Week 9 Preview: Will Packers or Patriots establish themselves as a contender?

0:00Derrik Klassen: This message is brought to you by Cologuard. If you recorded songs off the radio for a mixtape, it might be time to screen for colon cancer.

0:07Dave Helman: The Cologuard test is non-invasive, requires no special prep or time off, and you start screening right from your home. It's just three simple steps. Set up, sample, and ship. If you're 45 or older and at average risk, ask your doctor about the Cologuard test. Available by prescription only. Learn more or request a prescription at Cologuard.com slash podcast. Verizon knows that holiday math can be complicated.

0:33Derrik Klassen: Okay, let's see. We got the four kids, four gifts each, six teacher gifts. Wait, oh, what did we get in? Sandy and the dogs. Oh, I can't forget the dogs.

0:43Robert Mays: Know what doesn't need math? Simplicity plan from Verizon. One plan, one price. Just$30 a line per month for you or the whole family. The holidays are complicated. Shopping our best deals and switching to Verizon is simple. For new customers,$30 per line includes auto pay and switch discount. Additional taxes, fees, and terms apply.

1:02Dave Helman: This episode is brought to you by Apollo.io. So many of the challenges teams face in business come down to the exact same issue. People have plenty of powerful tools, but the actual work ends up scattered across all of them. Sales is the perfect example. Prospecting lives in one program, outreach happens in another, and all that wasted time toggling between tabs is time not spent selling. That's exactly where Apollo.io comes in. It's a unified platform designed to help sales teams find the right buyers and connect with them seamlessly. It brings your prospecting, outreach, and follow-up into one centralized place instead of forcing you to jump between separate tools.

1:42Dave Helman: It's used by sales teams of every size, from growing small businesses to massive organizations. It's built specifically for teams who want to spend less time on manual, scattered busy work and spend more of their day building real relationships with buyers. If you want to streamline your workflow and keep your prospecting and outreach in one place, it is definitely worth a look. Sign up for free at Apollo.io. That's Apollo.io.

2:11Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show, brought to you by the U.S. Bank Smartly Visa Signature Card. I'm Robert Mays. Week 9 is here. A lot of good ones in Week 9. Patriots, Packers game of the week. Hit one thing from five other games with me, Dave, and Derek in studio. breaking down all things week nine. Let's get to it right now.

2:39Robert Mays: It's the week nine preview. Derek is back.

2:43Derrik Klassen: Hello, hello. Very excited to have him. In person. Mm-hmm. Not like the Zordon Derek zoomed in head on the TV screen.

2:52Robert Mays: Did we talk about whether you know what Zordon is when we've used that reference before? Okay. Yeah, I'm tapped into that one.

2:58Dave Helman: I do, like, watch a ton of Power Rangers, but, like, I'm familiar.

3:01Robert Mays: My sixth birthday was Power Rangers themed. Hell yeah. Yeah, it's big time. We never had, my mom always made the costumes, though. I never got to, like, buy a fancy, we had homemade Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles costumes for Halloween. That rocks, actually. My sixth birthday was, I mean, they weren't well made. My mom is great, but she's not a crafter.

3:19Derrik Klassen: I'm just, I'm coping with the thought of you being a regular six-year-old dressed like Power Rangers and not like having a nice Chelsea boot and like a cool sweater at the age of six. Like, I know that's the way that it was, but.

3:31Robert Mays: I will tell you this, even if the sartorial choices are different, I still was like a nervous Bears fan at age six. So there are plenty of parallels back to that time, even if some stuff has changed. Fun slate for this week. Several games we're going to hit one thing from, We're going to start with the game of the week. The Packers and Patriots playing in the late window on Sunday. Tom Brady's return to New England, which Fox has done a wonderful job. I've reminded me of 25 different times over the last week or so. But this is a very good game between two, let's call them surging teams, right?

4:07Robert Mays: Compared to what they looked like over the first couple weeks of the season. I would say the two best teams that aren't at the table right now.

4:13Derrik Klassen: I'll say Pittsburgh.

4:15Robert Mays: Yeah, Pittsburgh. Yes, that's a good one. That's a good one. Yes.

4:17Derrik Klassen: But if I was going to power rank the three, I would I'd have New England and Green Bay ahead of Pittsburgh right now.

4:23Dave Helman: If you're going to break ties, do it with the two quarterbacks who have like MVP potential and whatever Aaron Rodgers is at this point, which is improved from last year, but still not of the caliber.

4:31Derrik Klassen: It is really funny, though, because like you want to have a great offensive line and like the Steelers offensive line is so enviable, but it's hard not to default to the quarterbacks.

4:41Robert Mays: Yeah, we'll get into the Packers offensive line here as we move through this. We're going to hit three things from this game. Dave, why don't you kick us off? The one thing you are watching in Packers Patriots is what?

4:50Derrik Klassen: So I said in our production meeting, I'm hoping this game amounts to a horse contest between the two quarterbacks of just like, all right, let's go behind the backboard. Let's do one from half court. Let's do the reverse layup with our non-dominant hand. That's what I think it's going to look like. And I'll take the Drake May side of this because y 'all are going to mention Jordan Love, but it's worth saying into a microphone that since week four, Drake May is back to looking like an MVP candidate. And, I mean, we took the Patriots off the table. We had a whole conversation about how lost Drake May looked.

5:24Derrik Klassen: Remember Mike Vrabel, like, consoling him on the sideline of the Jags game? Like, it's not your fault. They lost 35-6. Yeah.

5:31Robert Mays: It was Jacksonville Jaguars. Like, that is the thing that happened. We don't have to pretend that it didn't.

5:35Derrik Klassen: No, absolutely. But since week four, Drake May leads the league in EPA per dropback. He's third in the league in air yards per attempt. He's throwing to the sticks 46 % of the time. which leads the league he has two turnover worthy plays since week four in week uh weeks one through three he had nine so he is second in the league and turnover worthy plays least amount of turnover

5:58Robert Mays: worthy plays in that stretch even that ratio in weeks one in weeks one and two every single turnover where they play turned into a turnover seemingly that's still not that high of a number

6:07Derrik Klassen: and like several of them in the end zone with scoring opportunities well he's dialed down on that a lot the only guy with fewer turnover worthy plays at this point in the season is caleb williams who has played fewer games obviously than drake may has and also just

6:21Robert Mays: is a has a historically low interception rate i was looking at yeah even before this year by the way yeah i mean he has right now if you if it's minimum a thousand dropbacks he has the lowest

6:30Derrik Klassen: interception rate nfl history so i think it's also fair to say since week three i mean so they beat the Bills, which it's a feather in the cap win that I think kind of gets glossed over a little bit, honestly. The Bills defense is still struggling this year. Like, that is not... It's not the best defense Drake May is going to play. And on top of that, after that game, you get Raiders, you get Jets, you get Dolphins last week. They did play the Bears. Ironically, the one turnover-worthy play was the interception. He, again, threw in the end zone in that game against Chicago. So I do feel like the Packers are going to be probably the best test he's had over that stretch.

7:13Robert Mays: I think undeniably. I mean, since the Jags game, the only non bottom eight defense they've played by DVOA is the bears. And even at that point, the bears defense was effective. You look at the numbers, but it was still kind of all over the place. It was just a, it's a strange unit. Like pre Jeffrey Simmons. I think we, we'll look back at that stretch of the season, like the first eight weeks. It's just a strange type of defense. The Packers have been a top five defense. And by every single metric over the course of the year so far,

7:38Derrik Klassen: I guess I said probably because we've had so many conversations about the Bears having the best third down defense in the NFL. And up until they got Jeff Simmons, I was like, yeah, but that's bullshit. That's not real. And now it might be real, but they didn't have Jeff Simmons back then.

7:51Robert Mays: Yeah, the Packers. I mean, the Bears defense has been a top half of the league defense, but the Packers have been one of the best defenses in the league by every single metric so far. So I think it's undeniable. This is the best test they will have faced since they played the Jags. Definitely.

8:02Dave Helman: And the Bears defense are like, yeah, before Simmons were such a specific defense. that if you just kind of come out with the right game plan, and I think for the most part, like the Patriots did in that game, you can have a pretty good game against them, whereas I think the Packers, they're a little bit more complete players at all three levels. Like, this is, I think, a really interesting test.

8:18Robert Mays: The Packers are a fantastic zone coverage defense. Like, the back end for the Packers this year has been absolutely excellent. And watching, it's funny, so two weeks in a row, the Patriots will play defenses that have at least some similar shared DNA. Obviously, the defensive staff is new for the Packers this year, but Jeff Hathaway was there last year. And if you look at some of the coverage rotation numbers, the Packers this year, per Sumer Sports, are fourth in the NFL in safety rotation before the snap. It's on like 38 percent of snaps. The Dolphins are right there. And a lot of those other teams that are above them, teams like the Seahawks, teams like the Raiders, there are a lot of teams that will start in two high shells and rotate to single high.

9:00Robert Mays: the Packers which I think some of this is likely influenced by Bobby Babich now being there their back end rotation stuff looks very similar to a lot of things the Bills have been doing over the last few years there's a lot of like one high two high there's a lot of changing pictures on the back end and last week against the Dolphins who also do a decent amount of that stuff the Patriots offense struggled might be a stretch but they didn't have the easiest time in the first half

9:22Dave Helman: they were not good for most of the first half and then some of that was like I know it was the conditions and stuff like that but I thought Miami did do a really good job of like getting on top of their stuff you could tell that drake may wasn't like forcing the ball into into bad areas but he was not as aggressive as he typically would be and i think that was part of because some of the rotations that they were running they came out in the second half they knew more what they were getting and they played well but that's against the miami dolphins defense that is not any good i expect the packers defense to play a better 60 minutes and i think the dolphins similar ideas much

9:50Derrik Klassen: better players for the green bay packers so therein lies the crux of this whole thing because not only has drake may been playing really well he i mean he's fearless that is what's so intoxicating about watching him play he's completing 68 of balls thrown 10 or more air yards he's completing 50 uh 60 of his throws of 20 plus air yards for 392 yards seven touchdowns no interceptions he's tied with joe burrow for the most deep ball touchdowns he leads the league in completions of 20 plus air yards he's going to be looking for those sorts of throws and for everything y 'all just mentioned i think the packers are up to challenging that like this is a really fun secondary and it like on top of the fun stuff jonathan gannon's doing with the amount of too high that he does and what evan williams and xavier mckinney allow you to do as far as disguising things they're also all just playing at a really high level and i thought about the division preview derek i'm not calling you out because i agreed with you going into the year it was like ah the

10:49Dave Helman: corners though yeah corners because Nixon was not good last year and the other guy was going to be like maybe Brandon Cissé at the time it wasn't even supposed to be Brandon Cissé coming into

10:57Derrik Klassen: the year at the time of recording Brandon Cissé has been named NFL rookie of the month I believe not even just NFC but NFL and Keyshawn Nixon's been awesome he's the most targeted cornerback in the NFL so far this year they've he's been targeted 53 times he's giving up an average of six and a half yards per target he hasn't given up a touchdown yet this year he's been fantastic And obviously Cissé is just out to a thrilling start to his career. And so you combine that with what we already knew about the safeties. And I mean, Evan Williams, I knew going in that he was a good player, but I think he's been even better than that.

