🤳 “Banuary” — Digital Detox Resolutions. Oil’s Chevron-zuela. Sprinkles’ last cupcake. +Dog Ozempic

0:28This is Nick. Chevron Zuela. You already know that the U.S. military captured Venezuela's president over the weekend. So Jack and I are looking at the situation from a CEO's perspective. What is an oil executive's next move? For our second story, Sprinkles Cupcakes, the inventor of the cupcake ATM, suddenly shut down on New Year's Eve. Sprinkles Cupcakes reveals how private equity botched the secret recipe. And our third and final story is the most popular New Year's resolution this year, the digital detox. Or as Jack and I call it, social media banuary. But we think this one's going to last a lot longer than one month.

1:06But yet is before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. I mean, what a mix of stories. Is there a better mix, Jack? There is not. But Nick, you already know about Ozempic. It's popular with all kinds of people. But what you may not know is Ozempic for pets. Because the next frontier for big pharma is weight loss drugs for dogs. That's right. We're talking Ozempic for cats. Or Wigovie for Weimaraners. Or GLPs for puppies and kitties. Here's the context. 60 % of America's dogs are unfortunately overweight or obese. Or Jack, as your veterinarian texted me the other day, your pooch, a little too much padding.

1:44It's so kind that that's how he describes River's physique right now. I love that context he's sprinkled on. So Novo Nordisk is going into the doghouse to get their stock out of the doghouse. Apparently getting a poodle in shape for pool season. Yeah, that could be their next profit puppy. All right, so a Zempic for dogs is a thing, but why stop at just cats and dogs? I mean, Jack and I were brainstorming this. How about hamsters? They're a little husky, aren't they, man? That turtle can look a little tubby now and then. Jack, I once had a pet iguana that ate 43 crickets in a day. I still can't believe you had an iguana in New York City.

2:17I know, Scaly Whaley really let himself go. But yet, when it comes to spending, this story proves it. Puppy. P-U-P-P-Y. People ultimately prioritize pets. Yeah, they do. Jack, let's hit our three stories. Hold still, River. This will all take a second. 15 years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is the norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50 % that's a fat tip. T-Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, because we're ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show.

3:00Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor.

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4:13So yet he's Jack's instituted a new business model for his Airbnb hosting. And Jack, what is it? Here it is. Host equals guest. Yes. I funnel all my revenue from being a host on Airbnb into one bank account and use that same bank account to book travel for myself. And basically it's Jack's host guest bank account for when he hosts and when he's a guest somewhere else. When I lived in the city neck, every time my apartment was available on Airbnb, it would get booked like that. I mean, think about how often are you away from home? You got the bridesmaid, you got the shower, you got the bachelorette, you got the wedding.

4:44That's three weekends away just for one wedding right there. Plus, you got to visit your mother. Naturally. Well, that's a lot of potential hosting that you could be doing on Airbnb. Let someone else stay at your place while you're away. Take that host money and spend it when you're a guest somewhere else. Have a business model like me. If you want to travel more, hosting more is a great way to make it happen financially. Your home might be worth more than you think. Find out how much at Airbnb.com slash host.

5:11For our first story, it's Chevron's whale. Our military campaign in Venezuela comes down to one word, oil. When it comes to oil, everyone's talking about Chevron right now. But we think the much more interesting question is ExxonMobil. Now, Yetis, let's start by sprinkling on some context. The United States has had an arrest warrant out for Nicolas Maduro for alleged crimes, including drug trafficking, for years. But we have arrest warrants out for lots of alleged criminals all over the world, don't we, Nick? Yes, we do, but it is only in Venezuela that the suspect governs the largest oil reserve in the world.

5:46That's right. Venezuela has more oil than any country in the entire world. It's basically the Azkaban of regular unleaded. You know that scene in Willy Wonka with the Chocolate River? Basically like the coastline of Venezuela, but with oil. Except underground. And that's why at the president's press conference on Saturday, his administration mentioned the word oil 25 times. That's more than they said the word drug, crime, narco, or trafficking. Combined. The president also said billions of dollars six times in the press conference on Saturday, and he explicitly called on U.S. oil companies to enter Venezuela, redevelop their oil industry, and make money that will benefit both the Venezuelan and the American people.

