🚀 “Buzz Lightyearing” — SpaceX’s IPO. The Knicks’ MSG biz. Alo Yoga’s $1M yacht. +UNC’s billion-bet

0:28This is Nick. on today's T-Boy. For our first story, happy SpaceX IPO day to all those who celebrate. But if you want to buy the stock, think of it like a Pokemon card. For our second story, the New York Knicks could win the NBA finals tomorrow night. But did you know the Knicks are publicly traded? The Knicks stock is at an all-time high and yet the Knicks are totally undervalued because of one specific person. And our third and final story is Aloe Yoga. They're launching in Europe by renting a yacht in the Mediterranean for a million dollars a week. Oh, and the comments are the content. We'll tell you what they're up to.

1:02But yetis, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. What a mix of stories. What a game. Love the mix today, Jack. The surprise winner of the SpaceX IPO is not Elon Musk. The world's first trillionaire. Or SpaceX employees. 4 ,000 new millionaires. Or even that one SpaceX janitor who took stock instead of a salary. And just bought a golden mop, Jack. The real winner is your school. Because get this, SpaceX's top early investors were actually big American universities. Because besties as early as 2008, a dozen American college endowments invested in SpaceX. And that investment graduates today.

1:39So UNC, yeah, they got 10 % of their fund in SpaceX. And now that 10 % is worth a billion dollars. Sorry, Duke. How about Wash U and St. Lou? They put 50 mil into SpaceX a few years ago. Which is appreciated to$2 billion. What about the Wahoos of UVA? They got a 20x return on their SpaceX shares. And Stanford University, shocker, grabbed a ride onto the cap table from its million alumni that are now VCs. I think half the freshmen invested in SpaceX 10 years ago, Jack. But there's a plot twist here worthy of a term paper. Because besties, SpaceX got the money from college funds. But Elon Musk has publicly said that college is overrated.

2:18That's right. The same colleges that Elon thinks aren't worth it are worth more than ever now. thanks to Elon, who went to college, by the way. So if your frat party feels Van Wilder this weekend, and if Elle Woods shows up at your sorority tonight, it's because your college's unrealized gains just became extremely realized. Yeah, it's the biggest party since Pluto became a planet. The universities are like, free printing for everyone. It's like, that's what you're giving us? Free printing? Eh, but it's the SpaceX library, Jack. Let's hit our three stories. 15 years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm.

2:52They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is the norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50%, that's a fat tip. T-Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, cause we ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show.

3:14Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor.

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5:34For our first story, any moment now, SpaceX stock will start trading and set a world record. So, should you buy SpaceX shares? That's a personal decision, but we have advice from Pikachu. Ah, Yetis, this is not a galaxy far, far away. This is last night in New York City, what went down, Jack. SpaceX printed 555 million new shares at the Nasdaq Stock Exchange and sold them to investors for 135 bucks each. Now, 30 % of those brands, bank, and new SpaceX shares, they went to retail investors like you and us. 70 % went to big fund managers on Wall Street. But since this IPO was four times oversubscribed, in other words, there were four orders for every one share available, three quarters of us who requested SpaceX IPO stock from their broker, you didn't get it.

6:23If you did get it, congratulations. There you go. Because the stock is likely to pop above its$135 price today, like most IPOs do. The classic IPO stock pop, typically afterwards there's a stock drop, but begins with a pop. If you didn't get the stock, you're not too late because any minute now, it's going to begin trading and you can buy it anytime. Your FOMO will be satisfied. But the price is constantly changing because this is the stock market. So, Obi-Wan Kenobi, here is our big question. Will the stock go up or down? So, we're going to give it our investment banker breakdown and then tell you how, when, or if you should buy SpaceX stock.

6:58But first, besties, to sprinkle on some context, remember last month, we read through all of SpaceX's IPO paperwork for you, spent the whole weekend on it. To be clear, it's a novel, long IPO paperwork. It kind of sounded like it was written by Luke Skywalker, Jack. Yeah, and the banks are acting as the Jedi Council, apparently. Besties, this is the first public company whose explicit goal is to create an interplanetary species. It's also the first company to list water, or lack of it, as a risk to the business. And the first company to give Elon a trillion stock bonus if he founds a city on Mars with, true story, one million citizens.

