Who has the most at stake in 2026?

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1:17Robert Mays: That's Alienware.com slash deals.

1:47Robert Mays: that are entering a crucial year. Always enjoy. This is kind of a table-setting conversation as we kick off the training camp part of the calendar. This show was no exception. Me, Dave, and Derek talking about who has the most at stake in the NFL this season. Let's get to it right now.

2:14Robert Mays: How many straight years we've done this show as one of the first episodes of training camp, but it's been at least a few, including an appearance by Dave Hellman before he was a member of this cast. I believe I talked, I think I was at the Chargers facility one year when we did this show, and I always seem to do it on the road. I vividly remember doing it in Nashville last year with you, and so it has become a yearly thing going back even before you were on this show, David, but I'm excited to dig into this again. We're going to talk about who has the most at stake heading into the NFL in 2026.

2:48Derrik Klassen: Something about these shows burn themselves into my brain, probably because it's just such a great crystallization of where you are in a given year, talking about the different paths that things could go down during the course of an NFL season. Some of it ages extremely well. Some of it ages pretty poorly, which I've got a couple of suggestions for this show based off of my predictions from last year, because funnily enough, we're in the same place with several people this year as we were last year. So we can get into that. But yeah, it's a show that lends itself to a lasting mental image, I guess.

3:25Robert Mays: We don't always share our names beforehand, but because I thought we'd have some overlap on this show, I had Katie send me the names that you guys sent her this morning. I was so happy to see some of the names on your guys' lists because even ones I didn't include are guys I thought about and really wanted to talk about. And so I'm very excited to dig into this. Let's start with a little bit of a callback from last year's show. This is a name neither of you had, and I'm kind of shocked you didn't. But he was on yours last year, Dave. I'm starting with Zach Taylor.

3:59Derrik Klassen: Like, wait, that was one of the guys I wanted to bring up. And I left him off the list that I sent to Katie, but I was going to mention it just because I started this show with him last year. and you very, very smartly were like, are you sure something's at stake for Zach Taylor? It's the Bengals after all. And you were completely right. So I left him off my list because I was like, well, it is Cincinnati. Maybe he'll just keep coaching forever no matter what happens.

4:27Dave Helman: I feel like maybe I left him off for like, not the like, I feel like last year was like, oh, they're Cincinnati. They're not going to fire him unless it's a disaster. And now I think the reason maybe I left him off was just like, I feel like I know exactly what this team is. And there's a chance that, yeah, if it goes poorly again and they missed the playoffs again, that yes, he would be fired. But there's just like a, I feel like the Bengals in a lot of ways, I've kind of just set them aside as like, I feel like I've figured them out relative to where I'm still at with a lot of the other teams in the NFL.

4:53Robert Mays: I think the Bengals situation and the climate around the Bengals heading into this year is dramatically different than it was even a year ago. I think there are two specific things I would point out. Your franchise quarterback, who everyone in that media market, justifiably so hangs on everything he says at those press conferences. I think he's very pointed in what he says. I think he's very intentional in what he says. And I think people run with some of that stuff, him coming out this off season and saying, this is the best roster we've ever had since I got here. There's no coming back from that.

5:25Robert Mays: That's one where that is in cement as we head into the year. That's one. And then I think creating that roster, going out and making the Dexter Lawrence trade, We're in a different place with this team. And I think there's even a different level of urgency than there's been over the last few years for the organization, for Duke Tobin and for Zach Taylor. And so where Dave, I felt a year ago, what could possibly happen for Zach Taylor to lose his job? I no longer feel that way. I think overall, there is a level of urgency in that building with that team that there just hasn't been even over the last few seasons.

6:00Derrik Klassen: I mean, I think you're absolutely right for the record. And I just didn't want to bag on Zach Taylor for a second consecutive summer, but it is something worth mentioning. And the Dexter Lawrence trade for me is really what puts it over the top. Obviously you want to keep your quarterback happy and, and Joe's comments are going to carry a lot of weight, particularly with the history of quarterbacks in that market in particular, but going out and doing something like getting Dexter Lawrence. Yeah. Yes. I am calling back to Carson Palmer for the record. I'm not ready. I'm not ready to put that on Joe yet, but you're crazy if it's not hanging out in the back of your mind.

6:37Derrik Klassen: But the Dexter Lawrence thing, like last year, you could maybe make the argument of especially a team where the owner is the GM. You say, hey, do do the best with what you can. We're working against this. We're working against that. And we're not going to hold it against you if something goes wrong. What really is this the excuse after what the Bengals have done this offseason? And that's not to say they're like the preseason favorite or anything, but you made a swing like Dexter Lawrence. You added real deal players at multiple levels of your defense and free agency. There's no excuse for this team not at least being in the mix.

7:15Derrik Klassen: And that's what's been so disappointing about the Bengals. I know some of that is injury, but this just isn't a team we should be shaking our heads at in mid-October. Like, oh, man, what went wrong here? and so they should absolutely be in the playoff mix be a team that's in in it at the end preferably making the postseason and yeah I think some of that stuff just just makes it feel like all right there's nothing else to lean on here if you're Zach Taylor and I feel like too there's a lot of

7:45Dave Helman: you know the buck stops with the head coach for both sides of the ball obviously but the defense is you know he's more of an offensive coach and they brought in a lot of players on defense they should be better on that side of the ball i feel like because they didn't really do anything on offense like they're i mean and it's a good offense right the offensive line is better than it's been probably the entire time that joe burrow has been there t higgins and jamar chase are still as good as ever they have a good running back the tight end room should be a little bit better if eric all comes back healthy next year like they this should be an environment that they can be the second or third best offense in the nfl and they've been that in patches when they've had their guys healthy but Zach Taylor and the offense like needs to be that for this team to be who they want to be like it's if they're in a situation where they're a good but the seventh best offense like in a lot of ways you would look at and be like oh they you have a top 10 offense that's good enough but that's not good enough given the expectations that we have for this team and what we've seen from them before like they've been better than that before and so if they're not that to me is where I think you get a lot of pressure on him I also think that the overall

8:44Robert Mays: evolution of the offense plays into this conversation a little bit because I've said this before. I think there have been stretches of the Zach Taylor tenure where they have done an underrated job of tweaking and retooling things based on the structure they want to play with. Remember that? I think it was the 2022 season, that Saints game early in the year when you really felt like them click into that shotgun gap scheme run game. And it was a really good run game. They didn't get enough credit for some of that stuff over the years. But I think there's been a narrative consistently where it looks the way that it does because the quarterback wants it that way and so the staff kind of feels like they're in a little sidecar next to joe burrow as he's driving here well they've been i think pretty open about the idea that things are going to look different this year we're going to evolve it's going to be a little bit more scheme heavy if that falls flat on top of some of just the broader wins and losses results about this team then i think the buck stops with him in two different places and with the defense last year they were so young and so I think you kind of excuse a little bit of a misstep because it's like how good could they possibly be they're riding with the kids they're kind of like let's just hang on to our hats and see if we can get by that is not the case anymore when you make that trade when you spend the way that you did the results have to happen and I think that's where we are with this team is the results have to happen now in a way where they didn't necessarily over the last couple

10:07Dave Helman: years i think what i'd be curious about with that to that point of like them finally reshaping the offense because like you said they've always done good at tinkering but it's been the same offense like it's generally a lot of the same stuff they've just tinkered really well over the years

10:20Robert Mays: and i think it mostly will be now too just to be clear i think this will be a this will be a heavier tinker. I don't think it'll be like a full scale. We are changing what we want to be there. That thing for a reason.

