🔵 “$400M Latte” — Blue Bottle’s acquisition. Oil’s everything tax. Startup-maxxing surge. +Solo Dining Surge

0:28This is Nick. Plus the three stories you love, performed live, and more. I mean, there's actually a few surprises, but we can't tell you them right now. Jack, three fantastic stories for today's show. So good. What do we got on the T-Boy? For our first story, the price of oil rose by 35 % last week. Petropop. It's the biggest one-week spike in oil since we've been keeping track. Since the Rockefellers. And because oil seeps into everything, this is a tax on your life. For our second story, oil is important, but first, coffee. Yes, Jack. Blue Bottle Coffee was just acquired for$400 million. Blue Bottle Coffee.

1:03It's an American brand inspired by Japanese design, owned by a Dutch company, and just sold to China. Okay, Carmen Sandiego. And our third and final story. America is losing jobs, but it's gaining entrepreneurs. Besties, 2025 was the biggest year for new startups ever. This is Foundermaxing. But Yetis, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. I mean, we're just dancing on that intro. Love the mix. Love the stories, Jack. But Yetis, did you go out to a dinner, a concert, maybe a show this past weekend? And did you go with nobody? Because trend alert. Yes. Welcome to the solo economy. Get this, 20 % of Broadway tickets are now bought by solo attendees.

1:43That's twice the rate of just a couple years ago. And it ain't just Phantom of the Opera. Movies and restaurants, they're swinging solo too these days. The fastest growing sales in this economy are for a party of one. Add it all up, it is a solo leisure boom. It's mono-y, no other mono. Jack, it's a menage of just moi. And it's an escalation of a story we did last year on the solo dining surge. Back then, restaurants were seeing a 52 % jump in reservations for Uno. It's a burger and beer night. And Brian. Yeah, no Brianna. The context to sprinkle on, well, more people are living single and more people are feeling confident out there.

2:16Because it does take some self-confidence to sit alone at a restaurant. I mean, it's a flex, Jack. It is a flex. One of my favorite movie theater going experiences of all time. Yeah. I saw Jurassic Park 6 alone. enormous tub of popcorn didn't need to share with anyone. I was going to say, I was going to say it's because you're a popcorn guy. And I know what happens when I stick my hand in there. Your hand gets slapped now. Besties, there is no better treat to yourself than a spa day with a little less small talk. Unless, of course, you love the person you're supposed to be small talking with. So besties, send this to your buddy who started the alone leisure trend.

2:48You know who they are. Yeah, send this to your buddy who you didn't wingman this past weekend. Hey, Timmy, we owe you one. Jack, let's set out three stories. 15 years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in a dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is the norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50%, that's a fat tip. T-Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, cause we ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show.

3:21Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor.

3:31Top hats, baseball hats, Von Dutch hats. We wear so many hats on this podcast. Honestly, we're not great at all of them. No, we've been avoiding hiring someone to wear those hats instead of us, especially the Von Dutch one, because hiring and training can take forever. Well, I'm proud to say that we are hiring right now at T-Boy, and this is a job for Indeed Sponsored Jobs. Because sponsored jobs posted directly on Indeed are 95 % more likely to report a hire than non-sponsored jobs. So besties spend less time searching and more time actually interviewing candidates who check all your boxes, less stress, less time, more results.

4:01When you need the right person to cut through the chaos, this is a job for Indeed sponsored jobs. And listeners of the show will get a$75 sponsored job credit to help get your job the premium status it deserves at indeed.com slash podcast. So just go to Indeed.com slash podcast right now and support our show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast. That's Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Need a hiring hero? This is a job for Indeed-sponsored jobs. So yet he's Jack's instituted a new business model for his Airbnb hosting. And Jack, what is it? Here it is. Host equals guest.

4:36Yes. I funnel all my revenue from being a host on Airbnb into one bank account and use that same bank account to book travel for myself. Basically, it's Jack's host guest bank account for when he hosts and when he's a guest somewhere else. When I lived in the city, Nick, every time my apartment was available on Airbnb, it would get booked like that. I mean, think about how often are you away from home? You got the bridesmaid, you got the shower, you got the bachelorette, you got the wedding. That's three weekends away just for one wedding right there. Plus, you got to visit your mother. Naturally.

