Why are these four offenses stuck in the mud?

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1:34Robert Mays: Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. I'm Robert Mays. Today, we're talking about some offenses that just feel a little bit stuck in the mud so far this year. Three teams that I think came into this season with, if not high expectations, then some optimism about what the offense might look like. The Houston Texans with new offensive coordinator Nick Haley. the Las Vegas Raiders, but Chip Kelly and Geno Smith coming aboard and the Broncos in year two with Sean Payton and Bo Nix and kind of leading that offense. Those three teams through three weeks are 32nd, 30th and 31st in offensive success rate.

2:10Robert Mays: Not what you expected based on, again, some of the rosier pictures around those groups heading into the 2025 season. Also, the Atlanta Falcons had a terrible outing against the Panthers last week, and They also have been a little bit stagnant offensively compared to their preseason expectations. And so we took a look at those four offenses with me and Ted Wynn from The Athletic and just trying to figure out what's going on here. Like if we're trying to diagnose the problems that we've seen, what is at the core of why these teams have struggled through the first three weeks of the season? So really enjoyed this conversation with Ted about a couple offenses that just have struggled to get going through three weeks.

2:49Robert Mays: Let's get to that discussion right now.

2:57Robert Mays: joining us now to do a little bit of diagnostic work on some of the offenses that have been stuck in the mud for the first three weeks of the season it's our buddy from the athletic ted wentz how you doing man good how are you doing wonderful excited to have this conversation not a fun one right you never want to be in a position where you're having to talk about teams that are struggling but i think these three teams the four teams we're going to talk about are notable for a few different reasons. One, they have been some of the worst offenses in football so far this year. Like I mentioned in the open, three of the teams that we're gonna talk about, the Texans, the Broncos, and the Raiders, according to True Media, currently rank 32nd, 31st, and 30th in offensive success rates so far this year.

3:38Robert Mays: But beyond the results, I think one of the reasons that these teams are notable is the expectations coming into the season. And it's a couple different buckets, but with the Texans and the Raiders, you have new offensive coordinators, where you have pretty high hopes, right? We have either an upgrade at quarterback or a quarterback that we're excited about. We brought in a new play caller to get the most out of these guys. We think that we can be pretty good. That hasn't happened. And on the Broncos side of it, you have a second year quarterback who we all thought, or they thought, might take a step forward this year.

4:09Robert Mays: Same offensive infrastructure, same offensive line, a lot of continuity. And in fact, they've taken a pretty significant step backwards over the first three weeks. So I think coming from a lot of different levels, these teams have created plenty of intrigue around their offenses over the first three weeks or so. Yeah, I agree. And a theme with a couple of these teams, it's like, you know, you don't invest in your offensive line. This is what happens. That's going to be a consistent theme as we run through these. The four team that we wanted to mention here, and they don't really fit the bill in the exact same way, but I absolutely think that they're worth throwing in based on just some of the discussion that's happened around that franchise this week.

4:49Robert Mays: The Atlanta Falcons are 20th in that same success rate stat, but we already have some moving parts with that offensive staff in Atlanta. They fired their off the wide receivers coach earlier this week. offensive coordinator Zach Robinson is moving from the booth down to the field. Anytime you see stuff like that start early in the season, I think it's at least worth hitting on. So the Falcons haven't been quite as bad as these other three teams so far this year, but I definitely wanted to throw them in because I think there's a little bit of consternation about how they played last week against the Panthers.

5:19Robert Mays: And I think it's created a little bit of urgency in that building specifically. Yeah. And one theme that we see with the Falcons and there's something that me and you discussed before the season was their use of pistol. Like, we thought maybe they used a ton of pistol because Kirk Cousins couldn't move and it was just an easy way for him to get those stretch handoffs. And when they moved to Michael Penix, they still stayed in pistol. And, you know, some of that might have been because they just didn't want to change up the offense drastically in the last few weeks of the season. but they've kept that theme and they're still running a ton of pistol.

6:00And, you know, and it's not like pistol is just terrible or anything like that, but it does affect your play action passing game. NFL live had a big thing on it today where, you know, like you're not getting that extra couple of steps where the defense has to think, is he going to hand a ball off or not? So it really affects the boot game. It seems like every time Michael Penix is trying to run boot, there's a defensive end right in his face. And that's another thing, another issue, too. Their run game is awesome. I love their run game. B. John Robinson is one of the best backs in the league. They're so good at a true wide stretch run game, but they don't run play-action pass.

6:39They're 22nd in play-action pass rate, and I don't know why that is. I don't know if Penix is just uncomfortable with his back turn to the defense. And that could be a theme, too, because he seems to really struggle when defenses are changing a picture on him. And that's an issue.

6:58Robert Mays: We'll get into a lot of that. I want to talk about the specifics with Atlanta a little bit later in the show. Let's start with the Texans. This team is 32nd in offensive success right through the first three games. They brought in Nick Haley as their new offensive coordinator. It has been a struggle so far, to say the least. And I was listening to a couple of Texans radio shows this week and checking into a couple of local Texans podcasts. And there is just a level of panic there so far. And honestly, beyond panic, just disappointment. Like, I cannot believe we're here again where we move on from Bobby Sloick.

7:30Robert Mays: They bring another guy with Patriots ties, which I think there's a lot of anxiety and skepticism around Patriots centric moves down there in Houston, considering how the last decade or so has gone with Nick Casario, Bill O 'Brien, Jack Easterby, Nick Haley spent some time in New England. And how much of that matters, I think that we can argue with. But I do think it's leading to some of the just discomfort that a lot of people around that team are feeling based on their performance over the first three weeks. So let's dig into this. If you're looking at what is plaguing the Houston Texans offense through the first three weeks during these struggles, where would you start that conversation?

8:09I mean, it has to be the offensive line. You know, part of the reason why they moved on from Sloic to Kaylee is because they wanted a better protection system schematically. They wanted C.J. Stroud, who has high football intelligence in my mind, to be able to change the protection and really be part of that instead of being in this hot route system where you're kind of just, you know, throwing hot routes every time you sense pressure. But the problem is they didn't upgrade the offensive line. I mean, you could make the case that they got worse from a personnel perspective, and that's really playing out.

8:47Like their left tackle, I have a hard time pronouncing his name. Ariadne Aresri.

