🥯 “$hmeared” — VC loves bagels. Amazon’s satellite splurge. ROI on the IRS. +ZuckClone

0:28This is Nick. the last few days. Good timing, by the way, because I had to sell a bunch of stock to pay my taxes. It's unstoppable like a Porsche with no brakes. Jack, three fantastic stories for today's show. What do we got on the TV boy? For our first story, yesterday we talked about Amazon selling cars online. Today, Amazon's buying satellites in space. Amazon just dropped 12 million bucks to take on SpaceX. For our second story, it's pop-up bagels. They just schmeared their business with a$300 million valuation. Because besties, we're actually in the middle of a nationwide bagel investment boom.

1:03And our third and final story. On tax day, we got to profile the IRS, America's cash register. Because the IRS is America's most hated agency, but also our most profitable one. But yeties, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. That's right. We're talking ROI on the IRS. Jack, love the mix today, man. We have cloned sheep. We have cloned mice. We have cloned stormtroopers. But the one thing that we have never, ever, ever cloned is a tech bro. Until now. Because get this, Mark Zuckerberg is building an AI clone of himself. It's got one purpose only, micromanage the entire meta office. No joke.

1:41According to the Financial Times, Zuckerberg is training an AI avatar of his image, voice, and likeness. He's feeding this thing everything he says. He writes, He thinks right into this AI. He's feeding it everything except what he eats. So that the model can generate a full AI copy of himself. That's right, Yeti. Zuck is zucking himself. And we're not just talking about a chatbot. No. We're talking about a, quote, photorealistic AI-powered 3D character, according to the Financial Times. Jack, can I get a Star Wars-style translation, please? He's building a hologram, Nick. Yeah, it's hologram Zuck.

2:13It's Holly Zuck. Infinitely scalable. But besties, we should point out Zuck's not keeping Zucker Borg to himself, is he Jack? Copies of Zuck's AI hologram will be all over Meta's campus. What we're saying is he's gonna be Zuckin' everywhere. If you need feedback, AI Zuck will be right there to give it to you. Want a promotion? You gotta ask AI Zuck. If you want unsolicited advice about your work wardrobe... AI Zuck has already given it. He hates your hoodie. Yeah, he's gonna be on your way to the urinal and AI Zuck is gonna pop up on that mirror screen. Yeah, employees have to wash their hands before returning to their desk.

2:46Zuck's watching. This ain't founder mode. This ain't manager mode, man. This is freaky mode. It is because this Zuck clone can do one-on-ones with every single one. I met a 75 ,000 employees in a single day. Is this a dystopia or utopia? I'd say dystopia. Jack, it kind of reminds me of that poem. Remember that rap song? One Zuck, two Zuck, three Zucks, four. Use AI to scale Zucks galore. With only one Zuck, we were living poor. But when it comes to Zucks, the merrier more. Mic drop. Jack, let's hit our three stories. 15 years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm.

3:19It's the best one yet, but the best is the norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50%, that's a fat tip. T-Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, cause we're here to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show.

3:38Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor.

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4:47And use code T-Boy at Monarch.com for half off your first year. That's 50 % off at Monarch.com, code T-Boy. Lisa Mattress. Yeah, it is. Jack and I had this theory. The S &P 500 would be up to 10 ,000 points if every investor slept on a Lisa Mattress. We have zero scientific evidence to back that up. Hey, we don't have any. But we do have personal experience. Because Jack and I just recently upgraded our old mattresses to Lisa's. And the snooze, it is real. Our portfolios are up since we've been getting eight hours of sleep on a Lisa. Just saying. It's not financial advice, but it kind of is. It's Wall Street.

