Wild Card Sunday and Monday Preview

0:28Welcome to the Athletic Football Show. We chatted a little Bills Jags, Niners Eagles, Chargers Patriots, and Texans Steelers. Really enjoyed digging into all of this with Derek. Let's get to it right now.

0:47Part two of our wildcard preview here on the athletic football show. Got four games with this one. Obviously the three Sunday games plus the Monday game. We're going to be hitting these in chronological order. Let's start with the Bills at the Jags. These games presented by Bad MGM. The Bills are one and a half point favorites in this game. Let's start there. What do you make of that? I don't think they're the better football team at this juncture, but also at the same time... I'm shocked that you think that. Okay, but also at the same time, imagine telling someone before Halloween that the Buffalo Bills would, one, be playing a playoff game against the Jaguars, but that they would only be a one and a half point favorite.

1:31In a road playoff game against the Jaguars. That is completely insane. The fact that we've arrived there, I think that says a lot about, I think it says more about the Bills, honestly, but yeah. We hit this on the first show. Just want to kind of set the table of how we got here with each of these games. The Jags season has been, it's been weird as hell. Like, there's no way around that. It's been perfectly, like, it's been a perfectly Jaguars good season. Does that make sense? Like, A good Jaguar season could have only happened this way, and it should have only happened this way. Just think about all the beats of this Jags season, right?

2:02You have that game against, the crazy game against the Chiefs on Monday night, which was incredibly fun. You have all these turnovers early in the year. You have that game against the Seahawks where they just get wiped off the face of the earth, the offense does. And then we brought this up a bunch, I have at least, over the last few weeks as we've kind of sat with what the season has been. A lot of these teams who won double-digit games and feel like a threat to win multiple games in the playoffs had a moment this year where it just felt like their season was over, where it was like, okay, cool.

2:34Like year one of Liam Cohen didn't go the way that you wanted. We'll regroup and get better. And that was when the Jags played the Rams in London. And then they come back from that London game, come back after their bye, the Jacoby Myers trade happens. And this Jags team who had won a decent amount of games are in the year. But again, a lot of it was turnover driven. The offense was like bottom five and passing success rate. None of it felt substantial real. After the bye, they now have turned into what feels like one of the most real substantial teams in the entire NFL. It's a lot about like what we talked about the Bears on the Saturday preview, where it's like for the first eight weeks of the season, the record might have been fine and they had some good moments that didn't feel real.

3:18Like we watched the Chiefs games and we were like, oh, that's crazy that they did that. That's probably not going to happen again. And I don't know if they're real. And then as you get to like six on the goal line, yeah, the pick six on the goal line, Trevor falling on his ass and then getting up and score. Like it just, none of that game made any sense. And so none of that felt real. They make the Jacoby Myers trade. And even honestly, for the first like two or three weeks of that, I was like, okay, it's cool. Like Jacoby Myers is what we thought he was going to be for them. He's like a safe guy over the middle.

3:43Trevor trusts him. This still feels a little bit too, a little too late. Like it would have been nice if they got to start the season with him. And then as you get to like weeks, 13 weeks, 14, like when they played, I know the Titans are not a great defense but when they played them I think in week 13 that was I think the first game where I watched that passing offense and I was like oh shit like they this could be real if they can do this against some real defenses I'll believe it and then they had the insane game that they played against Denver and then I know Indy's defense isn't great either.

4:11The Chargers game too. Yeah the Chargers game that's right. They were incredible. It was a strange game because obviously Trevor throws a couple interceptions you have the weird fumble that gets a turn for a touchdown the way they looked against the Cardinals. That was one of those games where I think it was because it was in a late window and I was just watching it really closely. But it was one of those things that happened in real time where I was just like, I kind of like this. Even with the turnovers, how vertical the offense felt, it just seemed like they were trending towards something very real.

4:40And now you look at it, the Jags overall, and I think the difference between the Jags and the Bears, we don't have to like sit in this, but the Bears defense is still a bad unit. The Jags defense is a borderline top five unit combined with what the offense is doing. By weighted DVOA, the Jaguars are third as a team in the NFL. The only team they're behind is the Seahawks and the Rams. That's it. That's insane. Like, we're at a place where if you sat here and with a straight face said, I think the Jags can come out of the AFC, that's not a crazy thing to say. I think I kind of do believe that. But I think we're just going to look really dumb when they lose this game.

5:20But I think I really do believe they are underdogs in this game. I know. I know. But when I said on the week 18 Sunday show that I really do believe like this might feel like the AFC championship game, I think there's a good chance that we come out of this game being like that. Whoever wins this game does feel like they can do it. OK, so we have a Jags team that I picked Anthony Campanile for assistant coach of the year yesterday. Right. I mean, that's the defense looks great. The offense looks great. Trevor is playing the best football of his career. They're there again, they're third in way to DVOA.

5:47There's a chance they can win the Super Bowl. They are one and a half point underdogs in this game. So where does that leave us with the Buffalo Bills? It is January 8th. It's 4 p.m. Central time. How do you currently feel about the Buffalo Bills? I think at least a couple of points there on that over and under are purely just like Josh Allen might go nuclear, which he like he can do even against really good defenses. I think that he's proven that he can do. But at the same time, like there have been games against some of the better defense, especially ones I can get after the quarterback a little bit, which that's not really how this Jaguars defense wins necessarily.

6:22But like you think about the Falcons game, the Texans game, like teams that can like get on them with a pretty good game plan. Every now and then you see the Buffalo team struggle. And I will say like there, I've harped on this all year when they can get under center and they can run the ball and they can be in like all the heavy stuff that they want to. It's not just that they control the game that way. The only thing they're good at as a passing offense is getting into that stuff and throwing down the field, which I actually do think is probably the best way that you can beat this Jags defense.

6:48Like if you watch the Denver game, they played Denver's offense pretty well for the most part. The couple of times that they got beat were when they were in some of their split field coverages and Denver did a really good job of maybe it's cover six and they like run off both the quarters guys with two posts and they just run it deep over into that void. They did some really good stuff like that. And the Bills, that's the best stuff in their passing game. So if they can live in that, they'll be good. whenever they've not been able to do that this year they've been a little bit shaky and the Jags run defense has been excellent this year I mean and it's excellent against everything under center runs it doesn't really matter uh the personnel packages that you're playing with like the Jags run defense the numbers are very very from too high it's a lot of in the same way that we always talk about the Eagles and the Chargers being like you know maybe the success rate is like just okay but they don't give up explosives and they like again like them just being okay as a run defense sometimes by success rate is actually really good when you scale for how good they are when they're a pass defense when they get you into those spots yeah they're like top 10 in a lot in a lot of those metrics and so they're and they're top five in rushing success rate defensively i was looking the next gen numbers against all heavy personnel runs and so i think that's worth pointing out for the bills and so the only thing and this is like very very granular but the jags run defense has been relatively worse against weak side runs this year and the bills run weak side runs more than half the time.

