Who has the most at stake in the 2026 NFL Draft?

0:00Chicago, 2011. A cop is murdered. Police and prosecutors swear they have the trigger man. He swears he didn't do it. How far will each side go to prove their right? Like it's just one bombshell after another, you know, where you're like, what? The story of a PlayStation, a brain-eating amoeba, and the relentless pursuit of justice. Off-duty, out now. Listen wherever you get your podcasts. Reddit is where people go for real human advice. When you advertise on Reddit, your brand shows up alongside the most trusted recommendations on the Internet. It's authentic, brand safe and highly effective across your entire funnel.

0:46Ready to show up where people trust what they read? New advertisers spend$500 and get$500 in ad credit. Terms apply. Start your test today at business.reddit.com slash podcasts. Valid for new Reddit ad accounts only. Only valid once per business. Additional terms apply.

1:04Robert Mays: See business.reddit.com for more information. The hustle doesn't have to hurt. If performance pressure is making it hard to breathe, Grow Therapy helps you navigate stress, set boundaries, and actually feel like yourself again. Whether it's your first time in therapy or your 50th, Grow makes it easier to find a therapist who fits you, not the other way around. You can search by what matters, like insurance, specialty, identity, or availability, and get started in as little as two days. There are no subscriptions, no long-term commitments. You just pay per session. Grow helps you find therapy on your time.

1:39Whatever challenges you're facing, Grow Therapy is here to help. Grow accepts over 100 insurance plans, including Medicaid in some states. Sessions average about$21 with insurance, and some pay as little as$0, depending on their plan. Visit growtherapy.com slash start now to get started. That's growtherapy.com slash start now. Growtherapy.com slash start now. Availability and coverage vary by state and insurance plan.

2:09Robert Mays: Welcome to The Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Fun show on tap for you guys today. Each year we like to talk about the teams that have the most at stake in an upcoming NFL draft. Which teams have a ton riding on how this thing is going to go? That could mean because they have a lot of picks. That could mean because the general manager's on the hot seat. There's so many different considerations that drive the stakes in a given draft in a given year. And so Derek and I wanted to spend a little bit of time today digging into about 10 or so teams that fit the bill. Those are the teams that, because they have a ton of top 100 picks like the Dolphins, or because it seems like their GM is in an inflection point like the Ravens, have a ton riding on this draft specifically.

2:50Robert Mays: So that's what we dug into today. the teams that have the most at stake in the 2026 NFL draft. If you're listening on Apple Podcasts, you can now watch video there too. Just update to the latest iOS and head to our show page to start watching.

3:14Robert Mays: I've done this show over the last few years, and I think it's just a good table-setting exercise as we really dig into draft season here. And just think about who really has the most riding on this draft. And we've typically focused on teams, Derek. But I think we'll be able to dig into why these teams are in this conversation. And who associated with these teams really does have a lot at play when it comes to the 2026 draft class. Yeah, I'm excited for this one because I think we have, I don't know, a dozen or so maybe just shy of that teams. And I think there are probably like very different reasons for half of them to be on there.

3:50Like half of these teams are good teams. but half of them are very, very bad. And so it's just a very, it's a wide array of teams that we're going to hit here.

3:56Robert Mays: Well, I mean, this is, here's an example I'll throw out, right? The saints, right? Like the saints have a top 10 pick in this year's draft. The saints don't have like a ton riding on this draft. They're in the middle of like a, in my opinion, kind of well orchestrated reset. Like it would be great if they found a really nice player with the seventh overall pick, obviously as you're trying to accumulate young pieces, as you're starting a new era, it's really important to hit on some of these drafts but if the seventh overall pick in this draft isn't a star for the saints and they come out of this draft with like one starter it's not necessarily going to derail who the new orleans saints want to be over the next five years yeah if that guy's not a star and they still go like eight and nine and shuck looks fine again it's like they'll probably be okay it's not really a make or break season like nobody's going to lose their job over a draft like that and you find this you find a starter in the second round your third round pick is like a rotational piece on your defensive line like that's acceptable for other teams there is a lot more riding on this for a whole variety of reasons and so let's start with the first team that was on my list and it was funny when you and I were going back and forth you were like I forget to mention this team but in reality they have a ton riding on this draft how about the Las Vegas Raiders how about we start there we should probably start with the team that has the first overall pick yes and we were going back and forth I was like I kind of just forget to talk about them because the first pick is pre-spent, but that doesn't mean that the first pick is going to be good.

5:22Like, I think I really like Fernando Mendoza. I think a lot of people like Fernando Mendoza, but there's no guarantee that he's going to be good. It's not like this is like a Drake May caliber prospect or like Caleb Williams or Andrew Luck or anything like that. Like he's good enough to go first overall, but this is no like guarantee like we get with some other guys at this position.

5:40Robert Mays: Yeah, when you're taking a quarterback with your first round pick, period, But if you're taking a quarterback with a top five picker for the first overall pick, you obviously have an unbelievable amount riding on the draft, even if there is some certainty in what your pick is going to look like. Because I was trying to figure out the right number of years to attach to the sentence. And I'm curious where you would land with this. How many years of your franchise, if you had to guess, just throw out like an estimate, are tied to this quarterback that you were taking with the number one overall pick?

6:09Robert Mays: How many of the next years of your team will this dictate in a good or bad way? I mean, at least a half a decade, because let's say he's not great and you spend two or three years trying to figure out how good he is. And then you get to the end of that road when it's time to like pay him and you're not sure you want to do that. And then you've got to restart a quarterback. Well, even if the next quarterback is good, the first year or two of that, there's going to be residual effects of like maybe our team never accomplished enough. They're still not good enough. Now you're trying to reinsert a new 21 year old rookie into this.

6:36like there is at least a half decade's worth of stuff going into this and that's not always quite

6:41Robert Mays: true right like the cardinals i think it's usually worse i think that's the best case scenario it probably is like there are some very small there are some very rare outlier circumstances like the cardinals for example they draft josh rosen they're immediately like that sucks we're gonna draft kyla murray and they ended up pretty good like pretty quickly so sometimes you can get that more often than not you end up like kind of running the mill again where you kind of end up on this the quarterback treadmill pretty consistently. So if you look at the last like five to 10 years of quarterback picks and how long it took these teams to rebound, I think the most realistic answer here is seven years.

7:18Robert Mays: And here's why I landed on seven years. You're gonna spend the first three years tinkering with that guy. It doesn't really matter how bad year one is. In year two, you're gonna talk yourself into a little bit of an improvement. And then after year three goes bad, that's when you know that this thing is probably over. That's how it typically goes outside of outlier cases like the Cardinals that you mentioned. Then it depends on how the rest of your team goes. For the most part, even teams that miss on a quarterback in the top five, they're allowed to spend other resources in such a way that the rest of the roster gets good enough where even if the quarterback is bad, you're not necessarily utter dog shit everywhere else.

7:57Robert Mays: So if you're somewhere like a middle-of-the-road team, then the next two years, because you don't have a pathway to picking another quarterback, you spend the next two years tinkering with veteran options that are kind of like off-ramp quarterbacks. This is where, I mean, they didn't take three years, but this is exactly where the Vikings are right now with Kyler Murray. This is where the Jets were with Aaron Rodgers. Like, this is what happens if you miss out on the first round, guys. Like, all right, well, now. The Steelers did this. The Steelers are exactly in this boat with Kenny Pickett. They're still moving through this.

8:27Robert Mays: And so now it's like, all right, this guy didn't work out, but we have the 14th pick in the draft because our defense was good. We don't really have an avenue to find another guy. So who's available at quarterback? You spend at least a couple of years figuring out that version of it. Then that doesn't work out. And usually you've done enough borrowing and compromising and trying to get the most out of that version of the roster, or then you spend another two years having to dig out of that hole. So if you look back on it, seven is what I landed on. I think there are two teams that jump out to me.

