🥪 “AI Can’t Bake Bread” — Jersey Mike’s IPO. OPEC for Demand. Nantucket’s Influencer Drama. +Weather’s “Wet Bias”

0:28This is Nick. the over-under on pulling the hammy on that one, Jack. I haven't sprinted in like three years, so. I think there's a call sheet going on right now about how many Achilles Jack comes back with. Dude, I told the coach, I'm just a ringer for this game. I told the coach it's my first game in 10 years. He's putting me at third base. You're a grown man. There's a coach, Jack? I'm sorry. This is why we got into entrepreneurship. You're your own boss over here. Jack, three fantastic stories for the best show in business. Well, what have we got on the T-Boy? For our first story, Jersey Mike's went public yesterday with the most vinegar-soaked IPO of all time.

1:02Jersey Mike's stock, it popped on day one because AI can't make a BLT. For our second story, while the war in Iran adds new combatants and new battlefields, oil isn't rising. It's because China's on an oil diet and it's lost 40 % of its weight. And our third and final story, an Antucket shop banned influencers, but then accidentally became an influencer magnet. That's the Barbra Streisand effect, and every business gotta know about it. But Yetis, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. What a mix of stories to go into the weekend. Just love the mix, Jack. No one else would donate. We usually cover financial forecasts on this show.

1:35But weather forecasts are now affecting financial forecasts. Because the biggest driver of how much money you will spend today, it's that tiny little weather app on your phone. Specifically, it's the sun or rain symbol that it chooses to show for today's weather. That's right, Yetis. The Apple weather app. It's our GDP. destiny. You canceled your Super Saturday spending splurge because of the big raindrop on today's weather app. Okay, but pause the pod, Jack, because there's a problem here. False forecasts. Because weather apps turn the complex world of meteorology into one single emoji every day.

2:08And it's often frustratingly wrong, and we got the reasons why. We've all been there. The app only shows rain, so you cancel the canoe. And you call off the tea time. You reschedule the rock climb. Yeah, but then, Jack, it's sunny, and all those businesses missed out on your money. It's not just you. Weather apps overstate the likelihood of rain almost every time. It's a real phenomenon, besties, and it's called wet bias. Wet bias. It turns out the issue isn't the temperature, though. It's the translation. Get this, because 50 % chance of rain doesn't mean 50 % of the day is rain. It means there's a 50 % chance that one spot in your region gets 0.01 inches of rain.

2:44That's the technical definition of 50 % chance of rain. Yes, like you could get 0.01 inch of rain for one minute in just one part of town. And it's sunny for the rest of us for the whole day. But the weather app will say it's raining right now. So you postponed the surprise party picnic. And that, besties, is wet bias. And it is raining on your weekend plans, literally. And it's messing with our economy's mojo, figuratively. So besties, before you delay that outdoor dinner this weekend, double check the rain data. And listen to your local weather woman. Tom Capposino here with WDVC5. We got a chance of high pressure and definitely low pressure.

3:20I'm seeing three fantastic stories on the horizon. Jack, why don't we hit them right now? Let's take them to the commercial break. Let's hit the jingle. 15 years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is the norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50%, that's a fat tip. T-Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show.

3:51Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor.

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5:05Check Decagon out at decagon.ai slash tboy. That's Decagon.ai slash T-B-O-Y. Monarch. Yeah, it is. You know my first money lesson? It was where to put our lemonade stand. I was wondering, it was on the Upper East Side. Do we do it on Lexington Avenue or Park Avenue? Wait a second. New York City has lemonade stands on the sidebar? They didn't. We were pioneers, Jack. Lexington Avenue is more commercial. Park is more residential. So what did we learn, Jack? Families are willing to pay more for lemonade. So you set it up on Park. Yeah, we did it on Park. Besties, no one gives you financial lessons in life.

