasons in very different ways. Obviously, Washington was particularly aggressive. You go out and you trade for Debo Samuel. You go out and trade for Laramie Tunsell. This is a team that I think was really trying to microwave their window a little bit and compete right away.

23:27Robert Mays: The Chargers, less so. Much more deliberate in the money that they spent, the resources that they spent, the way that they tried to add talent to the roster. I think Derek this is just a really good chance five weeks into the season here to check in about what the follow-up act looks like for both Washington and the Chargers it is and I think

23:45Dave Helman: heading into this game we have very different answers for what that's looked like right like for in my opinion for the Chargers three weeks into the season the answer the answer was that they have definitively made good on the overachievement that they did last year and like prove that they are one of those teams like the defense has been as good as any in the league Justin Herbert was playing some of the best ball of any quarterback in the NFL. And even though we already knew the offensive line was going to be an issue, you saw other skill players on the offense step up like Hampton's been good.

24:10Dave Helman: Quinn Johnson stepping up like you could see where this would all come together. Then last week you lose Joe Alt, you lose to the Giants. It's a tough game that starts to be like, OK, I think there's still a good team. But now a lot of things are going wrong for them. And then with Washington, because Jaden Daniels only played two games, one of them was that the primetime game against the Packers where they got shredded. And then he just hasn't played since then. They feel a lot, a lot more to be determined. Like, I just don't know if they're the team that they wanted to be coming into the season yet.

24:40Derrik Klassen: Do you think it's fair to say? I feel like the commanders are one of those teams that I, I still, I don't feel like I know anything about them. Like a month into the season, this happens sometimes, but like you get your butt kicked on Thursday night football. You lose Jaden Daniels for two weeks. you managed to go one and one during that stretch, which is an encouraging thing, right? But I just don't feel like we have a complete picture of them after one month just because of mainly because they haven't had their quarterback.

25:08Robert Mays: Well, let's start on the side of the ball that I think we do have a little bit more clarity on because they haven't been missing the quarterback there. And that's their defense going against the Chargers offense. Derek, coming into this season, you still had your concerns about Washington's defensive personnel. This was a group that was already old and somehow I think got older heading into this season in year two. Four games in, where have you, where do you sit right now

25:31Dave Helman: with Dan Quinn and Joe Witt's defense? So I would say going into the season, I had some reason to be concerned for all three levels of the defense. And I would say in the back two layers, I still have a lot of those concerns, which we'll talk about in a moment. But I do think the front has been better than I thought. Like, I think Javon Kinlaw has been solid for them. Von Miller has given them something in terms of being somebody who can get into the backfield, both run and pass. Dorrance Armstrong still looks good. Like this is a unit that I think the front and the pass rush, even on some gotta have it downs, has actually been pretty good and better than I thought.

26:02Dave Helman: And so that has given them some way to survive in some of these games. But I think most of the concerns that we had about the back seven have mostly rung true. Like this is a team that I think in their heart of hearts wants to be a man coverage. We let our corners run with people type of team. but Marshawn Lattimore I think at this stage in his career doesn't really let you do that as comfortably as they would like so they've turned into more of a zone team but that puts a lot more stress on your linebackers your safeties and now your other rookie outside corner Trey Amos to be more of a zone we got to communicate type of team and I think especially last week you saw them struggle with that I mean on the first drive you saw the Falcons motion a player out to the right hand side and him in the down safety are rotating trying to communicate who's covering who and Trey Amos just like doesn't get any depth and just lets the guy run right by him.

26:48Dave Helman: It's just stuff like that. They clearly feel like they're not the team that they want to be buttoned up wise in the back seven right now.

26:54Robert Mays: Yeah, it was the opening drive for Atlanta. It was Kyle Pitts on like a little corner out and he's just wide open because Amos is hanging on the flat and cover three rather than getting depth. And you saw that a lot. And I think that's jumped out to me when I've gone back and watched Washington, especially last week against Atlanta. The front is a good group. I also think it's worth mentioning. Dorn Thompson playing really good football and Deron Payne's having a little bit of a bounce back here. which I think that's really important to point out because I don't think he played his best ball last year despite somebody who had been rewarded with that type of contract.

27:22Robert Mays: But then you go a little bit further back and we talked about this coming into the season, Derek. I mean, Marshawn Latimer is a guy that has an extreme amount of investment in him. Multiple mid-round draft picks and I think he has a top five cap head among all corners in the NFL and he's really struggled. And I think you see the communication issues really crop up with this team. And it happens a lot when other teams use motion against them. So the numbers are just not very good right now. They've allowed 10 yards per attempt per next-gen stats Washington has on past attempts with motion this year.

27:51Robert Mays: That is dead last in the NFL. Offenses have a 51.3 % success rate when using motion and throwing against the commanders. And you just see that crop up a lot. And so I think that there are some structural issues and some things to work out with some important highly paid players in the back seven. The question, Dave, is whether or not that is going to matter against the current state of the Los Angeles Chargers offensive line.

28:15Derrik Klassen: The strength of the Chargers offensive line coming into this game could be Trey Pipkins and Bradley Bozeman. Like that could be the selling point. That's tough. It's not great. It's really not great. That's a flippant remark, but it's interesting to see how this is going to age because obviously the Chargers offensive line was like a non-starter when Joe Allt went out against the Giants. And like it, Herbert looked hopeless because that's how quickly those guys were getting pressure. My question is, and Dorrance Armstrong's a really good player. He's, he's top 20 in pressures. He's got three sacks.

28:48Derrik Klassen: He's playing good football. The front, like Derek said, has been, has been nice. Is it the giants? Like Abdul Carter looks like a demon. You got Brian Burns, you got Dexter Lawrence, like can the, can the commanders make it look that easy against these guys? Or is it a little bit harder? Is there a little more time for Justin Herbert? Given a week to deal with this rather than losing all one or two series into the game, can the Chargers scheme around that? Because I did see the, without using the blitz against Atlanta last year, the commanders generated three pressures last week. Last week. Yeah.

29:24Derrik Klassen: So this is not the fire breathing unit that the Giants are, or at least I don't think they are.

29:31Robert Mays: Just in terms of pure pass rush talent, I think that's fair. Purely from a pass rush perspective.

29:34Derrik Klassen: So I'm curious to see. Like it's, it's easy to look at what the chargers are up front right now. I mean, Austin Dekulis stepped in for Joe Walt and allowed six pressures and three hits in less than a full game. It's not ideal, but again, given a week and against what I view as a step down, can it look better? I think it's tempting to say that Herbert's going to get hit 15 times a week, but for the rest of time until Joe Walt comes back. But the NFL coaches and players are typically better than that. I think it'll look better this week than it did against the Giants.

30:07Robert Mays: One other thing, one other area where it does feel like the Chargers can tap into this because other teams have. And Derek, I think this speaks to what you said earlier about some of the limitations on the second level of this Washington defense. Frankie Louvoo and Bobby Wagner, when those guys are coming downhill between the tackles, they are still hellacious. Right now, if you get them moving side to side, you can pick on them a little bit. Washington this year, and you saw this a bunch against Atlanta, they are bottom five, according to next gen stats in EPA per rush and success rate on outside runs.

30:36Robert Mays: And you combine that with teams really being able to get after this team and the linebackers specifically in the passing game, like that 65 yard, 70 yard completion to Bijan. Like they're trying to have Bobby Wagner run with that little rail route off of mesh with Bijan Robinson. That's not going to go very well. And so trying to get O'Marrion Hampton on the edge and away from all those offensive line injuries and into space, that feels like one more thing that the Chargers could try to pick on a little bit.

