What happened to C.J. Stroud last season? 2026 Lingering Questions, episode 3

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1:32Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mayes. Our second lingering questions show today, chatting about some stuff we wanted to dig into about the Jags, the Giants defense, and about CJ Stroud at the end of last year. Really enjoyed that conversation with Dave and Derek. Before we get into that, obviously the big news of the day in the NFL world, there will be no supplemental draft this year. I'm so glad we spent an hour talking about it last week and where Brendan Soresby might go in that supplemental draft. The league came out today with a letter to Brendan Soresby that they've also kind of leaked out through various avenues and channels.

2:09Robert Mays: The NFL made it very clear that it is up to their discretion whether there is going to be a supplemental draft in any given year. And the way that they tried to frame the message to Brett and Soresby was, we don't have enough time to go through all of the information that we need to before a supplemental draft would happen. And that's why it can't happen. But they weren't even that veiled about it in like the preceding three or four paragraphs after that in saying, we don't support the way that you went about this. We don't support the lack of accountability, you going to the courts in order to solve this.

2:43Robert Mays: At the end of the day, I think this is a very clear and unambiguous statement by the NFL that they are worried about what gambling means. They're worried about the integrity of the sport. And that at the end of the day is their number one concern. And they are not going to let somebody like Brendan Soresby be the person who sullies that. And so as of right now, they've essentially told him, you're going to be waiting until the 2027 draft. His lawyers have since come out in the couple hours since the letter was released, said, we are going to fight this. We're going to go to the NFLPA. So this is not over.

3:18Robert Mays: But as of right now, the NFL sending a pretty clear message that they do not support the reasons that Brendan Soresby was even trying to enter the supplemental draft. So more on that to come. We'll see how this all gets resolved. But for now, let's dig into our second lingering question show with me, Dave and Derek right now.

3:47Robert Mays: We took a week off from these, but we're back. Officially the continuation of our lingering question series that we do each offseason. In total, like 15 or so ideas, questions, things that are holdovers from last year, Dave, that for one reason or another, we didn't have the time or space to fully dig into. A couple of these topics that we're going to talk about today are about playoff teams, but even when a playoff team loses, you're in and out so quickly from that discussion because you talk about the game and then you're just talking about the teams that are still left. So even with the postmortem, we're going to talk about CJ Stroud today.

4:23Robert Mays: We didn't have time to like really talk about what the long-term effects of the end of the CJ Stroud season would look like. That's why we use this space for exactly those types of conversations.

4:32Derrik Klassen: It's a dying concept, but you know how classically TV shows will have a bottle episode where they just do a whole episode of TV that has nothing to do with the overall plot points? I sure do. Of course. I mean, I know you do. You of all people know what I'm talking about. It's not as common as it used to be.

4:48Robert Mays: Is it weird that I just thought of the girl's episode where she's in Patrick Wilson's house?

4:53Derrik Klassen: Wasn't that who it was? I always think about the episode of Breaking Bad with the Fly. Like, that is my go-to example of a bottle episode.

5:03Robert Mays: which one was there's so many of them a community community feels like it's an entire show built of bottle episodes the one where they lose the pen and then they're all stuck in the study room for

5:14Derrik Klassen: the entire day arguing about where the pen is you know what i'm talking about i didn't realize you

5:18Robert Mays: were so deep in the community i love community it's a great show okay i didn't mean to start a

5:23Derrik Klassen: tangent about bottle episodes but my point is you get done with the season in the super bowl We launch immediately into draft content and free agency and you're doing this, that and the other. I took a lengthy vacation and I came back to prep for this show. And it's like just getting dumped back into the storylines from last year where you're like, oh, right. Shit. CJ Stroud. We got to figure out what's going on with him. And we'll talk about some of these other teams where I just I haven't needed to think about the way last season actually went in quite some time. So it was jarring to get dropped back into this.

5:58Robert Mays: You've got a few that we're hitting today. We're going to talk about what the heck happened at the end of C.J. Stroud's season and what we make of it moving forward. Obviously, the Texans picked up his fifth-year option, but some big questions about, I think, him and that offense and what our reasonable expectations should be from them. We're going to chat a little bit about another team in the AFC South. How real was the second half of the Jaguar season? Like, should we just be treating this like they are in line to be a top five to seven offense this year based on how the second half of the year went?

6:26Robert Mays: And as Derek spoiled a little bit on Blue Sky today, posting a particularly heinous clip of the New York Giants run defense. I also just wanted to talk about what we make of the holdover elements of the Giants defense. You know, as we transition to the John Harbaugh era, Bernard Wilson comes in to run the Giants defense. what are we really working with here and again what should reasonable expectations be for the core of that group considering some of the offseason additions that they made Derek

6:56Dave Helman: my teaser for before we hop into like any three of them the Giants one was actually the toughest for me to unpack because I went in thinking that they were more of the holdovers than there were but fewer of those players are actually returning so like trying to gauge like okay was the defense really the problem of the players that are now gone? Like how much are the new players going to fix some of these issues? Like how it's, it was more, it was tougher to untangle than I actually expected going in.

7:22Robert Mays: I think that's totally fair. And one of the reasons I wanted to do this is it's felt like over the last couple of years, the Giants defense has been a really prevalent preseason storyline because they had all of these guys on the defensive line and they drafted Abdul Carter and everyone was like, here comes the Giants defense. And it seems like every off season, I've kind of been like, are we sure? Are we sure that here comes the Giants defense? And then it's never happened. And so I think taking some time just to kind of sit with the idea of that unit, what they're going to be is what we wanted to do.

7:50Robert Mays: But like Derek said, and we'll dig into this, a lot of their issues last year are at positions where it's been completely remade. And so is that how much of that carries over? What should change based on some of the guys that they've added? So that one's kind of a middle ground conversation between previewing this season and looking back at last season. But it's still a unit that we wanted to spend some time with.

8:10Derrik Klassen: I'm relieved to hear y 'all say that because I felt the exact same way to the point where I was struggling because not only has the personnel changed over on the giant side of things, but Denard Wilson was in Tennessee. We all think very highly of Denard Wilson, but it was not good last year. So you're watching old Titans stuff, trying to decide what you think matters and what you don't, looking at tendencies and wondering how it's going to change at a new team with a whole new set of personnel. I felt like I was flying very blind through the whole Giants part of my prep for this show.

8:45Robert Mays: All right. So let's just start with the Giants conversation then, if we're all so itching to get into it. So Derek, when you were digging into this, I think that the way that I was approaching it, I'm wondering if this is the right way to be thinking about it. So last year, the New York Giants defense finished 21st in weighted defensive DVOA and 26th in overall defensive DVOA. They were yet again a bottom eight unit, despite some position groups that undeniably have a lot of talent. And so what I was trying to parse is how much of this should we be worried about moving forward, the performance from last year, and how much of this will change based on what some of the offseason additions looked like.

9:23Robert Mays: So let's take the first part of that question to kick things off here. When you watch the Giants defense and some of the issues that they had last year, which of those issues do you feel like are still things you're worrying about because a lot of the players that were culpable for it remain on the roster?

9:39Dave Helman: So I would say if we want to start from like a player perspective, I still have questions about the defensive line talent, not the edge group. Well, a little bit the edge group, and I'll get into that. I think the defensive line, when you watch them, like they had some decent plays, but I think for one, they're losing Rakim Nunez Roches, who not that this was a very good run defense, but he actually did have some flashes from them last year. So they're losing him, I think is going to hurt. Obviously losing Dexter Lawrence is going to hurt. And they've replaced them with some other guys. like they replaced him with DJ they replaced extra launch with DJ reader but he's getting a little bit older I don't know how long he's going to be able to sustain this level of play and they also signed Shelby Harris but again I still feel like overall the defensive line talent has taken a step back Darius Alexander to me did not show a whole lot as a rookie he was supposed to be this kind of like penetrate get into the backfield player and I did not feel like he was necessarily that guy as a young player and then the edges I think it's okay to build an edge room the way that they did where none of these guys are edge setters.