8:53Robert Mays: Ariadne Aresri. Aresri is like he's one of the worst left tackles in the league right now. He's struggling. Like Josh Allen from the Jaguars just killed him last week. So they're having a lot of trouble pass protecting just man-to-man. And like schematically, it just doesn't seem much better to like the first play of the game. They ran a play action where they're full sliding and the running back was responsible for blocking Josh Allen. But he was running a play fake in the other direction. So schematically, things don't look much better. And they're just struggling personnel wise. I feel like I said this on Sunday night coming out of that game when you obviously didn't have a good chance to go back and rewatch it.

9:39Robert Mays: but just what it felt like in real time and just doing a quick rewatch on Sunday afternoon. This feels like an offense that's trying to account for their weaknesses in pass protection and all the ways they're trying to account for it actually compounds the problems that the offense is already having. And there are two different things that I would point out with that. One, when you're the exact play that you just mentioned is a perfect example. CJ Stroud is a really good play action quarterback. And I do think that they should use a lot of play action with CJ Stroud. But the Texans specifically in this game, they're doing a lot of like seven and eight man protections, these wadded up big play action shots, and they're still getting penetration on those plays.

10:20Robert Mays: And so you're getting the worst of two worlds when you're doing that. One, you only have two guys out in the route. So if that stuff is gloved up, you have very few places to go with the ball. And two, you're not getting the benefits of having more bodies and protection. And when they when the play action looks good for Houston, it's not these big seven, eight men in protection. Like, let's take shots. Let's run nakeds. It's let's get drift routes that are quick off play action. Like, let's have it be the ball out of his hands quickly. And so I do think leaning into a little bit more of that and trying to drift away from, hey, we need seven or eight guys in protection because our offensive line is so bad.

10:56Robert Mays: I think there might be some benefits on the other side of that. And then the second thing that this is I understand this, right? If you're Nick Haley, I don't blame him for doing this stuff. Because if your line is bad, these are the things theoretically you should be able to do. But the second bucket of that is screens. The amount of awful, ineffective screen passes in this game, mostly to the perimeter, it plagued them the entire day. And I get it, right? It's third and eight. Let's just get the ball out quickly. The details on those are not refined enough, and the perimeter blocking is not good enough to warrant how often they're doing it.

11:30Robert Mays: And so I think that sometimes when your offensive line is bad, you start to retreat within yourself as a play caller and an offensive staff. And I think you're really starting to feel that the levers they should be able to pull and the escape routes they should have from this sort of pass protection have actually been bigger problems than if they were just playing a more traditional offense right now. Yeah, the screen game is a major issue. I had that on my notes. Like the, I don't know if they're off, they don't think their offensive line is athletic enough to run to the perimeter, but like all their screens are so compact that these defensive ends are just able to run straight out to the screens as soon as they try to throw the ball there.

12:11some of it is just not well designed like they try to do kind of like a fly sweep one to nico collins where they they ran him on a fly motion across the formation and try to throw to him but it was again just so close to the quarterback that defensive ends are able to get there and on some of their seven eight man stuff where they want to have some help with the tackles like their chip blocking stuff it's just not good like they just know it's bad yeah they don't chip the defensive end so they just end up wasting a body there like you like you mentioned um so they need to get that stuff sorted um run game wise like i feel like they're getting some blocking and they should be getting some more yardage but their backs just aren't very good like nick nick chubb is just not you know he's a shell of who he used to be um they're trying to run a ton of different concepts like they're not they're not like a sean mcveigh outside zone system they're trying to do some Patriots stuff where they're multiple, but it is don't look very comfortable running all these different concepts.

13:10Robert Mays: You look at some of the run game stuff. I mean, there are a couple of plays where Jakob Johnson's on the field and you're watching it back. It's just like, this is just like a lead ISO. Like there's nothing funky or creative about this. And that's okay. Right? Like you don't have to have a run game with a bunch of bells and whistles, but when you don't have an offensive line, you trust to move anybody. Then I think it becomes a problem. And I think, again, if you look at some of the teams around the league over the last few years that have used more 21 personnel in the way the Texans are trying to, there are plenty of benefits to be realized with that.

13:44Robert Mays: But I think for this offense specifically, they're not realizing any of those benefits. And I'm curious what you think about this, but when I watch them, I kind of want it to feel a little bit more spread out. Like I'd like this offense to be a little bit more dynamic. I'd like to get a little bit more speed on the field. I'd like to get more pass catching options on the field, because I think what they're doing right now by condensing everything and getting heavier, it's not benefiting them in any way. So I think I'd kind of like to see them trickle into a little bit more 11 personnel, just a little bit more verticality to the offense, getting some guys on the move.

14:18Robert Mays: I do think that even if that seems a little bit more dangerous because you're leaving your offensive line out to dry a little bit more theoretically, I do think based on the way that they're constructed, I kind of want to see them play that style a little bit more, more Rams over the last couple of years where Nick Haley also was then Patriots, which is what it seems like right now. Yeah. I mean, when you're trying to compact everything and you're getting no push, it's just, it's just a mess wadded up inside and, you know, spread out a little bit, trust CJ Stroud to get rid of the ball and create some space on your, on your screens.

14:53If you're trying to hit those perimeter screens, it's just so tight right now. Those defensive ends aren't working. Yeah.

14:59Robert Mays: So right now they it's, they're running 11 personnel about 70, 72 % of the time. But other than that, it's really just 21 personnel. So if you look at it, they're currently fourth in the NFL in the amount of 21 personnel that they're using. And I just don't think they've realized a lot of the benefits from that. You mentioned the backs. I don't think the backs have been very good, which is not surprising, right? When you lose Joe Mixon for what might be the season and you have Nick Chubb who was available on the street deep into the offseason there's a reason for that there just is not a lot of consistency or reliability on the ground woody marks you see a couple flashes of what he can do as a pass catcher but obviously even in pass protection there's a lot to left to be desired there so when you combine those issues with the backs and pass protection with just the talent deficiencies along the offensive line i think you're starting to see some of that when you went back and you watched the game last week because I don't, I want to at least address this.

15:50Robert Mays: How do you think CJ Stroud is playing right now? And what sort of culpability do you think he has in the way that the offense has struggled so far this season? I mean, I just think it's tough. Like the wide, like he's not getting a lot of help from his wide receivers. I think Christian Kirk getting back will help, but some of the timing with Kirk was off at the same time. So, I mean, when you're off at the line, is struggling the way that they are. The run game is struggling. Your receivers aren't good. I mean, all you have really is Nico Collins. I just don't put a lot of blame on him. I just think it's a very tough ecosystem for any quarterback to have success in.

