Which outliers in the 2026 class are worth drafting?

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1:19Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Today, we're talking about the peculiarities of the 2026 NFL Draft. The overall quality of this class, I think, is up for debate. We have that debate to an extent at the top of this show with me, Derek Lassen, and Dave Hellman. But I think there are a couple more layers to this discussion. We talked about one of those today. At the top of this draft, even if there are players that we like, and players that we like that extend into the back half of the first round, into the second round, into the third round, it really does feel like on multiple levels, we're going to be forced to make compromises, or teams are going to be forced to make compromises in this draft on certain outlier prospects that they might not have to in a typical year.

2:00Robert Mays: Some of that is positional. We'll talk about that a lot over the next month or so with running backs, off-ball linebackers, safeties all going potentially in the top 10. But some of it is also about physical profile, about athleticism testing, about production. So that's what we spent some time on today, talking about the guys who are top half of the first round picks but maybe have historically short arms, are small compared to other receiver prospects, are slow compared to other receiver prospects that have gone on this range. And we tried to ask a question about all these guys and project the question I think a lot of teams have to ask in these situations.

2:36Robert Mays: Why are you compromising on this player? And is he worth compromising for? It's a discussion I think we're gonna revisit a lot as we get a little bit deeper into this draft process. And it is the one that me, Derek Lassen, and Dave Hellman had a few different times today. So let's get to it.

3:01Robert Mays: so dave as we dig in today's today's topic i want to ask you a question as somebody who is coming a little bit later to the draft process and just see how you process this okay this idea of us maybe twisting ourselves in the knots a little bit to talk about this draft where it's like well you know there aren't that many superstar players there's a lot of starting caliber players and this and that. Are we just rationalizing the fact that this is a really bad draft? And are we trying to talk about it in a way that keeps ourselves interested, but in reality, it's just a really bad draft. This isn't totally rooted in the conversation we're about to have, but I wanted to ask you this right off the bat as we kind of wade into our draft process.

3:39Derrik Klassen: You know what? We didn't plan this out, but this was the last thing I was looking at before we started recording. And I'm glad, I'm glad we're starting here. Of course, you're not guaranteed to find the best players at the top of the draft. There are some first rounds that are worse than others. I'm a firm believer. There's no such thing as a bad draft. There are good players. I totally disagree with that. I disagree. What is your, how do you, what does that mean? It means that there are great players in any given draft for you to go find.

4:10Robert Mays: Three or four great players in a draft of 250 players. That is still an objectively bad draft.

4:15Derrik Klassen: Not every draft is going to be 2011, right? Right. And some drafts are 2013. It does happen. 2013. I'm so glad you said it, because this is what I was looking up. The 2013 NFL draft, which is widely panned as being this just dog shit draft with no good players, gave us Lane Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Corderell Patterson, Travis Frederick, Darius Slade, Travis Kelsey, Le 'Veon Bell. Like the list goes on and on. Of course, it's not a star studded hit after hit after hit after hit draft. draft but the players are there like the the great players are there there will be great players

4:50Robert Mays: drafted this year you just gotta find them could this be worse than the 2013 draft we use the 2013 draft as an example that's like the worst one we can remember Derek I don't know is there an even Elaine Johnson in this draft I mean I don't know I think what I was going to say is like if you have

5:07Dave Helman: to list Cordero Patterson as one of the like stars of the draft I mean I could go on and on

5:12Derrik Klassen: Teron Armstead, Keenan Allen, Tyron Matthew. I'm scrolling down more. David Bakhtiari, Kyle Juszczyk. Like there are good players in every single draft. Some are going to be more loaded than others. I would guess this is a leaner draft, but I don't, I won't get on board with the concept that this is like a draft worth writing off because somebody amazing is waiting out there to be picked by somebody. Multiple, like a lot of good players are coming out in this draft.

5:41Robert Mays: I'm not even planting a flag saying that I think that I just, again, as we kind of frame the conversation around this pool of players, I'm just wondering how much of this in your mind is us rationalizing the quality of it so we can continue to talk about it with some enthusiasm and or just ignoring the reality that's sitting in front of us. How do you feel about this, Eric?

6:02Dave Helman: It's so here's the thing. I think there are a lot of fun players in this class. Like I enjoy a lot of that. That's a curious. That's the thing. That's the thing. I think the edge class is fun. The wide receiver class is fun. How many guys do I think are like, I draft him and I expect him to be potentially a multi-time all pro, which I think if you're picking in the top 10, that's what you want. I don't know, two, maybe three. Like that's really as far as I can get. And obviously in any draft class, you're only going to really have like six or seven. But like when you're at half that number, that's a lot.

6:33Dave Helman: Draft classes are relative. Like there are good players, but if it's worse than the last 10 classes, it's a bad draft class. And I don't know if that's necessarily true, but you get what I'm saying.

6:42Derrik Klassen: I just think it's bullshit to write off an entire draft class. And like Dane and I have talked about this so many times on Building the Beast, where we're just in this perpetual stage of like, ah, it won't be next year. Next year is where all the fun's really going to happen. And then you watch next year's prospects play out a season and you find reasons to dislike them and pick them apart. And who knows, maybe 2027 really will be this incredible boon. You know, like 2021 was a special draft class. 2011 was a really, really special draft class. There are years like that where you just throw a rock and hit a Hall of Fame player.

7:20Derrik Klassen: That doesn't mean that there aren't good players this year. And even if the top 15 is less sexy than what you would prefer, I think that's fun because I think there's like no curve between pick 16 and pick like 50. Like, I think the caliber of player is very similar, like all the way through to the end of the second round. And I think there's good value on day three as well, which if you want to call that boring, you can. I think it's fun because I think it gives more teams more opportunities to find good players.

7:52Robert Mays: Here's the reason that I wanted to start this show specifically on this note, is that we're going to do a couple different shows over the next month or so, where we look at this class and the makeup of this class and some of the peculiarities around it. And I think on multiple different levels, Derek, this is a class that is full of outliers, especially at the top when you compare it to other drafts. And maybe that is a better way to talk about this. I'm not trying to throw the whole class out and be like, ah, this is bullshit. Who cares? None of these guys are worth drafting. Like, obviously, that's not true.

8:24Robert Mays: But I think on multiple different levels, even at the top of this thing, we're already making compromises with this class that we just very rarely make. And the fact that we can attack that conversation on multiple different fronts, I think, is telling. One of those fronts is positionally where some of these guys are going to be drafted, where it doesn't often happen this way. Like Jeremiah Love might be a top five pick. That just doesn't happen very often at running back. Sonny Stiles might be a top five pick. That almost never happens at off-ball linebacker. Arvo Reese, who I'll be honest, I didn't really know before talking to more people, listening to more people, that there are a lot of folks out there.

9:03And we were talking about it with Trevor Sykema this week.

9:06Robert Mays: I saw John Ledyard, who does really good work, talking about this earlier this week, that they think that Arvel Reese is an off-ball linebacker. Like, that's what he should play in the NFL. And so if that's the case, now we got two off-ball linebackers that might go in the top five. Caleb Downs is in this conversation. So positionally, that's part of it. And we're going to do an entire show, I believe, next month about this idea of positional outliers and where you draft them and why you draft them. But we're doing a different outlier show today, Derek, because there are different versions and buckets of outliers, even with the premium position players.