7:31That's all the fluff that was like wild to read. But the core business, here's a reminder for you, it's space and connectivity. Those are the two monopolies that SpaceX proudly operates today. Now, SpaceX rockets, they did 40 launches in the last quarter. Which is by far the most of any company or government on planet Earth. But what we find fascinating is that the boringest part of SpaceX pays for all of that. Your monthly internet bill. That's what pays for the rocket launches. The Wi-Fi, it's the most profitable business. Starlink, their satellite internet service that George Jetson would probably use.

8:03Starlink is pretty niche right now. It's got 10 million global subscribers, but one day, it could become a bona fide wireless service and compete with Verizon, AT &T, and T-Mobile. Because Starlink already has deals with United Airlines, American Airlines, and Southwest to give Wi-Fi in the air. All right, so those are the businesses that have shown profits already. The rocket-launching space business and the internet-beaming connectivity business. Ah, the profit puppies. But according to Elon, that's not what you should actually be excited about. Another reminder from the S1 IPO paperwork of SpaceX, 93 % of their total addressable market isn't space and isn't Starlink.

8:40It's AI. Elon is telling you that the two most profitable parts of the business do not matter. The only two profitable parts of the business do not matter. 93 % of their potential is AI, something they didn't even have a year ago. And since this IPO paperwork dropped, we've learned new news that supports Elon's AI bullishness. SpaceX signed two $1 billion a month compute deals with Anthropic and Google in the last month. Basically, big tech is paying AI rent to SpaceX's data centers. Meanwhile, Goldman expects SpaceX's AI revenue to increase by 100x by just 2030. And Morgan Stanley sees SpaceX's revenue reaching$3.4 trillion by 2040.

9:21But let's bring those prospects back to Earth a little bit, literally, because Goldman and Morgan Stanley, those were the two banks that Elon chose to lead the IPO. So of course they're going to flatter Elon with their public bullishness of the company. And only one thing has to go wrong for this SpaceX stock to fall in the first place. That one thing is that XAI, their AI business, continues to be a laggard in the AI industry. Because OpenAI, Google, Anthropoc, they're the ones leading the AI race right now. So if SpaceX remains behind those three leaders in the AI race, that should tank SpaceX's stock price.

9:58But Jack, Elon has been known to defy the force of gravity, so should does not mean will. So everyone, including my Lyft driver, wants to know, should I buy SpaceX stock right now? All right, ground control to Major Tom. What's the takeaway for our buddies over at SpaceX? SpaceX stock is an Elon Musk trading card. Its value is emotional, not financial. Now, Yetis, if you got SpaceX stock last night for$135 a share, congrats! Celebrate the wins. It'll probably pop in the short term. I actually requested SpaceX stock from Robinhood, but as of this recording, they haven't told me if I got allocated any shares yet or not.

10:34Now, the stock may pop again on day 15 when SpaceX joins the NASDAQ 100 Index and a bunch of funds have to buy it. But beyond that, beyond day 15, trying to predict the price of SpaceX stock is like trying to predict the price of a Pokemon card. See, like a Pokemon card, SpaceX could get you rich. But to answer what it's worth, Elon is like the seller on eBay and he's trying to say it's worth$135 right now. But Nick, by any basic financial calculation, like comparing the stock price to the company's profits or sales,$135 a share is incredibly overpriced. It is record-breakingly overpriced. It is three times more overpriced than the second most overpriced stock on the S &P 500.

11:16But then, Jack, by that same financial classic logic, Tesla has been overvalued its entire life, and it's doing pretty fine. You see, for both Tesla and SpaceX, because of Elon Musk, the stock price has nothing to do with the financials. No, it doesn't. It's about the emotional excitement of owning an Elon-led company. So, besties, you should buy SpaceX if one of two things. First, you believe in Elon's story and want to own a piece of it. Like a Pokemon card. Or if you think enough other people believe Elon's story that his trading card will appreciate. Like a Pikachu card. SpaceX stock, it's an Elon Musk trading card.

