Week 6 preview: Lions-Chiefs and 49ers-Buccaneers at the top of a loaded slate

0:03Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays the week six preview is here. Got some good ones on the slate this week had two games the week Lions at chiefs 49ers at bucks. talked about one thing from Jag Seahawks, Bears Commanders, and Bills Falcons. Spent a little bit of time on Sicko Street with the Chargers and Dolphins and the Cowboys Panthers game. Trotted out a little bit of a take tribunal about the Colts and where their roster sits compared to all the other teams in the AFC. And then me, Dave, and Derek talked about what we want to know coming out of the week six slate. Enjoyed this one.

0:37I hope you guys do as well. Let's get to it.

0:43is the week six preview here on the athletic football show we've got a great slate of games in week six two monday night games again two monday night games that we're going to talk about this are we doing 17 of these it feels it feels like there's a doubleheader every other week i don't mind that there's two games on monday night at the same time because then there's one less game to worry about on sunday and so there's a little bit less traffic i am annoyed this week because I was about to enjoy another Bears Island game where I didn't have to be concerned with anything else and I could just sit in my feelings.

1:11And now I have to pay attention to another game while that's happening. I don't fully understand the staggered Monday nights, but it seems like they're here to stay. So yeah, get used to watching one game in the fourth quarter and one game in the third. And then we've got another doubleheader next Monday night that includes one of the late games again. This feels like, Derek, there's been more of these than there ever have been. Am I getting that right? That has to be true. Like, I know that we've started to do these a little bit deeper into the season before, but this feels like it's as bad as ever.

1:40And I personally I don't love the double Monday night. I don't love that. Honestly, like there is something to me that is we've talked about this before in some capacity, something very ritualistic about the NFL schedule. Whereas I know what Sunday is Monday night is what it is. Thursday night is what it is. I don't like when it gets muddled up first two weeks. I'll give it to him. Everything after that, we got to reconsider. Here's why this is even more pronounced for me now. I don't know how you feel about this because we haven't talked about it since you started since you came on the show. I love Buck and Aikman on the Monday night games.

2:10Like, I just think that they both now have FU money and they're it's it's Buck and Aikman after dark. And so there's like a looseness to the way that they handle these broadcasts now. And like Aikman is super honest. There's very little holding back. And it honestly feels like kind of just a shooting the shit sort of broadcast. And after a crazy day on Sunday, I enjoy the looser, more casual feel to Monday night. And that being taken away and me having to focus on a second game, I think that's part of the reason I find it particularly annoying. It is funny because one of the biggest cliches with like sports media or media in general is like, oh, we just want it to feel like a hang.

2:48We just want it to feel like you're with your friends. And Troy and Joe pull that off, which is incredible. Like the it was the Bengals Broncos game when Troy was just like, this isn't a very good I was like, Troy, you can't say that midway through the third quarter, but he can now. He can now. And that's why I think that he's the best version of himself that he's ever been. I agree. Let's dig into this slate. We have two games of the week this week presented by BetMGM. Let's start with the Lions and the Chiefs. The Chiefs are two and a half point favorites in this game. And if we're trying to figure out why this is a game of the week that includes a two and three team, Eric, I think this is the answer.

3:25you can make a really solid argument that the lions are the best team in the NFL through five weeks. And the chiefs are still favored in this game. And so even if there's a little bit of a disparity in the records, where they are in the standings right now, I think that's enough of a signal as to why this is a very good game. Yeah. I feel weirdly like unmoved by the chiefs record. I still think that this is a really good football team and I'm not even just doing the, Oh, when they get Rashid rice back and all that stuff. Like I think right now they're a good football team. I think the offense is really good.

3:53The defense has some issues and we'll get to it and have not been, I think, as good as maybe they were at their peak the last couple of years. But it's still in the passing game, generally a pretty solid unit and good enough to be what they need to be when the offense is rolling the way that it's rolling. Again, especially when in a couple of weeks they get rice back. So this two and three record does not move me. And then, like you said, we spent months talking about the Lions. Oh, can they replace these coordinators? Can they do all this stuff? And they look for the most part about as good as you could have weathered any of that stuff.

4:20I think this is important to dig into because we have not really had a longer considered conversation about the Lions over the last couple of weeks. They beat up on the Bengals. They beat up on the Browns. They have not gotten this type of treatment on the show. And I wanted to take a beat to dive into exactly what Derek is talking about. I don't think the concerns and the relative skepticism about the Lions was unfair. All three of us picked the Lions to make the playoffs this year. And there was a lingering question about what they would look like replacing two coordinators. The question and the way that we framed it all offseason was now you get the tests that the mainstay franchises in the NFL get.

4:56If you're good enough for long enough, you're going to lose coordinators. You're going to have brain drain. Can you handle the attrition in your building and prove that you are one of those teams that has staying power? That was the question. And I don't think it was a crazy question to ask. They have answered it so far in a pretty emphatic way. And I kind of love the opportunity at a full circle moment going to Arrowhead because this is the first time that the Lions have played the Chiefs since that 2023 season opener. I remember that the narrative was incredible for that game. The Lions surged at the end of 2022.

5:30They knocked the Packers out of the playoffs. They finished with a winning record and was how do you follow that up? Are you for real? Are you actually a team capable of making the playoffs? And short of being in the Super Bowl, they've been as successful as you can be, right? Like they played in an NFC title game. They were the number one seed last year. Maybe they do better if not for a litany of injuries. And now you go back to Arrowhead as potentially the best team in the NFL. And I just I love that image of two years later, we're playing this game again. And the Lions have delivered on so much of that potential.

6:04And we get to see what they look like against. I mean, the Chiefs are favored in this game, but this is a game you should, I would say, expect to win if you're a Lions fan. Like, you're not going in here hoping that they don't embarrass you. You're like, yeah, we're the best team in the NFL, and we're capable of winning games like this. We've done it a lot over the last few years. Yeah, it's interesting. The signpost the last three seasons for the Lions. Kicking off the 23 season, it was, are you a serious team? They answered emphatically yes. Last year, it was, can you be a real, true Super Bowl contender?

6:34Like, one of the best teams in the league. And until they got really banged up down the stretch, they absolutely were that. And Derek, this year it's, can you maintain this even when you're losing some of the component parts? And they have answered the bell again. And so this idea that we just kind of brought up off to the side a couple times over the last 90 seconds, are the Lions the best team in the NFL? Derek, as it currently sits five weeks into the season, do you think the Lions are the best team in the NFL? Man, that's a great question. probably they are probably at least the one where I feel like the floor is the highest on both sides of the ball and then obviously offensively you have a pretty high ceiling as well they are despite one all of the turnover that they've had two um how bad week one was against the Packers this is still a top five team in DVOA on both sides of the ball they're number one overall yeah like they are insane well that's what I'm saying it's not like heavily weighted by maybe just the offense is like carrying them like they are both sides of the ball are rolling and I think offensively like it kind of makes sense that they've been able to keep a lot of it like most of the players are the same and so that has helped them a lot outside of a couple of changes along the offensive line defense I had a lot more questions about but they have answered the bell in pretty much every way like they've been a really really good unit there which we'll talk about a little bit with some of the attrition that they've had for the second year in a row um injuries wise but I think they have if I had to pick a team right now like who is the best roster it's probably them it's probably a lot of NFC teams actually it's probably them I still think the Packers are up there the Rams lose a lot of stupid games, but they are still one of the better teams to me too, but it probably still is the lines if I had to pick.

8:04Yeah. So let's talk about that defense because the offense has been great and the offense has a ton of talent on it. I think even with losing Ben Johnson, I thought that the talent could lift the offense and they've done a great job. The coaching staff has as well. And we'll talk about some of that, but the defense just had a couple more questions because there isn't that same level of overwhelming talent on that side of the ball. And they were losing one of the coordinators. So Derek, let's start with what has been going well before we dig into maybe how some of the injuries will affect this team.

8:32If you're trying to pin down what has been consistent in making the Lions one of the better defenses in the league, and then maybe some of the differences we've seen from Kelvin Shepard in year one as a coordinator, what are those two buckets look like for you five weeks into the year? I think to me, the biggest thing is that one in terms of consistency and what this thing feels like, they are still a very, very good run defense unit which is like that was kind of the sell with them previously is with Aaron Glenn it was a lot of we're going to play base defense we're going to load the box we're going to do what we want on rundowns and then when we get to man or when we get to like third and seven we're just going to play man coverage and be better than you and so I think they've done a pretty good job in that sense maintaining that identity I think in some ways they've even been more comfortable with that stuff because the backers are playing at a really high level we talked about this on the hangover show Alex Anzalone played a really incredible game but Jack Campbell is really coming into his own in terms of I think he was always a player who could run and you could see some of the flashes in coverage at times when he was like moving back.

9:29But I think every now and then his head would be spinning, especially in terms of what he was trying to do as a run fitter. I think he's been a lot better. And then just purely in terms of personnel, like when Brian branches is doing his thing, he is a top three safety in the NFL. And I think that he's allowed them a lot of flexibility in terms of do they want to use him as a robber? Do they want to have him as a guy coming out of the roof to play man coverage, which is something we've talked about a little bit earlier in the season like they just I think the players in the middle of the defense have this cascading effect for everybody else around them they're playing an insane amount of base defense this year they were a team that played a lot of base defense last year this season per true media they're playing base defense on like 60 percent of their plays that somehow is second in the NFL the Raiders are number one which is an entirely different conversation that's two different types of playing a lot of base defense.