11:32Derrik Klassen: Like this is just, it's an incredibly fun secondary. They have four interceptions on tight window throws this year. Drake May loves to try that type of stuff. I just think Drake May is going to be trying some keyhole shots in this game. And I can't wait to see who gets the better of those situations.

11:48Robert Mays: I will be curious to see if Michael Parsons plays. Sure. Because even if that's worth mentioning. And even if he doesn't play, I think that the Packers front this year has been better than any front four that the Patriots have played recently. When they played against the Bears, Montez Sweat and Dio Degma didn't play. And so if those blitzes weren't getting to Drake May, and he was doing a fantastic job of extending plays in that game, the pass rushes that they have played against recently, again, these are bottom eight defenses for the most part. And so if there are plays where he does have to hang onto it for one beat longer in the pocket, because of some of the funky stuff they're doing on the back end, are the Packers in a position to get him on the ground or speed him up in a way that some of these other defenses have not been.

12:27Robert Mays: And obviously, Micah Parsons contributes to that a lot.

12:30Derrik Klassen: I'm glad you mentioned that. Drake May also leads the league in first downs picked up with his feet.

12:35Robert Mays: The play extension plus the scrambling is really truly what takes him to a completely different level. And even some of the throws downfield, the Raiders game is a game where he had tons of time in the pocket. but there are other games where his ability to extend as a passer and allow things to develop down the field and just have some of these like second reaction plays is what makes him truly

12:56Derrik Klassen: terrifying to play against i do want to mention it was buried in my notes i should have said it right off the jump i think it's worth saying typically when a quarterback is playing like shit and then immediately starts playing like an mvp i'm like okay well what clicked who came back from injury what happened here it's arguably gotten worse i think it's on tonight they lost everybody saying arguably to cover his top receiver now is like efton chisholm and the

13:21Dave Helman: offensive line yeah they're on guard like five or whatever their interior is beat to shit it was

13:26Derrik Klassen: beat to shit in that bears game they had like they had to get caleb lomu into the lineup for a couple of weeks i think the tackles are fine now but the offensive line has been in flux aj brown that unfortunately is looking like my biggest whiff of the preseason he's i mean he's just barely been available this year i don't think he's going to be available for this game romeo doves is on injured reserve the big like the coup for the pats right now is that mac hollands might be back for this game and that that feels like a big deal though considering what drake may has been working

13:56Robert Mays: speaks to the state of affairs yeah all right let's get to the other side of the ball in this game the one thing that i was i'm watching in this game and has just been a point of interest of me with the Packers all season is that their offensive line talent has obviously been a concern. I do think things are getting better because it's starting to crystallize a little bit, like what that group looks like. Obviously, they've had a third-string center in there for the last couple games. But the fact that now Laken Tomlinson is part of this, they've settled into what Aaron Banks is back. It does feel a little bit more solidified than it did early in the year, but still on a talent level.

14:29Robert Mays: Your backup right tackle is in the game. This is not a good group talent-wise for the Packers up front. But they are such a good, their ability to mitigate that for multiple different reasons has been really notable. And I think it becomes even more notable against a Packers, against a Patriots team that's going to bring a decent amount of pressure. Like this is a team that flirts with 50 % blitz rates all the time. And Jordan Love has gotten blitz, I think at like a top eight rate so far of any quarterback in the league this year. But when you watch the Packers, even if the offensive line talent isn't very good, they are a very well-coached pass protection group.

15:06Robert Mays: The guys are always going to the right spots. The communication is very good. I understand why there are frustrations with Matt LaFleur on game day as both a head coach and a play caller. I get that stuff. What happens in that building from Monday to Saturday is very impressive. They are clearly so well-coached, and you see that in pass protection more than anywhere else, where, again, even if the players aren't very good, it all feels very buttoned up. And then the quarterback does an exceptional job of further mitigating whatever issues might be happening. This, this stat was wild to me. So Jordan Love this year per next gen has an 11.4 % pressure to sack ratio.

15:47Robert Mays: That is the fifth best mark in the entire league. The guys ahead of him, here are their, here are the numbers of quick pressures those players have seen this year. Kirk Cousins, 39, Dak, 44, Mahomes, 35, Purdy, 27. Those are the four quarterbacks with a better pressure-to-sack ratio than Jordan Love. The Packers have seen 70 quick pressures this year. My gosh. 7-0. So we're talking about no other guy in the top five has seen 63 % as many quick pressures as Jordan Love has. when you watch him play a combination of understanding when he's the one that has to beat blitzers and when he's the one that has to be pressure with his arm and the subtle pocket movement like his ability to slide and hop and still get some of these throws off incredibly accurately he is playing at such a such just a ridiculously high level so the fact that this team cannot run the football, has an offensive line that still has backup level players all over the place, and is pushing the ball downfield pretty consistently, and isn't collapsing in on itself, is a product of how well coached they are in pass protection and the quarterback's ability to make a lot of this stuff not matter as much as it should.

17:07Robert Mays: It's pretty wild.

17:07Dave Helman: I think because of the reputation of Matt LaFleur, which is obviously like well-deserved, he's an incredible coach, I think Jordan Lumpf doesn't get enough credit for the how high the like how high he brings the floor of the offense for some of the stuff that he's doing because like one I think he sees all the blitz stuff really really well he because of how explosive his arm is and how flexible he is as a mover on top of the subtle pocket movement stuff you're saying he can just get to spots and make throws from anywhere that is like really impressive like the one that he hit in the Lions game it was the middle of the second quarter it's a third and nine they get a free runner off the right side and he just like as he's hitting his back foot is like falling back with it and just rips a seam bender.

17:46Dave Helman: I'm like, who the hell else is even trying that consistently? And he does it like eight times a game. And then even in quick game, we think of him as this like, oh my God, he just wants to chuck it down the field all the time quarterback. And like in his heart of hearts, he is. But when they do the quick game stuff, how fast the ball comes out, it really looks a lot to me like the way the Mahomes operates in the read offense, where like as soon as his back foot is hitting, ball's out and it's always the right spot. He's explosive and he's allowing yards after catch to happen. And like how high he brings the floor of this offense, I think, is even different from earlier in his career.

18:17Dave Helman: Because early in his career, that wasn't the case. He was just kind of a cannon for down the field. Now I think he really has like full command of this thing.

18:24Robert Mays: Well, now he can't be because of what the offense is constructed like. And you mentioned Mahomes. The Packers, I think we picture the Packers as this team where it's a lot of under center, heavy run game, play action off of it. Because there were a lot of years where they were that. It started drifting away from that last season and then has fully pivoted away from that this season. They are bottom four and under center rate this year, the Green Bay Packers are. So they're asking Jordan Love to carry as much of a burden within the offense as Mahomes has had to do at points in his career, as Joe Burrow has had to do with the construction of that offense.

18:56Robert Mays: And I would argue that there's even more on his plate because when you look back at Mahomes for the last couple of years, the Bengals, it's been a little bit more up and down. but like the back half of last season, that's a plus success rate rushing game. It's like top five for the Bengals. The Chiefs were a high success rate running game every single year, essentially, even if they weren't explosive. They were able to run the ball when they needed to in order to sustain drives. The Packers cannot run the football. They have a 30 % rushing success rate per next gen. So you're asking the quarterback to sit back there and be everything for the entire offense from the gun throughout these entire games.

19:34Robert Mays: He's he's the reason you're explosive. He's the reason you sustain drives like what Jordan Love is having to carry within the offense right now because of how it's constructed and the lack of help is as much as any quarterback in the NFL.

19:46Derrik Klassen: And for all the fears about what it might look like the bad way. I mean, it looked that way against Atlanta, but that's about it.

19:53Robert Mays: You know, like he's eighth in he paper drop back since that game week after week. It shouldn't be possible with like no help. Zero. I mean, the receivers are good. I just mean like it.

20:01Dave Helman: Yes. In terms of the run game and the offensive line, I guess that's a better way to phrase it. It's not that he doesn't have help, but the floor for this offense should be in the ground, and it's not.

20:12Derrik Klassen: It's not the point. It is not the point. Jordan loves incredible, but when you were talking, I was like, man, I wonder what Mahomes would look like with Christian Watson. Oh, my God. It certainly helps Matthew Colton.

20:22Robert Mays: The offense in terms of environment that this reminds me of the most currently right now is the New Orleans Saints.

20:28Dave Helman: Yeah, in terms of what they are asking the quarterback to do. And this is like if that offense passing offense, this is like if that offense had a quarterback who could do everything and an offensive line that was the pass protection plan was better because the Saints offensive line obviously isn't very good either. But neither is the Green Bay Packers and they're finding ways to get away with it because of what they can ask the quarterback.

20:47Derrik Klassen: That goes back to my point from the jump. The Patriots run game is definitely better than the Packers. Don't get me wrong, but like their 18th in rushing success rate. It's not good. It's not good. I think they have they have 10 explosive runs that aren't Drake May. So these are not good run games, and I just think Drake May and Jordan Love are just going to have a throw-off.

21:06Robert Mays: Drake May is on the short list of that conversation as well, in terms of what the quarterback is being asked to do lifting his offense. But I just think having a 30 % rushing success rate offense and truly having the passing game have to replicate everything else that you're doing, I think that more is being put on him than just about any quarterback in the league right now. And there's a volatility to it because of the way he plays and the way he has to play. Because you're asking so much.

21:28Dave Helman: When you have that much burden on any part of your team, whether, you know, just whatever it is, like you're going to get negative plays. I want to think I want to talk about today's point. I do think this will be a horse matchup because Jordan Love right now has thrown 14 more passes beyond 20 yards than any other quarterback in the NFL. He's thrown 46. The other guy who is in second is Drake May. Like these two teams are going to chuck it. I do want to talk about the Packers specifically though, because the Patriots defense has only seen 19 passes of 20 plus yards, which is like that is. See, it's interesting because I want to say the corners, but the corners have been in and out of the lineup, which I will talk about in a minute.

22:06Dave Helman: Maybe it's because they play a little bit more main coverage in some of these instances than teams want. Maybe that's part of it. I think that's what it is. They heat teams up so much that the ball has to come out. It's the same reason I think that like, which is always a push and pull too, because like some teams will decide, well, if they're going to heat us up, we're just going to chuck it. But I think a lot of teams are scared to do that or just don't have the quarterback talent to do that. Yeah, I think there are fewer examples of that.