11:53Its value is emotional, not financial. For our second story, the New York Knicks have one wild financial mystery. Their publicly traded MSG stock is at an all-time high, and yet it's still totally undervalued because of one person. Oh, besties. Big moment right now for guys named Nick who are from New York. Like, we're the other New York Knicks. We're finally getting some recognition. People are asking Nick about this because on Wednesday night, the Knicks pulled off the biggest NBA finals comeback in history. That's right. The New York Nicholases. I mean, the New York Knickerbockers on Saturday could win their first championship in 53 years.

12:34Right now, the hottest New York City real estate isn't Central Park West. It's courtside, whoever's sitting between Ben Stiller and Chalamet. You see, there's more net worth in Celebrity Row at Madison Square Garden right now than the GDP of the country of Brunei. According to Vogue magazine, Kylie Jenner's Instagram pics at these games have generated$33 million in media value. She spent most of that$100 ,000 ticket on her phone during the fourth quarter. So Nick and I dove into the financial paint like a young Charles Oakley. There are actually two publicly traded stocks with MSG in the name.

13:08There's MSGE, which owns the arena, Madison Square Garden, plus Radio City and Beacon Theater in New York City, which we hope to play one day. And then there's MSG Sports, the company that owns the Knicks and the Rangers, which play inside Madison Square Garden. Both of those stocks are at all-time highs, as the Knicks haven't made a run like this since 1973. No, they haven't, but it's the Knicks and the Rangers company, MSG Sports, that's up 52 % so far this year in the market. Because for this company, MSG Sports, 38 % of the revenue is related to game day. That's right. The tickets, the merch, the overpriced food, and the extra overpriced beverages.

13:43The$40 hat, the$50 worth of beer, the$500 tickets. Multiply all that by the 18 ,000 seats in Madison Square Garden. That's 38 % of the business. But the next biggest part is the media deals. 32 % of sales come from selling TV rights to the TV networks. 10-second highlight of Brunson's three-pointer. That's going to cost you$20 ,000 ESPN. Now, the most conspicuous revenue source for the Knicks is the sponsors and the suites. Ah, that would be 25 % of the revenues. Because the New York Knicks, true story, play on JPMorgan Chase Court at Madison Square Garden. Which is on Visa Avenue powered by Con Edison with odds provided by DraftKings, Jack.

14:23And your Coca-Cola is brought to you by Coca-Cola. No kidding. And Petco, the official pet food of the men's urinals at Chase Madison Square Garden. So what drives a good year from a bad year for MSG Sports? It's simply the number of games. Mo' games, mo' money, as Snoop would say. In other words, playoffs. The longer you go in the playoffs, the more profit this company makes. Playoffs are the profit puppy. Because Bessie's a regular season basketball game or a hockey game, that generates$4 million in cash. But a first-round playoff basketball game brings in$8 million per game. And a second-round home game brought in$12 million this year.

15:00The conference finals brings in$15 million per game, and the finals brings in$20 million of revenue per home game. Add it all up and MSG's projecting 180 million bucks in sales just on this playoff run. And playoff revenues are better than regular season revenues. 55 % margin. And why is that, Jack? That's a$40 hat in regular season, but it's$140 because they put that NBA finals patch on there. Plus, all those fixed costs of the season, they've been paid for already. So the playoffs is just gravy for the income statement. As Walt Clyde Frazier would say, the playoffs are gravy, baby. That's why MSG Sports stock is up 30 % since the playoffs began.