9:38Robert Mays: If you look at Dane's top 15, Ruben Bain, Spencer Fano, Makai Lemon, Caleb Downs, a lot of guys we're going to talk about today are outliers, even independent of what position they play. And so I think on multiple different levels, this is going to be a draft where you're picking guys outside of historical norms. You're making compromises on things you don't usually have to in the top 10. And even if the overall quality is still worthwhile, that is something that's going to permeate every discussion that we have about this.

10:07Dave Helman: So that's kind of the thing. I think if you look at the premium positions, I'm going to move out a quarterback in this class because it's basically just Fernando Mendoza and nobody else. And I don't really think he's like an outlier in any way. But the receivers, the tackles and the edges, like almost all of the each of the top three guys at those positions are it's like short arms or it's this or it's that and it's like carnell tate is is pretty clean and then i mean like that's kind of it and like david bailey's not really an outlier but like he's a little smaller than like the prototype like there's just no prototypes at those positions in a way that there usually are a couple in in like the

10:41Robert Mays: top 10 so i have a question about david bailey that i think is really important would he be the first top five pick at edge that did not wear gloves in the modern era of the NFL. He's got to be. I'm not looking that up, but it's got to be true. Just no, no gear. Yeah, it has to be. It was when I started watching him. I was just I was shocked. I was like, this is we got like a Trey Hendrickson chic out here with a top five pick. I'm not sure if I support this.

11:06Dave Helman: Like he's got the whole everything. It's a gross number.

11:09Robert Mays: Yeah. So, I mean, we're talking about, again, compromises in ways that I typically wouldn't be willing to make them. You got to make compromises in this draft. That is fair. So let's talk about some of these guys in the top 15. I want to just discuss this as a general idea, and then we can really dig into the individual players. Derek mentioned the edges, some of the tackles. Ruben Bain, I think, is the best place to start this conversation, because in a lot of ways, I mean, we did the exercise on the clock on Monday. He went second. Trevor Sikama was like, he picked him second in the entire draft.

11:41Derrik Klassen: Can I just say, I listened to that, and I just, I like applauded Trev while I was in the middle of walking my dog because with everything we know, so the big thing with Ruben Bain is the arm length. There is not a player like him. He would be the shortest arm defensive end, like taken in the first round, definitely, but one of the shortest arm length defensive ends taken in the draft going back to 1999.

12:06Robert Mays: Since 2000, he has the sixth shortest arm length in the mock draftable database for edge players. And we're talking about him as the second overall pick in this draft, according to some people.

12:17Derrik Klassen: For Trev to do it, I was just like, you know what, man? Hell yeah, because the tape rocks. And I was actually talking to somebody this week where you look at Ruben Bain. If you went to a Miami game and just watched him warming up, you would be like, what the hell are we talking about? Are you kidding me? And then watch him play football. Watch him play football and tell me you don't understand why he might get drafted that high. It's fascinating. Because if I'm just watching the cutups, if I'm watching Miami games, I'm like this guy, please. Absolutely. Before anybody else. And then it's only once you start to look at the measurables and that stuff's important.

12:51Derrik Klassen: I'm not telling you to ignore it. It's very scary. But. If there was tape, I'd be willing to bet on being the outlier. It's probably Reuben Bain. And that's why I was I was excited to hear Trev say it with his chest. Like, yeah, the tape's that good, whatever.

13:06Robert Mays: So, Derek, I want to hear your take on this with Bain specifically before I follow up with Dave, because I have a natural follow up question to that exact point.

13:16Dave Helman: When when when you watch Reuben Bain's tape, when are you worried about the arm length? Like I have I watched three, four or five games of him and at no point was I worried about the arm length. Like I this is one of the handful of guys where I am not worried about it whatsoever because of the way that he's built. Like if he was, because he's like 6 '2", 263, he's a very short, squatty, powerful, built like a fire hydrant type of defensive end, which is not typically the type of guys that go in top five. But again, it's kind of weird class. But I think because he's built that way and he's not this like 6 '3", 250, try to win around the edge.

13:51Dave Helman: I need to win with my length. I need to win with my bend type of player. I'm not that worried about the length. Like every time that he needs to get into an offensive tackle's chest, he can do it. When he needs to win inside, he can do it. anytime he takes on people in the run game, Jesus Christ, does he do it? He just mashes people in the run game. Like I watch Ruben Bain and that to me is like in a normal class, probably a top 10 player. And then in this class where it's like there's a couple of guys who or a couple of guys that are elite that are maybe missing, I'm totally fine like taking him at that too as high as Trevor did.

14:22So I guess that's where I, I don't know if hangups is the right word,

14:26Robert Mays: but when I watch it and there's like a little bit of cognitive dissonance, I think it's mostly rooted in that idea, Derek, and that if he's going to be a top five pick, he just doesn't look like a top five pick physically. Right. When we think about the guys typically drafted in the top five, and I'm not even talking about what the tape measure says. I'm talking about when you watch him play football and you think about the guys normally drafted in the top 10. There's just a gap between those two things. And again, as somebody who comes to this a little bit later and I'm sitting there and I'm imagining like a number two overall pick next to his name.

14:58Robert Mays: and then I start watching him play, there's part of me that's just like, this guy's the second overall pick. And it doesn't necessarily have anything to do with the quality of football player that we're discussing. It's just that aesthetically in so many different ways, he just doesn't look like that guy. And I was talking to Dane about this today. And there was part of me that was like, and Dane has discussed this, where there are teams that aren't in love with him. Sure. There are teams that have like real serious questions about him. And I think a lot of that doubt is rooted in this idea of, well, he doesn't look like a top five pick.

15:30Robert Mays: He doesn't look like a top 10 pick. And there are problems with that type of thinking. I think we can admit that. But I also completely understand upon watching him how teams arrive at that conclusion and concern.

15:41Derrik Klassen: It's very scary. Again, like we're not talking about an outlier like, oh, the arms are just a quarter inch of the threshold that we typically really like. And, you know, it's not a long list. Like, no, Ruben Bain is the list like that. It's a unique type of outlier when you're talking about a guy who has never like this archetype doesn't exist for a player who's a been successful and be been drafted this highly. And I mean, Dane's been saying it all year, but I can corroborate as well. Like there are there. I mean, there are teams that are going to have a great on him, a great on him, take him in the top 15 like that.

16:18Derrik Klassen: That's just a thing. And, you know, I think when you hear him talked about as like back in September, people talked about him as definitely the best player in this draft. And then by November, it's like, ah, maybe we got a little carried away, but he's still a top 10 player. Not all teams are going to agree about that. Absolutely. And I don't blame them in this instance, but and I don't think I have the guts to go with Trev and say definitively the number two pick in this draft. but I'm comfortable. Like flip on the tape of him just mauling Texas A &M, knowing that that's a Texas A &M offensive line, not with like first round studs all over their offensive line, but the majority of Texas A &M's line is going to be drafted next month.

