What can the surprise teams of 2024 do for an encore?

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2:06Derrik Klassen: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I am Dave Hellman, and today we are seeking to answer one of the hottest debates of really every NFL offseason, and that is whether the arrow is pointing up or down for last year's surprise playoff teams. Every season, somebody makes the postseason that you weren't quite expecting, and it falls to us to decide, is this the start of something special? Was it a fluke? Is it somewhere in between? It's one of my favorite offseason debates, and we're going to get into it with four surprise playoff teams from last year. Me and Derek Klassen got into it. Really fun show.

2:44Derrik Klassen: As training camp begins, without further ado, let's get into it.

2:53Derrik Klassen: All right, Derek, training camp rolls on. Robert is in the midst of his tour. I honestly not even 100 % sure where he is right now. I'm sure we'll be talking to him soon. But in the meantime, we're getting our feet wet, I guess. You know, like teams aren't in pads. It's the first couple of days for most teams in the league. So not a lot to react to yet. Or is there is there something on your feed that that got you excited here over the last couple of days?

3:20Dave Helman: I'm not excited in a way that's like, wow, this is going to change how I think about the season, but excited in the in the sense of it's not what I expected to see. Tucker Craft taking kick return reps for the Packers. I just Matt LaFleur is one of the most creative coaches. I fear now that he's he's pushed himself a little bit too far.

3:38Derrik Klassen: It's the perfect like Wednesday of training camp anecdote when you've got tight ends doing kick return. I saw, you know, we're getting some some word on what Travis Hunter is doing. So the news is flying as we dip into this, but still want to talk some big picture stuff here before things really get rolling. And I loved this category when we came up for it. I was really happy that I got to do this with you because it's a rite of passage in the NFL every year. At least one, maybe two, or in the case of today, as many as four teams make the playoffs out of nowhere. It's a little bit of a surprise or in some cases an outright shock.

4:19Derrik Klassen: And then we, as the football viewing public, get to spend most of the next year debating whether it was a sign of things to come or a one-off. And it's it's one of my favorite arguments every summer is going back and forth about whether it was fluky, whether it's the emergence of a new dynasty, which is what the fans of those teams would prefer to have you believe. So we're going to get to the bottom of all of that. And like I said, some years, maybe it's one or two teams. We got a lot to choose from in 2025 because there were a lot of surprise stories for teams to be exact. We're going to go through all of them, two in the NFC, two in the AFC.

5:00Derrik Klassen: That would be Washington, the LA Chargers, the Denver Broncos and the Minnesota Vikings. We're going to start with the team that made it the furthest out of all of those. The Washington Commanders did, in fact, reach championship weekend last year. Jaden Daniels, one of the most exciting storylines of the 2024 season. And I'll just throw it to you really generally, man. can they live up to that measure of success do you think the arrows pointed up do you think it's

5:28Dave Helman: going down I think they they're the most fascinating team because I think they're the easiest to get excited about obviously because when you have a quarterback who immediately plays at a pro bowl or maybe better level then yeah it's it's incredibly easy to get excited about especially the way that he plays right like instantly being the best athlete on the field some of what he was doing throwing down the field and also generally just not making mistakes the way that you see from a rookie like a lot of the best rookie seasons you'll still see them make some mistakes despite some of the highs but that really wasn't the case with Daniels it was a lot of giving you the high floor and giving you the high ceiling so it's very easy to buy into them from that sense but I also feel like they were the most convoluted answer because while I feel like the arrow might still be pointed up for 2025 when you look at the roster like I still think they can be a good team in 2025 I think they're gonna have a lot of questions to answer moving into 2026.

6:21Dave Helman: And the reason I say that is you mentioned this on the show that we did maybe a week ago by the time this comes out. This roster is incredibly old and they're not just old. They're all about to be out of the door. Like so on defense, Bobby Wagner, Jonathan Jones, Dietrich Wise, Von Miller, Cleland Farrell are all 30 years or older and they're all going to be free agents next year. Noah Igbenogany is not going to be 30, but he's also going to be a free agent next year on offense Debo Samuel Zach Ertz Austin Eckler Noah Brown Andrew Wiley are all 30 plus and going to be free agents running back Brian Robinson is going to be 27 and also a free agent like they just so many of the guys who are starting for them outside of like one or two star players are old and probably about to be out of the door so 2025 it might be fine but 2026 I'm not sure if

7:07Derrik Klassen: the arrow is pointing up anymore I think that's a really interesting point for the purposes of this because it's an open-ended question. Like, is the arrow pointed up because you think they're going to be good this season? Is the arrow pointed up because they are, of all the teams we're going to talk about, they have probably the most promising thing from last season, which is a rookie quarterback playing like a star on a cheap contract. You don't have to worry about his cap hit for a long, long, long time. So in that sense, it feels like the arrows pointed up just generally for Washington because and we'll see how the season plays out.

7:47Derrik Klassen: But I feel relatively confident saying you're going to be happy about building around Jaden Daniels for at least the next three, five, hopefully longer years. But yeah, that is a valid point. And it's why I'm a little bit down on this version of the Washington commanders. I mean, this is this is the early bird special like senior citizen discount NFL team. When I was looking at that for a previous show we did, okay, Jaden is obvious. And to be fair, he is the most important, but scan around the rest of this roster for a building block. You're excited about who is also young. And I'll even, I'll let you have Laramie Tunsil because he's only 30 offensive tackles can play for a while.

8:31Derrik Klassen: But other than that, we're talking about Sam Cosme, Mikey Saner still. And, and I don't know, is there anybody else? I mean, Terry McLaurin, he's turning 30, as we have already talked about. And it's worth pointing out, the commanders officially put him on the reserve did not report list on Wednesday. So that holdout could end at any time, but that's worth considering as well. So there's not a ton to feel good about in the big, big picture other than the most important thing, which is Jaden. So that's it's an interesting thing to sort of balance out.

9:05Dave Helman: And even Cosme is coming off of injury. like and so we don't know how good he's going to be or when he's even going to be able to start to play next season so they're just in a very weird spot because like to me a lot of the other building blocks that you would want to look at are Josh Connerly at tackle who I think was a really good prospect but he's a rookie so until we like truly see him play it's there's really no certainty there and then I think last year you know they ended up drafting uh Drazon Newton at defensive tackle and he showed some flashes and I know that he wasn't fully healthy for a lot of last season But I don't think he showed necessarily enough to where we can bank that he's going to be like a really, really good building block for them moving forward.

9:45Dave Helman: And then, like you said, a lot of the other best players on the roster, whether it's Larry Mechunsel or whether it's maybe a guy like Frankie Louvoo or guys like that, like they're pretty much older. It's really just outside of Sam Cosme, like you mentioned, it's kind of Mike Sander still who I do believe is awesome. Like I think he's a really, really good player. And I think he's so fun. And I'm glad this year. I will say, I think I still have some questions about how good the outside corners are going to be for this team. And we can we can talk about that a little bit. But I think the fact that they added more bodies there and are now going to allow senior still to play in the nickel again, which I think is even though he was fine outside last year, I think he's at his best going to be a nickel for them.

10:23Dave Helman: So I think that alone might help them out on defense a little bit.