31:03Dave Helman: It absolutely should be like, again, when you're using those guys as bowling balls, you know, between the numbers. Great. They can go down and they can go hit people with them being like on outside zone, flowing over the top of stuff and making sure that they can get to the perimeter. That's just not really what they do anymore. Like Wagner to me just doesn't have the speed for it. And then Lou Vu, I think athletically can do it. But every now and then, you know, he's a guy who wants to guess and he wants to like undercut stuff. And he's going to kind of give you some issues there. And then in coverage, I think you see a lot of the same stuff.

31:30Dave Helman: It's weird to talk about Bobby Wagner in this way, even though it's been true for a few years now when, you know, at his best, he was the best coverage linebacker in the NFL. But now I think at this stage, he's very much a guy who can really only play what's in front of him. and even then there was a play last week against the Falcons where Pitts just races across his face and beats him and is able to go pick up a first down when he probably shouldn't have based on the angle of where Wagner was sitting you know kind of before the throw so this is very much a unit that if you can get the linebackers running you're probably going to have a good day as an

31:59Robert Mays: offense we mentioned that without Jaden Daniels kind of TBD about Washington's offense overall but they still have a lot of pop in the run game Derek and this is a Chargers defense that you and get after a little bit on the ground. What are kind of the one or two things you're looking for with Washington's run game against the Chargers on Sunday?

32:17Dave Helman: They've just, Cliff's run game is cool, man. Like this has always been the case with him, even back in Arizona when he was frustrating. But like he just, he comes up with a lot of very interesting designery stuff and just like one-off plays. And I think you even saw that against the Falcons last week. There was a two-play sequence in the middle of the third quarter that I thought was insane. So the first one, they come out in a jumbo set. So extra offensive lineman, they put him to the right hand side with the tight end. They're to the right. The running back is to the left. They pull the play side guard and the tight end to the left for a counter look.

32:51Dave Helman: And the running back loops behind the quarterback and then goes back to the left for the counter. Just like very weird backfield action that I thought was cool. And then on the very next play, they get under center to run this jet sweep. That was more like a GT counter leading in front of the sweep. like they just do the way that they will pull and move people and really make your linebackers and second level fitters think is pretty unique and I know that obviously Jaden Daniels makes that better but even if it's not Jaden Daniels we've seen that Marcus Mariota can be part of that too and so they've just the way that they piece together this run game with the gun stuff with some of the jet sweep stuff is just it's it's pretty unique and I think it's going to pose a challenge to a Chargers run defense that is as we saw last week pretty gettable even against like not the best run rushing offenses yeah so so far this season the chargers are a bottom 10

33:39Robert Mays: defense in terms of rushing success rate and they're right there in terms of epa per carry again normal caveats about four games apply but so far you have been able to run on this team if you have tried to so it's something to keep in mind all right before we get to a few more games from this week's slate let's take our first quick break each week we like to pick a handful of games It's usually three. It's not always three, but it's often three. That we pick one thing from that game that we wanted to focus on. Dave, let's kick it off with the Patriots and the Bills on Sunday Night Football.

34:11Derrik Klassen: I am so geeked about this game and this opportunity. It's like for those of us that are old enough, because that's how old we're getting, that it's receding into the past a little bit. But like, imagine thinking like, you know who needs some primetime love? The New England Patriots. You know who needs to play in a big game? New England. But here they are. They are cannonballing into the national consciousness of the NFL. They've been at noon all four weeks of this season. The Patriots have played at noon 16 times in the 21 possible games since they drafted Drake May. Obviously, Drake didn't take over until midway through last season.

34:52Derrik Klassen: But one Thursday night game in which he was not the starter, that's the extent of it when it comes to like major primetime windows for New England. I think I think they played Buffalo actually last year in like a three thirty kickoff. But this is it when you're talking about like the national audience getting a look at the New England Patriots. And I thought that was a little bit surprising because since Sunday night football became the tentpole game, you can typically count on it being two playoff teams from the year before MVP caliber quarterbacks like wherever Aaron Rodgers winds up. You know, he's going to be on Sunday night football every three weeks.

35:30Derrik Klassen: And the Cowboys. And of course, and of course, the Cowboys. so to put a New England team that has not proven they are worthy of this sort of stage on Sunday Night Football I'm not going to call it a gamble because people are going to watch football regardless but it has serious potential to fall flat like if the Patriots just aren't ready for this or if the Bills are just that good I mean they are at home they are a seven and a half point favorite as as Beller pointed out during our production meeting that's a pretty big line for a Sunday night football game. So, yeah, man, I'm pumped for this.

36:03Derrik Klassen: And the Bills, for that matter, they opened on Sunday night football, and they have been as below the radar as the reigning MVP's team could be ever since. They're undefeated, yeah. Yeah, they're 4-0. They beat the Jets, they played on Thursday night, and they played the Saints. They have been flying under the radar, so now we get to check back in with them. It is a very fun game for a lot of reasons.

36:25Robert Mays: It has happened under the anonymity of noon games on Sundays, but Drake May has been very good so far this year. I'm sure a lot of people, the only thing they saw was a couple highlights in a positive way, and then that red zone pick he threw against the Steelers because they were watching red zone all day. Derek, I'm going to let you have the floor here a little bit and really dig into the Drake May propaganda, but this team is fifth in dropback success rate. They are fifth in EPA per drop back. And so much about this offense has been really exciting and really pleasing over the first four weeks.

36:58Robert Mays: Me and Ali dug into it in a big way on yesterday's show, if you guys want to go check that out. But what about Drake May specifically and this New England passing game? Have you been encouraged by over the first month?

37:08Dave Helman: I mean, he's just I think what has really stood out to me is that he's made good on being a very high success rate player, which I think coming into the league, a lot of people were concerned about like maybe a little bit of a wild horse quarterback was going to do a lot of stupid stuff and this was going to be a process for him but I think even as a rookie last year he proved pretty immediately like relative to the talent he was working with he could put together a good down-to-down offense and so I think with some of the leveling up of the offensive line different play caller getting in there a little bit more help at receiver the fact that he's taken that from nice job with the guys that you have to like putting himself clearly in the top five top six among NFL offenses has been really impressive and then to me I think outside of the clear moments at the ends of games for the most part he has done a really good job of not putting the ball in danger obviously he has he has the strip sack at the end of the Steelers game but for the most part he's done a good job of balls getting out on time he's not holding on to it and taking dirty sacks he's not really putting the ball into that much danger like he's just already done a better job of towing the line between how can I get some of the explosive stuff every now and then and the offense I think has done a better job of facilitating that than last year's and obviously that the new talent helps finding Stefan Diggs I think down the field has helped a little bit but he's just he's such a put-together player for someone who is so immensely talented that it's hard not to get incredibly excited about not only what he's going to do this year but for the next couple of years he's taking so many completions that are

38:38Robert Mays: there to be had and that's really encouraging to watch I mentioned it yesterday but there was a two-play stretch in the game that they played against Carolina, I think it was, where it was a third and six in plus territory. He takes a check down to Ramondre Stevenson for three yards to put them in a fourth and go situation. So just a right play on time, plays within himself. Let's live to play another down. It's fourth and three. He throws a missile on a deep back shoulder comeback to Stephon Diggs for like a 30-yard gain. The explosive plays are going to happen because of what he is. Like that is going to come.

39:12Robert Mays: As long as he's playing within himself and not trying to do too much in all of those other situations, that's what's really encouraging. And he's doing that so far. And you combine that with an offense that is really setting him up for success. Obviously the personnel is considerably better. They still got some issues in pass protection every once in a while. They're not running the ball very well, but it's night and day in terms of what's going on up front in pass pro this year compared to what it was last year. And then just the basic structure of the offense. It's nothing crazy, right? Kind of reminds me a little bit of the conversations we would have about the Broncos last year, where it's not all these bells and whistles and all this motion, but it's all very well put together.

