Which current NFL quarterbacks are worth acquiring for the #1 pick?

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1:28Robert Mays: Welcome to the athletic football show. I'm Robert Mays. It's another mailbag Monday here in the offseason. I am actually on vacation when you guys are going to be listening to this. Sincerely appreciate everyone holding down the fort while I'm gone. Still having three shows a week coming your guys way. Kicking things off with the mailbag. Today, a lot of really good questions. A lot of really good fun offseason questions. Just me and Derek. Sincerely appreciate everyone who spent the time to send these in. The reason we do them is because we love the questions so much. So thank you very much to everyone who participated.

2:01Robert Mays: For now, let's get to it. Another Mailbag Monday here on The Athletic Football Show.

2:15Robert Mays: It's another Mailbag Monday here on The Athletic Football Show. These will be happening when we're on vacation, but it's always good to keep doing them over the course of the offseason. Listen, I really enjoyed the set of questions that we had for this one and the next mailbag. So excited to dig into these. I'm going to read the questions today. Bell is having some internet issues. So let's start with Tristan. He said, recently there's been some discussion about what constitutes a successful number one overall pick. Specifically, Robert saying the pick doesn't need to turn into an MVP to be a successful pick.

2:45Robert Mays: With that in mind, what is the line for current NFL quarterbacks who would be worth straight up trading for the number one overall pick? specifically which quarterbacks would the Raiders have traded the number one overall pick for this year straight up so when you say straight up like you have to account for age and all that stuff right like I think of course Jared Goff quality wise I think clears that bar but he's 32 and you're paying him what you're paying him like I think at that point like you would want more of a runway for your number one overall pick right so to me the answer is probably like Trevor Lawrence like I would straight up trade the number one overall pick for Trevor

3:22Robert Mays: That's interesting. Okay, so you would. You would rather have Fernando Mendoza right now than Trevor Lawrence. No, no, other way around. I would rather have Trevor Lawrence than the mystery box of Fernando Mendoza. And I like Fernando Mendoza, obviously, to be clear. But, like, with what I see in Trevor Lawrence, like, I'm confident that's a, like, above-average NFL quarterback. And I still think has a little bit more to reach in his potential. Whereas, you know, maybe Mendoza can be that, but I think it's a complete mystery box. See, I think I'd still rather have Jared Goff over the next four years than Fernando Mendoza, even at that price tag.

3:59Robert Mays: I think we're underrating how hard it is to be as good at quarterback as Jared Goff is at playing quarterback. So I think that that's fair, but how long do the Raiders have to go before they are as good of a roster as like the 23 lines or the 24 lines? You know, like I feel like it would still be a one or two year runway by then. Jared Goff is 34, 35. And then what? You have a two year window with him. All right. I'll concede that Goff is right there on the line. Okay. Let's so the guys to fight definitively above the line. Right. We're like, if this and obviously like this team would have to want to do this.

4:34Robert Mays: So for these, our purposes here, let's just say they're willing to trade you their quarterback for the number one overall pick. Mahomes, Allen, Lamar, Burrow, Herbert, all yeses. Drake May, easy. Yes. the other 2024 guys i think caleb and jayden daniels i think i'd probably rather have caleb and jayden daniels than the number one overall pick even a couple years into their rookie contracts uh the guys that are closer to the line for age price all that other stuff i think stafford's an interesting one like i think even coming off an mvp season if you were the raiders specifically there's a chance you only get one year what are you doing in one year with matthew Stafford.

5:11Robert Mays: Right. Like this roster is not nearly good enough for that. Like he obviously clears the bar of talent. I think Dak Prescott is in like a similar boat where he probably has more of a runway than Matthew Stafford. But with how old he is and what you're paying him, like I just I don't know. So you'd get Dak's age 33, 34 and 35 seasons. I guess he isn't as old as I thought. Yeah. Dak I might be willing to do because he is like seven to me. Yeah. I think I would do that. I think Dak and Goff are similar. I mean, I'd rather have Dak, I think. But I think Dak and offer a similar enough conversation where I still think I'd rather have Jared Goff.

5:44Robert Mays: A couple of the other guys that I think are on the line. Would you rather have the number one pick in this year's draft or Brock Purdy?

5:55Man. The Purdy one is hard because I think it's really hard for me to divorce him from Shanahan. Of course. Man.

6:07Robert Mays: That to me is one of the tough ones. It gets really difficult because, too, like, they're paying him, but they're not paying him quite as much as, like, the elite, elite tier. And he is young. He is athletic. I might still want to say, like, generally have the number one overall pick, though. Maybe I'm being ridiculous. Brock is good. I don't know. He's good. That one is really hard, actually. It is hard to play quarterback in the NFL as well as Brock Purdy has played quarterback in the NFL. And so, to me, he's above the line. I have Goff, Trevor. the one where I kind of drew my cutoff point where it was like, all right, I think this is it for me.