8:59Robert Mays: could Kyler and two are very interesting cases, right? Because Kyler wasn't necessarily a huge swing and miss, but you're almost better off just completely swinging and missing than having to like go ride through the middle for two additional years. Like we're seven years removed from Kyler getting drafted by the Cardinals. We're six years removed from Tua getting drafted by the Dolphins. And those are the two teams that I think if you look at the entire NFL are the most tearing it down and starting over franchises in the league. So it really is like at least five and often seven years that are attached to this sort of pick if you're drafting a quarterback this high.

9:36And I think those two cases in particular, I would say especially the Cardinals are really important cases for what you were talking about, where it's like if the quarterback is not definitively like a top eight guy where he can kind of survive almost any roster build, you do have to be pretty good at building the rest of the roster around him. And like the Cardinals in particular just did not do that. The Dolphins are a different consideration where it's like they kind of speed ran like just like pumped up the credit card for a couple years and they didn't quite win what they wanted to and then it blew up and they were like we're gonna move on but the Cardinals were like they kind of just didn't build a very good roster for two or three years there and things started to fall apart around Kyler Murray you change head coaches after a guy you know away from a guy who in theory his offense fit him better and then now you've got to do all this recycling and so the Cardinals really probably are like the best example of kind of what

10:22Robert Mays: you're talking about here yeah so seven years since Kyler was drafted Zach Wilson was 2021 it's going to be at least 2028 before the jets are competitive again the best example to me again you said the steelers that was one where i had down it's been four years since they missed on kenny pickett they're still working through it the best case scenario here like the off-ramp kind of presentation that i had where you're going to a veteran guy who's available you're trying to make the most out of that version of it even if the guy you drafted in the first round wasn't your long-term starter the best possible version of this is tom brady with the bucks like that is the case where it actually worked out.

10:55Robert Mays: But that is such a unicorn, like once in a lifetime set of circumstances that had to fall into place. For the most part, that's not happening. And the fun part about that is who is the guy now drafting Fernando Mendoza and having to make sure that he's avoiding that scenario? It's Tom Brady. It's Tom Brady. That is a really funny way to circle it around. Yeah. Like if the only way to get out of this hole is to just sign the 40 year old Hall of Fame quarterback who still has plenty of juice. I mean, a team should just do that every year. All right. So that's the team at the top. Obviously, you have a ton riding on a draft when you're picking guy number one overall, no matter how much we like or don't like Fernando Mendoza.

11:30Robert Mays: Who is the next team that you wanted to mention? I mean, I think the easiest one to go to is just the team that has a million picks, which we've already talked about a little bit is the Miami Dolphins. Like I in the sense of like, are people going to get fired over this draft immediately? I don't think so. Like this, this regime is probably going to get more than one year almost no matter what. But when you have this many top 100 picks, like we almost never see a team have this many top 100 picks. So they have two first round picks. They have pick 43, pick 75, pick 87, pick 90 and pick 94. Like it's an unbelievable amount of draft picks.

12:04And so we talked about it before when you give up who was. I mean, would you say Jalen Waddle was the best player on the roster when they traded him away? Probably. Yeah.

12:13Robert Mays: In terms of what you could get the most for. I think it's undeniably Jalen Waddle. A hundred percent. And so to trade away your best player, you really only have like one or two, maybe three other guys who could even in great circumstances get to a Pro Bowl like a Devon HN, maybe like a Jordan Brooks. Other than that, this is a roster that is entirely stripped down. And you really need to go into this like it's I think this is also a really good, interesting thing with the Dolphins, too, in that they're bringing over so many Packers guys. And the Packers guys for the longest time have been like draft and develop, draft and develop, draft and develop.

12:44And so to immediately go into their first draft class with a million draft picks, I do think is really interesting.

12:50Robert Mays: So they have seven top 100 picks and my brain went to the same place. How often does that happen? And so there was there's no clean way to do this. Like if you go use like pro football reference or stat head, maybe there is one and somebody should let me know if there is. But I was trying to figure out who's had the most top 100 picks in a single draft over the last like 10 to 15 years. And so I literally combed through every draft over the last 15 years to look. There has been one other team that from, again, maybe I missed one. This was a very analog way of doing this. But I found one other team since 2010 that had seven top 100 picks.

13:25Robert Mays: It was actually very recent. Can you guess who that team was?

13:32Wait, I feel like I was just doing this. And was it, did the Cardinals in like two or three years ago, was it them? Yes. Okay, because I was just, we're going to talk about them as well. And so I was coming through some of their draft classes and they drafted a dozen players. And what was it? 23, 24, 24. That's right.

13:47Robert Mays: They had seven top 100 picks. And so I want to talk about the directions this sort of draft can go because it's not a guarantee, even if you have seven top 100 picks, that this is going to be kind of the arsenal of guys that restocks your roster. So the Cardinals top seven top 100 picks in 2024, Marvin Harrison, Jr., Darius Robinson, Max Melton, Trey Benson, Isaiah Adams, Tip Ryman, cornerback Elijah Jones. Those are the seven top 100 picks for the Cardinals in 2024. I would say at best, the results have been mixed with those seven top 100 picks. That's not great. I would say Melton is a pretty good player.

14:25Marvin Harrison Jr. is such a mystery box. I think in theory, he's a good player. He's had some moments, but that's just like, I don't even know what to do with that. Which given you spent a top five pick on him, that is pretty concerning. and then like the next best win there is what like tip Ryman is a really good tight end two for you and you spent a third round pick on that like maybe tight end two I mean essentially tight on

14:45Robert Mays: three he's very much a role player which is fine he's also been hurt a lot right you know Trey Benson's been banged up they literally just signed Tyler Algier so that room wasn't solid enough with just Trey Benson and James Connor so they're not a great result for the team that had the most top 100 picks in the last 15 years. There were four other teams, if the Cardinals had seven that year, that had six. To me, the best case scenario here, the draft you are hoping for, if you are the Miami Dolphins, is similar to the draft that the Lions had in 2023. That's when they got Jameer Gibbs, Jack Campbell, Sam Laporta, Brian Branch, their other two top 100 picks that year, Hendon Hooker and Broderick Martin.

15:25Okay, that is those first four is like, that's about as good as it

15:29Robert Mays: gets that and gets and the other one you need to be hoping for if you're the dolphins we did it on a mailbag like two weeks ago what is a good draft for the dolphins and i think we said four to five players of those seven top 100 picks and that's what the lions got yeah you want that or again like we talked about on the mailbag what the browns did last year where you get a couple of guys that are like very obvious uh going to be like playmaking players for you pro bowl type of players for you and so yeah if they could have that lions draft or i mean those are obviously pie in the sky right and so maybe if you get only three great players instead of that that's still probably a good hit but those two are like that that is about as good as it gets so the other one the other draft the other three that there were six top 100 picks in the same draft 2020 dolphins with those two additional first round picks that was the tua austin jackson noeg binogamy draft they also drafted robert hunt raekwon davis and brandon jones the 2016 browns cory coleman emmanuel Agba, Carl Massib, Sean Coleman, Cody Kessler, Joe Showbert.

16:29Robert Mays: Awful. And then the 2012 Rams, which this is one where these are some names, boy. Michael Brockers, Brian Quick, Isaiah Peed, Janoris Jenkins, Tremaine Johnson, Chris Givens were the Rams' sixth one top 100 picks that year. Jenkins and Tremaine Johnson were a pretty good cornerback duo there for a minute. They were good. They were good. Just think about what we wanted. We wanted Brian Quick to be something so badly. I know. wanted Brian quick to be just something he never was but that's it like so those are these six times or the five times that it has happened with six top 100 picks or more since 2010 that I found and there was only one with seven and that's where the dolphins are right now and you know what if we're being realistic that Rams draft is like probably like the median ish outcome right where it's like Brockers is a pretty good yes like you take Brockers high in the draft ends up being a pretty good player for you and then through those other mid mid-round picks you get like a mix of like fine-ish role players and then like two good starters in Jermaine Johnson and Jenkins, obviously.

