What really was Caleb Williams' 2025 season? & More lingering questions

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1:05Robert Mays: Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Our last lingering questions show is here. I'm honestly kind of sad they're over. We had such a good time on this one the same way we had in the last couple. These are some of my favorite things we do in any given offseason. If this is your first one of these, we spent five shows over the course of the last month and a half or so trying to answer some questions that you just don't really have the bandwidth with to think about or answer in the moment at the end of the season. We're talking about the Raiders defense from last year today. I'll be honest.

1:34Robert Mays: I wasn't watching a lot of Raiders defense in week 15 of last year. We're talking about how we should really feel about Caleb Williams is 2025, because I think so much of the narrative around him is colored by the way that it ended. And by the time it ended, we're already talking about the NFC championship game. And so what should we really feel about what Caleb Williams did last season? And then the last one, Cincinnati Bengals are in a very similar position to the Dallas Cowboys, where their defense was abysmal last year. Their offense has obviously a ton of promise. We asked this question about the Cowboys.

2:05Robert Mays: Is the offense really good enough that we should think of them as a Super Bowl contender if they can fix the defense? So we're just running it back about the Bengals. We're asking the exact same question because the situations are similar enough. So those are the three that we hit today. Really enjoyed this with me, Derek, and Dave. Hope you guys do as well. Let's get to it right now.

2:33Robert Mays: getting deeper into july which means our lingering question series is coming to an end this is the fifth and final one that we are doing i'm really excited about the questions that we're asking today i feel like they're very true to the spirit of this exercise so these will be numbers 13 through 15 in our lingering question series that we've done all summer. I really enjoy doing these in the offseason and the ones that we have on tap today are no exception. I'm excited for how we're starting this show because I mean, every question is like this, but spoiler alert, we're going to talk some Caleb Williams today and reliving Caleb Williams season was a ride for like, mostly for better, but even for some worse, just like, because at this point, you know, the season ends and you go on to the Super Bowl and you launch right into free agency.

3:24There's no gap between the Super Bowl and free agency these days. And it feels like it gets shorter every year. Long story short, I haven't really thought about Caleb beyond just like the plays against the Packers in months. Why I wanted to do this. And having spent a day and a half just refreshing myself on everything, I was like, holy shit, it broke my brain a little bit. I can't wait to download it all.

3:46Robert Mays: That's why exactly why I wanted to do this. And I'm sure there are some people who aren't familiar with the show who would think, oh, man, they're going to spend time talking about Caleb Williams and Robert's a Bears fan. Like, this is just a way to talk about and celebrate Caleb Williams. Incorrect. That's not why I wanted to do this. I wanted to do this because I really do want to have a real conversation about how we should feel about him right now, because when the way the season ended, there was all these spectacular plays. There's spectacular plays against the Packers. They're spectacular plays against the Rams.

4:16Robert Mays: He's now in the top 10 of a lot of these quarterback ranking exercises this offseason. He's on the Madden cover. It just feels like he's being treated like a superstar after the way that last season ended. And I wanted to just take a step back and have a conversation about, okay, how should we really feel about what Caleb Williams is right now after the 2025 season? And I think that, again, it will be a less celebratory conversation that it might seem with me as the narrator here. Not if I'm starting off.

4:48Dave Helman: He is that good. He is. I think I went back and watched him and I kind of felt this way already during the season. I think you have to be insane to not believe that he will be a star like it there when there is just I cannot think of another player at any position who made as many 1 % plays as he does. And I didn't think that they would turn out good. Like he just does things that seem impossible from the balance, the arm angles, the throws that he can make. And it's not perfect yet, but I think that's for a couple of reasons. One, he's a young player. And I think, again, we've talked about this, like we just get to, we want Patrick Mahomes to happen so fast.

5:27Dave Helman: We want Lamar Jackson to happen so fast. The other element of some of that inconsistency, he was learning a new offense in the second year. they fire hosed him with how they made him learn the offense it's a very intricate offense and it's a very aggressive offense like it's an offense that is kind of always going to be prone to having some misfires and having some ebbs and flows it's they're like a three-point shooting offense the way that they're constructing it and I think that's why you get some of the the frustrating misses that you have with Caleb not that he doesn't have other ones but again I think he just does so many things that are truly truly special and like the physical talent is probably the best in the league there has been since Josh Allen I have a hard time seeing that he won't be like a top five six quarterback sometime soon I really love the mental image people like oh do you hear the Tafts guys wouldn't shut up about Caleb Williams and like well yeah like Mays is a bearish and it's like no no no it's it's not Robert Robert is afraid that all of this is going to disappear if he speaks about it.

6:28And it's Derek that is just heaping praise on Caleb Williams. I think you fall on this.

6:35Robert Mays: This is not a surprising take by him. I'm just curious where you went. By the way, when I said this wasn't just going to be a celebration of Caleb Williams, I meant it wasn't solely going to be that. There's a lot of stuff to be excited about, a lot of stuff to like. But this was not an excuse for me just to talk about how good Caleb Williams is. I just wanted to clear that up. But I'm also very curious about where you sit with this. Here's the thing. Derek's right, but I'm a little less willing to hand wave away. Thus the other stuff, you know, like I'm a little less willing to be like year two, first year in a new offense.

7:11I mean, and to be clear, there are so many reasons why you could hand wave it away. I'm just not willing to assume linear growth and assume leaps year over year, time after time. And even if I, even if there are a lot of reasons why that might be true, I'm just not, I'm not as willing to get out over my skis as Derek is. And that is what makes Derek so fun. But I mean, the flashes are there. The plays are there. And like, screw the Packers games, turn on any other game, like turn on any Bears game. And you'll just see something that only like three people in the world can do.

7:50Robert Mays: But are we overrating that stuff? are we overvaluing that stuff is that stuff so prominent in our minds that we're overlooking some of the things that maybe we should be a little bit more concerned about but but it should

8:02Dave Helman: he's doing things that are impossible for all but like three people on the planet i think we should

8:08Robert Mays: be over indexing for those things well okay that would quarterback play is though that's okay we we don't need we don't need to explain to anybody listening what caleb williams is capable of if you're listening to this show, you've seen the good. So what specifically, Robert, like what troubles you the most and how nervous are you that it can't get better? I think there is a couple different buckets I would put this stuff in and we can go by to me what is the least troubling to the most troubling. The least troubling where it's I think it's stuff he needs to work on, but I absolutely see room for improvement and reason to believe that he's going to get better at it.

8:46Robert Mays: We talked about this a little bit last year. He still needs to see stuff faster. Stuff needs to be happening quicker than it is for him right now. And I think that to me is the best example of, well, that's a young player in a new offense. Like you would assume that stuff is going to get better. There's a play in the second Packer game in the regular season that really jumped out to me where he is trying to throw an inbreaker to Colson Loveland down in the red zone and he double clutches it and he's late and Xavier McKinney gets a hand on it because he doesn't just rip that thing right away. That stuff happens a decent amount where you see him doing the right things.

