Which division is most likely to put three teams in the playoffs?

0:01Derrik Klassen: Golf has come a long way in the past century. Today, the R &A and Accenture are partnering to celebrate its heritage while shaping what's to come. Together, the R &A and Accenture are reinventing the future of golf, using data and technology to enhance your experiences of the game and drive the growth of golf worldwide. All this, and there's more to come. Accenture, the official business and technology consulting partner of the R &A. Learn more at Accenture.com slash R &A.

0:57Derrik Klassen: Best business news ever. Liquid IV makes it easy to stay hydrated wherever life takes you. So shop now at liquidiv.com. Liquid IV hydration that goes wherever life takes you. This summer, JBL is on a mission to help you tune into what you love. Audiobooks, podcasts, and everything in between with JBL's live headphones. These headphones are perfect because of their high-res sound, making your fave stories and voices come alive with so much detail, exactly the way they were made to be heard. Plus, they have 80 hours of battery life, so you can binge without pressing pause all summer long. Find your pair at JBL.com.

1:40Derrik Klassen: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I am Dave Hellman, and we have got a fun thought exercise for you on today's show. What if I told you that three teams were going to make the playoffs from the same division in this 2025 NFL season? To me, as somebody who has to prognosticate and put together a playoff field every summer, it sounds far-fetched. Until you realize, yes, not only did it happen last season, not only did it happen twice last season, it's actually happened each year since the NFL expanded the playoff format to seven teams. As outlandish as it seems to me, trying to pick the playoff field every summer, This is actually something you can kind of count on, which makes it fun to try to identify which division is the most likely to do it this year.

2:30Derrik Klassen: So that was the goal for Derek Klassen and I on the athletic football show today. We started at eight and worked our way up to one, the least likely to most likely divisions in the NFL to produce three playoff teams. Very fun show. Very outside the box show. Let's get into it.

2:52Derrik Klassen: All right, Derek, I believe Robert is somewhere on his Midwestern swing of his training camp tour, which the point is to get intel and make connections and learn about the upcoming season. From the sounds of it, he's doing an incredible job looking forward to learning more about what he's picking up out there. But in the meantime, the indirect consequence is like a crash course in you and I's chemistry, which I really appreciate. Like we just had this two week stretch to just play catch up on a lot of stuff.

3:23Dave Helman: And I appreciate it. Yeah, we're we're speed running the, you know, trying to work out all the kinks, which has been nice. This is like our preseason. You know, we're getting the reps that we need. We're we're, you know, pads are hitting all that stuff. And we're getting back up to game speed. And I think that's what we need. By the time he gets back, we're going to be a well-oiled machine.

3:42Derrik Klassen: Exactly. Looking forward to that. And I'm looking forward to this topic we're doing today, which I think is pretty far out there when you're when you're talking about projecting the upcoming season. And would you agree with me? It's hard to talk about this stuff and prognosticate while also holding your your takes back. You know, we've still got a ton of division previews to do. We haven't made any sort of picks. it's hard to do this without giving some of that stuff up. But I think this show is going to give us that opportunity.

4:15Dave Helman: I'm definitely going to have to give give up some of my takes. I think especially about teams that I'm a little bit iffy on their playoff chances. But I think that'll be good because I think it'll hopefully give me a chance to explain myself a little bit better by the time we get to proper division previews. Whereas this is just like a good opportunity for some some fan bases to maybe yell at me about why I don't think their team's going to make the playoffs.

4:38Derrik Klassen: I would have never guessed that this was a big enough deal to be a topic, but it honestly is. And shout out to Beller for this stat while we were game planning shows, because every year when I look at this stuff, like when you're picking a playoff field, when you're trying to figure out what you think is going to happen, I will often think to myself, I really like that team. But is it really realistic to think three teams are going to make the playoffs from the same division? And it turns out it's very realistic because every year since we expanded the playoffs to seven teams, it has happened going all the way back to 2020.

5:15Derrik Klassen: We have had at least one division represented three times in the playoffs every year. And then famously last year, we did it twice. The AFC West and the NFC North both sent three teams to the playoffs. So as far fetched as it sounded to me, it's actually kind of the norm, which is wild to think about.

5:33Dave Helman: I think it is funny to think about, because, yeah, every time you're trying to do the exercise, you're just like, that feels wrong. Surely if the division is this good, they all have to beat up on each other enough that one of them is going to get pushed out of the playoff race. But then, yeah, Beller, you know, he looks it up and it's like actually every year this happens, if not twice in the case of last year. So I think this is like a I think this time of year, it's very easy to do like, oh, well, there's going to be four new playoff teams. And that that certainly is probably going to happen.

6:01Dave Helman: But I think this is like a more fun framing of like, OK, how does the playoff race actually end up shaking out?

6:07Derrik Klassen: So what we're going to do is handicap the divisions from eight to one. We're going to start with, I guess, what you would say, what we view as the weakest division, the division that we think is least likely to have three playoff teams. And we're just going to work our way up from there. Derek and I have no idea how each other ranked these things. So I'm guessing we're going to agree on a few things, but there's plenty of potential for variance here as we get into it. But if we're going to start at eight, I bet you we're going to agree on this or I'll at least I'll throw it out there to get us going.

6:42Derrik Klassen: But if I'm looking at this, we think the NFC South is the least likely to have three playoff teams, correct? With a bullet.

6:52Dave Helman: Like it's not even really close to me. To me, like the Bucks will, you know, they'll probably win the division again. I still think that they're the best team. The Falcons, you can get me there on a playoff team. Like if Michael Penix is the player that they think he is, if the offensive line was some of the changes that they're going to have with Dolman out. And I know Ryan Newsle played a lot last year, so maybe that doesn't matter that much. Maybe the offense plays well. Maybe one of their pass rushers finally does something for the first time in my lifetime. You could get me there. I'm them beat.

7:20Dave Helman: I mean, they were almost a playoff team last year with Kirk Cousins, like hobbled for half of the season.

7:24Derrik Klassen: It's the story of the Falcons last like three years.

7:29Dave Helman: Yes, I the thing is, I look at the Saints and I look at even the Panthers. I think there's no shot that those are playoff team. The Saints for sure are no shot. The Panthers, there's at least a world where if 10 dominoes fall together, I could see them being a playoff team. But I think I'm a little bit lower on the quarterback than than some other people. I still have some question marks about the explosiveness of the offense and then the defense. Even with all the improvements, they still have like five tiers to go before they go from what they were last year to competent, which is even with all the additions is a lot of ground to cover.

8:02Derrik Klassen: the funny thing about the NFC South is just that the division caught a few breaks this year in general like if you look at it and I know it's not the end-all be-all we can't fully project a strength of schedule ahead of time but the metrics that chart those things say that the NFC South drew a pretty favorable slate in 2025 the Saints Falcons and Panthers are all in the bottom 10 of preseason strength of schedule. So statistically, was that just because they play each other? I mean, that's definitely part of it. But hey, you get six games against what most people view as the weakest division in football.

8:41Derrik Klassen: That is a leg up. But on top of that, you get to play the AFC East, which obviously the Buffalo Bills are a fantastic team, but that's three games against teams that are maybe not world beaters or at least teams that you feel like you have a good chance against. But you kind of you took my point there a little bit because the fun thing about the NFL is that when you are in the middle of the pack, beauty is just in the eye of the beholder. And I looked at the Panthers schedule specifically and you look at it and you're like, look, man, this these guys get to play Jacksonville. They get to play New England.

