Which NFC team has the best supporting cast around its quarterback?

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1:30Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Ranking NFC supporting casts today. We did the AFC last week with me and Derek Klassen doing the NFC today. Just a quick note about the methodology here. This is a combination not only of the players involved and the offensive line quality, the talent level at the skill position players, the talent level at running back. This also takes into account just the overall environment and ecosystem with these teams. So what are the play callers and what are the offensive staffs overall doing to lift the quarterback? So just one little wrinkle that makes things a little bit, I'd just say, honestly, subjective compared to what other versions of this exercise could look like.

2:11Robert Mays: I think the same way it was with the AFC and the NFC, I'm probably weighing some of the environmental and ecosystem concerns, maybe a little bit heavier than Derek is and explains a couple of the gaps that we have in our list. But there are also a couple fun areas of disagreement on this show with us having teams higher or lower than the other person. So let's get to our NFC supporting cast rankings right now.

2:45Robert Mays: knocked out the afc teams last week today we are coming back with the nfc supporting casts derek before we get into our lists just a overall blanket statement the nfc supporting casts are much better than the afc supporting cast that's the first thing i want to say before we dig into this exercise way better they were even down to like my like mid-teens i was still like i can see a pretty good case for this offense being like pretty damn good and so i thought top to bottom i think the bottom is much better in this group and i even think the elite teams at the top are just like generally more exciting like you know the broncos are good the bills are good but some of these teams at the top of the nfc are like man they've got some talent there are some teams where i i put them in a spot and i was like i can't believe i have them here but when i actually thought about the list i was like all right who would i put them higher than similar to the afc And this is a way for me to just automatically start apologizing for some of my rankings.

3:42Robert Mays: I do have like some defined tier breaks and some teams within those tiers that I think is important. Like there's one there's again, there's a couple of teams that especially compared to where they'd be over the last couple of years, the last three or four years combined. It's like, holy shit, that feels low. But at the same time, they're kind of in that tier. I think that's where they belong. So I think we will have some fun disagreements here. but I overall I think that the quality of this group is so much better than the AFC that even if a number next to a team feels a little bit gross just understand that there is some inflation and I guess deflation happening with the NFC compared to what the AFC a list look like that's the thing I think I feel like if we did like if we combine these lists at the end it did like the full 32 whoever my 13 on this list is might only be like 19th or 20th overall like I I think there are some pretty good groups even down the bottom of this list.

4:36Robert Mays: So we'll start with that, but then let's shit on a couple teams here that are at the bottom of this list. So who did you have at 16 in the NFC? Somebody had to be there. I actually, even for as generally talented as I think the NFC is, I actually pretty comfortably came to the Washington Commanders. I didn't think it was that close. I mean, there are a couple other teams that are not so great, but I just, the Washington Commanders, I get the offensive line. we can see the upside case right like laramie tunsel is still very good sam cosme is good they spent the first round pick on josh connerly we'll see with some of that stuff but i still think it is an imperfect unit and they didn't add any skill talent really like the only guys that they added were chigo conkwo um a third round slot only wide receiver and rashad white at running back who is nice but more of a role player like i just it was hard for me to figure out like who they added this offseason that felt like could be a pillar rather than like a role player kind of just patching some things up.

5:33Robert Mays: Also had them at 16. I have two teams to me that were kind of firmly at the bottom. And I actually think that there are some weird similarities between those two teams that we can dig into when I get to the team at 15. I also had Washington at 16. It's McCorn and not much else at receiver. You add a pass catching tight end and, you know, a passing down running back. Let's call Rashad White that because the pass protection that he gives you. It's fine, right? But they're still absolutely in need of another weapon. And the offensive line has a chance to be a solid group and is probably the selling point here but even that it's like all right well you get a full season of healthy cosme that's nice laramie tunsel still elite connelly was better in the back half of last year but chris paul was like a decent kind of mid-season find it's like all right that we like our group better with him at left guard he didn't have a market in free agency you're downgrading its center by going from beadish to nick allegretti so and we haven't even mentioned the fact that there's a play caller we've never seen do this before.

6:30Robert Mays: There is a chance that David Blau is really good, but it's a question mark at the very least. And so Washington for me was a pretty easy 16. The team I had at 15, I think there are some parallels and similarities. Again, offensive line has a chance to be a relative strength. It's dramatically improved two years past, but I think that kind of means firmly top half of the league rather than some elite group. One true number one receiver and then kind of everybody else. And their big moves this offseason was adding a pass catching tight end it's the Giants the Giants in Washington feel like they're very similar in a lot of these considerations and so beyond the similarities I think in terms of overall quality that's why I had them paired together here at the bottom compared to all the other teams that we're going to talk about they are also who I had at 15 and so I think the only reason I kind of gave them the slight edge is that I know there's a lot of questions with Malik neighbors his health but in the world that we can look at where maybe he is healthy and does look like himself he is at least like much better not like significantly better than Terry McLaurin but he does give you I think more of a pillar and then even like to me Darius Slayton is a better number two receiver than anybody that Washington has I would even say Isaiah Likely and between him and Chigakonkwo like I think Likely is a better player like the skill talent is a little bit better even if like this is a team where running back room concerns are huge just because of like Cam Scadaboo's health like I think he's a cool player but we just don't know how healthy he's going to be and then Tyrone Tracy is kind of just an okay role player.

7:58The offensive line, they are actually a unit where I'm trying to piece together how good I actually think they're going to be, because obviously, Andrew Thomas is Andrew Thomas. And I really liked Francis Maui Noah coming out of college, but he's going to be kicking inside, which is obviously not what he did in college. I think he can do it. And then he's got some of the bad concerns. I think Jermaine Illuminor is good, but probably like a touch overrated. I think he's fine, but I think we thought that there was going to be a pretty big market for him and it I don't think was as insane as it could have been so I think the offensive line will be good but not like I'm probably with you like if they're like the 15th best offensive line that's probably a good outcome for them I think that's about what

8:36Robert Mays: I would expect and if that's the selling point of the unit overall in a very crowded field in this conference I think that's how they get pushed down as far as they have been and similar I'll bring it back around to the play caller and the infrastructure overall we've talked a lot about Nagy this off season. And it's an interesting offensive staff. I mean, you have two former head coaches with Brian Callahan in there now. You have three former offensive coordinators because Greg Roman is a part of this staff. But I still have my doubts about how it all comes together. If this was Todd Mocken instead of Matt Nagy, I would be more enthusiastic and excited about it.

9:10Robert Mays: The fact that it is Matt Nagy and feels like kind of a consolation after the original plan that they had, it has dampened my enthusiasm about what this is going to look like overall. When you combine that with the neighbor's health concerns and just some of the other personnel questions they justifiably have they were pretty easy for me to put down here like these two teams there's a firm tear break after them before everybody else and so this was the easy the top two and the bottom two were the easiest parts for me to fill out on this entire list that's what i would say yes i also actually that's a really good point about the staff because what i would like sometimes you get staffs where because they are actually pulling from so many different trees and kinds of ways to play football that you can end up at something cool.

9:49But this feels, this is going to be harsh, but this feels a little bit closer to like the Frank Reich Panthers, where there was just like this crazy amalgamation of like different staffs and ideas. And like, I'm not really sure what it's supposed to look like in the end.

10:02Robert Mays: Yeah, I am open to being proven wrong. But as of right now, I have my doubts about how that's going to work out. Let's get to 14. Here's what I'd say. This next group of like five teams is probably the stretch that I had the most trouble with because it felt right to put a lot of these teams back down here, but there are teams that, especially with certain position groups and certain elements of the offense, that I am genuinely excited about and we have seen play very well. So let's start with you. Who did you have at 14 on your list with the NFC? This was also a very troubling group for me that I actually didn't know what to do with, if I'm being perfectly honest.

10:41I and this is a team that I actually think I can see the upside case for a little bit. I put the Carolina Panthers here. That's why I have a 14. Really? Oh, my God. Because like I listen, everyone who's listened to the show knows that I love Ted Arroa McMillan. And I think that there's like a nice upside case for Jalen Coker. But I think a lot of the other pass catcher core, you're kind of having to sell yourself that some of those younger guys are just going to take a step in all of that. The running back room is fine, but not like super exciting. And then the offensive line, this is another one where like you can see the upside case, right?

11:13Like Damian Lewis was incredible last year. Robert Hunt is hopefully going to be healthy next year. You have a decent right tackle. Maybe Monroe Freeling has to play this year and he looks good. You can see the upside. But also it was a very up and down unit last year. And part of that was health concerns and they're changing out center again. And so you don't know how that's going to go. And then I think when we get to the play caller, like Canalis is good. but I, you know, not quite up to that, the superstar level play calling that is elevating people like Kyle Shanahan and all that stuff.

11:41Robert Mays: Not that I think it's going to be a huge difference because the same group is in charge of game planning, figuring out what the plan is going to look like, all of that. But Idzig is calling plays this year. So that's even one more kind of new piece of this. I landed on the Panthers at 14 and I was surprised about it because I do have like a general level of optimism and just satisfaction, I guess is maybe the right word about how the Panthers have approached the last couple off seasons. Like I look at what they've done and I'm like, this is fine. Like I genuinely approve of the arc of what the Carolina Panthers have tried to be over the last couple of years.