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6:09For our first story, Amazon just became the most credible challenger yet to SpaceX after buying a$12 billion satellite company. Amazon also just announced a deal with Apple to give iPhones and Apple Watches satellite connectivity. Yetis, we know what you're thinking. Yeah, we covered Amazon selling cars yesterday. That was down here on Earth. What's going on now, Jack? We had to cover them again. Because they're up in space, apparently, too. But this story starts in the late 1990s, before SpaceX was even a twinkle in Elon's eyes. Back when Independence Day was the space movie of a generation. That's when Globalstar, a publicly traded company, put their first satellites up into space.

6:49Well, now this satellite company, Globalstar, is headquartered in Louisiana, and they're focused on satellite phones. Global Star allows emergency messaging for lost hikers, stranded sailors, dudes living off the grid and need to get a message out somehow. And those Global Star satellites have hitched rides on Russian rockets, Boeing rockets, and SpaceX's rockets for years now. And today, they've got 24 satellites in orbit, and they own valuable wireless bandwidth here on Earth as well. Space real estate, that's some good real estate. But now all of that is going to belong to Amazon. Yes. Which announced on Tuesday they're acquiring Globalstar for$11.6 billion, which is about two lifts.

7:27Wall Street absolutely loved it, by the way. Huge fans of this. The stock in Amazon actually rose 5 % on Tuesday, close to an all-time high. For a$2.3 trillion company to rise 5%, that's$125 billion in new stock market market cap value. I think what we're saying, Jack, is that the stock gain of Amazon in one day more than pays for that$12 billion acquisition price of this satellite business. Nick, it pays for it 10 times over. And here's the splashiest part. We're not done yet. Amazon's simultaneous deal announcement with Apple. Amazon, Apple, they're hooking up like a couple of sophomores in college right now.

8:04Since the iPhone 14 came out in 2022, you've been able to send emergency SOS messages using satellites. Maybe you got lost camping or your car broke down or you got no service on that bachelorette party after getting in a pedicab to the furthest bar in Cabo because Becca just wanted to dance with somebody. So even if you don't have service, as long as you've seen that SOS satellite symbol on the top right of your iPhone, you can point it up into the sky at one of Global Star's 24 satellites. Yeah, Jack, remember those skiers stuck in the avalanche near Lake Tahoe in California a couple months ago?

8:35Their iPhones were able to send SOS messages to the authorities thanks to Global Star's satellites. Now, besties, Jack and I should sprinkle on some context. This is a very modest service today, this emergency satellite iPhone service. Only one-way SOS texts. You can't do voice, you can't do data. Yeah, Becca's not sending a selfie video of the dancing through the satellite emergency system. But by 2028, Becca will be able to. Yeah. Amazon plans to allow voice data and messaging through their satellite service, not just SOS texts. So now Amazon is taking over those satellites, that spectrum, and this Apple deal, and it's upgrading all of them.

9:12That service now has a name too. Amazon Leo. What does that stand for, Jack? Leo is low earth orbit. Yeah. Great abbreviation for a satellite wireless company. Highly convenient given the Leo constellation up in the space as well. Yetis, for 40 years, telco has been dominated by Verizon, AT &T, and T-Mobile. You know those physical towers on land charging you 100 bucks a month to use their frequencies? We all seen them. Eyesores. But that era is ending. The future of infrastructure is invisible. Because it's up in space. Welcome to the global telco era. It's going to be Amazon versus SpaceX, and it's all up in space out of sight.

9:48Instead of cell towers here on Earth, we're getting internet beaming satellites up in orbit. SpaceX has a huge lead, we should point out. 10 ,000 satellites compared to Amazon's less than 300. But Amazon is motivated to catch up because Becca just called them from The Bachelorette to ask. No, because of our takeaway. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Amazon Satellites? Your margin is my opportunity. Yetis. With SpaceX prepping an IPO, we're finally getting details on Elon's out-of-orbit financials. And the undisputed profit puppy at SpaceX isn't the rockets, and it definitely isn't Grok AI.