10:37Dave Helman: It's like Denver, right? Where all of these guys are just speed, get into the backfield. We're going to get TFLs. I think that's okay, but either they have to be elite at it. And I think if we assume that Carter takes a minor step like they can be, because obviously Burns is incredible as well, but the defensive line also has to hold up well enough interior wise for that to work the way it did in Denver. And Denver goes four or five deep of defensive line players who were really, really good. The Giants did not have that last year because Lawrence was banged up a little bit and the other guys weren't playing super well and they to me do not look like they have that this year the thing I will say that I think you can maybe start to sway me that this can be fixed I did feel like structurally they had issues like they were not a team that like stunted in the run game very much or very interesting I thought they did a poor job of like firing their linebackers when they needed to like they just did not structurally help their run defenders in a way that I do think this new staff might be able to

11:28Derrik Klassen: can I use Derek's point right there to pitch my overall supposition about the Giants defense what's your isn't isn't it okay if the defensive line talent isn't as good as as you want it to be like if you trade away Dexter Lawrence the week before the draft isn't it okay if things have taken a step back and I know the amount that they've invested on on the edge but just overall the health of their defensive line, if DJ Reader and Shelby Harris are sort of your band-aid after trading away arguably the best nose tackle in the NFL, isn't that okay?

12:05Robert Mays: Yes. I think it's okay on like a broader level, but I think it's kind of why I wanted to have this conversation. It's like as we turn the page to the John Harbaugh era, as there is going to be more like interest and excitement, I think general optimism about the Giants, I think the question I kind of wanted to sit with is what are the Giants really? on the defensive side of the ball? How much talent is there here really? Where are the holes still even after they got so much of a facelift this offseason and adding so many guys and making so many changes? And if that's the final answer, that's an acceptable answer, and I kind of think that's where we should land with this.

12:39Robert Mays: When I watched the Giants' defense last year, especially against the run, and that's where a vast majority of the issues really resided with the Giants' defense last year. They were kind of a middle-of-the-road pass defense, but when you look at the run defense, they were 26th overall in run defense success rate per next gen. Only the Bengals had a higher percentage of their rushes go over expectation last season than the Giants did. And that's when you watch them anecdotally, the tackling and the exact clip that Derek posted, it makes a lot of sense that they were right there, down there with the Bengals as truly one of the worst teams in the league.

13:14Robert Mays: When, all right, how much meat is on the bone here for the offense as they're running the ball? we're going to allow them to have every morsel every single time they're running the ball and I think what Derek is pointing out is kind of where I land with this too where we look at d and this is to me such a expression of how we talk about teams and where the holes are and how we talk and think about teams when we were discussing the Giants defense heading into last year everyone looked at the four guys along the defensive line and We're like, yeah, like, let's do this. And then you look at the Seahawks defense and there are 10 guys.

13:50Robert Mays: And that's the difference between what defenses are good and what defenses are not. When you're, you have maybe some top line talent that you're excited about, but the depth isn't there. The roles aren't there in part because the depth isn't there. What Derek alluded to with those edge setting defensive linemen. And I think it extends to other things too. Like Tyler Loop and Tyler Newbin, if you're going to play a lot of light boxes, is not a good run defender. Drew Phillips is small. And so if you're going to be playing their nickel run defense last year, the Giants, was atrocious. 48.5 % success rate out of nickel.

14:23Robert Mays: They're actually above average out of base. And there was a play against the Bears where it's in the red zone. It's an eight-yard touchdown from a non-guy. And I think it was Cole Komet was lined up as a fullback. And he just pushed Drew Phillips through the ground. I watched that exact game. Yep. And I think that that kind of that's where I think a lot of this stuff resides and where the areas that I think are important to talk about is that they just weren't set up to defend the run as a modern defense when you compare them to the really good teams in the league. And the question is now, are they like after an entire offseason, are they actually set up to be better?

14:59Robert Mays: I think in a lot of these areas, like the depths, the role players, all of that, the depth, the role players, all of that, I still have my questions, like for the exact reasons that you said, though two things that I will say, I think we should have more faith in happening. One, structural stuff, which I want to hear how you think that will actually manifest. And two, the linebacker play last year, especially after they got banged up, it couldn't have been worse. Like it truly could not have been worse over the second half of the season as they were dealing with second, third string linebackers.

15:28Robert Mays: You would hope that with Arvel Reese and Tremaine Edmonds, from a personnel perspective, at least that position group is going to feel drastically different this year than it felt last year, even if Tremaine Edmonds is an imperfect player at this point in his career.

15:43Dave Helman: Totally. Like, the linebackers are interesting because I think it's a very different group than they had last year. Like, I think even the things that their linebackers did well last year, which was Bobby Okereke and Darius Mosaw played a decent amount of snaps for them. I think those two are actually fine if they are coming up and like hitting someone and they can get block extension. They are not good at getting into the backfield. They are not that rangy, like all that stuff. And so anytime runs busted to the perimeter against this defense, either those guys were not getting over the top the way that they needed to.

16:15Dave Helman: And obviously the edge was not being set because that's just not what Brian Burns does. That's not what Abdul Carter does. That's not really what Kayvon Thibodeau really does. And then to your point about Tyler Newbin, he doesn't fit the alley very well. And he was usually their guy who was supposed to be fitting the alley. So they had, to me, a lot of these issues of just like fitting the edge. I think with Arvel Reese, that's not going to be an issue. I think Tremaine Edmonds, imperfect as he is, he can run and he can get to the edge. and then that does still leave you with some of the potential issues of we don't set the edge all that well and how well is Tyler Newben going to fit in but I do think the linebackers giving you more range and having more tools there to unlock them I do think that fixes some of the issues if we can also again structurally like I was mentioning this was not a team to me that did a lot of like early down run blitzing or stunting or anything like it was a lot of like hey the ball is going to be snapped and you know the guard is going to down block you handle it Like there just wasn't a lot of trying to keep the offense on their toes.

17:12Dave Helman: And I do have more faith in the staff that they can do a lot more of that than we saw from them last year.

17:17Derrik Klassen: It just sounds like it all comes back to and I think it's a great point on your part to note the excitement that has followed the Giants, particularly their front over the last two years, even not even 25, but heading into 24. Because that was Burns his first year, right? And Dexter Lawrence was still there heading into 24. I was incredibly excited to watch the Giants defense and it has not materialized. So I think it's correct on your part to point out that the hype has far exceeded the production on the field. But if we can reign that in heading into 2026, I think we'll be in a very good spot.

17:56Derrik Klassen: Going back to your point about the Giants overall defense, 26th in total defensive DVOA last year, They haven't been better than 21st during Joe Shane's entire time overseeing the Giants roster. Like they have not been a good unit for quite some time. And for me, it all just boils down to, well, what are your expectations? And I know there's a lot of really exciting young players that make this interesting. But if we could just avoid that bandwagon hopping mentality this summer, I think we'll be in a good space. because based on everything y 'all are saying, and I agree with it, is if this is a plucky, middling to bad unit, wouldn't that be a pretty good first step for the John Harbaugh era?

18:41Robert Mays: I would just like to see them, like, climb their way out of being a bottom eight defense. Yes. Remember, I mean, last year when we were talking about what is success for some of these teams, and I think my favorite one that Derek had where he put a fine point on it was, I just want the Panthers to not pick in the top ten. I just want the Giants to have like the 19th best defense in the league with those guys along the front and maybe with some better structural answers. I want to hear, Derek, more about some of the ideas you saw from the Titans last year and how you think some of those ideas grafted onto these players, even if there are still some concerns about interior defensive line depth, all of that, that this could be a better run defense simply because of the ideas that we're going to see associated with it.

19:22Dave Helman: well I one thing I am curious about is obviously coming from Tennessee the structure of the room was just so different up front like it was a it was a team that you had Jeffrey Simmons and Tavandra Sweat Sweat can hold ground about as well as anybody and Jeffrey Simmons can do that but also can get into the backfield he can stunt he can knife across the line whatever he's going to do whether or not the Giants really have defensive line talent that can do as that as well I'm we'll see the edge room is also as different as it could get you have all of these race cars now don't set the edge where all you had in Tennessee was guys who are not very good at rushing the passer but they can set an edge and so I actually do think structurally some of those things are going to look different like I think Tennessee in some cases could get by playing a little bit more too high having late fitters in the alley one because those those edges would buy you time for that on some of those perimeter runs and I think their safeties were actually kind of good at coming down and in like hitting like Hooker and Woods I thought did a really good job of that in a way that I'm not so sure I saw when I when I watched this Giants team.

