3️⃣ “AI Bubble Wrap” — Our Warren Buffett stock pick. Cali’s Billionaire Tax. Jollibee’s spaghetti IPO. +Unhappy Hour

0:28This is Nick. Pretty good. Jack, what do we got on today's show? For our first story, it's the biggest tech drama right now. It's the first ever billionaire tax being debated in California. And besties, the billionaire group chat is blowing up right now. One second, Jack. Zuck? Yeah? I know, dude. I know. I think you just insinuated that you're a billionaire. I can't talk about it on the pod, Jack. For our second story, it's Jolly B. The famous Filipino fast food chain announced plans to IPO here in the U.S. Trade war, shmade war. Asia wants to take a bite out of the United States. And our third and final story.

1:04For the third day in a row, we're doing our portfolio resolutions. Our three stock picks for the new year. And our third and final stock pick for 2026, it's bubble wrap for your portfolio. In case there's an AI bubble. The bubble pops. This stock will protect you. You'll want bubble wrap. You gotta have bubble wrap. But best is before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. What a mix of stories to go into the weekend with. Love the mix, Jack. Hoarder's Almanac, week 302. That's right. things we're running out in this economy, Jack and I are still keeping track for you. This week, we're running out of happy hour.

1:36Happy hour. The 4 p.m. beer with your boss, the Cosmo with your co-workers. Yeah, get a little buzzed with Becky from Biz Dev. Get this. Since the pandemic, the happy hour, never been the same. It's become a casualty of the corporate culture reset post-pandemic and the data proves it. Because more of you are working from home. And fewer of you are drinking alcohol. And if you do pop champagne, it's with your Wednesday night run club. And it's too bad for junior employees. I loved corporate happy hour when I was in my 20s. Oh, and you know what the deal is today, Jack? It's the Zoom happy hour.

2:07The worst variety of forced fun. But according to the Wall Street Journal, over in Europe, happy hour has never been happier. That's right. The pubs and the pints, possible. They're still core to London's corporate culture. So besties, it's Friday the Real Friday. We suggest you invite your VP out for a pint after work. Could be non-alcoholic if you prefer. Happy hour. It's how I met your mentor. Nick, my advice, take a risk during happy hour. Don't do something inappropriate, but tell that story even if it's a little risque. Your boss is going to like you more because of it. Thank you for sprinkling on that context, Jack.

2:40Is this magnum of Rosé a write-off? It is at happy hour. Jack, let's hit our three stories. Fifteen years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in a dorm that had an idea that caused a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is the norm. Jack Nick. That's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50%, that's a fat tip. T-Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, cause we ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show.

3:10Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor. Thank you. Head to your nearest Warby Parker store or visit WarbyParker.com today. That's WarbyParker.com. A password manager should be the first security purchase you make for your team. Why? Because compromised passwords are the number one way bad actors attack companies, and small businesses are their favorite targets. But unlike a lot of security challenges, passwords actually have a pretty simple solution. One password lets you manage all your business's credentials, so you can feel confident that your data stays secure as your company grows.

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4:42we will explain the drama. Yetis, as Jack and I once saw in a highly emotional Instagram post about Teddy Roosevelt, comparison is the thief of joy. That's the quote. If that's true, Nick, then the Forbes billionaire list is the thief of the century. Get this, Yetis. In the United States, we have over 2 ,000 billionaires, according to JP Morgan. People, you know, who's, how would you describe them, Jack? People whose third homes have second boats. Yeah, just put it by the heliport. Yetis, get this wild stat. The 19 wealthiest families in the United States own nearly as much assets as the bottom half of the American population.

5:19Now, to sprinkle on some context, back in 1982, this group of the uber-wealthy owned 0.1 % of the nation's net worth. But where is it now, Jack? Now, the 19 richest families own 2 % of America's net worth. Which brings us to present day, when 250 of those billionaires currently live in California, the most of any U.S. state. There's literally a block in San Francisco known as Billionaire Block. Yeah. Because like Jensen Huang, the Jobs family, who else lives on this block? Larry Ellison. I mean, you walk by it, it's Broadway and Lion Street. The houses, chef's kiss. It's good watching. They're all tech CEOs with billions and billions of dollars.

