What happened to the NFL's elite?

0:26Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. below 40 % for each of those teams. The Ravens are going to make the playoffs, but they're going to make the playoffs in an awful AFC North. It's almost by default. The Eagles, there's like open mutiny going on with the state of the Philadelphia Eagles. It really does feel like this year specifically, the teams we expected to be elite just haven't been. The mainstays, the things we can rely on haven't been quite as reliable. And so today I invited both Deontay Lee and our old friend Mitchell Schwartz, former Chiefs offensive tackle on, to talk about why this has happened.

1:01Why have these teams fallen short this year? Why have they been disappointing? And what can we learn from it? With Deontay, we hit the Lions, the Eagles, and the Ravens, and then we really dug into the Chiefs with Mitch. And with Deontay specifically, we tried to find some through-ons, some lessons, some bigger picture takeaways that we might be able to land on from these teams being a little bit disappointing and just taking a step back compared to what we're used to from them. So let's get to that conversation with Deontay right now.

1:35Joining us now, it is our old friend from The Ringer, our buddy Deontay Lee. Deontay, how are you doing, man? I'm doing well, man. Glad to be on the show as always. I see we got a little less mustache now than I think the last time we were on. I think it's just that I have more beard. That's the only reason. That might be it. We might be balancing it out. The distribution is a little more equal. That's more a matter of laziness than anything else. I'll tell you that right now. It snowed this weekend intensely in Chicago. And so I have that like first bout of winter depression. And so I just decided not to take care of myself over the last five days.

2:08And so that's why I've let it get to this place. There's nothing I can do but empathize because at my home, we were talking about how we can't regulate temperature when it drops below 60 degrees. So that says a lot about California versus the Midwest. was.

2:23We're going to have our own depressing conversation on this show today. You and I were going to do something different. And I was just kind of sitting with it on my 20 hour drive home from Florida, as I was thinking about the Eagles and that loss to the bears. And I was listening to some stuff and I'm like, this feels like a moment we need to sit in because as recently as like two or three weeks ago, we did an exercise on the show where we picked kind of the eight contenders as we went into the back half of the season. And I think even at that point, it was so easy to be sitting there and saying, well, come on, like, you're really not going to put the chiefs on there.

2:57You're really not going to put the Ravens on there. You're really not going to put the lions and the Eagles on there. Even then it felt like we were in a spot where they'll figure it out. They'll figure it out. I think we're past that now. I think even in the last three weeks, we've gotten to a place where you can't really convince yourself of that anymore. So I want to dig into this idea of how we got here. Like, why are the mainstay teams in the NFL, the teams we expect to be elite and we thought we're going to be elite coming into the season? What has killed them? What has made them fall off?

3:28And so just to get ahead of this, we're going to have a long, long Chiefs discussion after you and I get off with our old buddy, Mitchell Schwartz. He had a lot to say about why the Chiefs have arrived at this moment, especially on offense. So we're going to focus most of this conversation on the Ravens, the Eagles and the Lions. And we're going to try to figure out how much is this stuff linked? Can we learn any bigger picture lessons from this? Are these isolated incidents? Because something is happening and I want to try to sort through it as best we can. I'm with you on that, right? And I think that there are some through lines for some of the teams that I know that we said we wanted to talk about today.

4:03And then in some situations, you've got some like very specific issues, right? And it's just going to be a matter of what's your confidence level in these teams sorting it out, finding an alternative route. And I think that that's just kind of been the story of this season is that a lot of teams that we like to bank on being a certain kind of way or playing a certain kind of way or being introduced to variants now that we're just not accustomed to seeing them deal with. Coming into the season, just to put some like larger context in it before we dig into the specifics. four of the six teams in preseason Super Bowl odds were four of the teams we're going to talk about today.

4:36Ravens, Eagles, Chiefs, Lions. Right now, the Ravens are going to make the playoffs by default, right? They're going to make the playoffs because their division is garbage. And that's the only, that's really the only reason we're penciling them in. The Eagles have like a 98 % chance to make the playoffs. We'll talk about this. You're an Eagles fan. How are you feeling right now? Not great. Probably haven't felt great since about September. You know, I think the Bucks game was probably the last time I felt like I was watching a Super Bowl level team. There has never been a team as I've done this, maybe last year's chiefs to an extent, but the Eagles have done this so consistently.

5:08No team has had a multi-year run where their record was more disconnected to the vibes around the team than the 2023 to 2025 Philadelphia Eagles. No one in the history of my following of this sport. 100%. I mean, I remember having that moment where, you know, they're beating up on the Steelers and the Ravens last year. And you're like, okay, you know, they beat up on the Rams. You're like, I think we have something here. And then the Panthers game happens. And it's like, I can't, you can never just allow me to feel good about this. And now you're looking at the same situation now where you can make an argument that, hey, we're dealing with this tough schedule, first place, reigning champions, all the attrition that's going on with this roster and eight and four for just about everybody else in the context of this season will be a reason to celebrate.

5:50For me, I'm like, can we just finish this slow march to the divisional round, please. And Seattle or Los Angeles can maybe dispatch to this team and I can stop suffering on a personal level, I think is where I'm at now. The Lions are the last of these teams. They right now have a 30 % chance to make the playoffs per the athletics playoff simulator. So all of these teams that had the best Super Bowl odds coming into the year, they're supposed to be the teams again this season. It just has not felt like that. And so what I want to do, let's take all of these individually and then see if the end of this, there's some buckets that we can try to fill up that apply to all three of these teams.

6:25So let's start with the Lions. If you're trying to pin down why the 2025 version of the Lions is just a step down from the team that we had gotten used to over the last couple of years, how would you trace the Lions main culprits in landing in this spot? I think it's two things. I think one and maybe chiefly is offensive brain drain, right? Like, And I don't want to totally overplay it and say that Ben Johnson is the only reason why this offense existed the way that it did from 2022 to 2024. But you look at the way that they play now, especially on early downs, and so much of it feels like you're just playing the hits.

7:02And it's not that they're doing anything wrong. They come out, they get into heavy personnel. When they want to get explosive runs, they go outside zone. When they want to get efficient runs, they go duo and split zone. Nothing is wrong with playing that way at all. It's just not popping as often. And then I think and this is probably very particular, very acute for me because we're just coming off of that Green Bay game where Amon Ra gets hurt. And then they have to play a very specific way in the passing game. And it was kind of herky jerky. And then by the fourth quarter, things really kind of started to come apart for that offense.

7:31I do think, though, when I think of the Lions, especially last year, they had these modes of offense they could get into. The defenses just didn't have a good response for. Right. If they were going to get in the gun and spread it out, you knew Amon Ra St. Brown was either going to be running some choice route or something that was going to be the central piece of the progression. And Jared Goff had easy answers that way. He could read off of Amon Ra and say, hey, if you're tilting coverage to this guy, that probably means I have a one on one on the backside with Jamison Williams and I can go rip that dig right in the play action game.

8:00I can just see based off of leverage and how you guys want to play up front, whether or not these in breakers are going to be there. I think that because they don't have Sam Laporta, they haven't had as much access to those early downplay actions. Some of that is John Morton. I would say that over the last couple of weeks, we're seeing that Dan Campbell is having just as much struggles right after that commander's game, accessing those early downplay actions and being as explosive as this team wants to be. So it's brain drain from that perspective. It's Jared Goff kind of fading in the second halves of games as well against top competition.

8:29And I would say that those two things are leading the most, I think, to my discomfort with this team. Everything else with them has just kind of been the story of Detroit all year, whether it's variants with the defense and injuries. I would say that those two factors probably weigh heaviest for me. We'll get into injuries because obviously that's a huge part of this. But I think some of the structural considerations are important as we're trying to figure out why this feels a little bit different now than it did last year. So one thing that really jumped out to me, and I feel like you saw it most in the Vikings game.

8:56And I was trying to figure out why after the Vikings game, is that the moment where Dan Campbell was like, I need to wrestle back control of this. And for me, it was the amount of time they're spending in the shotgun in some of these games. And so the Vikings game, I think they were in gun like 83 % of the time, which was their highest rate all season. And they had multiple games where they were up in like the 70, 80 range. So I was looking at the numbers this year on first and second and medium and short, The Lions have been in the shotgun on 53 % of snaps per next gen, 53%. Last year, it was 33%.

9:33And so they've drifted away from that early down identity more often this year than they had last year. And that was kind of one of my worries about the John Morton experience is that when left to his own devices a little bit, are we going to see a guy that has more of a drop back kind of past game design background than somebody who is in charge of creating an offense where all the pieces are supposed to fit together. And I do think you saw a little bit more of that. And I think that some people are going to look at the season long numbers for the Lions and they're going to say, well, this is still a top five team by this metric and they're still scoring a lot of points.

10:10The number that really jumps out to me that explains the biggest difference between what the Lions have been offensively this year and what they were last year. Last year, opposing defenses had one game with a 60 % or better defensive success rate. It was just the game they had against the Texans one in 18 weeks. This year it's happened five times in 12 games. And so the aggregate of these numbers is still impressive because it's still a good team with a good offense, but the vacillations have just been so much more dramatic this year than they were last year. And I think part of that, like you're saying, is that them drifting away from some of the things that truly made them the Lions offense at their best.