10:33Dave Helman: Right. Because the quarterback is very good at it. And again, when you have two receivers who can do what they do, you can get away with some stuff. I do wonder, though, like when teams go through. Like wholesale changes, and again, this might not be that extreme, but on one side of the ball, it's often teams are able to survive some of the ups and downs for whatever that's going to be through week 10 week 11 week 12 because you either have insane security from being who you are like Sean McVay can change the whole offense whenever he wants to because there's proof of concept and he's he always it always ends up good or you're like a first year head coach where it's like yeah of course I have a runway like this is the first year we're doing it Zach Taylor is in either of those things and so I wonder like how long into the season do they like if it's not good or what they want it to be like by week seven do they just go back to all the old shit and it's like ah Joe Burrow being gone and do whatever you want or do they have like the wherewithal to withstand some of the ups and downs and get to like week 13 and be like, no, we are seeing this through because we believe we're a January team and we need to get enough reps of this that it's going to matter by the time we get there.

11:34Robert Mays: It's a great thing to bring up. How much staying power and how much resilience do they have in some of those changes? Because it's not about how good it looks in week four. It's about can we be really competitive by the end of the year? But when your job is on the line and you feel a little bit uneasy and uncertain because this is new, do you retreat back into what's familiar? Because you know that at least works to an extent. That's a great point. I think it's going to be something that's worth keeping an eye on as we get a little deeper into the season with this team. All right, we can't spend 10 minutes talking about every guy, just letting you guys know.

12:02Robert Mays: We're talking about three people before we get out of here. So the first name on Derek's list is also on Dave's list. It's another coach, and it is Todd Bowles from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which I don't think it's an accident that both of you guys had him. Derek, why was Todd Bowles the first name that you wanted to talk about on this show when it comes to who has the most at stake this year?

12:23Dave Helman: And I feel like to some degree, this could be Bowles or Baker, however you want to do it. It just feels like the Bucs are in a spot where we know they're not a bad team, but it's a matter of like, how can they reach their ceiling? And are they going to be able to get there? And the reason I picked Bowles over Mayfield is like, if both of them have a mediocre season, somebody is going to pay Baker Mayfield to be their starting quarterback again. I'm not so sure Todd Bowles would be able to get another chance at a head coach and that's why it feels to me there's more at stake for him and a lot of it too has been he had he had been there for a while he was with the Bucks for a while obviously takes over the head coaching job once Arians leaves the defense has not really been the same since it was early on in those points it was it was fine in 23 like it was still pretty good and in 24 and 25 it has really fallen off and I don't think that that is all Todd Bowles' fault.

13:12Dave Helman: Like the talent on that team, they've lost a lot of edge guys. Like the cornerback room, I think, had been really up and down until last season. And the linebackers have been... Yes, and banged up. Like Kalijah Kansi missed a lot of last season. Like he was a big sack getter for them. Like there have been reasons to explain it. But if Todd Bowles is going to like save his job and show that this version of the Bucs can still work, I think him and his defense needs to get back to playing at like a top 10 level. And I believe that they can, like, I think the defensive talent there, like, I mean, they're turning over.

13:43Dave Helman: You don't say. Yeah, they turned over like almost the entire front seven outside of Vitavia, basically. So it better be better. But I really do think that they can get there. But he's got to do it. Like if they're only the 13th best defense again next year and the offense still has some of its ups and downs because no Mike Evans and, you know, new offensive play caller, that's not enough. Like they need to be like the seventh best defense in the league again. And, you know, we'll see if he can get there.

14:10Robert Mays: I have numbers to back this up. I probably could look them up. But just anecdotally, it also feels like the defenses deteriorate over the course of the year. And it's by the end of the season when it just feels like they're getting absolutely gashed consistently. And that feels like a problem, too, where you have this, like, really pressure-heavy, blitz-heavy defense. And then it just feels very volatile. And I think that's part of the issue is that if teams are figuring you out over the course of the year and it feels like the defense is getting worse as the season goes along, that's the last place you want to be when you have a defensive-minded head coach.

14:45Robert Mays: And so I'm with you. And I think that among the kind of stakeholders in that organization, Baker we'll get to in a second because there's a separate Baker conversation to be had. But if this team is not a playoff team again, if they're eight and nine and they miss eight and nine might win the NFC South. But if they're eight and nine and they miss the playoffs, Jason Light's not losing his job. Right. I mean, I think we can all agree that he has done a good enough job as the GM and he has a high enough reputation, a good enough reputation where he will be sticking around, even if this team falls a little bit short.

15:13Robert Mays: I think if this season is disappointing in Tampa, the guy that is going to wear a lot of that is Todd Bowles.

15:21Derrik Klassen: the main reason Todd made my list is people have been dissatisfied with him during the good times yes like when the Buccaneers were winning the division year over year there when he first got hired he's still he's the classic case of the you know he's a defensive play caller defensive minded head coach he's old school he's not aggressive he doesn't subscribe to any of the new trends in the NFL that display his game day value the way that you get from some of the, you know, the offensive play calling head coaches. And so if, if you're not getting that and, and getting the demonstrable difference on game day and the defense is slipping.

16:01Derrik Klassen: Yeah. People were not overly satisfied with Todd Bowles during any of the years where it was going well. I mean, there was a not small number of Buccaneers fans that wanted to give Liam Cohen the head coaching job and not let him leave for Jacksonville. So if that's how it was when the Bucs were winning, it's just hard to imagine he's going to survive another season like last year.

16:23Robert Mays: Let's stay in Tampa with Dave's first guy. And that, like Derek just mentioned, is the quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I think you can make an argument, Dave, that when it comes to like literal what's at stake, like dollars, Baker Mayfield is maybe near the top of this list when we're talking about him making$50 million on an extension next year if this goes well. And we'll see. Maybe he gets paid before the season. Maybe they come to an agreement. But if they don't, we're talking about maybe he plays well enough to get a markup of the Daniel Jones deal versus he's now a stopgap $20 million one-year quarterback if things don't go well.

17:00Robert Mays: There is a big delta between what Baker Mayfield could get paid this year based on how things go if he does not get this contract figured out before the season.

17:07Derrik Klassen: I'm fascinated by something Derek said when we were talking about Todd. And I, I agree with you, Derek. Like even if, if this year is pretty forgettable, somebody would prop would be willing to pay Baker Mayfield to step in and at least compete to start if not outright start. But yeah, what does that price tag look like? Like, let's say Baker basically has the 2025 season all over again. what are you willing to pay him to come in and be your starter? Like, Hey, is that enough to just, you know, would the Pittsburgh Steelers or the Carolina Panthers be like, yes, we want Baker and we'll pay him.

17:46Derrik Klassen: I don't know about the Panthers, but yeah, well, yeah, that's a great point. The Panthers. I don't think the Panthers is happening. That's a, that's a valid point, but let's,

17:54Robert Mays: yeah, let's just, I'm not writing that off. I'm not right. Those two teams. And then Arizona is the other team I would throw out there in terms of like, if we just need a quick solution, There will be teams that are in the market for Baker services next year. Considering what the Panthers have been there already.

18:07Dave Helman: It's kind of why I'm questioning it.

18:09Robert Mays: Steve Wilkes isn't there anymore. So that's true. I mean, that's clearly the guy goes a long way and making people do things that you wouldn't think they would do. Derek.

