Week 9 Preview: It's Bills-Chiefs Week

0:28Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. a step back and wondering like, what are they really over the first half of the season? I think that kind of bled into a lot of the conversations we had on the show today that extended to a discussion we had about the AFC playoff race, the wildcard race, which team we preferred in that group. Two of us picked the Broncos. One of us picked the Chargers. I'll leave you to guess which who sat on which side of that line. Hit a little sicko street with Saints Rams where Derek talks about what he wants to see from Roger McCreary in the most Derek Lassen moment of the entire season so far.

1:00Hit a little Bears-Bengals there as well. Talked about the Vikings offseason and whether or not how they approached it is already a mistake, even before we find out how good J.J. McCarthy is. So that was a fun conversation. Before we dig into the show, one thing I wanted to mention to you guys. Exciting news. On January 7th, so right after the regular season ends, right before we start the playoffs, we are doing our first live show for the athletic football show in Chicago at Lincoln Hall, a venue that is near and dear to my heart, a place I've seen a bunch of concerts. My friends got married there.

1:35So couldn't be more excited about that being the setting for our first live show. Tickets will go on sale first for members of our Discord channel on November 6th. So that will be next week, next Thursday. Join the Discord if you haven't. So great time to do it. So you have your first crack at those tickets. There are just 250 seats in the venue. So hopefully those will go pretty quickly. so the Discord is a great way to ensure that you're gonna get in. The link to the Discord is in the show description and we will share the pre-sale password in the Discord. Tickets will go on sale to the general public on November 10th, but we are pumped to finally be making this happen.

2:11It's been something that's been in the works for a very long time, something I have pushed for. I love doing these live shows and we are thrilled to have our first one on the books. January 7th at Lincoln Hall, tickets will go on sale for members of the Discord on November 6th, the general public on November 10th. So with that, let's get to the week nine preview with me, Derek Klassen and Dave Hellman right now.

2:35Week nine is here. We're getting to the halfway mark of the 2025 NFL season. We had a lot of fun stuff to dig into today. The week nine slate isn't overly exciting. Like we only have one game of the week, but I'm really looking forward to some of the conversations that we're going to dig into on this show. Yeah, I think it's going to be fun to, there's a couple like macro things in here, and it's always fun to dig out of the raw data and the coverage numbers and some of the stuff you lose your brain in during a game week and just have a more wide-ranging conversation. So I'm excited to see a couple of those.

3:10Our game of the week this week, it is a pretty big one. We're starting with the Chiefs and the Bills. The game's the week, as always, presented by BetMGM. The Chiefs are two and a half point favorites in Buffalo in this game. I don't know, Dave, why is the Patrick Mahomes-Josh Allen matchup with a two and a half point spread the game of the week? Can you figure out how we got there? OK, all of that stuff is fine and we know that it's Mahomes versus Josh, but it's also a battle of wildcard teams, which is just a silly twist on this matchup. I love the fact that neither one of these teams is in control of their division for what feels like the first time in forever.

3:46I'm sure with some of the slow starts the Chiefs have had, maybe that hasn't been true. But like this deep into the season, it'll be November by the end of the weekend. For neither of these teams to be in first place is definitely a fun little twist on this rivalry. Derek, it has more regular season stakes as far as like the ambitions of these teams than it typically would. Like Dave just alluded to, neither of these teams is leading their division. The Bills are already 0-1 against the Patriots. If the Patriots win this week and the Bills lose, the Patriots are now seven and two and the Bills are five and three as we get to the halfway point in the season.

4:20So beyond the stakes, as it relates to like typically the stakes in this game would be who is the tiebreaker for the number one seed in the AFC. This one feels slightly different, even if we could concede that these are still probably two of the best five teams in the end and the NFL entirely. It's kind of a weird game in that way. and especially for the bills it's like okay in theory you can sell yourself on them playing catch up with the patriots and probably getting there that that is still obviously on the case when you have josh allen but the patriots schedule we've talked about it before is pretty easy for the rest of the way still like it's a little bit it's a little bit tougher than it's been this first half of the season but it's like they should be tougher they should still get to double digits pretty pretty comfortably at this rate assuming they win this week and so it's gonna be hard for the bills to i think catch up to them the way that they want to if they lose this game.

5:05I also think it's interesting because like the I know that these two teams have always been very close and the Bills have actually historically won the regular season matchup pretty consistently and then obviously lost to them in the playoffs for this game specifically. I really do not love the Bills as chances in this game. Obviously, again, when you have Josh Allen, they have some stuff that they can go to, but I will probably be taking the Chiefs this game in a way that maybe in some other years I've been more iffy. Let's dig into what this might look like on both sides of the ball. And let's start with when the Chiefs have the ball.

5:37I was not on the Monday Night Recap show that you guys did. I'm sad to miss it because I have missed talking about the Chiefs offense and Patrick Mahomes considering what they've done over the past month or so. Catch us up. What do you think about what the Chiefs are doing right now? So I was watching this game on the plane. I was very lucky to have good enough internet to watch it on YouTube TV on the plane, which is not always a guarantee. And so that was a fun little moment where I was toggling back and forth between that and the Crazy World Series game, which is great. That is such a great moment when you realize.

6:05Huge win. When you realize the internet connection is good on your flight, it is a joyful feeling. It was a monstrous win. And so to be able to kind of toggle between both of those was a wonderful way to spend my two hour flight to New York on Monday. And I said this in the moment on social media, but this is how I felt watching the game. Patrick Mahomes is kind of like seeing the Matrix right now. Like the way that he is playing, it does feel like reality is slowing down around him. and I have missed this version of Patrick Mahomes. And Derek, I'm going to allude to this a couple there, a couple, I'm going to allude to a couple old conversations that you and I have had over the past year on this show today.

6:41But one that I was thinking about as he was playing the way that he was on Monday night. And I know we threw like one weird interception to Marshawn Lattimore, but I don't really give a shit about that. We were talking about quarterbacks at a crossroads this season. And we did that show at some point in like mid-August. And I brought up Patrick Mahomes on that show because in my mind, he was at a crossroads in kind of the way that we talk about Patrick Mahomes. Because this offseason, there was some growing discussion about whether Patrick Mahomes was undeniably and unquestionably the best quarterback in the NFL anymore.

7:11Josh Allen won the MVP last year. Lamar played as well or better as Josh Allen did last season. And Mahomes, relative to what we have come to expect from him, had had a couple straight down regular seasons. And my thought as we were having that discussion in August was, you know, let's see, right? Let's get him a real left tackle. Let's get him some receivers for a season. And let's just see how things shake out. And to watch what he is doing right now and to watch how comfortable he feels within the offense and just to see this version of him back on an NFL field. It's a warm, welcome feeling for me.

7:46And that's definitely kind of the takeaway I had watching him on Monday night. We are getting truly the best versions of him where the best version of him when he came onto the scene in 2018 2019 was like I'm gonna throw down the field and do some cool shit like that that was what he did he got outside of the pocket he was throwing down the field to Tyree kill and then I think when they got boring in like 2021 as defenses were adjusting to them and then obviously over the last couple of years it's been a lot of quick game it's been a lot of RPOs it's been a lot of how do I get the ball out faster in a way that I didn't and I really think that it's such a cool like obviously that was a good answer for them in the moment because teams just weren't allowing them to do a lot of the deeper stuff.

8:23But I really think he's developed in the sense of like, I think because he came on the scene as like the Brett Favre, like just kind of chucking it kind of quarterback. We don't really conceive of him as the maestro that we would for a Peyton Manning, a Tom Brady, a Drew Brees, whoever it is to me when I watch what he can do pre-snap his footwork, the way that he's able to shortcut stuff, how quickly he can get the ball out in quick game, his navigation of like the one to 10 yard area, knowing just where the little pockets of space are, how to move a linebacker, how to play with leverage. It's as good as I've ever seen.

8:55And oh, also, if he holds the ball, he's going to be the most dangerous player on the field. Like he's an indefensible quarterback. We talked about this on the recap show. He also just he looks like he trusts who's around him again. Finally, that's so it's so good that you mentioned that, because when we were talking, Derek and I, after the Giants game, that's how it felt, is that he just didn't feel comfortable and confident with the offense. It felt unsettled and uneasy, and it does not feel like that at all right now. Which Patrick Mahomes has been one of the best players in the league forever at this point.

9:25It's understandable if he is a walking cliche machine. Most franchise quarterbacks are. That's how they speak. But after the Commanders game, it was so cool to see him say at the podium afterward, he was like, yeah, our record's not as good, but this is a lot more fun. And it looks like it. Yeah. We're having fun watching the Chiefs again, which, you know, They were pretty fun in 2022 after they traded Tyreek, but the last couple years, and specifically last year, obviously was such a slog of high efficiency but boring football. And now you're still getting that stuff, but you can count on some explosives and some Patrick Mahomes uncorking it and just doing some of that unconventional stuff that made him such a sensation.

10:09It's back in a way that we haven't seen on a consistent basis over the last, I would say, at least two years. Derek and I dug into this in the offseason, just the reasons that the Chiefs were not as explosive over the last couple of years and specifically last year. And some of that is just the inefficiency throwing the ball down the field. They were terrible at doing that. But another part of it is that Mahomes just wasn't finding explosives in the creation mode within the offense anymore, like deeper into the down and outside of the pocket. those areas where when he's creating and improvising, they were so dangerous early in his career that had kind of gone away.

10:40And to watch the combination now of all of the stuff early in the down and all of the stuff late in the down, that's back on the menu now. And that is very, very cool. And so Derek mentioned this, like the, what he's doing pre-snap is remarkable. He is throwing in the percentage of his dropbacks that come in less than two and a half seconds is the highest rate in the NFL. And he has the second highest success rate per next gen on those dropbacks of any quarterback in the league. When you play zone against him, his ability to identify where the voids and the windows are going to be before the play even begins is insane.

11:08Like he is seeing the game so crisply there that he can dominate you in the first two and a half seconds of the play. But now he's dominating again as we get deeper into the play. And that's what has been so cool to watch with this version of him in this version of the Chiefs offense. Last year, per true media, on throws of more than four seconds, the Chiefs had seven explosives all of last season, seven, in 17 games. This year, they have 16. In the first eight weeks of the season, they have 16, okay? So that's just the explosive part of it. These are the numbers that are craziest, though. That's like Chiefs compared to the Chiefs.