17:04Derrik Klassen: And him and Hakeem Mesidor just whipped ass all day long in that playoff game. And you just see him do it enough times to where I have a degree of comfort there. It's very unorthodox and it's not something I've ever seen before, but the body of work kind of speaks for itself after a certain point.

17:20Dave Helman: Just like really quickly, the last thing I would say, I know these two players did not go in the first round. So like it makes it like a weird comparison, but we do have some evidence that like this body type can work when those guys have been healthy. Both Carl Lawson and Marcus Golden were like kind of built like this where they're like the 260 really short arms, really powerful, like really good run defenders. And I know that, again, that's not like the sexiest comp, but Bain is like if those guys were like nine out of 10 athletes, like Bain is significantly more explosive. He's bendy like he's that style of player can work.

17:53Dave Helman: And he's like way supercharged athletically. So like if if we're going to I don't know if we're going to sit here and do this for every player, it's like which side of it do you fall on? Like, I'm OK with it or I wouldn't do that. I would be OK with it. It's obviously still a risk, but I'm taking Ruben Bain in the top five.

18:07Derrik Klassen: Well, going back to what Robert said at the top of this, there's some sort of risk with every player that's going to go in the top 12 or so picks of this draft. I mean, I think I think you're right, Derek, like Carnell Tate strikes me as a pretty clean player. David Bailey looks the part of like a clean edge rusher. And then I don't have big questions about Mendoza. But other than that, you're kind of deciding how comfortable you feel about a guy that doesn't have everything you're looking for. And that's why, like, considering that there aren't a lot of cleaner options, that helps me feel more comfortable about Reuben Bain.

18:42Robert Mays: Even the best, I mean, the comparison that's kept coming up over and over and over again beyond those first round guys, this player had a little bit longer arms. Again, it wasn't as much of a historical outlier, but the physical profile outside of the arm length, Brandon Graham is the guy that people keep mentioning. And I think even the idea of like Brandon Graham was the 13th overall pick in the 2010 draft. if Ruben Bain was the 13th overall pick, would everyone, would I just feel like a little bit more comfortable with that idea rather than him being the second overall pick? I think the answer is that I would.

19:09Robert Mays: But again, does that just speak to the draft that we're talking about here?

19:12Derrik Klassen: The funny thing though is you can't rule out that Ruben Bain will be the 13th overall pick.

19:17Robert Mays: Like that is well in the range of possibilities. And I think that's the conversation that a lot of teams are probably having. And that's the idea of him falling to 13 because there's so much hangup over this stuff. and that discussion of, and I think this is, when I said I was going to come back to a point you made and ask the question, I think with all of these guys and with every outlier that you ever come across in the draft, I think the most important question you have to answer is, is this a player worth compromising for? Like, there are other things that are so outlandish and outsized, punny, but outsized about this guy that he is worth compromising for.

19:53Robert Mays: And I think with each of these individual guys, you have to ask yourself that question. and I think the answer sort of has to be emphatically yes. And with Reuben Bain specifically, like there are guys who are other like outlierish players. The guy that we're going to talk about when it comes to Makai Lemon that I think is really important just because I think he broke the mold for receiver size is Devontae Smith, right? Like Devontae Smith is like an all-time outlierish prospect. Devontae Smith was the most productive receiver in the history of college football. He won the Heisman Trophy. Is Reuben Bain productive enough to allow you to kind of step outside of some of those concerns you have about the frame?

20:32Robert Mays: Like, are there things other than like, he's a cool player, I like some of the things he does that are so outlandish that you're like, I think he can overcome this.

20:41Dave Helman: I mean, it's not quite the same as winning the Heisman, but I think being clearly the best player on a national championship, like defense, obviously they didn't win it, but getting to the national championship, like, I do think that that is like kind of puts you up into that category.

20:55Derrik Klassen: That's a fair answer. And producing, like, you know, I don't think Miami's 2025 schedule was quite a murderer's row, but producing in all of those moments, like wrecking Notre Dame in the season opener. Florida was not good last year, but that's a team that's going to have NFL players, including their left tackle. Beat up on Texas A &M, beat up on Ohio State. Like, in these moments, he showed up. Like we can talk about another guy, another guy with arm length issues, because that's this draft. Cash is how old. Yeah. Texas A &M. Phenomenal player. Did some really cool shit was, I believe, the leading defensive lineman in the SEC and sacks and beat up on some some SEC programs.

21:39Derrik Klassen: Also, watch him play against Miami and play against like NFL offensive tackles. And you're like, oh, that shows up a little bit. But it does not show up as much when you watch Reuben Bain, in my opinion. And that gives me a greater degree of comfort.

21:53Robert Mays: And with Howell, I mean, he was a productive pass rusher. Bain led the country in pressures. It's like it's not even just like there are stylistic things and how he plays against the run. And I think a lot of stuff to like there. But he was also arguably the most productive pass rusher in college football. It's just, again, I think the question becomes, was it so much production that you're kind of like, ah, some of the other questions matter a little bit less because of that. I think everyone has to come to their own conclusion about that. I think that's true, but I also, again, what is the supposedly safe alternative?

22:22Robert Mays: But again, that gets back to the, it's more about this draft than it is about the player. And I think that's another thing we keep coming, we're going to keep coming back to. It all works in tandem. All right, let's take our first quick break here and then come talk, come back and talk about a player that I'm going to be willing to compromise on.

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25:20Robert Mays: I've watched a few games of Ruben Bain and I will watch more as we like dig into the defensive end show and everything else. I'll say that like I wasn't in my first pass. I wasn't like so enamored where I was like, fuck yeah, let's do this. I'm sure I may get there as I watch more. the guy that i at my first pass and i was like yeah let's do this i'm willing to compromise immediately is watching spencer fano from utah really yes expound on a monster watch it the way he moves is just wild the way he moves in the run game the way he pulls the moving to the second level it's not even just that like the movement skills in pass protection the bad the contact balance is unbelievable i think that there are a lot of nuances to his game in terms of like what his pass protection plan looks like, like the independent hands, the way he flashes his hands.

26:08Robert Mays: Like I just, one of those guys where I turned it on and immediately I was just like, I'm just enamored with this guy. At the same time, Derek, this idea of he, the arms are 32 and an eighth. And I don't, I honestly, when I watch him play, he got up to 32 and seven, eight said his pro day.

26:28Derrik Klassen: Congratulations. I'm thrilled for him. Okay. That's still a 10th percentile.

26:32Robert Mays: So that is worth mentioning, like the last couple of years and the combine measurements being so wonky and shorter than we're used to, like how that plays into these discussions, I think is at least worth acknowledging. But Derek, my issue when I watch Fano and I think the other guy, like the thing that might come up with teams really curious about his ceiling, whether he's worth like a top 10 pick, it's not even the arm length. It's just that his frame, he's just a smaller guy. And so the power is almost more of a limiter than the arm length to me when I watch him. And that's just another layer to like, where are you willing to compromise and where are you not?

27:04Robert Mays: Because the movement skills are so crazy that I could talk myself into him. But even I'm willing to acknowledge he probably has a limited ceiling because he's never going to displace guys.