17:29Robert Mays: But how scary is it that we have five examples of this with at least six guys and there are two of them where you're like, I could live with that. That's it. 40%. This is the thing. I think we all love draft picks as dart throws. Dart throws can be anything. That's the problem. And you're going to get these draft picks where are these draft classes where 15 % of your guys are good. And that's just obviously that's not what the Dolphins want, but that's where you can end up. There are a lot of teams with five, there are probably a dozen examples of five, but six and seven, those are the outliers.

18:02Robert Mays: The one of the other ones that you wanted to mention that I get why you have this team on your list, but it was at least a little bit surprising when you sent this over. You think the Los Angeles Rams are one of the teams that has the most at stake in this draft. State your case. They're trying to win a Superbowl this year. Like this is it. I know we've done the thing with Stafford for a couple of years now, but like this has to be the one. I can't wait for the 2027 offseason to be like, this is it. He's 41. This is it. This is the last ride for Stafford. After he wins the MVP again. They have some new other medical contraption to put him in for the offseason, and we don't see him until.

18:35He's like half bionic, man. Exactly. Like, yeah, neither of his arms are real at that point.

18:39Robert Mays: He's actually only 38 right now, so he'll be 39 next year when we have this conversation again. With all the back stuff, it's like you got to tack on a couple of years. You know, he's functionally like 42 43 there is no better example in the nfl right now or probably in professional sports right now than the look at him he's a miracle the i can't believe he's still alive and he's 38 matthew stafford is six months younger than me i'm talking about him like he's dragging his limbs around just getting banged up everywhere man he's he's a true iron man one way or another but my my case is like so obviously they they had multiple first round picks they trade one of them away to go get Trent McDuffie, which they should.

19:16Their other first round pick, though, is higher than they typically pick at 13. They don't always get picks that high. And this is going to be a range where in this class, if they really want to load up on offensive line again, and I know McClendon has been fine and Jackson has been fine, but if they want to upgrade at tackle, they could do that. If they really want to upgrade at linebacker, there might be a guy that they like there if one of those guys falls or if they really love Anthony Hill or whatever it is. Or maybe you trade back and get a CJ Allen. Like they have a chance to get a serious playmaker at 13 in a way that they always don't.

19:47And that when you are trying to fight for a Superbowl and you are, I would guess right now that they have like the third best Superbowl odds or something like that.

19:54Robert Mays: It's number one, they're first. That's totally makes sense. And to hold that crown, getting a guy at like at 13, who could be like a true, true star for you. I really do think that that's the thing that could kind of kick them into overdriving and actually give them a shot again. they're one of the more fun teams and i'm sure we'll do this exercise a million times we'll do it on on the clock maybe next week katie i can't count so they might be one of the six teams we're doing next week at 13 we'll do this very soon when we talk about the different options they have they're one of those teams i think is really fun just because you could justify anything like if you wanted to leave the top 13 and say now we can live with warren mcclendon at right tackle like he was fine when havenstein got hurt last year we could do that for one more year even though he's in the final year of his deal.

20:37Robert Mays: That's a rationalization that you wouldn't even have to like talk yourself into that. You'd be like, oh, we can do that. Devontae, his contract is up after this year. This team is still in 11 personnel 60 % of the time. And I mean, this is there and them specifically is so funny because every year it seems like they want the shiniest object possible and just ignoring whatever the practical move happens to be. They tried to trade up for Ted Rowe and McMillan. They tried to trade up for Brock Bowers. So if like Makai Lemon is sitting there for them at 13, even if they know the more prudent thing might be taking the tackle that is going to be an upgrade is going to be a foundational piece for you for the next five years.

21:16Robert Mays: I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they were just like, we're taking the playmaker. We don't really care. Or Kenyon Sadiq, where it's like, yeah, he really wanted Bauer so bad. You think they can justify that after after drafting Ferguson in the second round last year? Listen, I like Terrence Ferguson. He's a nice player. Kenyon Sadiq might feel like they don't make many dudes who are like that type of player. Yeah, I'm with you, though. I mean, I just think that because the timeline is so truncated, because they're pushing all their chips in, if this can be a guy that helps take them over the top, they do have a lot more riding on this draft than a team with their level of success and with how complete of a roster they have, you might think at first glance.

21:55Robert Mays: All right, we're going to take our first quick break here and then come back and talk a little New York Jets. A thoughtfully built wardrobe comes down to pieces that mix well and last. That's where Quince shines. Premium fabrics consider design and everyday essentials that feel effortless to wear and dependable, even as the seasons change. Quince has the everyday essentials I love with quality that lasts. Lightweight cashmere sweaters, short-sleeved Mongolian cashmere polos, linen bottoms and shorts, tees in 100 % Pima cotton, and European jersey linen. These are the versatile pieces that make a wardrobe actually work season to season.

22:26You guys have been listening to us all season and into the off-season, speaking of season to season. so you know where I'm going with this. I love Quince. I've been doing these reads. I mean it when I say it. This is high quality clothing that just works regardless of what it might be like outside or inside. It was just my wife's birthday in February. I wore my Quince jacket for the first part of the day. That included us going to a play, having some people over at our house, and it just felt so great. I felt like I looked good. I was confident. It was a really wonderful piece to be wearing on that special day.

22:58Quince works directly with top factories and cuts out the middleman. You're not paying for brand markup or fancy retail stores, just quality clothing. Their clothing is rated between four and a half and five stars by thousands of people wearing it every day. And they only partner with factories that meet rigorous standards for craftsmanship and ethical production. Right now, go to quince.com slash athletic football for free shipping and 365 day returns. That's a full year to build your wardrobe and love it. And you will. Now available in Canada, too. Don't keep settling for clothes that don't last.

23:26Go to quince.com slash athletic football for free shipping and 365 day returns. Quince.com slash athletic football.

23:40Chicago, 2011. A cop is murdered. Police and prosecutors swear they have the trigger man. He swears he didn't do it. How far will each side go to prove they're right? Like it's just one bombshell after another, you know, where you're like, what? The story of a PlayStation, a brain-eating amoeba, and the relentless pursuit of justice. Off-Duty, out now. Listen wherever you get your podcasts. Hey y 'all, it's Kelly Clarkson with Wayfair, where delivery and setup are as easy as a few taps on your phone. Picture this. You're relaxing in an old hammock, scrolling Wayfair's app when you spot it. A brand new patio set.

24:23Next thing you know, Wayfair delivers it right to your patio and sets it up. Oh, you need a new grill too? All right, Wayfair's got you covered. With Wayfair's room of choice delivery and fast experts set up on qualifying orders, life gets a little easier. Visit Wayfair.com or the Wayfair app.

24:38Robert Mays: Wayfair, every style, every home.

24:43Robert Mays: All right, let's go from the teams that are trying to win Super Bowls to one of the other teams that has all the picks in this draft. Both of us on our initial list had the New York Jets, who have four picks in the top 44 of this draft. Why, other than that, anything specific other than the volume of picks that pushed you to include the Jets here? Right. It's a lot of the same conversation we just had about the Dolphins. The volume of picks is important. But with the Jets specifically, they're different than the Dolphins because the Dolphins, it's a clean slate for everybody. New head coach, new quarterback, new GM, all that stuff.