10:18The Raiders are in a catch 22 spot because the Raiders shouldn't be putting more linebackers on the field, but they also don't have corners that you want to put on the field. For the Lions specifically now, as they're losing some of these corners, it makes sense to be playing with three linebackers. And that's in part because of what Derek said about the play from Alex Anzalone and from Jack Campbell. But the other part of it is that Derek Barnes plays on the edge a lot for this team and they don't have a lot of edge depth. And so being able to use him in that role, he's kind of playing two positions for them.

10:46So that's something that is carried over and is a little bit more extreme. The amount of man coverage, like Derek alluded to, has been up near the top of the league. We touched on this a tiny bit earlier in the season, but as we're doing kind of an identity check on where the Lions are, I think it's worth bringing up again. There's just way more disguise for this team defensively. Even if the DNA and the coverages they want to play aren't that different, the ways that they're hiding it are. So the one that jumps out to me that I think is just a perfect example of this, Last year, they played man coverage on 21 % of their two high looks.

11:16So when they're in two high, they're probably playing some sort of split safety coverage or playing some sort of zone coverage. This year, they're playing cover one on 31 % of their two high looks. So it's just one more layer trying to make offenses and quarterbacks think a little bit while still maintaining that we're going to be in your face. We're going to play a certain way. We're going to play aggressive that they did under Aaron Glenn. And I think the marriage of those two ideas with Calvin Shepard has turned them into a really good unit on the back end or kept them as a really good unit on the back end.

11:47And stop me if this sounds familiar, though. Unfortunately, how much does injury play a hand in what we might see? And there we go, because it feels like we're right back where we were last year. DJ Reed was already out. Terry and Arnold goes out toward the end of the Bengals game, which justice for Terry and Arnold a little bit, because I think people have been frustrated with Terry and Arnold because he's a first round pick who hasn't maybe lived up to the billing. I know he's got a podcast with Pat Sertan and people are like, one of these things is not like the other here. But he went out against Cincinnati and it immediately became apparent that he is a pretty good player.

12:27The way the Lions were giving up chunk gains to the Jake Browning Bengals. And now you're faced with the proposition of a cornerback trio of Amik Robertson, Rockuson and Avante Maddox going into this game, which I like Amig Robertson a lot as a player, but that group in general, not my favorite place to be if you're going against Patrick Mahomes. And again, there may not be that much nickel if they're going to play as much base as they have. Also true. What are the Chiefs going to do as a response to that, I think is a very good question. In terms of how I would approach the Chiefs if I were the Lions, even with some of the cornerback injuries, and I'm curious if you agree with this, Derek, the Chiefs just have not been as good against man coverage this year as they have been against zone looks.

13:09and the Jags game is a really good example of this. Mahomes against the Jags, against zone coverage per next gen, 27 of 32 for 311 yards, two of nine for seven yards, and that pick six against man. They are 25th in the NFL, the Chiefs are, in EPA per drop back against man coverage this year. When teams have forced the issue against them and made it difficult for them to get the ball out quickly, it's a slightly different version and a slightly more off schedule version of this Chiefs offense. And so even with the cornerback injuries, Derek, it still feels like that might be the best path forward for a Lions team that's comfortable living in that world.

13:47It might. I think to me in this instance, I wonder if they're going to play man coverage like that and try to delay the play for two and a half seconds. Do you have enough of a pass rush to make good on that? Which I think has at times been a little bit of an issue for this Lions team outside of whenever Aiden Hutchinson can just beat up on a backup right tackle. So I think that that could be a consideration. I will say like for as much as I think the Chiefs offense is good and has found ways to move the ball in a way that they hadn't last year, like specifically getting guys open down the field.

14:14Still, none of these these guys are good one on one route beater. Like they just don't beat man coverage the way that you want. And then none of them are ball winners, like at least in some other cases, you can win against man coverage, not necessarily by separating, but at least just being bigger and better than the other guy. none of these guys really offer that and like not that Rasheed Rice does necessarily when he comes back but at least as like a can bully someone on a slant route he can do a little bit of that in a way that I just don't think any of the other guys on the roster can right now so maybe they still try to get really chippy with him I will say too that's probably what you want to do with Amik Robertson that's probably what you want to do with Rakia Sin I think especially Yasin you don't want him running you want him can we just muddy this up for two and a half seconds so maybe that's still the right call, but I don't know.

14:56I still feel like there's a chance for Mahomes to do a little bit of magic here. Speaking of the pass rush, I think it's worth mentioning that Ali McNeil likely going to be back for this game. That feels particularly important because while Al-Qadim Muhammad has been pretty good, I thought he was good at the end of last year. They kept him on the roster and he's actually been pretty decent this year. Other than him and Aiden Hutchinson, there's been zero from this team's pass rush, especially on the interior. We knew that coming in, right? The body types they had on the interior without Ali McNeil and Levi Onzerike, those are not pass rushers and so getting a lean mcneil back to give them one more credible pass rusher feels really important considering the construction for the rest of this defense let's get to the other side of the ball derrick the number one thing you are looking for when the lions have the ball in this game is what so i think to me what's interesting is that so i think there are two things that that this could be weird for the chiefs defense one they are a bad run defense unit right now like really really bad they're they tried to bring back derrick naughty after he signed like very briefly with the Jets.

15:55That has not really done a whole lot for them. And then we've talked about a lot of their depth issues on the edge and not being able to maybe rotate guys the way that they want. I think Chris Jones still has some moments, but it's probably not playing his best ball. And then we've talked about the linebackers before. They are not, they fill very particular roles and like Bolton is good between the tackles, but I think can struggle to the outside. So their run defense has been a little bit of an issue, which against the Lions on their best day is obviously going to be a problem. The other thing that's notable to me in this game is we've talked about the Lions.

16:22If you give them man coverage, good night. They're going to beat you, and Jared Goff is going to make those throws. Amon Rossi Brown is going to get open. The Chiefs are playing a little bit less man coverage right now, and again, that's because I don't think outside of McDuffie they trust their corners that much. They're playing 8 % to 10 % man coverage less than some of their previous years, just depending on which season you look at. They're at about 22 % right now, which again, I think is notable where even though I think the Lions offense is good and has answers for the blitz and stuff, We usually see the worst versions of golf.

16:52If you can just catch him with a weird simulated pressure or something like that. And I do think the Chiefs have been leaning a little bit more on that and some of their press coverage stuff, as opposed to just we're going to get in man and run with you four or five extra times a game. Feels like this is one of those games just based on the construction of the Chiefs front specifically. Reminds me of the way that the Lions approach the Ravens game, where there was nothing complicated about the run game. Like we weren't going to give you run throughs. We weren't going to give you any opportunities to play downhill.

17:18we were going to play downhill at you. It feels like it could be that sort of approach from Detroit again, because that's what those tackles have been, or those guards specifically have been able to do so far. Like those guards in the run game, both Tate Rattledge and Christian Mahogany have had their share of really nice moments. That another example of one of those questions we had about the Lions coming into this year and an area where they've been even better than I think even the optimistic case would lead you to believe. Yes, completely fair. And Derek brings up a very interesting point that I've been thinking about watching the Jags game back.

17:52And we talk about this in context of the Chiefs all the time, but it applies to Chris Jones specifically, where I just find myself thinking like, at what point do you think something has changed for Chris Jones? The way that at what point do you worry about the Chiefs? Like I'm far from being worried about the Chiefs. and there's always part of my brain where I'm like, ah, I'm not going to worry about Chris Jones until the weather is a lot colder than this. Like a guy like that has earned the right to play his way back into that form. But in the early part of this season, you can't, it's the same stuff we've done with Travis Kelsey too, where you're like, ah, looks a couple steps slower than he was when the Chiefs were at their very best.

18:34And I wonder if you're optimistic, a game like this maybe brings out the best in a Chris Jones? Or at what point do you have to start having those sorts of conversations about football mortality? I think that, why that's so important, why the Chris Jones question is so important is that the way that the defense is built and the way that the front is built, it's all complimentary players. And so you need Chris Jones to be like a universe in and of himself. And if he's not playing at that level, you really start to feel it. And I think the lack of just high-end talent on this team, Derek, extends into the back end as well.

19:08But you watch this team in the secondary right now. And, you know, we've talked about their struggles with Shamari Connor as their nickel over the last couple of years. He's still playing there. Trent McDuffie was a star when he played inside. He's now moved outside. Like there's aren't that many difference making players, especially on the third level of this defense. And I wonder how that looks against the Lions, because if they're going to be in nickel looks with Shamari Connor inside and the Lions are in any sort of 11 personnel with Amon Ross St. Brown in the slot, like that's just such a definitive win for the Lions, it just feels like the Chiefs might have to turn a slightly different direction.