8:07I think it's the second highest rate in the league per next gen. That's like the one tidbit I could find of like where the bills might have a definitive advantage on the ground. The bills run rushing offense is good enough that in any game they could explode. And that can happen, but it's not like a matchup that's tilted in their favor as we get ready to do this. It's not. And I will say like I, the bills run game can't have these good games where they just, you know, five, six yards at a time, couple of eight yard runs here and there. They have been at their absolute best when James Cook has like two, like 20, 30 yard runs, whatever it is.

8:39And he really is able to move them immediately into field goal range and all that jazz. The Jaguars since week 10, they're one of only five teams who have allowed three or fewer runs of 20 yards. Like they, they really do not give up explosives. And it's because kind of like we talked about on the coach of the year show or on the award show, when we were talking about assistant coach of the year, they tackle incredibly well. Like these guys fly around, they hit, they're not afraid to take like really aggressive angles. They don't really give you a lot of those explosive runs and the Bills probably would need a couple of those to I think comfortably win the game.

9:09You mentioned this and I think if I'm trying to build a plan for how the Bills can throw the ball in this game, the Jags were the 11th worst passing, by passing success rate, they were the 11th worst defense out of base personnel this season per next gen stats. And so with Dalton Kincaid back healthy, hopefully, what does this look like when the Bills can throw the ball out of 21 and 22 personnel? Because those are the chunks that I think you are going to need in this game. Because if you're going to get into some of those third downs where it's third and seven, the Jags are comfortable playing man in those situations.

9:43They bring a lot of funky pressures. The Bills are 27th this year in success rate against man blitzes. Like they just, that passing offense, like situationally, they just have so many limitations. And so unless they're able to dictate how the game goes on that side of the ball because they're running the ball well and they can kind of use complimentary play action off of it, I just think that there are so many limitations personnel-wise, especially with the receivers, and it's led to such a volatility in the passing game against a really good pass defense. If the Jags are able to play their game on that side of the ball, I think the Bills are at a serious disadvantage.

10:19And the Jaguars' corner room is deep. Like, I don't think they have a superstar there, but all those guys can hold their own. And they're all playing well. And they're all playing their best self, yes. Especially against this team. Right, who are you scared of? Is there one, on the perimeter, is there one single matchup that you think favors the Bills, even if it's a bunch of DBs that most general football fans will be watching for the first time this weekend? Monterey Brown, Antonio Johnson. I don't think, like, Jerry and Jones. I can't even, like, say this, like, full-heartedly. I was going to say, like, okay, well, you know, They got a couple of Brandon Cooks plays the last time, but I think all these Jags DBs are better than Brandon Cooks right now.

10:56I really think it is going to be kind of difficult for them if they can't run the ball the way that they want. It's silly to kind of come back to what seems like a really simplistic answer, but the joke you made about Josh Allen's doing a lot of heavy lifting when it comes to the line, that's what needs to happen. That's what needs to happen in this game, and that's what needs to happen throughout these playoffs. He needs to have nuclear performances. We need to have the sort of games where you look up at the end of it and he's created three or four explosives. And then on the ground, he has seven carries for 86 yards and a touchdown.

11:28Like that is the type of game I think they need from him in order to do some damage against what is a very good Jaguars defense. And honestly, I will say, I think he can do that if it's a 24 to 20 game and you just got to make two or three superstar plays. If this becomes a game where the Jaguars score like 30 and he's got to make a bunch of those and the pressure is really high to like throw all the time, obviously he's great. but just like when he's not equipped with that many good receivers against what is a pretty good Jags passing defense. I do think that is a pretty heavy lift that he's going to have to have.

11:57So do we think he's going to need 30 based on what you expect the Jags offense to be able to do against the Bills? Kind of. You really do. You think you think that they're going to be able to like move the ball at will in this game? I'm so I what I normally say against the Bills run defense is that you can get after them in the run game. The Jaguars cannot do that. They are 31st in rushing success rate since the bye. they've been terrible and which is funny because they actually had to like when the when the passing offense was it was the best part of the offense yeah they actually had a couple of games where they ran the ball really well but they really have not been able to do that like they just we knew that this was a line that was driven more by some of the stuff they can scheme up rather than some of the talent and I think you felt that as the second half of the year has gone on they've just gotten away with being a really really good passing offense and I will say like the run game has been supplemented a little bit by the fact that Trevor will scramble now like he actually is running at a higher rate than he ever has like he's since week 10 which that i keep using week 10 because that to me feels like when the jaguars became a real team um he has a 7.7 scramble rate which is the highest of his career by almost two percent and it's higher than like caleb bo nix brock purdy it's the same as mahomes he actually has the same exact amount of scrambles and scramble success rate as drake may and so i do think that he's probably going to have to run three or four times to to be able to do that instead of and i would i would think about using him as a designed runner in this game because he is a really good athlete the fact that we finally have this version of Trevor Lundin I know he's doing all this it's like all all we've ever asked for the fact that this doesn't feel like the sort of game where the opponent's running game can take over to me creates a path for the bills because the numbers are there's a lot there's a lot baked in here they are 10th in defensive passing success rate I believe in the back half of the season.

13:43Some of that is driven by the fact that they played against the Browns. They played against an Eagles team that did not complete a pass in the back in the second half of that game. And so there's really low success rate games as part of that equation. I don't know if that's necessarily an indication of the overall quality of the pass defense, but this is the sort of defense that you used the phrase in the last show talking about bespoke game plans. This is, that's what this defense is like that in that exact way. I think that's why they are potentially well positioned for the playoffs, because if you cannot grind them down on the ground and you're going to be in enough third and sevens over the course of the game, this coaching staff is pretty good at devising hyper specific ways that they want to get after the teams that they're playing against the second half against the Patriots, the game they played against the chiefs.

14:32Like we've seen them do that this year against good quarterbacks. Even the Ravens game, I think, was actually one of the highest, like week one was one of the highest blitz rate games that they had in the Sean McDermott era. And obviously the Ravens scored a ton, but that was because of the run defense really more than anything. I'll be curious what that sort of bespoke game plan looks like against the Jacks. Because in your mind, I think you, if you were trying to build a way, and you know Trevor well enough that like, you know where the bodies are buried. I think in your mind you would want to see a team or you would you wouldn't want to see a team Play a bunch of man coverage and make him make throws the entire game Yeah, because because I do think like he's playing incredibly well right now and I think he's seeing it well And I think whenever he's played at his best even before but even I think right now When he knows he's getting zone coverage pre-snap and he can like kind of pick a side and all that stuff Because their their passing game is a lot of pick a side It's not as much like pure progression as some other teams He's phenomenal at that.