5:35You end up figuring most of it out as you grow up. But we love Monarch because it's like a financial advisor in your pocket. Because every minute, it's tracking your savings, spending, investments, and more. For instance, Monarch's goal tracking feature shows if you're on track for that summer trip to Santa Fe. And it tells you what percent of your income is going somewhere that's a surprise. I open Monarch all the time because it takes the mental load off tracking my finances. And whether you're single, you're in a family, or you're dinking it up, Monarch's the way. Our personal fave, the AI Weekly Recap.

5:59A once-per-week gut check on what you did with your money. Hey, Nick, you've spent 96 bucks at kids' lemonade stands since July. Yeah, because we pioneered it for him, Jack. Resties, write your own story with Monarch. Use code T-Boy at Monarch.com to get your first year of Monarch Core half off at just 50 bucks. It's 50 % off your first year at Monarch.com with code T-Boy. Nick, did you see Liquid IV teamed up with Ring Pop? I did, Jack. And honestly, it's one of those collabs where you immediately think, how has nobody done this before? I mean, Ring Pop Cherry is already iconic. My sons love Ring Pops, by the way.

6:33I give it to them at the beach. It occupies them for about an hour. But now it's a sugar-free liquid IV flavor too. Ah, it's not just a fun flavor. It's still the same liquid IV hydration formula that hydrates faster than water alone, has three times the electrolytes of the leading sports drink, plus eight vitamins and nutrients. I've been throwing one of these in my water before the gym and before bed pretty much every night if I sweated that day. Way more fun than drinking plain water. Probably for workouts, travel days, hot days. Honestly, anytime you know, you're probably just not drinking enough water.

7:01So if you're looking for an excuse to actually stay hydrated, this is a pretty good one. Check out the new Liquid IV sugar-free ring pop cherry at liquidivy.com. For our first story, Jersey Mike's just pulled off the biggest restaurant IPO in 15 years. Because when the market's only serving AI, an Italian cold cut combo with oil and vinegar sounds really good, doesn't it, Nick? Especially if it's heated. If you know, you know, we'll get to that in a sec. In the meantime, Jack, let's kick it off with the hero stat about Jersey Mike's. All right, here we go. Jersey Mike's, nothing to do with a guy named Mike.

7:38Jersey Mike's has everything to do with a 17-year-old boy named Peter Cancro, who took out a$125 ,000 loan from his high school football coach. Well, he did buy Jersey Mike's from one guy named Mike. Hold the hoagies. On Thursday, Jersey Mike's raised a billion dollars in the second largest IPO in restaurant history, trailing only McDonald's largest franchise, which IPO'd in 2011. Now, besties, as loyal listeners to the show, you know that because we covered the IPO paperwork when it first came out last month. We've never had IPO paperwork with the word vinegar in it more times. They said vinegar seven times.

8:11Oh, and they listed Ozempic as a business risk. We told you last month how the most delicious restaurant investment opportunity right now is to open your own Jersey Mike shop. And why is that, Jack? Because we dove into the numbers T-boy style. The average startup cost of a Jersey Mike's location is$515 ,000. And that investment is paid back in operating profits in less than three years. The cost of opening a Jersey Mike's is one half of a Taco Bell, one half of a Burger King, 70 % less than a Ronald McDonald's. But Jersey Mike's is driving three times more revenue per location than Subway is, despite having one-tenth the number of locations.

8:43And now Jersey Mike's plans to expand to 15 ,000 restaurants from 3 ,300 at Gabagool. Pretty sure Joey Triviani just subscribed to the pod, Nick. But the last time we covered Jersey Mike's, we told you about the founder to PE to IPO playbook. Two years ago, Jersey Mike sold to Blackstone private equity for 8 billion bucks. The goal was to IPO for high valuation somewhere down the line. Along the way, private equity streamlined the business. How did they do it, Jack? They cut Capacola costs and juiced the profits. Blackstone got rid of the private jet that Jersey Mike's owned and started bulk buying banana peppers instead.