27:15Dave Helman: I think that the Fano is the trickiest one for me because I think I am confident he will be a good offensive lineman. I'm not positive it will be a tackle, but I just the movement skills are unbelievable. Like, I think he's such a technically clean player. And even though he doesn't move people, I think he commands blocks really well in that, like, once he gets his hands on. The balance is so good. Yes. Like, once he gets his hands on a guy and, like, snaps his hips into, like, moving the guy, it's like, oh, he just takes control of the rep. It's all over. And then, like you said, he never loses his balance.

27:46Dave Helman: His feet are always with him. He's never on the ground. Like, he's just a very, very clean player in the way that he does it and checks all the movement boxes. But yeah, the frame is a little bit skinny and it's, it's not just the arm length. It's that when you just look at him on, on film, it's almost like Reuben Bain where you're like, that just doesn't look like a top five tackle because his, his shoulders are kind of narrow. Like he just, he has this like, they're a lot wider than Will Campbell's.

28:09Robert Mays: I'll tell you that right now.

28:11Dave Helman: Well, that is all, that is fair. That is completely fair.

28:14Robert Mays: I looked at our first thing. I was like, what's the, what's the wingspan compared to Will Campbell? How can I talk myself into this?

28:19Derrik Klassen: And I'm like, the difference can't be that much. Oh, it's like several inches. Okay. Yeah.

28:23Robert Mays: Really? okay i think campbell's wingspan is like it's like 76 and i think that fanos is like 80

28:30Derrik Klassen: will campbell's is 77 and three three eights spencer fano live mock draftable on the podcast

28:40Robert Mays: that's what we've been doing 24 hours a day yeah last two weeks spencer fano is up to 80 and a quarter so yeah it's a good bit longer yeah it's it's bigger yeah it's bigger so why are you surprised about the fan of thing i just so vano the for me it's and it's it's both of the utah

28:55Derrik Klassen: tackles and again like i have sometimes it can be a benefit sometimes it can be a a hindrance i remember going back to august like spencer fano caleb lomu is the other tackle at utah and both of these guys are candidates in august to be like ot1 to be a top 10 pick and be the first guy off the board and they both had their moments they're both good players lomu is enormous like looks very much the part of a left tackle but he's 21 he's a developing player fano is the more developed player but is just a more of a physical outlier like we're talking about and i think over the course of the year you just didn't see them like grab the bull by the horns and just become that no doubt guy and speaking of our man david bailey like he he texas tech in general because romelo height is the other guy.

29:44Derrik Klassen: Texas Tech gave Utah fricking fits when they played those guys. And I think it's just one of those things where you hear the name and you're, he's on your radar. And then over the course of the year, you're just like, ah, I wanted this to go in a linear progression. And that's just not the case. And then this is completely subjective. But if you're talking about an offensive tackle prospect who might go top five, if he's doing a center workout at the combine, I'm just, and, and maybe like he could be a phenomenal guard or maybe even a center like he's definitely he like Derek said he's gonna play offensive line in the NFL and probably be a pretty good player will he be an upper echelon offensive tackle and if he's not is that worth a number like a three to five overall pick so and I don't I don't know the answer to that I don't feel as good about it which I can understand there's some incongruities thank you so much incongruities there with Ruben Bain but with Ruben Bain, I'm just like, ah, just kick somebody's ass and get after the quarterback.

30:44Derrik Klassen: And it'll probably all it'll all even out in the wash. But like if I'm drafting a guy top five and he might have to play guard or even center, just dampens my enthusiasm a little bit. Where are you at on this?

30:58Dave Helman: I, I think that's a little bit where I'm at. If you're going to try to make the optimistic case that he can play tackle, there are some guys who look like this. Luka Deke has a very similar build to him. And so does Bernard Raymond. And those are both like pro bowl level tackles, like second and third round picks, second and third round picks. Exactly. There are not guys that you take inside of the top 10. And so that's kind of, I mean, I did the same thing with Ruben Bain, right? Where I'm talking about like, these are guys that can work and they're like third and fifth round picks and stuff like that.

31:24Dave Helman: And so these guys can work, but you're trying to thread a needle a little bit. So I think ideally, like if he's up for it, I think he would be a phenomenal center. Like the movement skills are perfect. Like I think the frame fits better. Like if he could do it, if he could handle that mentally, I think you would be sensational there. but even if you think that he can be like the third best center in the league at centers don't go top 12 in the draft like that just doesn't happen and so i think it just puts teams in a

31:47Derrik Klassen: really interesting position if they whip ass should they like i mean i'll i'll argue against myself here like i was the guy standing up for centers a couple weeks ago we're gonna do this

31:57Robert Mays: never done it you just don't know right i think that's part of it and i also just think that we we're gonna do an entire show about this but the idea of positional value is like it's very real the resources that you have to allocate to the positions. And now, obviously, maybe that changes because of the way that Tyler Linderbaum has moved the center market. So maybe that discussion starts to shift a little bit. But this idea of the markets, the way the league rewards certain positions financially dictates value when it comes to drafting guys in the first round. Because if you I don't know exactly where the numbers lie, but like running back is always the best example to use with this.

32:36Robert Mays: So let's go with running back. Like, if you draft a running back in the top five, Jeremiah Love becomes hypothetically the sixth highest paid running back in the league, whatever. Even if he is immediately the sixth highest paid running back in the league, you had no moments where that contract was of any sort of value to you. And I thought Hayden Winks did a very good job of this with something he did on Twitter last week, our buddy from Underdog, talking about this exact idea. And again, it's something we've discussed a lot, but I think he put a really fine point on it. Kyle Hamilton was the one that I thought he did a really, really good job of articulating this.

33:07Robert Mays: We have this idea of Kyle Hamilton as this player who fell in the draft and fell further than he should have in the draft. Kyle Hamilton was the 14th pick in the draft. Go look at the contract that Kyle Hamilton now has as the 14th pick in the draft and go look at all of the players drafted ahead of him and what they are going to get paid on their second contracts. It is going to be significantly more than Kyle Hamilton. And so even in the moments where we think we can step outside of positional value in the first half of the first round, it often comes back to this place where you're not actually getting that much excess value.

33:42Robert Mays: And so I do think that like, we can talk about this all we want. And it's not about on field impact. I think that is one of the biggest gaps that comes up when we're having this discussion. It's not when we're talking about linebackers and you're saying, well, linebackers don't impact the game in the same way. So that's why you can't draft them high. That's not true. Like Fred Warner impacts the game in the same way that other elite players do. But if the mark doesn't reward doesn't work that way, then they're inherently less valuable. The thing I did with Ashton Gentry last year was that if you miss on Ashton Gentry with the seventh overall pick and you miss on Armand Membu with the seventh overall pick, the end result is the same, right?

34:19Robert Mays: Like you missed on the player, but the upside is so much higher with Membu than it is with Ashton Gentry that you're incentivized to pick Membu with the seventh overall pick. It's like the downside of the bet is the same and the upside of the bet is 3X. And so you have to weigh that when you're making this decision. And so I want to believe in the players at positions that are less premium positions. I want to argue that they should go higher in drafts. But ignoring the practical realities of what that means is silly. And we shouldn't do that.