25:14that's not the case with the Jets like Darren Moogie uh is obviously new there and I think when we look at this roster and we look at the coaching regime and stuff and if we're being realistic it's more likely than not that this Jets team is kind of just mediocre again at best and potentially Aaron Glenn gets fired obviously they had a ton of uh overturning of their coaching staff this year and so I think with that in mind there's a chance that the GM stays because GMs in a lot of cases can outlive the coaches even if they're the ones who hired them and so I think for him with the roster being clearly in reset mode, you shipped away some of your best young players.

25:49You have four top 50 picks. Like we're talking about top 100 picks for some of these teams. They have four top 50 picks. This is a spot where he clearly needs to make sure the roster is set up for potentially the next head coach he hires. And obviously there's a really nice scenario where maybe all these draft picks hit. Geno Smith is an upgraded quarterback and Aaron Glenn can get this team above 500 and maybe they keep everyone and that's great. But in not that scenario, he needs to make sure that the roster is set up for success so that he can sell it, keep his job and then hire the next head coach.

26:21Robert Mays: This is an interesting one because I don't disagree that they have a ton riding on this draft, but they have more picks in next year's draft. Like they have three first round picks in the 27 draft. And so this is a multi-year consideration for the Jets, but I'm with you for the exact same reason where the dynamics of this on Mookie's end of it to me are what caused a lot to be riding on this draft for both him and the Jets. How many times are we in this situation where if you're a Jets fan, the future of the organization, who you're going to be, everything about where you're putting your hopes and dreams right now, the head coaches, it's over.

26:59Robert Mays: like I don't think any single Jets fan is looking at Aaron Glenn and saying like this is the guy who's going to dig us out of this I think what they're looking at is what Mugi has done over the last two years or the last year or so to kind of assemble this arsenal of picks and be like all right this is the plan moving forward like he is clearly right now the most important figure associated with the organization and how often does that happen with a GM and especially a GM who's never won anything with a GM who's never won anything not of not very often like the fact that he's being able to wield all of these picks this way and I do think and it's important I know they have a bunch of picks in next year's draft they have all the first round picks and stuff I think there is a chance though like if this draft class is bad from the jump like three of these top 50 picks like cannot play he might not be the one making those three draft picks next year And so for that reason, I think it's like super important for him.

27:57Robert Mays: I think that it's probably reasonable to assume he's got a decent amount of runway here because of the way that they've done this. Like outside of something catastrophic, he's probably going to be able to see this through over the next couple of years. But you really have put a spotlight on you and what your draft record looks like when the most important, meaningful things that you've done over your entire tenure is trade away real players and just get draft picks. like that makes the draft picks so so important and even if there are more of them next year at a certain point along the way the draft picks are going to have to start to hit and that includes the top the four top 44 picks that you were talking about right now if the jets go five and 12 this year i think it's more likely that he keeps his job and aaron glenn loses his job and so i think he has insulated himself in that way because of the way that they've done this if you were Woody Johnson and the team was bad other than like you just said something catastrophic with this year's picks it would be so silly to fire a guy for having a bad season after this but it's just I can't remember a situation like this where the the head coach was such a secondary figure in like the narrative around why the team might dig themselves out of this and by making yourself the central figure you inherently put pressure on yourself as part of that process totally because i i feel like i guess the closest you can get is like some of those browns runs where they had a boatload of picks over those very good example like that then that's probably as close as i can get for sashi brown exactly exactly like this it's not a guarantee that this thing's worse out for you because it's not even like i think getting median outcomes of draft classes and draft picks when you leverage yourself so far this way and have this many picks, it almost feels like that's not good enough, right?

29:48Like when you are so clearly like pushing everything into like, we are going to like supercharge this roster with the draft. If you just get like middle of the road draft classes with those two, even though by volume, that would be a good number of players. When you are selling the idea that like, yeah, we're going to kick ass in the draft and then it kind of falls flat a little bit. That just does not put you in a very good position. Like you kind of have to knock both of those classes out of the park.

30:13Robert Mays: yeah that's the best recent example is i think the browns and then the other one that i would say where it was kind of like this uh the texans felt like this in casario's early years where they were kind of like there are all these machinations going on and they're trying to like figure it out and they were cycling between these head coaches and like the front office moves are almost completely divorced from the results because i think we all kind of understood what was going on there. So those to me are the two most analogous situations, but it just doesn't happen very often. Let's get to the next one here.

30:45Robert Mays: This team is again, a very, in a very different circumstance than the jets are, but I still think has a ton riding on this draft and their general manager specifically. We both said the Baltimore Ravens, why the Baltimore Ravens for you as you're going through the teams that have the most at stake in this draft. Yeah. Like, I mean, in similar, not really it I guess because they're both GMs I'm saying it's similar but like obviously Eric DaCosta and the Ravens with when John Harbaugh was there that was a very long running thing I mean Harbaugh was one of the most tenured head coaches uh in the league for a while and Eric DaCosta has not been the GM for the entirety of his run but for a lot of it and especially like the more recent what we know as like the Lamar Jackson era and stuff like that and I think after the week the way that last year had gone and after some of the frustrations one of those two guys was clearly going to go.

31:33It obviously ended up being John Harbaugh. And so now there's a lot of pressure on Eric DaCosta to kind of reinvigorate this roster in a way that proves like, hey, we can hire a head coach who can do a better job than John. The roster was fine enough, and I'm going to make one or two improvements that get us to where we want to be, get us into the AFC Championship and stuff like that. So it's, again, a lot of putting a lot of pressure on the GM because of some of the moves that he's made, obviously, by firing a very longstanding head coach.

32:00Robert Mays: firing a very long-standing head coach who I believe he had a very good personal relationship with he said openly in the press conference he said I think some of the things that we've done as a front office are the reasons that John no longer has a job like openly saying that I think that's totally fair and so if you keep your job while the head coach loses his there's obviously increased pressure to make sure you're getting this right and I would say there's even more layers to it than that you mentioned that the Rams have a higher pick than they typically do in these drafts. The Ravens are picking 14th in this draft after missing the playoffs.

32:33Robert Mays: So you're picking in the top half of the first round. You add on to the fact that you weren't supposed to have that pick. It was supposed to be gone in the Crosby trade. And so it almost has even more importance now because you were supposed to trade for Max Crosby. He's no longer on the roster, even though Trey Hendrickson is. So I think that pick becoming something real and tangible becomes very important. And the other part of this is everything attached to the Crosby trade the fact that you did probably have a role in the head coach getting fired and some of the erosion of the roster, I think the reputation of both Eric DaCosta and the Ravens organization as a whole took some hits this spring.

33:12Robert Mays: I don't think the Ravens right now feel quite as bulletproof as they have over the last five to ten years in the way that we talk about them. And I think that only adds increased scrutiny to them making sure that they really kind of turn things around from a draft perspective compared to how they've been going over the last few years. I think that's a great way to put it. Like, I don't think anyone thinks that they're a poorly run organization now, but it's like they had built up such a benefit of the doubt that when a couple of things went wrong here and there, it was like, oh, they'll be fine.

33:41They're the Ravens. Or if they're operating this way, it's fine. They're the Ravens. All the process makes sense. That with the way that last year fell out, obviously you changed the head coaches. Some of that changes. I also think to spin it to this draft class specifically, I think there's a lot of pressure in terms of like the specific players they can pick. Like one thing that I would say is we've talked about this a little bit when the Ravens were drafting really well from, let's just say, like, oh, nine to like twenty eighteen, nineteen, twenty, whatever it is. A lot of the edge players they were picking were a certain archetype.

34:12It was the two sixty plus like those thick, long like type of rushers. And so more recently, they started to go away from that. The David Ajabos, Odafe Owe was obviously a guy who's really more speed oriented. Mike Green last year was a little bit smaller and speed oriented. like they went for a different archetype than they had built this thing from. This is a draft class where it's deep at edge period, but specifically for the guys that used to fit their archetype and do fit the archetype of a Jesse Minter defense where you want these long edge setters. Keldrick Falk could potentially be there at 14.