12:15Robert Mays: But if you look at every aspect of the offense individually, none of them really stand out at the offensive line, you hope is a, is a decent group, but that's still, even at their best, it's more of a, we can assert ourselves on the ground group than it is a, we're very good in pass protection group. So it's a flawed unit that kind of falls probably middle of the pack somewhere. Even if you're really excited about Ted O 'Reilly and McMillan, and I do think that there's another level to him that can get unlocked this year by having Brazel there, having more guys that can play outside. Can you move him around a little bit?

12:46Robert Mays: It's still overall, even if you like Coker as like a borderline 2-3 guy, it's like, it's fine. Like it's a solid group. It's not overly exciting. The same goes for the running back room, like you said. Even if Jonathan Brooks is back, maybe that gives them another gear, but that's still a huge question. And then I feel the same way about the overall structure and the play calling. Like, it's not offensive to me. It's fine. It's pretty solid. But that's kind of where I land on every individual element of this. And all the teams that I had kind of in the same tier, there was at least one aspect of those four categories where I was like, well, I like that more than what the Panthers have.

13:21Robert Mays: So I was surprised for them to be here. But when I actually worked through it, I couldn't really put them any higher. The other three teams above them just feel like they have, at least for me, because this tier for me is also about four teams. Like they have something that gives them a little bit more oomph. Whereas I feel even if they have like some sort of fatal flaw that I could see, the Panthers are just like, yeah, they're kind of fine everywhere. There's not like a fatal flaw here. But again, it's hard to see like what would, even in the best case scenario, punch them into being like a potentially top 12 offense.

13:54All right.

13:54Robert Mays: So we both had Carolina at 14. Who did you have at 13? so it's another tough one for me because i'm actually kind of excited about them but i ended up with the new york uh the new orleans saints here i thought i was going to have them way higher and then i actually did the exercise and i was like i kind of just like a lot of these other teams a little bit better than i do them and i still think that they could be nice but i just i thought i would have them top 10 for sure and i just didn't i have them at 10 and i admit in the first line in my nose about them, probably a little projection here.

14:26Robert Mays: Like I fully admit that I think it's a couple of different things coming into view. One, after having just watched Shuck and you try to remove yourself from the quarterback quality compared to what everything, everything that's happening around him. But I did really like elements of the offense and who they were trying to be, especially late in the year. And I think we talked about this on the second year quarterback show. I can so easily picture how their additions this off season are supposed to cover up for some of those flaws that I do think you combine that with better interior offensive line, health and play, you know, just so many different little things here.

15:02Robert Mays: I push them up just a little bit higher than a couple of the teams just behind them. And I think it's for, so just, I had them at 10. So that leaves three teams in between 14 at the Carolina 14 and the saints at 10, all three of the teams I had between them are changing out their play callers this year. So I think that's partially why I was willing to give the Saints just a little bit of an edge over that collection of teams, because you have continuity with the play caller. I think Kellen Moore did a very good job last year. And so that would give them a tiny bit of an edge over some of the other teams that I have.

15:35Robert Mays: So what what like weighed them down for you? Like if you wanted to maybe have them in the top 10 or thought you would coming into this, what were the elements that maybe push them a little bit further down that you might have expected? So I'll start with the offensive line. there I think the offensive line can be very good like I obviously love Kelvin Banks David Edwards I thought was a really good signing I just think one and this was partly health related they were injured last year that offensive line was not good last year there there is a lot of like hope here and again I've bought into that a little bit but it is a lot of hoping that a lot of things can come together and I think Tyrese Fuaga on the right side really needs to show me that he's going to take more of a step I think that there's still a lot of talent there and he got a little bit better last year but I want to see a little bit more from there before I feel really good about that room and then I would say as far as the pass catchers I was probably just slightly lower on some of the skill player acquisitions that they made like obviously I think Tyson like the ceiling is cool and I see the vision for it but I think as a prospect I just had a couple more questions than a player that went as high as he did and then Travis Achan I think is very explosive if you can get him to the second level and this is an offensive line that if things come together they could be able to do that in stretches but I just think he's a very inconsistent player and I'm not sure how much of their run game issues he actually solves the run game is is the spot that probably gave me the most pause and made me feel the most uneasy about putting them in the top 10 and putting them as high as I did they were 29th in rushing success rate last year and you'd hope that with an upgrade at running back specifically that gets better but just the run game infrastructure overall, I think left something to be desired last year.

17:15Robert Mays: And also we talked about this on the second year quarterback show, the overall lack of run game structure, holding up the passing game in this offense is very clear when you watch them last year. Like they were 30th in the NFL and like run action overall. It's a lot of gun. It's a lot of putting a ton on the quarterback and that allowed them to get the ball quickly. Like that was the structure of the offense. But overall, I think there isn't that much buttressing the quarterback here compared to some of the other like really put together overall offensive systems that are going to be near the top of this list.

17:50Robert Mays: So I think even if I like what Kellen Moore did for what it was, I still think overall, the structure of the offense doesn't do as much to lift the quarterback as some of the other play callers that I'm more excited about, if that makes sense. It does. And like we've seen Kellen Moore be able to do that at previous stops, right? It's just that with this Saints team, they were more of like a high tempo West Coast passing offense style of team. They weren't really like a cohesive tie everything together the way that you would ideally want to help a young quarterback and really help the offense. And so again, there's for all these reasons, right?

18:22Like you can see the upside for the pass catchers. You can see the upside for the offensive line. You can see the vision for all of it. I just think that they're further away than it felt like last year because were hopeful on some of the young players.

18:33Robert Mays: That's totally fair. And I think part of why I'm willing to, and this is a good example, right? So with Arizona, I have Arizona lower than the Saints. And I think part of that is I'm giving the Saints, I'm projecting the Saints to like a higher percentile outcome than some of the teams I'm leaving behind them. And I understand that's probably unfair, but I think it's just because of how clearly I can see that step happening and why I can see it happening. The Tyson point is a really good one. But I think part of the reason that I'm really excited and optimistic about what he can be in this situation is that even if I had questions about his ultimate ceiling as a prospect, I think in this specific offense, in an offense with Olave, where you don't have to do some of the vertical stuff that Olave is gonna be asked to do, it's a perfect use of him.

19:27Robert Mays: And so like the vision for him, Edwards and A-Chan combined with what they had last year, I just see it fitting like so seamlessly that it's easy for me to just convince myself that it's all going to work out in a way I might not be able to with some of these other teams. I know that's unfair, but I just I'm trying to figure out why I feel this way. And I think that's what I would drill down to. I mean, with the Cardinals specifically, it's not that unfair. They're the Cardinals, you know, they're prone to hitting their lowest outcomes pretty regularly. Which, funny, speaking of them, they would be my next team.

20:01It's actually the Arizona Panthers. You had them at 13? What number is that for me? It would be 12 for me.

20:07Robert Mays: Oh, okay. You had the Saints at 13. We both had the Panthers at 14. I had Arizona at 13. So we are in the same general vicinity here. Yeah. So what was it? Were you just less sure that they could get to, like, a medium outcome for this unit? Or why did you have them a little bit lower? I think the offensive line, especially the interior, has a chance to be much improved, right? With Salamal and Brisson just there. I still think overall, right tackle is still a big question. How it all comes together is worthwhile. Like second round guards are not necessarily a quick and easy path to improvement.

20:45Robert Mays: We've seen that could be volatile in terms of the overall impact there. So how much better is the offensive line really than it was over the last couple of years? I think that's one of my questions. And then I think it's just uncertainty. and we haven't seen Michael Fleur do this again in this sort of situation. The note that I have about the Cardinals, this is the one that I think could change the most depending on what happens this season. Like if we woke up in the middle of the year and it seems silly that the Cardinals were at 13 and we're like, actually they belong at like eight because Marvin Harrison Jr.

21:16Robert Mays: really put it together. They used him in a slightly different way in a different system. The offensive line did come together in the way that they're envisioning. Jeremiah Love is an absolute monster and a multifaceted monster within the offense. I could absolutely see me being the most wrong about them, but I think that there were enough questions still to be answered that I pushed them a little bit further down. I get that, and I think I just had them slightly higher, and we're quibbling over one spot with this particular team, but I think for me it was like, I'm so sure the skill talent is good.

21:47Even if Marvin Harrison doesn't really take a step or whatever it's going to be, like Trey McBride is the probably the best or at least like top three tight end in the NFL he's obviously incredible Jeremiah Love I think can be really really good out of the gate as a run piece and as a pass catcher like he's he's really really good at that and so I think he can be dynamic for you and the the receiving duo of Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson isn't the sexiest thing in the world but when those are your other two skilled players with the tight end and running back that's pretty damn good to me and so for me it's just like the offensive line definitely needs to get better, but I don't think it needs to get that much better for this to look like a pretty sexy offensive environment, even if Michael Fleur is kind of just average as a play caller out of the gate.

22:29Obviously, a lot of our this is another one, too, where it's kind of hard to like take the quarterback out of it of how you think about the unit overall, because we know that we're not going to get interesting quarterback play, I would say.