34:48Derrik Klassen: And not to keep beating a dead horse, though. But that's what makes this draft so interesting to me. All of that stuff matters. But if the solution to the problem isn't there, what do you do?

35:01Robert Mays: I think they like that. I mean, it comes back to the gente thing where it's like, OK, you have to think about the likelihood of the bet paying off. Right. If the bet, if the three X, but you feel so much better about the gente bet hitting because he's a safer prospect. Like even if the payoff, if your your payout on a really, really high end tackle prospect is four to one, but it has a 25 percent chance of hitting. but Gentry has an 80 % chance of hitting like those, those are the different sorts of calculus. Like those are the things that you have to think about as you're making these bets. But the problem is that I always come back to this, that we're not good enough at figuring out who the safe prospects are to justify that line of thinking as often as we follow it.

35:44Dave Helman: I think that's mostly true, but I do feel like at running back when a guy is like a top 10 pick, that guy turns out good. Like every time now. And so maybe we're just on like a heater, but who? What about Melvin Gordon? Hurting Beller's feelings. Did Melvin Gordon go in the top 10?

35:59Robert Mays: Also, that was like 13 years ago. I'm just saying there are top 10 picks at running back. What about Leonard Fournette?

36:09Dave Helman: Okay, I mean, that's a good one. And that was still 10 years ago. Everyone since him has been sensational.

36:15Derrik Klassen: Leonard Fournette helped the Bucs get that Super Bowl.

36:18Robert Mays: Running back, and this is a worthwhile conversation to be having about running back. I think you and I have talked about this, Derek, where I was talking to somebody with a team recently and they were discussing that running back, we almost might be in a place where it's worth spending these really high picks on running backs because those are the true difference makers at the position. Like they're thinking it kind of shifted on that. And so I do think that there is more momentum for that approach to running back, Derek, than it might seem based on like recent history and how we think about it.

36:46Dave Helman: And I also do think Leonard Fournette is actually a good jumping off point because he was not a super valuable pass catcher. every other top 10 running back since him has been able to give you like really high quality third down ability like Bajon Robinson and guys like that. And so I think that's maybe been part of the difference too, is that the elite, like we now only consider you an elite running back. If you can also do that.

37:09Derrik Klassen: I just think the, what you're bringing up like last year and ironically, Armand Mimbu wasn't even the first offensive tackle taken, but if there was an Armand Mimbu at the top of this draft, then I'd like, it wouldn't even be a conversation. People are dying to have an Armand Membu in this draft. And instead, you're trying to squint and see it with good players, don't get me wrong, but you're trying to make it work with guys that just don't have the physical traits, at least to go in a range like this.

37:40Robert Mays: The physical traits point cuts me off the joke I was about to make because Spencer Fano was the Armand Membu in this draft. We should just stop searching for them because he's sitting right in front of us. But no, I think what you're saying is correct. Let's talk about Makai Lemon as part of this discussion. But before that, we're going to take one more quick break.

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39:33Robert Mays: So Lemon is honestly, like Fano, I think, again, just to put a point on it, I think every concern about his ceiling, and again, it's not even just the arm length, but it's the size and the power and some of those concerns. Like, I absolutely think there are, there's reason to push him a little bit further down and not compromise on a player like him, even if I do love a lot of what he's bringing to the table. Lemon, I think, becomes, arguably, in my opinion, the most interesting discussion with all of this because he's not like a huge size outlier or athleticism outlier, Derek, but he is in some ways.

40:07Robert Mays: So Makai Lemon from USC, who day and again, has in the top 15 of this draft, He's 5 '11", 192, okay? So he's very similar to Ladd McConkie in size. He's incredibly similar. And this is the comp everyone has made. It's understandable on a bunch of different levels. Tom on Ross St. Brown. Overall build, athleticism. So when you look at guys that were less than six foot and less than 195 pounds to go in the first round over the last 15 years, a lot of those guys, you'll sense a theme as I list these off. Ted Ginn, Jalen Waddell, Chris Olave, Tavon Austin Garrett Wilson all of them read sub 4-4 you're naming a lot of fast guys all of them they were all at least the receivers that had a vertical element to their game that ran a sub 4-4

40:51Derrik Klassen: what was Makai Lemons 40th time I mean they I think they said 4-4-8 unofficial but I don't buy it I think the real time was like 4-5-6 or something like that let's just be generous and say it was

41:02Robert Mays: 4-5 even that makes him an outlier as a player less than six foot less than 195 pounds Derek that will be drafted in the top half of the first round because almost all the other guys who have done this are speed receivers who have a vertical element to their game in a way that he just doesn't. His ADOT was like 10.3 yards last year.

41:21Dave Helman: And a lot of them were guys who were more even played outside in college, even if they became guys who maybe played a little bit more slot. Like Matthew Golden is not that different of a size, but he played a lot of outside and ran a 4.29. Xavier Worthy was obviously smaller, fastest man alive. Zay Flowers, also a guy who played a lot more outside in college,

41:38Robert Mays: also ran really fast like it was the 22nd pick in the draft exactly exactly we're not talking about

41:44Dave Helman: like a top 12 pick here he falls because again the super short arms uh all that stuff and so lemon is an interesting one because i think for me if you just look at him for me at wide receiver i'm like that's not a first round pick like you just that size that's if you're not an elite that's shocking to hear this you know at least guys like garrett wilson it's like okay that's an elite athlete or you have to be Devonta Smith where it's like you are so undeniably good I'm gonna let you get away with it and I think Derek have you watched Derek have you watched Enzo Boston yet uh funny enough uh even though I'm a sizist I don't love him we'll get to that at some point

42:22Derrik Klassen: I'm shocked okay you bucked that trend at least yeah I there are a couple of other big receivers

42:27Dave Helman: I like in this class but Boston I was a little more like he's he's okay um but when I watch Lemon I see more of like a Khalil Shakir type and like that's a good player you can't take that in

42:40Robert Mays: the top 15 like that's absurd to me that feels like a low end comp for it compared to the people who like Makai Lemon I'm sure they would hear that and spit in your face so that's the other thing I

42:52Dave Helman: I was not quite as impressed by his tape I think he's a good player I think the use cases are very obvious that cannot be your best wide receiver and I don't want to draft not my best wide receiver in the top like 12.

43:06Derrik Klassen: I feel like you and I talked about this on a different show like why? Why does he need to be your best receiver? Like just I'm looking at I'm just looking at the top. He's not going to be able to play outside.

43:19Dave Helman: He should be a Jalen Waddle. He should be a Devonta Smith and he can do it a little bit but he is a slot to me the cleveland browns are the only team picking in the

43:28Derrik Klassen: top half of the draft where makai lemon would be the best pass catcher on their team right away right does that sound accurate to you uh i'd have to pull up the draft board yeah but probably i mean like and i'm cheating a little bit by including tight ends like bowers and trey mcbride and stuff like that i guess you could make i guess you could say tennessee probably tennessee Tennessee, but I don't expect Tennessee to take my top five. Yeah, they're not. But like Washington, New Orleans, Kansas City, Cincinnati. I guess if Miami took him, he'd be the best receiver on the Dolphins. But Dallas, L.A., Baltimore, Tampa, like all like all these places he could wind up.