20:21Dave Helman: So what they're going to try to do structurally, I think is going to be still a little bit of a question mark. I think I just trust this staff to find answers. The one thing that I do think will have carryover Cedric Gray in that Titans defense played a lot of weak side linebacker was a really, really good run through player. Like if he's on the weak side of outside zone, he's just got to fly across the face of that guard and get into the backfield really, really good at it. But Arvel Reese is, that's exactly what you want him to do, which is just like see ball, get ball. And I do think them weaponizing him that way, using Reese the way that they use Cedric Gray as like a blitzer and moving him down to get into different fronts.

20:56Dave Helman: That is the element of the defense that I do expect to have pretty clear carryover.

21:01Robert Mays: Spent most of this time talking about the run defense, because again, I think that's where a lot of the problems stem from last year. Let's talk about what this looks like as a pass defense. We haven't talked about the secondary at all. and the race cars aren't as effective on early downs when you're trying to stop people. But when it's third and eight, I do think that there is a path for this to be an exciting defense in those situations because obviously, you know, you have, you signed Paul Sandebo in free agency last year, brought in Javon Holland. You brought in Greg Newsom on that one-year deal, but they also drafted Colton Hood in the second round and they have a decent amount of flexibility on the back end.

21:34Robert Mays: So even if there are some run defense concerns here, Derek, in more defined passing situations And if the run defense is better, we'll have more of those. What do you think is like a reasonable set of expectations for the group that we're talking about here?

21:48Dave Helman: I still think even purely as a pass defense, I think even top 12 to me is probably generous because I think the secondary is OK. I like Drew. I think Drew Phillips is a very smart player. I think there are a number of times on film where he just gets outsized by guys, whether that's in coverage or even as a tackler sometimes, even if I think that he really brings it. And then the corner room is like could be fine. Like I think Paulson Adiba was OK when he was healthy last year. Greg Newsome, I think, has been really up and down the last couple of years. I like Colton Hood, but second round rookie, I think you're just not entirely sure.

22:24Dave Helman: To me, the only like absolutely positive force here I have in the secondary is Javon Holland. And again, I want to bring up Denver because I think when you look at the way that the Giants defense is built in terms of how the front looks and how the secondary, what they, I think, want to do in the secondary, it's kind of the same. the the difference is Denver just has a Patrick Sertan like they are able to get away with things in coverage that I'm not sure the Giants are going to be able to do so um how it actually comes together for them I'm not sure so again I think they can be fine like last year they were middle of the pack ish I think they'll be better than that I don't know if it'll be so much so that like this defense is outright winning them games I also think that you look at Denver's

23:04Robert Mays: defense last year and it's easy I think the comparisons are apt and I understand why you're making them when you have those like speed-based rushers and that you that's kind of the foundation of what the defense feels like but the broncos have three interior defensive line players that are better than the best interior defensive line player are on the giants three or had before john franklin myers went to tennessee and so i just think that there are enough lean areas of this defensive roster overall still that we're going to be asking denardo wilson to do a lot of heavy lifting if this defense is going to outperform expectations.

23:38Derrik Klassen: But I do think that's a strength of Denard Wilson's. And that's one thing that gives me, I don't want to oversell it, but it gives me some optimism about the Giants is I think Denard Wilson is going to lessen the load on his DBs in the sense of what he's asking them to do. The Giants have run north of 30 % man coverage for the last four years. And obviously when Wink Martindale was there, I know most of these guys weren't there with Wink, but like we're not that far removed from the Giants leading the league in man coverage with north of 40 percent. Last year they were at 39 percent, which was top five.

24:13Derrik Klassen: Like they're putting a lot of onus on their D on their corners to be really, really good. That's not Denard Wilson's thing. At least it hasn't been. And it wasn't.

24:24Robert Mays: And I think the Greg Newsom signing would lead you to believe that's not the way that they'll want to play. Right. I mean, the Browns literally traded him to his own heavy team because the Jags needed another corner that could adeptly play some zone in the Browns and play a lot of man coverage and didn't think he fit what they wanted to be.

24:38Derrik Klassen: I think of it as, and this is a totally unscientific way to look at it, but I just look at it as a numbers game where if you've got enough bodies that Denard Wilson can muck shit up with, it can at least be passable. I was going to bring up my guy, Ardarius Washington, one more time. But if you're telling me you think Drew Phillips is too small, I don't know if I can really sell you on my 5 '8", 180-pound safety, but I do expect him to have a role in the slot and do things in sub-packages. Absolutely. Like, I would guess, or I'll put it this way, the Giants have the personnel to do a lot of three-safety shit if Denard Wilson wants to.

25:14Robert Mays: I think this whole thing, and partially the reason I wanted to have this conversation, is as you move toward a new regime and you move toward, I think a lot of Giants fans justifiably probably look at the John Harbaugh hire and think, you know, that's the home run that you were looking for this offseason like things feel different or we hope they feel different because of this setting some reasonable expectations for like how much talent there still needs to be how much talent is still missing on this roster I think is an important conversation to be having this offseason and going back and watching what they were last year and then kind of setting us up to look at what they're going to be this year that's kind of where I land it's like this place this thing still has a ways to go and that's okay like you said that's that's an okay place to be, but I think it's an important reminder that we keep kind of anchoring ourselves to that idea.

26:00Derrik Klassen: The Giants are a victim of their market and their own legacy where people want and demand better than what they've been. And that leads to getting ahead of yourselves. And if I'm wrong, if for whatever reason, whether it's Jackson Dart, whether it's the defense, like if I'm wrong and this team is just way better than they look, I'll eat that every single time. But I think the fair way to look at the Giants is you did this reboot and hired this legacy coach for a reason. And to just skip all of those steps because you're the New York Giants isn't fair to anybody. And so that's the way I view them as a team.

26:36Derrik Klassen: That's the way I view their defense. I'm excited to watch a lot of pieces of this, but I don't think it's fair to expect better than, like I said, like the plucky version of bad. Maybe middling. Middling would be a tremendous success for year one of John Harbaugh in New York.

26:53Robert Mays: All right, let's take our first quick break here and come back and chat a little bit about the way CJ Stroud's season ended last year.

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30:17Robert Mays: We always frame these lingering questions as an actual question when we're planning the show, when we're building the list. And I think the exact language that we use with C.J. Stroud, Katie, was what the f*** happened to C.J. Stroud at the end of last season? So, Derek, let's ask the question. What the f*** happened to C.J. Stroud at the end of last season?

30:37Dave Helman: I want to start this entire conversation with a different question, because I think we've gotten this idea of like, we're panicking about CJ Stroud and like, is he actually good? Has he fallen off? Is he broken? All of this stuff. Without injuries being a concern, when was the last time we had a quarterback this young who we all thought was a top 10 quarterback who just suddenly wasn't good anymore? I can't really think of that. happen like if you if some people thought Tua was that but Tua was such a specific like how that offense was functioning that even that doesn't really count to me but I asked the question because like I think the Occam's razor here is the offensive line for CJ Stroud has been so bad for two seasons that it kind of just ultimately came to a head in the spotlight and I think people are going to make it out to be like spotlight bright lights he can't make decisions he's won and played really well in the playoffs before.

31:32Dave Helman: Like, to me, it's not that he can't do it. I think a lot of this stuff finally just came to a head for him after, again, having to play behind this offensive line for 30 games in a row.

31:41Robert Mays: It's a good thing to bring up, and I was thinking, going back and trying to think if there are any similar examples, and I partially, I don't, there aren't in part because we haven't had somebody that was as good as C.J. Stroud was as a rookie and then kind of regressed from there a little bit, you know, and I think the best possible example, and he didn't hate the heights that CJ Straub did as a rookie, but a guy that played his best football as a rookie and then kind of progressively took steps back from there and then changed the way we talk about his career. Mac Jones comes to mind, right?