6:44Robert Mays: Would you rather have CJ Stroud or the number one pick in the draft?

6:51I think I would rather still have CJ Stroud. And I say that for a couple reasons. One, in his class, I would have been willing to take him number one overall. So like he is, he was of that caliber of prospect and two we've seen him play pretty well and I don't think that many first overall picks in what he's had to play behind the last couple of years would have looked very good either and so I think we're colored by how he hasn't taken the steps that we thought he would take after his rookie year but I just like I don't think Fernando Mendoza behind that offensive line with no run game would look very good either and so I think I would probably still

7:25Robert Mays: That is also my answer. So this will depend on how you stack up the quarterbacks. But the next group that I had was like Darnold, Bowe, and Baker. And obviously those guys are all in different scenarios. Like Darnold and Baker are obviously at the same point in their career in terms of how old they are. So let's take those two guys first. Would you rather have the first overall pick in this year's draft or Sam Darnold?

7:51And Sam, I would probably still rather have the first overall pick. I think Sam Darnold is really good at a specific few things, but I think he is a good quarterback. I think he is closer to like what the 20, like 18 Titans with Ryan Tannehill were. And that team overall was just better with the Seahawks than some of those Titans teams were.

8:10Robert Mays: Can I talk you into picking Darnold because Darnold is locked in for the next three years at a reasonable price? So if anything, yeah, like you're not paying him$55 million a year. And that's the Tannehill problem, right? Is that Tannehill was cheap for a very short period of time. and then Tannehill got paid market level value. Tannehill got paid what Darnold makes now. Yeah. Because of the money, you can maybe get me there on that one. But I don't think I could take that same argument for, like, Baker Mayfield. But he's also just a little bit like it. Baker's a free agent after this year. And so I think that one's kind of dicey.

8:44Robert Mays: And then I don't – you're maybe not the right person to ask about this, but Bo Nix is the number one overall pick in this year's draft. Number one overall pick. I think that's where my cutoff line is too I think it's like Stroud and then Darnold is like right there and I think I'd still rather have Darnold and then below that I have like Bo Baker Jalen Hurts is in that range for me and then the guys that I think are interesting just because it's kind of a different set of considerations than everyone else would you rather have Jackson Dart or the number one overall pick in this year's draft? The number one overall pick and like Dart had some flashes but I would rather have the number one overall pick And I assume you'd say the same about Shuck.

9:24Yes. I think they've got paths, but I would rather have the prospect who I think was better from the jump. And it's not like any of those guys blew our socks off as rookies. They were fine, and you can see the path, but it's not like – it wasn't like 2016 Dak Prescott, where you're just like, oh, that guy is obviously an NFL starting quarterback.

9:42Robert Mays: So everyone's list is going to be unique and tailored to their own preferences and tastes, but right around quarterback like 14, 15 is where we're sitting. Yeah, I think that you would need to be like I would need to be have some amount of confidence that you are just about like in that top half of NFL quarterback. And then with a couple of them, you have to like think about money and age and stuff like that. But that probably is the range. Yeah. And I feel like this is justification for my viewpoint on this, because this is kind of where it's like, hey, if it's quarterback 14 and you're paying that guy on his rookie deal, you'd probably be pretty happy with that.

10:15Robert Mays: So I think that's a good cutoff. And obviously, like this is not a pure ranking of a quarterback quality. Like Caleb Williams is not the 10th best quarterback in the league right now. But when you bake in how young they are, development, flashes that we've seen from them, that's part of this consideration. Like if I was trying to win a Super Bowl this year, I'd absolutely rather have Dak Prescott than Caleb Williams. But that's not the question here. This is about long-term assets and multi-year assets. All right. Next one here from Rev West. If you look at the first five years of each coach's tenure, they're strikingly similar.

10:49Robert Mays: Mike Tomlin and Nick Sirianni. The biggest difference in my opinion is that Tomlin inherited a team that was less than a year removed from winning the Super Bowl with a Hall of Fame defensive coordinator, a young franchise quarterback, and a very talented roster built by a GM that looked like a surefire Hall of Famer. Whereas Sirianni inherited a team moving on from its franchise quarterback without in-house options at OCE or DC. If Sirianni's next 14 years goes the way Tomlin's did, he'd be such an abject failure that I think it'd be hard to imagine him lasting two years, let alone 14. So for their respective successful teams, Tomlin was not more involved in the X's and O's on the roster or the roster construction than Sirianni.