18:17Derrik Klassen: Fair enough. I'm just I'm really interested by what it looks like if this year is not good, because if he's if he's pretty good this year, then, you know, I saw a report last week that he's not afraid of the franchise tag. So maybe the Bucks could do that or, or he gets an extension done and it would be an impressive number if he plays well, even if it's not like top of the market, it would be a good number. But if this is a mid year, that, that is more interesting to me. I mean, I'm rooting for Baker Mayfield cause I love the guy as a player, but it's more interesting to think what that looks like.

18:52Derrik Klassen: If he's kind of got a course correct again, the way he did on his way to Tampa Bay. I mean, no, I'd be shocked if he couldn't get better than a$3 million deal. I don't think that's going to happen again. But the conversation gets really interesting if he doesn't significantly raise his level of play from where he was in the back half of last year.

19:13Robert Mays: The quarterback that this reminds me of a little bit and the amount of money and the type of commitment you might be making to somebody at this point in their career is the Lions paying Jared Goff the way they did a couple of years ago. I think the key difference with that is that when the Lions paid Jared Goff, the trajectory was all the way up. I mean, we were like every single year he was getting better. Every single year that offense was getting better. That's not what's happened with Baker and the Bucs offense. And so you committing like real money to a guy clearly in the back half of his career, over 30, that is not a top five ish quarterback.

19:49Robert Mays: I think that there's real danger to that. And we've talked a lot about it. And so whether the Bucs are willing to do that and what their line in the sand is with Baker based on the way that he plays this year, I think is a really, really interesting and sticky place.

20:03Dave Helman: And Goff is a really interesting one to put him up against, too, because Goff, his game has like limitations, right? Like he's not the greatest deep passer. He's not going to move for you and all this stuff. But you know what you're getting. Like, it's very obvious what the offense is supposed to be. It's very obvious what he's good at. It's very obvious. Like he generally doesn't make that many mistakes. Like, you know what you're getting. Baker's game, I think maybe has a higher ceiling at times and he can scramble and he can chuck it down the field, but it's more volatile because of the way he plays and because he's going to get banged up.

20:32Dave Helman: He's going to run into sacks. He's going to throw more picks. Like there's a little bit of like you can get the 2024 season where it's like, holy shit, he's throwing 40 some odd touchdowns. Or you can get some of what last year was where he gets a little bit banged up. He's forcing throws. He's not able to get as much out of his arm. And I think for that reason, that makes it a little bit trickier to pay a guy like Mayfield unless he's, again, coming off of another. If it's closer to 24, he's obviously going to get paid. But again, if it's 25, he's probably like, I think I still think even if it's like, if he plays again, like last year, I still think he gets closer to like 25, 30 million.

21:05Dave Helman: He was still 12th in QBR last year. I just think that he could potentially make like 50 plus if he has a great year. And that is, that's like you said at the top, that's a lot of money at stake for a guy. For the last time, he'll probably get paid like that.

21:17Derrik Klassen: The way he's wired is what makes him one of my favorite players. And it's also why I live in fear that he's going to get beat to shit and not play very well in any given year.

21:29Robert Mays: I'm really glad. So this show, we have another show coming a little bit later this summer that we did last year that I really liked. We talked about last year about quarterbacks that were kind of at a crossroads in their careers. And if you go back and listen to that show, I actually think it was pretty prescient, like the guys we chose to talk about and how important those moments were. Kyler Murray was on that show. Trevor Lawrence was on that show. And there really were like divergent paths for those guys based on how last year went. Like the Jags had a top five passing offense in the back half of the year.

21:57Robert Mays: I think it's we probably and should feel a little bit differently about Trevor Lawrence now than we did heading into last year. Kyler Murray was at a crossroads in his career. There are a lot of younger quarterbacks that I think fit that treatment that we'll talk about a little bit later this summer. C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young. Neither of you guys had any of those guys on your list. You completely understood like the gap between the two show ideas in a way that I deeply appreciate.

22:21Derrik Klassen: Well, I took some of this really literally and Bryce Young and CJ Stroud had their options picked up. So something, something horrific would have to happen for them to not be. Well, first of all, like that money is guaranteed anyway. So like they're going to make that money and they can, you know, go with the best next best option after that. So like those guys have things at stake and they are definitely at a crossroads, but it wasn't, it's not as urgent to me in the case of, of guys like that.

22:51Robert Mays: They fit that conversation much better than this one. And I was very glad to see that you guys bucketed it that way. Cause that's exactly how I was thinking about it. All right, let's take our first quick break and potentially come back and chat about a quarterback, another quarterback that does have a lot at stake this year.

23:08Derrik Klassen: it's smart to always have a few financial goals and a really smart one you can set earning cash back on what you buy every day and with discover you can get this discover automatically matches all the cash back you've earned at the end of your first year seriously all of it and we trust you to make smart decisions after all you listen to this show see terms at discover.com credit card

23:37Robert Mays: he was on my list he was on dave's list and again we talk about the dollars at stake for somebody heading into this nfl season we have to talk about kyler murray i mean there's a chance that kyler murray is making 40 million bucks next year as the viking starter there's a chance that kyler murray is making 5 million 7 million bucks as somebody's backup next year and so in terms of like actual dollars, there's a chance that Kyler Murray has more financially at stake this season, Dave, than potentially any other player in the entire NFL.

24:10Derrik Klassen: I do feel like I have to say, and this, I mean, this obviously applies to Baker as well. Kyler Murray has made$170 million in career earnings. So he's going to be okay. However this goes, but the earning potential is absolutely insane. And, and, but I think what's more interesting for me, and we were actually talking about this before we started recording the show is what this could mean for Kyler Murray's career and again I lived in Dallas when Kyler started at Allen and he's arguably the best player in Texas high school football history like he's he won everything you could win he won the Heisman Trophy he was amazing in college he was drafted number one overall he's been and he's like Like even with his ups and downs and there was plenty of bad in Arizona, he's been a starting franchise quarterback in the NFL since 2019.

25:03Derrik Klassen: And now we are at the crossroads where this season goes well. He's on a big contract, probably starting for the Minnesota Vikings, or at least somebody wants him to start for them next year. This is probably it if it doesn't go well, at least for the time being. Like if this does not go well, now you're talking about the Baker Mayfield route where you got to earn your way back into the good graces of a team and play on. I mean, he's playing on a really cheap contract this year, but that comes in the context of the Cardinals paying him a shitload of money to go away. If this season doesn't go well, he's signing for backup money.

25:40Derrik Klassen: He is going into a room to be the voice in a younger quarterback's ear, probably. So this is a real this is such a crossroads for Kyler Murray in terms of are you going to remain a franchise quarterback and be in that hierarchy wherever you land? Or are you about to be a different sort of quarterback? And do you have to make peace being that type of guy, which I think is really interesting because Kyler Murray has been like I said, he's been it since he was like 13 or 14 years old. And I think that's a lot at stake for a guy like that when you're talking about if this season doesn't go well, you're holding a clipboard for the foreseeable future.

26:21Dave Helman: It definitely changes the math. Obviously, if this year goes well, he's going to get paid 40 some odd million again. I don't feel like unless this year is a disaster, though, that this is it. Teams are always going to give the number one overall pick with that kind of arm, like too many chances, like to a fault, probably. and I do think that this probably obviously lowers like his he's not going to be able to sign next time with a roster as good as the Vikings but some Jets like team is going to give him a chance again like it just feels like first overall picks like that get as many chances until they are truly like

26:53Robert Mays: completely nuked and terrible I wonder if that's true because I think with him it's about more than what's happening on the field. I think there are going to be teams that when they're weighing their options and they're considering it a dice roll anyway, think about his reputation, some of the stuff that comes along with it and ask themselves, is this really worth it? Like, is this sort of dice roll on this guy really worth it? He hasn't been good in a couple of years, all the stuff that comes along with it. I wonder how many chances he gets compared to some of the other guys that have been highly drafted players.