10:25No, it's actually Starlink. The$10 billion in annual revenue that Starlink satellites bring in for SpaceX are more than double the revenue that they bring in through their rocket launches. And Starlink is incredibly profitable. It's got a 65 % profit margin. That's twice as fat as any of the wireless companies today. And the wonderful thing about capitalism, besties, is that if consumers are getting ripped off, then the market fixes itself. Starlink is charging consumers an enormous markup because no one else sells satellite internet. Well, now that profit margin is inviting competition. Amazon can offer half the price for the same service, still make a pretty good profit.

11:02So soon, Starlink won't have a monopoly on space Wi-Fi because SpaceX's margin is Amazon's opportunity. You got to munch on that margin like it's a mango. For our second story, don't slice it. Pop-up bagels just hit a$300 million valuation. That's a 5x in just five months. And the hedge fund that invested in OpenAI and Waymo is now also investing in bagels. Jack and I tracked the crumbs and there is a bigger story here. But yet is the bagel. Oh, the humble bagel, Jack. It's like a donut that forgot to put on makeup in the morning. It is. And no bagel business is more glanned up these days than pop-up bagel.

11:43Pop-up bagels. Not famous, but known. I mean, Jack, we talk about the carbo-loaded cap table here. Investors for pop-up bagels include Michael Phelps, Michael Strahan, Paul Rudd, the actor. They're celebrities with a hole in the middle now. It was founded by Adam Goldberg in Connecticut during the pandemic. How did he kick this thing off, Jack? Well, first of all, he eats his bagels in a way that I'd never seen before. He just tears them apart into chunks. Doesn't cut them in half. Tears them apart and then dips them in the cream cheese. Yeah, it's called the rip and the dip and it was perfected on the loriest side.

12:11The growth strategy for Mr. Goldberg, by the way, also impressive. Highly relatable. He started like anyone. He started a social media account and sought some traction from his friends. He basically was promoting sesame seed pics of his bagels like they were Kim Kardashian and this thing went fairly viral. And according to an interview he did with Bloomberg, he made every one of his friends like and post and share just like anybody starting a business. And here's the news. Pop-Up Bagels may have only 29 stores, but they just hit a$300 million valuation, which is insane because just five months ago in October, they had a$60 million valuation.

12:45Sit down, stand up, and yeah, we'll take locks. We'll take three locks with that, please. So Pop-Up Bagels could become the first unicorn bagel, but there is a bigger story here as Jack and I dove in's T-boy style. A nationwide bagel boom. Yeah, to sprinkle on some context, leading up to this fundraising round, Tiger Global was the early investor in OpenAI, Waymo, Facebook. But now Tiger Global is the lead investor putting everything into this everything bagel. It's not just Tiger, is it, Jack? All of Wall Street seems to be schmearing all their money into the bagel business right now. Call Your Mother, a local DC bagel chain, they got bought up by an asset management company a couple years ago.

13:25H &H Bagel, the icon of New York, it got bought and resurrected by a finance guy. Went to camp with this kid. One guy literally filed an SEC-regulated fund dedicated exclusively to acquiring bagel shops. What's the name, Jack? Manhattan Bagel Equity. That's a real thing. Yeti's Bagel, as Jack and I were thinking earlier. It's the new Bitcoin. It is, yeah. Which is wild. Like, bagels are not a new thing. No, no, no. The bagel was invented in 17th century Poland, perfected by Jewish immigrants in New York. And yes, there are nationwide bagel chains like Brueger's, Einstein Brothers, Noah. They're all owned by the same company that owns Panera.

14:00Although, Jack, I'm not saying you have unsophisticated taste, but that Bruegel's bagel with butter is a little bit closer to a napkin than a real bagel, man. It's basically circular bread. Authentic bagels require a very arduous cooking process, and it's been notoriously both unprofitable and unscalable. I mean, Jack, you gotta mix them. You gotta proof them. You gotta boil them. You gotta bake them, these things. So what's changed now is new oven technology that slashes the time from baking to brunch in half. And clever business tactics like pop-up bagel, they got a minimum order amount. You can buy at least three bagels.