9:16Derrik Klassen: They get two games against the Saints. Like I'm getting excited building a case for why this could be a surprising playoff team. And then you stop and think about it And you're like, yeah, all those teams view Carolina as a good team on their schedule, too. They're like, oh, we get to play Carolina this year. That's great. So how you want to break this down is really just up to how you feel about a team. I like Carolina to be a better team this year. You could talk me into the Falcons finally winning the division. But the purpose of this is three playoff teams. And that's that's where I get sideways.

9:50Derrik Klassen: Like if you want to convince me one of these teams has a great year, that's cool. all three at the same time it just feels borderline impossible and even that it's like you're having

9:59Dave Helman: to play range of outcomes right whereas like some of the teams i think we're going to talk about it's like well the range of outcomes is maybe they only win seven games but you can see their ceiling being like 12 wins i can't envision 12 wins for the falcons or the panthers so like you're the very tippy top ceiling to me is like 10 wins and so if everything needs to go right for them to even get to 10, which is probably barely scraping into the wild card. It's just hard for me to feel good about a lot of these teams.

10:28Derrik Klassen: I had a feeling we would agree about that. Let's see if we can keep it going. Who's your seventh team, your seventh most likely to have three playoff teams? Well,

10:38Dave Helman: you already brought them up. The AFC East, I think to me is number seven.

10:42Derrik Klassen: And we disagree already.

10:45Dave Helman: I love it. Oh, OK. So my my reasoning for this is the division is is locked up. Like, I think to me, to get some of these divisions that I had a little bit higher that potentially could have three playoff teams, there was a little bit more mystique about who could win the division, because it implies that there's a little bit more competition at the top. To me, it's like the Bills are going to win the AFC East. They're probably going to win 12 games and there's nothing after that. I really don't trust this Dolphins team. I still have a lot of questions about them, especially in the secondary. The Patriots, I understand their schedule is very easy.

11:18Dave Helman: And I love Drake May. The defense might be decent. They would still have to outplay their over under by like a decent amount to be a playoff team. And then the Jets are kind of what I'm talking about with like the Panthers, where it's like, I think they could be a better team than they were last year. But the ceiling to me is still like nine, ten wins. And so if everything needs to go right for them to get there, that just doesn't feel like the team I want to bet on.

11:42Derrik Klassen: I actually have the AFC East all the way up at fifth in my personal ranking. What? Yes. Whoa. Okay. Let's talk about this because, again, we're not trying to identify Super Bowl contenders, right? Like, all we're talking about is finding three playoff teams. And, yeah, the Buffalo Bills run the AFC East until further notice. I would be shocked if something else happened this year. but if all we're talking about is getting teams to the playoffs, I think things set up better for this division than you might guess. Let's, let's get the obvious thing out of the way. This hinges entirely on the Patriots revamp being great from the get-go, right?

12:27Derrik Klassen: Like Drake may has got to be good. Will Campbell's got to be good. So like these rookie draft picks have to hit the free agents on defense have to be good players. But if they are. The Patriots have the second easiest strength of schedule. And again, like I know you can roll your eyes at that, but they get games against the NFC South, right? Like you get four games against opponents like that and you get to play the benefits of a bad schedule from finishing low in your division the year before. If this stuff hits, it makes sense why the Patriots have an over under of eight and a half. I know that annoys you and me because it's too high to entice us, but that's probably why it is that high, because they have a very favorable draw if they're good.

13:13Derrik Klassen: Obviously, you got to play Buffalo twice. But outside of that, they have a December road trip to Baltimore in at the late into the late back half of the season. That's their only opponent that you would describe as like a true NFL heavyweight outside of their division rival. So if that hits 910 wins for the Patriots, I think is on the table. And then I don't love the Dolphins as a team that we need to take super seriously. But you go eight and nine with a banged up to and barely missed the playoffs last year and you run it back with a very similar team. They're 25 and 16 with Mike McDaniel when two is healthy.

13:52Derrik Klassen: So do I think the Dolphins can be a wildcard team that loses on the road again? I absolutely think that. And one more thing I'll throw your way, Derek. There's at least potential that you have a punching bag in the New York Jets to make life easier on everybody else. Like if this Jets season goes poorly, how much does it help the Patriots and the Dolphins if they can sweep the Jets? That's that that puts a lot of hay in the barn right there. So I can see it, man. I'm I was pretty excited about this take when I came upon it.

14:24Dave Helman: I I think it's funny that I think I'm actually probably higher on the Jets, but just lower on the other two teams. And the Patriots one is tough because I actually really like the direction that they're headed. Obviously, I think the quarterback is fantastic. I think Rabel is going to help them. I think the defense can be better and they have the easy schedule. I just. I still have a lot of questions about Will Campbell. Kyle Williams is not playing with the first team at receiver. I just I have some other questions about the offensive line still like Morgan Moses is very old there's a chance that I think you know maybe this just is kind of the last year for him type of deal and even for as much as I think the defense could get better it's a matter of like okay do they go from 30th to 22nd or do they actually become good again I don't know so I don't know the Patriots I think I struggle to see it a little bit and then the Dolphins I think in terms of just looking at the roster and painting the picture of like, oh, well, if two is healthy, they probably would have been a playoff team last year, which I think is true.

15:23Dave Helman: They're just the team where I it just. They're just there's just something stinky about them like that. I can't describe it. I'm sure by the time we get to proper division previews, I'll have like a better reasoning for why I feel that way. But I just they're a team that I don't want to be betting on.

15:37Derrik Klassen: I think the Dolphins are just there. They're just they're just there. And I think that there's like a there's a predisposition to just overlook teams that are just there because they're not. There's nothing I know what they are. Exactly. I know what they are. But I guess what they are is a team that's capable of getting to the playoffs. That's that's all I'm saying. That's my only point.

16:00Dave Helman: So I get it because I'm probably overlooking like I'm bored with them, so I don't want to put them in. But like if they're if they're what they've been for the past two, three years, it's like, well, that's probably a 10 win wildcard team. But I just I'm over.

16:13Derrik Klassen: We are we are bored with the Dolphins because they look about the same or maybe a little bit worse from a team that has been kind of disappointing. But they're a playoff caliber team. They have been for three years in a row. I agree with you. If two is healthier last year, they make it again. We're not trying to put them in the Super Bowl, but they could be there on wildcard weekend. Yeah, this it hinges on the Patriots, which that was a very optimistic view that I put forward just now. But it's at least not out of the realm of possibility. All right. So we disagree there. Let's let's just keep going.

16:46Derrik Klassen: The AFC East was your seven. Who's your six?

16:50Dave Helman: Yeah, you had them all up at five. So I'm really interested to see how this shakes out at six. I had the AFC South. Is that who you had at seven? I have the AFC South at seven. Yes. OK, OK. That's understandable. This was a team where I think the only reason I had the South above the East is that because in this division, because I think the division winner is a little bit more up for grabs, that that makes me believe that more teams could be in the mix for it. So I just that was really the only reason.

17:20Derrik Klassen: Yeah, it's it's funny because I do think I think the entire division could be in the mix to win the AFC South. And maybe this is just the bias of previous years coming into play. But the AFC South champion has been locked into the four seed for what feels like forever at this point. So maybe it's just hard for me to imagine this is the year that they rise above that, especially because on the schedule, you get the AFC West and the NFC West. So those are two of the two of the deeper divisions in the NFL. So not a lot of breaks in the schedule other than your own division. this is it's a lot like the nfc south to me where i could make a case for any of these teams winning the division but all like having three of them all win enough games to make it at the same time that's where you kind of lose me okay you know what i think you've actually sold me i would

18:11Dave Helman: probably put the south at at seven now because i do think i was probably over indexing a little bit on like oh well the division's up for grabs that means a lot of teams are going to be competitive but if the division being up for grabs only means the best team wins nine or ten games Well, yeah, if the Texans go 10 and seven, which they've done twice in a row now. Right.

