Week 8 Preview: The most loaded slate of the season

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2:07Robert Mays: That's Apollo.io. Welcome to The Athletic Football Show, brought to you by the U.S. Bank Smartly Visa Signature Card. I'm Robert Mays. Week 8 is here. It's a banger. A lot of really good games. We dug into six games from the Week 8 slate. Vikings-Lions was our game of the week, but we could have picked really any of them with me, Dave, and Derek. Let's get to the Week 8 preview right now.

2:41Robert Mays: It's the Week 8 preview. A lot of good stuff to dig into today, and there is a ton of good stuff on this slate. We're going to hit six games in some capacity. you could make an argument you could have made an argument Derek that several of these games probably deserve game of the week treatment even if we ultimately had to land on only one

2:57Dave Helman: I think almost all of these if it was the right week and the rest of the slate wasn't so strong that you really could make the case whether it's two incredible teams whether it's like there's one game here that I think just the stakes are incredible even if it's not necessarily the same quality as some other teams like after what has been like I feel like the last few weeks have been like some up and down slates some of them that were not the most exciting this one is like this feels like this is what it's all about we ultimately landed on

3:23Robert Mays: Vikings Lions as game of the week in part because we did a Jeffrey Simmons reaction this morning you guys can go listen to that watch it on YouTube wherever you're consuming this that serves as almost extended preview of the Bears Seahawks game in a way the Vikings Lions game is the one I think we really wanted to dig into in part because we just haven't talked about the Vikings very much I think it's been difficult to know what to do with them exactly. The defense is obviously incredible. The offense has been abjectly bad. They haven't played a lot of really good teams, so they haven't had game of the week opportunities.

3:54Robert Mays: They haven't really beaten anybody where we had to really dig into it on the recap show. They've existed in this kind of vortex in the way that we do the show, and so this felt like an opportunity to dive in headfirst.

4:05Derrik Klassen: At the risk of sounding like a college football plan, they ain't played nobody. They played the Packers week one. I mean, they beat the Bears. I know we can throw all those caveats in there if we want to. The result still counts. Oh, of course it does. It was just a weird, ugly game. Weird, ugly game. And then they've played a bunch of nothing for the last month. So this really feels, it feels very collegey where like we're nearing the midpoint of the season. And it's like, all right, let's see what you're all about, Vikings. All right.

4:31Robert Mays: So we're each going to hit one thing that we're focusing on from this game. Let's kick this off with you because you wanted to talk about Kyra Murray and the offense. And I think that's where this discussion about the Vikings kind of has to start. We know what the defense is. What this team can accomplish is ultimately going to be rooted in how good the offense can eventually get because it's not been very good so far.

4:49Derrik Klassen: Which I was burning to talk about this as I started researching this matchup and started watching the Vikings. And if you go back to really from the time Kyler seemed like a possibility for the Vikings, which was like November of last year. I have been in favor of this move and I know Derek was very in favor of this happening. And we said so many times, if you can just get average quarterback play, there's no telling what the Vikings could do. And to some degree, we were right. The Vikings are 6-0. The problem is, now that you're 6-0, you're the last unbeaten team in the league. I watched Kyler Murray back against the Colts this week and felt a lot of existential dread about what this looks like and how far the Vikings could possibly go.

5:38Derrik Klassen: because I'm just going to be blunt, and I think it's fair after last week. Kyler Murray's not playing good football right now. And the defense is incredible, and they deserve credit for being 6-0. But when you're 6-0, last unbeaten standing, you'd hope to think of yourself as a Super Bowl contender. And now I just find myself thinking, oh, man, is the quarterback going to hold us back from achieving that sort of ceiling? And we can get into all the reasons why, But that's why I was burning to talk about this, where I think I undershot what the Vikings were capable of because I was like, oh, this could be a 9-8 team if the quarterback is fine.

6:17Derrik Klassen: And instead, I'm like, they're 6-0. And they need better quarterback play if they're going to take advantage of how good this defense and this roster looks.

6:25Robert Mays: I think before we get into the specifics of this, I think some people have asked, you know, why aren't the Vikings at the table with the best defense in the league when you've had teams that are bad? or with the best defensive league when you have teams that have bad defenses on there. And if you look back at history, even defensive first teams, almost no one has won the Super Bowl with a negative EPA per play on offense. Like you have to go back to the 2015 Broncos to a team that was kind of like a decidedly below average offense that's done it. Even you look at the two teams that had a negative EPA per play per true media that have won the Super Bowl in recent years.

6:58Robert Mays: The Seahawks did it last year. The Chiefs did it in 2023. The Chiefs had Patrick Mahomes in 2023. And the Seahawks last year were a top five team in success rate dropping back. And we're one of the most explosive offenses in the league. Their EPA per play numbers were low because they turned the ball over a lot. And so even if you're a defense-driven team, you have to reach a certain benchmark offensively. And to me, that benchmark is higher than what you have to do respectively on the other side of the ball if you look back at history over the last 10 to 15 to 20 years. And so I think that's why the calculation of the Vikings is a little bit different, even if they have a better unit than some of the teams that we're considering as contenders.

7:37Derrik Klassen: If you go back over the last decade, quarterbacks who reached the final four in adjusted EPA per play, Bo Nix is the worst one of the last decade last year, and he was 19th. And think, I mean, think about what a fight that was. Just the discussions we had about Bo all year and what it looked like sometimes. and now consider depending on who you're asking, Kyler's like in the mid-20s in adjusted EPA per play. He's like 23rd, 24th. And so it feels kind of untenable. And like I said, we can detail the reasons why, but it gave me a lot of dread really sitting with it this week.

8:15Robert Mays: Derek, I have two questions for you. What have your impressions been of what you've seen from Kyler Murray in this offense? And do you feel like this is a product of guy that was a little bit banged up early in the season, new system, new surroundings, and this can potentially get improve enough for this team to make good on how well the defense is playing.

8:36Dave Helman: I think there's still a chance that they can get a little bit better, but I am more on the line of like, this has been concerning for enough of a long period of time. Now that he's been playing it again, he's been banged up. It's a new offense, all of this sort of stuff. The biggest issue that I would say is that Kyler Murray right now, he likes three throws he likes to throw outside the numbers on outbreakers he likes to throw seam routes and he'll throw like a little go ball vertical every now and then other than that he really does not try to put the ball in the air anywhere and I think that that is really concerning for them and again I think that there's maybe a chance that that can get a little bit better but I think the math here was that Kyler Murray will make five or six throws for us and the run game will be better and the defense will be good and all this stuff but they cannot run the ball at all And so there is no floor for the offense.

9:23Dave Helman: And I think where you see that specifically, their first down run rate is the third highest in the NFL, but they are dead average by success rate and 30th in yards over expected. And they're not explosive. And so you're just always in these pure pass situations with a quarterback that right now is clearly not comfortable doing that.

9:40Robert Mays: The run game is something to bring up because I think it's part of a larger discussion. You said this at the beginning of the conversation. If they just get average quarterback play. if they just get average quarterback play. We've done this a lot with the Vikings, where we've just treated certain elements of who the Vikings are as constants or constants at the low end and define positives at the high end, where it's like everything else about this thing is so great. If they just drop in average quarterback play, what can this team be? They are 25th in rushing success rate per TrueMedia. I think 25th in EPA per rush per TrueMedia.

10:17Robert Mays: I think the next gen success rate has them at 30th. So whatever you want to, however you want to cut it, it's been about a bottom five run game again, again. And this continues to happen. And so I think other than quarterback isn't playing well, and we can admit that he's not playing well and point out that he's not playing well, but I think yet again, there are elements of this offense that leave us wanting when so often every single off season, it's like, well, Frank Smith is here. So we're going to get the run game together. And as long as we get average quarterback play, we're off to the races.

10:51Robert Mays: And there are so many parts of those arguments that fail to actually materialize. And that has consistently happened with this team.

11:01Dave Helman: Because we've Robert, how many times have we done this with Kevin O 'Connell? And every year, I think I said they need to have the come to Jesus about the run game when they got knocked out of the playoffs with Sam Darnold. And now we're two years later after that, and we're still doing this with them. And so I get why it's been a little bit up and down this year. You know, you lose your center before the season. Donovan Jackson's hurt. I get all of that. But you've had enough years in the system. It's been a lot of the same players. Like this should look better than it is. And it's just frustrating that it's not.

11:29Derrik Klassen: Here's the thing. And it's worth pointing out. Like, I think Will Fry has had his ups and downs this year. You know, there were a couple plays against the Colts where he like killed a play by losing quickly. Jake Brindell, same thing. and to Derek's point, knew going into the season, that was something you were going to have to deal with. I still thought, despite all of that, despite the run game not being all that impressive, there were like four moments in the Colts game where it was there if the quarterback just makes a better throw. Like third and nine, midway through the second quarter, right before they settle for a second field goal.