22:27Robert Mays: than around the league than teams being like, we just have to get the ball out.

22:29Dave Helman: Yes, the Packers will do that. The Packers will chuck it, but a lot of teams are just like, we're going to get the ball out, we're going to run the ball, we're not going to do it. And so the Patriots just haven't seen it a lot. And the thing I really wanted to add in this game, first of all, that's not going to deter Jordan Love. The Packers are going to chuck the ball down the field. It's just interesting the Patriots haven't been tested there. But when you look at a lot of the completions that have happened to them down the field, the Bills got two. One of them was on like a Josh Allen scramble, so it's like not even really like an instructor deep play.

22:54Dave Helman: One was against Charles Woods, who was like their fourth corner, basically. The Jets got him once on like a really nice corner post route to Omar Cooper that was really well designed. And then there was the insane dig throw from Caleb Williams to Roman Dunze, which is like, that is not replicable, and I'm not going to really put that against any defense. If the God quarterback beats you, he beats you. I mean, it might be replicable in this game.

23:15Derrik Klassen: Which throw? You know the throw. I guess there were two insane dig throws out of his own end zone.

23:21Robert Mays: It is the NFL play I've seen the most in my life.

23:25Dave Helman: and then the last one Charles Woods falling down against Kevin Coleman in the Dolphins game and that's like most of the deep completions they've given up this year and so like I just think with and we'll see about Carlton Davis and like how healthy he is exactly I know he's got a neck thing right now but like if assuming they have their corners this uh this week and assuming they can rush the pass the way they do because I do think that like the Patriots guys their blitz stuff is good their guys are just like mean pocket crushers too like Draymond Jones like Elijah ponder those guys just give you give you work so i think it's going to be interesting to see how

23:54Robert Mays: volatile this game gets in terms of downfield passing the volatility matters and i think it's you look at the way that they play and some of the volatility that comes from that the decision making the turnovers i think he has to play this way because if you their quick game completely represents their running game like the the and they'll you see that like even if we think we think of him as like he's chucking at every single play they're like 13th in the nfl i want to say look just looking at some of the numbers this week of the percentages of their throws that travel 10 plus air yards that it's not that high of a number like they actually do throw the ball underneath screens throws behind the line of scrimmage at a reasonably high rate because they have to approximate the running game with the quick game stuff from the shotgun so but that you can't live that way and sustain drives like it's really really really hard to do that without a running game and so if you're not an offense that's built to sustain drives the only way to survive is to take every explosive opportunity you possibly can and when you watch it like the first chunk to christian watson and that game against the panthers he's not open like he is he's taking these opportunities and i think some people would see that as a negative but i think in the overall formula of what the offense has to be every time it's even slightly blurry you have to rip these you have to try he's had 10 throws 10 completions of 20 plus air yards i think in the last like five games it's like two a game it's the only way for them to live because it's so hard for them to sustain drives based on the current construction of the offense you're right but that just made

25:28Derrik Klassen: me realize i hadn't thought about this all week and having this conversation just made me realize there's gonna be some chernobyl takes coming off this game oh somebody has to lose and the quarterback on the losing team is gonna do is gonna have like an insane oh yeah he will lose

25:44Robert Mays: it for them at the end there is going to be a disgusting interception in this game one of the

25:48Derrik Klassen: two guys will throw it and like is is this the matchup in the nfl right now of the two quarterbacks who are fearless enough to throw the stupidest interception you've ever seen or at least one

26:00Dave Helman: stafford's still up there all right josh allen is also in the conversation yes but these guys are

26:05Derrik Klassen: on the podium this is the matchup of quarterbacks that are willing to make those types of throws

26:09Robert Mays: And the other guy that is willing to throw a stupid interception, but it's not coupled with the plays that make the stupid interception right now is Justin Herbert. But guys that are good quarterbacks that are willing to throw the stupid interception, yes.

26:21Derrik Klassen: Justin Herbert has entered into a different territory of just throwing bad picks instead of the type of picks where you're like, no, but like if you look at this, this is why it's okay.

26:30Robert Mays: This is why it was worth it. Yes. That's not happening with Herbert right now. All right. Before we move on, let's take our first quick break. We've got a great Sunday night football matchup this week between the Bucks and Bears. When you flip on the game, be sure to turn on The Athletic Live on YouTube as well. Watch the game along with hosts Charles McDonald, Max Brown, and Daniel Popper and become part of the show in the interactive chat. The Athletic Live is presented by Google Gemini. Check it out now and subscribe on YouTube. Football season has arrived, and with the U.S. Bank's Smartly Visa signature card, you earn an unlimited 2 % cash back on every purchase, including at the stadium or at home watching on a brand new TV.

27:04Robert Mays: Score big with unlimited 2 % cash back on every purchase. Visit usbank.com slash smartlycard to learn more. The creditor and issuer of this card is U.S. Bank National Association. Pursuant to a license from Visa USA, Inc. Some restrictions may apply.

27:18Dave Helman: Feeding the family. It's a familiar theme, only familiar because it is so true. I work, my wife works, we've got two daughters, they're in school. Everyone is spread out during the day. Everyone has their activities. We come together as a family and it's like, hey, what are we going to do? Some days it could be easy. Some days it's a little bit more of a challenge figuring out what you're going to put on the table for dinner. Since we found ButcherBox, though, our dinners have become not only easier, but a whole lot more delicious as well. ButcherBox delivers 100 percent grass fed beef, organic chicken, wild caught seafood and more.

27:53Dave Helman: All sourced to standards they can actually tell you about. They've already done the research and made the tough sourcing decisions. so all you have to do is decide what's for dinner. It's a little like having the neighborhood butcher everyone wishes they still had. Someone who's incredibly particular about quality and sourcing so you don't have to be. Every box is customizable so you can choose the cuts and proteins that fit your plans. So let's talk about this. Just last weekend, we were thinking about what we were gonna have for dinner after a busy Saturday. Went down to the freezer, grabbed some chicken, thawed it, had it ready to go, and it was just delicious.

28:24Dave Helman: We were able to do whatever we wanted with it, in particular this time, threw some spices on it made some chicken fajitas grilled up the peppers it was just such a delicious dinner it made everyone happy and it was so easy thanks to butcher box with everything on your plate this time of year let butcher box handle the protein go to butcher box.com athletic football to get 20 off across your first two boxes plus new users get their choice of filet mignon new york strip or ribeye plus bacon in every box for the lifetime of their subscription with free shipping always. That's butcherbox.com slash athletic football.

28:57Dave Helman: Again, that's butcherbox.com slash athletic football. Trust me, it makes the holidays a lot easier. So me and my family, we live in the suburbs of Chicago. And one thing I love about the cluster of suburbs where we live is that while there are a lot of similarities among them, there are also enough differences to make each one feel unique. And those differences are largely driven by the small businesses that inhabit those towns, whether you are in one, another, the one over there, they each have enough of their own flair to make them all feel unique while they're all right on top of one another as well.

29:32Dave Helman: Being able to shop at those small businesses, pour into the suburb that we live in, but also pour into our neighbors as well, it really just feels good and makes it feel even more special being at home. With FAIR, it's easy for independent retailers to stock products from over 100 ,000 unique brands worldwide. It's perfect for planning inventory for the holiday season. We were just in one of those small businesses I was talking about a couple of days ago looking for a birthday gift for one of my daughter's friends. She's turning six. And so it was great to go into this toy store and be able to find so many different things from big retailers while still supporting this small business in our town.

30:07Dave Helman: By connecting retailers with over 100 ,000 unique brands, FAIR gives small and local businesses a platform to thrive. They've got curated wholesale products for home, apparel, beauty, food, and more. Fair reduces the risk of testing new products with analytics and free returns on first orders with every brand. So far, Fair has given more than 700 ,000 retailers access to over 100 ,000 brands. Sign up today and get 50 % off your first wholesale order up to$100 at fai.com slash taffs. That's fai.com slash taffs. Terms may apply.

30:48Robert Mays: all right let's get some of the other games from this slate hitting one thing from four more games on the week nine docket five more games let's start with bucks at bears on sunday night derek

31:01Dave Helman: this is all you buddy what do you got for me this is gonna be a war man i i was this is i think the most excited i've been for like a side-to-side matchup we've done all year maybe like or at least one of them because like obviously the the bears and what caleb williams is doing in the passing game right now is incredible the last two teams that they've played they've like beat up some really good defenses and the thing that I want to talk about specifically to this game the Bucks defense and Todd Bowles they've always been like a heavy blitz team but they've been incredible at it this year so I looked at shotgun blitzes not on first down these are like passing blitz downs the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have the second best defense in EPA per dropback and fourth best in success rate like they are just not giving you stuff ball has to come out early Caleb Williams on those exact plays is third in EPA per dropback and if you flip it to just his own which he has 26 dropbacks of he's the best in the NFL like he's Caleb Williams has been built to beat this and we saw it against Seattle like they don't pressure a ton but when they do they're typically a very very good team and obviously I thought Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson did a really good job of it and I think why this game is so tantalizing to me is that against New England it's a lot of man pressures they are trying to play one-on-one coverage they are trying to just heat you up and in that game the Bears and Caleb Williams they were blocking it up with seven and where like Rome is going to win somewhere.

32:12Dave Helman: We're going to get Luther Burden down there on a one-on-one 15 yards down the field. Against Seattle, they were winning more underneath. It was a lot more of like, okay, we think we know where we can pick it apart. We know who's coming. We're going to find answers. The Bucs have the volume of the New England Patriots where you're going to get blitzed half of the time at least, but they do more of the zone stuff that Seattle does. And so I'm just interested to see how well-equipped the Bears are to do it because it's similar-ish to the Flores game, but it's in a rainstorm. It's in week two. nobody knew that Flores was going to blitz quite that much and so willing to give them a mulligan for that one and I'm excited to see how this one unfolds can I ask you all a question that you might not know the answer to I know we've been talking a good amount about the blitz this year

32:52Derrik Klassen: for good reason why why is it working again for Todd Bowles like I mean we've known this is what Todd Bowles wants to do forever but it feels like it's working so much better I think the corners are significantly better than the linebacker play that's I mean the personnel just seems so much

33:07Robert Mays: better to me that's to me the simplest answer is that i just think that the corner play and the linebacker play for that team like if you look at the numbers i know they don't play a ton of man coverage but i think this is just a good example last year and i don't have the numbers in front of me i want to say the bucks were maybe the worst team in the nfl last season in like success rate when playing man coverage let me i want to pull up the numbers because i am curious about this they were like and i think that speaks to just cornerback quality in those moments right or just back seven quality period.