6:25To reference Willy Wonka again, basically a golden ticket opportunity. But Jack, let us pull up to the pump and sprinkle on some crude context here, please. Because our American history with Venezuelan oil actually goes back one full century. Get this, besties. Venezuela is one and a half times bigger than the state of Texas, but it has more oil under it than any other country on earth. Everyone in OPEC is jealous of Venezuela. So naturally, ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, most of the world's big oil companies began drilling in Venezuela as long as 100 years ago. In fact, during World War II, Venezuela actually became the largest exporter of oil on Earth.

7:04It was the silent ally of the Allied powers. But starting in 1976, Venezuela began nationalizing their oil industry. And what did that look like exactly, Jack? It basically means the government took control of all the private oil rigs by force. Basically in an I am the captain now situation. They forced American oil companies to become minority partners with Venezuela's government-owned oil companies. But only one U.S. oil company accepted that offer. It was Chevron. Chevron. So here is the question today. Did Venezuela steal our oil? As President Trump said over the weekend, well, Venezuela's constitution says that any oil under Venezuelan soil belongs to Venezuela.

7:45But oil companies are saying, uh, our contracts were broken. Yeah, that is stealing our oil. And you took our oil drilling equipment against our will. So feels like stealing to ExxonMobil. And that is why American oil companies took Venezuela to international court years ago. ExxonMobil and other oil companies actually won that arbitration case, but Venezuela hasn't paid the$14 billion plus that they owe U.S. oil companies for seizing all those oil rigs. Instead of pressing the cha-ching button right now, Jack, we can just fast forward to today, because this week, those oil facilities are being denationalized or privatized again.

8:22And President Trump wants America's big oil companies to book one-way tickets to Caracas and start drill baby drill down there. And that is why you saw Chevron stock jump 6 % yesterday, and oil refining and oil field companies, they rose even more. They're pumped to be able to pump up down in Venezuela again. Which leads to our big question today. If you are in the seat of an oil CEO, what is your next move? Because it's not as easy as you expect. But it is our takeaway. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over in the oil industry? The risks of investing in Venezuela right now massively outweigh the rewards.

8:59And here's the thing about Venezuela taking over their oil industry. They actually did a terrible job of it. Horrible job. Venezuela's government actually lost 80 % of their own oil production when they were running the thing. 20 years ago, they produced six times more oil than they do today. Venezuela's oil industry is a mess of looted pipes, abandoned rigs. It's been mismanaged. It's corrupt. It's not a good scene. Get this. Experts say it would cost$100 billion to fix Venezuela's oil industry, and that would take years to do. So if you're the CEO of ExxonMobil, would you approve a$10 billion investment plan to develop Venezuela's oil right now?

9:38Well, Jack, President Trump says American companies that invest in Venezuela will be rewarded, but the political risk is huge. The political risk, I mean, this is an already unstable country that now has a power vacuum. Who's in charge? And power vacuums, they suck. It's unclear who's in charge of Venezuela. The U.S. says we're running the country, but so does Venezuela's socialist vice president who recently became president. The one certainty in Venezuela right now is that there is oil, but the cost, the timeline, the geopolitics, all of that is still uncertain. Political risk is basically, is there rule of law and will my profits remain my profits?

10:12In Venezuela, that's a huge question. Sebasti's added all up and Trump is asking Exxon to invest in Venezuela. But because of the political risk, we think they won. For our second story, Sprinkles Cupcakes. Famous for inventing the cupcake ATM suddenly shut down on New Year's Eve. Every store closed without warning. Did you pause in that headline to compose yourself because you're so sad about this headline? Too soon, Jack. Nick's a huge fan of Cupcakes Yeti's, and this one hits him personally. But Sprinkles Cupcakes isn't just a victim of fads in food. It's also a victim of finance, too. Yeti's forget SoulCycle Greek yogurt or a dozen different direct-to-consumer mattress brands advertising on the subway.

10:58No product defined 2010 millennial living like the cupcake craze. Yeah, a decade ago, you couldn't walk your cockapoo past Carnegie Hill without hitting a cupcake shop or two. They were everywhere. Even Wall Street got hooked. I didn't realize this, but in 2011, Crumbs, the cupcake company - You mean cupcake? Yes, I mean the cupcake company. They went public on Wall Street. It was a$66 million Pure Play buttercream IPO. But the inventor of the gourmet cupcake shock was actually Los Angeles-based Sprinkles. Sprinkles was founded by an ex-investment banker who traded out her spreadsheets for baking sheets in 2005.