12:05Derrik Klassen: Justin Jefferson is as wide open as it gets on like a deep curl. And Kyler has all the time in the world and just like fires high and wide and ruins a third and nine and they kick a field goal. Third quarter, he's got as wide open as Justin Jefferson can be on like an RPO post and throws it two feet behind him. And Justin Jefferson just sort of has to grab at it and it's incomplete. The game-changing scramble, amazing play as it is, and Kyler Murray is one of his superpowers is that he can do that for you. Cam Taylor Britt like tore his groin on the play And the middle of the field was just wide open because a guy was down.

12:43Derrik Klassen: And then Derek, we talked about this in the production meeting right before their block Indies blocked field goal third and 12. And again, it is like, it's an obvious passing down. That is a problem. The Colts brought a ton of pressure. And I think Kyler had like a post wide open over the middle of the field. If he's willing to like step into the pressure and make a big boy throw. And instead he, Aaron Rogers did and just threw a go ball off his back foot. that like never had a chance of being completed. And there was one more that really offended me. Third and 16 late in the fourth quarter, they just ran deep curls to the sticks.

13:19Derrik Klassen: And one of them was wide ass open. And he did throw it to Ty Felton like after he could see both numbers. And it gave the DB a chance to break it up. And I was like, Kyler, if you throw that half a second faster, you could pick up the first down. And this is all pretty basic stuff by franchise quarterback standards. That guy who's in year seven, year eight. Year seven, year eight, who has made a ton of money and done a ton of good things playing in this league. I'm going to steal Derek's bit. I won't be gaslit that Kyler's never been good at quarterback. That's not true. But he's not playing very well right now.

13:53Derrik Klassen: And I think of the game, of what I've seen, and I went back and watched some of the Saints game. He had some nice plays in the Saints game, but left a few on the field as well. These are also bad defenses. Yes. Like bad defenses. I just think there is way too much shit getting left on the field for what you hoped Kyler could be. And again, that's not even, we were never hoping he would be a top 10 quarterback. We were hoping he'd be better than what he's been. Absolutely. And I don't, I'm not shy about saying that. It's way too early to actually do this.

14:23Robert Mays: But if you're a Vikings fan, you're emotionally invested in this team. And you're watching the way that Kyler's playing right now. And you see just the five throws that J.J. McCarthy made last week. if it continues at that rate which who knows if it will we're gonna have an awkward conversation by the time that this season is over and so I it doesn't this was already going to be frustrating if you were a Vikings fan to watch what happened last week even if it doesn't end up becoming totally real would be an uncomfortable place to be and even that is more to the point that like

14:54Dave Helman: the quarterback of it all is so frustrating but even in that game JJ McCarthy just has to make five throws because they can run the piss out of the ball against the Texans. The Vikings can't ever put the quarterback in that position anyway. And so like, I don't even know if JJ McCarthy would be doing what he was like, what he's done in New York, in Minnesota, if they're going to consistently put the quarterback behind the sixes as often as they are.

15:16Robert Mays: Talk about those being bad defenses. Bring me to the thing I'm watching in this game. Where are we at with the Lions defense right now? Like what, what do we make of this unit? And what do we think about their ability to get themselves to a place where the Lions become a very serious, like legitimate Super Bowl contender because we know what the offense is. So as we're currently sitting here right now, heading into week eight, the Lions are 25th in defensive DVOA. And I went back and watched the Packers game from last week just to get, all right, where are we at with this team right now? Brian branches back.

15:49Robert Mays: And if you look at just some of the things that they're trying to do defensively, this is a team that played an astonishing amount of man coverage for the majority of the Dan Campbell era. with Aaron Glenn and then again with Kelvin Shepard last year. Early in this season, they were drifting away from that. I mean, their man coverage rates for the first three weeks of the season, I think maybe first four weeks of the season, were like 20 % or less. And so they were playing very much against type. Over the last two weeks against Arizona, it was over 50%. And then last week against the Packers, they were back near 35%.

16:17Robert Mays: I think that is the most comfortable version of this defense. I think that's them leaning into the things that they do well. And the DB personnel is obviously still a concern. and I think that was partially driving the choices they were making early in the season. But when you watch them play right now, Ennis Rakestraw started for them last week, even though he played fewer snaps in the past couple games. Brian Branch is back. You still have DJ Reed. You still have, like, Roger McCurry, somebody that you have mentioned. I like how you point at me, because I'm the one that keeps bringing him up, yeah.

16:47Robert Mays: You know, the Rakia Sin, like, they have enough corners, I think, to be capable. It's not a good group, obviously, but hopefully you can get by, and now that you have Brian Branch back, having one safety that you have to hide is very different than having two safeties that you have to hide. And Branch still wasn't playing full-time last week. He played like 30-ish snaps. And so I expect to see more of him. I do think that it's possible that you get the secondary personnel to a workable place. You're playing more man coverage and living in your comfort zone. The front is a good group, right? It's a good group.

17:22Robert Mays: Tye Williams has some flashes and is playing decently well. Alili McNeil has bounced back, I think, in a pretty big way. We know what Aiden Hutchinson is. The depth on the edge is still a concern, but I think personnel-wise, across the board, I don't think this is poor enough for us to think over the course of the entire season, this is going to continue to be a huge problem. And part of the reason that I say that, I think one of their issues right now, and this would actually make me feel, I think, a little bit better if I were a Lions fan, Jack Campbell should be the second-best defensive player on this team after Aiden Hutchinson.

17:55Robert Mays: I just don't think he's playing very well. Like if you watch what he looks like right now, it's very different than what he looked like last season. And if he normalizes over the rest of the year, I do think this is a defense that can get to a place where it's the 18th best defense in the league and we're not sitting there chewing off our fingernails wondering what they're going to look like in the playoffs.

18:16Dave Helman: Yeah, the Campbell point is a great one because he's, like you said, other than Aiden Hutchinson, I think he is their best player. Last year, he was, I don't know, the fourth best linebacker in football. Like he was he was phenomenal, wasn't he? I think so. Yes, he like really jumped up into he had been a nice player before and really leveled up into like, oh, he's one of those linebackers last year. And I think this year it's I think I agree with you in that like he will probably start to play better. I do think what's interesting sometimes you see this with linebackers, I think, and with safety.

18:46Dave Helman: Those middle of the field spine sort of kind of have to play a lot of run and pass players. They have to put out fires on bad defenses. And sometimes you see these guys just like they'll start to chase and they'll start to to guess so that they can create negative so that the defense is in a good spot because they know if I kind of just play my rules, play my base stuff, man, we're just going to get eaten alive. And so I think you're seeing a little bit more of that from Jack Campbell. But like you mentioned, if Brian Branch comes back, he's helping them a little bit more. Kirby Joseph has been practicing, so obviously not for this game, but down the line will help them out a little bit.

19:18Dave Helman: If he just feels more safe and protected, especially with the players behind him, I assume he'll start to play better. And we do see this sometimes, like Roquan Smith did not play his best ball for the first half of last season, and then he was pretty damn good down the stretch. Sometimes even the best players are just not going to start the season super hot sometimes.

19:36Derrik Klassen: I mean, in the modern landscape of football, with training camp being what it is and what you're allowed to do in added practice it makes sense to me especially in a position like linebacker if you need half a dozen games to find your groove maybe maybe that's excuse making maybe jack campbell won't hit his stride i don't know but that's an easy thing for me to buy that you know when we get closer to halloween when the weather starts to turn cold you're more in a rhythm of of playing football because that's just not what the practice routine looks like for these

20:06Robert Mays: guys i wonder if there's a move to be made for them i don't think it has to be some crazy splashy thing and safety is probably the position that people would have mentioned it needs to be a crazy

20:14Derrik Klassen: splashy thing robert don't downplay this we got jeffrey simmons in the division now parsons is

20:19Robert Mays: coming back soon i'm not sure what two first round pick corner is out there now in a post sauce gardener trade world i i think that them going out and doing something bring a meek robertson back right get a guy that can play inside outside for you who knows the system washington's not going anywhere he thinks he's on a two-year deal just something like that where it gives you more flexibility at corner. Like I think McCreary has been fine, but if you can put a meek Robertson back inside, if rake straw is going to give you more snaps on the outside, like, can you bring out, can you get one more body to give yourself a little bit more flexibility back there?

20:52Robert Mays: If you do think that Joseph is actually going to be back. And so I do think after checking in at this point, I'm probably more optimistic about them just taking a small step forward by the end of the season than I would have been after the Panthers game, for example. And I think this is the type a game against this Vikings offense where it's like, all right, let's see it this week.