22:39Robert Mays: Why are they that low to you if you're like this excited about them? You just are more excited about the teams ahead of them. So I think in In terms of ceiling, if I was just rating ceiling, I probably would have put the Cardinals like eighth, something like that. Because, again, I think the skill talent is phenomenal. And, like, I do think the offensive line can get better. I think the reason I just had them a little bit lower is definitely the two teams that I have above them, they have one thing about them that I am very confident it gives you an extremely high floor in a way that I'm not sure the Cardinals have, even if I really, really like their skill talent.

23:17Robert Mays: Again, I said, I think this one could change the most depending on what happens this season. So if they do feel like a top eight team, if we were to do this again in the middle of the year, that would not surprise me. I just, for some reason, I think it's just a question about how much the offensive line is going to come together. And I think the pass catching group is good. I think like phenomenal is, I would hold back on that. I think if there, if this is an offense that can get the most out of those receivers, combined with what Trey McBride is going to give you, then I feel like we, this could look very different.

23:47Robert Mays: I still just like, what is Marvin Harrison Jr. in this situation? What is Michael Wilson in this situation? I think that combined with McBride and Jeremiah Love, there is a chance that if we're doing just offensive weaponry by the end of the year, are they in the top five in this conference? Are they higher than that? I do believe that can be the case. I just, I think I'm just in wait and see mode with an entirely new staff, an entirely new offense. And we just haven't seen any of those guys in this situation. And again, I think that's partially why I'm willing to put the Saints a little bit higher, even if I think the stealing case for them maybe is similar to where the Cardinals are.

24:24Robert Mays: Because at least we saw Kellen Moore do it last year, right? At least we saw that happen. The fact that it's an entirely new staff with the Cardinals and a lot of new roles, I think that's what holds me back just a little bit. All right, so you had Arizona at 12. I had Arizona at 13. So I have the Falcons at 12. Where did you have the Falcons? Wow, I had the Falcons at seven. I had them pretty high. But I'm the Drake London guy, so let's get into that. I can understand that. I think here's where I started with this. I think the offensive line has eroded a little bit over the last couple years compared to what they were at their best.

25:07Robert Mays: And I think that to me is, again, why I maybe was a little bit surprised how low I had them compared to some other teams. Like, for example, I have the Bucs one spot ahead of them. That is solely because I think the Bucs offensive line at its best can be a really, really good unit. And I think that Atlanta's offensive line is just no longer there. They had a sub 40 % rushing success rate last year with B. John. Like that's not great. That element of the offense just isn't quite what it has been over the last couple of years. When you had Dolman and McGarry, at least you had like an ass kicking, run blocking offensive line.

25:42Robert Mays: And right now, it's really just Lidstrom is really your only high-end player there. And then you have acceptable answers at a lot of those other spots. But it's not like a high-level group, especially when it comes to, like, the run game the way that it was a couple years ago. And as much as I love Drake London and I love B. John Robinson, it's Kyle Pitts and then what else? Like, the tertiary receiving options within this offense when it comes to, like, the receivers and the tight ends, I think that there's a lot to be desired there. So even if the strengths are very strong, I think the quality of the offensive line overall and the options behind the star level pass catchers, that was the reason I had them a little bit lower.

26:23The floor case for this team is a little scary. I don't even necessarily disagree with that because yeah, the tertiary pass catchers, once you get past Drake London and Kyle Pitts is a little bit scary. It's a lot of guys who have been fours for other teams over the last handful of years. And the offensive line has eroded, But I think my contention there and why I'm at least willing to believe it. Part of why I think they were struggled last year to find consistency is that it was the same play over and over again. Like they were the most like wide zone team in the NFL. Like it's kind of all that they ran.

26:54And so obviously Stefanski does some of that. But I think he's more varied and is going to do a better job of being able to piece together the offense as a whole. And even if the offensive line talent isn't necessarily better, I at least trust the structure of the offense to help those guys out. and give Bajon Robinson some better chances to continue to make plays the way that he has. I think a lot of this came down to me is that I just think I'm probably just higher on those particular three skill players than a lot of other people. Not Bajon. I think everybody obviously knows how good he is.

27:24But I think Drake London is as close as you can get to being in that elite receiver group without actually being there. To me, he is knocking on the door. Kyle Pitts, I think, is a very good player that we just all hate for fantasy football reasons from sins of previous seasons. But I think he is still a pretty good, damn good tight end. And then Bijan Robinson, I just like, he is a special player. He had like the quietest leading the league in scrimmage yards a year that I've ever seen last year because that Falcon scene was just disinteresting. But he's a phenomenal pass blocker. He's as good as anybody as a pass catcher.

27:58He, I think my favorite trait about him is he just fixes runs that have been nuked in the backfield. Like you can hit him in the backfield, but he will find a way to get back to zero, which is a pretty impressive trait. Like I just, the floor case for this team, I get it. I get why it's scary. The offensive line's not great. Some of the second and third pass catchers, but I think that trio of skill players with this coach and offensive infrastructure, I think it could be pretty damn good.

28:24Robert Mays: I guess that's part of why I have them a little bit lower is that I guess I just have some questions about what that, how good that offensive infrastructure is going to be. like the Browns looking what they have looking with the way they have on offense over the last couple years is that solely a product of offensive line injuries and quarterback play like is that what that is that the reason that the Browns have looked so haphazard over the last couple years or are we overstating how much of a fix this is going to be I think maybe it's wrong but I kind of mostly do believe that a lot of what went wrong with Cleveland was just a lot of injuries and the quarterback play being like being handcuffed to what they were at quarterback I think was tough because we had seen obviously this was four years ago whatever it was those offenses with like Jacoby Brissett or early on with Baker Mayfield like I that to me is more the real version of what you get with Stefanski and what happened over the last two or three years was more a product of circumstance than anything to hear why they should be ahead of teams like the Bucks and the Saints Like, again, that's all in the same tier.

29:28Robert Mays: Like, if you wanted to put the Falcons at 10, I would be okay with that. It's harder for me to put them over the teams I have in, like, the next couple tiers. That's harder for me. There are a couple teams I have them over that is pretty aggressive, but I'm okay with it. I probably am understating, like, the superstar-level impact that Bijan and Drake London are both giving you when those guys— I mean, obviously, Drake London was a little bit banged up last year. I'm probably underrating that a little bit, especially when you compare it to like a team like the Bucs one spot ahead of them. But again, I think when it comes down to it, I just think that the Bucs offensive line at its best gives you a chance for such a floor as an offense.

30:06Robert Mays: And I think we're just forgetting how banged up the Bucs offensive line was last year in talking and thinking about what they're going to feel like this year. Even if you have questions about everything else, I still feel like the best case scenario for that offensive line is what gives them a slight edge. but I could still see the Falcons like at the top of this tier being in the top 10, but any higher than that. And again, some of the teams you're going to have to put them over to put them at seven. I'm just not sure I can get there. And they're going to feel aggressive once we get there, but I get it.

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34:29Robert Mays: all right so i had washington at 16 giants at 15 panthers at 14 arizona 13 falcons at 12 who did you have at 12 i had at 12 that was where i put the arizona cardinals so who did you have at 11 speaking of the tampa bay buccaneers this this to me was kind of a tier like 11 to 14 ish and i put the bucks at the top of it because of what you just said like Like the offensive line, the best case for the offensive line is still like a top probably six offensive line. Like center is obviously squared away. Tristan Wirfs is as good as anybody at his position in the league. Luke Gadecki is a really good right tackle when he's healthy.

35:05Like Mock is really good. The offensive line, if it comes together and if it's healthy and if the offensive play calling looks decent for them, I think it can be a really special unit. I just think one, the new play caller, you know, for the third year in a row or fourth year in a row is that is a big question mark to me, I think, in this particular case. And then the skill group is not bad. Like there are definitely some talent here, but I found myself less excited about them than I thought I was going to be when we started the exercise.

35:34Robert Mays: Yeah, that's kind of how I feel, too. And I think that Zach Robinson was he was fine in Atlanta, right? It wasn't a disaster, but I still have my concerns there about how this is going to look. And I think the skill position talent just isn't what it was a couple years ago when Godwin was healthy and Mike Evans was Mike Evans. Right. Like Ibuca was had he really struggled in the back half of last year. And so now you're even if Mike Evans was banged up last year, you're removing him from the equation. It's really Godwin and Ibuca are the guys you're really leaning on this year. Bucky Irving took a huge step back last year.

36:07Robert Mays: I was, you know, the offensive line was part of that. And so I think that there are enough other big picture questions about some of the personnel, the play calling, everything else, that even if I'm excited about the offensive line being back healthy and what that can mean, I have enough reservations that I have them in this tier compared to where we would have had them a year ago or two years ago. and here's my minor reservation with the offensive line talent wise they're obviously incredible but I think when they were at their best like two years ago and stuff like like especially with Liam Cohen so much of what they were good at was a lot of like gap scheme runs like moving guys pulling guys down blocks all that stuff Zach Robinson didn't really do any of that in Atlanta and so obviously I think he could change and I think this offensive line is so good that it kind of doesn't matter what you run with them but I do think that there's like a little bit of like I I wonder if they're going to end up leaving meat on the bone with the way that the offense is going to be constructed.