11:26Robert Mays: And yet Tomlin is treated like a great coach and Sirianni is treated like he's constantly on the hot seat. What gives? What do you make of this? I think that there are a couple of considerations. One, I do think it is a good question for trying to check our priors a little bit. Yes, I agree. Because like I was a huge Tomlin guy, obviously, before. I mean, for a while, like it's easy to be. I think he was a very good coach. And then Sirianni, I think, has been a little bit more of a complicated situation. Obviously, I think at least I have given a lot more credit to like how he's built the roster and some of the star players and obviously having Vic Fangio being there as the defensive play caller and stuff like that.

12:01And so I think a big reason, I think it's a fair question in terms of how we perceive them. But I think the primary difference is like it's how those fan bases and how those buildings also perceive like what the head coach is supposed to be like. Like, it just feels like there is a different amount of pressure to being the Philadelphia head coach. And so that's why there's always a little bit more heat on a guy like Sirianni, even if it's like similar accomplishments over that span, where I think there's a little bit less urgency and rabidness to what Pittsburgh was doing. Like, I think they had always felt more comfortable, like kind of playing the long game, just being respectable every year.

12:37Like, it just felt like they were more comfortable with that. So you just didn't get the heat turned up quite as hot. Whereas with Sirianni and the Eagles, and this isn't even just a Sirianni thing, it's with any Eagles head coach, anything short of like 10 wins in a playoff win is like it's not good enough. Whereas I just don't think you've got that amount of year to year volatility and rabidness with like the Steelers fan base.

12:59Robert Mays: I'd say a couple of things. I think our patience is different now than it used to be, period. The expectation for when you're going to get results from a head coach, those expectations have changed now compared to where they were a decade ago. And I think that some of that's justified. I thought a lot about this recently, just in how quickly you know about a coach, how quickly you should understand, like, this guy's a difference maker, this guy's not. And I think in this day and age, we do get a pretty fast understanding of who is and who is not a needle mover when it comes to the head coaches that we hire in the league, especially now that more and more of them are play callers.

13:34Robert Mays: because their impact on the team, I think, is a lot more tangible. And so it's easier to draw that direct connection. So I think that's part of it. I also think that with the Eagles over the last few years, there's just an inherent understanding that they have one of the best rosters in the league. Like, if you look at the talent top to bottom, I think that there's a collective understanding that this is one of the most talented teams in the NFL. The Steelers, if you look at it, so they made the playoffs all the way through 2011. their downturn was in like 2012 and 2013 they went eight and eight both of those years they did not make the playoffs if you look at and i assume that's what rev west is talking about here if you look at the those teams in those years in 2012 and 2013 i had to go back and look at this i'm not intimately familiar with the 2012 steelers roster and like where they were and what the talking points were the offense was very much in a state of transition in those two years The offensive line was really banged up.

14:33Robert Mays: Pouncey played one game, I think, in 2013. Their tackles were kind of on and off the field. And then they drafted DeCastro right in there. And then Pouncey got back healthy. And then in 2014, that's when Le 'Veon Bell really broke out, and the offense became like a top-10 offense. If you look at the defense in 2012 and 2013, Polamalu only played seven games in 2012. That was James Harrison's last year there before he spent that one random year in Cincinnati. Like there just weren't that. Cam Hayward was in year two. So the Steelers top to bottom, I just don't think had nearly as much talent as the Eagles have had over the last couple years.

15:12Robert Mays: And so that's my read on it. Again, that may be imperfect and an imperfect kind of representation of what those teams actually were. But I think right now we can all collectively understand that when you have the talent on the Eagles roster, you should be winning double digit games every single year. So those are kind of the two considerations to me, just the lack of patience we have now and the fact that we know what the Eagles are. I think you could make an argument about truly how good those 2012, 2013 Steelers teams were when they had that kind of two year swoop. and I think that that's a really good way to frame like the rosters and stuff because part of the question frames is like well Tomlin stepped into a roster that had just came off of a Super Bowl and so you could say maybe in year one like and then he won one he won one so he made good on it but then yeah to to what you were saying like sure maybe the Eagles year one roster was not as good as what the Steelers year one roster was for Tomlin but since year two year three year four of Sirianni, they've built consistently one of some of the best rosters in the NFL.

16:10Like the cupboard has never been bare in Philadelphia. And so and I think, again, I don't remember some of like what the reporting or or what the vibe was during some of those Steelers seasons in like 2009 or whatever it be when they were winning eight games and winning nine games. But whenever the Eagles have downturns, there's always so much pressure of like what's going on in the building and all this stuff. And it just again, I think the scrutiny now is a little bit different than it might have been 15 years ago. And so, and then I think part of the other question too is like, you know, we've gotten to year 13 of Tomlin and then he had continued to get this benefit of the doubt.

16:45And it's like, well, yeah, he had done it for over a decade. Whereas with Sirianni, we're so much shorter into his tenure that I just don't feel like, like that has been built up as much, if that makes sense.