21:10Derrik Klassen: It's a small sample size, but they've cut their explosive play rate in half over the last two games, which if you watched the Bills or Panthers game, it's not a high bar to clear, but I mean, the improvement is showing.

21:22Robert Mays: And I do, again, I think that getting outside of we're going to play 80 % zone as a team that's never really done that before. Even if you're a little bit worried about the talent level of the corners, I still just think when you watch this team play man coverage, it's where they're most comfortable and it's where they have been the most comfortable.

21:38Derrik Klassen: Okay, so let me ask you this, though. So, and they looked good playing man against Green Bay, which is impressive when you consider the juice that the Packers have. Kyler is firmly middle of the pack so far this year against man. He's 28th of 32 qualified quarterbacks throwing against zone. I think I would just do what I do well. Just do what you do well.

21:57Robert Mays: That's small sample size stuff. Like, I think at this point, he's played, what, five games? Yeah. I probably would just do what I do well. I think that leaning into what you're comfortable with is how I would approach this, I think, if I were the Lions. All right. Last point about this, Derek, is all you about the Lions Vikings game. This is like the headline matchup of the game. Let's dig into your one thing from Lions Vikings.

22:18Dave Helman: Yeah, this is the easy angle. It's just how are Goff and the offensive line going to handle Brian Flores. And I want to start by saying, for the most part, Goff has handled Brian Flores like exceptionally well, actually, like it since he took over when Brian Flores took over as DC. but really the only game where it felt like Goff was crumbling and struggling with the Brian Flores stuff was the Christmas game last year. The Lions season by that point was kind of, they had so many guys hurt. It was just not the season that they wanted. Like, I'm not really going to hold that super, super against Goff because I think otherwise he's been good.

22:50Dave Helman: And then I even turned it, I wanted to look more at not just Brian Flores, but how many times as a Lion has Jared Goff been blitzed at least 50 % of the time? It's happened eight times. Five of them are Brian Flores, including that Christmas game. But that Christmas game and a 2022 Packers game are the only times he had a negative EPA per drop back on those plays or in those games. He's handled it really, really well. I just think that he has such a good understanding of where the voids are. He does well moving against free rushers. He can throw over guys well. Obviously, the receivers he has, especially with the Bonnard St.

23:24Dave Helman: Brown, are really good at making those tough over the middle catches for stuff like that. So I think we've seen a lot of proof that Goff can handle this really well. The one small thing I do want to note, last year or last week, I talked about it was the first time Cade Mays was going to be in the lineup. The Lions have all their guys. Now, what does the communication really look like? Packers didn't really test them on a lot of stuff. They didn't blitz a ton. The run game, they weren't doing like that many stunts and blitzes and all that stuff. Buddy, Brian Flores is going to bring them. Like he's going to test all of your rules.

23:54Dave Helman: And so the The fact that we have what is the Lions offensive line at full capacity and a line that like they've been kick ass when they have all their guys. I'm really excited to see how well they handle that. Yeah, I'm looking forward to this.

24:06Robert Mays: And I think that we've talked about it. Like this version of the Vikings is it's more cranked up than it's ever been before. So even if we've seen this matchup a lot, like the Vikings have taken this thing one step further than they ever have. And even just some of the nuances of what they're doing, I feel like are even more advanced than they've ever been before like how efficiently they're able to read the guard where the guard where the guard is sliding whether where the back is going just like how well they've honed some of this stuff I think that the communication is more important than it's probably ever been when you're playing against this team and so a center in his second start for the Lions I think taking a look and being focused on what that element of it is specifically is going to go a long way in how this feels.

24:50Robert Mays: I highlighted him in my,

24:51Derrik Klassen: that rocked video this week. But, and I want to make sure I say this, Blake Cashman's been good since he got there, but he's one of the most fun players in the NFL this year. And like what they do, mugging him and dropping him and making guards and centers choose who they're going to take. And he drops after that and just, yeah, that's a great point to mention about Cade Mays being new to the lineup and new to this offense, I would guess he's going to be doing a lot to try to mess with that.

25:23Robert Mays: I get why their ability to read the pass protection and make sure the blitzes are often right because they can read pass protection so efficiently, right? Like you're sending the right guys because you're responding to what the offense is doing. And so that is just going to make your hit rate that much higher. How they manage to get droppers into where the throws are going to be so often. It's incredible. That part I don't really understand the mechanics of. Do you have a thought about that?

25:52Dave Helman: So I think when we've seen defenses play a lot like this before, I'm thinking like Wink Martindale used to do a ton of this stuff, obviously with the Ravens, where they would do some of the double mug and drop a guy out. That felt to me a lot more landmark based. And the Vikings obviously are when they're dropping off, like you're going to landmarks. They also feel like all the droppers on the line, And they know what exactly the offense is trying to attack when they're in certain looks. And so they'll get a little bit deeper if they have to, or they'll sprint to the flat faster than they normally would.

26:22Dave Helman: It's not just going to spots. It's going to concepts in a way that like, that's what happens when it's the fourth year of a defensive system with like a lot of the same guys. It's so cool.

26:32Robert Mays: That part of it is just that part of it. I can't really remember watching it with that level of efficiency. it's just how often they seem to be in the offensive huddle when it comes to where the outlets are going to be against some of these looks it's it's mind-blowing like i it's it's

26:49Derrik Klassen: really really impressive this is probably on my brain because i've been watching a documentary about free soloists recently but like you watch what the brine force are you just watching it

27:01Robert Mays: like in chunks did you just like wind down in the other night with like 20 minutes at a time i mean

27:05Derrik Klassen: nobody cares about this but i was watching it on our flight to san francisco and i like finished it this week it's really good it's called the dark wizard for whatever it's worth it's really funny but like you watch this footage of like alex honnold or dean potter climbing a mountain without a net and looking totally calm and cool while they do it and you're like you should be more freaked out by this that's how i feel about the vikings too where i'm just like how are you doing this and then just confidently dropping into the throwing lane and being right every time and why doesn't it ever bite you in the ass?

27:35Derrik Klassen: And I will say it bit them in the ass a few times against Green Bay. Obviously they won that game, but the lions have the potential to make them pay for that in a way that not a lot of their opponents have had.

27:46Robert Mays: I'm really looking forward to this matchup because I really do think that we still, we talked about this a little bit in the preseason that it really seemed like the things we're setting up this season for this to be the year where Jared golf was going to be appreciated to the degree that he probably should be. And I think we're kind of getting there. I think more people are noticing just the level that he is playing at and some of the things he's added to his game. And so this being the biggest challenge and biggest test of his season so far and for this offense that I think really has kind of found itself over the last couple weeks as the offensive line has gotten healthy.

28:16Robert Mays: Truly one of the best unit on unit matchups we have seen in the NFL so far this season.

28:21Dave Helman: He's the golf thing. He is not dynamic, obviously, just as a matter of like the athlete that he is. he makes plays though and i think that the longer he's been in the offense you see just his ability to maneuver the pot and especially now that the pockets are cleaner because the offensive line kicks ass they really do have like the perfect combination of things for him to just play at an

28:39Robert Mays: unbelievably high level all right let's get into the next set of games from this weekend one thing from four other games on this slate let's start with bears seahawks dave this is all you buddy one thing you were watching in Bears Seahawks.

28:53Derrik Klassen: Well, for the record, we did a Jeff Simmons instant reaction, which you can go get on the feed, right? Yes, yes. You can go watch it right now. You can go get that on the feed. You can get it on YouTube. So we talked about that in great detail because obviously that's the huge Bears news of the week. I hope he plays. It's a hell of a turnaround and maybe it'll only be a few snaps, but the mental image of Jeff Simmons and Quentin Nelson going against each other after leaving the AFC South. I cannot wait to see the orange sleeves, man. We did not mention the orange sleeves. I'm very pumped about that.

29:22Derrik Klassen: So I made this joke in our production meeting. That aside, I spent so much time looking at the Bears, like personnel groupings and snapshares. And it's never felt less important than it did when I got the notification about Jeffrey Simmons. But I think something that it's flying under the radar, in my opinion, outside of Chicago that Cole Komet has done for the year. Yeah. Yeah. It's a big deal. He is not like a sexy fantasy football player sort of guy, but he feels so important to me about. Well done. Well done.

29:58Robert Mays: Our producer, Katie, from the peanut gallery saying I disagree.

30:01Derrik Klassen: Well done, Katie. He is so important to what the Bears do. The Bears have run 250, 256 snaps with multiple tight ends on the field. Only the Raiders are doing it more. They've been running 55 % of their offense with multiple tight ends on the field since Caleb came back. Cole Komet's gone, and as of recording, I know they have guys on the practice squad they could elevate, but Sam Rauch and Colston Loveland are the only meaningful tight ends on this team. And so how they adjust to that, and by the way, they're playing the Seattle Seahawks, is an enormous thing that they have to figure out. And Ben Johnson was very complimentary of Sam Rauch this week.

