⚽ “Penalty Kick Math” — America’s Harvard goalie. Apple’s biggest price hike. Hill House’s nap dress. +Jensen Huang Foodie

0:29This is Nick. This is Jack. or gin or bourbon for the Negroni. Drop it in the comments. In the meantime, in the capital of coolest business news, Jack, what do we got on today's pod? For our first story, Apple just announced the largest price hike ever on just about everything they sell. Because the world is running out of memory. For our second story, how did Hill House, the home goods brand, make $110 million with one single dress? It's all thanks to the group chat effect. And our third and final story is the goalie for Team USA. He's a Harvard-educated mathematician. And his data reveals the best way to stop a penalty kick.

1:04It's to do nothing. Nada. But yet he's before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. No one else is doing that mix. Love the mix before the weekend. Celebrate the wins, Jack. If you want a good restaurant recommendation for this weekend, don't follow the famous chefs, the food critics, the Michelin stars, or the TikTokers. Just follow Jensen Huang's Instagram. because the hottest new food influencer is NVIDIA CEO Jensen Wong. Tech icon turned street foodie. Pewter chips or nacho chips? I'll have both, please. That's what he says. While we were grabbing Negronis in New York yesterday, Jensen was doing a taco crawl through the West Village.

1:41No joke, he stopped at like three places. So the top place to eat tonight is whatever empanada the NVIDIA CEO just discovered. Jensen's become the Stanley Tucci of tofu balls. The Gordon Ramsay of ramen. The founder of the$5 trillion chip company is in his Anthony Bourdain era. And we'll have what he's having, please. On a recent state trip to China, Jensen stopped at two Beijing noodle bars. And then he flew to Taiwan for a night market just for the dim sum. And he paid everyone's tab at all of those restaurants. Like everyone in the restaurant, he said, I'm paying for your tab. We couldn't make it up.

2:12Inside that Taiwanese dumpling spot, it now says Jensen was here. He wrote it. Wherever Jensen goes, which is usually a mom and pop, it ends up going viral. The pad thai pops off. So Jensen, we got a question for you. We need a good sushi spot in Brooklyn for tonight. We need a good go-to bibimbap. Side note, before founding NVIDIA, Jensen's first job before tech, what was it, Jack? He was a busboy at Denny's. GPUs and barbecues. Jensen's got your back for both. Another round, Jack. Let's hit our three-story. Fifteen years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in the dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm.

2:46It's the best one yet, but the best is the norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50%, that's a fat tip. T-Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, cause we ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show.

3:05Start the show. Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor.

3:15Monarch. Yetis, one lobster roll, no joke, 50 bucks on Nantucket. And why is that a problem, Jack? Because we're going to Nantucket this summer on a joint family T-boy trip. It's a write-off. It is expensive, but we will travel with peace of mind because our finances are organized in Monarch, despite the lobster rolls. Monarch is the personal finance app that tracks everything. Accounts, investments, savings goals, and spending. Get your first year of Monarch Core for half off, just$50 with promo code TBOY. Monarch shows visually how much you're spending this month compared to the average month, which is really useful.

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4:18That's 50 % off your first year at monarch.com with code T-Boy. Beer-o premium non-alcoholic beer. All right, Yeti, it's a little behind the scenes here. Before our New York City live show back in April, Jack and I went sober for two weeks. True story. Couldn't risk getting sick. I didn't want to be groggy. I couldn't afford a hangover. It was New York, baby. Okay, but Jack, celebrating the wins is what we do. And so for our live shows, we crack open something special. So we drank Biro, the premium non-alcoholic beer brand co-founded by Tom Holland. Yeah, I actually first saw it at my grocery store.

4:52Delicious tastes like a celebration, feels fantastic, and looks legit. More on the looks in a sec. And if it's good enough for the actor who played Spider-Man, it's good enough for us. You see, it pairs well with a pickleball game, a profitable earnings report, or with the best podcast. So yeties, if you want to celebrate the wins with all the taste of a premium lager or IPA, but none of the alcohol, there's no better choice than Bureau. Okay, pause the pod. Did we mention the can is straight up gold? This thing will stand out at every one of your next parties. Trust us, we've done it. Only beer we know that actually upgrades the scene like a promotion.

5:25So besties, if there's a win you're celebrating every day, Bureau is the non-alcoholic brew brand you got to bring. So use code T-Boy for 20 % off your first order at BureauBrewing.com. For our first story, Apple just did their biggest price increase ever. $200 more for MacBooks and iPads. Because the stock market has a new master. Memory. Never forget it. Besties, the AI economic odyssey. It can be chronicled like the Iliad in a series of shortages. It started with a shortage of GPUs, then chip cooling, then electric turbines. So the stocks of NVIDIA, Vertiv, and GE all 10x'd. Then we had a shortage of power and a shortage of fiber optic cables.