15:24He'll get to the top of his drop. He'll rip it He can throw the ball really hard through some of these tight windows I do think when you ask him to throw against man coverage you can get some games where he's just not fully dialed in with some of the accuracy every now and then and so I think asking him to do that that might be the way to go what I will say is like you know Buffalo has oscillated in terms of like what that bespoke game plan is sometimes it'll be heavy man sometimes it'll be some weird zone stuff when I looked at what Trevor did against Indy where he's taking a lot of the underneath stuff and he's doing a good job of like dealing with some of the simulated pressures like okay that's awesome.

15:56He did the same thing against that Tennessee game that I mentioned earlier. And then you look at what he did against the Broncos, where it is a lot more one-on-one main coverage, and he was making some of those throws. I'm like, he's proven to me he can kind of do both with the current construction of this offense. So I really am excited to see where the Buffalo takes it. In the first month after they made the Jacoby Myers trade, the splits between man zone were heavily in favor of what they were doing against zone coverage. It was him just ripping the ball into voids. And when they were forcing him to make some tighter window throws, the offense just was a little bit less dangerous.

16:26That wasn't really the case over the back half of the season. Like those things, the gap between those numbers really started to close because they were finding a ton of explosive plays against man coverage. Some of that is the ability to like turn Brian Thomas Jr. into this like outside the numbers one-on-one vertical piece of the offense and allowing him to just kind of be that while everyone else got to do the more well-rounded nuanced stuff. And so they have an option if you want to play like that too. And the fact that Maxwell Hairston doesn't seem like he's going to play in this game, missing that long speed against the team that is really deploying Brian Thomas Jr.

16:59in that way. I think that's something to keep in mind. So the fact that, again, the man zone quality has kind of come to a similar level over the back half of the season. I still think if I was trying to build the gameplay I'd want to see from the Bills, I think I just want to see it be as funky as possible. You want that Arizona game again? Yeah, I think so. You just want it because you thought it was fun. I think that's what I want to do. I think it's, we're setting a bunch of simulated pressures. There's a ton of disguise on the back end. Like, can we get one? Can we get one or two? I think that is the version of the game I'd want to see from the Bills, even if, in your mind, he's been a little bit better if you give him some of those windows against zone coverage.

17:39And I get that because, like, he's, I think he's gotten much better about knowing when to holster stuff and knowing when he's got a bad look and stuff. But once a game, he does still try to give you one. And I also think that the Bills front, like Rousseau is playing well, Bosa, this is why you went out and signed Joey Bosa. Like if you make him hold it for a tick in the pocket, can some of those guys get home, especially if you're going to be bringing some funky pressure looks like the Jags offensive line still is overall the weak link of what this offense is. so I'll be really curious I don't know what the answer is but that is one of the things I'm most looking forward to finding out this weekend is what do the Bills think the best plan is for this version of the Jags offense I'm going to put who do you think wins this game?

18:23I want to put you on the spot because you know who I'm picking of course I'm picking the Jags I have to believe but I want to put you on the spot on this one because I do think this probably is like objectively the hardest game to pick in this bracket maybe the Packers Bears is pretty tough too but I think this one is insane You didn't pick it on the podcast But you picked it on the live show last night You think the Bears are going to win I do think the Bears are going to win that other game, yes Which is just terrifying to me Here's what I will say I think the Jags are a better team I think the Bills win I think that's fair I mean, they've done it before Like Josh Allen's got a playoff experience Sean McDermott does This is a very young Jags team I just I do think they're the better team And I probably default to like That simple black and white thinking a little bit too much of like, I just think they're the better team, but I just, I do.

19:11Maybe this is just me like shrinking into nothingness when it comes to thinking about the game this way. But the fact that Josh Allen is like the last one left, there is like the last vestige of just like, I think I'm just going to pick the alien quarterback. And I was going to say the better quarterback. I don't want to like, the other quarterback in this game is playing really, really good football. When it's one of the three, you can say that. It's fine. Yeah, because I think better is you're trying to indicate that like the other quarterback isn't good. Like that would be I don't even want to say one of the names.

19:44Like if if the Bills are playing against Denver, I'll say it. It's fine. Yes. If the Bills are playing against the Broncos, I think you could easily that. That's when we're like, oh, let's I'll pick the better quarterback. That's not how I want to frame what Trevor Lawrence is. I think that's why, like in this moment, I'll pick the alien quarterback doing the alien things. one last time because he's the last one that we have. That's fair. I get it. We're going to take our first quick break and then come back and chat a little Niners-Eagles.

20:15All right, Niners at Eagles. The Eagles are four and a half point favorites in this game. The Niners, it's not exactly like the Jags because obviously the Niners offense was playing better even when Mac Jones was playing. But for the first half of the year, it felt like, oh, the Niners are kind of a fun story. and they're winning a lot of games against a lot of bad teams and Mac Jones is playing pretty well and look at the job Kyle Shanahan is doing, but how scary are they really? And then Brock Purdy gets back. He doesn't look healthy and you have a game against the Cardinals where they destroy Arizona, but the quarterback doesn't play very well.

20:48You have that ugly game against Carolina. It's like, all right, are the Niners really going to get to a place where they feel like a threat in the NFC? And then you have that stretch where the offense really just starts to roll against the Colts, against the Bears, and then they get dismantled by the Seahawks. And so I think where I'm at with the Niners is, we know that the defense is just hanging on for dear life to no fault of their own. It was an incredibly young unit that was relying on two guys that needed to be superstars for it all to come together, and then they lost both superstars. The offense was going to have to carry them.

21:24And so how you feel about the Niners right now and how you feel about the Niners' chances in these playoffs comes down to, are they the team that played against the Colts and the Bears or are they closer to the team that played against the Seahawks and I I'm not sure where I land on that because the Seahawks are the best defense in the league and one of the best defenses we've seen in like several years so I don't want to diminish them too much for what that performance looked like that's the thing and like I think it being week 18 where it's the last time we saw them I think if that happened in week 17 and then we got one of the Colts or the Bears game after that I think we would probably feel a little bit differently I am like mildly worried that one of the really good defenses could give them a little bit of trouble like that again, and not to get too far ahead, but they do play one of those this week in the Eagles, and they play, it's not just that the Eagles are good, they're DNA-wise very similar to what the Seahawks do, and so I think against a lot of teams, the Niners could look closer to what they did against the Colts.