14:36They don't sell you single bagels. And then there's the rip and dip, which goes viral on social media. They treat those sesame bagels like influencers. Plus, with people drinking less alcohol, there's fewer hangovers and fewer people sleeping in. So this is a true fact. more breakfast is being had in this country. Turns out the hangover is not good for the bagel industry. Although when I used to be hangover, I would definitely get bagels. It's counterintuitive, Jack. Besties added all up and the bagel. The victim number one of the anti-carb era is now the ultimate comeback story. Because Atkins is over and your gluten-free phase had stopped being fun, didn't it?

15:11So Wall Street, they're tasting money. Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over in the bagel industry? Will the bagel become coffee or cupcakes? Suedadis. Big money is betting that there's a lot of breakfast market share or tummy share for the bagel to eat up. The risk is that the bagel goes the way of the cupcake, a fad that fades away. Remember when Wall Street was obsessed with crumbs cupcakes a decade ago, sprinkles cupcakes? Both of them now shut down. The more bullish story is that the bagel could end up like coffee, what used to be a regional treat that's now a national ritual. You know, back in the 70s, Starbucks was just a small startup in Seattle in a young regional coffee scene.

15:49Tiger Global thinks that's where bagel is in their maturity phase right now. And so Wall Street and Silicon Valley investors are betting that the bagel ain't a fad, it's a habit that's here to stay. And that most of the country just hasn't tried a good one yet. Now, a quick word from our sponsor. Drive with Jim Farley. All right, Jack, let's open up the hood going to the chassis about the word drive. Let's talk vocab. It reminds us of our brand word brighter because drive has two meanings. That's right. And for the podcast drive hosted by Ford CEO, Jim Farley, those two meanings are very on brand.

16:22Jim Farley, cousin of Chris Farley, by the way, he talks to celebrities about what they drive and what drives them. You see, if you like cars or competition, you're going to love every episode of this podcast show. I just listened to the interview with Chris Hoy. Sorry, Sir Chris Hoy. That's right. Because Chris Hoy is an Olympic cyclist, a BMX biker, and a race car driver. And the night of the British Empire. Yeah, this man knows how to drive things. Oh, and he keeps driving even with a terminal cancer diagnosis. Learning how Chris gets better every day was inspiring, even as his body gets worse every day with cancer.

16:53I mean, honestly, we love the guy. You got to hear this episode. Nick, you know I've owned Ford stock forever. This is the day I met you. I like seeing that their CEO is getting diverse experiences by talking to people like a night cyclist cancer survivor named Chris Hoy. So to listen to Drive with Jim Farley, just search for Drive with Jim Farley in your podcast app. That's Drive with Jim Farley. Vroom, vroom. NetSuite by Oracle. Yetis, this is AI Nick. That's kind of my R2D2 voice. Just kidding. It's you and Nick and you and Jack, but you probably want to know how to make AI work for you. And have the output not feel like R2D2 just malfunctioned on you.

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18:03Robot Nick and Robot Jack, both very impressed. If your revenues are at least in the seven figures, get your free business guide, Demystifying AI, at netsuite.com slash tboy. The guide is free to use at netsuite.com slash tboy. Netsuite.com slash tboy. For our third and final story, happy tax day to all those who celebrate. Which is no one. Because when American knights around a single emotion, It's today and it's resentment. But our revenue service doesn't just pay the bills. It's actually the most profitable agency in America. Besties, tax day 2026. The average tax refund this year, it's actually up 350 bucks from last year.

18:47That's thanks to the One Beautiful Bill Act. But we should point out all those nice tax refunds are being financed with debt. Basically getting tossed on our national credit card. Your refund is on America's Amex. But besties, before you go and spend that 350 bucks on a bottle service in Miami, we should tell you that that it's kind of ironic. It's ironic because at the same time we're giving out refunds paid for by debt, we're defunding the one agency that could reduce our debt. So besties, let's jump in T-boy style. Without your green visor hats, turn on the lamp and go full CPA on these IRS numbers.