16:32And he's not like a creator quarterback where he could create all these second reaction type of plays. So I don't put too much blame on CJ Stroud right now.

16:42Robert Mays: Yeah, I don't either. And I was open to it going back and rewatching that game. I'm like, hey, if we get to a place where this guy just may not be as good as we thought he was going to be, and that might still be true, right, based on what he was as a rookie. But how much is he contributing to the issues that they're having? Obviously, the pick is a very high profile play. The one he throws to Jordan Lewis in the flat, like that comes at a huge moment in the game. It's a bad decision. But that's also an issue in play design. like the way that that thing is drawn up the lack of space between the guy that's supposed to control the flat on that play in the corner allows that cornerback Jordan Lewis to play both of those routes at the same time so again it gets back to some of the details within the offense either way that's a bad decision but outside of that play there were not that many snaps over the course of that game against the Jags where I was like oh man like this is a throw CJ Stroud has to make or this is a play that CJ Stroud has to make.

17:34Robert Mays: He's leaving stuff on the field. I think with a couple of the other young quarterbacks we're going to talk about, I do feel like they've had more of a hand in those offensive struggles than Stroud has based on, especially the way he played against the Jags last Sunday. Yeah. I mean, part of it is like we have such high expectations for Stroud. And then, you know, a lot of the blame was on Bobby slow week and now he has a new offensive coordinator, but the problem is the personnel remains the same. So I think that's why Stroud is getting a lot of blame right now, but I agree with you. I just can't put too much of the crux on him.

18:07Robert Mays: The other part of it I think is worth mentioning is that even though they have a new offensive coordinator, the staff is almost entirely the same. And I think that's at least worth bringing up when it comes to them figuring out who they want to be offensively, how far they want to drift away from some of the ideas that they've been using over the last couple of years. And just from the outside looking in my perspective is that, and we heard a lot about it this off season, but it really does feel like one of the big things they wanted to change was exactly what you mentioned with Stroud having a little bit more flexibility in the pass protection rules.

18:44Robert Mays: That needed to change. If you look at the way that teams were able to pick on the Texans last year based on how rigid those rules felt and the fact that they were set it and forget it before the play and they were hot all the time, teams took advantage of that. Like the only team in the NFL, I believe, that had a higher unblocked pressure rate than the Texans last year was the San Francisco 49ers, which again, when you think about offensive DNA, that maybe shouldn't be surprising. So it seems like the priority was, we need to get that right. And so they fired their offensive line coach, they fired their offensive coordinator.

19:14Robert Mays: The assistant offensive line coach that was already there, Cole Popovich, does not come from the Niners world. He comes from the Patriots world where Nick Kaley was. And so the pass protection stuff has changed into Patriot-centric stuff where there's a little bit more flexibility. Every other aspect of the offensive staff is the same So it kind of feels like, well, our issue is really the pass protection stuff If we can get that ironed out, a lot of this other stuff we can carry over Because that wasn't the issue And so it kind of feels like there's this muddled joining of two worlds right now And they don't know exactly between those two things Exactly where they want to end up and wind up Yeah, and we also have to remember We just think that because CJ Stroud has high football IQ that he's going to be able to just go up to the line of scrimmage and it'll be a seamless transition for him to change protections.

20:05But he's going from a type of system in his first two years where he literally did none of that to now where he has that responsibility. So it's going to take some time for him to really master that skill as well. There was a couple times in the first couple of weeks where he should have slid the protection a different way where he just didn't. So this is something that he needs to get used to as well. Yeah.

20:29Robert Mays: And I think that trying to get the ball out of his hands, not on screens quickly, that that's where I think this team really needs to lean in. Like if there's one aspect of this where it's like, what can they be leaning into a little bit more? Again, those drift route type plays to Nico Collins. And even that's another part of this. That's just frustrating with this team. Even when they're doing stuff that they should be doing, there are these tiny little details. It's like, you got to be kidding me. Like the ball that Nico Collins quote unquote drops on that drift route against the Jags last week.

20:57Robert Mays: Well, he drops it because Dennis Gardek makes an incredible play to get his hand on that ball. He tips it. It gets wobbly in the air and Nico drops it. So even a play where it's the right call, it's the right design. There's just one thing that's like a tiny bit off. There was a jet sweep that they had. I think it was to maybe jail a knoll at some point in that game where instead of handing it to him on the jet sweep, they missed the handoff and Stroud has to flip it out to him. Like that's just kind of where this offense is right now. And you combine that with the amount of early penalties on series where Ursary gets a holding flag in this game.

21:32Robert Mays: He gets a face mask flag in this game. I think there are just so many little things where they're shooting themselves in the foot and some of the pass protection issues are causing them to retreat within themselves. I don't think this is a lost cause. I just think that they need to do some tweaking and some sorting out about how they can account for their weaknesses without defanging the offense and setting themselves up to fail in the way that they have over the first couple of weeks. Yeah. And I think having Kirk back in the lineup will help, too. I mean, he's not like that classic quick, you know, quick win, quick type of slot, but he can do some of that stuff and he can help in a quick game like you mentioned.

22:08Robert Mays: The other part of it that just a little bit frustrating watching this team, and I noticed this throughout the entire game against the Jags, is that there's a real physicality gap between the entire Texans offense and what the Jags are bringing to the table. And obviously you're going to see that most with the offensive line. That's where it's going to manifest the most. But even when you think about the way that some of the Jags DBs and linebackers were rerouting guys off the line of scrimmage or some of the perimeter blocking in this game, like Dalton Schultz is a frustrating player sometimes.

22:37Robert Mays: I think there are some moments where as a blocker working through contact when it comes to contested catches, there's just not a lot there. And so I feel like that is one of the other issues right now is that this is just a team that is not bringing a lot of oomph to the table on pretty much any level. And I think that you're really noticing where that's holding them back at this point. Yeah, I agree. And I don't know if that's a problem that you could fix throughout the season unless, you know, some players step up. It's going to be tough. All right, we're going to take our first quick break here and then get back with a Denver Broncos team that is one spot above the Texans in offensive success rate.