9:22Robert Mays: Even on the first play of that game, he is starts to his right, goes one to two to three, all the way backside to Jaday Walker. And it's a completion sidearm bullet arm strength gets that throw there, even if he's a little bit late on it, but you still see some of that stuff looking mechanical and a little robotic and a little slow. It's so much better than it was in year one, and it got better over the course of the year, but it still needs to be a tick faster than it is. I think that is a concern, but something I think can get better. Similar sort of like on the other side of that coin, I think he can get too fast at times when things flash in front of him.

9:59Robert Mays: There's a perfect play of this example of this in the Browns game where the Browns bring a five-man pressure, the Bears pick it up, and he bails to his right as the wrap route is coming over the middle of the field. It's just like, take a breath, buddy. Take a breath. Just deep breath. There are times where he's a little bit too slow, and there are other times where he's a little bit too fast. Again, that stuff with time on task, time in the offense, more reps, I think that stuff can get better. The most concerning thing to me that this is a can we actually get a lot better at this is the ball placement stuff.

10:30Robert Mays: the ball placement stuff needs to be better period and this is not about completion percentage we can talk about completion percentage that's that there are a lot of reasons it was a 58 completion percentage the ball placement overall he's leaving plays on the field in multiple different ways he's making a lot of these catches harder and i think that led to some of the contested catch and 50 50 ball stuff that the bears struggled with last year along with the drop rates and there are yak opportunities that he is consistently leaving on the field because the ball is on a guy's back shoulder somebody has to go up for a throw they probably shouldn't have to there's meat on the bone within the offense if the ball placement can get better and there's a lot of it and i'm just wondering how much better that gets with more time within the offense because i think it's harder to convince yourself that's going to get better where with the other stuff I think it's a little bit easier.

11:22Robert Mays: That's where I sit.

11:23Dave Helman: I think the ball placement thing is a couple of different angles. I think some of the short area placement stuff and some of his check down misses that one, I can't really explain away. Like some of those ones, he's just rushing himself. There was a check down, I think in, I want to say the Raiders game that we play where he's just rushing to his left and like throws it to DeAndre Swift and he dirts it like two yards behind him. And there's no reason for that. And he has some of those misses. I would contend that a lot of his misses, you know, or not, not, perfect balls beyond 15, beyond 20, whatever it's going to be, because the offense asks him so often to do it, there are going to be more opportunities where he just misses those.

12:00Dave Helman: It's like the Dak Prescott issue. Like Dak Prescott unlocks a lot of throws because he's willing to make a lot of those, but he will just miss sometimes and misplace balls and ask CeeDee Lamb to go make an incredible catch. But by virtue of having those throws on the table consistently, that is more valuable than like the couple of misses that he's going to have with those. I think the other thing to me with Caleb Williams ball placement. And this is something I think that he needs to work on a little bit, but I actually think is an admirable trait. He knows where to miss when he misses. He does not put the ball into defenders way.

12:31Dave Helman: And I still think he has to like calibrate the touch a little bit better. But I think that that is something that can come. I'm so glad you said that because I think the most, there were a few things that frustrated me about watching Caleb back. But the thing that frustrated me the most is I think he plays like such a savvy veteran at times in the sense where he makes several times a game he'll make a throw where it's either going to be incomplete or his guy's going to have a shot at it you know the classic like put it right up against the sideline put it right up against the back line wherever you are on the field and your guy's either going to have a shot or it's going to be incomplete and that's great but he's he's so often throws it in such a way where his guy doesn't even really have a shot at it.

13:16Like, and it's, it's time after time where it's like, I see the thought process. You have to calibrate your throws better to actually give that guy a shot because that ball's going out of bounds, six yards in front of them. That's not, that's not actually giving your guy a chance. And if he could make that hit more consistently to Derek's point, I think it would do a lot to offset my concern about like the down in down out misses that you see where, you know, he's two yards in front of a guy on a crosser or there's so many fun bear plays from last year where the receiver like corkscrews because the ball was behind him.

13:52Colston Loveland made a season out of that of like catching a ball on his back shoulder, turning and keeping going. But that's not the ideal, right? But if he could get better at some of that savvy ball placement, I think I could learn to live with that. But we got a course correct one or the other. I mean, preferably both. Right. But one of those things needs to improve.

14:13Robert Mays: I'm with Derek in that I think that, I think we're having two different conversations in that the aggressiveness of the offense is going to lead to some more of those misses. But I still think even accounting for that, even accounting for, and again, this is different than the completion percentage stuff. Even accounting for the aggressiveness within the offense, I still think the ball placement needs like a significant amount of work. I just think it needs to be considerably better for them to reach their ceiling. And I think that hangs over this entire discussion and it hangs over my entire tone in having this discussion is that I see what's coming with this team this year on a bunch of different fronts.

14:51Robert Mays: The regression is coming for the defense and the turnover margin. The offensive line health regression is probably coming. There are going to be areas for this team that they are not as lucky or as fortunate as they were a year ago. The only way to overcome that stuff and be really dangerous is if you are one of the truly the best couple offenses in the NFL. And if that is going to happen, he needs to be a better player this year, like a notably better player this year than he was last year. For all the excitement, for all the fun, for all of the fireworks that we saw, he finished 22nd in passing success rate out of 36 qualified quarterbacks.

15:30Robert Mays: that needs to be better if this team is going to do what it wants to do. I agree with that, but it's not a success rate offense, especially in the first to be

15:39Dave Helman: to some level, to some level. Yes. But it again, it is a three point shooting offense the way that they are doing it. But I think when you are playing this way and when you are asking the quarterback to be like this and leaning into that style, I think like the Jordan Love path is what you need to be hoping for. Where Jordan Love was a little bit scattershot early in his career, and he could be a little bit robotic in the way that he was reading things. But especially by year two, and then especially into year three this year, he did become a much higher success rate player. He could take autonomy to the offense, and man, is he accurate to every single level.

16:11Dave Helman: And I think that's where I come down with it. He definitely missed way more throws than he should have last year. But I think because I admire that he knows where to miss, and I think that that is something that can be calibrated, and because of just how raw talent, how much raw talent he has as a thrower, those guys do get more accurate. Josh Allen got more accurate. Jordan Love got more accurate. Like those guys who are unbelievably elastic and powerful throwers, they find a way to get more accurate.

16:38Robert Mays: I think Jordan Love is a really good example of a quarterback who got better because too often, and I wanted to have this conversation because I think it's a really important one. Josh Allen, Josh Allen, Josh Allen, Josh Allen. Like that is the example that comes up with these guys who were objective abjectly bad and then got so much better. And I think people have tried to lump Caleb Williams in with him because his rookie year was so bad that you need to look at Josh Allen as this North Star example of how things can improve. But there are a bunch of quarterbacks that did improve, even if they weren't really bad at the start.