36:59Robert Mays: Wouldn't be worried about that. I think the offense, I think the run game looking the way it did in Atlanta is purely an expression of Dwayne Leverett and his background. In Tampa, Kevin Carberry is still the offensive line coach and still the run game coordinator for the Bucs. The same way he was when Liam Cohen was there. Because Carberry was in Atlanta when Zach Robinson, or was in L.A. when Zach Robinson was in L.A. And so they just carried him over. So I assume that, I mean, I'm pretty sure that the run game looked the way that it did in Atlanta last year because that's the way that Ledford wants to do things.

37:28Robert Mays: I think the run game will look much more varied and diversified in this Zach Robinson offense than it did in the last Zach Robinson offense. And if that's the case, then my concerns are at ease there. Because that was my only, again, if they were a purely or like more of a wide zone offense, I'm sure they'd kick ass anyway. but it does feel like the way that you want to run things with this team when you have Tristan Wurst, Graham Barton, Cody Mock, like you want to move people and try to kick some asses. All right, so I had Panthers, Cardinals, Falcons. I'm feeling worse about the Falcons one, but I still just like, I think, you know what part of this is?

38:04Robert Mays: I think part of it is just an inability to picture what it's going to look like. I'm like fully willing to admit that like Drake London and B. John Robinson in this sort of offense with this version of the offensive line. Like I just, I can see the case for like how those guys are completely unlocked and it feels silly to have a team with like those two guys as two of your skill players this low on a list like this. But I think I'm just having trouble imagining what it's going to look like and what the best version of it actually, like how the best version of it actually manifests. I'm trying to think through why I'm so low on it compared to where you are.

38:41Robert Mays: And I think that's part of the reason. And I kind of get that. I do feel like part of that, too, is just it's a little bit of the quarterback thing. Like, it's hard to see what it looks like when those quarterbacks are trying to operate it. I just I think what I've learned with some of these lists, too, I am very willing to look at the guys who are like all pro potential at their skill positions and just being like, I'll bet on it. We can figure some other things out, but if they are that good, I can figure it out. And I think I tend to weigh, all right, I've seen the overall plan for the offense lift the players in the offense.

39:14Robert Mays: And I weigh that pretty heavily. And I think that because it's an entirely new staff and I just don't know what it's supposed to look like at its best, I think that's probably why I have Atlanta a little bit lower. And I think I was spoiled and saw where you had one of these other teams. The team you had at 10, I think, is very much an expression of this. So who did you have at 10 on your list after the Bucs? I was shocked to have them this low but I had the Green Bay Packers at 10. This is where you and I just differ in an exercise like this. I have them higher than that. Matt LaFleur is awesome.

39:49I think he is so so good at the job. He is constantly solving problems. I think he has some of the best like one-off game plans in the league like even some what he did last year like in some of those Bears games even I thought was just incredible. I mean granted not the best defense but he carved them up in the way that you were supposed to. and like there's still skill talent here like obviously Tucker Craft is incredible Watson played well at the end of last year but I think you're having to make a leap of faith that Matthew Golden can be really good and maybe he can be to make up for the fact of like losing some of the depth that they have there like the the reason I really have them this low is the offensive line going into this exercise last year there were questions about the offensive line but they were coming off of a really good year and it was like okay I have so much faith in this organization and this staff to get the most out of it that whatever they do to shuffle around this best five they'll find a best five and it'll be good well now they have fewer of those pieces to work with and I'm and the offensive line was not good last year so I just it's hard for me to see what the upside case is with the offensive line I think that's ultimately where I landed

40:56Robert Mays: I'm not sure what the upside case is. I think I have them much higher than this. I have them at five. And I get that. But they scare me, man. I had a tier from six to three, which was four different teams. And I had the Packers essentially at five, six with one other team that we can talk about. And I think part of this is just inherent faith in the overall environment they consistently create in that building and have for many, many years. Like you go back through it. I can't, I wonder like how far back you have to go to get to a place where they were not a top 10 offense when the Fleur was the play caller.

41:39Robert Mays: I think you'd have to go all the way back to like 2019. His first year there is when they were not a top 10 offense by DVO. Excuse me, they were. So every single year they have finished in the top 10 since he has been there. And I think some of that is the level of quarterback play. And that was the only part that I was like, am I underrating how much of a hand Jordan Love has in this? And maybe I'm overrating it because I think he's incredible. But you might not be because I went back through and I watched a couple games as part of this. And I couldn't do that for every single one of these teams.

42:13Robert Mays: But for the Packers specifically, I was like, okay, I want to know how much just inherent faith should I have in the structure of the offense compared to some of the concerns you might have about the personnel. And I went back and I watched a couple of those games late in the season. I watched one of the Vikings games back, the Broncos game back, and the Thanksgiving game that they played against the Lions. A lot of it is like shot making from Jordan Love. Like that is like a good chunk of like what makes the offense special. I think he's a really, really good quarterback. But at the same time, I still feel like you watch the Malik Willis games and just how well orchestrated those games have been over the last couple years.

42:54Robert Mays: And even if I think that the back half of last year in 2025 overall probably wasn't the best year for Matt LaFleur, even as a play caller, I just think that he's deserved the benefit of the doubt to such an extent that even with an offensive line that might not be quite as good as it's been in years past, even with a pass catching group where you do have to project that step forward for Matthew Golden to imagine the best version of this thing, even with the running game that was middle of the pack last year compared to other previous seasons where they have been closer to the top five. I still just have so much faith in him and that staff's ability to work through that and come out on the other side.

43:32Robert Mays: And once again, just be one of those groups that we watch and like, yeah, this is one of the best offensive coaching staffs, offensive play calling units in the entire league. Like they've just been that for so long that even if last year was like a slightly off version of this team, I still feel like they can get back to that level. I think they can in the idealized world, but like they've only lost talent this offseason is kind of my issue. And the offensive line, it's hard for me to see why they're going to be better. Like they're shuffling some pieces around, but it's a lot of the same pieces.

44:06That's where it's hard for me to get there.

44:07Robert Mays: What pieces did they lose that you're like really worried about? Like is the downgrade from Rasheed Walker to Jordan Morgan your concern? Like Elton Jenkins didn't play in the back half of last year. They lost Romeo Dobbs. Like that's the losses are skill players. Yes. Yeah. And I do think I do think Dobbs specifically, you go back and you watch what he was for that offense last year. And the idea that Matthew Golden can be some approximation of what Romeo Dobbs was last year, I think understates how good Dobbs was. But I think overall, the combination of Watson, Reed, Golden and Tucker craft, and just how complimentary those skill sets feel combined with an offensive line that I do think is going to give you a certain floor and LeFleur and just the complete backlog we have of him constructing offenses that just make things easier for everybody.

44:57Robert Mays: I still just feel like we're going to wake up in the middle of the season and you having them at 10 is going to feel you're going to have regrets about that. I just don't think the offensive line gives them a floor. It is not a talented unit like at all really the Zach Tom is really good but other than that you have a ton of question marks if any of these guys can even be average NFL starters when I say gives them a floor I think the where the reason I land there is like it's good enough I think with the offensive line my thought is the same way it has in plenty of years past where like even if the talent didn't seem that great we get to a place where like it's good enough it's good enough and I do think that we have a chance for that to happen again, even if there are more concerns about the individual talent, like for the starting five and the depth that we have behind them.

45:46Robert Mays: The depth is a very good thing to bring up, but I still feel like overall, it's a group that is probably going to clear the bar. And when you compare, when you combine that with everything else, that's why I have them a couple notches higher. I think for me, and I actually think that that's like, I get that argument of them just being good enough. I think for me, it's just they were barely there last year. And it's a lot. It's easy for me to see how they would fall under that line this year. I think that's where this they get drawn down for me. The skill talent is good. And I do love Matt LaFleur.

46:17But I that offensive line more than other places scares me, which like we'll talk about San Francisco later. Their offensive line isn't good either. But I think there's again, Shanahan and some of those skill players, I think, are just like a different tier to me that allows me to get over it.

46:33Robert Mays: i will fully admit that there's a chance this is kind of just like a lifetime achievement award for everything that matt lafleur and that group has been over the last five or six years i'm willing to be okay with that like i'm just okay with that i'm willing to live with that even if that's the case i'm willing to live with it the thing i want to say with this team too this is where the tier starts to get where like i have them 10 here but if we did the entire league they would be like 16th like i i don't think it's a bad offense by any stretch the nfc is just loaded and I had to put somebody here.

47:02It was funny.

47:03Robert Mays: I had them at six in my original rankings and I flipped them with another team. And the reason that I flipped them is like, I just think Matt LaFleur is better than that guy. And that's why I ultimately flipped them. And I think that just happened often enough where I just kept pushing them a little bit higher. And I can understand landing where you did for the reasons that you did. But I just think that we have way too much history of them being really good at this for me to put them any lower than the tier that I put them in. All right. So I, that's, you had them at 10. Let's get to nine. This is, for me, it was after the Saints before this team.

47:34Robert Mays: I have a tier of three teams from nine to seven that all have like one similarity between them. So who did you have at nine? I think actually for everything we just said about Matt LaFleur, I'm going to switch my nine to my 10. Because I do think, because I have actually a lot of similar concerns about this team, but I know that the Packers play caller is good and I don't know about this team. I had originally the Seattle Seahawks at nine and I'm going to move them to 10. Obviously, JSN is incredible, but this is another team that really only lost talent and they also lost their play caller. And so this was the reason I'm putting them there.

