🥃 “Bourbon Bullish” — Invest in Whiskey? Netflix conquers comedy. SpaceX & Anthropic. +Mother’s Day all-time-low

0:00This is Nick. This is Jack. It's Friday, the real Friday, May 8th and today's pod is the best one yet, this is a T-boy. The top three pop business news stories you need to know today. I mean, you're at the coolest place in capitalism, Jack. We got three fantastic stories. Should we hit the show? For our first story, Netflix is a joke. That's Netflix's comedy festival, and it has completely taken over Los Angeles for the third time. Because the number one profit puppy in media right now is laughter. For our second story, Anthropic signed a huge deal to rent compute from SpaceX AI. Because the enemy of Elon's enemy is a data center.

0:40And our third and final story, there's never been a better time to invest in a specialty bottle of bourbon. Besties, is whiskey the new NVIDIA or did we just drink too much? But yet he's before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. I mean, like we said, best mix in the business. I love what we got going today, Jack. T minus 48 hours until the mother of all American holidays. Mother's Day, baby. America's floral Super Bowl. Mother's Day, the annual stress test of America's telecommunications industry. Always call your mother pasta pod. But there is a big trend that Jack and I must update you on immediately.

1:14Breakfast in bed is dead. Breakfast in bed is dead. Besties, get this. New data shows that we are in a breakfast in bed recession. The data's from OpenTable, so they're biased. But they say that only 4 % of American moms want breakfast in bed this Sunday. That's right. and only 4 % of moms are willing to risk the maple syrup on the mattress. Now, we know you prepped the pancakes. We know you whipped up the waffle batter already. But a vast majority of moms are paranoid that yogurt is getting on the duvet. Honey, watch out! And this holiday is not about you, it's about her. So you're gonna have to just put that batter away and save it for another day.

1:47Okay, but the result of this phenomenon, as breakfast in bed hit all-time lows, Mother's Day brunch out has hit all-time highs. According to OpenTable, 12 p.m. on Mother's Day is the most in-demand lunch reservation of the entire year. And when mama goes out, she goes out big these days. She goes huge. The check sizes jumped 32 % on Mother's Day. The wine orders surged 56%. Lobster sales jumped 90%. Steak sales jumped 93%. Add it all up, Besties Mother's Day brunch has become a boozy binge that makes St. Paddy look sober. Although we would have cleaned up those crumbs on the mattress and cleaned the sheets.

2:23I mean, we like making popovers in the morning. Is that a correct? That is happy Mother's Day. to all those who celebrate. Now go get her a reservation, a ribeye, and a bottle of Brunello. Jack, let's hear it. Three stories. Fifteen years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm that had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is the norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. Fifty percent, that's a fat tip. T-Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, cause we ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show.

2:58Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor.

3:09Monarch. All right, Yetis, you're never going to be able to guess how many accounts Jack has linked to Monarch. 31. Are there even that many, like, financial products out there? Hey, Yetis, he's got credit cards, checking accounts, brokerage accounts, retirement accounts. 529 college savings accounts for each kid and my nieces and nephews, Nick. Okay, I'm rounding up. Does that get us to 31? Where are we? Don't forget my mortgage, my house, the car I own. They're all linked and all their values in Monarch. You see, besties, Jack actually linked everything to Monarch one year ago during a little bit of spring cleaning.

3:39Until I used Monarch, I had a very messy, very chaotic spreadsheet, but now they're clean, synced, and automatic. Basically, Jack went full Marie Kondo on his finances, and he did it with Monarch, which can do your financial spring cleaning for you. One dashboard that gets your entire financial life organized. No more clutter, no more mess, no more scattered logins. Just logins, investments, property, and more all in one place. Get your first year at Monarch for half off just 50 bucks with promo code T-Boy. Use code T-B-O-Y at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just$50. That's 50 % off your first year at Monarch.com with code T-Boy.