22:19This is going to be one of the games where I think it could be the other way. I asked you this about the Bills. What do you make of the Philadelphia Eagles right now? Again, the Philadelphia Eagles were favored by four and a half points to win this game.

22:34I think the offense, I almost, you know, well, you know what's weird? I almost feel very similarly to, even though they're a much more talented team and I think obviously their defense is the best unit of all these teams. I don't feel that differently than I do about them against like the Steelers, where it's like they can win one of these games, maybe even the next game if it's a great matchup. I just struggle to like really feel like this team has the juice for a round one because the offense is built through the offensive line. And it's not playing as well. And it's still a little bit banged up.

23:03And then they've had oscillations of years where if the play call is right, offense is good and they can go in or go to the Super Bowl, win the Super Bowl. And when it's not, they can't. And this year, I think, is one of those can't years. The defense is awesome, which is why I do think that they can win a game like this. I just don't know if their defense rises to the level of they can win four straight games. The way I feel about the Texans or the Seahawks or potentially even like the Broncos or something like that. I think that's fair. Let's start with when the Niners have the ball in this game because that's easily the most interesting side of the ball here.

23:33You said pretty definitively and with some confidence that you think the Eagles' defense is the best unit of the four in this game. You think the Eagles' defense is a better unit definitively than the Niners' offense. I'm not saying that's wrong. I'm just saying I was surprised to hear you say that level of conviction. I think because of the matchup, yes. I think if I'm just saying all of these four units against X average opponent, I think maybe I would pick the Niners just because obviously I love Kyle Shanahan, but I do think that like the way that the Eagles defense is built, which is very similar to the Seahawks, where it's a lot of cover six.

24:07It's a lot of these two high rotations where we're spinning a guy down. They're not really bringing a lot of extra bodies. They're doing a lot of these simulated pressures, which I think Brock Purdy at times when you get him, it's because you get him guessing on a lot of these simulated pressures and he holds onto the ball, comes back to routes a little bit late. And so I think that there is a chance that this looks, you know, they won't hold them to three points the way that the Seattle Seahawks did. If they hold them to like 18 or 20, I don't not think that that is unreasonable. And then like this Eagles offense, even for as much as I don't like watching it, like they can score 24 or 27 against this 49ers defense.

24:42So I like that to me is like how this game could play out for them. What do you think is the best path for the 49ers offense in this game against what you seem to think is like it? and rightfully so, is a very good Eagles defense that's playing some of its best ball right now. I actually think it's kind of hard to find because I do think like in the back end where I get scared for this is like, obviously some of the stuff that they do in terms of rotations and disguising coverage, I think maybe you can get Purdy once or twice. I, them closing a lot of the windows on him with how well Dejean and Mitchell are playing, that scares me, especially over the middle down the field.

25:15I do think if they can get Christian McCaffrey really working like in the underneath area, Like I don't think Zach Bond has been quite as good in space this year. I think N 'Kobe Dean is a really good when he's moving forward, when he has to like see stuff and really like, you know, take an option route out of the backfield, whatever it is, I think he struggles. And so if they can get, I don't know what the number would be, but if they can get a lot of those targets to Christian McCaffrey over the middle of the field, especially underneath, I think that is probably a good way for them to do this.

25:41Cause I still think like Bond is good when he's getting depth and playing stuff. But again, in some of those one-on-one scenarios where he's just got to go tackle a guy I think he's been a little bit worse this year the two guys that might not play in this game for the Niners on off on offense Trent Williams is still hurt still nursing that hamstring and to me not having Ricky Pearsall in this game is like massively important because against a lot of teams when you just think about matchups in the way that you can attack them the Niners offense can survive without Ricky Pierce ball and Pierce all in games where they're hitting chunk after chunk on in breakers 10 to 15 yards past the line of scrimmage that those are those throws are not going to be available to you against the Eagles.

26:19Ricky Pearsall and like some explosives outside the numbers in one-on-one situations against Adoree Jackson, like that becomes hugely important against this version of the Eagles. And so not having him, like you miss that, like they're the only real explosives they've had to receivers this year have been in this like isolated moments when Ricky Pearsall has been able to play. Juwan Jennings is a reliable target in some situations. He is not an explosive piece. And so I think that they've been able to do a really good job with the fact that Pearson hasn't played that much this year. But in this game specifically, I think you will miss him if he does not play.

26:55I think you absolutely will. And I wonder like, you know, again, Vic Fangio is not a guy who blitzes a ton. I would think about it in this game, not because it really has anything to do with Purdy or anything like that, but I would try to really do whatever you can to occupy the running back. Because if I just said like the best thing that you can do as the Niners offense, especially if Pearson is not going to play, is try to see if we can pepper McCaffrey underneath. Well, if we can hold him in pass protection two or three more times than he normally would be, I think that's probably the best way, especially, again, if those Niners don't have a guy that they really trust to win deep and outside of the numbers.

27:26And getting Jalen Carter back and getting a healthy Jalen Carter back is worth mentioning. Like, that has been hugely important for the Eagles defense looking like a different unit over the last few weeks. I mean, you look back and like what the Bears run game did to them and the fact that Jalen Carter was just like clearly not healthy in that game, getting him back and getting him back close to or at least or at 100 percent you've really noticed the difference in like what that does for the eagles defense because again vic fangio doesn't want to bring extra bodies and so if you just have jalen carter who can nuke stuff all by himself and i do think that this you know 49ers interior is obviously pretty gettable um and the left tackle might be gettable if trent williams doesn't play in this game i do think them being able to get home with four even if it's some of these simulators where we can occupy the back that's that's going to be how you win this game let's get to the other side of the ball you mentioned it the Eagles, even with their relative struggles, should in theory be able to move the ball against this version of the Niners defense.

28:21If you look at what the Eagles offense has been over the back half of the season, the games where they have been productive offensively, Washington and the Raiders, it's really it. And so when they've played bad defenses, they have been able to find some answers. And unfortunately, the Niners coming into the playoffs are an unambiguously bad defense. Because that's the thing, right, is when you watch the Eagles offense for most of the year, it's like, OK, the talent is great. And it's whenever they face like an average or or better defense than that, it's like, man, they just can't out scheme anybody and they're just not helping any of their players.

