🏇 “Unpredict” — Kentucky Derby’s bet ban. Amazon’s AI podcasts. 818 tequila surprise. +Hershey’s Ozempic breath

0:28This is Nick. night, baby. You better get in a ready position, kids. I want to see some hustle out there. Three fantastic stories for today's pod. Best in the business. What do we got, Jack? For our first story, the Kentucky Derby is this weekend. It's filled with big hats, big drinks, and big bedding. Except one surprise guest won't be there. Prediction markets. And based on the data we just saw, that's a good thing for your wallet. Yeah, we got you back on this one. For our second story, Amazon's newest thing is AI-generated podcasts. Wow. Fake hosts talk about real products. Besties, this represents a new thing every business will be tempted by.

1:03It's a sloppertunity. And our third and final story. No one in Gen Z drinks alcohol anymore, except, apparently, Kardashian fans. Kendall Jenner's 818 tequila is defying sobriety and just got an investment from Big Alcohol. But yet is before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. I mean, what a mix of stories. Hey, Walder, pod son, you got to step into that. But yetis, if you smell something strange this weekend, it could be Ozempic breath. The surprise side effect of GLP-1s is apparently nausea, dry mouth, and burping. Along with a bad case of bad breath. And the surprise side effect of this surprise side effect?

1:40What is it, Nick? Jack, it's Ozempic users chewing more gum. You're going from Wagovi to Wrigley. You're going from Manjaro to Mentos. If you're on GLP-1s, you stopped eating real fruit, you started chewing juicy fruit. It turns out no one enjoys this bad Ozepic breath except for Hershey. Because Hershey's, in addition to chocolate, owns a half a dozen chewing gum brands. And their icebreaker sales, they're up 8 % last quarter. The iconic minty gum is now Hershey's third best brand. Besties TikTok sales are at all-time highs. Altoids are in overdrive right now. Ozepic breath is driving us away from Doritos towards Dentine Ice.

2:16Now, yeah, it's Jack and I call this a piggybacked product. Don't we, Jack? Chewing gum isn't the trend. It's just piggybacking off the trend. So Novo Nordisk, if you're listening, and we know you're listening, it is time for you to acquire Trident. Four out of five dentists recommend the deal. Bubbly Bubbly Jack, let's hear our three stories.

2:50Cause we ready to go. We can't wait no more. So just start the show.

2:57Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor.

3:08Monarch. All right, Yetis. You're never going to be able to guess how many accounts Jack has linked to Monarch. 31. Are there even that many like financial products out there? Hey, Yetis, He's got credit cards, checking accounts, brokerage accounts, retirement accounts. 529 college savings accounts for each kid and my nieces and nephews, Nick. Okay, I'm rounding up. Does that get us to 31? Where are we? Don't forget my mortgage, my house, the car I own. They're all linked and all their values in Monarch. You see, besties, Jack actually linked everything to Monarch one year ago during a little bit of spring cleaning.

3:38Until I used Monarch, I had a very messy, very chaotic spreadsheet, but now they're clean, synced, and automatic. Basically, Jack went full Marie Kondo on his finances and he did it with Monarch, which can do your financial spring cleaning for you. One dashboard that gets your entire financial life organized. No more clutter, no more mess, no more scattered logins. Just logins, investments, property, and more all in one place. Get your first year at Monarch for half off just 50 bucks with promo code T-Boy. Use code T-B-O-Y at Monarch.com to get your first year half off at just$50. That's 50 % off your first year at Monarch.com with code T-Boy.

4:15Make Mother's Day even more special at Whole Foods Market. Kick off brunch or dinner with quality cheese and charcuterie with no synthetic nitrates. Then go seafood. There's an abundance on sale at Whole Foods Market, where it's all sustainable while caught or responsibly farmed. At the bakery, grab seasonal treats like their strawberry pretzel cream pie, and you can't go wrong with the ready-to-heat quiche Lorraine, deviled eggs, and fresh-cut fruits to go. Celebrate mom with Whole Foods Market.