11:37Candice Nelson, and she positioned her cupcakes as a premium product. Basically, Louis Vuitton of the good stuff. Oh, I was going to say the Shake Shack of cupcakes. Because a Shake Shack burger, it's expensive, but it's delicious, just like a Sprinkles cupcake. One red velvet cupcake from Sprinkles, that would set you back six bucks right now. And at its peak, Sprinkles had 50 cupcake shop locations, plus 25 more standalone cupcake ATMs. I'm sorry, that sounds like a profit puppy, Jack. Jack, please explain what is happening there. Sprinkles did not invent the cupcake, but they did invent the cupcake ATM.

12:14What we are saying is that Sprinkles' greatest innovation was not the cupcake itself, but in the way you purchase the product. Here's the story. When the CEO, Candice Nelson, became pregnant, she had late-night food cravings, as pregnant women do. And sometimes their husbands. True. But she couldn't get those baked goods she craved at midnight. So in 2012, Sprinkles invents the 24-7 ATM for cupcakes in Beverly Hills, holding 800 cakes baked daily. And it became the highest grossing part of their business. Yeah, the labor costs were next to nothing, and Magnolia wouldn't dare pull stunt like that.

12:47Plus, they expanded the purchase range. Like, forget the late night burrito after the bar. Jack, head up to 58th Street. We could mack on some coconut cupcakes. I can tell you're saying that from experience, Nick. Guilty as charged, but the cupcake ATM led to a huge publicity and ultimately an acquisition of the Sprinkles brand. Candice sold her company to private equity later the same year that they launched those ATMs. But here's the news. 13 years later, just last week, Sprinkles suddenly shut down on New Year's Eve. The founder posted a TikTok about how sad she was, employees are now without jobs, and fans like Nick are going to have to go to Whole Foods to get their cupcake or something.

13:23That's why we had to cover this story. Now, partially besties, as Jack and I analyze the situation, this is because of the three Fs of fads that we've warned you about. Fashion, fitness, and food. Those are the three industries most driven by fads. The trends that end. And the trend in sweets right now, it's not cupcakes, it's coffee. Sugary lattes are the top sellers at Starbucks and Dutch Bros, and dirty soda sales are hitting all-time highs right now. Cupcake demand, it's also been replaced by cookie demand. Crumble is the new sprinkles. Demand for sweets didn't disappear. It pivoted. But besties, there are two other letters to blame for Sprinkles collapse, and those two letters are P and E.

14:02So Jack, can you please link the takeaway? I'm sorry, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Sprinkles? Private equity only works when it follows its own recipe. Yeah, it is. There are a lot of angry cupcake consumers out there right now blaming the private equity firm for Sprinkles demise. Rightfully so, but we should point out, PE firms, they all have the same goal. Acquire a struggling business, cut costs, and improve the marketing so that they can boost profits and sell the business seven to ten years later for a huge profit. In our financial experience, there is also a recipe. Private equity applies.

14:37They find industries with sustainable and predictable economics. Like car washes. PE firms love car wash chains right now because car wash chains have sustainable and predictable economics. But cupcakes don't. No, cupcakes, think about it. It's a one-off occasion-based treat, not a repeat, reliable, dependable purchase. They don't fit this recipe, and the baking industry is not predictable. Like we said, fads drive food. So the sprinkles shut down, it's not just a story about a cupcake craze that became a cupcake crash. No, no, no, no, it is also about how private equity only works when it sticks with its own recipe.

15:13Now, a quick word from our sponsor. Top hats, baseball hats, Von Dutch hats. We wear so many hats on this podcast. Honestly, we're not great at all of them. No, we've been avoiding hiring someone to wear those hats instead of us, especially the Von Dutch one, because hiring and training can take forever. Well, I'm proud to say that we are hiring right now at T-Boy, and this is a job for Indeed Sponsored Jobs. Because sponsored jobs posted directly on Indeed are 95 % more likely to report a hire than non-sponsored jobs. So besties spend less time searching and more time actually interviewing candidates who check all your boxes.

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16:40card, checking account, brokerage account, even our mortgages, live balances updated in real time. I'm still paying down my mortgage and Monarch gives me the visibility and tools to do it. You can use it too. Create savings buckets and financial goals in Monarch. Set yourself up for financial success this year. Are you familiar with the Sankey diagram? I had no idea what it was, Jack. Well, once you see it, you can't unsee it. It's brilliant. And Monarch visually shows you what you're spending. And we did not make up that term. Your investment portfolio, Monarch compares it to the S &P 500 for you.