39:48Robert Mays: They're creating subtle matchups. And the one schematic thing that I just think this is perfect for the type of quarterback that you have over the last three weeks, this team leads the league in the percentage of their dropbacks that involved the design rollout. It's like 15 % of overall plays. And so you're using him in play action and getting him on the move. And essentially what's going to happen on those plays is he's either going to find an easy completion, an explosive completion, or he's going to take off and run on those 15 plays that they've rolled him out over the last three weeks. He's only thrown the ball eight times, but they have like an 80 % success rate on those plays.

40:24Derrik Klassen: It's a great thing to do with a guy of his skillset.

40:26Robert Mays: Exactly. And so I just think when you watch the offense, it all just kind of makes sense. And you combine it with a quarterback who is playing some really good football right now. So again, he's done it under the darkness of noon games with everything else going on. And now he has a spotlight to kind of show people what this has felt like.

40:41Derrik Klassen: But the fun thing too is, and Sean McDermott will have something to say about this. I got to allow for the likelihood even possibility, like he'll have something for a young quarterback And Matt Milano and Ed Oliver, it sounds like they're going to be back. So I think this will be a different version of the Bills than what we've seen since the opener. But the version we've seen since the opener can be had. Like this is this this billy like the thing about the Bills that should intimidate you is clearly the offense. Like this defense, they are they are 19th in rushing success rate. They've had a huge problem with it.

41:16Derrik Klassen: I loved this. If you take out the 10 explosive runs they gave up to Baltimore, they're still fifth worst in the league in explosive runs allowed.

41:25Robert Mays: That's tough. And this has been a multi-year problem. We've talked about it a lot, Derek.

41:30Derrik Klassen: Cornerback two, Trey White. Honestly, the stats aren't bad, but I just think that's a spot where you can win. You had two flags against New Orleans. New Orleans moved the ball shockingly well. And then the box score doesn't say that, but just watching it back and seeing some of the throws Spencer Rattler left out there, I came away from it thinking like, yes, you can take advantage of this Bills defense in a variety of different ways. And I think that's true. But like I said, I think they will get some reinforcements this week. So it is just a wonderful test to see how much of this early season Drake May hype is real.

42:08Robert Mays: And you could still make an argument that this is the best defense that Drake May will have played so far this year. Right? The Steelers, if you look at the numbers, are much better after last week and what they did to Carson Wentz. But before that, I think the Steelers, the Raiders, the Dolphins and the Panthers, even with all the Bills struggles with getting those two guys back, you could make a really solid argument. This might be the best defense still that he has played so far this season.

42:33Dave Helman: It definitely is. The him being like top five, top six and success rate is impressive, but it's also that's a schedule thing. I think the goal still is like, can we settle in at like 11th by the end of the year, which would be huge success for them. And this is going to be a defense that I think will test whether or not they can.

42:49Robert Mays: Let's get to our next game here. The Chiefs and the Jags is such a great Monday night game. They Monday night games where it looks like nothing on paper in August. And then you have one of these teams overperform expectations and now suddenly becomes like this game. That's worth watching on Monday night because we're watching them all anyway. It's perfect. So I'm very excited about this one. Derek, what is the one thing you are looking for in Chiefs Jags?

43:11Dave Helman: I've still got my eyes on like what is the lean the Liam Cohen offense like I think so far the returns have been awesome uh in a number of ways and so I would say I want to start with the the passing game a little bit and what they've done with Trevor Lawrence last year the only person that threw the ball down the field further than Trevor Lawrence was Anthony Richardson who was like not playing a serious uh form of quarterback and so I think last year the offense felt very up and down because of that this year it's been total opposite I think right now Trevor Lawrence's average depth of target is like 7.2 yards which is the shortest of his career and I think like around almost a full yard shorter than he's ever thrown like he is they have really turned him into a quick game passer and some of that is like getting into some spread looks and being like true west coast drop back stuff but it's also been a lot of like rollouts and having a lot of like shallow routes and a lot of just like quick boom get the ball out on some of the simple stuff so I think they've done a good job of generating yards after the catch in that way for him and then the run game and the screen game has been pretty much what you would have wanted out of Liam Cohen and not even just from a construction standpoint but like the interior of the offensive line is playing way better than I thought that they would play and I think that that's gone a long way for them so I'm just excited to see what a lot of this looks like against Spags because Liam Cohen I think has already proven that he can adapt the offense where he needs to first three weeks they were throwing a lot over the middle of the field last week you see Fred Warner don't want to do that we're going to throw a lot of free access stuff to the outside so I think we've seen Cohen be able to adapt what does that look like against Spags where he's going to throw a lot of stuff at you and a lot of the defenses they've played this year haven't done that so it's going

44:48Robert Mays: to be a much different test they're the least blitz team in the NFL so far this season the Jaguars are I don't think that will be the case on Sunday the the Chiefs have been kind of up and down they blitz less against the Ravens than you might think when you look at the percentages but But a lot of the teams they've played, the Jaguars, Bengals, Niners, Panthers, these are not teams that like to bring a lot of heat. I would assume that we're going to see a little bit more of that from the Chiefs. Maybe that changes. And then the other thing that really was happening a ton, like Derek alluded to against the Niners, is Trevor's taking these free access throws outside the numbers consistently.

45:17Robert Mays: That's just not going to happen against the Chiefs. They play their corners pressed more than any team in the league per next gen. They're going to get up in your face. And so I think it's going to be a different sort of challenge. Derek, I got a question for you before we move on from this. What would you say to me if I told you that after going back and studying this Jags offense over the last four weeks that I'm a little bit frustrated with Trevor Lawrence?

45:39Dave Helman: In what way?

45:42Robert Mays: I just feel like we're kind of realizing the limitations of what he is as a player. And here's why I say that. You mentioned how quickly he's getting the ball out. And that's happening, right? The only guys I think that have a faster time to throw so far this season than Trevor Lawrence are Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. He's getting the ball very quickly. He does a great job of when my first read is there, I can rip these throws. And when it looks good, it looks awesome. There's a play I mentioned earlier this week that I'll bring it up again because I think it's a perfect example. They're playing the Bengals.

46:15Robert Mays: It's the first drive of the game. They got meshed over the ball and then they got on the left side. There's a flat from the running back in a corner and he reads the flat defender. the moment the flat defender doesn't get any depth, he rips the corner route on time. His ability to just fire those intermediate throws, whether it's those corner routes outside the numbers, some of the stuff over the middle of the field, seam balls, things like that. It looks beautiful. That's what he was as a college player at Clemson. Here's my concern with this. He's going to rip those throws whether he should or not.

46:45Robert Mays: If you're going to be one of those guys who lives in the first 2.7 seconds after the ball is snapped as a passer. You need to be an excellent decision maker and you need to play with exceptional accuracy. And I don't feel like he's doing either one of those. And so when it looks good, it looks good. And when it looks bad, you're sitting there thinking, why would you ever decide that that is the right throw to make in that situation? And sometimes you can live with a little bit of that, right? Guys that are a little bit more volatile because they have a volatile play style that adds to benefits on the back end.

47:19Robert Mays: They're scramblers. They hold onto the ball a little bit. They're able to create. That's not really what he is. So as a first two and a half seconds after the ball is snapped quarterback, there are moments where it looks fantastic. And there are moments where he isn't or can't be somebody like Joe Burrow. And so it just leaves me feeling frustrated because the highs are still high, but I still have five, six throws a game where I'm pulling my hair out while

47:43Dave Helman: watching this guy he's not gonna be Joe Burrow like he's I think what is he well what what is wrong with being the 11th best quarterback in the league I don't think this is the 11th best

47:54Robert Mays: quarterback in the league yeah I think he's in that range I think he's in that range I think

47:57Dave Helman: he's not going to be the top eight quarterback that I think we thought he could and I certainly thought that he could but he to me is a top 12 quarterback and so I kind of understand some of the frustrations he does still have one or two sprays a game and I think because he's a line drive throwers, some of his misses can look really frustrating. This is also a Jaguars team that has dropped more passes than any team in the league. And that does not include Brian Thomas stopping his route and getting picked off against whatever, whatever that week two or three game was. And so I think they've been a very frustrating unit in that sense.