19:44Like they had Roland Wallace inside and some other looks with McDuffie still outside. They have been hesitant to put McDuffie in the slot. And so I just feel like that's another area where the Chiefs defense is kind of outman coming into this game. That to me, the whole McDuffie thing feels like it's just such a good example of, or I think that to me is what paints the picture of why this defense doesn't feel as good as it did as its peak like maybe two years ago because when they were at their peak McDuffie was in the slot and he was maybe the best nickel corner for a very brief period of time when he was the nickel guy now that when they have moved I mean with the way that Jones is playing I think McDuffie is their best player and so when he's not even playing in the position that you want him to be playing and I think that's why you feel the defense being what it is and we've talked about the safeties before I think you see some good moments for them but the defense asks so much of their safeties and I I think sometimes the way that those guys are fitting in the alley from depth can be a little bit of an issue.

20:37And some of the disguise stuff that they want to do, they're not able to get into quite as much of it as they could when maybe Tyron Matthew was there. Justin Reed was there and those guys could handle that a little bit more. So I think you're seeing the deterioration there. And then the cornerback stuff, which we've talked about a million times of them, just they've tried to throw like all of these low level dart throws at the corner position to try to fix it. And just none of them have really worked out. And I know they'll get Christian Fulton back this week, but I just I don't know how much that moves me at this point.

21:05OK, I don't know how much it moves me either, but I do think it's noteworthy. And I do think I think of Christian Fulton and I'll be interested to see how well this ages against a team like the Lions. But Christian Fulton is a pretty prototypical CB2 in the sense that like he can be the guy that frustrates you and does his job. Kind of like what I just was saying about Tyrian Arnold, where he might draw a holding flag and give up a couple catches a game. But guess what? All CB2s in this league do that. If Christian Fulton can do that, if he's healthy enough to be viable at his job, I really want to know if that pushes Trent McDuffie back into the slot.

21:46And is that something Steve Spagnuolo is willing to do? Or how do they play this with a healthy Christian Fulton? I don't know. It just doesn't feel like they want to do it. I feel like they want to do it. And so I think that just might be the answer. If they don't do it this week with a slot God receiver, and I know I'm in Ross St. Brown's been playing more outside than he ever has, but he still plays a ton in the slot. Like if it doesn't happen this week, then that's a whole different conversation. And if I'm a chiefs fan, I'm probably starting to get a little existential with it where I'm like, all right, so we're just going to keep hammering square pegs into round holes all season long.

22:23Like, what are we doing? And so this matchup is very intriguing to me for that reason, where you should be healthy enough to throw a curveball at the Lions if that's what you want to do. Not even throw a curveball, just put your best player back where he's really good. Not that he's not good outside. You know what I mean? I just I think what they have available to them makes this interesting for me, especially against a player as good as Aminra. Get to our next one here. The 49ers at the Bucs, our other game of the week. The Bucs are minus three point favorites in this game. Both of these teams are 4-1 despite enduring a lot of injuries over the first five weeks of the season.

23:00What the Niners have been able to do with a backup quarterback, but also no George Kittle, no Ricky Pearsall last week, no Brandon Ayuk. We have injuries along the offensive line where you've got a backup in there. And then everything that they've been dealing with on defense without Nick Bosa. The schedule has been favorable, but I think the Niners deserve a lot of credit for staying the course over the first five weeks of the year. And then the Bucs, obviously, their offensive line was in tatters for the first four weeks. Last week, it's hard to even keep track of how many defensive backs are out and which guys are or not on the field.

23:31So the fact that both these teams are 4-1, pretty impressive. Where I wanted to start this from a big picture level, every once in a while, we'll get done with a recap show on like a Monday, Thursday, Sunday night. And I'll wake up the next morning and I'll be like, oh man, like that's the conversation about this right now. That was so far away from my thought process. That's why we didn't talk about it immediately afterward. And for me, Derek, last week with the Niners, that was that somehow in the aftermath of that win against the Rams, there was a little bit of a groundswell online about a quarterback controversy with Mac Jones and the fact that Mac Jones has always been this and now we're really realizing it.

24:14Mac Jones has been good for the Niners. Like what they are asking him to do, he is more than capable of doing it. I think the way he's playing on time, the way he's playing with anticipation, like it's impressive to watch him operate the offense, given what Mac Jones is. I just feel like we all have the collective memories of a goldfish. Like Brock Purdy has played one and a half games, essentially, since last season. He played week one and then he played hurt in a game before they put him back on the shelf. did we just forget the fact that Brock Purdy was like the best version of himself all of last year and is capable of all the things Mac Jones does and also a lot of things Mac Jones is not capable of and did we forget that like we've never like we've seen backup quarterbacks do this in this system before and like that that's the thing is like Mac Jones played well but there was no part of this where I was like man this makes the Niners a better team they just had a good game plan versus a good this was to me the other thing I think if there's any area that Mac Jones is a little bit better than Brock Purdy.

25:12It's that throwing one to 10, the ball comes out a little bit faster and he's a little bit more accurate in that area. The way to beat the Rams, the way that they play with all their zone coverage is to just pepper them underneath the way that he did. And he did a really good job of it. It was just like perfect game plan came together. He played a nice game on an island, which is obviously the other thing. If he did this on a Sunday, nobody really would have cared. He played a good game, but we wouldn't be having this conversation. So it's all of that. And then, yeah, like Brock Purdy, the only instances we've seen him this year, one against the Seahawks where week one against a very good defense, stupid stuff happens.

25:45He was OK. And then he plays against the Jaguars where he was clearly not healthy. Like that was very obviously not a healthy quarterback. He couldn't drive the ball. He did not look comfortable in the pocket. And so when those are the only two games we've seen and then Mac Jones has played, he played a pretty good game on that Thursday night. It's like we've forgotten what this offense can look like sometimes. They can do this at stretches. This is not to detract from what Mac Jones did, because I think that Mac Jones, what was asked of him in that game, the anticipation he was playing with, even on throws outside of the numbers, you just felt how in tune he was with what he was being asked to do.

26:17And that's not surprising. I remember talking to Sam Darnold last offseason just about his experience in San Francisco and how it kind of reframed the way that he saw NFL offense and the way that he saw a quarterback's role within an offense. And that staff and the way that that system works, they do a great job of kind of reteaching you how you're supposed to see certain progressions. Like the New England system, let's not take into account the year in Jacksonville, the New England system is not the sort of pure progression offense that we see from the Niners. And so guys who are dropped into it and have good decision making skills and can get rid of the ball quickly, they realize like, oh man, this is incredible.

26:55Like what a great way to play the position. I'm not surprised that Mac Jones has taken to that, but I still feel like we're talking about a couple regular season moments where when you get into the playoffs, you need some of the playmaking. You need some of the higher end stuff that Brock Purdy is going to be able to give you. And so I'm just a little bit surprised that anybody is having this version of the conversation right now. Maybe it's not even the memory of a goldfish. It's just the rush to have a stance, to have a take. Sure. And it's funny because it's the inverse of this. It took me like and probably y 'all, too.

27:26It took me like a year and a half to come around on Purdy. And and, you know, like me longer. We had these conversations about whether he needed to be MVP and the whole thing about like, what do you look like when it's not all available to you? I firmly came around on Brock sometime last season. And I'll push back a little bit on Derek in week one. Like, I know he had I think he threw two picks against Seattle, but he was making silly throws throughout that game. Like I thought he played really, really well for a division game season opener. So not like so now it took me forever to come around on Brock Purdy.

28:01And now people are trying to move past it like incredibly quickly. That's why I'm so frustrated about this. Like we finally got there with him after last year. I'm firmly confident Brock Purdy is good. I'm not ready to move off of that because of one Thursday night game. Let's talk about the Niners offense specifically in this game. Derek, we joked in real time during that Thursday night game last week that Shanahan always has had this with the Rams linebackers because they play twice a year and the Rams refuse to invest in any linebackers. And so every single time Shanahan plays against the Rams, he gets the sniper scope out and finds whoever the linebacker is that he can pick on.

28:36Here's the bad thing. Here's the bad news for the Bucs. That is the area of this Bucs pass defense that is the most vulnerable. Like what you can do to Servasier Dennis and it hurts my heart to say, but a little bit even Levante David at this stage, this feels like another one of those weeks where Kyle Shanahan might have the microscope out for an opposing team's linebackers. It really does. Because we talked about this last week, too, with with the Seahawks being able to do some of that. And really, until the last play of the game where they kind of get David into the window for the interception, like they were able to attack their their linebackers a little bit over the middle of field.

29:10And so and the thing is, you can get them in different ways. Like Dennis, I think you can just get his head spinning and he just doesn't really quite know where he needs to be. And then every now and then his tackling angles can be tough. And then David knows where to be. Can he get there in time? I think it's a different question. And I do think with as well as the Niners have really weaponized CMC again, and even some of their other backup tight ends in place of George Kittle, I think has been really good. So I think there's a chance they can abuse them there. On the flip side, the one thing I'm concerned about is this Niners team cannot run the ball.

29:41This Bucks team is still a really, really good run defense unit. and they're a tough run defense unit just in terms of guys who can really punch you in the face mask and really make it a difficult and violent and painful day. And this is not a Niners offensive line to me that moves people. They are at their best still a zone running team. But even that, I think they're mostly struggling at right now. That just makes me wonder how stubborn Kyle Shanahan might be. Because, I mean, you can you can effectively run the ball without just trying to pound it between the tackles. Right. And to go back to what we were talking about with the linebackers, the Bucks are third in receiving yards allowed to running backs this year.

