Brian Belski Returns!

20:28And this is way overdone. Stock went up a little bit. It was in a straight down since then. But if you read the comments, Bell's game was wrong. I mean, I don't own the stock. I mean, so anyway.

20:37Michael Batnick:For somebody who never reads the comments, sounds like you spend a lot of time reading the comments. He glances at the comments. Well, someone told me again. You got to read the Micron thing. It was your son. Brian, let me ask you this. So you said that you expect earnings to, the growth to not be as strong. Obviously, you're not expecting negative earnings. No, no, no, no, no. If it goes, Michael, if it goes from 25 to 20, people are going to go, whoa. Right, right. Well, let me, okay. So let me put it to you this way. The earnings growth is in large part being driven by the hyperscalers willing to go to zero on their free cash flow, right?

21:09Michael Batnick:Like that is powering a large part of the earnings because their spend is Micron and AMDs and everybody else's earnings. They have been steadfastly committed to higher and higher and higher spend. So do you think that's going to reverse itself? Or what do you think it's going to— It has to slow down. It has to slow down. It has to. It has to. They say it's not. Yeah, they're telling you now. Okay. Well, of course they are. Because they want to go to the marketplace, right? If they're going to go to cash flow to zero, they're going to have to go and get money. And they have. Yeah, Google and Nvidia.

21:40Yeah, that's right. Why do you think Oracle's been—

21:42Downtown Josh Brown:Well, why raise money, though, if you were going to slow down? So why would Google be selling stock after 10 years of buybacks if they're not going to accelerate spending? What would be the reason? I don't know. Okay. I actually don't know. I mean, Google's one of my favorites, too. No matter what, these companies are going to have to slow down. They have to slow down.

22:01Michael Batnick:What the hell is happening with Oracle? I know we have a lot to discuss in the doc, but it's like going straight down. I know. That's another one of my problem child. This doesn't look like the other ones. Yeah. I mean, it's going straight down. I just, yeah. I'm still sticking with Oracle. I'm sticking with Microsoft. I'm sticking with Palin. Do you think Oracle is trading? Because I think in the late winter, early spring, when everything else was going down, it made a lot of sense. It was linear. It was, wait, what did Sam Altman just say on that podcast? Everybody's antennas went up and he was acting very defensive.

22:32Michael Batnick:And Oracle just said, like investors said, there's no way that five-year, $300 billion contract is money good. No way. Oh, the open AI business. Yes, and that announcement was responsible for Oracle's 30 % gain in September 2025 or whatever it was. Yeah, yep. So do you think it's still trading on AI fears? I do. Okay. I do. I do. So you think about, too, them going out in the public marketplace and taking all that money. But do you think about how Oracle was a value stock in tech for a long time? And they were early adopters into investing in the AI. And so then all of a sudden, all the relationship with OpenAI and the stock took off.

23:11So I think that's unjustly being punished. So I'm sticking with Oracle and Microsoft. I am.

23:17Downtown Josh Brown:What do you think about whether or not the meta news this week, where they're now going to be like an outsourced cloud for other players, the market rallied the stock and then gave almost all of it back today? I'm not a believer. I'm not a believer. Does that even make sense if you're a meta shareholder? Is that what you would want to see them investing in? How is there excess compute? I don't understand.

23:38Michael Batnick:I thought we heard about just shortage.

23:39Downtown Josh Brown:Right.

23:40Michael Batnick:They're going to start renting out their excess.

23:42Downtown Josh Brown:Look how fast that game went away. Yeah, two seconds. Two seconds. Like 24 hours later, people are like, eh, what are they doing? Wait a minute. These are the same. I think the market has said, wait a minute, aren't these the same guys that were doing like sunglasses and stuff a little bit? And now prediction markets? They seem very, very not focused. They call it flailing. Yeah. Meta, now I don't know shit, and I could be totally wrong, and they could surprise everyone. Meta, just the way I think about it, they're the best user of AI on earth to generate revenue. Because of the ad spend. The product is you cannot put your phone down anymore.

24:23Downtown Josh Brown:If you're on Instagram, you literally cannot put your phone down. It is just so good at holding people's attention and getting people to send it to their friends and getting people to engage with it. They have perfected reels. It is completely addictive. Nobody saw them on TikTok anymore.

24:43Michael Batnick:I have a physical device. It's called a brick where I literally have to stop myself. I have to lock myself out of my phone because I am addicted to Instagram. I tap on and I tap off and I try and leave it tapped off. Right. So that's AI.