48:13Robert Mays: You, okay. So, okay, so you put the Packers ahead of the Seahawks. I am now doing this, yes. Okay, that feels okay. Because if my whole thing with the Packers is going to be the offensive line, I then saw this and I was like, well, the Seahawks offensive line is not that good. I don't really need to be doing that. I had the Seahawks at eight. So very firmly in this tier, but I had them at eight instead of nine. I think it's a few different things. I mean, obviously last year, the offense and the structure of the offense was so good. And it was just such a departure from what they had been previously.

48:46Robert Mays: And I think that was a big reason for their success. Like everything was tied together so well. We talked about Seattle a lot in that tight end show we did. Like the Seahawks, even if we think of them as kind of a defense first team, justifiably, They fell in line, the structure of the offense and what they were trying to be, and fell completely in line with what really good offenses in the NFL were doing in order to dictate how the game is being played. Even with a new play caller, and I think that's part of why they're a little bit further down this list for me is because they do have a new play caller this year.

49:15Robert Mays: I think the structure of things and the benefits that structure gives them will be the same. Who they're trying to be on offense I think will be very similar. The question for me and why they fall into this group of three that all of them have new play callers, I think there's lingering questions about that. I think that beyond the structural things that Kubiak brought to the table, he was an excellent situational play caller last year. So even if the plan is going to be the same and you have faith in Brian Fleury and the fact that he was the choice Mike McDonald made, which that matters to me too, Mike McDonald would be like, this is the next guy I think should call plays for us after handpicking Kubiak.

49:53Robert Mays: I do think it can work out. But I think the situational stuff, you just never know. And I think Kubiak did such a good job with that last year. I think that's relatively what pushes Seattle a little bit further down for me. That was a big question of mine, too. But honestly, for as much as I think that's true, like obviously losing an offensive coordinator who is now a head coach who did a really good job and certainly made that unit a lot better than we thought it was going to be. I think even if Kubiak was still the play caller, I would only probably have moved them up a couple of spots because the offense does have some holes and it's an imperfect unit as it is and it wasn't like it was an elite offense last year see here's what i would say so i have a group of teams from six to three i would have them in that tier not this one even if the overall probably like the bottom of that tier probably the bottom of that tier i they would be like maybe they would still still might be seventh but i think they'd be closer to like the teams i have at four and five than the teams I have at eight and nine here because they would have carryover with the play calling.

50:55Robert Mays: That's the reason. The two things that do a lot, that would do a lot of lifting in that scenario are everything that Kubiak did last year and JSN. Like JSN goes a very long way here. But then you combine that with the fact that you now get Shahid for the whole season, you get Torrey Horton back. Like I do think that they would firmly be in the next tier if Kubiak was still here. I think they fall back one, like one step because of that. and again into this group of three teams that all have a new play call that I have from nine to seven. That's probably fair because I think if I'm looking at my list now, I have a group around like five and six that I don't think they would crack for me even if Kubiak was there, but you can get them.

51:35I had the Falcons at seven. You could probably convince me to put them above the Falcons if Kubiak was still there.

51:41Robert Mays: This team finished fourth in passing success rate last year. The Niners, Rams, and Patriots were the only team ahead of them. They're fourth in explosive pass rate. I think, again, the structure of the offense, and I think that Darnold played well last year, but I still feel like elements of the offense certainly lifted the level of quarterback play that they were getting to an extent. That's okay. That doesn't mean to diminish what Sam Darnold did. I think we're just underrating a little bit the work that Kubiak did last year and how much certain elements of the offense have helped butchers everything.

52:16And I think that's also why, I think some of what Kubiak did is like why I can't see the ceiling as high this time around, because the floor to me, I like, even if it's all the same structure, I do think because Kubiak was calling plays so well, he elevated the offensive line, even like a tier above just whatever the structure is going to give you. And I wonder how the new play caller is going to be able to really piece all of that together. And then with the skill group, like you're just betting on a lot of young players taking steps. obviously Arroyo at tight end Torrey Horton at wide receiver you just drafted a running back in the first round who has never really been a lead back and obviously you know when you're playing next to Jeremiah Love in college it's hard to do but he has never really done it and so I think you're just asking a lot of really young players to get there I think you're underrating JSN in

53:03Robert Mays: this too but yeah and I might be I think you're underrating JSN in this too if you if I and I'm not sure I'm not saying he's as good as this person but I think it's it's worth just doing this for a theoretical thing. Let's just say Jamar Chase replaced JSN here. And Clint Kubiak was coming back. You wouldn't have them like in the top five? If they had Jamar Chase instead of JSN and Kubiak was still there, I would probably put them like fourth or fifth. Yeah. But I think like, listen, this Seahawks fans are going to hate me. They're going to be really mad. JSN is obviously an incredible receiver.

53:38I really think Jamar Chase, Jamar Chase to me is like him and Justin Jefferson are And Pukinokua, I think, at his best. Like, JSN is great, but there's something about the physical presence of a player like Jamar Chase that is just a little bit different to me. I think JSN is— Maybe this is a stylistic thing, because I know that—

53:55Robert Mays: I think some of it is a stylistic thing. It is. I think that the Offensive Player of the Year and a guy that you— again, they built a top-five passing offense when you look at the efficiency through this player in a way that you very rarely see in the NFL. Like the ability to do that, there just aren't that many guys that you could do that with. He is one of those guys. And so, again, I want to just be very clear. The only thing pushing them back into this tier for me is the fact that they are swapping out the play caller. A lot of the other elements of this are in line with some of the teams that are a tier above them on my list.

54:32And I also want to again want to be clear. This is to me is the difference is arguing between like the difference between a 98 overall player and a 99. Like to me, Chase is just a 99. Um, I would like, I don't know. That's kind of all it is for me. I think it's a stylistic thing on top of like, I do think he's just like a hair better. I think for me, a lot of it comes down to obviously JSN, what he gives you down the field and ability to get open is his ability to get open is probably slightly better than Chase, but there is something about the guys who, when they have the ball in their hand, they are the scariest person on the field.

55:03JSN is good with the ball in his hands. He is not in the stratosphere of Jamar Chase. I don't think very few people are. all right i'm thinking more about it i honestly think so you you got one switch right you've you've moved i moved the pack yes i flipped the packers and the seahawks that will i think i think

55:22Robert Mays: i feel good about the rest of my list yes my one change i'm going to make is i think you've swayed me enough i think the falcons belong in this tier and part of the reason i'm willing to do that is because they fit the first-year play color thing. If the structural concern is what are pushing some of the teams in this tier down from the top, top teams in the league, I think the Falcons probably belong at the back end of that tier rather than where I had them at 12. So I have the Falcons now at 10 and firmly in this tier. That's the only change I'm going to make. I'll take that. This feels more right because I think you're right.

55:57Robert Mays: I think the Bijan, what is that different about the star-level talent what the Falcons have with kind of an imperfect offensive line and a new play caller like that actually kind of falls more in line with the teams that I have here okay so I have the Falcons at a 10 I have the Seahawks at eight you had the Seahawks at nine correct well I switched them the Packers so I now have the Packers at nine but yes okay and then the Seahawks okay Seahawks at 10 the Packers at nine i had the lions at nine whoa i had the lions considerably higher than this i had the line in this year of teams i had the lines top three three yes i think i think we are significantly over correcting on how like bad last year was think about all of the negative air we spent talking about the lions they were still a top 10 offense by any metric I think this team is still really good, and we're just like— You had the Lions at three.

56:59Yes.

57:00Robert Mays: I can't get on board with that. I think they are a really good team. They are still a really good team. I can't get on board with that. And again, I think part of this is the fact that I have them clumped in this group of teams where you're swapping out the play caller. I think that is a part of it to me. But the play calling wasn't good last year. But I don't—how good is it going to be this year? Like, okay, I think that— That's fair, but— That to me is, that's my concern here, is that, like, I just can't put them. You think the Lions should be over, like, the Vikings? Yes. Like, I think the skill talent is pretty comparable, and I think I can see a higher upside case, I think, a little bit with the offensive line in Detroit.

57:46And I think that the play calling, I don't know if Petsing is great. I don't know if he's as good as we wanted him to be after what we saw with the Cardinals in 2024. But I think the big thing with the Lions last year was they could still get explosive. They were as explosive as anybody as an offense. The problem was the down-to-down consistency. A lot of that to me was some of the new play calling. And we had questions about that coming into the season. And then also just health with the offensive line and changing out new pieces. That's obviously going to be true as well this year, like changing some new pieces on the offensive line.

58:18It's obviously a young unit. But I do think that Petsing can raise the floor of the offense and raise the play calling. And so if we take that and think about what we know with the ceiling of the offense with Jameer Gibbs being as explosive as anybody, Amon Ross St. Brown being a really good wide receiver, Sam Laporta being one of the most explosive tight ends in the league, Jameson Williams being about as good as an ancillary piece as you can get in terms of explosive plays. Like, to me, I think it's not that hard for me to envision the world where they're like the fifth best offense again.