6:12So the stocks of Constellation Energy and Corning Glass also 10x'd. But today, we're short memory chips. Oh boy. So the companies that make memory chips have 10x'd on the stock market. Including your new buddy, Mike. Their revenues quadrupled last quarter, even though they jacked up their prices by 100%. Get this, Micron stock is now worth$1.3 trillion with a T dollars. That is 10 times more valuable than last summer. And yeah, we did the math, that's 216 lifts. And why is all this happening? Because AI data centers are hungry for everything, especially memory chips right now. Those hungry, hungry hippos, they want memory chips.

6:52But Jack, so do iPhones, iPads, and MacBooks, right? And not even Apple. The$4 trillion company can defy the memory chip mania sweeping across this economy. Which, pause the pod, besties, is why this story is relevant to you. In a bad way, unfortunately. Yeah, it's not that fun a way. Apple just increased their hardware prices by 20%. Yeah, sit down, stand up, and get in line at the Apple story again. Because according to an Apple executive, we have never seen a component price increase this much this quickly. Or as Jack and I are calling it, the memory fee. The MacBook Neo laptop is up 17 % in price.

7:26From$599 to$699. Apple's jacking up the MacBook Air by 18%. From$1 ,099 to$1 ,299. iPads now cost$200 more. MacBook Pros now cost$300 more. Oh, Apple TV, HomePod, even the Apple Vision Pro, all up 15 % to 25 % on the prices. The iPhone and the Apple Watch are safe for now. But we almost guarantee that when Apple launches a brand new iPhone 18 in September that kind of looks like the iPhone 17, Every one of the options is going to be$100 to$200 more expensive than the iPhone 17. Memory fee, Newman. Apple stock fell yesterday because they're raising prices just to cover their costs. This isn't going to make them any more profit.

8:08This profit button, they're not going to be hitting that profit puppy button, Jack. In fact, Apple's profits is going to fall because of this. Because the price hikes are going to make people delay their upgrades or just buy fewer Apple products in general. And so added all up, besties, and Apple stock fell 6 % on the market yesterday. That was a lot of market cap. While Micron, which controls the most desired thing in this economy right now, memory chips, their stock jumps 16%. Like infinity stones. And that, it really explains the whole stock market right now, right, Jack? If you make memory chips, you're soaring.

8:39But if you need memory chips, you're sinking. Memory, never forget it. That's clever, Nick. That's the second time you said that. I got it the first time, but I'm glad you re-absorbed it. I know, I know. I almost forgot the first time. But do you remember our takeaway, by the way? Let's go. Come on. Let's get to the takeaway. I almost forgot. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over in the memory game? Back to school computers, they'll have their biggest price hikes ever because of AI. Now, Besties, fascinating situation. But for five decades, the price of computers and TVs and other hardware tech, it's all fallen.

9:12It's been wonderful. As reliable as the force of gravity, electronics have gotten cheaper as their technology has gotten better. But Besties, all of that is now reversing because the AI industry and data centers, they're hogging all the memory chips. And it's not just Apple products that need memory chips. There's going to be sticker price shock at everything sold at Best Buy right now. Back in April, PlayStations jumped by$100. In May, Nintendo Switches jumped by$50. Every TV manufacturer has raised prices this year because every TV needs memory chips. Now, besties, data centers were already the least popular thing in America after the Walgreens pharmacy.

9:47But now data centers are indirectly jacking up the price of whatever next electronic gadget you want for Christmas this year. from the MacBooks to the Game Boys. If you make memory chips, you're sore. But if you need memory chips, you're sinking. Never forget it. For our second story, Hill House Home. They're doing 110 million bucks in sales thanks to one item, the nap dress. And the nap dress is thanks to the group chat. Oh, besties, Jack and I have been working on this story for a couple years, is basically because Jack crashed to my place and he asked a question. So when I stay in San Francisco, which we do a lot, Nick has a bedroom for me.

10:29It's called Jack's office, basically. And when I left one time, I said, Nick, what are those towels? They're soft. They're so fluffy, so soft. Molly told me that they're Hill House Home. But Jack and I got curious about the business, so we jumped in T-boy style to Hill House Home. Founded 10 years ago by Nell Diamond, a fresh graduate of Yale Business School. Not Neil Diamond, Nell Diamond, but her vision was for a linens and bedding company to transform millennials. Her goal was to turn your home into a cottagecore fantasy, like my bedroom at Nick's house. Yeah, like basically if you want your bedroom to feel like pride and prejudice, you register your wedding in Hill House Home.