10:27Derrik Klassen: It's fun. Like I and OK, let's drill down on this because let's let's just talk about 2025. Like you mentioned, Jonathan Jones, they traded for Marshawn Lattimore probably didn't play as well as you would hope when you trade for a guy of that caliber. But he was coming off of injury. Maybe he can be a healthier, better version of himself for at least another season. So even if we both agree that the future looks a little weird for the commanders, do you think they can be a better team than what we saw last year? I don't know like here's the way I would say and this is kind of a cop-out you remember when the

11:07Dave Helman: Bengals made their 2021 Super Bowl run and then the year after that they were like they might be a better team in 2022 but they might not win as many games and then that's exactly what happened that's kind of how I feel about Washington where I think there's a chance that they are a better team the defense is slightly better the offense is a little bit more consistent and I think maybe has more options um which to me the offense being better is mostly about the run game being better outside of jayden daniels obviously when he's involved it's really good but they're pure just hand the ball to the back run game was was pretty bad last year and so i think if they fix that they could be better but with the improvements at offensive line i think that's possible i just i would be shocked if they win 12 games again and i think a lot of that to me comes down to like i think they can be a top five six offense again and i think maybe daniels can improve the offensive line can get better I just don't see how this defense is that much better you know they were kind of like a slightly below middle of the pack defense last year I just kind of struggled to see them being much better than that this year and I know they added some bodies in the secondary and that that could be useful but they lost a lot in the front like they lost Jonathan Allen they lost Dante Fowler and they didn't to me replace them with players that are as good as as those guys And I think that that's especially true with the outside pass rush.

12:22Dave Helman: So I just I would be shocked if this defense is any better than like the 16th best in the league.

12:28Derrik Klassen: Dorrance Armstrong is a great example of like like you talk about people getting promoted to the level of their own incompetence. And not to suggest he's incompetent, but like you but you play to the level where you like you outplay your station. Like if Dorrance Armstrong is your third or fourth, the end and like a key piece of your special teams and he gets in there on third down, he can be a guy that has like eight, nine sacks. And on a good team, you're like, hey, man, don't sleep on Dorrance Armstrong. He's really, really good. But then you look at the commanders this year and it's like, well, outside of 36 year old Von Miller, who were hoping for the best, I guess, if Dorrance Armstrong is like the centerpiece of your edge rush, all of a sudden I'm a lot less excited.

13:12Derrik Klassen: You know what I mean?

13:12Dave Helman: I couldn't agree more like there and there's a lot of pass rushers that are like that around the league like another one that I've has always fallen into that bucket to me is like Uchenna Nuosu like he is if he's your third best pass rusher your pass rush unit is awesome if he's your best pass rusher you're probably having to scheme up a lot of stuff you're probably getting a lot of hustle sacks because of either defensive scheme or your coverage is really really good and that's an okay way to live but I don't think teams want to and I think the difference between like Uchenna Nwosu now with with Seattle and what I think we're getting with Dorrance Armstrong and Washington Seattle has like five other guys who are also quality guys that they can put next to Uchenna Nwosu and really generate some pass rush especially like Leonard Williams at defensive tackle playing the way that he did I just don't see that with with Washington like it's Dorrance Armstrong and then there's a cliff until you get to like you know 30 some odd year old Von Miller who I just don't think has that much juice left at this point and then even the defensive tackles Again, like unless Trazon Newton is really takes a leap this year in his second year, which is possible.

14:14Dave Helman: I just it's hard for me to imagine who is the other sack getter on this team.

14:18Derrik Klassen: This is something I remember all of us covering pretty extensively in March when it happened. But parting ways with Jonathan Allen. I mean, that makes that makes sense if you view him as a declining player and not worth the money that he's costing. but immediately replacing him with Javon Kinlaw on a, a smaller deal, but like not a crazy smaller deal. Like they still made a pretty significant spend in Javon Kinlaw. That's like, okay, I get it. You're, you're saving money, but is, is this an improvement? I mean, if, if Johnny Newton takes off, then maybe it's a moot point, but so many things the commanders did this year, other than the Tunsil trade, which I understand.

15:00Derrik Klassen: And I think it's a good idea. so many of the other things they did I'm just like well this just feels like a different version of

15:06Dave Helman: what you were already doing yeah yeah I think with the Kinlaw thing they will try to tell you that he's younger he's a little bit cheaper and you know Jonathan Allen really struggled with injuries last year and when you're an older guy maybe that's going to be a problem again moving forward I don't know man I'd rather still pay up a couple more million bucks and get 12 games out of Jonathan Allen that I would you know paying Javon Kinlaw what they did in free agency and so this is a team again where I just outside of Jaden Daniels being a really really special which I think he clearly has shown the ability to do that it's just hard for me to see what are the other ceiling raising pieces on this team but I think that's why I feel okay if I'm a commanders fan because I have him yeah I'm just fine betting that he will take another step forward and play at

15:58Derrik Klassen: a similar level to he did last year. What we're not going to do is overreact to training camp reps, but I saw everybody in, in DC was losing their minds on Wednesday morning. Cause Jaden's first attempt of training camp was a dime to Debo Samuel for a, for a touchdown, which yeah, if he's doing stuff like that. And if Debo Samuel's on the field, there is a world where this team is really good. Like if they, if they have good injury luck and if Jaden's great and And Debo maybe not turns back the clock, but at least just doesn't fall off the cliff. I could see this team following up at success. But the other point I wanted to make, Derek, is just that they got to the NFC title game, man.

16:40Derrik Klassen: Like that doesn't leave a lot of room for improvement. You know, like if we're talking about whether the arrow is up, that means making it back to the final four or potentially going further. I would say, you know, if you made it back to that game and it was a closer game than what we saw against Philly, I guess that's an improvement, but like for this to be a better season, officially speaking, I mean, there's just not a whole lot of margin for error. And that's that's a big part of why I'm down on the commanders is just what are the odds that you follow that up with another trip to the conference title game?

17:12Dave Helman: That's a really good point. If we are taking is the arrow pointed up like very literally, they would have to win 13 plus games and at least like run the final four game down to the wire, which it's just hard to predict. the team is going to do that because that's such a high bar to clear. And when I look at this Washington team, I struggle to imagine them doing it. I think it's a lot more likely that they don't win as many close games as they did last year. They're about the same quality of team and they end up winning nine, 10 games. They get into the wild card and they have an OK playoff run.

17:46Dave Helman: And there's nothing wrong with that. They don't have to be the next dynasty for this to have been like a failure. like they're not a failure if they don't win 13 plus games and go back to the to the conference championship like I think you know the Texans are obviously the the biggest point that teams are going to look to for teams like this and like obviously last year was disappointing for Houston but they still won 10 games and they they still won their division and obviously it was a weak division but I like I think they're still in a fine spot for as disappointing as last year felt I think we're going to get to a similar point with Washington where again 9-10 wins they're a wild card team and we're going to feel like it was bad.

18:22Dave Helman: But if you step back and be like, man, we have one of the best quarterbacks in the league on a rookie contract and we're still able to win 10 games, it's a pretty good spot for us to be in moving forward.