18:31Derrik Klassen: And the second and third place teams are nine and eight, eight and nine. That's not getting us where we want to be. That's my only thought. Having said that, can we find a case for for maybe more than that? I mean, I've said a few times I'm a little down on Houston this year, but. I don't think it would be hard to convince me that this team wins 11 plus games and maybe somebody else slots in. Like, am I selling them short? Is there somebody here who could accomplish more than that?

18:59Dave Helman: I really don't think so. Like, I think probably the best case scenario for any of these teams is probably like a sort of lucky 11 win season. Like the Texans, I expect their defense to be great again. But the offense. I'm scared to say it, but like it shouldn't be worse. And so hopefully if they can just be what they were last year at minimum and then the defense is great again, they could they could win the division win 10 games I do expect Jacksonville to be better but again they're going from like a five win six win team to you know they would have to win 11 games in this scenario that you're kind of asking to cover a lot of ground there especially on the defense where they were really really bad last year the Colts I just God knows I don't even really want to have that discussion right now and then the Titans like I'm really optimistic about where the Titans are going.

19:49Dave Helman: But hey, man, you picked first overall last year. You would really need a lot of things to go right for them to win the division. And listen, I'm optimistic, but come on now.

19:59Derrik Klassen: Have you seen the secondary?

20:00Dave Helman: I don't know, man. Like, I like this team, but they've got some some weaknesses, I would say.

20:06Derrik Klassen: There are on paper so many weaknesses. That's why you pick first in the draft. But nobody doing shows like this was talking about Washington as a threat to do anything last year. And in this very division, the Houston Texans were just a feel good story. Oh, the Texans had a good draft and finally look like a legitimate franchise. Good for them. But they're not actually good at football. And now they're the two time division winner. So crazier things have happened. That's pardon the pun. But the Titans are the true wild card here, where if if Cam Ward is a beast, then all bets are off. And I don't know if they go 12 and five and reach the AFC title game the way that the commanders did last year.

20:48Derrik Klassen: But the ceiling is hard to gauge if your quarterback is a is a dude, right? This could be a double digit win team if he's that special. And so I think you at least have to talk about it, even if you don't really believe it.

21:02Dave Helman: I think that's fair. I guess with the division at whole, it's like I don't think the ceiling is that high for any of these teams. and then also for like three of them to get into the playoffs we would have to knock down like eight dominoes for all of them together which just feels like it's we're asking for for too

21:21Derrik Klassen: much out of these teams it is funny because the afc south has so much quarterback name power right like we love cj stroud he's accomplished some really remarkable things trevor lawrence with all of the hoopla that surrounds him and all the hype coming into the league and the arguments about him. Anthony Richardson, we know he hasn't lived up to it, but a top five pick. And now Cam Ward, number one overall, the the wattage is there like the the the star power is there. We're just waiting on somebody other than Stroud really to take that next step.

21:58Dave Helman: That's a good point. If someone does hit their stride, regardless of who it is, maybe maybe they can kick into the next year. But again, it's a lot of how long have we been saying for the AFC South? It's like one of these teams. Oh, they'll figure it out. I mean, I feel like we've been doing this since like Andrew Luck days.

22:14Derrik Klassen: I don't expect this to be the year that it happens, but crazier things have happened. So we'll see. All right. We got plenty more divisions to get to. First, we're going to take a quick break. But before we do that, we do have exciting news to share. The Sports Gossip show has joined the athletic podcast network, whether you're a diehard fan who has the standings of multiple leagues memorized or someone who really does think that Taylor Swift put Travis Kelsey on the map, join Madeline Hill and Charlotte Wilder as they break down sports with one eye on the game and one eye on the personal life section of athletes Wikipedia pages every Tuesday and Thursday on YouTube, Apple, Spotify, wherever you get your podcasts.

22:52Derrik Klassen: We'll be right back. You know that hoodie you can't stop reaching for the one that feels like a second skin, soft, warm, and somehow makes you feel a little more grounded? I found it. And trust me, it's not what you expect. It's called Paka, spelled P-A-K-A. And if you're tired of hoodies that stretch out, pill, or feel heavy, this is the upgrade you've been waiting for. Paka makes outdoor and lifestyle apparel from Alpaka Fiber, one of the world's most sustainable natural fibers. Their best-selling hoodie is softer than cashmere, warmer than wool, and breathable. This hoodie is built for real life, thermoregulating, odor-resistant, durable and made to last each one is made start to finish in peru and features an inca id that's hand woven by artisans honoring generations of knowledge and traditions and connecting you closer to where your clothing comes from over 250 000 people have already picked up the pack of hoodie what makes it even better it really is like a second skin so comfortable so warm exactly what you're looking for in a hoodie you know it's funny as a sports podcaster i am able to have a relatively casual wardrobe.

23:53Derrik Klassen: When I go into the office a few days ago, my wife and I were both getting ready to go for work and she looked me up and down and was like, that's for the office? And I'm like, yeah, it is. And guess what? It was the pack of hoodie that I was wearing. You can wear it to work, can wear it to a baseball game, a football game, can wear it to your kids' games. You can wear it outside, inside, whatever the case might be. Pack of hoodie is there for you. If you've been thinking about leveling up your hoodie game, this is your sign to do it. To grab your pack of hoodie, go to www.pakaapparel.com. That's www.pakaapparel.com.

24:28Derrik Klassen: Hey everyone, Michael Beller for Behind the Scenes at the Athletic Football Show here. I run TAF's and our college football show, The Audible at the Athletic. And so that means I've got a lot of tasks on my plate. Most of those are fun to do. There's a reason why I'm in the business. But if I'm being honest, there's probably one or two that I wouldn't mind being able to shift off of my plate. And I think that's probably true for all of us. That one task, that other task that, you know, if someone else took care of it, you wouldn't really mind. If payroll is that one for you, Gusto is here to help.

24:56Derrik Klassen: Gusto is online payroll and benefits software built for small businesses. It's all-in-one, remote-friendly, and incredibly easy to use. So you can pay, hire, onboard, and support your team from anywhere. Automatic payroll tax filing, simple direct deposits, health benefits, commuter benefits, workers' comp, 401k, you name it. Gusto makes it simple and has options for nearly every budget. Unlimited payroll runs for one monthly price, no hidden fees, no surprises. Save time with built-in automated tools, offer letters, onboarding docs, direct deposit, and more. Get direct access to certified HR experts to help support you through any tough HR transition.

25:30Derrik Klassen: It's quick and simple to switch to Gusto. Just transfer your existing data to get up and running fast. Plus, don't pay a cent until you run your first payroll. Try Gusto today at gusto.com slash athletic football and get three months free when you run your first payroll. That's three months of free payroll at gusto.com slash athletic football. One more time, gusto.com slash athletic football.

25:58Derrik Klassen: Golf has come a long way in the past century. Today, the R &A and Accenture are partnering to celebrate its heritage while shaping what's to come. Together, the R &A and Accenture are reinventing the future of golf. Using data and technology to enhance your experiences of the game and drive the growth of golf worldwide. All this, and there's more to come. Accenture, the official business and technology consulting partner of the R &A. Learn more at Accenture.com slash R &A.

26:36Derrik Klassen: Okay, so just to recap, Derek, you and I agreed the NFC South, the least likely of the eight NFL divisions to have three playoff teams. I think I just swayed you to move the AFC South to seven.