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25:08Robert Mays: All right, let's talk about the Broncos. You were set up to talk about this game in part because you went back and studied the Chargers defense on Sunday, which just like one quick second about the Chargers defense. My God, are they fun to watch right now? like I we know the star level talent we know that Jesse Minter is a really good defensive coordinator but going back and re-watching that Broncos Chargers game today I'm like Tyre Tart looks like a superstar like Caleb Murphy has a couple really nice moments as a pass rusher Tuli Pato Pelo two looks really good like pretty much every second to Sean Hand has a couple like you know high leverage impact plays essentially everybody on that Chargers defense is putting their stamp on the game in some way over those four quarters.

25:51Robert Mays: It's just a really, really fun group to watch right now. Yeah, and it's so easy to see why Jesse Minter is going to get a ton of attention when the coaching cycle hires, the hiring cycle starts. That's because one thing he's able to do is he gets the most out of these players that you don't think much of when they sign him. Like last year, it was Puna Ford. This year, it's Tierra Tartt. and like Tart looks like a superstar in the run game. Yeah. And in the past game, like, you know, he's knocking passes down at the line of scrimmage. He's reading out these screens. He's everywhere. Like it's pretty stunning to see, like he's one of the best interior defensive linemen I've seen on film this year.

26:33So it's just a really, I think nod to Jesse mentor that he's able to get the most out of these type of players.

26:41Robert Mays: I think it's important to acknowledge how good the competition was on the other side last week and why that Broncos offense struggled. But this is not just a one game thing. I mean, they had a really rough day against the Titans in week one. You know, the Colts, that was a better showing, but now we got two out of the three weeks we've seen from this Broncos offense where they just did not do much of anything down to down offensively. So when you went back and you watched that game, what do you think right now is the biggest issue that is currently facing this Broncos offense? They have no intermediate game.

27:13Like, and we saw this last year and we even saw it with Russell Wilson running that offense. It's either a deep shot or it's a quick, it's a screen or it's a slant. There's just nothing in the middle of the field or nothing from that 10 to 20 range. And their run game is also very, um they they get either stuffed at the line or they create an explosive they're 29th in success rate in the run game but 12th in explosive uh run rate um and they're 29th in air yards per attempt over 10 yards yet they're 14th in air yards per attempt over 20 yards i i don't know how to separate the stats to just look 10 to 20 but that just tells you is it is either a deep shot or something under five, you know, five to 10 yards.

28:02And, um, it's just hard living that way.

28:06Robert Mays: So here's my question. And I think I absolutely see that as well. And we saw that last year, right? They're either pushing the ball downfield. And I think it's a couple of different, uh, categories. You can put those plays in Bo Nix will rip a deep shot if it's there. And the one that really sticks out to me, I think it was against the Browns where he hits, I want to say it was Mims just running straight down the middle of the field against cover two. And he was willing to let those things rip. He'll also rip like a deep dig off play action if that's the number one read in the progression. So if you give him the opportunity to launch it, he'll launch it.

28:38Robert Mays: But other than that, there's not a lot in the intermediate and it is a lot of screens and checkdowns. So if we're trying to figure out why that's the case, do you think that says more about Bo Nix or do you think it says more about other aspects of the offense, be it the receiving options they have or the construction of the offense itself? I definitely think it's a little bit of both because it just doesn't seem like he's looking in that area at all um and also they don't have that type of receiver I think Corden Sutton is that type of receiver but they also have a bunch of you know gadgety type of receivers like Mims or um or or Franklin uh I think Evan Ingram is supposed to be that guy that could kind of attack that area of the field but he hasn't played this season um and typically in in Sean Payton type of offenses they have that power slot like you know marquise colston and then michael thomas with the saints but they just haven't had that type of player uh it was supposed to be devon and then they traded him away exactly so um i yeah it's just like really boom it's a very boom or bust type of offense and against the chargers they had some shots open that bo nicks just missed i mean it works when you can hit those shots but when you when you miss those especially in against a defense like the chargers where they challenge you to hit those and you can't it's going to be a tough day at the office yeah i think there's some people who are probably listening to this and saying hey if he hits a couple of those and we even having this conversation i think yes like even if he hits a couple of those this is still a team down to down that has really struggled and i think that lack of an intermediate game is a really good thing to point out i mean there are plays there was a play in the fourth quarter where bonex takes off and there's been a lot of that Right.

30:22Robert Mays: Like we've this is one of my frustrations with Bo Nix, even when I thought he was playing pretty well last year, is that there is not a lot of creativity in the pocket after wherever the first option in the progression is breaks down. If that isn't there and he feels even a little hint of pressure, he is not sliding and resetting to throw in the pocket. He is not a creative player from that space. He's really good outside of the pocket. He's good on boots. He's good on design sprint outs. He's a really good scrambler, but he is not sliding and resetting and making plays from that area. And I think you saw that a bunch in this game.

30:57Robert Mays: And I think that is only accentuated when the pressure starts ramping up. And the Broncos last year, one of the reasons that Bo Nix was able to be so successful is that this was arguably the best pass protecting group in the NFL. They continue to be very good, right? Against most teams, the pass protection is going to be good. This is a group that's good up front. They're healthy up front. But Sunday was an example where when it goes the other way, things start to devolve a little bit. So he, Bro Nix on Sunday was pressured on 43.8 % of his dropbacks per next gen. That is the second highest pressure rate the Broncos have faced in a game over the last two years.

31:36Robert Mays: And he did absolutely nothing when pressured in that game. So far this season, he is dead last in the NFL and success rate when pressured. And last year, the only person to finish below him was Russell Wilson. And so it was a problem a year ago. And my concern was, let's say the pass protection is a little bit worse this year, either because you have some injuries up front or it's just not as good, right? Like some things are unstable from season to season. Maybe you have a bad McGlinchey had some rough moments on Sunday. Maybe McGlinchey takes a small step back and you're not quite the unit you were last year.

32:10Robert Mays: Is he able to work through some of that and to be somebody that can endure some more issues in pass protection because he's so ineffective against when he's pressured? And so far, the answer to that is no. He's been even worse in those situations than he was a year ago. And I think that was the number one area where you needed to see improvement from him. And it just hasn't happened so far. Yeah. And to me, he's a quarterback that's pressure sensitive. and that's some of the reasons why I think he missed some of those passes late in the game is because if he's getting pressured early on I think he just gets sped up in his mind and things just start to unravel for him a little bit so I don't know if that's a problem that you can fix but it's an issue the run game is also something that absolutely needs to be pointed out you alluded to it a little bit but steam is 30th and rushing success rate overall per next gen and they have the third most expensive offensive line of football and one of the best pass protecting groups in football.

