Who has the most at stake in 2025?

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2:13Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Got a mainstay show coming for you guys today. A sign that training camp is officially here. We've done the show over the last few years. Me and Dave Hellman are going to be talking about who has the most at stake in the NFL this season. I appreciate that Dave took this exercise the same way that I took it. These are guys that have money at stake, have jobs at stake. Depending on how this season goes, could it shift one way or another for their NFL futures? Coaches, executives, quarterbacks, pending free agents. We hit all of it on today's show.

2:48Robert Mays: Let's get to that conversation with me and Dave right now.

2:57Robert Mays: I love doing this show every year because to me, it's a real sign that the season is back. I always do the show early in training camp, probably right around this date almost every year. If you went and checked out when we did the Who Has the Most at Stake show last year, it was probably around July 27th, July 28th. So very excited to dig into this. But David, David, before we dig into the show today, we got a little bit of housekeeping to take care of. I'm not sure you're aware of this, but you have something that you want to tell the people.

3:26Derrik Klassen: Yeah, if I guess if you've been wondering why I'm in your ears and on your feed so frequently, it's because I work here now. I joined the athletic football show, I guess. We'll call it a slow rollout. But yeah, I guess I've been here for a little bit, but we can mark this as the official start. I'm joining the crew. I could not be more excited, Robert. I mean, I've told you this 100 ,000 times, not on a podcast, but I think this show is the gold standard for football talk in this space. I've used it as a resource throughout my career. I've measured myself against it as a contemporary. And now being part of it, I mean, thrill doesn't really do it justice.

4:09Derrik Klassen: I'm so pumped to be part of it.

4:11Robert Mays: And we're pumped to have you, buddy. Like, sincerely, we really are. And, you know, this is something you and I have talked about going back a little while now. And I always thought that you could bring something different and unique to what we're doing. And I'm really excited to see what it's going to look like moving forward. And, you know, Derek is obviously still a huge part of what we're doing. It's going to be the three of us on a bunch of different shows. I just love the three man weave. I love the vibes of it. I love the dynamic of it. And really excited to have you as the third person in that third chair and what this season is ultimately going to look like.

4:38Robert Mays: So we are thrilled for you to be here. You're in Chicago. So there's just like a growing contingence of athletic football show folks in Chicago, which hopefully will lead to some cool stuff on the horizon. But we are pumped about what this season of the athletic football show is going to be. And you coming aboard is a huge part of that.

4:57Derrik Klassen: I'm going to waste no time in just making like Chicago guy a huge part of my personality. Like I can't wait to just. Yeah. Yeah. I'm just going to speed run it. I cannot wait. And I shout out to him as well. We'll be having stuff coming with Dane Brugler. I have every intention of being one of y 'all's draft guys throughout the year. I've worked with Dane before. If you're familiar with his work, I would guess that I've probably crossed your feed from time to time. Cannot wait to get back together with him. That's for a later date. But yeah, man, I'm so excited about so much stuff that we have coming.

5:32Robert Mays: One of the reasons that we did the slow rollout is that we have some fun stuff that we're going to announce next month that is still kind of on the back burner a little bit. But instead of doing it all at once, we wanted people to be a little bit less confused about why you were on the feed all the time. So that we've gotten taken care of. There is a bunch more stuff coming that we are very excited to tell all of you about. That'll be coming down the pike a little bit later, again, probably in the next few weeks or so. But really cool stuff on the horizon for this feed, this show, as we kind of step into what really does feel like a new era.

6:02Robert Mays: Let's do something that has been a mainstay on this show for a while and talk about the guys who have the most at stake heading into the 2025 NFL season. This, this list feels a little different to me than normal, because I think there's some years where it feels like there's a big pivot quarterback and there's one on my list, maybe two, if you want to throw a couple of guys in there, but there aren't that many guys that like Jalen hurts was on this list at one point, because after they traded for AJ Brown, it's like, is Jalen hurts going to be the starter for the Eagles tool was on this list.

6:31Robert Mays: you know, going into his contract year, you know, there are a bunch of coaches typically here where it's like, all right, if this doesn't go well, what does this mean? So it was a little bit harder for me to come up with my pool of guys this year, but I still feel like there are a decent number of people to dig into as we think about how this season can swing things one way or another for some of these guys.

6:52Derrik Klassen: I love that point. And, and it ties directly into the way that I approach this, Right. Because it's the time of year for those sorts of takes where we're talking about legacy. We're talking about getting over the hump, climbing to the top of the mountain, all that good stuff. That's if we're talking about what's at stake, that's not how I measure these sorts of things. So, you know, like if you want me to talk about a Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. Oh, yeah. That's not what I'm doing here. Yeah. That's not what I'm looking for here, because that I mean, we've got we still have so much time to determine that sort of stuff.

7:25Derrik Klassen: So like when I'm boiling down this list, I'm really looking for people whose NFL futures could be drastically affected by the next four months. And I'm curious, I'm going to steal your hosting duties for one sec, because I just I want to know with everything you've got going on and your tour across the country. How many names did you manage to come up with?

7:49Robert Mays: I have six, kind of six, six slash seven is what I ended up landing on here. Almost all of mine come from the bucket that you're talking about, except for one. There's one legacy conversation that I want to have in here that actually has nothing to do with football. And so I'm looking forward to that. But the other five, six guys I have are exactly what you just described. Like, what is next year going to look like for them in terms of their employment based on how this season goes?

8:18Derrik Klassen: so full disclosure i've got nothing better to do but to sit around chicago and daydream and and plan for shows that i'm doing i came up with 20 names i don't have to i don't have to do all of you can't talk about all 20 names you have to whittle this down to some number that's fine i bet there's gonna be some overlap it'll be fine but i literally like all weekend i was just like oh yeah that's a good one and i would like write it down and then i would go you know finish my dinner and 40 minutes later, I'd be like, Ooh, yeah, him too. So I'll pare it down as we go. But I came up with a long list.

8:53Robert Mays: You're going to start this off then, because I want to know who is at the top of that list. If you got 20, who is number one of the 20?

9:00Derrik Klassen: Okay. So I separated it into, I've got coaches and execs. I've got quarterbacks specifically. And then I've just got players that regular non-quarterback players. He's first on my list because I started with coaches and execs, but I also, this was the one that's just most interesting to me and is something that I've got a close eye on. And I'm curious for your take on this because the name is Zach Taylor.

9:27Robert Mays: Ooh, I did not have him on my list, but I think this is a good one. We had a Zach Taylor conversation on a mailbag a couple of weeks ago. And I think it's not surprising that you have this at front of mind as listeners have had, what is Zach Taylor at front of mine. So why is Zach Taylor for who has the most at stake this year?

9:45Derrik Klassen: It's right here in the first paragraph of my notes, Zach Taylor. And this kind of blew my own mind when I dug into it. It's year seven for Zach Taylor. He's 46, 52 and one as a head coach. If you include the post season, he's 54, 51, 54 and one, obviously they had the run to the super bowl. Not only does that help your postseason mark but it also just keeps you in your job for a long time but 2021 is fading further and further into the past and the Cincinnati Bengals are a nine and eight football team they missed the playoffs last year despite an all-time sort of season from Joe Burrow I mean Joe was top five in any category you could want him to be the Bengals offense was top 10 in any category you could want them to be.

