🛡️ “War-folios” — Iran market reaction. Dutch Bros’ energy. Anthropic’s moral marketing. + Fitbit for farting

0:28This is Nick. game with the in-laws over there. Toasty. Jack also just told me shuffleboard's the new Peloton, but we've got three fantastic stories for today's team war. Jack, what do we got on the pod? For our first story, the war in Iran has expanded to 11 Middle Eastern countries, as well as the stock, oil, and even fashion markets. So Jack and I are looking at your war folio, your stock portfolio during a Middle East war. For our second story, Dutch Bros is now the number three coffee chain in America, but just 10 % of their drinks are actually hot coffee. We'll tell you what they really are.

1:00And our third and final story is the biggest beef in business right now. It's between Anthropic, OpenAI, and the Pentagon. So here is the Shakespearean business question. Can ethics be a competitive advantage? But yetis, before we hit that wonderful mix of stories. Whoa, I mean, what a mix. Love the mix, Jack. Nick, when it comes to technology, the next frontier is actually your rear. That's right, besties, because the most cutting edge new wearable out there is a Fitbit for flatulence. Yeah, what the Apple Watch did for our hearts, this new device does for our farts. More specifically, it's for your gastrointestinal health.

1:35You got kids in the backseat, they're going to love this story. Get this, scientists at the University of Maryland have prototype to sensing device that you clip to the seat of your underwear. Basically, you're placing this thing on the ground zero of your GI tract. And the goal is to measure something we humans have never measured before. The average number of toots from one human being and figure out why some of us pass gas more than others. So they're asking participants to track their food along the way as well and see if it correlates with their farts. Because 40 % of American adults, yes, we're looking at you, you got tummy issues, we hear you.

2:04Guilty. And the key to digestive nirvana could be this Fitbit of farts. So Jack, can we please talk about the demand over there? I can smell it from here. 4 ,000 people have already applied to test version one of this Farty Fitbit. Because besties, we have put a man on the moon. We have split the atom. We have taken seeds out of a watermelon. And yet we still don't know the skinny on the stinky. So finally, science and venture capitalists are getting the answers for us. By the way, the current record, 175 times in one day. But who's counting? You know who you are. Actually, this company's, this company's counting.

2:40Yeah, that is the whole business model. Jack, let's do that three stories. 15 years before this song, two boys from the Northeast met in a dorm. They had an idea to cause a cultural storm. It's the best one yet, but the best is the norm. Jack Nick, that's it. I don't even think they need to practice. 50%, that's a fat tip. T-Boy City on your at list. If you know, you know, cause we ready to go. We can't wait no more, so just start the show.

3:09Start the show. First, a quick word from our sponsor.

3:19Top hats, baseball hats, Von Dutch hats. We wear so many hats on this podcast. Honestly, we're not great at all of them. No, we've been avoiding hiring someone to wear those hats instead of us, especially the Von Dutch one, because hiring and training can take forever. Well, proud to say that we are hiring right now at T-Boy, and this is a job for Indeed Sponsored Jobs. Because sponsored jobs posted directly on Indeed are 95 % more likely to report a hire than non-sponsored jobs. So besties spend less time searching and more time actually interviewing candidates who check all your boxes, less stress, less time, more results.

3:49When you need the right person to cut through the chaos, this is a job for Indeed sponsored jobs. And listeners of the show will get a$75 sponsored job credit to help get your job the premium status it deserves at indeed.com slash podcast. So just go to Indeed.com slash podcast right now and support our show by saying you heard about Indeed on this podcast. That's Indeed.com slash podcast. Terms and conditions apply. Need a hiring hero? This is a job for Indeed-sponsored jobs. So yet, he's Jack's instituted a new business model for his Airbnb hosting. And Jack, what is it? Here it is. Host equals guest.

4:24Yes. I funnel all my revenue from being a host on Airbnb into one bank account and use that same bank account to book travel for myself. Basically, it's Jack's host guest bank account for when he hosts and when he's a guest somewhere else. When I lived in the city neck, every time my apartment was available on Airbnb, it would get booked like that. I mean, think about how often are you away from home? You got the bridesmaid, you got the shower, you got the bachelorette, you got the wedding. That's three weekends away just for one wedding right there. Plus, you got to visit your mother. Naturally, well, that's a lot of potential hosting that you could be doing on Airbnb.