24:56Downtown Josh Brown:AI enabled them to not only make the world's most addictive product, but that's not nicotine, but also the monetization of it. It's perfect. So they have this thing. It's the best in the world. And it spins off a ton of cash. But I don't think people would look at the way that they reinvest that cash and say that they aren't any good at that. They seem to be really bad at it, actually. I have a sordid past with Meta. Say more. How sordid? Well, in the fourth quarter of 2018, I sold the stock. I blew the stock out completely. That's when they changed the name of the company. To Meta. to meta. Was that long ago?

25:37We're going into the metaverse and we're going to push aside WhatsApp and Instagram and Facebook and we're still going to own it. But we're going to try to go in this other direction. I'm like, they don't know what they're going to do. And I took all my meta position and put it into Google. Haven't owed it since. Now, Belsky doesn't know what he's talking about.

25:57Downtown Josh Brown:So you know what the ROI was on that? They spent$80 billion and lost$80 billion. It's the most amazing. See, there you go. So then, so I'm like, okay, And then during the vid, they came out and said, wait a minute, we're going to come back. We need to focus on our core competencies. Good idea. Which are WhatsApp, Instagram, and Facebook. Now they're doing this. And now they're going to build a NeoCloud. Yeah. So I think the pick to click is Google. I still think Google. And if you look historically, except for the, you know, since really historically, Google and Meta from a price performance basis, they're very correlated, right?

26:35But I think they're going to, something that we talked about when we were here last, we're going to have more stock picking, more differentiation. And look at communication services in particular. Terrible performing sector year to date. You know, AT &T.

26:46Michael Batnick:And Verizon, they're crashing. Verizon, Netflix. Wait, one thing on Meta before we get off this topic. It seems to me, and I could be totally making this up, that in between every quarter, we talk about what a bad job Meta is doing. And they're doing all this bullshit and they're not focused. and then every 90 days we say, holy shit, I mean, how much money? And the stock rallies. Because they have the best advertising business

27:12Downtown Josh Brown:in the world that's not called Google.

27:13Michael Batnick:I really feel like every 90 days we're like, wow, this is the best business in the world. And then in between, we spent time.

27:18Downtown Josh Brown:How is he going to light that cash flow on fire this month? Yeah, maybe, I mean, full disclosure, I was looking at this stock hard because we've talked about it on the show. You're talking about Nike and about how I like to buy companies in my value portfolio.

27:33Michael Batnick:Sorry, Brian, that's meta and Google over the last year. Yeah. Holy shit, I didn't realize it was that bad. Josh, look at this. Yeah, so this was really – Meta's down 18, Google's up 100. Yeah, since liberate – Right. My God. Anyway, so in my value portfolio, I love to buy companies that operationally have tripped. Nike for a while. Bought Starbucks a couple years ago. Netflix is in there now. Lulu's in there now. I'm like, man, try to buy meta. There's time to buy meta. 16 times earnings. I know. It probably is. It probably is. but let's see how... How cheap is the stock? It's like 16, 17, I think.

28:09Michael Batnick:That's too cheap. Who cares? Nobody likes Facebook. See this right here? No Facebook, no Insta ever. I'm not on.

28:18Downtown Josh Brown:Well, if you were, you would be as addicted as everyone else. They're really good at what they do. The problem is these initiatives in AI make no sense to anyone. They're going to build open model LLM. Nobody wants it. Okay, fine. Now we're going to build productivity tools for the workplace. Is anyone asking for meta at work? Like on the planet? No way. Nobody trusts them. No, what's interesting about this though. So yesterday meta popped 10%. Oh, so now the new thing is we're going to build a data center and rent out compute because we saw Elon Musk do it with XAI and they got appreciated. Like maybe we'll be appreciated as a company that could deliver this.

28:58Downtown Josh Brown:it took Alphabet and Amazon like 15 years to build these businesses yeah Meta's gonna spin it up

29:06Michael Batnick:to get the stock price to go up but so listen to this so Meta was up 10 % yesterday on the news CoreWeave got killed naturally Meta is giving back a lot of the gain today and CoreWeave is still going down today

29:17Downtown Josh Brown:and Oracle is going down which is I mean so the market is saying we don't really like any of this yeah anyway alright what's this chart on SMID can we move to like Anyway, what's this bullshit? No, no, no, no. What are you spitting here on SMID? What does SMID stand for? Let's get into the Belsky charts. Let's go. All right. This is the first one. SMID, for people who are unfamiliar, is small and mid-cap combined. That's how you think about that market. I do. Okay. So the S &P 1500 is the S &P 500, the S &P 400 mid-cap, and the S &P 600 small-cap. So we run money called a SMID portfolio relative to the S &P 1000.