17:11Robert Mays: Jordan Love is a very good example. The one that I wanted to talk about, because it's such a strange case, is actually Jared Goff. We don't talk about Jared Goff this way in the way that we do some other quarterbacks because the numbers were good in by 2017. If you look at the stats, they were a top five offense in LA, but then you get a little bit deeper into his time in LA and he struggled. Like he really struggled. We don't usually talk about Jared Goff as a quarterback who is now successful because he improved, but he is. And he improved in this exact situation. Like I remember talking to Jared a couple summers ago about this.

17:48Robert Mays: Like, where did you refine your game as you got to spend more time in this offense? And his just, he kept going back to this idea of understanding the intent in what Ben is trying to do made me so much better as a quarterback. And you can only do that with hundreds and hundreds of both reps and just minutes of conversation. They met every day when he was in Detroit, every single day they would talk. And if you hear Caleb talk about it now, they meet every single day, him and Ben Johnson to go over the offense and to go over everything that they're doing. And so I think too often when we're looking at these guys, we fixate on these massive leaps in improvement from very good to very bad.

18:27Robert Mays: And we miss these little bits of improvement and these little bits of refinement where guys go from a little bit frustrating at X, Y, and Z area to a much more complete quarterback. That's happening, I think, more often than we're acknowledging because the huge leaps happen so infrequently. Well, and it doesn't help that the standard has been set by quarterbacks who won MVP in their first full seasons as starter. Yeah. Not Josh, but Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. I mean, that's when you're talking about that caliber of quarterback play. And, you know, we'll see how the episode we just did ages.

19:04But that's that's what people are after. That's what people want, especially fan bases and people who just talk about the game from the outside. That's the standard you're being held to. And so, yeah, it's boring to look for incremental increase year over year. I think it's more fair, but that's not the world Caleb Williams is living in. Like, I mean, people are not going to be gracious with that if that's how it happens, even if perhaps they should.

19:33Robert Mays: Do we want to talk about completion percentage a little bit before we move on? Absolutely. I'd like to add some context to the completion percentage situation because I actually think there's a lot of interesting stuff happening. here. Obviously completing 58 % of your passes when your coach explicitly before this season asked you to complete 70 is not a good thing. Derek's point about the type of offense I do think has merit. I think it's a little bit less aggressive. It's not so aggressive that it excuses completing 58 % of your passes. I think that's where I land with it. But there are a lot of reasons for this.

20:08Robert Mays: Like we talked about, he is not making, or until the playoffs, when I think he was a little bit more aggressive. He just wasn't making very many negative plays. Like that just wasn't happening. The only quarterbacks in the NFL last year who had at least 500 snaps that had a, had less combined EPA lost on sacks and interceptions last year than Caleb Williams or Jordan Love and Bo Nix. Those are the only two guys. He's just not making a lot of negative plays. And some of that is driven by the fact that he's missing big on some of these throws to avoid negative plays. And he's threw the ball away a ton last year.

20:42Robert Mays: He had 42 throwaways last year per next gen. That's the most in the league. League average was 25. The Bears had 29 drops last year. That was third in the NFL. League average was 19. So let's just get those numbers to league average. That's 27 additional completions that go into that. Now you're up near like 60%. And I think then we're talking about that's where the ball placement starts to creep in. So I think the number is depressed for a lot of reasons on top of the fact that he needs to get better here. And the thing that really jumped out to me, and this is where I think if you're trying to make an argument for areas of this offense, they can get a ton better this year that were actually very bad last year.

21:24Robert Mays: We think about and talk about Caleb Williams is this kind of schoolyard, creative, out of structure player. The Bears were terrible in those situations last year. They were terrible in those situations last year. It's kind of shocking when you look at the numbers. Go ahead, Derek, and then we can get into some of these.

21:42Dave Helman: I do think some of those are like players, like the receivers missing some opportunities. Like there was one against, I think it was the Raiders game where like he, or no, it was one of the Vikings game where like he whips out of a sack, does some crazy stuff to get away from like three people. No, it was the Raiders because he makes Max Crosby miss. And then he rips one to Cole Komet like 30 yards down the field, puts it at his toes and Komet just can't bring it in. And like I say on his toes, like that sounds like a bad ball the defender is like all the way wrapped over him like he I think he can make enough of those plays I think they'll be fine of it there eventually

22:13Robert Mays: Cole Komet is also the king of jumping when he doesn't need to it's one of his character I do think it's worth bringing up Cole Komet's not a great example but Caleb is a young player the Bears whole offense was young I mean Roma Dunze Luther Burden yeah Colston I mean Colston Loveland turned into the security blanket ironically but this was all they were all so young and like again just watching games back snap after snap the miscommunications are everywhere and even if a healthy chunk of marginal misses yeah so many marginal misses even if a healthy chunk of them are on caleb they're not all on caleb there's no chance they it's not just it's not drops necessarily it's just the amount of like bang bang 50 50 plays that ended up as incompletions last year they as an offense they just did the only guy who was making contested catches within that offense last year was dj moore that's it everybody else all the contested plays were left on the field the best example to me first drive against the rams he pins it on roma dunze at the one yard line on that first drive and he came away with it that should be a touchdown where that first interception shouldn't even happen and that was happening a decent amount last year rome specifically was pretty brutal in like those 50 50 contested catch situation that's

23:28Dave Helman: what he should be doing exactly that's why those were frustrated like luther burden not catching those like there's a couple of plays that he should make like there's a dig that caleb rips to him in the viking one of the vikings games but it's like that's that's not really as much your game whereas the roma dunes they drops those ones were more frustrating and i will say the communications like dave pointed out that was a huge one and some of that is probably caleb and i do think some of it is like everybody's learning a new offense that is very complicated like again going back to the raiders game i actually intentionally watched some of caleb's like worst games uh yeah it's a good idea because i wanted to get a gauge for it it's it's the better way to do this type of thing in my opinion i watched the last five so there's there's a mix well because i get like all the good plays and good stuff is already my head so i want to go back and like how bad is the bad but there was a play in this raiders game it was like early in the second quarter and they kind of motion into this de facto bunch into this into the boundary and they run cole comet who's the inside player on like a seam bender kind of thing and luther burdens running on the outside vertical and there's a running back underneath to tie down that like hook linebacker and so Cole Komet is like free down the middle and the safety is shaded to the other side the single safety in the middle is all the way to the other side of the field so like the middle just getting vertical up the seam wide ass open but he bends it like into the middle of the field Caleb throws it a little bit more vertical it ends up high and behind Komet and it's an incompletion and it's like those bang bang plays that you're talking about that like Like, I just think everybody having a second year in the offense, like those things are going to get fixed a little bit more.