4:15Zip Recruiter. Yetis, the devil wears Prada. The reason Miranda Priestly was perfect as editor-in-chief of Runway, it wasn't just her skills, it was her passion. That cerulean monologue? Oh, that was so good. Silk runs through her veins, Nick. Her blood type is cashmere, Jack. If you're hiring, you want a candidate who's passionate about your role. But you can't get that insight from a resume unless you post your job in ZipRecruiter. And now you can try it for free at ZipRecruiter.com slash tboy. ZipRecruiter's powerful matching technology finds qualified candidates quickly. And ZipRecruiter has a new feature that shows you the most interested qualified candidates first.

4:48So you meet the right people faster. Instead of waiting for someone to find your job listing, ZipRecruiter does the finding for you, searching through its database of millions of job seekers. And one of them is your Miranda. Find her before someone else does with ZipRecruiter. Find candidates who really want your job on ZipRecruiter. Four out of five employers who post on ZipRecruiter get a qualified candidate in the first day. Try it for free at ZipRecruiter.com slash T-B-O-Y. That's ZipRecruiter.com slash T-Boy. Meet your match on ZipRecruiter.

5:19For our first story The Netflix is a joke comedy fest Has taken over every Los Angeles Performance venue in the city All this week Because Bravo's winning reality TV We all agree on that But Netflix is winning reality comedy TV Alright, so Jack If we're going to tell this story So a rabbi, a priest, and a duck Walk into a bar Are you going to cancel us with the punchline, Nick? So besties, here's the deal Netflix loves stand-up comedy because it's so low cost to produce. So in 2012, Netflix planted their flag in the comedy genre once and for all. 2012, the Bill Burr special explaining how to win arguments with your girlfriend on stage, a lot of laughs, streamed it all on Netflix.

6:00Ten years later, after stand-up specials with Dave Chappelle, Aziz Ansari, Ali Wong, and a bunch of other comedians, Netflix started to do it live. That's right, 2022. Netflix is a joke, the comedy festival. Every two years since, it's been the biggest comedy fest in the world. And this year's event started on Monday with 475 shows at 45 different venues in Los Angeles. Ending this Sunday with a roast of Kevin Hart, where Nikki Glaser is going to tell us how we've got to... Wait, is Nikki Glaser hosting it again? Well, we got to hand it to Kevin, Jack, because he can't reach. That's why we got to hand it to Kevin.

6:32But we should point out, from a business perspective, Netflix is double dipping here. Oh, they are double dipping because Netflix sells very expensive live show tickets at a profit and streams all that content on Netflix later on. But it's also sort of a triple dip, isn't it, Nick? Because Netflix's content of filming one dude in one take on stage, that costs less than a Star Wars scene to make. Each one of these stand-up specials, Netflix just has to pay a comedian, the crew, and the electricity bill. It's unbelievably low budget. But pause the pod for a sec, Jack, because it appears Netflix is actually quadruple dipping on these comedy specials.

7:09Because this year, the Netflix is a joke comedy fest has a reality TV show about comedy. Besties, here's the important point to keep in the back of your heads. Comedy and reality TV are the best business models and content, and we'll get to that in a second. But Nick, to tell the rest of this story, we're going to have to phone a friend, and that friend is Clay Aiken. Yeah, why don't you sprinkle on a couple notes of context, please. American Idol was the number one show in America on TV for eight straight years, starting in the year 2003. And that model inspired a bunch of spinoffs. Like, we've had an American Idol for fashion.

7:42America's Next Top Model. We've had an American Idol for food. Beat Bobby Flay. And we've even had one for business people. The Apprentice. So Netflix is seizing this opportunity to make an American Idol, but for stand-up comedians. It's called Funny AF, and it's hosted by Kevin Hart. And viewers get to vote for the winning funny guy or the winning funny gal. So like American Idol discovered Kelly Clarkson, Carrie Underwood, Jennifer Hudson, Funny AF is going to discover the next Dave Chappelle, and the winner gets their own Netflix stand-up special. Finale happened live on stage. It was all this week at Netflix is a joke, the comedy fest.

8:14The reason we're impressed with this Funny AF concept isn't because of Kevin Hart's universal hilarity. Or that The Rock eats Kevin Hart for breakfast. We're impressed with Funny AF because of the business model. So the rabbi and the priest are talking to the bartender. And then the duck says, Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Netflix? The higher the production budget, the lower the stock price. Yetis, Wall Street doesn't reward artistic achievement like the Academy does at the Oscars. Wall Street rewards profit achievement. They wish there was a Golden Globe for best margins. Bravo is the most profitable piece of Comcast NBCUniversal because reality TV is super cheap to produce.