27:29Robert Mays: I have no idea. I'm not sure where that lands, But I think there's more going on than he's talented. Let's give it a shot.

27:36Dave Helman: Well, I think sometimes, though, there are like two or three quarterback spots in a given year that are dice rolls, like Sam Darnold, whatever it's going to be. And then I think there are some that like this team just needs a person to play quarterback. And I do feel that like somebody would continue to sign him for that.

27:55Robert Mays: That's 12 million bucks, though, compared to like 45 million. That's the difference. Right. Like there's a huge difference between those two things.

28:03Dave Helman: There's a huge difference. But again, I don't think that he would sign as a backup as I think is, I think my only stipulation.

28:09Robert Mays: Cup is different than what I'm saying. I think, I think the, the contract I'm, we're in the same place where it's like, it's the, all right, let's see if this works out. You'll nominally be our starter heading into training camp. Here's$15 million. I think that's more likely than he's a backup quarterback somewhere, but that's a drastically different thing than even what's being heaped on him right now.

28:30Derrik Klassen: Mm hmm. This is also this is just this is my own personal opinion. You don't have to agree with me if you don't want to, because everybody in the NFL was a great player before they got there. But like, for instance, Terod Taylor was a sixth round pick who had to claw even for an opportunity and didn't have a chance to start that many games before he ultimately found success. like when a guy like that winds up signing with a bad team to maybe start for a month that that happens every single year like I said Kyler Murray before he like when he was a high school sophomore it was like this is going to be the best college prospect like he's going to be the number one prospect coming out of his high school class he can go wherever he wants to and then he does that and then lo and behold he's the best player in college football And even though he's 5 '10", he's the number one pick in the draft.

29:24Derrik Klassen: And like, it's just, it's very stark for me where a guy who has checked that box at every level of his career, now we're signing with the Jets to start for a month before they give the rookie a chance. Like that's, that's a harsh come down when you look at the totality of Kyler Murray's career. And I just think that juxtaposition is, is really interesting.

29:43Dave Helman: I think the best comparison I might make, and this feels weird to even say it, Carson Wentz got an unbelievable amount of opportunities to continue to be starting quarterbacks for people. It feels like the league would try to do that with Kyler Murray until the wheels completely fell off.

30:00Robert Mays: I like this, though, because so here's the thing. And Carson Wentz has his own personality, locker room stuff that crept over the course of his career. But part of the reason that Carson Wentz got that opportunity in Indianapolis is that Frank Wright was willing to stand on the table and say, I will ride for Carson Wentz. who's willing to do that for Kyler Murray? Is somebody willing to do that for Kyler Murray? And I think that's one of the things that complicates this a little bit.

30:27Dave Helman: I mean, I guess if Cliff gets hired for a head coaching job again, that's his best chance. There it is.

30:33Robert Mays: Let's stick in Minnesota because both of you guys had this person on your list. And this was the name where I was just like, I like that we're going here. I didn't have the balls to do it. And I wasn't sure if we had gotten to this place. But Derek, you had Kevin O 'Connell on yours. And I think that's really interesting because we can talk about what at stake means in these terms. I think Kevin O 'Connell will be the coach of the Vikings next year. But I think the way we talk about Kevin O 'Connell, the way we think about Kevin O 'Connell, the way the reputation that he has, that to me in a way feels like what's at stake for him this season.

31:10Dave Helman: well I think that's at stake and I think the year will probably go well enough that I agree he will probably be the head coach next year but this is the first time in his tenure I think where I'm like I don't know man like there is a chance that at least this goes poorly enough like because even heading into last year we all thought the roster was great and stuff but we all knew there was a chance that it's like we have no idea what we're gonna get it out of JJ McCarthy maybe this just isn't good enough and that's exactly what happened but we're not pinning that all on Kevin O 'Connell And I think to it, I would say, like, I don't even think that this is necessarily me not having faith in Kevin O 'Connell as a coach.

31:42Dave Helman: Like, I think he's a good coach. It's just that sometimes, like, the buck stops with the head coach. And at a certain point, if you've got all these seasons where, like, obviously you have the Sam Darnold thing, they don't end up bringing him back. The J.J. McCarthy thing goes as poorly as it does. And then if he can't fix Kyler Murray and the whole thing is that he's this, like, quarterback whisperer, the offense is going to be great. and you only win, let's say they win eight games and the offense is the 20th in the league and the defense is like pretty good again. That might get him fired. And like, even if we think that like a big part of the issue is Kyler Murray not playing well, part of his value is supposed to be that you can get everything out of the quarterback.

32:19Dave Helman: And so again, like at stake is kind of like how you interpret it. Cause like chances are, even if he gets fired after this season, he'll be a head coach by 2030 at the latest. Like if you'll get another chance, It's just that I think potentially this run of it and like the shine on him right now, I do think that there's a chance that that falls away.

32:37Derrik Klassen: I go back to my favorite stat, which is that the Vikings had the 11th best Super Bowl odds heading into last season with an unseen rookie. Who's the thumbnail on J.J. McCarthy was like he barely played and he definitely never played from behind in his like entire college career. but such was the reputation of Kevin O 'Connell that you could talk yourself into thinking that the Vikings could win the Superbowl last year. And now like, look at where they are now with a very, very similar roster. And I just, I think this year is very important for Kevin O 'Connell. I like, I like that framing because I do think she would have to go real sideways for him to get fired.

33:19Derrik Klassen: I think, but heading into last year, we were talking about Kevin O 'Connell as the guy who could make any quarterback work. And he got results out of Josh Dobbs and Kirk Cousins played his best football when he was there. And he made Sam Darnold a viable guy that signed for franchise money. If this season doesn't go well, then the two things we know for sure about Kevin O 'Connell are he's the last guy in the building other than ownership who had a hand in drafting J.J. McCarthy, and he let Sam Darnold walk out the door because of that. So the best quarterback that he's had his hands on in the last few years plays for another team and won a Super Bowl, by the way.

33:59Derrik Klassen: And if they don't get something out of Kyler Murray or I'll even throw in J.J., whatever, if they don't get something out of the quarterback position this year, then I think that that shine is firmly off of Kevin O 'Connell's apple compared to where we were a year and two years

34:14Robert Mays: ago. The Darnold thing to me is not even just about letting him walk out of the building. It's that I think a lot of the reputational stuff with how we talk about and think about Kevin O 'Connell with him being this, the quarterback is like touched by God as soon as he gets to work with Kevin O 'Connell was Sam Darnold. And then immediately after leaving Minnesota, Sam Darnold plays really, really good football, arguably better than he played in Minnesota. And the Seahawks win the Super Bowl. And so it completely reframes what the 2024 season is in the broader context. I just looked this up while you guys were talking.

34:48Robert Mays: Since 2022, when Kevin O 'Connell got there, where do you think the Vikings rank in EPA per play on offense on plays where J.J. McCarthy was not on the field? So this is without the J.J. McCarthy plays.

35:03Dave Helman: 12. That's what I was going to say, 12. 18th.