18:32Derrik Klassen: If Jaden plays at the level required for that to happen and they get back to the playoffs, that's that's an unmitigated success, which is I think my landing spot on this is I think my arrow for the 2025 season is probably pointing downward, but in the big landscape of things, I feel really good about Washington just because I believe that Jaden Daniels is a guy you can build around for a long time.

18:59Dave Helman: Yeah. The arrow is probably not pointing up compared to last year, but compared to the last couple of decades of Washington football, it is way up.

19:08Derrik Klassen: That's a, that's a really good point worth making too. Like let's, let's not take the fun out of this just yet like the point is to win another lombardi for this organization but let's just enjoy that this is a franchise that we want to talk about in july and august for a change all right up next we're going to dive into two afc teams but before we do that we're going to take a quick break look we've all got a ton of passwords and we all have our own password related struggles for me the thing that i just can't stand the most when it comes to passwords is being sure that i've got one remembered.

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21:58Derrik Klassen: To learn more, go to mod.com. Fill out your intake form, meet with a licensed provider, and if approved, ModAlert ships straight to your door. Go to mod.com to get started. That's M-O-D dot com. This summer, JBL is on a mission to help you tune into what you love. Audiobooks, podcasts, and everything in between with JBL's live headphones. These headphones are perfect because of their high-res sound, making your fave stories and voices come alive with so much detail, exactly the way they were made to be heard. Plus, they have 80 hours of battery life, so you can binge without pressing pause all summer long.

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22:48Derrik Klassen: All right, Derek, I knew going in that we were aligned about the commanders because we've talked about them before. I have no idea how you feel about this next team, And that would be the L.A. Chargers. Quick refresher, if you forgot. A lot of people down on L.A. in the first year of Jim Harbaugh, which clearly was a mistake because just like he's done everywhere else, he got immediate results with the Chargers. They go 11 and 6. They get the AFC's number six seed in last year's playoffs. Don't ask them how it went against the Texans in that wildcard game, but still a very nice season considering the expectations going in.

23:25Derrik Klassen: My question for you is, can the Chargers follow that up? Do you think the arrow is pointed up or down?

23:31Dave Helman: I think the arrow is pointed up, but not as high as I wanted it to be. And like, so I think the way I would frame it is like, I think the arrow is pointing up on like a 10 degree curve, right? Like it's it's kind of going up, but these are very gradual gains. They might be a slightly better team. But I really thought this was a team that if they were ambitious, could have been a little bit better. And to me, that mostly hinges on the defense and the fact that I rallied for them to trade for Jalen Ramsey and they didn't. And that to me was like really, really frustrating because I think when I look at this defense, you know, Khalil Mack is still really good.

24:06Dave Helman: I like some of the other young players like, you know, Derwin James is still good. But Dayon Henley at linebacker, I think, is really promising. I think some of the young DBs like Cam Hart are kind of interesting, but it still felt to me like they lacked some firepower. And I think you saw that towards the end of last season where I think they're a well coached unit, but I think they were a little bit limited in what they could do. Like, I think when you look at all the best defenses in the league right now, it's a lot of these two high pressures. It's a lot of simulated. They're able to get to man coverage when they really want to.

24:37Dave Helman: The Chargers couldn't really do as much of that. You know, they were a little bit more vanilla. Almost all of their pressures were these cover three, three deep, three under, just kind of the the stock standard way to run like fire zones. And I just it felt like it was a very well coached unit, but not necessarily a creative one or one that didn't have firepower. And to me, the fact that they didn't address that irritated me a little bit. But then I look at the offense and it's like, well, if two out of three of signing Mekhi Becton, drafting Trey Harris and drafting O'Marrion Hampton work out, then they're probably better on offense.

25:11Dave Helman: And this team is a playoff team again.

25:13Derrik Klassen: it's funny to try to find the line between being patient and being I guess you could say complacent or basically not being aggressive enough because I do admire the way that Jim Harbaugh and Joe Ortiz didn't get out over their skis right like you have an 11 win season you get to the playoffs you have a franchise quarterback there's plenty of reason to be excited and and Nobody would blame the Chargers if they splashed a bunch of cash just to say they did it and try to turn this team into something better and bigger than it is. And they just didn't do that. Like, I mean, they made a couple of signings.

25:54Derrik Klassen: They didn't do nothing. But this team does not look drastically, drastically different from what we saw last year. Like the biggest if you're just doing the macro view of the Chargers, the biggest thing is just that Joey Bosa is not there anymore. And I'm not trying to sell you that that's this game changing loss at this point in Joey Bosa's career, but they were just willing to wait. And I'm so curious about, like I said, the line that you draw there, because they're going to lead the league in cap space for 2026. But how many years can you say that about a team and how much does it matter? And are they going to look back and be like, man, with a couple more additions, we really could have been something.

26:35Derrik Klassen: Maybe if we trade for Jalen Ramsey or if we're willing to sign a couple more pricey veterans. I'm curious about how you walk that line. Yeah, cap space is cool.

26:44Dave Helman: I think good players are cooler. So that to me is like, again, I I can respect why they wanted to keep the course, especially with again, the defense was good last year and it was a lot of young players. So I understand why they didn't want to do much in the mix there. but really all they're changing about their defense was they let Puna Ford walk in favor of lesser and younger players.

27:05Derrik Klassen: You're absolutely right. Puna and, and going across town to the Rams too, like not even leaving LA hurts. Yeah.

27:12Dave Helman: You probably could have kept the same apartment and he was, and he was all good. Um, but like all they did to replace him was signed to Sean hand, who was like a fine rotational player, but not really someone who I think can, can step in and take the reps that Puna Ford was taking. And then they drafted Jamari Caldwell out of Oregon, who I I think, you know, I enjoyed as a prospect, but I just don't know if he's going to immediately give you the run defense that Puno Ford was giving. And then on the on the outside at corner, they signed Dante Jackson, who you hope can give you like solid veteran cornerback to play kind of what they got from Christian Fulton earlier last season.

27:43Dave Helman: And you just hope that he remains healthy, healthier than Fulton. But that, again, is not that's not a firepower move. That's why I kept saying I wanted them to sign Ramsey because I think he just would have fit so much of what they needed. I guess their thinking is just that if we can bring back all the same players and it's a lot of young guys that will allow Minter and the rest of the defensive coach coaching staff to iterate the scheme a little bit and that will be the thing that can take us from the eighth best defense to the maybe fifth or fourth and really kick us up a notch but I just it still doesn't feel like

28:14Derrik Klassen: that's enough to me I don't know well here's my hypothesis and I would love to get your thoughts on this because this is my guess for Jim Harbaugh's solution to this problem. And it ties into his entire ethos as a head coach, like the way that Michigan played football, the way that Stanford played football. And it seems to me that Jim Harbaugh thinks if we can run the damn football, a lot of this stuff is going to matter a hell of a lot less. Like we're going to be a more balanced offense. We're going to stay on the field. Our defense will play less snaps. And also, if we're doing our job right, they'll be playing with the lead in the second half of a lot of games.

28:55Derrik Klassen: I mean, this is football one on one stuff, but it matches the way that Jim Harbaugh prefers to play football. And I just I was looking back through this and the Makai Becton signing combined with Omari and Hampton. I mean, if that's just not a flashing neon sign saying like, hey, we're going to try to be better at power football. I don't know what is because the chargers had a bottom five rushing success rate in the league last year. They got stuffed Derek on 20 % of their attempts. Like one out of five is preposterous. They couldn't get past the line of scrimmage. Also a bottom five in the league number.