10:51100%. And I think that, again, so many of these cases that we're going to cover today are just instructive in understanding how decision making can change for a team that you believe should play a certain way, right? When you change coordinators, it's less about the collection of plays and more about your personality and discipline, right? You knew that the Lions were going to play a certain way because Ben Johnson was disciplined and dedicated to a certain approach to offense. John Morton is not that. This was not John Morton's baby for the last three to four years. So I can totally understand from Dan Campbell's perspective when you're looking up on early downs and saying, why are we in the gun?

11:25Why are we running all this quick game? Why are we living this way when I'm used to us being in 12 personnel, Brock Wright in Panay Sewell or crushing you on the backside? And now Jameer Gibbs is cutting back for a 40 yard gain, right? That's the way that I know they want to live. You just don't have that style of offensive coordinator. And I would say even for Dan Campbell, I think that he is learning because the interior of the offensive line is not the same now as it was last year. And because they have not had as many advantageous game scripts this season, that it actually isn't as easy to just say, give me the play sheet.

11:56I'm going to call all the good plays as I think that he and Lions fans would like to have believed. Right. And like you said, this is not to I don't want to cast any aspersions on what this team can be. They still kind of do control their their route into the playoffs as long as they're able to win. They might need a little bit of help with Dallas maybe fading down the stretch to really kind of ensure that they can get in as a six or seven seed. But I don't feel the same way about this offense that, hey, independent of whatever their opponents are doing, we know that they're going to crush teams up front.

12:23We know they're going to get explosive plays off play action. And we know on third downs is still going to be comfortable for Jared Goff because he can go play matchup ball. Not having Sam Laporta, I would say specifically in the passing game, has really changed the way that they approach the drop back game. and I think that that's had a big impact on why we're seeing, like you said, more of those vacillations just in the performance, not just in how they line up and play, but their performance on the plays that they're running. The name that you just mentioned that I think is quietly very representative of this is Brock Wright.

12:52Because when I go back and I watch that Packers game, we'll talk about the interior of the offensive line. The decrease in quality in the interior of the offensive line has gone a long way in making the Lions feel the way that they felt outside of any structural considerations. But you go back and you watched that Packer game, the lack of oomph with their tight ends in the run game, you could feel that. And so I, we have to talk about injuries as part of this because the injuries at tight end, you feel those already. The fact that the interior of the offensive line was already a step down from what it was last year.

13:22And then you lose Christian Mahogany, who even if he had a few more issues in pass protection than the guards in the interior overall might've had in 2024, he was still a plus plus player in the run game. And so now you have a run game that the way the phrase I've kept coming back to this year is the teams that have a you run game. It's like, it doesn't matter what you're doing. We're going to do what we want. The Lions are no longer among those teams anymore. Right now they have a below average rushing, rushing success rate, the Detroit Lions. And if that's going to be the case, then everything else starts to become less important and less impactful.

13:59And so I think it really does start with the quality of the interior, the offensive line, and then some of the injuries that have hampered that version of this team as much as anything. 100%. And it just becomes harder to hide your quarterback's deficiencies. And I'm not, I've been one of the guys that have been very pro Jared Goff over this stretch, right? Even as the skepticism has risen, Detroit has obviously come up short in playoff games and against their best opponents over the last couple of years in ways that have been concerning to others. I've thought that their process in the passing game, the way that they have approached building this thing out around golf has been great.

14:31But when you do start stripping what they've had in terms of versatility at the tight end position, if Amara St. Brown doesn't look like a near triple crown winner, the way that he did earlier in this year and what he has at his best when he's been available to this team, it now is putting more on golf shoulders to have to be an expert with this progression to be able to evade pressure or anticipate pressure. And those are just not the kinds of qualities that we associate with him in his game even when he is really dialed in and i think that dan campbell is just struggling with how you build out a passing game with the quarterback that can't solve all of your problems when things start to fall apart along the margins right like i was i was chuckling going back and watching the green bay game because their first two third downs they run four verts and it's like well that looks like an offensive coordinator who saying hey i don't know what we're going to see from the defense right now based off of personnel and i don't know if my quarterback feels confident who he's throwing the ball to Everybody run deep, Jared, right?

15:23We're going to look for one-on-ones on the outside. If it's not there, throw the bender. And they were really struggling, I think, to pick things up in protection and to get Jared Goff quickly through his progressions in that way. I'm very curious over the last five weeks, if they take another personality shift, are they going to be more rigidly adherent to we're going to be under center on early downs? We're going to try to mash you with first down run, something they really haven't done this year. I would say on a per game basis, they are much lower in early down run team than I think people would assume.

15:50Some of that is the John Morton weeks. But I would say even over the last month or so, I think they understand that they can't crush teams. But I do wonder if they're going to get into more of a protective. Let's not expose our offense to the kind of variance it's been exposed to over the first two and a half months of the season. Try to mash them, get more into play action and just see if you can get Jamison Williams, who I think is quietly having a nice breakout over the last month. Get him more involved and let him be the driver as well as Jameer Gibbs on your explosive passes. The pressure thing, I think, is really important to point out.

16:22I think that's a combination of a lot of different stuff. It's about quality of interior pass protection. I think that as you look at their performance against the Blitz in the back half of the season compared to the first half of the season, they've been a below average team when Blitzed over the last six weeks. That is not a Lions team we have come to know. And I wonder where that's coming from. How much of that is Frank Ragnow handling protections? because in this offense, the way their protection plan works is it's very similar to the Shanahan sort of system where the center's doing a lot of the work and then the quarterback has veto power for the Lions.

16:54So Jared has more control than a typical Shanahan system quarterback would. And I know that Ben doesn't come from that world, but their protection rules are rooted in that. So you lose the center, how much is that influencing it? And how much of it is influenced by losing your offensive coordinator, who's a detail psycho? So I think that there are two different things that are bleeding into that. You look at the numbers. The Lions have the quickest time to pressure allowed in the NFL this season among any offense. It's 2.48 seconds. The total quick, the quick pressure percentage per next gen stats is at 18 % this year compared to 12 % last year.

17:31That's a significant jump if you look at where that puts you in the overall rankings. And so there's just a lot of stuff happening here. My thought about this, as it kind of lends to some of the other teams that we're going to talk about, I think that we, in this world where some of these teams that don't have elite quarterbacks, and I like Jared as a player, I've been very impressed by what he's done. He's not one of those guys. Jalen Hurts is not one of those guys. And if we're trying to draw through lines, the first one that I think is important for us to be reminded of. If you do not have a hyper elite quarterback, you are more susceptible to the vacillations in performance because of what the circumstances in the environment look like.

18:16And for both of these teams, for both the Eagles and the Lions, you have a diminished product among your offensive line and you're dealing with a new play caller. And that is enough to seriously shake the foundation of what the offense looks like when you don't have a problem solver at quarterback and neither of these teams have problem solvers at quarterback right it's one of those like welcome to the rest welcome to the regular life in the nfl for these teams that have typically been able to just kind of roll the ball out and just step on their opponents next right and that is why i think i've been in my head and really kind of just throwing stuff at the wall in terms of being solution based with Detroit, because I don't know that there is an easy answer.

19:00If you're not going to have your tight ends that allow you to put a lot of stress on defenses in terms of what personnel they put on the field, if you're not comfortable being a shotgun quick game, we're going to pass on early downs and run on late downs type of offense, which is just not the way that this team was thought to be built. You know, when Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell come in, you're going to struggle to find a rhythm. And I think that you felt that specifically on Thanksgiving day against the Packers who are athletic enough and disciplined enough defensively to really kind of put the onus upon you as an offense to have to solve those problems.

19:35And I wonder for them if that's going to last the rest of the year. I love this because I think the biggest difference when I watched the Lions play, the Lions look like a very different team against the defenses that beat themselves again compared to against the defenses that are going to force you to beat them. That is there are two versions of the Lions this year. And I think that's a really good way to put it. Are you disciplined and athletic enough to make them beat you? And the teams that have forced them to do that, they have struggled with this year. And that just wasn't the case last year.

20:07It didn't matter who the defense was for most of the last couple of seasons. They were going to beat you anyway. And right now they do not have that gear to them. They're feasting on the bears and the commanders and teams like that. And that's just not the team they had to be when they were at their best in 2024 and in 2023. All right, before we move on, let's take a quick break.

20:32The draw for next summer's world cup is on Friday at 12 PM Eastern, 5 PM GMT. Where will the global of powers end up? What might a group of death look like in this new 48 team format? You can watch the athletic FC podcast live stream reacting to all the major fallout immediately after the draw has wrapped on their YouTube channel. All right. Speaking of the connections between the lions and the Eagles, let's get to your Philadelphia Eagles. I don't have as many notes for this section because I figured I could just let you cook here as you're trying to pin down what is wrong with the Philadelphia Eagles right now, where would you start that conversation?