15:36It's now worth$9.3 billion, which is more than one lift. But I'm calling a technical foul. Please, Jack. Because there's a bunch of publications on the web right now estimating the valuations of each pro sports franchise. You've seen the lists. Yeah, New York City is the biggest media market in the world. So the New York Knicks are valued at$9 billion individually, and the New York Rangers are valued at$4 billion individually. Now, I don't think I've ever had a concussion, but if the Knicks are worth$9 billion and the Rangers are worth$4, it should be a$13 billion company, MSG Sports. But it's not worth$13 billion.

16:09According to MSG Sports' stock price, it's worth$9 billion. So Jack and I just had to ask, why is the MSG Sports stock worth 40 % less than the sum of its individual hockey and basketball parts? So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies, the New York Knicks? Say hello to the Dolan discount. The Dolan discount. Yeti's, sometimes one person can completely change the fundamentals of a business. Like how Tesla and SpaceX have defied its financial fundamentals because of Elon Musk. But in the opposite direction, we have Madison Square Garden and the man, James Dolan. James Dolan is the son of the founder of Cablevision, and he inherited the New York Knicks and the New York Rangers from his dad.

16:50Okay, but James Dolan is not just some nepopreneur. He is the creator of the hugely successful sphere over in Las Vegas. But for MSG Sports, he owns 71 % of the company. He's very controversial. He's quite petty. And he's been losing for decades. The result? Investors devalue MSG stock because of one man. And it is called the Dolan Discount. There's also the conglomeration discount. Sometimes investors prefer owning one clean asset and get annoyed when the story is blurred by a sport that they're not fans of. Which is why on Wall Street, there are rumors now Dolan will split up this MSG business into the$9 billion Knicks company and then a separate$4 billion Rangers company.

17:30Which overnight would increase the combined value by 40%. But in the meantime, besties, we think this is the wildest financial story in sports. MSG sports stock is at an all-time high because of the Knicks, but it's still undervalued because of its owner. Now, a quick word from our sponsor. NetSuite by Oracle. Yet is soon a$1 billion company will be founded and have just one human employee. Because that company will be built from day one with AI. So to stay competitive with AI-native companies, your company needs NetSuite by Oracle. NetSuite is the number one AI cloud ERP trusted by over 43 ,000 businesses.

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18:42The guide is free for you to use at netsuite.com slash tboy. netsuite.com slash tboy. why. Bureau Premium Non-Alcoholic Beer. All right, Yeti, it's a little behind the scenes here. Before our New York City live show back in April, Jack and I went sober for two weeks. True story. Couldn't risk getting sick. I didn't want to be groggy. I couldn't afford a hangover. It was New York, baby. Okay, but Jack, celebrating the wins is what we do. And so for our live shows, we crack open something special. So we drank Bureau, the premium non-alcoholic beer brand co-founded by Tom Holland. Yeah, I actually first saw it at my grocery store.

19:17Delicious tastes like a celebration. Feels fantastic and looks legit. More on the looks in a sec. And if it's good enough for the actor who played Spider-Man, it's good enough for us. You see, it pairs well with a pickleball game, a profitable earnings report, or with the best podcast. So, Yetis, if you want to celebrate the ruins with all the taste of a premium lager or IPA, but none of the alcohol, there's no better choice than Bureau. Okay, pause the pod. Did we mention the can is straight up gold? this thing will stand out at every one of your next parties. Trust us, we've done it. Only beer we know that actually upgrades the scene like a promotion.

19:50So, Basties, if there's a win you're celebrating every day, Bureau is the non-alcoholic brew brand you gotta bring. So use code T-Boy for 20 % off your first order at BureauBrewing.com. For our third and final story, Aloe Yoga, which is crushing Lululemon right now, is officially expanding to Europe. They're doing it with a yacht that costs$1 million per week. Yeti's funny thing Jack was telling me last week. He noticed something on Alex Earl's Instagram feed, so he DM'd her and she didn't respond. No, no, no. I noticed a bunch of pictures in the South of France that were either her in a bathing suit, her eating incredibly healthy looking and yet still delicious looking food, the salmon bowls, or her doing yoga on a branded yacht.