4:49For our first story, the surprise guest missing from the Kentucky Derby this weekend, it's prediction markets. And that's actually a good thing, because based on new data Nick and I just saw, when you predict, you lose money. We can predict it. Besties, let's start, though, with the most hilarious horse names of this year's Kentucky Derby. Jack, who we got? Channel McGlovin, because one horse is called Right to Party. That's a good one. I like it. I like it. I like it. Another is Further Ado. That's solid. That's a good one. And Litmus Test. I like Litmus Test, Jack. Oh, and besties, if you want the 49 to 1 odds on the underdog at this Kentucky Derby, you'll be focused on Pavlovian.

5:27That's your horse. He's the underdog because his jockey is huge. He's 5 '7", which is the biggest at the Kentucky Derby. It's a giant jockey. Now, horse racing actually built the American gambling and sports betting infrastructure in 1978 with a federal law. That's right. America's gambling industry is based on horse betting, and the Kentucky Derby is its burning man. Which is exactly why Churchill Downs, the home of the Kentucky Derby, got nervous as prediction markets started their rise. This was fascinating to us. The prediction markets are not letting you bet on the Kentucky Derby this year.

6:02You can't predict that Pavlonian will win it all. You can only bet that he will on a sports betting app. Because, according to ESPN, Churchill Downs asked Kalshi and Polly Market to keep horse racing off of their prediction platforms. Why? Well, because in Kentucky, one and a half cents of every dollar wagered is taxed. And those horse betting tax revenues are critical to the industry and the state of Kentucky. Those tax revenues fund the prize money for the races. They fund the racetrack operations and they fund the breeding programs for the horses. You see, besties, if people predicted instead of bet on the Kentucky Derby, then Kentucky would be losing that revenue from the gambling taxes.

6:42And Polly Market and Kalshi don't want to be blamed for killing America's horse racing industry. Or killing the seersucker industry. But besties, as Jack and I dove in T-boy style, it is also probably a good thing that you can't predict on right to party to win the Kentucky Derby this year. Because you would lose. If you predict, you'll lose with two key asterisks Nick and I are about to get into. And we can predict it. You see, Bloomberg just did a study on who wins and who loses when they predict on Polymarket. And Bloomberg found that a majority of the profits on Polymarket were made by a small group of, get this, automated bots.

7:18Yeah. Oh, and those bots winnings, they come from us humans losing. The same study found that humans overall, all human beings with a pulse, lost$131 million in total money on Polymarket since January 2025. Sit down, stand up, and didn't see that coming, Jack. Bots made lots of money. Humans lost lots of money. And on top of it, a separate study found that since 2022, 69 % of traders on Polymarket lost money. And the top 1 % winningest traders took home three quarters of the total profits. And again, those were probably bots. But that's not even the wildest part, is it, Jack? No, it's not. because according to an anti-corruption group, big long-shot predictions on military attacks are correct 52 % of the time on these platforms.

8:06Specifically, when people bet$2 ,500 or more on military events with a 35 % or less likelihood of happening, aka a long-shot prediction, those predictions actually happen 52 % of the time. That doesn't check. So the translation here is that besides bots, the big winners on prediction markets are people with insider information on military activity. Just like that Green Beret who was charged just last month with doing exactly that. Regular people without insider info lose on prediction markets. That's the takeaway here. Side note yetis, the US Senate just voted unanimously yesterday to ban themselves from using prediction markets.

8:46Because they have so much insider information. And prediction markets are adding new detection tools. They've been rolling them out all month long. They know that these corrupt bets are a problem. But in the meantime, no one could have ever predicted a 5 '7 jockey at this year's Kentucky Derby. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies wondering about predictions? It's the two-account rule. One account for investing, one for predicting. Do not mix them. Yetis, since predictions are now baked into investing apps like Robinhood, Webull, and Coinbase, you might get the impression that prediction markets are a way to invest.