21:09It's detail. It is 100 percent detail, detail and detail. And I mean, this is like cascades from the top all the way down to the players. Right. There are so many times. And I know that you guys have noted this on your guys's podcast when you're recapping games. There are so many times with Philadelphia where you'll be watching the game and say, oh, that's a quirky way to get to a run at a 12 or 13 person. Oh, you've got an extra offensive lineman on. OK, this is interesting. you're running this motion to try to set up a defense to do x y or z thing and then you go through the rest of the game and those four snaps that you took a note on in the first half never get any payoff you don't get a oh they ran that motion again and went play action and got a shot play off of it or got an easy look to aj brown or devontae smith off of it it always feels like they are just borrowing from whatever they feel is necessary to win in a one week sample type of way and then you layer on top of that the fact that they are risk averse as an organization So now you're taking a lot of opportunities to go attack off the board because they clearly don't want to turn the ball over.

22:09They don't want to take negative plays. Not that that's helped, by the way. They're awful with penalties. They've had some bad turnover luck over the last couple of weeks that have really exposed some of the issues with approaching things this way. But I think that so much of this is Kevin Petulo and Nick Sirianni, I think, trying to avoid the mistakes of 2023 to a degree that is making them a worse product on a week by week basis. right I felt like the lesson they learned in 23 was hey we probably can't just live in 11 personnel shotgun all day because defenses are smart enough now to be able to pick out how you're going to set up your protections and really blitz you and cause problems and they had the answers they had then they don't want to borrow from now right they don't want to run rpos they're not running as many screens the amount of games I've watched this week this year where I'm like hey you know what would be great right now a quick little smoke screen to Devontae Smith a quick smoke screen to like A.J.

22:57Brown, let's make it like a glorified punt return if your offensive line has issues. That's another thing. They have definitely taken a step back up front. Right. And that goes all the way across the board outside of Lane Johnson. I would say even Jordan Mailata has not looked like the same player this year as to what we've seen over the last half decade or so. And definitely along the interior, there's just not as much pop. There's not as much power. There's not as much athletic juice. And some of that is injuries. Well, Landon Dickerson, Cam Juergens, I would say specifically and Tyler Steen is just not really built to be the kind of body mover that they've had at their best as their guard either.

23:28And then I think back to the detail piece of it in the passing game, the amount of times where you'll look at the design of a play and say, this makes sense. Actually, there are throws there and you're looking at the quarterback and you're like, why is your footwork not timed up with the way these routes are breaking? Why are your eyes not tied to the progression? And it's hard to, I think, to met out where the blame lies with that or where the responsibility lies to fix because we do know what we know about Jalen Hurts and his style of play we don't know a lot about Kevin Petulo and I think that the way that this offense has wrecked itself has left me kind of confused as to is this Jalen Hurts aborting certain place so to speak and just not working through the progression is this Kevin Petulo not really being detailed enough as a designer of an offense to get his quarterback tied up properly in his drop back to the way that routes are breaking?

24:22Or is this just a team that is kind of running out of gas after making these deep playoff runs over the last few years? And we're just starting to see just small bits of attrition really start to add up all together this year in a way that is just going to be particular to 2025. I think I've been juggling these ideas all year long. And I think that the only thing I feel strongly about is that they're not detailed and they're not prepared for the kind of ways that they're being defended right now. I'm putting you on the spot, but I'm just curious if you have like an example on hand. Is there an element of the offense that you saw last year with Kellen Moore that you think was buttoned up and detailed enough that has not been this year?

25:01Like what is something that you saw being executed at a high level? Let's talk about the passing game more so because I think the run game, the offensive line problems and some of the structural issues, I think that is a different conversation. But when you think about the pass game specifically, what is something that does not feel as clean and put together now as it might have in 2024 when they just had a little bit of a different gear to them. It's 100 % teeing up plays that are going to put Devontae Smith and A.J. Brown at the center of Jalen Hurts' level of attention where his eyes are at, where he's progressing through plays.

25:33That has probably been the most frustrating thing for me, right? I brought up the Steelers game, I brought up the Ravens game, I brought up the Rams game. All three of those games were decided ultimately by Saquon Barkley just being an alien last year. But a lot of what kept that offense on pace, if teams were loading up the line of scrimmage, is that they seem to have basic, easily repeatable answers based on what they thought the defense was going to throw at them. It wasn't always a dig route, right? I would actually say that Jalen Hurts is better at working the middle of the field this year than almost any other point in his career, which is weird to say as this passing offense has been just totally bereft of any kind of rhythm or layers that really threaten defenses.

26:16I just feel like when I think about the pure drop back game, not play action, which they didn't do a ton of last year, not really RPOs where almost every team is kind of borrowing from the same concepts, just purely trying to get the ball outside the numbers to their best receivers. I felt like their answers were much better last year, whether it's those sale routes, whether it's just those bench routes where guys are just running 10 to 12 yards and just break into the sideline comebacks all the timing on those throws you just do not see it this year there were so many times against the Bears on Black Friday where I'm like you know Dennis Allen is going to try to load up the line of scrimmage and he's going to trust his corners to handle themselves and cover three why are we not getting comebacks why are we not getting these bench routes is the wind a factor in that yes and they have played in some rough conditions whether it's the Packers Alliance game or the Bears game most recently but it still has been frustrating, I think, that they have not gotten those easy throws outside the numbers that has really kind of defined what the Eagles are at their best in the drop back game.

27:14That combined with just their inability to run on their own terms. I think that's how you land in this place. And I think last year, and we've talked about this a little bit on the show over the course of the season, but I think it's worth bringing up here again. I think last year, what happened in the back half of the year was almost a bad thing in some ways in terms of the lessons they learned from it. Because I think one of their main takeaways in the back half of last season was it doesn't matter what teams are doing against us. We will be able to run the ball. If you want to load up the line of scrimmage, good, right?

27:47If you want to play that things like the Rams tried to do in those couple of games where you're going to cram eight bodies within three or four yards of the line of scrimmage, great, because he's going to break one. We're going to take it 70 yards and we're going to swing the game on a single play. That just hasn't happened this year to the same extent. They are 15th in explosive runs on running back runs this year. And that's better than it was for the first half of the season. They have the third highest run stuff rate in the league on running back runs this season. The only teams behind them are the Raiders and the Browns.

28:18And I think part of the issue here is that they can't run the ball at you no matter what you're doing. If you look at the percentage of light boxes that they're seeing last year, it was 33 % of runs. This year it's 44%. And they just can't run the ball at will in the way they could last year, no matter what teams are doing to them. And so I think that's landed them in this place. Well, and it's a predictable thing, right? I think, again, you learn the right lessons from the mistakes you're made in 2023, which is that trying to live almost exclusively in 11 personnel is a great way to get your offense hurt once they have you figured out, right?

28:55So you've seen more personnel variation. We've seen Cam Latu. We've seen Grant Calcaterra. We've seen them use Fred Johnson as a sixth offensive lineman. All that is great. You know what happens when you take a wide receiver off and you bring a tight end on? They get bigger too, and they come closer to the line of scrimmage, which actually puts more onus on you as an offensive play caller to have the right answers. That's what's been special about the Shanahan years. McVay, when they were trying to run more condensed sets and trying to run the ball out of 11 personnel in ways that remind you of a 12, 21 personnel team.

29:27That's been the hallmark of Detroit at their best is that they know when we put on 12, 13 personnel, extra offensive linemen, you're going to go single high and you're going to walk guys up to the line of scrimmage. And it doesn't matter because when we run power, A, we're going to move your big guys. Your big guys can't with our big guys. And B, we know exactly based on the front is what that we are getting, what the next answer is and how to set that up throughout the game. I keep coming back to that Ravens game, but I think so much about that fourth quarter. And I was texting some buddies when that was happening last year.

29:59I was like, they're going to go counter six times in a row. And I swear to God, on that last drive, they ran counter F like six or seven times in a row. And Saquon Barkley busted a big one that ultimately closed out the game. When's the last time that Philadelphia has been able to do that? Some of that is attrition up front. Exactly. They can't really mash you the way that they want to. there's not enough detail in the run game they're not building layers off of that and this is something i've talked with shield a bunch on our show at the ringer is like you don't get to have it always at all times as an offense if you don't want to run your quarterback you don't want to run play action you don't want to live in under center that much and you don't want to run rpos you know you have to be to be effective peyton manning in 2006 okay if that's the way that you want to live Or you have to have the most dominant offensive line in the league.

30:47Full. Absolutely. Exactly. You don't have either of those options. Jalen has been much better than I think some of the criticism he's gotten. Even for me, I think I've walked back some of the blame I've laid on his shoulders as the season has gone on. But if we're being honest, like, you know, you're not going to be able to line up, go tempo. We're going to be two by two or three by one all day. And Jalen's just going to be a wizard in the pocket the way that Joe Burrow was against the Ravens on a Thursday night. he's not that type of quarterback which is okay that's what all those extra layers in the offense are for we can get you quarterback run game we can give you rpos we're going to get the ball out of his hands quickly outside the numbers and we're going to do things offensively that are going to make it really hard for you no matter what personnel you put on the field to make decisions on are we going to play zone and risk giving up a lot of air on rpos and quick throws to the outside or are we going to play man and risk A.J.