5:05Well, that's a lot of potential hosting that you could be doing on Airbnb. Let someone else stay at your place while you're away. Take that host money and spend it when you're a guest somewhere else. Have a business model like me. If you want to travel more, hosting more is a great way to make it happen financially. Your home might be worth more than you think. Find out how much at Airbnb.com slash host.

5:27For our first story, oil prices exploded higher on Friday on word from the White House about the war in Iran. It's the crude awakening. It's the crude awakening. Unless you're an organic mushroom forager, high oil prices are gonna hit your wallet. Yetis, each day last week, we did a story covering the war in Iran. And at first, we were surprised to see stocks actually rise. Yeah, the reason, we told you last week, Wall Street's base case was regime change light. But now, that's off the table. Because on Friday, President Trump tweeted that he would demand an unconditional surrender from Iran to get any kind of deal.

6:05And that was in all caps, which is why oil prices surged a shocking 14 % on Friday. Biggest one-day jump since the Rockefellers. And over the course of the week, it was the biggest five-day jump since we've been keeping track. 35%. Basically, Trump's all caps declaration is a sign that this war, it ain't going to be a quick one. And that's bad news for the oil market. because one-fifth of the world's transported oil goes through the Strait of Hormuz just off the coast of Iran. But now that oil highway has been closed. Qatar, by the way, they just shut down natural gas production. They basically got no space to even store the stuff.

6:38Because they can't export it through the Strait of Hormuz. In fact, Qatar's oil minister said that oil could hit$150 a barrel in weeks if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed by the Iranians. $150 a barrel? That would be an all-time record-high oil price. Yes, it would be. Beating the 147 record set back in 2008, which triggered our financial crisis. Add it all up, and that's why Jack and I are calling this the crude awakening. And oil? Yeah, it seeps into everything. Oil is the global air that the economy breathes. You can't get that stuff off anything. Can't even get olive oil off my hands. And the price of crude West Texas intermediate oil is up 40 % since the Friday before the war began.

7:22The good stuff. But besties, there are some winners to this oil petro pop. There are some bulls swimming in the oil. Top of the list, Canada. Yeah. North of the border, they export huge amounts of oil. And now the thing they're pumping out of the ground is even more valuable than before. So European heads of state are calling up Ottawa right now and asking for some emergency tanker deliveries. Please, pretty please. Texas is also a big winner for a similar reason. Good point, Jack. Oil companies are quietly fist bumping this high oil price because it will certainly boost their quarterly profits.

7:52Yeah, they got their own cha-ching buttons. But Jack, what about the unexpected losers of the high oil prices? The bears swimming in the petrol. Top of this list is Walmart. Yeah. Because for Walmart, squeezed consumers will be even more squeezed as their gasoline and heating prices rise. Yeah, the Costco guys may not be hitting up Costco as much. And at Procter & Gamble, their Tide products, Tampax products, Gillette products, all of them are made of plastic and packaged in plastic. And plastic is made of petrol. Even Etsy, the online arts and crafts store, is affected by oil prices. I mean, Jack, those candle materials can't be shipped unless they're on a truck, which is run on gas.

8:32Or diesel. Either way, it comes from underground. And now you know why my birthday gift to you is delayed. But the biggest surprise loser of the spike last week in oil prices is the Federal Reserve. That's right, because our central bank wants to cut rates and stop being the party pooper for the housing market right now. Oil was the one bright spot defying inflation in this economy, but now oil is rising just like the price of everything else. The 30-year mortgage, it fell below 6 % two weeks ago. We were so excited, first time in years. But now, because of the price of oil going up, mortgage prices are back above 6%.

9:04Wah, wah. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for our bodies who are looking at this oil seeping into everything economy? me. High oil prices are like a new sales tax. Everyone pays them for everything. Yetis, let's just let this sing in for a second. Anything plastic, anything that needs to be cooked, anything in a building that needs to be heated, anything that requires a vehicle at any point in the supply chain, Jack, if it's got atoms, it needs oil. It needs oil. Nick and I tried really hard to think of a product not affected in any way by the rise in oil prices. All right, let's whip out the whiteboard here.