26:50Dave Helman: I think you did. I still feel weird about putting the AFC East any higher because I don't love a lot of those teams. It was more about now. I understand. I probably overestimated the potential of getting three AFC South teams in.

27:03Derrik Klassen: OK, so you did have the AFC East at seven. We'll say they're your six now. So I'll give you my six. And I think it's a little controversial. I think it's I think it's a little weird based on the quality of some of these teams. But I've got the NFC East at six.

27:20Dave Helman: OK, I had them a little bit higher, so I would like to hear you explain yourself here.

27:25Derrik Klassen: I think this is this is just a case where I expect the division to cannibalize itself, really. Like, I think these are evenly matched teams that have good rosters. Yes, I think the Eagles are the cream of the crop, but a fully healthy Dak Prescott on the Cowboys has historically always been good in the division. And then you've obviously got Jaden Daniels. I mean, I do feel a little bit silly because there are there are three all pro caliber quarterbacks in this division. And then you can't write off the fact that Russell Wilson just led a team to the playoffs last year. Even if we don't think I will be doing that, I will be writing that off.

28:05Derrik Klassen: You're discounting it completely just right off the bat?

28:08Dave Helman: 100%. That team was fake. I'm not doing that.

28:12Derrik Klassen: See, I think this is going to be our point of contention for this whole show, though. You can be fake and still be a pain in the ass and still occasionally get all the way to the playoffs. And I'm not saying that I think the Giants have a real shot to do it, but they can absolutely fuck somebody else's season up.

28:29Dave Helman: I guess that's true. in this division like if some of the especially if their pass rush is what we want it to be like maybe they could just play some of these disgusting 16 to 13 type of wins but like that's my problem is like this Giants offense added basically nothing except for switching out their quarterback for Russell Wilson I'm sorry man that's not moving me like I don't even think Dan I don't even think that highly of Daniel Jones or whoever else they were playing last year but that doesn't do a whole lot for me.

28:57Derrik Klassen: I think the Cowboys are the fly in the ointment in this conversation because they're I think they're a high variable team. If Dak is back and healthy, we have a lot of history that suggests that they're capable of winning 10 plus games and getting into the playoffs. But man, the roster just doesn't excite me as much as I want it to. Right. Like Dak and the receivers is really fun. The offensive line is supposed to be better this year. But as of right now that's more projection than fact especially with Tyler Guyton already missing time in training camp Micah Parsons is holding out which I mean I expect that to get worked out but it just kind of highlights where things are with the defensive front I don't know that the run defense is any better than it was last year and I don't know why we don't talk more about the secondary being the mess that it is like I don't have expectations for Trayvon Diggs this year or the rookie they drafted Savone Revell.

29:56Derrik Klassen: Like, I don't think it's fair to expect much from a guy coming off of a major leg injury. I just look at the rest of that secondary and I'm like, this feels like it could be a lot better. So if this Cowboys team does get to the playoffs, it really is going to take like a super say and effort from Dak in the passing game because the rest of it just doesn't get me that excited.

30:18Dave Helman: They're one of those teams and there's a handful of these every year where it's like their path to the playoffs is winning a lot of 32 to 28 type of games. And we've seen that that can do that, right? Like that can at his best play, like almost MVP ish level ball and really put up like 30 points a game. It's just, you don't really want to be living that way. And I think like you said, with, they have the combination of I'm not sure the run defense is any better. And also the secondary is a bunch of guys who are banged up, might not play this year. And their only other addition really was signing like, or bring in Kyer Elam, who the Bills have decided they wanted nothing of and then drafted another cornerback to replace him.

30:57Dave Helman: So it's just that I even though I do think that there's a pretty good ceiling case for the Cowboys, I can see why they're a little bit, you know, you could easily see them also falling out.

31:06Derrik Klassen: The other thing that I think matters, and I'm going to harp on schedule a lot in this show, because I think if you're trying to project something like this, who you play is important and the NFC East draws the AFC West and the NFC North this year. That's brutal. Yeah, I mean, the Cowboys play the Chiefs on Thanksgiving. You got to play a team that sent three. You play both of the divisions that sent three teams to the playoffs last year. And I know it's not a guarantee that it'll be as tough this year, but I promise you, you're going to have three to four really, really tough games in those divisions.

31:43Derrik Klassen: and that could be tough to overcome, especially with Washington now being a team you have to reckon with. I don't know. It sounds tough.

31:51Dave Helman: I guess that's why this division is tricky, is that I think the ceiling case for all three of those teams, though, is like could be super like the Cowboys, the Eagles and Washington could all win 12 games. And I don't think we would be that shocked by it. Right. But I do think Eagles are coming off of what's going to be a Super Bowl hangover Washington I think was a little bit fake last year and I think I have a lot of questions about how well the defense is going to hold up and then the Cowboys it's like okay we can be excited about healthy Dak but outside of him and CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens I don't know if there's that much to be surefire excited about with this team especially with Micah Parsons currently holding out so you're making me waffle a little bit but I still think I'm okay with having them over the other division that I have.

32:36Dave Helman: Where where did you have the NFC strength? I had them fourth. So I only have one division of difference here between between them.

32:44Derrik Klassen: It's weird because I won't be surprised if the NFC East has two playoff teams. It seems like they've had two playoff teams every year for the last like five years, you know, like the Cowboys and Eagles made it two or three years in a row. Obviously, the Eagles and commanders last year, but I can't get there with three. I think there's and we haven't really talked about the commanders. If the commanders repeat last year, I think it'll be purely because Jaden Daniels is that special. Like I we've we've talked about it before where I worry about the roster. I worry about the age of some of these guys and how well they can hold up over another season.

33:21Derrik Klassen: Terry McLaurin is holding out again, not suggesting that he's going to miss games, but stuff like that matters, especially on a thin group of pass catchers to begin with. Like I would like Terry McLaurin to be working with Jaden Daniels if I'm to believe that the commander's offense is going to take another step.

33:39Dave Helman: And that's kind of the tricky part with Washington is like there's obvious reasons to be excited, right? Like Cliff looked like a more put together play caller than ever. Jaden Daniels is probably a special quarterback. But also, I don't think they could possibly do what they did on third downs and fourth downs the way that they did last year. And that's not even to say that I don't think like what they were doing was fake. It's just they were hitting on fourth downs at a rate that just doesn't happen. you get lucky at the end of the Bears game. You get a little bit lucky at the end of the Bengals game.

34:05Dave Helman: Like if all of that comes back to earth, you're probably more realistically a nine win team, which might not be enough to get you in. I'll say this for any NFC fans that hate this take.

34:16Derrik Klassen: If three teams do make it from the division, it'll probably look a lot like the NFC North last year, where it's just like, holy shit, like who can beat these guys? Is anybody outside of the division capable of winning a game because again with the with the opponents that they have to go through it will be wildly impressive if all three of these teams get to 10 11 or potentially

34:40Dave Helman: more wins all right who was your number five Derek my number five is the AFC North I I struggle with a lot of these teams I bet the Ravens the Ravens are winning the division they're gonna win 14

34:55Derrik Klassen: games the the way we are viewing this is just phenomenal because I couldn't I could barely

35:02Dave Helman: disagree more but go on I so the Ravens are in I think a lot of this stems from I I really do not conceive of the Bengals as like a playoff lock the way that a lot of other people do I think Joe Burrow is great I think they have maybe the best one to punch a receiver in the entire league I just I think that's a really hard way to live year over year and I still believe even with Trey Hendrickson back, even with Shamar Stewart finally getting into camp, I still think that there's a chance that this is like a bottom five defense. And I just again to have to live that way to me scares me. And we saw that last year you can still win nine games that way.