4:56Let someone else stay at your place while you're away. Take that host money and spend it when you're a guest somewhere else. Have a business model like me. If you want to travel more, hosting more is a great way to make it happen financially. Your home might be worth more than you think. Find out how much at Airbnb.com slash host.

5:15For our first story, the war in Iran is already affecting markets in predictable and surprising ways. So we want to talk about your war folio. And want to know what to do? Well, don't pay attention to finance and fundamentals. Pay attention to generals and geopolitics. Yetis on Monday, 48 hours after the first strikes, global financial markets got their first reactions to the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran. And stocks started out the day lower. Yes, they did. Because military spending is not an ideal way to grow the economy. But more importantly, something we've warned you about before, it's the U word, uncertainty.

5:51We already had a ton of uncertain question marks in this economy. Inflation, tariffs, AI, the midterm elections. I mean, and nothing gives investors the ick like uncertainty. So add that to the cocktail. War in the Middle East, including two of the biggest militaries in the region and the world's superpower. So the most obvious sector impacted by this war is the oil market. Oil was already up 20 % so far this year as the U.S. built up a military presence. It jumped another 7 % on Monday. Because Iran is ranked somewhere between number six and number nine in the world in terms of oil production.

6:24And that just came to a complete halt. Plus, Iran's retaliation has attacked seven major oil-producing countries with drone missiles already. Jack, you see, one Saudi refinery was already hit by an Iranian drone just yesterday. And also just yesterday, the Strait of Hormuz was shut down by Iran. That's where one third of the world's oil by sea actually flows. Add it all up, and several Wall Street analysts are seeing oil rise to 100 bucks a barrel if this drags on for the first time since the pandemic. And oil seeps into every nook and cranny of our economy. Every little bit. So, besties, let's pause the pod for a sec.

7:01That's the macro situation here, right, Jack? Stocks are down, oil prices is up, but what about the micro situation? Yeah, let's go from like a satellite view to a street view, like from the coach's box to the quarterback's huddle. What do we see, Jack? Looking at the war folio, stocks of oil exporting nations, like Saudi Arabia or the United Arab Emirates, stocks of those countries could actually rise because they sell oil, which is now more expensive. Because higher oil prices are good for oil producers. So ExxonMobil, yeah, their stock popped 4 % to open the day on Monday. But oil importing nations that don't have their own version of Texas or the Permian Basin in their backyard.

7:36Yeah, we're talking like Japan, India, the European Union. They would be hurt the most if oil prices remain high. Oh, and Jack, can we please talk about the airline and cruise line stocks as a result of that? Well, one-third of their operating costs are jet fuel or oil. Those are oil-binging businesses. So, Delta stock fell 3 % to start the week, and Carnival dropped 7 % on where their business model just got stuck in the middle seat. Basically, the air they breathe is now 25 % more expensive than the beginning of the year. And speaking of airlines, Jack, one of Iran's early targets, who was it?

8:10Interestingly, the Dubai airport. I had a friend whose flight was just canceled. They are stuck indefinitely because Dubai's air quarter was closed. The people in charge of Iran must be thinking, if they can disrupt international air travel, that gives them some sort of leverage against the United States and Israel right now. So Iran is targeting transportation. And since a lot of the world's trade goes through that Strait of Hormuz just outside of Iran, your Timu Hall could be TBD. A top story in fashion right now is the war in Iran. Sheehan already proactively sent emails to customers telling them to expect delays.

8:43And by the way, like Jack said, oil seeps into every part of the economy. So higher oil prices can cause higher overall inflation. Yeah, we've seen this before. As the price of oil rises, literally the price of everything rises. Even Chipotle, they got to get their avocados from Mexico, that's not getting your local burrito without a truck. And higher inflation, that might put pressure on the Fed to keep interest rates higher longer. So yeah, this could end up affecting your home too. I mean, Jack, you were just talking about refinancing your home this summer. The war in Iran, not good for mortgage rates.