33:37Robert Mays: So if you look at the numbers, so there have been 64 seasons from 2025 and 2026 combined, right? And the 2025 bucks had the 15th worst of those 64 success rate against man coverage. The 2026 bucks have the eighth best. And so it's just been drastically different. They're giving up a 36.5 % success rate in man this year, the bucks are. Last year, it was 48.5%. So we're talking a 12 percentage point difference in those two and they don't play a ton of man but to me again that's just indicative of it's something else you can do yes it's the quality of coverage that you are consistently getting on the back end compared to what it has looked like in years past when the linebackers have been a huge concern the corners have been banged up and have been a concern like and then you combine that with the front seven pieces the pass rushers are just better yeah i mean they're just better i think

34:28Dave Helman: they're better in run defense too because like to me the whole todd bulls formula is we are going to murder you on first down we're gonna get you into second and nine and now the drive unravels because we can do all the stuff that we want to do and last year they were like 67 and a half uh run defense success rate on first down which is like good it was like 12th in the league but if your whole formula is we need this yeah well you need to be one of the best in the league and right now

34:49Robert Mays: they're third 12th when you donate the amount of resources that they do to exactly it can't be and

34:54Dave Helman: they're third this year and so then they're getting the downs and distances they want when they want to do some of the cool stuff they do the linebackers are not actively ruining every coverage they want one and i don't even think trotter and anzalone are like fantastic coverage players but they are markedly better than what we got last year it's better than what they've

35:10Derrik Klassen: been getting and anzalone's he has gotten better he's been better the last few weeks than he was

35:14Dave Helman: at the start of the year and then the last thing jacob paris dude like he is zion mccollum's played better but paris is like insane right okay i agree mccollum's good though yes oh yeah he's He's playing the best ball that he's played his entire career, I think.

35:28Robert Mays: The Bucs are number one in defensive DVOA now. After last week, they were number one. So the Bears in back-to-back weeks will have played the team that is number one in defensive DVOA.

35:37Derrik Klassen: That's crazy. I'm just, there's a fun synergy there between the Bucs playing that ridiculous game in the rain and then the Bears also having to play a ridiculous rain game against the Vikings. I mean, I know they weren't in consecutive weeks, but...

35:52Robert Mays: The Bucs have played multiple of them, right? I mean, the game against the Browns got delayed by like six hours.

35:57Derrik Klassen: Yeah, that's true. And wasn't it raining when they played the Packers too? It feels like it's been raining half the game through the box. It rains in Tampa like 70 % of the time. That's just what happens.

36:08Dave Helman: The last thing I do want to add in terms of like this Tampa Bay defense, the team that I thought had the best answers against them in terms of the blitz stuff was Pittsburgh. And they were willing to throw some like side adjustment stuff. So like say they have trips to the right side and Friar Muth is at number three next to the formation. if the nickel or safety whoever fires he just like kind of looks at the quarterback and runs five yards and that's it he's not really not that's not the designed route necessarily obviously rogers has been doing this for 20 years so that stuff is a little bit easier for him the bears i feel like you don't see as much of that from them so i'm wondering if that's just something they want it yeah they want to block they're trying to block it or they're just going to call quick game and be like he can beat it it's not like we're going to build this into the thing post snap because i mean that's a lot to put on any third year quarterback but

36:49Robert Mays: like still he's done a really good job with it i mean like it's either beating guys with the ball or the ability to shake off an unblock defender or just like even not unblocked guys but when there's been pressure his ability to subtle pocket movement shake a guy off in the pocket like he's been doing that consistently and i think they're especially from the gun they're doing a good job they run the ball out of the shotgun in those second and long situations relatively often i think part of that is to give credence to their ability to use pass to use play action in those situations and if you go back to the patriots game they'll use some gun play action in those like second and eight second and tens and i think part of that is to subtly move the pocket on those plays in order to make it a little bit harder to heat them up and so they just had good answers like they just have good answers against the blitz for the most part in a bunch of different ways on top of the fact that the quarterback can just make you right even when you're not yeah speaking of the blitz let's get to the next one here the bills are playing the vikings on monday Night Football, which is one hell of a game.

37:48Robert Mays: This one's mine. We have Brian Flores going against, I think, in my opinion, probably you'd throw him homes in there probably too right now, but I really do think Allen has it. I think he's the best pre-snap, like, pass protection quarterback in the world right now. You go back. I would encourage people when you're watching this game on Monday, hopefully the mics will be good enough on the field for Monday Night Football, turn it up and just listen to what it sounds like at the line of scrimmage when Josh Allen is playing. When I went back and rewatched the Ravens game from last week, I watched the TV copy instead of going back and watching the film on it because I wanted to hear what the communication was like.

38:23Robert Mays: And he's doing everything. Everything. They do such a great job. And they've been doing this for years where they'll do that little yo-yo motion with the running back and we're going to try to get just one half second more of information. And he's changing all the protections himself. They're often going to the right places. The efficiency on this is crazy. Right. So I said earlier, Jordan Love has 70 quick pressures against the Packers this year. 7-0. The Bills have allowed 10 quick pressures on the season.

38:52Derrik Klassen: That's obscene, dude. That's insane, man.

38:54Robert Mays: 10. And they've been doing this consistently for a long time. And their offensive line is good, obviously. This is about environment. It's not about the quality of the individual pieces.

39:04Derrik Klassen: The offensive line is obviously good. It hasn't been completely banged up, but Spencer Brown's been dealing with injuries this year. Like it's not as if it's all perfect for Buffalo. So the fact that they can overcome that anyway, that is a crazy stat.

39:19Robert Mays: 12.6 % quick pressure rate against Josh Allen this year per next gen. The league average is 24.3. So they're half of the league average in that area. But what's interesting about this is when you watch them do it, Ty Johnson's a really good pass protecting back. And again, they are a great pre-snap pass protection team. but it still is a lot of like six man pass pro or they'll get five out and he'll beat people with the ball they're very good at that where it's like if we have to be an empty i know where the outlet is i can get the ball to the back quick on the perimeter so it's a lot of five or six man protection the vikings are eating teams alive they'll want to do six man protection against them with the offensive line in the back that's like what they pick on and so i'm curious the bills don't always have to do this but there are games where they'll have dawson knox in the back field they'll do some of that sniffer stuff do we see more of that in this game and do we see more of that even maybe in the run game because of some of the things that the lions did last week the bills don't often have to do that but against this team do we see a slight deviation in how they approach these situations just because of what we've seen other teams have success with so far

40:25Dave Helman: this year and i think you should if you're gonna let brian flores just know that he's getting six they can dictate the slide and they're just gonna pick on the running back well shit you're gonna lose 80 % of the time we've already seen that for the majority of this year and really for the last handful of years even if obviously they're blitzing more this year than they have before and I think what's been interesting is that some of the teams that we've seen willing to beat them uh will just like hard block it up like the Lions doing that last week where they were like we're gonna play with seven we're gonna do different stuff like we're gonna play with I don't want to say like non-traditional rules and pass pro but just different stuff than you would normally get of like half slide, we'll have the back go cover somebody.

41:02Dave Helman: They'll do more full slide stuff. You know, we'll have two tight ends blocking on the same side and wash everything down. We'll have the back go with a tight end and kind of block everything down. And so it just gives you options, which I think just making sure that like Brian Flores doesn't always have the first step on you, I think is huge. And then one thing that we just haven't seen from teams at all this year is really trying to beat them with five out and just throwing to the back a bunch. I do think Josh Allen and the Bills can do that. And like they like to do that.

41:26Robert Mays: I mean, they should do that because they're so good at swallowing that stuff.

41:30Dave Helman: I would lean on the seven man stuff. But I do think if any team can do it, it's them in part because even if he doesn't immediately want to flip the ball and like it and maybe there's a free rusher, like Josh can just make you right. And so I don't know if you want to live that way necessarily, but I do think that they have that potential more than almost any other team in the NFL.

41:51Robert Mays: You know what was surprising to me going back and looking at some of the numbers on it? I don't know where the, where the bills are this year, but historically, I don't think it's a super, it's super high. Historically, there've been years where they've thrown a lot of screens. The Vikings don't see many screens.

42:03Derrik Klassen: Despite what they, despite how they live. Probably got tired. People got tired of watching Van Ginkle. I think that's honestly part of it.

42:10Robert Mays: I think that their teams are scared of throwing screens against them because of, there has been so many catastrophic downside moments that offenses have just kind of stopped doing it, which you would think that would be an answer you could lean on against this team and no one really does it.

42:25Derrik Klassen: I wonder, that makes me think of the Bears play against Seattle the other night. Where it's three yards deeper into the backfield. Yeah, just drop somebody even deeper. It also makes me think, and that's why, yeah, I think the Bills could do a lot of shit out of Empty, but this is already a team that leans so heavily into the multiple tight end stuff. Yeah. And we'd say all the time that it's a copycat league. I'm so excited to see, like, the Bills already, they've used multiple tight ends on 200 snaps this year. Like they do it among the most in the NFL. I'm so excited to see if they just rip off what Drew Petsing was doing last week.

42:59Derrik Klassen: Like one week later, they're just like, yep, we're adding that.

43:01Robert Mays: In theory, they can do that. Absolutely, they can. And it wouldn't be a hard pivot for them at all. So the Vikings this year, I'm pretty sure it's the lowest number in the league. They have seen 13 screen passes against them. Wow, 13. So that's fewer than two again.

43:15Derrik Klassen: Which is funny because if a team like that's, you know, the football 101 response to a lot of blitzes is just get the ball out and do shit like that.

43:22Robert Mays: Excuse me. The Lions have only seen 12 against them. So the Lions are dead last. The Vikings are 31st. Going back to the Bucs conversation, the Bucs have seen 33 of them in eight games. And so they've been really good against them. The Bucs have been. But it gets that style of defense. This is actually a really interesting list. Number one in the league by far in terms of screen scene this season is the Los Angeles Rams, which I don't think should surprise anybody. They're just like, we're just going to try to do everything we can to get the defensive line out of the game and pick on the linebackers.

43:55Robert Mays: But the Vikings are 31st, which is such a wild stat. The other part of this that is worth pointing out, just curiosity, is what the Bills' run game approach looks like. Because the Vikings this year, speaking of things they just don't see very often, 11 duo carries against the Vikings this year, which is one of the lowest numbers in the entire league. And the Bills obviously run a ton of it. They have 38 carries of it, second in the league behind the Rams. It's the foundation of their own game. I assume teams don't do a lot of it against the Vikings because if you're going to try to set up all of these double teams across the defensive line, it helps to know where the players are going to be.

44:33Robert Mays: And if there are run stunting on every single play and all these run blitzes are coming and you don't have those hip-to-hip blocks, you're going to struggle to be effective on those runs. A lot of the teams that are up near the top are the four-down attack front teams where you know where those guys are going to be and they're a little bit undersized. The Niners, the Browns, they see a lot of those types of runs. The Vikings see very little of them, but the Bills are really good at it. So talking about stealing things from the Lions, do we see some more tight ends in the backfield, some more like split zone type things, like trying to cut the defense in half the way the Lions were able to consistently do last week?