33:04Robert Mays: And when I watched that run game, I'm curious what you think about this. There are some designs and some approaches in the run game where I'm like, what are they trying to accomplish here? Like you look at some of the angles that they're trying to create in the run game and it's little things like there were a couple of moments where they're asking Quinn Miners, who is arguably the best right guard in the NFL to reach Tyre Tartt, who's in like a tilted nose alignment over the center with zero help from the center. It's like, it doesn't matter if that's like prime Zach Martin or Larry Allen, like no one is going to be able to make that block.

33:41Robert Mays: And when I watched some of the, just the ideas in the run game, it just feels like the design of it doesn't fall in line with how buttoned up and detail oriented. So much of the past game design and the protection design is, do you see something similar? Or do you feel like there are other reasons that the run game is maybe struggling a little bit more than you might think given the offensive line talent this team has no I agree with you I also think it doesn't help that Bo Nix is a lot more comfortable in shotgun and they're kind of stuck in that shotgun world where you know you can't get under center and access some of those runs that make it a little easier on the offensive lineman I also I said this today on social media and I truly have come to believe it.

34:24Robert Mays: If you are looking at offensive success or effectiveness around the NFL and you think, why is that offense better than I thought it was going to be? And then you think on the other end of it, well, why is that offense worse than I thought it was going to be? It's not a one for one thing, but it is directionally accurate. If your tight ends can block, you're probably better than people thought you were going to be. And if your tight ends can't block, you're probably worse than people thought you were going to be. And with the Texans in that Jags game, talking about Dalton Schultz, and then in this game with the Broncos against the Chargers, like watching Adam Troutman and Nate Atkins trying to handle people on the edge, it's a problem.

35:02Robert Mays: And so I think there are just little tiny nuances to the way that this team is playing right now that's affecting the run game in very real ways. And that's kind of bleeding into some of the down and distance situations they're having to face when you're putting a little bit more on the young quarterback. I agree. And it's going to be a huge issue when we talk about the Raiders too. The last thing I'll ask you about the Broncos, and I'm curious about this because I think too often we do this thing where we say, you know, when a team doesn't, motion equals good, right? Like if you use a bunch of motion, that's a good thing.

35:35Robert Mays: If you don't use a bunch of motion, that's a bad thing. And motion has benefits and drawbacks on both sides of it. The Broncos specifically though are really kind of in their own zip code this year when it comes to the lack of motion that they are using. So they are at 38.8 % overall, which is dead last in the NFL. They are at 15.3 % according to NextGenStats when it comes to motion at the snap. For context, no other team in the league is below 22.8 % in that stat, and the league average is 34.7%. So we're talking about 15 % versus a 34.7 % league average. when you watch this team do you feel like how static it is before the snap is affecting them in a negative way yeah I could definitely see that and like you mentioned motion helps out with angles and things too because you're moving those linebackers and you're just making angles and climbing to those linebackers a little bit easier uh for the offensive linemen and I think with Sean Payton his his thing has always been like we're gonna mix a ton of our personnel like We're going from big to little every single play, and that's how we're going to create some confusion against the defense.

36:49And I think because of that constant changing of personnel, he kind of loses focus on the motioning a little bit.

36:57Robert Mays: Yeah, that's a good point. Creating confusion, creating uncertainty, making defenses account for a lot of different things, they do that with personnel over moving parts before the snap. But it really is noticeable when you just look at the landscape of the league and then you look at the way the Broncos operate. They are going about this in a very different way than pretty much any team in the NFL is. You know, with the Texans, I do kind of see maybe a path out of this with some structural changes. With the Broncos specifically, what do you think the solutions are here? Like, what do you think needs to change or what do you think they can tap into for this to look a little bit better over the rest of the season than it has so far?

37:33Yeah, I mean, I think more motion, like you mentioned, but I think like you do you have to get Bo Nix to attack the intermediate parts of field. I just think you can't play offense if it's all deep shots or, or quick game. Like, you know, you have to be able to hit some, you know, dig routes and drift routes and those things. And if he's uncomfortable doing it, you kind of have to force them into learning how to access that part of the field, at least maybe like five, 10 % more. It'll never be a strength of his, but you're just so predictable in offense when you can't do that.

38:09Robert Mays: Let's get to this next one here. the team that is 30th in offensive success rate is a team that you know, I'd probably argue too well at this point. And that is the Las Vegas Raiders. You cover the Raiders extensively. You have a Raiders podcast that you used to do with our old Raiders beat writer at the athletic to Sean Reed. This is a team that you watch, I assume every single week in depth. So the floor is yours here. What do you think have been the main reasons that this Raiders offense under Chip Kelly has been so ineffective and struggled so much through the first three weeks of the year?

38:41There's a lot of reasons, but the main reason is off the line. They're so bad. I mean, they thought that they could... I mean, Ashton JT...

38:53Robert Mays: I just sense how many times you shook your head while re-watching them when you say that. It's just like, oh God, they're so bad. There's something about the tone in which you said that that was absolutely incredible, but continue. I'm sorry. I mean, Ashton, 101 % of Ashton Gentry's rushing yards is coming after contact. He's getting hit in the 101 % and he's getting hit in the backfield so much. And there was this big, you know, there's a huge debate before the draft about, do you draft a running back before fixing the offensive line? And they ended up drafting Ashton Gentry instead of Armand Membu, who looks awesome with the Jets.

39:30But that's the approach they take, and their approach is we're going to develop the guys here. But it hasn't gone just bad. It's been a disaster. They just can't block anybody up front. Schematically, they're having issues blocking simple stunts. The commanders ran the same blitz, and it's a simple blitz where they just blitz Bobby Wagner up to the A-gap twice. and they got a free runner on it twice. So personnel is bad. The protection scheme is bad. And everything kind of just falls apart from there.

40:11Robert Mays: I'm curious, when you watched that group last year, and the same five guys played for a good chunk of last year, even if it was different positions, right? Jackson Powers Johnson played center while Jordan Meredith was playing guard. This staff wanted to flip that. They had Jordan Meredith move to center. And then at least at the beginning of the year before he got hurt, Jackson Powers Johnson was a right guard. They had Alex Kappa play there last week. I think that based on the tone of Pete's comments after the game, I think kind of regrets that having Alex Kappa play in that game. But that group of five from left to right with Colton Miller, Dylan Parham, Jordan Meredith, Jackson Powers, Johnson, DJ Glace, based on how they played last year, did you have any faith that that group could be okay this year?