11:04But there's nothing good talking about the business because for three straight years, Hill House Home's revenues have exploded. We're talking 300 % revenue growth. That led to$110 million in sales and a$150 million valuation. Those numbers make you want to churn some butter with Mr. Darcy. Don't they, Nick? Now Hill House has nine stores so far in destinations like Nantucket, Sag Harbor, and Charleston. Also in Dallas and Atlanta, and they're opening seven new stores this year with 20 more coming next year. Okay, but pause the pod, Jack, because Hill House Home, it ain't a home goods company anymore, is it?

11:38No, in fact, they don't even sell those towels anymore. I checked. In fact, home goods are only 5 % of this home goods company's business. The company has transformed because sales have been driven by one hit product that became the sole profit puppy. It's the nap dress. Early in the pandemic, Nell was a tired new mom working from home trying to run her business, and she turned some of her extra fabric into puffy sleeves. Voila, the nap dress. An elevated nightgown that became the core millennial mom uniform with her work from home situation. Or how would you describe it, Jack? What Jane Austen would wear on a Zoom call.

12:13Yeah, like if a character from Bridgerton wanted to grab Froyo with you, you would go get Froyo in a nap dress. Dude, why'd you just pivot to Shonda Rhimes? I thought we were sticking with Jane Austen for this whole story. Because Jane Austen would appreciate the Shonda Rhimes reference, Jeff. We went over this. But when the pandemic ended, unlike Zoom, the nap dress didn't go out of style. The nap dress accelerated. That's right. Unlike Peloton, the nap dress sales actually accelerated. And to date, they've sold 1.2 million of this one single dress. Wild. Two-thirds of nap dress buyers, they come back to buy another nap dress.

12:47They're repeat rabbits, and they even have a name for themselves, hashtag nap dress nation. That's right, besties. We found the only nightgown out there that has fanatics. But here's what Nick and I found fascinating. Hill House Home only spends 5 % of their revenues on marketing. That's a super low percentage for a fast-growing company. So Jack and I got asked, how do they get the word out and find new customers without doing ads? With Mr. Gimley. So Jack, what is the takeaway for our buddies nap dressing over at Hill House Homes? It's the group chat effect. It's the group chats. Besties, the most powerful driver of quality customers, it's word of mouth.

13:25Your buddy tells a buddy. Referral from a friend is the most trusted source that's most likely to convert. That's why we always ask you to tell your buddies H-Y-H-T-B-O-Y. But there's a problem with word of mouth because you can't track it. It's easy to forget. And there's a whole lot of friction to act on that friend's reference that, oh, I already forgot it. But word of mouth through group chat alleviates a lot of those friction problems. That's right, Jack. Because when Millennial Millie drops a nap dress pic in her mom crew group chat, a whole bunch of people see it. Only one person has to share the link.

13:56And then it's one click, no friction, everyone can buy it. The idea, it's there forever. So the group chat besties, it is the ultimate ad. It's got the personal element of a trusted referral. but the trackability and ease of a newsletter link. It's clickable word of mouth. So add it all up and Hill House Home passed 110 million bucks in revenue thanks to one viral dress. That's the power of your group chat. The ultimate word of mouth. Now a quick word from our sponsor. Upwork. Yeah, it is. Before we had a podcast, we had a newsletter. And the moment that newsletter began growing, it's not when we came up with the clever subject lines with the emojis.

14:33It's when we found the right freelancer. Freelancer built a referral program that grew our newsletter, which helped launch this podcast, which helped us sell our company, which we eventually spun out, and which eventually got us to where we are today. Yeah, that's the story. Having the right expertise at the right time, that can make or break your business. So Upwork is a one-stop platform to find, hire, and pay expert freelancers across web and software development, data and analytics, marketing, business operations, and more. If you need a freelancer, Upwork is where you get it. Thousands of growing businesses already trust Upwork to hire flexible, high-quality freelance talent for everything from one-off projects to ongoing support.

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16:27For our third and final story, the U.S. soccer goalie is a Harvard-trained mathematician. And his secret strategy for penalty kicks could transform your business. Yetis, mark thy calendars. Knockout rounds, World Cup start this Sunday. It transforms from a 48-team group stage tournament to a 32-team knockout tournament. Oh, and the biggest surprise so far, it ain't the Norwegian row. Although that is legendarily cool what those fans do in the stand. It is the United States, which along with fellow hosts Mexico and Canada secured passage to the knockout round and is still kicking. The U.S. played last night, but it was insignificant because they had already clinched the knockout round a week ago.