8:54YouTube and Meta are$5 and$2 trillion companies because the content is user-generated. You give it to them for free. Now, Netflix does pretty much everything, but they specialize in comedy. And now they're doing podcasts too, because both comedy and podcasts are cheap to produce. But Jack, on the other hand, we've got Disney. And Mickey's content, that is incredibly expensive, man. Disney's blockbuster theatrical films and their sports rights that they put on DSPN, those delight audiences, but they squeeze profits and eventually sink the stock. So, Basties, if you want to understand who's winning in media, especially in the stock market, simply look at the cost of the content.

9:31The higher the production budget, the lower the stock price. If the credits are long, the profits are short.

9:40For our second story, SpaceX just signed a giant deal with Anthropic to rent Elon's data centers. Never saw that throuple happening. Because the enemy of Elon's enemy is actually anthropic. But the bigger story here, Nick, is that the entire internet is about to have a busy signal. But before we had those busy stories, we got a salacious story. The Elon Altman trial just finished its second week, and each day has just been wilder than the last one. Here's the latest. Elon Musk was a sperm donor for the twin sister of a board member of OpenAI, the same twin sister whom Elon had four babies with.

10:18But back to the business story here, Yetis. If you recently started using a chatbot, chances are it's Claude. It's not Grok, it's not ChatGPT, it's Claude. And the data says it, and this story proves it, because it starts with an insane statistic. Anthropics CEO Dario Amadei announced this week that people are using Claude, Anthropics chatbot, 80 times more than they did last year. Sit down, stand up, and are you hallucinating that number, Jack? Anthropic had forecast 10 times more growth than last year, but their extremely ambitious growth plan was extremely too cautious. It was 80 times more, and the reason for this, well, it's because people aren't using chatbots, people are using agents.

10:59Sure, people are still asking one-off questions to a chatbot, like, hey Claude, what's this thing on my thigh? Do I need to see a doctor? But a majority of compute is work being done in the background by your AI agent doing a bunch of tasks. You're checking your email, your AI agent is doing the project that you don't want to do. The most popular AI agent? It's Claude Code or Claude Cowork, a vibe-coding AI that boomed in popularity since its big update in February. That's why Anthropic is reportedly worth more than OpenAI now. $900 billion. Anthropic might even beat Sam Altman to IPO later this fall.

11:31But yeah, here's what Jack and I find fascinating. Just like that viral bagel restaurant with the line out the door, When people begin using your tech product 80 times more, you need more space. In this case, you need more data center space. And here's the news. Anthropic is now renting the biggest data center in the world. They're renting SpaceX's Colossus. It's actually not called SpaceX anymore, Nick. Good point, Jack. It's formally called SpaceX AI. You see, when SpaceX bought XAI earlier this year, two of Elon's companies, they bought their giant data center in Memphis, Tennessee as well.

12:04That giant data center in Memphis, Tennessee is filled with NVIDIA's chips. Like Oompa Loompas in a chocolate factory, that many chips. The Colossus data center in Memphis has 220 ,000 NVIDIA GPUs, which cost$30 ,000 each. We're talking 7 billion bucks of chips, baby. And now they're being used by the Claude chatbot, not by SpaceX AI. It's more than a lift. Besties, this surprising deal between Anthropic and SpaceX, it really reveals three things to Jack and I. The first thing it tells us is that Elon's AI chatbot, Grok, isn't getting much traction. After all, it has extra compute it can rent out to a competitor.

12:41The second thing it tells us, AI is not a bubble. It's the opposite. Demand is beyond analysts' wildest expectations. And the third thing this story tells us is that Elon's enemy is Sam Altman. Dario's enemy is also Sam Altman. And since the enemy of my enemy is my friend, Dario is now friends with Elon. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over in AI? AI is causing a busy signal, but for the entire internet. Yetis, if you're a free chatbot user, you've hit a paywall at some point where it says, you've reached your limit, try again in a few hours. But this week, even paid users of Cloud have been hitting limits because of a shortage in compute.