19:20The IRS collected$5.2 trillion in revenue last year from Americans and American businesses with a budget of$12 billion. I'm sorry, Jack, pause the pod. A$12 billion agency just collected$5 trillion? That's a big difference. Name another agency in the federal budget that does that. Department of the Interior, so jealous right now. Without the IRS, our soldiers don't get paid, our TSA doesn't function, and social security checks don't go out. Actually, the IRS, our Internal Revenue Service, our tax collectors have this really cool quote about what they do, actually. It's chiseled into their headquarters building in D.C.

19:53Taxes are the price we pay for a civilized society. But besties, despite those epic numbers, the IRS is uniformly unpopular in America. From Texas to Tribeca, people hate paying taxes. Sometimes you wonder if they hate the IRS or if they hate the process of paying taxes to the IRS. But either way, not that popular. Which is why gutting the IRS is good politics, even when the math makes no sense. And that, Yetis, it leads to a new American mantra about taxes, according to the Wall Street Journal. The IRS isn't going to catch me. That's right. Because the Trump administration has cut the number of people enforcing our tax laws by a third compared to 2022.

20:30You might remember we did a story last year about Doge slashing the IRS. Yeah, and Jack, remember that report about how Elon was working to create a new tax app that would be like super efficient? Yeah, it would make filing as easy as a Venmo payment. Well, Elon's tax app never ended up materializing, but the gutting of the IRS did. And the result of the IRS getting gutted? It's more tax evasion. Because, as the Wall Street Journal just put it, the IRS isn't going to catch me. According to the Yale Budget Lab, the doge cuts and the funding clawback of the IRS last year saved the government$20 billion of direct spending costs.

21:04All right, not too shabby, saving 20 billion bucks for the government. But it cost the government$859 billion in tax evasion. We lost almost a trillion bucks because we're not enforcing the tax laws. So we need to talk about the ROI on the IRS. Based on my 1099, Jack, means it's our takeaway. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies paying taxes? The IRS is the only government spending that creates money instead of losing it. Yeah, it is. The IRS gutting against popular support because people hate paying taxes and people fear getting audited. But the truth is that auditing tends to happen to wealthy people because they pay taxes voluntarily, unlike W-2 workers who pay taxes automatically.

21:46See, the self-employed entrepreneurs, the wealthy, people with complex returns, they pay what they decide to pay. Basically, that's why$700 billion of taxes owed doesn't get paid each year in the United States. That much money, it could fund the entire Department of War. That$700 billion of taxes not paid is called the tax gap. And most of that tax evasion is from people making over a million dollars. And that is why each$1 invested into the IRS generates$6 of revenue through audits, according to the Congressional Budget Office. And that same$1 in tax collection generates another$7 in deterrence.

22:25Yet he's had all this up. Audits and the fear of audits is how our country gets the wealthy to pay their taxes that are dead. Well, if we run the government like a business, I would be giving the IRS all the money they could possibly want. Yeah. If we had a T-boy channel on like some social media, even if it was like over in China that was getting$7 for every dollar we put into it, we would be loading that thing up with budget. Plow every dollar we have into that channel. Besties, it's because the ROI on the IRS is the best investment in our economy. $1 spent brings in$13. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us for ceviche Wednesday tax day?

23:04Amazon acquired a constellation of satellites and an Apple deal to catch up with SpaceX. Because Starlink's margin was Amazon's meal. Pop-Up Bagels is now worth$300 million thanks to Tiger Global, which usually invests in tech hyperscalers. Bagels are moving beyond the coast, but will they end up like coffee or like cupcakes? Let us know in the comments. And finally, it's tax day, but never forget the ROI on the IRS. For every$1 we give to the IRS for tax enforcement, we get$13 in revenue. But besties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, it has been a brutal and scary week for the CEO of OpenAI, Sam Altman.