11:47When you compare Mahomes to the rest of the NFL in those scenarios. This is per NextGenStats. On dropbacks of at least four seconds this year, the league average success rate is 25.4%. As Derek said earlier today, those are typically bad plays. 25.4 % is the league average. Mahomes is at 53.7 % as a success rate on those plays. So more than double the league average. The league average EPA on those plays is negative 0.57. That's horrific, right? Like typically the worst quarterback in the NFL is at like negative 0.25. So that's double the worst play you can have consistently when it comes to NFL quarterbacking.

12:25Mahomes is at plus 0.57, which is double MVP levels of quarterback play. He has 30 and a half total EPA on those plays this year. Next best in the league is Sam Darnold at 2.7. The league as a whole is at negative 623. He is doing a very, very different thing than any other quarterback in football. It's wild. And you saw it last week, Derek. You mentioned a couple of those plays that stood out to you from that Monday night game. The one to Juju where he's moving up in the pocket and kind of slithering to his right and he kind of flips it back across his body to the left. That to me is the exact type of play we're talking about here, where again, reality is just slowing down around him.

13:07He had that play. He had two rolling out to his left where he comes back to the middle of the field. one to I think Rasheed Rice and another one to Noah Gray one of the touchdowns he throws to Rasheed Rice is because Rasheed kind of Rasheed Rice like starts to run a little spot route realizes the play is going late Mahomes makes a little bit of a move in the pocket and Rasheed Rice ends up running because the linebacker is like oh I got to cover Mahomes even the touchdown to Kareem Hunt all of the players come up to the line of scrimmage because Mahomes is out of the pocket and they're like oh my god he's gonna go run for this touchdown and you just find Kareem on the ends of like his what he's doing late in the downs now is we've seen him do this before obviously but we've never seen him do this paired with how insanely efficient he is on the early down stuff we talk about this all the time when in the down are you winning are you winning in the first two and a half two and a half seconds of the play guys like joe burrow are like that you know there are other quarterbacks too that's when they win are you winning a little bit deeper into the play lamar jackson is like that josh allen is typically like that he's doing both he is winning at both ends of the play in ways that we very rarely see from quarterbacks.

14:08Thinking about my favorite Marvel movie right now, he was always Thor, but he found his hammer again. And that is a remarkable difference. Like even if you're a superhuman, you get the hammer back. Immigrant song turns on and just looks it looks a hell of a lot more fun. This is like the second Led Zeppelin reference we've had. That's two weeks in a row with Led Zeppelin references. All right. So Derek just said he's playing like an indefensible quarterback right now. And I absolutely think that is how he feels in this moment. So how do the Bills defend it? I think that is the biggest question about this game.

14:40And Derek, if you look back last year, we've talked about this because of how dominant he feels against zone coverage right now, when you're giving him those windows, I think playing man against the Chiefs is probably the best way to go about it. And the Chiefs wanted to do that in the playoff game last year. They played cover one, like 42 % of the time per next gen stats. But after Christian Benford got hurt, and even before Christian Benford got hurt, the corners were maybe going to make that a little bit of an uphill battle. So now the way that the Bills are constructed, do you feel like they are equipped to trot out that game plan again?

15:10And do you still think that's the best way to approach this version of the Chiefs offense? I think if you have the horses, it is probably the best way to approach this offense. I'm just not confident that this Bills defense as it's currently constructed really does. Like I'm still pretty worried about the cornerback to spot. And I know we might get some Maxwell Harrison in this game to potentially see if he can really be that guy for them. But that is a I've got to wait and see it type of deal for this Bill's defense. And so I think I just struggle with a lot of the other parts of what they're going to get going.

15:40I think there's a chance that on the edges they can get some pass rush pressure, even with just some of their rush for stuff. Like I think we saw last week, even Washington was able to do that. But I actually feel even with Trey Smith's status a little bit up in the air for this game, the Chiefs interior offensive line is awesome. And I think with that being the case, one, it's going to provide Mahomes some stability there. And he's shown his ability to step up in the pocket this season. But it also just makes the pass or the pass protection plan easier in the sense of like we don't have to worry about trying to fix the interior.

16:11We can just help our tackle, specifically our left tackle, probably in this game and just try to get along that way. and that'll allow Mahomes to, you know, get the time that he wants to go do what he's going to do. So this to me is still a, I think in theory, the Bills want to run a lot of man coverage, but I don't know if they have the bodies for it. And there's really no other mode of operation that I see them turn to. And I'm like, man, they're really good at that right now. Like they're a pretty high cover two team, but I don't watch them and go, man, they're just killing teams when they get into this.

16:39It's just like Mahomes will probably be fine against it. Yeah, we noticed the difference not having Josh Simmons last week. him. You saw what Jacob Martin was able to do against Jalen Moore. Jalen Moore is better than the left tackle play the Chiefs were getting for most of last season, but he is still absolutely a step down from Josh Simmons. And so if you get Trey Smith back, I'm 100 % with you on the interior. We talked about this on the offensive line show that we did earlier in the week with Brandon Thorne. Kingsley Sumatai has really settled in at guard. He is playing some good football there.

17:06And so when you combine that with Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith potentially back in the lineup, and even with Jalen Moore, that is a much better five than Patrick Mahomes has played with at any point this season. And that's before they even get Josh Simmons back in the lineup. This applies to both teams, but one underlying storyline I love is just the geezer reunions that the Chiefs and Bills both insist on having like Mike Pinnell immediately re-signed in Kansas City. And then for the purposes of this, Jordan Poyer is back in the starting lineup for the Bills. They called Jordan Phillips up last week.

17:38He did some good work for them. And like, I feel like if If you're a Bills fan, I understand why that makes you roll your eyes because we just keep doing this. But at the same time, it's a fun spot to be for both of these teams where you're like, give me the 34 year old guy and he'll know where to be. And we won't have busts, at least like they are not playmakers at this stage in their careers. But we can just sort of rope this thing together for a couple of weeks and get where we need to be. And it typically works out. I don't know what that means for stopping the most fun version of the Chiefs offense that we've seen in a couple years.

18:15But I do think that's, you know, like having Jordan Poyer back in a matchup like this is, I'm not going to call it fun, but it's just a quirky aspect of this. But yeah, I mean, I don't, I don't love the Bills personnel in this matchup, even, even with Terrell Bernard and Matt Milano probably being back for this game. I would like to see some more, particularly on the back end. That's what worries me in a game like this. And the Bills, unfortunately, in a place where it's one step forward, two steps back. Always. They get Terrell Bernard and Matt Milano back, and now Ed Oliver's going to be out for the foreseeable future.

18:45It just kind of seems to be where things are. At least they have Hogan Joby and Michael Hoyt back in the lineup after coming back from suspension. You felt the difference with Hoyt out there last week. That looked like a guy who was like, he was ready to play some football. Like, he looked so fresh and eager and ready to mess some shit up. And he did. But particularly on the back end, I'm with Derek. Derek, I worry about the Chiefs having the horse or the Bills having the horses. Let's get to the other side of the ball. The number one thing you were looking for, Derek, when the Bills have the ball in this game against the Chiefs offense is what?

19:16This Bills run game, I think, is a unique threat among run games in the entire NFL. One being, you know, you know, there's a couple of numbers for it. Like they right now, when the Bills have the ball, they are in 22 personnel. So two tight ends and two backs. Mostly it's mostly Reggie Gilliam. It's not usually two running backs, but sometimes it actually is for this offense. But they run that 16 percent of the time, which is like it's the most in the NFL. It's a unique threat. And why I think that matters in a game like this is that the Chiefs defense is not that good out of their base looks, which is kind of confusing because Leo Chennault is a really good third linebacker.

19:53I think to me, maybe the issue is that when they are in their base stuff, Spags can't be as much of a mad scientist. And I think that's a little bit of the issue. Whereas when you're in your nickel stuff or even some of your dime stuff that they love, you always know the threat of like spags might just send weird bodies, weird stunts, all this other stuff. And I think when they're in base, you don't get as much of that. You add that on top of the fact that like all of these bills, offensive linemen and blockers can move people. Jackson Hawes has been good. Dawson Knox, I think, has been good in the run game this year.

20:23Reggie Gilliam is one of the best fullbacks in the league. And the offensive line still kicks ass like this is just a very unique run threat that can make this. this game a problem for the Chiefs defense. I'd be curious for y 'all's thoughts on this, because this is my process for like watching a game back. Like if I'm watching a team for the purposes of talking about it on this show, I just pull up the all 22 angles and just watch the game until I notice something. Like that's how I start. And then I go from there. And like not even halftime of the Bills Panthers game, I was like, holy shit, there's Reggie Gilliam again.

21:00Like what, how many snaps of two back stuff did they use? How many, how many snaps of like two tight end did they use? There's Jackson Hawes again. Like, did they ever run 11 personnel? And obviously they ran plenty of it, but you start to notice it after a certain point and they ran 40 % of their snaps in either 21 or 22 personnel. So two backs, two tight ends or two backs, one tight end. And they kicked the Panthers ass. They had, I think they had five explosive plays out of those play sets. And they've done this throughout the year. Don't get me wrong, but it's noticeably ticking up. Like the last two games, they've jumped up to 30 % running their offense out of these sets.

21:39Well, which is it's funny because I think a lot of teams around the league are trying to find these levers of like, all right, how can we create, you know, six and seven man surfaces in the run game and run the ball on the edges? And how can we get teams in base defense? And last year, the Bills had a very simple answer for how they wanted to do that. And it was going with a lot of jumbo. They ran more six offensive line sets than just about any other team in the NFL last year. Well, this year they have Jackson Hawes. And so what they can do is they can get team, they can use 12, 13 personnel or some of this 21 and 22 stuff and get teams in base defense and create those surfaces to run the ball on the edge.