35:38Dave Helman: And if they don't blow a stupid Patriots game early in the season, if they don't have the Washington game, I understand they're in the playoffs. But to me, like having to bump along that that border where you're barely a playoff team scares me. When again, I don't think the team is better this year than it was last year the Steelers I don't know man I I love Mike Tomlin I get it I love the

36:00Derrik Klassen: Jalen Ramsey signing this is we're we are putting the Mike Tomlin doesn't have losing seasons theory to the test this year like we really are and this you really have to take a stand you can't waffle on what you think of the Steelers we're getting to I think for so many other iterations of the

36:18Dave Helman: Mike Tomlin thing it was like are the bad vibes and bad quarterback play really going to overpower the Mike Tomlin magic and in previous years even with like Kenny Pickett I was like nah that'll be fine I just dislike everything about the Aaron Rodgers signing and fit and all that I just I'm very scared about how that's going to work so to me there's a decent chance that the Steelers only win like seven eight games and they don't get in and then the Browns I'm just I'm not even doing in that we don't have to talk about that I have the AFC North all the way up at number two Derek

36:53Derrik Klassen: I think they are I think they are the second most likely division to pull this off and let me tell you like a schedule thing not even necessarily no because like the AFC North plays the NFC North this year like there there are some tough games on those schedules but I'll just walk you through it. And this is the methodology that I came to while I was doing this. I think the deeper your division, the worse off I think you are, because ideally you want somebody to beat up on. Like I said earlier, it matters. You need a bozo. You need somebody that to go. Oh, and six or one in five. And there's precedent for this, by the way.

37:34Derrik Klassen: I was looking back at this 2024, just this past Last year, the Las Vegas Raiders went 0-6 in their division. When the Chargers and Broncos are getting into the playoffs as wild cards, that matters so much. 2023, the Bengals went 1-5. Large part of that was because Joe Burrow got hurt, but you have an easier game on the schedule. That does a lot of heavy lifting. The Bengals also went 1-5 in 2020. When three teams can count on two wins from a division rival, I think that matters so much. And then you look at the three teams that aren't Cleveland. The Ravens are going to the playoffs, right? Don't need to say a whole lot about that.

38:14Derrik Klassen: Like as long as they're reasonably healthy, they're a playoff team. The Steelers. I just I trust the voodoo at this point. I trust the Mike Tomlin blood magic. They have a top 10 caliber defense one more time. They not trying to sell anybody that Aaron Rodgers is worth getting excited about. But if 2024 Russell Wilson can get the Steelers into the playoffs, I don't think the drop off is that severe to Aaron Rodgers. And again, this is an organization that hasn't had a losing season since oh three. Mike Tomlin's never had a losing record. I know that that is not a cold, hard statistic that I can point to, but it carries weight with me.

38:56Derrik Klassen: And I understand your concerns about the Bengals. But let me ask you this. We'll call it the Bengals Steelers paradox. Would you rather have a fantastic defense that you trust to keep you in every game, but a lackluster quarterback? Or would you rather have an MVP caliber quarterback every week who doesn't have the defense to help him out, but is going to give you a chance to score 38 plus points every single week?

39:21Dave Helman: I think in this particular case, I'd much rather be the Bengals. But that's also because like I going into the season feel really good about like, yeah, the Bengals will probably be a top five offense, assuming everybody is like relatively healthy with the Steelers defense I don't feel that way where I'm like I feel confident they are like a top five unit like to me I think a little bit it's to me I think if you ask me that would I rather be the Bengals or the Texans I think gets a little bit more and obviously it's not the same division so it gets pretty tough but like the Texans I feel like yeah they're going to be an elite defense and that to me I think you get to relatively the same quality of team and that's not

39:58Derrik Klassen: fair though because stroud is a really really good quarterback even if you're down on him after last year i don't think anybody in this day and age would take aaron rogers over stroud no absolutely

40:11Dave Helman: not so i guess that's tough it's hard to find like who is the elite defense team that has just like absolutely nothing at quarterback that is like pretty similar to the steelers but again i think it's if you told me the steelers would be a top five defense for sure i think i would probably be like probably feel awash on how I feel about these two teams. I just don't know for sure if I feel the Steelers defense is that good.

40:33Derrik Klassen: Is the team you're looking for the Denver Broncos? Like, would you rather be Denver or Cincinnati? I mean, that's a perfect that's perfect because they were the teams fighting for that last spot anyway.

40:46Dave Helman: I mean, if the Broncos defense really is who I think it is, I I might rather want to be them. Truthfully. I don't even find fault with what you're saying. I get why we do the I want to have the best quarterback I want to have the best passing offense all the time but like I think it's a little bit more of a flimsy thing than we think

41:06Derrik Klassen: that it is no I mean I think you're totally right and the Bengals prove that I mean yeah exactly

41:12Dave Helman: how much better Saints teams you're a Saints fan you get it like you're the seven and nine

41:17Derrik Klassen: Drew Brees Saints teams man you didn't have to bring that up but you did you're you're not wrong But still, like we're just talking about on a week to week basis going into a game. I'll take my chances with Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense. And I know that I will be disappointed more often than I want. But it's just a larger pathway to success than hoping your defense is going to play great. It's going to get you a couple short fields over the course of the afternoon. Your quarterback's not going to play like a bonehead. Like, it's just I'd rather live in that world, even knowing that the Bengals are going to frustrate me.

41:54Derrik Klassen: It's just easier. It's just easier to live that way.

41:57Dave Helman: I think having the great quarterback is like it's like wearing your favorite hoodie. It feels better, but I don't think that necessarily makes the quality of the team any better than like a team like the Broncos. I think it just feels nicer. It feels a little safer. I think that's completely fair. But yeah, even with your concerns, if you're having to pick playoff teams here, you would rather have the thing that feels a little bit nicer.

42:19Derrik Klassen: And once again, do I believe in the Bengals as a team that can win four playoff games in a row? Not not really. But I do think that they could go 10 and seven instead of nine and eight and get into the playoffs.

42:32Dave Helman: I do think that I want to be clear. I also think the Bengals can make the playoffs. And like if we were to pick playoff teams right now, I probably would still put them in. It's just I think because of the quarterback and the receivers, there's a tendency for people to be like, oh, they're a lock this year. you've gone nine and eight two years in a row man and I know some of that was Joe Burrow injuries but like this team is not I think they are not the automatic bid that we conceive of them to be

42:57Derrik Klassen: I'll readily admit some of it is probably my LSU diploma but I will I will run full-fledged at that football every time just like Charlie Brown like I'm ready we I should have done that on my ready to be hurt again I'm ready to be hurt by the Cincinnati that would have been a good one All right. I wasn't expecting to use my number two team that quickly, but we'll keep it rolling. All right. So that was your number five. The AFC North was your number five. So I'll jump up to my number four. I'll just I I'm just going to keep being the controversial guy because I know that they were the most competitive division in football last year.

43:35Derrik Klassen: But I've got the AFC North all the way down at number four. Do you think I am insane?

43:40Dave Helman: um a little bit because i have them high i have i have them a couple spots higher than that i don't have them first but i i would like to hear your reasoning for why they're this low especially

43:49Derrik Klassen: under the afc north i think to me is very interesting i just think with the exception of probably the packers and i know you know people think we're packers apologists now i'm just we're I'm just talking. I'm totally fair. Yeah. Well, you, you are going to wear that crown. I have a feeling and that's great. But so, so much, there's so much that we don't know about this division, right? Like it's, it's, it's easy to just say like, oh, they went 40 and 11 combined three, three teams went 40 and 11 combined last year. They sent three teams to the playoff. Of course, they're all going to be good, but the division winners, the lions, they lose both of their coordinators.

