Which outlier stats are most likely to remain outliers?

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0:36See terms at discover.com slash credit card. Summer can smell like so many things. For example, citrus in the sun, spontaneous road trips, and warm backyard evenings that stretch on forever. It's a feeling you want to hold on to long after the season ends. With Pura's Summer Fragrance Collection, you can. Restore your sense of place, bringing the moments that define your summer right into your home, exactly the way you remember them. Clean fragrances, smart control, all from your phone. Visit Pura.com to shop the Summer Collection. Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I am Dave Hellman. Robert Mays is out today.

1:18But never fear. We have the true sicko on board, Derek Klassen, joining me for another Mailbag Monday. Right off the rip, I'm just going to let you all know, we got into the weeds at the linebacker position for like 20 minutes to open this mailbag. What else would you expect us to do with Derek Klassen on a mailbag episode in mid-July? It is the perfect Tafts conversation. Really, really fun mailbag. We saved some running backs from running back purgatory. We revisited some draft class. We examined Matthew Stafford's Hall of Fame candidacy, talked about some famous playoff no-shows, covered the gamut as we usually do.

1:59Like we always say, wonderful questions. Please keep sending them in. We love having our brains challenged by what y 'all have to serve up to us. We went long on this one, but loved the conversation. Can't wait for y 'all to hear it. Without further ado, let's get into it.

2:25All right, as per usual, let's get right into it. We've got Michael Beller on the mic handling the questions. Beller, how you doing? Let's get this thing started. I am doing great. This is a question that we have saved for like two weeks because Derek wasn't on last week's mailbag, so it's just been sitting in the sheet, and I've been bumping it up, bumping it up, bumping it up, and so now we get to it. It comes to us from William Savory. William's question is, we often talk about ranking QBs in tiers. I personally think this can be fun for other positions. One position we do not rank in tiers often is off-ball linebackers.

2:58I would love for you guys, mostly aimed at Derek, to rank as many linebackers as you can in terms of tiers. You do not need to rank players inside of the tiers. He's also laid out a tiering proposition. He said you can use whichever you prefer, but we'll just use his. Tier 1, math-changing players, in parentheses, exclusively reserved for Fred Warner. tier two very good mostly two-way players tier three good mostly one way tier four above average mostly one way to your five average one-way players with utility six average replaceable guys so Derek let's hear it man what do you got okay so I I will start by saying if I don't name

3:32Dave Helman: any of the like if I don't name a player at a certain point I don't think it's that I forgot them it's probably that I just did not think that they were good enough for one of these tiers and So I'll start by saying that. That's the opposite. That is the opposite of the maze. Well, maze is like, if I didn't say his name, I forgot. Sue me. And Derek's like, no, if I didn't say his name, he's not good. Yeah, I scoured the hour lads. I probably did not forget them. There are also a couple of players here that I think are like hard to rank for a number of reasons, and we'll get to them. But we'll start with the first tier.

4:03Dave Helman: And our questioner here is correct. The first tier is for math changers. It is for Fred Warner alone. That guy is he is his own beast. Okay, rather, we talked about this before we did the show. Like, I have some guys, but I did not. This is your question, buddy. Like, I was waiting for you to be on the show to tackle this. I'm just going to riff off of what you're saying. Is anybody even, do you think anybody's even close right now to entering Warner territory? Or is it, and I completely understand that Fred is in a category all of his own. But, like, is there a guy that's close? Is there somebody that you thought about?

4:41Dave Helman: I think the best of Roquan Smith is there. I do not think last year was Roquan Smith's best. So I'm going to say no there. I think the guy that if I'm projecting somebody to get there in two years, it is Carson Schlesinger. And I'll talk about him in the next year. But that's kind of it to me. And there are a lot of other very good linebackers. Fred Warner is just like he's up there with Bobby Wagner, Luke Keekly, Patrick Willis. It's like the best that I've ever seen in my entire life. So that's kind of where it is for Tier 1. Tier 2. this to me is like yeah very good mostly two-way players and this to me is like this guy should be a pro bowler every year and maybe obviously knocking on the door of all pros Jordan Brooks is in this tier to me Ernest Jones Carson Swessinger Jack Campbell Roquan Smith I put an asterisk on like last year was weird for Roquan Smith but I still believe that like his best plays are like this and I do believe that with Jesse Minter he could be in there and so that's kind of my like tier two like these guys can be all pros or I would expect him to fight for it the next tier is guys that are good and have like maybe some sort of limitation are still probably good two-way players but just not like as dynamic Nick Bolton is in this tier Demario Davis at this age I think two years ago was probably in the previous year but I think now that he's slowed down a little bit is more in this tier um Aziz Alshair I think is this tier Jihad Campbell Zach Vaughn I think that to me is that tier of like clearly a very good player might make pro bowls and is like definitely giving you good three down play the one that's interesting to me is bond just because he was so amazing in 24 and i don't i don't think he was bad in 25 uh but maybe not on the level that he was in 24 that's it's a guy that i think the sample size is just a little small to definitively decide where you put him but i would have leaned toward tier two I'm a little surprised to hear tier three I think in 2024 he definitely was that I think in 2025 he looked a tick slower to me and I think was not quite as dynamic against the run as I'd remembered him being in 24 but again still a very good player and like that there are a couple of guys where it's like he was maybe this year last year but if he's tier two again next year because the Vic Fangio defense is incredible and the Eagles are awesome like that would not be that surprising to me.

7:01So that's the, I got frustrated trying to do this. Even like once you get past the first like six, eight guys where I'm like, okay, is Devin Lloyd going to keep playing this way? Or was that a one-off? Like, what do I do with that? Very similar thing with what Devin Bush did in Cleveland last year, where I'm like, how, how am I weighing the most recent thing versus the larger sample size? And I do feel like linebacker is one of those positions that can fluctuate pretty wildly from year to year it definitely can because there are players like I

7:34Dave Helman: was super excited about like Deion Henley coming into this year I do not think he played very well in 2025 and so like he's not very high on any of my tier this year but again he's like athletically has all the gifts to do and I've seen him play well and so if he's tier three this upcoming year that that wouldn't be that crazy to me but I just think like based off of last season he was not the player that I wanted him uh to be like I think last year I would have put him in Maybe this tier, maybe the tier four tier that is above average. And then like I projected him to continue getting better and he just didn't.

8:06Dave Helman: And so to that point, tier four above average, mostly one way players, I think is is correct here. Like some of these guys have three down utility, but are mostly two down guys. I think Edron Cooper is in here. I know the Packers defense was not very good last year, but they were playing behind like their sixth defensive tackle. Like that's kind of fake. Robert Spillane is in this tier, like really good run defender. N 'Kobe Dean uh Jameon Shearwood and Quincy Williams obviously the Jets season was really weird but I think at their best they're still really good players and then even though he wasn't a full-time player I did put Leo Chennault here I think Leo Chennault is a really really good player so that is my like giving you good snaps I don't know if you want them out there like a hundred percent of the time kind of players I was about to say we had a conversation a mailbag or two ago about paying linebackers and what's the return on investment that you're getting.