32:15Robert Mays: Like they're very different types of players and different tiers of players, but it's a similar sort of trajectory. He just started from a lower point. And then you go from the CJ Straub question is, is C.J. Stroud worth$55 million a year? Right. That's the other main question. That is the C.J. Stroud question. And so the Max Jones question is, is he a starting quarterback? And we've kind of landed on no. The C.J. Stroud question is, based on the trajectory that you're talking about, is he worth being a starter in the NFL? The answer to that is clearly yes. And I think he's probably like in a top half of the league starter in the NFL.

32:48Robert Mays: It's what is he worth when you have to pay him here in a year? And that's an interesting question an interesting discussion to me because I'm not exactly sure what the answer is.

32:58Derrik Klassen: Which is wild when you think about where we were after his rookie year. And he was the type of guy where you're already setting the clock on when you can negotiate with him. And now not only are the Texans not in a rush to negotiate with him, they paid his draft mate at the earliest possible time. And for good reason. I don't know the answer to that, but I think where I come down right now heading into this season, I'm, I'm fine saying I'm not that worried about it. I'm, I'm comfortable believing that CJ Stroud can dig his way out of this. And I don't blame the Texans if they want to see it before they pay him.

33:36Derrik Klassen: That's not what I'm trying to say. But to Derek's point, I think, I think a lot of this stuff was bound to come up. And actually, I remember Derek, one of the first shows you and I did together when I came on last summer, while Robert was doing his training camp tour was what the hell are the Texans doing? Why isn't this offense better if you're trying to maximize what's going on with C.J. Stroud? And we can dig into it. I'm not absolving C.J. Stroud of everything, but looking back through the year that he had, I was like, well, if I was worried about this in August, why am I that surprised when it got pretty ugly over the course of the year?

34:14Derrik Klassen: That was the overarching takeaway that I had looking back through everything.

34:18Robert Mays: I think part of this discussion is framing what C.J. Stroud's playoffs were in relation to what C.J. Stroud was over the majority of the season. Like if you look at it, just like very simple advanced numbers, C.J. Stroud had a 47 % passing success rate last year, which was an above average mark per next gen across the entire league. And when you think about like Derek alluded to some of the structural concerns with the Texans offense, the fact that the Texans had above average advanced metrics as a passing offense for a majority of the season or that C.J. Stroud did, I think speaks to his ability to keep this thing afloat despite all of the things that they were dealing with.

34:55Robert Mays: And we can get into what those were. But then you fast forward to what the playoffs were and they were an absolute disaster. So are the playoffs an aberration? Are they an outlier in terms of how bad they were compared to what we saw from C.J. Stroud last year? Or is this just the next step in what has been a slow and steady decline from what we saw from him as a rookie? I think that is the central question. And if your answer is those games are not an indication of what CJ Stroud actually is, I'm that's an OK answer. I just wonder where you land on that.

35:28Dave Helman: And I think I think both of these things can be true. CJ Stroud ruined the Texans chance to get to the Super Bowl, like the way that he played in those games individually was terrible. And again, there are some circumstantial factors like the offensive line was not good. You had the run game not being very good, all that stuff. But he, especially in the Steelers game, if he had just like chilled out and just played a more structured football game and did not make mistakes, they win that game easily. And then I think they could go like way further into the playoffs if he had just calmed down and did not feel like he needed to be the hero.

36:01But again, that to me speaks more to like,

36:03Dave Helman: this is a very young player who I think was doing things that are out of character for the other 40 some odd games that we've seen him play in the NFL. And I'm more willing to believe that, hey, it's been a tough couple of years for him. He played a stretch of games that was really uncharacteristic and he probably knows is inexcusable. And I'm willing to believe that he's not really going to play like that again and that we're more likely to see him play structured quality football. And again, the way that we did for the first 40 games, most of the first 40-ish games of his career.

36:38Robert Mays: A number that jumps out to me as I was prepping for this, CJ Stroud last year during the regular season, across however many hundreds of dropbacks CJ Stroud had, had 13 turnover-worthy plays per pro football focus. He had 10 in the playoffs.

36:54Dave Helman: It was an abject failure in those two games. I think we overrated how bad, quote, bad he was during the regular season, and then those two games were as bad as they could have possibly been.

37:05Robert Mays: I'll say this. I agree to an extent. I think the Patriots game is like an utter disaster. Oh, yes. From the start, there are, and it's not even just the interceptions that happened. There are four or five plays that didn't end up in turnovers. When you watch them, it's like, what is, what is even possibly crossing his mind as he makes this decision? Well,

37:29Derrik Klassen: he fumbled a half dozen times in those games. He could not hold onto the ball in the Steelers game.

37:34Robert Mays: The Steelers game, You have two dropped snaps. And then the Steelers game, to me, the two kind of disastrous turnover plays are where he's just trying to do a little bit too much. The flea flicker is one. Just eat that. Like, just eat it. Like, there's no reason. It is the definition in the Steelers game, to my opinion. And a couple times in the Patriots game where just don't make a bad play worse. In the Steelers game, he does that on the flea flicker and then the red zone interception. That's just a play where it's like, that can't happen. like just eat that thing and kick a field goal especially when you're considering the feel of that game and the arc of that game and what you was being asked of the offense just come away with three points there man all you have to do is not beat yourself in the Patriots game the play where I think it's kind of a continuation of that the interception he throws in the pick six to Marcus Jones that partially that's because the tight end falls on the slide route he has no outlet in the flat but that stuff happens just eat it don't let that play turn into a pick six.

38:30Robert Mays: But I think that is more reserved for the Steelers game when it was like these plays were already bad. He was making them worse. He was making play plenty of plays bad all on his own in the Patriots game in a way that wasn't necessarily happening in the Pittsburgh game. I thought he played better than I expected him to when I kind of reopened that game and watched it in the Patriots game. It was just as bad as you remember it being.

38:51Derrik Klassen: Yes. And I mean, you can't, you cannot, you can't hand wave away any part of that because that sequence changed the entire game. They were up. They were up in the second quarter of that game and the pick six puts them down. And then in quick succession, you throw another interception. I think that was actually the interception that wasn't his fault because one of them clanged off Hutchinson's hands. Like that's just shit. That was a high throw though, too. If it clangs off your hands in the playoffs, I'm willing.

39:22Robert Mays: Maybe I'm thinking of a different thing. There were a couple, and that's another thing is that he is more scattered. It was more scattershot last year, even when he was playing well, than he was during the best stretches early in his career. And I think that warrants a conversation. I think, well, but he still had games where it was really good.

39:40Dave Helman: So again, I'm more willing to let that slide a little bit.

39:43Robert Mays: There's one consistent element to this. That's what's so frustrating. There are moments where you see him sail a back shoulder throw, or it's a throw over the middle and he's leaving it a foot and a half high guys just getting a fingertip on it and then he's making some ridiculous 45 yard down the field throw with a guy caving in the pocket sitting in his lap that's right on the money it's not as if there's like consistent accuracy issues is that they're inconsistent the inconsistency of it is what

40:11Dave Helman: makes it so frustrating and i think there were a couple of reasons why he was so inconsistent this year. Obviously, bad line plays is going to lead into that. But two, because of the new offense, more of the pre-snap operation was on his shoulders. And it's not that he can't handle it, but first year for any young quarterback doing that, that's going to be a little bit trickier and put some things into question, especially again, once you've spent 15 weeks of an NFL season and there's been some ups and downs because maybe I don't trust my back to get to the right spot. Maybe I don't trust my tight end to chip in the right way.

40:40Dave Helman: Maybe I don't trust my guard to take on this stunt. Whatever it is, I think that can build up. I also think he got mixed signals in terms of like what it actually requires him to win a game like obviously in the Steelers game if he just chills out that game is way easier if he chills out against the Patriots I think they have a much easier chance but the Chiefs game that they played in the towards the end of the regular season he completes like 50 % of his balls but if you watch the way that it's played they can't run the ball at all and the Chiefs are just spam blitzing them so the only way to win that game is haymakers and haymakers and haymakers and he he hit them like he had a number of plays to Nico Collins.