29:33Derrik Klassen: So those two things specifically, if they hit and I'm a little worried about the offensive line because the Becton thing is cool, but they're still projected to play two of the same three interior guys on this line. Like Zion Johnson might be playing center. Now Bradley Bozeman is still there. Those guys are responsible for a third of the sacks that Justin Herbert took and a third of the pressures that he got last year. So I don't buy that this can fix the offensive line in its entirety, but if it makes it better and more importantly, if it makes the running game better, maybe that just has a ripple effect on the entire rest of the team.

30:12Dave Helman: and I and if it does work that way I think it would because I think such an underrated thing about the way that we talk about football and why teams are good is just being able to be in the down and distances that you want and so bringing up that that stat where they just get stuffed all the time and you're in second and tens and second and twelves more than a lot of other teams in the NFL it's hard to live that way and so if they can get into more second and sevens second and sixes life is going to be easier but I'm kind of with you on the interior offensive line like I I think they needed to make a swing like the Becton swing, but he played well for one year in the best offensive line environment in football.

30:51Dave Helman: And now he's going to go play in a Chargers interior offensive line that I think has a lot of questions because I think Zion Johnson has been really up and down as a guard for a lot of his career. And I think there's this idea that moving him to center is going to help a lot of things and have this cascading effect. But until I see it I'm not gonna believe it and then even with Becton like again I understand the the gamble that they're trying to take but until I see him succeed someone that's not in Philadelphia I have a hard time like really fully believing it so Marion Hampton is really the only part of this that I have very few quibbles about like I think he's an awesome player and I think he's gonna be really really good and actually an underrated thing is I also think Najah Harris is better than any of the backs that they had last year so got two guys who are better but I just the interior

31:37Derrik Klassen: is to me a lot of TBD. I'm glad you mentioned that. And I honestly, I thought you might make fun of me because Najee, he did not live up to the billing of being drafted where he was in Pittsburgh. That certainly wasn't all on him, but I don't feel like that was a signing that moved the needle for a lot of people based on what he did in Pittsburgh. I was curious to learn though, Najee Harris finished 10th in the league last year in yards after contact, which again, if you don't love your offensive line, that's a useful stat. And that combined with Hampton, who was obviously a bigger back, a guy that you expect to be physical, who also has some big play speed.

32:19Derrik Klassen: It really feels like Jim Harbaugh is counting on his running game to fix a lot of the woes with his team. And I'm curious to see if it's that simple.

32:28Dave Helman: I think it can be. And especially too, because Najee Harris isn't explosive, but he's obviously, again, you bring up yards after contact he's a good like grinder type of back which i think a greg roman offense always needs and hampton can also do some of that he's a bigger guy who you know 220 pounds 225 pounds but hampton is also explosive like he's a very good like if he gets into the second level he can really you know hit some home runs and i think that was also part of this often uh element of this offense that was completely missing last year where outside of hey justin herbert just made the best throw that we've seen this week this just wasn't an explosive offense in any way and so if they can get one more explosive run a game just one more 15 yard pop than they were getting compared to to last year I think that could also go a long way so again a lot of this comes down to how do you really feel about the interior offensive line but if they are 10 percent better and then the backs are who we think that they are I can see the vision for the offense not being good but they were like 25th in DVOA or something last year.

33:30Dave Helman: And they can be like above average this year.

33:33Derrik Klassen: I laughed when you said that the arrow was maybe like 10 degrees upward, because in my notes, I just have. It feels like the arrows firmly just pointed in a straight line. Like it's not moving up. It's not moving down. This feels like a similar team. I mean, if the run game really is this high powered thing, then all bets are off. And we haven't mentioned the pass catchers, probably because again it feels like a completely similar situation I mean Ladd McConkie's freaking awesome Mike Williams just announced his retirement like 12 hours into training camp I guess we're going to get on the Quentin Johnston merry-go-round one more time and that's so that that's the other thing I would say if the running game takes off then this could be a substantially better team or if they hit on a couple of these weapons I mean if Trey Harris is a is a dog from day one that's huge or even you know I'll throw in the tight end they drafted or Rondae Gadsden I'm not banking on a fifth round pick being good from day one but if for some reason he is if the calculus in your passing game changes then I'm willing to to feel different about this team but looking at it on paper before I've seen a lot of these guys play this feels essentially like the same team which they made the playoffs so that's not bad but I just don't think they're in a better spot than they were last year.

34:55Dave Helman: Neither do I like I would have wanted another piece here, especially one to be a little bit more explosive. And part of that is not their fault. Like it wasn't a very good free agent class to go get a receiver like that. I mean, you know, Robert has made the joke before that maybe the best receiver on the free agent market was Josh Palmer, who they let walk because they figured they could just go get a Josh Palmer. And so I think their hope is that Trey Harris can just be as good as as Josh Palmer, which, you know, Palmer's a useful player, but that's not that high of a bar to clear for a guy that you drafted, you know, around 50th overall.

35:26Dave Helman: So I think that that could happen. It's just I think they I think what is almost more important is they need one of, you know, can Darius Davis be a better, you know, explosive player for you? They just drafted Keandre Lambert Smith. Can he give you a little bit more pop in the passing game? Like just somebody to unlock Herbert's arm down the field, I think would would go a long way.

35:46Derrik Klassen: We're getting a little bit ahead of ourselves, But I was curious because the Chargers are projected to lead the league in cap space next year. And we did this whole song and dance last year where like, oh, maybe they'll maybe they'll go get T Higgins. And how much fun would that be? The projected receiver free agent class right now for 2026. I mean, the names worth being interested in are like George Pickens, Alec Pierce, Romeo Dobbs, which like good players. But are these signings that are going to Palmer bin? Right. Like, are they are they going to completely change your opinion of the Chargers offense?

36:23Derrik Klassen: I don't know. So I was looking at that and I was like, I don't know, Jim, Joe, it might be on you to go find these guys in the draft, man, because I'm not sure all of this free agent help that we daydream about is coming.

36:34Dave Helman: Yeah, I don't think it is either. I honestly think, you know, to go back to the run game, I think it's more likely the passing game gets better by, again, virtue of being in more second and sixes than second and elevens. And like that, that's just kind of going to be it.

36:49Derrik Klassen: And that is realistic. I do. I do think for the record, I'm I'm really excited to watch Amari and Hampton and this offense do their thing, because Jim Harbaugh does know a thing or two about running the ball. But for me, it's just it's an arrow pointed firmly sideways. There was another surprise wildcard team in the AFC West. The Denver Broncos got into the field on the last day of the season. And they beat the Chiefs backups, not to not to, like, take credit away from them. But I think I feel like that's useful context to remember. I think we were talking about that a week or so ago where the Bengals, Dolphins and Broncos were all hope, you know, watching each other's scores there on the last day.

37:28Derrik Klassen: And the Broncos just housed the Chiefs backups to get into the playoffs. Just saying, you know, the making the playoffs doesn't necessarily mean that you you got in there comfortably. I guess we'll say, but a playoff appearance is a playoff appearance nonetheless. And I'll say this, Derek, this is the team that I changed my opinion about the most drastically while I was researching for this show. I came away from from looking over the Broncos situation with a wildly different take than I had going in. So I'm curious what your thoughts are before I talk about mine.