8:59And I think, you know, the questioner, William, gave you six tiers. So if you say tier four, that's kind of a negative connotation. But you mentioned Robert Spillane has been a really good player for most of the last three, four years, I thought delivered on his contract in New England very, very well in year one, even if he's not like a top, top of the line linebacker. So I am curious about where you draw the line between like, ah, this guy's worth having on a big salary. This guy, maybe not so much.

9:36Dave Helman: I think this is the tier where you are not getting surplus value for your money. Like, I think surplus value for your money is like Jordan Brooks and Ernest, like that tier of guys. I think but this is like you're getting what you pay for. Like, I don't think that Kobe Dean is going to like revolutionize what the Raiders are going to do on defense. But he gives you more reliable play. You can obviously use him as a blitzer. He's not like a dynamic run down the seam sort of coverage player. But I actually do think he's like buttoned up. And I think he feels space well. He comes down and closes pretty well.

10:06Dave Helman: I think it's part of why they had him on the field over Jihad Campbell. even if jihad campbell can do the like run up the seam run with a real uh wheel route sort of shit that the kobe dean i think just athletically doesn't have um the next tier is the one where i think you're questioning a little bit if you're like if you're paying them if you're really getting your money's worth i was gonna say i noticed you said you said the name of one pricey raiders linebacker but you haven't said the name of the other one yet of quay walker and i i think quay Walker is a reasonably good run defender I I do think that he is still a little bit of a liability in coverage um and so I think that's kind of why he's more this year and again I think this is a guy that you can play as like a three down player and be your starting linebacker you're just not extracting that much value out of them but again I I will say with the Raiders specifically their linebacker play was so bad last year that I'm kind of okay with them spending like 25 million dollars to fix the problem um so i thought that was fine that is over overpaying yes sometimes we lose sight of that where it's like oh my god they overpaid in free agency overpaying to fix the raiders linebacker room is fine that's okay they were playing devin white and jamal adams in 2025 that like it's okay to pay for younger players who have a little bit more pop that's fine um so this the rest of this year average like one-way players average may be mediocre depending on some of these guys, but have some utility.

11:34Dave Helman: Kway Walker, this is a big tier, by the way. Blake Cashman, I put Devin Lloyd here. He had the All-Pro and had the picks, but I think he had a little bit of a fraudulent season. In my opinion, we can talk about that after I name the rest of these guys. I think Nate Landman is here. Foye Olokun from the Jaguars, I think, is here. Henry Toototo is here, which is actually surprising to me because he is a player I did not like early in his career, but I think he actually has developed to be like a useful, you know, weak side run through player. Alex Singleton, Tremaine Edmonds, Zaire Franklin, Drake Thomas, TJ Edwards.

12:10Dave Helman: Cedric Gray is here. I thought about putting him in the tier above, but I still want to see a little bit more on passing downs, I think, from him. I think this really illustrates the point we were talking about a few weeks ago where, I mean, you said some names that either have a lot of cachet in the league community or have big paychecks. And that's the difficult thing to parse about linebacker is what are you getting for the money spent? And I mean, I did say five minutes ago that, like, depending on how Lloyd goes from here, maybe you put him up as high as like tier two. I'm a little surprised to hear him all the way down here, even if this past season was far and away his best one.

12:56I mean, I know very inconsistent and certainly not on that level over the first three years of his career. But I am I don't know that tier five is still a little surprising to me considering how good he was for the Jags last year. But if you say it's fraudulent, I know you've spent more time watching the tape back than I have. So I'll I'll lean on you.

13:17Dave Helman: He I think part of it is just that sometimes with linebackers, you can have guys who are fine players in really good defenses where the numbers just pop. like a player randomly racks up like nine sacks as a blitzer or obviously in Lloyd's case like gets a handful of interceptions and some of those were really impressive plays like the one that he got against Purdy I think was impressive the pick six he runs back against the Chiefs was really impressive like he had some pop plays I just think that his down-to-down consistency is not anywhere near even the guys who are in like tier three like Nick what Nick Bolton gives you on a down-to-down basis I think is a lot more consistent than Devin Lloyd especially against the run like I think Lloyd, because of his length and some of his athleticism, does give you some nice stuff in pass coverage.

13:59Dave Helman: But I think, one, he's never really been the pass rusher that we thought he might be coming out of college. And then on rundowns, even though I think he actually did improve a little bit this year in terms of his block take on and willingness to come down and hit, he's still, to me, a firmly below average player in terms of like run recognition and how much space he's taking back against the run. So I don't think he's like a bad player. I just think that the amount of money that he got, it was like he just had like a kind of the right season at the right time sort of deal. It often works that way in a contract here.

14:33All right. Tier six average, you know, replacement level linebackers. I can't wait to hear how long this list is and who's on it.

14:42Dave Helman: Yeah, this I actually broke up into two tiers. So I have like mediocre starters who it's like, not offensive, but you probably would want somebody who was better here. And then I also had like niche, but useful. And so I'll start with the niche, but useful guys. Frankie Louvoo, I think is here. Caden Ellis, I think is here. Justin Sturnod, Denzel Perriman, Derek Barnes, and Eric Wilson. All guys who play like kind of weird roles in their defense. I was going to say, you're listing a lot of guys that I don't even, not all of them, But a lot of the guys you just listed, I don't even think of as like a true off ball linebacker.

15:17Dave Helman: Most of them are just go forward and kill kind of players. Denzel Perryman and Justin Sternod are like probably the most normal of this bunch. And even then, Denzel Perryman is mostly like Gron from Lord of the Rings. Like that's mostly his role. A reference after my own heart. And so this other tier, mediocre starter, I put like Patrick Queen here, Pete Werner, Barrett Carter. Drew Tranquil, Deion Henley, guys who are like, I think have had better moments. Or like in the case of Barrett Carter, he was a rookie, maybe he can. But are, I think, barely giving you average play, even if that. At least last season.

15:59Trying to think of any, are there any like notable names that we, I mean, you didn't forget anybody. You said that off the jump.

16:08Dave Helman: I do have one that I know people are probably going to hear or have not heard. and probably call for, I did not list Terrell Bernard. I thought Terrell Bernard was really bad last year. And I think part of that may be his injury. Obviously, the whole defense was in flux, and I think there's a chance that he could be better. Because I think at his best, he's like a tier three, maybe four player. He's a really good run-through player. He can be pretty good in coverage. I just thought last season, he got bullied anytime you touched him. You've said a hundred names, so I might have just missed it.