28:55But then, yeah, when you face some of these bad defenses, the Washington's, the Las Vegas is whoever it is. Well, even if we can't scheme guys open, you don't really have to do a whole lot of help for A.J. Brown or even I know the run game has been success rate wise, not as good as you want it to be. I think if you chip away at this 49ers front, especially with just how insanely banged up that they are, you're going to get two or three explosive Saquon Barkley runs. So I really do just think... That's what the Seahawks got. I mean, think about what the Seahawks were able to do. Like if the Seahawks can do it, you can do it as the Eagles.

29:24Again, even if you are a diminished version of yourself. So I really do think that this, if they just try to control the ball, they are just too talented, I think, to not come out of this okay. Sounds like Lane Johnson is going to play in this game, which again, if you, that was my concern about the Niners even a month ago when we watched that game they played against the Titans. I was like, when we get into the playoffs, any, almost any one of the teams they play outside of maybe the Bears and now the Packers without Micah Parsons, but the Rams, the Seahawks and the Eagles in the NFC playoff field are going to be better up front on both sides of the ball than the Niners are.

30:01And that's where we've arrived. like we were at a point where the Niners are worse up front on offense and defense against this Eagles team and it's a simplistic way of seeing things but like it's hard to win games when that's the case it's incredibly hard to win games especially if like we just mentioned if Rick you could I could sell myself on the world where the Niners have to throw the ball a ton and if Ricky Pearsall is out there they could win the game that way if he's not going to be out there and you kind of do need your offensive line to help you out a little bit more both in the run game and the pass game it's it's hard to imagine they're going to be able to do that What do you think outside of the run game?

30:34What do you think like the pathways are for the Eagles passing game that has been incredibly frustrating for most of the year? Honestly, I really struggled to figure out what I wanted to do with the Eagles passing game, because I really think that they've struggled to tap into a whole lot of anything this year, because I think in previous years, a lot of their favorite stuff has been like, we're going to throw a bunch of sail routes to Dallas Goddard. And that's really not something that they've done this year. I will say some of their best moments this year have been a lot of their shorter stuff, where there's some of the short RPOs, especially like the slide routes.

31:06And I would want to tap into that a little bit because I do think the Niners DBs are ferocious. And I like the way that they play. A lot of them are pretty small. And I do think that there's like a high percentage chance that Dallas Goddard can just like bounce off of a guy and go pick up five or six more extra yards and they can move the ball consistently that way. So I would probably try to tap into that and keep it as like low volume a game as we can beyond 10 air yards outside of like pure go balls. If you want to throw a few of those, that's fine. Speaking of low volume plays outside of 10 air yards, let's get into the Chargers at the Patriots.

31:41Patriots are three and a half point favorites in this game at home against the Chargers. This Patriots season has been the best case scenario. And even that feels like it's underselling it. Like it has been everything you could have wanted and so, so much more. If you're a Patriots fan, you hire Mike Vrabel. The entire point of this is to bring like some stability and some validity back to the organization. You immediately have gotten it. And even if you were high on what Drake may could be in year two, the idea that he was going to be that next guy that would be an MVP level player in his second season.

32:23what percentile outcome is that it's like 99th and that's what happened even as like a humongous drake may supporter i was like i hope he gets here by the end of the rookie contract like that that to me was like the the rosy outlook the fact that he in year two pretty comfortably feels like that guy is is insane to me and we've talked about it a number of times before it's everything it's the decision making the accuracy in spite of him throwing the ball down the field all the time like he is accurate to every single level of the field like he's just he's been incredible for them. The Patriots are the number two seed in the AFC.

32:56They've won what? 13 games? 13. They won 13 games. The biggest question about New England is going to be how much of that is a product of the teams that they have played. The Patriots just haven't really beaten that many complete teams over the course of this season. What's the best win on the Patriots schedule? Outside of the first Buffalo game, I was going to instinctively say the Bucs game, but even the Bucs game doesn't really feel like it's that impressive at this point. The Bucs were already cratering by the time they played. That was like the beginning of the cratering for the Bucs was in early November.

33:28We can put that on Drake Mays' MVP resume that he started to ruin the Bucs. Other than that, it's like, I mean, and see, I was going to say the Ravens too, but it's not like the Ravens. Lamar got hurt in the first quarter. Yeah, exactly. Like they really don't have a super impressive win on this other than that first Bills game. And I don't mean, I don't say that to mean like they're fraudulent. No, because they did dominate most of the other teams that they played. Like the bad teams, they beat the hell out of them. All you can do is play the teams on your schedule and beat the shit out of them if you're a good team.

33:58And that's exactly what the Patriots have done. I say that only meaning like, do we really have a sense of how good the Patriots are based on the teams that they have played this year? I think it's hard to say yes or no. I think it's incredibly hard to say yes or no. And I like, honestly, with the offense, I can at least feel like it's some amount of real because Drake May is awesome. With the defense, I do think it is tougher because they played like an incredibly easy schedule of quarterbacks. I think when you watch them, you can feel a lot of the issues that they have. No Milton Williams has been like a big issue for them.

34:26Like they the defense is the one where it's like if they and maybe it won't happen in this game because the Chargers offense has all its flaws. But like if they lose a game at some point in the AFC playoffs because someone just scores 38 on them, even a team like the Broncos, where I think the offense can be up and down. I don't think that that would be that surprising to me. on the Chargers side of this, I was thinking about this this morning, just like how frustrated I would be as a Chargers fan. Not how frustrated, but like where I would land on this current situation if I were a Chargers fan.

34:55Because I think there's part of me that would look at how bad the offensive line has been this year and how much it's torpedoed the offense and say, okay, next season, get Rashawn Slater back. You get Joe Walt back. Which, that's been part of the problem. Like the interior being so bad with the guys you picked and the pass protection plan and just how teams have picked on them. This goes beyond tackle injuries for what the Chargers pass protection has been. But you assume it's going to be better with the tackles back next year. Justin Herbert is playing really, really, really good football. The video I did this week on the YouTube channel is about Justin Herbert and just like some of the things he's had to overcome this season.

35:34He's playing at an insanely high level, even if a lot of the traditional numbers may not indicate that because of what he's had to overcome with the pass protection. So you have this incredible quarterback. Your pass protection is going to get better next year. And the defense still is a unit that they're 31st in defensive spending, and they are definitively a top 10 unit. And so what you're building on that side of the ball, it's like, okay, this has been a frustrating year, but it's hard not to be excited about where the organization is overall. At the same time, there's a chance Jesse Minter is gone at the end of this season and that the schematic advantages that you've been given on that side of the ball are never going to be as good as they've been over the last couple of years, even if the talent gets better.