30:40Derrik Klassen: He said he's going to see more snaps. He deserves to see more snaps, and we'll see what we can do with him, which we joked about this. I think Sam Rauch has been fine. He just had the worst day ever against Minnesota.

30:53Robert Mays: It's easy to do. His second game of his career in a rainstorm, he had a lot of really tough moments. He's been mostly okay.

30:59Derrik Klassen: If you go watch him in any other game, you're like, ah, he looks pretty good. Just don't watch the Vikings game. So we'll see what that looks like. But again, are you just going to run 12 personnel exclusively with Colston Loveland and Sam Rausch? Are you going to pivot more to 11? I don't really know the answer. 13 personnel kind of seems like it's off the table right now, which seems interesting to me because I think that I think the Bears have run like 80 snaps of 13. It's definitely 17 percent of their snaps.

31:28Robert Mays: It's a pretty big part of their offense. So right now, I believe that they're at about 50-ish percent multi-tight end when you combine the 12 personnel snaps with the 13 personnel snaps. Yes. It's been more than they run 11. They've been in multi-tight end looks.

31:42Derrik Klassen: So what your options are there are very interesting. And Colston Loveland is a willing and capable blocker. I don't think he's as good as Cole Komet. And I think they're better running. like if one tight end is on the field, if they're in 11 personnel, they run the ball better with Cole Komet than they do with Colston Loveland. And so figuring all of that stuff out, and I'll say it one more time, you got to do it against Seattle. I mean, I think Sam Rausch has had a nice year, except for one game so far, but Nicky Manwari and Demarcus Lawrence is a different animal than a lot of the guys they've faced to this point.

32:21and I'm circling this matchup

32:25Derrik Klassen: is how these tight ends respond to not having Cole Komet.

32:28Robert Mays: Ben Johnson said that Cole Komet the glue guy of the offense and that's exactly what he is. He's just doing so many things that allow them to be the team that they want to be. And you can incredibly line him up in one-on-one pass pro situations against edges and he can hold up. There just aren't that many tight ends that are capable of doing that. Like he really does help allow them to play the way that they want to play. And now you're putting a lot more of that on Roush's plate most likely because I think you have to, because if you look at the way that the offense has felt when Colson Loveland has been the most important receiver on the team, it's drastically different than at times and stretches this year where he's been blocking more than you probably want him to be.

33:02Robert Mays: I assume they'll call up either Kadir Ismail or Stephen Carlson and have three tight ends, but those guys are on the practice squad.

33:09Derrik Klassen: I'm sure they will too. But, and I even went and looked like Carlson, he's played like 14 snaps for the Bears over the last two years. And Ismail has never played an active roster game in his career. I'm sure one of them will get called up. Are you going to trot him out there against the dark side? You might have to. You might have to.

33:25Robert Mays: They might have to play a little bit. This is the moment where you really miss Durham Smythe.

33:29Dave Helman: But that's the thing. If your tight ends in this game are like a 23-year-old, a 24-year-old, and some sort of practice squad player against this defensive end group where it's Demarcus Lawrence and Derek Hall and Uchenna Nwosu, it's like I think this would be a tough game for Cole Komet. And obviously he's great at this stuff, but that's just how good the Seahawks guys are. The fact that you're not going to have that, I do think, is pretty limiting. How Roush can hold up in the pass pro stuff is huge, because it's not like the Bears do that every single play with Cole Komet, but it's the fact that so much of offensive football is how many different pitches can we throw, and I think you especially need them when you're playing against a defense like the Seahawks.

34:09Dave Helman: If you just have one fewer lever you can pull, man, Mike McDonald is going to jump on your shit, and I just think it makes for a really difficult game.

34:17Robert Mays: So speaking of the edge group for the Seahawks, the one thing that when I was rewatching their game against the Chiefs last week, that I think we just we need to start talking about it this way. So many people have said this, and I understand why. If you look at the numbers from the game, the Seahawks played zero snaps of base defense against the Chiefs. Nicky Manwari is a linebacker. He is a Sam.

34:38Dave Helman: In the same way that Brock Bowers is just a wide receiver, Nicky Manwari is just a linebacker.

34:44Robert Mays: There are times in 11 personnel where he will be in the slot. But against the Chiefs, who are playing a lot of 12 personnel, he's playing mostly as like a 4-3 stack backer. And then in even more important examples, like in this conversation, they're in even fronts with him just walk down as an outside linebacker. So he's small, but in those looks, you are playing base defense. You're just playing base defense with a smaller outside linebacker. That's all. And so I do think that the way they're using him this year, even compared to last year, and that may be wrong, but maybe I'm just noticing it more this year.

35:19Robert Mays: It really does feel like he's a linebacker that's like masquerading as a part-time slot player now.

35:24Dave Helman: No, that's the thing is last year he was a safety DB who was just doing a lot of other stuff. Now I really think he is just like a box player who every now and then you can go flex him out to the slot and have him run up the field with Xavier Worthy.

35:38Derrik Klassen: I just, this is a conversation for another day, but so many undersized athletic college linebackers who are loving to hear that. It's like, okay, like here's an avenue toward something I can do at the next level. Or, I mean, talk about the Vikings defense. Like all of those guys are the same size. It's part of the reason they can play that way. Not to minimize what unicorn Nicky Manwari is, absolutely. But it's fun to think about.

36:01Robert Mays: My Bears thoughts about this matchup and that side of the ball specifically, two things come to mind. One, I think that Caleb Williams' legs are huge in this game. If you go back and you watch the Chiefs game, the ability not just as a scrambler, But if you can break contain and get out of the pocket a little bit and change the contours of the zone defenses that you're going to be playing against, that's how you can create some opportunities against this team. And so I, for the most part, like want him to live in the pocket, because I think that the version of this offense, when they're just killing people from there is the one I want to be watching.

36:32Robert Mays: But this is one of those games where his ability to extend plays kind of create out of structure becomes important. You saw that last week, like many of the Chiefs best moments were when Mahomes was doing something out of the pocket where one hook defender has to account for him. It opens up a void. You make a play. And then the other part of it is this Bears offense from last year going against this team and a team that was living on explosives, hunting these chunks down the field. It's hard to live that way against the Seahawks. Their ability to be really precise underneath in certain games this year gives me more hope about what it can look like against Seattle.

37:08Robert Mays: I mean, one of the biggest steps that Caleb Williams has taken is the accuracy on just underneath throws and the accuracy that's creating yak opportunities for the offense. The ability to put the ball on an upfield shoulder to loot their burden and turn a seven-yard completion into a 20-yard completion, that wasn't happening as much last year. It wasn't happening often enough. It was actually an issue. And that, you've seen a demonstrable step forward. And I think against this team specifically, where you're going to have to live in that area a little bit more, it becomes really important in this sort of matchup.

37:40Dave Helman: I couldn't agree more. Like the Seahawks, when you look at their numbers, they are in a below average defense on throws like under seven or eight yards. And that's by design, right? Like they are giving you that and they don't want you to throw the deep stuff. And the bet is like teams aren't just going to sit here and do this 20 times and get enough yak for this to work. I do think the Bears have kind of gotten there because I think the Ben Johnson offense has always done that, right? Like when he's had, like it's obviously he did that a ton in Detroit, But even you see this year, how many damn crossing routes, like short crossing routes have we seen from Kalief Raymond or even Luther Burden?

38:12Dave Helman: Like they're just like, we're going to get our fast guy. We're going to sprint him into the field and he's going to go make a play for us. And I think they do a really good job of formationally opening that stuff up. And Seattle will give it to you. So that on top of because Seattle, like you were mentioning, Robert, they're so good with their rules. They are so sound. if you just break the play and go and go start things getting wild like they will give up a little bit more stuff and it's like if you look at their numbers on time to throw of like over three yards it's like they're still the eighth or ninth best defense but that's better than obviously the first defense and so you can get some stuff on them they're not going to be that

38:49Robert Mays: many opportunities but if you can create three or four more opportunities over the course of a game though that becomes really important let's get to our next one here browns stealers dave or derrick One thing you're looking for in Brown Steelers is what?

39:04Dave Helman: It's actually a little bit of what I just talked about with the Seahawks defense, but the Steelers defense is kind of gettable underneath as well. Like if you look at air yards, throws of 10 or fewer air yards, this defense is 23rd in success rate. Now, again, some of that is by design. You can look at other defenses that are in this range. The Seahawks are not that far. The Patriots, Chiefs, Packers, Broncos. this is can sometimes be more of like this is a signal of just how we play I will say I do think the Steelers miss a lot of tackles and like Patrick Queen is gonna not be great in his zone drop sometimes you can like kind of trick Jalen Ramsey with like running stuff across his face every now and then so like I just think that this is a defense that even though they've been very good they're great in run defense the pass rush is great they don't give up explosives down the field you can ship away at them underneath that's really about the only thing the Browns offense does with any sort of regularity.