22:14But their sixth offensive lineman is a tight end who can also catch the football. And so the fact that the Bills were the jumbo team last year, but have gone away from it because of what Jackson Hawes has become is actually kind of a fun little wrinkle and detour when you see so many teams around the NFL going the exact other way because their second and third tight ends aren't good enough blockers. And so it's been interesting to watch the bills kind of land in this place. And so Derek, I'm with you. Like I, the numbers are a little bit surprising because it is counterintuitive because I think Chanel is a good run defender specifically because of the different ways that you, they can use him.

22:45And in this game, again, talking about some of those surfaces, the bills are going to try to create with that 12, 22 type stuff. I think Chanel is going to be down on the line of scrimmage because I think they're going to be very cognizant of what the Bills have been able to do getting the ball on the edge over the last couple weeks. So I think the Leo Chanel Jackson Hawes matchup is like strangely important in this game. The fact that that's true, and we've been talking about this for like four minutes, and we have not brought up the person who won the MVP award last year feels telling. And if you watch the Bills passing offense over the last couple weeks, it has felt a little bit unsettled.

23:20It's not bad, right? Josh Allen, I think, is 13th in the NFL in e-paper dropback over the last four weeks, going back to like the Patriots game. But it's not the machine that we have come to understand and expect from this team over the last couple of seasons and even what the passing offense looked like over the first month of this season. So, Derek, when you watch the Bills offense right now and Josh Allen, what is your sense of maybe what feels a little bit unsettled and maybe why they don't feel quite as crisp as they do at their best? They just don't have anybody who scares you down the field.

23:53And I think that they obviously made the bet that Josh Palmer could be that. And we've seen that from him in stretches, but he's injured right now. And so that's obviously takes that away. But for them, for him to be their only option for that, I think has been really frustrating. And I think the thing is, they went into this season making the bet that, OK, Josh Palmer can be better Matt Collins or better Gabe Davis, like better version of whatever that player has been in their offense the past couple of years. And I think that there was some validity to that. And he's been fine when he's been out there.

24:20But the second part of the bet that they made was that Keon Coleman was going to give them something, one, as a contested catch player, but also like a little bit of juice. Like, could he be there some version of like what Rasheed Rice is where we can just feed him some of these slants, some of these shallow crosses, and he can just kind of bully ball his way into 12, 15 yard chunks at a time. And that's just not been the case. Like, I was a guy who really liked what Keon Coleman could be coming out of college. I thought you saw some flashes as a rookie. I've just become increasingly frustrated that there's just not enough detail to his game that he's just not able to get open in the way that like a Rasheed Rice caliber of player is able to get consistently open for his team.

25:00So the guy who's supposed to be their yak, we can just feed him the ball and be a bully player is not who he needs to be. And Josh Palmer, even though he's been fine, has not been on the field. And then they don't have anyone else who stretches the field. So it's just become a very congested offense. And I think you're kind of seeing that bleed into the way that Josh Allen has started to play. It's really sad to hear that from Derek. That's a tough one to see Derek's that lose belief in Keon Coleman. That's something you absolutely did not want to see. When you watch the Bills offense right now, Dalton Kincaid feels like by far their most explosive pass catcher, which that's just not a place you want to land as an NFL team.

25:39Like, I can't think of another team outside of like maybe certain versions of the Chiefs where that's been the case. But even when Travis Kelsey was the dominant force that he has been, that team had like a Tyreek Hill where they've had other speed that they can put on the field. We had this conversation on Sunday. Tucker Craft is the most important pass catcher on the Packers. But the Packers also have Matthew Golden and Christian Watson there to stretch the field. And so there's still juice to go along with it. And it just doesn't feel like the Bills have that right now. And that to me has bled into sort of a frantic feeling with Josh Allen with the passing game overall, where there's a lack of rhythm in a way that's just been much different than what this team has felt like at its best over the last couple of years.

26:23Speaking of reunions, are you ready for Gabe Davis to be part of that solution? Eventually he's at practice. He's practicing with the Bills. This is the tough part is that if I were a Bills fan and we have reached the midpoint again, and we'll talk about this hopefully on our trade deadline show that we're going to do on Tuesday, just who makes these moves and which guys are on the move. The fact that the Bills might be in the wide receiver trade market again, a year after having to trade for Amari Cooper, that would be, I would be losing my mind if I were a Bills fan. And I supported the off-season plan at the pass catching spots for them.

26:57I was like, all right, maybe we can get a little bit of development from Keon Coleman. They go out and get Josh Palmer. Collectively as a group, this might be enough. And so far that just has not been the case. Are you on board with that? Them going out to get somebody? Yeah. Part of me thinks like Brandon Bean might be a little bit gun shy after what happened with the Cooper trade last year. But part of me also think major trade though. Like they traded a third round pick for eight games of Amari Cooper. That's a real trade. Yeah. Yeah. That's fair. Part of me would like to see this team with like a guy like Rashid Shahid.

27:29But at the same time, I'm like, how many mid round picks are we going to give away for receivers for it not to matter down the stretch. Shahid would be awesome because like the oscillation that they could have from being just a punch you in the mouth 22 personnel run game with like oh yeah we also have the fastest player in the league like it's just a terrifying combo for teams to have to deal with. Fastest receiver in the league? I didn't realize you were such a big Shahid fan Derek. He might be. Purely in terms of getting down the field I don't know man. this is the the meme of the girl of the boyfriend looking at the girl walking past him that's Derek with Rashid Shahid right now as Keon Coleman is standing next to him exactly what we've reached I get it though giving giving Josh Allen some legitimate juice I mean we just did all of this with Patrick Mahomes like you see the difference it makes to have some stuff like that in your offense I just I'm sitting here I'm like thinking through it live on the microphone where I'm like have I seen enough from the Bills defense to like think that they're one player away?

28:31Not really, but also give, give that quarterback as much of an opportunity as you can while he's still in his prime. Like there's like 18 voices saying like, ah, that's a bad idea. Just play it out. Be responsible. But I don't know, man, somebody like Rashid Shahid finishing the season in Buffalo, it's pretty intoxicating. All right. We're going to take our first quick break and And then we're going to come back with one thing from three other games in the week nine slate. Let's kick this off with Falcons Patriots. Dave, one thing you're looking for or one thing you're thinking about as it relates to Falcons Patriots.

29:11Here's my take for you about what I think is one of the more difficult matchups to call this weekend. Like I do. I'm in a pick them pool. Well, it's the Falcons. We have absolutely no idea how good the Atlanta Falcons are at football. So how could you pick the game? Thank you. Thank you. Exactly. And so I will submit to you. The only genuine difference between the Patriots and the Atlanta Falcons is that one team, no doubt about it, found its quarterback and Drake May is playing like an MVP and the Falcons. Not to say that Michael Penix can't be that guy, but he hasn't been that guy so far. That's like that's the only real thing.

29:49And don't get me wrong. It's actually kind of true. The rosters are constructed differently. like they do different things. Well, I'm not saying they're the same exact team, but for all intents and purposes, that is the difference. Here's what I will say. Here's the other key difference that I think is worth bringing up. And I was thinking about this today. The Falcons last year, I was very excited about what year two of this offensive staff might look like. They did a lot of fun stuff last year. It's like bells and whistles and motions and all the bunches that they were using and just the ways that they were using B.

30:18John Robinson. And I think that has still been true. Like when you look at some of the things the Falcons are doing structurally, a lot of it is very showy, especially in the ways that they're trying to use Bijan. And so those ideas in a vacuum, I think are pretty exciting. They have not been that good in practice. I don't think this right now, even outside of the quarterback play, feels like a cohesive vision on offense. The Patriots, the things that they're doing, some of them are a little bit showy and exciting, right? Like some of the split back stuff and some of the run game designs they were getting into against the Browns last week.

30:49but overall even if the plan on offense and the construction offense Derek is maybe a little bit more boring quote unquote the Patriots have a cohesive vision on offense right now that is driven by the quarterback and so I think for the most part what you're saying is right I think that right now the Patriots have an understanding of what they want to accomplish on offense and how they're trying to get there and I don't think the Falcons quite feel that way do you think that's fair, Derek? I think that is fair. And I think, you know, part of that is like Josh McDaniels is just calling a really good offense.

31:22And so that is certainly part of it. But I do lean towards this being very like quarterback skill set driven. Like to me, Drake may can handle everything. It's a chicken or egg thing. It's hard to know which one comes first. Right. Like, but like when I watch May, I'm like, okay, he can get under center. He can play action. He can turn his back. He can, we can roll him out if we want to, we can just do five step pure from the gun. We can get five out in the route because we know that he'll check it down. We can also get two out in the route and do max protect. And we know that he can make any throw on the field.

31:50Whereas when I watch Michael Penix and kind of the way that they have to construct this Falcons offense, it's a lot of gun or pistol. They can't really get under center because I don't know if they don't trust maybe his mobility or they he doesn't love turning his back to the defense on some play action stuff like we've talked about with some quarterbacks like a Joe Burrow doesn't really love a whole lot of that. And he doesn't throw between the numbers a lot, which is true of him in college and has been true of him for the most part during his tenure as an NFL quarterback. And I think why that's so I think maybe frustrating or difficult for Zach Robinson to navigate is he's a Sean McVay guy.

32:25And what did that offense do? Well, they got under center. They play action and they were able to throw over the middle of the field. And so I think it's been a lot of like Like trying to retrofit where he came from onto what the reality of his quarterback and team is right now. I know they had a bye and I know he missed a game. I get that. But Michael Penix, among quarterbacks who have been like their primary, the team's primary starter, he's dead last in play action as well as dead last in attempts over the middle of the field. So that's absolutely right. And you can tell. I've used this analogy before.

32:58I just I love it because this is another thing I do every week, like Monday into Tuesday. You're just reviewing the most recent week of data. And we all see those charts where the logos are interspersed on the axes. And typically, like good, well-functioning teams, they're like trending in positive directions. Like, oh, the Bills are getting a little bit healthier on defense. So like you're seeing them trend in the right direction and defensive EPA per play and success rate and all that stuff. The Atlanta Falcons just bounce around the graph, willy-frickin-nilly, like they're here one week and then they just drop to the other side.