38:08Dave Helman: i think they're also they're also a really difficult one so i think the defense can be really really good i i think there's i think there's a good chance that like if i were to try to predict the top five defenses right now i would probably put the denver broncos but i look at the offense and i actually kind of think there's a better chance that they're equal or worse than they to what they were a year ago. And I know they've added Evan Ingram. They drafted a third round receiver. You draft R.J. Harvey, who you hope gives you a little bit more pop out of the backfield. But I just. Their offensive line was really, really healthy last year, and I think that that went a long way for them.

38:50Dave Helman: And then I also just when I watch, even though I think Sean Payton is a really good coach and a really good play caller and all that stuff, when I watch what the offense has to be with Bo Nix where it's a lot of RPO it's a lot of sprinting him out it's a lot of quick game it's a lot of like accommodating to him I think unless he takes another step I'm a little bit worried they're gonna run out of road when it matters so this was a team that I think I really want to buy in on because of how the good the defense can be but I think I'm like slightly less excited about the offense than I want to be.

39:27Derrik Klassen: So I went into this with a similar opinion, right? And I like just full transparency. Like I didn't love Bo Nix as a college prospect. And you look at the talent on that offense and I think it's easy to be kind of down on it. I don't think that's a hot take. I think a lot of people probably feel that way, but looking into it, I like where the Broncos are at a lot, man, and I'm not trying to pick them to be a Super Bowl team, but there is a lot more here to like than I would have initially guessed. And yeah, let's start in the obvious place, because assuming good health, the Broncos added so much firepower to a defense that was arguably already the best in the NFL.

40:14Derrik Klassen: I mean, they led the league in sacks third and scoring defense, phenomenal rushing defense. And then they go out and they add one of my favorite players in football, Dre Greenlaw, who's just in the dictionary next to the term tone setter at linebacker. Like he's going to be in the middle of what was already a nasty defense. Just just being an asshole, basically, like he hits like a freight train. He's got some attitude to him. I just that is one of my favorite marriages of player with unit in the entire league. And if that wasn't good enough, they took to tell a no who funga out of San Francisco as well, who, you know, it's been up and down for him.

40:56Derrik Klassen: There was an injury after the all pro selection. But I would say at the very least, he's got a nose for the football. Like he's got a penchant for being in the right place at the right time, which is a valuable thing when you already have a talented secondary. And oh, by the way, the first round pick plays corner as well. So that's just a lot of stuff to add to a unit that was already really, really good.

41:17Dave Helman: Yeah, if I were just looking at units again, like the defensive side of the ball is just I think what makes the Greenlaw and Hufanga signings to me really exciting. And you mentioned this, obviously, with Greenlaw. It's not just that they are good players who are upgrades. It's that for as good as I thought this Denver defense was last year, they weren't that violent. You know, like Patrick Sertan is obviously defensive player of the year, so he was incredible and gave a lot of gave a lot of help to the rest of the secondary for being that good. And then I think the front played really well and was coached really well in terms of some of their pressures.

41:52Dave Helman: But they just as a team didn't have that much violence to them. And I think when you bring in guys like Dre Greenlaw and Talano Hufanga, who are just car crash dummy type of players who, you know, when they were both in San Francisco, we thought that they were the most violent defense in football with like D 'Amico Ryan's calling the plays a couple of years ago. So I think bringing that type of attitude and then hopefully shoring up the nickel spot with a guy like Jadai Barron, who not to the same degree, but I do think is a guy who's very willing to put, you know, get his nose in there and get dirty and play that way.

42:23So I'm pretty excited about them playing in a way that they didn't before,

42:28Dave Helman: because obviously when you have the pressure, you have a guy like Patrick Chetan at corner. I think that goes a long way. But I think really that, you know, piece that is the cherry on top is just kicking ass. And I think now they can kick some ass.

42:43Derrik Klassen: Attitude, violence. Yeah, I mean, like I just I think Dre Greenlaw personifies that. And we talk about it all the time. Defense is a little volatile. Maybe it's harder to predict unit or year to year success on defense. But assuming relative good health, this is a group that you can routinely count on to hold the opposition below 24 points. And that I mean, that right there is such a great place to start if you're trying to sell me on a team. And then the other thing is, okay, the offense on paper does not get you super excited, but I just think there's a baseline of functionality there. And I'll start with the offensive line.

43:29Derrik Klassen: You're right. They were healthy and you can't count on that. But assuming it doesn't fall apart, assuming it's something similar, what a great, what a, again, what a great starting point for a team with a young quarterback. Derek do you realize Bo Nix dropped back to pass 640 times last year and he was pressured 83 times

43:55Dave Helman: yes yes I did it was like him I don't remember I looked up something similar to that but it's like him and Baker Mayfield are kind of in their own tier of like being able to kind of hold on to the ball because obviously like Tua doesn't get pressured a lot either but also the ball comes out of Tua's hand in like 2.1 seconds so he's kind of not not completely the same and I mean there is

44:15Derrik Klassen: there's a quick game element to the Broncos offense but there's also just plenty of times where Bo Nix has as much time as he wants exactly and and again I think that's where it gets

44:25Dave Helman: complicated because I do think some of that is Sean Payton and also some of it is the way that Bo Nix plays he's like a decent quick game passer they run a lot of RPOs which get charted as passes obviously and then balls out immediately so it doesn't can't really get pressured on those in a lot of cases they sprint him out a lot which I think is helpful they also even though the run game was bad they committed to it in such a way that they were able to get really good like under center play action like seven and eight man protection looks so I think that helped the the pass protection unit a lot so all of those parts of it I expect to stay it's just I would be shocked if the the unit is as healthy as they were last year and that's not even like oh I think these players are injury prone it's just like you don't get that lucky two years in a row a lot of

45:08Derrik Klassen: the side i'll i'll even meet you halfway there but don't you think between sean payton's prowess as a play caller and an offense designer and bo nix's own natural ability i would think you can probably mitigate that like i think and and and to be clear when bo nix was pressured it didn't it didn't look good like and like i do think that was a key element of his success was just that he had time to throw and i do just want to say this because it's too fun to leave unsaid bo nicks was pressured less than five different guys who only started like nine or ten games like bo nicks bo nicks was pressured less than mason rudolph who only started eight games for the titans so that is a nice ace up your sleeve but if the broncos were to lose guys and if they were have to shuffle were to need to shuffle the offensive line like there there's boots there's quick games there's misdirection and Bo Nix has the athleticism to do all of that stuff so I don't want him to have to live in that world but I also don't think he's the type of quarterback where if the offensive line is compromised for a few weeks it just completely renders him useless like I think

46:29Dave Helman: Sean Payton could coach him out of that I think I agree with that I think to me it's just like I don't expect this unit to bottom out to be like I don't expect them to randomly be the 24th best offense in the league last year because of some of this stuff that might regress I think to me it's more about so they were from week to be fair to Bo Nix from week seven and on so I'm cutting out the first like month and a half of the season where he just was not very good from week seven and on the Denver Broncos were 11th in total EPA as an offense. Do you think it's more or less likely that they're like, do you think they're going to be better than that or worse than that?