39:58Dave Helman: And so I think this is a matter of like movable object. Like, can the Browns actually get enough movement in that way to make this game work?

40:05Robert Mays: The same conversation we had about the Vikings where it's like, all right, let's see it with the offense. You're a five and two team. You're going to potentially make a push to like be in the mix in the playoffs and win the division. What do we see from the offense? Like this becomes an important, I think measuring stick for the Browns. I know they played a few weeks ago, but it's an early season game. It's a Thursday night game. Like it's now we get to see it again. Like, what does it look like again? You mentioning that being the feel of the Browns offense. I, so over the first four weeks, and I remember after when they played against the Steelers, I was just a little bit frustrated about the way that people were talking about the Sean Watson's contributions, because he was just wasn't being asked to do very much over the first month of the season.

40:42Robert Mays: He made that throw to Judy on the final drive. And that's a great throw, but there, those throws weren't happening. Like that was an outlier compared to what his performance had looked like over the first month. Just some numbers on that. over the first four games of the brown season 24.5 percent of the sean watson's throws were going 10 plus air yards that was the worst mark in the nfl by by a comfortable margin 28 percent less than 28 percent 27.8 of his percent of his throws were going to the sticks he had eight throws to the intermediate middle of the field over those first four weeks the only guys you were Gino and Malik Willis.

41:19Robert Mays: That's it. And while doing this, while being asked to do less than just about every starting quarterback in the league as a passer, he was eighth in turnover-worthy plays total over that stretch. And he had the third worst pressure-to-sack ratio of any quarterback with at least 100 dropbacks. So he wasn't being asked to do very much, and he was doing that not very well. And then you look at the last few games, they are pushing the ball down the field more. Like that Judy throw, we've seen versions of that more often. There were a lot of drops in the Jets game. They were pushing the ball down the field.

41:51Robert Mays: Some of like the intermediate throws that he hit to Concepcion last week. We are seeing a little bit more of that, but overall, the numbers are still pretty bad. Like on the season, he has wedged knee paper drop back between Bo Nix and Kyler Murray, and he is 27th right now in QBR, right behind Bo Nix, right ahead of Jameis Winston. And so it just, it hasn't gone very well. You look at the scrambles, the fourth quarter comebacks, and some of the go balls down the field. Those are a lot of his best moments. I think those in tandem with each other are the collection of things that make you think a quarterback is playing better than he is.

42:29Robert Mays: And I think that is kind of what's happening with Deshaun Watson right now.

42:32Dave Helman: Those are the kinds of things that can go like randomly really well for you for like two or three weeks. And then it's like, man, I don't really know if that's like a serious thing. And they are now they're going to now play against a defense that like this Steelers defense is good. Like some of what they've done the last few weeks, like the Jets defense is whatever. Baltimore has some good moments, some really bad moments. And then Tennessee's defense has obviously not been good at all. But this is a Steelers defense that like I said schematically you can throw underneath against them. And I do expect a screen or two to pop in this game.

43:01Dave Helman: Like I think Monken screen game has been good. And it's huge.

43:04Robert Mays: It's one of the biggest parts about the offense.

43:06Dave Helman: Like those guys are weapons. It's the best. thing they do because yeah all of their players like I mean Boston's good with the ball in his hands but like the point of every other player in that offense is like can we just get them the ball in their hands I will say though like this is a Steelers defense that they are going to rush the passer on you and they're not going to give you the explosives down the field so the precision in that zero to ten yard area has to be pretty high for you to I think consistently move the ball and I just I really don't trust that they're going to be able to get there it's funny that this

43:35Derrik Klassen: game feels like a little bit of a fork in the road because if you go back to the preseason and i will give deshaun watson and the browns offense this credit of saying before the year i was worried that the quarterback play was going to make everything else a moot point it's been

43:51Robert Mays: so much better than it was because so much better than it was even if it still hasn't been very good

43:56Derrik Klassen: relative to the rest of the week we had reason to believe with evidence that it would be unplayable worst quarterback in the NFL bad and it's just merely bad it's just merely like bottom 10 which while not good is so much better than I thought it might be and so we know that Denzel Boston and Casey Concepcion look like stars we know that Harold Fannin is building on his rookie year and that's a really exciting place to be even if you don't have expectations but now you're five and two and the conversation changes of like can you win the division can you take a playoff spot and this this feels like a real litmus test for that of i know they already beat the stealers but do it again whatever like go win a big road game like this and force people to confront that i guess and to this point i even with everything they've done i don't i don't buy that as a real possibility i might have to change my mind if they can win a game like this the numbers again

44:55Robert Mays: haven't been good, but I do think that some of the throws he's made over the last couple weeks are more impressive and more encouraging than what he was being asked to do over the first month. Whether that you can cut down on some of the sacks, whether the consistency can be there, it's more than like three or four moments a game. I think that becomes the question, and we'll see what that ultimately looks like. One thing to note here, injury-wise, sounds like Titus Howard, still dealing with that concussion, might not play, is not practicing, And so that becomes big against the edges from the Steelers, obviously, because DeJuan Jones is we've seen a lot of DeJuan Jones.

45:30Robert Mays: Having your starting offensive tackles in this game against against Pittsburgh is a big, big deal. Let's get to the next one here. This is all me. Chiefs at Broncos. Obviously, these teams played in week one. It just feels like we're in drastically different places with both of them, with the Chiefs offense and with the Broncos defense. the Broncos defense missed 28 tackles in that game 28 tackles and it really was a couple a handful of explosives were the difference in that game for the Chiefs you had a 28 yard run where Alex Singleton falls off of Kenneth Walker in the hole you had a 56 yard I believe completion to Travis Kelsey where Jaquan McMillan slips off of him and he runs for 40 more yards you had the 60 yard Kenneth Walker touchdown at the start of the second half.

46:17Robert Mays: The Broncos, to be clear, have not been a good tackling team for most of the season. Even if you take that 28 number down and just do an average Broncos game, they've missed more than 10 tackles in every single game. It still hasn't looked like that, though. It still hasn't looked like that. And so you look at the fact that the Broncos have not played that poorly in any other game they played on defense this season. And you look at what the Chiefs were against the Seahawks last week, And I think it is genuinely concerning. Getting Jalen Moore back is huge because Azuda is just unplayable. Like in any sort of drop back situation, you have no shot.

46:52Robert Mays: And part of that was Seahawks, but you think it's going to get any easier this week? Not this week.

46:57Dave Helman: It's a different challenge, but you're still dealing with those guys.

47:00Robert Mays: And so I think that overall, I go into this game, even when you think about the week one game in the rear view, and that's the most recent example we have between these two teams. I'm a little bit worried about what the Chiefs offense is going to look like in this game if they struggle to really run the ball consistently because against Seattle last week, it's just laid out in front of you that tackles are an issue when you're in pure dropback situations and the receiving talent is so bad. It is so bad. Like you look at some of the other good teams in the league and what those offenses feel like and the fact that you have playmakers.

47:37Robert Mays: Like you have guys who can steal three plays a game that shouldn't be on the table based on what they are purely as pass catchers. And the Chiefs have to manufacture everything in the passing game, especially with Tyquan Thornton now. And I just think against this Broncos team, it's going to be really hard to do that again if you cannot run the ball consistently.

48:00Dave Helman: Week one is like kind of not real for a lot of teams. And like the Broncos were never going to miss that many tackles. And they also like they were never going to be that bad of a run defense. They just have too much talent up front for that to be a consistent thing for them. And on top of week one, just being weird, generally, it's the first time anyone, any team had seen what the Chiefs offense was going to look like with Kenneth Walker running back. Well, now they've seen it and it wasn't that long ago. And now the Chiefs can't push the ball down the field because Tyquan Thornton is hurt. And so it just does feel like they're going to get choked out of this game potentially a little bit more than they did.

48:32Dave Helman: And that's obviously not to say that they're going to have no answers or that they can't win this game, but it will be much tougher sledding than it was the last time that these two teams played.

48:41Derrik Klassen: I think the logic there makes sense, but I want to see the Broncos do better than 220 rushing yards before I just assume that they can shut the Chiefs down. Like, and I get it. The receiving talent is bad. The Broncos should be able to key in on this, but I watched that game not very long ago and I want to see it because Seattle held Kenneth Walker to 36 yards.

49:06Robert Mays: And I don't think that's going to happen. No, I still think there's a world where the Chiefs run the ball fairly efficiently in this game. I don't think they're going for 220 again because I don't think the Broncos are missing 28 tackles again. But the Broncos are just built differently than a team like the Seahawks is. I do think that getting Jonathan Cooper back, not having to rely on even smaller edges in the run game is going to matter. Like you watch one of the big pops that the Chiefs had in the first half of that game. Jonah Ellis, they just capture him on a pin pole and it's like a 12 yard game.