29:58And so if you take a look at the S &P 1000 with respect to performance in June, they flip-flopped. They've completely gone off. But what's interesting, if you take a look at the S &P equal weighted versus the MAG-7, same kind of thing. So our call all along has been that you always want to skate to where the puck is going. everybody hated it.

30:23Downtown Josh Brown:Wow, you're a genius. Listen. It's a good idea. I like to skate to where the puck was 10 minutes ago and wait for it to come back. Or you can stick handle. Yeah, yeah, yeah. You can stick handle and then get your ass kicked because you have your head down, right? Right. Anyway. This is why they think you're Canadian, all these hockey analogies. Minnesota, by the way. Hey, Gordon Bombay. Gordon Bombay. We're like a Hanson brother. Who, by the way, are from Minnesota. Anyway. Believable. Believable, right? Yeah, yeah. So we've said all along that from a fundamental perspective, if you take a look at earnings growth, price to free cash flow, and actually next 12 months earnings, you look at the small cap market, SML versus the S &P 500, amazing.

31:08Amazing.

31:08Downtown Josh Brown:Is it? Yes. What's the expectation for small cap? 28%, something like that. Earnings growth for when? Next 12 months? Yeah. And what is it for large cap? 23, 24, something like that. Is that small or SMID?

31:20Michael Batnick:Small, SML.

31:21Downtown Josh Brown:Okay.

31:22Michael Batnick:What is driving? I don't mean like the narrative, like, oh, rates, whatever. Like, literally at the sector level. Yeah, where are the earnings from? Yeah, where are the earnings from? Financials. There's a lot of big – there's a lot – there's a big financial presence in there. There's consumer discretionary in there, tech. So why regional banks? Because you spoke about this last time. They're on fire. Like, what's the story? Well, our theme for financials in regional banks has been, in the regional bank side of things, consolidation. I really think consolidation is coming. And we've had some decent consolidation from that.

31:49But the theme is the big and the small. The really big guys and the really small guys are going to benefit. Small guys are going to benefit because of the relationship side of the business. And oh, by the way, the smaller banks in regions of the country that are growing, like let's say Montana or Wyoming or Idaho or the southeast.

32:05Downtown Josh Brown:Growing meaning people are moving there. People are moving there and companies are moving there as well because of tax advantage or whatever. Those companies are winning business away from the big banks. So whether or not it's Glacier Bancorp, which we own, is winning business from Chase, let's call it, in Bozema, Montana. Or we own this company called Synovus that got bought out by Pinnacle. They're in the southeast of the U.S., right? So we're moving to the southeast. We're moving to Alabama. We're moving to Georgia because of cheap taxes and all that kind of stuff and cheaper payrolls. So those banks are winning business from the really big, big guys.

32:42From a relationship standpoint, they're having a beer. They're playing cribbage on a Friday night, all that kind of stuff. where the regional banks don't have the capacity to be able to take on the big banks and they don't have the relationship power to take on the small banks. They're in the middle.

32:55Downtown Josh Brown:But they're becoming super regionals. Well, they're going to have more. I think they're going to become, I think they're going to have some super combos. They're going to see some consolidation. Like PNC is aggressive now. Citizens is aggressive. What's a super regional?

33:09Michael Batnick:Like a big small bank? Like Truist.

33:11Downtown Josh Brown:Like when two regionals merge. Okay. And all of a sudden, they start to get some of those benefits of scale, but they're not quite Bank of America. So they don't have capital markets business, let's say, but they become powerhouses in middle market lending and commercial banking. So I'm in Citizens Financial. They're the number one HELOC bank, I think in the country or something like that's their specialty. And they are a conglomeration of a bunch of smaller banks. And I would argue it's not really a regional anymore. It's like a super regional. and you don't think that's a sweet spot though because they're stuck in the middle you like the smaller and the bigger i like the smaller and the bigger just pick it from a fundamental perspective um the scale of the scale of the large ones makes sense to me the small ones make sense just from the fundamental side of things and if you look at balance sheets too and cash flow for that you have to you have to kind of roll up your sleeves and do um the work and look at some of these banks balance sheets to make sure to see what their loan quality is i think and i don't build strategies around consolidation but i think you're going to have some super consolidations.