47:04Dave Helman: I would guess worse. That's kind of where I fall back to. Like, I think it's just more likely. And again, I don't expect it to be 24th, but I think there's just a better shot that they're the 14th or 15th best offense as opposed to the seventh.

47:17Derrik Klassen: I will counter with this. What if, and it does feel like a what if like I I don't feel great about this but very similar to the Chargers what if the Broncos can run the ball worth a damn this year because I do you know we talk so much about the Broncos O-line and it's kind of mystifying right because they were healthy most people consider them a top three unit maybe even second best behind the Eagles Ben Powers and Quinn Miners are talked about as as the best guard duo they didn't run the ball worth a damn last year like they weren't terrible but considering this is one of the best O-lines in the league it also just wasn't that great and I even I went back and watched some games yesterday while I was getting ready for this sure you can upgrade the backs from Javante Williams and and maybe R.J.

48:11Derrik Klassen: Harvey is that guy. He's a very exciting player, but I'm going back and looking at it. And for the most part, it's not as if the O-line is kicking ass and Javante Williams wasn't getting anything done like Javante Williams. He's you know, he's coming off of injury a couple of years ago. Maybe he doesn't have as much juice as you would prefer. But in most of the stuff I watched, he was getting what was blocked for him. So I wonder if it's like yes RJ Harvey could help but maybe it's also on the Broncos O-line as good as they are to to take it up another notch or for Sean Payton and Zach Streif to scheme it better this time

48:49Dave Helman: around and and that's kind of where it comes back to like I think the way that Sean Payton runs his offense it's a little bit easier for him to not hide the offensive line but make them better than they are in the passing game with again some of the RPOs some of the quick game the sprint outs the play action, all that stuff. I think with the way that he wants to operate his run game, where it is a little bit more downhill, they want to use moving pieces and they want to really use like every run concept under the sun. Like that's kind of always been a thing with Sean Payton is that he wants to run a little bit of everything.

49:19Dave Helman: You just kind of have to be talented on the offensive line to do that. And I just don't think outside of kind of Quinn miners and maybe Garrett Bowles, they really have that caliber of firepower on the offensive line. And then you mentioned the backs. I know a lot of people really like RJ Harvey, especially like fantasy people love him the combination of him and jk dobbins doesn't really excite me because to me like at this stage of jk dobbins's career just doesn't have the juice that i think he had early on and obviously that's unfortunate right a lot of that was was injuries um and then rj harvey i get that he's really explosive and peyton has done really well with guys who would like that um in his offenses i struggled with harvey a little bit coming out of college because i i struggle with running backs who to me look a little bit blind at times and want to bounce when they shouldn't.

50:04Dave Helman: And RJ Harvey really runs like that. And maybe that's a welcome change compared to Javante Williams, who was just running, you know, straight in and object estimate who were just running straight into the back of guards all of last season. But I just I don't know if it's as immediate and upgrade as a lot of people seem to think.

50:19Derrik Klassen: No, I think that's fair. And the stat that I found is and I don't think it's a coincidence. RJ Harvey had 54 explosive of runs at UCF last year. And if I had to guess, Sean Payton is probably looking for a back that can make guys miss and get more than what's blocked for him. Like, you know, there, there are definitely runs on the Broncos season where you go look and, and Javante Williams is shoestring tackled after seven or eight yards on a play where that, you know, that could have been much bigger if he just makes that one last guy miss maybe RJ Harvey is that guy, but the obvious rebuttal to that is like, so what?

50:58Derrik Klassen: Everybody has 54 explosive runs at UCF, like explosive runs in college football. Don't really do a whole lot for me. So I get the vision, but I'm with you. I, I, I would need to see it. Like I I'm with you, like JK Dobbins and RJ Harvey. It doesn't get my juices going as much as like Omari and Hampton does for the chargers.

51:19Dave Helman: Yeah, that's a great way to put it. And so it's like to try to put a bow on the way I feel about this team. I think the defense is going to be better I would be shocked if the offense is better than it was unless Bo Nix just takes like a massive massive leap as a player so they're almost like for very different reasons in the same bucket that I would put the Chargers where it's like they'll probably win like 9-10 games again but I think it'll look different this time around for the Broncos here's my thing with

51:47Derrik Klassen: the Broncos and I said I feel better about them than I thought I'm just in love with the infrastructure here and like I said like I'm not sold on Bo Nix ever being like a true blue chip quarterback at least not yet but I am sold that Bo Nix with Sean Payton behind a great offensive line on a team that is regularly gonna hold its opposition to 20 points you could be cooking with gas here especially when you remember and I mean we don't have to do the five-year picture but the Broncos are doing all of this while they get out from underneath the Russ Wilson debacle. And two, three years from now, when they've got money to burn and they're, you know, if they've drafted well in that time span, you could turn this team into an Eagles sort of situation where it's like, do we, yeah, do we have Patrick Mahomes?

52:41Derrik Klassen: No, but our team kicks ass and Bo Nix is more than good enough to get us where we're trying to go. Like I could very easily see the Broncos following that blueprint here over the next few years.

52:52Dave Helman: I mean, that's definitely a good point. I do. That's why I kind of hate, you know, I'm not fading them, but I wish I was more enthusiastic because I love Sean Payton. It's just again, yeah, looking at some of the other stuff, it was hard for me to get where I wanted to.

53:04Derrik Klassen: Having said all of that, I feel for 2025, I feel similar about the Broncos as I do about the Chargers where I'm like, is the ceiling drastically higher? Not this year, probably. but I mean that defense, which is crazy because it's a quarterback league. But if I think, am I crazy for saying this, Derek? I think if I could choose between having the Broncos defense or Justin Herbert with that supporting cast, like I think I'll take the defense. Like I think I'll, I will take a unit like that over having that sick of a quarterback. And I love Justin Herbert. I don't, I feel silly for saying this, but I think I, I think I believe it.

53:45Dave Helman: I don't think that's that crazy. because like I think if it was if you were taking Justin Herbert in isolation I would much rather have Justin Herbert but if you're doing Justin Herbert with the other 10 players that he currently has around him it's like the ceiling for that offense is like I don't know they grind it out to be the 14th best offense in the league whereas this Broncos defense like if we look up December 10th and they're the best defense in the league are you going to be surprised I don't think anyone

54:11Derrik Klassen: would be I'd go as far as to say I kind of expect it yeah no and that's Justin Herbert in a vacuum I'll take him 10 times out of 10 but Justin Herbert in this Chargers offense which looks a lot like the ones we've already seen I'd rather ride with the Broncos defense which like I said I feel silly for doubting a quarterback that talented but that's that's how I feel about

54:35Dave Helman: this unit at the end of the day and you know what the last thing I'll say we saw Justin Herbert with that kind of supporting cast get absolutely hammered in the playoffs against the defense that we expect to be of this caliber. So there you go.

54:48Derrik Klassen: Just just saying there's there is more to the quarterback position. I'm as guilty as anybody for forgetting that. But there is more to the game than just the quarterback position. And I think I think the Broncos could be a poster boy for that. All right. We got one more team to get to. Before that, we're going to take one last break.