17:07Set yourself up for financial success in 2026 with Monarch, the all-in-one tool that makes proactive money management simple all year long. Use code TBOY at Monarch.com for half off your first year. That's 50 % off your first year at Monarch.com with code TBOY. For our third and final story, the most popular New Year's resolution this year, It's not dry January. It's social media banuary. We think 2026 is a tipping point against social media, and the co-founders of Twitter and Pinterest are actually betting on it. All right, now, Jack, in order for us to tell this story, you want to start with a full disclosure.

17:44This is Jack, and I have proudly found a way to reduce my social media scrolling. What is it? What is it? Open up your iPhone, go into the settings, and search grayscale. Basically, make your phone black and white so that the real world compared to your phone is better. You can still scroll Instagram if you want, but the real world is more beautiful than anything on your phone. I thought you were going to say like, you only go on Instagram doing a wall squat. So like you can never scroll for more than two minutes. That's an aggressive strategy that I like as well. Black and white, grayscale. Jack, another idea I had the other day was every time you open a social media app, you have to move$10 from your checking account to your savings account.

18:21I like that. There's other ones. I wish there was an app that made me just wait five seconds before clicking the Instagram app. Because I bet in those five seconds, I'd be like, I shouldn't be doing this. And I'd shut it down. You're an Enneagram one. I could see that working. But besties, for the rest of us, we haven't reduced our social media consumption, have we? Let's be honest. Yeah. And yet nobody in the world is saying, I should use more TikTok this year. I need an extra hit of Instagram this year. They're saying the opposite, which leads to this hero stat. A survey by Opal found that 33 % of Americans are trying to reduce screen time this year.

18:52which is larger than the 28 % of Americans who want to lose weight this year. Besties, sit down, stand up, and sit back down again. More people want to lose clickbait than lose body weight. We've never seen losing weight not be the top New Year's resolution, but this year it's not. Dry January is now digital dry January. Digital detox is the new Botox. But we gotta say, to all those trying to digital detox this year, good luck. Yeah. Because the smartest minds in Silicon Valley have made social media incredibly addictive, Which leads to the wild line from Biz Stone and Evan Sharp, the co-founders of Twitter and Pinterest.

19:27They said this week that social media apps, including the ones that they co-founded, have wrought, and I quote, terrible devastation of the human mind and heart over the last 15 years. Which is why Biz Stone and Evan Sharp just launched Tangle, an anti-social media app. App. Right? Yeah. The Twitter and Pinterest co-founders already raised$29 million for their San Francisco-based tech company. Now, so far, Tangle is invite only. Cough, cough, still waiting on that one. But it is focused as an app on intention. As in intentional living. Like a digital yoga guru intention kind of a thing. As in, did you intend to sit on the toilet for the last 15 minutes swiping?

20:07I don't think you did intend. Because this app is going to send you daily push notifications asking, what's your intention today? And it will let you designate friends who can digitally cheer you on as you pursue your life of intentionality. I've got to pause the pod for a sec, Jack. So ironically, this is an app to get you off other apps. And yet it has a social element. So it's a social media app opposed to social media apps. So I guess the business analogy we would use here is like, this is the vape to cigarettes but for social media. Or the nicotine patches. There's nicotine in there, but it helps you get off the worst thing.

20:43The worst version of nicotine. Now, besties, we have seen apps like this before. You have too, but none of them have worked. Sadly. Despite a valiant effort, be real is no more. So in our opinion, the only way to fix our social media addiction is the same way we fixed our cigarette addiction. With government policy. Which leads to our takeaway. Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over in social media? It's a prediction, actually. Prepare for social media banuary, but all year long and worldwide. Yetis, as Jack and I study trends across countries over the last year, we expect social media bans to happen worldwide throughout 2026.

21:22This past fall, Australia became the first country to ban social media for teens. In 2025, school districts across America experimented with phone bans, largely to success. Because the data is clear. Especially for teens, reducing social media use reduces depression, reduces anxiety, and reduces insomnia. Based on those data points, we think the floodgates are now open. Action is being taken worldwide to regulate social media for the first time. In countries, in U.S. states, maybe even by the U.S. federal government, we will see regulation for social media like we finally saw regulation for cigarettes.