58:47Robert Mays: it's not that hard for me to envision that either i just think that it's hard for me to put them above some of the teams that i have in the top six because those teams we've seen it we have continuity with those teams i think that's part of the problem if you i have the lions at seven here easily right like all the teams in this group to me are completely tied together like if i i have the seahawks at eight i have the eagles at seven if you wanted to put the lions above any of those teams totally fine I would completely understand that but again I just think that they belong in this tier compared to the teams ahead of them just because I just I hold on wait did you have the Seahawks above them I had the Seahawks is that what you said I had the Seahawks one spot ahead of the Lions at eight it's essentially but in the same tier right but to me like they're both switching out their offensive play caller I think the offensive line there are questions about both maybe I just prefer whatever the style that the Lions are trying to build but then I think with the overall breadth and depth of skill talent in Detroit is is way sexier than what Seattle has the best singular player there is JSN but the depth in Detroit I just think is is a lot better I don't disagree with that I I would be fine putting the Lions ahead of them I think two things are coming into play with why I have Seattle a little bit higher in this tier than I did originally.

1:00:09Robert Mays: First of all, I had, I originally had the Seahawks behind them. One, I'm trying to overcorrect a little bit for having the Seahawks 16 flat here. I feel like I really disrespected them. I will fully admit that's why I have them higher too. I do think that JSN to me is in a slightly different group than even Amon Ross St. Brown is with like your highest end play like your highest end pass catcher and what you can do with him as the centerpiece of your offense. Those are the two factors that are the reason that I put Seattle at eight and the Lions at nine. But I and then and then the other part of it is like I couldn't put the Eagles behind the Seahawks because like the Eagles offensive line and that the potential of that to me was still so good that that's why I gave Philly like a tiny bit of a bump over those other two teams.

1:00:55Robert Mays: The Lions specifically, the offensive line has a chance to be very good. You upgrade at center, you get a lot more bigger and physical at center. You have a rookie right tackle now. The interior was a huge question last year. And then you combine that with a play caller that has been solid, but isn't, in my opinion, the sort of difference maker that some of the guys at the top of this list are. And I think that ultimately is what pushed it down. Again, some of the play calling stuff and the offensive line questions I buy, I think maybe I'm just more bought in on how many like Pro Bowl plus level skill talent players that they have.

1:01:30Like, it's really easy for me to get there. Obviously, JSN, purely as a pass catcher, I do agree what he allows you to do in terms of explosive passing offense is a little bit different than anybody in Detroit. I mean, Jameson Williams kind of does that, but he's too specific to really count. But I do think in terms of overall explosive offense, Jameer Gibbs is a similar caliber of weapon to me. Obviously, run game, pass game is a little bit different, but he is like that caliber of player and explosive threat.

1:01:56Robert Mays: I can see the argument for it. Again, I just think that if I'm going to keep them out of the tier that I have with the top six, it's all the same. If you wanted to put them at seven, that's fine. But I do think that they belong in this tier solely because I have questions about how much the play calling and the infrastructure is going to lift things compared to the teams ahead of them. That's why I landed there. So I had the Lions at nine. I had Seattle at eight. Who did you have at eight? Eight is where I have the Philadelphia Eagles. Okay. I have them at seven. So pretty much the same group.

1:02:26Right. I think this came down a lot to like, it's just they're another team where it just feels like a lot of stuff has gone out of the building. Obviously, losing AJ Brown is massive. And then the offensive line is still pretty talented, but Dickerson's had some health issues like Lane Johnson is great, but is getting older. No Jeff Stoutland in the building now. Like, I think they're, while it's still a very good offensive line, I wonder if they can be the top five unit that we all just kind of like don't think about and just like ascribe them to that level I do wonder a little bit if they can get there and then the the wide receiver group to me is fine with Devonta Smith like he's a really good player and Makai Lemon we'll see but Dallas Goddard has been a little bit on the downtrend outside of the red zone last year so I just it's a good offense but not as sexy as I think I wanted it to be when I started

1:03:14Robert Mays: I think for me if I'm trying to like again talk through why I had the Eagles and the Lions like grouped in generally the same vicinity. I think that, I think I have more confidence in the Eagles offensive line being like a real legitimate strength and the pass catchers just being a slight tick down from that where with the Lions, it's flipped where the pass catchers are obviously like a legitimate strength. And I think that the offensive line, highly drafted players, you could see it working out, but I think there's still more questions. To me, like the way that both of those groups kind of even out isn't that much different for me.

1:03:48Robert Mays: I think it kind of evens out in the same place. And again, we have new play callers in both of those spots. So I think that's why, again, if I'm trying to talk through why I had them grouped together, I do think that they feel kind of in the same group of teams. Logically, that actually does make a lot of sense to me. Was the difference then for you that even like we kind of know what Petsing is and it's fine, but the ceiling is maybe not that high, whereas at least with Mannion, you can talk yourself into some sort of upside being there. Is that ultimately what it came down to? Yeah, maybe. But again, you could flip a coin and these teams could be in different spots.

1:04:21Robert Mays: This all to me is the exact same. This tier is as muddled as any of the other ones. I think that the Lions, the Seahawks, and the Eagles, you could flip the orders and I would feel completely fine. But again, I think that there is a gap between that collection of teams and the ones I have ahead of them, in part because of the continuity with all the aspects of the offense. And so I had the Eagles at 7. Who did you have at 7? at seven is where i'd put the falcons that's where you had atlanta okay yes so then we have very similar top six teams the only team that you don't have in your top six that i did that i had in my top six that you don't is the packers right right this is also this i find is very funny because i think you know dave has mentioned a number of times this offseason already like picking who you want in the in the nfc north is going to be really really hard and i just find it funny that the one teams for each of us that we like had a real disagreement on was an NFC North team I just think that the other this are the teams in the top six so you had you had let's we already talked about the Packers I had them at five so the teams that are your top five are in some order the Vikings right so the Vikings the Cowboys the Niners the Bears and the Rams those are the teams you had in your in your top five and the Lions in addition to that and that's That's my one different one, yes.

1:05:39Robert Mays: And again, why to me the Lions are outside of that tier and the Packers are in that tier is that I think my overall faith in the environment with all six of these teams, because we have seen these groups be successful, and with some of them, we've seen them be very successful over like a multi-year period, that to me was a reason that I had these teams in this tier and the Lions just slightly one tier back. Same with the Eagles. that that just that feels like just like slipping into a nice pair of slippers that you're familiar with like I know these play callers I know some of these offensive lines where I think I don't know with the talent on the lines I just I think I'm intoxicated by what the ceiling can be even if last year was not their best showing if I had the Lions at seven instead of nine you'd feel much better about this and so I just want to keep reiterating the fact that I could have just had them at seven and there wouldn't be that much of a difference all right so you had i had the vikings at six that's exactly where i had the vikings okay it was at six at the bottom of this group for me and i like we definitely had them higher last year i think this year it's a little bit harder to make the case for the offensive line one because we've seen some of those new pieces now but also ryan kelly is now out of it he's retired and so i think that part of it kind of throws a little bit of a wrench in things obviously the depth at wide receiver and even the ceiling is incredible there.

1:07:04I think where I'm at, though, with the overall ecosystem of the offense, I think I'm OK saying that Kevin O 'Connell is good and not great and that I still have a lot of concerns about the run game. Like, I think I'm at a point now that like we've done this for enough years that I'm not going to give them the benefit of the doubt that things can change. I kind of need to see it before we can bump up into the next year.

1:07:23Robert Mays: That's exactly why I had them as the way I did. And that's ultimately why I flipped them in the Packers, because when I first did this, I had the Vikings at five and I was like, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, your number two receiver, Hawkinson, you know, the offensive line should be much healthier this year. Kevin O 'Connell. And then I was like, well, wait a second. Like, I have more faith in what Matt LaFleur has been as a play caller consistently than anything that Kevin O 'Connell has done, even in their best years. Like those years where we were talking about how great the situation was around the quarterback, they were still like the 12th or 13th best offense in the league as Matt LaFleur has been pumping out top five offenses consistently every single season.

1:08:04Robert Mays: So that's where I sit with it is that I think last year we were thinking of the Kevin O 'Connell and the staff as one of those like true difference making groups combined with Justin Jefferson and an offensive line that had a chance to be much, much better. I think it's harder to talk yourself into the first part of that equation now. So even if the pass catching talent is still very good, even if when healthier, the offensive line should still be a good group. I think there is enough of a gap between O 'Connell and some of the guys higher on this list that ultimately landed the Vikings at six for me.

1:08:38That's what it is. Like, I think the offensive infrastructure there is like above board. I just, when I look at some of the other ones above this group, talked about them, the Cowboys, the Bears, the Niners, the Rams, the Lions for me I either trust I trust there's something about them that I trust a little bit more than a lot of the other stuff like with obviously with the Bears and the Rams it's the play calling with the Lions even though they have some other questions it's the skill talent like they just have one thing where I was a little bit more willing to buy it I think I I'm with you on

1:09:06Robert Mays: all of that and again that's why I had them at the bottom of this tier and not any higher I think if you look at what happened last year top five in your case or top six in my case might be surprising for people. But I think if you project this moving forward, the offensive line should be much better this year than it was last year. They played 17 offensive line combinations last year, which was the second most in the league after the Chargers. Their most played combination, which is both starting tackles with Derrissaw and O 'Neal in the game, played 25 % of their snaps last year. That was it.