41:14Dave Helman: He had a post that he threw. He had like five or six plays outside of the pocket where he was just like, make a guy miss, throw back against my body, which like you're taught not to do. But again, in that game, in that moment, he needed it. And I think kind of after that moment, he just had a little bit of an issue turning that off once we got into the playoffs.

41:31Derrik Klassen: It's the least impressive stat line you've ever seen against the Chiefs. But there are a couple snaps in that game where he's like evading Chris Jones, like the T-Rex chasing the Jeep in Jurassic Park and just ripping these darts down the middle of the field. Like, all that stuff is still there. And that's why I'm not willing to let it go. Like, it's still there. It was very inconsistent, and it came with some truly boneheaded decision-making. How much of that is the amount of pre-snap stuff that's on you? How much of that is not trusting your protection and developing bad habits because of it?

42:06Derrik Klassen: what we're not going to do is absolve the New England game at all. But like Nico Collins didn't play in that game. How much of it is the personnel around you from your past catchers? Another thing I want to bring up, he missed three and three quarters of the season. He missed three games and three quarters of another with a concussion, like a concussion that was bad enough to hold him out for a month of the season, basically. And obviously he came back and he played and he played well in some instances after that. So not to say that it completely hindered his ability to play football, but that's a big deal for a very cerebral position, in my opinion.

42:41Robert Mays: Even when he was playing and playing better than he did in the playoffs, though, I do think and I don't want to go too far down this road because you don't want to psychoanalyze people and kind of put something on them that isn't true. but just anecdotally watching him, and the numbers back this up, his scramble rate after coming back from that concussion halved compared to what it was over the first 10 weeks of the season. And I think some of the best stuff that C.J. Stroud was doing over the first half of the season is that he was more of a creator than he had been at previous times in his career, in part because he had to be because of the rest of the offense was so messy and they were just trying to kind of stay afloat.

43:19Robert Mays: When you watch him in those last couple games, when you watch him in the final month or so of the season, even in games that were better than those playoff games again. My biggest issue is that when something isn't there quickly for him, Derek, he's hanging on it a little too long, and then he's panicking. And I think early in the season, there are plenty of moments where there's just nothing there within the offense in those playoff games. Earlier in the year, he was finding answers with his legs quicker than he was as we got a little bit deeper into the year. And I think those are some of the worst moments he had in those games is when he starts getting a little bit skittish and a little bit panicky in the pocket.

43:56Robert Mays: And then a bad play gets much, much worse. And my one of my biggest questions is, does this carry over into next season? Do we see a version of CJ Stroud in week one that is closer to what he was at the beginning of last year? Or do we see a guy who's hanging in the pocket a little bit too long, even as things are crumbling around him? and that ability to pull the ripcord and turn a negative into a positive just disappears in the way it did down the stretch last season because I think that's going to go a long long way in determining how CJ Stroud how watching CJ Stroud feels next year if he doesn't have that ability

44:32Dave Helman: to get outside of the pocket and make plays I do think that's going to hurt him because I think he's a good purely hang in the pocket that style of passer but to be like elite at that and only be a guy who really succeeds from the pocket you either have to have like special arm strength like a Matthew Stafford or somebody like that or you have to have been doing this for 10 years like a

44:54Robert Mays: Matthew Stafford or like that there between the ears yet to play like that he's just not like

44:58Dave Helman: Dak Prescott Dak Prescott is like a perfect example doesn't have the most under the age of 30

45:03Derrik Klassen: can like consistently play that way within today's NFL without that game-changing play-breaking

45:09Dave Helman: ability it's actually actually robert i want to bridge together what you were just talking about about that like hanging on to stuff in the pocket and doesn't really have that escape outlet that was the problem with 2019 2020 jared goff was that he could like hang in the pocket and make some of these throws but if he had to get three seconds into a play and didn't have his answer he wasn't good enough at getting to the check downs yet didn't have a special enough arm to access like everything on the field and just hadn't like played long enough to like make that process a little bit quicker. Well, now we're what, nine, 10 years into his NFL career, and he's definitely there, even if he doesn't really have that scramble ability.

45:46Robert Mays: I think that you alluded to this a little bit, Derek, but I think it's really important to kind of lay out why this was the case. And this is, again, not to absolve CJ Stroud. I think if you talk to people in the Texans building, they would feel this way. They were scrambling for answers all year. They were scrambling for answers offensively in so many different areas. Woody Marks played so much more football than he should have last season out of necessity. They just didn't have another back that they could play. I believe they, so they were 30th last year that the Texans were in total dropbacks and an EPA per dropback with two or three tight ends in the field.

46:23Robert Mays: They had no tight end depth whatsoever. So they had to play all of this jumbo because they didn't have enough tight ends. they didn't have good answers along the offensive line. And so they're shuffling the offensive line throughout the entire season where eventually they get to a place where, all right, we're going to put Titus Howard at left guard. Trent Brown's going to play right tackle because he has to, like it's the only option that we have right now, but they were cycling through so many different options before they got there early in the year. They're trying to wad it up and do all this deep developing play action.

46:51Robert Mays: That's not working because even when they have seven or eight guys of protection, they can't block anybody. I was shocked at going back and even watching stuff late in the season when they would try to do that. Last year, the Texans had the second most dropbacks in the league with seven or eight guys in pass pro per TrueMedia. They completed less than 50 % of those passes, and they allowed a 43 % pressure rate with seven or eight guys in protection. 43 %? Do you know where that ranked? 0.1. So it's kind of skewed because so teams ran a dozen of those plays that if you allowed pressure on two or three of them, but a 43 % pressure rate when you did it 79 times is just completely untenable.

47:34Robert Mays: They averaged negative 0.15 EPA per drop back on those plays, which was 27th in the NFL while running the most of them. So there were just so many different areas of the offense that I understood why they were trying to do it because it seemed like the best answer with the offensive line concerns, but it didn't give them any sort of relief or any sort of reprieve. You go back and you look at some of the things they did well. So on throws of less than two and a half seconds last year with five guys out in the route. So when you're using space, you're trying to get the ball out of his hands. They were ninth in EPA per drop back on those plays, essentially tied with the Cowboys and the Rams.

48:10Robert Mays: On throws out of condensed sets, only Matthew Stafford, Sam Darnold, and Patrick Mahomes had more total EPA on those throws. on throws to the middle of the field out of condensed sets, 0.35 EPA per drop back on those plays for CJ Stroud. You saw some of the areas where he can still be really good. Like if you're going to let him play point guard from the gun, he can still do a really good job of that on a lot of those in breakers. They were really, really good on design rollouts and moving the pocket, and they had to lean into those because they couldn't just let him set up behind that offensive line consistently throughout the season.

48:48Robert Mays: So my hope is, and if you're trying to paint this in a rosy way, you have year two in the system with a play caller that had never done this before and I think learned a lot about himself over the course of last year. You have an offensive line that, again, it's not a world-beating group, but it should be more consistent and a little bit deeper than it was last year. You have a group of pass catchers where you're going to be leaning on some second-year guys that played last year and hopefully will be a little bit better this year. the tight end depth that they've created for themselves this year by drafting Marlon Klein in the second round, you're going to have Kate Stover, hopefully healthy for the court over the course of the season.

49:23Robert Mays: I just think that they're going to have a lot more stability than they ever had at any point last year. And while I don't think that guarantees, you're going to see the version of CJ Stroud that he looked like at his best. I think it at least sets him up to succeed or to be the best version of whatever this is of himself in a way that he just wasn't last year.

49:45Dave Helman: If you because the issue with the offense last year was, yeah, like there are still some things he's really good at, but you can't build the entire offense out of like three concepts, right? Like you have to like force defenses to cover everything. It's just that everything they tried to do outside of those handful of departments was just not good. And I think, again, a lot of that goes back to the offensive line and run game because so much of the burden was on CJ Stroud. Like they obviously were not a team that could run the ball very much. So they're always in second and nine and third and seven and all this stuff.

50:14Dave Helman: They were also another small point to that did not do anything as far as screens go. Like they 2.5 % of CJ Stroud's passing yards were screens.