16:55Robert Mays: In year one of Tomlin, they go 10 and six, they lose in the wildcard round. In year two, he wins the Super Bowl. And so just think about how much leeway, especially in that era, that buys you. They go nine and seven in year three. So that's like a small step back. Then they lose in the Super Bowl. Then they go 12 and four again in 2011 before that kind of two-year downturn. And so after winning the Super Bowl, they had one small step back and then two 12 and four seasons. And so, and again, I think that just how much the Eagles have bottomed out in some of those years where they haven't necessarily gotten all the way to the Super Bowl, the way those years have ended, how kind of hopeless those couple years have felt.

17:35Robert Mays: I mean, if you look at the Steelers, the Steelers did kind of come to this place where they also had like an offensive coordinator that just kind of ran its course. Like they, Bruce Arians was the offensive coordinator there until 2011. And remember he left and went to the Colts and then they replaced him with Todd Haley. but I don't think there was ever, they finished 21st in scoring in 2011, but I still don't think there was the feeling of like, this is so ugly, everyone has to be fired. Like Bruce Arians immediately got another offensive coordinator job. It wasn't like they ran him out of town on a rail.

18:09Robert Mays: And so at least how I remember it. So I just think that the dynamics at play are just a little bit different for how we talk and think about the Eagles roster and expectations than they were for the Steelers at that point. All right, before we move on, let's take our first quick break.

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20:12Robert Mays: Right now, you're probably listening to this podcast on a wireless network. the same wireless network you swipe, scroll, and hopefully download the latest episode of the athletic football show on. But if you're a first responder, you shouldn't have to compete with my voice to get a clear signal. That's why there's FirstNet, a clear wireless lane built with and for first responders. So in an emergency, first responders get there first because a network that's not just for anyone helps everyone. To learn more, go to firstnet.com or visit an AT &T store for details.

20:51Robert Mays: next one here from tuxedo cats what is the best coaching staff you can assemble using only the current nfl head coaches finally if given an average nfl roster how far could your team advance in the playoffs i've built like full staffs on each side of the ball yeah i i went down to like okay b's coach and all that stuff i didn't necessarily do like past game i didn't i didn't go like 14 layers deep but i have i named i have past game coordinators and run game coordinators on both sides okay and and that's fair some of them i think i could i could fit into here and it would work but i have like 10 or so names so let's just start who did you who okay i'm gonna start with head coach i'm taking sean mcveigh i just think that has the best quality of offensive head uh you know play calling head coach and also just i think his overall scope for what the building can do is just the best.

21:42At OC, I don't think he's necessarily the second best offensive mind, but I put Ben Johnson in part because I wanted Kyle Shanahan somewhere else. Interesting.

21:53Robert Mays: Okay. So where'd you put Kyle Shanahan? I have Kyle Shanahan actually as my wide receivers coach because I think he is excellent at that. And so if I'm truly trying to maximize the quality of what I'm getting out of that position, that's where I think I can get that. And then I don't think I'm losing anything by not having Kyle at offensive coordinator because I think Ben Johnson also does such a fantastic job. And so that was where I put him. The one question I was going to have for you before I run through mine, if you were hiring a coach solely to handle, I guess not solely, because you're incorporating some action passes in there too, but if you had somebody to solely handle the passing game, like that was their purview, who do you think is best in that role specifically?

22:32Robert Mays: That's the one where I didn't have like a clean answer. All of the other ones I felt like, all right, I can, I know who I want in these spots, But passing game coordinator on offense specifically was the one where I have a name, but it's not one that was very clearly and quickly apparent to me. If I had not put Ben Johnson, I think it might be him. And I use Sean Payton for something else, but it might be Sean Payton, which is funny because they have a little bit of shared DNA. But I just think that that coaching tree, if I'm thinking where I want to make sure I cover my bases a little bit better with pure pass, it's probably that tree.

23:06Robert Mays: I considered Sean Payton for that reason, just like the dropback world of that offensive system compared to like the McVay world. I eventually went with Liam Cohen just because I think it's clean enough. Like if he's just, if he's handling the pass game. So on offense, I had McVay as my head coach. Shanahan is my offensive coordinator. I had Liam Cohen as my pass game coordinator. I had Ben Johnson as my run game coordinator. Okay, that's fair. I think I like that. I think if you talk to other guys around the league and just how involved he is in the creation of the run game. I think he has a really good reputation in that area, specifically among all these play calling head coaches.

23:43Robert Mays: I had Kevin O 'Connell as my quarterback's coach. See, that's where I started. And then I actually, I ended up landing on Jim Harbaugh. Interesting. Yeah. Interesting. Dynamically, that might be a little bit weird, but his track record is like pretty undeniable with what he's gotten out of this quarterback. So basically every stop. canalis i had as my receivers coach because he's done it and then i had dan campbell coaching the running backs just like purely for vibes i had him as my tight ends coach i mean he's he's played the position he's done it before like that makes sense probably be i hadn't put a run game coordinator but he probably would be mine i i'd originally forgot to put an oc and had shanahan as the tight ends coach and so that's why i i don't have one on this list would you do on defense really quickly.