30:23257 on 21 catches, which and on the off chance, you think that's all just check downs. No, they're also math. It's 10 yards of completion. Exactly. They are their third in the EPA per drop back on completions to running backs. And like if you think back to week one, you remember what Bajon Robinson did to them in the open field. Levante David missing 24 % of his tackles so far this season per PFF, which I'll throw him in with Chris Jones, where I'm like, you deserve for me to let you play your way into shape. But the first month has not been the Hall of Fame caliber standard that you associate with Levante David and Servasier Dennis as well.

31:03Like, yeah, this is an area where the 49ers can take advantage. And Christian McCaffrey, 387 receiving yards, is sixth in the entire league. that's insane everybody all players I feel like he's quietly done that too like I don't he has quietly done that and it's not going to slow down this week I'll tell you that right now in terms of the way the Bucs are built two stats I want to throw out about the Niners offense very quickly before we move on just to contextualize some of that CMC is bottom 10 in running back success rate so far this season among all backs per next gen I think you feel that most at left guard where they have a backup playing and it was a question coming into the year and I think they're missing Kittle too.

31:38As fun as Jake Tonjes is to say, he is not the same run blocker as George Kittle. And the other thing I feel like, thinking about the style of the passing offense that jumped out when I was re-watching that game against the Rams, the Niners just don't push the ball down the field with Mac Jones. That's another area where they're just so much more limited than they would be with Purdy. 6.2 % of his attempts have gone 20 plus air yards this year, which is 32nd among 33 quarterbacks. The only guy who's less is Aaron Rodgers. And it's the same with 15 plus air yards. And so they're just not pushing the ball downfield.

32:07And so teams are playing all this quarters against them because they're just not afraid of getting beat over the top. And so eventually you're going to start playing a defense that can make you pay for that. And so I do feel like over time, if Mac Jones continues to play, we might realize some of those limitations. Let's get to the other side of the ball when the Bucs have it in this game. I want to start with a conversation about the Niners defense just because we haven't talked about the Niners defense at all this year. They have a lot of young players. Robert Sala is back. So Derek, when you watch this version of the Niners defense, what has stuck out to you with your early impressions of that group?

32:43I think in some ways it's been what you thought it would be with Robert Sala. Like this is a guy that he loves his quarters, especially on early downs as like a base call. They are the only team running more quarters on first down than them is the Arizona Cardinals. Like they're running it at almost a 30 % clip on first down. Like this is their base. Let's make sure we have everything right call another thing that is interesting to me is that like front wise they do some weird stuff and then also at other times do no weird stuff like so on some of their like very short yardage situation second and ones third and ones whatever they are they'll put like three or four defensive tackles bigger bodies on the field to defend that stuff and I think it's just that it's kind of an acceptance of like all right we don't have pass rushers right now let's just make sure we can stop the run and then we'll pray that the coverage holds up behind it so they'll do some weird stuff in that sense.

33:32But like mechanically, they don't do anything interesting run fit wise. Like they don't really fire backers the way that other teams do. They don't send a whole lot of like blitzes, especially on early downs. They're a very like, we're just going to hope that the speed that we have up front can create enough penetration. And I think they're all well coached enough to do that. But I think that has been kind of my early impression of this team. And I think it's generally worked out for them for them to even be a league average defense after what they were last year. Pretty, pretty good success, especially with a lot of young players.

33:58You know what I hate for the Niners watching some of their games back is if they weren't the Niners like if they didn't have a seat at our championship table if if they weren't a team that we expected to push for the division and make a playoff run I'd be so excited about this defense yeah because they loaded it with young rookies and like they're gonna make mistakes right like Mikael Williams has been so fun to watch but he's not really pressuring the quarterback Upton Stout plays like a maniac like He's so fun to watch, but he's a third-round rookie. He's going to make five or six big mistakes in a game.

34:33We were talking about it before the show. Against the Rams, there were two or three snaps where you can see him realize in the moment that he's lost. It's actually more than two or three, but yes. If this was a team that was in a phase of a rebuild, you'd be like, this is a fun defense. But since we have aspirations for them, and I know they're resetting their books and trying to get young players up and going. But when you have real aspirations, it's tougher to live this way. And I just, I find myself watching them and I'm like, man, if Nick Bosa was coming back this season, we might be cooking with something here.

35:09Like if you had that sort of player who teams had to account for and was going to win on a regular basis and make life difficult, these guys could round into something really cool by the second half of the season. And maybe they still could. I just think it's going to be a lot harder. I bet you don't need me to tell you this. Two of the 10 worst single game pressure rates this season are the Niners game since Nick Bosa got hurt. You could feel it when you watch them. Bryce Huff is giving them a little bit of juice when he's on the field. Other than that, the best pass rusher on this team, and he had a couple of nice moments against the Rams last week, is Yitor Grosmatos, who's got a little pop to him this year.

35:47And he's hurt. And he's hurt. And that's even when he's playing inside is when he has some of his best moments. And so there's not a lot happening on the edge. Mikel Williams has been good against the run. He's had some nice moments there, but he's not really affecting the quarterback. And I agree with you, the defensive backs. Like I, there are some guys where I think it'd be a little bit more disappointing. Like I'm trying to like figure out how I want to say this. I'm enjoying watching them, even if they're negative players for the defense a lot of the time right now. You can love imperfect players.

36:14That's okay. I think that's one of my favorite parts of the job. They're my favorite types of players who are not perfect. I think that's a really good way to put it. And Upton Stout, they picked on him several times last week where it was just simple, not simple. It's a tough thing to deal with, but they know because the Niners play all this nickel, he has to be in the run fit and they're doing these insert plays with Jordan Whittington, where he has to cover Jordan Whittington after some of those play action fakes and you just see him in real time be like, oh shit, okay? And Whittington's passed him.

36:42He's having like three times in the game. And then Marquis Siegel, in the first, and Marquis Siegel's our fifth round pick that's currently starting at safety right now and Parker's league must office hurt. I wouldn't be surprised if he continued to play even with Mustafa coming back. But there are plays where he's just flying off the roof when they're in too high, making plays at the line of scrimmage against the run. And then he gets lit on fire on two deep completions deeper into that game. And so it's a little bit on either side with some of these young EBS, which you would expect. But when you're a team that has playoff and championship aspirations, the urgency starts to creep in a little bit.

37:15I, yes, I'm excited about what they could be, but they're in the unfortunate spot where it needs to be better if they're going to meet the organizational aspirations. And I have my doubts about that. And I'm curious to see how Robert Sala answers it, really. I mean, Mikkel Williams could become more as a pass rusher as the season goes along. He's really fun to watch. I think the hype on him looks justified after five games. But again, he's got one quarterback hit, no sacks. He's not doing that part of his game. He's always going to be a better run defender now that he was going to be a pass rusher.

37:51That was always going to be the case. I know blitzing is not Salah's thing, but when he has tried it, opponents are completing 68 % with seven touchdowns. There's no answer here. I don't know how you get better at it without Bosa. How easy the completions were to the back every single time the Rams blitzed in that game was something I absolutely noticed. Just a couple injury things to take into account with this game before we move on. It sounds like Malik Mustafa will be back. Jamel Dean is limited after missing last week's game, and I think that's important. There were a lot of Kendall Vildor snaps for the Bucs defense last week without Benjamin Morrison and Jamel Dean, so that's big.

38:27And then he played last week, but I want to at least acknowledge it. Having Tristan Wirfs back in the fold is so enjoyable. He was Tristan Wirfs. First game back, looked like Tristan Wirfs. Having him back makes you better at three positions, and I think you already feel that impact for the Bucs offense. The fact that they were able to weather that storm over the first month and now have come out on the other side, you got to be feeling pretty good. And I don't know the timeline for Gadecki's return either, but yeah, you could have your offensive line. It won't be at full strength because of Cody Mock being out for the year, but you get both of those guys back and having Worf's back with a four and one record is above and beyond what we thought might happen.

39:06Yeah, it's it's cool to watch. All right, we're going to take our first quick break and then get back with one thing from a few high profile week six games.

39:17let's start with Jags Seahawks feel like this easily could have been a game of the week we just have talked a lot about both of these teams over the last week or so and so that's why we pushed it a little bit further to decide Derek this one's all you buddy what is the one thing you're looking for in Jags Seahawks so last week I think I wanted some questions answered about the Jaguars offense in terms of what would the passing game look like against a coordinator like Steve Spagnuolo some of the blitzes that they'll run some of the coverages compared to what they saw all that stuff this week I want to see what does the run game look like against to me a very put together Seattle run defense unit one just the players are really good like Leonard Williams is again playing like one of the best defensive interior players in the league Ernest Jones is still playing really well and then their collection of eight million defensive ends even though I know a couple of them are going to be hurt for this game have also been really good in run defense and they're a very physical unit especially guys like I think Leonard Williams has been awesome.