50:22Robert Mays: Dead last in the NFL and the percentage of their passes behind the line of scrimmage. And they didn't throw the ball downfield that much. They weren't like at the bottom, bottom of the league. But if you look at it, I think like 18.7 % of their total attempts were 15 or more air yards, which was 23rd or 24th in the league. So let's play that out. If you're not throwing the ball behind the line of scrimmage and you're not really pushing the ball downfield, everything that you're doing is operating in like a zero to 15 yard box. Go watch that play where Craig Woodson comes downhill on the first drive when they're playing against the Patriots in that playoff game.

50:57Robert Mays: He doesn't give a shit about what is going to go on like behind him and over his head. And when you allow defenses to play like that, that's just one other area where you're really making things hard on yourself. That's why they had two deep touchdowns against the Chargers in like two seconds. Chargers were like, oh shit, you can do that. And so I just think that there are areas where they can help themselves in ways they didn't last year. What that means for CJ Stroud, I don't know. Like, I just truly don't know. And I'm going to run this by you because this is kind of how I felt while watching him.

51:32Robert Mays: And it extends into the conversation we're about to have about the Jags. how I feel about CJ Stroud right now is adjacent to how I felt about Trevor Lawrence a couple of years ago, where you can see it, right? You can see the vision for what he would be at his best. You can understand that if you put this guy in the right circumstances, he is good enough for you to have a really good offense. You kind of have to tell yourself that story a little bit, but if you squint, you can believe it. I kind of feel like CJ Stroud is operating in a pretty similar space right now. And the Jags did pay Trevor Lawrence$55 million a year.

52:09Robert Mays: And when their offensive ecosystem got to a place that was really, really healthy, you saw what a quarterback like that could be and how good that offense could be. I kind of feel like C.J. Stroud is existing in a similar space to the one that Trevor Lawrence has over the last couple seasons.

52:26Derrik Klassen: I like that take a lot. And I do think, well, Trevor can't even relate to this because I do think, and they were abysmal, we'll say it one more time, but two horrific playoff days are coloring a lot of perceptions here because y 'all already made the point. Of course, it's not all good, and we know the reasons why. Go dig through C.J. Stroud's regular season. I promise you, statistically, tape-wise, all that stuff, it's not as bad as what you're imagining. Not even close. I'll throw in the Seattle game. this Monday night football. Sure. A lot of people were watching it, got his ass kicked. Those, the two playoff games in the Seattle game are doing a lot of heavy lifting for what CJ Stroud, what the perception is right now.

53:11Derrik Klassen: I don't think the reality is that bad. And it does make me a little bit, the idea of paying him makes me a little bit nervous just because of what, where the top of the market is right now. And it's been diminishing returns a little bit over the course of his career where the good is only coming in flashes and in general it's trending downward from where it was when he was a rookie but he's 24 years old it my eyebrows would raise if they paid cj stroud this summer but i would i would have i wouldn't have a very hard time rationalizing it when you consider his age improving the the cast of players around him and being able to get it done quickly so you can space it out over more years.

53:54Derrik Klassen: Like, I could understand the rationale, even if it would make me a little bit nervous.

53:57Robert Mays: I think I'm fine with them waiting until after this season. That's what I would do, too.

54:01Derrik Klassen: But if they decided to, I don't think it's like the dumbest thing anybody's ever done, I guess, is the point I would be making.

54:09Robert Mays: I think I'd be fine with them just giving themselves another year to see what he looks like in this offense, give yourself a little bit more information, and then make the decision from there.

54:16Derrik Klassen: And that seems to be what they're planning on doing.

54:19Dave Helman: I would probably pay him right now, But if they wanted to do that, I would get it because then if they get a satisfactory answer, I honestly don't think it matters what you're paying the quarterback. Like if you think he's good enough to be paid, it does not really matter when or how much you do it for.

54:31Derrik Klassen: It's funny because in 2023, I think a lot of a lot of people, probably myself included, if I went back and listened to everything I've ever said, got out over their skis about how quickly he was good. And that's why I think people probably get annoyed when you're like, well, it's a small sample size. Let's wait and see. But this is exactly why, like the odds that anybody's just going to grow in a linear progression are slim. And of course, the downturn was coming for CJ Stroud. I'll say again, especially because I don't think the Texans did a good enough job putting him in a good position to begin with.

55:05Derrik Klassen: But in the big picture, I feel rock solid about him. Like, that's what I said. That's what I was trying to say at the top. Like, I'm not. I don't think CJ Stroud forgot how to do this. Like, I'm not overly worried that he's, like, a bust and the Texans are going to have to reexamine their options at quarterback.

55:23Robert Mays: That's not what I'm worried about either. To me, it's more about, like, where does this settle? Like, where does this settle and what does that mean? And I think the way that I'm leaning is CJ Stroud kind of falls into that group. Again, like, I'm just thinking about him in the same way I was thinking about Trevor Lawrence a year ago, two years ago, where it's like, on any given day, he's probably the 14th best quarterback in the league, but there are moments and stretches and situations in which he can feel like the seventh best quarterback in the league, the eighth best quarterback in the league.

55:54Robert Mays: That guy's probably worth paying at the top of the market because if you can reach those heights in the right situation and the rest of your team, which the Texans, the rest of the Texans, there's plenty to like about that. That becomes really dangerous right like that's exactly what sam darnold was for the seahawks last year like that type of quarterback is worth having in like a broader championship recipe and i kind of feel like that is where we're trending with cj stroud is him being that type of quarterback and i again

56:26Dave Helman: i think he is clearly a quarterback that is worth paying and i think my other thing is the the i think we've gotten spoiled by the young quarterbacks who are just immediately like top four guys. Josh Allen, he took a little bit longer, but by year three was that guy. Patrick Mahomes, as soon as he came into the league. Lamar Jackson, as soon as he became a starter, were special guys. But they were obviously special physical talents. I think these guys that have good tools, not great tools, and have shown some ability of something the way that C.J. Stroud did, especially as a rookie. I think we just have to be more patient with those guys.

57:00Dave Helman: The guys that fall into the bucket of Trevor Lawrence. I think you can make the argument Jared Goff was this level of talent cj stroud like i think those guys it just kind of does take a little bit longer to bake because they have fewer in a given play fewer chances to just pull the ripcord and do something special because they have a brett farve level arm and so i think it just there are more ups and downs with these guys and we should be i think more okay understanding that their prime is coming when they are 27 28 29 years old and just getting them there i think is important we've seen it happen so many

57:34Robert Mays: times with these guys who have hit that second stage of their careers and that's when they've been really fully formed like we can win with this guy versions of themselves jared goff again bring up sam darnold like it's happened multiple times over the last few years the problem is that if you have a championship caliber roster in that intermediate stage before they get there i think that's where it becomes a little bit frustrating it's like you have this defense that operates at this special special level and if you're a Texans fan do you have time to wait three years for CJ Stroud to hit that point in his career and are you do you want to be paying him 50 million dollars in that intermediate period where he's still figuring out how to get there that those are points of tension that I think or it doesn't mean he's not worth paying but it does make it a frustrating process

58:23Derrik Klassen: this is the existential dilemma for every team with a young quarterback who didn't immediately win MVP or the Super Bowl. I mean, and for that matter, the dread comes for everybody but the Chiefs eventually because there's been no shortage of angst around Lamar and the Ravens, even though he's been this incredible success story all through his career. So get in line, I guess. I mean, that's the problem all teams with young quarterbacks are dealing with.

58:51Robert Mays: All right, let's take another quick break and then come back and chat a little about another team in the AFC South and what the end of their season looked like.

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1:00:51Robert Mays: Our final lingering question, David. was the second half of the Jacksonville Jaguars season in which they were a top five offense by a lot of metrics, for example, fourth in EPA per dropback for Trevor Lawrence per next gen from weeks 10 onward. Was this real? Was the second half surge from the Jaguars an indication of what we should expect from them moving forward? It's one of the most dangerous questions you can post to somebody. That's why we're asking it.