24:31Oh, line coach was harder to find. Cause there's just, I put Andy Reed. He's really the only guy who like has been one and is a NFL head coach right now, but that was hard to find. I think that,

24:42Robert Mays: or I think you probably, Dan Campbell could probably coach the offensive line too. If you're a tight end coach, like that's, he was my first guest. And then I was like, there has to be somebody who's done it before. And so I, I went look, I think it's just Andy Reed. There's, there is some overlap. If you look at like tight end coach history and offensive line coach history there are guys who have moved from one to the other like um to me i'm just off the top of my head the best example clayton adams is the tight ends coach in indy for several years before he ended up becoming the offensive line coach in arizona so i think there's at least some overlap if you've been a tight ends coach before what'd you do on defense so defense i've got mike mcdonald call in place i mean why would you not and then i did d-line coach linebacker coach and db's coach D-line, I put Robert Sala.

25:25That was actually a little bit trickier for me to find, but I just think that his defenses have always had that.

25:29Robert Mays: Dan Quinn has been a defensive line coach. That's why I picked Dan Quinn. Yeah, I almost did Quinn, but I think I kind of just like Sala's defenses a little bit more in general. So I ended up picking, but you're kind of going for the same thing, right? Where it's like this four down, just like get after it off at the edge kind of front. So Dan Quinn does actually make a lot of sense because he's done it. D 'Amico Ryan's linebackers coach, that one. Felt pretty easy to me. And then DBs, I know he was obviously not a good head coach in his first year with the Jets, but Aaron Glenn's track record as a DBs coach is very good.

26:03And so I'd probably take him there.

26:04Robert Mays: The other ones I had among the head coaches, Jesse Minter, past game coordinator on defense. I almost made him DBs coach, so I like that. I had Sal as the run game coordinator. Okay, that makes sense too. So that's fun. I think with an average roster, that coaching staff can win a playoff game. well i think so i i think that could that maybe even like they could get you probably run out of road in terms of star power by the time you get to the conference championship but you could win like a divisional game i think i think a wild card round weekend game that that to me feels realistic when you get into divisional round and while and actual conference championship sunday i think the talent starts to shine through this would get closer to like we would have to find what we think is roster 16 right now in the nfl and then be like what would they do with that that's going to take a little bit more time but well let's what let's do it yeah let's all right let's look at let's look at all 32 teams or actually what are super bowl odds right now which is going to be a little bit shaded a little bit by who these teams coaches are at the moment that's true but still all right so looking at right now like it's basically the jaguars like do you think that they could get to the conference championship game with the jaguars yeah if it's the jaguars i think Yes, because that's like I think the Jaguars could get to the conference championship game with this with this group of coaches.

27:24Yes, because that's like somewhere between roster, probably 14 and 17, just depending on how you feel about it. I think that they could get there.

27:32Robert Mays: Yeah, when you actually put it in like real terms, like practical terms like that, I could buy that team with that coaching staff winning two playoff games. I absolutely could. All right. Next one here. Eric said Tim Robinson showed us that sharing nachos is a better window into a person's character than having a beer. So pick a table of people to split a platter with. A head coach, a GM, and a starting quarterback who would all share nachos with integrity. I saw an amazing viral tweet. I think it was yesterday or the day before where somebody was saying that when they're sharing nachos with somebody, they're always thinking two steps ahead, which it's exactly how I see a plate of nachos, where it's not just what I'm going to do this time.

28:14Robert Mays: It's like, what are the next two? And then I also saw. What bites are left? Yes. Like where, where am I going? Like it's almost like a chess board. So I've had a lot of nacho content for me recently, but what is your answer to this? Who are you sharing a plate of nachos with? I, so this one was, was interesting. I think for head coach, I would want someone who feels a little bit more chill, a little bit more slow. And so I was kind of debating between like D 'Amico Ryans and maybe like Kevin Stefanski. Those two guys seem like chill. They're not going to dominate the nacho platter here. That's kind of where I started at head coach so i had two different answers okay is this a group of people that i think would be like you just said pretty chill laid back normal experience like the three people in those roles head coach gm and starting quarterback who feel most just like a person you would run into at a sports bar and have a conversation with my answer was kevin stefanski joe hortiz and jared goff goff i almost had for quarterback i think quarterback is actually the easiest to find good answers for here.

29:18I thought GM was hard. And then head coach is like, there are a couple of good answers, but I think that was also a little bit tricky.