10:35Derrik Klassen: Jamar Chase won the triple crown, by the way, just like a staggering season. And look, I get it. I understand that the Bengals defense was the culprit here, but you can't miss the playoffs when you have players capable of doing stuff like that. And I mean, we can go down the line. Zach Taylor, I think was directly responsible, even knowing that the defense sucked. Zach Taylor had a hand in at least a couple of those. the overtime loss to Baltimore drives me crazy to this day the decision making on the Ravens 38 yard line it makes me want to scream even 10 months later and yeah I'm just like how how long can you be expected to waste a talent like Joe Burrow with guys like Jamar Chase and T Higgins oh by the way you just scapegoated Lou Anarumo and that that works like one time you get to throw the DC out and blame him one time and you bring in your chosen guy, Al Golden from the Super Bowl staff.

11:34Derrik Klassen: So you even get to sort of rekindle those vibes that works one time. And if it still sucks, Hey, the Brown family's not going anywhere. This is one of those teams where like ownership is also general management. So there's only so many people we can blame if this keeps up. And if this season goes anything like last year, I I'm, I'm thinking Zach Taylor's out in Cincinnati. That would be my guess.

11:59Robert Mays: I love this so much because this is, this is why I'm excited to have you. This is not, I wouldn't have had him on like the first 20 people that I would have mentioned. And so let me push back on a couple of things. Okay. The overall record to me is inconsequential. They were two and 14 in year one when this was the worst team in the league. And then Joe Burrow shreds his knee in year two and they win four games. Other than that, the last four years in Cincinnati, 10 and seven in a Super Bowl run, 12 and four loss in the AFC Championship game, nine and eight, nine and eight. You lose your quarterback for a huge chunk of the 2023 season.

12:34Robert Mays: And then your defense is what sabotages you in 2024 and you swap out the defensive coordinator. So I don't think, even if I have some quibbles with some of the things Zach Taylor does, and I think some of the in-game decision-making, that example you used in the Baltimore game is the perfect one. I do not think he's perfect in that area. but I do think that the way the offenses look, the way the offense has been able to evolve kind of subtly from season to season. I don't think they get enough credit for that. And I also think, and I'm curious about your take on this. I think that Zach Taylor has to eat so much shit as the head coach of the Cincinnati Bengals.

13:08Robert Mays: And I think he does a pretty good job of that. Like maintaining a modicum of culture when you have to deal with a disgruntled star every single summer because of how your front office operates. I'm actually pretty okay with the job that Zach Taylor has done for the most part. Like I can't imagine how bad it would have to get for me to be sitting there on like Christmas day being like, you know what? Zach Taylor probably needs to go. It's probably time. But you think that the Bengals might get there quicker than somebody like me would.

13:40Derrik Klassen: I never said any of this was fair, But really, it boils down to this for me. And I understand your point. Joe got hurt early in his career. He got hurt in 2023. Getting to a winning record with Jake Browning playing as much as he did is a commendable thing. But how many years of what we saw, what we've seen from these guys are you willing to waste? Joe Burrow. But do you think he's the one that's wasting it? Again, who who gets the blame? And again, it's not fair because this is a team where I mean, I get like you could fire Duke Tobin if you wanted to. But who even know like who outside of like diehard Cincinnati fans even knows that Duke Tobin is the de facto GM?

14:22Derrik Klassen: Like, again, this is a team where the family that owns the team is intrinsically involved in all of this. And who else is there to blame after you've scapegoated the D.C. If you have another statistically remarkable year that goes nowhere. I just I think that is untenable and it's it's it's not fair. But I just I'm imagining a world where this Bengals offense misses the playoffs again. And maybe it won't be Zach Taylor's fault, but maybe also Zach Taylor will make three boneheaded decisions in games that could have gone their way and didn't. And if you're nine and eight missing the playoffs instead of 10 and seven as the sixth seed, that's rough, man.

15:05Derrik Klassen: That's rough. I it's not encouraging for me.

15:08Robert Mays: I can understand getting to that point where if you have a season that falls short a little bit and see people start to feel a little bit itchy, Zach Taylor is the one that ultimately gets the blame. Here's what I'll say about the coordinator stuff. I think that some teams you see panic move defensive coordinator changes where it's like we're scapegoating this guy in order to do something to take some of the heat off me. I think there's a tiny bit of that with what happened with Luana Rumo. I do think the personnel is probably a bigger concern on that side of the ball than the coaching was. But I still think this does feel like a we need to fix that side of the ball.

15:42Robert Mays: We need to do something. So I think there's some legitimacy to the coordinator change where it doesn't feel like a panic move or something being done out of desperation. That's not what this screams to me. But if it goes wrong and now we're looking at another season that plays out the same way, I can understand where maybe some of that falls on Zach Taylor.

15:59Derrik Klassen: if Joe's healthy and and Jamar and T are available and I mean like if the Bengals look like they looked last year with I mean I get you you would hope that their defense improves but for the purposes of this if the Bengals are largely the same as last year and they missed the playoffs again do you just expect them like do you think it's justified to just run it back completely the same just like well we'll break through one of these days and Joe is uncomfortably close to 30 already, but we'll get there. I don't, I don't like the sound of that.

16:32Robert Mays: I probably wouldn't like the sound of that either, but I also just don't know if Zach Taylor is the first person that would come to mind. Like, I think that the, this is a different conversation for this team than it is for almost anybody else. Right. Because if the personnel is an issue and you feel like you have a lack of talent, then the front office is the first place that you would look to. But I think that the way the front office operates and how the front office is structured is probably as much of a culprit there as the person in charge. So if you're swapping out, they don't, it's not the general manager.

17:00Robert Mays: If you're swapping out the head of personnel for the Bengals and replacing Duke Tobin with somebody else, but he's operating with the same staff resources and all of that, why would you expect any sort of different results? And so there are some teams where I'd be like, just change the GM. Like we have to have somebody different picking the players with the way that this is going. But with Cincinnati, I don't necessarily think the person in charge is the, is the main culprit there. I think a lot of the circumstantial stuff plays into that for this team.

17:28Derrik Klassen: You're right. If this was most other teams, I'd probably be talking about the Bengals GM, but this is the world that the Bengals live in. And yeah, it's not fair to Zach Taylor, but I think it's going to be uncomfy if the Bengals find a way to miss the playoffs again. I don't expect that to happen. I think they'll be, I think they'll make the playoffs, but I thought they would make the playoffs last year too.

17:49Robert Mays: I'm going to keep this rolling with another coach and I'm just going to do the coach in the GM. rolled into one here to me this is the only place i could start it's brian dable and joe shane sure brian dable and joe shane have everything riding on this year they're heading into year four their owner publicly like did some waffling in front of reporters about the choice to bring these guys back like that press conference that de facto press conference that john mara gave where he's kind of doing the scrum and you kind of just see him being like uh you know like i just they They got to do it now.