9:16But in our research, we discovered two menu items where this private equity firm did the opposite of what seems to be efficient. Here's the new news, Yetis. There are two dishes where private equity actually added complexity, and it looks like it paid off. First, by adding salads. Fresh lettuce and vegetables is not an easy business. Just ask Sweetgreen. Yeah, Sweetgreen stocks down 90 % in the last two years. Now, Jersey Mike's didn't add that kind of salad, but they did add chicken salad to the menu to broaden the customer base. As they put it, and it worked. The second item they interestingly added was growing the griddle.

9:48They launched hot Italian subs in January, and it already makes up 3 % of the orders. And now besties, is he doing a cold sandwich? It's easier than hot. But private equity saw an opportunity in the complexity. Because hot subs are priced 20 % higher than cold subs, according to Jersey Mike's. So the heat basically turns a regular Sammy into a profit puppy. Now Jersey Mike's has done hot sandwiches forever, but we bet this PE management keeps pushing the cold cuts to get hot because it's more profitable. Just follow the money, besties. The guac, it's always extra. But most of the orders on Thursday were for Jersey Mike's stock.

10:20Yeah, not for the sandwiches. According to Bloomberg, shares were 10 times oversubscribed on IPO day. It's a lot of demand, which leads to our big takeaway. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies tossing vinegar over Jersey Mike's? Artificial intelligence can't bake bread. Yetis, it is the year of the AI IPO. SpaceX did it in June. Anthropics coming up in the fall. Open AI, they're coming soon after that. And yet 10 people wanted to buy a Jersey Mike stock for every one share available? Jack, this is the second biggest IPO in restaurant history. They raised a billion bucks yesterday. This reminds us of the quote we mentioned yesterday about Steve Jobs comparing tech to wine.

11:00Yeah, remember this one? Steve Jobs said that Dom Perignon champagne would outlast the iPhone. The iPhone. Cutting-edge engineered technology. But champagne is timeless. So besties, while AI may or may not be a bubble, we are certain that sandwiches are not a bubble. The sandwich was invented in 1762, and it's been eaten nonstop for 264 years. Can't stop that, Atkins. Can't stop that. Artificial intelligence can't bake bread. That's why there's appetite for Jersey Mike's stock. For our second story, why is gas still four bucks a gallon despite the war in Iran only getting worse? The answer is China.

11:39China now controls the price of oil because it's DOPEC. DOPEC. It's the OPEC of demand. Yetis, for those keeping score, last couple of weeks, two new countries and two new bodies of water became entangled in the war in Iran First, it was Iran-backed Houthi rebels shooting at ships in the Red Sea The Red Sea, it was the alternative route that ships were taking to avoid the Strait Hormuz But then on Thursday, Egypt reported that its ships got shot in the Mediterranean Sea And on the same day, Saudi Arabia joined the United States in retaliating against Iran's attacks Egypt, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, Red Sea, Mediterranean Sea.

12:15The war in Iran is bigger than ever right now. So, 21 weeks into this escalating war, Bessies, you would think that oil prices would be at ATH all-time highs. You'd think the gas station by you is selling unobtainium unleaded for$6 a gallon. But the answer is nope. Gas, it ain't$6. Not even$5. It's actually like$4.10 right now. According to AAA, the average national price of gas is$4.10 a gallon. That's up 31 % since last year, but it's not nearly as bad as anyone expected. And that phenomenon has baffled Wall Street. That phenomenon has delighted Wall Street. Because high oil prices are like a tax on the economy.

12:54Oil seeps into everything. And high oil prices worsen the inflation situation, which could push interest rates higher too. Another Furtada fiasco coming. So yet, these oil prices are causing pain in this economy, but to a way lower degree than we all feared. But now, here's the news. We finally know why. it's China. China. It's the biggest oil consumer in the world by far. Biggest importer of oil in the world by far. How does China build entire cities and bridges overnight like it's no big deal? Jack, you got to grease all that construction trucks with some oil, right? But the moment the war in Iran started, China snapped into an oil diet consuming way less.