44:05Derrik Klassen: He doesn't need to be your best pass catcher. And I understand the ideal is to get that guy. But I don't know.

44:13Robert Mays: That's not this draft. And I think that's OK. So again, I want to with all of these, I think the most important question you can root these discussions in is why are we compromising on this player? Why is this worth doing? And with Mekhi Lemon, I think the reason that this is a different discussion is that the structure of the league has pushed us to a place where his limitations matter less than they would have in a previous version of how we understood receivers and their profiles. We did an entire show last fall. It was me and I think Matt Harmon did an entire show about the changing physical profile and athleticism profile of elite receivers in the NFL.

44:52Robert Mays: And the guys that we kept coming back to that kind of were the centerpiece of that show were JSN, Puka, and Amon Ross St. Brown. At that time, they were just like in a completely different tier halfway through the season in terms of production in the NFL. And I think because we're at a place where we have so much zone coverage in the league, and if your biggest weakness is inability to kind of deal with press on the outside, that matters less than it might have in previous eras of the NFL. and because so many teams are playing with these condensed formations, the line between slot and outside has blurred to a point where if you are a guy where it's like, is he really an outside guy?

45:32Robert Mays: Is he a slot guy? That matters less than it has in previous areas of the NFL. And so with Lemon specifically, I think the arc of where the league is push us to a place where even if he doesn't feel like a top 15 receiver most years or 10 years ago, now should we reframe our thinking around that?

45:51Dave Helman: if other people want to, that's fine. That's not the way I want to build a team. That ain't for me. I'm not taking a slot primary who's under six foot in the top 15. And I also, it's again, I think I would make it. I think I would maybe make an exception if I thought his tape was special. I think his tape is good. And like, just kind of flatly good. That's kind of where I landed with him.

46:11Derrik Klassen: Like if you're, if you're holding out for special tape, then you're not going to love that many guys that you can pick. That's, that's where I land with.

46:20Dave Helman: I like probably at least a dozen players in this class more than him, probably closer to like 20 something. I mean,

46:26Derrik Klassen: I can, I haven't even seen everybody. I can get behind a dozen, like a dozen's fine. If, if you don't think Makai Lemon's a top 12 pick, I'm not going to argue that hard with you, but like,

46:35Robert Mays: we should also acknowledge that he's not a reliable narrator when it comes to this specific subject.

46:40Dave Helman: I wait for what, for what, for numbers, receiver size.

46:45Robert Mays: Just understand where, understand the messenger on the other side of this.

46:49Dave Helman: I mean, Let me make a small case to wash myself away of this. For this class specifically, Casey Concepcion is very similar size. I think he's a better prospect.

47:00Derrik Klassen: That's interesting. I mean, Casey Concepcion. Because he's fast. Yeah, no, he's much more fast and much more sudden. I don't know, though, man. Casey Concepcion has drop issues, and Makai Lemon catches everything you throw into his very small orbit.

47:15Dave Helman: it like it's not a big catch radius but he's coming down with it he does have big myths there's a little bit of like the Parker Washington thing there but like again like do I want to draft the guy who's like Parker Washington ish that high I don't know it's gonna be my next question for you

47:30Robert Mays: let's just say in the very uninteresting and uninspired comp world that he is just Amon Ross St. Brown if I told you right now that Makai Lemon had Amon Ross St. Brown's first five years in the NFL? Do you think he is worth a top 15 pick?

47:49Dave Helman: Barely. Because again, I think I, I value a player. I think it's a wild stance. That is a crazy thing to say. I value a player like Amon Ross St. Brown probably a little bit less. Like if I, I, there are probably other outside receivers that people would probably rank below Amon Ross St. Brown that I would probably take above because I just prefer that as a skillset. And I think it's more valuable.

48:11Derrik Klassen: How many receivers over the course of Amon Ross St. Brown's career have been and of course like there are like there are more explosive better receivers than Amon Ross St.

48:20Robert Mays: Brown probably less than I'd say you can count them on two hands yes yeah it's a short list you're a very good player I if you read it to

48:29Dave Helman: find guys who can win outside and I I value that in the draft like you want to find the things that are hard to find I think he can win outside I think I think Amon Ross has shown an ability at this point in his career can but like that is a very recent development that took five years for

48:43Derrik Klassen: us to really get there i don't know i just and again maybe lemon i just want to put good football

48:47Robert Mays: players on my team i don't really care how they win here is the if i was trying to put devil's advocate for the shitting on makai lemon party that derrick is trying to throw a lot of these guys that we're talking about in this world where more condensed splits you know that it's that blurred line between being a slot receiver and being an outside receiver a lot of those guys who succeed in those specific offenses are capable run blockers who are able to wield that as part of what they're providing to the offense. I think there's more questions about what he can do in that world than what somebody like Amon Ross St.

49:16Robert Mays: Brown can do in that world. And I think that's a worthwhile thing to bring up.

49:20Derrik Klassen: I mean, he's always going to be limited by his size, but I think he's got the right attitude. Like, I think he will block for you. I don't, like, he's not, like, he's probably not ever going to be great at it, but he's not like an Ole sort of wide receiver or a guy who's just gonna jog up and not look like I think Mekhi Lemon will he'll he'll mix it up for you even if it's not why you're drafting him and for the record I get it like sub 200 sub six foot bad 40 it's a bad combination for a wide receiver but I don't know I like the tape and I just I think you have to work within the parameters of what this draft class is giving you.

49:58Derrik Klassen: I like Carnell Tate more than I like Makai Lemon. After that, I mean, Jordan Tyson's an amazing player. Jordan Tyson missed almost 40 % of his college career. That scares me a hell of a lot more than Makai Lemon's parameters.

50:10Robert Mays: Me personally. Derek, if Makai Lemon was drafted by the Rams with the 13th overall pick, would you be excited?

50:19Dave Helman: See, that's cheating though, because anytime, anytime someone like a Sean McVay or Kyle Shanahan draft someone, I'm like, Maybe, but I still, I would probably look at it and be like, man, I wish they took X tackler, whatever it is at that position. Like, I just, it doesn't get me all that jazzed. I don't know.

50:38Robert Mays: Part of the reason I said that is not just the, oh, if this guy likes him, then maybe I should too. It's also the, in that offense, it seems like that's the best world for him to be very successful.

50:48Dave Helman: That's what I'm saying is like, if he and his world can see it, it's like, okay, well then maybe there is a world where this could work.

50:53Robert Mays: Well, and that's part of my point too is. His world is our world. now is the other argument I would make. The McVay world is the awesome.

50:59Derrik Klassen: That's fair. There aren't, and maybe it's a quirk of this year's draft, or maybe it is a statement about the way this stuff is changing. There aren't that many places where Makai Lemon is going to land, where it's like, good luck, buddy, it's all on you. Like, no, like there are most of the teams where it would make sense to draft him. He's going in to be a piece of the bigger thing. I can't wait for him to be the number one receiver

51:23Robert Mays: and get 150 targets in Miami this year. I'm pumped about it that would oh those condensed splits and the baby offense they're gonna love Makai Lemon that would be kind of wild if Miami picked him but I'd I'd be interested to see what it looked like the last guy in the top half of the first round that I wanted to discuss here this is a slightly different conversation and I think that we can talk about him here and in the positional outliers one but I do think when you look at Caleb Downs and you just think about some of the specifics with Caleb Downs a lot of the guys drafted in the top half of the first round at safety have one of two things going for them that Caleb Bounds just doesn't really have as part of his profile they are either crazy athletes like they I mean straight line speed just are physical size outliers he is neither of those things or they are production outliers similar to what we talked about with like a Devontae Smith if you look at the guys that in your minds like guys that were drafted in the top half of the first round at safety that ended up becoming like hugely productive players, like borderline Hall of Fame players.