18:22That level, that lack of just sure-footed confidence in your leadership,

18:29Robert Mays: to me, screams they have to get this done right now. Everything is on the line for these guys. They went 3-14 last year. They went 6-11 the year before that. You have an offensive-minded head coach, and I'm just looking at points scored because it's in front of me with a year-by-year record. They were 30th in the league in points scored in 2023, and they were 31st in points scored in 2024. for. You can't have a bottom two or three offense every single year with an offensive-minded head coach and expect people to keep their jobs. That's the difference between the situation for Brian Dable to me and the situation for Zach Taylor.

19:01Robert Mays: So unless this is very clearly getting turned around and not just directionally, right? Joe Shane is back because directionally, I'm sure he made an argument to John Mara of, well, look at Andrew Phillips and look at Nubin and look at Malik neighbors. Like look at the young core that we're now starting to build with. This is getting going in the right direction. We need more time to see it through. Directionally correct no longer matters for the Giants this year. Like unless there are tangible results in the win loss column, I think it would be very difficult to bring back the same group of leadership for this organization.

19:35Derrik Klassen: It's funny how much better you'd feel about the Giants if they were on a different organizational timeline. Like if they had cleaned house this spring and then had this draft where they get Abdul Carter and they add him to all of that, even I mean, even if they do the Jackson Dart thing with a new staff, you're like, OK, well, we've got three to five years to figure out what this is. And this all looks really good. Or if this was a regime, you know, if we were two years earlier in the Shane Dabble regime and the playoff appearance was a little bit more recent than it is, there would be so much to be excited about with the Giants.

20:10Derrik Klassen: But yeah, instead, it's there's just this cloud lingering over the facility where it's like, OK, I can come up with a lot of reasons to be excited by this team. But what's going to happen when these guys get the boot? And I remember you and I joked about this, Robert, months ago when the schedule came out, because I want to believe that the Giants can be an up and coming team. But then you look at the first half of the schedule And you're just like, how, how is this going to happen? I totally forgot that this had happened.

20:39Robert Mays: So let's revisit this. The schedule aside, why do you want to believe in the Giants as an up and coming team? Like, what is the root of this for you?

20:49Derrik Klassen: I mean, it's based in the pass rush for me. I just think that could be a special group. And maybe it's because the Giants have so much history with good pass rushes and they've accomplished so much with their pass rush. But that could be such a special unit. I mean, Dexter Lawrence, Brian Burns, you add Abdul Carter to that. Kayvon Thibodeau is probably not going to live up to the draft billing. But if he's the fourth best pass rusher on your team, that's pretty amazing. So you start there and that like I'm already comfortable saying I think Malik neighbor is a special man. I just he's a he is a freak.

21:25Derrik Klassen: And I just think the arrow is pointed so up for him if that's what he can do as a rookie with that Giants quarterback situation. So there's already some pieces here that you like. The offensive line is not amazing, but it could be decent if people could stay healthy. I mean, Andrew Thomas is a really good player when he's on the field. And again, like so you look at all that and you're like, yeah, there's a runway here for a nice roster. But what's going to happen if the rug gets pulled out from under the people that are building it? And that's kind of what I expect to happen. And that's I was joking with you that I was pretty bullish on the Giants.

22:03Derrik Klassen: And then I looked at their schedule and you're just like, man, how how are you even going to be close to 500 at the midpoint of the season? And if the record is that bad, how do you not throw these guys out of here before the season's even over? Like, I would be comfortable betting that Brian Dable is going to be that guy who gets to spend half the year deciding where he wants to land as an OC. Like that just feels really easy to predict right now.

22:29Robert Mays: what does the giant? Okay. Let's say just, I just want to throw this out just as a, as a data point before we start to have this whole conversation, this idea of the giants being like this, like good promising defense, I can kind of buy into it. Like if Abdul Carter is a really good player from day one, right? So you drafted Darius Alexander in the third round. Cause I think a defensive tackle depth outside of Dexter Lawrence is one of my biggest questions for this team last year. And so theoretically you've got one more body there. You go out and spend in free agency in the secondary. I spent a lot of money on Paulson and Debo and Javon Holland, hopefully to kind of plug those final two holes.

23:00Robert Mays: So I get why they would be better this year. But the Giants defense finished 28th in defensive DVOA last year. Like this idea of like the Giants being this like sneaky, promising defense. I know they made a lot of changes, but that's more of a theory than it is anything realized like an actual reality. So let's say the Giants defense is like a good unit this year. Let's say they're like the 10th best defense in the league. What realistic expectations do you have for the Giants offense? And how good does that group have to be in order for this to all come together where they win like 10 games and these guys get to keep their jobs?

23:32Derrik Klassen: And that and that plays into the conversation that we were having in probably March where, I mean, look, we just watched Russell Wilson guide a team to 10 wins playing not fun football like the Steelers were not enjoyable to watch. Really, there was like a two game stretch. Ironically, I think like when they played the Giants and the Jets, probably, which says a lot, there was like a short stretch where the Steelers looked explosive and then they just sort of plotted to the finish line. But I could imagine the Giants doing that, at least like in a vacuum. But then like you look at the actual teams on their schedule and it's harder for me to imagine, which is why I ultimately gave up on that daydream, because I was like, yeah, If you were the 2022 giants and you were benefiting from playing a little bit easier of a schedule, maybe I could talk myself into this.

24:25Derrik Klassen: I just, I don't think it's realistic anymore, which is these guys landed on my list as well, because at the end of the day, it just sounds like too steep of a hill to climb.

24:34Robert Mays: That idea of, and cause again, I think if you want to roll with Russell Wilson for the entire season, which it does seem like they want to do, like that's what, that's the story they're trying to tell you is that Jackson Dart is going to sit this year because we think the Russ is the stabilizing force. I don't know what your ceiling on offense is. If he's your quarterback, I think you can access Malik neighbors and Darius Slayton in ways you couldn't by pushing the ball down the field. I'm willing to concede all of that, but I still think that slightly below average is probably the best case scenario for you on that side of the ball.

25:02Robert Mays: And the Steelers, the Steelers were like the seventh best defense in the league last year. I know they got absolutely shredded in the playoffs and the Steelers are that kind of defense every single year. It's much easier to believe in that sort of model for the Steelers. Like they're a back half of the top 10 of the top 10 defense every single season. The giants have not done that. Like I, it's just harder for me to believe the giants are going to be that sort of defense for that sort of bill to all come together with Russell Wilson as your quarterback. So I just don't know what the path is for you to feel good by the end of the year to say, we're absolutely going to keep rolling, keep rolling with this.

25:38Robert Mays: It's just harder for me to imagine that it is for you.

25:40Derrik Klassen: I think it, it reminds me a little bit of the 24 bears where that's exactly why I'm freaking out

25:47Robert Mays: about this because everything about this feels like a bears off season. I've seen this movie

25:51Derrik Klassen: so many times, which I I'm with you at the end of the day, like it's nothing personal to those guys, but the better call probably would have been cleaning house, starting over and giving a new regime, a top five draft pick like that seems like the more linear path to success than hoping these guys can can dig this thing out of the ditch. And yeah, I mean, I'm sure I haven't looked at this, but I'm sure Dable and Shane are like the leaders in the clubhouse if you want to bet on like first coach fired, which that's a morbid thing to do. But that's where I would put my money if I cared about something like that.