40:09Ernest Jones will put hands on you as a linebacker. And so I think that's all interesting in particular against this Jaguars front because they've been able to run the ball well, but they've been able to run the ball well because they do a good job of moving people with some of their motion. Their guys know where to go in terms of like getting off of combo blocks and stuff on all their zone stuff. And so they've been like a well coached unit and Etienne has had a couple of pop runs, but they don't move people. They still struggle. If you can get a hand in their chest, they are guys who can lose at the line of scrimmage immediately.

40:37And so I just wonder what that looks like against the very physical and put together Seattle run unit, especially we just talked about the Niners to me are not a defense that mechanically does a lot of interesting stuff in the run game. Like they don't really fire backers. They don't really do that much stunting outside of the edges every now and then Seattle will move pieces around and really force you to think and test your rules as a run blocking unit. And so I'm just kind of excited to see which of those units is a little bit more patched up. I just I just love that we have Trevor Lawrence going as Mike McDonald in this game.

41:06And Derek is like, I really want to dig into the Jags run game against the Seattle run defense. We got to we got to zig where other people zag. But also like the Jags are just on a heater of stupid games, for lack of a better way to put it. I mean, we all watch the Chiefs game. The Niners game, we talked about how silly that was. It's back a couple of weeks after that. But the Bengals game, how with everything that's happened since then, how weird does that result loom? And Jags fans will tell you you're a DPI on the final drive away from potentially being unbeaten in Jacksonville. I mean, the winner of this, I think both of these teams, rightfully so, are getting some positive pub right now.

41:49But the winner of this game might be like the spotlight team next week where everybody's like, holy, holy shit. Look at the Jags. Look at the Seahawks. Yeah, I, these are like famous last words. I hesitate to even say this. I believe a little bit more in what the Seahawks have done down to down that I do with the Jags. Do you think that's fair? Like the fact that I have more ingrained faith in who the Seahawks have been five weeks into the season? That doesn't seem crazy to me. Even as the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence guy, the Seahawks are a more put together team here. I do trust them a lot more in terms of what they've done down to down.

42:20And I think like what the Jaguars have done is impressive. But Seattle is like a I'm pretty sure they're a good team. The Jaguars, I'm still like something feels like it could go wrong, even if I do think you're good. I want to ask you this, Derek, before we move on. I'm sure you rewatched the Seattle game plan against the Bucs in preparation for the show on a couple different fronts. Did you feel like the Seahawks game plan and just some of the things they did defensively in that game were a little weird? Like, I understand they're trying to... In what way? Some of, like, the simulated pressures and the way they were using Emanwari as a blitzer, like, it just felt like...

42:50McDonald is usually so in tune situationally with what he needs and all the calls, and, like, it just feels like he's always one step ahead and like what he's putting out against certain looks and certain down and distances. And it just felt like last week there was a lot of things thrown against the wall that didn't have positive results. And I understand they were banged up on the back end. So he's just trying to do some funkier stuff. But there were some moments where I was like, what are you trying to accomplish with this right now? It's like a half-hearted simulated pressure with Emanwari coming off the edge.

43:21Like it just didn't feel like Seattle's defense in the way that it had over the first four weeks of the season. well and so that's I kind of think that I kind of agree with and that to me is a two-pronged issue one going into the game trying to figure out what you even want to do with Eminwari which I think we've talked about before and I've expressed in particular he's just a very gonna be a niche player to me in the NFL and kind of has to be moving forward to be any sort of useful and I think that's going to disrupt maybe some of what you want to do in coverage with your back end and then again almost every guy that they had in the back end was just getting banged up in this game and I think he started to lose a little bit of faith in terms of how that was going to get buttoned up.

43:56And so I think to me, this was just like a very weird week in terms of that stuff. The Bucks are also in particular going to be a very vertical offense. And so I think they were just kind of particularly set up to expose them down the field if they could get some of that stuff blocked up, which they have done. Like that's the thing with the Bucks missing a lot of guys in terms of, you know, personnel in terms of how well they can hold up against box, but it's still a very buttoned up pass protection unit. Yes, it absolutely is. Last thing we've talked about the Bucks being explosive. I forgot to mention this in the Niners game, but I think it's something just to keep in mind as we're watching this.

44:27I mentioned all the quarters that the Niners play, one of the heaviest quarters teams in the league. The Bucs have been the most explosive passing offense in the league versus quarters coverage over the last two years. Both of Ibuka's big catches down the field last week were against some sort of quarter structure on the backside. And then he had a third one on a 19-yard catch. The Bucs have the most 20-yard completions against quarters coverage of any team in the NFL the last two seasons. They just have a lot of quarters beaters within that offense. And so just one more layer of that matchup to keep in mind, because I forgot to mention it when we were talking about that game.

44:58Let's get to our next one here. One thing from Bears commanders. I was going to start this conversation with, I was making fun of Derek and then I was going to do the same thing. I was going to lean into. Yeah, that's a good point. You're no better. Well, I changed my mind, I think. So it makes me a little bit better. I was going to lean into what the Washington run game would look like against this Bears run defense. Washington has been one of the most efficient run games in the league against non-stacked boxes. They have the number one rushing successor in football per next gen. The Bears run defense just got absolutely stomped on by the Raiders the last time we saw them play.

45:33But then I remember that Caleb Williams and Jaden Daniels were playing in this game and we should probably talk about that in some capacity. Sometimes it's okay to do the obvious topic. And yeah, I've been, again, you learn so much about a team by being in their home market and it makes perfect sense. But to be here in Chicago and witness the existential dread that Jaden Daniels puts in Bears fans, because this is the guy who's been better than Caleb to this point and could have been a bear. It's been fun. It's fun to watch Bears fans grapple with that. And I think this is a very meaningful matchup for Bears fans because you want to see proof that you didn't screw up the choice at number one, even if it is only just one game.

46:17I think this is just about checking in again now that we're a third of the way through year two for these guys and a lot of things and a lot of the circumstances have changed, right? We had so many conversations last year, Derek, about the lessons we've learned about what quarterback situation actually means, given what happened with the Bears offensive infrastructure last year and what happened in Washington. Jayden Daniels was phenomenal, but Cliff and the run game, and just some of the ideas they were trotting out were just so much better than we ever could have anticipated. And in Chicago, the bottom fell out.

46:47Well, this year, it's still been imperfect for the Bears offensively, but you've seen very real progress from what Caleb Williams has been in this Ben Johnson offense. And so I think just the mirror and those guys looking at each other and just like sizing each other up in terms of where we are, it feels different six weeks into this season than it did at the end of last season. Even if Jaden Daniels is still definitively has kind of announced himself as one of the better quarterbacks in the league. Right. Like so much of what happened last year with Washington was just Jaden Daniels being really good.

47:18But again, you make the point of like Chicago going into this last season, Chicago's roster looked better than Washington's. It certainly did. But then once you start to saw things how play out, how much help Caleb was actually getting in terms of the offensive design, he was he was drowning in what they were asking him to do. Whereas Washington, Cliff gave Daniels a chance with a lot of their stuff, the way that they were blocking stuff up, the way that they were using him in the run game, the way that the run game outside of him was put together. Like they just did such a good job of giving the quarterback a chance.

47:47And I really think that that's all they needed out of Chicago this year. Like, again, they still have some of their issues. The offensive line has probably not been as good as what they paid for it to be. And I think that that's been an issue. I think they're still figuring out what they want to do with DJ Moore. The backs are still not very talented, but they are at least giving him a chance and like letting him operate within the offense. And I do think that you've seen Caleb Williams take to that like I think accuracy wise he still bugs me like he still misses more throws than I think that you would like but in terms of his misses there's so many bizarre misses still like a lot of the throws like to the flat and check down throws that he just dirts is like just one of the weirder aspects to watching him still and I think part of that is every now and then he just gets like he just speeds himself up a little too much to make the throw and it comes out a little bit too fast and again I think that's something that to you know a year or two from now he can just when he gets more reps he's still a young player that all that stuff can sort of start to calm down but I do think for now like within the structure of the offense you've seen him be better of going one two three actually triggering on the ball because we've talked about this before I think last year he saw the field well he just didn't believe it when the throw was there and wouldn't take it and now he's actually taking it and so I think that that's been huge and I also do think he's been a little bit more confident making plays outside of the pocket in a way that I think for whatever reason last year, he was just a little bit hesitant to do it, but he's, he's been better of going a little bit back to what got him drafted first overall in the first place.

49:12And then you see that how that plays into the sack avoidance, which has been such a huge difference in his game. I mean, the fact that he's not getting sacked at an astronomical rate, in part because he's willing to pull the ripcord a little bit quicker. That's been a huge point in this bears offense, not being a train wreck specifically with this game, just the couple, one thing on each side of the ball, these quarterbacks are going to have to work through. Washington, I think the best version of them, and they literally leaned into this last week against the Chargers, some of the simulated pressures that they use, and they did a good job of doing that last year.