1:01:20Derrik Klassen: Do you believe in the Jacksonville Jaguars? And you know what? I decided that I do. And there are some variables here that we can discuss as we get into it. But it is interesting to me. Oh, man, I'm really I'm stepping into an anthill right here. But it is interesting to me that we are willing to lay this crazy amount of groundwork and supposition about the sustainability and success of the Chicago Bears because of their play caller. and their quarterback. And I mean, it might just be because they're the Jags and they're a small market and they're a cursed franchise. But like that conversation doesn't seem to be percolating around the Jags, even though they have a very similar combo, like a incredibly talented quarterback who seemed to finally tap into that with a fantastic play caller.

1:02:13Derrik Klassen: And Liam Cohen, who now has a two-year sample size of doing it with the Buccaneers to the point where he got a head coaching job out of it. And it wasn't all great, but eventually turned that into a really well-oiled machine that got to, what was it, 13 wins and a division title. And I feel like there's a lot less benefit of the doubt about what's going on in Jacksonville, even though it seems very similar to what the Bears have.

1:02:41Robert Mays: Can I play devil's advocate a little bit and tell you what I think are the important distinctions between those two situations and why, even if I, and I think my answer to the question is, I do believe in what happened in the second half of the Jags last year. So I don't want to put that aside. There are two things that I think make the situations different. Last year in the second half of the season, the Jacksonville Jaguars per next gen at a 33 and a half percent success rate on under center runs.

1:03:05Derrik Klassen: Okay. See, I did say there are variables. It's wild. It's wild how their run game went into the tank during the time when they got really good. Like it was absolutely abysmal.

1:03:16Robert Mays: So I think that the found what you're building this thing on to me is shakier in Jacksonville than it is in Chicago, because I think the run game obviously was a huge question for the Jags on the back half of last year. And the Bears obviously have questions about their offensive line at a couple of different spots. The Bears have difference makers up front in the way that the Jags do not. And so I think the offensive line quality and especially the star power and kind of like game changing players there combined with the run game. I think that you're just building this Jaguars optimism on somewhat shakier ground than you're building your Bears optimism.

1:03:53Robert Mays: That would be my pushback.

1:03:54Derrik Klassen: No, that's a valid that's a valid counterpoint. Running the football is I mean, is and always will be a core foundation of this whole thing. And that was so my caveat, having said all of that very nice shit that I just said, the the way the run game fell off for the Jags in the home stretch and their approach to it this year is very interesting to me.

1:04:20Robert Mays: That to me becomes like the biggest question.

1:04:21Derrik Klassen: letting HN walk out the door, which I have no issue with at all, but two young draft picks and Chris Rodriguez being apparently your answer to it. And from the sounds of what's coming out of Jacksonville and what was said during their off season program, like a lot of belief that that can work. I'm willing to listen because I respect Liam Cohen, but it is very interesting to me that it was the worst thing they did offensively during the time when they were very good overall. and they took a very bargain hunting approach to fixing it this year.

1:04:57Robert Mays: I don't want to go too far to the negative and like what needs to change and what needs to get better because I do think that tying in what they want to be on the ground to what they were throwing the ball last year, it's worth the conversation. It's probably where I want to end this discussion. Let's start, Derek, though. But let's for a second, though, sit with the things that did go well in the back half of last year and whether those things in your mind can be projectable moving forward. So when you look at what the passing game was for the Jaguars in the back half of last season, how real do you think that version of this team was?

1:05:29Robert Mays: And do you think that is built on the right stuff?

1:05:31Dave Helman: I think that element of it definitely is. I think Liam Cohen is definitely good at this. I think he understands how to use his players. I mean, as soon as they, Jacoby Myers was barely in the building and they understood how to use him, which I think is like really impressive. I think just generally they do a really good job of that. So I think that he is a good play caller. And even though the run game was bad, I at least found it interesting. And we talked about this, I think, during the playoff run, especially the Bills game. They at least, like, found these bullshit one-off runs that could get them an explosive every now and then.

1:06:04Dave Helman: It's all they had. But it was at least to me like, okay, they could, even though they can't block up the normal stuff, they could at least, like, scheme up these plays in a pinch. And I do think that that was actually, that's an impressive notch for Liam Cohen. I also obviously think that Trevor is a good quarterback and like I think because of what you were talking about with the offensive line and the run game I think the foundation that this is built on is going to lead to some more volatility and a quarterback like Trevor Lawrence you might get some of those like Dak Prescott years where he just throws like 15 interceptions because he's just chucking the ball in there like that can happen because I think of the foundation but I think that he's a good player and I think I think what I've really started to appreciate about trevor especially this past year he's not the most accurate quarterback but when you scale for how far he's throwing the ball down the field like how often he's targeting 15 16 20 yards down the field he actually is relatively accurate like i went on true media and scaled it like air yards on the on the x-axis y-axis like the pfs uh off target rating the guys in his zip goad are like jordan love and matthew stafford like it's he is that kind of passer which like those guys have frustrating misses but you live with them more when they're 15 20 yards down the field and so I actually do think you saw him get more comfortable with the offense you saw the offense obviously Liam Cohen is scheming these guys up well and I think a second year in the system is going to do it's going to do well for Trevor in terms of like understanding the you know how to get through his progressions and stuff but I also think for the receivers just in terms of being in the right spots for him because he is a quarterback like some great ones are this way Philip Rivers was this way.

1:07:41Dave Helman: Dak is this way. He's going to anticipate the route and he's going to throw it. Whether or not you are in the right spot is on you. And I do think a second year for those receivers doing that will help them.

1:07:51Robert Mays: I think the reliability of those guys in those situations went a long way in that mindset and that version of Trevor Lawrence looking as good as it did. Because when you don't have guys that you can rely on, if you're going to play like that, that's when it can get really ugly. And that's what it looked like at times over the first half of the season when they were like a bad offense. They were a bad passing offense for stretches of the first half of the season. But when you get Parker Washington and Jacoby Myers playing more outsized roles where it's like, I can rip this shit. And I have a pretty good understanding of what's going to happen on the other end of it.

1:08:23Robert Mays: That's when you get the best version of Trevor Lawrence. And so I, I think that's a big part of it. And you saying that like 12, 15, 18 yards down the field, to me, the most encouraging, exciting part of what the Jags were in the second half of the season is that was the offense. The offense was just them taking 15-yard intermediate like missile shots over and over and over again because that's always what Trevor Lawrence should have been. From the start, this is the type of quarterback we should have asked him to be. His most frustrating stretches, the game I remember that it's still just, I can't remember what year it was.

1:09:00Robert Mays: When they played the Niners, I think it was during the 2023 season. It was unwatchable. Like the game was unwatchable because everything they were trying to do, they were operating within like 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and the Niners were just hammering down on everything. And so opening things up for him just a little bit and kind of coaxing him into a more aggressive version of the quarterback that we had seen previously, that's what got us to the place where we were with Trevor Lawrence in the back half of the season. That was the best version of him. And I think that to me that where we're trying to square this, so in the back half of the year last year, The Jags only were in the gun, they were in the gun 58 % of the time, which is a below average rate.

1:09:42Robert Mays: Like most teams are well up over 60. But that 42%, they were one of the best gun teams in the NFL throwing the ball. When you were just putting him back there and just letting him go to work on a lot of these like intermediate to deep concepts, he looked incredible. They averaged 6.6 yards per play out of the shotgun in the second half of the season. 6.6. It was 5.1 over the first half of the year. Here's the rub. They averaged four yards per play under center in the back half of last year. The run game was awful, and the play-action game didn't feel completely tied into what they were trying to do in the run game because they had realized that if we just line up in the gun, this is who we want to be.

1:10:24Robert Mays: And so tying all that together, that's going to be the question. they were running the ball out of from under center 76 76 percent of the time in the second half of last year that was a top eight rate and almost all the other teams that were in that range chiefs bengals commanders teams that are only under center to run the ball situationally and so they're gonna have to find a world that bridges all this stuff together if you're gonna be a team that wants to play a decent amount of under center which is where liam cohen comes from then you're going to need to figure out what sort of run game ties to that how often you're using play action to tie to that you can't just survive throwing the ball out of the gun and whipping this thing around in the way that you did like that's a really really good starting place and an exciting one but the things that you're building around that are going to have to be sturdier if you're going to continue to be a top five to seven offense over the course of the entire next season That's where I land with this.