35:08Robert Mays: wow okay yikes and some of that you mentioned josh dosh josh dosh nick mullins right cousins was here for the back half of that season last year they were banged up even when mccarthy wasn't playing there's a lot of stuff to take into consideration with that but it's 18th and we talk about the kyler cardinals the kyler cardinals are 19th and if you put the jj mccarthy snaps back in there those flip the cardinals are 18th and the vikings are 19th it only goes from 18th to 19th with the JJ McCarthy plays in there. He hasn't played that much. And so I think that number and where they've sat offensively, even in the years where they've been exciting and Sam Darnold was this great story.

35:47Robert Mays: I think that stuff starts coming to light in a slightly different way as we get a little bit deeper into his tenure. And I think that puts a decent amount of pressure on him to make sure Kyler Murray becomes the next quarterback success story in a way that JJ McCarthy did not last year.

36:03Derrik Klassen: The other point I wanted to make when we were bringing this up. And it's a theme for the offseason. I think the Vikings might be the most interesting team in the league. But let this season go poorly and have the offense look remotely like it did last year. Let Justin Jefferson turn 28 years old, languishing away in a shitty offense and see how he feels about that and see what his level of buy-in for the future of the Vikings organization is. That's just my own opinion. I'm not that that's reckless speculation, but like Justin Jefferson is like, there's no way he wants to spend his prime hoping that the Vikings figure this out.

36:43Robert Mays: There's just no way. All right, so let's go from somebody in the building where Kyler Murray is now to somebody that was in the building with Kyler Murray previously. I'm going with Monty Ostenfort, the GM of the Cardinals, as one of my guys. We've had this situation a couple different times over the last few years. Reminds me a little bit of what happened in Atlanta, where you have Raheem Morris come in. You have a coaching staff that's now in year one, but the GM's in year four. And that's what's going on with Arizona, where Austin Ford keeps his job, and now the new coaching staff comes in.

37:15Robert Mays: And so there are no expectations for what the Cardinals are going to do this year. I don't know what their over-under is. I'm sure it's shockingly low. They're not favored in any single game they're playing all season. If the coaching staff goes 3-14 this year, it's kind of whatever. If the front office goes 3-14 this year, and now you've got three seasons with four fewer wins, I think that the fire starts to build a little bit. And so I don't think they have to be a good team for some of the pressure to be taken off of Matias and Fort this year. I think there needs to be real results from the draft classes.

37:53Robert Mays: Like, I think we need to be walking out of this season. We need to be looking at a young core of Cardinals players, Paris Johnson, Marvin Harrison Jr., Walter Nolen, Will Johnson, Jeremiah Love. And we need to be saying, man, the Cardinals have a promising collection of young talent. Like that is a group that you can easily get excited about. Even if they're a five win team, I think there needs to be a really proven, exciting nucleus of players. They have drafted early over the last few years for Manny Austin Ford to feel really good about where he stands coming out of this season, even for a team where there aren't a lot of expectations.

38:33Dave Helman: I mean, that's really all of it. It's like all their top 50 picks because it's not like they've spent that much money on like big ticket free agents that they're hoping are like helping them or like made these insane trades where like that's the player acquisition. It's been a lot of draft picks, but like most of them have not been as good as you would want. And some of that is injury, right? Like Walter Nolan just missed a lot of last season. But like Marvin Harrison Jr. has not been what you want. Darius Robinson, again, like that's injury stuff, but has not been exactly what you want. um like jeremiah i think too a lot of it comes down to like if none of those players take a significant step like let's say just walter nolan is a little bit up and down and marvin harrison jr is exactly what he was last year and darius robinson is kind of just ends up being like a fine rotational piece or something and jeremiah love has something closer to like the ashton jenty season then it's like you've made like one awesome first round pick and that was paris johnson and that's kind of it and like at a certain point that just starts to accumulate And it's hard to, even if some of those players are fine and turn out good, like Jeremiah might be great in two years, but it's that you need return on investment, especially for running back, right?

39:35Dave Helman: Like that's one where you pick him. You expect him to be good today. He has to be.

39:40Robert Mays: That's why you picked him is because he should be able to be a good player for you right away, even if it's not optimal in some other ways. I want to be clear about this. I do think there you can make an argument for almost every single one of these guys that they will be the best versions that we've seen of them so far. Like if you want to sit here and say them changing the scheme offensively and even being there yesterday and watching the offense and just some of the structural things, I'm just like, I'm excited to watch this. Like I'm watching Marvin Harrison as the X receiver in a cut split where he's into the core of the formation, snapping off a corner on a dig route.

40:18Robert Mays: And how many times you can count on two hands the amount of times you watched him do that over the last couple of years. And so I do think there's a path for Marvin Harrison to be the best version of himself he's ever been. I think there's a path for Paris Johnson, like Dave picked him in the breakout player draft, to take even a step forward. Walter Nolan, they expect him to be a game-wrecking player when healthy. And I do think that that's possible. Will Johnson in year two, I think there's absolutely an argument to be made that he becomes one of those corners where you're like, holy shit, that guy can play.

40:49Robert Mays: It's not as if you have to tell yourself a story that feels unrealistic about all of these guys in order to feel good about what the Monte Austin Ford draft classes look like in totality. I actually think it's kind of easy to get there. It's just a matter of it actually happening on all of those different fronts.

41:10Derrik Klassen: that is that makes it such an interesting framing for the Cardinals because like we were talking about this too before the show you could talk me into the Cardinals being a better team than I think a lot of people give them credit for and maybe they're feisty I still like I wouldn't pick them to make the playoffs but I could see them being a feisty team but so often we talk about in this instance you're evaluating a coach and whether or not you want him to keep the job like what difference are you making on Sunday? What advantages are you giving your team? Are we seeing tangible results for you to remain as the head coach in the case of a GM?

41:47Derrik Klassen: How good can your roster look heading into a year where you might have a shot to draft a quarterback? Because that's the interesting thing to me. And I know you can get into trouble assuming the quarterback class is going to be good. But let's just assume because it's more interesting that there are three quarterbacks coming out next year worth taking highly. How good does Monty Asenfort's roster have to look this year for you to feel comfortable letting him make that decision? To me, it's beyond

42:14Robert Mays: results. I think it's like, how do we feel about this team? Right? How do we talk about this team? I think that matters. Like, even if they're a five win team, this is in some way is going to be a vibe, a vibes based choice that you have to make, because I don't think there's really a path for them to be much better than that. But there is a path for us to be optimistic about what the future could potentially look like. It's a tough needle to thread, but I do think it exists.

42:40Dave Helman: If they win five games and Marvin Harrison Jr. looks like he's in a better role, Jeremiah Love is like, not Ezekiel Elliott, but like a pretty good rookie running back. And then the defense is, honestly, if the defense is just healthier, I actually think those guys are pretty talented. Like, I think especially in the secondary, a lot of those guys are pretty good. Like, I think Will Johnson is good. I think Garrett Williams has been good. Max Melton, I think, had some moments. It's just that all of them missed like half of last year, if not more. And so I do think that there's a chance that if those guys just coming back, it's like, hey, I don't know if this is a good defense, but maybe they don't have to do as much of the funky shit and they can just be like a normal NFL average defense that would like vibes wise do a million for this team.

43:21Robert Mays: The Darius Robinson part of it does feel like kind of a swing point where we've just forgotten about him. he had an entire offseason healthy I think there is some optimism about him looking like a different version of himself this year compared to the player that we've seen after having a full offseason and I think that it's funny you talk about a team like the Cardinals and it's like well why wouldn't they tank what what else did you want them to do like the Salamalo thing is really the only moment where you're bringing in a veteran player compared to the opportunities that young guys are getting like There's no more Clayus Campbell here.