31:38Brown and Devontae Smith dunking on our DBs? You don't see them create those binds for defenses this year. And that's the easiest explanation for why they just don't look the same as what we saw in November and December of last season. And definitely not once they got to the postseason. And I think you brought this up, but I think it's worth bringing up again because it leads me into the next team we're going to talk about. Having a diminished version of Landon Dickerson, which he has been for a huge chunk of this season. He only missed one game, which is wild because there were games where he looked 60 percent and there have been games where he's looked 75 to 80 percent.

32:09He is not the same player right now that he has been when he deserved that contract that he got as one of the highest paid guards in the league. Cam Juergens missed a couple of games and he also hasn't looked every time he's been on the game. Why is he playing this? You are clearly not a better offense with the hurt version of him on the field. I legitimately think Toth was better in the run game than Cam Juergens has been at times this year, which is crazy to say. And then like you said, Tyler Steen is not Makai Beckton, especially in the run game. Now Lane Johnson is hurt and Jordan Mailata probably hasn't been at his best.

32:41So you have a diminished version of so many guys where every single spot along your offensive line is worse than it was when you were running the ball the way that you were last year. So that brings me to the last team that we're going to talk about here, and that is the Baltimore Ravens. What's the Ravens excuse? All those guys are the same. that that's been and maybe they're dealing with more injuries than I know about maybe it's been less obvious but when you look at the Ravens offensive line from left to right sure maybe Ronnie Stanley hasn't been playing quite as well this year as he was last year you know you had McCary for a good chunk of last year now Borges is back in that spot that's the one spot you're changing over but I don't think that is enough of a downgrade for you to be seriously worried about it you still have Linderbaum follow-way they played last year and then you had Roger Rosengarten last year.

33:27The offensive line quality wise should theoretically be in the same kind of zone that it was last year when you were one of the best running teams in the league. They are actively bad at running the football this year. Like they are one of the worst teams in the league in terms of rushing success rate, all of that stuff. And I just, and there's part of me that thinks, okay, is this a product of Lamar being banged up, right? If you're not adding Lamar to the run game or the threat of him, is that one of the reasons that you're worse? And so I was trying to isolate it. Last year, the Baltimore Ravens on under center runs.

34:01So let's take the quarterback out of it. Number one in the league in EPA per carry on under center runs last year with Baltimore Ravens. They are below average on those plays this year, and they are bottom six in success rate. They have a below average success rate on gun runs this year with Lamar Jackson involved. So the run game on so many different levels just has not been as good this year. And you think the offensive line is probably quality wise in the same general vicinity as it was last year. So I ask you this as somebody who has not been able to figure it out outside of details, flubs, just general kind of, I don't know, general ups by like when you watch the offense, what is wrong with the Baltimore Ravens being able to run the ball in the way that they want to?

34:45I wish I had an answer, dude. It has been the most confound, maybe the most confounding thing of a playoff quality team that's gone on all season long. At least like Buffalo's defense has kind of fallen off of a cliff, right? That will probably be the next best like comparison piece. I know how to get there though. Exactly. You can very easily turn on the film and be like, this is why you were bad. And you guys are actively contributing to your own demise with the way that you guys are playing defense. With Baltimore, and I love that you brought up the under center runs because I remember talking with so many of our colleagues throughout the year, like the binds that they can create for you now in the run game, now that they have an Isaiah Likely who can be on the field as often as a Mark Andrews, that they have a Patrick Ricard, that they can go under center now.

35:27They can get into 22 personnel against any defense in the league, at least in 2024, and say, do your best. We're getting six yards if we want six yards. And the moment you miss, Derrick Henry is going for 85 yards instead of six yards, right? You just don't feel that effect at all. Basically, since week one, we're really, yeah, basically since week one and week two against Detroit and Buffalo? Has it been where you feel like when you're watching that team play, they can run the ball at will? I don't know where they have lost because it's not like they're lighter up front now than they were last year.

36:01These are basically the same body types or the same pieces altogether. They use personnel relatively similarly, right? They haven't installed different runs. I do wonder if this is just a team that has kind of let go of the rope, maybe, and just kind of assumed that they could roll out the same things the same ways and it wasn't going to matter what defenses did. And it turns out that they're wrong on that front. And then I think you add in the fact that you don't have Lamar to threaten you in the run game. So now you can't abandon what they've been doing as an under center team and just say, hey, we're going to go to the zone read game and the RPO game.

36:34We're going to create similar binds for defenses in that light. You haven't had that either. I just don't know if this team does make the playoffs as we expect them to do, what they're going to do on early downs if they have to see Denver, if they have to see New England, these teams that have been really good at taking away easy yards for offenses. I don't know what their next answer is going to be. They're the most frustrating version of a bad running team because every play is something different. Yes. It's not one thing. You go back and you watch it and there's one play where Falao is not climbing to the second level.

37:08All right, I guess I can understand that. You think about how he's built and how he moves and that's going to happen every once in a while. And then you'll have plays where you'll have a guy lose one-on-one at the line of scrimmage. There are so many times where guys are going to the wrong spots in the run game, and it's not the same guy over and over again. And so it's a different kind of flub every single time you watch a negative run for this team. And that's why trying to find a solution is really difficult. And I just don't know how to pin down or articulate why that's happening now compared to what happened last year.

37:42It almost feels like the freak out we had last summer about the quality of the Ravens offensive line skipped a year. Yeah. It didn't matter last year. And somehow it's mattered this year with a majority of the same component parts. And I wish I had an answer as to why that is, but I just don't have that answer. I mean, the fact that you said, right, it's something different every play. and for me if I've had one knock on Todd Munkin at times in his coaching career is that he can get a little cute and they have lost games at times because this offense has gotten a little cute against teams that they should be able to just go play bully ball against that's not really what's happening this year you're not seeing the drive get blown up on a Zay Flowers jet sweep that didn't have to exist as often as you might have at different points in Todd Munkin's play calling career they are running a lot of the same stuff that worked it's a lot of lead outside zone it's a lot of under center we're running power counter it's a lot of the same things that they have crushed defenses with and like you said it's a guard missing an assignment it's your tackle not being able to work as a backside blocker to create a natural cutback lane for your running back other than that like i just don't have a good answer it would be different if they were doing less it would be different if they were um i think appreciably worse in one or two specific ways where you could just say hey if you leave these plays off of your play sheet you're probably going to get better off of that just addition by subtraction wise.

39:08That's not what's happening now. And then you add in the fact that Lamar has not been the same from the pocket as a passer over the last few weeks. And I am just kind of like flailing for answers, trying to figure out how this team is going to get to the level they're supposed to if they want to go contend this year. That's where I was going to bring this next. I, on the Sunday night show, I think I was a little harsh in how I was framing Lamar's performance on Thursday in this one specific way. I said he looked healthy. I should have caveated that. He looked healthier. Okay. The way he was moving, he looked healthier.

39:42I'm not going to speculate as to whether he's a hundred percent. Right. But my thought is who is a hundred percent right now? Right. Well, it's, it's December 1st. He, and when, when he took off with the ball on Thursday, there were a couple of specific moments where it looked like he had a little bit more juice than he has had at a lot of points this season. Whether that means he's 80 % or 90%, I have no idea. I just think that he looks like a healthier version of himself on Thursday and some of the same issues he had from the pocket earlier in the year have persisted. And I just don't really know what to make of that.

40:19I think there are a couple different things. We talked about this a couple different times over the last couple weeks. This is a team that slices and dices zone coverage they have over the last couple of years. I think challenging them in man coverage is the right thing to do. They are a decidedly below average offense when challenged that way. And that has continued. I think they're like 23rd or 24th in EPA per drop back against man this year. I think that's part of it. The other part of it is last year, as you would get deeper into plays, Lamar got more dangerous, right? And that doesn't happen for most quarterbacks.

40:50For most quarterbacks, as the play starts to develop and continues to develop, the efficiency and the potency starts to diminish. This year, he is 21st in the NFL in EPA per drop back on throws of three seconds or longer. Last year, he was number one. I think it was tied with Josh Allen or a little bit ahead. It's 0.27 EPA per drop back. That is plus MVP level. And that doesn't usually happen as we get deeper into place. And so those kind of slower developing plays where they would just be able to stab you in the heart after 3.3 seconds in the pocket, those have gone away. And I don't know what the reason for that is.

41:30In my mind, from my point of view, he just looks less settled in the pocket and less in control than he had when he was at his best. Maybe that's a product of having less faith in the pass protection because the offensive line isn't playing as well. I don't know how we've gotten here, but I know that where we are and where we're sitting feels dramatically different than what the 2024 offense felt like. I'm with you a hundred percent. And it's so funny, right? Like I remember, I remember the conversations we were having in 2022, where this was probably the last time that his EPA per drop back was this poor on throws that took longer than three seconds.