26:31Robert Mays: I think they probably should be based on how the last couple of seasons have gone again about how tepid the support has been for what this regime looks like moving forward. So there was no other place to start for me. Like, I think these are the two guys that clearly on the coach GM side to me have the most at stake heading into this season. Let's get to your next one. Who else did you want to talk about? All right.

26:50Derrik Klassen: I'm just, I'm just going to go in, in order. And there are, there are some other ones I'm going to, I don't really want to get into it, but I feel like you got to mention Chris Greer and Mike McDaniel for the same reason. Oh, Mike McDaniel was on my list. Mike McDaniel was the second coach on my list. Well then let's do it then. I just, I've said this on a previous show, but if the owner's putting out a statement that he's okay with you continuing to run the team, but he's not going to accept the status quo, like a vote of confidence from ownership is bad. You don't actually want that. Like if they, if you actually had their confidence, they would just continue with business as usual instead of feeling the need to announce to the public like hey I'm not crazy I know I know that it's been bad like that you don't want that and so you do the math man like it you know the Dolphins have been pretty good clearly not good enough and if the owner feels like eight and nine and missing the postseason by the thinnest of margins is worth making a statement, that puts you on my radar as really needing to have a successful year if we're going to keep going this way.

27:57Robert Mays: I totally agree. I think that, again, there's clearly some shakiness with this group and this being the group they're going to rely on moving forward. I will say this. I do see the path forward for the Dolphins, though. Like, I do see how this could all come together for these guys to keep their jobs because it all comes down to me. If the quarterback has been healthy, this has consistently been one of the most efficient offenses in football. I know they couldn't run the ball last year, but if you're trying to lay out to the plan for me, and again, this is like earned equity where the Giants just don't have that much earned equity on the offensive side of the ball.

28:32Robert Mays: The Dolphins have that. The Dolphins have shown me consistently year in and year out. If the quarterback is healthy, they can be one of the four or five most efficient offenses in the league. So your problem last year was being able to run the ball in varied ways and run the ball downhill. You go get two new guards and you have a young left tackle. We'll see how that goes. I could see the offensive line coming together in a more physical way than it has in the past. You still have your past catchers. You still have Devon H and you still have Mike McDaniel. Like if you told me that the Dolphins stayed relatively healthy on offense and they were like the third best offense in the league, if you look at the efficiency numbers, that wouldn't seem crazy to me.

29:07Robert Mays: And then on defense, I was worried. I'm not worried. I was interested in what the plan was for this roster period, right? Like you have this aging roster with all these guys that you've really kind of pushed your chips in on. And then it doesn't feel like it was going to work out. You try on Armstead, retire as you trade Jalen Ramsey. So are you going to try to get younger and, you know, try to kind of pivot this thing? And then they go out and they sign two 30 plus corners in order to fill those spots to microwave the defense and make it competent again. So they're clearly just trying to win right now and win as many games as possible.

29:40Robert Mays: So if you told me that the guys they just signed to play corner shore up those spots, the pass rush is still good. Anthony Weaver did some interesting stuff last year. This is a slightly above average defense and the offense is really good again. And the Dolphins win 10 games. I'm willing to buy that story. I don't know what the two or three year outlook for this team is, but I could see them being confident enough in 2025 for these guys to keep their jobs.

30:05Derrik Klassen: I've talked myself into being really excited about the Dolphins. Not not because I think they're going to be that good, but I think people are just writing off the Dolphins because they're running it back with a lot of the same guys that were kind of underwhelming last year. But to being hurt was a big part of that. And the Dolphins, to me, just feel like this year's team that has to win every game, 34 to 31. And that is very, very fun. Like I'm down to watch to Tyreek and Jalen Waddle and those guys try to outscore every opponent on their schedule. And they're going to be successful a lot, by the way.

30:41Derrik Klassen: So even if they're not like a, a truly quality team, the entertainment value has a lot of potential.

30:49Robert Mays: I think the defense could be better than it looked like on paper a couple of weeks ago, right? Like Jack Jones has played some decent football recently for the Raiders, even if it's been a little volatile. Mike Hilton was still playing at a decent level last year. The problem for me is what is this team supposed to be in like a three year window? Like they're trading away draft picks. Like the pivot to kind of having a more long-term view would have made sense for me. And then they haven't really operated that way. I don't have a lot of faith in the leadership from a personnel perspective, again, as we project into the future.

31:22Robert Mays: But I do think that there is a version of this team that can be very competitive this year. So I think where I land on this is, I think Mike McDaniel is probably, it is justifiable to make a case that Mike McDaniel is the right person in charge of the Dolphins, both now and in the future. I think that case is harder to make for Chris Greer and for the way that this front office has operated. That's kind of where I land with the Dolphins.

31:46Derrik Klassen: Yeah, and I think some of that is just the breaks of football. I mean, I liked a lot of the moves they made at the time, like the trades they swung, Ramsey, Chubb, obviously the Tyreek Hill trade. You do that again 10 out of 10 times, like even without the playoff success. It was a wide, wildly successful move. just didn't click the way you needed it to to really step into the group of AFC contenders the way that you were hoping for. You know what's interesting, though? You mentioned earned equity. This really surprised me, too. You realize the Dolphins are 47 and 37 since 2020. They've last year was their first losing season since before covid.

32:25Derrik Klassen: They have the same record in the regular season as the Niners and the Rams. but we do not think about them remotely that way because the playoff success has completely eluded them. But year over year, they've been a reliably pretty good football team for a while now. But when you don't do anything in the post season, people just don't view you that way.

32:45Robert Mays: And I think that's part of my frustration here is that this feels like a very similar sort of team if things break right to what it's felt like over the last couple of years where, yeah, we have enough holes plugged with kind of aging players that if it all comes together, we can be a competitive wildcard type team. Well, then when you fall short in the playoffs, because of some of your limitations on offense, and then you still haven't built the foundation of the roster with the young foundational pieces you need, then what are you both now and over the next two to three years? So I think the dolphins could be good enough for those guys to keep their jobs.

33:21Robert Mays: I just think that they're on shaky ground as we try to project this franchise moving forward because of the way that they've operated. Like you said, I mean, the amount of draft picks they've traded away, the way they still continue to operate and how they're adding pieces. They're just a very confounding team to me. Like, I think that my confusion with them this off season, some people have taken that as pessimism, where I think this is going to be like a really bad team. That's not true at all. Like, I absolutely think they could be competent and competitive. I just don't know what the vision is for this team moving forward.

33:52Derrik Klassen: It's a weird spot because the Dolphins to me just look like a team that could use a soft reset. Like you're, you're going to be competitive with Tua and with the receivers, but they need a soft reset to fix their books, reacquire some draft capital. But again, when the owner is putting out statements, giving you a vote of confidence and threatening that you need to do more, that doesn't sound like a soft reset. So you, I don't know, meet somewhere in the middle and hopefully they can win enough to satisfy all of that.

34:22Robert Mays: It's, this is very good framing. And I think this is a good place to wrap it up. I think that that's why the success to me needs to be overwhelming this year to justify this group coming back because they do need that soft reset. They're, they keep borrowing and borrowing and borrowing, not in a way that like the saints do, but in a way that is not conducive to long-term stability. And so in order to justify this level of aggression and this approach, you need very real results. Like you need to be an 11-win team. You need it to be undeniable that this is the group that should be in charge. Because if it's on the line, because they need that soft reset organizationally, I think it would be very easy to say, it's time to turn the page.