24:58Robert Mays: I want to put a couple numbers on the out of structure struggles. And this is something, by the way, they're very aware of in the building. People have talked to people about this. They've been open about it. I think Ben Johnson talked about his press conferences, like scramble drill efficiency for this team was not good enough last year. If you're going to have a quarterback who moves around a lot last year as a runner, as a scrambler, 0.6 EPA per play for Caleb Williams. Very good. Top seven total EPA as a runner. The scrambles, we saw them. They were efficient. they were very good scramblers as a passer and ngs has this so scramble drill plays negative 0.14 epa per drop back on scramble on scramble drill plays for the bears 20 of 59 with a 30 and a half percent success rate on those plays and then that's got to be near the bottom right it's one it's it's definitely bad and it's especially bad when you account for volume when you start to add that stuff over and over and over again because we consider him like this again schoolyard kind of out of structure player on in structure plays last year 63.4 percent completion rate 45 and 0.6 percent success rate which was above average oh dude his um he was i i have the number he had the fifth best epa per drop back in the league when he was in rhythm and that's something that ngs charts as well where like when you're in the rhythm of the play two three five steps look look go like when it is an in rhythm play like that he was great it's all the crazy shit happens when it goes off kilter.

26:24Robert Mays: This idea that like all the good stuff is happening when he's doing the wild, insane shit that's completely unsustainable. That's actually not true. That's when a lot of the bad stuff was happening. His off target throw rate outside of the pocket last year was 19.4%. 13.4 % in it. That's still below average. It's still bad, but 19.4 % is five percentage points worse than any other full-time starter in the league. so it's actually the worst stuff was coming when they would get off schedule and try to get all this shit done and so i do think there's a chance that that volatility swings back into their favor this year in a way that it wasn't last year and i think that's something to keep in mind i do wonder

27:03Dave Helman: if too part of the things that he could work on because for him i think when he gets out of the pocket it's home run or throw away and i wonder if there needs to just be a little bit more like hey man DeAndre Swift is right there just like get it to him and run more I would honestly like him run more than he did last year in I agree sequential play that highlights this that drove me crazy and that's my big thing for Caleb and I don't that's for Ben Johnson to figure out but and I don't I'm not trying to compare him to Josh in the way of like making a leap but Josh has an innate package of skills that make him special that you don't want to remove from what he does.

27:42I think Caleb is the same way where that ability to corkscrew out of a sack and extend a play for six seconds and then throw the most audacious completion I've ever seen in my life. That is what makes him special. I need him to be thinking about doing it a little less often. Like, you know, in college, it's like it could be any play. And I guess that's still true in the NFL because he did a lot of wild fun shit last year but i don't think that's the right way to live at this level of football and i was i watched the second vikings game where it was second and 12 and they just ran like a little spot play with dj moore and he was just sitting there over the ball five yards down the field and it's like okay you throw it you're gonna get four or five maybe six yards if he like is contested you'll get to third and manageable and you'll live to see another day does he do that No, he breaks out of a pressure from Dallas Turner, which Dallas Turner, by the way, just filing that away.

28:41Breaks out of a pressure loops around in the backfield out as an apt is an apt term.

28:45Robert Mays: There is there you go. He races toward the six and ironically, he fires a completion to Loveland for like the same amount of yards. I was just like we did so we could remove three steps. And that's what drives me crazy about Caleb. of that. And I just, yeah, if we can manage that sort of decision making a little bit better, I think it'll go a long way. The last point I want to make about this, kind of the trajectory or the parting thought as we look forward. To me, the most encouraging thing, if you are somebody who is invested in his improvement, which I might be. In 2025, we knew about the SACs, right?

29:22Robert Mays: Or 2024, we knew about the SACs. Disaster. I mean, just like all time disaster didn't happen this year like the improvement in the sack taking and sack avoidance was unbelievable when you weigh it against what he was as a rookie the number one issue he had as a rookie he improved more than you ever could have imagined in year two the other element of his game that I remember talking about with Derek a lot at the end of that season as a rookie the throws down the field it was awful the the overall numbers on downfield throws for Caleb Williams as a rookie were just absolutely abysmal. 39th out of 39 quarterbacks in EPA per play, 35th in success rate, 36th in EPA per dropback.

30:04Robert Mays: Last year, 7th in total EPA, 11th in EPA per dropback, 10th in success rate. The two things he was worst at as a rookie, he got significantly better at in year two. And so where I land is, I'm not blind to this. He needs to be better. He absolutely needs to be better if this team is going to get where they want to go. he has shown us from year one to year two that he has the ability to get better and I do have faith that he can get there Derek you he you think he's going to be better yes a hundred percent

30:36Dave Helman: because it's those two things that Robert said and then I think even over the course of this year we saw him get more comfortable within the offense get more comfortable working within the pocket like he just I know he still has his fits and starts but from game one in the NFL to now he has clearly gotten better and I just think a young ascending player like that with that much talent is going to continue to do so I'm not confident the Bears are going to match what they did last year but I'm really confident that they don't need to worry about Caleb Williams like that's

31:06Robert Mays: where I came down on it I hope that is the case because a lot of the other stuff on that offense is ready to go and I hope that he is as well all right let's take our first quick break here and then come back and chat a little bit about the Cincinnati Bengals are you always searching for

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35:26Robert Mays: there have been and we're going to talk about more of them in this conversation there are a million parallels between the cowboys and the bengals a million well we've done it so often we've compared these teams so i find it fitting that we're kind of going to have the same conversation about the bengals as we had about the cowboys like a month ago the refrain all offseason has been if the cowboy if the bengal if the cowboys fix their defense they're going to be a super bowl team if the cowboys fix their defense they're going to be a super bowl team because the offense is so good. The same drumbeat is happening with the Bengals.

35:57Robert Mays: So we're going to ask the same question about Cincinnati, Derek, that we asked about Dallas. Is the Bengals offense really Super Bowl caliber to the point where if they get their defense to a passable level, they can be a contender? So where do you want to take this? Where did you come down when you went back and did some studying about the 2025 Bengals?

36:15Dave Helman: So I think because of the raw talent, it's possible. Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase T Higgins gives you that it gives you that possibility because I just think that like the raw talent there is it is incredible what I will say especially in relation to Dallas and I think it's important to do it up against them when I watch and study the Dallas offense compared to what the Bengals are the Dallas offense I think can do so many more things they can be under center more they can play action more I think the areas of the field that they can attack is a little bit different. I think especially going forward, if the offensive line is going to be a little bit healthier next year, I think they can be a little bit more explosive in the run game by virtue of some of the concepts that they're willing to run.

36:58Dave Helman: I look at Cincinnati and they're great at what they're great at. They are very good like gun and gun duo and inside zone team like they can be efficient that way. Obviously, their passing game just in terms of high success rate with what Joe Burrow can do always being able to throw one on one to Jamar Chase, they can be efficient. they are a very siloed offense still like they really do they have a limited pool of things that they do compared to other teams especially like Dallas and they are not as explosive as you think even last year they were not a very explosive team even when Joe Burrow was on the field and so for that reason again I still think it's possible because of the sheer talent I'm less I have a harder time getting there than I did with Dallas I think let's put a pin in this because I think

37:38Robert Mays: that's a very good way to frame this conversation and it brings us to a really interesting place I want to hear your thoughts first all right let me do this in two parts the to answer the question yes i do because shocking shocking that dave is a believer we're just we're doing the two teams that two of the three hosts are most invested in that's great um no i really do and this this part of it was was easy for me the part of deciding whether i thought the bengals offense was super bowl caliber. Joe Burrow rushed back from the injury, got back for week 13 and played the final six weeks of the season.