13:31China has reduced its daily oil imports by 40%. They basically lost 40 % of their oil weight. They've gone from importing 13 million barrels of oil per day to just 7 million in just a few months. It's like China's on oily Ozempic, and how are they pulling it off, Jack? They're doing it first by tapping into their oil reserves, second by using electric vehicles instead of gas-powered cars, and third by leveraging their world-leading renewable energy. Now, besties, we all assumed that demand for oil was inelastic, as economists would put it. It's like the Titanic. It takes a long time to slow or change the direction of your oil consumption.

14:04But it turns out China's got incredible agility and discipline when it comes to an oil diet. They changed their national energy policy quicker than an F1 pit stop, Nick. We should point out, it's not totally clear why China is doing this exactly. Yeah, we're not in President Xi's geopolitical situation. Yeah, all we know is that what she wants, she gets. But China's oil diet has effectively bailed out the whole world from higher fuel and energy prices. It's a Chinese oil ozempic. The world has avoided an oil shortage because China volunteered to devour way less. Leaving way more oil for the rest of us.

14:38It's like, thank you, China. But I'm also wondering why you're doing this, China. And I fear that you have evil genius ulterior motives that's going to come back to bite us, China. Like your aunt on Ozepic at the dinner table, you don't totally know what's going on. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over in oil? China is the OPEC of oil demand. It's DOPEC. It's DOPEC. Yeti's OPEC is the 66-year-old cartel of authoritarian countries that dictates how much we all pay for gasoline. If OPEC wants oil prices to rise, they simply cut supply. If they want oil prices to fall, they simply increase supply.

15:14But this is what we find fascinating. China has showed that they can control the price of oil too, not by changing supply, but by changing demand. That is a new grip of power that China has on the global economy that's been previously unknown to us. I mean, Jack, imagine if China wanted oil prices to rise, maybe to inflict pain on the United States. They're the only country big enough that has the resources to buy so much oil that they could increase total demand and jack up prices. To quote Batman Jack, that is power you can't buy. The Iran war and the lack of high oil prices right now teaches us something new about the world.

15:47That China is the OPEC of oil demand. China is DOPEC. Now, a quick word from our sponsor. Scribe. Yetis, one thing we've noticed is that companies rarely hit a wall because they don't have enough people or budget. More often, it's because the way work actually gets done lives in someone's head. People end up doing things differently, and when someone leaves, that knowledge, it goes with them. That's exactly the problem today's sponsor Scribe wants to solve. Scribe is a workflow AI platform trusted by 94 % of the Fortune 500. It captures any workflow in real time and automatically turns it into a step-by-step guide.

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16:55That's S-C-R-I-B-E dot H-O-W slash T-B-O-Y. Cash App. All right, Yeti's the Mount Rushmore of rock stars. You got Ringo Starr, Jimmy Page, Mick Jagger. Well, carve Cash App's face into that granite tunic. Because Cash App is more than just a safe way to send and receive money. This thing is packed with perks without the hidden fees. Like getting exclusive early access to nationwide concert presales so you can catch Sabrina before your buddies can even spell espresso. Plus, they got discounts on everyday items. So that sweet treat you splurge on in the middle of the concert is less of a splurge.

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17:58Cash App green features, savings, direct deposit, roundups, overdraft coverage, and discounts provided by Cash App, a Block, Inc. brand. Visit cash.app slash legal slash podcast for full disclosures. For our third and final story, one store on Nantucket just banned influencers. while their rival store embraced influencers. A tiny island drama has sparked a national social media debate. Oh boy. And this reveals a mistake that you can use to your advantage. Oh, besties, it is a sign of the times. Literally. Downtown Nantucket, the most popular street corner on the fanciest island in New England.

18:34There's a nautical home shop called Four Winds. How would you picture this exactly, Jack? It's like your local home goods, Nick, but with prices 20 times higher. Yeah, that brass scotch is going to cost more than the actual condo. Four Winds has ship antiques, it's got whalebone carvings, and there's definitely no live, laugh, love signs. No, there are not. But that store does have a big hand-painted wooden sign with two words and two words only on it. No influencers. It's actually a quarter board, which is the three-foot sign you put on the back of your boat to display the boat's name. So why is a store owner putting up a sign banning influencers from the store?