16:38Dave Helman: Did you say Drake Thomas? yes I had Drake Thomas in tier five which was like average one-way players with utility he's he's kind of like a very juiced up version of some of the niche but useful guys it honestly but but he I really do think I think if I made this list like in week six of last year when he was like barely coming on I probably would have put him in that tier but I actually do think by the end he was like he really did a lot of really impressive stuff for him mentally which I think is why he kind of sold me and put me and put him in that tier go forward and kill with a with a caveat for maybe more in the future yeah I do have one final tier here which was like guys that deserve some sort of ranking but I just did not know what to do with Damarian Overshown like I he's had some cool flashes but it just the health stuff I think is really difficult to project what he's going to be um D Winters I think has just been like him going into an entirely new defense I think that's tricky for me to kind of unwind.

17:38Dave Helman: Cody Simon from the Cardinals, like he moves like a linebacker who was good, but did not play like a linebacker who was good last year. But he at least intrigues me as like a mid-round rookie sort of guy. Dre Greenlaw, like based off of what happened last year, I have truly no idea. And then a couple of guys who have started for their teams at times and are probably returning to a starting role, like Trenton Simpson, Malcolm Rodriguez, Ventrell Miller. Ventrell Miller, I'm actually like mildly interested in as like a Devin Lloyd replacement and then trenton simpson i i would still love to ask someone on the raven staff why he got benched over teddy buchanan because i just think simpson like athletically is so much more impressive um and i think with buchanan coming off his entry simpson will probably play this year so we'll see how that goes did you tier the newest packer zaire franklin former colt yes he is in average one way kind of same as drake thomas i think he's a really good uh run defender like come back and take space sideline to sideline and coverage stuff is you know and not his forte i think first of all i love you i love that we just started this with 16 minutes of linebacker ranking but it also sort of confirms my priors and that's linebackers one of those positions where as you work your way down and i have i have not watched detailed tape of as many guys as you have i would never pretend that i have but like once you even get past like five or six you're just like it starts to feel like a grab bag like it starts to feel like it's going to depend very heavily on the most recent season like it's just it's one of those positions like i said where i think there's a high degree of volatility i couldn't agree like that's the last thing I'll say tier one to three I feel really really good about those guys and tier three was like you know Aziz Alshair, Zach Vaughn guys who I think are pretty good even if they're not stars I think that tier four even where you've got some good players like Spillane and Dean that is where it gets to me of like still good players but probably more dependent on situation than some of the guys above them all right William I'm sorry you had to wait but I think we did the question justice beller what's our next one all right anyone who's upset that their question doesn't make it into this episode you can just blame the 17 minutes and 42 second timer that i'm looking at right now that we just spent on that question from william rob gross your question is getting into this episode and your question is at various times this offseason in regard to young qbs certain statistical outliers have been handled in different ways specifically excuse me i can think of three stats that have been brought up by you guys are similar pods caleb williams incredible sack avoidance rate, Drake May's tight throw completion percentage, and Cam Ward's EPA per play on sacks.

20:19For Williams and May, they are discussed as things to build around as though they are expected to remain outliers, but for Ward, the assumption seems to be that it cannot be that bad again. Is there any specific reason to believe some outlier stats will remain especially high or low while others are assumed to regress to the mean beyond simply optimism that good things remain good and bad things get better? First of all, optimism is a great thing. Optimism is wonderful. Secondly, Dave, take it away. What do you think here? I like the spirit of the question, and I think it's a good point. Every year around this time, I mean, we have so many months of dead air to fill where you're just projecting with not a whole lot of new information.

21:00And I do think there's a tendency to hand wave away the stuff that you don't like and get really excited about the stuff that you do like. I think everybody has a tendency to do that. I will say in the instances that Rob brought up, like the easiest one to talk about for me is Drake May and his tight throw completion percentage where, okay, what else is going on around the quarterback that might influence that? Drake May put up those numbers with a pretty forgettable receiver core. I mean, Stefan Diggs was, I'll admit, better than I thought he would be, but he's not the Stefan Diggs that blew up with Josh Allen six, seven years ago.

21:44Like, I mean, Stefan Diggs used to be on the short list of best receivers in the entire league, and that's just not the case anymore. And even if A.J. Brown is not that anymore, or even if he's exiting his prime, he's still a vast improvement over what Drake May has been playing with. And specifically, A.J. Brown was top 10 in the league in receptions of footballs that had a 50 percent or lower completion probability. He had 18 catches on 48 targets for 400 yards and four touchdowns on balls that had less than a 50 percent chance to be completed. He's also third in the last year. Yeah, this was just the down year for him.

22:25He was. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Not even not even A.J.'s best year. Like I, I said to be diplomatic that AJ is exiting his prime. Like I'm, I'm all in on AJ Brown blowing up with Drake may like, I absolutely think he's got gas in the tank. He was third in the league last year in tight window receptions and next gen stats classifies that as a reception with less than a yard of space. So he caught 15 balls for 265 yards when he had less than a yard of space. So and and that let's be honest, that is in a run heavy offense with a quarterback who will just say is not as audacious as Drake May. And so you mix A.J.

23:07Brown's natural ability with what Drake May has already proven he's willing to do and what he's good at. Then I think you're cooking with gas. And so I think there's a very there's a very logical reason why you might assume some of that stuff. The Caleb Williams thing is interesting because I think it's easy to assume he'll keep doing that because his athleticism is so impressive. But I do think it's worth mentioning that the Bears offensive line is going to get shaken up this year between the uncertainty at left tackle and the change at center. I don't think you can assume that quite as easily.

23:40The Cam Ward one, I think it's really I love Cam Ward, but I don't think it has to get better because it can't get worse. It's more like it has to get better or else Cam Ward might not be a playable franchise quarterback. It's not really I'm not assuming it's going to get better. It just has to get better or else we have to have a different conversation about Cam Ward. Like it's more of an ultimatum than an assumption. Right. We're trying to like say that he will be a, you know, maybe not good quarterback next year.

24:14Dave Helman: But in the world where he's fine next year, this gets fixed to some degree. So like you're kind of making it in that way. I took this a couple of different ways. I think with the May thing, and even the way that Caleb moves in and escapes sacks, I kind of took it as some of these things that feel outliery, like obviously May completing that many passes, Caleb escaping that many sacks. I think it's a matter of like, is that fake or did they just do it to such an extreme degree that is unreliable? They probably did do it to such an extreme degree that is unreliable. But these are skills that these players have proven.

24:46Dave Helman: Coming out of college, Drake May was exceptionally accurate, especially into tight windows. And he proved that as a rookie and he proved it again this year. And so like, will it stay at the same rate? I don't know. But like you said, now that he has Romeo Dubs and A.J. Brown, maybe it can. Like the situational factors are like fighting off the regression to some degree. With Caleb Williams, sure, that will probably come down to earth a little bit. But he is a special mover in terms of the way that he can avoid sacks. And I think his internal clock is getting better. And so even if he's not like the best in the league at it next year, I still expect it to be like a pretty reliable trait for him.