13:19You see, Cloud doesn't have enough data centers to process all the work that users are doing with its AI. The result is the equivalent of a busy signal. You try to use AI, but you can't. It tells you to try again later. And now Claude's busy signal was short-lived and ended thanks to Anthropik's new deal with SpaceX. But it's only a matter of time before that compute gets maxed out and there's another busy signal. And since AI competes with the same data center space as our regular internet does for everything, even like recording this podcast. Here's what we're saying. During moments of spikes in AI use, regular websites and apps, those could stop working too.

13:54If our podcast pauses, blame the AI. Yeti's this compute shortage, it's unlike any other shortage because it's invisible. but we can't stockpile, we can't hoard it. Think of it like a busy signal, but potentially for the entire internet. Now, a quick word from our sponsor. Dell. Yetis, Dell PCs with Intel inside are built for the moments that matter. For the moments you plan and the ones you don't. Yeah, built for the busy days that turn into all night, order food at 2 a.m. study sessions. You know them. The moment you're working from a cafe and realize every outlet is taken. And the times you're deep in your flow and the absolute last thing you need is an auto update thrown off your momentum.

14:32That's why Dell builds tech that adapts to the way that you actually work. Built with a long-lasting battery so you're not scrambling for the closest outlet. And built-in intelligence that makes updates around your schedule not in the middle of it. They don't build tech for tech's sake, they build it for you. Find technology built for the way you work at dell.com slash dellpcs. Built for you.

15:19Yeah. No needles needed. You see, it's extremely hard for me to eat some Doritos without eating the entire bag, but if I were on GLP-1s, it would kill that craving, wouldn't it, Nick? That's right. So through HIMSS, everything happens online. You'll connect with a licensed provider who will determine if your treatment is right for you. If prescribed, your medication is delivered right to your door, no insurance necessary. So besties ready to reach your goals, visit HIMSS.com slash tboy to get a personalized, affordable plan that gets you. That's HIMSS.com slash tboy. HIMSS.com slash tboy. Weight loss by HIMSS is not available in all 50 states.

15:52Wagovi is the registered trademark of Novo Nordisk AS. To get started and learn more, including important safety information, Wagovi clinical study information, and restrictions, visit HIMSS.com. For our third and final story, this one's wild. But besties, it may be the best time in history to invest in whiskey. Here's why everyone is bullish on collecting high-end whiskey bottles right now. Yeah, it is the great liquor lull. The sober surge. We've told you all about it. Alcohol sales are down across the liquor cabinet. The only shots Gen Z is taking are screenshots, Nick. They traded Negronis for like colostrum serums these days.

16:30Because wellness is in, Ozempic has cut your Cabernet cravings, and there's new competition for whiskey in the form of cannabis. Plus, for American-made alcohol, sales are down even more because of the trade war. Yeah, the bourbon boycotts. We've been seeing them. whiskey exports to the European Union fell 35 % last year. To Canada, they dropped 57 % last year. All as retaliation for Trump's tariffs. Add it all up, besties, and American whiskey just had its worst year since Prohibition. Whiskey sales in America fell 19 % last year. That is brutal for the industry. Maker's mark missing the mark.

17:03But besties, this is what Jack and I find wild. While whiskey demand just hit an all-time low, whiskey supply just hit an all-time high. And for the industry, it's a case of worst timing imaginable. It's the worst. And it all goes back 15 years to millennial hipsters. Basically, when Nick and I graduated from college. We live in the East Village, and during the 2010s, millennials loved for craft. Everything was driving a bourbon boom. We were part of it. This is when the IPA, like craft beer trend happened. We were also very kind of like snobby with our liquor choices too. Yeah, you know that guy.

17:39You know your buddy, Timmy. And then COVID accelerated this brown liquor surge. We were stuck at home. We wanted to do DIY cocktails because we were bored. So we hit a pandemic peak. Brown Foreman, the owner of Jack Daniels, hit an all-time high in 2020. The stock quintupled that decade. So in response to all that demand, whiskey companies increased supply. More barrels, more distilleries, more whiskey. According to U.S. Treasury data, American production of whiskey hit a record in 2019, 218 million gallons. But that record was eclipsed by a new record in 2023 of 299 million barrels, a 37 % pop.