42:04And a lot of that was, he was taking a lot of sacks at that point in time in his career, but we were saying the math for him is always going to be advantage Lamar if he holds the ball because you do have the threat of him escaping the pocket you don't necessarily see him as aggressively seek out those opportunities to leave the pocket to go extend maybe that's it and I think it might just be as simple as that right and I think that defenses now are playing him in kind that way too where if we do kind of match up late in the down and play sticky coverage we're not as concerned that this guy is going to tuck it and go get 30 yards untouched because we don't have anybody to account for him out there I do think that that's something you probably can't really address until he gets the time to really get his hamstring back to where he feels confident no matter what kind of percentage we want to put on it ultimately it's going to come down to when he's ready to trust his legs in the way that he should and I think and Derek has probably pointed this out as well that like he's just not the kind of quarterback that moves like Dak Prescott right after Dak Prescott's ankle injury, the whole mentality changed to, I need to be able to get the ball out within two and a half seconds.

43:07If that's what it takes, I will speed myself up as much as possible and working through my progressions to be able to do so. That might just need to be the next layer for Lamar. If he's not going to be as dynamic and athlete when he extends plays is what we've come accustomed to. That's just going to be a necessity. I think otherwise his passing game, like you said, it's not really built to beat man coverage. It's not really built to beat the more matchy styles of coverage. In a lot of ways, it reminds me of Green Bay over the last two to three years, right? Where you've got all these wide receivers that you like as individual quantities, but when it comes to being a game-breaking force, Zay Flowers is not exactly that unless it's yards after the catch.

43:44Rashad Bateman is not always dunking on guys, even though he can go make catches outside of his typical frame. And they haven't had Isaiah Likely for so long in the season. We haven't had that in the middle between the numbers, between the hashes guys that can go box out against linebackers either. So it's just, it's so many layers, I think in the passing game specifically, that are a little bit easier to identify than what we were talking about earlier in the run game. Okay. So those are these three teams individually. Those are the things that are plaguing them. Is there any connection between any of this?

44:15Is there any larger scale lesson we can learn about this somehow being the year? Every year in the NFL, we get variants with who makes the playoffs and who doesn't. But that's with Washington from 2024 missing the playoffs in 2025. That's typically what we're talking about. It's not the Lions as a Super Bowl favorite missing the playoffs. It's not the Ravens looking like this after being the best offense in the league last year. It feels like this is more dramatic when it comes to the best teams in the NFL not feeling like the best teams in the back half of the season. So is there any broader thing or there are a couple broader things that we can learn from this?

44:55I think the number one thing right now that I would draw as a through line between all three of them is what happens when you take away the things that made your offense quarterback proofed. Even for a team, I would say like Baltimore that typically has a superhero under center. You have to have these layers, I would say, specifically in this season where it seems like so many defense just kind of have a one up on offenses right now. I think the teams are smarter. They're playing faster. They're playing lighter, right? The play calls across the league, at least for the best defenses now are more are better equipped to take away what offenses have liked to do to stress teams at all three levels of the field.

45:31You need to have different layers that are not going to ask your quarterback to do it all. None of these three teams so far have had those factors be part of what makes them successful, at least not against their top competition this season. So I would mark that as number one. And then number two, We're talking about offenses that don't have as many layers to their early down offense as what we've come to expect. Right. We just covered it with Baltimore, obviously with Philadelphia. This has kind of been like a two year long thing for them. And with Detroit, this is kind of some new untreaded territory for them as well.

46:03I think that we have to see it doesn't have to be Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay levels of marriage of the run in the past. but we don't see often enough these teams put their best players in position to really stress out defenses and I think that that that might ultimately be what kind of lines up how the rest of the season plays out is which of these teams if they do want to be contenders can get to what Sean McVay has been doing with the Rams can get to what Clint Kubiak has been doing with the Seahawks where you always feel their best players making an impact on the way the defenses react on a play play basis.

46:36It's funny because when I made the point about the Eagles and the Lions being these teams that you feel the fragility when you don't have an elite quarterback, a diminished version of Lamar probably isn't an elite quarterback anymore, right? And so if he falls back to the pack, it actually does apply to them in ways it might not in another season. So I think that's a bucket that you can try to fill up. You mentioned the brain drain in Detroit, and I'm curious what you think about this from a defensive perspective. I don't want to be a prisoner of the moment. I I really don't. As I think about the quality of defensive coaching in the NFL and what that now requires on offenses, do you think it's fair to say that right now, this moment in the league, since you started following the league, it's more important than ever to have an offensive play caller and an offensive architect that is setting you up for success?

47:27Like if the haves and have nots when it comes to that feels as stark right now as it has ever felt for me because the high end is so high and the defenses you're playing against are so well constructed. I would agree. I think that, and it's funny just how the pendulum swings because a decade ago, we were talking about this defensively after the Pete Carroll tree had been plucked clean. And I think that we are now there offensively with the Shanahan McVay guys. Now, most offenses have kind of borrowed this kind of homogenous approach to calling plays on early downs to setting things up in terms of personnel on early downs.

48:02And when you get, when you become homogenous as a league defenses, start borrowing the things that are effective against that. And you see more of that now than before. Everybody's watched Steve Spagnuolo put these guys in a locker over the last half decade. So guess what? You're going to see the same simulated pressures. You're going to see the same uses of personnel. You're going to see the same fronts, the same variations on the backend. I think that that's just kind of where we're at offensively. And that does accentuate the need to have the right kind of guy at the helm calling offenses because now you are going to see the degree of difficulty to line up those easy looks for your quarterbacks continue to increase until we get the next wave of young offensive minds that can create that advantage for their offenses.

48:41So yeah, I would definitely agree with that. Mike McDonald said something really interesting today. It was just a clip that was being passed around. I think it was probably like a radio hit that he did. I would encourage you guys to go seek it out. He kind of goes on a little rant about offensive coaches he's worked with and they'll be planning game planning for the week. And they'll be like, oh, this is a cool play that somebody ran that worked against this defense. Why don't we try to do that? And his thought is like, what are you talking about? Like it worked two weeks ago against them. So we'll just run it.

49:11How does that fit into the plan and who you are on offense and how you're trying to build things through an identity? And I think as you look at the Lions and the Eagles specifically, and you think about turning over offensive play callers, I just feel like there's such a stark difference between the guys who can make it sing and the guys who can't. Even if your ideas are the same, even if the plan is the same, even if you're trying to root yourself in the same stuff, you can just feel the difference when you have a guy that can bring all that to life and a guy who can't. And that's why brain drain f***ing matters.

49:46Like every single team in the every single off season that tries to be like, Well, you know, if the system is the same, like this, the system is not the offensive coordinator. The offensive coordinator is the guy who brings it to life. He is the guy who takes it from the page and puts it into practice. And when you lose that guy, it does matter. We have so many examples of you feeling that. And this is another one of those. And so quarterback stuff, play caller. And then the last thing I'll say, I think that we're in a place now where you're realizing the fragility of teams who don't have elite offensive lines.

50:21That was going to be the last point for me as well. And I think that the scales have been tipped so far on the athleticism and execution level towards defensive lines as opposed to offensive lines now. And some of it is just natural, right? Like there's just not the same level of supply. You're not going to find enough Makai Becton sized guards in the league to be able to just move bodies. And that's for every team. than the same way that you can find some 275 pound tweener type that looks like Keon White that can be a four eye on one play and edge on the next play. Right. Like it's much easier to just go find those guys and create problems for an offense in that light.

50:58I do think that as the rarity increases, because I do think that this is a problem that's not going away. If you watch college football, most most times or not, if you're angry at your college football team, it's because something's going wrong in the trenches. It's rarely the quarterback or the receivers. We're not going to be funneling up enough guys to paper over all the issues that exist across the league's offensive lines. And to me, that is the biggest reason why a team like Denver, who I like actively despise watching on offense, can seem to find just enough of a winning edge to get by every week.

51:29It's because they know their front five can do things that your front five cannot. I think that point about the offensive coordinators and it being more of a, it's almost a binary where you're either one of the difference makers or not. And so the rankings of them matter less, right? Like the one through 32. And so the Eagles used to be one of those offensive lines. It doesn't matter, right? We'll be able to paper over so much because we have one of those. We have one of the yes, please offensive lines. They don't anymore. The Lions used to be one of those teams. They don't anymore. And the Ravens were never one of those teams.

52:07But I think even with the same pieces, from one year to the other, if you're not an elite offensive line, it's almost like being a non-elite quarterback. It's just more fragile. You're just going to have more ups and downs if you aren't one of those yes, please offensive lines. And all of these teams fall into that category. and it just feels a little less stable because of that than you want it to. And so those are probably the three buckets in the three through lines if we were trying to figure them out. But I'm sure there are more and I'm sure there are a lot of things we can't answer and I'm sure there's a lot of randomness involved in this.

52:42But I just feel like there's enough signal and has been where it was worth trying to chew on what the f*** might be going on this year because it does feel kind of weird. Deontay, sincerely appreciate the time, my friend. always enjoy these conversations. Please tell the people where they can check out all the other stuff that you're doing. You can find me on the ringer, right? I've got a big quarterback carousel piece coming out tomorrow, most likely. So as you're hearing this, it'll probably be posted on the side of the ringer, kind of setting the table for what we can expect in terms of quarterback movement and the guys coming up from college to the league most often, more likely than not.