36:16And so is this a wasted opportunity this season for the Chargers based on so many things lining up for them? Or is there still so much good stuff from the first two years of the Jim Harbaugh era that you think, eh, the offensive line's not good enough, but there will be a moment where we get there. I don't know which one I land on. I don't know which one either. I think I really would have to think about that a lot. And I think a lot of the time I would have to spend there is like trying to divorce or trying to separate how good do I think the players on the Chargers defense are for whoever steps into the job next and how much of this was Jesse Minter.

36:53I think that's the hardest part of it. Right. I think that they are still, there is talent acquisition, I think, that needs to happen for the Chargers over the next couple of years either way. Right. Like, yeah, when you're 31st in defensive spending, and that was my complaint coming in. I was like, they need to pay for one defensive superstar. and they didn't and I get it like you're still what they want 11 they want 11 games without having done that like I get it back is where that defensive superstar would be coming from in a free agency right I especially this year I forget who I would have said it would have been last year but like still I would have wanted a little bit more punch for this but they still ended up an incredibly good defense and even if whoever the next defensive coordinator that they hire is good it's year one of a system and usually that stuff takes a little bit of a ramp up time and even for as good as Jesse Minter was last year that defense still had some holes that I think that you could pick on and teams really did a good job of attacking them down the field and that's something that they patched up this year which is just like I think them having to go through that next year even if the next guy is good that that could be what limits their ceiling a little bit next time let's start when the Chargers have the ball in this game I obviously like this is going to come down to how you protect the quarterback because when he has been protected he has played incredible football when he hasn't been protected we have seen the downside cases and just how almost like non-functional the offense has been at times.

38:06And I think the biggest question about this game on that side of the ball is, is the Patriots front the type of unit that can turn the Chargers into that like non-functional version of itself? Like, can they be, are they good enough to completely take advantage of what the Chargers are along the offensive line? And I don't know if they are necessarily. I think purely on talent, probably not. especially without Millie Williams like some of the other guys are having nice seasons for like what the team paid for them and stuff like that but it's not a whole lot of other needle movers what I will say is that kind of like you mentioned earlier that the Chargers pass protection plans in a lot of these games have been terrible I mean the Eagles game is like the the most egregious one that they had where it was just free rushers in the a gap all the time I do think that New England especially lately over the past you know six weeks or so they don't blitz a ton like it's not like a Brian Flores defense, but they'll do it about a quarter of the time.

39:03And when they do, they bring some really weird shit, man. Like they, they, they just like who they're dropping, where they're lining guys up before the snap. I do think it is really funky and they, it's one of those, like, some of it is kind of structurally unsound and like kind of crazy, but they're, I think they have to play like that way. Like they'll play a lot of what I've heard called like hot coverage where it's like three deep two under where like you really are bringing six guys. It's a bunch of like funky drops and stuff like that. And so So I think if they can do that and really force these guys to pick some stuff up, I think that's where you can get them.

39:35Because I do think, like again, Herbert I think has some good moments there, but if you get five, six, seven free rushers over the course of the game, eventually he's going to go down or try to give you one. Yeah, I don't have a good feel for it. I legitimately don't know. Because when we have, I guess it's a question of like, the Patriots defense has not played against that many good offenses over the course of the year. It's the same question about the team overall. And so like when the Chargers played against what the Chargers looked like against the Cowboys, right? Like when you have those units where the Cowboys are obviously the worst defense in the league, the Patriots are not that, but is it going to be closer to that version of things?

40:16Or is it going to be closer to what we saw against the Eagles, what we saw against the Texans when it felt like the offense could barely operate. And so if we get something closer to what they look like against lower tier defenses, I do think that the Chargers defense is good enough in this game where it's going to keep them in it. I actually agree. And honestly, the one thing that for the Chargers offense that if they can somehow keep some of this stuff protected, the one thing that I want to see from them schematically, a lot of deep overroutes because I do think that the super deep overroutes are they're very simple right it's just like can can my guy outrun the corner but one corners hate running with that because it's really really difficult but two there's only so many quarterbacks in the NFL who can actually make those like 40 yard deep overthrows down the field the Chargers got one of them and one of the few things that the Buffalo Bills did really really well against this New England Patriots defense in both of the matchups they played was a lot of those deep overroutes like Brandon Cooks dropped one really early in the last game that they played and they were able to hit some of those.

41:18So I do think tapping into that with a similarly talented quarterback is probably something you should be doing. The other side of the ball is by far the more compelling side of the ball in this game to me. It's the Patriots offense and the potential MVP quarterback going against the defense that I really think has just done so much good stuff this year. And there are a couple different things that jump out here when it comes to how you have to get after the Chargers and whether the Patriots are capable of doing that. They have a, the Patriots this year have a bottom seven rushing success rate against neutral and heavy boxes.

41:51But they're above average, slightly above average against light boxes on defense. And so we know how the Chargers want to play. And so if you are the Patriots, can you consistently run the ball into those sorts of looks? Because against this Chargers team, you almost have to. Like that has to be a component to a successful game against the Chargers based on how they want to play defensively. And I think, too, to me, it's not just getting some of the consistent games where you can stay in second and fours and maybe Minter doesn't get to throw a lot of his pressures and stuff. Some of the worst moments that I can remember just off the top of my head for this Chargers defense this year are at the second or third level, a safety takes a bad angle or he's late fitting in the alley or he just, or some DB just straight up misses a tackle.

42:33I do worry about that against like a guy like Travion Henderson. Like he can make you miss or like, honestly, Ramondre Stevenson, if he's healthy, like can just run over people when he's playing well. So I just, there is a chance that talent wise, the Patriots backs could really make some plays against the back four, back five, whether or not that they can get to the second or third level enough times, you know, we'll see. In terms of throwing the ball in this game, you mentioned some of the pressure stuff. The Chargers don't blitz a ton, but we talked about this on our season long award show.

43:01I think that some of the third down plans the Chargers have had this year with some of the mugged up looks that they're giving you and the fact that sometimes it is a cover zero. Sometimes they're dropping out both defensive tackles. Like there's a lot of funky pressure plans from the Chargers this year and they've been really effective when they've done it. The Chargers this season have the second highest pressure rate in the league when bringing five or more per next gen. They don't blitz a lot, but when they do, they're effective. And May has faced the fourth most unblocked pressures in the NFL this year.