45:09Dave Helman: Their offensive staff is good, so I expect a little bit of that. I actually think their duo stuff is like maybe more than most teams kind of equipped to actually be okay here because i think when most teams i think would be scared out of duo if they don't know where the double teams are coming from when i watch the way that this bill's team is playing because this has been the core of their run game for three years now at least the the duo stuff specifically they do such a good job of knowing when they're not going to get the double team and just washing everything down immediately and like that's how duo can play out if teams are going to throw six seven bodies at the line of scrimmage or whatever and i just think their communication their understanding of it they do such a good job of just like okay hey, I know we don't get the double, just wash it down.

45:47Dave Helman: And then the way James Cook just makes them right when he knows that he's not going to get the double teams in front of them, like I think most teams I would be freaked out to play this way, but I actually think the Bills are like weirdly well-equipped to do it.

45:58Robert Mays: Well, with what you're talking about right now, if you think of it visually, some of those runs the Lions were hitting, it works out the same way. Like if you're washing it all down the same way the Lions were, in practice it actually ends up turning into the same picture as the play happens. And so you could argue that is the right way to do it if you are buttoned up enough where you guys are coming off in the right way and that communication is where it needs to be and so how they approach that and whether they think they're the team that can be the exception and what runs work against the vikings that's going to be really interesting but also like the bills are willing to get the ball on the perimeter at times and if you can it's that's it's dangerous to do like it's a risk reward thing to do that against the vikings but i do think some of those perimeter runs could theoretically hit if you can kind of pin down the edges a little bit.

46:43Robert Mays: So really interesting matchup and one that I'm very excited to watch. Broncos Panthers is our next one. Dave, one thing you're watching in Broncos Panthers is what?

46:53Derrik Klassen: I think we need to hit a news item that just got lost in our cycle, because if something happens on a Friday, we're probably not going to get to it. So like Derek, you and I did the Panthers Packers recap. And then the next day, Carolina fired DeGiro Evero. And then you go into the weekend and there's a million things happening and then i started prepping for the week and i was like oh right that happened right before week eight really got underway so panthers made a dc change i understand when this something like this happens midway through the year this is like a multiple game multiple year problem and like the panthers just never did what they were supposed to under

47:32Robert Mays: ever oh i think that's fair to say i think that's the issue some people are looking at this and they'd be like man they're gonna fire that guy with down to cornerback five it's a weird it's a

47:40Derrik Klassen: weird specific game to do it because the corners are out jalen phillips didn't play considering the receiving firepower of the packers i i thought the panthers defense played fine in that game but it's it's not that game that's not why it happens i 100 agree with that and i think derrick

47:57Robert Mays: and i have talked about this a decent amount this year and we'll get into the specifics of this conversation as it relates to the Todd Walsh part of it in a second but as they've even moved through this season it's felt like a defense that's still just grasping at straws where it's like well what if we did this you know and I I've never felt in the years where he was the coach I was gonna say that I've never felt like they had a distilled identity that's actually not true there have been years where they've had a distilled identity but it's just been an identity where they

48:28Dave Helman: get roasted the d-line was so bad for the early parts of it that i was like well you can't even

48:33Robert Mays: be anything if you want to or it's like oh we're going to be a too high team and we're going to play all cover three and it's going to be a lot of like you know it's you knew exactly who they were in previous years but it was the type of defense where they were just getting shish kebab

48:44Derrik Klassen: their identity over the course of the time he was there is that they can't stop the run and like a couple like two years ago that was because they didn't have the personnel right last year the run defense was pretty good but they couldn't do anything else it is not good right now like especially considering and again they're beat up i get it they're one of the most derrick we talked about it after the game they're they are one of the teams having that season from hell sort of injury like they just are and so that it's a bummer for them it sucks for evero i would also point out when they were relatively healthy in week one they gave up the highest point total of the last three years to chicago like maybe this was a weird week to do it but i don't think it's completely out of left field they never finished better than 22nd in defensive dvoa when he was the defensive coordinator they're 19th right now they're 28th in scoring defense giving up a 50 59 point game will do that to you so it's todd wash now uh and i love how everything is connected because evero is a fangio guy going back to when they were in san francisco he's it's another fangio disciple that hasn't really worked out the way that you wanted it to that's over man it's i mean

49:56Robert Mays: it's not even that oh man the hit rate's not great the hit rate's non-existent there are no hits

50:01Dave Helman: vick himself has kind of lost it a little bit obviously they've got some roster issues but

50:05Derrik Klassen: still the funny thing that so todd wash he was jacksonville's dc for the saxonville year he was from 16 to 20. And he comes from Gus Bradley and Pete Carroll and Robert Sala worked with him on that staff. And every time I dive into coaching situations, I'm just like, God damn, there's like four groups of people and it all stems out from that. So Todd Walsh has said a lot of exciting stuff this week about, you know, they want to play more attack front stuff, which I don't think is surprising. I think he said on Thursday that if we make mistakes, we're going to do it, go on a million miles an hour, just probably refreshing to hear if you're a Panthers fan just like try to do something even

50:44Robert Mays: if it doesn't work just try to create some chaos that's another situation though where you're just cosplaying as a different type of defense than the one that you want to be and I have questions

50:53Dave Helman: about how well it works right because now the problem is they built the roster for the other

50:58Robert Mays: yeah Lee Hunter and Derek Brown that's like those aren't the types of players that you have

51:03Derrik Klassen: I feel for the Panthers genuinely because I mean, that's cool. You have Todd Wash now. Phillips still isn't practicing. Maybe he plays, but he's not practicing on Thursday. Corners are still on IR. Will Lee got hurt in the past. Yeah, he's not going to play this game. I don't know what anybody is supposed to do with this. And on top of that, I know we said one thing from this game, but does any of that matter? Like if the defense coalesces around the new D.C. and they just play with their hair on fire. Does it matter if the offensive line is what it looked like in Green Bay? Because that ain't going to fly against Denver, I don't think.

51:41Robert Mays: It's a real problem. I mean, because the quarterback, I think, was able to mitigate a lot of that for the first month of the season or so. Really the only game where Bryce wasn't able to overcome the pass protection issues when they were having a bunch of them was the Browns game. It was really the only game where you could feel the pocket just getting crushed over and over and over again, and he was having trouble finding space and outlets and all that kind of stuff. He was doing a great job of mitigating in a lot of other games, but now he just doesn't look 100 % healthy. And so if he's not going to be able to move around, then you really feel the bottom start to fall out of the passing game a little bit.

52:16Robert Mays: I think we're starting to get there, and Denver is a team where you could, it's going to get worse before it gets better. It could be shit.

52:22Derrik Klassen: And we record this on Thursday, so keep an eye on it, obviously, but Damian Lewis wasn't at practice on Thursday either. he missed the Packers game and that was a big part of why it looked as bad as it did obviously I just yeah I'll say it for the third time I feel for the Panthers but doesn't change the fact that

52:41Robert Mays: they got to play the Broncos on Sunday we're entering a period now where it's going to be a strange offseason conversation for Carolina if they can't right the ship here a little bit I mean I still have faith in their ability to compete in the division why wouldn't they be able to anybody But right now, I think I probably feel the best about the Bucs of any of those teams because they're the best up front of any of those teams on both sides of the ball.

53:06Dave Helman: They have the they have, I think, by far the best combination of offensive line, defensive line in the division. Obviously, you know, whatever we're going to get from Baker Mayfield, we don't know. But the floor for the Bucs, I think, feels so much higher for that exact reason. And I think, too, like you see it in this game, like this Broncos offensive line and defensive line is just going to maul what Carolina is able to do right now. And like, if you're going to have that on top of obviously some of the other, you know, ceiling lifting players you have on the Broncos defense specifically. Yeah, man, like this is probably going to be a game that like has a pretty big chance to get away from you.

53:38And now we're in a place where, all right, this is a way down the line hypothetical conversation.

53:43Robert Mays: But I think it's worth at least starting to think of like this, considering the stakes coming into the year and like what this was supposed to be for the Panthers. Let's just play this out and say the Panthers finish is like an eight and nine team that doesn't win the NFC South. What do you do? like what's the mindset at the end of all of this? Because I think the flashes you've seen from the offense and what the offense is clearly capable of at its best is worth hanging on to. And so do you just kind of tell yourself at the end of the season, into the offseason, like, hey, we're going to extend Bryce Young.

54:15Robert Mays: We're going to bring back this offensive staff. If we bring in a different style of defense when we get healthy, that can be enough to get us to a place where we're like a real playoff team. I think that's probably the story I tell myself, but I don't know whether that's the right thing to land on. If you're David Tepper, Dan Morgan, all of those people.

54:39Derrik Klassen: I think this is exactly why picking up Bryce's option was a no brainer because it buys you a year.

54:45Robert Mays: Like, but you're gonna let him go into a lame duck season next year.

54:47Derrik Klassen: There's no, there's a lame duck season with a quarterback. I mean, you can tag the quarterback. You can extend him if he plays well. Yeah. Yeah. I absolutely am willing to do that if I need to.

54:57Dave Helman: All right. Because, I mean, if they win seven or eight games, and I know he's not been perfectly healthy, he played better for the first month of the season. I just don't see how you can pay a player given, like, what his profile has been to this point.

55:06Robert Mays: The rumors are that they're already moving down the road. They already saw that.

55:08Dave Helman: They're, like, at$50 million. I was like, I don't know, man. I would like to see the numbers. Which$50 million will technically be, like, a decent discount, you know, a year or two in the future relative to what the other top guys are getting. But, like, that's still a lot of money to me.

55:20Derrik Klassen: It doesn't feel like enough of a discount.

55:22Dave Helman: Exactly.

55:24Robert Mays: We're entering interesting times with where that team is going to be if things keep progressing at this rate. And again, I think there's a lot of reasons for optimism early in the season. And do you attach yourself to what that looked like and tell yourself that's what it can be again? I don't know. I don't think that's delusional, but I think it's dangerous.

55:43Dave Helman: It's not one for one, but isn't that just what the Colts did? Like, obviously, the situations are a little bit different. Daniel Jones's injury was a little bit more serious, but in terms of like, we caught fire for like...

55:53Robert Mays: I think that's the cynical view on it. I think that's the, if you are, if you think, and it's the same thing you guys consistently said about the Colts, and I give you credit for this. why are we treating these eight games as the reality compared to the previous how dozens that we had seen and i think you can make the same argument again if you were skeptical about bryce young you can make the same argument where why are we treating these five games as reality when

56:17Derrik Klassen: we have multiple seasons where it hasn't looked this good the first month was exciting it was not nearly exciting enough to like sway me yeah i'm sorry it just wasn't that's the other thing too The Colts were like the best offense. I'm five, six, dude. I would love to see this work out for Bryce Young, but it's not, it's not nearly enough for me to like drastically change my opinion, but I'll say it again. That's fine. Cause you picked up the option and like, you could run it back and, and tinker and try to fix the offensive line and continue to add defensive talent. And you could do all of that without making a seismic decision that alters the future of the franchise.