48:25Dave Helman: I do think Trevor Lawrence is going to typically be a guy who wants to get to the top of his drop, let the ball rip. I think part of the reason it's looked a little bit more up and down this year, like I think in previous, like at the very best of the Doug Peterson offense, they were actually kind of like this and they were a lot more efficient that way. And he wasn't turning the ball over as much. And the reason being is I think he got more comfortable in that offense. We've seen him in this offense for four weeks. And so I think he's still trying to a little bit learn what can I get away with?

48:52Dave Helman: And obviously it's a very different offense than they ran last year where he was throwing down the field a ton. And so I think there's just a little bit of that. And the other thing that I would say, I know it feels like we continue to make excuses for him. And I've done that a lot over the past handful of years. I think when we look at the nameplate talent on the roster with Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter, it feels like they should be a really good offense. Brian Thomas Jr. has not been that good this year, unless it's purely outside of the numbers. And Travis Hunter is like... What does he need?

49:22Dave Helman: What does he need for us to make a proper evaluation? You're not wrong that he hasn't been that good, but...

49:27Derrik Klassen: How many skill players on the Jags were first-round picks? They're not playing well.

49:34Dave Helman: like brian thomas jr doesn't want to run over the middle of the field travis hunter barely knows what to do on his routes half of the time and i think this all kind of goes back to the fact that why trevor lawrence doesn't want to hold on to the ball i think he wants to see stuff and get it out to guys like brenton strange because i think he trusts them to be in the right spot whereas if you're going to work a little bit later in the progression a lot of that stuff happens over the middle of the field where if somebody's wrong or we're a little bit you know a bit miscommunicated with each other, bad things can happen.

50:03Dave Helman: And I think he is a quarterback who, for better or for worse, can have a little bit less faith in some of his receivers when he gets frustrated with them. Whereas like to a guy like maybe Matthew Stafford's credit, he's going to throw the ball at you no matter what. And so I do think that.

50:17Robert Mays: But he is predominantly one of the most accurate quarterbacks in the league. That's the thing with me. If you're going to be that type of player, you got to be able to put the ball where you want to put it all the time. And he doesn't do that.

50:30Dave Helman: I mean, I agree with that, but like, I just I don't think that he is that like, again, these guys are dropping a lot of. He put one on Parker Washington, by the way, last week into an insanely tight window and he drops that. Like, I just I think he's playing fine football. I get that. I think what keeps happening with Trevor Lawrence is that we're all just frustrated that he's not the top seven guy. And so it's very easy to harp on all of the things that are wrong with him. I still think that he's like a firmly above average quarterback. And we're just frustrated that he's not the elite guy that he could have been.

51:00Dave Helman: He's making$53 million a year. That's the going rate for above average quarterbacks. Like, what are we talking about?

51:06Derrik Klassen: I do. I think he's a, I think he's a pretty good quarterback, but at some point, and I think what's frustrating about it, it's, it's Derek's faith is remarkable because Derek rides this Jags train and I've done it. I've done it too, for a couple of years. Like I picked the Jags to win the division in 2023 and 2024, I think. and so you get a month into 2025 and it's some of the same shit that's been so frustrating for someone that's what's frustrating and every single year and Derek I hear you it is not all his fault there have been issues with drops some of these guys are not playing up to their draft stock but every week you can turn on a Jags game and be like ah Trevor what are we doing and I said it on the recap show like the the bounce of the ball saved Trevor from being the two interception guy against the 49ers instead of vice versa.

51:57Robert Mays: He's trying to give you two or three.

51:59Dave Helman: That's actually the most fair criticism of him. I think the stuff of like, he's getting the ball out too early and he's not that accurate. I think a lot of that stuff is overplayed. My biggest issue with him is that once or twice a game, he gets really tilted and just throws the ball into coverage. Like, I think he gets frustrated by what he's dealing with and throws the ball into coverage. It's not that he throws the ball too quickly.

52:20Robert Mays: It's that he throws the ball too quickly when guys aren't open. He's making the decision before the play has started to unfold. And so on both of those fronts is when he's giving you those two or three plays a game. I can list them off for you. The pick to Horn in the Panthers game, the pick to Dax Hill in the red zone against the Bengals, third and six pick against the Bengals on throw to BTDA. The ball is, and then the near pick to Geno Stone late in that game. He tries to throw another one with like 26 seconds left on the clock against the Bengals late in that game. There are two or three plays a game where he's trying to give it to you.

52:48Robert Mays: And I wouldn't be surprised if he did that again on Monday. Here is the play. I wanted to point this one out specifically because I think this is the one where it really worries me because this is not just about decision making. This is about the way he wants to play and what happens when that can't be realized. Against the Panthers, they have a play in the red zone from the 19-yard line on first and 10 where they're trying to run a wheel to the running back. It's not there. He hangs on it for a beat and a half too long, and then when nothing else is there, he panics in the pocket and he takes an intentional grounding on first and 10 from the 19 yard line.

53:20Robert Mays: It's year five, right? Like, what is the excuse for that? It that those are the moments where it's just like at a certain point, I want the results. Like I want them to happen. I mean, that's fair,

53:32Dave Helman: but I just, I really don't know. I feel like this is still a quarterback who's undergone so much change and like he's going to have frustrated, but that's what I'm saying is that he's going to have frustrating moments like that. And that's what holds him back from being like a top eight guy. But I still don't think any of that stuff precludes him from being in the like, nine to 12 range. All of the guys in that range have something that is frustrating as shit about their game that you just have to live with. I feel like this is the Kyler Murray conversation.

53:57Robert Mays: I feel like we are drifting further and further down the line of the Kyler Murray conversation. Do you think Kyler Murray is the ninth best quarterback in the league right now? Or do you think the Kyler Murray is the 16th best quarterback in the league right now?

54:07Dave Helman: He's probably closer to the 16th, but all of there are so many guys that fumble around in this range for a while. And some at the end of it are going to, by the time they get to like 29 years old, are going to elevate their game and some aren't. And I just have faith that by the time he gets there, Trevor Lawrence will. I guess that's my problem here.

54:22Robert Mays: I'm starting to lose faith. I think part of this is that I feel a little bit burned as somebody who is such an ardent believer, like after the 22 season and even in the 23 season where I thought he was actually playing okay and everything else around him was crumbling. I'm just starting, my patience is starting to wane.

54:37Derrik Klassen: Let me ask y 'all a question. Two up and coming teams that we like for various reasons are playing in the big night games against two of the most consistently excellent teams in the NFL. So Patriots, Bills, Chiefs, Jags. Which team do you trust more not to embarrass you or embarrass themselves in this case? Like, do you trust the Pats more? I think I trust the Pats more right now than I trust the Jags more.

55:04Dave Helman: Yeah, I trust the Patriots more. I trust Drake May right now more than I trust Trevor Lawrence. So do I.

55:08Derrik Klassen: I think that's right, and I don't think that's good. This is where I win no matter what I say.

55:11Dave Helman: I like both of these quarterbacks, so it doesn't matter. Yeah, no, Derek. It's like asking Derek to choose between his children.

55:15Derrik Klassen: Yeah. I think I trust the Pats more than I trust the Jags, which is, I don't love that. It speaks to Drake May's decision-making right now.