19:06Well, here's what they told the New York Times. I'm tired of my store being used as someone's background for an Instagram video. Basically, Nantucket's become too filled with one-day tourists stopping traffic for a matcha pic in the middle of a cobblestone street. Influencers, the shop owner said, take photos, but they don't buy anything. Hence the new sign, no influencers. We find this highly ironic. The owner clearly doesn't understand what an influencer is trying to do. You gotta influence others to buy things. That's the influencer biz model. It's not about you buying something. You're influencing others.

19:36And that Instagram video is literally a free ad for the store. So yeah, there's a lot of hate coming at this store owner. But pause the pod yetis, because that anti-influencer sign, it has touched a cultural nerve from sea to shining sea. Well, actually, just the Northeast elite publications. New York Times, Wall Street Journal, People Magazine, and New York Magazine. Suddenly, out of nowhere, it's getting all the attention. But here's a plot twist. Another shop across town did the opposite. They've begun embracing influencers. We're talking about Dairy Boy, the venture-backed cult clothing brand trying to become the sexy L.L.

20:08Bean. Founded five years ago by Paige Lawrence, who herself was an influencer before becoming a store owner. And Jack, the first thing this influencer did when she saw this anti-influencer sign? She posted a picture of it. And then added a quarterboard sign of her own in her Dairy Boy shop. Which has also two words on it. Everyone welcome. Her argument? That being an anti-influencer is basically being anti-female. Because most influencers are women. So we had it all up that season. We got one shop saying influencers are not welcome because they don't contribute to the island. But another shop calls that wrong.

20:37She welcomes influencers and thinks that they do help the economy. And on top of all of this, it's right after we just did a story this week on the rise of Minfluencers. Anybody can influence, even if you've got only 500 followers. Almost half of social media budgets are going to people with under 20 ,000 followers, like your buddy Timmy, who's now promoting CeraVe on the weekends. Quick side note, Nick and I did a lot of work prepping the pod last week on Nantucket at Yes. Middle Bar Cafe. And we saw this firsthand. Just about every other customer who walked into the store pulled out their phone first to record a video as they walked into the shop.

21:11So, like, there's very much an invasion of influencers on the island. And full disclosure, while Jack and I were enjoying those double-digit lattes, we may have recorded a couple videos of ourselves promoting the show. Four Winds would hate it if we walked into their store. But still, Yeti, some small sign drama on the tiny Isle of Nantucket is now a nationwide debate. Are influencers cringe or are they cha-ching? Either way, both shops are getting more visitors than ever, which leads to our takeaway. So, Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies running any kind of business? If you want more people to come, tell them not to come.

21:45It's the Barbra Streisand effect. You see, Yetis, the more you try to hide or censor something, the more attention it's just going to get. Like with Barbra Streisand in 2003. Oh, boy. She sued a photographer who had a photo of her Malibu home on a website trying to solve coastal erosion in California. Now, before the lawsuit, only six people had downloaded that picture of her house on the website. But after the lawsuit drew attention to it, 400 ,000 people did. See what happened here, besties? Her attempt to suppress the photo backfired. And now, it's been called the Barbra Streisand effect ever since.

22:17So if you've got a PR debacle that you don't want people talking about, don't try to hide that PR debacle. It will make it worse. Okay, but on the flip side, we're thinking if you do have a clever new product, maybe you get more attention by poorly hiding it. By putting up a no influencer sign, you're obviously going to attract more influencers to your shop, not less. Just like suing someone to suppress a photo nobody knew about is going to attract attention to that photo, not divert it. An Nantucket influencer ban that totally backfired and became a fake ban, real ban? It's the Barbra Streisand effect in 2026.