20:37That yacht? A 236-foot San Lorenzo super yacht. The biggest yacht that this Italian shipmaker has ever made. It includes a hair salon, a pool, a hammam, a hydroponic veggie garden on the starboard bow, baby. Can you clarify what a hammam is for those of us who don't know, Nick? It's the opposite of a cold plunge, Jack. This thing, it's got a crew of 21, it sleeps 12, and it's going to set you back$1.1 million per a week. This vessel has two crew members for each one guest. But you can't rent it out because it's already been rented all summer by Aloe. Aloe, which stands for Air, Land, and Ocean.

21:11They're like Lululemon and Gwyneth Paltrow had a baby who was raised inside of an equinox. But here's the news. This LA-based yoga brand is expanding to Europe. That's right. That boat, it's a billboard. Their new flagship store, it's going to be in Paris on the Champs -Élysées. It's possible. Now, the first time Nick and I covered Aloe Yoga was two years ago. Our takeaway then was that the best salesmen don't sell. The best salesmen don't sell. Because when you look at a typical aloe store, it's more like a sanctuary. In fact, they call it that. Because they stuck a podcast studio inside a yoga studio inside the retail store.

21:45Yeah, the aloe retail stores, they're designed to be more like clubs than actual stores. You do the classes there. You go in for a Pilates class. You can also get vitamin B12 IV drips. You can also record a podcast there for some reason. Yeah, our prediction, bro talks coming soon to the aloe near you. And by not trying to sell you something, you end up buying something. And that is why Aloe is now worth an estimated 10 billion bucks in value. Jack, can you sprinkle on some context, please? Now that Lululemon stock is down 75%, Aloe's$10 billion valuation is chomping at the bits of Lululemon's$13 billion.

22:17But besties, this situation, this luxury yacht, this is different, right, Jack? A$12 million summer boat rental in the south of France with a 30-foot custom Aloe Yoga logo on the hull. You stop at the Cannes Films Festival and the Monaco Grand Prix in this economy? Aloe Yoga invited 500 models to this yacht, with a combined 6.5 million followers who've seen all these posts. Are you not influenced yet? They turned a yacht into a wellness resort with Pilates and yoga classes constantly happening on deck. That's by day, but then by night they're doing lymphatic drainages, cold plunges, and chiropractors all on camera.

22:55And they filmed the whole thing. It's generated tons of content, including that carousel post of Alex Earl. All this content probably will end up in the Aloe app too. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Aloe? In an inclusive world, Aloe is choosing exclusive marketing. Yetis, all right, we got a yacht. The south of France, fit Instagram models only, doing topless pull-ups on a diving board. We bet this is the kind of thing Lululemon's founder wishes Lululemon were doing today. Yeah, Chip Wilson, the founder and former CEO of Lululemon. He spent years trashing the company's inclusive marketing.

23:31Here's what he said once. You've got to be clear that you don't want certain customers coming into your store. Now, that's a direct quote. And a kind interpretation of that sentence is that to be aspirational, you have to be exclusive. A negative interpretation of that sentence is that he's judgmental and offensive, and he got fired for saying that kind of thing. Well, Aloe's Instagram and the accounts of their Instagram models are sipping bubbles on Aloe's yacht right now. Allo may feel more free to do that kind of aspirational exclusive marketing because they're a startup. They're not a mass market player like Lulu.

24:03They're not publicly traded. They're not trying to sell to everyone. In an inclusive world, Allo is clearly choosing exclusive marketing. So let us know your thoughts in the comments. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for the real Friday? SpaceX became the biggest IPO ever last night by almost 3x and it starts trading today. And SpaceX's valuation is based on emotions, not finances, like a Pikachu trading card. For our second story, the New York Knicks are a financial mystery. They just had their most profitable year ever thanks to the playoffs. But the stock's 40 % less than what it should be.