34:43TJ Parker is a first round pick. Zion Young might be a first round pick. Like these are all guys that fit the mold for what they used to do really well. And if they want to go back to it, they could do it. And then I would say the other thing is the Ravens actually almost on the opposite end for the entirety of time that I've been aware of the Baltimore Ravens they have struggled to draft size at wide receiver they've been able to find other guys in other ways like um uh Hollywood Browns a Flowers like some of these other smaller guys but they have almost never drafted big receivers well Jordan Tyson is in this class Denzel Boston Chris Bell out of Louisville Malachi Fields from Notre Dame like These are all like 6 '2", 205 plus, like you can find real size on the outside.

35:24So there's a lot of pressure for them to find these two things that I think would be really important for their team build moving forward.

35:31Robert Mays: You mentioning the edges in the first round, I think that's another interesting layer to this is that the Ravens roster is in a position where I don't think you can really take, edge is never a luxury pick, that's not what I mean, but if they took an edge rusher in the first round right now, after signing Trey Hendrickson and devoting that amount of resources to a guy in free agency, that room, you're drafting a guy for depth, right? Like that's your building in contingencies to a position group that's on the roster right now. I'm not sure the Ravens right now, based on the current state of the roster are in a spot to be building in contingencies to anything.

36:07Robert Mays: Like they still need a center. They arguably need another interior offensive lineman. Like you said, they probably need a receiver. Still the corner situation is not what it's been in years past. And that's another part of this is that a lot of the time the Ravens were in a spot where it seemed like they were often operating from a position of strength coming into these drafts where they were never scrambling to find answers. It was all about, well, if this good player falls to us, that fine, because we're not sitting here and needing to fill a lot of needs come draft day. And right now, I just don't think you can really say that about the Ravens roster.

36:42Robert Mays: That's not the overall quality that we're talking about. And I think that's kind of what we're used to with this team. That is a good point. Like that's why they can get away with drafting centers and safeties and all these other guys who typically maybe wouldn't go in that range. But I think I would maybe push back a little bit on the idea that edge would be depth. Like I think whoever they draft would very clearly be their edge too. Wouldn't they? Yeah, maybe. But isn't that, isn't that crazy? Like after signing Trey Hendricks into a$30 million dollar a year deal and i i don't necessarily believe they were going to get crossby and trey hendrickson which is an obvious lie but that's what they were telling us nonsense but like after drafting mike green in the second round last year and paying trey hendrickson 28 million dollars a year you still need to draft an edge rusher in the first round based on the state of that room it's not a good place to be i don't think you're necessarily wrong but it's like holy shit really it's not a good place to be but but quarterback edge and tackle might be the three positions where I'm like, until I know it's solved, I'm okay throwing picks at it.

37:44Robert Mays: So yeah, I think that part of it where it just seems like, again, they're scrambling a little bit more than usual. And we're gonna have a conversation next week that I'm really looking forward to. And I didn't have time to do this whole exercise for the Ravens before doing this show. But we're gonna do a show next week about where reputation and reality align when it comes to how we talk and think about these teams and what they get from the draft. And the Ravens are one of the teams I wanted to do this exercise for. Like when you're thinking about why you want to do something and why you want to study something, often a few teams come to mind and you're like, I want the answer for X team.

38:19Robert Mays: And I think the Ravens are one of them. Like when we actually dig into it, are the Ravens the drafting team that we make them out to be? I don't know the answer to that right now. That's why we're doing it. But they in particular are one of the teams I'm most curious to really dive into because I'm wondering if the results might be a tiny bit surprising to us. They really are the figurehead because I think more than any other team, we just say like, oh, whatever the Ravers are doing in the draft, it's good process. And like how much of that process has actually yielded good results? I don't know.

38:48Robert Mays: Here's where I think the difference is. And if I'm trying just off the cuff to try to pin down where over that stretch that you said from 2009 to let's say 2018, they did a lot of kind of bursting their reputation. It was finding guys late in the draft. That's why we would always talk about the Ravens a certain way. Like, in my opinion, the best possible example of this is the 2013 draft where they draft Matt Elam and Arthur Brown in the first two rounds. Those guys are swings and misses. but then you get Brandon Williams in the third round, Kyle Juszczyk in the fourth round, Ricky Wagner in the fifth round, and Ryan Jensen in the sixth round.

39:27Robert Mays: That's how it used to be. Like, even if they had swings and misses at the top, they were consistently finding contributors later in drafts. The Patrick Queen and J.K. Dobbins draft, they get Nnamdi Matabike in the third round, and then they get Geno Stone in the seventh round. And that just seems to be happening less and less. Like, if you look back at the last four or five drafts, Isaiah likely was a fourth round pick. But other than that, like there just aren't a lot of guys contributing for them from the fourth round and beyond. And that's not how we should judge whether a team has good or bad drafts.

40:02Robert Mays: I think a lot of teams would fall into that category. But the Ravens specifically had become one of those teams where this and this draft is a perfect example of this. The Ravens in this draft have eight picks in the first five rounds. They have like four fifth round picks. and it used to be a situation where if they had four fifth round picks, we would just assume one of those guys, even if it took two or three years, would become a really important piece to the Ravens pipeline that we had just kind of come to assume that like existed. And now I just don't think that pipeline feels quite as strong as it did a decade ago.

40:39100%, like it gave their roster a floor that it feels like currently the Ravens roster does not have that kind of floor.

40:48Robert Mays: I'm looking back at some of these drafts. The Ravens in 2022 had one, two, three, four, five, six, fourth round picks. That's obscene. That should be illegal. That's also part of this, right? Is that one of the reasons that they were able to sustain this for so long, this is a volume game, man. It helps to find players in the fifth round when you have four fifth round picks in a given draft. And they do again. And maybe this is just a case of volatility in the draft, the likes of which we see all the time. Where over time, this stuff is going to even out. But if you're Eric DaCosta, I think you're feeling a little bit more pressure right now to have this thing start evening out again after the way that this offseason went.

41:32Robert Mays: All right, let's stay in the ASC North. You wanted to talk about why the Cincinnati Bengals have a lot riding on this draft. Why the Bengals for you? This is more spun towards head coach Zach Taylor. I think there was a chance that he was maybe at least like really on the hot seat last year because they have now gone three straight years where they have not made the playoffs. And I know that they've always been like Taylor, the only AFC North coach to retain his employment after last season. Yes, Zach Taylor, Zach Taylor, the longest tenured head coach in the AFC North, which is just completely insane given how long Tomlin and Harbaugh were there.

42:04But I think there was a chance that he maybe was going to get fired after last year. Obviously, they've been competitive the entire time. They've had decent stretches with backup quarterbacks, all this stuff. And I know that Joe Burrow has missed a lot of time over this period, but we're now at a point where regardless of how competitive you've been or regardless of the circumstances, three straight missed playoffs is a lot. They've already changed the defensive coordinator and given him a year to try to get things in place. The QB is obviously not going anywhere. That's an organization where the general manager is like kind of fake and a different consideration compared to a lot of other teams.

42:38And so to me, like if anybody has pressure in the building, it is going to be Zach Taylor.