35:07Robert Mays: Like if we're nine and eight or if we're 10 and seven and get absolutely trounced in the playoffs again, what are we working toward? So to me, they need an overwhelmingly successful season in order to justify that group coming back for another run. All right, we're going to take our first quick break and then get back with some more names. I know, I know none of us really wants to admit it, but the end of the summer is approaching. Quince can help take some of the sting out of it though, because look, when you look good, you feel good. And maybe you don't mind that the summer is over and with the fall staples that Quince can provide, you are going to look very, very good.

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39:43Derrik Klassen: All right, who's your next one here? All right, I'll move on to my quarterbacks. And I got two, I got two quarterbacks that I wanted to mention. Okay. I'm, I'm going to bet there's some overlap here, but the obvious place to start for me, there are several obvious places, but I'll just, I'll start with the guy who was drafted first, Bryce young, obviously like Bryce young, how much of last year was a mirage? How much of it is a building block? I, people are all over the map with how they feel about it. And look, I know, and I've heard a lot of people say that the second half surge quote quote unquote, was not actually that great.

40:20Derrik Klassen: Like even in the second half of the season, Bryce Young was still only 18th in the league in EPA per drop back. Like obviously he didn't take over the NFL, but how much higher can he climb with what looks like a new, you know, breath of confidence and a better supporting cast? It's not the best in the NFL at all, but it could be good enough to keep him as the quarterback, like the long-term plan in Carolina. And that's that's really all I'm looking for. Like if he can climb up and be in the top half of the league in all of the important metrics and Carolina can at least be competitive the way that they were and not looking like a JV team, which is what they looked like before he got benched, at least then you can have the conversation about extending him.

41:06Derrik Klassen: What does that look like? I think that's a really interesting question, like with where he's been in his career. is there anything he could do to push toward the top of the quarterback market after year three? I would be surprised, but I just, I just need to see continued success because again, ownership matters for stuff like this. Like David Pet Tepper is not the guy to play it too, too patient. And if this year is not an obvious improvement on where he was in the second half of last year, then we're talking about a new quarterback in Carolina. In my opinion,

41:37Robert Mays: I almost put him on my list. And it's for a similar reason to the one that you're laying out. I think that there are stages to the Bryce Young experience in Carolina. When he got the job back last year, I think it was about proving he was the guy to move forward with. Right. Are you going to play well enough for us to enter the 2025 season with you as our starting quarterback? Check. Undeniably. Like even if you have even if you're on the fence about what the second half of last year looked like. And I think that I'm a little bit more optimistic about it than some people are. He played well enough to justify walking into this season as the defined starter for the Panthers.

42:12Robert Mays: That's very different than are you our starter moving forward? Are you the guy we're building around? Are you the guy that is going to be at the center of our success? And that to me is now the lingering question. You played well enough to keep the job. Are you going to play well enough that you're going to be the starting quarterback here three, four, five years into the future? You are at the foundation of what this franchise is. That's what's at stake for him this year, in my opinion.

42:38Derrik Klassen: Yes, that's perfectly said. And like I said, he doesn't need to be a top five, eight quarterback to be that guy for me. Again, like if you're comfortably in the top half of the league and some weeks are better than others, but you're giving the team a chance to win most weeks. That's all I'm looking for. I don't I don't think it's this lofty ceiling. Obviously, you have higher expectations for a number one overall pick, but for where he's been in his career, I can't just expect the guy to jump up into that stratosphere. I just need a continuation of what we saw last year. Or, yeah, I mean, if it's not that at the bare minimum, then, yeah, then I think the conversation completely changes and you're not talking about him as as a guaranteed starter of anything next year.

43:26Robert Mays: We've talked about this. This has been a fun subject over the last decade in the NFL. This concept of the Dalton line or the car continuum, like where is the cutoff for starting quarterbacks? Where if you're above that line, you are a good enough starter to be your team's guy moving forward. If you're beyond that line or behind it, your team probably should be in the business of trying to replace you. Whether Bryce Young ends up in front of or behind that line this year, that's the major question. If he's in that group of guys with, I don't know, throw out your, it's funny because this, this group has changed.

44:01Robert Mays: Like I w the names I would have said for years would have been like, if he's among that Kirk cousins, Derek Carr, Jared golf kind of group, then that's a good thing for the Panthers. That group no longer exists. So I'm not sure exactly who to pair him with, but that type of quarterback where it's like, you are worth committing to as our starter, you are above the Dalton line. That to me is the, going to be the big question for Bryce young. Is he above that? The 2025 version of whatever that line is, who would, who is that guy now? We just did this on a show like a month ago and there's no good answer.

44:35Robert Mays: Like there's no, because it's a cluster of guys and they're all different stylistically. There is no true North as a quarterback anymore because the position has changed so much. Like these guys that were these pocket type quarterbacks that we were able to kind of graph these ideas onto the cars and cousins is they're gone now. So there's no simple, clean answer.

44:58Derrik Klassen: Completely different stylistically, but if you could be remotely like Kyler Murray, that's, that's good enough for me. That might be the right answer. You're, you're, they're not going to win the same way, obviously, maybe, but maybe it comes to mind because they're both undersized players, but the success that Kyler has had in Arizona would be enough to make me stick with Bryce Young.

45:19Robert Mays: I think that's the best answer for like, especially with Bryce Young, like who is that line for Bryce Young? I think Kyler Murray is a perfect place to land. So I like that you did this because I almost did as well. Let's stick with that draft class for my next one here. It's Anthony Richardson. Of course it is. If I didn't say Bryce, I was going to say Anthony Richardson. This one isn't complicated. Like is Anthony Richardson going to win the job first of all and second of all play well enough to keep the job moving forward you can't have more at stake in the NFL than being a starting quarterback into your second contract even if you're not a good starting quarterback but you're paid like one that's like 20 million dollars a year compared to 7 million dollars if you're a quality backup I don't know 13 million dollars is a lot to me and then if you're one of the really good ones and you're getting$45 million a year to be a back half of the league starter.

46:13Robert Mays: Like to me, there is no one who has more at stake at the position this year than Anthony Richardson. It's a very clear one to me.

46:19Derrik Klassen: Added bonus too. I think you can fold Chris Ballard into this conversation. I mean, when you step out on a limb to draft a guy with what was it, nine college starts and you take him in the top five, if it flames out, that could be a job ender. And I wouldn't be surprised if that wound up happening if he doesn't take, I would say, several steps forward.

46:40Robert Mays: Steven Holder, who covers the Colts for ESPN, used to work here at The Athletic. He had a tweet last week that, to me, was like a good summation of how the Colts should and might be approaching the quarterback competition. And it was essentially, Anthony Richardson is going to get chances to win this job. Like this idea that Daniel Jones was going to be in pole position at the start of training camp, that never would have made sense to me because that's a concession and an admission of failure if you're the front office that I just don't think you can be willing to make at this stage. Like you still have to give him every shot.