34:13Like, just throw it out there. The White House is allowing it. All of it. Truist buys U.S. Bank. Or, I mean, they can buy something like that. I don't know anything, but you're going to have more Midwest banks combined. I really think you are.

34:26Downtown Josh Brown:Who is Truist? Is M &T bought Comerica? I forget. No, it was SunTrust and Bank of North Carolina. Okay. Not important. But, like, that's the kind of thing that you think we'll see. Yeah. Okay. Away from banks, but within financials. What else looks good to you right now? Like some insurance companies like Unum is an interesting company. I don't – I want to like Blackstone again. I want to go back into that. My contrarian hat wants me to go back into there, but I just can't do it. The headlines are not going to be good for a while.

35:00Michael Batnick:No, I can't do it. But Blue Owl rallied a little bit today on less bad than expected. Redemptions. Like Redemptions were 19 instead of 25 last quarter, whatever it was. Well, okay, let's think about this. Why not just buy Oracle?

35:16Downtown Josh Brown:What do you mean? Well - Instead of buying a troubled financial one -

35:19Michael Batnick:Because financials are trading on software distress too, or perceived. Yeah, that makes sense. Right? Right. What about any take on - So I bought CME today. These stocks have - Oh, oh. So CME, SIBO, ICE.

35:30Downtown Josh Brown:They're all down huge.

35:32Michael Batnick:And a little bit different, a little bit away, but S &P and Moody's also got crushed. But what do you think about the exchanges? Schwab. Schwab looks interesting. I like the exchanges. I think they're cheap. I think they sold off, I'm not even kidding, on the CalSheep perpetual listing news. And fine, it may be a threat, but are they that big of a threat to send the stock crashing? No.

35:51Downtown Josh Brown:Let's do this earnings chart, chart three. Chart three. The first quarter reporting season was historically strong. I'd also point out, I think this was the best quarter ever for the stock market. Did I read that wrong? No way. What did I read? It was very good. I read something. Maybe it was the best earnings quarter ever? I think it was earnings. Okay. All right. So that's what you're showing.

36:12Michael Batnick:It was the most fun quarter ever between the Knicks and the men's national team. It was a lot of fun. The Knicks really took it right over the top.

36:19Downtown Josh Brown:So when most people look at this chart, they say, all right, when does it mean revert? Like, when do we give all this back? Or how many quarters worth of earnings growth are we pulling forward to get this result? What do you think when you look at a chart like this? I look at the big bottoms and tops, right? I look how bullish you should have been in 2020 when the bottom fell out. And then you had a little bit of a recession in 2022, but man, earnings came back. But look at how the recovery from 2022, it's been pretty steady. And then you could see 80%. You could see that number. What if I'm wrong, right?

37:03What if I'm wrong and you see 30 % grow? then I could be wrong.

37:07Downtown Josh Brown:What if you underestimate it?

37:09Michael Batnick:Then the S &P is 10 ,000 next year.

37:11Downtown Josh Brown:Yes. Yeah, you're looking at a Dow 75 ,000, S &P 10 ,000. I mean, I'm still on board with my 25-year secular bull. I'm still on board. I think we have seven to 10 years left.

37:20Michael Batnick:Let me ask you this. I'm glad you mentioned that. A lot of people think about the stock market, you really use analogies for shorthand. What inning is it? What time is it? What if, or what do you think about this? the AI-powered revolution, the economy that we're coming towards, it can be the top of the second inning. We don't have robots. We're still very early. Basically, nobody's using it. It can be the top of the second inning as far as this whole thing is concerned. But what if the stock market's in the eighth inning? And how do we know? And it wasn't that too dissimilar in like 99 where it was still early for the internet.

37:56I understand what you're saying.

37:57Michael Batnick:But the stock market had already discounted all of it. So the internet was in inning one. The stock market was in inning 11.

38:06Could be. Because I think, so, man, I'm sounding bearish. I think we're going to have a recession. You're sounding nuanced.

38:13Michael Batnick:Whoa, whoa, whoa. What did you just say? I think we're going to have a recession at some point. Oh, okay. It's going to be a CapEx recession. Yeah, me too. At some point. Me too. No, but think about it. I thought you were going to give us more than that. Think about it. So let's say we're in the second or third inning of the EIA revolution, and market's getting a little tippy. We haven't had a normal recession for all intents and purposes since 2001, really?