55:22Robert Mays: Yes, he's a better quarterback. I can agree with that. And so I think, yeah. And again, the fact that we're on start 20 for Drake May, start 18 for Drake May, and we're on start whatever it is for Trevor Lawrence, that's a little bit frustrating to me. All right, we spent a ton of time on that game. We spent a little bit less time on this one because it's gotten considerably less interesting over the course of the week. My one thing for Texans Raiders or Texans Ravens is can the Ravens win an ugly football game? Can your one thing be who's going to play for the Baltimore Ravens? I think that's important.

55:53Robert Mays: But I think this is a question of if Lamar is not going to play, if Cooper Rush is going to play, your offense is probably going to struggle against the Texans defense. If this is, even with all the injuries, if the Ravens defense can't hold up against this version of the Texans offense, I'm going to start to get really concerned about what this season is going to look like in the long term for the Ravens. And guess what? there's a chance with all those guys out they might not be able to Kyle Hamilton did not practice yesterday Nate Wiggins uh Kyle Van Noy Marlon Humphrey is declared out Roquan Smith is declared out so I guess the bigger question here is like can this be the game where the Texans kind of start putting it together on offense me and Derek re-watched the game for the hangover last week the Texans Titans game I at least appreciate some of the tinkering that the Texans are trying to do on offense starting to move away from some of the 21 personnel stuff they did earlier in the year, trying to play in a little bit more spread out looks, trying to create a little bit more space in the run game.

56:48Robert Mays: Woody Marks is the type of player who I think can take advantage of that space. We're going to see him get a little bit more run. The ball's getting out of CJ Strauss' hands a little bit quicker than it was early in the season. So I'm just curious what that ideation process for the Texans looks like moving forward and what it looks like against a Ravens defense that in theory with all these guys out could potentially be taken advantage of.

57:12Derrik Klassen: if you can't do it Sunday, when can you do it? That's about all I got on that. I mean, like, seriously, what? Yeah. And if you're the Ravens, I mean, and I know easier said than done against Houston, but Tampa Bay had some success there. Let this be a week where Derrick Henry gets back on track because he is part of this offense last time I checked, even though it hasn't really felt like it recently.

57:36Robert Mays: All right, we're going to take one more quick break and then go spend some time on Sicko Street.

57:43Robert Mays: Every week, we like to pick a couple of games that when you're looking at the slate, they might not look overly appealing, but we're going to try to sell you on them in some way as we head on down to Sicko Street. Derek, let's start with the fact that the New Orleans Saints are favored to win a football game on Sunday. Discuss.

58:00Dave Helman: They are favored to win. And so let me paint a picture here. Let's think about the Saints going into the season. I think I think going into the season, people would not have been surprised if they ended up with the number one pick at the end of it. So a team already people really didn't care about. They were starting Spencer Rattler. Everyone thought it was going to be a joke. As far as the season being started, they had one of the biggest losses that any team has faced this season when they got blown out completely by the Seahawks and they are still zero and four. They have lost a lot of these games.

58:26Dave Helman: This is not a very good Saints team. This Giants team, on the other hand, started on three, but they had their fun in the sun going and beating the Chargers. So they feel like they should be on this high and they have at least one unit on their team where you're like they can kick ass in their that pass rush so it's like a position group not a

58:44Robert Mays: unit to be clear the Giants defense is still like a bottom six group that's fair okay not the whole

58:49Dave Helman: unit but at least one group where you can be like they can maybe win us a game which like they did win the game last week so it's at least we have some proof of concept there but you bake all of that together and it feels like this should still be a Saints team that does not get favored in any games, but they're one and a half point favorites. And I think part of that is that they do not look as bad as the record and as bad as that game against the Seahawks. They have actually been pretty competitive in all the other games that they played. They almost took that Arizona game to overtime. They played really well against the 49ers relatively.

59:21Dave Helman: And then, Robert, you and I talked about it, that Bills game, they were moving it on the Bills. And if they hit one or two more explosives, you know, that throw to Brandon Cooks in the end zone, maybe like they really make that a game. And so this is a Saints offense that they at least have something there. And if they can pick on this Giants back seven like this, this actually could be a pretty winnable game for them.

59:41Derrik Klassen: I'm not even being a jerk when I say this. This is a dream season for the Saints, as far as I'm concerned.

59:47Robert Mays: Like as far as well and lose every single game is the ideal scenario.

59:51Derrik Klassen: Play like they're entertaining. They are in position for a good draft. You're not a joke. Like I get like the goals to win. But if we knew going into the season that you would be among the worst teams in the NFL, They're legitimately pretty fun to watch. Surprise, surprise. Kellen Moore is a pretty good play caller. Maybe chill with the Philly Philly in the low red zone. I don't know if that was necessary, but other than that. Great play by Cole Bishop. We should give some credit to Cole Bishop. Still not a ball worth throwing if you're Chris Olave. Kellen Moore is good at his job. There are pieces of this Saints team that are really fun.

1:00:24Derrik Klassen: I know Cesar Ruiz, I think, is going to miss this game, but the Saints offensive line looks promising. Like I was watching the Bills game back and I was like, you know, whoever plays quarterback for this team in the future is probably going to like the situation he's in a lot. Like I like a lot of stuff about the Saints. I won't be surprised if they win this game. I feel like kudos to Jackson Dart. He played really well in his debut. But this is a better team than like on track to pick first in the draft suggests. I'm not surprised that they're favored.

1:00:52Robert Mays: Yeah, the reason to watch this game is you might get to watch the Saints get their only win of the year and the only game they'll probably be favored in. And the matchup specifically, I think, is worth pointing out, despite what Derek said about the defensive line, and this is not a defensive line problem. The Giants are dead last in the NFL in rush defense DVOA. And the Saints, if anything, they can run the ball a little bit. We saw that against the Bills last week. And so we'll see if the Saints can get that going against the Giants. And if they can, we might see the first Saints win of the year and maybe the only Saints win of the year.

1:01:18Derrik Klassen: Or considering how hype New York got for the Tommy DeVito win streaks. Imagine if a first round pick gets the Giants on a win streak. Like we're going to have some fun if that happens. It doesn't matter who they beat.

1:01:30Robert Mays: Let's get to our other matchup here on Sicko Street. And this is a pretty simple one. If you love ugly football and if you love just great defensive line play, the Vikings-Browns early matchup for you on Sunday is worth getting up for. Make yourself a cup of coffee, settle down in front of the TV, and you get to watch Miles Garrett, Malik Collins, the entire Browns offensive line or defensive line go against a Vikings offensive line that will probably be missing three starters in Donovan Jackson, Ryan Kelly, and Brian O 'Neill with a quarterback that just has no timing mechanism, whatever in his brain.

1:02:07Robert Mays: And then on the other side of the ball, you get the Vikings defensive line that we've talked about it a lot over the last couple of weeks is an incredibly fun unit right now. Jalen Redmond is playing really well. You still have Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen. Jonathan Granada is a star. and you're going against a rookie quarterback with Brian Flores as the guy on the other side of the ball in his first game. So this could just be absolute carnage for three straight hours, but in a fun way. And so I think that it's probably worth tuning into this one, even if it's a little bit early for you.

1:02:38Robert Mays: Fun for everybody, but Carson Wentz and Dylan Gabriel. Yeah. And that's okay with me.

1:02:42Dave Helman: Yeah. There's nothing wrong with having a good time.

1:02:44Robert Mays: I don't care if they're having a bad time.

1:02:45Dave Helman: Listen, the, the, the sideshow game on a, like where it's just the weird stuff is all happening. This might truly be a game where there's nothing like it for the rest of the year. Those games are worth tuning into.