53:17And then outside of that, social media is Deontay Lee FB just about everywhere else. Appreciate it, buddy. I will be absolutely looking forward to the quarterback carousel conversation because it's not something I have yet to start thinking about, but it's going to be an interesting off season. I think for a bunch of different reasons. All right, before we move on, let's take one more quick break.

53:39So like I said earlier in the show, we saved the chiefs part of this conversation for a man that has a pretty intimate knowledge of how that offense works and what goes into it. So let's get to why the chiefs have fallen short this year with our old buddy, Mitchell Schwartz joining us now. It is friend of the show and former Kansas city chiefs, offensive lineman, Mitchell Schwartz, Mitch. How are you doing, buddy? I'm doing good. How are you? I'm doing okay. I wish we were talking under better circumstances. I feel like this is like the worst possible reason for you to come on, but I had to have you on as part of this show.

54:17So we're digging into kind of why the mainstay teams in the NFL don't feel that way right now. And a lot of the other teams that we're talking about, the Lions, the Ravens, the Eagles, these teams still have a decent chance to make the playoffs. The Lions or the Ravens and the Eagles are probably going to make the playoffs, but it just doesn't feel like they have the same oomph. The Chiefs aren't even in that category. I'm staring right now at the playoff simulator that The Athletic has. And at six and six, they currently had a 37 % chance to make the playoffs by our numbers. 37 % is not what you want.

54:50It's less than 50 as we're getting closer to the end of the season. And so I wanted to spend some time with you today, just talking about how we've arrived at this moment, what fueled us getting here and maybe what the right steps and lessons are as the chiefs move past this. So my first question to you, and because I think my mind goes here pretty quickly, just because when you look at all the shit that doesn't matter to a Chiefs fan right now, the underlying numbers, the efficiency stuff, all of this, they actually are still a very good team. They're not any worse than they were last year when they were stacking up all of these wins and they had all this great luck in close and one score games.

55:34So right now, as you kind of process what this team is, does it feel that demonstrably different than it did last year or in other stretches where the offense has been a little bit underwhelming to you? To me, yes. It feels very different and a lot worse. And I've been pushing back pretty heavily against the advanced stats because there's just no universe where this is like a top three or top four offense to me. There's no universe that's still like a top five overall team. I just I can't get away from comparing them against all the best teams they've played this year and for the most part it was double digit deficits in the fourth quarter the other team completely controlling the game and them turning it into a one score game with a late touchdown and then kicking off and basically not getting the ball back so you look at the Chargers game first game of the year look at the Philly game I think second game of the year I think it was the Buffalo game as well those are the three to me best teams they've played which all three teams are very flawed in their own regard uh that chargers week one was probably the best version of them the healthiest version of them but those are three games that the chiefs basically got dominated and the score is going to say one score game but to me those weren't one score games those were two score games with you know kind of that late cover to get to the one score action so you look at a jacksonville game and people say well the red zone interception and all this stuff like yeah but if you're hinging jacksonville which i think we still don't think is like a great team uh a game that i still don't know what they are yeah exactly no idea what they are like there's a chance that jacoby myers has like been a transformative presence for them i that might be enough like i truly we're doing the jags one of our games of the week this week in our preview and i have not started digging into the prep and i'm fascinated by what the process is going to look like because they're a team that i just do not have a handle on right now yeah and so you look at the two best victories there are three best victories now with the colts game one is a Colts game in which, you know, down by 11 points late in the game, rally back, whatever you want to say, advanced stats and turnover luck and all these things.

57:35Like I didn't come out of that game feeling like the Chiefs played well and like they're a really good team. They had four exceptional defensive stands late in the game, forcing four straight three and outs. I think we all kind of look at that as more of a negative on Indy than a positive on Kansas City, despite the fact that Chris Jones kind of turned back into Hall of Fame version of Chris for four drives there. And then you look at a Baltimore game where I think it was literally the entire two deep of Baltimore's defense at the time the Kansas City played them and some offensive injuries and then a Detroit game where I think Detroit's entire secondary was injured as well so there's not really any great victories and the times they've played you know the quote-unquote better teams on on their schedule or in the league they've been pretty easily handled so I just can't look at this team and watch them and feel like yeah this is a good or great team like I just don't have a ton of confidence moving forward I think there's underlying issues which I'm sure we'll get to here and I just don't really see those changing.

58:28That's a perfectly acceptable answer because I do think that we're kind of arguing with the wall when it comes to the advanced stats and I'm sure Chiefs fans don't want to hear that shit anymore. I don't think they are. I don't think they care. This is one year where the EPA stuff just doesn't matter to Chiefs fans. Everyone's frustrated. That's kind of what I mean. I'm sure they don't want to hear about it anymore. It's like I don't care that the numbers are saying that we're a good team. We are not a good team and we need to come to terms with that. And so landing on that side of the line, I'm totally fine with.

58:55So if that's how we're going to move forward, let's dig into this. What is it? Like, what are the things in your mind that are holding them back in the most important ways? If you had to stack up the flaws of this team in which ones have been the most detrimental, where do you think you would start that process? I would start that process talking about the offense and kind of the scheme and the structure of things. That one's a little bit of a longer conversation. We discussed that a little bit, but I don't think that this offense does things that are quote unquote easy in the NFL in 2025. You look at all the best offenses and you run down, you know, the Shanahan's, the McVeigh's, LeFleur, Ben Johnson, all those teams for the most part are a little bit heavier on under center, more hardball run whether it's still outside zone from under center i mean kyle's kind of transitioned into like a sneaky gap guy now um but they're going under center they're running at you in any variety that they can and they're comboing play action off of that and they're turning their back to the defense when the quarterback's play actioning and it's not a shotgun rpo run heavy scheme featuring a quarterback that no longer keeps the ball on reads and cincinnati has had this issue for basically Joe Burrow's entire career where we're just like what's the run game you can't be a shotgun run team you don't have any identity run game and play action wise you're just a spread shotgun team and then you go up against good defenses they can take away some things like what are you I think that's where the Chiefs are firmly planted right now unfortunately now you can say that the personnel running back especially doesn't allow this team to get under center run it more often even if you did run it 40 times under center you're only going to get you know 150 to 170 yards you're not going to have any you know jameer gibbs 80 yard breakaway touchdowns the defense is going to be scared of you but when i look at the offense like where's the intermediate passing game where are the play actions to travis running deep overs running fake deep overs breaking it out there's no intermediate passing game i think that's the major detriment of the offense and that goes to play action and that goes to living in the shotgun rpo world as opposed to being a little bit more under center so you say that you know without the right running back, how good can your under center run game be?

1:01:06Do you know where the chiefs rank in EPA per APA, EPA per carry on under center runs this year? They're second ahead of them is the Colts. The old, the Colts are the only team ahead of them. And this isn't success rate, right? So this accounts for a lack of explosives and they're still second in the league. And anecdotally, when you watch them every single time, they seem to line up under center and run the ball. it results in a positive play for the offense. But like you're saying, if that's not at the core of your philosophy, it always feels like you're dabbling in it. And it's never going to be a foundational piece of what the offense feels like, even if it's something that you're good at and seemingly something, you know, you need to do a little bit more because you're good at it.

1:01:51And I think that's kind of the push and the pull that they've been dealing with over the last few weeks, even as they've sprinkled it in more than we saw early in the season. yeah and to me this is where early in the season it felt like getting under center was to throw a couple looks at the defense to kind of run the ball as hey we're doing it and then we're going to try to take our 12 or 13 play action personnel shots and the teams just wouldn't care like again if you're going to run three times under center for 26 yards why should we respect that at all we're going to take away the play action that comes off of it and it felt very and this is where when I was playing for Kansas City like the offense had so much structure to it it was never like all right well Ben Johnson ran this good play against this team and you know Dan Campbell ran this play and Kyle ran this play and McVay ran this play and we're going to run these plays this week because these other teams are really successful with it it's no this is our philosophy we're going to run our stuff against teams and we're going to figure it out on our own and the under center you know game from Kansas City feels like picking and choosing certain plays from different teams that worked on certain weeks and it's not a cohesive offense you know again I keep mentioning like Kyle and McVay but how well everything meshes together that one single under center formation can have four different runs eight different play actions like if you just watch what a tight end going across the line of scrimmage does to a defensive end all the different ways you can do that run and pass like sending the tight end across cutting a defensive end who's getting naked it to that side that puts the defensive end like what is going on I've never been cut and have a same side naked in my life how am I supposed to defend anything now there's just none of that with the Kansas City offense and they tried it a little bit last game um with Travis now whether you want your 36 year old tight end who's had some shoulder issues in the past uh you know crack blocking and wham blocking and seal blocking on Judevion Clowney of all people um multiple times in a game I'm not sure that's necessarily the move but that's where it just it It doesn't feel like an identity.