29:25Robert Mays: Just having had conversations with all of those people, I think that would just be like the most, this is a group of actual human beings that I can sit here and have a conversation with. The other answer I had was just what would be the most entertaining hour of my life or two hours of my life? That answer was John Schneider, todd monken and josh allen see i would almost want a quarterback who's a little bit more insane than josh allen and really just like turn that up to an 11 i'd still want it to be a place i'd want to be fair enough fair enough you can't you can't go like overboard i think that's fair i did have josh allen on my short list for quarterbacks um quarterbacks was hard like i like i think trevor would be incredibly chill sam darnold i think seems like a very delightful man darnold would be my other answer if it wasn't Jared Goff.

30:12There you go. Okay. Like I think Tyler Shuck seems like a good time. Jordan Love is one of the few players that I have met. I think he is like my tempo. He's just a very laid back sort of guy. And I think that that would be a good time. So my shortlist for quarterbacks ended up being not very short. You big nacho guy. Uh, I don't know if I order them all the time, but it's like, how could you not enjoy them whenever they're there? If they're there, I will go to town, but I don't feel like I'm always the

30:39Robert Mays: guy pushing for it my problem is most of the time i feel like a place that serves nachos like any sort of sports bar the nachos are like a c minus like there's aren't that many places where nachos are available to me that i think the nachos are worth getting there are a couple places in the city though where i'm like i the nachos i think are very very good i would rather make them or also again this gets tricky if you're talking about sports bars because they can be pretty mid to, but I have a friend who just makes like incredible quesadillas and dips. And like, if I'm doing just like a dippable kind of cheese sort of thing, I kind of lean there a little bit.

31:15Robert Mays: All right, before we move on, we're going to take one more quick break.

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32:51Robert Mays: Alright, next one here from Shrilly. said this is a question based on some of the dialogue and this and other discords how many backfields are there where both the first and second running back are debatably as good as each other so more 1a 1b instead of a clear pecking order rotation how many teams did you have for this so i had i think three that i felt decent about and then there are like four or five backfields that i just like genuinely do not know what to do with at this state in time and so the three that i landed on were New England. I feel like that feels like a legitimate, like one, a one B with Stevenson and Travion Henderson, uh, Pittsburgh to me with Jalen Warren and Rico Dowdle.

33:32I think that that's like a relatively fair one, two split. And then I actually want your thoughts on this. Where are you at with Chicago? Like, do you think Deandre Swift and Kyle Menonga is close enough that that's like a one, a one B? Yes.

33:44Robert Mays: That, that is, that is one that I had on my list. I had way more than that. I, there were a few that I just like genuinely don't know how it's going to shake out like Jacksonville for example with Basial Tootin and like Chris Rodriguez and Allen like I just that one I just genuinely don't know how that's going to shake out Washington I felt similarly about Carolina New York I think there were teams where I like a team like the Patriots I know that those top two guys are going to get the majority of the carries and I feel good about what the share is going to be with teams like New York or Washington.

34:19Like I, I actually just don't know what the share is going to look like. So it was harder.

34:24Robert Mays: I just think right now on May 20th or whenever we're recording this, which ones do you feel like there's a clear pecking order delineation between them? And so, and which ones are a little bit murkier? I had Jags. I had the Titans just because like, I don't know, Tony Pollard is whatever. Like, that's one where I think that says more about Tony Pollard standing than it does about Tajay Spears. The Broncos, like, we'll see what happens with year two of R.J. Harvey. Like, obviously year one wasn't very good, but I think that one could be a little bit murkier by the end of the year. Washington, the Bears.

34:57Robert Mays: I had the Vikings with Aaron Jones and Jordan Mason. I had the Bucs. That was what, yes. With Kenny Gainwell and Bucky Irving. Kenny Gainwell and Bucky Irving. Yeah, that's a good one. Obviously, Bucky Irving had a fantastic rookie year. was banged up last year, but the Bucks made Kenny Gainwell$7 million a year. Like, I think that is going to be a little tighter than it might seem. And I also even think after spending a first-round pick on him, think about the way they've used their backs in the past. When Zach Charbonnet is healthy, I think the Seahawks are going to be one of these teams. Yeah, that one I just pushed out of my mind because he's hurt.

35:31Yeah, no, I think you're totally right. Because Price had never been a lead back, even in college. And so he probably will be splitting time in the NFL. That's true. patriots is a good one and then i also had the steelers so i had i mean what is that that's 10 teams i that's well that was the thing is i think that there are a lot of teams that do not clearly have a bell cow back i just i guess in my mind i was imagining this more as like what teams have two actually good backs that also are definitely going to get carries where i think some of these teams like it's not necessarily two very good players splitting carries it's just like that's where the backfield is at.