57:01Derrik Klassen: You're just like, yeah, we have Bryce for the fifth year. Let's run it back. He can be good.

57:05Robert Mays: You know teams just don't like doing that, though.

57:07Derrik Klassen: Teams don't like doing that. This is a situation where that's what I think I would do. Let's get to our next one here. This game is in Spain, right? This game is in Madrid.

57:15Robert Mays: Look at you!

57:16Derrik Klassen: There we go. You knew it was the international game.

57:18Robert Mays: You knew what city it was in. I just like international cities. That's the reason. I was thinking about how nice it would be to go to Madrid right now. You know where they're playing? Is it the Bernabeu, right? Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Look at you.

57:29Derrik Klassen: I've been there.

57:30Robert Mays: You've been in the Burnham Hall? I went to, I toured it when I was like 20 years old. Oh, that's cool. When I was in Madrid, when I was traveling, when I was studying abroad. Part of the reason I know this is that Zach Taylor was asked today which of the two big Spanish soccer clubs he's a fan of. I think it was probably Barcelona and Real Madrid. And he was like, I like them both. That was his very... Oh, coward answer. It was his very diplomatic answer.

57:50Derrik Klassen: Cowardly answer that makes people madder than just choosing a side. Right, like just pick one because now everybody's mad. I like the Packers and the Bears. Like, what are we doing?

57:58Robert Mays: I was in Madrid two years ago, and we were in, like, the Plaza Mayor, and I was watching two kids kick around a full water bottle. They were just, like, kicking it around, and it was a moment, like, watching that happen, I was like, we'll never have a shot. We will never have a chance as a soccer-playing nation, as I'm watching these two children, like, show the most skill I've ever seen from a child while kicking an object with an with a full water bottle in a plaza in madrid derek this is you buddy one thing from bangles falcons what are you watching uh the long and

58:35Dave Helman: the short of it can you cover t higgins and jamar chase the answer is probably no the sometimes it's that simple sometimes it's that simple the more specific angles i will get into this uh first of all the falcons are not blitzing nearly as much as they did last year and i do think that that's notable because that was some of their best stuff like we were like whoa Olbrick is like doing all this crazy stuff this year they're really not doing it Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals are third in the NFL in EPA per drop back against non-blitzes and they're like average against the blitz and I think there's a few reasons for that they're not as aggressive versus the blitz and all that certain stuff but like when you give Joe Burrow time and T Higgins and Jamar Chase time to get downfield they're gonna win I think the more specific thing I want to get to is this team and construct the Bengals construction on offense is kind of similar to the Panthers actually in terms of you just have like Jalen Coker and Jamar Chase are like similar physically yeah T Higgins and T Mac are like pretty similar physically and then the way that the Panthers attacked the Falcons in that game was how many different ways can we find to throw corner routes versus two high one high it doesn't matter how many times can we throw to the boundary like that that's what the whole Bengals passing game has been is like how many different smash variations can we run how many different sale variations can we run and they're just operating at such a high level right now so it just feels like i've seen the c plus version of this movie before and now we're moving to the one that is over the last handful of weeks been one of the best passing games in the nfl i'm a little bit worried this could could run away from the falcons

1:00:01Robert Mays: this version of the bengals is awesome it's it's better than it was before it's crazy and i think it's a few different things and we've talked about this a little bit the t higgins i don't know the right word to say or the right like noun to use because it's not an ascension right like i he's obviously been a great player for a long time what he's doing now is different than anything he's ever done before in the nfl like some of the areas of the field that he's attacking like the and it's allowed the offense to attack those areas of the field like what he's done as an intermediate middle of the field receiver is crazy some of the yak stuff that he's bringing to the table it reminds me a little bit in terms of overall impact from a guy that we might pigeonhole as like a vertical X receiver impacting the game in two or three other ways and it taking his offense to just a completely different place is like almost what George Pickens did last year but better like that's kind of what this feels like if you look at I was talking to a guy in the front office this offseason we were discussing just overall individual player impact and they had an in-house model where George Pickens was like the sixth most valuable non-quarterback in the NFL last year.

1:01:10Robert Mays: And when I watched T Higgins and you look at the numbers last year, George Pickens had 93 catches for 1 ,450 yards and nine touchdowns in a massive season. T Higgins is on pace for a like truly monster year that looks like that. If you ran those numbers right now, I don't think you would be able to come up with like eight non-quarterbacks who are more impactful this season than T Higgins. And that's just not how we talked about T Higgins previously. He's like, oh, he's a 1B. You know, like that's typically how it's been. That's not what he is this year.

1:01:39Dave Helman: And I'm like so done doing that because for the longest time, it really was like, oh, he's a he's a top 20 receiver playing next to Jamar Chase. Isn't that crazy? Like he's the best wide receiver to in the NFL. He's a 1B. If he went somewhere else, he could be an alpha. He is the alpha on a team with Jamar Chase right now. He is playing out of his mind. Yes, like he is truly playing out of his mind. And the middle of the field stuff has really been the most impressive. You know, we talked about the play that he just like plucks the ball off of Roquan Smith's helmet, obviously in that game. But just all the dig routes that he's run.

1:02:08Dave Helman: He's their best like over the middle blitz beater right now in part because what you're talking about, like the way that he comes back to the ball has always been good. But it's gone from like a 92 to a 99. And then I think it's made his yak stuff better. Like he even had a play. I think it was in this last game that they played where he's running like that deep in breaker from the right hand side. And Burrow puts it like a foot or two behind him. and he bends back to it so easily without really breaking his stride. And as soon as his foot's in the ground from landing, he's already going. There's no like reset.

1:02:38Dave Helman: I have to gather myself. None of that. He is just unbelievably explosive player right now. Like he is. I just don't think that there are more than a half dozen receivers in him in the NFL that I would take like today to go win a football game.

1:02:50Robert Mays: Structurally, some of the things that they're doing, they did a good job of playing this play specific play out on NFL Live this week where they'll do a ton of double posts in the red zone. That's like one thing they hit all the time. all these double posts and teased one of these touchdowns was on the deep out to the pylon where it's essentially the exact same stem and distribution of the double post except he snaps it off to the pylon their ability to create conflict within the very specific kind of small box they now live in as a shotgun team is incredibly impressive and i think that one small thing that i have noticed even if they're now back to like a full-on shotgun world for the most part is that their condensed set rate this year has gone from 35 to 35 percent from 25 last year and so it's just small little things that even if the overall environment that they have to live in is the same they're constantly like finding little tweaks on it they're finding ways to build on it i again this conversation about the offensive staff in cincinnati has been such a complicated one for so long because they can't pull the levers that other teams do like they they cannot do i don't i'm not trying to like they can't do the things liam cohen does no like they can't be like i'm gonna go do all this stuff and so where we watch the jacks offense it's like look at all this amazing cool shit the the bangles can't do that because of the way the quarterback wants to

1:04:15Derrik Klassen: play and they have offense they have like three of the 12 best players in the nfl and so but i think

1:04:21Robert Mays: it's no it's not a knock against them it's not a slight it's okay for them to play like this but i think because they don't win by overt design as much as some of these other offenses do the staff will just never get credit for the subtler things that they do to put their their players in positions to win big man posterized db yeah i don't give a shit about that it's like it's i i do think that we just don't we don't give them enough credit and haven't given them any credit because we just look at the players and like man the players are really good like i don't think this is to me like the simplest versions of the eagles offenses over the last few years no it's where it's way more than that yeah it's more layered than that as an offense and i just don't think we really talk about it that way because for the most part it's good player good

1:05:05Derrik Klassen: throw ball big guy when somebody in a bingles uniform does something that makes my jaw drop three times a game i just i'm i'm less interested in the cool schematic stuff so not to discount what you're saying but that's just my caveman brain which so not to cut you off but as much as long as we're talking about how good their players are i'm getting out over my skis here but like we should start including a fourth guy there maybe we should the right tackle yes the

1:05:30Dave Helman: right yeah man dude he he is a marvel in pass protection like i just the stuff that they are allowed to do because he's out there and for so long for joe burrow's crew we talked about like oh the offensive line this the offensive line that it's still imperfect new orlando brown's not playing his best ball you can get Dylan Fairchild with some of the games and stunts like that but the fact that they have a guy on the right side that you literally don't have to think about at all it gives him no help against T.J.

1:05:55Robert Mays: Watt this is a Marius Mims let me just say that we

1:05:57Dave Helman: haven't said his name Marius Mims no we're talking about he's not just the right tackle

1:06:00Derrik Klassen: Marius Mims has graduated into the right tackle he's the right tackle when you just call somebody by their position that's when you know shit's serious he they did not help him against T.J.

1:06:10Robert Mays: Watt in the Steelers game I dropped this stat on the discord this week T.J.

1:06:14Dave Helman: Watt leads the NFL

1:06:14Robert Mays: on sacks right now by the way and i assume it's good once again maybe the most chipped player in

1:06:19Derrik Klassen: right per next gen stats amarius mims has been one-on-one in his blocking assignments 89 of the time this year and he's allowed a pressure on three percent of those opportunities where does that rank when i tackle it do you know it is not only the best so far this season per next gen it It is the second best mark halfway through a year since 2018, only behind 2022 Tristan Wirfs.

1:06:47Dave Helman: Wow. Yeah. Okay. That's crazy.

1:06:51Derrik Klassen: I feel like I'm getting out over my skis, but. That doesn't feel like it. I mean, assuming the second half of the year goes as well as the first, he should be an all pro. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah, absolutely.

1:07:02Robert Mays: I'm looking at the numbers right now on NextGen. In the week three game where they played against the Steelers, they'd shipped tj wide a reasonable amount still zero double teams over the course of the entire game zero so they left him without a ton of help for a good majority of that game and then the last thing i want to say about the the falcons game specifically is that teams this year teams are not playing the same at the same teams aren't playing cloud coverages or two high coverages at the same frequency against the bangles that they have in years past. I don't really know what the reason for that is.

1:07:34Dave Helman: I honestly think that's because they will throw the smash corner every time. I truly think that that's what it is.

1:07:40Robert Mays: They've learned how to live in that world so well that teams aren't approaching it. That honestly may be the answer. The Falcons this year have run more single high than any other team in the league. That comes with its own issues if you're going to do that against this team. If you're going to give them one on ones on the outside, they're going to absolutely cook you. When the Falcons... You look at it and you would assume... If you're going to live in all that single high, does it leave yourself a little bit vulnerable? The Falcons have a lot of 40 % success rate in those single high coverages.