5:57But here's the news. Because of a new ballot initiative, voters in the Golden State may soon have a yes or no vote on an unprecedented wealth tax targeting those billionaires this November. Yeti, to sprinkle on some context, in California, there's this wild democracy situation. Just call it crazy. Just call it crazy. I tell my family in New York they don't even believe this is real. Because of ballot initiatives, even the most wild ideas, if you collect enough signatures, can end up on the state ballot for all like 50 million Californians to vote on. One labor union is fighting really hard right now to get a 5 % one-time wealth tax on the ballot for the elections this November.

6:37Basically one huge one-off payday for the California coffers. It's called the Billionaire Tax Act, and billionaires are freaking out about it. Now, this law, if passed, would require California residents worth$1 million, sorry,$1 billion or more to pay 5 % of their net worth as a tax over the course of five years. And as Jack and I dove in T-boy style, we discover two reasons why this is controversial. First, it would be the first such wealth tax in the United States. And second, it would be applied retroactively. That's the interesting detail here. New taxes typically take effect after they're actually passed.

7:14But this one would impact any resident of California who's a billionaire as of the start of this year, as in last week. Which is why we're also checking the real estate listings from the last week. Check out the Wall Street Journal. They're going nuts about this. Google's founder, Larry Page, and the crypto and AI czar in the White House, David Sachs, They both moved their money out of the state just before New Year's because their accountants told them about this law that could pass this year. I'm sorry, breaking news as we were recording the show, a new report that Larry Page actually bought two Miami properties at the end of last year for$175 million.

7:51Now, because this wealth tax is so unprecedented, let's sprinkle on a little more context. That's right, Jack. Besides property taxes on real estate, America pretty much has no wealth tax. We do income and sales taxes instead. And we write traffic tickets. Which is why the governor of California, Gavin Newsom, opposes this wealth tax. He says it would cause billionaires to jump into their private jets and move to Texas or Florida. While on the other hand, the congressman who represents Silicon Valley, Ro Khanna, actually supports this bill. And NVIDIA's CEO, Jensen Wong, a proud California resident, said this week, if the law passes, he'll comply with it.

8:25He doesn't mind. Or as Jensen would say, I don't give a chip. True. Now the big question that everyone's going to be wondering, This wealth tax will raise$100 billion in the short term if passed. But will the state of California lose tax revenue from billionaires leaving in the long term? We don't know because no wealth tax like this has passed in any state. But that's the big debate you can have at your brunch table this weekend. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over in California? The reason income taxes don't work for billionaires is that billionaires don't have income. Yetis, in the middle of the 20th century, America became the envy of the world because of our income tax being deducted from paychecks.

9:05People hate writing checks to pay taxes, but there's much less drama if the money is invisibly taken from your pay stub. That was the revelation. But America's billionaires, they don't have pay stubs. Instead, they own stock. And their stock is only taxed with a capital gains tax if it's sold. But get this, America's billionaires mostly never sell their stock. They can borrow money off of their wealth instead. That's their core strategy to avoid ever paying an income tax. Their other strategy, if they do sell, they move to Texas or Florida first. They don't have to pay the California tax on the stock gains.

9:39Looking at you, Jeff Bezos. So one reason America's inequality is so big is because billionaires don't have income. They have stock instead. This California wealth tax bill tries to address this fundamental issue, but it could actually end up hurting the state in the long run if all the billionaires leave. Add it all up, and in our opinion, if you're trying to use the tax system to solve inequality, a federal wealth tax or a federal inheritance tax, that would be more of an effective idea. We're curious what you think. Leave us a comment right now. Drop it in the comments. For our second story, Jollibee, the viral Filipino fast food chain, plans to IPO in America.

10:17It's another sign that despite the trade war, Asia wants in on the United States. It's a tsunami. But Jack, let's start by sprinkling on some context. The Philippines, fascinating country. Let's give the shout out that's due. Philippines, spelled with a PH, but Filipino spelled with an F. Former Spanish colony, former US colony, then became a democracy. Also, surprisingly, majority Catholic. And it's also the texting capital of the world. That's right. They were early adopters to SMS. Yeah, the most texts per capita on earth. The Philippines, they invented karaoke. They invented the yo-yo. They invented Christmas in July, if you know, you know.