33:36It's incredible. You realize that Michael Penix, he has had a game this year where he was first in the league in success rate for that week. And he has also had games where he was 26th and 31st. It's just impossible to keep up with. And obviously, the Atlanta Falcons running game has been similarly frustrating. They do not commit to it to a degree that you would expect them to with the horses that they have in that element of their game. But the funny part is, I would argue, and Derek, this is not about Drake May. Don't come for me. Everything else about the Patriots, it's not as unpredictable, but it's also, there's not as much of a guiding light.

34:19Like the Patriots are not good at running the football. Their defense is like solid, but it's not anything to get super excited about. Their performance against Dylan Gabriel was their first performance in the top half of the league in defensive passing success rate. And again, that's when you're going against just a horribly broken Cleveland Browns team. The steadying factor here, like the thing that makes the New England Patriots a good football team is that the quarterback is top five in like every metric imaginable. And that's that's the difference here. Like if Drake may look like he was still figuring it out and not doing everything consistently, the Patriots would probably be like four and three or three and four and pissing us off.

35:02But they're six and two with a chance to win the division because the light came on for Drake May. And it's just it's funny to see this juxtaposition where the Patriots look good and are and kudos to them because they did. They did a great job with their quarterback. And it's not to say Penix can't be that guy. He just isn't that guy so far. The play action thing is a good thing to point out as it relates to the Falcons offense, because that is one thing that is a little bit surprising to me is that I just, even if they were going to live in the shotgun and live in the pistol, I was still expecting to see a decent amount of play action because I think one of the reasons they weren't doing with Kirk is that Kirk couldn't really move.

35:41And you don't really need to move a lot to use play action from the pistol. But I think that was just one thing where like, yeah, we can't really have him do anything, right? Like we're not even ball handling type stuff. He's going to be a statue. you. Being in the shotgun and in the pistol does not prevent you from using play action. Like the team I thought they'd feel a little bit more like this year was the Tua Dolphins, where even if you're going to live in the shotgun and pistol consistently, the Dolphins rank near the top of the league in play action almost every single year when Tua was there.

36:09You have to be creative in how you're going to do that. Again, you have to do a lot of weird ball handling stuff where you're turning your back to the defense from the pistol in order to kind of create some of that confusion and misdirection. I expected to see more of that from the Falcons than I've seen. And so that was something people talk about this offseason or Mina talking about it and being like, man, if they're going to live in the pistol, how are they going to use play action? I didn't think they were mutually exclusive, Derek, but they seem to be more mutually exclusive than I had thought coming into the season, which is a little bit surprising.

36:38Well, and I think it's like if you're going to be a play action, a comfortable play action quarterback, you need you need to be do one of two things. You need to be able to assess the defense properly once you whip your head around. And some guys are really good at that like going back to the rams matthew stafford is incredible at that like he can whip his head around and he knows where all the pieces on the board are or you have to be like a to a tongue of iloa or ryan tannahill where you are just gonna fire that thing in there no matter what like you have to just trust that it will be there and you've ripped that shit and michael pennix to this point has just not proven that he's that comfortable putting the ball through the car wash yet which is kind of frustrating because he obviously has the velocity to do it he's got a quick release.

37:15It's just not there. Yes. It's just not there yet. Next game I wanted to dig into here. I think that the Patriots Falcons game in a way is kind of like a fun house mirror situation where you have these two teams and year two of with year two quarterbacks and they've kind of gone in divergent directions. The Colts Steelers game is also a little bit of a fun house mirror game to me because I think these are two teams that this offseason looked at the rest of their rosters and said, OK, if we find the right quarterback from the right price, we can make some noise this year. And the parallels are not just the mindset.

37:49The parallels are how this actually played out. Daniel Jones and Aaron Rodgers are on essentially the same deal right now. It's pretty much a one year,$14 million contract for both of those guys. And I think it's it would shock a lot of people that the team that actually was a quarterback away, like a functional quarterback away from being one of the best teams in the NFL this offseason was not the Pittsburgh Steelers. It was actually the Indianapolis Colts. And so for these two teams to kind of take divergent paths from a similar sort of offseason, I think it's Derek been one of the more fascinating storylines about the entire league so far this year.

38:24And, you know, we've kind of joked about it. The funny part is like the Steelers offense is everything that you could have bargained for when you signed Aaron Rodgers. Like this was, he's been better than I even expected it. Then you either could have ever could have expected to be. They're 12th in offensive DVOA. They were ninth before last week. Some of that is the teams that are playing against, but we'll talk about cohesive vision. There are limitations with that group because of what Aaron Rodgers is, because of who the pass catchers are. But that thing has come together in like a very real way.

38:52The problem is the defense that was supposed to be good. And that was supposed to be something where you could set it and forget it is actively bad right now. The defense is terrible. And we like, I, I think there were some concerns coming in and we both shared some of those but I like literally by like when did we do that take tribunal like week two or three I was like this is they're not gonna fix this because you were out and and I still feel that way like Jalen Ramsey you know that was a big bet that they made and he I don't think has played very well for them I think the edge room has been not as good as they wanted to be like TJ Watt is still good but not superstar caliber the way that he used to be and then the middle of the defense with the way that the safeties are playing obviously they just went out and traded for one in Kyle Duggar to see if that can give them a little bit more juice.

39:36And then the linebackers have been a huge problem, which I think in this game specifically against a Colts offense, that their whole thing is that pre-snap, they're going to use a bunch of motion and eye candy to get linebackers moving. And then also RPO you after the snap on different looks like they're just, this is a put the linebackers in hell game. And this is a bad linebackers are in hell defense. Between putting them in hell with the stuff you're doing before the snap and also the Colts offensive line just getting to the second level like at a phenomenal rate this has the potential to be fun to watch back if you're not a Steelers fan yeah it is pretty crazy that again the Colts were the team that actually was a quarterback away this off season and I will say we did kind of nod to that in the preview that we did for the Colts Derek I'm not asking for a pat on the back but like when we were trying to plan out what is the best version like what does success look like for the Colts we had a hard time conceiving of it because I think a lot of people in that moment were having a long hard time conceiving of it.

40:32And the argument I laid out was the best case scenario for the Colts is and for Chris Bauer and for the decision makers there that are trying to hang on to their jobs. It's we get to the end of the season and we leave with an undeniable fact that this team is a quarterback away, that all the other elements of the team, offense, defense are positioned for this team to be competitive if you drop the right quarterback in there. So it didn't involve Daniel Jones being good. Like that was like, I didn't even conceive of that being possible. Do you remember the other conversation we had over the summer, which was basically how good does Daniel Jones have to be for this to be a good thing that Anthony Richardson didn't work out?

41:10I know we got a lot of games left to play, but I mean, it's starting to feel like that's a real conversation you have to have. I can't believe we're saying it after the way it went when Daniel Jones was good for the Giants, but that feels like a conversation worth having if this continues of like Daniel Jones's long-term future in Indianapolis. Yeah. I mean the, again, my argument was when you find the right quarterback to drop in there, maybe this will work and Daniel Jones might be the right quarterback, which is pretty crazy to think about. And I thought that looking good would be like what the Vikings were with Darnold last year.

41:42Like the Vikings thing with Darnold was fun, but they were the best offense in the league. Yes. They were the 14th best offense in the league who had some really fun games and moments because Justin Jefferson is crazy and Darnold will fire that thing in there and all that stuff. But it was for all intents and purposes, like a pretty average offense. And if the Colts would have even got there, that would have been a pretty successful, I think, run and would have been proof of concept to what you're talking about of like, oh, maybe we're a quarterback away. I did not at all perceive the world, even as someone who was really high on their supporting cast, that number one offense was on the table.

42:13I really like this as a parallel and a thing to think about, because with the Colts, I think there are a couple elements of this team that are better than what the Vikings were doing last year. Even when the Vikings were explosive and they were able to push the ball down the field. We always knew that the pass catching group for the Vikings was good. The play caller for the Vikings was good. The offensive line in the running game for the Vikings was not good. The Colts have a top five offensive line and arguably the best running back in the NFL to go along with the pass catchers and the play caller.

42:41And now you combine that with Daniel Jones playing really well and doing some things under pressure and in collapsing pockets and just playing at a level that is far beyond anything anybody could have imagined. But I think that there are some parallels, Derek, with the Vikings and the Colts in terms of like the pass catchers and the play caller. But the Colts have also added the run game infrastructure that right now feels as good as any in the league. And that this is what you get on the other side of that. And I think that is combined with the fact that Shane Steichen is just on like a f***ing heater.

43:10Like we've talked about this a lot, but he is on an absolute heater and what he is potentially going to do to those linebackers in this game, considering what he has done to most of the linebackers this team has played against this year. I think there could be some real carnage there and it's going to be worth watching. Let's get to our next one here, the Broncos and the Texans. Derek, what is one thing you're looking for in Broncos Texans this weekend? I so badly want to believe in what we saw from the Texas offense last week. And I do think CJ Stroud very obviously played his best game of the year.

43:43We got some flashes from some of the young players with Jaden Higgins, Jalen Knoll. And I think that that will over the course of the rest of the season probably be stuff that bears fruit for them and I think the offense can be fine I think in this game specifically and how it relates to last week last week I think CJ Stride played really well under pressure and was getting the ball out throwing confidently I think relative to what he's done for a lot of the year that was a little bit of an outlier performance like I still think he can do that stuff but he was just on a tear that week I think against the Broncos front that is even faster is even better at scheming up blitz stuff to me particularly over the middle of the interior and like trying to pick on the back and get him to pick who he's got to pick up in pressure I think that's going to be a really really big issue for this team so I think you'll get a couple of one-on-one wins from Higgins or maybe Jalen Knoll on whoever is playing cornerback two for the Broncos in this game because there's no Patrick Sertan but I just do this still feels like a front matchup that is way way overmatched for the Houston Texans.

44:42I hate to do that when it's the NFL and we know how much talent is on every roster, even bad teams, even banged up teams. But like what the Niners are trotting out right now in terms of pressuring the quarterback. It's barely an NFL team. I mean, like the players may eventually be good, but they're all like 21 years old and third round picks. I mean, that's the status of the Niners defense. CJ Stroud dropped back 42 times last week. He was pressured nine times. That's yeah. And he did play well. And I love it. He played extremely well. It was awesome watching him throw the ball around the way that we remember from when he was a rookie.