43:55Robert Mays: Darius Robinson is going to get a chance to play. We are going to get a lot of these young players on display all year. And so these guys are going to have every chance, maybe outside of Besontas, because they're really excited about Isaiah Adams. All the rest of these young players are going to get a chance to prove to you what they are right now. And for a team in the Cardinals position, that's kind of really all you want to be doing. I think they've actually done well in that way.

44:22Derrik Klassen: no and that's I mean and the baseline of talent is there for like they're they're not going to make the playoffs I'm perfectly comfortable saying that but like people talk about them as a team that's tanking and I I understand it and the standoff with Jacoby Bursette was very funny but they they don't they're not guaranteed to pick number one in the draft heading into the season I don't believe that and it is if if four or five of these guys look like players over the course of the season then you could be a lot more excited about the Cardinals in December than you are right now like that's really easy to imagine it's also kind of easy to imagine the status quo maintaining and they hire a new GM to go after Arch Manning like that's pretty easy to imagine as well and then that but that that does make them an interesting team though are we excited

45:14Robert Mays: about imagining who the quarterback for the 2025, 2027 Arizona Cardinals will be. Are we having those conversations near the end of next year? If we are, yes, that to me feels like a very good season for the Arizona Cardinals. That is the perfect,

45:30Derrik Klassen: a we're getting into preview territory here, but like, if we're talking about what would make this season a success, if I'm excited about putting a better quarterback with your weapons on offense and the defense is showing me enough to make me think this could be an exciting team, that's an A+.

45:47Dave Helman: If the conversation is more, which quarterback are we going to have to draft because we're picking fourth and can't necessarily get Arch Manning rather than is Arch Manning doomed in our roster, that is probably like a success for you. Well done.

46:03Robert Mays: All right, let's take one more quick break and then come back and chat about a few more guys that have a lot riding on this season.

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46:41Robert Mays: There's another there's one coach, one guy who's like a prominent name, former head coach that Derek had on his list that neither Dave or I did that. I'm really curious why you wanted to talk about him here. You had Brian Dable, Derek. And I wonder, I guess my only question about that would be how bad does this season have to be for Brian Dable to not be the offensive coordinator for the Titans a year from now? But why did you want to talk about Brian Dable here?

47:06Dave Helman: well first of all looking at that offensive line i still think that there's a chance that a lot of offensive coordinators could have an extremely bad season given the collection of talent there um but i it's a little bit of what we were saying with kevin o 'connell um where it's like the shine is going to come off but i think with dable it's like a different level right where i think dable has now gotten a handful of opportunities obviously coming off of the josh allen thing then he gets the head coaching job with the giants gets like a mini second opportunity there where he gets to draft the quarterback and now is on a completely new opportunity being handed the keys with the first overall pick.

47:39Dave Helman: And I think, first of all, that gives him a different set of expectations. Like this is you are being handed the former first overall draft pick. It's the most talented player that he's had at the position since Josh Allen. And I know that what he did with Daniel Jones was cool. And like Daniel Jones was a top 10 pick, but he at that stage in his career, it was like, we need to fix him. And then Jackson Dart, I think we all understood was like, this was a dice roll it's gonna take time we don't know what we're getting and not that cam ward is perfect but again it's the first overall pick i think that there's just a different layer of expectations there and then the other thing that i would say is like i just feel like if this goes poorly it it feels like this would be the last time where brian dable is like front of mind for people as like we need to go hire that guy to be our offensive coordinator and like you can obviously remake that in three four years or whatever it's going to be but like if this year goes poorly he's not I don't think would immediately get like a hot job next season and to me that does

48:34Robert Mays: mean that there's a lot at stake for him this year I like this because I think yeah again my thought is like guys how bad could it be for him to actually lose that job but I think everything that you just said is right and looking back through it Brian Dable has been an offensive coordinator in the NFL for one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine, ten. Let's play caller. Been a play caller in the NFL for 10 years. How many seasons where his quarterback wasn't Josh Allen were we excited about the job that Brian Dable was doing as a play caller? That first year in New York? Absolutely.

49:11Robert Mays: I was extremely impressed with their ability to build an offense around what they asked of Daniel Jones and the season that Saquon had. He won coach of the year that year. I have no qualms with it. I argued for it at the time. I believed it at the time. I was impressed by what they did. Other than that season, outside of the years he had Josh Allen, how many times were we like, man, that guy is just thriving? Because he bounced around. He was on three different teams in three different years in his first stint from 2009 to 2012 before going back to being a position coach and then having to go to college.

49:45Robert Mays: And so I'm with you. I do think that for everything that you said, this is a big year for like his reputation and what his future opportunities will look like.

49:54Dave Helman: And I also think it's like, it's especially different for him because it's just a different challenge. All of his best offenses, whether it started when his like upturn started at Alabama, it's like, okay, yeah, Jalen Hurts, he can run. Then you get Josh Allen. Obviously he's like one of the best runners we've ever seen in the NFL. Daniel Jones is a pretty good athlete and they used him on boots and designed run game a little bit. And Daniel Jones, I feel like scrambled more that year than he had at like any other point in that kind of Giants era. And then obviously Jackson Dart, a big thing with him is that he can scramble and run.

50:22Dave Helman: Cam Ward can scramble a little bit and he's a decent athlete. That is not a designed running quarterback, like maybe once or twice in the red zone or it's a very particular short yardage situation. But he's not like you don't build quarterback run game into the offense with him. And so I think with all the like expectations thing I said on top of it's a very different challenge. I just think that like this is going to I feel like put a microscope on Brian Dable like pretty heavily.

50:47Derrik Klassen: For a long time, we had the Nick Saban Island of misfit coaches, but obviously he's retired. I'll call my shot now, though. I don't something would have to happen because Arthur Smith is there now. Maybe he'll coach his way back to the NFL. But if it goes poorly for Brian Dable, Ohio State offensive coordinator at some point, because Ryan Day's really leaned into the hiring NFL guys thing, and it's working out for him. That makes too much sense if Brian Dable needs another job outside the NFL.

51:18Robert Mays: Yeah, what are we doing at this time next year? Are we talking about Brian Dable, Ohio State Offensive Coordinator? Are we talking about Brian Dable? Should Brian Dable be a head coach again? What do those jobs look like based on what he did with Cam Ward? The gap between those two things.

51:32Derrik Klassen: It's the joy of this show.

51:33Robert Mays: All right, there's one more guy that was on multiple of our lists, and that is Chris Bauer, the GM of the Indianapolis Colts. He was on your list, Dave. I kind of feel like he has to be. And we could talk about a lot of Colts here. My thought is, and the reason I wouldn't have Shane Steichen on one of these lists, I do think that if Shane Steichen got fired at the end of this year, people would be lining up to hire Shane Steichen, whether it's as a head coach or it's the Mike McDaniel, you have seven offensive coordinator jobs you can choose between as kind of a pit stop to your next head coaching job.

52:08Robert Mays: That to me is going to happen to Shane Steichen no matter what happens this year for the Colts. I think it has to be an absolute dumpster fire for it not to happen. So I think what's at stake for him is more marginal than it is for a guy like Chris Ballard, Dave, who if you get fired as a GM in the NFL, some guys get second opportunities. It's not like being a coach. For the most part, it is one and done. And when you think about the sauce gardener trade, the Daniel Jones doubling down, like this is it. Like they have made the moves they are going to make. It has to happen right now. People were shocked it didn't happen after last season.