1:03:46It feels like it's picked and chosen. And it's frustrating. I mean, I wish for better. You know, part of it, I think, as well is the personnel is just not quite as good. I mean, if you want to get into some of the advanced data that I do believe in, it's man coverage statistics. And you're seeing a team that can't really win against man coverage. Usually that means the personnel is not good enough. I think Xavier still is, you know, nursing some sort of lower body injury. To me, it doesn't look like he has explosiveness. he's kind of supposed to be here uh man coverage beater with the speed and his ability to you know kind of defeat press coverage in certain ways or certain formations and then on deep balls i don't think he really goes and high points it or really sees the game the way pat does so i think there's a disconnect in in that regard um so yeah there's just a lot of kind of negative stuff to talk about and that's before even getting to kind of the dink and duck nature of the offense and then you're talking about a unit that is heavily penalized starting with the right tackle and And if you're only getting nine drives a game, you can't really afford to have three or four penalties on offense throughout those nine drives.

1:04:45You're just not going to push the ball down the field. You might still score points, but it's probably going to end up in field goals because they're in 15, no longer converting those the way they used to. There's just so many things to go off of here, and none of it is really that encouraging. Let's go back to when you were there and it did feel cohesive. like what is a point of cohesion in let's say two specific two elements of the offense that you think were connected in a way that made sense that maybe isn't part of what the offensive plan is right now i know that's a tough question putting you on the spot but i want to try to draw a draw like the the disconnect and the disparity between what it felt like at its best and what it feels like right now yeah i mean the other thing is back then i mean i say back then I'm old now I feel like RPOs were a much more advantageous style of of offense and so the RPOs to me in the Chiefs game are more of you know the advantage throws or the early decisions where you're just kind of getting the information pre-snap and throwing the ball to a you know three over two look offensively where you're going to have two blockers on two guys and one receiver who can make them miss it's it's not the reading part of I'm going to catch the snap we've isolated one guy on defense that he's either going to play the run i'm going to throw it he's going to play the pass i'm going to hand it off to me that has kind of gone away as defenses have adjusted rpos and so you're not making a guy wrong every single time the ball snapped in a you know what i would call a true rpo um to me that's more of the the truer nature of what an rpo is kind of making a guy wrong depending on how he plays it and so you look at when i was there i mean so many times on the backside of rpos we were man because we were reading the backside linebacker so we can man up the backside defensive tackle defensive end we didn't have to you know scoop block or combo block to him and pat could sit there read the backside linebacker he triggers run we throw a slant or something behind him he kind of sits back there we hand it off and running backs got an angle to run away from him and we also account for the backside defensive end with the offensive tackle which was kind of a playoff which was great i loved it because i didn't have to really do much i just had to get in the way and then off of that we ran a lot of play action from shotgun that looked like RPO and looked like kind of that man run scheme.

1:06:58And so then that integrated really well. And then there was way more shrunken formations, tighter receivers tied into the line of scrimmage, which was more in vogue, you know, five years ago. But I feel like the offense has kind of gone away with it where at times I felt like maybe I'm not playing so well. They have to tighten the formation to give me more help. But I didn't say no to that. And now the offensive line play the offensive tackle play hasn't been as good but you're not putting those guys in better situations by tightening splits by making defensive ends feel uncomfortable by making them feel threatened with is it a run outside am I going to get cracked by the tight end come from the other side is it uh you know run right at me I'm going to get double teamed is a tight end from the other side going to come in motion and double team me up to the safety um I just don't feel like you're putting guys in binds the way a lot of the other top offenses are and so when I look at it you know what we used to do you know the RPO game worked and was more successful defenses hadn't adjusted yet the play action game kind of came off RPOs and was more successful for us in shotgun which is why we did it a lot and then kind of tighter squeezy formations a little bit more under center runs more of the intermediate passing game especially coming off play action just a lot of stuff I feel like is missing now it's funny the game that I bring I always go to when you're talking about that stuff when it comes to making a defensive end to uncomfortable.

1:08:15I think back to that 2022 game against the Niners and what they did to Nick Bosa over the course of that game. And it, it feels like a long time ago when the offense had such a specific, and again, go back to that word cohesive plan for defenses like that. And it feels like it has drifted away from it. And I think that, that example of the RPOs back then were more effective in general, right? Like the lead RPOs in 2018 were still fairly new. Like if you think about the teams that won the Super Bowl, the team that won the Super Bowl in 2017 and the team that had what is still the most efficient offense of the last decade in 2018 in Kansas City, their RPO based offenses because defenses haven't adjusted.

1:08:53So RPOs are more effective, period, that bucket of place. Now, RPOs are less effective and the RPOs that you were digging into and tapping into back then, those slants have a chance at explosive place. Like those are run after catch opportunities where a five yard completion goes for 20. Now all the advantage RPOs that are inherently less effective period are the less effective versions of RPOs on top of that, because you're getting these bubbles and swings and things that really are just like small bites at the apple rather than opportunities at explosive plays. So a diminishing of the RPOs is coming from two different directions.

1:09:29And I think this offense, as much as any other has felt the impact of that shrinking yeah and and that dallas game to me was just the perfect example where i feel like the chiefs short passing game is kind of rpo runs um you look at how many slants pickens caught you look at just like that catches the ball kind of takes a beat in the pocket doesn't have to you know take too big of a drop doesn't look hurry doesn't look rushed and like boom slant flat combination or double slants where kansas city like where's the easy slant play I feel like all the short passing games either. So they don't have that guy?

1:10:03Well, not even that guy, but just like, it just, everything feels rushed or like, oh, the window's open. Now I have to throw it. And like Pat is sped up on it again because the windows aren't there. Like he feels like the second that there's a window open, he's got to throw it. There's just not like a collective inhale, take a deep breath. Let's go back to basics and kind of, you know, play everything a little bit more straight up. And it's just, it's, it's stark. And yeah, it might just come down to personnel. It might be that simple that the personnel is not good enough and it's not allowing coach to run a better offensive scheme or a better pass game system.

1:10:38I'm definitely here for that discussion. But yeah, it's just one of many issues, I would say, with the Kansas City offense. So let's talk about what has to come next. Like if this year might be off the table, right? Like we may not even be talking about how things can get fixed in 2025. That might have come and gone. As we head into next year, where does this need to improve? And I think there are two areas you can focus on. One, in the building, like where are these ideas coming from? What is the offensive staff looking for in terms of how they're trying to create the identity? And then what personnel tweaks need to come in order to inform that identity?

1:11:16I think those are the two big questions. How would you solve the first one? Like what would be your approach with in terms of how we're trying to tweak the overall approach we have on offense with the staff that we have in place? Because it does feel like it's gotten a little bit stale. Yeah. So to me, the realistic answer, just knowing how I guess tight Andy Reid keeps the staff and doesn't have too many new guys or new systems coming in, is potentially Mike Kafka comes back. And whether that's as an offensive coordinator and something happens with Nagy senior advisor role, I don't really know how those things work.

1:11:48um but now that he has you know four years of working with dayball and maybe three years however many you know just been with another system kind of gotten a better version of football the last few years and you can bring a guy back who's very familiar with how the chiefs run things but also has this familiarity with um really a lot of cool stuff if you talk about i'm sure dayball brought on stuff from buffalo how to use josh obviously stuff with jackson dart you know a couple years before that with DJ, not quite as impressive, but just someone who's familiar with the Chiefs, but also most recently has been with another system.

1:12:23What I would love to see in a less realistic world is someone, again, from the Shanahan McVay, I don't know if Ben Johnson's going to have a tree now, but from that style of football in the building who has a legitimate voice and who can implement some of the under center run and play action stuff. My worry is if they get someone in the building with those qualifications they're probably not going to be oc they're going to be somewhat further down the the chain and even though the ideas might be there the commitment to it or the ability for that person to you know speak freely or make that you know an ownership part of the offense might not be there so i do think there's that anything offensive line wise i mean there's some room to make some tweaks with some stuff um the under center run game i think in part looks great under center because they're not as lateral they're not as what's going to happen let's wait you know we can't go downfield because rpos we can just run and go forward and be fast and the timing between the running back and the o-line is a lot better from under center especially with how much outside zone the chiefs run from shotgun which i hate the running backs going lateral to the line of scrimmage and then having to make a 90 degree left hand or right hand turn when it's time to make a cut and again you've got guys who aren't really qualified to do that as well um so finding a way to make kind of that o-line running back run game cohesion work better um and to the personnel side i mean i don't really have that answer draft better uh you know go find the guy what are the skill sets though because i i think that if i'm thinking about two types of players because in my mind like the offensive line is capable of more as constructed like when it's really frustrating line can run whatever you want to.

1:14:04That's the problem with some of these teams is that, and that's also one of the points of frustration is that a couple of years ago when, when Trey was there and Orlando Brown was playing left tackle, they had these big, big offensive linemen. They were leaning into all these gap scheme runs and it felt like a proper representation of the offensive line talent in a way that made sense. And now you have an offensive line that you can still probably do whatever you want in the run game and you're not doing it. And so that's the frustrating part. If the offensive line was just bad, it'd be like, Oh, whatever.