17:07But besties, the wildest story on Team USA, who is it? What is it, Jack? The goalie Matt Freese, a Harvard graduate. Matt Freese, his mom's a scientist, his dad is a gene therapist. And he spent four years studying economics and statistics in Cambridge. How do you like them yellow cats? After two matches, this data nerd, he's only let in one goal behind him. Even though this is the highest goal scoring World Cup since 1958. So we know what you're wondering, Besties. How has this man defied the scoring odds? By being the Pascal of the pitch. That's right. Matt frees the goalie as literally crunching live trigonometry at the strikers sprinting toward the box each and every game.

17:45According to the Wall Street Journal, this Harvard mathematician conducted an academic study on penalty kicks. This is what we find fascinating. Starting sophomore year, Matt collected data on penalty shots to try to predict if they'd go left, right, or stay in the middle. Because the soccer penalty kick is so random. It's the most random event in all sports. It's kind of a shame that a lot of games end with them. It's like the kicker going to shoot left or right? Like, what does the goalie do? The goalie just guesses and dives one way. Yeah, we've all seen it. You go left, the goalie's just making it up as he goes along.

18:15But with one big data set, Matt Freese told the Wall Street Journal He knows patterns and can predict which way the player's going to kick. Okay, but here's the problem. He won't tell anyone. Yeah, he's keeping it to himself. He says it's his proprietary advantage, which... In fact, he said he will not share his data until he retires from the sport of soccer. And Nick, it's working. It is. He hasn't faced penalty kicks in the World Cup yet, but he saved three penalty kicks in the qualifier last year against Costa Rica. So, besties, Jack and I jumped in T-boy style to the penalty kick data. We found academic papers studying the statistics of penalty kicks.

18:52Yes, we did. And based on those studies, should a goalie dive left or right in order to save the ball? What is the answer, Jack? The answer is neither. That's right. One famous 2007 study analyzed 286 penalty kicks in the top leagues and international tournaments. And if the goalie dives to the left, there's a 14 % chance they'll save the ball. If they dive to the right, there's a 12 % chance of a save. But if the goalie just stays in the middle of the goal during that penalty kick, what's the result, Jack? 33 % chance of saving. We repeat, goalies are two and a half times more likely to stop a shot if they do nothing.

19:25Just stand there and use your body to block the ball. So Jack, what's the business takeaway for our buddies looking at penalty kicks? It's the action bias. It messes with players and with profits. Yetis, this is the biggest breakthrough in soccer strategy since the false nine. And yet this data is completely ignored. The data clearly show that the goalie should not move during a penalty kick, just stay in the middle. And yet almost every goalie does not stay in the middle. And there's a psychological explanation here. It's our bias for action, our impulse to do something. When faced with a choice, our human instincts are to do something.

20:01Fight, flight, or freeze? Most of us fight or flight. Very few of us freeze. Although I'm going to raise my hand here. My therapist would be proud of this. I freeze. I do. Leave a comment if you freeze as well. Now, Vezzie, we see this in soccer, but we also see it in business. When facing decisions, we all tend to act. Even though sometimes the data tells us, do not act. Like, we have to launch that new thingy, or we have to react to that new thingy. Or we should definitely put out a press release right now about that thingy. Soccer goalies and CEOs, they all tend to act. It's just human instinct.

20:33And it kind of helps us feel like we're justifying our jobs. But doing nothing must be considered with equal weight alongside the action options as well. Quick example here, Nick. Five years ago, every car company put everything into electric. Might have made sense to do nothing back then. To do nada. Besties, when faced with the decision, remember what a goalie should do in a penalty kick. Jack, could you whip up the takeaways for us to head into the weekend? Because Micron's jacking up prices for memory chips, Apple had to raise prices by a record amount. The memory fee. If you make memory chips, you're soaring.

21:08But if you need memory chips, you're sinking. Don't forget. For our second story, Hill House Home hit$110 million in revenue thanks to their viral nap dress. Which, according to the CEO, went viral thanks to the group chat effect. And our third and final story, Harvard mathematician goalie Matt Fries, his specialty is penalty kicks, although he keeps his strategy secret. The data, it says do nothing. As a business person, you got to consider it too. But besties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, Taylor Swift and Travis Kelsey's wedding next week. Location, Madison Square Garden, according to the New York Times.