1:08:08Robert Mays: It's 50 % in split safety because they're just not comfortable in a lot of those coverages. And so what do you do against the Bengals? Do you live in the place that you're comfortable living in and give them one-on-ones on the outside? Or do you say, we're going to do a little bit more cloud, we're going to muddy the picture a little bit, and maybe we're not as comfortable with it, but it's going to give us help against those guys. You mentioned the Panthers game. they were getting destroyed when they were running those coverages against the Panthers. And I think it's just because that's not the world they necessarily want to live in.

1:08:38Robert Mays: So the Bengals entire thing with why they wanted to be able to run the ball a little bit better was we want at least a few more. You have to pick your poison situations against us. And the Falcons, they want to pick the poison. Like they want to play single high. And so whether they end up doing that, I think it's going to be really interesting to watch. Last one here, Raiders and Niners.

1:08:59Derrik Klassen: Dave this one's all you too buddy the Niners were on their bye week when they traded for DeForest Buckner so it feels like it happened a while ago and we have yet to watch him play with his old team which I think is really exciting Forrest Buckner is one of 18 interior defensive linemen with at least 20 pressures this year it's got double digit run stuffs and that's on a Colts defense that's 27th in defensive DVOA obviously just did not have a lot of help in Indianapolis and so now clearly even at 32 he's not Jeffrey Simmons at this point in his career but he is still he is well said he's a very effective defensive tackle and plugging Buckner onto a line with I mean plugging him on there with Oso Digizua and Mike Michael Williams being back that would be exciting enough and and Fred Warner's there that would be exciting enough but But Nick Bosa is back at practice this week as well.

1:09:54Derrik Klassen: And on the list of issues you might have with the Niners this season, best team in the NFL, but if you were nitpicking, you would say, ah, pass rush is not that great. I mean, they could not touch Michael Pinnock's in that game two weeks ago. And so to add him to this group, it's incredibly exciting. I can't wait to watch it.

1:10:16Robert Mays: Yeah. I mean, it changes the complexion of things in terms of how deep your rotation is, the amount of guys you can affect the quarterback with. And the Raiders' offense has been way better than they have any right to be. I think that Klunk Hubiak, once again, is just doing a phenomenal job. But this defense is just a different sort of beast than a lot of the ones that they've had to play against so far and a lot of the ones they've played against recently. So I'm really curious what that looks like. And then on the other side of the ball, we haven't talked about this really, the Raiders' defense has fallen off a cliff.

1:10:45Robert Mays: Completely gone. Like, fallen off a cliff. if they were doing some fun stuff over the first month, and this happens, right, where it's like, oh, man, Raiders defense, plucky, Rob Leonard, let's do this. And then you realize, like, oh, they have no good players. Like, Max Crosby is the only good player on the Raiders defense. They're young. They have guys that will potentially grow into some of these roles. Playing a lot of young draft picks. Yes, and, like, the linebackers have looked considerably worse because the interior defensive line just is in a kind of an abjectly bad group, and I think we knew that coming in.

1:11:16Robert Mays: And so they are, they've gotten picked on a decent amount. I will say we, I, we haven't talked about this game at all. Cause I didn't do the hangover Raiders jets was a blast.

1:11:27Dave Helman: It was awesome. A blast. That game was so old dudes hooping.

1:11:31Robert Mays: I really, really enjoyed that game. And that Kirk is still giving you that. Again, the offense I think is still really fun. And some of the things that they can do throwing the football, but the defense for the Raiders, like I, this could get ugly with what the Niners can do on Sunday.

1:11:45Derrik Klassen: It could get ugly, but I do. I think the like Niners defense Raiders offense, I hope is fun because like Kirk has played. He's been such a nice surprise this year relative to what a lot of us expected. And then Kubiak's obviously intimately familiar with Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers. And in general, Clint Kubiak, I'm sure Seahawks fans would love to tell you, like can mitigate offensive line issues and mitigate, you know, a team's pass rush. So what Kubiak's plan is here for dealing with the 49ers, I think is, is going to be fun to watch. I hope it lives up to it. Cause I do think the Niners being able to move up and down the field on the Raiders defense might get this thing out of whack, but I think Raiders offense, Niners defense could be a fun little chess match.

1:12:33Derrik Klassen: And Fred Warner was talking about Brock Bowers and everything he brings to the table earlier this week. So I, I think that could be pretty exciting.

1:12:43Robert Mays: If you were the Raiders right now, what would you be asking for if the Vikings called you and asked for Kirk cousins? We talked about this on today's show.

1:12:53Derrik Klassen: I mean, I think you got to try to hold them up, right? Like you got to try to fleece them.

1:12:59Dave Helman: Yes. Because the Vikings, the Vikings offense, if they can get to like the middle of the path, that's what we said.

1:13:04Robert Mays: Like if I were Minnesota right now, that is the thing I'd be trying to do more so than like Jonathan Taylor. Yeah. That is the thing I would be trying to do with the way that Kirk is

1:13:14Dave Helman: currently playing because i i think i said on the hangover when he's protected kirk is like a legitimately a top 10 quarterback right now like he's playing it really really well granted the place where he's not protected draw that dropped that down enough to where he's not actually a top 10 quarterback like he's playing at a really high level i think i would be a total asshole about

1:13:33Robert Mays: this if i were the right i absolutely would be and not only because we we have our quarterback

1:13:38Derrik Klassen: of the future and we and we don't care what happens this year what are like we don't have to give kirk cousins away like make it worth our while but do you think you can get a top 100 pick

1:13:48Robert Mays: oh i would ask i would ask for two i would be like we won't do it for less than a two and so

1:13:53Dave Helman: if you do that's the maybe the weirdest quarterback trade ever right a second round pick for a what how old is kirk cousins like 30 the vikings could have signed in this offseason if they wanted i I know. Yes. He's 38. 38-year-old quarterback.

1:14:08Robert Mays: What's your tone talking about 38-year-old people? I don't like that. We're talking about the time in football is different. This is different. Might as well be dead. I honestly, if I were the Vikings, I would call and ask. And if I were the Raiders, that's what I'd be asking for. And I think for the Raiders at that point, it's probably worth it.

1:14:25Derrik Klassen: I wonder. I mean, this would be a terrible way to look at it. Like, you got to turn over every stone if you're in the Vikings situation. but I wonder if there's like a reluctance to do the Thanos, like you couldn't live with your own failure. Like, Oh, it's embarrassing. Yeah.

1:14:39Robert Mays: It's really like to circle back to that is you have to, that's an admittance of something you probably do not want to admit. I think,

1:14:46Dave Helman: I think them already letting go Sam Darnold and him immediately winning the Superbowl. It's been like two weeks, but the JJ McCarthy thing already being what it is.

1:14:55Derrik Klassen: It's been one week. They didn't play. 1.25.

1:14:58Dave Helman: Okay. 1.25. He didn't play the quarter. You're right. and then the Kyler thing not going as well as you want. I'm sorry. You are beyond shame. You are beyond pride. I agree. If you want to win some football games, go and get a quarterback who can do that.

1:15:11Robert Mays: And I honestly think that would be the best way to truly maximize what the rest of the season looked like is by going out and getting Kirk Cousins. He knows the offense. He's playing at a high level. I really do think that's it. And if you're the Raiders, you're not compelled to get off your timeline. No. This is what you have chosen to do for a reason. And if I'm going to be moved off that plan, I have to be swayed to move off that plan.

1:15:34Derrik Klassen: Like, you know, with Max Crosby, it's like, okay, we might need to maximize what he's worth. Like, he's playing really well. He's an older player. If we're going to do this, we might need to do it now. Kirk Cousins, so what? This is just gravy. We are, like, why should we have to do this unless our socks are completely knocked off?

1:15:53Robert Mays: I doubt that it happens. I don't even know if they're, like, talking about it. I just think if I were the Vikings, that is a phone call I would make to try to salvage this. not salvage to try to maximize this season like you have a special defense you have a special opportunity and i would say that that's volatile and doesn't always happen with the vikings it doesn't seem to matter like they're just going to do this every single year but i still think when you have these chances you are compelled to try to maximize them and i legitimately think if i were the vikings if i had every option on the table of how i can make sure i'm giving myself the best possible chance in the 2026 season, I legitimately think Kirk Cousins is the answer to that.

1:16:31Dave Helman: You think that's crazy? No, I mean, it's him or Jonathan Taylor. And like Jonathan Taylor, obviously there's more of a runway for the future. But if you really think that you can go and do it this year, like it's obviously Kirk Cousins.

1:16:40Derrik Klassen: I hadn't thought about this, but that really highlights how much it sucks that Kyler Murray isn't going to play Monday night against the Bills. They ruled them out today. It's going to be Carson Wentz. And like, wouldn't it be nice to get one more data point? and like i mean i'm down on kyler but like if you're the vikings wouldn't it be nice to get one more game to say like can do i see something or like can we hit a couple explosives here

1:17:05Robert Mays: do you think it's telling that we didn't even mention that when we were talking about the bills right those vikings game i do think it's pretty telling because i don't think it matters i i tend to agree with you and if that's the case then i think i think we have all the data we need yeah all right before we move on we're going to take one more quick break on its black friday sale

1:17:23Derrik Klassen: doesn't start until later this month, but our listeners get in early. If you're new to Onnit, go to Onnit.com and use code TAFTS for 30 % off your first order starting today. If you've never tried Onnit, start with AlphaBrain. It's their daily nootropic built to support focus, memory, and mental clarity on days when you need to be locked in, whether that's powering through a tough workout, staying focused during back-to-back meetings, maybe exhaustively researching and prepping for an NFL podcast, just an idea. Get early access and save 30 % off your first order at onnit.com. That's O-N-N-I-T dot com and use code TAFS.

1:18:04Derrik Klassen: Some exclusions apply.

1:18:06Dave Helman: Debt is an all too familiar state of being and it's something that most of us have some experience with. Maybe it's a credit card, maybe it's student loans, maybe it's paying off a car, whatever it might be. There are so many different ways, unfortunately, to get into debt and And most of us do have some experience with it in one way or another. For me, there were two things that always did help a little bit. I love to see that number coming down. And I mostly love to know I had a date in mind. I could circle a date on a calendar and say, this is the day that this debt is going to be gone. Both of those and so much more are made better with Monarch.

1:18:39Dave Helman: Monarch's Debt Paydown Simulator and Visualizer shows you your exact debt-free date based on your real balances and payments. You can watch the timeline move. The visualizer lays out your whole payoff journey as a clear, motivating timeline. And one thing I love about that is that it takes the burden of tracking off of your plate. In other places, I felt like I always had to be checking in. Okay, is this going right? Is this on time? Is everything going the way I want it to? No more with Monarch. With quick check-ins on your laptop or your phone, you'll always know exactly where your money is with Monarch.