24:38That's the Dolan discount. And our third and final story is Aloe Yoga. They're expanding to Europe this summer with a yacht and an army of Instagram models. In an inclusive world, Aloe's going exclusive. But besties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, Waymo is going fancy. They're launching a premium subscription, 30 bucks a month for the robo-taxi. This is Club Waymo. It gets you in the front of the line for Waymo requests and early access to new Waymo cities. If you want to hear this as a full story, let us know in the comments. And second, we've got an inflation secret for you.

25:12If you want to know what's happening with prices next, don't look at the consumer inflation report that everyone else does. Look at the producer inflation report, which just hit 6.5 % yesterday, the highest year over year increase since November of 2022. You see, companies see costs rise before us. Consumers do, but eventually they pass it on to us by jacking up prices in aisle six. So the 4.2 % consumer inflation we saw a couple of days ago, looks like that's going to be going up given 6.5 % producer inflation. And finally, Ben & Jerry's co-founder, Ben Cohen, just came out swinging, saying Ben & Jerry's owner is killing the brand and melting it down.

25:50Burlington's finest Ben Cohen is trying to buy Ben & Jerry's back from Magnum. But we've got big news, don't we, Jack? We just landed an interview with Ben Cohen of Ben & Jerry's, which is kind of a lifelong goal, by the way. We've been working on this for years now. And we're publishing it next week. Now time for the best fact yet. This one's submitted by Stephen Dempsey in a comment on YouTube. As we said yesterday, we're done complaining about World Cup ticket prices, and now we're just going to get excited for the games. All right, let's see some games, baby. Well, Scotland's national team is in the World Cup, and they're all staying in Providence, Rhode Island right now, by the way.

26:24Yeah, funny detail, though. Their national animal, Scotland. A unicorn. And why is that, Jack? In mythology, the unicorn is considered the deadly enemy of the lion. Since England's national animal was a lion, the unicorn was the fitting fighter for the Scots. Yetis, you look fantastic today, Jack. You are glowing over there going into the weekend, my friend. Yetis, if you want to treat yourself, buy those tickets to our live show, Seattle, San Francisco, Boston, this fall, we'll see you there. And trust us, there will be celebrities in the front row after this Nick series is over. Chalamet, he's coming to the T-Boy shows, isn't he, Jack?

27:00Yeah, he's Nick and I. I'll see you Monday, celebrate the wins.

27:07And before we go, a happy birthday to legendary Yeti, Danielle Doboz, who's got a birthday in Denver and getting married to her fiance, Bubba, just next week. Happy birthday to Emma Sims in New York City. Came to our New York City live show, both our New York City live shows, with her buddy Christina. And a happy 45th to Matt Tamalini over in Maui, Hawaii, a daily listener since the Snacks days. Thank you, Matt. Happy birthday to Levi Hunter Gerard, turning five years old with trolls in the backyard in Framingham, Mass. And Paula Leonard's happy 65th birthday over in Temperance, Michigan. Happy birthday to Sandra Warkoff, the proud Peruvian.

27:41And Luke Werkamp in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, is catching big fish for the big dirt day. And Anna Kerfoot from Nevada. You flew to Boston to help a fellow Yeti after a double mastectomy. Big shout out for that move. And Cassidy, Carter, and Callum over in Orland, Pennsylvania. They've got a big celebration of a graduation. And finally, a big shout out to Alex, my wife. Nick, this is our meat-iversary. This is our meat-cute anniversary, baby. Are you kidding? Mike Durkin's bachelor party. I was at Sugarbush. She was at Sugarbush. I got her number. And there's a Met story involved. The Met story came a week later.

28:13We'll get to that later. That's a story for another pod.

28:19This is Jack. I own stock of Lyft. Nick owns stock of Lululemon. We both own ETFs to the S &P 500. And we might own SpaceX stock by the time that this pod is published. We might own SpaceX stock by the time this episode publishes. The grill is shot. The chairs are held together by optimism. And what happened to the rug? Sounds like your outdoor setup is not ready for patio season. Fix it all with Wayfair. Shop Wayfair for grills, rugs, furniture, and more. With 20 million five-star reviews, room of choice delivery, and experts set up on qualifying orders, it's never been easier to do more for less.

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