45:17But what Denver's going to offer is substantially more high-powered than what he saw last week. Again, this is one of those things. I can't remember what the context was where we mentioned this before. It might have been like the Giants where we were all excited about them beating the Eagles and we're trying to figure out how good the Giants were. And it's like the Saints game was 10 days ago, right? That's kind of how I feel about the Texans right now. It's like, yeah, CJ Stroud looked great last week against the Niners. It's currently October 30th. The game they played on Monday night against the Seahawks was 10 days ago.

45:49So like, am I supposed to just forget that that happened? And so where the Texans fall between the game they had against that version of the Niners defense and the game they had against that version of the Seahawks defense. I think that remains my question. Like, where do the Broncos sit on that spectrum? It is much, much closer to the Seahawks than it is to the Broncos. It definitely is. And like it's construction wise, obviously a much different defense and the Broncos are going to be missing their best player. And so I know all of that. But like this just feels like a sometimes the front is so much better than the offensive line that almost every other factor in the game doesn't matter.

46:24And I really think this Denver I mean, obviously, the pass rush has been great. Like Nick Benito, I think is even better than he was last year when he made all pro. Jonathan Cooper has been incredible. DJ Jones at defensive tackle is back to being just an absolute demon against the run and also a little bit against the pass. Like the way that front is playing, I just it's hard to see what the path forward for Houston is. It sounds like Nico Collins may be back this week, which obviously would be a big win for the Texans. And I'll be curious again, structurally what we see from Houston, because last week, it really did feel like they found something with some of the jumbo stuff that they were doing in the play action that they were leaning into off of that.

47:00And so if we're adding Nico Collins back into the mix, Derek, for an offense that wants to be that vertical play action, put your foot in the ground, let's throw some drift routes type team that they were when CJ Stroud was at his best as a rookie, it does feel like they're trying to recapture that a little bit. And so I'll be curious to see what that approach looks like when you're doing it against a team built like the Broncos. All right, we're going to take one more quick break here, and then we're going to come back and talk about the Broncos, the Texans, and just the rest of the AFC wildcard race as it currently exists.

47:36I'm realizing now that as I pick out the conversations I want to have on this show, it's all based on which recap shows I'm on and which ones I'm not. And so I really wanted to talk about Patrick Mahomes because I wasn't around on Monday night. I missed last Thursday because I was working on stuff for the TV show. So I couldn't talk about the Chargers. And so as I was like figuring out what I had to shoehorn into this, I was like, how can I talk about the Chargers this week? Robert's like, my takes, my takes. It is funny that I don't consider myself someone who has to get them off. And then as we're programming the show, I realized that's not the case whatsoever.

48:09And so we're going to talk about the Chargers in a way here, because I do want to just have a take a step back and let's consider this discussion about the current state of the AFC wildcard race because I don't really know how I would handicap it right now. And I think it's kind of an interesting spot. I'm using the Broncos Texans game as a little bit of a jumping off point here because the Texans are still involved in this. So I just want to go through some of the playoff odds that Austin Mock from the athletic has for some of these AFC teams. So in the AFC specifically, there are four teams with at least a 90 % chance to make the playoffs for Austin's numbers.

48:47We do not have to discuss them in any form in this conversation. They are the Colts, the Patriots, which is still hilarious, the Bills, and the Chiefs. Those teams have a 90 % better chance, 90 % or better chance to make the playoffs per house and box numbers. Let's push them to the side. There are two teams in the wild card race, sort of, that I don't really think apply to this discussion because their most likely path to the playoffs is to win the AFC North. Those are the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Baltimore Ravens. Their chances to make the playoffs and to win the division are almost the same.

49:19And so I think that gives you an idea of how they would make the playoffs. That leaves us with a handful of teams that I want to talk about in this discussion. Okay. That is the Denver Broncos, the Los Angeles Chargers, the Jacksonville Jaguars, and the Houston Texans, those four teams. As things currently stand right now, which of those four teams do you feel best about? I think for me, it's Derek, you want to take this or me? Yeah, I can go. I, so I want to be clear. I don't feel great about any of these, but I'm probably going to pick Denver weirdly, which like, maybe this is me just like, I need them to be good for the sake of our windspool.

49:57But I really do think that they, I was wondering where your motivation was coming from here because that's a shocking choice from you. That was probably my tiebreaker. So I was like, I need them to be good. So I'm going to like wish cast this a little bit, but I really do think that their defense is playing at like a, I think that there are probably four, maybe five defenses in the league where you can make a case that they are the best in the league. And I think Denver is absolutely up there for all the reasons that we just talked about, especially when Sertan is playing. And for as much as I don't like watching the offense and I have some frustrations with it, and I think that there are limitations outside of when they play the other elite defenses, it mostly works and keeps them in a lot of these games and gives them a chance.

50:35And so I just think that that combination is going to be enough to get them to January. I don't know if they're the scariest of these teams in January necessarily, but I think I probably have the most faith that they're going to be able to finish to get this thing over the finish line. I think the Broncos are the most complete team among the ones that we listed. That's as far as I really thought about it. I don't disagree with that. I think that's right. Like when you look at the Broncos roster as it stacks up to the three other teams that we talked about, I think that's kind of undeniable that they're the most complete team.

51:08The Broncos have the best offensive line among all of those teams. The Broncos probably have the best defense among all of those teams. The Texans are right there, but the offensive line part, let's push to the side. I think the Broncos and Texans are different qualities when it comes to their point out front, right? So I'm fine saying that. And maybe this is recency bias. And maybe I've been too swayed by the game I rewatched this morning because I did not do it on the recap show. I think I might feel this way, but I think it might be the Chargers for me. and maybe one game against a Vikings team with Carson Wentz shouldn't push me there.

51:41But with the Broncos or the Chargers specifically, we have this idea of who the Chargers were against the Giants. And you've brought this up multiple different times since that game happened, where that representation of the Chargers is not necessarily accurate. The offensive line was in complete tatters. Justin Herbert is running for his life. That's not a fixed version of the Chargers. They have gotten healthier both up front and on defense. And so for me, getting Joe Allback and what the offensive line looked like against that Minnesota team, for me, it's like a binary with the Chargers offensive line.

52:16Are you good enough to make the quarterback viable? If the answer to that is yes, then the Chargers suddenly become very interesting to me because of this version of Justin Herber and what he is bringing to the table. And so even if I feel much better about the overall construction and the roster that Denver has, the way that Justin Herbert is playing, if everything else is good enough to make him a viable player, I still think I might pick the Chargers among that entire group. The Chargers siren song is just irresistible to you. I really was. It's so funny because I was ignoring it all offseason.

52:51You gotta block your ears and like tie yourself to the mast. Here's why I'm choosing to believe yet again and I know it's going to come back and haunt me. this version of Justin Herbert does feel different. This is the version of Justin Herbert that I have wanted all along. Like I have not been over the last couple of years, one of these people who has been like a true, steadfast, unwavering Justin Herbert believer. There have been a lot of stretches over the last three seasons or so since his rookie year where I've become frustrated with some of the ways that he was approaching the game and the position.

53:22Now I've talked about this a million times. It felt a little bit too robotic in moments where he was a little bit too risk averse. The ball was coming out of his hands a little bit too quickly. And I said this a bunch. I wanted Justin Herbert to be like 10 % dumber. I wanted a little bit more Josh Allen in Justin Herbert. And now that has happened. Like we are getting that version of Justin Herbert where you're combining all of the physical talent he is bringing to the position with a mindset where he's playing a little bit looser. He's trying to create. And I think there are a few things that might be driving this, but I'm happy that we've landed in this point.

53:57Like Justin Herbert getting like punched in the face by Jim Harbaugh before games and like dating pop stars. Like this version of him, I do think that it has created a different sort of player than the one we have ever seen before. It took six years, but Justin Herbert finally looks like a West Coast quarterback who like plays in Southern California. He's at Halloween parties with pop stars. He's courtside at the Laker game. He was at the World Series. He's at the World Series. Like you made this joke earlier today. Like this is the first time in his entire life that Justin Herbert has ever had like dinner at Nobu.

54:30Like that has never been a life that Justin Herbert has lived. He's like been playing with the rodents that he owns in his apartment. Like that's most of what we've gotten from Justin Herbert. And so the fact that we have this like looser, more carefree, I'm just going to kind of f*** around version of this guy. Even if everything else around him is not quite up to the level we want it to be. I don't know. I choose to believe in this. I can imagine a conversation between Justin Herbert and Madison Beer where she's like, you've been here since when? And like, this is your first time in Hollywood or your first time in Malibu?

55:03And he's just like, well, yeah, like I go to work and I go home. Yes. Like I can picture that pretty clearly. I absolutely can. And so I and this is a joke, but like there are ways that we see this manifesting in the way that he is playing. Justin Herbert so far this year, eight weeks into the season, has more EPA on scrambles than in any other full season since his rookie year. And he's closing in on that. And so that like the creation element that he's bringing to the offense, the fact that we have a Rondé Gadsden kind of coming on as a secondary pass catcher for this team, combined with the receivers who are objectively good players.

55:36The offensive line is getting healthier and you get Joel back in the mix and the defense is getting a little bit healthier. I still have talent concerns overall in the defense, especially when we compare it to a team like the Broncos, Derek. But if the defense gets Khalil Mack back and now we get to a place where they can be a top half of the league defense again, combined with the gear that Justin Herbert can potentially give you on offense, I'll probably end up regretting this, but I am choosing to believe in the Chargers. Derek since you and I agree since you and I chose the Broncos and Robert chose the Chargers help me reconcile this I think the world of Justin Herbert I don't really like Bo Nix or the Denver offense all that much the Chargers have swept the Broncos every time they've played since Bo Nix got drafted like they swept them last year and they won the first meeting earlier this year so why do I like the Broncos in totality more than I like the Chargers.