52:47Derrik Klassen: Allard reminds me of Zach Taylor a little bit where I'm like, all right, clearly there must be something else at work here that that doesn't give me full confidence that I can say it's all at stake for Chris Ballard. And I can't say for sure that this is going to be the make or break year, but it really feels like it needs to be, man. It's year 10. They haven't made the playoffs since 2021.

53:13Dave Helman: That's the real make or break point. It's year 10. And of that year 10, it's really the first time they're purposefully going into the quarterback with a quarterback they had last season and wanted. That's a big change. Year 10.

53:25Derrik Klassen: No playoffs since 2020. They've biffed it. every way you can imagine biffing it. And so many major GM level decisions are all over this roster from the quarterback to the sauce Gardner trade. I mean, quarterback decisions going back over years. I mean, it's not,

53:45Robert Mays: no one's made more of them over the last 10 years than Chris Bauer. It's been a different one every year. Again, not his own fault every single time, but you think about the amount of sheer quarterback decisions each franchise has made. they got to be at or near the top during his decade long tenure there.

54:04Derrik Klassen: It's, it is remarkable. The different ways that they've tried to, to make this thing work. And I just, I, it's got to pay off in some way, right. Or, or it should. But like I said, I mean, I, I start to feel like I hate Chris Ballard for the record. I've never met the guy. I don't have a negative opinion about him, but this is probably year four where I'm like, man, it really feels like the Colts need to have something go their way or else we might be cleaning house. And it hasn't happened yet. But with the decisions they made last year, with the continuity, I'm very happy to hear that Daniel Jones is cleared to do stuff in training camp.

54:43Derrik Klassen: So not to say that the Achilles injury is completely behind him, but at least you have a chance to maximize his ability coming off of an injury instead of needing to wait four or five weeks into the season before you've got him. So, yeah, man, I just I feel like something needs to happen. I'm not asking for 13 wins, but I don't know. A playoff trip would be nice.

55:07Dave Helman: Playoff trip feels almost like the bare minimum. Mandatory, yeah. It feels like the bare minimum. And I think a lot of it, too, like where I think it swings on, like I think the offense, you know, obviously was pretty good last year. The element of like just not knowing what we're going to get out of Daniel Jones and the injury, I think complicates that a little bit. But the defense, though, is like this is a completely different defensive roster than it was two years ago. Like Cam Bynum is there now. They trade for Sauce Gardner. They've drafted a number of players. They signed Traverius Ward.

55:35Dave Helman: They're going to have two new starting linebackers this year, one of which they drafted in the second round this year. Arden Key is now on the team rushing the passer. Last year's first round they spent on Laetulatu, or two years ago on Laetulatu. He needs to be an ace. Like this defensive core is so much different than it's been the last two or three years. there needs to be proof of concept that all of the moves that he's made here is like for something because last year they were pretty mediocre and they were banged up at certain parts but they just were not a very good or fierce defense this year they need to be like not elite but good enough that they are not necessarily forcing the offense to be like a 35 points a

56:12Robert Mays: game type of team talk about some players we've not talked about a lot of non-quarterbacks here We've got several of them on our list. I think for a lot of the same reasons, Derek, you had a couple that I found interesting. The first player that you mentioned here was Quentin Johnston. Why is Quentin Johnston on this list for you?

56:31Dave Helman: If we're talking about money at stake, man, I feel like he has a pretty good opportunity here to make a lot of money because I think, first of all, he's still wearing the stink of like he's of draft bust and he doesn't have good hands and he can't do all this stuff.

56:45Robert Mays: Unfairly wearing that stink.

56:46Dave Helman: Like he exactly like last year. Again, I don't think he's ever going to be the player that we thought he was going to be when he got drafted in the first round. But he's like a quality starting NFL receiver now. And he has clear rules like he's good on screens. All the crossers that he can run, he's better. And his hands are legitimately better. Not necessarily as like a downfield dunk on guy sort of thing. But like if a stick route is thrown a little bit high and behind, like he can actually go and get that now in a way that like his rookie season, that's a drop like every single time. And so I just think the fact that like the floor of his game has been raised a little bit allows you to access the parts of like, oh, yeah, he's really good at running with the ball in his hands.

57:23Dave Helman: Oh, he's really good at racing across the field. Oh, yeah, he's kind of hard to tackle because he's 200 plus pounds. Like, I think there are parts of his game that are pretty good. And I think we've done a lot of talking with Mike McDaniel going to the Chargers of like, oh, Ladd McConkie is going to be Jalen Waddle. Ladd McConkie is going to be Jalen Waddle. I think there's a good chance that they just feed a lot of really good touches to Quinton Johnson because he's better with the ball in his hand than Ladd McConkie is. And so I just think that there's a chance that if things go right for him, he gets like a thousand yards and some team pays him to be like a decent number too.

57:57Robert Mays: He had 735 yards last year in 14 games. The idea of him being a thousand yard receiver as they're feeding him all of these on the move yak opportunities in an offense that at one point during, it's funny that, The Niners did this too, where the Niners and Mike McDaniel, there were years where they ping pong up and down with Yak. There were years where they had zero and then years where they led the league. But we've seen versions of this offense where the entire point was to create runways for players who could do things with the ball in their hands. And Quentin Johnston, that is the best application of Quentin Johnston.

58:30Robert Mays: And so this is a good one. I do think that there is a chance he has this sort of season where we're like, holy shit, that guy is going to get a lot of money on his second contract. somewhere.

58:41Derrik Klassen: It's funny. I'm glad you brought this up, Derek, because I, I have a, I want to talk about quite a few receivers because there are a lot of guys with big years ahead of them. I was sitting here thinking, well, why, like, why wasn't Quentin Johnston on my radar? The chargers did pick up his option. So he's there through 2027, but that doesn't lessen the significance of this season though. Cause if he whips ass in this offense, the chargers could lock him in ahead of time and not i mean we know teams love to keep these guys from hitting free agency so if this year goes well for him he might not ever have to worry about the market that's a

59:20Dave Helman: good catch because i think i just assumed they wouldn't have picked up his option because again i think we all kind of think of him as like yeah i think people just think that he's not that good of a player and that's just kind of the way that we've thought about him so that's a good catch but yeah again if the chargers want to extend him to actually be their wide receiver too there's a chance that they could do that if he if he turns out pretty good I think it speaks to the fact that

59:41Derrik Klassen: he has become a pretty good player that the Chargers were willing to commit that price tag to him like he's he's not a perfect player but yeah the the early year snapshot that most people

59:52Robert Mays: have of him is not fair I think the Chargers like him I think I think in the building the Chargers do value him and think that he's a good player the Chargers are a perfect example of this Josh Palmer got 10 million dollars a year after the season that he had with the Chargers like in a world where Josh Palmer is getting$10 million a year, Quentin Johnson on a rookie contract is an extremely valuable piece. And I think that's how they were viewing him even coming into last year before he played as well as he did last year and kind of showed the growth that he did. And so I think that he's going to be a big part of what they're doing down there.

1:00:24Robert Mays: It's so easy to imagine a world because of the way the Dolphins offense was constructed, where Ladd McConkie is getting 35 % of the targets. I think that world is probably harder. It's harder for that world to actually come into focus because Quinn Johnson is a player that's worth getting involved in the office. Dear Dave, you also had a veteran receiver. This one I think is very true to the exercise here because of the money that is going to be at stake. George Pickens was the first receiver on your list. Just carry him over from last year's show.