38:39Downtown Josh Brown:What do you mean? Like a normal two-quarter. Like a run-in-the-mill, plain vanilla recession? Yep. Okay, are we still capable of having that where manufacturers get over their skis on inventory, the inventory stops selling, all of a sudden they stop ordering. No, it's a different economy. And we just sort of have like a slowdown as that gets worked through. Could we have a – I don't know. Was that what 2001 was about? Well, 2001 – Like what you're describing sounds like something that would have happened in the 80s. 2001 had overcapacity of technology, right? Well, we had a pull forward. So everyone had machines that they upgraded at the same time because they literally thought the planes were going to fall out of the sky.

39:18Downtown Josh Brown:That's the Y2K effect. Are we not doing that now? Is there too many data centers? So that's my point. The question might be, what happens when these CapEx trends go into reverse? What does that do to corporate earnings for all the companies that are feasting on this spending today? Nukes it. Yeah, I think. And then it hits multiples at the same time. Could be horrible. And then what is the externality of a stock market in reverse? We know what the wealth effect is when the stock market is hitting highs. What does it look like when it's down 20%, 30 %? Is everyone paying Delta for the Delta One?

39:53Downtown Josh Brown:Is everyone paying Netflix for the ad-free experience? Like is everyone still spending the way they were when the market was going high? So for me, that seems plausible. That seems like it would be the bear case. So when could that happen? As long as the labor market is good, they'll keep spending. But the reason it's not going to happen is because we are seeing the demand for AI rise as quickly as they can build it. I don't, maybe that stops. The number one thing is the cost of a token. The cost of a token is declining rapidly, like 90 % over the last, which is great news. The problem is token usage is like growing 5X more quickly, the adoption.

40:40Downtown Josh Brown:The spend. Until the adoption stops, it's hard to understand why all of a sudden this CapEx will like stop on a dime. I know people think that's how it's going to end. Maybe they'll be right. but now it's tied to revenue. Now it's companies that are like, this is AI revenue. So I just, I don't know. I feel better about it than maybe I did a year ago. Did you just get bullish again?

41:01Michael Batnick:I just saw a twinkle in your eye. I think you, well, demand, demand, demand, demand. Scarcity, scarcity, scarcity, scarcity. Never doubt scarcity. Always trade on scarcity. Always buy scarcity. And if there's that demand there and there's a scarcity for memory and there's that still scarcity on the AI, if we're still truly in the second age. It's compute. then this thing's going a lot higher. And we are at 10 ,000.

41:24Downtown Josh Brown:And the thing is, the token economics are being rationalized right now. Companies are looking at their bills. And yeah, the bills are expensive, but then they're looking at the amount of demand and they're saying like, well, we're now like reorganizing ourselves around this technology. We can't not buy it. We can't not use it because it's doing X, it's doing Y, it's doing Z, it's doing all these things for, So I know like the bears are like any minute now, this whole Jenga tower, someone's going to pull the wrong piece and the whole thing's going to collapse. I don't believe that for one second.

42:00Okay. I don't believe that for one second. I like hearing you say that. I don't. The thing that bothers me as being a sector analyst for a long time and a strategist that what are the indices look like in four years? Are we going to be 50 % technology in the S &P 500?

42:14Downtown Josh Brown:We would look more like the rest of the world if that happened because most countries are dominated by one industry. Well, look at Canada. has got dominated by three. But let's take this back. I actually think within two to three years that Russell, S &P, MSCI are going to break apart the technology sector.

42:35Michael Batnick:Again? Again. Yep. Because they did it already. Into what? Semis could have its own, maybe they should be their own sector at this point. Hardware, software.

42:45Downtown Josh Brown:Ooh, that would be interesting. If software got its own, if software got its own sector, will it still be big enough? It's like 7%. Will there be enough market cap left in the software sector?

42:57Michael Batnick:Brian, look at this. So this is the top 25 stocks. Yeah. All right? So we spent a lot of time talking about the max 700%. It's so much bigger than that now. The top 25 stocks were 35 % of the index when this series starts in 1997. And it was like around there, a little bit higher, a little bit lower for the next 20 years. It went from 35 to 54.

43:19Downtown Josh Brown:25 stocks are half the U.S. stock market. I know. Wild. And if you don't own them. Well, that's the thing about SMID. Let's go, right? Right. The SMID category, if you take a look at all publicly traded companies in the U.S. that are SMID, small and mid-cap, they add up to the weight of Apple. Put up a chart six, Dan. S &P 500 CTR has been top heavy. What's CTR?