56:33It's a great question. Like, is it just my reluctance to let go of how bad they can look when they're banged up enough? Because we watched the Vikings game together and we recapped it. Like, they beat the shit out of those guys. And Joe Alt looked amazing. Zion Johnson was doing his thing in that game. Like, I completely get where Robert's coming from. And for some reason, I trust the team that doesn't have Justin Herbert just like a smidge more And I don't really know why. I think at least for me, part of that is when they were able to do that against the Broncos previously, like the Chargers defense was really, really like, especially last year, the Chargers defense was really, really good.

57:14They're just not playing to that level right now. And I know that, again, there are some issues with what the Broncos offense are. I don't love some of the limitations that Bo Nix brings, but like he can still make some throws and the run game has been better than it certainly was last year. And I think run game specifically against what this Chargers defense has been is kind of the way to beat them up on that side of the ball. So this to me feels like quarterback agnostic. I just like a lot of the other things about the Denver roster. The one thing that I will say towards Robert's point that actually has maybe started to get me a little bit closer to the Chargers.

57:46The run game in the offense overall is like better than I thought that we were going to get from this team this year. I thought this was going to be another Justin Herbert against the world year. And at times it still does have to be that. But they've actually found something in the run game over the past like month or so that I'm like, all right, if they can hang on to that and keep him out of third and nine all the time, we might be cooking here. And I think that brings me back to that point about the Giants game where it felt like we were starting like a slow descent into that feeling of where it was Justin Herbert against the world.

58:14And I'm just trying to push back against how seared into my brain that game happens to be. And so I think that's why the building belief has happened in the charters, even if I'm going to regret it almost immediately. I think I'm trying to push back against my tendency to just fall in love with the teams with good quarterbacks. And this is like my my attempt to do that. We this is very much the bell curve of the Cro-Magnon brain rotting person with the Enlightenment on the other side where it's like good quarterback, good team. Well, what about all these other things? And what about the EPA per drop back and the man coverage rates and the blitzes and all the stunts that the Broncos can use?

58:50and like the quality of pass protection about the Broncos offensive line and just how complete and well put together this roster is. And then we get to the other side and just like good quarterback, good. I think that's kind of the place where I've landed. I'm putting up the hood and I'm just being that version of myself right now. All right, let's get to Sicko Street for week nine. We always do this every single preview show, pick out a couple of games that may not seem great on paper, but we're gonna try to give you maybe a couple selling points as to why you should watch them. This segment overall ball is just where Derek really gets to shine.

59:21And so we're going to let him kick this off again. These saints playing the Los Angeles Rams this week, Derek, what is the compelling part of this game that should have people tuning in? I think people are used to me saying that you should tune in and watch the saints quarterback. I'm going to be so real with you. I do not care about what we get from Tyler Shuck this week. I am very interested. I am very interested in what we're going to get from the new nickel that the Rams have just traded for. And here's a couple of reasons why I think this is interesting. No, no, no. You don't get to go. I want to break this down before we actually dig into the Roger McCreary part of this.

59:57In any other scenario, the reason that you should watch the Saints is there's a top 40 pick starting his first NFL game. Derek is rejecting that. So we've gotten the sickest version of this possible presentation because we're not even going to talk about that. That is an easy sell for why you should watch the one and seven saints team. Derek is going with the nickel corner whose position we have to figure out as the reason that you should watch saints Rams. Derek is just a galaxy brain. You, you have reached your finest, your final form right now, my friend, this is a peak Derek behavior. Well, if it's an easy sell, what's the point of sicko street?

1:00:34You know what I'm saying? Like, come on now. So yes, I do want to talk about the new nickel who the reason this is so ridiculous. there's only been one Rams DB who has played every single snap for this team this season it's Quentin Lake who plays the nickel for the Rams and now they just traded for Roger McCreary who has only ever really played the nickel for the Tennessee Titans now for most teams I would be like all right I don't really know how they're going to use this guy the Rams are in a unique position in terms of their personnel they are a dime team 34.3 percent of the time which is the most in the league.

1:01:09They have also had 130 snaps this year of Cam Curl, Cam Kitchens, their two main safeties, Quentin Lake, their main nickel, but also kind of a safety sometimes. And Jalen McCullough, who is like their extra, he's like their dime DB. They've had 130 snaps of those guys on the field. In my mind, one of the two things they want to do here is have Roger McCreary on the field instead of McCullough, have him man up on whoever the number two for teams are, and let Lake kind of be your other bigger body, like kind of a safety, kind of a nickel, kind of a linebacker in the box. The other thing that I've noticed is that the Rams in some of their base and even a little bit of their nickel stuff have started to take Kinchins off the field in favor of Quinton Lake to put him back at safety.

1:01:53So I wonder if they like in their base nickel stuff, want to have Lake at safety and actually put McCreary in the nickel and kind of move around their personnel that way. I'll be curious to see if they want to try McCreary on the outside too. Because for all the reasons that you just laid out, nickel corner is not the biggest pressing need for this team. Outside corner is probably a more pressing need for this team. Roger McCurry has played three snaps at outside cornerback so far this year per PFF. If you go back to last year, he played 10. In 2023, that's the last time that we've actually seen him get real snaps on the outside.

1:02:28He played 218 of those. So it's been a while since he has done it. But for this team specifically, I think you can make an argument that that might be the place where they need him most, even if there's a ton of validity to everything that Derek just said. And what's interesting to me about this is this is one of two teams that is going to have to be figuring this out on the fly with the cornerback trade that they have made this week. Because both the Rams and the Eagles, if you look at the state of their current roster, nickel corner is not their most pressing need. Quinn Lake has been one of the best players on the Rams defense.

1:02:59Cooper DeGene is one of the best nickels in the league. now that Kyle Hamilton is playing nickel again, we can't just definitively say he's the best one, but he's in the top three. He's a really, really good player. And both of those teams traded for nickel corners this week. So it seems with the Eagles, this might push Cooper DeGene outside a little bit more often. You're going to see Michael Carter in the slot. I totally get that. That's easier for me to imagine. The Rams, I think, is a more complicated thing to figure out. And so I will be very curious to see what the plan actually ends up looking like.

1:03:27Having options isn't a bad thing, right? I do. I think like the Saints part of it all is just intriguing from a political standpoint like how Tyler Shook actually plays in this game is less interesting to me because clearly this is a game that the Rams should win I think we would all agree with that but the political aspect of like okay from a if you're Mickey Loomis like from the front office standpoint Spencer Rattler played longer than you probably would have preferred like I don't think it's a coincidence that they're yanking him at the first real sign of trouble. The shortest hook possible, considering how well he had played.

1:04:03Yeah, and after he's played well for eight weeks. So you lost more of the season than you would probably prefer. And now how long can Tyler Shook play well enough to justify this? Like, I mean, if he's freaking awful to the point of like potentially losing the locker room. You could just put Ruther back in. There's really nothing preventing you from doing that. Absolutely not. There's nothing preventing you other than the fact that this is a top 40 pick and you would prefer... that A, he play well, and B, you just get to see as much of him as possible to know what he is. I'm in a spot, and maybe this is unfair to Tyler Shuck, where I think this team probably should be drafting a quarterback next year anyway, based on how bad they're going to be.

1:04:39I actually think the most important thing for the long-term health of the Saints and for the viability of the Kellen Moore era is to not lose the locker room. Yeah. I would rather, like, put the best team on the field I could in order to, like, create some sort of internal buy-in rather than what do, how much can I get? How much can I see from Tyler Shuck? That would be my number one priority. And so that's why I wouldn't be surprised if we saw Spencer Rattler again at some point this season. And I completely agree with you. And I kind of think that's what's going to happen. And you're right. Like the Saints own the tiebreakers that put them in the number one spot right now.

1:05:11Like even if we're not in love with the college class as it stands right now, you should probably draft a quarterback when you get this opportunity. And that's why we had reservations about this whole thing during the summer. And so that aspect of it is interesting to me, even if how Tyler Shook actually plays in a game where he's a two touchdown underdog isn't all that interesting. It seems crazy to say this, but I do believe that it's true. There are different ways that you can go to in 15. Sure. Oh, yeah. There are different ways. It can have a different sort of feel. And we said this earlier in the season.

1:05:44It was going about as well for the Saints as it possibly could have with Spencer Rattler. They were embarrassing. They were competitive. They looked like a functional NFL football team and they continued to lose. If all of those things are no longer true with Tyler Shuck, I think there becomes an argument for going back to Spencer Rattler and just continuing to hope that you lose in more honorable ways. I'd argue that you have to after a certain point. I get it. You're going to give the guy an opportunity. You drafted him top 40, but we know how viable the Saints have looked for two months now.

1:06:13And if they don't look like that anymore, you can't ask a roster full of professionals to play eight more games that way. so I mean it's on Tyler Shuck to play I mean maybe not play better than Rattler but just play a viable style of football let's get to our next one here the Bears at the Bengals we do not have spent a lot of time on this the reason that you guys should watch this game is that you should know that if it goes poorly I will be going through something that I've almost never gone through as a Bears fan like when I think about the worst Bears games of my like of modern life of like since 2010.

1:06:49I think the most despondent I've ever been after a Bears game is the Tebow game in 2000. Was it 2011, Beller? Was that the Marion Barber game? It feels right. I think it was - Marion Barber going out of bounds. Marion Barber going out of bounds against the Broncos and Tebow orchestrating the comeback. I was watching, it's fitting because today's the 10 year anniversary of ground unfolding, but I was watching that game at Bill Simmons' house and that game ended that way. And I just got in my car and kind of drove around Los Angeles for like two hours. Like I just didn't know what to do. Like I was just despondent.

1:07:18There have been other games that have been uglier than that. Like the Patriots game from last year is a low point of just offensive football from the Bears. But at least in that moment there, it was, I'd kind of come to terms with the solution because it was like, well, you're just going to fire Shane Walter tomorrow. Like there's no way you can bring back the offensive staff again. If the Bears can't perform against this version of the Bengals defense, there is no easy place to land about what the solution is. what if they like what if they lose the game that the Bengals just lost to the Jets like if they that's okay okay yeah that's okay say it was 39 38 it's fine that's okay that's totally fine like the defense is not very good and if Joe Flacco plays we've seen what the Bengals can be offensively that version is acceptable if the Bears don't have a good offensive day against this version of the Bengals offense or this version of the Bengals defense I'm not going to be in a good spot like there they might be a situation where you guys have to handle the show tomorrow night because here's the thing it's and the cowboys because you know the the bears offense shredded the cowboys defense but the thing to me and i was actually having a conversation uh about this with someone the other day the cowboys defense is bad but they they don't do like cartoonishly bad things where was you watch the bangles defense they do like cartoonishly bad guys are spinning in circles completely running the wrong way on plays not knowing where they need to be like it is a the The Bears should be able to handle themselves and be adults in this game, you would hope.