21:57Besties, it's not just a social media banuary. We think social media regulation is going to happen across the world all year long. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for today's pod? Based on Saturday's press conference, it appears our aims in Venezuela are all about oil. So should Exxon invest billions in Venezuela? Because of the political risk ROI, we think they won't. For our second story, Sprinkles Cupcakes is sadly no more. It shut down last week as Sweet Tooth pivoted from cupcakes to coffee and cookies. Also because a chain of cupcake shops just ain't in the P.E. recipe book.

22:36And our third and final story is the digital detox. That's the New Year's resolution of the year, even more than physical health goals. Call it social media banuary. Our prediction, regulation, is finally coming to your feeds. But besties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, congratulations to Warren Buffett on your first week of retirement. Warren, legendary Yeti, we see you listening, is no longer the CEO of Berkshire Hathaway. The legendary investor stepped down officially on December 31st. But Nick, in his 60 years running Berkshire, stock in his company rose 6 ,100 ,000%.

23:14Not too shabby. Besties, this 95-year-old threw all his weight behind the new CEO, Greg Abel, who probably threw him a nice cupcake party. Second, insider trading happened again on Polymarket in a big way, this time for the Nicolas Maduro arrest. Get this, just before the US military seized Venezuela's president, someone made bets on Polymarket that that would actually happen, making$400 ,000 in profit in one single day. The prediction sites actually encourage insider trading, which are not illegal because we don't have laws about prediction markets yet. Yeah, it's unfair and it hurts the integrity of the predictions markets, but according to Polymarket and others, it gets the truth out quicker, even if it's an insider advantage.

23:57And finally, get this,$400 ,000 worth of lobster has been stolen. Not just any lobster, Costco lobster. Yeah, those are big lobsters too. According to Massachusetts police, thieves dressed up as a legitimate truck company and then signed and just took the lobbies away. But then instead of delivering it to Costco in Illinois, they disappeared. They either sold them on the black market or are eating a whole bunch of lobster right now. Yeah, you may have a dirty lobster roll right now. Oh, and just like that heist movie, The Town, it all happened. just outside Boston. Now time for the best fact yet to kick off the year.

24:33This one from Dr. Harold Hahn from lovely Berkeley, California. Push and plug. Hello, Yadis. This is Harold. I want to share a trend that's happening around us right now. With alcohol consumption going down, cannabis-infused beverages are entering the mainstream market. For example, in Minnesota, within two years of this product being available, it has accounted for over 15 % of the total alcohol sales. And experts say this category is the fastest growing category in beverage ever. And you can find those products in states like Tennessee, South Carolina, Alabama, in alcohol stores. So give it a try.

25:11Thank you. I didn't tell you this, Jack, when I went to a holiday party in Marin, and I drank like two of these incredible sparkling beverages there, and then I found out afterwards they were canned cannabis beverages. I had no idea. I know. And you're such a lightweight. How'd you handle it? It's a self-drive to Tesla home. Yetis, you look fantastic for T-Boy Tuesday. And if you have got the best fact yet, just like Dr. Han graciously sent us, we love getting your voicemails. We love getting them on the pod. We have a simple form to fill out. There's a link in the episode description. We want your voice on the pod.

25:42Send us your best fact yet. Also, new year, new you. If you want to get a shout out on the pod, birthday, anniversary, bar mitzvah, we love getting those in. And Jack, how do you get those on the show? Same thing. A link in the episode description to a form. We keep it simple for you. In the meantime, Jack and I will see you, as always, right here on Tomorrow's Show.

26:05And before we go, a shout out to Yeti's Lindsey Tillengast and Damian Zepeda, who just got engaged in Denver, Colorado. They debrief T-Boy episodes every night. Never missed a T-Boy, but right now, they've got the greatest ring ever on that finger. And happy fifth anniversary to Logan and Haley, who also just got engaged. Plus, Logan just got a promotion. Guys, send us the ring picks. We're so pumped for you. Happy birthday to Ubby Shake in Boston, Massachusetts, who introduced the show to his daughter. They're both longtime Yetis. And Monty Dent's turning 60 years old in Highlands Ranch, Colorado.

26:38Happy birthday, Monty. Happy birthday to Matt DeVries from Crown Point, Indiana, who had baby number two this year. Congratulations. And a happy birthday to Bobby Trivett from lovely Manassas, Virginia, celebrating the best one yet. And to anyone else who's celebrating something today, make it a T-boy. Celebrate the wins.

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