43:47Michael Batnick:Okay, got it. contribution to total return. Correct.

43:50Downtown Josh Brown:Which has worried some investors. So the question based on this chart is like, can you outperform in SMID for longer than a quarter? Like just the nature of the market over the last 15 years has been like, all right, you'll get that annual small cap rally, knock yourself out, have fun. And then before you know it, Meta, Apple, Microsoft, they start going up again and erasing all that outperformance. This is a nice shot. What change is that? This is a nice shot. I don't think it's different this time. We've had a heck of a June and second quarter for small mid-cap, but this is also at more elevated 10-year treasuries.

44:28If you get 10-year treasuries to go down, then Smith's really going to rocket. Okay. And it's going to be helped along by the banks.

44:36Downtown Josh Brown:So you can outperform for the rest of this year in this Smith trade? I think you can. It's possible. I think you can. And the other thing, too, is that if you look at the Russell 2000 versus the SML or the MID, right, Russell 2000 outperformed both those. But there's a lot of companies in the Russell 2000, Josh, that are don't make they're not making any money. So you have a lot of fuel in there, a lot of beta. And that's where a lot of the returns came from. You strip those out. That's why I go back to if you take a look at price of free cash flow and just earnings discernibility and consistency within the small SML and the mid, it's much better than the Russell overall.

45:08Michael Batnick:You know, it's so interesting about what's happening right now. I would expect if you know that the Russell 2000 is outperforming the large, then you would expect looking inside of the S &P itself that it would look similar. That smaller stocks in the S &P are outperforming what you just heard. It's the exact opposite. It literally is the top decile. Forget about the hyperscalers. It's Micron and SanDisk. No, it's not top decile. Intel probably. But it's the gigantic stocks in the S &P that are driving the index. and yet the Russell 2000 is kicking the crap out of the equal weight S &P. So it's not a size thing.

45:43Michael Batnick:It's a sector thing. Could be a sector thing. It could be a fundamental thing. Ooh, right? Interesting. You know what just came to mind? I remember back when I was a young strategist, 1998, 99, something like that. And I was on a marketing trip to Boston and I was visiting one of the portfolio managers at Fidelity and he was literally having like a breakdown. I got him. He was a small cap manager at Fidelity.

46:08Downtown Josh Brown:This is an audio medium. I don't know if you know what we're doing here. Oh, really? Okay. Okay, here we go. I'm like Ricky Bobby. What do I do with my hands? Anyway, so I'm in Boston. You're welcome, John. John was about to get up from his chair. And so he was literally like, Belsky, I don't know what to do. I'm a small cap manager. I'm massively underperforming. I'm buying Microsoft. Oh, my God. Like that was the answer? Yeah. So I was talking to some people that run small – they're completely gone. Remember, there's no value managers anymore. There's no small cap managers anymore. There's no dividend growth managers anymore.

46:40Downtown Josh Brown:They got knocked out of their chair. They're all gone. Okay. So I like that setup. Let me do chart eight. This is the broadening. The chart on the right, figure five. The number of year-over-year gainers has risen, which runs contra to trends before prior drawdowns. Explain what you mean by that and why should we take note of that? Well, more companies are actually seeing a year-over-year price gain over the average. And look at that number beginning to go up. And especially coming out of the bear market, it's really interesting. It's still very, very early. And so, again— You're saying this is good?

47:22Downtown Josh Brown:This is good. Okay. This is good. Okay. You don't have a market top as it's broadening. That's another way to phrase that. You don't have a market top as a broadening. So long as we see -

47:32Michael Batnick:Eh, we did in 2021.

47:34Downtown Josh Brown:Silence. So as long as - We literally did. I know. Asterisk. As long as we see that broadening, though, it's - Go ahead. Yeah, but look at - Dude, look at the spike, though. Yeah, I know. I know. It's crazy. It's not that. Very consistent. It was the same thing with that prior earnings chart. Just chug-a-chug-a-chug-a-chug-a-chug. When you see something linear like that -

47:57Michael Batnick:2021 was, we've never seen anything like that. That was just the government giving people money to buy stocks. Every single stock was up year over year. Right. That's the same thing like people saying about inflation. They're comparing inflation now to 2021. Completely different. Right. 2020, completely different. No, this is healthy. So when people say it's only this working, it's just not true. You have almost 350 stocks that are up year over year.