10:53I don't know. Is that a Jimmy Buffett thing? I think Jimmy Buffett copied the Philippines, Jack. But the biggest export from the Philippines is actually Jollibee fast food. Now, there are only 80 locations in the United States so far, so you might not know Jollibee yet, but you should. By the time this podcast is done, you're going to be craving peach mango pie. Jollibee is mostly known for their fried chicken, but they also have a dish on the menu that is spaghetti with hot dog sauce. That's the early American influence from a couple hundred years ago. Jollibee's other American influence is that they're already on the stock market, on the Filipino stock exchange.

11:28And Jollibee just announced plans to split their international business into a separate company and list it on an American stock exchange. So Nick and I jumped in T-boy style to the Filipino financial statements. And this is the most diversified foos business in the world. This is what we find fascinating. Well, we'll get to what we find fascinating in a second. You see, Jollibee's 80 locations in the U.S., they're mostly in California. The strategy is to follow the Filipino diaspora. And while they're doing that, they're making five billion bucks in revenue a year, which, Jack, could you sprinkle on some salty context, please?

11:59Bigger than Burger King. The business model, by the way, is basically McDonald's and Starbucks and Disney combined. Because you come for the food, you stay for the drinks, and then you hire their mascot for your wedding. Let's start with the food. They did not adapt the menu for American tastes, like some fast food chains do internationally. This is just straight up Filipino fast food. Bold strategy, Cotton. Basically, they optimize the fried chicken for rice so that they're differentiated from Popeyes, KFC, and Chick-fil-A. And Jollibee's parent actually owns 19 different restaurant brands, including Smashburger.

12:33That's Jollibee. Oh, and if you're in California, Coffee Bean and Tea Leaf, that's them as well. Jollibee bought the brand five years ago. All in all, Jollibee owns 10 ,000 restaurant locations globally, but 45 % of the revenues are actually beverages. Those Filipino frappuccinos, total profit puppies. All right, so that's the McDonald's meets Starbucks, but here's the Disney part. One revenue stream, unlike any American fast food, you can book the mascot, Disney World style. Birthdays, weddings, sweet 16s, you can hire the Jollibee bee on site for your next occasion. Jack, early March, you better have your door unlocked.

13:09We're coming, baby. I looked at the mascot. Very much Ronald McDonald, but make it a bumblebee. He said Ronald won't show up to your birthday. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Jollibee? Despite the trade war, a tsunami of Asian companies are headed to the US. Yetis. Last year, China's Luckin Coffee entered America. They even sponsored an NBA basketball team. Korean beauty brands are the top sellers at Sephora right now. Mishu, the bubble tea that IPO'd in Hong Kong last year. They just opened their first store in California. In fact, a record number of Chinese brands applied to go public in America last year.

13:44I guess they were undeterred by Trump's politics. Jack and I were talking about it reminds us of the Japanese wave of investment that came to America in the 1980s, before we were born. Back then it was Honda, Toyota, Sony. Today, it's the brands we just mentioned. Interestingly, these are not Asian exports, so tariffs don't impact them at all. No, they're not exports. They're investments in the U.S. by Asian companies, which is a more obvious win-win. So besties, we will cover Jollibee's American IPO if it happens, the next wave in the Asian stock tsunami. Now a quick word from our sponsor. Top hats, baseball hats, Von Dutch hats.

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15:21Hey, this is Paige from Giggly Squad. And you guys, it's here. McDonald's Big Arch Burger. The new Big Arch is here and it's the most McDonald's McDonald's burger yet. It has two quarter pound patties, three slices of cheese, tangy Big Arch sauce, lettuce, pickles, crispy and slivered onions, and a poppy and sesame seed bun. It's everything you love about McDonald's burgers between two buns. The Big Arch sauce is tangy, creamy, and it's the perfect pair to the Big Arch Burger. Go grab a Big Arch Burger today, but warning, you're going to need both hands to hold it. At participating McDonald's for a limited time while supplies last.