40:52Robert Mays: Did you understand why they were willing to stand Pat based on what you saw in the back half of last season? I thought they definitely should have added a couple of pieces, but I understand because you have DJ Glaze, who was a rookie. You have Jackson Powers Johnson, who was a rookie. You're counting on those two to take a step up. But then there's just a weird thing with Jackson Powers Johnson that has been going on in offseason, too, where on film, he's clearly your second best offensive lineman to Colton Miller. but in camp they were trying to put him in like a competition uh first they move him from center which i agree with i think meredith is probably going to be a better center in time um than a guard um but then they they put him competition with alex kappa who just hasn't he's been one of the worst guards in football for a couple years now the the bangles who struggled on the offensive line cut him and the the raiders rushed and signed him five million dollars for some reason but um And they're putting Jackson Powers Johnson in a strange competition with Alex Kappa.

41:57And Jackson Powers Johnson was ready. He was back from a concussion. He should have been ready to start this game. But they surprised everybody to start Alex Kappa in his place. And Kappa just wasn't good, like you mentioned. So there's a weird dynamic there. I'm not sure what's going on there. And DJ Glaze just looks like he's regressed. He doesn't look like he's gotten any better. he got killed by Von Miller against the commander so those are major issues

42:25Robert Mays: when you have an offensive line like this and I think that there are a lot of teams that do this in any given year I mean I can think of four or five examples off the top of my head the Bears have done this so often the Bears did this last year right where so you have this group of five where okay maybe we'll have one mid-tier free agent but overall like you know we've already paid for Nate Davis and we drafted Darnell Wright in the top 10 And, you know, Tevin Jenkins has shown some stuff and we'll put him back at left guard. And, you know, Braxton Jones is our version of DJ Glaze. Like he's a young player who's drafted in the middle rounds and we'd rather chip away at this and see if this guy can work.

42:57Robert Mays: And when you think about the mindset in the offseason, you can rationalize it. You're like, all right, we have enough here. But what happens is most of the offensive lines in the NFL constructed like that where you're shooting for a certain floor. you need an offensive line coach and an infrastructure that's going to maximize that group if you approach it that way. And not enough of these staffs are able to maximize those groups. And we've danced around it a little bit, but the offensive line coach for the Raiders is Pete Carroll's son, who does not have a proven track record as an offensive line coach in the NFL.

43:31Robert Mays: And so sometimes the way that you build these rooms, you have to justify it based on how much you think you can maximize that group. And so far, I think that calculus has been a little bit off when it comes to the Raiders. And I think that regression you just mentioned from Glaze is a perfect example in that regard. Yeah, I think if you take that approach where you do the bare minimum with your offensive line and just hope that coaching works, you better have not just a good offensive line coach, you need to have an elite offensive line coach. And I think there's only five of those guys out there.

44:03And like you mentioned, They don't even have an experienced offensive line coach with Brennan Carroll, who his experience in the league was an assistant offensive line coach in Seattle to some pretty terrible offensive lines. And, you know, it it's I don't like blaming the offensive line coach for everything. But when there's issues like you can't handle a stunt communication issues, free runners, that's on offensive line coach. so it's been a failed experiment with the offensive line and things just have not you like you draft ash and genti but he's a failed investment right now because he does doesn't

44:39Robert Mays: have any room to do anything this group in terms of the skill position talent bowers and genti are obviously the headline guys right like these are two top 15 picks that's where the offense is going to run through for the most part based on how you've invested your resources when you think Think about those two guys specifically and maybe why we haven't seen the production we might want out of them through the first three games. How much of that is the overall health of the offense and how much of that specifically is what those two are contributing? Because I know Bowers has been banged up. Like when you watch him right now, what type what version of Brock Bowers are you watching week in and week out so far this season?

45:15Yeah, Bowers injury is a major, major problem with his offense because he was the number one receiver for this offense. Jacoby Myers was number two and everything could work. If Bowers is that alpha guy that could, you know, just be that produce for your offense and take attention. But right now he's struggling to run. Like he just can't cut. He's not separating the way that you would expect him to. And that affects everything just because the Raiders don't have a ton of receiving talent. I think Trey Tucker is an interesting receiver and, you know, he could, he could do some things, but he's kind of a number three, you know, your number three speed guy.

45:53but he's being asked to do a lot. A lot of his yards came in garbage time. So I think we shouldn't overrate, you know, his three touchdown game. But yeah, I just think without Bowers being your number one, everybody has to get moved up a peg and they just don't have the skill to do that.

46:08Robert Mays: What about Gentry? Like, do you feel like Gentry has contributed to some of the issues with the ground game? Or do you think he's been the victim of just really bad play up front? I know it's hard to separate those things sometimes, but it does feel like there have been a couple moments when going back and rewatching some of their run game stuff where it's like, there's probably a little bit more there if he has a feel for what he's supposed to do up front. And so I feel like it's hard to separate those things, but if you had to try, do you feel like Gentry is consistently getting what's blocked or do you feel like he is also contributing to some of the issues that they've had so far?

46:42Yeah, there's definitely like a few plays where I thought he should have been a little bit more patient before bouncing it outside or he should have made a cut inside instead of going in this direction. But that's more like rookie running back stuff where he needs to just get some more reps to be able to see those holes kind of develop. And also it's hard to be patient when you're getting hit in the backfield as much as he is at the same time. Where I think he needs to really get better at is he needs to get better with his protection and learning how to pick up blitzes and those sorts of deals because he shouldn't be off the field as much as he is when the Raiders get into passing mode.

47:22I also think the Raiders need to get him involved in the passing game. Like, you know, his last year at Boise State, he wasn't involved as a receiver, but the year before that, he was phenomenal as a receiver. He used to play receiver in high school. In training camp, they did all this stuff where they're going out and empty and running him on routes and running him on deep routes. So I think he needs to get involved in a passing game that way, and he could make an impact if you get the ball to him in space in a passing game. But they've just been unwilling to do that.