44:31Derrik Klassen: coordinators, they're shuffling their offensive line. There are, you know, Aiden Hutchinson coming back from injury, not to say that they're going to be a bad team, but assuming 15 wins again is insanely premature, even assuming like I would, I would put the line somewhere around like 11, if it were me. Right. And so I think that just lowers your, the, the ceiling of the division right away. And then the team that finished second and won 14 games, one of the most loaded rosters in the NFL, but I can't bang the drum for the Vikings relentlessly the way I want to until I see JJ McCarthy play football.

45:08Derrik Klassen: I just, I can't do it. We've talked about this before. Like even if I think they're a playoff team, I would imagine it's more of like a nine and eight, 10 and seven type of playoff team than anything. And that's assuming JJ is good. And then the bears are the bears, you know, like this, this could be the year, this could be the year, but am I going to hang my hat on that in the preseason? No, I've been hurt before. I don't want to do that again. So I'm just there's enough here giving me doubts about everybody. And that's before you factor in the schedule. The AFC North is on this schedule. The NFC East is on this schedule.

45:44Derrik Klassen: These are divisions that we very much expect to have good playoff caliber teams. And then your one cross conference game. Remember, we do you know, we do a cross conference game outside of that division. The NFC North has to play the AFC West this year. So, for instance, the Detroit Lions currently have the fifth best Super Bowl odds in the preseason. They are playing four of the other top six Super Bowl favorites. They're playing Baltimore. They're playing Philly. They're playing Kansas City. They're playing Washington. Now throw your division schedule on top of that. Like, I think that has prime potential to bring the win totals in this division down.

46:24Derrik Klassen: So it's not that I don't like these teams. I just think doing what they did last year is very much lightning in a bottle. I just don't think it's realistic to expect it to happen again.

46:36Dave Helman: I think that that is probably fair, especially in the case of Minnesota. Right. Like I we did our half take or half fake take show. I was like, maybe they could finish fourth in the division. Despite me saying that, I still think that they're probably a better team than the Steelers. And then I think to me, the Bears are a much better team than the Browns. And so I actually think that that's been interesting in the way that we've conceived of this. I think in a lot of ways you're looking a little bit more at schedule and within the division looking for an idiot that they can all beat up on.

47:04Derrik Klassen: And yes, I have a very strict methodology that I'm trying to follow here.

47:09Dave Helman: But I get it like it makes it when you really frame it that way of like it helps when three of the teams can get two automatic wins. If we're trying to just find three teams that can get into the playoffs in each division, it totally makes sense. I think for me, it's just the way I approached it was mostly like, how do I feel about these teams in the in a vacuum? And what is the percentage chance that I think that they can win basically 10 games? And for a team like the NFC North, I kind of think there's a decent chance that all of them can do it. And so obviously they'd end up beating up on each other.

47:37Dave Helman: But I feel good enough that all of them could be playoff teams where like with the AFC North, there's almost no shot that the Browns get in. And so if one thing goes wrong for the other team, like the Steelers or the Bengals, well, then they're already done.

47:51Derrik Klassen: Very on brand. You're trying to do this very honorably, and I'm trying to do it so dishonorably. I'm like, by hook or by crook, like, where can I steal two wins? Who are we playing that we can beat up on? Like, I'm just trying to get over the finish line here.

48:07Dave Helman: I like it, though. I think it's it's it's more practical, honestly, like thinking about, like, what are the realities of these teams and schedules? where I think I almost didn't really look at the schedules for these teams. I'm going a little bit off of vibes about like, just how good do I think this team is? That's it.

48:21Derrik Klassen: I mean, I'll readily admit, though, you're going to wind up looking like an idiot somewhere when you're trying to balance the schedule. I mean, the San Francisco 49ers won six games and went one in five in their division last year, you know? So these are the things that you can't completely predict when you're looking at it in August. But that's why I think taking a volume approach makes sense. Like if you're playing the AFC North and the NFC East, can I guarantee that all my opinions about those teams are going to be right? No, but you're playing those eight games. Five of them are probably going to be really hard just going off the numbers like that would be my guess.

49:00Dave Helman: It's a lot better than getting to play the NFC South or the AFC East, stuff like that.

49:04Derrik Klassen: NFC South is what I was. That's what I was looking for every single time I was rating a division. I was like, all right, who gets to play those guys? All right, we got a couple more to get to after this break.

49:41Derrik Klassen: started Advanta.com.

50:11Derrik Klassen: life takes you. So shop now at liquidiv.com. Liquid IV hydration that goes wherever life takes you. This summer, JBL is on a mission to help you tune into what you love. Audiobooks, podcasts, and everything in between with JBL's live headphones. These headphones are perfect because of their high-res sound, making your fave stories and voices come alive with so much detail, exactly the way they were made to be heard. Plus, they have 80 hours of battery life, so you can binge without pressing pause all summer long. Find your pair at JBL.com.

50:51Derrik Klassen: All right, Derek, we've covered a lot of ground here. So catch me up. Read me your list of divisions as we've gotten to it so far.

50:58Dave Helman: Yeah, I've got at eight to NFC South, as we both do. You convinced me to put the AFC South at seven, although I started with them at six, in which case I have moved the AFC East up from seven to six. Five for me is the AFC North. Fourth for me is the NFC East. We have not talked about my number three team. And then at two, we just talked about the NFC North. That's where I have them.

51:21Derrik Klassen: So we each had a North at our two spot because I had the AFC North at two. I have the NFC North down at four. AFC East at fifth, NFC East at sixth. And then, yeah, we we agree on the two Souths after I swayed you. All right. So moment of truth. We don't know what each other has ranked third. Who is your number three team?

51:46Dave Helman: Yeah, it's it's it's funny. We have both of the Wests left for me. I'm putting the NFC West at third. And this to me, you know, kind of in the way that you talked about the NFC East, where this is a division that's going to cannibalize itself. That's how I feel about this division. except in this case the fourth team also might be decent like I have a lot of to me the fourth best team in the division is the Seattle Seahawks um but they there's a chance that they have the best defense in football and like even if the offense is marginally better which I think you have to sell yourself on a lot of things going right for that to be the case even for as bad as last year was um they could still be like a team that is consistently in the mix I mean they were in the mix until like the last two weeks of last season the Cardinals I think it's very easy to see a world where even if the offense is exactly what it was last year, a little bit up and down, but you're like a top 12 ish unit and then the defense takes any sort of a jump that probably can get them into the wild card.

52:42Dave Helman: I think we all think the Niners are going to be way healthier and way better than they were last year. And then if the Rams quarterback can stay upright, I think they're another team who's going to be like 10 plus wins. So this to me was a division where I can see the I can see how all of these teams would get into the playoffs. But to me, there's no obvious winner. So this to me feels like the one that beats up a little bit on itself and pushes one or two of those teams out.

53:08Derrik Klassen: I promise I am not being hypocritical when I say this, because you're right. This is a division that is prime to beat up on itself. But despite that, I have the NSC West ranked first. you did really I think it is the most likely division to pull this off if somebody does last year and yes it's a very deep division it does not have a bozo and I understand that that has been one of my guiding principles in this exercise but there is precedent here like if you go back and look at it the NFC West sent three teams to the playoffs in 2021 despite not having a bozo. The Seattle Seahawks in 2021 went three and three.