9:39Like, I don't know, maybe a foraged mushroom for sale at a farmer's market. Maybe like that's not affected by the rise in oil prices. Maybe, maybe. Because even that farmer had to drive the tractor at some point or like drive his vehicle to the farmer's market. And that vehicle, even if it's electric, it's got rubber tires and that's Petro. You shiitakes are kidding me, Jack. Honestly, Yetis, for anything physical, even digital stuff, the more expensive the price of oil, the higher the cost for the company, which shrinks profits or raises prices or both. So besties, Jack and I got to ask the big question.

10:11Who has the higher pain point? Iranians who are getting barraged by American and Israeli missiles. Or an American president whose popularity is often tied to oil prices. Drop your thoughts in the comments and we'll start getting on that second story. For our second story, Blue Bottle Coffee is getting sold to the owner of China's Luckin Coffee for 400 million bucks. Blue Bottle. They invented the modern day minimalist coffee trend. Yes, they did. Because theatricality sells. All right, besties. Sometimes you get an origin story so good. I'm just going to read this line. You ready for this? This company was started by a broke clarinet player in a potting shed.

10:50Are you insulting clarinet players? Because you know I played clarinet in elementary school. I know, and you're impressive. Read number two. Yeah, I was read number two. Well, this young man with this clarinet decided to take on$15 ,000 in debt and opened their first coffee cart in Oakland many years ago. And the goal of this coffee cart was the opposite of convenience. Yeah, the goal was single origin, slow it down, the kind of beans that you got to sip with two hands. Blue Bottle started the third wave of coffee. Yes. The first wave was Folgers made it home. Then you had Starbucks with Speed, and then Blue Bottle slowed the entire coffee industry down.

11:27Third way of coffee houses treat coffee like wine. Snobbly. I took Jack to a Blue Bottle. He forgot his copy of The New Yorker at home. They almost didn't let him in. It's like a passport situation. But besties, you know Blue Bottle because you've seen Blue Bottle even if you've never been there. They pioneered the entire minimalist design aesthetic. The pine wood counters, the polished concrete floors, clean everything. This is the Apple store of cappuccino. That whitewashed Williamsburg coffee shop you go to with the bitter barista and$8 espressos, it's a disciple of Blue Bottle coffee. And the coffee price, that reminds us of Apple too.

11:59Yeah, it does, Jack. The double digit latte was invented by Blue Bottle. Yeah, and that kind of money attracts VC. Blue Bottle raised 117 million bucks from the Instagram founders, Google Ventures, and even Bono. Guy came a long way from his broke clarinet class. And what do we like to say about it all, Jack? America runs on Dunkin' and Dreesen runs on Blue Bottle. Pairs well with Allbirds' AirPods and an overpriced studio apartment. But besties, this is what Jack and I find fascinating. This is an American startup inspired by Japanese design acquired by a Dutch conglomerate. Yes, because Nestle, the world's biggest food company, acquired Blue Bottle in 2017 for$700 million.

12:41And the strategy made sense. Scale the cult following. They added 100 new locations, ready to drink grocery lattes, and went into six new countries. They expanded the tote bag merch into fashion, too. Blue Bottle had opportunities where they would open mini stores over at fashion shows. That was the association. What the NPR tote is to Boston, the Blue Bottle tote is to San Francisco. And it paid off. Last year, Blue Bottle did 250 million bucks in revenue. It had become a lifestyle business. But the one caffeinated problem. Decaffeinated problem. It never had profits. Plus, Jack, a bunch of the Blue Bottle Baristas unionized, which was definitely not in Nestle's pitch deck.