48:17Downtown Josh Brown:Can I have the next one, Dan? When segmented by market cap, about half the index has delivered double digit gains. This is super bullish to me too. Yep. it means that people are making money everywhere. Not in every stock, but all over the place. Per Michael's point, though, look at the 10th one.

48:34Michael Batnick:I know, this is so bizarre. I'm having trouble squaring the circle. How is the bottom decile the worst performer and yet the small cap stocks are winning? It has to be a sector thing. Because otherwise you would expect this to look opposite. You would expect the smaller deciles to be outperforming and they're not, not even close.

48:51Downtown Josh Brown:Well, go to 10, go to try 10. Many market cap segments have a significant number of outperforming stocks. That's the answer. It's like the AI winners in each sector. I don't know what's like, take industrials. You got tons of stocks in there that are not going up right now. But so many that are. And the ones that are all have one major thing in common. They're selling something or making something for AI.

49:17Michael Batnick:But this is saying the same thing. Because there's no information on this chart. It basically says that half the stocks in every sector, in every decile, for the most part, are outperforming, which tells you nothing. No, but the point is, well, which are those stocks? Dude, but it's half. So go to decile five. It's literally half. Half are outperforming, half are underperforming. My point is, look at bar 10. Only 18 % of the smallest 50 stocks are outperforming. What the hell is in that group? I'm sorry. I apologize. I don't know those 50 stocks. It's got to be software. No, it's got to be. No, seriously.

49:50Michael Batnick:It's got to be into it. I think it could be. I'll get to the bottom of this. Maybe it could be a home builder. Maybe it could be a consumer discretionary stock. Maybe it could be a consumer staple stock that have not done very well.

50:00Downtown Josh Brown:Yeah. That's what I'm kind of thinking. I don't know. But there, and there's a lot of one-offs. There's a lot of weird companies that are public. A lot of weird companies. There was a company up until recently called Dover. You know what they did? Yeah, Dover. I owned it when I was at Merrill Lynch a long time ago. They made, they made harnesses for horseback riding. Yeah. It's a public company making literally horse equipment. Like there are a lot of one-off cases. We shouldn't get bogged down in the 18 % that are outperforming in that last SIL. We should just think people are making money in almost every sector right now.

50:34Michael Batnick:Except for these pieces of shit. Here we go. The tray desk, Molson cores. These are specific problems. Yeah. Yeah, Domino's. What else is name-branded here that's getting beat up? Oh, Paramount. Shake Shack. GoDaddy. There's a lot of, yeah, a lot of, I mean, whatever. There's no theme that I could see just eyeballing it. So wait a minute, it's all stock-specific, isn't it? Yeah, yeah. That's what this is all about anyway. That's what we're trying to say. The stock market is a market of stocks. That's the way that it works. That's what we're trying to say. And then also, almost maybe by definition, the bottom decile in the S &P, it's always got to be the lousiest performances.

51:12Michael Batnick:Otherwise, they wouldn't be in the bottom decile. Well, then they get kicked out and they go to mid-cap.

51:15Downtown Josh Brown:Pull up the small cap chart. Daniel, can I please have chart 14? Small caps had an explosive first half of 2026. I mean, not just because we changed the color to red for that last bar, but to really make you notice it, but you would notice it. You could see this in outer space.

51:31Michael Batnick:Wow. This is a really big deal for this part of the market. It's been a very long time since they've been able to party this hard.

51:39Downtown Josh Brown:I wonder, though, is it even possible? I mean, you seem to think it could continue. What's the longest small cap rally versus large caps we've seen in the last 10 years? How long? 10 years? Yeah. Like six months at the most? Three to six months at the most. In the last 10 years? No, it's really been the 90s.

52:00Michael Batnick:So it's a sector thing. It's 20 % healthcare, 19 % financials, 15 % industrials, and then 15 % technology. Yep. There's not a lot of consumer stocks in small midland. There's not. Very small communication services sector. Healthcare is where the biotechs, because biotechs have some pretty good growth numbers, and it's the financials.