47:12Robert Mays: One, because I think it's the best thing for you with the long-term health of the franchise, but also it's the best thing for you in terms of self-preservation to make sure you're giving him every chance to win this job.

47:24Derrik Klassen: One of the things I'm most excited about starting with The Athletic is I finally have access to True Media, which I've been so jealous of for so long. The stat that I pulled out for this, I just, I wanted to see how bad it was. And among like among quarterbacks that took a significant enough number of dropbacks. So like one 50 plus dropbacks on a season, the only guys in the last 15 years who had a worse completion percentage than Anthony Richardson, late career, Josh Freeman and 2011 and 2011 Tim Tebow. And I just, it's, it's rough, man. There's a lot of room to grow if this is going to work out.

48:07Robert Mays: I don't have a ton of faith in it anymore. I think a lot of that has dwindled, but I still think if you're the Colts, you have to give this every chance to succeed and fail when you're in that position. I just don't think there's any other way that you can approach this. And if Daniel Jones is your better shot, that's a fine place to land, I guess. But I think it's going to be hard, and we've talked about this, what their season would have to look like with Daniel Jones at quarterback I think is a very tough needle to thread for the guys in charge of that team to keep their jobs. I just don't know what that looks like.

48:37Robert Mays: I don't know how good you have to be with Daniel Jones for everyone to say, yeah, let's run it back with everybody again next year.

48:44Derrik Klassen: It's hard to imagine. And yeah, and like I said, I think the whole Colts organization is interesting to me because how successful Anthony Richardson is could dictate so much about their team, but also their front office, which at this point is one of the longest tenured in the NFL. I mean, Ballard's been there for a long, long time by NFL standards. But botching something like this, this badly, if that is in fact what happens, that's tough for anybody to bounce back from. Who's your next one? I'm going to do a two for one for you, actually. And it's perfect. It's perfect for you, Robert, because the last two quarterbacks of the Chicago Bears, I think have the most at stake in this 2025 season.

49:29Derrik Klassen: And we don't have to spend a ton of time on Justin Fields. I think that goes without saying, I think this is his last true shot to be a QB one in the NFL, at least for the time being, I think it's, it's hard to imagine, but I think the jets supporting cast could be better than advertised, especially if the offensive line really takes off. I mean, if the young tackles are really good, then, then who knows? I think it's on Tanner Ingstrand, the new OC in New York to utilize Justin as a runner. Make sure you're taking advantage of the fact that this is a guy who can rush for a thousand yards in a season.

50:03Derrik Klassen: So that part is obvious, right? Like if Justin Fields isn't successful here, he's going to have to be a backup for at least a few years before he gets another opportunity like this. But I also think there is a ton at stake for Caleb Williams. And I don't think it's too early to say that. What's at stake though?

50:19Robert Mays: Like, like what is actually at stake for him this year other than reputational stuff?

50:24Derrik Klassen: I think reputational stuff can sink you when you are a quarterback of the a the talent and be like, for lack of a better term, like the hype that goes along with Caleb Williams and not to mention, Robert, the situation that he's in. Right. And I fell victim to this, to be clear. I thought I thought that the the situation around Caleb last year even with Eberflus hanging over everything and the uncertainty I thought there was enough working on the Bears offense that he could be successful right away and statistically he was but we know that it could have been so so much better so you have that go south and then to their credit the Chicago Bears did everything possible, everything realistically possible to say, we're going to fix it.

51:13Derrik Klassen: We're not going to ruin this kid's life the way that we've done to other, to other players. And you know, they, they got Ben Johnson. They got the play caller, the wonder can the hotshot coach that everybody wanted. Nobody's going to blame them ever. If this doesn't work out, they made the slam dunk hire that everyone wanted them to. They did all the stuff to the offensive line, Joe Tooney, Jonah Jackson. They drafted a weapon in the first round. What is left? Like other than the fact that he's just a young quarterback, what is left to say, here's why it didn't work. If he's not at least good.

51:46Derrik Klassen: And I don't need the bears to make the playoffs. I don't need Caleb to even like be a pro bowler. I just need him to be good. And if he's not, then we're halfway through his rookie deal, banking on talent and potential that we haven't seen utilize itself. And it's, it's not like so many other guys where it's like, well, what kind of chance did he have? This is what he had around him. This was his coach. You can't say any of that stuff about this situation. And that's why I think it's different. I think there are raised stakes because this is as good of a situation as you could ask a quarterback like this to be in.

52:21Derrik Klassen: And if he can't do it this year, I'm not writing the guy off, but I do think even if it's just reputation, I think people's opinion of him is going to take a hell of a hit.

52:32Robert Mays: Yeah. I actually do like this a lot because there's no, I don't see any sort of outcome this year where he's not the Bears starter in 2026. So when we talk about at stake in those terms, I feel like there's less at stake for him than some of the other guys we're going to discuss. But the covers and yeah, I would agree with you. But I don't think you're wrong. I'm not benching him. I don't think you're wrong though, because I think everything that you're saying about the way that we look at him and the frame, I think that absolutely could change by the end of the year, because I'm with you. last year this whole idea of i mean i don't want to get into this again but this idea of situation for a quarterback is not just who's on the offensive depth chart like it just it's not the collection of talent on the offensive depth chart there's a million layers to situation in the nfl and obviously the bears ecosystem and environment offensively the bottom fell out of it last year even if ben johnson is not the play caller and offensive architect in chicago that he was in detroit because he's now the head coach your scope changes all of that stuff there's a certain floor to what Ben Johnson is going to bring to the proceedings here.

53:34Robert Mays: No one that has had multiple years of success without an elite quarterback at the level that Ben Johnson did has ever been an outright failure as an offensive play caller. There are certain other things that can sink you, but I feel like there's a certain floor established in terms of environment with Ben Johnson and you still have the reckless amount of talent on that side of the ball where the excuses are now off the table. So even if from Ben Johnson's perspective reputationally, let's say we get to the end of the year and all of this hope about what Caleb Williams and this offense can be, if you're Ben Johnson and you know that you're giving him the chances to succeed and it still fails the way that you're seeing him and the way that you're approaching things and the way that, you know, again, it's just like, ah, maybe this guy's just not good enough.

54:17Robert Mays: And if that's the place you land, if you're Ben Johnson and this offensive staff in this organization, by the end of the year, that changes everything. And so I do think that is real stakes, even if he's going to be the starter again in 2026.

54:31Derrik Klassen: Yeah, I just I guess the stakes are like the linear path of success that you want a high pick to follow. You know, like you, of course, it's not always linear, but you would ideally want it to be that way for for a young quarterback is to slowly get better. And if it doesn't this year, I just I think it complicates things. Yeah. And technically, Ben Johnson wouldn't say this right now. But if this season is dismal, Ben Johnson could be at the combine in eight months being like, well, you know, I wasn't part of the decision to draft this guy, you know, like I got here after that.

55:07Robert Mays: How quickly is this group going to distance themselves from the quarterback, even in their own minds, if this goes south and that those are real stakes. I'm choosing not to think about that path right now.

55:20Derrik Klassen: To be clear, I don't expect that to happen. I'm a big believer in Caleb, but I was a believer last year too.