36:08Robert Mays: So you read more into the 1A, 1B thing that I did. To me, it was just like, where is there a clear line of demarcation between the top guy and the next guy? Yeah. Next one here from Headline Plays. Bit of a silly one, but who is the best player on any team you would sacrifice for a game if it guaranteed you a pick six at some point in said game? It's the biggest swing play in football. Is it worth missing, say, a T. Higgins caliber guy? There's no injury involved. basically the Jalen Carter spitting incident for profit. Who is your answer to this? So it has to depend on the team. Like I wouldn't want to do T Higgins because I just don't think the Bengals have enough options to score points if they don't have a T Higgins.

36:50And so I know you're getting the free six points, but like that one seems a little bit tricky to me, especially with how bad their defense is. I do think someone like Jalen Carter is a good one because the rest of that Eagles defense is still really good. And so getting a free six points for that defense to play with is good. I was also trying to find a Texans player I felt was a good answer for that exact reason, where it's like elite defense that can afford to lose a very good player if you give me a free six points. The problem then is like...

37:17Robert Mays: It's not just a free six points. It's more than six points. Right, you're also stealing a possession. It's a turnover plus six points. Right, right, right. I think you are underrating how important that sort of swing is. I was looking up just random pick sixes over the course of the season just to see like what the epa swing is on a on a pick six and some of these are a little bit uh skewed because a team was deeper into the opposing territory before the play happened well so that's where it gets tough right exactly but so like for example the uh earnest jones pick against max brosemer was a 10 point swing in epa because yeah they were on what like the 10 yard line or whatever it was 10 points it's a lot even even if it's eight points there is no non-quarterback in the nfl that's probably worth eight points in a single game i don't think i don't know if there is a position player that would justify this in terms of how they end up shaping the betting odds that is true but i don't think that is actually true to be clear my answer that i actually put down was daniel hunter i think the texans could afford to lose to Neil Hunter because they have Will Anderson for seven points worth of value I think maybe maybe there are a few examples of this over the years you could point to like the Eagles on off splits without Lane Johnson at times and how crazy those looked like maybe somebody like Christian McCaffrey just like how much of an engine of the offense he is but even with those like one-off examples i'm not sure there's any non-quarterback for one game that i would pick over something like this if you don't have any sort of option as a swing tackle maybe that's it but you can spend all game chipping that guy like i just think that you can account for any player almost any player you would miss in this scenario in a way that eight points like an eight point swing an EPA like we're talking about here would be worth it I think maybe too I've been I think maybe too I was struggling with I think when I took this question I was imagining it as like every game of the season this is how I'm doing it it probably is different if it's like can I survive for one game it's one game yeah I don't know even then I don't think the betting odds do a good enough justice to like how important some of these players are all right so who are the actual examples like if we're if if we're willing to play in the sandbox we're like non-quarterbacks it's very very hard to get there who do you think are the non-quarterbacks that are that load-bearing where they would be they wouldn't be worth sacrificing in something like this i think there would be a lot of them i think there would be almost like a dozen tackles i think the top three or four corners a dozen tackles yes it's a it's a deeply important position and some of these teams only have one good one.

40:11Robert Mays: I think you are drastically overrating. So in your mind, the Vegas odds just are wrong in terms of like how the line would swing if one of these players was missing. They're just wrong. Depending on how important I think the player is, if you're missing like all pros, yes, I do believe that they are wrong. Give me an example. Like Patrick Sertan. Like if the Broncos lose Patrick Sertan. No, absolutely not. Absolutely not. I would rather have Patrick Shurtain. You think that the downgrade from Patrick Shurtain to Jaday Barron is eight points. They can only play the way they play because they have Patrick Shurtain.

40:49Robert Mays: Yes. I'm just not sure there's any non-quarterback that's going to clear this bar for me. Even the guys who are completely central to the way a team operates. I think that there are. I would have a good amount. I'm going to ask a couple coaches this question. Okay. I would want to hear what they say. Yeah, because this is always fun. I remember for them. It's also is it worth the headache of having to like re game plan for like not having these guys? Obviously, seven points is a lot. But the one that feels similar to me, this was a question we got. It's crazy that I remember this. It's almost five years ago.

41:23Wow.

41:24Robert Mays: We got a mailbag question that was, would you rather for the rest of the season be guaranteed that your team would not suffer another injury or be guaranteed to never turn the ball over again? and the coach I asked like emphatically was like turnovers like if you promised me I would never turn the ball over again and so that this reminds me of that because it's like I think you are understating how crucial in a one game sample it would be to know going in that you were going to have a pick six at some point in the game it's like a massive game swinging play I probably am But I just I think it's hard for me to say, like, I don't want Kyle Hamilton on the field or whoever it is.

42:08Like, it's hard for me to emotionally get there.