52:25Robert Mays: Earl Thomas, in his final year at Texas, who was the, I think Earl was the 13th or 14th pick in the 2010 draft. 10 draft, yeah. He had eight interceptions his final year at Texas, Earl Thomas did. Eric Berry, in his second to last season at Tennessee, before being the fourth overall pick in the draft, have seven interceptions. Minka had a season in college, he didn't think he was the 13th pick in the draft, where he had six interceptions. Caleb Downs has six interceptions in college total. And so if you look at some of the things with Caleb Downs compared to other guys who have been successful as safeties picked in this range of the draft, there are some gaps in his profile compared to players like that.

53:05Robert Mays: And so I do think he kind of creeps into this discussion a little bit. Caleb Downs is absolutely part of this discussion.

53:10Derrik Klassen: I mean, even building on that, I was curious just from a size perspective, Earl Thomas is a name worth mentioning too, but he was 15, 20 pounds heavier than Caleb Downs coming out. The list of sub-6-foot 200-pound safeties that have gone in the first round over the last 15 years, it's not a long one, and a lot of them didn't pan out into anything overly great. Jabril Peppers comes to mind, and then the Patriots moved Devin McCourty to safety.

53:38Robert Mays: Jabril Peppers is such a perfect one, because it does remind me a little bit of the discussion around Cam Dowsers. He's just a football player. He's just a football player. He's worth taking that high because he's just a football player.

53:48Dave Helman: I don't know. Caleb Downs was like 18 years old at Alabama and immediately the best player in football. Like to me, that's a little, Jabril Peppers felt like a really cool idea. Caleb Downs to me is like that guy has like was born to play safety.

54:03Robert Mays: That is very fair. And again, I know everything that's appealing about Caleb Downs and watching him this morning is the, the ability to process the game and what's happening in front of him and the route recognition, just how quickly he triggers on everything. It really does feel like he just sees the matrix playing the position. And so I, it's probably an unfair comparison, but I did think it on some level that you feel peppers thing. It's like, Oh, it brings me back to like that discourse in that moment.

54:28Derrik Klassen: I'm glad you brought that up. And it's a point, I think Daniel Jeremiah made it at some point in the last week or two, but so much of what Caleb, so much of what makes Caleb Downs valuable and I've talked to people about this on my own as well like it's stuff that you I mean you can see it when you watch him like it's very obvious what a smart player he is but the the mental aspect that he brings to your defense and and getting people into the right position and knowing what's going on it's a much harder thing to quantify than what he looks like when he measures

55:00Robert Mays: up at his pro day and what i would say is just again the pushback based on like his history and how we make these decisions is that specific skill very very very rarely pushes players to

55:13Derrik Klassen: be drafted inside the top 10 and very rarely for the record i'm i am fascinated by this and i've been thinking about it a lot because i feel like people people expect him to be a top 10 pick and I wouldn't blame a team that made him a top 10 pick, but I'm at the point where I almost expect the league to do this again. Like I don't, I think I need to see the NFL draft him in the top 10 to believe that they're going to do it between the, and for the record, I think people hear like sub six foot and like his overall size. And he didn't run a 40 in this draft process. I think Ohio state's pro day was on Wednesday and he didn't run one.

55:52I think it get like,

55:54Derrik Klassen: people are under the impression that he's a bad athlete. I don't think he's a bad athlete at all. And I don't think league evaluators really have a lot of questions about that, but he's not like a freak athlete either. And so between the size and normal athleticism and normal production and normal production, I, even if I disagree, I won't be surprised if he does slide and by slide, I mean, like, I would guess he's a top 15 pick instead of a top 10 pick.

56:20Robert Mays: So let's bring it back. why are we compromising on this player and should we be compromising on this player is there a worthwhile answer to that question for you and Caleb Downs Derek I think for me yes like

56:32Dave Helman: one he again he just the way that he sees it is as good as I've probably seen I'm glad you brought up Minka earlier he's probably sees the game as well as I've seen the safety see the game since Minka like Kyle Hamilton was fantastic too but part of drafting Kyle Hamilton was oh they just don't look like that. Like, they're just not safeties who do like that. Yeah, just like, he was a little bit of a different conversation even if his film was also fantastic. Downs, I think his film was fantastic. And then I think, too, he also really fits in this too high world we're living in where, like, he's a really good hash safety.

57:02Dave Helman: He can spin to the middle if he needs to. He's really good down in the box. He can cover from the slot. Like, he does do everything in a way that you need from the modern game. And then the last thing, and maybe this is just me, like, I really, really value the guy who was, like, 18 year old freshman high program immediately like that is the best player on the field and for him to do that at then two different programs like i usually the guys who are that good right out of

57:28Robert Mays: the box that guy ends up being a pretty good nfl player and in the box and in the box oh right

57:36Derrik Klassen: i see what you did there it caught me off guard i just think like the like we say so much about the direction the league is moving in and maybe he's not perfect because he's a little bit undersized but like caleb downs looks like a perfect player for what nfl defenses are trying to do and maybe that's maybe that's part of it right yes it's like it's adjacent to the mckay lemon discussion that we're having and derrick kind of touched on it just there but like you're like you're not drafting caleb downs to play one position like he can do a little bit of everything some nfl teams are going to play him a lot at nickel.

58:11Derrik Klassen: And I don't mean like the big nickel, Nick him and worry thing. He's a different type of player, but he can do stuff in the slot. He can do stuff in the box. He can play on the back end. He's going to be one of the smartest players on your defense that again, has everything shored up, makes everybody better because he's got them in the right position to make plays. And he's also, he's one of those guys, like he's, he is wired for football. I don't know if he's wired for anything else. Like ball is life for this guy. That's what I've heard about him. And so between the mental makeup of what he's about and what he wants to do and then his calling card as a player, nobody's bust proof.

58:48But he looks like a guy who is meant to be like a turnkey player

58:55Derrik Klassen: for a modern NFL defense to me, even if the size isn't ideal.