55:27Robert Mays: I have one more quarterback here. This is a very different sort of conversation, but I wanted to have it anyway. You know who I think has a lot at stake this year? Not the stakes of which we're talking about here. He's going to walk away being one of the richest players in NFL history. He's going to be a first ballot Hall of Famer. I think Aaron Rodgers has a lot at stake this year. The way we talk and think about Aaron Rodgers, what Aaron Rodgers is in the NFL canon. Aaron Rodgers' legacy, not as a football player, but as a character in the history of the league. if his last two stops and if this is it are him sinking the jets and playing like garbage and that team completely imploding and firing everybody and then him going to an organization that is the example of stability in the nfl and them falling short in part because of the way he plays and the way he acts and then we have an entire generation of people if you're a 21 year old football fan i guess that's a little old let's say you're a 15 year old football fan you never saw 2011 Aaron Rodgers.

56:28Robert Mays: Like maybe you have some glimpses of the MVP seasons in 19 and 20, and you remember some of that. But if your lasting memory of Aaron Rodgers is what he was on the jets and what he does in Pittsburgh this year, to me, that's like a stink that because of the way how public he's been with some stuff and because of how much he's out there, I think can linger with him in a way it might not with some other truly great quarterbacks. like what Peyton Manning was as a player at the end it helps because they won the Super Bowl no one gives a shit that he wasn't a good quarterback near the end no one cares about Drew Brees's arm falling off that last year in New Orleans and what he was as a player but I think because of all the other extracurricular stuff that goes on with Rodgers there is a little bit of like reputational stuff on the line for him in a way there might not be with other guys who career whose careers are kind of crystallized in amber that is a good point and my gut reaction would to be to think, eh, maybe you're overreacting.

57:27Derrik Klassen: Like when Rogers retires and he's not in the news every day anymore, I think what people will remember is the four MVPs and the Superbowl and the way that he perfected the Hail Mary. But, but to your point, if this goes South in a real way, well, not only that, I also think, I think you've lost the court of public opinion for a lot of people as well. Like so many people are sick of him at this point that if you don't give them anything to fondly remember you by over the last four years of your career, and that's what it'll be, by the way. I mean, the last great Packers season was 2021. So if you have a whole, almost a half decade of just shenanigans with nothing to show for it from a turn, you know, from a point of football success, I can see people being more reluctant to give you your flowers.

58:16Derrik Klassen: I think maybe that's not fair, but I could see it.

58:19Robert Mays: That's exactly where I land. I'm not saying it's fair, but I'm saying if this is the lingering picture we have of Aaron Rodgers for multiple years in a row with multiple organizations, does that change the way that some people view and talk about Aaron Rodgers? I think inevitably it does. I don't think they have to be some great team. I don't even think he has to play that well. But if the bottom falls out, like the Steelers version of the bottom falling out, if that happens in part because of him, I do think that follows him around for a while.

58:47Derrik Klassen: Which that's how I know it's nothing personal with Aaron Rodgers. And from what I've gathered from the last five or six years, like I don't share any of the same opinions as this guy. But nothing would make me happier than for him to turn back the clock one last time and play like, you know, 2011, 2016 Aaron Rodgers. because when he was like at his peak doing his thing, that's the most I've ever enjoyed watching somebody play football. I would be ecstatic to get that one more time.

59:21Robert Mays: People who've listened to me for a long period of time know this. Like he's my favorite player I've like ever watched. Like Aaron Rodgers at his peak and what he was when I really started doing this. So, I mean, the Grantland NFL podcast was rolling in like 2013, 2014. That 2014 season is, you know, when he won the MVP and that offense looked the way that it did. And that's really when I started talking about football in this way. And I was enamored with him just like stylistically, aesthetically, everything he brought to the position was my favorite version of quarterback play that I had ever seen and still remains to this day.

59:54Robert Mays: One of my favorite versions of quarterback play that I've ever seen. So I am predisposed to want the same thing. I just feel like so much has happened between then and now that a lot of the discourse around him has inevitably changed. And And I think it could devolve even further if this goes poorly. Yeah.

1:00:13Derrik Klassen: And, and exactly like who you, who you run into the ground matters too, because plenty of people just expect that to happen at the jets, but the Steelers are who they are and, and they have weathered so many crazy personalities going through that building and still been successful. So if this is a truly disastrous Steelers season, which I don't even know when the last disastrous Steelers season was.

1:00:40Robert Mays: I don't want you to go too far down this road because I'm saving this for another show that we're doing this week. Okay.

1:00:45Derrik Klassen: Point being, it would say a lot if Aaron Rogers is on the first awful Steelers team in several generations.

1:00:52Robert Mays: I, this is exactly how I'm looking at it. And so if that happens, then I think that it does matter for what is at stake for Aaron Rogers this year. We're going to take one more quick break and then get back with a couple more guys who have plenty at stake in 2025.

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1:02:14Derrik Klassen: That's ASPCAPetInsurance.com slash athletic football. Again, that's ASPCAPetInsurance.com slash athletic football. This is a paid advertisement. Insurance is underwritten by either Independence American Insurance Company or United States Fire Insurance Company and produced by PTZ Insurance Agency Limited. The ASPCA is not an insurer and is not engaged in the business of insurance.

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1:02:54Derrik Klassen: with the Discover Cash Back Card. It's payback time when you earn cash back on everyday purchases. Activate and earn 5 % cash back at different categories each quarter on up to$1 ,500 in purchases. That's 5 % cash back at different places each quarter, like grocery stores, on gas, and at restaurants. It pays to Discover. Terms apply. See discover.com slash 5 for details. Discover Cash Back all right what's your next one here let's roll through a couple more of these so i just i think there's a lot of interesting impending free agents that just have a lot to gain this year i've got two i mean those are my two last guys the first one that comes to mind for me and we've talked about him before but this is such a fun boomer bust season for george pickens you realize number one guy i had on my list other than the quarterbacks is george pickets he will just be turning 25 when the league year starts in March.

1:03:55Derrik Klassen: He is a remarkably young player. He's already averaged 60 catches for a thousand yards in his first three years. And again, you're talking about catching passes from Kenny Pickett, Mason Rudolph and old Russ. He's never been in a situation like this where he has a quarterback he can count on, not just to get him the ball, but consistently. And obviously everybody knows his, his tendency for extracurriculars. He loves to mix it up with guys. He's going to get in a snowball fight during the middle of a game. That's kind of what he does. But if he can just harness this talent for the next five months, he's really like he is the closest thing to a marquee receiver that could be hitting free agency like everybody else is absolutely is a timeshare guy or just a guy that hasn't done a whole lot.

1:04:42Derrik Klassen: Pickens, if this year goes great, if George Pickens is a 1200 plus yard receiver, he's going to make so much money in March and he's just got to keep it together for the next six months and it could be everything. Or it could go off the rails and maybe Pickens is the latest crazy receiver to leave Pittsburgh and not be able to focus on anything. And And maybe Dallas is the worst possible place for him. And this will all be an afterthought. But there is so much potential to, I mean, not just harness his talent, but make a boatload of money too.