9:14And just to put a bow on top of all of this, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, told us yesterday that he expects a higher risk of terror and cyber attacks as a result of the war in Iran. Quite a bow. So Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies looking at the war in Iran and their war foyers? Now's the time to listen to generals and geopolitics, not finance or fundamentals. Now, Eddies, Jack and I follow Ian Bremmer of the Eurasia Group. And funny story, I actually ran into him on Nantucket last summer, Jack. And so I started chatting with him and just told him we love following him. And very nice guy, also a very nerdy guy.

9:49Well, he specializes in geopolitical risks to the markets. And this is wild. In his list of top global risks for 2026, comes out every January. Everyone looks at that list. Iran wasn't even mentioned. He didn't even mention it. It goes to show that nobody knows what's going to happen. But the biggest driver of how this war affects your business and wallets, it's what actually happens in Iran. Now, there's some nuance here. Active generals are under political pressure to paint a rosy picture of the situation. Former generals give a different perspective, although they may have some negativity bias.

10:21But the most critical question to everything is, will this be a long, drawn-out, expensive Middle East war, like Iraq and Afghanistan in the 2000s? Or will it be a swift victory, like Operation Desert Storm in the 1990s? Finance and fundamentals won't tell us anything about that question. But generals and geopolitics do. For our second story, Dutch Bros is now the third largest coffee chain in America, but it's not actually a coffee chain. Dutch Bros is just cosplaying as a coffee chain. Yes, they are. Hot coffee is just 10 % of their business. But Besties first, last month, we went to the Starbucks Investor Day, got to meet the CEO.

11:02And you know what's the first thing Jack told me about the guy? I forget what I told you. He said, this dude is locked in. Nick, he had a great blazer that was the same color as Starbucks green. I love that he did that firm handshake. That dude is locked in. Because Besties, Starbucks owns 48 % of the U.S. coffee market by sales. But their last five years have been their decaffeinated era. And Starbucks isn't just feeling the heat from Dahlia and Dunkin', are they, Nick? No, no, no, no, no. Starbucks is feeling the heat from the bros. The Dutch bros. Dutch bros, founded by third-generation dairy farmers in Oregon, who happen to have some extra riz over on the side.

11:37Yeah, they're now up to 1 ,100 locations in the$9 billion stock market value. That's more than a lift. Dutch bros is now the number three coffee chain in America by revenue, with drinks that sound like WWE pro wrestlers. I'm sorry, who ordered the Annihilator or the Double Torture? Jack, can I interest you in the Talker, the Kicker? $2 million of revenue per location per year? That's twice as good as Starbucks. Maybe it's because they call their baristas broistas, but either way, this yet is this, is what Jack and I find fascinating about the Dutch Bros. Despite being in the same industry as Starbucks and trying to beat Starbucks in their own game, Dutch Bros has made the opposite corporate strategic decisions.

12:18Yeah, we got some wild examples here. First, Starbucks is the third place. It's the place to hang, to nap, to write that great next American novel. Dwell is actually a KPI that Starbucks management pursues. True story. We've told you about it. And yet, every Dutch Bros location has a drive-thru. In fact, some are drive-thru only or have a pickup window. There's not a table at the whole company. Another example? Well, the majority of Starbucks sales happen in the morning. It's become part of your work habit. But the majority of Dutch Bros sales happen in the afternoon. It's a sweet treat. But the biggest difference between these two chains is something Dutch Bros just revealed to the Wall Street Journal.

12:53Dutch Bros confess they're not actually a coffee chain. True story. They're an energy drink chain. Get this. 90 % of Dutch Bros drinks are served cold. Cup of Joe? That's less than 10 % of their sales. They're all about the energy drinks. Caffeine, but from not the bean. You want more numbers here? Here we go. Custom energy drinks? What does that look like at Dutch Bros, Jack? One out of every four orders. True. They developed their own proprietary energy drink brand called Rebel. Yeah. And you can get it frozen. You can get it every color of the rainbow. You can get it with boba tea on top, boba balls.