21:44Wild reporting by the Times. Apparently, Taylor Swift's team filed a permit with New York City for an event on July 4th at Madison Square Garden. And they discovered she hired an event planner in Manhattan who just got a permit for a 1 ,000-person tent in the city. The tent's not in the arena, by the way. It's right outside the arena. Probably like the security checkpoint, I'm guessing. Okay, but this is the wildest, Jack. The Times also ID'd multiple Chiefs football players booking hotels in New York City 4th of July weekend. Coincidence? We think not. No. And second, the protein wars rage on.

22:19Now, Chobani is accused of Regina Georgian their protein numbers. The$20 billion private yogurt giant Chobani has been accused of embellishing their nutritional facts. Now, remember, David Barr was accused of the same thing, but it turned out that was incorrect. They actually had accurate protein numbers. Protein. It's popular with GLP-1 users, but Nick, it's also popular with class action lawyers, apparently. Yeah, we'll let you know if this was a real Regina George. And finally, France had its hottest day ever on Wednesday. Southern France hit 112 degrees Fahrenheit this week. Even Napoleon was sweating.

22:52Good luck to the advertisers and creators in Cannes right now, by the way. Yeah, get this, though. Only 25 % of French households have an air conditioner, compared to 90 % of American households. The French don't like air conditioning. It's too expensive. It's bad for the climate, but they might have to reconsider. Just not possible. Now time for the best fact yet. This one sent in by legendary Eddie Jason Geiger from lovely Buffalo, New York. Push and play. Guy from Buffalo here with your best fact yet. Nick and Jack recently pointed out that many Europeans have discovered a love for ranch dressing.

23:26Hidden Valley quickly picked up on this fad and launched an international search for Ranchbassadors. What most people don't realize is that Ranch flavor is already available in some products like Doritos instead of Europe. But instead of Cool Ranch, they call it Cool American Flavor. However, as a proud Buffalo resident, this message serves as a public service announcement. Ranch is for lettuce. Blue cheese is for wings. Hidden Valley's biggest secret is that they're made by Clorox, the bleach company. Avoid that bleached out taste and do what people in the home of the chicken wing prefer. For those who want to know, Buffalo prefers Rudy's.

24:12It's available at every grocery store in Western New York. Take that, ranch! To be clear, he submitted this via a YouTube video. and I'm so glad he mentioned a chicken wing because Buffalo branding was all over this YouTube video. I'm more concerned that the entire world now thinks default American flavor, Jack, is just the ranch. Yetis, you look fantastic today. Jack, you are glowing with all those Pride and Prejudice references. I saw that flex. I hear you over there. All right, I got two CTAs here, Nick. First, hit me. Select auto-download on your preferred podcast platform because that helps the show and make sure you don't miss an episode.

24:48But second, drop a link to this episode in your group chat. If you know, you know. And you know.

25:00And before we go, a happy birthday to legendary Yeti Rafi the Rothster Roth, listening on the way to school in Port Washington, Long Island, and got his social studies teacher to become a Yeti too. Happy birthday to Tanner Buckleau, training in the U.S. Navy and about to pass his primaries. And Ross Thompson, the golf king of Brooklyn, has got the best birthday yet. Happy 10th birthday to Easton Andrews in Indiana. And Tom Snyder, happy 36th down in Austin, Texas. Happy 36th birthday to Elvis Valdez in Stamford, Connecticut. And Michael Martel, my dad from Schenectady, living it up in New York City.

25:34Happy birthday. Thank you for such a fun week just now. In-house lawyer for the best one yet. We haven't paid those legal bills yet. And a happy birthday to Meg Dwyer, my mother-in-law, celebrating from Naples to Nantucket. Congratulations to Kimora Morris, heading to junior high school with honors in Los Angeles. And John and Kate, they've been to both of our New York City live shows, are now celebrating a five-year wedding anniversary down in Charleston. Charleston, where Nick got engaged, by the way. Crush those oysters, enjoy the hush puppies, and we can't wait to see you at the third show.

26:06This is Jack. I own stock of Lyft, and Nick and I both own Stock and Apple. 98 of the top 100 U.S. accounting firms trust Bill to handle BillPay processes. Why? Because our tools are built on over a trillion dollars of secure payments. We're not just moving money. We're powering financial workflows for half a million customers. That's a level of expertise you just can't fake. Ready to talk with an expert? Visit Bill.com slash proven to get started and grab a$150 gift card as a thank you. Terms and conditions apply. See offer page for details.