9:19But the data from this story shows they're not. Investing is a way to grow your money, while prediction markets and gambling are a way to, on average, especially if you're not a bot or an insider, shrink your money. The only reason you should bet on sports or predict on prediction markets is for the entertainment of it. So besties, if you do want to use prediction markets, then we would suggest a two-account rule for you to do so. Keep one account for your investing to grow your money and another account with funny money to eventually lose because that's what happens when you predict. Because when you add it all up, predicting is just not investing.

9:51So they don't belong in the same account. For our second story, Amazon just launched AI Podcasts for every product they sell. And you can talk to their fake AI mini podcast host. Oh my God, I can't believe I said it. It's the world's least necessary podcast, but it's a slow opportunity that Amazon couldn't resist. Oh, but yeah, to tell this story, we got to sprinkle on some context because Amazon just renounced like the biggest earnings, like the earnings that were so big, you got to lift with your legs, now you're back when you hear these things. No company in the world had larger Q1 revenues than Amazon did.

10:28$181 billion. Jack, sprinkle on more context, please. Only six companies in all of Europe have annual revenue as large as Amazon's quarterly revenue. You see the big tech giants, they break the measuring stick. Not possible. Amazon made$30 billion in profit this quarter. More than half of that, though, was from not selling you anything. Because Amazon notched a$17 billion gain just on its investment in Anthropical. Just a few years ago, that'd be the biggest quarterly profit ever. And now it's like a footnote in Amazon's earnings. But we should point out that the core Amazon.com store that you order from with Pime still makes a majority of Amazon's revenue.

11:07So, so Amazon launched millions of podcasts. mini pods with two AI hosts talking about each of the millions of products available on Amazon. Oh, and you talk to those fake AI hosts. Let's explain through a real example that I went through today. So I just listened to one of these fake podcasts for an air fryer that I recently bought on Amazon. And now we should point out that was only available on the mobile app, by the way, you can't listen to these mini podcasts on desktop. But if you open your Amazon app and you're on this air fryer, there's a button that says, here are the highlights. And there's a little symbol that says it's one minute and 47 seconds long.

11:45So Jack listened and... Two fake people talking about this real air fryer product for just under two minutes, a mini podcast. Vesties, this has actually been around since last year, but now you can join the mini fake podcast conversation in that Amazon app. Like you could tap a button to ask a question and these faux hosts will try to answer it for you. Get some weird accents too. You'll be like, hey, does this air fryer make noise? And they'll be like, no way, let's kick it to my co-host over there. They don't answer here correctly, by the way. No, they don't. But the main source of the information that this AI is using to create this random mini product podcast?

12:20It's the 3 ,000 customer reviews that people have left on this air fryer on Amazon. That's right, besties. Amazon has turned Rando Rodney in Arkansas's three-star review of that air fryer into a brand new podcast show. Or at least into the research for a brand new fake podcast. Now look, we get it, right? Like I guess some people would rather listen than read. That's why we do a podcast. Yeah, instead of reading through a hundred reviews to try to understand a product, let AI summarize them into audio so you can clean dishes while researching your next air fryer. Okay, but I'm sorry, Jack. I can't picture myself like doing the laundry and like demanding Amazon create a fake podcast about a diaper rash cream review so that I can like order it and save 30 seconds of time on that.

13:00But Nick, get this. 39 % of the new podcasts launched in the last week were AI-generated podcasts. Besties, the pod slop is real. And Jack and I are real, we should point out, by the way, too. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at Amazon? Introducing slop opportunities. Zero cost, but potentially one more dollar in sales. You see, Eddies, when considering a new product, you compare the potential revenue of that item to the expected cost. and that is how you calculate the ROI. If the revenues are more than the costs, that's a positive ROI. That's good. You get a green light to launch the thing.