1:05:18Robert Mays: Let's look at the receiver market as it's unfolded over the last couple of years. Garrett Wilson just made$32.5 million a year. DK Metcalf is making$33 million a year. Even if you go one step down from that, the Devontae Smith, Jalen Waddell group of guys is making$27,$28 a year. Calvin Ridley and Michael Pittman are at$23. So let's say conservatively, if George Pickens has 80 catches, 85 catches for 1200 yards and eight touchdowns, he's going to get paid like$28 million a year, right? That's about where it would probably land. If you look at the receiver market that is on the table to me, I can absolutely see that happening with Dak.

1:05:56Robert Mays: If he's able to harness exactly what you're talking about, I can also see a world where George Pickens has a nightmarish season away from Pittsburgh. it all falls apart for him and we get to free agency next year and he's getting some version of like the Deami Brown contract from this year, which was one year, 10 million. That's$18 million for just next year beyond the long-term stability. So we're talking like a difference of 40-ish million dollars guaranteed between those two timelines. Those are very real stakes. There's nothing intangible about that. That's real stuff that is on the line for George Pickens this year.

1:06:32Derrik Klassen: and he could probably out earn that if the Cowboys were to let him get to the market like if he had an amazing season and the Cowboys were like you know we're just we're not going to do it we don't want to tag you whatever we got enough stuff to worry about I mean if you let the Chargers of the world they just come to my mind because I know how much money they have if you let the Chargers or I don't know that happened but yes you you get my point if you let him get to the market where receiver needy team is willing to pay him it could be even more money than that or yeah I mean god that would be so depressing if we're there in March talking about George Pickens got one year nine million with up to four million in incentives like I mean I would hate it for the guy because he's really fun to watch I hope I hope this year goes great for him because it means the Cowboys offense would be really fun to watch but you wouldn't be shocked if that happened like that's not off the table i would i wouldn't be shocked but man i would be disappointed because again like just just rain it in for five months man be as crazy as you want to after somebody gives you 40 million in guarantees but you just just just rain it in until january and and it'll all be i i'd be shocked if he is like if he's on the straight and narrow and doing everything he's supposed to do and just has a bad season, that would surprise me.

1:07:54Derrik Klassen: I, cause I think it's all there for him between Dak and playing in on playing in an offense with CD lamb, like football wise. I don't think there's anything holding this guy back.

1:08:04Robert Mays: Yeah. And I think that again, his skill set message is so well with what CD is with what Dak is. I think I agree with you, unless there's like an implosion. I do think he's probably going to play well enough to gain a lot of interest. And even if he's tagged the projected tag next year is 28 million bucks. So the difference between that and a one-year prove it deal is an exceptional amount of money. So George Pickens was the first player I had on my list. The next guy I had was Jalen Phillips. I think if we're talking about guys who could either be one-year prove it guys or paid at the top 10 of players at their position, George Pickens is right there.

1:08:41Robert Mays: And I think Jalen Phillips is right there. Jalen Phillips at his best has looked like a star level player. We got addressers making$40 million a year. We'll see what Micah Parsons gets paid. If Jalen Phillips is healthy this year, and he's somebody that picks up 12 sacks in that group, and he hits free agency, Jalen Phillips has a chance to make a shitload of money. If Jalen Phillips gets banged up again, and we get to the end of the year, and he's played six games, and he's a free agent, there's a chance he's on one of those one year, $9 million with incentive deals. So he, to me, outside of Pickens, was the first player that comes to mind when you look at the potential range of outcomes for him this year?

1:09:18Derrik Klassen: I think your guy has bigger stakes than my guys, because I had two other edge rushers. I think Phillips is more interesting because the injury history probably gives you more variance in what he might get paid. I would throw Nick Benito and Odafe Owe in there as well, just because, I mean, these are guys that really came on last year. I get Benito at least has two years of production that he can fall back on. OA really broke out for the best year of his career last year. But depending on what happens here, if you can maintain or improve on that, again, guys with double digit sack seasons just don't hit the market very often.

1:09:56Derrik Klassen: And you're setting yourself up to potentially do that, or at the very least, get tagged and then negotiate a huge contract with your current team. But I think those guys are at the top of the list of like, if it goes well for them, they're really changing their earning potential in the spring.

1:10:13Robert Mays: Benito almost I almost put Benito on my list but again I feel like he's done enough where I don't think the range is quite as big as it is for somebody like Jalen Phillips like yeah maybe the range for Benito is like a difference between 35 million and 25 million depending on the type of season that he has but for Phillips it's to me like top of market stuff or barely getting paid anything at all did you have any other players that fit into this category for you that you wanted to mention?

1:10:40Derrik Klassen: As long as we're doing this, I just throw in the combo of reek woolen and Duran bland. I told you, I had all reekwollen is a really good one. I had all weekend to think about this. I could go all day, but yeah, reekwollen and Duran bland are both. I don't think anybody is confusing those guys with like the top of the class of, you know, the cream of the crop of cornerbacks. They're both really relying on one outstanding year. Reek had a phenomenal year as a rookie. Bland had his crazy interception season a couple of years ago. They need one more good year to justify the type of contracts that they would probably prefer because it's been up and down other than that one season.

1:11:18Derrik Klassen: So I've got an eye on that there. Obviously, they're not first round picks, so you don't have to worry about the option or anything like that. So how well this season goes for both of them could determine like, are you capable of asking for a contract near the top of the market or do you kind of have to slot in where you can where you can find space so i i think they're both worth watching for the same reason yeah

1:11:40Robert Mays: if you're requel and are you getting an uptick on the pulse in a debo contract from this year or are you having to settle for something that is much more in the middle of the pack i think that'll be a really interesting question he's one of those guys where the talent is just so outrageous that he feels like one of the swing players of the entire season like if he plays at a really, really high level. I feel good enough about the rest of that Seahawks defense where I think we're talking about a potentially game-changing sort of unit. So both of those guys are really good. Rico is a perfect name to mention.

1:12:09All right.

1:12:10Robert Mays: That is all we've got for today. As always, sincerely appreciate you guys listening. We will be back with two more shows this week and then another one coming this weekend. If you missed our show on Saturday, every Saturday, plus I think one Sunday because of how many of these we're doing. We're going to have our downloads with our athletic beat writers. We had four of them on the first, three of them on the first show. And we're going to have at least, I think like 18, 19 more over the next month or so. So every single Saturday, we're going to be having one of those notebooks with our beat writers coming your guys' way based on my training camp travels.

1:12:51Robert Mays: I did the West Coast first. I am now in the Southeast. I was in Atlanta yesterday, going to be in Tennessee, going to be in Jacksonville. So we're going to be visiting with all of our beat writers and all of the teams that I'm visiting, if we have one at the Athletics. So if you miss that on Saturday, please be on the lookout for that one and for the next one. Other than that, we got our four shows a week coming to you guys for the foreseeable future. Very much looking forward to it and really excited to have you aboard, buddy. Very happy to have you here and I cannot wait for how the season is going to go.

1:13:20Derrik Klassen: I'm so excited. This is just the tip of the iceberg, man. Looking forward to it.

1:13:24Robert Mays: All right, guys, that's all we got for today. Thank you so much. We will talk to you very soon.

1:13:56Derrik Klassen: We'll see you next time. on gas, and at restaurants. It pays to Discover. Terms apply. See discover.com slash 5 for details.

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