47:52Robert Mays: The other two main characters in this and the biggest changes, arguably, that happened this offseason are hiring Chip Kelly and trading for Geno Smith. Let's just talk about the contributions from those guys and what you've seen from them so far. When it comes to just the construction of the offense, the ideas, how it's all tied together, is that something that you're disappointed in right now? Or do you feel like the offensive line talent specifically is just torpedoing what is pretty solid and thoughtful offensive design and architecture from Chip Kelly so far? Yeah, when Chip Kelly was first hired, I was a little worried because, you know, these college to offensive, these guys that come from college or offensive coordinators that come from college, defensive coordinators that come from college have been awesome, actually.

48:37but these offensive coordinators that come from college, they always seem to struggle with certain things like protection. And we're seeing that kind of play out. And I'm just disappointed in the ways that they're using Gentile. Like I mentioned, they should be using him in the past game more if they're trying to get the ball to him in space. I think the offense is too static as far as using motion to, to help the offensive line, which is an issue with some of these other teams that we we've talked about too. But I definitely think they need to use more motion to make things easier on the offensive line.

49:12The protection scheme needs to get buttoned up, and they have to find different ways to get Ashton Gentry to ball. I also don't like the way that they're using Brock Bowers because they're using him as a wide receiver a lot. And I get it. He's not the best blocker. But at the same time, you're losing the advantage of having a great tight end if you just keep splitting him out wide or just being so unwilling to involve him in the blocking scheme. Like he's good enough to beat nickel corners and safeties and those things. But you're, you know, you're, you can't create those true explosives if you're not involving him in the run game.

49:47And he doesn't have to be the main point blocker at all times, but that's where you have to scheme up different ways to make his life a little bit easier. Like you see what the Colts are doing with Tyler Warren. He did come in as the best blocker, but they're using him in line a ton. but Shane Steichen's finding a ton of different ways just to make his life easier and give him assignments that are easier and they're able to create explosives because he's getting matched up against linebackers.

50:13Robert Mays: I think Laporta is a really good example of this. Like early in Laporta's career, I think that they did a really good job of creating opportunities and angles for him to be a useful blocker, even if he wasn't going to hold up like at the point of attack as like an inline guy in the way that you might want. Just, he was a rookie tight end. He was a rookie pass catching tight end. And over time, I think that he's really started to develop in that area because they've given him time to develop there specifically because they made it easier for him over the first couple of years of his career. And so if you're going to be in all of this 12 personnel, there are ways that you can help and hide those tight ends who might not be the strongest, most capable blockers in that moment.

50:50Robert Mays: The last thing, what have you thought of the Gino experience so far? because in week one, he was incredible. In week two, it was maybe the worst game I've seen Geno play in like the last three years. Like just a lot of bizarre misses and just stuff that, I mean, you can quibble with Geno's decision-making a lot in terms of some of the balls he's going to try to fit into tight windows. Accuracy is not typically the issue and that was the issue against the Chargers. And then last week, I thought it was kind of a mixed bag. I thought he was obviously under pressure so much during that game, but I think there were moments where he invited some of that pressure.

51:22Robert Mays: And so it feels like we've had one good game, one bad game, one mixed game from Gino so far. How much of this and how much of the offense's struggles would you say lie with him in terms of what you've watched for the first three games? Yeah, I mean, he's getting more pressure than he did when he was playing in some of those bad Seattle offensive lines. So it's a tough life to live as a quarterback. But I also do think you have to adjust and get rid of the ball faster at times, too. You know, I think, like you mentioned, he's a deep shot hunter. Like that's just who he is. But when you're, you know, you're faced with all this pressure and offensive line that's not blocking, you kind of have to adjust your game and get rid of the ball faster as well.

52:03So I put that part of the, the offensive struggles on him, but you know, I, I don't put too much of it on him. All right.

52:12Robert Mays: We're going to take one more quick break, come back and chat about the Falcons and then get out of here. All right. We're going to talk about Atlanta here again. Again, they're not quite as it hasn't been as much of an issue for the Falcons or three games it has for these other three teams. But because of some of the moving pieces this week and just because of, you know, I think a little bit of anxiousness and antsiness with the offensive staff there over the past week or so. I did want to talk about Atlanta coming off of getting blanked by that Panthers defense. When you went back and you studied the Falcons so far this season on offense, where they have run into issues.

52:46Robert Mays: What do you think for the most part has been the source of those? I think the offense is too vertical like your receivers are running fade routes they're running curls and comebacks and they love the deep out routes too like I think they're running more deep out routes than any team in football and I get it like Michael Penix has the arm to fit those ball balls in but it's just a very low percentage type of route and I think some defensive backs are sitting on those type of routes and I think part of it is because Michael Penix is just he's not a guy that wants to attack the middle of the field this has been a weakness of his since um since college and there's opportunities to hit the middle of the field I think there I counted three times in that uh game against the Panthers where he could have a huge play if he just looked into the middle of the field but he didn't on on one of those plays um it was his interception where he uh he threw one to the flat right to the the flat defender I forgot who was, but he had a dig route coming open.

53:46Robert Mays: Yeah. Yeah. He had a dig route coming wide open. I think McLeod was running it where he could have hit it, but he didn't see it and he went straight to his check down and the, and the ball got picked off. So, you know, typically you see quarterbacks that are either really good runners or are a little bit shorter who don't attack the middle of the field, but Penix is not those things. So I don't understand why he is unable to really see those routes develop in the middle of the field. Chow Smith, Wade, by the way, is his name. I always get that confused. There's three one syllable things right in a row, and it's just easy to mix them up.

54:21Robert Mays: But that's exactly the play that I had in mind. I mean, there are times where we can run into issues when it comes to screenshots, stills of quarterback decisions in real time. You don't know if his eyes should be going there. You don't know what the progression of the play is. That play, it's Ray McLeod that's coming open over the middle of the field. He's staring at him. he is looking at Ray Ray McLeod in an ocean of space. And I will say based on the timing of the route, he had just started to break inside. So if he was going to throw it when he was looking at him, it would have taken a little bit of anticipation, but it's not as if this is, well, why isn't he throwing to the open guy?

55:00Robert Mays: And it's because his eyes are all the way on the other side of the field. He looked at him and then went to the check down. And I think as we talk about all these offenses. The first three we talked about, I think there are a lot of structural, there are some structural issues beyond the quarterback play. When I watch Atlanta, I think a lot of what they're doing offensively, I have no issue with it. Like it's dynamic. The run game is good. The design of the run game is good. Like what they did to the Vikings front and the plan they had for some of those early down stunts and run blitzes from Minnesota, they handled it about as well as you could have compared to how some other teams have recently.