13:36Well, interestingly, AI lowers the cost of digital content to close to zero. You basically just got to pay for the compute. Which leads to the sloppertunity. When AI makes the cost of content so close to zero that any feature generating even a single dollar passes the launch test. It's an opportunity, but it's a sloppy one. So we call these sloppertunities. They're nearly infinite. it, so prepare for a flood of them from American companies, Yetis. A slot opportunity that Nick and I have passed on so far is using AI to translate this podcast into different languages. You know, for almost zero cost, Jack and I could get the best one yet out there in Bulgarian and a hundred other languages for you.

14:15And if one Bulgarian listens and consumes one ad, that'd be a positive ROI thing for Nick and me to launch. And now, besties, Jack and I have passed on that slot opportunity, but Amazon just went for it in a big way. A slot opportunity, something you can launch for zero marginal cost that might generate$1 down the line. And if you would like an imperfect Norwegian version of T-Boy, now is the moment to drop it in the comments while we're on commercial break. Now, a quick word from our sponsor. Top hats, baseball hats, Von Dutch hats. We wear so many hats on this podcast. Honestly, we're not great at all of them.

14:49No, we've been avoiding hiring someone to wear those hats instead of us, especially the Von Dutch one, because hiring and training can take forever. Well, I'm proud to say that we are hiring right now at T-Boy, and this is a job for Indeed Sponsored Jobs. Because Sponsored Jobs posted directly on Indeed are 95 % more likely to report a hire than non-sponsored jobs. So besties spend less time searching and more time actually interviewing candidates who check all your boxes, less stress, less time, more results. When you need the right person to cut through the chaos, this is a job for Indeed Sponsored Jobs.

15:19And listeners of the show will get a$75 sponsored job credit to help get your job the premium status it deserves at Indeed.com slash podcast. So just go to Indeed.com slash podcast right now and support our show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast. That's Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Need a hiring hero? This is a job for Indeed-sponsored jobs. This episode is brought to you by Built, the intelligent finance platform that helps businesses scale with proven results. Look, Yeti's paying and getting paid. That is a pain for small and medium businesses out there.

15:53Did you send the invoice? Did they see it? Did you remember to remind them to remember to pay it? Oh, I totally forgot, Jack. Besties, if you drop the ball on any of those, you don't get paid and you're missing out on cash flow. And unless your customers are mind readers, which they aren't, they're probably just busy and forgot. You shouldn't have to chase them down. Powered by AI, Bill does all that simply and automated so that you don't have to. ACH, check, credit card, international wire transfers, they probably do carrier pigeon. Bill lets you pay and get paid how you want. Bill is the intelligent finance platform trusted by nearly half a million businesses and over 90 of the top 100 U.S.

16:27accounting firms to manage, move, and maximize their money. They've securely processed over a trillion dollars in real transactions. That is proven infrastructure you can actually trust. Talk with an expert at bill.com slash proven and get a$250 gift card as a thank you. That's bill.com slash proven. Terms and conditions apply. See offer page for details. For our third and final story, the one alcohol young people actually drink right now, it's Kendall Jenner's 818 Tequila. Now it's getting an investment from Big Liquor because the secret ingredient in 818 Tequila is no Kendall Jenner. But yet he is, let's talk about Coachella for a sec, because Coachella these days, it's more like brand-chella.

17:08Everyone from The Gap to Barbie to American Express are at this music fest. But once again, the brand with the big The biggest buzz at Coachella was Kendall Jenner's 818 tequila. The influencers tequila company basically headlined alongside Sabrina Carpenter. Launched five years ago, and it's now one of the top 10 selling tequila brands in America. 818, the area code in LA where she grew up. Now you've got three of her 10 digits. But yet is at this point, the Kardashian-Jenner dynasty has launched enough CPG products to open a grocery store. Let's keep track. Please. Kim's Skims. Uh-huh. Kylie's Cody makeup.