1:08:45I 100 % agree with that. And I want to be clear about this. I'm not expecting them to play poorly. And I think that's what's most scary about this. The fact that I'm not expecting them to play poorly. And if they do, what that will do to my psyche. There are expectations here. And the fact that the Cowboys game exists, we saw what they did to Dallas. And the Bengals have a worse defensive success rate than the Cowboys right now. Like maybe it doesn't have to be quite as beautiful. Maybe you don't have the really fun flea flicker. But yeah, if the Bears can't top 28 points and win this game or at least score enough points to where it's not the offense's fault, I don't blame you if you're in a dark spot.

1:09:23And so we're going to round things out today with a little take tribunal. Every once in a while, we like to spend a little bit of time throwing out a take and seeing how the other two guys feel about it. And I want to talk about the Vikings-Lions game. But there's really no way to kind of preview this game, considering we haven't seen J.J. McCarthy play in like a month and a half. And so I kind of wanted to take it to more of a big picture place as it relates to the Vikings. Obviously, one of the biggest questions of the week in the remaining nine weeks of the season is how J.J. McCarthy is going to play for Minnesota.

1:09:53I think we're already in a place where you can call the Vikings offseason plan as it relates to the quarterback and everything else a mistake before we even get an answer on J.J. McCarthy. It's dark and it's tough. I feel for the Vikings because not all of it, but a lot of what they did this offseason felt so defensible. I defended it all. I supported and defended all of it in the moment. And so this is not me trying to lambast the Vikings for what they did. That would be hypocritical of me. But the fact that their decisions have gone so poorly And then the like the opposite side of those decisions have gone so well, in particular for the Indianapolis Colts, like the fact that and the Seahawks.

1:10:42Well, sure, the Seahawks. But the fact that so much of it involves the Indianapolis Colts, of course, like letting Sam Darnall walk and he looks amazing. We can talk about we could do a whole show on that. But the fact that Daniel Jones was in your building and he is the story of the year right now. And then Will Fries and Ryan Kelly show up. And that was one of our reservations with the Colts. I remember saying like, is this a good idea? But I trust the Colts ultimately because they deserve that benefit of the doubt, particularly with their offensive line. To have the Colts be right about those two guys leaving, right to be interested in bringing in Daniel Jones, and right in giving Cam Bynum a bunch of money while the Vikings defense is suffering, that's tough.

1:11:23That's tough to watch another team benefit from the opposite side of all of your decisions, basically. I remember Derek and I had a conversation I think it was after the playoff game where the Vikings lost to the Rams and we were talking about what the Vikings should do at quarterback and I was steadfast in my belief that you had a multi-year plan for how you were going to do this you were going to get out of a rookie quarterback timeline and it was going to allow you to beef up with the other areas of your roster that still needed tending to right this was not a team that only had to figure out the quarterback there were weaknesses with this group The interior of the offensive line was a defined weakness.

1:12:00We saw that by the end of last season. The defense, I think the four-man pass rush specifically, that is an area where it's like, we need to be better here. The interior of this group does not affect the game in the way that we need them to. And they came into the offseason because of the rookie quarterback contract with money to spend in free agency for the first time in forever. And what I saw with the Sam Darnold path was, we're really going to get back into a place where we're going to pay a quarterback$35 million a year, and then we're going to have to build and plan around that contract when we finally have a chance to not go that route and to let the infrastructure that has lifted multiple different quarterbacks lift the next one.

1:12:38And so when you think about that in a vacuum, when you're just moving the money around and kind of seeing this as a theoretical exercise, I completely understood it because that's what they wanted to do and that's what they're going to be able to do for the first time. And Derek, to his credit, was sitting there and he was like, I kind of, I get that. but at the same time, you know this guy works. You know that this guy is good. And the tragedy in this is they got neither. That's the thing that is most sad about this is because they had all this money to spend and these areas of the roster that they were supposed to be able to build up, the resources they were supposed to be able to use to make this the best non-quarterback roster in the NFL, they were not able to do that.

1:13:18And so now we've gotten to a point where that's kind of what I said at the beginning. No matter what happens with J.J. McCarthy, The other side of this bargain that you were trying to enter into, if you were crazy and you were the Vikings front office, that has not come to be. And we can say that, I think, Derek, before even knowing what's going to happen with the quarterback. Yeah, like this to me was, I think with the Sam Darnold and JJ McCarthy thing, like I got it too from the from the perspective of we just drafted this guy. We're going to save a bunch of money by paying him, you know, whatever the rookie contract deal is over whatever we would have to pay Sam Darnold, even though Sam Darnold didn't even really end up making that much money relative to what the top end of the quarterback market makes.

1:13:56And so I understood all of that, like they'd already said all these things in motion. But to me, it was just like and I want to be clear, I did not think that Sam Darnold was going to play like a top five quarterback this year in terms of production. Like I didn't even think that highly of him. But he wouldn't have even needed to to justify the choice. Exactly. Exactly. Like we already had proof of concept that you could be an above average, like average to above average offense with him. And so if you made one or two other tweaks, like maybe they still bring in one of those offensive linemen and fix some stuff, then maybe we can start getting inside of the top 10.

1:14:26And if our defense stays relatively the same, like there was just it felt like the proof of concept to me, I was a little bit more willing to buy in, even if I didn't think Darnold was, you know, going to be a savior for them or whatever. I just it felt to me it was like you found what you wanted in drafting a quarterback, which is a guy that can give us like borderline top 10 offense. And they had dared to got there. And so I wanted to at least leave the door open to paying Sam Darnold. I think what Dave was talking about earlier with the Colts thing and all those players is interesting, too, because I think it speaks to like some of the things the Vikings did make sense and some of them didn't like letting Daniel Jones go.

1:15:01He was Daniel Jones. Like that's there's nothing wrong with that. And like even trying to bring in some of the offensive linemen with the Will Fries and in the Ryan Kelly, even if there were injury concerns there, it made sense. On the flip side to me, and I said this at the time, letting Cam Bynum out of the door when he was your best guy in the back seven just didn't make a whole lot of sense to me. And I think you felt what he's not, you know, his absence in that defense. You've really felt that. And so it's like this combination of things that made sense for them, understanding they had to go with this plan in motion on top of a couple other mistakes.

1:15:32You add that on top of one or two injuries. And that's how this whole plan that you were supposed to have just kind of falls apart right in front of you. so here's we we talked about this in the pre-production meeting and i'm still trying to figure out how i feel about it because clearly this has been a disaster for the vikings but like in trying to to look back at it i'm trying to identify what i would have done differently because like it's easy i think it's pretty to me it's pretty clear well what's your answer i think the offensive line stuff is fine right the offensive line has been bad for the vikings in part because the tackles have been hurt.

1:16:06Everybody's been hurt. The Ryan Kelly part of this, you can imagine this happening. Ryan Kelly has had injury issues and concussion issues for the last couple of years. Like Ryan Kelly missing all this time, that's fine. Like I think that there is downside to that move. But even if Ryan Kelly was the only member of the offensive line that was hurt this year, the Vikings would probably be okay if Christian Deresaw was playing well and Christian Deresaw was healthy and Brian O 'Neill was in the lineup. That part of it, I don't think there's any sort of projection that you can do outside of the Ryan Kelly aspect.

1:16:33That's just bad luck. I will say, in real time even, when Derek and I were talking about, okay, now you have this big pile of money, is two 30-year-old defensive tackles the best use of this big pile of money? I think there were legitimate questions about that at the time, and I think those questions are worth having. Because the defense, well, banged up, right? Andrew Van Ginkle's been hurt, Blake Hashman's missed a little bit of time. That's not enough to explain away the fact that this defense is 19th in defensive DVOA. This was supposed to be one of the best defenses in the league, considering their track record and the investments you put into it.

1:17:09And that has just not come to be for this team. That is the number one thing. Even sorry if I sound insane, even more than letting Sam Darnold leave. The defensive tackles are what I take the most issue with, because that is a ton of money on guys that you probably could have guessed didn't have a good shot to live up to that. I mean, this is Javon Hargrave's fourth contract. Jonathan Allen, it's his third contract. And third contract 30-year-old players are typically dicey propositions in free agency always. They haven't even been terrible for Minnesota. They just haven't been as good as that money dictates that they need to be.

1:17:43And it's exacerbated by the fact that a guy who was in the UFL a couple years ago, Jalen Redmond, is the best defensive tackle on this team. He has 21 pressures. Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen have like 15 each. Yeah. So that is the one thing that I would do over again. But what do you do instead with that money? You could have paid Sam Darnold. You could have paid Sam Darnold. The money is the same. That's what's so crazy about this is like a theoretical exercise. This year, if they had just given Sam Darnold, the Vikings, the exact same contract that the Seahawks gave him, he has a$13.4 million cap hit this year and a$34.6 million cap hit next year.

1:18:22Combined against the cap over the next two years, Jonathan Allen and Javon Argrave are making$14 million this year and will make$43 million next year. So you could have just kept Harrison Phillips, signed Sam Darnold, done the same things you did with the offensive line, and maybe if it's close, you restructure one of the contracts that are already on the books, and where would the Vikings be if that was the current construction? I don't know. I'm asking you this earnestly and not in a way to win an argument. If that's what you're doing, are you just, you're just reconciling that JJ's DOA. Yes.

1:18:57Like that decision didn't pay off. And the top 10 draft pick is just going to be on like, he's not going to have a real shot to take the starting quarterback job. Yeah. And I, again, I wasn't willing to come to terms with that in real time because I was at the same thought. I was like, how could you do that? But things change. Like you have to be willing to acknowledge the right move in the moment based on how things have shifted and how things are going. Like I wouldn't have done that. I would have done exactly what they did. But I think if you look back on it, that probably was a mistake because you shouldn't play it out theoretically.