25:21Dave Helman: Cam Ward, I think it's it's kind of two things. One, he might always be like a higher sack player and like prone to some to some silly stuff, because I think he's a player that he's a creative player outside the pocket. Like he wants to go and do stuff, but he plays a little bit loose with the ball in terms of his ball handling. And he has small hands. Drake May kind of has this issue. Drake May does a better job of getting back towards the line of scrimmage and doesn't take like nine yard sacks the way that Cam Ward does. But some of the fumbles, some of the like proclivity to holding onto the ball, I do think that you see some of that with Ward.

25:56Dave Helman: At the same time, my where I would say that maybe it probably will get better with Ward. Sometimes rookie quarterbacks specifically just have a split that is disgustingly bad and not representative of how they're going to be moving forward. And the one that I would point to really is Joe Burrow and his deep ball. When Joe Burrow was a rookie on passes of 25 yards, he was 2 of 26. 2 of 26. It's the worst in the decade. 7 % completion. And I don't think anyone watched that and was like, Joe Burrow isn't capable of completing a deep pass. We all saw what he was able to do at LSU. I think it was just a matter of sometimes there's something a rookie doesn't understand in their first season, whether it's timing, whether it's like weird chemistry with their receivers or not understanding how to throw certain routes.

26:51Dave Helman: And I think with Cam Ward, it could just be a matter of like, yeah, he's going to learn that his internal clock is going to have to be a little bit different. And so, again, I'm not saying he's going to have quite the turnaround that Caleb Williams had this year, but I would expect it to get some degree better in 2026. thinking back on the drake may thing i just we've lived this with other quarterbacks dac comes to mind where a regression for drake may is probably the stats looking exactly the same but he throws 14 picks one year and everybody's like what the hell happened to drake may it's like no he's throwing all the same stuff he always throws he just had some shitty luck this year it happens.

27:30Right.

27:30Dave Helman: This year, one bounced off of Kyle Williams' fingertips and got picked. Okay. What are you going to do about that? All right. We got plenty more questions coming your way, but first we're going to take our first quick break. Summer can smell like so many things. For example, citrus in the sun, spontaneous road trips, and warm backyard evenings that stretch on forever. It's a feeling you want to hold onto long after the season ends. With Pura's summer fragrance collection, you can. Restore your sense of place, bringing the moments that define your summer right into your home, exactly the way you remember them.

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30:10All right, Beller, let's get to the next question. all right here we go q's girl chimes in she says the mention of terrell prior's random 1000 yard season reminded me that he also holds the record for the longest qb touchdown run what are your favorite or oddest records held by more obscure players derrick what do you got for this one

30:29Dave Helman: the first one that popped into my mind is nick foals having a seven touchdown game uh in 2012 or 13 or whatever that was against against the raiders him having or having now tied the record there are a couple of guys who have done that but Nick Foles being in that category of like I think Peyton Manning's done it I think Tom Brady has done it like it's ridiculous that Nick Foles of all people is there which leads me to like a small take that I've had about Nick Foles before where I think and Dave I would love your opinion on this he is the most volatile quarterback in NFL history because he's had the highs of the seven touchdown game that entire season with the Eagles was kind of crazy and then he has the Super Bowl run with the Eagles but also other times that we've seen him, whether it's with the Chiefs or the Jaguars, he's been like one of the worst starting quarterbacks I've ever seen in my entire life.

31:17Dave Helman: The vacillations with him are, I can't really remember another player like that. It's so wild to look back on the 2013 season specifically, where Nick Foles just randomly threw for 27 touchdowns and only two picks, led the league in quarterback rating and then was never remotely that good again. Yep. Until he was leading the Eagles to a Super Bowl. I remember when Wentz got hurt in that Rams game in 2017, he came in and he played really well in the first game against the Giants. And then he looked awful the next week. The Eagles beat the Raiders, but he just looked terrible. And I remember that day, like that after that game, even though they won, it was like the Eagles are so boned.

32:09Like I, it sucks so bad for them that they're going to be like one and done in the playoffs. And then the most improbable run we've ever seen happen. And yeah, like other than those two all time great moments. What, what else, what else did you see from Nick Foles across all those other stops? I, I, I think you're probably onto something there. It's definitely crazy. It's one of the most unique NFL careers ever. Yeah, unique is, yeah, understatement with that guy. I had a hard time coming up with records. I just pulled some weird stats and one-offs that I really love. Here's one. Since the 1970 merger, 11 players have led their team in rushing and passing on the season.

32:54And the vast majority of those names are guys that would not surprise you at all, Like Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Cam Newton, Randall Cunningham. Like the vast majority of those guys make all the sense in the world. The 11th guy, Derek, Ryan Fitzpatrick. Wait, was it the Bucs year? It was the Dolphins year. Oh, 2019 Dolphins.

33:20Dave Helman: Oh, my God. Ryan Fitzpatrick led the 2019 Dolphins in rushing. It's absolutely heinous. that is gross that there is he's how old he's got to be the oldest player to do that for that's a great point i mean yeah he was he was late in his career at that point in time yeah he ran for 243 yards the dolphins running backs were mark walton kenyan drake patrick laird and kaylin balage oh and miles gaskin can't forget him my good lord uh this one gets thrown around all the time but it never fails to make me smile. Jim Harbaugh has more career rushing yards than Bo Jackson. That one's an old timer. I actually thought that's who you were going to say when you were like the 11th guy.

34:05Dave Helman: I honestly thought it was going to be Jim Harbaugh. And then again, this isn't a record, but it is something that'll never happen again. Sometimes I just stop and marvel at the fact that a kicker won NFL MVP 1982 Mark Mosley. And I just wanted to share the stats with you. If you were curious, he played for Washington. He went 20 of 21 on field goals for the season. That's not even that many. It was a strike shortened season, to be fair. But 20 of 21, he was 16 of 19 with his extra points. His long on the year was 48. And he didn't even attempt a kick from 50 plus. I mean, it's amazing how far we've come with kicking.

34:52And it's also amazing that that won an NFL MVP. That'll never happen again.

34:57Dave Helman: No, that will never happen again. Like, never mind some of the, like, you know, 48 yard is his longest. Game has changed a lot. Kickers have really developed. Missing three extra points out of 19 attempts, you would be cut. You would not last the season. Like, that's crazy. Like, if you put up that stat line today, people would be like, yeah, I mean, he's pretty good, I guess. I guess we don't need to draft a kicker this year. mm-hmm god that's funny all right baller what's our next one all right the next one is from boogie boogie says in honor of the u.s men's national team disappearing in a high stakes game with even higher expectations what is a memory you have of a team either in a game or full season completely disappearing when you look forward to it leaving a terrible taste in your mouth could be due to injury improper game plan whatever my nominee is the 2015 panthers in the super bowl based on their vibes and actual on-field expectations going into that game, but I would also shout out the year one Rogers Jets or the 2013 Broncos in the Super Bowl.