49:40And so I think challenging the Bears' pass protection with maybe a couple new starters along the offensive line, we'll see if Darnell Wright is back. We'll see what they end up doing at left tackle now that Braxton Jones has kind of been benched, if it's going to be Theo Bennett. And so there's things that take into account there. And I think the Bears, if you look at the numbers, They've had some really nice Splashing moments Against man coverage this year I still want to make Caleb work for it And I think some of those Simulated pressures can do that On the other side of the ball I still maintain that I want to play man coverage Against Washington Like if he's going to beat me With his legs every once in a while Fine But I just think This Washington offense From the pass catching talent Debo Samuel's missing practice Terry McCorn is still banged up And just the way that They structure the passing game Like you watch them play Against the Chargers They have all of these designs where they have these four strong looks and they're overloading and flooding these zones.

50:30They have answers against zone coverage and he's just throwing into these huge windows. I want to make him make tight throws given that those pass catchers and the Bears will do that. The Bears this year on non-blitzes have played man coverage, cover one on 30 % of their snaps. That is the second highest rate in the league. And I think getting Kyler Gordon back, being a little bit healthier on that side of the ball and maybe trying to account for him as a scrambler by pushing the pocket, using some of those big, long bodies that you have. That's how I would approach Washington in this game, even if I think it's a pretty uphill battle.

51:01This is a week to do it. I mean, injury stuff famously ages terribly, but if Debo's not practicing, Terry McLaurin dealing with something as well. I mean, we've talked about how much you don't love the receiving options behind Terry McLaurin when everything else is going well. So if it's depleted or even not at full strength, I hesitate to call an advantage with what Jaden Daniels can do, but I would be interested to see somebody have the guts to play him that way. I think it could be fun to watch. I would, because again, the scrambling stuff terrifies you, but one, Robert, I think you made the point, he's going to do that anyway.

51:38He's going to do it anyway. Even if you put eyes on him as a zone defender, he's probably a better athlete than whoever you are anyway, so what does it matter? Yeah, everybody says, spy the quarterback, and then Jaden Daniels runs. Well, you got to run him down. Yeah, you got to catch him. It doesn't matter if you can see him. Yeah, the idea that if they're playing more zone coverage and TJ Edwards is watching him. It's going to matter. I don't really care about that. I would think just play a little bit stickier all the time. Last one here, Dave. Bill's Falcons. What is one thing you're looking for in this one?

52:07I just want to know who the Falcons are. It's a fair question. Does that feel off base to y 'all? Like every year there are a couple. They lost 30 to nothing to the Panthers two weeks ago. Do you realize, and I know they were off. They were off. So it happened during their bye week. but during their three weeks ago, I guess the Falcons rose to number one in defensive DVOA over their bi-week. They are the number one team in defensive DVOA. They were top five going into the week off. They're also 21st in offense. So they sit middle of the pack in DVOA overall. The defensive has had some nice moments like James Pierce Jr.

52:44looking like a player. The rookie DBs, we've talked about them on this show, Xavier Watts and Billy Bowman looking good. But do you feel like you have a good grasp on how good that unit is specifically considering okay they got they got baker week one and he diced them up and the bucks won that game at the buzzer since then they've played jj mccarthy bryce young and marcus mariotta yes like is that an accurate screenshot of what the atlanta no conversely the offense is very similar in the sense of they're all over the map in terms of how well they play. Like Michael Penix Jr. in week one and week four was top 10 in EPA per drop back and success rate.

53:29And then in weeks two and three, he was bottom 10, including the 30 to nothing performance against Carolina that led to that quote where he was like, I just have to throw to the open receiver. And to his credit, he, by the way, he really did it against Washington for whatever that's worth. I think that was, I didn't see a ton of that game because it was a noon game. There was other stuff going on that weekend that we didn't talk a lot about it on the recap. And then y 'all did it on the Hangover show. I got my eyes on it in depth for the first time this week. And I was getting geeked about Michael Pence again.

54:04I was like, oh, this is the vision. This is the Atlanta team that we theorized could push for the division. And you're feeling great about all that. The running backs are just doing whatever the hell they want to. all game long. Penix is ripping it, throwing with anticipation. He had a couple throws over the middle in that game. Even the interception, I mean, he got picked off, but I kind of liked the audacity where he tried to float it over Mikey Sanders still and just lost basically. But he was doing everything you want a young quarterback to do in that game. And then you remember like, oh, but the Atlanta game or the Carolina game, excuse me, happened.

54:43And I just, I don't know what to make of this team. And I love that they're playing the Bills because we can sit here and we can pick the Bills apart. We can talk about their defense being underwhelming. We can talk about the receiving options stepping up. We still know that they're the Bills and they are consistently going to deliver and be one of the better teams in the NFL. And so I love that this is a litmus test against one of the league's most consistent teams over the last five, six years. and just show me something. Play the good football. Call the touchdown plays against Buffalo in prime time.

55:21I would like to see it. I'd like to see how much of that carries over into a big spot because right now I don't know what to do with the Falcons. It's a very good test on both sides of the ball because I think this Bills offense is a good test for anybody. And so I think we're going to learn a little bit about the Falcons defense against a more real NFL offense than the ones they played against. And I think on the other side of the ball, it's a good test for Michael Penix. Like the bills have issues against the run. I think that's going to be what Atlanta leans into in this game and it should be.

55:46But the bills, we watched that Washington game back again. And Derek and I talked about this in the moment. The communication issues that Washington has while playing zone coverage against some of those motions, like they're just not that buttoned up in that area. The bills are very buttoned up in that area. They use more disguise than anybody else in the league. They're still a very comfortable zone heavy team. And I think that's going to force Michael Penix to be working through a lot in that game. And so I think they're going to lean into the run game as the engine of that offense because they should against Buffalo.

56:14But I think in terms of the passing game and the defense, this is a good week for us to learn a little bit more about them. And I would go as far as to say I don't even care what the result is. I don't need the Falcons to win this game. I just want them to play competent football. I would like I would like this to be a fun, watchable game, a close game. Put your best foot forward. And even in a loss, I think that would be a positive development and something fun to learn about the Falcons if they can do it. All right, we're going to take one more quick break here and then come back and spend a little bit of time on Sicko Street.

56:51Each week, we like to pick a few games that might not seem overly appealing at first glance and talk about why these might be worth watching. A couple notes before we get into the games from this week's slate. It makes me sick that in week six, we're just not talking about Rams-Ravens on this show. But what would we say? Lamar's not playing. It seems like the Ravens are probably going to lose to the Rams and be one in five six weeks into the year. We'll talk about that in another way a little bit later, but that's my personal sicko street this week is the fact that we're not talking about that game.

57:24The other one, we, I think, do a very good job on this show of trying to tell you why each team has merit, right? Why this team is worth watching, why you should be interested in this. We do it in the division previews. We try to extend it as just a general vibe all the way through the season. I'm telling you right now, if you are not a fan of either of these teams, or even if you are, do not watch Titans Raiders. Do not tune into this game. If it's crazy and stupid, you will find out about it later and you can somehow throw it in a multi-viewer. where you can catch a little bit of the Cliffs on Red Zone.

57:59If you care about your mental health and your emotional well-being, there's just no reason for you to watch this game on Sunday. Anything Cam Ward or Geno Smith does in this game that's good will make it to social media by the time the night game kicks off. The fact that I like Cam Ward and Geno Smith is one of the reasons I can't watch this game is because it's going to just frustrate me and make me very sad. Well, that's the thing. It's like, in some ways, it's like, okay, I love these two quarterbacks and both defenses at least have one superstar that I should at least be able to rally around.

58:30And I look at this game and I'm like, especially in the window that it's in where it's in the afternoon and there's one good afternoon game, just go watch that one. Like, don't even bother with this. Let's get to the two games we are going to hit on Sicko Street this week. Derek, you wanted to talk about Chargers Dolphins. You're the official man of Sicko Street. This is where you live. You have property here. Tell us why we should watch Chargers Dolphins in week six. I own like if our show is a Monopoly board, I have like all of I own all of sick. So I want to be clear. I don't even really believe this, but Chargers Dolphins.

59:05Always a great way to start your tag. I know Chargers Dolphins. This Chargers team is extremely beat up. The offensive line is down to like their eighth man. The receiving core is still to me like kind of an issue. Obviously, they're just missing. Now they're missing their best running back in O'Marrion Hampton. Like they're just beat up all over the place. Glomack I think is still not healthy like it's just all of this stuff the Dolphins are a bad football team they are especially bad on defense they are maybe the worst defense in the league and their run defense is particularly bad but here's the thing if the Chargers are as beat up as they are on the offensive line don't have any of their backs are they really going to be able to abuse what the Dolphins are up front I don't know and for as bad as I think this Dolphins team is I do still think the pass rush is talented even though they were early a little bit they They were not that good in the season and they will throw some weird stuff at you.

59:53And this Chargers offensive line with as beat up as they are, I think they're prone to giving up a couple of sacks in a couple of big plays. So you could get some big plays that way. And then their offense still between A-Chan and Waddle. You can still get a lucky one huge explosive or two. And so I just this feels like it could be one of those games that is just ugly for 55 minutes. and the Dolphins get away with one or two really good pop plays at the end and they steal a win in a season that I don't really think anyone cares if the Dolphins win or lose this game, but they might get away with it because of that.