13:18Which leads to the wild plot twist. Now, this American startup, inspired by Japanese design, owned by a Dutch conglomerate, is selling to China. Get this, a Chinese private equity firm behind Luckin Coffee is buying up Blue Bottle for 400 million bucks. And Luckin Coffee is the polar opposite of its new sister company, Blue Bottle. Oh, it's on the other end of the Venti, Jack. Luckin has got 30 ,000 stores selling$2 coffees, but they're buying an American artistic brand with 100 stores selling$10 coffees. And since Luckin just entered the United States last year, China is now a leader in both the high-end and low-end coffee business here in the States.

13:57Yeah, Luckin has taken on Dahlina Duncan on the low end, but also Stumptown and your local art bro barista spot right down the street. Nick, I think some Boston listeners are unsubscribing because you just called Duncan low end. I think you should apologize. I'm sorry, high calorie, low end. But besties, we still got to ask this question. Why the price cut? Like 700 million bucks to 400 million bucks. Why is it, Jack? Blue Bottle's valuation fell in the last nine years, maybe because you can't scale craft. Blue Bottle, they built a coffee cult, but there's a reason you don't see many mainstream cults.

14:30Oh, I know you're thinking, Jack. Yeah, he's in the besties. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Blue Bottle Coffee? The best retail is actually theater. Now, Yetis, over the weekend, Jack and I read this interview with the CEO of Bloomingdale's, the department store, talking about retail theater. Bloomingdale's is doing surprisingly well. While Saks Fifth Avenue and Macy's are struggling, Bloomingdale's is doing pretty good because they've invested in their windows. You know, the shopping windows you see from the street. That is the theatrical effect. Now, here's the idea. With AI everywhere, we crave human craft.

15:02And we're in an Instagram era, so we want visual stimulus. And in the attention economy, the bar is very high to keep our attention. Craft, attention, stimulus, Blue Bottle hit all of those with their stores wherever they opened. But Blue Bottle's real accomplishment is the theatricality of their stores that you don't see from the competition. If you've hung out at a Blue Bottle for 12 hours doing work, you know that they have a custom glass drip coffee contraption that no other coffee shop had. The way they brew their coffee in a Blue Bottle looks like a Dr. Seuss book. There's like pipes and drips and machines.

15:37It was Willy Wonkian. You see, unlike Starbucks or small local coffee shops, Blue Bottle drew in with these giant artistic contraptions. It's like a science fair or something in there. Exactly, Blue Bottle. It shows that the best retail is actually theater. Now, a quick word from our sponsor. NetSuite by Oracle. Yetis, on our show, you know, we love to sprinkle on some context. Because news doesn't mean anything if you don't have a sense of history, the competitive situation, etc. Yada, yada, yada. Well, it's the same with AI. If your AI tool doesn't know anything about your biz, then it's not going to be the best one yet.

16:13That's why we're pumped to promote NetSuite by Oracle. It's helping over 43 ,000 businesses figure out how AI can work for them. NetSuite is actually the number one cloud ERP connected to your entire enterprise. It has your data on financials, HR, inventory, commerce, and CRM. To be honest, it's probably going to have to sprinkle on context about your business to you. It's that intelligent. That connected data is what makes your AI smarter. So it doesn't just guess, it knows. This isn't another bolted on tool. It's AI built into the system that runs your business. So whether your company has millions or even hundreds of millions, NetSuite helps you stay ahead.

16:46If your revenues are at least in the seven figures, get your free business guide, Demystifying AI, at netsuite.com slash tboy. The guide is free to use at netsuite.com slash tboy. NetSuite.com slash TBOI. Monarch. When I had student debt, I tracked my progress on an Excel spreadsheet I manually updated each month. Oh, I was Jack a spreadsheet jockey because when he was paying off his student debt, Monarch didn't exist yet. Well, one year ago, I proudly killed that spreadsheet I'd been building for 12 years. RIP spreadsheet. Because Monarch is a way better solution. All your financial accounts are linked to Monarch.

17:23every credit card, checking account, brokerage account, even our mortgages, lie balances updated in real time. I'm still paying down my mortgage and Monarch gives me the visibility and tools to do it. You can use it too. Create savings buckets and financial goals in Monarch. Set yourself up for financial success this year. Are you familiar with the Sankey diagram? I had no idea what it was, Jack. Well, once you see it, you can't unsee it. It's brilliant. And Monarch visually shows you what you're spending. And we did not make up that term. Your investment portfolio, Monarch compares it to the S &P 500 for you.