35:56Three good candidates. I forget who we're at. Derek, what do you say on this one?

36:00Dave Helman: So I'm actually glad they brought up the 2015 Panthers because I actually have a different game for that season. To me, it's the 2015 NFC Championship game with the Panthers and the Cardinals. Going into that game in that playoffs, I thought that matchup was going to be a battle of titans those teams were insane the cardinals defense was great carson palmer was you know cam ran away with the mvp that year but like carson palmer played about as well as you possibly could have um and he was like i think in the mvp discussions they were awesome and then carson palmer gets like i think he had like a hand or thumb injury like right a couple of games before that game they just show up against the panthers and it's not close like the panthers beat them like 45 to 19 the game is never closed that is a game in season where that Cardinals team deserved better I still think the Panthers like obviously deserved what they got but they deserve to at least have had a shot in that game and then it kind of sucked too because like Palmer never really reached that high again you know he was already back end of his career but the next two seasons just never really got there so that one kind of sticks in my mind um most of these are injury by the way the 22 nfc championship game where every 49ers quarterback died like that they were the better team that year that year in that game they were the better team i thought and the fact that they had to go down to like literally having christian mcafree take snaps was like that it's just obscene i just hate that and i don't care who wins the game but what like purdy got hurt like on the first or second series and like it's similar to what happened with the broncos and the Patriots this year it just sucks I mean Broncos and Patriots you knew going in what the score was but like it's it sucks when before the game can even get off the ground you're just like well this is not what I was looking forward to all week this sucks yeah we were robbed of like a legitimately great game and I say the Niners are the better team the Eagles were obviously still good enough to have won that game but like it would have been cooler if the Niners were at full strength and then the Eagles won you know like we were just robbed of what I think could have been a very good game.

38:02Dave Helman: A recent one, the 2024 Lions season deflating the way it did with their defense being banged up and getting 45 hung on them by the commanders at home. I thought that was pretty tough. Obviously, that's like partly injury, but I think they probably could have had a better game plan for that game. And then the one that is not really injury, but did really deflate a special season, the 2018 Rams getting blanked in the Super Bowl by the Patriots was just Like, oh, that one, like for how cool that season was to get blank that way was tough. When I think back on past Super Bowl, it's like we're in an era where for the most part, you can count on the Super Bowl being a pretty entertaining game.

38:41I mean, even like the Seahawks dominated the Patriots, but even the first half was really entertaining and close. And every time I think back on it over the last like 10, 15 years, you just have to be like, well, 2018 sucked out loud. Like there's just, there's no redeeming qualities about that game. Right. Cause even some of the other Superbowls that were not competitive. Okay. The play that McCourtney McCourty made, like getting back to the end zone to break, like that's one of the coolest plays of all time. So I guess that's redeeming, but like in general, a really shitty Superbowl.

39:14Dave Helman: Right. Cause it's like, it's so low scoring. It felt like a slog where at least like, honestly, like the, um, like the Seahawks blowing out the the Broncos that obviously is not a competitive game but it was such a throttling of like an all time offense that it was kind of a spectacle whereas like Rams Patriots was not really a spectacle it felt like also even like a beatdown is more entertaining than that because like when the Seahawks beat down the Broncos you get the Percy Harvin return you get the Malcolm Smith pick six we had the amazing spoon strip sack uchinonuosu fumble return like that shit's fun even if it's not an entertaining game you still get some like breathtaking moments where yeah outside of the mccourty breakup in that 13 to 3 game just gross uh you're nicer than me which is not something i say often because the spirit the spirit of the question from boogie was talking about the USMNT who wet the bed.

40:15Like, even if they had lost to Belgium, that's fine. They played like shit. They like they they looked like they didn't belong on the field after having this very nice run through the tournament up to that point. So my answers are teams that wet the bed. And I'm not doing this to be mean to you, Derek. But first up is the 2019 Ravens. Oh, yeah. What are we doing? 12 pro bowlers unanimous mvp lamar jackson is like anointed as the ruler of the sport titans didn't just beat them they wiped them off the field yeah ryan ryan tannahill didn't have a hundred passing yards in that game didn't lamar jackson complete like less than half of his passes in that game i think yes and the ravens didn't score a touchdown until the early fourth quarter when it was 28 to six.

41:06Dave Helman: Because that was a game where Dean Pease was still their defensive coordinator. And, you know, Dean Pease was a little bit ahead of the curve. I'm like, we're just going to throw a bunch of blitzes and do a bunch of crazy shit. And at the time, Lamar Jackson just didn't really have good answers for that. And it was, I think he played better in that game than the numbers suggest. But that offense and that team just had no shot for most of that game. You go 14 and two and your quarterback is the unanimous MVP. Like even today, when we talk about that season, every time it comes up, I'm just like, ah, Yeah, but you went over in the playoffs.

41:38Derek Henry ran for 195 yards and threw a touchdown to Corey Davis. I went back and watched it last night when I knew we were doing this. It was just a, just a mauling. Like it's not supposed to have, like you think about playoff football in Baltimore. Like that's not supposed to happen to you. And then the other one is near and dear to my heart. since we expanded the playoffs to seven teams number two seeds are nine and one against number seven seeds in the playoff the margin of victory is 14 points like for the most part the two verse seven game has been largely unnecessary except the 2023 cowboys getting boat raced at home by the Green Bay Packers.

42:24Just, I mean, Dak was in the MVP conversation that year. Parsons was all pro, had 14 sacks. Daron Bland set the pick six record. It really looked like they had a chance to make some noise. And then the Packers put up an EPA per play of 0.41. They scored touchdowns on six of their nine possessions and two of their three punts were in garbage time just a dismantling the likes of which I've never seen and it was like obvious from the first possession like oh shit the Cowboys did not show up for this game uh that one

43:01Dave Helman: is a great one because I remember that weekend specifically or that week of NFL playoffs specifically because Jordan Love did that to the Cowboys and then in the same I think it was the same round cj stroud eviscerated the cleveland browns and it was like two similar style of defenses two quarterbacks that were like kind of up and coming and we were excited about and they they played like the same game which i thought was like a funny funny thing at least the browns were dealing with the flacco magic and it's like okay this is fun but like the ride's gonna stop somewhere where i'd like theoretically it sounds silly to say now but you had a quarterback playing on an MVP shortlist level and the defense was what it was.

43:43I mean, I'm not saying the Cowboys should have won the Super Bowl that year, but it should have been more than getting embarrassed by the seven seed in your own house. That loss broke the fan base for, I think they're only just now coming out of it, and it's been like three or four years.