18:16So in 2023, America produced more whiskey than ever before in history. But here's the thing, bourbon must age three years before it becomes sellable. So Jack, I'm checking the calendar here and all those pandemic barrels are finally coming to the market. Now, 2023 plus three years, that's right now. And that makes for some horrible timing. All-time high supply meets all-time low demand. All-time record high supply of whiskey is hitting the market, just as demand is at an all-time low. I believe that's what economists call an ugly couple right there, Jack. The result is cheap, but delicious. Blue chip whiskey bottles right now are selling at bargain level prices.

18:59All right, Jack, I've been all over the auction sites. Can I sprinkle on some context for you? Go ahead. Stag, they're 15 year, it was like 1500 bucks two years ago. it's now selling for$700. 50 % off, not more than 50 % off. You know, Willits has got the funky bottle with a long stem, 900 bucks a bottle. They're going for 60 % off right now. And Nick, where are you getting this data from? Whiskey auction sites? I can't disclose my sources, Jack, because another one that I'm almost scared to tell you, but Pappy Van Winkle, the most famous 15-year whiskey of all. I rarely see it for anything less than 2000 bucks, like 1200 bucks a bottle I saw the other day.

19:33So this feels kind of like the stock market COVID collapse of 2020. All of a sudden, prices of everything are down 40%. So Jack and I got to ask, are we buying the dip? Are we buying the sip? If you buy the dip, can you still sip? And then do you put that dip on your lip? Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies wondering about alternative assets? This could be the perfect time to invest in a bottle of whiskey. Oh, besties, we saved the best for last. Here's the plot twist. due to low demand right now. Whiskey makers are cutting supplies to zero. They're turning off the distilleries. Literally.

20:07Which means in three years, we'll probably have the opposite market problem that we have today. In three years, we'll have not enough whiskey coming onto the market. So here's the thesis. If sobriety is a fad and people come back to alcohol again, then in a few years, the bourbon you bought today for 50 % off, you might be able to sell for 200 % more. That's why, according to Bloomberg, whiskey collectors are now trying to time this market bottom. On the hope that in five years, that 500 bottle of Blanton you bought will be worth five digits. Besties, is vintage makers mark the next NVIDIA? Buy low, sell top shelf.

20:40Analysts could be wrong, and this whole thesis could be wrong, and the blue chip bourbon that you splurged on might never appreciate. Okay, but Jack, then worst case, you don't sell that bottle, you save it for a special occasion. Your son's graduation in a few years. I'm really compelled by this thesis, Nick. You see, unlike a stock, you can still open a whiskey and drink up the dividends So if you buy a collector's bottle of bourbon right now It might appreciate to something you could sell for in the future And worst case, you give it to your son when he graduates from college as a graduation gift It's a fun night or two Basties, this is not investment advice But we did just place a few bids Great, great Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us to get us into the weekend?

21:25The Netflix is a joke festival is finishing this Sunday in LA. And the punchline is that Netflix is quadruple dipping. Oh, who's winning in media? The lower the production budget, the higher the stock price. The longer the credits, the shorter the profits. For our second story, Anthropic is renting data centers from Elon's SpaceX. Sam Altman hates everything about that. Shortage of compute, it's like a busy signal. But for the whole internet. And our third and final story. With bourbon demand low and supply high, prices of specialty bottles of whiskey are at a discount right now. This could be a historic buy signal, but for bourbon.

22:01But besties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, this earnings season has been an absolute banger so far. Record high profit margins. Of the S &P 500 companies that have reported so far, the profit margin is on average 15%. And those profit margins, they're more than double the profit per dollar of sales from 2010. And it's all driven by AI hype. Warn Iran, it doesn't affect tech companies, hence the S &P is at record highs. And second, Shake Shack stock plummeted 30 % yesterday, a worst day for the Shack since the soggy fry drama of 2018. And it was caused by a strange reason, according to the CEO.