17:51Set yourself up for financial success in 2026 with Monarch, the all-in-one tool that makes proactive money management simple all year long. Use code T-Boy at Monarch.com for half off your first year. That's 50 % off your first year at Monarch.com with code T-Boy. For our third and final story, it's, oh my God, is that entrepreneurs? Jack, entrepreneurs are sprouting up everywhere like beautiful weeds fertilized by AI. Besties, this is the great unbossing. Because necessity is the mother of invention, could AI create a golden era of entrepreneurship? Ooh, we got the data. But besties, as my doctor likes to say, Jack, let's start with the bad news.

18:34On Friday, we got the jobs report for the US economy. We lost 92 ,000 jobs in February. Besties, for the fifth time in nine months, more people were fired than hired. If you were affected, we feel for you. Tech in particular lost 11 ,000 jobs last month. That's the AI effect. Remember, 4 ,000 of those jobs lost in February, they were from block, right, Jack? Yeah, we covered it. Jack Dorsey laid off 4 ,000 people, replacing them explicitly with AI. It's bleak, besties, and this part almost makes it rubbing some salt into that wound, Jack. If AI did take your job, it's probably AI that's reading your resume and cover letter as you try to get a new job.

19:09But besties, pause the pod because we found a bright piece of data for you. We found record numbers of people saying, I'm done with the rat race. I'm done working for the man. I'm done trying to impress AIHR with my resume bullets. I'm unbossing. Besties, that's right. We just got mogged by the jobs report, but now we're founder maxing. We're working for ourselves. We're founder maxing, besties. And get this, here are the numbers. 532 ,000 new business applications were filed in January, according to the Census Bureau. almost half a million applications for new businesses in one month. That's up 37 % from last year.

19:47That is 17 ,000 new startups every day. And for the full year, 2025, 5.6 million new businesses were formed in America. That's a record high, beating the previous record of 2021. I'm sorry, Jack, could you put this in LinkedIn terms for us, please, my jargon friend? This is a shocker. The number of people listing themselves as founders is up 69 % on LinkedIn from one year later. And Yetis, it's because necessity is the mother of invention, and AI and an economic slowdown are necessitating entrepreneurship. And we've actually seen this happen in the economy before. In 2008, during the financial crisis, that was a huge moment for company creation.

20:25It's what led to Uber, Airbnb, Instagram, the D2C craze of the 2010s. The pandemic was another founder pill moment. Lots of people started blue-collar businesses during the pandemic to take advantage of the spreading out effect as people moved. And now in 2026, AI layoffs are accidentally birthed in a new generation of entrepreneurs pink slip to startup pipeline. Now, a negative story could be told here. Needing work, people are trying to get hired. It's not working out. So they're doing their own thing in desperation. But Jack, we also should point out this could result in something beautifully positive too.

20:57You can't rely on companies right now. So you're betting on yourself. Although ironically, with the help of AI. So Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies founder maxing out there? Are we witnessing the start of the optimistic case for AI? Now, Yetis, last week, we did our best episode yet at the time about Cal AI, a company that uses AI to count calories from food that you take a picture of. In just 18 months, Cal AI scaled to 15 million downloads and$30 million of annual subscription revenue. And it was founded by high school students. It's an AI success story. The 18-year-old founders vibe-coded their way to glory without engineers.

21:36And that's what the AI optimists have been saying all along. Yes, AI will eliminate some jobs, looking at you, Jack Dorsey and Block, but it will create other jobs in even bigger numbers. As Sam Altman aggressively optimistically puts it, lamp lighters lost their jobs when electricity was invented, but ultimately they found better jobs. For founders, low-cost AI tools are eliminating the need to hire expensive engineers, designers, and bookkeepers, whether you're launching an app or launching a plumbing business. So, Besties, when we look at these numbers, this is the democratization of innovation.