1:02:57Robert Mays: I don't have them in front of me, but I was looking at some numbers for other defenses when it comes to the run game. And I was looking at some of the numbers for the Browns just at the top of every single list. There's just like ridiculous stats about the Browns defense. Even I think it was like too high defensive success rate because I was looking it up for the Seahawks and the Browns are at like 2%. Like that's an anomaly because they don't do it that often. But it was still like of the 22 high runs they have this year, like two of them have been successful for the other team.

1:03:25Derrik Klassen: We call it Sicko Street and like for good reason. But honestly, considering Cleveland's going to spend a lot of their time buried in the noon window, you're like your team's going to be on. There's going to be eight other games going on. Do yourself a favor. Like all you got to do is get up. You don't probably even have to get up. Just turn the TV on.

1:03:45Robert Mays: Yeah, just turn it on as you're getting, again, as you're making yourself breakfast, just turn it on, have it on in the background.

1:03:49Derrik Klassen: The Browns defense is worthy of your undivided attention, at least once or twice this season. Like, they are so fun. The line is incredible. Carson Swessinger is such a fun player for a rookie linebacker. They do a lot of fun stuff. They're worth watching and being familiar with, and this is a great opportunity.

1:04:06Robert Mays: And you need to be able to tell people where you were for the first Dylan Gabriel start. That is true. So if you don't watch it, then you're never going to be able to do that. Last segment here before we get to what we want to know at the end of week five, we're going to do a little under the hood. Done this over the last several years on this show. Every once in a while, we like to pick a unit to dig into that is either playing a little bit worse or a little bit better than we expected and just try to figure out why. Like what's going on with the engine so far in this season? We picked the Carolina Panthers today on offense for this reason.

1:04:38Robert Mays: This was not supposed to happen again, right? Even if the Panthers weren't going to be a good team, they were not supposed to be one of the worst offenses in the league. We wanted the Panthers to at least be a serious operation on that side of the ball after what Bryce Young showed in the back half of last season. So far this year, of the eight teams that are in the bottom eight in offensive DVOA in the NFL, here are those eight teams and here are the situations that they're in. The Chicago Bears have a new play caller, new offensive system. Give them a little bit of grace. The Las Vegas Raiders have a new play caller and a new quarterback.

1:05:13Robert Mays: Give them a little bit of grace. The New York Giants benched their quarterback and are now starting a rookie. A little bit of grace. The Minnesota Vikings had a first-year quarterback and are now playing Carson Wentz. The Cincinnati Bengals lost to Joe Burrow. The Cleveland Browns just benched their quarterback and are going with a rookie. And the Tennessee Titans have a rookie quarterback that they are starting. Those are seven of the bottom eight teams. The eighth team is the Carolina Panthers. That was not supposed to be this. You've made investments. this is now year three of this timeline or year two really of the new regime year three for Bryce year two of this new regime you've spent the last couple off seasons on offense last year on defense this year the whole goal Derek said this I think this is a perfect way to frame it coming into the season success for the Panthers was not picking in the top 10 it was being a serious operation and so far that has not yet happened and Derek if you're trying to figure out why that has not happened on the offensive side of the

1:06:07Dave Helman: ball where does that start for you to me it's just the passing game stinks for a number of reasons like that we it's just that's it straight to the point it's just not good yeah well and let we'll break it down piece by piece we can we can do the Bryce Young stuff later like I I don't think he's playing well but I think there are a number of other structural and like personnel issues that really bleed into this the first to me is that I think if you're going to have success for Bryce Young you either need to have him very well protected in the pocket which they are not doing Like they're a good run blocking offensive line, but even last year, even this year, it's not a great pure pass unit, especially with some of the injuries they've had, like at right guard, Milton Williams and Christian Barmore had a day last week.

1:06:47Dave Helman: And so their, their pass protection unit is not great. And then to me,

1:06:50Robert Mays: Milton Williams had five pressures in that game. His average time to pressure was 2.42 seconds. See like no quarterback is, excuse me, excuse me. That was Christian Barmore. Christian Barmore had five pressures. His average time pressure was 2.42 seconds. Just to give you a slight snapshot of how that game went for the interior. I bet Milton Williams wasn't far off. He also was contributing. Well, he, he did something to Damian Lewis on one play that was like not safe for work. So both of those guys were getting in on the act.

1:07:15Dave Helman: Yeah. Damian Lewis tried to like jump set him and that just did not go up. Um, and so you have that issue. That's number one. Number two, I think this, if you're going to have a good passing offense with Bryce young, you need to spread it out. You need to be in a lot of gun and you need to like, let him kind of see everything and be the point guard that he wants to be. They just don't have the receiver talent for that right now. It's, It's a lot of Tedaro and McMillan save us. And that's it. Like they just obviously they trade away Adam Thielen. They've got Jalen Coker, who was injured for a lot of this season.

1:07:43Dave Helman: Xavier Leggett has not been the player that they wanted him to be. So they've just the personnel at receiver is not what you need it to be for a Bryce Young offense. And the pass blocking unit is not what you need to get the most out of him. And so it's just a really poor mix of trying to make the best of an offense around him. and then that I think has bled into him playing a lot closer to the way that he played for the first half of last year as opposed to the second half, obviously.

1:08:08Derrik Klassen: I think sometimes I'm guilty of leaning too much on personnel and not enough on what scheme can do for an offense, but this feels like a situation where it's fitting, where I watch the Panthers, and the crazy thing is, one month into the season, I'm so confident that Ted Arroa McMillan was a hit. He is a phenomenal player. He looks really good. And even with him in the offense doing his thing, they just feel so juiceless. Like they feel so unexplosive, explosive play rate of 7%. It's 29th in the NFL, 10 completions of 20 plus yards. And on top of that, the thing that's fake. Two of those were Andy Dalton at the end of that game last week.

1:08:55Derrik Klassen: The other thing that's it's not fake but it's just troubling is these are not like these are not explosive plays in the sense of like run after catch of like getting more than is schemed up panthers receivers have minus 172 receiving yards over expectation like they catch the ball and they go down no matter like wherever the ball was thrown if it's a six yard throw they're getting six to nine if it's a 20 yard throw and it's completed, maybe they're getting 25. Tedaroa McMillan had one. He's had four catch and runs of significant distance, but only one of those was like 10 plus yards of catch and run.

1:09:35Derrik Klassen: He had a really nice 40 yarder against Arizona where he showed some of his long speed and looked really good in the open field. Other than that, every receiver is getting tackled where he is. Forget about like screens going the distance. The Panthers have, and you're right about Andy Dalton they have three throws on the season of less than 10 air yards that became explosives so next gen multiple people define it multiple ways but next gen defines an explosive passes uh 15 or 16 plus yards yeah they have one throw of less than 10 air yards that became an explosive uh or three excuse me and one of those was Andy Dalton at the end of last week the only one of any real significance was Chuba Hubbard's in week one against Jacksonville which happened when the game was out of hand anyway.

1:10:22Derrik Klassen: Like the idea of throwing a screen to a receiver and getting 12, 15, 20 yards from him just does not happen on this team. And I watch it and I just think, yeah, this is a team whose only other proven receiver besides McMillan is on IR, Jalen Coker. And Xavier Legat's been hurt too. And even when he's been healthy, he hasn't looked the part of a first round pick. So that is a huge, I don't want to call it a miss yet. I think that's a little harsh, but you need him to be doing more than what he is. And you look at that and you're like, yeah, McMillan is badass, but you're not getting anything else from anybody in this passing game and nothing to make Bryce's life easier.

1:11:03Derrik Klassen: Not to say that he's been blame free in all of this, but there are no layups in this offense. There are no small plays that become big plays. And it jumps out at you when you watch enough of their tape.