22:50Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for the real Friday? Jersey Mike Stock traded flat yesterday after raising a billion dollars in their IPO day. Because there will always be demand for sandwiches. AI can't bake bread, and it can't spread mail. For our second story, the war in Iran is escalating by the day. But 21 weeks in, oil prices are pretty chill. Because China cut oil demand 40 % on an oil diet. China is DOPEC, the OPEC for demand. And our third and final story is Nantucket. One store is banning influencers, the other is embracing them. But both are getting more influencers because of the Barbra Streisand effect.

23:24But besties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, Adidas just scored the definition of an own goal with its World Cup earnings report. Okay, last quarter, Adidas saw record revenue because it sold four times more jerseys and two times more balls than the previous World Cup. Remember, Argentina and Spain were Adidas' teams both in the World Cup final. But Adidas spent so much money marketing the World Cup that their profits got crushed. And their stock just fell 12 % on worried it's winning the World Cup but losing the earnings. Second, remember all the hate about Ferrari's new electric vehicle?

23:57Their first electric vehicle, it got awkward out there. A lot of hateful hot takes on the Luce. But Ferrari is now officially sold out of that first electric car. They nailed their sales targets in under two months. We kind of called this in our takeaway. We said if you think this is ugly, it's because you're not the target customer. And the CEO just came out and said he wouldn't change anything about the polarizing Luce car. And finally, it's not just Jersey Mike's who went public yesterday. Reformation, the sustainable clothing brand, did too. Our big question when we last covered Reformation and its 100 jean stores, what was it, Jack?

24:27Will Reformation end up like Patagonia or Auburn's? They both tried to do sustainability. Now, so far, the stock is flat. But if you want us to cover this Reformation IPO, comment crop top in the comments on Spotify right now. We're looking out for it. Now, time for the best fact yet. This one sent in by Marcus all the way over in Greenwich, Connecticut. Get this. On July 23rd, it was the busiest travel day in world history. Not sure if you noticed the TSA lines that day, but yeah, busiest travel day in the history of humankind. Last Thursday, there were 153 ,400 flights that took off across the world, which means more humans were on earth, but not on land than ever in human history.

25:09I think it had something to do with the Odyssey, something to do with the World Cup ending and something to do with you and me being on Nantucket. Odysseus was really real. I mean, it took him a while to get home, Jack. It took him a long time. It took him like 20 years, right? I know. I know. He's still not back. Yetis, you look fantastic today. Jack, you are glowing over there. Hey, what's the weather app saying right now? What do we got? We're seeing like a raindrop and a sunshine. It's like a 70 % chance of 1 % of rain, right? What's going on exactly? I'm canceling my plans. It's over. It's over.

25:40Cancel everything after the pod. Besties, if you haven't yet, buy tickets to our live show. The next one's in San Francisco, and we can't wait to see you there. September 23rd at the Palace of Fine Arts. We'll see you there. Tickets in the episode description or at tboypod.com if you know, you know.

25:59And before we go, a happy birthday to legendary Yeti Amal Abu Al Saud. She has a birthday and a promotion to chief of staff down in Texas. And happy birthday to Ryan Benson, who's having a quarter-life crisis in Portland, Oregon. Oh, you'll get through that, Ryan. Rich Roll in Euclid, Ohio is the ultimate HYH-TBO-Wire and the best birthday yet. Happy 30th birthday to Chase in Cleveland, Ohio. And Sammy C, He's got a birthday in Brooklyn, but a party in Manhattan. Congratulations. Happy birthday to Natalie Harris-McCrow in Connecticut. Marilyn Barmore has got a 75th birthday in Clearwater, Florida.

26:30Congratulations. Happy five-year anniversary to Jose and Rebecca Mateo in Richmond. And Cinead Specht, congrats on the military promotion in San Antonio, and thanks for your service. Oh, and thanks for being a Yeti since the snacks era. Congratulations to Nirakar Shrithcha, who moved in six months ago to a new country, now officially lived in three nationalities. And Javier Sanchez in Hayward, California, And thank you for referring Evelyn to the show and turning her into a Yeti. And to anyone else celebrating something today, make it a T-boy. Celebrate the wins. This is Jack. I own one share of SpaceX and Nick owns more than one.

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