49:35Robert Mays: You can still get the Broncos that way. I just don't know if you can build the entire plane out of that. And if you are in some scenarios where it is third and seven, third and eight, I just still don't trust this chiefs team in those situations. It's partially a part of the product of the receiving talent. And it's partially a product of the tackles, even getting J one more back. That's still a disadvantageous matchup for you against whoever against Jonathan Cooper. Like it still is.

50:01Dave Helman: and I actually like the the pass catchers thing is obviously so frustrating but like Patrick Mahomes if he's clean he can make throws he clearly feels unsettled with these tackles especially against the real pass rush teams and that to me is the bigger issue I was around on

50:19Derrik Klassen: true media while you were talking the Broncos explosive run rate falls by a full percent if you take week one out of it yeah like they were horrendous it's I there is a chance that the

50:30Robert Mays: Chiefs can still run the ball in this game. I just don't, I don't know how well they're going to be able to do it. And depending on where that lands, I think that ultimately dictates it. It's the same as last week. It's the same conversation we're having as last week, where we wanted to see what they would look like if they couldn't run the ball. It was not very good. And now you're playing against the Broncos team that they might not be the Seahawks in part because they don't stop the run quite as well. But if you get them in defined passing situations, you're dealing with some, some big boys over there that can wreck this game.

50:58Robert Mays: Zach Allen's hurt. So that's one thing to consider he's dealing with that hamstring issue we'll see if he ultimately plays but even if he doesn't those guys are problems brett beach josh downs has requested a trade not sure if that

51:11Derrik Klassen: popped up on your radar just letting you know we talked about this with that with a popper on the show that ran on on thursday i'm open to it because josh downs is just somebody that gets

51:22Robert Mays: open that that's his skill and no one on the chiefs is able to do that and that seems important if the Chiefs trade for a 5-9 receiver I think Derek is gonna leave football media another one

51:33Dave Helman: man like you know you know the only way you can maybe get me there with this the bar literally

51:39Derrik Klassen: is so low for this team that's what I'm saying that's not really that's not really a short joke but it kind of is the bar is so low that like sure man if we can get a competent wide receiver

51:49Dave Helman: two and a half in here who can just make a couple of plays a game maybe that is enough I still I

51:54Derrik Klassen: I just think my homes will take anybody that could catch a drag with a defender on his back.

52:00Dave Helman: Because, you know, I will say that like all of the other chiefs receivers, the chiefs actually against man coverage have been fine this year because when their guys can just kind of skedaddle away from somebody and they run some of their mesh stuff that works, the zone stuff is terrible because who can you throw to in between a zone who's going to go make the play? I don't know if Josh Downs is going to go do what T. Higgins did against Roquan Smith this past week where he's just snatching it over his back. I think he's a little bit more willing to go make some of those tough plays.

52:25Robert Mays: The last note about the Chiefs, talk about the environmental things, the receiving talent, the tackles last week. I thought last week is a bad week for Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. Andy Reid, just some of the game management stuff and some of the situational play calling. It was so funny because they get a third and four last week against Seattle from the plus 42 yard line. And straight drop back, Hall gets immediate pressure, ball is incomplete they punt from the four plus 42 yard line they play the broncos in week one it's third and four from the 40 yard line on the opening drive they run the ball they get to fourth and two they go for it and they go down and score a touchdown and so just some of the situational choices last week like punting from the 42 period when it's fourth and four i just don't support when you're only going to get so many possessions over the course of a game and so watching the disconnect between what that felt like and what they were doing in week one like that where did that approach go because that's the correct approach I think in that situation and when you watch Mahomes last week he just didn't play very well there were multiple throws that he left out on the field and so I think we oftentimes will blame everything else that's happening around the Chiefs for when those poor performances happen I don't think that the coach and the quarterback were doing a lot to enhance what was going on last week against Seattle I couldn't agree like

53:47Dave Helman: Patrick Mahomes just wasn't, I mean, he was turning down a couple of throws, but he'll do that sometimes. Like he likes to pick his spots in a particular way. And I think given what we've seen over the course of his career, I think you let him play the way that he's going to play. The bigger issue to me was he was just not accurate on like a half dozen throws where it's either killing yak opportunities or he's making Kelsey go up for it in a way that is not necessary. And it's like, if you're going to just miss on five throws against the Seahawks, you will never beat that team. You will never even come close to beating that team if you're

54:17Robert Mays: going to do that and you combine that with plays where like the worthy drop on the cross or where i saw patrick mahomes's soul leave his body that's that's what i was referring to yeah yeah i think

54:26Derrik Klassen: patrick mahomes would take anybody who will catch that ball one thing i pulled up from our friends at next gen that i thought was worth sharing kansas city's running man a third of the time this year which is a top 10 rate they got bow so bad running man in week one he threw for 23 yards and a pick on like 24 attempts, I think. And also from next gen.

54:47Robert Mays: That's also maybe a week one thing though, right? Like them playing that much man coverage in a way that you might not have expected coming into the year. From next gen, to this point in the season,

54:57Derrik Klassen: Bo's completing 41 % against man this year, which is the lowest number they have dating to 2018. Oh my God. Not just week one. So, I don't know. Something for Spags to think about.

55:08Robert Mays: Let's get to our last one here. Falcons at Bucs. this is all you Derek I want to ask you what you're the thing you're looking at here is the most but just on a big picture level it's a massive game like this is a massive game where you we're recording this before Packers Panthers happens but if the Panthers lose tonight and the Bucs beat the Falcons on Sunday we're all bets are off in the NFC South man we're back I love mess

55:34Dave Helman: it seemed like this it seemed like the Bucs specifically were out of this division two weeks ago. And now we're in a spot where it's like, maybe the Panthers aren't as good as we think. And now if they beat the other team that's in competition for it in the Falcons, it's like, well, shit, why can't it be the Bucs? And so I'm so excited for this game. And the thing I most want to talk about, you know, we talked about Bucs defense last week. I'm actually doing my video this week on the Bucs defense. So we've gotten that part out of the way. The offensive line in the run game is electric, dude. They are so back to being what they were, especially under

56:04Robert Mays: liam cohen which is so nice because i really didn't miss them last year this is a group there where we're all having more fun when you're watching them just blow people up on gap scheme

56:15Dave Helman: runs all over the place and that's what it is they are there is no other team in the nfl who is running as much power and uh counter stuff as they are according to sports info solutions and on those runs they are eighth in yards per attempt and some of the teams ahead of them have like four runs that that barely counts like the the volume at which they're doing it and the efficiency at which they're doing it is awesome and they're just there's so many good moments and obviously the offensive line is playing at a really really high level but it's also all of the auxiliary blockers like there's with about six minutes to go in the second quarter against Pittsburgh Kate Otten explodes Peyton Wilson in the hole and it's like whoa okay and then the first play against the Panthers and this really set the tone for the game Otten does an unbelievable job just sticking Bobby Okereke.

57:01Dave Helman: And then one of the receivers, I think it was Ted Hurst, just digs the safety completely out of there. It's a 15 yard pop because you get one on one with the back on the corner and Bucky just makes a play. And it's like, yeah, man, if we can just spring these runs and get a couple of lanes, three, four lanes a game where these guys are just mauling people. And so you get the explosives, but I also do just think too that like on a down to down basis, they can grind out five and six yards consistently. Their zone stuff has been good, even if that's not like the heart of what they do. I just think that the way that they are operating right now in the run game is exceptional.

57:33Dave Helman: And the last thing I would add, Atlanta's run defense has been nice at times this year. When you do the gap scheme stuff, you can get them. You can move them off the ball. You can really go climb with those linebackers and take them out. It's what the Niners had the most success with last week. And I think we've seen a number of other teams been able to do that against them as well.

57:51Robert Mays: We just think about how Atlanta's defensive line is built, it's a lot of undersized gap shooters. Like that's the entire premise of the defense. And so if you're getting in a down block here and a down block here and somebody's pulling all the way around, you can move some people. And so I do think that feels like the right approach against this Falcons defense specifically. It's nice to have this group back. It's nice to have Bucky Irving healthy again, this offensive line healthy again.

58:15Derrik Klassen: I'm going to say like Mock and Gadecki missed so much time last year. Tristan Wurst was dealing with the knee at the beginning of last season. and this is the run game court.

58:26Robert Mays: I mean, Kevin Carberry is still there. And so some of the stuff that they did under Liam Cohen, it's not surprising to see them be able to tap back into it, but it makes a huge difference. And now, I mean, when you pair it with that defense, if they can find a little bit of something on the ground, can sustain that, see what happens with Baker, you know, dealing with the hand and kind of like a weird situation with him wearing that glove. And I don't know what to necessarily expect from the passing game moving forward, but there is a chance by the end of this weekend, we are in a full on shit show when it comes to the end.