16:05For our third and final story, it's our third and final stock pick of 2026, Berkshire Hathaway. Because everyone needs a stock market hedge. We call it AI Bubble Bubble Wrap. for your net worth. If the stock market drops, this will protect your assets. Jack, by the way, did you end up grabbing any cupcakes from that retirement party down at Omaha? I wish I had gone. I wish I had gone too. We didn't get the invite because 10 days ago was the final day of Warren Buffett's 60-year tenure as the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. Warren Buffett, who's 94, is now chairman of the board, not CEO. The Dumbledore of the stock market.

16:45He's the boss of the new boss, Greg Abel. Now, besties, Wall Street, kind of unconvinced with the new guy running things, which is why the stock of Berkshire Hathaway is actually down since that announcement. Berkshire is down 7 % since the retirement news was announced in May, while the rest of the stock market, the S &P 500, is up 22%. Ouch. But we think now is the time to buy the Warren dip. Call it a post-Buffet discount. Now, Yetis, if you dive in T-boy style and look at Berkshire Hathaway stock right now, you'll notice it's a laughably high dollar price. $750 ,000 per share. But Jack and I want to remind you that with fractional investing and the class B shares that are available, you could buy any price of this stock.

17:31The price of the stock is irrelevant. You could buy a dollar,$10, or$750 ,000 of the stock. Now, the truth is Berkshire Hathaway is comprised of entire companies, a whole bunch of stocks, and cash with benefits. It's basically a financial advisor without the fee. It's the Costco of wealth advisors. Exactly. So Jack, let's say we invested$100 in Berkshire Hathaway stock. How would that$100 be broken down by its investments? $35 of that$100 would be buying entire companies that Berkshire Hathaway owns. Exactly, because Berkshire owns and operates Geico, Duracell, Brooks Running, and an entire railroad called BNSF.

18:10Altogether, 68 companies Berkshire owns, handpicked by Warren Buffett and his team, each with a CEO, handpicked by Warren and his team. And altogether, those 68 businesses made nearly 400 billion bucks in revenue last year, which would make them the sixth largest company by revenue in America. But it's not just companies Berkshire owns, they also have a big stock portfolio you'd be getting a piece of. So from that$100 you spent on Berkshire stock,$28 of it is a basket of other stocks that Warren Buffett loved. You'd be buying a piece of Apple, American Express, Coca-Cola, Bank of America, Chevron.

18:44Even the Atlanta Braves are partially owned by Berkshire Hathaway. So if you buy Berkshire, you're getting a piece of 37 stocks, 68 entire companies. So owning Berkshire is really like owning a piece of 105 different companies, all of them Warren Buffett loves. Okay, but Jack, pause the pot. The final piece of that$100 you may invest in Berkshire Hathaway, where's that going? $37 of it is cash. You see, besties, Berkshire Hathaway won't reinvest profits into stocks or acquisitions unless they think it's for a good price. And for years now, they haven't thought that the stock market is a good price.

19:20So they've been waiting for like a recession or a dip in the stock market before spending their record$400 billion dollar mountain of cash. Okay, but Jack, we should also point out that is not just cash, right? Like this is cash with benefits. While they're waiting for the dip, Berkshire generates at least 4 % interest on the cash that they hold. Add it all up, Yetis, and in 2026, we're not putting all our eggs in one basket. We're putting a bunch of them into warrants. And here's one more big reason why. If AI is a bubble, it turns out, and the stock market falls this year, then Berkshire will be an outperformer, possibly one of the best performers in the event of a market downturn.

19:57So besties Berkshire in 2026, it's downturn insurance. It's AI bubble pop, bubble wrap, but for your portfolio. If the stock market drops, it won't break because you got Berkshire. Trey, do we have a bubble wrap sound we can throw in? Lovely. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Berkshire? Warren is an investing god, but did he leave us with disciples? Yeti's Berkshire Hathaway is up 5.5 million percent in the 60 years with Warren as the CEO. That's an average gain of 20 % a year. And that's twice as good as the S &P 500 in those 60 years. He is the best stock and company picker of all time.

20:34Now, for four years, we've known Warren's successor would be Greg Abel. But is he a disciple? In other words, does he have Warren's judgment, his instinct, and his stock-picking prowess? Well, Besties, only time will tell on that. But we think the$1 trillion of assets Warren leaves behind has a long runway of profits either way. We think Warren's investment legacy will last longer than his employment. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for the new Friday? California billionaires are scrolling Zillow listings in Florida because of a proposed wealth tax. The reason income taxes don't work on billionaires, billionaires don't have income.