55:38Robert Mays: to me, it's the quarterback is struggling. Like you are seeing what his limitations are within this offense. And I think exactly what you're saying with the verticality is a hundred percent correct. Like teams are playing over the top of those vertical routes. And when those vertical routes outside, the numbers are not there, he's immediately checking the ball down. And some of that is because of pressure. You know, he's, he's really struggled against the blitz against the Panthers. I think that they really heated him up a decent amount, but he is moving through these progressions and getting to these checkdowns way faster than he has to.

56:09Robert Mays: Like, I think that there is just a sped up element to the offense and how he's playing the plays. That's not really necessary considering the quality of pass protection that he's getting, even without their right tackle coming into the season. Like, I don't think I've really noticed Elijah Wilkinson in a bad way so far. I don't, I don't think I look at this offense and say, Oh wow, I can really tell they're playing with a backup right tackle, but he's moving as if he's really worried about a backup right tackle. Like that's what the speed of the offense feels like. And so when you're asking him to progress through things on time, that's just not really happening.

56:45Robert Mays: And I'm really curious why that's the case. He's not taking any sacks, but in this instance, specifically, I kind of wish he was hanging in the pocket a little bit longer than he is. Yeah. I mean, I feel like he's skipping steps like he's looking deep and then not looking intermediate and then going straight to his check down and it's also a problem that his delivery is a little longer too so when he throws these check downs these guys are just flying towards the check downs like that interception that that he threw as well um schematically i will say like they gotta run more play action like 20 second and play action rate is just not good enough when your run game is this good and i love their run game everything they're doing schematically they're doing some really interesting stuff with inserting the tight ends and all those things and they took it to another level even from last year as far as involving their tight ends in the run game um i just think like there's because they're inserting all these guys like there's so much opportunities for cool play action plays like just look at what the rams are doing with puka nakua running guys through the a gap and those sort of things you could just copy and paste those plays and i think it'll make the offense better so i i think you know play action needs to to increase and i think there's a huge opportunity to do it too.

57:57Robert Mays: I really think that what you said about the release though, it, to me, it plays into maybe why the play action game is struggling a little bit. They've run more play action plays out of the pistol than any other team in the NFL, which is not surprising. Like this is a smart offensive staff. They know what they're doing. If we're going to have all of our run game be out of the pistol, then all of our play action game has to be out of the pistol. But because he has that elongated release, if you're not creating space for him in the pocket, things get condensed much quicker because he needs more room to get these throws off.

58:28Robert Mays: And I think you've noticed that a lot where when he's in the process of starting his throwing motion, you wouldn't say he's being pressured necessarily, but then by the time the motion is over, it's getting disrupted in some way. Like as defenders, either they're a half step closer to him coming off the corner or a guard is being walked back, maybe a little bit further into him than you might think. And so there are just these subtle things about the unique way that he plays the position that I think we're slowly realizing some of the limitations of that. And I was really hoping that the limitations would start to get marginalized a little bit.

59:05Robert Mays: And some of the strengths, whether it's just a pure arm talent, some of the accuracy on some of these outside the numbers throws, we might see that a little bit more. And I think we've seen them less and you combine the elongated release, some of the sprays, some of just the bizarre sprays that we see from him once in a while when he's trying to make touch throws. And then the other part of it is he cannot, I've talked about this with Bo Nix. I think it's even more pronounced with Penix. He cannot reset. If he has to move off of his spot, he cannot reset to throw. And so if anything is disrupted, it really becomes an issue because he's not really dangerous as a scrambler, despite what the 40 time we'll tell you.

59:44Robert Mays: And he's not good at slowly and kind of subtly maneuvering around the pocket to find new throwing lanes. So I think there are just a lot of little things where the passing game at its best looks absolutely beautiful. Like it's humming, it's explosive, but I think it's a little bit more fragile than you might want it to be based on some of the idiosyncrasies of the guy that you have playing quarterback, despite the fact that his highs are very, very high. Yeah, and I think that game against Carolina, which was his worst game as a pro, You saw all the negatives on his scouting report from Washington just get magnified in that game.

1:00:25So you will see if defenses kind of copy that game plan. But it is concerning.

1:00:31Robert Mays: Yeah, I just I kind of want everybody there just to take a breath. Like, I think that there is enough to like about the offense and there's enough talent there. And I think there's enough talent in the coaching staff there where it's like, let's not overreact to any of this stuff. And I think they're already doing some of that. They just fired the wide receiver coach. They fired their wide receivers coach and they have the offensive coordinator moving down to the field. It's like, I'm not sure. And I get that, right? Like you watch a performance like Sunday and I think everyone starts to get a little bit antsy.

1:01:01Robert Mays: But it feels like everybody there, including the quarterback, could benefit just by taking a breath. Like we just don't need to play with that level of urgency at some points. And I think that actually got him into a lot of trouble on Sunday. And I hope that those struggles don't amplify that even more when I actually think that going the other way might benefit him and might benefit this offense. I agree. I think of all the offenses we've talked about, I'm probably least concerned about the Falcons. I think there are answers there for this offense, not only to get through the struggles, but to be a really good offense.

1:01:36So I hope they find those answers soon because I think it's there for them to be a good offense.

1:01:42Robert Mays: I think that's worth pointing out though because again this is about offenses that maybe have underperformed expectations and even if the Falcons aren't bottom three in the NFL and success rate like based on the way that they've built this team and based on the ambitions they had coming into the year being a back half of the league team and success rate especially given your run game that is underperforming expectations and so I do think they apply to the conversation even if it's not the exact same way that the some of these other offenses apply to the conversation. Ted Wynn, always great to chat with you, sir.

1:02:13Robert Mays: Let people know what you're working on this week, where they can find you on The Athletic, your writing schedule, and just some of the stuff that you have coming out on the site over the next few days. Yeah, I'm writing on the Raiders offense. We don't have a Raiders beat writer yet, so Raiders fans are starving for some content on The Athletic. I'm writing an article about why they're struggling. You catch me on the Just Win podcast. My new co-host is Marshall Newhouse, And he's been awesome talking about some of the Raiders offensive line struggles. But yeah, that's pretty much it for now. Awesome.

1:02:45Robert Mays: Thank you guys very much for listening. We will be back tomorrow with the week four preview. Me, Dave Hellman, Derek Klassen, very much looking forward to that. For now, that's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you very soon.

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