1:00:24I want to talk about the trade the Chargers made this week. Just we have not talked about that at all. And it was just kind of like a, oh, okay. All right. That was my reaction to it. The joke that I made was that sometimes you'll just be talking to one of your friends in your fantasy football league about something completely different. Just like checking in with them. And at the end of the conversation, you're like, Like, what if we just did this because we're bored? That kind of feels like Joe Hortiz and Eric DaCosta, who worked together for like a decade. Like, they're just catching up over the phone.

1:00:49Like, I'm kind of frustrated with how things are going right now. Anybody you want to give us? That's kind of what this trade feels like. The fact that the Chargers are just willing to roll with Tony Jefferson and now Elijah Molden at safety probably speaks to how competent Tony Jefferson has been. I think that part of it is kind of fascinating. Obviously, the Ravens secondary is completely beat up. And so now you have another startable safety to bring into the fold in Gilman. And then with Odafe Owe going back to the Chargers, Derek, this team had issues with their edge depth before the season.

1:01:19And that's before Khalil Mack even got hurt. So even with Tui Tuapolo 2 playing pretty well for them, they absolutely needed another edge body somewhere along the way if Mack is going to be out for a while. And so I think in terms of personnel and what these teams need, it does make sense on both sides. and the Chargers now say, or excuse me, the Ravens save a lot of money because O.A. was playing on that fifth year option. I think it was 13 million. And so they're saving a pretty good chunk of change over the rest of the year. And like the thing with O.A. is he's obviously not delivered on what he was supposed to be as a prospect, but he at least in theory has some pop in a way that like Tui Piloto is a good player, but he to me is more of a technician, kind of muddy stuff up, really good run defender.

1:01:56And I think even Murphy behind him is a little bit of that type of player. So at least to have someone that in theory, they can just say, hey, go pin your ears back and go do something, I think makes a little bit of sense for them. The other trade that I wanted to hit, just very quickly, obviously Joe Flacco gets traded to the Bengals this week. We have not talked about that at all. Derek, you and I were joking on the Hangover show that the league needed to step in and force the Giants to trade Jameis Winston to the Bengals in order to save a lot of people's experiences. Bengals fans, anyone who has a Bengal in fantasy football, so many people's lives every Sunday are being ruined because of what Jake Browning was doing to the Bengals.

1:02:34Jim R. Chase and T. Higgins. Yes, those guys are less, I care less about them. They're making too much money for us to be worried. They're going to be great, but you can feel the frustration. This isn't as good as Jameis, but I will allow this. This is an acceptable solution because Joe will put it up there and he will put it in the general vicinity of the very good pass catchers, and that is enough for me, at least in the short term. How he'll do behind that offensive line, we don't have to touch on that, But this is good enough for me to give it the old rubber stamp and watch the Bengals more than I would have with Jake Browning.

1:03:09Well, and so that's the thing. I do not think Flacco is equipped to handle this offensive line, but neither was Jake Browning. The negative plays were going to happen no matter what. And so if Flacco can at least, if the 50-50 balls can at least be more accurate than whatever Jake Browning was doing, especially against the Lions, honestly, that's enough to make this team like halfway watchable. And six months from now, when the Steelers sign Joe Flacco as their insurance policy heading into the draft, he'll have the whole set. Set him up on the bookshelf. The collector's item, the whole AFC North.

1:03:41One more game on Sicko Street here. Cowboys-Panthers. This is all you, buddy. Why should we watch Cowboys-Panthers on Sunday? This feels like cheating, to be honest with you. If we're being real, calling this a Sicko game, if I've got to sell you on watching this, I wonder how much you love football because this has some real potential to be a banger. And I know these aren't good teams. Neither team has a winning record, but there is a lot of potential for the type of football people like to watch. This could be a big 12 game, you know, like Baker Mayfield, Patrick Mahomes, 2017, 2016, 63 to 59, whatever the score of that game was.

1:04:18Dallas is a top five offense in the NFL. It's largely because Dak Prescott is playing at an all pro level. maybe the best football of his career. Their run game has been really good. Exactly. Their running game is also the most efficient in the league. Second in success rate, first in rushing yards over expected. Lowest percentage of stuffed runs in the league, which again, considering how many injuries they've had on the offensive line is wild. And then you've got the Panthers going against a Dallas defense that is abysmal. So even if we're not like 100 % sold on the Bryce Young renaissance after the second half against Miami, I mean, this is a Dallas defense that leads the league in passing yardage allowed 30 explosive passing gains on the year.

1:05:0256 % of throws against the Dallas secondary have been to an open man, which leads the league. The rush defense isn't terrible, but they've also allowed 21 explosive runs. And now remember what Rico Dowdle did last week. And then remember that it's the Rico Dowdle revenge game. So there's a lot of good elements at play here. And I will not be surprised. I think I've said this every week, but if this is just the most fun game of the early window, would you really be surprised? No, I need it to be because I'm spot starting Bryce Young in fantasy this week because the current state of the Dallas Cowboys offense.

1:05:35I don't think that's a bad play. Like, I think Bryce can at least get you to 18, 20 points. When this is a 19 to 16 finish and we've watched 10 seconds of it, I'm blaming you. Don't say that. Before we get to what we want to know this week, we had one more game that we wanted to hit. And we're actually going to try out a take tribunal for this one. And we have a couple takes that we wanted to use to kind of dig into this game. Every once in a while, one of us will just throw out a take and we'll see how the other two are feeling about it. We'll take their temperature about it. Here's what I wanted to propose to you guys as we find a way to talk about Cardinals Colts.

1:06:10As I'm looking at the current state of the AFC and I look at the Indianapolis Colts, who are top five on offense and defense in DVOA through the first five weeks of the season. and you watch the Ravens struggling. We talk about some of the issues that the Chiefs have personnel-wise, especially on defense. Are we at a point five weeks into the year where if you remove the quarterback from the equation, I know that Daniel Jones has been great, but I think the Bills with Josh Allen are still probably a better team than Daniel Jones. Mahomes and Allen are going to tip the scales. Exactly. So if we remove the quarterback from the equation and all we're taking into account is overall supporting cast, and that includes the other 21 starters, to like 25 guys who were going to play, plus the coaching staffs on both sides of the ball.

1:06:55Derek, are the Colts the most complete team in the AFC five weeks into the year with that framing? Not quite, but I get it. I think they would probably be number two for me. I still think it's Denver. I think I would still rather have Denver a little bit because I know statistically the Colts defense has been a little bit better. If I'm drafting a defense right now, I still definitely want Denver's. and I think the offensive line is slightly better. I still think the play calling is a little bit better. To me, the edge for Indy is the skill players, but I trust Sean Payton enough. It would be okay.

1:07:26You really think you think Sean Payton is a more additive offensive play caller right now than Shane Steykenis? Yes. I think that's fair. I think he's good enough that it wouldn't hold me back. I think that would be clear if the quarterback was playing better. I think that's a good take. I think that's a good take on Derek Starr. I don't want to take away from Steichen, by the way. He's been fantastic this year. And I think you even talked about it going into the season. Now that he has Jones, who can handle a little bit more of the offense that we were going to see some of that. And he's been great.

1:07:58I just Sean Payne's been doing it for two decades. And I still think that what he's getting out of some of these pieces is pretty incredible. Yeah, I think I think it's probably fair. When you look at the defensive personnel for the Colts, I think there's still enough holes that give you pause about that group. Talk about that other outside corner spot, that other off ball linebacker spot. The front is solid, but it's not the group that the Broncos are bringing to the table. I think part of the reason that I may be pushing this a little bit is that I think Lou has done a really good job with that group so far through five weeks.

1:08:26I think Steichen's done a fantastic job. And I'm probably been like poisoned by how good the pass catchers and the skill position players look for the Colts, right? Like I'm probably over weighing that where the Broncos offensive line is a better group. But when you just consider like what Jonathan Taylor has been, what Josh Downs has been, what Alec Pierce has been when he's been healthy, what Tyler Warren has been, and the job that Shane Steichen has done with that group and with Daniel Jones. That has so much weight for me, but if I'm taking a step back and I'm taking a breather, it still probably is the Broncos.

1:08:59Can I answer your take with a take that I was formulating when I knew we were going to talk about this? I think, I don't think Jonathan Taylor gets enough credit. I 100 % agree with this. It's time to put Jonathan Taylor on the Saquon Henry, Josh Jacobs tier. Honestly, I think most people would say Jonathan Taylor is better than Josh Jacobs. I absolutely would. And I think, like, injury and playing for defunct Colts teams have doomed this man to, like, not getting the amount of credit he deserves. And I had to go back and remind myself that when JT had his big season in 2021, that was the year the Colts were an inexplicable Carson Wentz meltdown away from making the playoffs.

1:09:42Remember when Carson Wentz was the Colts? I do remember that, unfortunately. The Carson Wentz meltdown is explicable insofar as he's Carson Wentz. Jonathan Taylor, he's top 10 in rushing yards over expectation right now. He leads the league in forced missed tackles. He leads the league in yards after forced missed tackles. He's fourth in the league in explosive runs. He leads the league in yards after contact. He's freaking incredible. And even, I don't know where this goes for the Colts, but it was a nice reminder that this is one of the absolute best running backs in the NFL. And we should talk about that more.