58:55Robert Mays: I'm actually, there are years where I would have been like, no, I can't spend time or energy caring about this, but the versions of these teams, I think because of the way the Bucks defense is playing, because the Falcons are, I think are a compelling team on both sides of the ball. Carolina's offense has been just much better than it was over the last couple of years. So like there is, I think again, there are other years where we would have been sitting here being like, Oh my God, 10 win NFC South team. I can't believe I have to deal with this shit. And now watching these teams, I'm actually really enjoying myself.

59:29Derrik Klassen: This is a nice take. I like this take because so many years, the NFC South gets the rap where a shit team wins a shittier division. And I'm not, I wouldn't pick any of these teams to reach the Superbowl, but I, these are all solid teams for some reason, you know, like you can find something legitimately good and enjoyable about watching pretty much everybody. I mean, the Saints haven't really been that team in about a month, but the other three, you know, whether it's Tampa's defense, whether it's Bryce Young and the passing game in Carolina, Bajon Robinson, like there's something legitimately good and fun about all of these teams, which has not always been the case in the recent history of the NFC South.

1:00:10Derrik Klassen: This is not the end all be all,

1:00:11Robert Mays: but just for like a tiny bit of context, right now, the Bucks and Panthers are top 13 teams in overall team DVOA, And the Falcons are 19th. And that's with the couple Cooper Rush games thrown in there. And so I think you can make a reasonable argument that three of the four teams in the NFC South are pushing to be top half of the league teams. And that just wasn't the case last year. I mean, last year, again, just like it's one stat. But just to like put a point on it, last year, the Panthers won the division while ranking 25th overall in total team DBA. away. So a different class of team vying for a title that we don't normally think is very prestigious.

1:00:56Dave Helman: That's the thing. Last year, it was a couple of teams, mostly the Bucs after a lot of the injuries, and then the Panthers, where it's like, by the middle of the season, it was four mediocre units just kind of like farting out a couple of wins here and there. But it's like, right now, it's like, man, the Panthers offense has some stuff to it. The Bucs defense and offensive line is electric. The Falcons, when they're rolling, like they really have some stuff to them like they are more interesting than I think a lot of their records suggest and honestly to put like a pin on this game they obviously need pretty much need to win this game for this to be the case but I really think the Bucks are still the best team in the division and I really think that like them ending up with the record they was with some combination of like early season weirdness on offense then your starting quarterback goes down if Baker can stabilize at all you have like a top five offensive line and run game and your defense is electric and forcing a ton of turnovers right now.

1:01:48Dave Helman: Like you can pretty easily go win this division. I would probably pick them, honestly.

1:01:53Derrik Klassen: I want you to be right because of how much I love the defense and my Baker priors, but I would like to see him play well in a game where he needs to throw the ball. Like, you know, it's not too much to ask where you need more than 65 yards to win a game.

1:02:07Robert Mays: That's a big question. Like what's going to happen with the passing game? Is that ultimately going to be good enough? And the fact that I need my Mecca Buka fantasy shares to come through in some way, I'm focusing on this. This is, imagine if you're at the end of this conversation, you're a Saints fan. Where the rest of the division's all like, it's just a Squidward meme in real life with him looking out the window, where the rest of the division is like frolicking outside and you're just sitting up there in your tower so, so sad about the current state of affairs.

1:02:34Derrik Klassen: And the owner of the Saints is, this week, after the strongly worded letter about Kellen Moore, this week we got a letter about the power of friendship in France. So cool. Stealing my bit.

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1:05:14Robert Mays: we have one more game that we wanted to hit we've talked about these teams schematically and a lot of the ins and outs of who they are so much that we want to take slightly different approach with raven's bills and i want to do a little take therapy with raven's bills because you guys have seen it i've been going through the ravens over the course of this season i have them in the wins pool i just think that lamar when he is right is like i think really really might be the most special player in the league, like what he is, what he is at his best, the 2024 season throughout the entire thing, I really did feel like we were seeing that version of him again over the first few weeks of the year before he got hurt.

1:05:52Robert Mays: And so my take about this game and about these two teams is that we fire the regimes. We fire these longtime head coaches. We're in a place where, all right, it's going to feel different now, right? Where this is going to, we're going to be different organizations this is not going to be the same set of frustrations and us pounding our heads against the wall over and over and over again and in reality seven weeks into the year it just feels like the bills and the ravens are the alex jones thing where they got a tan and it's just the same picture of them he just stepped back from the camera that that's that's all we're doing here like it really does feel like these are the same teams in a lot of ways And that's oversimplifying it, obviously.

1:06:35Robert Mays: But there is a Groundhog Day feeling to this where if I were a fan of the Ravens or the Bills, I think that I'd be losing my mind right now.

1:06:44Dave Helman: And you briefly thought it was different at the start of this season. Yes, we had reason to believe it would be different. And like with the Ravens, we didn't know the Colts would obviously be as bad as they were, but they go out and run all over the Colts. And it's like, wow, the new offensive coordinator is going to look awesome. The first play of the game, they throw this huge thing to Zay Flowers. and like he looks like completely rejuvenated. The defense had mostly played well in that game and you were like, okay, we're starting to do some cool stuff. This can really turn around. Lamar's going to play at a really high level again.

1:07:11Dave Helman: Next week, they obviously go out and lose a stupid game against the Saints. Lamar ends up being hurt a couple of weeks later and we're back to them being what they are. Them having like other defensive meltdowns in the second half like they did against the Bengals. So they feel like how they are. With the Bills, I think we knew that no matter how it shook out, the Bills were going to be a good offense. But with this year, it was like the offense will be different. We've got DJ Moore, maybe having the offensive coordinator now being the head coach, like we'll do a little bit more different stuff.

1:07:37Dave Helman: And for two weeks, it looked like that was going to be true. When DJ Moore has been healthy, you've seen it. And then Dalton Kincaid early in the season was unbelievable, especially against the Texans.

1:07:46Robert Mays: Well, now we're really felt like Dalton Kincaid was going to be the most important player in fantasy football two weeks into the season. It really felt like that was going to happen.

1:07:53Dave Helman: And now has anyone talked about Dalton Kincaid for like four weeks? We're right back to what the offense was, which again, to be clear, is still awesome. Like, they're still an incredible run game. Josh Allen is still amazing. He could do all of them, all these things. Keon Coleman's taken a little bit of a step to help them. But they're like pretty much the offense that they were last year. And we just thought it would be different. And they're just right back to being what they were.

1:08:15Robert Mays: That part's funny. But the idea that for two weeks, it was like, oh, man, it's going to be different now. And it's not really. But when you're the best offense in the league who gives a shit on the Bills side of it, it's the fact that you're bringing in this guy that we've talked about for years as a defensive coordinator, right? Like, oh man, Jim Leonard, Jim Leonard's in the NFL. Now what's the Jim Leonard defense going to look like? I was excited about it. I was really excited to see what he would do. And so you'd hope that, okay, if we can go from being a defense that we're terrified of how it's going to go in January to being one of those middle of the road teams where it's a little bit more aggressive, it's a little bit more blitzing, it's a little bit more just dynamic.

1:08:50Robert Mays: And you pair that with the offense. What can we look like? And now we're seven weeks into the season. The bills have a bottom four defense and we're right back where we started.

1:08:59Derrik Klassen: Is there a first-year coordinator who's having the effect we hoped would have? Oh, Declan Doyle. I think Declan Doyle is absolutely – It was an earnest question. Declan Doyle, I think, absolutely has. Like, we were so excited about some of these guys, particularly Jim Leonard and Christian Parker, and it just has not materialized the way that we hoped it would. I do want to point out about DJ Moore. He's been – he got hurt. He's caught one pass since October 4th. And so I'll hold out some hope that the Bills can get back to some of that stuff when they're healthier. I think DJ is at practice this week, right?

1:09:34Derrik Klassen: So you would hope that that can stabilize and look more like what we got used to in the first two, three weeks of the season. The thing that drives me crazy, and I think I've brought this up, I've probably brought this up like three times already, but I just can't get over Kyle Hamilton's speech after the Falcons game where they trailed that entire game and they pulled it out in overtime. And he made it a point to say when he got the game ball after the interception, like, we find a way to lose this game in the past. And, like, everybody honed in on it immediately. And what's happened since that game?

1:10:09Derrik Klassen: They have jumped out to leads in two straight games. Really, Bengals is whatever, because they, you know, it's Joe Burrow and those receivers. But, like, to jump out to a 10-0 lead against the Browns and then just miss that game away a week after that speech, it's going to stick with me for a long time. And to give up feeds that you built in both of these games and look utterly hapless in the second half, it feels very familiar to what Kyle Hamilton would have us believe was a previous era of Ravens football. And that's like sort of in jest, like we're joking about that part of it.