38:14And with him coming off of injury and we can get into the flaws with the Bengals offense, it's obviously not perfect, but with a rusty slash probably not fully healthy Joe Burrow, the Bengals were sixth in adjusted EPA per play, sixth in success rate, number 10 in epa per play number four and overall success rate top five in points scored over the six weeks that joe was back in the lineup and that's with a game where they got shut out by the way they averaged 28 points per game despite scoring a donut against baltimore in the dumbest game

38:50Robert Mays: he didn't play correct did he not play in the baltimore i believe that he did not play that

38:54Dave Helman: one yeah i watched that one it was yeah a lot of a lot of andre yoshevoff snaps i was looking up

38:59Robert Mays: the numbers on it they i think had a 0.04 epa per play with burrow on the field last year which only would have ranked ninth in the nfl which i do think is notable so even with burrow last year was still ninth with burrow chase and higgins on the field last year it was 0.18 it's pretty good that trio is pretty good they're really good and i good on you for pointing out that t didn't play i watched that game back this morning and like even in a game where you got shut out like they were moving the ball that was the game the most like ridiculous turnover luck ever the offense is really really good even with problems and things i'd like them to fix so we can get into it i and this is what's coming out of cincinnati otas and minicamp last month is yeah they they need to be more they need to be more different that's not great vocabulary but like they more varied They need more variation within the offense.

39:54We need to move out of this world where it's Joe in the gun all the time and, like, going empty on third down as often as they do. And the LSU offense, like, it's time to move on to a more varied, more NFL style of offense. Like, there's nowhere near enough play action in this offense. It would be stupid to do that because they only run the ball from under center. Like, they need to be—

40:17Robert Mays: 80 % run rate from under center in the second half of last season. It's crazy, which was the third highest rate in the league. The only two teams even in their zip code are like Washington who lives in the gun. All of their under center snaps are short yardage. All of them.

40:27Dave Helman: They tell you what they're going to do. They're just so talented when those three are on the field. And the offensive line is better than it was like two years ago that they can do it. But it's like it still feels so siloed to me that I struggle with it a little bit.

40:39Robert Mays: I'm glad you pointed out about the offensive line because I think there are two different things I want to hit here. I want to talk about the potential changes that might be coming with the drumbeat that we've heard in OTAs and even stuff they've been very explicit about. I want to talk about that. But I also want to dispel some misgivings about the offense as constructed last year. One of the reasons I wanted to have this conversation is I really did want to go back and watch the Bengals run game and offensive line in the second half of last year because both were vastly improved. We're talking about like a 45 % rushing success rate for Chase Brown in the second half of last season.

41:15Robert Mays: It was a top 10-ish rate. They were very efficient on the ground as they kind of settled in. And we didn't talk about this with Dan Pitcher on the show, but he did allude to it where they did not have Frank Pollock on the staff last year. It was the first year he hadn't been there in a while. So they didn't have a run game coordinator. So he had taken on a much larger portion of the run game. And I think it took them a little while to find their footing on the ground. And in the back half of the season, that did happen. So the run game was better. And I think the offensive line talent is just better than it has been in recent years.

41:48Robert Mays: Orlando Brown's probably slipping a little bit as he gets a little bit older. Ted Karras is an aging player. Dalton Reisner, even though he's played pretty well for them, is somebody they got off the street, right? I mean, he was very available. But now you have potential ascending players in Fairchild and Amarius Mims in a way that you just didn't have at those spots for a very long time. So I think the offensive line potential is better and the run game was much better and much better constructed in the back half of last year. So even before we consider the changes that are coming, I do think there were elements of this offense from like week 10 to week 18 last year that were a little bit different and a little bit improved from the way that we typically think about the Bengals.

42:27Dave Helman: I agree and I will say part of the frustration I have is like I I will admit fully I think the way that they run the offense I just don't like or enjoy and so maybe that is part of my frustration here it's an aesthetic choice from Derek it's a little bit of an aesthetic choice issue I will say this the way they've built the offensive line I love those because if you're going to still remain this like and they ran a lot of 12 last year but they are still more than other teams right exactly 12 in air quotes because it's mike josecki yeah exactly yeah but and so they're a team that still likes to spread it out a little bit give give the offense some air um and and by virtue of doing that um i think it makes sense for them that they are like how big can we get on the offensive line where if we're going to spread it out clear out the box we're just going to be as heavy as we can and like jam it down your throat like orlando brown as big as it gets for a tackle dylan fairchild is like 318, I think.

43:24Dave Helman: Even Ted Karras for a center, 310. Like, he's a big guy. Marius Mims is massive. I'm going to say, Marius Mims is impossibly large. Yeah, impossibly large is the way to put it. Like, those guys, even if some of them are imperfect players, you know, you maybe need a little bit of, you know, still need some development from, like, Fairchild. They've built this thing in such a way that complements what they do as a passing offense so perfectly. And I still want to see them get a little bit more under center. and like kind of leverage some of that run to play action, you know, in that way and do that.

43:55Dave Helman: But I do think that the way that they built it, if you're still going to be this spread shotgun offense, your run game, unless you have the quarterback involved, which they don't, you need to be like a, we can just move you off the ball at will four and five yards at a time. And they have at least built the offensive line to do that.

44:13Robert Mays: Problem with this is if you looked at just the numbers, right? And just if we were trying to tick boxes off from statistics that we want to see and statistical benchmarks we want to see. You look at their overall EPA per play as currently constructed. They're in the top five. Let's roll. You look at their success rate on the ground and be like, why do they need to change the run game? It's working as is, as a shotgun run game. We just listed off the stats. The problem is defenses want them to play like this. They're allowing this to happen. Like one of the reasons that you have such a high success rate on the ground as the Bengals is that the defense is just going to let you run duo for five yards every single play because the alternative is what they're afraid of.

44:55Robert Mays: Chase Brown last year, per NextGen, 47.8 % of his runs went into a light box. That was second in the NFL among all runners, all running backs who had at least 100 carries. Only Isaiah Pacheco was higher, which makes sense.

45:11Dave Helman: I was going to say those two offenses are closer than you would think in terms of like what they are actually accomplishing. That also explains why the Bengals had the best, the lowest percentage of stuffed runs. They always do.

45:24Robert Mays: Yeah, that is because that's how the run game is constructed. Yeah. In their mind, I think it's we just can't take negatives because our passing game is so good. As long as we're staying relatively on schedule, we're in the place that we want to be. But I feel like you have to start considering not just what your running game looks like into ideal circumstances. You have to start considering what it looks like into not ideal circumstances. And I think that's why you have to project this thing moving forward, because it's so easy to say, well, we're already good. We can live like this and be fine.