42:13Robert Mays: I still think the list is much, much shorter than you're making it out to be. All right. I think it's long. Next one here. This one doesn't really apply to you and we're tweaking it a little bit. But Captain Punches says high fidelity style question. Your all time top five football breakups in autobiographical order. autobiographical by pain level. So I don't really have these like a coach or player leaving the team where like truly like broke my heart. There are guys that they were tired and like, I was sad to see them go, but I think that's a little bit different. I'm changing this. I'm going to do heartbreaks, like top five football heartbreaks when it comes to like a moment that just left you emotionally devastated and the fallout and having to deal with that.

42:55Robert Mays: My number one still to this day is not the bears losing the super bowl. It's the NFC championship game lost to the Packers in 2010. That one still lingers with me in a different way than even losing to the Super Bowl. The Super Bowl season, I was a freshman in college. It was so magical. It was a hard day. I watched that game in my college girlfriend's dorm room, which was a terrible mistake. I cannot believe that's how I watched the Super Bowl. I think I wanted to be alone. I don't want to try to figure out what my 18-year-old brain was thinking. but the 2010 that was my senior year of college I was at a bar in Chicago like I love that 2010 team that was the Julius Peppers year like it just I really really love that team losing to the Packers in that way for the quarterback to get hurt during the game like it's being a pick six is like the BJ Raji play that I still like see in my nightmares like that one still is probably number one weirdly number two and i'm there's a lesson to be learned here in terms of like heartbreak in the moment because it was the last play of the game the 2013 aaron rogers randall cobb walk off in week 18 that won them the game that chris conti played that honestly might be number two really even even though it's a regular season game just because it was the end of the game right just because it was the end of the game like it swings in that moment like the emotional kind of yank from they're going to the playoffs so this is over and this guy tore our hearts out again that might be number two super bowl is number three uh double doink is probably number four is that one at least funny though no no no yeah maybe this is me just being removed that one is funny to me that that's that is one of the 2018 team is one of the the times i'm like i was most susceptible to being blinded by the excitement that comes with having a team that wins more games than it should like for whatever reason at that point i was also like i was my life was a mess at that point but i was just in a place like watching that 2018 team where like even if like logically i knew that that team wasn't good enough the defense was so good and so fun that you can convince yourself it's capable of more than it actually is and they stopped the rams who was stopping the rams at that time it just so that one that one was tough because i think i had deluded myself into believing that that team could win a playoff game or two and then the 2005 divisional round game with Steve Smith just like absolutely burning down that Bears defense like that was the first year oh four you could see the glimpses of it but then in oh five that oh five Bears defense that was like they were a truly great defense that year and so to kind of really start falling in love with that version of the rant of the of the team and that era of the team and then for Steve Smith to come in and just like rip out your hearts and like stomp on it like that was that was a really really tough one so those are probably the five that i would say in order of pain and suffering that they caused see those are interesting yeah because those are really not like players stepping away or situations breaking and stuff those are just the moments that never really in terms of football i don't maybe i'm far enough removed from it now and how i think about it that i don't i've kind of like i've forgotten whatever emotional toll like a player leaving and there there are weird ones like they're they're they seem small but in the moment they bummed me out like the bears trading greg olson like that that bummed me out um weirdly both of these were to carolina the bears letting chris harris go like when they let chris harris go sign with the panthers that was even in the moment i was like this is stupid like i can't believe this is happening but like those are probably the two that would stick out and those just aren't that monumental like they're just they're very small ones and so i think heartbreaks is probably a better set of answers and i would say those are the five okay that's good yeah see i i don't really have as as much of those i will say in terms of like quarterbacks i have adored and like them stepping away the andrew luck one hurt a lot like i i was genuinely distraught as a human being when andrew luck stepped away most of my other like fan related ones would just be like esports ones like i had when i first started watching league of legends again in 2018 i was 100 thieves fan and they had had uh this player named someday on the roster and he was just a rock for like five years and then when he stepped away and played for a different team that was one where i was like i it it felt weird seeing him in another jersey even if he'd probably passed his prime watching julius peppers play for the for the packers after playing for the bears was a tough one that's brutal that that was a tough one seeing him do like a lambo leap even if he wasn't somebody that obviously the french guys can claim because he's still a panther first and foremost it was still like watching him go from Chicago to Green Bay.

48:00Robert Mays: That one I did not really enjoy. All right. That is all we've got for today. We'll be back next week with our next mailbag. Sincerely appreciate everyone who took the time to send in some questions. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

48:56Robert Mays: We'll be right back. Memorial Day clearance now through May 25th. It's smart to always have a few financial goals. And a really smart one you can set? Earning cash back on what you buy every day. And with Discover, you can. Get this. Discover automatically matches all the cash back you've earned at the end of your first year. Seriously. All of it. And we trust you to make smart decisions. After all, you listen to this show. See terms at discover.com slash credit card.

49:53Robert Mays: Still waiting in line? Thank you.