1:10:43Robert Mays: Jesse Minter coming out this week and saying that we need more leadership from the guys in the locker room. Like we need guys to step up in these moments and be vocal and kind of put a stop to the bleeding, it's like, that's tough, man. I mean, if you're trying to send a message to the media, that stuff does work. I can understand that. But to hear that like seven weeks into the season, when, again, this was supposed to feel new and exciting and have a little bit of an edge to it, it would be a frustrating place to be if you were a Ravens fan.

1:11:11Dave Helman: It's brutal, man. And the other thing I'll add, this was supposed to be the easy stretch of their schedule. You play teams like New Orleans. You play teams like, you know, Atlanta is a fine team, but they're not like anything special. You get your Cleveland game, who I know that they've been better than we thought. But like the rest of their schedule is pretty much playoff teams and then a Browns team they've already lost to. Like there is some small percentage chance that this gets a little bit rocky, especially if Lamar Jackson doesn't come back like fully healthy. And like, I think there's probably reason to expect that if this was like the really the high ankle thing that they think it was, he's probably not going to be 100 % for the rest of the year.

1:11:48Dave Helman: Like that stuff lingers.

1:11:50Robert Mays: A couple other first-time coordinators just to mention so we don't forget people. Brad Edzig has been really good for Carolina. Fair. Really good for Carolina. And then on the defensive side of the ball, Mike Grudenberg, I think, has done a really solid job post-week one. And so there are other guys who are new coordinators but aren't first-time coordinators that are probably worth mentioning. But among the first-time guys where it was a little bit of a mystery box, I think those are definitely names worth mentioning.

1:12:12Derrik Klassen: Worth saying Lamar Jackson has practiced the two days of the week up to recording. but also I'm I'm done speculating I can't do it anymore I can't do it anymore that's also part

1:12:24Robert Mays: of the reason I don't feel compelled to actually preview the game because I'm just like you know

1:12:28Derrik Klassen: what earn it let's play a banger on Sunday and we'll talk about it on the recap show let's see what the inactives list says on Sunday morning and I'll adjust my excitement accordingly I joke

1:12:39Robert Mays: with if both quarterbacks play it is very likely that this is going to be a great game between two very good teams and there's a reason that the bills still have the best super bowl odds of any team and the ravens even sitting at where they are right now i think are still the favorites to win the division i think are still legitimate super bowl contenders like over the course of the year i still am confident that these are going to be teams we're talking about by the end of it but the way the first month and a half of the season has gone to bring us to this point more for the ravens than the bills but i do think that there's enough similarities felt like it was worth

1:13:12Derrik Klassen: sitting with for a second in April, though, to your in your defense in April, if I had told you that midway through the year, we'd be like the Ravens have lost some head scratchers and Lamar's health is up in the air and the bills are good on offense, but bad on defense. You'd be frustrated. You'd be like, I would be, I would be, I would be.

1:13:28Robert Mays: I think that's right. I think we're actually justified in framing it this way, even if it feels a little bit cruel. All right, before we move on, let's take one more quick break.

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1:15:04Robert Mays: get into what we want to know from three other games in week seven i'll kick us off colts jags jags coming out of the buy colts fire sale can you destroy this team like can you come out of the buy and show us that you you didn't play for a week and that was enough for people to forget that you're legitimately one of the best teams in the league. You play a couple of strange games in London, right? You almost lose to a banged up Eagles team. You eventually do lose to a Texans team that followed that up in the most uninspiring way possible. And so coming out of the buy, can we lock some of this stuff down?

1:15:41Robert Mays: Can you remind everybody and prove to all of us that, oh yeah, we're, we're here. Like don't, don't forget about us when you're having conversations about who the best teams in the league are.

1:15:50Derrik Klassen: What do you got for me? So last week I picked on the Cardinals. because the Broncos should have beaten them handily, and they did. I'm going back to that, but for a different reason. If you don't follow the Dallas Cowboys closely, you might not know that Arizona is just their demon team. The Dallas Cowboys.

1:16:09Robert Mays: It's so true.

1:16:11Derrik Klassen: Since 2008, Dallas is one in eight against Arizona. Like they cannot beat this team. It's maddening. And they should. They're touchdown favorites at home against Arizona on top of that. But so last year, you'll remember the Cowboys won three straight. They beat the Chiefs on Thanksgiving in a banger of a game. Yeah, it was the high watermark of Brian Schottenheimer's tenure to this point. It's also the only win streak of his time as a head coach. It's the only time the Cowboys have won consecutive games. They've been trading wins and losses all year this year. So not only can you beat the team that you never beat and can you put a win streak together against a bad team at home?

1:16:51Derrik Klassen: You should be able to. Do I have faith that that's the case? Not really, but you should be able to. And I want to know if you can. It's my second major league reference in the last week.

1:17:02Robert Mays: It's like, if we win, we won a game yesterday. If we win one tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before.

1:17:11Derrik Klassen: That is correct. That's what I need the Dallas Cowboys to do this weekend.

1:17:15Robert Mays: Derek, what do you got for me? What do you want to know coming out of week eight?

1:17:18Dave Helman: I'm fishing for optimism here. The Dolphins played their first pretty good game. Like they got their first win last week. And I don't expect them to beat the New England Patriots. Obviously, they're a much better team. But the offense specifically, can you do it again? Like I really thought that they did some interesting stuff last week. Malik Willis played his best game. They've got their receivers like go and show me something.

1:17:39Robert Mays: The Dolphins run game. So we're seven weeks into the season. If I was trying to find a candidate for the football oddity that the nerds are going to talk about too much and everyone that has any semblance of a life or interest outside of this sport are going to be like what the f*** are you guys talking about that were the best candidate for that over the next eight weeks i think the dolphins gap scheme run game is going to be that thing where like well you you tape nerds need to shut up like this is in completely irrelevant this team has won two games i do think we might be trending that direction which i love kate and proctor's cool that's right that's right we see they got some proctor clips just sprinkling the Twitter timeline every single Tuesday, which is honestly, I say that jokingly.

1:18:21Robert Mays: If you're a Dolphins fan, that was the whole point. Yes. The whole point of the season was to be that sort of team.

1:18:29Dave Helman: Chris Bell clips, Caleb Douglas got a nice clip. Jacob Rodriguez making plays. That's all this has got to be. And if it amounts to three wins, who cares?

1:18:36Robert Mays: That is a successful season. Whatever we framed a successful season as for the Dolphins, that is actually it.

1:18:41Derrik Klassen: It's funny to this. It's the correct take but like as a diehard dolphin fan like we're just having the time of our lives all these young guys look so fun and a dolphins fan is like can my team win a game ever and look good please they won one last week i know they beat the jets but how many more times is that going to happen if you're a dolphins fan eyes on the price i i get eyes on eyes on the price

1:19:02Robert Mays: if you are an interesting team with a really promising young offensive line and you win two games and Jeremiah Smith is on your team next year, we're good. Like that's all good for a season. This is, this is the correct take.

1:19:15Derrik Klassen: I know who Jeremiah Smith is. No, he's been famous since he was like 18. There's a difference between being a podcast nerd who's excited by some rookies and like being emotionally tied to the dolphins. That's my only point. Oh, I don't know.

1:19:31Robert Mays: I think the people who listen to the show that are done, they had to have enough perspective.

1:19:35Derrik Klassen: You know, what the score is. I hope so. I hope so. But I'm glad they at least got off the donut. That was nice. All right. That's all we've got for today.

1:19:44Robert Mays: Panthers Packers tonight. By the time you're listening to this, that game will have happened. Check out our recap of it on the YouTube channel or in your podcast feed. If you're watching this on YouTube, we would love if you would like subscribe to all that fun stuff. The as we mentioned earlier in the show, the Jeffrey Simmons reaction is available for you on YouTube or in your podcast feed right now. And so there's just a lot of content, man. There's just a lot of content. If you want the content, it is available to you right now. That is all we've got for today. Appreciate you guys listening.

1:20:15Robert Mays: We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

1:20:34Derrik Klassen: Fair food is getting smaller. And pricier. We'll have room for fried cookies. Okay, you never overspend on food. What's your deal?

1:20:42Robert Mays: What's his deal? He went to Metro and got$450 in value on the new Samsung Galaxy A37 5G for free. And no activation fees. Free phone? Oh, sign me up. Get that more for your money feeling.

1:20:54Dave Helman: Only on Metro by T-Mobile. Bring your number and activate$40 period plan. $450 based on device discount waived activation fee. Not available if with Metro or T-Mobile in the past 180 days.

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