1:09:37Robert Mays: The pressure rate with, if you look at all the units with Derrissaw, which is significantly lower than it was when Justin School was in there, which shouldn't surprise anybody. The number that jumped out to me, the EPA per drop back last year with and without Christian Derrissaw on the field. Without Christian Derrissaw, negative 0.35. With Christian Derrissaw, negative 0.08. So that's the difference between the Browns offense and the Bengals offense from last season. With and without Christian Derrissaw. And on-off stats are, again, normal caveats about how complicated and complex they are. It's not causal, but just an indication of how different this group felt.

1:10:17Robert Mays: Even with Derisaw banged up last year, he was hampered last year. And you still felt such a drastic difference when he was out there. He said this week he feels essentially 100 % healthy, like as good as he has felt since the knee injury happened. And I think that that combined with the rest of the offensive line still being an improved group from where it was a couple years ago and the skill position talent. Even if I do land where you do about O 'Connell, I still think they deserve to be in this tier of teams. again and that's why I put them here like to me you know I had the Falcons at seven and the Vikings at six that's a split for me like I do think that the Vikings are like a tier above that and are kind of in their own thing here with these other teams all right we're gonna take one more quick break and then come back and chat about the top five so I'm playing in a softball league this summer and it's great I'm having a ton of fun baseball was a sport that I played my entire life I was pretty good at it if we're gonna let myself pat me on the back for a sec always came naturally and my brain still works the way it did when I was younger, when I was a little bit better at the sport than I maybe am right now.

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1:14:27Robert Mays: All right, so you had the Vikings at five. I had the Packers at five. Right? No, the Vikings were my sixth. but you had the viking at six okay so you have a five the dallas cowboys i had them oh okay a little bit higher this is one where i think i i i really really want to buy the ascending and young offensive line i think maybe the reason i put them right behind my team at four is i just there's a small amount of me that like does want to see it but this is a staff that i think that we were both really impressed by last year like in a way that we just didn't think that we would be like Brian Schottenheimer and Clayton Adams really kicking up the gear the way that they did I thought was was awesome and you can still very well see the upside case for this offensive line and then to go to the talent thing like having a wide receiver group with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens is there's there's a lot of easy in the offense when those two guys are out there and so even if the tight end room is whatever in the running back room is kind of just okay I think a lot of those factors make it easy to see how you can you can you can make a really special offense just out of these pieces.

1:15:28Robert Mays: Part of the reason I had the Cowboys in this tier and I had them at four was because, again, I fall in the same place that you do with Schottenheimer, Clayton Adams, the staff, what the structure of the offense looked like, all of that stuff. That's why I had them in this group. Why I had them a little bit higher is because of the receivers. Like right now, where would you rank Pickens and Lamb among starting wide receiver duos in the NFL? I mean, Chase and Higgins is one. i mean after that you can kind of open the door right i think i think it's them yeah because like because i of those two like justin jefferson is a better player than either of those two but i think both of these two are comfortably better than like jordan addison and jordan addison's a good player but like much better cd lamb is a 30 million like a justifiable 30 million dollar receiver and george pickens was better than cd lamb last year like i i really don't even know it probably is just jamar chase and t higgins that might be it that's the reason that i had the vikings or the cowboys as high as i did again i like a lot of the things that they did last year and i do think the offense is going to be even better with that staff in year two you had a lot of guys there in the year you're one of their roles clayton adams is first year as an offensive coordinator in the league it's a huge step up in responsibility their offensive line coach came from college like i think there are just so many new elements to what that staff looked like last year.

1:16:49Robert Mays: I do think they're going to be even better this year. And when you combine that with, to me, like what feels like the NFC version of what Chase and Higgins are giving you, like, I do think that they are firmly the second best duo now, now that AJ Brown and Devante Smith are no longer together. So when you combine that with the enthusiasm for the staff, even with some of the questions about the offensive line, I do think those questions still exist, right? Tower Guyton was, is still work in progress. Him coming into last season banged up is a huge bummer. I do have faith he can be better going through this offseason fully healthy.

1:17:22Robert Mays: You get Cooper Beebe back healthy for most of the season. I still think that has a chance to be a really, really good group, and I'm maybe giving them the benefit of the doubt in the way I'm not with some of these other offensive lines. But one of the reasons that even with that in mind, I think the receivers just pushed them up so, so high for me that it was hard for me to put them any lower than four. I get that. Again, I think this just came down to like my team at four has a really good play caller that I trust. And obviously this staff is pretty good too, but he's one of those untouchables.

1:17:54All right. So you had the Lions at three. So that means you had the Niners at four. I had the Lions top three. I'm going to decide when I get there where I actually put them. But at four, I have the San Francisco 49ers. Yes. And again, that ultimately comes down to the offensive line. Obviously, in San Francisco, I think it's going to be worse than it is in Dallas. And obviously, I still think the top of the Dallas skill talent is probably better, if only because Mike Evans is getting older and George Kittle will see in terms of his health. But Kyle's the man. Kyle Shanahan is incredible. This, to me, in the way that you were talking about Matt LaFleur kind of just prints top 10 offense, Kyle Shanahan prints top 5 offense.

1:18:35And I do think with him, I'm a little bit more willing to buy that despite the offensive line questions.

1:18:40Robert Mays: The only, the Niners were firmly at the top of this tier of teams. Like, they, I do think there's a separate, there is a separation between them and the teams I have, one and two, and we can talk about that. But the Niners were, like, no doubt about it. They were third overall and at the top of this tier. The only reason they're not in the group of teams I had at one, two, was because the run game just isn't, like, a dominant, like, we can assert ourselves in this way sort of group. They were, like, dead on average as a running game last year. That's truly the only thing. keeping. And I think the offensive line talent and the ceiling that the offensive line overall gives them is not quite what it is for the teams at the top in part, because again, they just can't assert themselves on the ground in the way that I think the Rams and the bears can.

1:19:22Robert Mays: So that's the only reason that the Niners are like a small step back from those two teams. Other than that, I mean, just there's everything to like about this. I think that the Kyle Shanahan part of it is obviously undeniable last year they led the nfl in passing success rate the niners did okay the number and overall they did it as a team 39.3 percent of their attempts led uh went for first downs which is the highest rate in the league if you look at it by individual quarterback brock purdy was number one in the nfl last year in passing success rate well among players with at least 200 dropbacks who do you think was number two is it mac i was gonna say like four if you were gonna guess me the number that's insane it's it's mac jones so if we're trying to isolate the elements around the quarterback here their quarterbacks finished one and two in passing success rate last year like it's it's ridiculous how well put together this thing is consistently and again the only reason they are not up there one two a couple of these other teams is that i do not feel like their run game had the same you level that the bears and the ram showed last year that's the only reason and to me like there probably is some amount of I actually don't even know how much higher this would push them but like you know it is a fragile group like Kittle is literally coming off injury like McCaffrey has dealt with it before Ricky Pearsall is is you know always kind of hurt despite how good he is when he plays Mike Evans is getting older like you can see the downside but also the upside if the offensive line is just fine the way that it has been in the way that Kyle Shanahan has been able to work around them and then these skill players can be like 85 percent of what we want this group to be.

1:20:59Holy shit, man, they're going to be so good.

1:21:02Robert Mays: Fine admitting that I am probably too low on the Lions. I'm fine admitting that. The idea that you have the Lions ahead of Kyle Shanahan in this list is f***ing disrespectful. I just think it's disrespectful. To Shanahan specifically, sure. I think this Lions skill group, I really feel like they are so underrated. I don't know how. I think they're really good. I love it. They're insanely good. You were the person earlier this offseason who said he wouldn't draft Amon Ross St. Brown in the first round. Don't pretend like I don't love the Lions skill position players. But they've got three other good guys.

1:21:38Robert Mays: I love the Lions skill position players. I just think, again, the fact that you don't have that you have that group ahead of Kyle Shanahan, I just think is funny. And I think part of the reason that I think even the talent level on those groups is more similar than you think. I am holding out hope. and maybe this is probably, there's danger in this. I think if this group stays healthy and if Kittle can come back and be on the field early in the season, which it seems like he might be able to, and this is a terrifying thing to say, but if Pearsall can stay healthy, the combination of Mike Evans, even at this stage of his career, Kittle, Pearsall, and McCaffrey, to me is just absolutely terrifying.

1:22:22Robert Mays: Like one of the things I went back and I watched a decent amount of Niners stuff before this because again I it was you know the scopes and talent maybe isn't what it used to be in the offensive line still have some questions about that the running game was average like what is this group really doing to lift the quarterback even if the numbers are really good what does it actually look like I wanted to go back and just re-familiarize myself with that there are so many things that drive this offense lifting the quarterback up and to me it's like the way they use space, it's better than anybody.