43:32And so that element of it, when we get to those third downs, I do think that that's something that potentially and probably favors the Chargers. And then the aspect of this game that is most interesting to me is that the Patriots have thrown the ball down the field as well as any team in the entire NFL. Like that's what they want to do. The Chargers this season are the only team in the league to allow a negative EPA on passes of 10 plus air yards. 10? 10. Not 20, not 25, not only deep throws, 10. Yeah, because like 20 or 25, it could be like, oh well that's a small sample maybe you you know get a couple of picks played some bad quarterbacks whatever it is a 10 plus is like that's a pretty meaty sample and so the reason that there there's only one team in the negatives there is when you're doing epa per drop back on 10 plus area throws it removes sacks and so you're taking away the entire an entire bucket of negative plays the league average defensively in epa allowed on on 10 plus area throws is 0.35 drake may the potential MVP is at 0.27 for the season.

44:38The Chargers are in the negatives. That's how good they have been on any throws down the field whatsoever over the course of this season. Which is crazy because that was their Achilles heel last year was the really good quarterbacks. Like I remember Joe Burrow had a game like this. I think Lamar Jackson maybe had a game like this where the good teams and good Baker Mayfield, I think had a game against them like this. The good teams and offenses could throw it over their head. And that has really not been something that they've allowed this season, which I do think has been an incredible point of growth for them.

45:07You compare that to what they do on shorter throws. The Chargers have a below average pass defense success rate on throws between zero and 10 air yards this year. And so that to me is going to be the question with the Patriots. Can you methodically move the ball down the field? Can you run the ball consistently? And are you willing to just bite it off in small chunks over the course of this game because you're playing against a defense where all they want to do is take that away from you? And so if the Patriots don't get bored with that sort of stuff, I do think that's probably their best path on offense.

45:37Which I do think is interesting because May has been, obviously when you're the MVP, that your success rates are going to be pretty high. But they, when I, I think part of the success rates thing is like, yeah, you're playing some middling defenses and all that jazz. I do think May, for as good as he is, lives in the volatility sometimes. Like he's great, still takes a lot of sacks, and he's still willing to hold on to the ball and do some of that stuff. It's just that on the other end, you know that you're getting a lot of the deep throws, a lot of the plays outside of the pocket. If they can limit him to only like, you know, maybe two or three nice scrambles and then not really giving him half as many of the deep throws that he gets, it's like, okay, we're making him play a very different game than he's ever played.

46:16If you look at their schedule this year, the only team that is even really sort of close in terms of structure and like a half functional defense is the New Orleans game. They played in like week five or six and Drake may threw it over their heads pretty comfortably. And so again, much, much better as we got a little bit longer. That's the other thing. They're better now than they were at the time. But even if I'm just trying to find like, okay, who is a little bit similar that they played? And again, in that game, they were throwing over their heads. You can't really do that against the Chargers.

46:44Like it's just, it's a very, very different test for him, which I think I'm incredibly excited to watch just as someone who is invested in his development. Yeah, absolutely. I'm very much looking forward to that matchup specifically. I think it's one of my favorite ones in the entire weekend. Before we move on, let's take one more quick break.

47:05Let's get to our last one here. Texans at Steelers. Texans are three-point favorites on the road in Pittsburgh. Texans are yet another one of those teams that won double-digit games and feels like a potential threat in the playoffs that it felt like their season was over. That Monday night game against the Seahawks comes on the heels of them starting 0-3. It felt like they were completely dead in the water. now they feel like as good a bet as any in like a very crowded AFC playoff field, which is kind of a crazy place to have reached. I'm not sure. The Jags at least like, all right, it's year one of a new regime.

47:42Like the level of volatility that comes with that, like them coming out of the buy and looking at a completely different team, like fine. I know the Texans have a new offensive play caller, but I'm not sure there's any better representation of how weird this season is. than the Houston Texans that we watched a month into the year, five weeks into the year are now in a place where, oh yeah, they could win two playoff games. No, because even for as great as we all knew the defense was, even when they were losing games, the idea that a team could start 0-3 and have a kind of not functional offense, that's dead in the water for almost anybody.

48:20You just don't really recover from that. And so the fact that they have in, again, not just like scraped into the playoffs, and it's like, ah, they're going to get knocked out immediately. It's not like we feel about them like we feel about the Panthers or anything like that. Like, I not only can I... There are three-point favorites on the road. That says a lot about the Steelers. Right, but not only do I feel like the Texans can win this game, it's like, if you told me they hold every opponent to less than 20 and they go and get to the Super Bowl, it's like, I can see that world pretty comfortably with how good this defense is.

48:48The Steelers side of this, I'll say this, the Steelers offense has made enough plays over the back half of the season. and they made enough plays against the Ravens last week. Obviously, they hit several explosives against the Lions in that game. I still am at a place where I think the Steelers offense is too limited for them to be one of those teams where it's like, oh, I could see them winning multiple playoff games. That's just hard for me to imagine based on the overall limitations they have on that side of the ball, even with DK Metcalf back. Where I can start talking myself into the Steelers a little bit, especially in this game, is that I feel like what they're doing defensively right now on a bunch of different fronts is it's headed in the exact opposite direction it typically is for the Steelers at this point in the season.

49:35Like usually by the time we get to January and we get to the first round of the playoffs, it feels like the Steelers defense is in a position where teams are just going to run all over them. We've seen that happen so many different times. It's a very simplistic defense. It's a defense that you can pick on. They feel outmanned by playoff caliber teams when we get to the postseason. When I watched the Steelers' defense over the last month, the way the front is playing, top to bottom. And obviously it's the guys that you know about, right? Like Cam Hayward had an incredible game against the Ravens.

50:05He's playing at a really, really high level. Alex Highsmith has had a really nice season. What Nick Herbig is giving them is like, the way they use him as like a weird spinner in that Ravens game. And Keanu Benton is playing so much better than he was early in the year. I was ready to give up after like the first month. He was not playing well at all for the first month. And now he's playing like the guy that we thought he could be when we got excited about him. You throw Derek Harmon into the mix. Like, I just think the front is playing so well. And so from a talent perspective, you're seeing that.

50:32The DBs, I feel like that they've stumbled into have played really well. Like, James Pierre has played such good football for this team this season. Joey Porter Jr. is playing well. And so I think talent-wise, top to bottom, I feel better about the state of the Steelers defense that I have over the last couple years. and I just think they're doing more interesting stuff on that side of the ball. Like some of the simulated pressures that we're seeing from them, the unblocked pressures that they're creating, some of the variety on the back end that they're trotting out when it used to be like a pretty streamlined, simple defense.

51:03I just feel like the combination of talent and deployment with the Steelers defense, I feel so, so much better about that right now than I have in January in several years. And I think in this game specifically, it gives them like a very real shot to win. It doesn't. It's funny that they've arrived there because it doesn't really feel like they arrived there naturally. Like it's because like TJ Watt misses a little bit of time. So we got to start doing some weird stuff with our front. And then even in the back end, they had a lot of different injuries there where they're moving guys out. Who's in the nickel?