1:10:19And we should recognize that a little bit more. What you're saying is you think the Colts have the best overall supporting cast of any team in the AFC. Because Jonathan Taylor is so good. I think I would still take Denver, but I love this thought exercise because remember, we were smart enough to call this out in July and be like, how many supporting casts are you taking over Indianapolis without the quarterback? But we couldn't get there because of the quarterback situation. And I don't know the answer to this. We constantly get these reminders that like, hey, there's so much that goes into this aside from quarterback play and who's coaching him and who he's working with can have a big effect on that.

1:10:56but the weight of the position still holds us back in a lot of ways. I don't know how to resolve that conflict, but every now and then you just get a reminder like this where you're like, this was always a really good roster. They just needed a quarterback to make it all work. And I definitely didn't expect Daniel Jones to be doing it this well, but it's been fun to watch. Even if we land on the Broncos, the answer to this question, the fact that the Colts are even in the conversation about all this other stuff five weeks into the year, I think says a lot about what this cold season has felt like on the other side.

1:11:25in this game. You had like a mini take tribunal that you wanted to trot out after we started talking about this game as it relates to the Cardinals. What was it? I just, I got more, I honestly, this is a spicy one. I'm really excited about it. I got more intrigued in this game. And that sounds so mean because I've always been a fan of him, but I got more intrigued by this game when I heard that Kyler Murray was missing practice for Arizona. And I found myself wondering if this could be a little bit of a Ewing theory situation, a little bit of a situation where if you remove the face of the team and put Jacoby Brissett in there, might this be a situation where the Cardinals are at least play better in this situation?

1:12:07I can't get there with like better over the course of the year, but I'm more interested in what could happen here, especially it's a Jacoby Brissett revenge game. If he does make this start going back to his time as a Colt, like every, how many quarterbacks have made their way through Indianapolis over the last six years? Every single fringe quarterback in the NFL is going to have a revenge game against the Colts at some point. All I'm saying is the spread on this is Indy minus seven and a half. And I'm more confident that the Cardinals cover with Jacoby Brissett than I would be with Kyler Murray.

1:12:38Derek, are you open to the idea that the Cardinals offense might be better with Jacoby Brissett based on the way that Kyler Murray has played so far so far this year? I'm open to some end of season quarterback conversations with the Cardinals. I'm not open to the idea that Jacoby Brissett is better for this offense. That one, I think it's a bridge too far for me. Derek, if we're going all the way to January, I'm with you, man. But like one afternoon in October where Jacoby Brissett is just getting the ball out to what are some good pass catching weapons. But he doesn't get the ball out. That's the problem.

1:13:09He'll be inspired. He'll play inspired. I can get you here is that the Cardinals run game has been DOA the entire season. So I don't think that the quarterback change is going to do much for to solve the ills that we've seen from them. Why I think this is compelling is that we're going to get to the end of the year and I'm sure they're going to be some. What is the future for Kyler in Arizona type conversations? And so what Jacoby percent looks like in this situation, I think, leads and feeds into that a little bit. So I think that's why it's worth paying attention to it, because as an experiment, I think it is going to be noteworthy when we consider like the near term future for the Arizona Cardinals.

1:13:45It's always more interesting shaking things up, even if only temporarily, than what has been a mess to this point in the season, just one more week. Like, again, like this change, at least for a week, gives me more confidence that we could see a higher ceiling from the Cardinals than we have over the first five weeks. I do believe that. Let's talk about what we want to know coming out of week six in the NFL. Dave, kick us off. What do you got for me? Derek touched on this with Sicko Street. And I hate to be the guy that speculates on job security, but with the vibes coming out of Miami, I'm just curious.

1:14:21I'm curious how close we are to the late night Adam Schefter, Ian Rapoport notification as it pertains to Mike McDaniel. And this really this feels like a situation where we could be getting close to the brink. And I think because nobody had super high expectations for the Dolphins coming into the year, I think if it's even like if I think it's fair to say that that it's gone under the radar, like how bad some of this has been. We remember the week one game against Indy where they just got wiped off the field like a bug on a windshield. Late game special teams disasters and a two-a-pick sink you against New England.

1:15:02They played well against Buffalo, but another two-a-pick sinks you against the Bills. You beat the only winless team in football in a disgusting Monday nighter. And then you blow a 17-0 lead against Miami. Like, it has been an ugly... Against Carolina. I'm sorry. Against Carolina. Sorry. ugly, ugly start to the season. And now you like Derek laid out the case for how the Dolphins could win this game. And this feels like a situation to me where they either rally and play a really good game, even if they don't find a way to win, like you rally behind your coach knowing that the stakes are a little bit raised and people are speculating about Mike McDaniel's job security, or you play the type of game that forces ownership's hand and we get a late night news notification.

1:15:46like I do think this is the type of situation we're in and if it's not next if it's not this week it could be in the next two weeks and so I I have a close eye on how that game plays out because I do think it kind of matters also every single time he's at a podium right now he just feels he's so beat he looks defeated this is I mean it's a job where like it ages you pretty quickly unless you're Pete Carroll and so the fact that Mike McDaniel used to be so bright-eyed early in his tenure in Miami and now looks like he does every time he stands up there at the lectern, I think says a lot about how this is all going.

1:16:21I don't know if they have to win, but they have to look like a competent football team. I think that's important. My what do I want to know coming out of week six? Are the Steelers going to win the AFC North six weeks into the season? Like, is that going to be something that happens? It kind of feels like it, doesn't it? We're looking at the standings right now. We just said, so Lamar Jackson very likely is not going to play against the Rams. The Rams are a good team. The Texans have not been a good team over the first month, and they beat the shit out of the Ravens last week. I feel pretty good that the Rams are probably going to beat the Ravens on Sunday if Lamar doesn't play and something crazy doesn't happen.

1:16:58So if that happens, and the Steelers beat a Browns team where Dylan Gabriel was making his second start, and the Bengals lose with Joe Flacco against the Packers, which all seems like it very well might happen, The Steelers will be four and one. The Bengals will be two and four and the Ravens and Browns will be one and five. Those Steelers will have like a very real inside track to win the division. It might just be over six weeks into the year. And I don't even know if the Steelers are any good. Okay. But what if Joe Flacco does the double on green Bay? What if he does it again? Do we, do we know if that's ever happened where a player like on different teams has beat the same team?

1:17:38I got to dive into true media. We'll find out on Sunday. Yeah, somebody has to have this ready to go, but we should have looked that up. That would be insane. That's all I got. I'm just curious. Is this going to be over? Is the AFC North going to be over? The Steelers are, it's just amazing how they continue to do this over and over and over again. And it's always slightly different, right? It has the same general vibe, but there's always one little wrinkle about why it feels different. What if I told you in August that the Steelers might have to decide like rest versus rust? like ah we locked up the four seed three weeks ago like does rogers need reps or not putting rogers on ice in week 15 because there's six games up in the division race but are nowhere near the top seed in the afc like that's exactly what it feels like is going to happen derrick i i can't even believe we're about to do this what is your you want i this is what i want to know coming out of week six i mean this could have been sicko street if we're being honest but so my answer here is a lot more granular and a lot less yeah overarching than all of what you guys have I just listen we haven't talked about the international game at all and so I'm going to do that a little bit the Broncos have only really used RJ Harvey against really bad linebackers and they did that definitely against the Bengals the Jets second and third level of the defense is very bad right now and so I kind of just want to see how much Sean Payton plays with this new toy here I you need help i probably dave and i both are like you know these these existential questions about these teams and the implications for what it might mean for the league and this man who is troubled is like i can't wait to wake up at 6 30 in the morning and see shawn payton is going to use rj harvey against the jets linebackers you're not even in central time right now you're you're getting up extra early for that i'm not okay it's going to be early i'm not even like a big rj harvey proponent And I'm going to be sitting here looking at like, is it a 45 % snap share or is it a 32 % snap share?

1:19:33I don't know. We're going to find out. I love, we come to these production meetings every single week and I cannot wait to hear what Derek's answers to the questions are going to be. Because you can give me a thousand guesses and I would never be anywhere close to what he comes back with. Every week during prep, I dive in, I'm looking for good numbers and I come away with like half a dozen things where I'm like, oh, this is good. and then Derek just makes me feel so inadequate with his sickness. It's really impressive, man. I say that with admiration. Yeah, we love you. Gotta keep everyone on their toes.

1:20:05That is all we've got for the week six preview. We will be back tonight live on our YouTube channel. If you're listening to this, it's Friday, but please go check out the Thursday Night Football recap. We'll be talking about the Giants-Eagles game, so that'll be available in your YouTube feed. Just a reminder, if you're watching this on YouTube, please like and subscribe. seriously appreciate that we would love to know your thoughts about how much of a sicko Derek actually is by picking RJ Harvey as his what does he want to know I would love for your thoughts on whether you think the Colts are the best team top to bottom outside of the quarterback in the AFC whether it's crazy that we're even asking that question do you think the Cardinals might be better with Jacoby Percet these are open questions we want to hear from you as to your answers also we're doing a lot more just specific content for YouTube this year Derek is putting out a video pretty much every single week.

1:20:54I should have one hopefully coming out in the next couple of days. And so we're gonna be having a lot more of that coming your way, very excited about it. And then we will be back here Sunday night live for our week six recap. For now, that's all we got. Sincerely appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.