42:43Robert Mays: And I think, yeah, I think it's just a matter of like who you can point to if things go wrong. Yes, exactly. If you ask most NFL fans who the general manager is for the Cincinnati Bengals, first of all, they'd get it wrong because Mike Brown is the general manager technically. But the guy who oversees the personnel department is Duke Tobin. I don't I mean, the sickos who listen to this show probably know that Duke Tobin pulls the strings for the Bengals. the general NFL fan watching red zone on Sunday probably has absolutely no idea who Duke Tobin is even if he knows who Howie Roseman is yeah yeah and they shouldn't like let's be real you don't need to know who the the fake GM of the of the Cincinnati Bengals is and that's fine and like and yeah it really is just a matter of like who is going to get the blame for this and this isn't even to say that like I think Zach Taylor's a bad head coach or anything it's just that like if this draft class let's say they spend two of those top three picks on uh defenders so the probably spend all three but let's just say two out of three let's say neither of them are good again and the defense struggles again and it's like maybe they missed the playoffs they're really like losing games 40 to 38 type of team again and they go 8 9 9 and 8 even if we think zach taylor is not necessarily the problem at a certain point that's going to fall on him and so that's why i think this draft class really really matters i'm trying to figure out if mike brown is actually the general manager for the bangles and people are going to yell at me it's hard to find a real answer but it's entirely possible they simply do not have someone with that title i thought for a long time that he actually was the the real general manager by title but i i you know he the duke tobin is the de facto general manager of the bank how much faith do you have in the combination of boyamafe brian cook jonathan allen the steps forward from last year's draft class and this year's draft class which i assume will be heavily focused on defense again being enough in year two of Al Golden to get the Bengals defense to a place where trying to figure out how I want to frame this they don't actively make you want to throw things at the tv um I have a good amount of faith in the vets like I do think boyamafe is going to be um is going to be a really nice piece for them he'll give them a little bit in run defense obviously he's he's like a pretty nice race car type of pass rusher for them Jonathan Allen, I think, does give them more oomph in the middle.

45:03Like this was, even though I think their run defense up the middle was a little bit better last year and the defensive tackles were weirdly like the best part of the defense, I do still think adding a little bit more there is nice. Brian Cook is a huge upgrade at safety. They had some of the worst safety play in the league last year. The rookies and the young players is where I have my questions. I think there's a chance that some of the other young players in the secondary, like DJ Turner and guys like that, could look a little bit better if the front is a little bit better and they're just not you know getting destroyed um that way the linebackers i i'm going to be honest i have very very little faith that those guys are going to turn out like and maybe they do but i just i would still be wanting to add to that room if i could somehow i'm still

45:41Robert Mays: surprised they didn't do anything in free agency and they're just rolling with those guys maybe they do something a little bit later i mean there are guys still out there but the fact that linebacker is not one of the positions they addressed i get if you spend two mid-round picks on linebackers being like we want these guys to develop into these roles but i just expected after the way that they played last year and how poor it was you said the safety place was as bad as any position in the league the linebacker play was they had the worst linebacker play in the league last year i think if you watched front to back what their season looked like and maybe those guys get better but banking on that is i think there's a lot of risk involved there next team i want to talk about here uh team with two first round picks i think that'll come up a lot in when we talk in all the teams we discuss here, but to me, Dallas Cowboys have a ton riding on this year's draft.

46:28Robert Mays: I mean, beyond the fact that they have two first round picks, now they have that third round pick back in the Osa de Gazua trade. And so overall they have a decent arsenal of picks, but I think the reason that this first round pick and the additional one is so important, not only from a on the field football perspective, but from an overall optics perspective is this is, this is it with the Micah trade now. I mean, if you look at it, they already traded next year's first round pick away. And the trading a fourth round pick and the two for Quinn and Williams, like they just don't have a lot of additional draft capital waiting for them anymore.

47:03Robert Mays: It kind of all came out in the wash. And so in the money, I think there are two arguments for trading Micah Parsons. One was the opportunity cost with the amount of money you'd have to pay him. Right. And so Micah Parsons, this is a very crude way of doing it. but bear with me here has an APY of$46 million. So if you just treated it as, okay, now we have$46 million to play with against the cap, even though I know that's not how it works. They've already pretty much spent all of that money. And it was really just on Kenny Clark and Rashawn Gary. That's most of what the money is. Here's caps off in a way.

47:39Robert Mays: The fact that, but that's the funniest part about this is. So that's how, why you have to take the picks and the APY into consideration because you can make a joke about, well, now the Packers and the Cowboys just changed places with the players, but you got the picks back. And so now you, the picks have to turn into something for that move that you made and that kind of calculus that you followed to be justified in trading Micah Parsons. And so I think that making sure you're getting the most out of these two first round picks, just as a bit of messaging coming out of the Micah trade. Because a couple of years from now, when we're looking back at this, if Micah Parsons is still an all pro, we're going to have Micah Parsons on one side of the graphic and we're going to have all the other shit on the other side of the graphic.

48:26Robert Mays: And this is where you have to make sure that that doesn't become a one-sided thing. You know what I do think is funny about this though? And I totally agree. Like the biggest thing at stake here is like the optics of the Micah trade and stuff like that. But like, who is really under heat for this? Like Jerry's not going anywhere. He's probably not going to fire Schottenheimer for this. Dak's not going anywhere. The fact that we were having this conversation already makes it a win for Jerry. It truly does. It truly does. Like, it's just funny that like almost all of these are like something's at stake for someone.

48:54I guess the Rams are in a different consideration where like nobody's getting fired there either, but it really is just like kind of an optics thing. What I will say is I do think that this is a really interesting position for them to be in where I think when you are in like a, we have to get these draft picks right sort of situation, them being in a spot where they don't even have to think about offensive line. I think that is like it kind of makes these two picks like really fun to wield. They can really go in a lot of other directions and not feel like they have to like invest even further into like the meat and potatoes of the roster.

49:26Like they can kind of go any way they want. And these two picks are probably going to be defense no matter what it is. But I think them not having to feel like maybe we need a guard here or something like that. I actually do think that unlocks their draft plan a little bit.

49:39Robert Mays: And the football part of this, and the last thing I'll say about Jerry, it is funny that like, if you have no shame, optics, never, there's never stakes in optics if you're a shameless person. And so like, that's kind of where we are with Jerry and the Cowboys. But on a purely football level here, there is a ton at stake on a football basis, like with the current state of their defense. And we talked about the Bengals not adding anybody at linebacker, the Cowboys not doing anything at linebacker. And if you look at the overall defensive roster, like they need a couple more difference making defensive pieces.

50:10Robert Mays: Like I think you could argue that they need one at safety. They need one at linebacker. And so this is potentially the draft to do it. I floated this to Trevor, Trevor, Trevor, second earlier this week. I'm curious what you think about this. Do we think the Cowboys are like maybe a sneaky trade up team in the top 10 for one of these like true difference making defensive players now that they have that third round pick back? I mean maybe that kind of sounds like something they would do because like I I'm trying to figure out who it would be like maybe if Sonny Stiles falls a couple of picks you do it maybe they're a team that really loves like a Reuben Bain like something like that if he falls a couple of picks like I actually think that that is a good if one of the four elite defensive players in this draft I'm just throwing out numbers here falls to like seven Do you start making calls?

51:02I guess seven would be Washington, so maybe not. But like six, whatever it is, it's going to be like I could totally see that. Or maybe maybe even it's a little further than that. They want to trade up to like eight to get Caleb Downs, especially when you're trying to hop ahead of teams like Cincinnati and the Chiefs specifically, who both could use a safety if they really wanted to. Like, I think that that is entirely possible.

51:21Robert Mays: They brought back Malik Cooker in a five million dollar deal. I don't think that necessarily precludes them from doing something. It's not a player. And PJ Locke is like purely depth. And so the Malik Hooker deal only being a one-year deal, even after adding Jalen Thompson, I think you could probably justify that. And like, I mean, like you said, like edge is still something they could probably do even after trading for Rashawn Gary. But linebacker to me is just like the big blinking light. And I just, the idea of them dropping like a Sonny Styles-esque player into that thing and just like, I don't know.