21:13They have stock. For our second story, Jollibee is the fast food phenom of the Philippines. And they announced a US IPO is coming. It's part of a new trend we call the Asian tsunami, coming for our economy and our stock exchanges. And our third and final story was our third and final stock pick of 2026, Berkshire Hathaway, because everyone needs a stock market hedge. Think of it like a bubble wrap for your 401k. You want to protect that thing. But besties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, Hut Hut the NFL just had its best year for ratings since 1989. The average NFL regular season game was watched by 19 million people.

21:52That's up 10 % from last year. Get this, four of the top five most watched games this regular season, the Chiefs. Ironic, though, because they missed the playoffs. Awkward, you know. It's wild. In the incredibly splintered media landscape, everyone has their own feed, everyone has their own YouTube Up Next video. The NFL gets 19 million people per game. And second, we just got the final list of the most on-time airlines in the world. Who we got, Jack? Well, we only got one American airline. The other nine were abroad. Aeromexico is the number one most on-time airline, on-time 90 % of the time.

22:23Saudi Arabia is number two, and Scandinavian Air is number three. Delta is the only American airline in the top 10, because 81 % of the time, it's on time every time. SkyMiles loyal. And finally, the CES Consumer Electronics Show. It just ended. But a couple of other wild inventions we should mention, other than that smart Lego brick. An ice maker that uses artificial intelligence to reduce noise when the ice gets dumped from the tray. There was a hormone tracking device that is shaped like an egg. And a lollipop that plays music into your head from your mouth. But now time for the best fact yet.

22:59This one whipped up by Rachel Hauer, our legendary Yeti. Because it's National Bobblehead Day. And the National Bobblehead Hall of Fame and Museum. It's actually real and it's in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Funny story how it started. Two buddies realized they had way too many bobblehead dolls in their collection and not enough space to hold any more of them. So it's actually a very clever business trick. They turned that problem into a revenue generating solution, a bobblehead museum. They turned their hoarding issue into a side hustle by launching a museum. But here's the trivia. Who got the first ever bobblehead doll ever sold at an American sports game?

23:36It was in 1960. It was a center fielder for the New York Yankees. and another center fielder for the New York Giants. It was Mickey Mantle and Willie Mays. Yetis, you'll look fantastic to end the first week of the year. Jack, hello over there to kick things off. Yetis, Nick and I tried out this whole stock pick of the year thing. We're excited to share it with you. We're curious if you want more of that kind of thing from us. Our portfolio resolutions, let us know what you think. Drop them in the comments. In the meantime, though, we'll pause the pod so you can get to your happy hour. Jack, I'll see you in a sec.

24:09We'll see you Monday. Can't wait

24:15And before we go A congratulations to Daniel Day and Kira Langland Who just got engaged in Phoenix, Arizona With the best ring yet And a shout out to Daniel's mom, Juliana Who's listening up in Canada And a happy birthday to Yeti Ken Shubzda Turning 34 years old in Brooklyn, New York This helicopter pilot and aspiring jazz pianist Is getting married to Britney this year And a big happy birthday to Miles, who's turning 10 years old in Ontario, Canada. Welcome to the double digits, Miles. And Kai Curling in Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, is celebrating the best birthday yet. Thanks for joining us all the way from Mongolia, Kai.

24:53Happy birthday to Silvio Uliwi in Miami, Florida, who introduced the show to his daughter. Silvio, thanks for sharing the show. And Sergio Salazar is turning 28 years old in Los Angeles, California. Sergio, let us know if you get that famous tuna for your big day. And happy birthday to Stepan Kulaini, who's turning 32 in Atlanta. This phenomenal father is doing what dads do, DIY projects with his kids today. And a happy birthday to Karat Agrawal, turning 13 years old in Dublin, Ohio. Have a blast for the big day, Karat. And Brennan Thaney, thank you for gifting your partner tickets to our live IPO tour show in Austin, Texas with a survivor-style puzzle.

25:30Good reveal.

25:34This is Jack. I own stock of Berkshire Hathaway and Disney. Nick owns stock of Luckin Coffee. And we both own stock of Apple as well as ETFs of the S &P 500.

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