51:34Who's playing safety? And I think that they finally like figured out what they want to do with Jalen Ramsey. And I think being honestly, even just being more comfortable, just like leaving Joey Porter to his own devices. He is one of the like, there are not that many corners in the league where I do feel comfortable. just like leaving him on your best guy. Don't think about it. Joey Porter is like one of those four or five guys. Like he's really, really damn good. And so in this game specifically, like him versus Collins is going to be really cool. And I think when the Texans have the ball in this game, we can just dig into it.

51:59Can the Steelers front win this game? To me becomes the most important question. Because you've said that pretty much every time that we've talked about the Steelers. I think in this game they can. Like the Texans offensive line is mildly better than it was at the start of the season. It is still not good enough to where I would pick them over this Steelers defensive line. I think they've made real strides. I still think it's an offensive line that a good front can pick on. Exactly. When you are a team that is the caliber of the Steelers, I do think that you can pick on them. And so I struggle to see, especially if like, I think that CJ Stroud is a really good quarterback.

52:33I still think he's had a lot of good moments this year, especially like I think people were, both of us included after that Seattle game, a little bit ready to be like, okay, this year is a little bit shocked. I do think that there are still moments this year that because he's getting heated up a lot, he'll give you like, he'll get to the top of his drop. He'll have something predetermined and he'll try to give you one. And with the way that the Steelers are like mixing stuff up right now, I do think that there's a chance that he gives you two or three opportunities. That to me becomes the most interesting question on this side of the ball.

53:00I think the Steelers, I think the Texans are going to have a hard time running the ball in this game because the Texans have had a hard time running the ball in a lot of games. And I think the Steelers, again, their front and their run defense, period, is playing much better. What they do on the back end to me becomes the most important question when the Texans have the ball. The Steelers still play a lot of man coverage. In this game specifically, I think it's something I'd probably go away from because the Texans are top five, Stroud is, in e-paper drop back against man coverage this year. And that's where they find a lot of their explosives.

53:29And I think those plays you're talking about where he can give you one, I want to change the picture on the back end. Like, I want to be doing that as often as possible if I'm the Steelers in this game. And it's because if you're playing man coverage and maybe even bringing extra bodies or whatever it is, one, it kind of eliminates CJ Stroud really having to read anything. It's a lot of like, okay, I've got two skyscrapers on the outside with like Jaden Higgins and Nico Collins. I can just pick whoever I want and throw one. And then as I've talked about, well, I've been man coverage a lot before.

53:56It is a lot of, can you just place the ball where you need to and add touch? CJ Stroud is phenomenal at that. Like if he knows where the ball is going, the touch that he can put on a lot of these throws is really impressive. Whereas I think sometimes against the zone stuff, like he has good velocity, but it's not quite the same as some of the guys like Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence when they just get to the top and they rip it. And so I do think making him get to the top of his drop, read stuff out. It's not that he can't do it. It's that knowing that he's going to get heated up. Sometimes he just doesn't want to do it and he wants the ball to be out.

54:25And I think when it's zone coverage versus man coverage, that's where you get guys getting hands on the ball. I think you've said that you told us, said this to me earlier today, but Joey Porter Jr. against Nico Collins is, I can't wait. It's like one of the cooler, are like one-on-one matchups of the entire weekend. Yeah, that is truly like a big man versus big man. We're both going to be physical. We're going to try to dunk on each other. Let's see how this goes. And we know that Nico Collins can do it. We know that Joey Porter Jr. is one of the best like man-on-man coverage corners in the league.

54:53So that matchup could decide the game in the 10 or so instances the Steelers try that. Here's the problem. Even if the Steelers defense is able to muck up this game a little bit, do we have any faith that the Steelers offense is going to be able to do anything of consequence against the Texans defense. Maybe DK Metcalf has the game of his life. Other than that, I really don't know how I'm supposed to see it. Because I think the argument you would maybe want to make in terms of the way that the Steelers have run the ball well against certain teams at points in this season. But if you look at since week 10, the Texans have a 68.9 % defensive rushing success rate.

55:33It's the best in the league by 3%. I have a feeling they're going to be able to get into the backfield against the Steelers offense. And then when we think about what the identity of the Steelers offense is, it's a lot of the short throws. It's Rodgers is throwing bubbles. He's throwing flat routes. He's throwing bullet slants, whatever it is. And so I went and looked at how often our team's throwing five yards or shorter. The Steelers do it 60.4 % of the time, which is second only to Denver, which is not surprising when you watch the way that they play. And I think when we watch the Texans defense, you feel anecdotally like, oh, well, they're good at stopping that.

56:03But then you look at some of the numbers. 4.2 yards allowed per drop back on those throws. Best in the NFL. 65.4 % success rate. Best in the NFL. One of the only three teams above 60 % with the Bills and the Broncos. 3.31 yards after the catch allowed on those. Best in the NFL. They swarm. They hit you. They don't give you anything easy. I have a hard time seeing how they move the ball in this game. I unfortunately land in a pretty similar place. Again, you think about all those flat routes, all those instances and trying to get rid of the ball as quickly as possible and get the ball out in space this Texans defense they destroy space they swallow it up as well as anybody does and so I think if they can't get a little bit going on the ground maybe like you know a couple of those seam shots to Fryer Muth like pick and trying to get something happening in the middle of the defense but it's just hard for me to imagine what the path is for the Steelers offense in this game because again like I think in a lot of other games you can be like oh well maybe they throw a couple to DK Metcalf.

57:03This is the best corner duo in the NFL right now. Like it's, you're probably not going to get this. Over under 39 and a half in this game, which honestly feels a little high. Kind of. It's honestly higher than I thought it was going to be. Because when I think about this game, I'm imagining like, it's like, yeah, 20 to 13. Like that's kind of how I imagined this. I was 20 to 17 is where I was put in. 17 might be too many touchdowns. It might. Yeah. It might. It might be a 17, 13 sort of game. It does feel like we might be what we might be looking at here. All right. That is all we've got for today.

57:35If you have not listened to part one of our wild card preview, that is available in your feeds right now. And we will be back on Saturday night, breaking down both the Panthers Rams game and the Packers Bears game live on YouTube. Those shows will be available in your podcast feed. So if you cannot catch them live, do not worry. That will be to you wherever you get your podcasts on Sunday morning for now. That's all we got. Appreciate you guys listening. We'll talk to you soon.