51:50Robert Mays: There's just something about it that speaks to me. He, Sonny Styles in a Cowboys uniform, that does go hard. that that goes pretty hard and just there's so many different elements to it like wanting to make a splash in like the micah draft the the need that you have the fact that he is kind of a rare prospect at the position you have the picks to do now like again i have no idea if this is their thought process heading into it but there's just something about it that i think makes sense the more that you kind of sit with it and like the last thing i'll say on defense they do like a lot of those like insane athletes and sonny styles obviously just tested out of the park and just about everything.

52:26And so that's, you're selling me on this. I like this one. We'll see if we get there, but I like it.

52:31Robert Mays: I'm glad. I'm going to try to like incept everyone about this for the next month or so before we get to the draft. We're going to take one more quick break and then come back and chat about three more teams.

52:43Chicago, 2011. A cop is murdered. Police and prosecutors swear they have the trigger man. He swears he didn't do it. How far will each side go to prove their right. Like it's just one bombshell after another, you know, where you're like, what? The story of a PlayStation, a brain-eating amoeba, and the relentless pursuit of justice. Off-Duty, out now. Listen wherever you get your podcasts. Hi, this is Ben Mandelker and Ronnie Karam, hosts of the Watch What Crappens podcast, here to tell you that the HBO original comedy series, The Comeback, is back for its final season.

53:23Robert Mays: On the official Comeback podcast, join host Evan Ross Katz along with Lisa Kudrow and Michael Patrick King to unpack each episode. Hear about the show's origins, real-life parallels, and why it still resonates with fans after more than two decades. Stream The Comeback on HBO Max and watch The Comeback podcast on HBO Max or listen wherever you get your podcasts. Hey, this is Adam Grant, host of Ted's podcast, Rethinking with Adam Grant. Let me share with you why smart finance leaders turn to Bill. They know that clarity isn't just helpful, it's strategic. As the intelligent finance platform, Bill uses AI to automate the busy work for nearly half a million businesses so they can focus on intentional growth.

54:02Robert Mays: Eliminate the friction and start scaling with the proven choice. Visit bill.com slash proven to talk with an expert about automating your business finances and get a$250 gift card as a thank you. That's bill.com slash proven. Terms and conditions apply. See offer page for details.

54:20Robert Mays: this is another one that i hadn't thought about but as soon as you put it in there i was like yep i'm i'm there with this you think the minnesota vikings have a lot at stake in this draft why minnesota i sure do and i think it's a similar ish argument to what i was saying about the bangles where the gm is now gone uh kevin o 'connell now has a veteran quarterback again and i know the jj mccarthy thing obviously did not work out but anytime o 'connell has had a veteran it has kind of worked out. And so obviously he's got what he wants there. And I think in terms of if we're trying to think of like, who are we pointing the finger at if things go wrong?

54:53I know Kyler Murray is a high profile player. You're paying him a million bucks. If things go wrong, I think the blame is probably going to fall more on Kevin O 'Connell. And then I think if we think about even the rest of the coaching staff, like Brian Flores has earned a lot of like a benefit of the doubt from a lot of people. Like I think people think that he is clearly overqualified for his position. I think that he is like, he's one of the best defensive play callers in the league. And so I think even if the defense takes a little bit of a step back, because obviously they had a bunch of moving pieces there, I think a lot of people believe that he is a great coach.

55:21And so if the roster falls off or if the team falls off again, they don't get to where they want. I do think that there's a lot of pressure on Kevin O 'Connell. And then I would also say the other thing with the Vikings, they just cut a number of veterans. They're kind of in cap hell and they don't have that many young, like upcoming second contract players that I think that you would want to pay. Maybe Jordan Addison. They didn't find anybody in the draft for four years. exactly exactly like you've got the last really really good one is like jordan addison but there were trades this there were talks this offseason that maybe they would trade him and again maybe

55:51Robert Mays: that's a money consideration but still it's a money consideration and also a off the field choices consideration exactly which like and that matters for stuff like this if we're trying to talk about like who do we want to pay that amount of money to on second contracts you've got maybe dallas turdor who i think took a step last year but i still think it's probably realistically like at best in edge too like this is not like a superstar that we've hit and then donovan jackson i'll leave like tbd obviously only a one-year player so you just don't have that many like second year that guy's a consistent pro bowler we're about to pay for you on your roster right now yeah i think this is really good i think the veteran quarterback part of it matters here because kevin o 'connell has done a very good job with kirk cousins with sam darnold i've said this before and I think the volume on this will get turned up a little bit more if this team is middling again offensively.

56:44Robert Mays: Go look up where the Vikings finished in, like, offensive DVOA or EPA per play in the year where they had Sam Darnold and the last year where they had Kirk Cousins. It's not as high as you think. It's not as high as you'd think. They're finishing, like, outside of the top 12 in a lot of these metrics. And it's fine, right? And you can make an argument that, well, they're doing it with Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins, but Sam Darnold just won the Super Bowl. But I guess Sam Darnold isn't some like tarnished asset anymore where you're the only one who can get this out of him. And so them going back to Kyler Murray, this idea and Kevin O 'Connell saying organizations fail young quarterbacks more than young quarterbacks fail organizations.

57:27Robert Mays: There's obviously going to be examples where the quarterback is not salvageable and there's nothing you can do. And maybe J.J. McCarthy is that guy. But we've seen Kyler Murray at least be a capable quarterback in the NFL. And so if you can't lift up Kyler Murray, then this reputation that you've really started to get as a guy who lifts up all these quarterbacks, I think starts to take a little bit of a hit. And so I do think that there is a ton riding on a ton riding on this year for him. And I think making sure you're coming out of this draft with enough pieces to really kind of help that process and accelerate what you can be this season, I think is a really important consideration.

58:08Right, because if he just makes Kyler Murray look good, but the draft picks don't hit, it's like, OK, we've saved ourselves for a year, but the roster is not set up for us to like actually sustain this thing. If you get both, then it's like, OK, I've secured my position as head coach and clearly proven I can do this with vets. Oh, and also we have two like young rookie pro bowlers like that. That could really do a lot for changing how they can sustain this moving forward, I think.

58:30Robert Mays: And even I think that for some people, it might sound silly to put the quality of a draft on a head coach. And I still think it probably is. But I think them firing the GM like seems like Kevin O 'Connell has consolidated a lot of power in that building and how this all went. And so if it, when that happens, I think there does become a little bit more scrutiny and what the wins and losses look like here moving forward. And I think that's exactly what's going to happen. Two more here that we wanted to hit. I think both of us had this one. The Kansas city chiefs absolutely are one of the teams with the most at stake in the 2026 draft.