22:41They blamed the weather. Yeah, in the earnings call, we noticed they said the word weather 12 times. blizzards and wildfires specifically. That's what they called out. And finally, Kalshi raised money at a$22 billion valuation this week. The controversy of prediction markets only drives their valuation higher. And that means this prediction market stock has doubled since December, which had doubled since just last October. And it makes Kalshi worth$10 billion more than DraftKings. Yeah, that's the plot twist. Investors love this not-regulated sports betting platform more than the regular regulated sports betting platforms.

23:16because the not regulated one doesn't get taxed either. So it's kind of a no-brainer if you think about it. Now time for the best fact yet. This one's slacked over to us by Kathleen Spearman, a military spouse in Charleston, South Carolina. Military spouses in the U.S. control an estimated$1.3 trillion in annual household spending. Now that makes them one of the highest spending consumer segments in the country, and most brands have no idea about it. The reason why they spend so much, Well, in part, it's that one out of four military families has to relocate every year. Which means buying cars, buying new houses, furniture, rotation.

23:52Every 12 months, you're hitting up Costco or Target. And here's the kicker. Once a brand earns a veteran family's trust, that family is fiercely loyal to that brand. So thank you to all the military spouses on this Military Spouse Appreciation Day. Yetis, you're looking fantastic today. Jack, you are glowing. And wait, did I tell you the one though about the rabbi and the priest who walk into the bar with a duck and they order a whiskey? You started it twice. No, they invest in the whiskey. I didn't get to that part. Netflix, give us a call. We'll tell you the punchline. No, you'll give us the punchline in three years when we decide if this whole investment thesis was right or not.

24:27Yeah, and he's so many wins to celebrate this week. If you've got a win to celebrate, drop it in the comments. We want to get it on the pod. We also have a poll. Are you investing in collector's whiskey like I'm extremely tempted to? H-Y-H-T-V-O-Y, pause the pod, call your mother, make that reservation. Jack and I, we'll see you Monday.

24:48And before we go, a happy 24th birthday to legendary Eddie Lauren Auer, who's celebrating over in New York City. Happy birthday to Divya Odiapin from Mansfield, Massachusetts. She was at our New York City live show. Thank you for being there. And Brooklyn Brink, a happy big birthday. Keep on celebrating with that cake in Brookline, Mass., just inside Boston. And happy birthday to Lindsay Lieber in New York City. And Joy Dunlap is dancing to her birthday in Panama City, Beach, Florida. Happy birthday to Jimena, celebrating in Panama City, Panama. And Avery Patel, happy 22nd birthday down in Orlando, Florida.

25:21And happy 25th birthday to T. Nguyen in Hoboken, New Jersey. And John Gill, enjoy the 27th up in Grand Rapids, Michigan. Happy 75th birthday to Phil Shane, who's doing a 150-day Wordle streak in Mexico City. Wow. And Kendall Jagger is getting the birthday bagel for her big day in New York City. And a big shout out to Brian York in Scarborough, Maine, who got a new job at a direct nail company. Doing logistics. And to anyone else celebrating something today, make it a T-boy. Celebrate the wins.

25:52This is Jack. I own stock of Netflix and Disney. Nick owns stock in Shake Shack, and we both own ETFs of the S &P 500. The Drop by GNC. Yetis, the wellness space, it moves fast. Every day an influencer is pumping some new product, which is ironically named Pump Product. And it'll get you huge even if you don't lift it. There's creatine in the colostrum, in the protein. GNC actually has experts who cut through all of that and handpick what's worth your attention. The new ingredients, new formulas, and new brands in health and nutrition you need to know about. The Drop is the section of GNC that curates the newest products to share with you what actually works.

26:25We're talking trending ingredients, breakthrough formula stuff that's actually going to move the needle on your goals. Whether that's performance, recovery, or just getting huge. So think of it as the VIP section of the supplement world. You're not waiting for something to blow up on TikTok to find out about it. You're already there. Get a sneak peek at the newest formulas, flavors, and brands coming soon to GNC. New drops launch regularly, so there's always something exciting to discover. GNC.com slash the drop is the destination to discover something new to try today. Get the facts you can trust on what's new and trending.

26:54Plan what's next by browsing the coming soon calendar of drops at gnc.com slash the drop. How do you get the protein in the colostrum?