1:11:21Derrik Klassen: Which if I'm looking at, if I'm trying to be optimistic and look at it with teal glasses, you could look at it and say, well, this is really how you wanted to address your running back room in the wake of losing Travis Achan. But for what we know about how successful Liam Cohen's been with his running backs and his running game.

1:11:42Robert Mays: Who knew Bucky Irving's name before that got started?

1:11:44Derrik Klassen: Exactly. Thinking about that and then thinking, okay, you're building this around. Basil Tootin and LaQuint Allen, who you had a hand in drafting. You were there to draft those guys. And then identifying Chris Rodriguez, it's an interesting choice because he's not this high profile player. But again, if I'm trying to think of it optimistically, Liam Cohen clearly sees something that he really, really likes and thinks will work for what he's trying to do to sign that specific player into a role like that where maybe it'll work way more beautifully than outsiders are giving it credit for when you have like such a specific view for what you want to do.

1:12:25Robert Mays: The running back part of it is worth mentioning. But the thing I keep coming back to, I don't know how you felt, Derek, but when I was going back and watching some of those games late in the season, the Borkutcher pick just started to make more and more sense with each passing play that I watched. Like when you watch that offense, they so desperately need like a big bodied wide tight end that is part of their plans. And I think that to me goes a long way in making sure that the ground game is better than it was at the end of last year, because you're just asking Brenton Strange to do stuff last season or Quentin Morris or whoever it was that they just weren't set up to do.

1:13:00Robert Mays: And so I think adding that type of skillset to the offense in service of trying to make sure that you get your running game to where you want it to be, it actually makes more sense when I go back and watch it than it did even on draft day where they

1:13:12Dave Helman: overdrafted somebody like that it it does make sense but I think for me it's like I think the two tight end movement makes a lot of sense but I still do feel like it's a little bit of like ties the offense together sort of thing and you still need the offensive line to actually do a lot of the work for you that's my big hang up with like how real is this again I think Liam Cohen is real I think Trevor Lawrence is real I think the pass catchers are real like that room is obviously really deep. And even Brenton Strange, I think is a really good pass catcher. The offensive line to me, and I said this even during the season when they were good, and I'll say it again, because it's all the same players, basically.

1:13:48Dave Helman: It felt like they were getting away with it. Like they were getting away with really good offense, despite this very obvious issue. And I think you can get away with things in the NFL for a month, two months, three months, one season, maybe doing it over a sustained amount of time when people now know what you're about, They know what your offense looks like. They know how you're going to call these things. I think that's where it gets trickier. And then you're also relying on players who have not really had that impressive of peaks to like kind of play at a relatively high level for what they are like.

1:14:20Dave Helman: Ezra Cleveland, I think probably played some of his best football that he's ever played last year. Is he going to do that again when that has not always been a sustained thing for him? Same thing with, I think, a lot of the rest of the interior. And then Colvin Lannan, I think there's an optimistic spin that like, OK, now they're going into the season with him as the left tackle in a way that was obviously not true going into last year. He started as six offensive linemen, eventually moves into a starting role. He also lost the end of his season to a knee injury. And I just don't know how that's going to play for a guy who's like never really been a full-time starter.

1:14:51Dave Helman: And so I think it's really hard to get there for me on the offensive line. Like just to throw some of the numbers out from last year, this is week 10 and on, by the way. So like when the offense was really good, 39.5 % pressure rate allowed, according to True Media, that was 26th just behind the Cardinals on just plays where the the time to throw was under three seconds so obviously that's not including sacks or scrambles still 23rd so even not on like plays where Trevor Lawrence is holding the ball a lot when you go without play action they were 27th at a 40.3 % pressure rate like they could not protect even when they wanted to so it was Trevor having to make a lot of these plays under pressure and then the run game stuff I mean we've all kind or litigated this entire time.

1:15:33Dave Helman: So like, it's just hard for me to see how they can get away with high level offense without that high of a floor again.

1:15:42Robert Mays: To me, like the best version of this, like the best path, like what type of team do you want to feel like and still be a top five offense is akin to like what some of those Niners teams have felt like over the last few years. Like that to me feels like if they're going to be a top five offense, do they scheme around, overcome, transcend some of the, they're not like bottom tier groups, but they're average at best, right? Like that's what a lot of those Niners offensive lines have been. You can be a really, really dynamic offense constructed that way. And I think that's probably the best case scenario for like this type of Jaguars team.

1:16:22Derrik Klassen: And I think what I would say, ruminating on how we started this, I think these are all very valid concerns. And this is over a longer timeline. Like, I mean, if we're talking about 26, the Jags offense could be very real and move forward into then and have sustainability moving forward into this year. I'd still probably pick them as a candidate for regression just because it's hard to win 13 games. Like that's not a controversial case.

1:16:52Robert Mays: And the defense, they created a ton of turnovers. Like there's a lot of like volatility to what the Jaguars were after, even if you're optimistic.

1:16:57Derrik Klassen: In a big enough picture, I believe in the play caller and I believe in the quarterback, especially working with this play caller, that I think I just believe the Jags can find a baseline of sustainability, even if this season isn't quite as amazing as the last eight weeks of last season.

1:17:15Dave Helman: I think that's exactly where I'm at. This duo of Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence, I'm so bought in. Does that mean they will be as good next year as we want them to be? I think because of the offensive line, I have too many questions about that.

1:17:28Robert Mays: What to you is a positive outcome? Like if they end up as the 11th best offense in the league, is that a disappointment? Is that what we should expect? I think that's totally acceptable, actually. That's kind of where I fall to.

1:17:39Dave Helman: Right, because they were, I mean, what did you say? Like kind of like fifth, sixth, they ended the year. Like if you kind of wait it for how they were like from weeks 10 and on, that was probably them running a little hot, running a little pure in a way that they're probably not going to. So if they fall, if the offensive line and run game improves a little bit, and then we assume some amount of regression from them just not running as hot as they were, I think like around 11th is probably a good outcome. I just think that it would be easy to look at Trevor finally coming along. We're excited about the play caller.

1:18:10Dave Helman: They've got all these weapons to be like, man, they can just be this electric 30 points a game offense. And it just, again, I think it's hard to get away with this level of offensive line play year after year. And that's not even accounting for the fact that, like, maybe they lose a guy or two, and then they're picking into depth for starters who are already, like, fringe starter-level quality guys. So I think that's where a lot of it comes to me.

1:18:32Robert Mays: They finished 11th in a weighted offensive DVOA last year.

1:18:35Derrik Klassen: That's where they finished. That sounds about right. Especially, it was, I mean, it wasn't always great. And by the way, it was bad over the first half of the season. Can we, in that vein, can we at least say the name Brian Thomas Jr.? Yes. You can't say it once. I'm just really, this is the kiss of death. As soon as I say this, something's going to happen. But I really appreciate, as fun as it was to speculate about him being a trade piece, I appreciate that they seem to be loving him up and saying, like, no, you're going to be an integral part of this. Like, we're not giving up on a guy who had superstar potential as a rookie just because year two was up and down.

1:19:14Robert Mays: One of the best parts of having a Parker Washington and a Kobe Myers allows you to fit Brian Thomas Jr. into the role that he actually should fit into. Like he's a better player because those two guys are there because you're not going to be asking him to do the things he's not good at. And so an entire season of those guys playing the correct roles and what that version of it looks like, I'm very much looking forward to seeing what that is. All right. That is all we've got for today. We will be back tomorrow. We've done a couple of interviews on the show over the last couple of weeks, just about, you know, some topics that we've are interested in, curious about doing that again tomorrow.

1:19:52Robert Mays: We're going to chat a little bit about what a modern NFL GM should look like in 2026 with a former member of the Eagles front office, Jake Rosenberg. Really enjoyed the conversation with Jake. Really interesting perspective just about what that role is in the modern NFL. What are the skill sets necessary to be a really good football executive? Where should teams be looking for these sorts of guys? So really enjoyed that discussion. Hope you guys do as well. For now, that is all we got. Appreciate you listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode.

1:20:29Robert Mays: If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

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