1:11:16Robert Mays: I think these are two really, really good buckets to focus on. I think what Derek said about you either need to be strong in pass protection or you need your pass catchers to be good. I think it speaks to, I think we've always known this. Even if you were optimistic about Bryce Young, I think you have to at least admit the fragility of the situation, right? Things need to be good around him. He needs space or he needs guys because he's going to rip those things with anticipation. Do you have guys who can go make plays for you? Last year, he did not. And that was one of the most frustrating parts about this.

1:11:43Robert Mays: He still does not. But at least last year when the offense was frustrating because you saw some of the personnel concerns and limitations of the pass catchers, they could be explosive. They were aggressive. He was pushing the ball down the field. And like you just said, there are no avenues for them to seek out explosive plays this year. One area where you typically would try to do this, right, and teams do it all the time, can we find explosives off play action? That is a tried and true way to try to push the ball down the field. This season, the Carolina Panthers are averaging four, Bryce Young is, excuse me.

1:12:14Robert Mays: I'm sure the Andy Dalton numbers will skew this. Bryce Young is averaging four air yards per attempt off of play action, four. They've actually been decent plays for the offense, but every single one of them is him dumping the ball down to a tight end in the flat off of some sort of naked. They have the lowest, they have a 3.2 % explosive play rate off play action this year, which is dead last in the NFL. There are no explosives to be had with this offense. And then the other last bit of frustration, with personnel concerns, no juice whatsoever, the construction of it, this team doesn't dictate to opposing defenses when you watch them play.

1:12:52Robert Mays: And this isn't a they need to use more motion thing. There are teams that don't use motion that do a great job of dictating to opposing defenses. The New England Patriots, their opponent last week, are a great example. Patriots do not use a ton of motion, but by formation and personnel, They find matchups that they can pick on. The Panthers just don't do a lot of that. And the one thing that I want to see more of in that area, even with some of your limitations with the pass catchers, I want TMAC moved around more. I want you to be trying to manufacture opportunities for him. He has 27 routes from the slot this year.

1:13:25Robert Mays: That's not nothing, but it probably should be more than that. He has five targets on those 27 routes, five catches for 72 yards on those plays. If you look at other guys who are like true number one receivers in the offense who at least do some work from the slot, Puka, JSN, Justin Jefferson, all of those guys are at like 35 to 40 ish percent in targets per route run from the slot. When they are in that spot, they are manufacturing opportunities for those guys. TMAC is at 18 percent. So there are just so many different areas where I think you're really realizing, Derek, the limitations on so many different fronts for this offense.

1:14:05Dave Helman: And I think that does go back a little bit to the rest of the personnel, because if you do put T-Mac in the slot, who are you putting outside?

1:14:10Robert Mays: Yeah. Who are you putting outside?

1:14:11Dave Helman: Like, who are you scared of? Even some of their other receivers that they. Yeah.

1:14:15Robert Mays: Hunter Renfro is not going to be running those vertical routes on the outside.

1:14:18Dave Helman: Yeah. The other receivers that they have are like best from the slot. And like, you can still make the argument that like, well, we'd rather just put a person from the street outside and let T-Mac do what he can do over the middle of the field. And I do think, again, like you said, there have been moments where they've been able to get away with that. But maybe when you get Jalen Coker back, you feel a little bit more comfortable doing some of that stuff and allowing T-Mac to operate from the middle of the field. And hopefully that can open up the offense. But I think, again, when I again, T-Mac is incredible.

1:14:46Dave Helman: Like McMillan is a really, really good player. But the fact that he is so obviously the only player that they can go to beyond five yards at all past the line of scrimmage is like even if they wanted to use him from the slot more. I just don't even know if that fixes the offense overall. it might just get him a few nice more targets.

1:15:03Robert Mays: It definitely doesn't fix the offense overall, but I'm just trying to find any route I can to find a few more explosive chunks in the passing game. And I do think that's one area where they can try to seek them out. But everything you just said is totally valid. Like who else would you put out there? And like, that's where maybe getting like, like I don't even know. If you can just have, and honestly, that's why losing David Moore last week on the first play of the game was actually a thing. When you, when losing David Moore in 2025 is like a, oh man, we might be f***ed on offense thing for you, you know you're in a really bad spot.

1:15:32Derrik Klassen: It's bleak enough that I'm talking myself into being excited about Jimmy Horn Jr. making his debut, which not a guy that you're probably going to line up outside. I doubt all 5 '8", 174 of Jimmy Horn Jr. is going to be doing a lot of stuff outside, but anything to anything that can help this offense. Maybe Xavier Leggett, yeah, you said it sounds like he's hopeful to play against Miami at least. I mean, from what we've seen, I don't know how exciting that is, but they need anyone other than Tett McMillan to step up.

1:16:04Robert Mays: And that's the last point here. If it's not going to happen this week, when is it going to happen? Like this Dolphins defense is the type of unit that you need to get it going against. And Derek, you pointed out the last thing here, I'll say. You pointed out the injuries along the offensive line. Those absolutely have shown up. You see the pass protection issues at center and right guard. Iquano has been disappointing again in just true passing situations. And he's somebody that last year of his deal next year, somebody who's playing for a contract at this moment, and he just had too many moments where this is a left tackle that you drafted in the top 10.

1:16:39Robert Mays: He just needs to be better than he has in those spots. And this was always going to be a group that was better on the ground than they were in pass protection, but it's been even worse this year than I probably expected it to be, even with a couple of the injuries that they've had to deal with. All right. Before we get to what we want to know by the end of week five, a quick wins pool update. I want this to be known. I did not put this in here. This was Beller wanting to update the people about how the wins pool is going. Confirmed.

1:17:08Derrik Klassen: Confirmed. It was me. Thanks, Beller.

1:17:10Robert Mays: I'm sure that there are some people who don't know what we're talking about. Each year on this show, whoever the co-hosts are, it was me and Nate for a couple of years, it was me and Derek last year, now it's the three of us. We all pick five teams and then two teams that were projected to win six and a half or fewer games by Vegas. And we do a wins pool. Whoever has the fewest number of wins at the end of the year has to do something embarrassing on Radio Row. I think we have our punishment. Do we feel good about it? Do we? I feel good about one of the ones that we have talked about.

1:17:41Derrik Klassen: If you're talking about what I think you are, then yay for me.

1:17:46Robert Mays: Somebody suggested this in our Discord and I actually really like it. And it was, we have to dress like a super team, a super fan.

1:17:52Derrik Klassen: That's what I thought you were going to say.

1:17:53Robert Mays: Of the worst team in the NFL. I don't think it should be the worst team in the NFL. I think you should have to dress as a super fan of the team that did the most damage to you in losing the wins pool.

1:18:03Dave Helman: Oh, if I have to do Bengals face paint, I swear. Yes. So Derek has to dress like the Bengalorian at Radio Road this year if he loses.

1:18:10Robert Mays: That's exactly what we're talking about here. We're giving this away? We've just changed it on the fly? We're telling the people what the punishment is? I think because somebody suggested it yeah we have to do it right yeah yeah I think we want to give somebody credit for suggesting it when it was going to be coming from us we weren't going to tell people but I think we can tell people it doesn't bother me yeah it's like I think because somebody suggested it we should acknowledge it

1:18:32Dave Helman: we gotta dig up whoever that was and like send them an athletic shirt or something

1:18:35Robert Mays: yes so Scott get on that please because somebody definitely needs a present for that but I think that's what's going to happen this is one of those that like I feel like people knowing it for the next couple months

1:18:45Derrik Klassen: actually does make the payoff more fun. Oh man, I know so many people who can help me dress like a Saints fanatic. That'll help me out tremendously because they're going to be the reason why I lose this damn thing.