58:59Robert Mays: And I will say, if we're talking about the inability to figure out who the safe players are, One thing that I do think a lot of teams come back to when they're like, I don't know if he's going to be great, but I know he's going to be somebody who could be a starter for us. He's part of our program. He's somebody who can rely on. The football character part of that, to me, is probably the most important part of that. Like, Paris Johnson is the best possible example of this to me, where I think there were questions about, like, Paris Johnson's ceiling and what Paris Johnson would be. And I think the Cardinals at that point in their process, in those first couple drafts where they had no players, it was just like, we just need a guy who we know is going to be a starter for us five years from now and that's what paris johnson was and he was a top 10 pick no 12th no six they traded back up and all this stuff yes again it's a premium position so it's a slightly different set of considerations but like

59:49Dave Helman: again that's part of the thinking if you're the bangles right and you just need like starters on defense why would you not take caleb downs where it's just like i know the shamar thrope where they're like we're taking a swing like we've missed on all these end charges we need to hit this guy caleb downs is the exact opposite of like listen he might only top out as like a b level player that's i don't think that's true of caleb downs but like if that's what we're saying potentially even if he tops out as a b he also bottoms out as a b minus that's fine for where

1:00:19Derrik Klassen: we're at given how bad the defense is you can come back and play this for me in four years and if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. If you draft Caleb Downs, assuming good health and like for being an undersized player, he didn't miss a lot of games in college, assuming good health. He's not that small, by the way. No, no, I know. He's not that small. He's not like

1:00:37Robert Mays: this idea of like, oh, he wouldn't be a bit. He's too, it was 206, the combine. Like if you, if 200 is like, that's capable, like that's big enough.

1:00:45Derrik Klassen: He's not a crazy small player. He's just not a big player either. Assuming good health, the bad Caleb Downs is a guy that starts for you for five years and you let him walk in free agency. And like, if that's the bad version of this, I can live with that. I mean, it's not ideal, but you're not going to look back on this in three years and be like, oh, that was the Caleb Downs draft, which was the beginning of setting us back for three years. Like, I just, I don't believe that's going to happen.

1:01:10Robert Mays: The only thing that's going to creep up is when Spencer Fano goes one pick later and he's a 10-time all-pro. It's the only thing that's going to throw a wrench into all of this. Any other guys you guys, you wanted to make sure we hit a discussion. I know we kind of zeroed in on those four players, and you guys had more guys that kind of fit this.

1:01:26Derrik Klassen: I got a few, Derek. Do you have any first?

1:01:30Dave Helman: One that we did not touch on, which is kind of unique to this class, but there are two players that fit this. Akeem Mesidor, the other Miami edge, being he will be 25 by draft day, and the history of players who are 25 and older by draft day is not very good. And for me, if we're talking about— How many others did you find? how many there's i i did i it was honestly really hard to find lists on this i even asked dane today

1:01:56Robert Mays: and he like yeah there isn't a quick way to access it like i was surprised that when doing some of the historical research i was actually surprised at how little historic draft data is like publicly

1:02:06Dave Helman: available for search i thought like pro football reference would maybe have like i could go on there and it would give me like no sir at draft and it doesn't have it so it was a little bit hard to find it but it's just like i think we all know that like most of those guys who get drafted that age kind of struggle and then so for me if you're going to be that age you either need to be like the best athlete on the field or your tape has to be insane I think Mesador's tape is solid but like for his size wasn't quite the run defender I thought and then I thought all of his best pass rushes were like him lined up as the three tech on on like a third down like a third and 11 and he wins and gets the guard and like that is valuable in the third round I don't know if that's like where I want to take that in the first round.

1:02:48Derrik Klassen: I'm so ready for the COVID flyers to be like, they're finally winding down and we don't have to worry about this anymore. I think there's a few more guys, but it shouldn't last much longer there. I did find a few articles of like 28 and like 27, 28 year old guys who were drafted. Most of those happened a lot, like literally decades ago. And most of them were also quarterbacks. Like there's just not a lot of

1:03:14Robert Mays: precedent and then uh danny watkins was the other one right like wasn't danny watkins like super old that's what that's one of the names that danny threw out to me this morning uh jairus pendleton

1:03:22Derrik Klassen: is another one jairus pendleton all the way back in 2012 drafted at the age of 28 yeah i mean there's there's not a big sample size of guys like this so who are the other guys you wanted to talk about one guy that's really interesting to me and i actually i mean dane and i have talked about him before but i was talking to him about it last night i think it's so interesting that one of the top cornerbacks in this draft is a guy who didn't play last year and that would be a jermaud mccoy out of tennessee and obviously like guys deal with injuries all the time and so uh jermaud mccoy tore his acl in january of 25 right after tennessee's season he was phenomenal as a sophomore he transferred from oregon state his 2024 tape is absolutely incredible you completely understand why people are high on him he didn't play at all in 2025 there was hope he would come back for Tennessee.

1:04:09Derrik Klassen: I think he said at the combine, he was medically cleared, but he just didn't feel all the way comfortable. As of right now, Tennessee's pro day is, so it's March 26th, as we're recording, Tennessee's pro day is March 31st. So nobody's seen this guy run. And he says he's all good to go. He's completely fine. But I think it's fascinating that a guy could be a top 15 pick with absolutely zero tape from the year before. And we've seen this, the speaking of COVID that I mean, Jamar Chase, Micah Parsons, Panay Sewell, those guys all sat out. They were healthy. They just didn't play in the 2020 season for a guy to not have a season at all.

1:04:50Derrik Klassen: And Dane threw me these names, which are, which is good on his part. Uh, JSN played three games the year before he came out. Siobhan Revell was the guy I was thinking about, which he was the third round pick. Yeah. He's the third round pick. And so if he really goes in the top 15, top 20 with no junior tape, that's incredible to me. And it says a lot about how good his tape was in 2024. And it maybe says a lot about this draft class. And it brings us back around.

1:05:17Robert Mays: That was going to be my question.

1:05:18Derrik Klassen: Or does it say more about this draft class? The 2024 tape is really, really cool, but I would be scared shitless. Again, going back to what I said about Spencer Fano, you in August, you're like, this guy's the truth. He's going to he's OT one. And he was good this year, but it's up and down. And you're like, ah, I know. Okay. I know you love Spencer. The I like, but I mean, that's, that's player growth in general. Very few guys are just on this constantly upward trajectory. So for Jermon McCoy to not have any tape from this past year and still go in the top 15, not saying it's impossible or anything, but that's wild to me.

1:05:56Derrik Klassen: Derek Stingley is another one worth mentioning, but he, he had three games in his final season at LSU, too, which not to say that you're hanging your hat on that, but I don't know. It makes me feel a little bit better to say, OK, he played a few games, got hurt, shut it down after that, as opposed to we have not seen this guy on a football field since December of 2024. And he could be a top 15 pick next month. That's that's a new one for me.

1:06:21Robert Mays: Derek Stingley goes back to Derek's point about when you were 18, were you the best player on the field? That's that's the guy I'm going to continue to bet on.

1:06:28Dave Helman: Yes, exactly. So like the short arm, some of the other stuff with him, the injury history, it was like, dude, we knew from day one that guy was it. We don't have to worry about it.

1:06:35Robert Mays: He's been okay.

1:06:37Derrik Klassen: He's been a solid pro. Was not SEC freshman of the year, though. Bo Nix was. Who was it that year? Justifiably so.

1:06:50Robert Mays: The only way you can make Derek's day worse than trying to pump up Makai Lemon as an elite draft prospect is dropping that at the end. All right. That is all we've got for today. As always, thank you guys for tuning in. Make sure to hit the subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. And if you enjoyed this, please like, leave a rating, sound off in the comments, and we will see you next time. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

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