1:14:35Well, the offensive line is just bad. That is not the case with this team. And that's why I think this is so maddening. So that part, I feel like is squared away. The two skillsets, I'd say three skillsets within the offense that are necessary. And you can correct me if I'm wrong on this one, I think they need a man beating wide receiver of some kind, a big bodied guy who is capable of winning in one-on-one situations. And I think, I don't know if you necessarily have to pay a ton of money to find that guy because I think those guys exist. Like Jawan Jennings is the guy I keep bringing up. And I know Jawan Jennings has kind of had a weird year, you know, getting punched in the nuts and saying weird things to Malik Collins, all that stuff.

1:15:13But somebody of that ilk where, all right, I need somebody that can win on one-on-one situations. He doesn't have to be the most important receiver on our team, but I need somebody on third and seven that can beat man coverage or be a viable option. That's one. Two, a blocking tight end, right? Like just somebody that can be what a Jackson Hawes or a Mitchell Evans. These guys you can draft in the fourth and fifth round that have one specific skill set. I think folding that in, if you're going to be a 12 personnel team with Travis Kelsey is one of the tight ends that feels like it kind of accentuate different versions of the run game.

1:15:44And then three are running back with a little bit of juice. Like if you had those three skill sets to the offense in the offseason and you have a realistic conversation with yourself about some of the structural things that need to change. I do feel like that is a viable path to a different version of this offense in 2026. oh yeah i'm totally with you i've been saying for seven or eight years like just put someone fast at running back in the offense the the beauty of the offense i mean maybe not the last few years with some of the downfield passing stuff but it creates so much space horizontally and vertically that it's okay if three of our 15 runs a game are negative two to two yards one we're not running very much.

1:16:27But two, if you get two or three other runs that go from four or five yard gains into 10, 12, you know, 18 plus yard runs, I would trade explosives for bad plays. Because even if it's second and seven versus second and 10 or second and 12, you're probably passing the ball anyway. So you might as well just trade, you know, durability and reliability for the chance of explosive plays. And I think that gets back to a little bit of the staff relying too much on guys that they trust to kind of be in the right spots versus allowing younger guys to kind of go out there and make mistakes I feel like that happens a lot more on defense but if you look at the Chiefs from the running back position specifically this year you sign Elijah Mitchell he doesn't see the field at all you bring Clyde Edwards the layer back and he's just back and playing over Mitchell who you signed and then Brashard Smith who we expected to kind of be the third running back guy with some juice former receiver great you know pass catcher out of the backfield he gets like two touches a game at most like just give that guy eight touches and just see what happens if you have four bad plays great but if you have one or two explosives like go for it and this is what i've been arguing i mean josh jimmons is out for the year now but like you have maybe the most athletic left tackle in football now why doesn't he pull on sweeps why don't you get the ball in the hands of even xavier worthy or those couple times where she rice has been running back like just get the ball in the hands of really fast guys let your super athletic left tackle go in space and block and I don't know it's just it's really frustrating the more I talk about it the more I get worked up but um yeah I'm with you on all those schematic things I mean I think Noah Gray kind of slots into the wide tight end role but then you want to get an 11 personnel because you have to make all the receivers happy and then Travis is in there and you're running play actions with Travis on nakeds and he's getting grabbed and held and beat up on those because they know that he's probably not going to go back and cut the defensive end so there's a bit of predictability even within the 11 or 12 personnel run game world, just because they kind of match who's on the field.

1:18:26Two guys that are free agents at running back, Kenneth Walker and Brie Saul, both free agents. So both of those guys have a little bit of juice. Even if you didn't want to spend like a third or fourth round pick on trying to find that guy, just two guys that they're out there. Last thing I'll ask you, and this might be hard for you to, it's a difficult question and one that I'm sure you don't want to explore that hard. and he's 67 do you think we're in a position where we're getting like offensive reinvention from the chiefs in a single offseason at this stage of his career do you think that's still possible possible yeah that's honestly been one of the more frustrating things for me this year especially is why haven't we seen this move towards what you can consider more efficient more effective offensive football now part of it is he's probably sitting there thinking like Like, all right, well, I schemed up the Denver game.

1:19:18Six downfield passes, we connected on one of them all game. I've schemed up these certain things. Guys are open. The right tackle was offsides. You know, takes a touchdown off the board. I think Denver even, you know, last week, a first down taken off the board because of legal formation. Holding calls, like, he can probably look at it and say, execution error, execution error, execution error. And he's way too smart to not realize when he's the one at fault. He gives up play calling once every five or six years because the offense gets stagnant and he just doesn't have the answers and says, I don't have the answers, offensive coordinator, run with it.

1:19:53So that's where it feels really frustrating to me. Obviously, what they're going to say in the public, he's never going to put anyone down. He's never going to bash anybody. He's never going to speak negative so that we're one or two plays away and just consistency. I do think he's not wrong. I mean, you can look at it and again say, missed one or two throws, missed one or two blocks one or two penalties one or two times receivers weren't in the spots they needed to um but the flip side is patrick mahomes is your quarterback should that be the margin for error no that's what i'm saying the the flip side is you should make the offenses easy on everybody that the execution errors just get washed away and you don't even realize i mean dude 2018 we made so many execution errors pat's i think pat's touchdown to demarcus robinson the last week of the year for 50 touchdowns 5 000 yards i'm pretty sure d rob ran the wrong route and Pat just saw him running and just chucked it up and he caught it and he was like dude he ran the wrong route I just threw it to him like stuff like that happened all the time RPO game we weren't very effective at doing the right thing on the right read but Pat has a really good feel for football and he would kind of make those things happen even if they weren't you know quote unquote the right read so leaning into offensive structure that just makes the job so much easier you know I made the joke to you this offense could use the Bill Lazor Chicago offense from late in the season from five years ago i said that tongue-in-cheek but also not really like just see what happens if you just make the dumbest easiest version of an offense and just see what happens like i mean you do have something to lose obviously but i just don't think there's a leaning into innovation leaning into what's easier for everybody the way they used to be i mean alex smith you go back on look at it you know 2014 2015 especially brings zone read to a much higher degree brings in chris all to help with that you know obviously zone read wasn't new then but the leaning into it and just like hey we've got this baller offensive line in 2015 we're i think they were oh and five one and five and then ended up running the table because they just said screw it we're gonna run zone read inside zone all the time and just destroy you with it and then three years later bringing in the jet motion jet sweep eye candy for defenses i know that new england game to start the season cream's first game all the motion that was happening like that was an innovation and then next couple years bringing an rpo game innovation and then figuring out a way to adjust to the too high stuff with a more efficient offense taking what the defense is giving you a form of innovation not as exciting innovation um but where's that been the last three years I don't think it's an age thing I don't think it's a capability thing it's just I don't know again he's just pointing to it's an execution thing and not a structure thing but I would like to see the structure change and change in a way that we're seeing all the best offenses do the last thing I'll mention because I think it's it's a timely comparison this brings me to my consistent frustrations with the can't with the Dallas Cowboys offense over the last three or four years before this year where it's like it doesn't have to be this hard like Your quarterback is really good.

1:22:53And just because maybe he has a preference for how he wants to play and you feel like you're putting him in the best possible position and the game is in his hands because he's in the gun all the time. If you make things just a little bit easier on him and a little bit easier on everyone, look what can be waiting for you on the other side. And so maybe that's what the Chiefs need. Maybe the Chiefs need their version of Clayton Adams or whoever it is to be this guy coming in with kind of a new set of ideas that makes everything feel a little bit more connected and makes things just a little bit easier on everyone, including the quarterback.

1:23:23And like you said, let's just see what happens. And so I'll be fascinated to see what that might look like or might not as they figure out how these things need to get tweaked for next year. I mean, the thing that I would love the most, and again, this is so unrealistic, I would love Mike McDaniel to be in the building as the offensive coordinator. That would be such an amazing matchup between what he brings and what Coach Reed brings. Two brilliant guys. I think they would work well together. the ideas would be great and just you'd create this hybrid offense of the best of both of them um but again is he gonna get fired doesn't seem like it would even be hired doesn't seem like it uh but to me like that's the kind of guy that i would love to get in the building and love to be a huge part of the offense there are those guys on the shanahan tree and the mcfay staff just pick the next one and it seems to be okay that's not the worst practice for the most part it works out so hopefully they'll consider something like that mitchell schwartz always great to chat with you buddy.

1:24:17Signific or sincerely appreciate the time. We'll talk to you soon. Sounds good. Thank you. All right, guys, that's all we got. Thank you so much to Deontay. Thank you so much to Mitch. Appreciate both of their times. We will be back tomorrow with our week 14 preview. It's a doozy. I'm willing to spoil it right now. Bears Packers game of the week, Chicago Bears game of the week treatment, athletic football show. Pretty sure that's the first time that has happened since we started doing the podcast. So very much looking forward to a Packers Bears game that truly matters along with an excellent rest of the week 14 slate.

1:24:50So encourage you guys to check that out. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you listening. We'll talk to you soon.