45:51Robert Mays: I think it's you're missing context there. It's easy to have a 45 % rushing success rate when you're running the ball down 38, 34 in the fourth quarter. I think the hope is this year you're up 28-24 and then you're having to run the ball. Can you do it in that situation? And I think as constructed with the gun-heavy world that they live in, that's going to be a little bit more difficult. And I think those are the things they're thinking about as they consider why and how this thing has to change this season.

46:23Dave Helman: And for that exact reason, that's actually why I want to compare them a little bit to the Rams. Because the Rams are a very high success rate, not very explosive run game. And they had some, but they're not as explosive as like a dominant run game as you would think. But the difference is that their run game is tied to being under center. They can do it out of 13. They can do it out of 11. They can play action off of it. They can boot off of it. They can do all these sort of things. That's not true with Cincinnati. Like it's very siloed to like we run gun duo and inside zone. And that's kind of it.

46:52Dave Helman: Like, again, it's defenses know what they're getting. And I think in the regular season, that means a little bit less when like, again, you can just you're passing places. like we're just throwing one-on-one balls to Tee Higgins and Jamar Chase. I do think this matters more when you get to the playoffs because how often do we talk about like, it's not just what is your best way to win and how good is that? It's how many different kinds of ways can you win? I'm not sure the Bengals have as many avenues, even as a team like we're comparing to like the Dallas Cowboys might. Joe Burrow had 16 snaps of play action from under center last year.

47:27I mean, he only played eight games, but that's still, the math is not great there. And that's, that's what we're talking about. I just, yeah. And ironically, I really love just as a fan of football, I love the way the Bengals play because it's how Joe played at LSU. Like it's, it's a nice, every Sunday I get a nice reminder of the best year of my sporting life, having Joe in the gun, figuring things out, scrambling when he needs to. I like it aesthetically, but I'm mature enough to realize where the league is going and what is working for other offenses. And the Bengals should absolutely want to be on that wave.

48:01Like, it just makes sense. And I maintain they're talented enough, assuming good health, that they could be Super Bowl caliber anyway. But why would you want to make it harder on yourself? Like, when you have all of these levers that can make it that much easier, why wouldn't you take advantage of that, even if they could do it the other way?

48:21Robert Mays: This is exactly what brings me back to the Cowboys. because Dallas, under the previous regime, they weren't doing this stuff. They were the shotgun, spread out offense. And I'm not saying if you're the Bengals, you have to go from being where you were to being the Bears, Rams, and Seahawks. That doesn't have to happen. Dallas, and I brought him up already on the show this week, but I'll bring it up again. Ryan Paganetti, who worked for the Raiders last year, is doing a ton of like really cool analytical work on Twitter that is just like little studies that he's been doing. And he was doing first and 10 play action rates.

48:53Robert Mays: and the Cowboys went from 40 % first and 10 play action rate in 2024, which would have ranked 31st this season ahead of only the Bengals, to 55 % this year. They went from 30, would be 31st to like 15th. That's it. Like you don't have to completely change your stripes, pardon the pun. You can go from 32nd to 20th and exactly like Dave is saying, just make it a little easier. Just make it a little bit easier. That is on the table for you. And I think there are so many different benefits that you get. You get to be more explosive as a passing game, hopefully, than you've been. But also, like Derek is saying, out of the gun, you're running duo and inside zone.

49:33Robert Mays: Like, you're just not very explosive. They weren't very explosive. On gun runs last year, 5 % explosive run rate for the Bengals per TrueMedia. That was 26th in the NFL. On under center runs last year, 11.5 % explosive run rate for Cincinnati, which was number one in the league. and I think the Rams are a perfect example of this. The Rams used to be a very gun-heavy team and they ran a lot of duo and inside zone from the gun. Even when they went under center over the last two years, the run game was still pretty duo heavy. And then this year, when they started to sprinkle in a little bit more counter, a little bit more, a few more dynamic runs, they got much more explosive running the ball.

50:14Robert Mays: And I think that's potentially waiting for the Bengals. And one of the benefits here is that they now with Fairchild, guys like that, have guys they can weaponize along the offensive line. You don't have to just hope it's four and a half yards and a cloud of dust and we're just really, really efficient. You can try to seek out these gashes from under center. And so I think people, when they're thinking about the explosive benefits of going under center and using play action, are thinking about the passing game. But in reality, I think there are actually explosive benefits for the running game as well that they were unable to realize last year.

50:46Dave Helman: And there actually is one player, I think that might help towards that end it might help them bridge together a little bit of that run and pass stuff if they want to eric all missed the entire he missed the entire 2025 season but in 2024 he was their second tight end yes he was their second tight end really good vertical threat like he's a good athlete he's not the best blocker but he's a guy who can move and they

51:11Robert Mays: because of that as a blocker though it reminds me of the conversations we've had about loved one a little bit where he's a little bit undersized but he'll snap his hips and he can get some movement you can use him in a bunch of different ways and they did and he's good and agile and so

51:24Dave Helman: like they exactly they moved they used him in a bunch of different ways he would be their second tight end on the line if they needed but he was their de facto fullback and without him in the lineup this last year they didn't really have that and so I don't expect the tight ends to ever really be like a major part of this offense but if you can bring him in and your 12 feels more like 12 than whatever it is with Mike Gusecki I do think that that gives you one more pitch and that goes to more what I'm talking about of just like, can this offense find more ways to win? The two or three ways that they know how to win are great, but it would be nice if you could have like five or six that are some degree of reliable for you.

51:59Dave Helman: And I do think that that could be one avenue for them getting there.

52:01Robert Mays: How much do you like hearing that they are already planning for this? I do.

52:07Dave Helman: I love that. And I think some of that, you know, we've seen them dabble with like some of the understand herself specifically and then go away from it and so i'm a little bit of like waiting for them to actually have a season where they really commit to it but the fact that they are thinking about it the fact that eric all is coming back um the fact that the offensive line is going into year two of this build i do think that there's actually some like a reasonable optimism that they can get there i hope it's true i'm always a little dubious of spring storylines because I don't know, man. No, but this one feels like pretty real.

52:39The amount coming out about it. And then I would hope that there's a sense of urgency in the Bengals building about doing everything you can to keep doing, to avoid doing it again, being this talented and not even sniffing the playoffs. So I'm optimistic that this is real, even if I'm usually pretty dubious of stuff like that. But yeah, like you use the term drumbeat earlier. Like it's loud enough that I believe it.

53:07Robert Mays: The last thing I want to say here, because we just made a flippant remark about the Gasicki 12 personnel stuff, but I actually did look it up. I wanted to know what their 12 personnel rates were without Mike Gasicki on the field in the second half of last season, because in the second half of last year, the Bengals were at 37 and a half percent, 12, which is the third highest rate in the league. But that is a fake number without Gasicki. It was still 26%. So they were still pretty 12 personnel heavy offense, even without Kosicki. And the reason I think that's worth mentioning is it shows they're open to living in that sort of world, even without him essentially being a wide receiver in the mix there.