13:27You can get it punched in your face if you want. It's just like how Starbucks owns Frappuccino IP. Dutch Bros owns its own energy drink brand. And the reason is simple. The market for energy drinks is growing faster than the market for coffee is. So basically, put your money where the mojo is. And that's not a bad reason to own Dutch Bro Stock. Right. But also, given the record high coffee bean prices out there, a sugar energy drink? Oh, that is a profit puppy. Another reason to own Dutch Bro Stock. Although a reason not to is it's the only coffee chain with a defibrillator on hand with every Broista.

13:58And now we know why. True. If a customer walks out with a large gummy bear lemonade with 111 grams of sugar in there, that's a real number. You might want to proactively call the ambulance for that customer. It's the same amount of sugar as 10 Krispy Kreme glazed donuts. Does a jar of raw sugar count as an energy drink? Jack, that's not a drink. That's a Halloween trick-or-treat bag. So what's the takeaway for our energy drink buddies over at Dutch Bros? Dutch Bros. It's actually a cosplay company. Now, Yetis, you know cosplay. Jack does it on weekends. It's when people dress up as their favorite characters like superheroes.

14:34Well, a cosplay company dresses up as an industry that's not actually their core business. For example, the New York Times, they're not really a news company. They're a gaming and cooking company because the majority of their profits do not come from news subscriptions. Amazon, it's not actually an e-commerce company. No, the majority of their profits come from cloud computing and advertising. And Dutch Bros just isn't a coffee chain. It's an energy drink drive-thru. It just dresses up like a coffee company because you'd never admit going to an energy drink chain every day. Sometimes Yetis, a brand masks their true core business.

15:07They wear a corporate costume. And we call that a cosplay company. Now, a quick word from our sponsor. Monarch. When I had student debt, I tracked my progress on an Excel spreadsheet I manually updated each month. Oh, I was Jack a spreadsheet jockey because when he was paying off his student debt, Monarch didn't exist yet. Well, one year ago, I proudly killed that spreadsheet I'd been building for 12 years. RIP, spreadsheet. Because Monarch is a way better solution. All your financial accounts are linked to Monarch. Every credit card, checking account, brokerage account, even our mortgages, lie balances updated in real time.

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16:15Use code T-boy at Monarch.com for half off your first year. That's 50 % off your first year at Monarch.com with code T-boy. NetSuite by Oracle. Yetis, on our show, you know, we love to sprinkle on some context. Because news doesn't mean anything if you don't have a sense of history, the competitive situation, et cetera. Yada, yada, yada. Well, it's the same with AI. If your AI tool doesn't know anything about your biz, then it's not going to be the best one yet. That's why we're pumped to promote NetSuite by Oracle. It's helping over 43 ,000 businesses figure out how AI can work for them. NetSuite is actually the number one cloud ERP connected to your entire enterprise.

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17:21Netsuite.com slash tboy. For our third and final story, Anthropic, OpenAI, and the Pentagon are in a high-stakes game of the summer I turned pretty, basically. And these are brand-defining moments for the leaders of AI. We are seeing who they really are right now. Spoiler, Anthropic is like Apple. OpenAI is like Zuck. But yet he's on Friday. The U.S. government declared war on Anthropic. I feel like we need a record scratch here. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth designated the clawed owner Anthropic as a, get this, supply chain risk. A supply chain risk is a designation we've only ever given to foreign companies, not a U.S.

18:06company like Anthropic. So it looks that, like Harvard University, Anthropic is being punished for refusing to bend on a core principle. And this could really hurt. Oh yeah, because Hegseth demands any company doing business with the U.S. government not do business with Anthropic. That's a supply chain risk. That's what happens. But Jack, this could also really help Anthropic, right? Cloud is number one in the app store right now. It seems like they're getting a ban bump situation. So either way, with all this beefing, Anthropic said it would sue to challenge the government's supply chain risk designation and basically wear that scarlet letter until it's over.

18:40Or get the scarlet letter removed is what they're suing for. But Jack, funny thing, who's loving this beefing right now? OpenAI is, Nick. Sam Altman swooped in to sign his own deal with the DoD literally hours after Anthropic got blacklisted by them. And what's Sam Altman thinking, Jack? And if you could put this in Mean Girls context, I would appreciate it. He's thinking it's better to be in the plastics and hating life than to be out of the plastics. Well, but side note, by the way, besties, despite the breakup, the Department of Defense actually used Anthropic in their attacks on Iran. You see, there's a six-month wind down to this whole relationship.