53:54Derrik Klassen: They won. They went three and three in the division. They went seven, 10 on the seven and 10 on the year. The division still produced three double digit win teams. Obviously, the L.A. Rams went on to win the Super Bowl that year, so it can be done. And the reason why I don't think it matters that this division is so deep is, again, the schedule is crazy favorable. Do you want to know who they play, Derek?

54:17Dave Helman: is I'm going to guess it's the NFC South if that's where we're going.

54:20Derrik Klassen: And the AFC South.

54:23Dave Helman: Oh, come on. No way.

54:25Derrik Klassen: Yes. There's a reason the 49ers have the easiest strength of schedule in the entire league. Think about how wild it is. We all know that the Niners have a good roster, but this is a team that went 6-11 last year, and their over-under in Vegas is 10-1⁄2. And I think a large part of it is because they shouldn't have to work that hard to win a bunch of games. The schedule is just not very hard.

54:49Dave Helman: The way that you're setting this up is kind of the way that we talked about the NFC North last year, where it's like they were. It was a bunch of like kind of good teams that played these schedules and just like kind of outplayed what they probably were. And if the if the NFC West is going to get that easy of a schedule, if the Rams can stay healthy and we all assume the Niners will be back to full strength again. The schedule argument is a really good one for all of these teams, honestly.

55:12Derrik Klassen: It would be laughable to assume that they're all just going to sweep these cross division games. Right. Like that never happens. But it's just it's favorable. It is much more favorable than some other draws that you could have. And the big part of it for me, I think three of these four teams could make a case that they're substantially better. And the 49ers should at least be able to hold steady as a team that was already good. Right. Like it was mainly injury that screwed them in 2024. So even if they didn't make appreciable gains, I think they should be a similar quality team. And then I think, hold on.

55:52Dave Helman: Yo, go ahead.

55:52Derrik Klassen: Are you are you implying that the Seahawks are a remarkably better team than they were last year? I knew you were going to say that. And I don't want to do a Gino thing here. I think the world of Gino, I'm not trying to suggest that Sam Darnold is better than Gino Smith, at least not yet. But I think at the very least, the drop off at quarterback won't be substantial. You can at least make the oh, God, he's already mad. Let me let me let me let me stray away from that before you come through the screen at me. I think the Seahawks defense could be that much better. And that's what makes me excited about Seattle.

56:31Derrik Klassen: I think Geno Smith is a better quarterback than Sam Darnold. I think Sam Darnold can stay out of the way and let this be a really good defense and they can do enough on offense. I do think Seattle could be a as good or better team. I mean, they went 10 and seven last year. They only like they missed the playoffs mainly because the NFC North was as insane as it was. Right. And if we don't expect that to happen every year, nine and eight or 10 and seven could get them into the postseason this year. Please don't kill me. I love Geno Smith.

57:03Dave Helman: I can accept that. I thought we were going to get more. I believe in the offense talk, which again, that to me is where I have to draw the line with the Seahawks. But if the if the angle is Sam Darnold can stay out of the way relatively and then the defense is just the best in the league that that world, I actually can see because the Seahawks were a little bit up and down last year on as a defense. but their best play was like the best defense in the league. And so if they can maintain that over the course of a season, I still have some questions, but I can at least live with that world.

57:37Derrik Klassen: I'll say this. When they signed Sam, I was so confused because I was like, you got worse at quarterback and the offense doesn't look appreciably better. Please don't try to sell me that 2025 Cooper Cup is worth really getting excited about. I didn't really get it. But by the time it was all said and done, I like some of the additions that they like. I like the additions that they made on defense. I think the defense has a lot of potential. The decision to draft Gray's able. I'm like, OK, well, at least you're trying to protect your quarterback a little bit better than you did last year. Is that going to solve all of their problems?

58:14Derrik Klassen: No, but I feel better about it than I did in March, at least. And if the offense is fine, then I think the defense could be good enough to make this a really frisky team.

58:26Dave Helman: OK, that's that's a good enough explanation that I don't feel like I have to jump through the screen.

58:31Derrik Klassen: And then similarly for Arizona, I mean, this team led the division with like six weeks to play and they just fell apart. But they've upped their defensive talent significantly. I wish they had done a little bit more on offense, but there's enough there. to make me think this could be a team with a winning record. And it's not as good as San Francisco, but Seattle's strength of schedule ranks 11th best in the or 11th worst in the league, 11th easiest and Arizona's at 13th. So those are two teams that were pretty good last year that have forgiving slates to work with. And we haven't even mentioned the Rams who won the division last year.

59:10Derrik Klassen: I think we all like the Rams assuming that they're healthy. So I feel good about this like I could see this being that type of division where even if they trade wins and losses in division play you still come out of it with with three teams that have won 10 plus games

59:25Dave Helman: I can see it I mean that's why again I didn't have them at one but I've got them high enough that they're I think to me this was like the tier right like one through three I think are to me like a tier break of like how likely I think this is all to happen okay so by process

59:42Derrik Klassen: of elimination that leaves us with one more division to go so it's your number one division

59:48Dave Helman: and my number three division let's talk about the AFC West uh let's so this is I mean Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs they're gonna win they're gonna find a way to win 14 games again we can put that out of sight out of mind the Chargers I have chastised them a lot for how they handled this offseason I thought they were not as ambitious as they should have been that being said I still expect them to probably be a top 10 defense again I still think the quarterback is pretty special and I still think that there's enough when I look at like Ladd McConkie, Omari and Hampton the offense can have enough to it that I think it should be pretty good so this is a team and obviously all that being aside like Jim Harbaugh is just already in back into that tier of like these are just one of the handful of NFL coaches I really trust the most so I really have a decent amount of faith in the Chargers too again if we were picking Super Bowl teams I don't know if they would be that high because I think the ceiling is still a little bit limited but I think the floor is very high Denver kind of almost the Seattle argument like I really think that they could be the best defense in football this year and then offensively I have my questions about like how much better they can be because I don't think they really added that met much dynamic talent unless RJ Harvey is just a godsend but I do think again if the offense can be like relatively functional and stay out of the way of the defense maybe Bo Nix throws a few more or a few less interceptions this year.

1:01:08Dave Helman: Cool. Then we're in a really good spot there. And then the Raiders, I've been the Raiders guy since like the Super Bowl. I thought like we did a show on Radio Row where it was like, who is the look ahead sneaky team that you like? And I was like, I kind of like the Raiders with obviously Geno Smith, who we just talked about, Pete Carroll. I still have my questions about the secondary for sure. I'm still not sure the offensive line is that good, but hey man, you give me Geno Smith with Brock Bowers, Ashton Gentry, a solid other receiver in Jacoby Myers. I still am holding a candle for Michael Mayer being a really good tight end.

1:01:41Dave Helman: You could sell me on that team getting to like nine wins and potentially squeaking into the wild card. So this is a division where, again, I think I looked at it a lot from like, what is the percentage chance this, this team can just be good enough to be a wild card team. I felt pretty good about all four of them.

1:01:58Derrik Klassen: You know what? I think listening to you and I swayed you to move the AFC South down earlier. I think you might have swayed me to move this up to my number two. And it's it's a fascinating microcosm of of how you view teams. And we just did this with the Bengals. But it really boils down to, for instance, Cincinnati. How much do you believe in a mad team, a mediocre defense with an MVP caliber quarterback versus how much do you believe in a really, really solid team like the Denver Broncos? that not to shit on Bo Nix, but I mean, clearly nobody's going to argue. Bo Nix is playing at a Joe Burrow type of level.