1:00:57Derrik Klassen: Did it last year. Still applies. he's got, he's got more money in the bank. Like last year he was playing for money period. And he made himself$27 million. So that's really nice to fall back on. But now we're talking about, okay, all of the top 10 receivers on the market right now got 40 million guaranteed at signing, let alone everything else. So now George Pickens, I mean, George Pickens is trying to put a four in front of his salary. I don't know if he can get there, but that's, that's gotta be the goal. and it certainly looks like the Cowboys are not really interested in doing an extension heading into the season and it shockingly doesn't look like we're going to have a lot of drama about that pick and sign the tag and I don't know I guess never speak too soon with the Cowboys but it sounds like there's not going to be a lot of contract drama here and just go do it again man go do it again and either the Cowboys will pay you or somebody will want to make you a very very wealthy man if you can play remotely like you did last year and that's that's even with the warts like i know george pickens had two or three head scratching games last year the lions game comes to my mind where you're just like man that's really not what we were hoping for in a situation where we need you to step up but i mean the he's 26 years old the talent's undeniable if he if he plays remotely like he did last year somebody's gonna sign him to a hefty hefty contract you can

1:02:23Robert Mays: make a real argument that he was one of the best players in the NFL last year. Players, not just receivers, players. And so if that happens again, yes,$40 million, I think somebody would be willing to do that.

1:02:38Derrik Klassen: I whiffed badly on Zach Taylor, but George Pickens, all pro caliber player, was one of my best predictions of the 2025 season. And I hope it, I mean, I hope he can do it again just because he's one of the most fun players to watch, in my opinion. Not even not saying best. I'm not interested in ranking him in the hierarchy of receivers, but I just love his game. I love go-go gadget receivers, and he's like the best one working right now.

1:03:04Robert Mays: A few other players worth mentioning. I had Jermaine Johnson on my list. Is there a chance that Jermaine Johnson has some version of the Jalen Phillips arc where he stays healthy? Edges very rarely hit the market, like quality pedigreed edges, and he is one of those guys. If he can be healthy this year for the Titans, is he somebody that, Odafi Olwe, you know, guys like that where they somehow do end up hitting the market because they've kind of had a strange career. They weren't necessarily valued by the first team. They break out a little bit later. And those are$25,$30 million players if they hit free agency.

1:03:38Robert Mays: I think Jermaine Johnson has an argument for that. Derek, you had a couple guys. Tariq Wallen is somebody that you mentioned. I think it's kind of a similar discussion where it's like, you know, he signs a one-year deal because maybe there are some reservations about giving him a long-term contract. But if Tariq Wollin has a massive year for the Eagles this year, what could he get paid in free agency next season?

1:03:59Dave Helman: And I picked him because he opted into having something at stake. He could have signed a long-term deal somewhere, I'm sure. It would have been for less money than he wanted. But he was like, no, I'm going to prove that I'm really, really good at this. I'm going to go to a team that is going to allow me to be really, really good at this. And then he'll be 28 next offseason, which corners don't get paid big long-term deals like after 28, 29. And so I think he probably knows that like, this is the time to turn it up and do it. And so he's got tens of millions of dollars on the line, depending on how this goes in Philly next year.

1:04:32Derrik Klassen: Tariq Willen is defensive George Pickens. I wrote that in my notes where I was just like super tall, rangy, athletic, freaky guy. You hear vague platitudes about worried about him off the field without a whole lot to go along with it, but he's a hell of a player on the field. But yeah, hopefully, I mean, he's in a similar situation to where Pickens was last year and where, I mean,$12 million is a lot of money, but there's a lot more to be gained if he plays up to what we think he can.

1:05:02Dave Helman: Even their on field is extremely similar. We're like Tariq Wollin, by any metric, is an extremely efficient corner. But like once every two games just makes a completely insane, like boneheaded play that you're like, what? How did that happen? We're like, exactly. George Pickens is the same way on offense.

1:05:18Derrik Klassen: It's like, how long can you employ him before he exasperates you? And how high are the highs in the meantime?

1:05:26Robert Mays: I have several Rams. Pick your Ram. Byron Young, Kobe Turner, Steve Avila, Puka Nakua. All of those guys are free agents. And so I think all of those players have a decent amount at stake this year. And then, Dave, you also had a bucket of guys that you wanted to talk about.

1:05:43Derrik Klassen: Pick your 2024 wide receiver. the first like 10 guys off the board in 2024, several of them have shown that they can be very good players, but I think all of them would stand to benefit from a huge third season. I mean, Jason was, we knew he was a good player going into last year, but I don't know how many people thought he was going to get a$40 million salary coming out of the 2025 season. It wasn't on my bingo card at the very least. And so pick your guy, Marv jr. Malik neighbors, Roma Dunze, Brian Thomas, Jr., Xavier Worthy, Ricky Pearsall. I'll throw in Xavier Lee get in key on Coleman. I think they have a little more work to do than the other guys, but like pretty much everybody I've named, especially the first eight or so names has shown some real, real enticing talent and has shown you that maybe they could be a wide receiver one playing on that sort of contract, but a big year three could go a long way to solidify that for, it's kind of crazy.

1:06:47Derrik Klassen: Like all the first like nine or 10 receivers off the board, all of them, it's like, yeah, there's a lot to like, but I would just love, just show me one more good season in year three to get me to really believe.

1:06:58Robert Mays: Yeah. I, every single one of them, it's, it's different degrees. You know, some of them, it's like, are they going to be even pieces of the plan next year? Xavier will get in key on Coleman or those guys, how prevalent a piece of the plan are they going to be? That's a Xavier worthy kind of Ricky Pierce all question. And even Brian Thomas Jr. To an extent. And the other guys, it's like, can they take that step neighbors? Like being healthy, being like truly one of the game changing players at the position. A dunze. It's like, can you be the most important receiver on your own team? Considering some of the other past catchers there.

1:07:29Robert Mays: So I think it's, it's different for all of them, but there's something at stake for pretty much every single one of those guys.

1:07:35Derrik Klassen: You're right. Some of those, some of those guys are playing for major extensions and some of them are playing for job security beyond the first two or three years of their rookie deal the last thing

1:07:46Dave Helman: i would say about that how rarely do we get like what feels like an insane wide receiver class and it doesn't actually it's it's been a much more frustrating receiver class than we think because i feel like for the past like decade before that it was like every time we thought it was great it was exactly what we paid for it to be and then 2024 was like maybe it'll still be good but it's

1:08:05Derrik Klassen: been a lot of up and down and a lot of I don't know you know what's funny about that you're right and maybe it's like it's the time of year where you have your optimism glasses on but running through that entire list at least up until like we get and key on like the first up till Xavier worthy I'm like I like this guy he's a good player like he's shown me some stuff but by December of this year I could have a really really different opinion depending on how it goes all right a lot

1:08:34Robert Mays: A lot of guys with a lot riding on this season. Excited to see how a lot of this stuff unfolds as we get a little bit closer to the year. We are going to be back four shows this week, plus our first collective training camp mailbag show with a lot of the beat writers, which obviously I'm on the road, and so we'll be picking those up. So we'll have five shows a week for you guys, one on Saturday each week throughout training camp, but a jam-packed schedule now that we are back to it. Very excited about that. We'll be back tomorrow for now. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.

1:09:05Robert Mays: Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

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