1:19:10Dave Helman: Most apps only tell you what you've already spent. And Monarch helps set goals, map out big purchases, and see if you're actually on track before it's too late to adjust. Write your own money story with Monarch. Use code ATHLETICFOOTBALL at Monarch.com to get your first year of Monarch Corps half off at just$50. That's 50 % off your first year at Monarch.com with code ATHLETICFOOTBALL.

1:19:34Dave Helman: Do you snore? Did somebody hand you a CPAP? And did you quietly stop using it? The mask that never quite seals, the hose tugging at you every time you roll over, a machine sitting abandoned in a closet. Excite OSA works a different way. It treats a root cause instead of managing the noise, and you use it while you're awake. 20 minutes a day, while the coffee brews, while you set your fantasy lineup. An FDA-cleared prescription device for primary snoring and mild obstructive sleep apnea. Then you go to bed like a person, nothing strapped on, nothing plugged in. In clinical studies, 90 % of patients saw a reduction in snoring.

1:20:18Dave Helman: No sleep study required. Prescribed online, shipped to your door.

1:20:24Derrik Klassen: ExciteOSA at springsleep.com slash sleep20. Code sleep20 for 20 % off. Excite OSA is an FDA-cleared prescription-only device for primary snoring and mild obstructive sleep apnea. Not for everyone. Individual results vary. Risks and benefits at springsleep.com.

1:20:53Robert Mays: Speaking of J.J. McCarthy, let's get to what we want to know coming out of Week 9. I got Giants Eagles. I want to know how excited I should be about the New York Giants for the rest of the season I've going back and just watching them and thinking about them and just what the offense has looked like beyond the performance that we've seen from Jay we saw from JJ McCarthy last week I really am encouraged by what the Giants have looked like on both sides of the ball I think Dernard Wilson's doing a really good job they've got some really interesting pieces we talked I was talking about this with charles robinson today if you look at the giants quarterback head coach offensive coordinator defensive coordinator run game coordinator passing game coordinator offensively every single one of them was somebody who was implicitly or explicitly fired last year yeah every single one which like when has that ever worked i don't know if that's ever happened whether let alone whether it's worked right and so i do think that and just in talking to some people about the dynamics there and kind of what it feels like and I do think that there is a there's kind of like a let's show them energy collectively because of that and I think that when you have a lot of people that have been head coaches offensive coordinators in the same room constructing what the offense looks like there can be egos involved it can be difficult to like all right who has the loudest voice in this room and I think that John Harbaugh has done a really good job of just setting the expectations what that's supposed to feel like they what I think John Harbaugh did a fantastic job of in Baltimore, especially at defenses where I think this really manifested the most, but you talk about either side of the ball.

1:22:26Robert Mays: He's not, doesn't do anything on either side of the ball, right? Like he is not the person that oversees either of these things. And I think in Baltimore, even if they swayed between mentalities of play caller and style, the system was always the same. The language, this was the same. They carried everything over for years and years and years from the shit they did with like Rex Ryan all the way through what they were doing with Mike McDonald. And I think that allows you to survive attrition with your coaching staff really well if you have a organizationally based system on either side of the ball.

1:22:56Robert Mays: And I think on offense, based on my understanding of it, that's what they've done with the Giants, where it's like, this is the Giants offensive system. So now, if Matt Nagy gets hired away one day or whatever, we can sustain because this is the Giants system. The Lions, I think, have done a good job of this. Like, that's, I think, when you're a CEO coach, you You have to be really good at building those systems on either side of the ball on top of doing whatever culture setting you're going to be able to do at the top of everything. And so far, I think the returns on what that has looked and felt like with the Giants has been very good.

1:23:28Derrik Klassen: I think the cynical podcaster way to look at the NFC East leading up to this week has been, all right, are the Cowboys going to catch them in late November or mid-December? Why should I feel that way after like what the Cowboys have given me? And I'm begging the Giants for a reason to genuinely believe. So I'm with you.

1:23:50Robert Mays: I'm excited to watch them. I'm just in that mode. I've talked about it a bunch. I've really enjoyed watching the team. This is not to me a, man, the Giants are like this consolation winner of the NFC East. Like, who gives a shit? That is not how I feel about this team right now. I'm looking forward to seeing what they can do post-buy and for the rest of the year. Dave, what do you want to know coming out of week nine?

1:24:11Derrik Klassen: I want to know so many things about Browns at Saints, and I mean that very sincerely, which so for starters, there's a quarterback change happening. Deshaun Watson was a late add to the concussion protocol, so it sounds like it's going to be Shadir Sanders. That is exciting for a lot of reasons, A, because he's the high profile draft pick, B, because and we said this last week leading into the Brown Steelers game. Deshaun Watson hasn't necessarily been good this year, but he has been much better than worst in the NFL. I'm curious to see. Better. He's been better. Better than worst in the NFL. What can Todd Monken and some nice receiving options and that ecosystem do for Shadir Sanders?

1:24:57Derrik Klassen: Like, can Shadir Sanders look exciting and good in this situation the way that Deshaun Watson exceeded expectations to at least some degree.

1:25:08Robert Mays: So that in itself— I am really curious about that, too, what it looks like in these circumstances. And maybe the pass protection, Deshaun Watson brought a lot of that on himself last week with the hangout of the ball, some of the pocket movement stuff, turning things down. But I do think that the offensive line has not been great for the Browns, independent of him making it worse. The run game hasn't been very good. Deshaun Watson's ability to make things happen with his legs has been really useful for the Browns' offense. Shadrur Sanders cannot do that. It's true. And so whether if you remove that element, what does this look like?

1:25:37Robert Mays: There's a lot of just elements and like points of curiosity. Like I'm, as an experiment, I'm really interested in seeing what it looks like. I'm with you on that. It's also a 2025 quarterback matchup.

1:25:47Derrik Klassen: Shuck and Shadrur. Yeah.

1:25:49Dave Helman: Yeah.

1:25:49Derrik Klassen: Yeah. And then if that wasn't good enough, what I want to know, what I want to know is, is Jordan Tyson going to play? That's what I want to know. Cause he's practicing. Seems like it. It seems like it. And buddy, Saints Browns might get their own TV in the office on Sunday if Jordan Tyson's playing. Wow. Yeah. He's deciding right now for all of us.

1:26:08Dave Helman: I mean, that's a little aggressive.

1:26:10Derrik Klassen: I'm being ridiculous, but I'm so excited. Which, and also, Derek, by the way, we had a conversation last week about, like, everybody in the NFC South has a reason for optimism except the Saints. Jordan Tyson looks like he's coming back, and Kelvin Banks is back at practice. Oh, God. Is he really? A month ahead of time. I don't think he's going to play in this game. Yeah. But the fact that Kelvin Banks might be back in somewhat short order and just, hey, let's keep an eye on the Saints. Maybe they can just kind of hang in the cut for a few weeks.

1:26:40Dave Helman: There's a more likely than not chance that the Bucs, Falcons and Panthers all lose this week.

1:26:46Derrik Klassen: If the Saints win, like, let Jordan Tyson catch like six for 65 and a touchdown and the Saints beat the Browns. He's going to get 15 targets because the Saints throw the ball 50 times a game.

1:26:58Robert Mays: That's true.

1:26:58Derrik Klassen: So that doesn't do much to fix their running issues, I don't think. But I'm a lot more excited in this game on Thursday than I was on Monday. Derek, what do you want to know coming out of Week 9?

1:27:10Dave Helman: I want to know if the Miami Dolphins offense can keep building some stuff. Their last three games have been their three highest scoring games that they've played. And obviously, it's, you know, they haven't hit 30 in any of those games. They're not blowing people out of the water or anything. But you get Caleb Duggis back in the lineup. Like they're working Chris Bell in, especially with some of the yards after catch stuff underneath. I think they understand how to use Malik Washington. Malik Willis is playing like pretty, I think for what they paid and what they thought they were trying to accomplish here.

1:27:37Dave Helman: Malik Willis has been everything they could have hoped. He is like, I think by QBR, last time I looked at it, he was like 17th. Which is perfectly fine. That is exactly what you would have hoped that he could be, especially given some of the injuries they've had at receiver. Obviously, Kayla Proctor is not playing right now. So I think he's back this week. He had a concussion, didn't he?

1:27:54Robert Mays: Yeah, last week he did not play, so we'll see this week.

1:27:57Dave Helman: But, I mean, I just think that, like, they, I don't know if this offense is, like, they're never going to be good. You're doing the meme.

1:28:03Derrik Klassen: You're doing the meme, like the podcaster who loves the Dolphins.

1:28:06Dave Helman: Listen, if they, I think that there's a world where, like, by the time we look at the end of the season, they finish, like, 24th in offensive DBA. And it's, like, given what they, given it's a bunch of rookies and a previously backup quarterback, that's pretty good success.

1:28:18Derrik Klassen: It's pretty good. I watched a lot of the Dolphins this week because we were previewing the Patriots, and I had a good time doing it. Which is all you could ask for.

1:28:25Dave Helman: They were on the hangover, and I was like, listen, man, they're imperfect, but, like, they do some stuff. And I do think that they have, they're a decent off. Like, obviously, relative to expectation, I think that they've been pretty decent. So, against a Lions defense that has been getting better, like, obviously, the secondary is getting a lot healthier, still has its imperfections, so I'm curious to see how it goes.

1:28:45Robert Mays: All right. That is all we've got for Week 9. we will be, me and Derek will be recapping Jags Ravens here in a little bit that should be available on your YouTube channel and your podcast feed, wherever you get this show while you're listening to this, so please go check that out if you're watching this show on YouTube encourage you to like, subscribe, do all of that great stuff, we will be back tomorrow, we will be back on Sunday night for now, that's all we got, appreciate you guys listening, talk to you very soon thanks for tuning in, make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating.

1:29:23Robert Mays: We'll see you next time.

1:29:49Dave Helman: gives you not just basketball, but sports at a great price, starting at just $19.99 a month. We're talking NBA, NFL, college football, college basketball, hockey, soccer, and more. And the beauty here is total flexibility. You pick your plan, you have what you want, and you get the sports channels you actually care about. No bloated packages, no fluff. So, get sports and more for a great price. Sling lets you do that.

1:30:12Derrik Klassen: Essential base package needed. Limitations are applicable. Visit Sling.com for full details. When it comes to managing money, forget the hype and look at results. Bill has a trillion dollars of secure payments powering our BillPay tools. Instead of just moving money, Bill is powering the financial operations of nearly half a million customers. So stop the guesswork and start scaling with the proven choice. Ready to talk with an expert? Visit bill.com slash proven to get started and grab a$150 gift card as a thank you. Terms and conditions apply. See offer page for details. The quarter pounder with cheese is made with 100 % fresh beef cooked when you order it.

1:30:52Derrik Klassen: Add hot crispy fries and an ice cold Coke and hopefully a lot of napkins. All for$8.