1:02:41Derrik Klassen: You need a little bit more things to break your way to win games in that situation. But who do you believe in more? The irony is I would lean toward the Joe Burrow led team, but the Denver Broncos just beat them out for a playoff spot a year ago. So I will readily admit maybe that's a thought, a flawed thought process on my part.

1:03:00Dave Helman: I mean, maybe. And again, that was with what I think we assume is a worse Broncos team last year than it's going to be this year. Like, I think that's part of it. Like with when I look at a team like the Bengals, for example, I know they could have been a playoff team last year, but I don't feel like going into this season. They look like a better roster with Denver. They squeaked into the wild card and I look at their roster and to me it feels better. And of course, like stuff can always go wrong. Maybe the offense doesn't take the step that we wanted to all that stuff. But they were already a playoff team last year and I feel like the roster is better this year.

1:03:29Dave Helman: So it's just and also and this is true of, again, the top three divisions, I think. But I trust every coach in this division. Andy Reid is Andy Reid. Sean Payton is one of the best play callers in the league again. Like Jim Harbaugh, I just talked about being really good. And then Pete Carroll, again, I know things went a little bit awry at the end of Seattle, but like he's won everywhere he's been, man. Like he's he's one of the best that's ever touched the sport.

1:03:51Derrik Klassen: a fun thought that I had when I was preparing for this too was, do you agree with me that top to bottom, this is the best quarterback division in the entire NFL?

1:04:03Dave Helman: Oh, that's a fantastic question.

1:04:06Derrik Klassen: Um, I think you have two choices and it's the two Wests.

1:04:10Dave Helman: It's the two Wests. That's what I was kind of coming down to.

1:04:12Derrik Klassen: I mean, I, I hear you if you want to talk about the NFC East, but the giant situation is really dragging that down. like when you're talking about all four teams I don't think you can beat Mahomes Herbert Nix and and now Geno Smith I mean if you prefer Stafford Purdy Darnold and Kyler that's pretty good too but I think I would roll with the AFC West I think because the West has Mahomes it's

1:04:38Dave Helman: it's hard not to give it to them so I would say top to bottom I would say two to four you could tell me it's like it's all relatively similar but yeah I'll give the AFC West the edge because I I mean, you have the goat. You have Patrick Mahomes.

1:04:50Derrik Klassen: So I think that's a good point. Like I said, I started with him at three. And I think part of what worried me is that cannibalization thing, because the Raiders shouldn't be a patsy this year, right? L.A. and Denver both got two wins against the Raiders last year. I think when you're talking about being the six and seven seeds, that really matters is finding those two wins in the division schedule. Without that, I think it becomes a little bit tougher. But again, we don't need to talk about the Chiefs. The Broncos are are such a solid team top to bottom. The Chargers, I wish they had done a little bit more of this offseason, but it's it's hard to argue with the totality of it.

1:05:29Derrik Klassen: Obviously, their outlook took a huge hit late last week when Rashawn Slater suffered a season ending knee injury. Even still, I think these are solid rosters. And I think that's a really good point that the coaching matters. I mean, we I don't want to say we I undersold Jim Harbaugh's effect on the Chargers last year. And I don't want to do that again with Pete Carroll. Not to say that the Raiders are definitely going to make the playoffs, but I think they will be a respectable football operation very quickly, which has eluded the Raiders for a lot of the last few decades.

1:06:02Dave Helman: And, you know, I think the way that I can see of this, too, is you mentioned earlier that NFC West where what was it? The Seahawks went three and three in the division and then went seven and ten and the other three teams got in. If that happened again with this Raiders team and they were like the worst team in the division, but still went seven and ten and gave these teams tough outs. I don't really think I would be shocked at all if that's how this division played out.

1:06:23Derrik Klassen: so we've had a lot of disagreements on this show but one thing we do agree on is that the western divisions in the nfl are really really fun i've got them ranked one and two now and you've got them at one and three afc at one nfc at three i feel like oftentimes call it east coast bias call it whatever it can be easy to overlook those those western time zone teams sometimes, but I don't I don't think that's going to be on the table this year.

1:06:55Dave Helman: Definitely not. I mean, I'm the West Coast guy, so maybe I just have a little bit too much bias towards those teams because they they played a very nice time for me in the day, but we'll see.

1:07:04Derrik Klassen: All right. So one last time, let's go through our rankings. Let's let's we'll go from eight to one of least to most likely three teams in the playoffs.

1:07:14Dave Helman: So I had well, we both had the NFC South at the bottom. I think I think that's going to be the one we get the least pushback on from any fan bases. I think that one's pretty understandable. AFC South, I had it seven. At six, I had the AFC East, which again, that was a little bit of shuffling you convinced me on. At fifth, I had the AFC North, which I think was our biggest our biggest disagreement for a lot of this show. At fourth, I had the NFC East. At third, I had the NFC West. At second, I had the NFC North. And then first, the AFC West.

1:07:45Derrik Klassen: the one that's got the most potential to bite me is definitely the NFC East at six so I had NFC South AFC South at eight and seven at six I had the NFC East which could very much bite me in the ass if if Dak Prescott and Jaden Daniels are on on their P's and Q's this year AFC East at fifth NFC North at four AFC North at three and then like I said I've got the AFC West at two and the NFC West at one. Even now, knowing what I know, I feel silly thinking that three teams are going to make the playoffs from one division. It just it just doesn't feel right. But I think this is a worthwhile exercise because we got five years of data that say it's very possible or very likely going to happen again.

1:08:32Derrik Klassen: It's happened every year since 2020. So I like this framing of it where you can kind of take a look at the landscape and see what might be coming.

1:08:40Dave Helman: Yeah, even doing this whole exercise, it still feels wrong because I put the NFC North at second, but I literally just did a show where I was like, I don't know if the Vikings are good enough. So it's just a very, it's just a funny exercise to have to do.

1:08:52Derrik Klassen: There's no way I'll have the guts to pick three teams from the same division to make my playoff field and conceivably could be very wrong. Again, like Beller's trying to give me the answer to the test right now, and I'm just not listening, but this was a ton of fun, Derek. I appreciate it, man. We got more coming up for you this week as training camp rolls along. That's it for now, though. We appreciate it so much. We will talk to you all soon.

1:09:30Derrik Klassen: Your team just added its 67th AI tool and also your 67th security blind spot. The good news? The Vanta agent works like a GRC engineer in the background, Finding every app your team uses, scoring the risk, and drafting fixes for you. Vanta is the platform used by over 16 ,000 fast-moving companies like Ramp, Cursor, and Harvey, who are shaping the future with AI and staying ahead of AI risk. Get started at Vanta.com. Hi, I'm Jack Cravici, Kramer host of The Best One Yet. At T-Boy, we're always talking about small decisions that can have an outsized impact. One of the simplest is staying hydrated.

1:10:05Derrik Klassen: Whether I'm traveling, getting a workout in, or heading into a busy day, I keep Liquid IV on hand. It's clinically demonstrated to hydrate faster than water alone and contains three times the electrolytes of the leading sports drink, plus eight vitamins and nutrients. It's an easy addition to your daily routine and helps support hydration when you need it most. Shop now at liquidiv.com. Liquid IV hydration that goes wherever life takes you. This summer, JBL is on a mission to help you tune into what you love, audiobooks podcasts and everything in between with jbl's live headphones these headphones are perfect because of their high-res sound making your fave stories and voices come alive with so much detail exactly the way they were made to be heard plus they have 80 hours of battery life so you can binge without pressing pause all summer long find your pair at jbl.com