53:42Robert Mays: So you're Drew Samples, you're Eric Alls. I hope Drew Samples is still on the Bengals. He is. You know what's funny?

53:49Dave Helman: You know what's really funny about Drew Sample? And I was actually thinking about this when I was doing prep. He is a very good blocking tight end. But when they drafted him in like 2019, it was like, why on earth would you spend a second round pick on a guy who's only going to block for you?

54:02Robert Mays: and now we've come around seven years later out of the curve yes and he's there and i'm watching

54:07Dave Helman: him i'm like man him and orlando brown are kind of moving people okay like this is this is pretty good and so it's just funny how that has kind of come back around for them yeah it is funny speaking of their personnel like we talk all the time about well if you don't do anything to a unit in an off season is that a good thing and i mean the bengals drafted they drafted a receiver and they drafted a couple offensive linemen but like they're running it back and And this is a case. This is an example of like, yep, yes, run it back. That's fine.

54:35Robert Mays: Well, I think it's, it gets, my question is always, how is it going to be different? It doesn't, the personnel doesn't necessarily have to be different. How is the offense going to be different? If you're not changing the personnel, are you doing anything structurally? The answer is yes. The answer is definitively yes. And I think that to me, if we're going to put a button on this, the question of, is the Bengals offense Super Bowl caliber and ready to go if their defense gets a little bit better? if they can properly incorporate a lot of this stuff with the right ratio, the right effectiveness, again, similar to what Dallas did last year, I think the answer for me is pretty definitively yes.

55:08Just in time for us to throw out the theory that having the 18th best defense in the league might not be good enough.

55:15Robert Mays: All right, speaking of defense, we're going to take one more quick break and then come back and chat a little bit about a defense in the AFC North.

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56:20Robert Mays: you have free access to all the coverage in our app. Download the Athletic app and see you there.

56:32Robert Mays: We're ending this series to me in like the perfect place when it comes to like the spirit of what we're trying to do here. I wanted to hit this one for a specific reason. All offseason, whenever we've talked about the Packers, Jesus, all offseason, whenever we've talked about the Steelers, it's come with this Rodgers caveat. Yeah, it always ends with that. I want to have a Steelers conversation that has absolutely nothing to do with that. The Steelers hired Patrick Graham as their defensive coordinator this offseason. Patrick Graham has been a defensive coordinator in the NFL, I believe, since 2019.

57:03Robert Mays: Yep. So he's done it for seven years now. This is his eighth year. His eighth year in the NFL. What is Patrick Graham in 2026? And how excited should we be about Patrick Graham and this Pittsburgh Steelers personnel? Because I don't think, again, speaking to the spirit of the exercise, a lot of us are really tuned in to the Raiders defense in week 14 of last year. So let's dig into this. Derek, how should Steelers fans and NFL watchers in general be feeling about Patrick Graham, the defensive coordinator after 2025?

57:37Dave Helman: Well, it gets tricky right off the bat. I don't think the 2025 Raiders defense will tell you almost anything about what Patrick Graham's defense is, because it was very different than the other three years that he was calling that defense.

57:48Robert Mays: I think it does tell you something. I think it tells you that he's willing to change from season to season based on what he needs to do. And I think he's been very, the first thing I, the first conversation I ever had with him, I was just talking about his defensive philosophy. And the answer was kind of like, I don't have one. It's like, whatever I need to do, whatever the players do, that's what I'm going to try to do. And so even if that is like, you're being flippant about it. And like, we can throw this away. I actually do think it's a data point worth pointing out in a good way.

58:17Dave Helman: It is. like because we talked about this like with when Raheem Morris went to like the Rams right where it's like he kind of had to throw out a lot of what he knew and like adapt to their defense and so it's it's a little bit of that situation obviously with Pete Carroll coming in and bringing a lot of his philosophies and it's not just the philosophies it's like part of the reason they change is what you're saying like the players were just different like Trevin Merrick leaves Robert Spillane leaves um Divine Diablo is no longer a starting linebacker like I think the range and body types that they had at certain positions was just different um so I think that that changed a lot of things for them.

58:47Dave Helman: But one of the big changes, like last year, they were 56.5 % in base, which is the second highest rate over the last two seasons behind only the 2025 lines. In 24, that was 24%, less than half. Like it was just a very different defense. Like the DBs were smaller. It was just a very, very different defense. They also in 20, I think another big difference is that the way that they handled run defense, I thought was also very, very different. in 2024 they were a lot more willing to like blitz on early downs uh whether run or pass and like be aggressive try to get in the backfield try to create negatives they were more of a gash or be gash defense and so they actually had a higher rush success rate in 24 but their explosive run rate allowed was two percent higher and their percentage of plays that went for five yards or more was three percent higher in 2024 so it was like that give and take whereas in 2025 they were more willing to be like we're not going to get into the backfield we're going to get into second and seven this is fine we're going to call our coverages and we'll be okay very curious what the

59:55Robert Mays: dialogue looked like between him and p carroll last year and like how much that influenced the way that they played because you look at it and the light box rates and how they played the runs one of the first things that jumped out to me per next gen last year 49 stacked boxes for the raiders which is eight or more guys in the box. That's the highest rate in the league. These numbers change based on the outlet or the source that you're looking at. Like True Media had them a little bit further down, but NextGen had them at 49%. That was more than 10 percentage points higher than the next closest team.

1:00:25Robert Mays: 2024, they played with light boxes at a league average rate. So it's just drastically different. And then you kind of play that out a little bit. Well, all your defensive tackles are not very good and weigh 300 pounds. You're starting Devin White and Jamal Adams at linebacker. and Jeremy Chin is one of the most important defensive players on your team. Should it be shocking to us that they're playing a lot of single high with eight guys stacked into the box and thinking that's the best way for them to win?

1:00:52Dave Helman: No, not at all. And that's the other thing about them playing like base. It's like, well, yeah, Jamal Adams was one of their linebackers that they were putting on the field all the time. And like, yeah, it's like, it's one of those like, quote, like the Gusecki thing. That is technically based. He was a spiritual linebacker. He was a spiritual linebacker. Exactly. But like, he feels like a halfway point for them, which I think made them more comfortable playing some of the coverages that they played. And actually, a little bit to that point, they, in 2024 and even seasons before that, Patrick Graham was way more willing to play man coverage, whether it was cover zero, cover one, whatever.

1:01:24Dave Helman: Last year, they did not do that. It was a zone defense. It was a zone and stack the box defense.

1:01:29Robert Mays: Second lowest man coverage rate in the league last year per next year. Less than 20 percent. 17 and a half percent. Which it was up over the three years before Pete Carroll got there, it was at 30. So that is, I mean, yeah, you can. Because he comes from a man world. Yeah. That's the funniest part about this, that you look at what they were doing when he was in Miami in 2019, and that was the offense, that was the defense. And so his ability and willingness to do different things, I think, is really notable. And listen, if this was the 32nd ranked defense in the league last year, we wouldn't give a shit that he was willing to adapt and change and everything else.