19:17But the big question you must be wondering in the story, what was OpenAI willing to do with the government that Anthropic wasn't willing to do with the government. Basically, what was the safe word and donde esta the red lines? Nick, there were two red lines that Anthropic insisted be in the T's and C's in their deal with the U.S. Department of Defense. Ah, the old terms and conditions. What were those two red lines, Jack? Anthropic's AI could not be used for mass domestic surveillance of Americans, and it could not be used for fully autonomous weapons. Now, on the other hand, OpenAI says that federal law already forbids the military from domestic mass surveillance, so they think they're all good there already.

19:54But Anthropic and legal experts disagree, and Anthropic refused to capitulate. And the reason? Well, why don't you picture every James Bond movie you've ever seen? You know the really nerdy scientist Q? Love Q. He's always got spectacles, and he's always explaining to James Bond the key bad guy's rap sheet and his whole backstory. And Q knows all the details about this guy. He even knows, like, where the bad guy's mother-in-law went to college. He gets all the details. That kind of profile building, it's legal. for the government to conduct deep, personal, even invasive-feeling research like that on someone.

20:26But here's the key. Because it had to be done manually by a human, it has historically been limited. But with AI, that kind of profile building could be scalable to all of a government's citizens. So Anthropik's interpreting that situation and saying, you know what, I'm gonna sit this one out. They refuse to have their AI be used for a mass domestic surveillance situation. Because similar to what China has already done, And theoretically, the government could very quickly know everything about us, a surveillance state that could lead to abuse. But a very well-paid lawyer at OpenAI gave Sam Altman cover and said, this kind of AI surveillance won't happen based on existing law.

21:05Go ahead, sign the deal with the DOD. You're good to go. So Jack, what's the takeaway for all our buddies looking at how the AI industry is going to shake out? Are ethics a competitive advantage? Can morals become a moat? Can principles lead to profit? Preach, Jack! Yeti's last year, we told you about Anthropics Claude Cafe, an AI coffee shop in the West Village with a line out the door. It was a marketing move. It was. They wanted you to associate Anthropics brand with artistry. They wanted to say their AI doesn't replace human creativity, it supports it. But besties, with this Pentagon beef, Anthropics trying to add kind of another nuance to its brand.

21:45It's trying to add morality. The CEO of Anthropics said on 60 Minutes on Sunday that he's doing the patriotic thing by putting his foot down. He thinks morality is part of being American. That is literally what he said. But while Anthropic is willing to be punished for its principles, open AI is more anything goes. Anthropic is acting like Apple in this situation. Exactly, Jack. The way Apple treats privacy. Building their brand on one cardinal value. Like when Apple refused to give the FBI access to someone's iMessages and they said it was because of privacy. Well, what Anthropic's doing now is because of safety and morals.

22:20Well, on the other hand, though, OpenAI, they're kind of looking more like meta, right, Jack? It's more of a Zucky move they're doing. Willing to bend their principles if it leads to profits. Classic Zuck. So besties, add it all up, and this leads to the big question we're asking you, and you should drop in the comments. Are ethics a competitive advantage? Can morals become a moat? And can principles transform to profits? Jack, fresh off the flight, can you whip up the takeaways for us for T-Boy? Tuesday. Our first story was the war in Iran. It caused stocks to fall initially on Monday, although the S &P 500 actually ended slightly up at the end of the day.

22:56So what comes next for the war folio? Well, finance and fundamentals won't tell us, but generals and geopolitics will. For our second story, Dutch Bros is actually worth four times more per location than Starbucks is. Because the Dutch Bros are a cosplay company. They dress up like a coffee chain, but they're actually an energy drink chain. And our third and final story is Anthropic. They got blacklisted by the Department of War and OpenAI immediately swooped in to replace them. Oh, they saw the beef and they brought a fork. One of them is going the principled route, the apple route, while the other one's going the profitable route, the zuck route.