23:42Important to know this. First, the brutal was an article in The New Yorker alleging Sam is a sociopath. Okay, but then the scary, a Molotov cocktail was thrown at the front gate of his house in San Francisco. And yesterday, his house got attacked again. Really scary moment for Sam, his family, and everyone working at OpenAI right now. And second, the CEO of United Airlines wants to merge with American to create the world's worst, I'm sorry, the world's biggest airline. That's according to a Bloomberg report that the CEO of United Airlines spoke to senior government officials to see if they would approve this merger.

24:14Yeah, because a merger between two of the biggest airlines, that would typically get blocked. Airlines are already highly concentrated. I can't believe we're even considering going from four big airlines to just three. Basically, besties, every economist is against this deal because, yeah, the peanuts, they would no longer be free. And finally, the hottest new fashion, it's not cashmere or wool. It's T-Rex. Yeah, scientists have taken the T-Rex DNA and created a T-Rex skin that they are now going to put into clothes. So a T-Rex leather handbag is going to be auctioned off next month. True story.

24:45It's like the plot of Jurassic Park meets the plot of Devil Wears Prada, and it's all going down in four weeks. Now, time for the best fact yet. This one noticed by Jack and I, so we wanted to whip it up for you. Phil Collins was one of the musicians that was just inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame on Tuesday. Funny, because I thought Phil Collins was already in the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame. He was, Nick. He was in as part of Genesis, his rock duo along with Peter Gabriel. So, Jack and I jumped in T-boy style. Turns out there are actually 17 other people who have pulled that off. They've been inducted twice into the same Hall of Fame.

25:18As both an individual and as a member of a group. Yeah, if you're curious who the other 17 are, we got a list in the show notes so you can do your own T-Boy trivia with your buddies. It's a great category. Check out the list in the show notes. Yaddies, you are looking fantastic for Ceviche Wednesday. Jack, you are glowing. Although now I'm reminded of that time when we were living in the East Village and I said, let's go out to bagels. And you took out a pizza bagel. Totino's frozen bagels. Those count, right? Yetis, if you have not yet, drop down to give us a five-star rating and review. That helps us grow the show.

25:47It really does, and we love reading them. Nick and I, we'll see you tomorrow. If you know, you know.

25:56And before we go, a happy birthday to legendary Eddie Patrick, an accountant in Bedford, New Hampshire, who's definitely working late tonight. Happy birthday to Rachel and Robert, twins in the Bay Area, who also both had babies this year. And Asad Ismail, happy birthday and enjoy that health journey in Katy, Texas. Happy birthday to Saurab Trivedi, listening with his wife on the way to San Francisco as he turns 30. And Zach Toas is turning 12 years old up in Alaska on the way to school, rapping the jingle along the way. Happy 50th birthday to Greg Kota, who's in his camper van right now making s'mores on Lake Oswego, Oregon.

26:32And a happy birthday to my Dartmouth green father-in-law, Matty Dwyer from lovely Manhasset, Long Island. Not from New York State. Long Island is the state. Congratulations to Lizzie Horvitz, our buddy who was on the Today Show today. The Mid Panther making the airwaves and Miriam and Nathan Fisher. We gave them a shout out for their engagement two years ago. Well, we got to meet them at our live show in Austin and now it's their anniversary. Congrats, guys. Big shout out to Mark who got an 850 credit score but it fell down to 845 and now he's touched the peak. And congratulations to Kathleen and David Brink, two legendary Yetis who have a new IBO, initial baby offering, Ruby Brink, born in Louisville.

27:10And to anybody else celebrating something today, make it a T-boy. Celebrate the wins.

27:17This is Jack, Ion Stock of Amazon. Nick and I both own ETFs at the S &P 500, and we both own some Bitcoin. Bitcoin, name that.

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