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57:14Derrik Klassen: All right, Derek, we've talked about this team before. I called them the most interesting team in the NFL right now the other day, and that makes it very hard to determine where they stand. That would be the Minnesota Vikings. They went 14 and three last year. They were the NFC's number five seed. They were one game away from having home field advantage in the playoffs, but they swapped out their quarterback. They're starting or presumed to start a guy who has never played meaningful NFL snaps on an otherwise loaded roster. I really don't know what to do with this. How do you feel about the Minnesota Vikings?

57:50Dave Helman: things i think it's really really tempting to say the arrow is pointing up right you have maybe the best like you have at least one of the three best one two receiver combos in the league with justin jefferson and jordan addison um tj hawkinson is a solid tight end aaron jones is still a good running back the interior is way better than it was last year so i think if you're making the case that this the unit or the arrow is pointed out for this unit it's that right you're going from one of the worst interiors last year to, you know, Donovan Jackson, who you drafted in the first round, who should be some sort of an upgrade over Blake Brendel.

58:25Dave Helman: And then Ryan Kelly and Will Fries, who were part of a quietly still really good Colts offensive line, despite how bad the rest of the things were going in Indianapolis. So I think that is the reason you would say the arrow is pointing up. And they also added some pieces on the defensive line, you know, like Jonathan Allen, who we mentioned earlier when we were talking about Washington, Javon Hargrave which I think their defense they kind of needed some more beef so all of that it's easy to say the arrows pointed up but I look at the quarterback situation and I look at the secondary and I just I have a lot more questions about like what the floor is for this team that I think I wanted to coming in what is it about the secondary specifically I assume it's the cornerback depth it and the safeties I just like Harrison Smith I think was fine last year I just think that when you're a safety of his age like the the cliff is coming very soon and it could be this year I don't think that would be that surprising you know he's been in I think this is year 13 for him so I think that's a consideration and then Cam Bynum was awesome in this defense last year I mean he got paid accordingly in free agency and they had to let him walk and you know it's either going to be guys like Josh Metellus or Theo Jackson who are filling in for him and they might be nice but I think I would be surprised if they're as good as Cam Bynum

59:42Derrik Klassen: please don't hate on my king Josh Metellus I love Josh Metellus irrationally he's anybody that's if anybody that's in a different spot on the field every single snap I just I am an unabashed fan of and maybe it's I'm probably giving him too much credit but I just love watching that guy play

1:00:00Dave Helman: Well, so that's the thing. He's like a fun curiosity, right? But if he has to potentially be more of like a standard starting safety, I have some questions about whether that's going to work. And then to me, I still look at the outside cornerback room, whether it's, you know, Isaiah Rogers is fine, but if you're shooting for fine as your best corner, I think that's a little bit tricky. They signed Jeff Okuda. They're hoping Makai Blackman comes back from ACL injuries. Like it's just outside of Byron Murphy, I don't really love the corner the room. So, you know, I talked about this a little bit on a different show, but you know how with the Dolphins offense, it's felt like over the past three years, they've they keep leaning in on speed and smaller guys and playmaking.

1:00:40Dave Helman: And they've gotten to the point where it's like, oh, now they just get punched in the mouth all the time. I feel a little bit that way with the Vikings defense, where it's like, oh, they've leaned so far into smoke and mirrors and making our front really good that they've kind of ignored that they just don't have any guys who can cover anymore.

1:00:55Derrik Klassen: Yeah, at the end of the day, Brian Flores's scheme is so much fun. I think anybody who likes football enjoys seeing what he's going to dial up on a week to week basis. But it's still nice to just have a boring old corner that you can count on to handle a guy in man coverage and not do anything goofy. You mentioned this. We talked about it with Robert a little while ago. A lot of veteran cornerbacks still available. Is this a team that maybe goes after? I mean, maybe you just reunite with Stefan Gilmore a couple of weeks into training camp. Like, I wouldn't be surprised if something like that happened.

1:01:30Dave Helman: I would genuinely feel a lot better about this defense if they did that, because Gilmore, again, he wasn't, you know, a sexy player for them. But if they're going to do so much, letting the corners play off and really throwing a lot of blitzes and simulated pressures that allow the cornerbacks to play with their eyes more than, you know, their feet and really running with guys. I think Gilmore was pretty good at that last year. so if they can do that or maybe like Rasul Douglas if they wanted to go that route I would probably feel better but again I still there's still not that much high ceiling secondary play

1:02:01Derrik Klassen: outside of a guy like Byron Murphy very fittingly you took the sicko angle first but I'm not gonna let you off the hook because this is like we're not being too simplistic by trying to decipher for the quarterback situation. I mean, it's all there for the Vikings to be a good team. Even, even if you got some questions about their defense or, or whatever, I mean, really, that's the only thing I could think of. I don't have a single question about their offense other than JJ McCarthy, which it sounds insane to think that a team starting a 22 year old quarterback could do anything meaningful, but we just saw the Vikings get a 14 win season out of Sam Darnold.

1:02:44Derrik Klassen: who had never done anything other than have a couple three game flashes at times like that was the extent of his success in the league. So it is not crazy to think that this team and this staff of all teams and staffs could get something out of this guy right away.

1:03:04Dave Helman: I think it's possible. I just I have so many reservations about it. Right. And some of it aren't necessarily McCarthy's fault. Obviously, he suffered some of the knee injury stuff, so he's going to be coming back from that. And I think that threw a wrench in his timeline for a player that I think we all knew as a prospect was going to take time. They didn't even really want to play him last year. So the fact that he didn't even really get that onboarding year in terms of getting practice reps and really getting to play, I think it's going to hurt him a lot. I will say he does have, you can see some of the similarities in his game that you could paste onto what Sam Darnold did last year, right?

1:03:41Dave Helman: Like he McCarthy is a guy who I think will stand in the pocket, stare down the barrel of the gun and make the throw. I think he's pretty good at that. He throws with velocity. I don't think he has overall the same arm talent as Sam Darnold, but he can at least throw with velocity almost in the way that like Baker Mayfield can't always put touch on the ball, but he can throw it 100 miles an hour. J.J. McCarthy kind of has some of that to him. And so I think that could fit in this offense. And then he's a decent athlete. You know, he's not he's not going to be running around like Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, but he can do enough that he's going to be able to make two or three creative plays a game.

1:04:15Dave Helman: I just still look at him and I look at what Sam Darnold was. He's a little bit less of an athlete than Darnold to me. I think he's arm again is good, but a little bit worse than Sam Darnold's. And I also think Sam Darnold just had more size and ability to like stand tall in the pocket. And JJ is not small, but he's a little bit on the skinnier side. And I worry that that's going to hurt him a little bit standing in the pocket. So I just between the wonky timeline, him being physically a lesser version of what Darnold was. It's hard for me to get like that excited for a year one. This to me feels more like a player you want to be good by the end of his rookie deal.

1:04:53Derrik Klassen: It's funny because I didn't again, I didn't really care for JJ as a prospect either. And I said the same thing about Bo Nix. I guess I wasn't giving Sean Payton enough credit for everything that he's done. Whereas I'm very quick to give Kevin O 'Connell credit for the things that he's done in a short amount of time. I mean, Kirk Cousins played really good football for him. We just saw the Sam Darnold situation. And even with all of my reservations about JJ, this situation just gives me confidence. Like I, I'm almost willing to throw all of my priors out the window and be like, if you're throwing to these guys with this group of players in front of you and Kevin O 'Connell's there, like I'm not saying they're going to run the league from day one.