17:42There's two. Khloe's Protein Cloud Popcorn and Kendall's 818 Tequila. And Nick, that's just the tip of the iceberg. Yeah, great point, Jack. It totally is. So we're calling it Yetis. The Kardashian-Jenners are the new Kraft Heinz. But here's the news. 818 just got an investment from Sazerac, one of the biggest alcohol companies in the world. Sazerac, they're worth$6 billion. They own 525 brands from Fireball to Goldschlager. Terms weren't disclosed, but this is another huge financial windfall from one of the Kardashian-Jenner's venture companies. And the timing is shocking because sobriety is way up, alcohol is way down, and it's especially among Gen Z.

18:19And yet 818 tequila sales keep popping off, especially with Gen Z. We were fascinated. We had to figure out why. Tequila sales have been flat the last couple of years, yet 818 has grown 40 % in 2024 and 16 % in 2025. So how has 818 convinced the under 30 crowd to loosen up and take a shot? A series of strategic moves, that's how. It's impressive stuff. First, they dropped their price by 33%. They traded profit margins for popularity. And then they noticed Americans drinking at home to save money on expensive bar drinks. You know it. So they launched an apparel line for your at-home cocktail party.

18:52It's the 818 Cocktail Attire Collection, upscale pajamas for gossiping and gimlets with the girls on a night. But wildest of all was an idea inspired by La Boo Boo dolls. Oh baby. They turned their liquor into a handbag accessory. 818 launched mini bottle keychains that strap right onto that Kate Spade pocketbook. And it all worked. Yes, it did. The one drink 25-year-old Fiona will make an exception to, and drink is 818 on the rocks. Apple, you should have named Chris as the CEO. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over at 818 Tequila? Some brands yell, smarter brands whisper. Now, Yetis, you would think that the number one marketing message of Kendall Jenner's tequila would be Kendall Jenner.

19:33Her sister Kim put her name in the name Skims. Yeah, she did. Khloe spells her cloud protein popcorn the same way Khloe spelled, K-H-L. And yet, Kendall's 818 tequila has zero signs it's associated with her. There's basically nothing about her on the bottle. The only thing is on the back, there's a tiny KJ initials. That's it. That's it. It's totally discreet. In fact, they are so silent on Kendall Jenner at 818 tequila that Jack bought some without knowing it was Kendall Jenner's tequila. I brought it back for margaritas, and Teddy's like, oh, classic Jack, you're so basic with the Kendall Jenner tequila.

20:10I didn't even know. Jack's little brother thought it was funny, but she played me like a fiddle. Besties, it's counterintuitive, it's risky, and it's an unexpected strategy, but it absolutely works. Kendall Jenner's tequila is defying the drop in alcohol sales by ignoring their front woman, Kendall Jenner. Some brands yell, smarter ones whisper. Jack, could y 'all whip up the takeaways for us for the real Friday? The Kentucky Derby will not be on prediction markets, where, by the way, mostly bots and insiders win anyway. Remember the two-account rule. If you got an account on Robinhood, have one for investing, one for predicting, because they're not the same thing.

20:44For our second story, Amazon now has a mini podcast with fake AI hosts to summarize each product on the platform. This is a slopper-tunity. Amazon just couldn't resist it. And our third and final story is Kendall Jenner's tequila. 818 got an investment from Sazerac. And they've defied the drop in alcohol sales with subtlety, not celebrity. But besties, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, Airbnb hosts have been splurging to prep for the World Cup fans, but those fans, they haven't booked anything yet. A big reason for the lack of excitement from fans for the World Cup, the crazy high ticket prices.

21:20Get this, Team USA's opening game in Los Angeles is so expensive, there are tens of thousands of seats that are just reportedly still available. No one got them. For the host team in the host country, Team USA can't fill the seats. I hope we're proven wrong. In the meantime, I'm looking a little bit more like the greed cup. Second, good news for your TSA situation. The Department of Homeland Security has finally gotten funded. That's right. Longest shutdown in government history. 70 days of this thing. The funding does not include more funding for immigration enforcement, which was the sticking point for the last 70 days.