23:32But yetis, this pod's not over yet. Here's what else you need to know today. First, pause the pod. Sweetgreen, no longer a salad business. They just ordered a stack of tortillas and they're selling salad wraps. Yeah. Sweetgreen is launching wraps now, which is basically just a salad with a blanket around it. And it becomes a on the go company with the addition of this tortilla. Never felt more comforted. Bloomberg actually just did a deep dive in how Sweetgreen's first french fry was kind of a soggy failure, unfortunately. But Hall of Fame Yeti Amanda Whittem asks this strategic question. Will sweet green wraps bring in new customers?

24:09Or will they cannibalize salad sales from old ones? The answer is in the arugula. And second, Apple just announced a new iPhone out of nowhere, the 17e. It's like iPhone 17, but 200 bucks cheaper. Now, Apple's not stopping there. They're releasing at least five new, very marginal product updates later this week. And finally, Gen Z apparently misses the office. Get this, out of all the generations, the one most opposed to fully remote work is Gen Z Jenny. It's from a Gallup poll. Just 23 % of 20-somethings want to work fully remote. Now, time for the best fact yet, this one, an answer to yesterday's T-Boy Insider Trivia.

24:48Jack, you ready for this? Oh, yeah. Okay, so yesterday we did a whole story on Netflix, and our question was, Netflix started as a DVD company. They mailed their final DVD just three years ago, but what was their most popular DVD of all time? And my guess was Finding Nemo, because I'm pretty sure Finding Nemo is the best-selling DVD of all time. Okay, the most popular Netflix DVD of all time is The Blind Side, the 2009 football movie with Sandra Bullock. Wait, 2009? Streaming was already around. I know, I know. And yet, Sandra Bullock may be the biggest profit puppy in Netflix's history. Yetis, you are looking fantastic out there.

25:26Jack, you were glowing the whole show. You know what, by the way, we got to share tomorrow. We may have the best guest yet for our DC show. This is incredible. She's amazing. Our Washington, D.C. show is a week from tomorrow, March 11th, at the Arlington Drafthouse. Great venue. We'll announce the guest interview tomorrow. It's so good. We have tickets still available. Buy yours now because we're going to sell out after we announce the guest. You got to grab them now. In the meantime, HYH, TBOI, and Jack and I, we'll see you manana.

25:59And before we go, a happy birthday to the best one yet, the A-girl, Alex Cravici-Kramer. Jack, you want to take it from here? It's her golden birthday. It is. An absolutely gorgeous and loving mother of three and a phenomenal wife of my own. And Brandon Torres, father to Camille and puppy Walter, is the Ironman trainer with the best birthday in Woodbridge, Virginia. Happy birthday to Michael Chang, the first birthday in Seattle as a father. And Abedav Pital is biking for his birthday down in Sunnyvale, California. Happy birthday to Charity, who's turning 33 on 3-3. This Brooklynite move to Paris to study luxury brands.

26:39And to Nikhil and the entire Intention Design team, thank you for sending us the best standing desks yet. Jack and I used them at our live show in Austin. We love them. Great work, guys. Oh, and a big shout out to Edward Locke of Los Angeles, who created PawsThePod.com, which tracks our episodes and our takeaways. It's wonderful work. We are going to share more on this, but in the meantime - I want to know if it was vibe coded or not. In the meantime, Edward, we wanted to give you the shout out, but we can't wait to talk with you. That was incredible what you did. Also, speaking of our live show, Marnie Kane and Grace Kim.

27:11Big shout out because we shared the product of her work at our live show, which is our brand pyramid. Yeah, if you're curious about our brand strategy, then S Cargo Studio is the one who did it. And it's the best brand strategy yet. Guides everything we do.

27:28This is Jack. I own stock of Netflix. Nick and I both own stock of Apple and Chipotle, and we both own ETFs of the S &P 500.

27:38Thy ticket, Lady Jennifer of Coolidge. Well, many thanks, good sir. heareth my Discover card. They accept Discover at Renaissance Fairs? Yeah, they do here. Discover is accepted at the places I love to shop. Getteth with the times. With the times? You're playing the lute. Yeah, and it sounds pretty good, right? Discover is accepted at 99 % of places that take credit cards nationwide. Based on the February 2025 Nielsen Report.