1:18:55Robert Mays: Right now, as we go through the standings, I've lost the last two years, by the way. I am 18 and 10. My good teams are 16 and four, which I feel pretty good about.

1:19:05Derrik Klassen: You got, you got, and it was well done by you. You got the Eagles and the Bills at the 3-4 turn. And they are the best two teams in football right now. And Derek and I have the Bengal. Well, Derek has the Bengals and I have the Ravens, which you just want to talk about decisions that are aging like milk in the hot sun. That that's it right there. I also have the Seahawks.

1:19:27Robert Mays: I got the Seahawks with the last pick in the good teams draft. And so I feel pretty good about that. That was nice by you. I'm 18 and 10 Davis, 12 and 16 and Derek 10, 17 and one. The time makes it like Packers, man. I sure. Awful. Yeah. There's a lot of,

1:19:41Derrik Klassen: there's a lot of ball game left, man. And like the Packers are going to be 10 and 18 and just like,

1:19:47Dave Helman: that's the time. I'll feel grosser.

1:19:51Robert Mays: Let's talk about what we want to know by the time week five is over. This is how we end all these preview shows. What you want to know by the time this week's NFL slate has ended. David Hellman, kick us off my friend.

1:20:04Derrik Klassen: Eagles Broncos just feels like a game that was designed for the Monday morning, like TV shows, you know, Especially on a week where the Chiefs don't play until Monday night, so you don't have the Chiefs to talk about on TV, Eagles-Broncos has so much potential for hand-wringing. And I'll take the Eagles side of that. Obviously, we've seen the news this week with A.J. Brown voicing his frustration after that game against Tampa Bay, no completions after the second half. So now not only are you trying to get your offense right and find a little bit more balance, get things moving the way you're supposed to, you're doing it against the Denver defense one of the most ferocious pass rushes in the league they're not going to be afraid to man up AJ Brown which I can't wait to watch and so I'm curious if they do or even if they don't either way the way that they play it is going to be interesting to watch and there's two ways you could look at this like if the Eagles snap out of their funk against Denver that's a fun storyline in terms of like oh boy if the Eagles can do this against Denver, they can do it against anybody.

1:21:12Derrik Klassen: Or this really has the potential to send Philadelphia into a tailspin because the vibe, shocking to no one, the vibes in Philly do not match a 4-0 team one bit whatsoever.

1:21:25Robert Mays: Yeah, the vibes are going to be rotten the entire year and they're going to win 15 games in the Super Bowl. The same exact way it was last year for the first half of the season.

1:21:32Derrik Klassen: More likely than not, yeah. But I can't rule out the possibility that they get it together. Do I think it'll happen against Denver? Not really. but it could be a really fun development if they do. So I want to know what we're saying about Philly on Monday morning on all of the big, fun, argumentative TV shows.

1:21:48Robert Mays: This is amazing because I want to know what we're saying about the Broncos on Monday morning when that game was over. Because the Broncos have been, you know, it's been up and down over the first four games of the season. Their offense was really struggling before they played the Bengals last week. Their offense got going in the right ways against the Bengals. The run game really picked up down to down. They've been explosive on the ground, but they hadn't been consistent on the ground. We mentioned it on the Monday Night Football recap. That was the best single run game success rate from the backs in the Sean Payton era.

1:22:15Robert Mays: And so seeing them get going in that way, the offense just felt a little bit more dynamic on Monday than it has in previous weeks. Can they keep this going? Like, should I believe what happened against the Bengals is going to look very different against the Eagles? Bo Nix has struggled a little bit when blitzed this year. The Eagles have been bringing a lot of heat and playing a bunch of man coverage this year, which has been a little bit of a change up for them. And so I think this is an interesting measuring stick game for the Broncos. So you want to know what teams are people are saying about the Eagles.

1:22:41Robert Mays: I want to know what people are saying about the Broncos on Monday.

1:22:43Derrik Klassen: It's definitely, I mean, it is a game that is going to produce takes no matter what happens.

1:22:48Dave Helman: Yeah. This game for me, I Denver's offense. I think, I think it's going to be a really tough one because I think a lot of what they want to do is, especially what we saw against the Bengals last week is a, it was a lot more movement and a lot more. Can we get these linebackers to make a mistake? The Eagles linebackers don't really make mistakes. And I think, too, even just in the secondary, they have a huge talent advantage. Like, I love Corlin Sutton. Great player. Quinion Mitchell played maybe the best, like, to me, just in terms of lockdown coverage, the best cornerback performance we've seen all season from anybody.

1:23:17Dave Helman: And then Cooper DeGene is also one of the best nickels in the league. So this is just like, this is going to be a put up or shut up test for that offense.

1:23:24Derrik Klassen: I'm curious to see how Denver approaches Hurts, too, because they blitzed the absolute shit out of Daniel Jones a few weeks ago, and it didn't really go that well for him. I'm just curious to see what the approach is. I mean, we saw the Bucs last week.

1:23:38Robert Mays: They just stopped blitzing in the second half, and it was actually the correct approach because Jalen was playing really well when they were trying to heat him up. The zone blitzes versus the man blitzes is a good thing. But do you want to leave, even if it's Pats or Tan, do you want to give Jalen Hurts to find one-on-one opportunities? Because even if you think that's a good matchup for you, cornerback against receiver, we've seen that giving those that this Eagles team specifically any sort of defined one-on-ones is not the right way to approach them Derek what do you want to know coming out of week five in the

1:24:06Dave Helman: NFL I want to know like is Clayton Adams really the most important coach in the NFL like it seems like let's think about last year Arizona was one of the best rushing teams in the NFL on a game-to-game basis because of just all the movement and how well it was coached and how well it was put together and not even just the quarterback run with Kyler Murray stuff like their under center run game was awesome this year when Clayton Adams moves on to Dallas they have not been so good you look at Dallas's offensive line and now even with a couple of injuries throughout the season like Cooper BB has missed some time Tyler Booker is not in the starting lineup and they have still been one of the best rushing offenses of the league so I'm just excited to see like can they really keep this going because I in terms of the construction of it and what it's looked like and how well the backs are playing, which that's actually the other non Clayton Adams part of it.

1:24:56Dave Helman: The offensive line is playing well and the construction is good. The two backs are just making people miss more than I thought they would. So that's been part of it. It's just their run game is really, really fun to watch right now.

1:25:07Robert Mays: Yeah. And I think the Cowboys absolutely can't keep it going considering they're playing the Jets on Sunday and the Jets defense struggled. If the Cardinals can't get it going against the Titans on Sunday, then I think we're going to have to start having some unfortunate conversations on paper.

1:25:20Derrik Klassen: I'm glad you said that there, because on paper, Cowboys Jets is not a very compelling situation, but like that, we could absolutely be watching another Cowboys banger. Like, I mean, both of those teams could score in the thirties or maybe even get to 40.

1:25:34Robert Mays: The jets are going to produce a lot of entertaining games. The Cowboys are going to boost a lot of entertaining games this year. And we've already seen the jets do it. Like this being a reprise of Steelers jets week one, I don't think that would surprise anybody. And guess what? I'm on board with that. I would be ready to watch that. Let's do it. All right, guys, That is all we've got for today. If you're listening to this on Friday morning, our Thursday night football recap should be available for you on our YouTube channel. Rams Niners is a good one. Looking forward to that. If you're watching this on YouTube, encourage you to like, subscribe.

1:26:07Robert Mays: Gonna be doing a lot more stuff specifically for YouTube over the course of the season. It is the only place that you can get those Monday and Thursday recaps. So if you haven't subscribed, really encourage you to do so for now. That's all we got. We'll see you back here on Sunday night. Talk to you soon.