43:59Dave Helman: Which, you know, maybe there's some case of like, oh, Cowboys fans are dramatic sometimes. I didn't realize they were the only two seed that has lost to a seven seed. I did not realize that. There have only been like two or three close games in that matchup. You know, like the Bills had the Bills struggled with the Dolphins a few years ago in the two versus seven game. But like for the most part, it's been a dog walking. And I mean, that one was too. It was just the seven seed doing the dog walking. All right, Beller, what's our next one? All right. Josh Hamilton has our next question. Josh asks, would an average quarterback who could not be rattled and has a perfect internal clock be good?

44:38So this quarterback always knows exactly how much time he has to throw. Does that make the 20th best quarterback 10th best 15th best in what circumstances would this quarterback be most useful? Dave, what do you got for this one? Am I crazy? If I think this quarterback would be incredible. This makes him like 2020 drew breeze. Maybe I'm, maybe I'm like being too, I'm giving too much leeway from the question, but you're telling me perfect internal clock. and cannot be rattled, which to me cannot be rattled means you're not going to be rattled by the environment. You're not going to be rattled by blitzes.

45:17You're not going to be rattled by sim pressures. If you're if you cannot be rattled, that means nothing that's coming at you is going to be a surprise. And you always know how much time you have to throw. Yeah, I think like late career Drew Brees is a perfect answer to this question, Derek. And like, you know, maybe late career Drew Brees wasn't quite as good as 2009 to 2011 Drew Brees, but like still a very, very good quarterback, like a guy that can take you to the brink of the Super Bowl. Like, that's what I came away with.

45:51Dave Helman: Yeah. And like, you know, maybe maybe part of the question, too, is like I think maybe I'm thinking of it to maybe to like, you know, physically average, because by that point, Drew Brees obviously was he was towards the back end of his career, whereas earlier Drew Brees, you know, I think had a cannon. And so I was trying to imagine a quarterback who like is more close to average physically. And I was like, Mac Jones is probably this, you know, he's like an average quarterback physically does a couple of things. Well, he's relatively accurate. But if you told me Mac Jones was even more perfect in terms of his like internal clock and was not rattled by blitzes whatsoever.

46:26Dave Helman: Yeah, that's a top 10 quarterback. Like if he was who he was accuracy wise and, you know, physically and all that stuff, but he didn't get sacked really and didn't freak out against pressure. Yeah, that's a top 10 quarterback. I think the in reality version of Mac Jones went five and three and looked pretty good for the 49ers. So if you tell me he always knows when he needs to get rid of the ball and he's never rattled by what the defense is trying to do to him. Yeah, we're winning 12 plus games with that guy. I feel pretty good about that, assuming the roster around him is remotely good. All right, Beller, what's next?

47:06All right, this one comes to us from Headline Plays. Headline wants to do some work for running backs. He says, if you could save one running back throughout history from a horrible environment and put him in an excellent one, think James Cook and what he gets to do in Buffalo right now, who would it be? Steven Jackson escaping some horrid St. Louis squads is the first one that comes to mind for me. Derek, what do you got on this one?

47:27Dave Helman: Yeah, so I wanted to just briefly talk about a couple of literal applications of this that we saw. Todd Gurley being saved in L.A. is exactly what this looks like, where that Jeff Fisher team by 2016 was just pitiful, and Sean McVay comes in and saves him. Obviously, Saquon Barkley going to the Eagles is also a version of that. I would say I have two answers. I have an older one and then a current one in the NFL. current one is obviously saving devon hn from uh from the current version of the dolphins if he could go play for like this year's chargers that would be like that that would just be phenomenal like if he you know because everyone's excited about like oh keaton mitchell can be bud light devon hn for mike mcdaniel it's like well it'd be pretty cool if they could just have the real one don't mike mcdaniel doesn't need your help leaning into the bit derek i listen i i as Devon Achan, I love him because you know this, Dave, there are not that many undersized players I truly love.

48:24Dave Helman: I think Devon Achan is like a special talent. And so for him, I would like him to be saved and not have to waste a year on this Miami team. I really love finding out which small players you actually like. That's useful knowledge. It's pretty much him and a couple of fire hydrant linebackers. That's about it. And then the old running back that I did have, And this one is tough because I think maybe he was just never as good as we thought coming out of college and also had a bunch of injury issues. Darren McFadden potentially playing for like other better teams rather than being stuck on some of those horrid Raiders offenses for a while.

49:00Dave Helman: That could have that could have been something that could have been cool. Man, you just brought back a great memory of an otherwise shit season. 2015 Dallas. This is last hurrah. Yeah. Romo breaks his collarbone in week two and the season was a disaster from there. But like the one bright spot was Darren McFadden running for 1100 yards behind that line. And like you could tell that the juice was quickly running out. But I was happy to see him have that moment. And yeah, like if he had if he had gotten to Dallas a few years earlier, obviously they had DeMarco Murray. They didn't really need him before then.

49:37But like he could have he could have drastically had a different career if he had gotten out of Oakland faster.

49:44Dave Helman: But but that's funny, too, because like DeMarco Murray is is kind of like the blueprint for what it could have looked like for Darren McFadden, where it's just like big, strong, fast kind of straight line guy. That is exactly what it could have looked like if Darren McFadden had not been stuck in some of those situations. That's I like that a lot. And I I don't remember the last time I thought about the 2015 Cowboys. So thank you for that. I'm always going to skew toward older guys. It's just, it's July. It's fun to remember some guys. That's what I want to do. And the guy that I settled on, it would be too easy to say, let's get Barry Sanders out of Detroit in the late nineties and like, let him be somewhere great.

50:22Obviously that would be really fun, but that's too easy. The guy I landed on one of the all time forgotten, awesome players, in my opinion. And he did get his flowers at the end of the at the end of his career because Corey Dillon goes to New England in 2004 and at the age of 30 runs for 1600 yards and 12 touchdowns for a Patriots team that wins the Super Bowl. But Derek, from 1997 to 2002, Corey Dillon averaged 1 ,250 yards a year for a Bengals team that went 26 and 70 during that stretch. My God. Corey Dillon got into the league at the age of 23 in 1997. The Bengals went 7 and 9. they didn't sniff a record that good again until 2003 so the prime of this man's career was wasted on three four and two win bengals teams that were just horrendous and he was still awesome anyway like he was he was putting up 12 and 1300 yard seasons every year for like five or six years in a row and like i said he got his flowers in the end he got his super bowl ring but But I mean, imagine that talent on a team that was good.

51:48If like if he was doing that year over year for a team that was making the playoffs, how people would talk about Corey Dillon.

51:55Dave Helman: That would be a guy who probably would have had, yeah, like four more Pro Bowls, maybe an All-Pro at some point. Like that what you just described for like that early stage is like Sisyphus as a running back where it's just like, man, you're doing everything you can. And then the rock resets and you're back to like a four and 12 looking at looking down the barrel of a four and 12 season again. And you know what? One must imagine Sisyphus happy, but there's no way a running back Sisyphus is happy just getting the shit beat out of you every year. Corey Dillon, when he got to New England, he had 1865 touches on his legs.