1:02:02Robert Mays: They finished 14th in defensive DVOA last season. I was about to say, I really think y 'all are burying the league. Yes. They were in the top half of the league in defensive DVOA. It's unbelievable. Who was the second best player on the Raiders defense last year?

1:02:18Dave Helman: Okay, I don't know if he's the answer. He might be. I think Isaiah Polamau is like awesome. I knew he liked him. That might be the answer. He's really good. Like, I actually think he's a good player, which, like, if that's the second best player on your defense, it's not very good. But I do think it's funny. Like, them getting all the way to 14th actually feels not that dissimilar from like clint kubiak getting the seahawks to like 16th or 17th or whatever it is we just don't care about it as much because the raiders won like five games i did going along the the theme here of what we're talking about the 25 raiders one thing that i think is really interesting about this and you mentioned 2019 he was the he started as the dc for the tank for two dolphins just an abysmal level of talent that was the year they traded Minka Fitzpatrick, I think Xavier Howard was still hanging out there, but five games that year, not, not a lot of talent to speak of two years in New York with Leonard Williams was still there and Dexter Lawrence.

1:03:15So certainly worth mentioning. And then it's not to say the Raiders had no talent during his time there. Like they had Crosby. He coached Robert Spillane, Nate Hobbs, Trevon Merrig, Amik Robertson, but it is not even, it's not even an argument that this is absolutely the most talent Patrick Graham has ever worked with on a defense this this Steelers defense he's

1:03:39Robert Mays: stepping into yeah I don't I don't really think it's close and and if you look at the results so they finished I think it was 20th in the league and excuse me 16th in the league in EPA per play this year per true media 16th in 2024 I think they were still in the top 20 despite having not a lot of talent yep 17th in 2024 in 2023 that was the year where remember they just drove the Chiefs nuts on Christmas and that defense was way better than we ever thought it would be. They were 13th

1:04:06Dave Helman: Jack Jones game.

1:04:06Robert Mays: And so we've got like consistent finishes in the top half of the league with not a lot of talent. And now you go to Pittsburgh and I just have a lot of inherent faith that he's going to do a good job there. But he is a forgotten man in a lot of ways because the Raiders have been a black hole in a negative way over the last five years. Like it's just where anything relevant goes to die when it comes to the NFL. And Patrick Graham has fallen victim to that. He's in a much more visible place now with much better players. And I kind of think we should be excited about it. They were 29th in defensive DVOA the year he got to Vegas.

1:04:42And in the three years after that, they were never worse than 18th. They were 18th, 8th, and then 14th this year on a defense that I remember doing the preview show last year where we were just like, outside of Crosby, what are we lining up with here?

1:04:58Robert Mays: And that ended up being correct, despite the fact that the results were pretty good. When you, and I went back and I watched a couple of games in the back half of the season this morning, and you just look, all right, so what did it actually look like? What were they trying to do? Where did they fall short? And again, it's a lot of stacked boxes. They played a shitload of cover three because they were playing in so many of those stacked boxes and maybe some P. Carroll. Very heavy cover three for a few different reasons. And then you watch it happen, and you watch where some of the negative plays are coming from, the coverage in the middle of the field, the second level of this defense, is just awful.

1:05:31Robert Mays: It can't get worse than it was. And again, there's still a very passable NFL defense. And so I wasn't exactly sure what to expect because this is a lingering question for a reason. I'm feeling pretty good about the Patrick Graham experience coming out of this and what it might look like in Pittsburgh.

1:05:50Dave Helman: Derek let me ask you a very on brand question yeah what do you think Patrick Graham can do for Patrick Queen and Peyton Wilson so I'm like I'm looking through all this shit and trying not to get excited that these guys could potentially be much better under Patrick Graham so I think they could be because what they will be asked to do will be simplified I think it's more likely we get back to what the 24 version of the gram defense was where it's it's more cover zero it's more cover one it's more where he actually ran a lot of like five and six man blitzes like he's a guy who was willing to throw things uh at the offense and like he's he's much more like closer to like the way that like brian flores will run a defense or steve spagnolo he'll do a lot of that they were number one in the league in disguise coverages this year per next

1:06:38Robert Mays: gen even despite some of the like the things they really did an extreme level they were still number one in disguise coverage rate in the NFL.

1:06:45Dave Helman: He does a really good job of that stuff when he's like bringing his pressures. And I do think that that's good for hiding linebackers where it's just like, hey, we're going to do this weird thing. Just sprint to the hash and like, don't let him throw that ball immediately. Because again, I think asking Patrick Queen and Peyton Wilson to just be standard drop back, cover your zone backers. They are not good at that, or at least have not proven to be good at that at this point in the NFL. And there maybe there's a chance that he changes it. But I think the roster, even outside of needing to hide the linebackers a little bit, is perfect for that style of defense.

1:07:16Dave Helman: They have three really good edge rushers. So on third down, you can bring the third one onto the field. You can have Kerbig, Highsmith, and Watt all on the field at the same time. I think they're a defense that even their defensive tackles are good pressure players. Queen, I think, is best used as a blitzer. And then the guys that they have in coverage, Joey Porter and Jamel Dean, yeah, baby, let's play some press coverage. Let's man some people out. So let's muggle them at the line of scrimmage and let our pass rushers get home. Like, I think it's more likely we get back to that style of defense than like the Pete Carroll hybrid ish defense we saw in 25.

1:07:49Robert Mays: And it's not outlandish to think that it could look drastically different because he's considered we looked drastically different based on whatever the circumstances call for, whether that's what your head coach wants, what your personnel limitations are. So, yeah, I think my answer to our lingering question here is that I should be feeling pretty good about Patrick Graham coming out of 2025. I came away from this excited about Steeler football. Don't worry about the other part. We're not talking about that. That's the whole point of having this conversation in this way is that we're not talking about that.

1:08:19Robert Mays: I'm pumped to watch the Steelers' defense. All right. I think that's our last lingering question. I think that's our last lingering conversation. Always enjoy doing these every single offseason. And if you haven't checked out the rest of them, we've got a lot of really good ones. I really enjoyed the conversations we had about the Lions and the Chiefs last week. The CJ Stroud show is available for you guys in your feeds. I call it that because that was the thumbnail on the YouTube that we also did two others on that. But I think these are some of the most substantial shows we do in the offseason.

1:08:49Robert Mays: It's a really fun chance to just dig in in a way that you can because you have the real estate and the time and the flexibility to do it. And we try to wield that to our advantage. And so if you guys have not listened to the other ones, now's your chance to do it. Please go check those out. For now, that is all we've got. We will be back on Monday with our next mailbag. Until then, talk to you guys soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

1:09:49We'll see you next time. mutual insurance group, which has been insuring homes for over 80 years. That's Arizona home insurance.com direct, reliable, affordable.