1:19:30You should. Like, you know what you already have. And I also think there's a part of this that we're obsessed with this financial flexibility that comes with the rookie quarterback contract. Free agency classes are dog shit every single year now. Like, what are you really spending that money on when you know there's already a quarterback in your building that you can actually play with? And again, Derek said this, and I wasn't willing to admit it because I couldn't come to terms with the idea that this guy you drafted in the top 10 that you would spend the entire offseason maneuvering to get just wasn't going to be in your plans anymore.

1:20:02Which it's fine if you don't come to terms with it. I think NFL decision makers would have a hard time coming to terms with that. Here are. Can I at least offer you a happy medium? And Sam Darnold is playing amazing. Yeah, that's probably what you should do. Why didn't the Vikings at least try harder to create competition for J.J. McCarthy? And clearly, nobody in the world saw Daniel. I think they did. I think they tried to get Daniel Jones in the building. Then they didn't try hard enough, in my opinion. But at what point is Daniel Jones making$14 million this year? If the Vikings had given Daniel Jones a one-year$17 million contract when they already had J.J.

1:20:41McCarthy in the building, we would have clowned them for it. We clowned people for a lot of shit that we're wrong about. Like between between the money that you can offer him and then and obviously I'm not privy to the conversations that they that took place. But the like the reports at the time were that the Vikings couldn't like truly guarantee Daniel Jones a shot at the starting job. Like he felt like it would be more of a competition in Indianapolis. Give him that assurance that like, hey, we start camp on July 28th. If you're the better quarterback by August 30th, it's your job. and maybe that way you can navigate this without committing a$100 million contract to a quarterback.

1:21:21Or maybe you just do that, but I'll be honest with you, I think that is a tough sell to the people that actually sit in those chairs who have to explain this type of shit to ownership. And I think that the Daniel Jones thing to me is kind of a different conversation because that's still a question mark, right? We don't know how that would have worked out. We already knew how the Sam Darnold thing was working out. And so I think that's why that feels like a more viable choice even in the moment than Daniel Jones would have been. I think my biggest issue with all of the not having other quarterbacks be in the in the market, because I agree with Dave, like you should have had better competition for J.J.

1:21:55McCarthy. My thing with it, and I think maybe part of the reason that they were hesitant to either give Daniel Jones more money or whatever it was, I just to me, it felt like they were a little bit protecting their plan and protecting the optics of things rather than trying to figure out, like, who can play the position for us? Like that's the thing that matters. Who can go out and run the plays? And I just think that they like tried to value the other aspects of whatever the quarterback can bring you than just who is the best guy. This is the argument I made in the moment. And this is the argument I will continue to make.

1:22:27I think when it's when there's two unknowns, I would rather have the free unknown. Like that's what J.J. McCarthy was like. I'd rather have the guy I'm paying absolutely nothing. And we've committed. If you're not paying Darnold, you're still kind of and you're giving Daniel Jones a one year contract. I think you're still at a place where two years from now, J.J. McCarthy is still probably gonna need to play for you. And so him having the experience of playing this year for the two-year outlook on the plan is probably more valuable. And so that's why the Daniel Jones part of this to me is kind of just a different conversation because it's still kind of a lingering unknown.

1:23:01The last thing I wanna say about this, and I wanna be very clear about this, this is not me like criticizing the Vikings in retrospect. I think this is more of a commentary on what has happened since and maybe what we could have known at the time as we look back on it. I could not in good faith pretend that I didn't think this was the right idea at the time. I think we just haven't really had this conversation about how it has played out since. And I think I'm already willing to have that conversation even before we know how good J.J. McCarthy is because the other elements of this have not come together.

1:23:34I think that's completely fair. And like I said, I mean, some of this stuff, it feels like Monday morning quarterbacking where you're just like, how could they have possibly known that? But there are several decisions where it is fair to say, ah, yeah, that could have been done better at the time. Watch JJ go for like 304 touchdowns on Sunday. And what I'll say about this is it doesn't matter because the defense and the way that they spent the money and some of the other elements of this have still not come together in the way we thought they were going to. If JJ actually does that, it matters.

1:24:05It matters for the Vikings, but it doesn't matter for the conversation we just had. Sure. That's what I'm saying. Yeah. All right. Let's talk about what we want to know coming out of week nine in the NFL. Why don't you kick us off, buddy? Who are the San Francisco 49ers? And what should we expect of them the rest of the way? We know, we know the story with the, with how banged up they are, what they don't have. They certainly seem to be proactive about fixing it. They traded for Keon White during the week. Cleland Farrell is back in the Niners building, which is exciting for me. but they started 3-0 they won their third game on a day where they lost Nick Bosa for the season and ever since then they've just been trading wins and losses they had an inspired effort to beat Atlanta they looked like a team that didn't have enough talent against Houston and so if you're following the trajectory they've been going loss-win, loss-win well now they're due for a win as long as you're treading water in this version of the Niners that Brock Purdy's status is still in doubt.

1:25:08Ricky Pearsall's not practicing. Bryce Huff and Yitor Grossmatos are not practicing at the start of this week. It's crazy. The fact that we're even talking about them as like load-bearing pieces of the pass rush is wild. Yitor Grossmatos has been like legitimately really good this year. That's what I'm saying. We still don't know when Brandon Ayuk's practice window is going to open. So like, it is completely reasonable, in my opinion, to hold on to the hope of the Niners being a far better and far more like dynamic team in the later weeks of the season than they are right now. But A, when the hell is that going to happen?

1:25:43Because like Shanahan was even asked about it this week, where it was like, well, you didn't put these guys on IR, but it's been four weeks and they're not back. What's the deal? And he was like, yeah, we were hoping they'd come back faster and we were wrong. Like, I appreciate your honesty, but that does not make me feel better about the current version of the 49ers. This game, they're at the Giants. They are favored at the Giants, which is interesting to me, A, between their injuries, but also it's a 10 a.m. kickoff for a team from San Francisco. This is a game that I think you kind of need to win.

1:26:15You've got to keep that mode of trading wins and losses because if you lose this game, you're 5-4 with the Rams on deck. Now we're talking about losing that cushion. Whereas if you can just find a way to win these types of games, then maybe you're working with something when you finally get some of these guys back and you can be a way different team than what we've been watching. I will say the state of the NFC wildcard race also plays into their favor because there really isn't an NFC wildcard race right now. Like there aren't many teams behind them, like chasing at their heels for that last wildcard spot.

1:26:49And so even if they're sitting in five and four, are you really scared of like this version of the Bears or the Panthers? Like those are the other teams in the conversation here. so they might have a little bit of breathing room and a little bit of time to figure all that shit out it's easy to say that until like i'll just and i know the bears go on their run hey i know they beat the rams a month ago i know that happened but like i would pick the rams to beat them in a couple weeks no questions asked the way both of these teams are currently situated so i just it all sounds well and good until you drop a couple of games in a row and all of a sudden and you're in a fight when you didn't think you would be.

1:27:27And I still think the Niners are good enough to win this game, and I think they should. Mine is very similar in terms of the what-are-you type thing. What are the post-by Jaguars, right? This is a team that's in the mix in the AFCU playoff race. We didn't even mention them in picking out who the best team in that race was. And you're post-by, you're one of a new regime. I think that is a stretch in a moment worth inspecting. right like what are you coming out of a mid-season by with a first year coaching staff I'm just curious what the answer to that is to hopefully look pretty darn good against the Raiders this week but I think this is kind of a multi-week thing and like what can we reasonably expect from the Jacksonville Jaguars in the second half of this season with a year one coaching staff they you know you've got to I think in a moment like this see if Liam Cohen and that rest of that coaching staff can be like a settling force for what this team is supposed to be because we've obviously seen one of the key themes that you'll get from all of the top teams or teams that can consistently be good in this league are the ones that are insanely good out of their buys or at least start to figure something new out about themselves post buy and we just don't have an answer on that yet with what the Jaguars are Derek what do you got for me buddy I so I'm thinking a little bit about the trade deadline we've got our trade deadline show coming up and to me the team that is most interesting in terms of one, I expect them to do something because they keep saying that they're going to do something.

1:28:53And also, too, I think just might be fun if they do kind of do something is the Dallas Cowboys. They get the Arizona Cardinals this week on Monday night. So we're not going to know Sunday how they feel about themselves and where they should be. But if they win that game, they will be back in a pretty decent spot. They'll be back at, I think, four, four and one. If they win that game, they'll be in a pretty decent spot to try to stay competitive in the nfc wildcard race they have said a million times that they want to trade for somebody probably a pass rusher and so i'm just you know if they win this game how close do they think they are and like does does the margin of victory like change who they go for like if they win by three and are like ah we're not that close maybe we'll just try to see if we can get another guy in here but if they win by like 17 and they're like oh we're actually kind of close we can go get a trey hendrickson like i just i'm just curious to see how they approach it it would be hilarious if the Cowboys traded a bunch of shit for a pass rusher.

1:29:41It would just be absolutely hilarious. It's the mystery box thing. Like somebody's out in real time. Somebody's definition of hilarious. All right. That is all we've got for the week nine preview. Sincerely appreciate all you guys tuning in. It's a fun slate. Really excited to dig into this one this week. We'll have the Ravens and the Dolphins kicking it off on Thursday night. That recap will be available for you guys right now on our YouTube channel. I encourage you to check out the YouTube channel if you have not. We've got a ton of video-specific content coming your guys' way this year that we have never done before.

1:30:12The recap shows, we have a bunch of graphics this year. We've got highlights packages. And so if you want to come hang out with us live on Sunday night, really does have a different feel than anything we've ever done in that space before this season. So this is the time to check out the YouTube channel. If you have not, like Derek just alluded to, we have the Trade Deadline Show coming your guys' way on YouTube on Tuesday. What time is that, Beller? that will start at 3 30 eastern time half an hour before the deadline we'll take it to about half an hour after the deadline so hopefully we get something right around the deadline to uh to break down looking forward to that encourage you guys to come check that out for now that's all we got appreciate you listening we'll talk to you very soon