52:27That's a lot of tread. 1865 touches of just slog for a bad team. So that's who I would like to rescue is Corey Dillon. All right, we're going to take one more quick break and then we'll be back with a couple more of your questions.

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54:17All right, Beller, what do we got? All right, an interesting one from Patrick Ahern. I like this, a little thought experiment on reversing the way a player's career went in terms of what good was, what the bad was. Let me just read it. Patrick Ahern, if you reversed Matthew Stafford's career, would you feel as strongly about his Hall of Fame case? So we're saying like the Rams stuff comes first and the Lions stuff comes second. So five or so peak years with an MVP Super Bowl, one All-Pro, two Pro Bowls to start his career. That is followed up by 10 to 12 years of good, if not consistently amazing play for a team that was mostly bad to decent.

54:52In that second stage, just one Pro Bowl, no other real postseason recognition. perhaps the top three or four quarterback in his first few years, but never really approaches it after that. So obviously this makes this complicated, but would we feel differently about Matthew Stafford as he heads toward the end of his career? If we took the ramp stuff, put it at the beginning, the line stuff, put it at the end. Dave, what do you say on this one? I'm going to start this out by saying I'm not a hundred percent ready to have an opinion on Matthew Stafford's hall of fame candidacy. Like at this point, we're close enough to the end and the expectations on the Rams are high enough that I think it's just smart to wait and see what happens.

55:33Like, I don't really have a concrete opinion yet. And I say that off the jump because I think I'm about to sound like a Matthew Stafford fanboy. That's the conclusion that I came to when I started prepping for this question. So I'll preface it that way. But my gut reaction to this question is, I don't really think it's fair to just flip it that way because it removes so much key context from Matthew Stafford's career. And I think context is so important because, yeah, if Stafford had landed on a great team at 23 years old and won a few Super Bowls and then over the next decade plus just sort of drifted off somewhere else and wasn't really relevant again.

56:19And I think that raises a lot of critical questions of like, well, why is that the case? What team did you go to? How committed is the team to winning? What role did you play in elevating that team? Especially as you're getting older and more experienced in football, I expect an older, more experienced quarterback to have that elevating effect more so than I demand that of a younger player. now remember what actually happened. Matthew Stafford was drafted to be the savior of a team that had just gone 0-16. Very, I mean, very much Trevor Lawrence to the Jags and Joe Burrow to the Bengals type stuff where people were debating, like, should this team even be allowed to draft Matthew Stafford?

57:08Like, they're just going to ruin his career. So he goes into that situation where he is expected to be the savior. And mind you, at the age of 23, he threw 40 touchdowns and got the Lions to the playoffs. He had seven straight 4 ,000 plus yard seasons in his 20s on a team that, yes, they had Megatron. Yes, they had some talent at various times, but the Lions were never like a well-rounded team. In Matthew Stafford's 12 years in Detroit, they had a top half of the league defense three times in 12 years. It's a low bar, too. Yeah, I don't give a shit about top 10, just top half of the league three times in 12 years.

57:53And two of the three times they made the playoffs. Like, Matthew Stafford had a hand in dragging some mid-teams to the postseason in the early stages of his career. So and then obviously he gets traded to what has become one of the most consistently well run teams in the NFL. They surround him with talent. They do all this crazy shit to trade for veterans that can get them over the top. And he plays a role in elevating all of that. I just think that's key context of like, OK, when you're a young learning player, what did it look like? And what hand did you have in elevating things? Whereas I think it's a completely different situation if he has all of that success on a great team at the age of 24 and can never quite duplicate it.

58:42Like, does that sound fair at all? I just think I think the context of it is all too important to just say, well, if you flip it, it's not as good.

58:51Dave Helman: Well, so it's interesting. I think you actually bring up a lot of good points in terms of like the context and yeah, aging player, like how we perceive what early success and like what role an older player should be having, I think is a really good one. I also in my mind, I was like, if in the first five years of Stafford's career, he had an MVP and won the Super Bowl, we would give him more grace for some of the bad and mediocre seasons that his teams had later on. Like, I think we would do a lot more of like this team and organization is clearly griefing a very good quarterback. And I think we did some of that when he was in Detroit.

59:28Dave Helman: Like, we knew that he was like a relatively talented first overall pick. He had some moments and we did a little bit of that. But I think if we had seen the highs beforehand, I think we would be more willing to be like there are clearly other factors at play here and give him probably a little bit more grace there. I think the other thing that I would say as it relates to his Hall of Fame case, even if you flipped it in this case, and like, let's say we flip it and he's still got two more years to go and all his numbers are the same. If he plays 25 more games over the next two seasons, he will probably end his career third in passing yards ever.

1:00:03Dave Helman: And I know that like volume is inflated now compared to the way it was, you know, 20, 30 years ago. So third all time, given that he has an MVP and a Super Bowl on his resume, that probably is enough, even if like obviously eight, nine of these years were like kind of middling by objective standards. the other point I would make which I'm glad you brought up talking about winning early if Matthew Stafford and I think not to knock him but like Drake May is going to benefit from this as we move forward like if Matthew Stafford had achieved those highs on a more competent team early in his career he would have earned a lot more pro bowl designations and potentially some all pro designations I was thinking about this when I was getting ready for the question.

1:00:48Keep in mind, and I know it's easy to look at Pro Bowls and All-Pros and say, well, he was never one of the three or four best quarterbacks in the league. Matthew Stafford was in year seven by the time Peyton Manning retired from football. He actually had to beat Tom Brady in 2021 to get to the Super Bowl that launched his Hall of Fame candidacy. and he was ending his career in Detroit when Drew Brees retired. Oh, by the way, he shared a division with Aaron Rodgers for the entirety of his Lions tenure. So is he not as good as people want to make him out to be, or was he sharing space with titans of the game for literally his entire career?

1:01:33And if the timing of that was different, like is Matthew Stafford not good because Aaron Rodgers ate up all of those Pro Bowls and all pro designations. I don't necessarily think I agree with that. Yeah. And so, and if he had gotten to that point early in his career, maybe he snatches some of those away instead of toiling away in obscurity for a bunch of seven and nine, nine and seven teams. All right, Beller, I think we got time for like one more. We got time for one more. And you know what? Let's stay on the Stafford theme or at least part of the Stafford theme and focus this one on the Detroit Lions.

1:02:10This one comes to us from Kevin Aumiller. And Kevin says, in the heralded Lions 2023 draft, they entered with the number six pick and were widely thought to be targeting Devin Witherspoon because of a huge need at cornerback and maximum kneecap biting potential. When Witherspoon was surprisingly taken at five by the Seahawks, they moved down to take Jameer Gibbs, unquestionably a great pick. But was he the best pick? Because in the moment I was shocked, they didn't fill the cornerback need and take Christian Gonzalez. Three years later, I asked the athletic football show Brain Trust. With what we know now, would the Lions have been better off taking Christian Gonzalez sticking at six rather than trading down for Jameer Gibbs?