59:04Robert Mays: They have three picks in the top 40. They have four picks in the top 75. When, do you know when the last top 10 pick that they're the chiefs when the last time the Chiefs made a top 10 pick that was their pick? Do you know when that was? It's the Eric Fisher draft. 13. So it's been 13 years since the Chiefs picked in the top 10 with a pick they originally owned. Obviously, they traded up to draft Patrick Mahomes. They've only drafted in the top 20 with their own pick one other time in that range. And it was 2015 when they drafted Marcus Peters. That's the only other top 20 pick they've had since because they make the playoffs every year, even when it was Alex Smith before Patrick Mahomes, they were making the playoffs every damn year so now they have the ninth overall pick right is it nine it's nine the ninth overall pick then they again they have four picks in the top 75 that's the thing is it's not just the fact that you're picking ninth it's that you're picking at the top of the second round like you are just you're in a position in this draft that you were just very rarely in and we've talked about this a lot when it comes to positionally how should you maybe be thinking about this because you are in a rare spot like you are in a position as the chiefs to find a pass rusher that you might not be able to find maybe a receiver that you might not be able to find an offensive tackle that you might not be able to find and so the top 10 pick becomes hugely important and now you have that after first round pick and you know with some teams you have you can like try to build an argument an example of how having that extra first round pick might accelerate or might help you as you hit like a mini reset with the Chiefs there's nothing amorphous about it like we we have a very real tangible example of them doing this like the hope is that you just do the same thing this year that you did in 2022 the year you drafted Trent McDuffie and so that in those two first round picks to hopefully go through the exact same process we don't really have to use much imagination to picture how this can work out well for Kansas City totally and like I know that we've said I think maybe on our last show and we were talking about Simmons and the offensive line I know that we said you know you don't always want to be living in this range where you're having to draft a tackle who had like some knee issues coming out or you're having to draft a corner like Trent McDuffie who's a little bit smaller and hoping that he can work out the way that he obviously did you don't always want to be doing that but their track record back there is like fine obviously they've got some misses where like uh FAU did not turn out very well for them and they've got some misses in that range but obviously like Clyde Edwards Hilaire didn't work out but like they've got a couple of hits there and so if they can maybe get lucky in one of those guys turns out the way that they've hit a couple of times and then that top 10 let's say that ninth pick is like caleb downs or something like that or or it's or it's one of the tackles that they really like like a fan or whoever it's going to be that goes a really really long way for like instantly giving this roster juice in a way that they have not had for a very very long time yeah i mean it's a hugely important season because you're picking in the top 10 because you have that extra first round pick like this becomes the most important chiefs draft i mean probably the andy reed era right i mean i think that obviously the mahomes draft we didn't know going in that it was right looking back it's obviously the most important it's really important but in the lead up to the draft in the way that we're talking about the draft this becomes the most important chiefs draft in a very long time they've had two first picks before but one of them wasn't 10 you could maybe argue that like when they traded away tyree kill like and obviously going into that new era.

1:02:32Maybe that's one, but like they were still at the height of their, like they were still winning and going to Superbowl. It's like, that's a much different consideration than where we're at now with them.

1:02:39Robert Mays: Again, those picks were 21 and 30, you know, it's like, they weren't picking in the top 10. They had four picks in the first two rounds, but they have four picks in the top 75 this year. And so I think that it's a similar consideration and because they're coming off of a down year and because that, that first pick of theirs is so high and such a rare opportunity, I do think you can make a solid argument that there's more riding on this draft than there was on the 2022 draft. The last one I wanted to throw out, we don't have to spend a ton of time on this, but I do think you can make a real argument that they're in this conversation, is the Bears.

1:03:16There is a serious, because anytime, this is the case because anytime we do, oh, this team's ahead of schedule. The way those teams end up not on schedule is they mess up the draft immediately after that. That's how you get off schedule.

1:03:31Robert Mays: That's exactly right. I think so many times we have these teams that jump out and are better than we thought, quicker than we thought, and then they get out over their skis a little bit and do things they might not have otherwise. The Bears didn't do that. You know, they did not do that this offseason. They actually scaled back a little bit. But I think in order to make sure you don't suffer the same fate as some of those teams, you have to continue to draft well. and that part of it even aside they have three top 60 picks in this draft three top 60 picks and they have needs with those picks like they need a safety right now they need another front piece right now and then the dolman part of this now needing to solve center moving forward in a way that you didn't a month ago like i just feel like there is after the dj more trade if let's if dj Moore had been, they'd gotten a fifth for DJ Moore or a fourth for DJ Moore.

1:04:24Robert Mays: I think there's maybe a little bit less pressure to get this thing right. But now the fact that you have those three top 60 picks and you probably need to find a long-term answer at center, there's just a lot more riding on them in this draft than we ever could have predicted in like November. Like imagine them being on this list in November. You'd be like, ah, f*** it. Like they're playing with house money. There's not a lot riding on this draft. And now because of how kind of everything is unfolded, it really does feel like there's a lot at stake for them next month. Totally. And it feels funny, too, because like I think usually when we do this with teams like, oh, they need to hit on the draft.

1:05:00It's like, oh, they just don't have a lot of good young players. The quarterback's a good young player. They've got two quality young receivers like Colston Loveland is young. They just hit on a backup running back last year who was who was good. They have. But those are all like just your offensive skill players like they need. They need more. I think, again, you talk about they need a new center. They could probably use, they still need to find a left tackle. Like I know Trapillo played well, but they're not confident that he's, who knows how he's going to be after the injury. And who knows if he's even like a true long-term starting tackle there.

1:05:27And then like on defense, they've got a couple of youngish players, but it's not nearly the same core that they have like on offense. And like, they need to hit a couple of picks on that side of the ball.

1:05:37Robert Mays: And I think the other part of this is that if you're a team that maybe was better than people expected, and you do try to microwave things a little bit, often that involves trading away draft picks and involves being really aggressive in free agency and so then the draft picks become a little bit minimized one because you have fewer of them and two because you might have fewer holes coming into the season at first glance but because they didn't do that and now the improvements have to come via the draft the draft becomes even more important than it would be otherwise i do think too this is this is going to be a great experiment of sorts after we are just coming off the heels of like what Houston did and then what Washington did with like oh we got the young quarterback immediately like let's microwave it and like obviously Houston's still a pretty good roster in a lot of ways but like Washington fell apart last year and I still look at their roster I'm like I don't know if they're going to be good again because of the way that they microwave some things whereas like you mentioned the Bears even with some disaster hitting them like with Dolman retiring they didn't really like freak out and go do a bunch of moves they were just like these are kind of the smart team building things that we're going to go about it.

1:06:41We're going to go about it slow. We trust our core. We trust our coach. And hopefully you hit a few of those picks to keep it going.

1:06:46Robert Mays: Yeah. And if you want to overcome some of the regret, like the regression concerns and you want to stave off some of the issues that have pulled teams back down into the muck after a season like this, drafting well is how you would do that. All right. That is all we've got for today. We'll be back tomorrow chatting a little bit more about the specific prospects in this draft. A lot of outliers in this draft for a bunch of different reasons. Size, age, production. So we're going to talk about a lot of those players tomorrow and what we make of those outlier characteristics. Which ones are truly worrisome?

1:07:23Robert Mays: Which ones can we look past? Probably talk about, I don't know, what they're going to do. A dozen players tomorrow that fit that mold in some way or another? Yeah, I think so. And it's a lot of edge players. I'll give that as a sneak peek. All right, that's all we got. See you guys tomorrow. Appreciate you listening. Thanks for tuning in. Make sure to hit that subscribe or follow button so you never miss an episode. If you enjoyed what you heard, please like, comment, and leave a rating. We'll see you next time.

1:08:07Robert Mays: big deals. For enterprises, Vanta is your AI-powered hub for compliance and risk, bringing together data from across your businesses and automating workflows so you can prove trust at any moment. Vanta scales with you at every stage. That's why top companies from startups like Cursor to enterprises like Snowflake choose Vanta. Do security and compliance right. Get started today at vanta.com slash TED Audio. Hey, this is Paige from Giggly Squad, and you guys, it's here. McDonald's Big Arch Burger. The new Big Arch is here and it's the most McDonald's McDonald's burger yet. It has two quarter pound patties, three slices of cheese, tangy Big Arch sauce, lettuce, pickles, crispy and slivered onions, and a poppy and sesame seed bun.

1:08:53It's everything you love about McDonald's burgers between two buns. The Big Arch sauce is tangy, creamy, and it's the perfect pair to the Big Arch burger. Go grab a Big Arch burger today, but warning, you're going to need both hands to hold it. At participating McDonald's for a limited time while supplies last. Over 90 of the top 100 U.S. accounting firms trust Bill to simplify and secure BillPay. That's proven financial infrastructure built on over a trillion dollars of secure payments. Visit Bill.com slash proven for a special offer.