22:07Or put another way, AI is the boot in bootstrapping. The record number of new businesses formed last year, we call it founder maxing. Yes, we do. And it could be the start of the optimistic case for AI. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us to kick off the live show week? Oil prices rose 14 % on Friday, ending the week 35 % higher, the biggest weekly oil price jump ever. This is the Jurassic period. Besties, higher oil prices, they are like a sales tax. Everyone pays them for everything. For our second story, now that Blue Bottle got acquired for$400 million, Blue Bottle is now sister companies with Luckin' Coffee.

22:47Blue Bottle's trick to start a cult? Well, the best retail is actually theater. And our third and final story, we found a bright spot in the negative jobs data. It's easier now than ever to start a company. Besties, we just got mogged by the jobs report, but now we're founder maxing. But besties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, the award goes to Ben Affleck. The actor has an AI startup that was just acquired by Netflix. The startup is called Interpositive. It gives AI tools to filmmakers that don't replace the filmmakers. It just helps them. It's an AI that guides a director on the editorial angles and storyline as they're building out a movie.

23:27And now Netflix is buying it. And second, United Airlines may kick you off for life if you don't wear your headphones. In United's terms and conditions, wearing headphones when watching a device was a common courtesy, but now it's an official rule. Right now, you could get permanently banned from United if you were scrolling TikTok without the AirPods in. And finally, remember Cluelly, the AI startup that helps you lie and like cheat on your job interview? Well, the founder reported doing 7 million bucks a year in revenue last year, but he also just admitted in a tweet that he made all that up.

23:58That's called fraud. It's actually one of the great things about like business and stock markets. Lying is illegal. It is. So you're going to need a lawyer. Now time for the best fact yet, which because it's Monday means some T-boy trivia. Jack, what do we got? Cause I'm feeling a little, feeling a little groggy over here. Well, our clocks jumped forward by an hour last night, which was not fun. We've had daylight savings since 1918 in the United States. But two states said, no thanks. Yeah. So what are the two American states that have opted out of daylight savings? You can drop them in the comments now.

24:31We'll give you a second. And Jack, what is the answer? The two states that don't do daylight savings? Hawaii and Arizona. Hawaii and Arizona. There you go, guys. I mean, I like it. You're just being yourself. Although we should point out one wrinkle here. The Navajo Nation within Arizona does observe daylight savings time, even though the state does not. I'm a fan of that. So if you're driving through Arizona, you may go through like three different time zones and you don't even realize it. Yetis, you are looking fantastic to kick off the week. Jack, bags packed. We ready to go on this thing? DC, baby.

25:03We are getting dinner with one lucky Yeti on Tuesday night. The show's Wednesday night. Doors open at six, showtime at seven, and Nick and I are going to hit up a bar afterwards to hang with you. And we will see you there. You can grab those remaining tickets right now. We and I. We'll see you tomorrow.

25:24And before we go, a happy birthday to Yeti Keeley Lamb down in Dallas. Happy birthday to Kristen Cruz in Farmington Hills, Michigan. And Samil Agarwal, enjoy that birthday over in the Garden State. And a big happy fourth birthday to Anaira Golmkale in Seattle, Washington. And Alongo is the father of two with the best birthday yet in Montgomery, New Jersey. And congratulations to Charles Prenivu, who just became a charter pilot over in Hyannis, flying just outside Boston. Congratulations to Kent and Elena Meredith, who are celebrating their first IBO, their initial baby offering, to Theo, born in San Mateo, California.

26:00And the Marones, we've got an anniversary down in Miami. Congratulations to Max for getting into fifth grade at Calhoun in New York City. Yeah, coolest building in the city. It's the TV School Jack. It looks like a whole VCR. Legendary place. Congrats, Max. And a huge shout out to Max Bosch Powers at SMU. He's recruiting right now for a finance job, been listening to the show for years. This guy's going to crush his interview. Yetis, trust us. If you are hiring in finance, Max Bosch Powers is already your future CEO. You could even call him your future MVP.

26:36This is Jack. I'm on Stock of Netflix, and Nick and I both on Stock of Airbnb. ***

27:09Paid for by the Coalition to empower our future.