1:02:48Derek, I know you love Christian Gonzalez. I'm going to let you take this one first.

1:02:53Dave Helman: I actually still think Jameer Gibbs is the right pick. And corner is generally more valuable. And obviously, this is a team that, at least at the time, ran a ungodly amount of man coverage. And Christian Gonzalez is very, very good at that. I would argue that to me, it is very important for teams to have like a clear identity and like a clear weapon that they are wielding. And for the Lions, it was offense and explosive playmaking potential. Jameer Gibbs gives that to them in a way that is very special. He is like the ultimate angle eraser. I think he does an unbelievable job, both run and pass.

1:03:28Dave Helman: And obviously his rookie year specifically took a little bit of an on-ramp, but he has become a very integral part of what has pretty consistently been a, if not top five offense, even last year it was like eighth or ninth in a down year for them, in part because when that guy gets a sliver of space, he can make a play happen. Christian Gonzalez is obviously awesome and like he played phenomenal in the Super Bowl I think he's a very very good player um but I don't necessarily think that I would outright say that Gonzalez would have been the better pick like I think them landing with Gibbs like it has made their offense such a unique demon to have to to have to handle Derek you said earlier in the show you loved this guy so much what if the Lions had drafted Gonzo in the first round of the 2023 draft and then used pick 68 which they originally spent on hendon hooker on devon hn that would be if you could guarantee me that outcome yes but then i think we i think this becomes like a too many different dominoes have to fall oh that's why situation draft revisits are the best because it just branches off into 250 different universes because i would say to you that the only issue i have with that is like we're comparing jameer gibbs and christian gonzalez who i think by anybody's account were both like top 20 prospects in that class whereas i think devon h and for as much as i even loved him in that class and obviously love him now as an nfl player i don't think anybody really thought that he was like a top 40 player i think a lot of people thought because of the size because of some of the potential limitations that he was going to fall a little bit and so i think it makes it hard to compare a little bit at that point but like if you could guarantee me that outcome where especially because that even too is not just that you're getting as comparable players Jameer Gibbs in that world you're guaranteeing me that they don't completely waste a third round pick on a quarterback who never saw the field like that's like another added value um and so that would have been if you could guarantee me that outcome that is definitely better but uh again I think given what given the information we had at the time and and what they've become I still think that Gibbs was like a pretty damn good pick my boring answer is I think this is a situation where I think Gibbs is is the right pick right now but this is a situation where the jury can be out for a decade like I know the cliche is revisit the draft in three years and you'll have your answer and in a lot of cases that's true when you're trying to figure out if a player was worth the pick or if a player is a good NFL player but for stuff like this where you're talking about two of the best players in the league at their respective positions these are situations where the jury can be out for a long long time i agree with you derrick jameer gibbs is one of the reasons the lions feel unique in the nfl like jameer gibbs is that lethality that angle eraser anything can happen at any given moment and if the lions are going to win a super bowl i would assume that explosiveness and game-changing ability is going to be a big part of it.

1:06:39Like they would be a team that that's going to win a Super Bowl because of a top five offense more so than transforming their defense into the best in the league. I mean, I guess that's possible, but this would be my assumption.

1:06:51Dave Helman: Right. And like, I think Gonzalez is great. I don't know if Gonzalez alone would have changed those lines defenses to being like, you know, Eagles level Seahawks level, like what we saw over the last hand. And maybe he would have like, he's great, but I don't know if they would have got there. The reason I bring it up though, I have personal experience with this. I thought about it immediately when I saw the question. 2016, the Cowboys draft Zeke Elliott fourth overall, and Jalen Ramsey goes one pick later. And that was the debate between, like that's who the Cowboys were debating between in their war room on draft night.

1:07:26And first three years, I mean, Jalen Ramsey was incredible right off the bat. Don't get me wrong, but Zeke was the rushing champion two of his first three years in the league. The Cowboys made the divisional round two of his first three years in the league. And if they were going to win a Super Bowl in that build, it was off the strength of their unbelievable running game. And obviously it didn't happen. And Zeke wore down faster than you would prefer a top five pick at running back to do. And Jalen Ramsey is still making Pro Bowls in 2025. He's three-time first team All-Pro, eight-time whatever Pro Bowler.

1:08:04And so in 2018, you're like, ah, maybe, maybe this was the right call all along. And in 2025, you're like, ah, Jalen Ramsey gave you a decade of pro bowl caliber play. Like maybe over a long enough timeline, that was the right decision.

1:08:21Dave Helman: That one is tougher because, because too, like Gibbs and Gonzalez were great prospects. They were not elite, like some of the best that we've ever seen at their position type of prospects, whereas Zeke and Jalen Ramsey were truly like, it might be four years before I see another player as good as them at this position. And so that one is a little bit tough, especially with how good Zeke's early year was. That one, I think I'm more willing to obviously hear the case for Ramsey because at the time, it's not even just the hindsight of Zeke obviously falling off and running backs doing what they do once they get closer to 30.

1:08:53Dave Helman: It's that I think that because that can actually be true of corners as well, like corners by the time you get close to like 29, 30, 10 to fall off. But Ramsey felt like an exception because even coming out of college, people were like, oh, he could just play safety and be an all-prunt. Yeah, because of the flexibility, for sure. Right, and I think that's part of why he's been able to age the way that he has. It's like, oh, he can just play nickel. He can play safety until he's 33 if he really wants to. And I think that on top of the physical profile with Ramsey, that one I might have been closer to Ramsey over the running back there.

1:09:23Just because of the positions they play and the way they play, I wouldn't be surprised if Gonzo is a top tier corner longer than Gibbs is a top tier running back. Right. And so that's, you know, we can revisit this and see what it looks like in five more years. But in like right now, I think the Lions should feel happy with the choice. And we'll see. We'll see how that ages from here. But I mean, if they manage to get over the hump and even into the Super Bowl, let alone winning the Super Bowl, and Jameer Gibbs is an engine of that, they should feel fine about it.

1:09:57Dave Helman: Yeah, that is a good point, though. Like, if in three years Gonzalez loses a step, it could probably still be a pretty good corner. If Jameer Gibbs loses a step in three years, he might be, like, a useful running back, but he's not the game-changer that he is. And I do think that that is a pretty big difference. So that's a good point. I love those types of questions, though, because all of a sudden you're just like, okay, the Lions don't take Gibbs. Do they still go Campbell? Like, what do they do with the 18th? Do they skip on branch? Like, do they not want to take two DBs? Like, who knows? All of a sudden, the whole thing's different.

1:10:30It was really fun. Really great mailbag, as per usual. We appreciate it. We will be back. We got another full week lined up. Plenty of good shows coming your way. Robert will be back with us. We're looking forward to it. We appreciate it. We'll talk to you all soon. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating.

1:10:51Dave Helman: We'll see you next time.

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