1:22:52Robert Mays: Like how they use every inch horizontally of the field and make things really, really difficult on defenses when they get five out in the route, no one is doing it better than this team. And they're doing it more often than anybody. 79.4 % of their past attempts last year came with five guys out in the route. And I believe that's the highest percentage in the league. And when that fifth guy is McCaffrey, it just changes the entire complexion of what defenses can do. But beyond the big picture takeaways and like being reminded about how good it is, one of my other like conclusions while rewatching this shit is that I think Pierce all is like a star.

1:23:26Robert Mays: I legitimately think that he is like a star level player. And so if he can stay healthy with Kittle, with Evans, with McCaffrey and everything Kyle Shanahan is doing, that to me is why they're still so high on a list like this. That really might be all it is for me is it's like so many ifs with the skill players, because I agree the, the, the, like, if you guarantee me 17 games for everybody on the lines and everybody on the 49ers like it's comparable and then obviously the play calling is way better I just and maybe this is like stupid for an exercise like this but I'm just not confident that we're going to get that out of those guys I want to see it but I think I'm just like a tad more scared of it than I am with a team like the Lions among players with 50 targets last year no Pierce all was fourth and first downs per target I believe it I believe it all those outbreakers were I believe I don't have the list in front of me, but I believe it was Puka, Pickens, and number one was Kittle.

1:24:22Robert Mays: That's it. His teammate. That's crazy. Kendrick Bourne was sixth. Also believe it. Also believe it. The Niners are very good. Kyle Shanahan is very, very good. So, all right. So I had the Niners at three. You had the Lions in your top three. Are you going to put the Lions a three i'll go three yeah i'll go three i i think i think enough about the bears is good enough that i have to put them at two to me it was a clear one two like it was a clear one two the the the only reason it was not a clear one two to me obviously again i think van johnson is exceptional i think the upside case for this offensive line is it is really high not knowing what we're going to get at left tackle and then obviously having a huge downgrade at center does scare me a little bit and then i like the young receivers i think we're having to take like a little bit of a leap of faith to say that this is going to like continue to be a very very good unit like i i think rome's great i think burden you're having to take like a decent leap to say that he's going to be like a really strong number two i believe that's going to happen i'm fully willing to i think the lions pass catchers and skill position talent overall is much better than the bears like a step above I'm fully willing to say that.

1:25:41Robert Mays: I think the positions, the staff puts those players in and what that does for the quarterback to me is just, that's a different step. Like I think if the, if there's a gap between the lions and bears go position talent, I think there's a significant gap, even if petting is good from what Ben Johnson is doing and what anybody else is doing other than like Sean McVay in the NFC, other than Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay, you look at it, the bears, even that the left tackle stuff, totally fine. They had questions at left tackle last year. It was a combination of Braxton Jones, Theo Benedict, and then Ozzy Trapillo.

1:26:15Robert Mays: They were still number one in the league in rushing success rate. They were dead last in the percentage of their runs the Bears were where the back was hit behind the line of scrimmage. They led the league, the Bears did, in the percentage of their throws to wide open receivers. That can be a self-selecting stat, right? If you look at tight window throw percentage, some of that is quarterback style, quarterback decision making. But I was talking to an analyst guy with a team this offseason, and he told me their in-house separation metrics have the Bears firmly at number one. And so that matches up anecdotally.

1:26:47Robert Mays: It matches up with the numbers. Even if the individual talent to me is one step down from some of the other teams that I have ranked lower than them, I think the positions that talent is being put in combined with the talent being good enough is the reason that they are firmly number two on this list, in my opinion. I think ultimately I agree with that I think there's just I have a there's a small ounce of me that is a little bit more not pessimistic but I think just again cautious about what removing the center from that is all going to look like and then again just like I will say what kind of got me over the the wide receiver issue and it's ultimately getting me there to say that they can be fine at two even though Roma Dunze and Luther Burden is not like the craziest one-two receiver pairing and even the receivers after that I think it's a lot of unknowns or just a lot of role players it's not an offense that is going to ask as much of their receivers in the sense that like they are running the ball a ton they are putting two and three tight ends on the field a lot and so them having that issue like I was able to get over it I do think Ben Johnson puts your offense in as good a position as anybody and they have enough skill talent especially if Loveland takes a step like Loveland is already good and if he takes another step he really can be one of those like oh we just build the offense out of that guy even if he's the player he was in the playoffs last year I think you could feel pretty good about what that group looks like and I think that Odunze being healthier this year and burden in year two I just have faith that that can all come together and when you combine it with the environmental things we're talking about here to me like they were pretty clearly number two and then we both I assume had the Rams at one yeah I mean I didn't even like put notes for this team like it's so obviously the Rams that I there's not even like there the offensive line is probably going to be good again Sean McVay is always the best at this and they have an incredible wide receiver actually if we were going back to the wide receiver duos Puganuku and Devontae Adams maybe you're having to you're having to talk yourself into Devontae Adams maintaining this level of play at this age which he kind of didn't at the back end of last year but if he can again they are also in that tier where would you rank Pickens and Lamb among wide receiver duos in the league is it just Cincinnati Rams Vikings have cases that was the entirety of my notes so the Rams are the only team we did not mention the Rams absolutely are worth mentioning there but I still feel like I right now I think if we're limiting it to those two guys just like top two guys I think I'd rather have what the Cowboys have but you have Puka Nakua you have their run game finish second in the league and and rushing success rate last year per next gen they can just line the ball they can just line up and run the ball at you which is like you know a luxury not everyone on this list has puka had 30 contested catches last year 30 which is is crazy because like when he came into the league that's not real like he made contested catches over the middle right like going into like car crashes and being willing able to make those those catches but as like a sideline ballerina make styles of catches like that that's not really what he did and then last year he just like learned to go up and get the ball on the sideline and learn how to make you know tip toe tap catches on the sideline like he him adding that element to his game we already knew they were going to get some of that when they brought in davante adams and then to get it also out of pukunukua was like i just didn't feel like they had that much more to give and then the offense always finds a layer that was one of the areas where the rams had a slight edge for me because i think the bears if you're like i do think the bear situation is really really good the one area where i think the bear situation is lacking is that there were a lot of 50 50 plays left on the field for them last year Rome caught seven of his 30 contested targets last year.

1:30:19Robert Mays: Puka had 30 of those. So the Bears combined had 33 contested catches per next gen. And that's driven down a little bit because there was a lot of open receivers. But they still only had 33 contested catches. Puka had 30 on his own. No other receiver in the league had more than 22. So the environment, the star level talent, the overall quality of the run game, the fact that they always feel like they're a half step ahead like they were pretty clearly number one for me even if I do think the Bears and the Lions or the Bears and the Rams belong in their own tier at the top and that's a good way to put it because I think if these two teams are kind of close for all those similar reasons Pukenakua and Devontae Adams for different reasons just feel like cheat codes in a way that maybe Colston Loveland can be that for them next year but isn't up to that level yet whereas like Devontae Adams in the red zone was as good as you could possibly be and then puka nakua is just like an offense unto himself and so yeah that those two put them over the top just a little bit i will say a funny response to the afc group was that we had the broncos at number one because we wanted to diminish what bo nix is doing i put the bears at number two like this is not all about trying to prop up the young quarterback that you root for like i'm fully willing to admit that whatever caleb williams does this season he is getting a hell of a lot of help in doing it right those two things can't really run like congruent with each other where we're doing that for Bo Nix so that we can shit on him but then we if we're putting Caleb here we're like okay well then the Bears expectations for Caleb are pretty damn high if we're saying that they're the second best offense we would probably say in the NFL right like if we if we were doing the all 32 like I'd probably put them yeah I'd put them above the Broncos absolutely and I think part again I think that right now to me Johnson McVay Shanahan just exist in like a slightly different area.

1:32:05Robert Mays: And I think the Bears run game quality and what that run game looked like last year. That's the reason they get a slight nod over the Niners. That's it. All right. So let's run through these very quickly. I had Washington at 16, the Giants at 15, Panthers at 14, Cardinals at 13, Bucks at 12, Saints at 11, tear break, Falcons at 10, Lions at nine, Seahawks at eight, Eagles at seven, could flip any of those. I want to say that again. tier break vikings at six packers at five cowboys at four niners at three tier break bears at two rams at one all right i had the commanders at the bottom at 16 and then i had the giants at 15 panthers 14 saints 13 cardinals 12 buccaneers 11th seahawks 10th packers 9th eagles at eight Falcons at seven Vikings at six Cowboys at five Niners at I don't remember if I flipped them or not I'm gonna I'm gonna still say four and then Lions at three four yeah you had the Lions ahead of Kyle Shanahan I remember and I was I was trying to remember if I did that or not I'm willing to roll with it but uh but yeah that was uh that was my list I fully admit that having the Lions in that in that third tier could come back to haunt me but I still feel like right now the continuity with the play calling and all those other places is the reason that they just belong a slight step down but I feel overall I feel the only thing again when I changed it I think the Falcons belong in that tier with the Lions the Seahawks and the Eagles it's the only thing for my original list that I think you swayed me on other than that you're very wrong about the teams that we disagreed about we'll see about the Falcons all right that is all we've got for today we will be back tomorrow with our next lingering questions series, just stuff that we wanted to go back and reexamine from the end of last year that we just might not have had the time to do in real time.

1:33:58Robert Mays: Very excited about continuing those conversations for now. That's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

1:34:33Robert Mays: We'll be right back.

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