1:05:45Derrik Klassen: But I just I just kind of trust that it's going to work out in some form or fashion.

1:05:50Dave Helman: And he doesn't even have to be that good, right? Like if he's if he is quarterback 22 in the NFL, it means they will be the seventh best offense in the league. You know, like the quarterback doesn't have to be that good for the rest of the offense to work and do the thing that it needs to do.

1:06:06Derrik Klassen: Isn't it easy to imagine JJ having a Bo Nix ish year where statistically he plays very well and the Vikings have a good record. And then we spend nine months arguing about how good he actually is. And Vikings fans hate us for not giving him enough credit.

1:06:22Dave Helman: it like that's very easy for me to imagine and I think that's going to get even more volatile because at least with Denver I think a lot of like Bo Nix supporters can look at the um the depth chart and be like well you know Cortland Sutton's good but it's not like he was doing this with any sort of superstar cast but you look at the Vikings and it's like well you have the best receiver in football one of the best number twos a pretty good tight end and if the interior additions are what they think they are like this could be a top eight offensive line and I think more importantly to me like this is actually the thing that I want to talk about and I think might be the reason if the arrow is pointed up to me it's not the quarterback it's that I think they might have a good run game this year like if those interior players are good they might be able to run

1:07:03Derrik Klassen: the ball finally I think one of the most slept on additions of the entire offseason is Jordan Mason coming over from San Francisco I don't really understand why the Niners were in a hurry to part ways with him. I know he had some fumble issues. I know it wasn't all great, but considering Christian McCaffrey's situation, the speed with which they moved on from a guy who I thought was very fun and has some really impressive burst. I thought that was weird. And I think the Vikings could stand to benefit from it in a big way.

1:07:36Dave Helman: All I can imagine there is the Niners looked at Isaac Garendo and maybe Kyle Shanahan just really loves him and was like,

1:07:44Derrik Klassen: sure Garendo Garendo is there I kind of forgot about him yeah and so maybe they were just like

1:07:48Dave Helman: you know what we can bump Garendo up to number two we'll take a running back in the fourth or fifth round or whatever they took Jordan James and Kyle Shanahan was like I'll just pass off this running back to a one of my buddies and Kevin O 'Connell which um again I kind of agree with you like I think he Mason can be especially that now that Aaron Jones is getting a little bit you know up there in age you don't really necessarily want him to be a workhorse Mason can eat a good amount to the carries and be like a pretty useful player for them.

1:08:14Derrik Klassen: I also just love the stability in Minnesota, like KOC and Quasi Adolfo Mensah signed extensions recently. You realize the Vikings have the sixth best record in the NFL over the time that KOC and Quasi have been there. It's like since 2022, they're 34 and 17. Like the only teams that are better than them at stacking wins are like the you know the the true powers in the nfl the chiefs the bills the eagles etc and that comes with a season where they lost kurt cousins halfway through like they know how to win football games clearly and i trust that even if there's some bumps in the road honestly even if for whatever reason jj mccarthy doesn't work out i think they're gonna have a long runway to get things sorted and so and i'm gonna get to this in a minute but like in a big enough picture I think the arrows pointed way up for the Vikings even if this year's team takes a step back

1:09:13Dave Helman: from 14 and 3 yeah I kind of feel about them the inverse of how I feel about Washington where I think Washington might be like same quality you could tell me the offense will be slightly better and they could be you know an 11-1 team and be decent but I look at 2026 and I'm like this is a little bit scary in terms of the way that the roster is put together I think about Minnesota to the opposite and I think it's because of the JJ McCarthy situation right like I just even if he might be fine I just don't think he's going to be like a difference making quarterback in year one but you could tell me that by year two or year three of him starting that he might be a difference making quarterback and I think over those two or three years they'll have a chance to fight finally retool the secondary in a way that they haven't the last offseason or so so I think big picture arrows pointing up I also think they'll probably be a worse team than they

1:10:01Derrik Klassen: were last year i'm pretty comfortable saying they're going to be a worse team just like 14 and 3 is crazy games again yeah 14 and 3 is crazy and the the third loss came on the final night of the season i mean it really was a remarkable story so i have no problem saying they're not going to have as good of a record like if this team goes i'm still picking them to make the

1:10:24Dave Helman: playoffs though are oh that's that's interesting i think i probably would like the nfc is stacked but I I'd probably still pick them.

1:10:32Derrik Klassen: The preseason over under is eight and a half. So I'm going to say you feel confident saying they go over that.

1:10:37Dave Helman: I think they can still get to nine. I think they can still get to like nine or 10 and be in the wild card at the very end. I don't think that would be that crazy. It feels attainable.

1:10:46Derrik Klassen: I'm I'm nervous just because they play in. I mean, they play in the deepest division in the NFL. Like even if the Lions are fall, even if the Lions fall off a little bit, that's still a team you got to worry about. I mean, 11 wins is the bare minimum to win this division, I would guess.

1:11:04Dave Helman: Yeah, that's a good point. Like, it's going to be bloody. Hopefully, you know, theoretically, the Bears are better. Theoretically, the Packers are a little bit healthier quarterback wise.

1:11:13Derrik Klassen: I'm with you, though, like nine and eight, ten and seven feels attainable. It's hard to say that for sure until we see what J.J. McCarthy looks like. But I can see it. But obviously that is mathematically much worse than a 14 and three season. So I do I do think the arrow is pointed down, but not not terribly.

1:11:32Dave Helman: Well, and so I think that's kind of like I would I would think that eight and a half number is a little bit baking in like the possibility that J.J. McCarthy just sucks, because if he just thinks like none of the rest of the roster matters, they win six games and they're cooked. But if he is at least like I said, he only has to be quarterback like 22. And this offense is humming and they can win 10 plus games. So I think the eight and a half number feels less to me like that's their midpoint and more just the range of outcomes is pretty high. And if J.J. McCarthy doesn't hit, they could be pretty ugly.

1:12:04Dave Helman: But I just I'm kind of with you. I trust O 'Connell enough to get him to like functional, even if he's not good.

1:12:09Derrik Klassen: I'll be shocked if he's outright awful. And yeah, I mean, what are the odds? All so many of the guys from last year's quarterback class played so well. And even, even the guys who struggled like Caleb, uh, and we didn't really see a whole lot of Michael Penix, but like Caleb Drake may like, even those guys had reasons or flashes of why you might feel confident. It's just hard to imagine that he would be outright terrible, especially again, maybe if he was, if he was quarterbacking the new Orleans saints this year, I would have a completely different opinion, but he's quarterbacking one of the best rosters in the league.

1:12:44Derrik Klassen: And that matters. I just, I think, I think the floor can only go so low and I hope I don't eat those words in a couple of months. All right. That's all we got for today. But listen, training camp is just getting ramped up. We got so much more coming your way. Robert will be checking in from the road, wherever he is. We're looking forward to that until then. We appreciate it for Derek. I'm Dave. We'll talk to you soon.

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