21:50But it does mean our TSA agents' paychecks are safe and secure, and you should be breezing through there. and laptops out, shoes off. And finally, the weird year for Lululemon continues. Get this, Lululemon's founder is now so broken up with Lululemon, he's advising their arch rivals. Chip Wilson was pushed out of Lululemon years ago, basically for saying stuff that was like, not CEO appropriate. But he's been ripping on him ever since and his latest move, advising Lulu's rivals like Viore and Allo. Telling them how to beat Lululemon, the company he founded and once CEOed. Now time for the best fact yet.

22:27This one sent in by Savannah Westwood, the legendary Yeti of Orlando, Florida. On Saturday at the Kentucky Derby, which starts at like 7 o 'clock. I know technically it's on TV at 3. You're going to be waiting four hours for that race to finally begin. You're pre-gaming at 5. Well, at the Kentucky Derby, you'll be served 120 ,000 mint juleps in one single weekend. That requires 60 ,000 bags of ice, 1 ,000 pounds of fresh mint leaves, and 10 ,000 bottles of bourbon. Now, that mint julep is priced at 18 bucks, which means they bring in$2.16 million in revenue, but the wild history is where the julep began in America.

23:06As a morning drink in the 1800s, farmers throughout America, specifically in the South, would enjoy mint juleps as a breakfast pick-me-up to relax before the day. Yetis, you looked fantastic this week. Jack, du servantastique ut over there. Is that our Bulgarian podcast? It's Norwegian for you look fantastic as well. Although that was human generated because I could tell from all the errors in there. Yeah, it was, yeah, it was, yeah, it was. But besties, celebrate the wins this weekend. And if you haven't yet, the best way you can help grow the show is drop down. Give us five stars for Five Star Friday.

23:40And could I read every review? We can't wait to read yours. So celebrate the wins, Jack and I will see you on Monday.

23:49And before we go, a happy birthday to Abir Roy, the Netflix engineer crushing his birthday down in lovely Los Angeles. Happy birthday to Jess Acevedo, the badass software saleswoman of Austin, Texas. And Talaya Dumoulin, happy birthday over in Oslo, Norway. Happy birthday to Ellie Wan in Monterey, California. This math teacher, the limit does not exist. And science teacher Carlos Benito agrees. His birthday is celebrated up in Seattle. Happy birthday to Angel Morales, a New Yorker taking his son camping for his big birthday weekend. And Emily Erickson, enjoy that birthday over in Detroit. Happy birthday to Christian Lichty in Pennsylvania.

24:26And Monica and Shiva Taramini are celebrating their birthday together as twins. Happy birthday to Dylan Putterbaugh, father to Murphy and Sidney in North Royalton, Ohio. And Neil Desai over in Chicago came to our live show. Great to meet you, man. And would love to hear one final cookie crisp from Jack before we go. Cookie crisp! And Anthony and Danielle, enjoy that one-year wedding anniversary over in Brooklyn. And Christina and Harrison, happy one-year wedding anniversary in Oceanside, California. And to anyone else celebrating something today, make it a T-boy. Celebrate the wins.

25:00This is Jack, Island Stock at Netflix and Amazon, Nick on Stock of Airbnb and Lululemon, and we both own Stock of Apple and Robinhood, as well as some ETFs of the S &P 500. By the way, in case you notice, Jack sold his Airbnb stock. Been waiting a while, man. Been waiting a while.

25:17Hey, this is Adam Grant, host of TED's podcast, Rethinking with Adam Grant. Let me share with you why smart finance leaders turn to Bill. They know that clarity isn't just helpful, it's strategic. As the intelligent finance platform, Bill uses AI to automate the busy work for nearly half a million businesses so they can focus on intentional growth. Eliminate the friction and start scaling with the proven choice. Visit bill.com slash proven to talk with an expert about automating your business finances and get a$250 gift card as a thank you. That's bill.com slash proven. Terms and conditions apply.

25:48See offer page for details.