52:25Downtown Josh Brown:I was going to say there are a tiny amount of materials in there. Tiny amount of materials. Okay. Can we talk about the bull cycle itself? You say year four of the current bull cycle likely to be the most volatile. Chart 15. um what do you tell people about not not it's year four how many more years will be left but we know you're we know you're thinking about this as a much bigger longer secular story so year four if we get more volatility it wouldn't surprise you in other words no not at all and i think what is it about that fourth year well four josh has been into golf these days it was really supposed to be three but i think given everything that we saw last year with liberation day and the goofiness of the market and that was kind of manufactured quite frankly um and um this year is more kind of we had the the war in the middle east and everything like that but i think the market's been pretty resilient through the war i mean let's be honest um i think if you go back historical year three is usually the most volatile i think we just kind of push it ahead one year in the dominance of earnings, right?

53:36So again, going back to earnings-driven markets are more volatile than momentum, multiple-driven markets. And that's why. Because I do think the second derivative is going to freak people out. It doesn't matter if you go from 25 % earnings to 23 % earnings. They're still going to, whoa, guidance.

53:52Downtown Josh Brown:It's still coming off the high. Yep. People don't like that. People don't like that. Okay. And understandably, because as the estimates come off the high, you start to think about worst-case scenarios. What if they keep going? What if they keep dropping and they don't have to? That's sufficient to scare people.

54:09Michael Batnick:All right.

54:09Downtown Josh Brown:I totally get that.

54:10Michael Batnick:But the summer is pretty typically a quiet period for the stock market. It is. The other thing, too, is that traditionally technology companies, seasonality from the earnings perspective, that third quarter is usually a little bit slower, too. So, who knows?

54:28Downtown Josh Brown:Okay. Here's another question. Yep. what if there is no sasspocalypse what if we just what if we just call it off let me set this up there's an analyst at guggenheim you know this guy did you read this no it's an analyst at guggenheim who wrote i think he saved the sector this week guggenheim analyst this is barons john defucci says name yeah totally says there uh where was i okay guggenheim analyst john defucci says now is the time for Wall Street to take advantage of the deep software sell-off despite those AI fears, historically low valuation. You could write the thing yourself. Quote, we believe traditional software companies will at least persist if not continue to grow at reasonable rates in many instances, but they're trading as if they will not, making one of the best opportunities for patient investors in our careers.

55:24Downtown Josh Brown:We view AI as a technology paradigm shift. The leaders of the new paradigm are typically not the leaders of the last one. At the same time, there's significant staying power in enterprise software. He upgrades. What are the upgrades? ServiceNow, maybe work. I want to say workforce. I know there's a whole bunch of upgrades that came with that. The IGV is up 11 % off its lows from last week, I think, outpacing the bounce in the Mag7 and obviously going in the opposite direction as the semi-NAI trade, which has been negative. Could this be the start of something more meaningful? Are we going to bring these stocks back to life from the dead?

56:05Downtown Josh Brown:What do you think? I hope so. And Oracle's not going in our direction. Besides Oracle, which of these do you like? I don't know what the other ones. I don't own ServiceNow. I don't own a workday. I worry that the feasibility of Salesforce and Adobe going forward, do you need that stuff? And the answer is I don't think so.

56:22Michael Batnick:I think Salesforce, Workday, and ServiceNow, in my mind, anyway, they're three big, big, big SaaS teams that trade together. Adobe's a little bit different, but same idea. But Salesforce, I don't know, man.

56:33Downtown Josh Brown:Well, here are those discounts. ServiceNow, 22.9 times earnings. Expected over the next 12 months.

56:39Michael Batnick:You can get that. You can get Microsoft.

56:41Downtown Josh Brown:We just had the exact same reaction. How is that discount? The five-year average had been. It's a different five years. The five-year average had been 55 times. Salesforce, 11 times forward. The five-year average had been 30 times. So how about this? What if this has nothing to do with the SaaSpocalypse due to AI? It was just a reminder to people that they were paying too high multiples for these businesses. And that's the thing that's getting normalized. Maybe there's too many of these companies too. Maybe there's too many of these companies. And maybe we're going to see some consolidation there.

57:15Downtown Josh Brown:Yes. Oh, right. If growth for a decent number of software companies starts to stabilize and then perhaps accelerate into the end of 26 and 27. Salesforce growth will not accelerate. Then the AI death knell will not be as loud, even if it doesn't go away. We expect names currently trading as if they'll decline into perpetuity to start to trade as if they'll at least be stagnant, if not grow modestly. It's not going to end well from a lot of these stocks. What about, do you think, are you hearing anything about money? maybe some of the accelerated downtrends in Microsoft, because it's easy to trade on Microsoft because of liquidity, because they're chasing Micron, chasing Intel.

58:00Michael Batnick:Don't you think that could be some of that? Totally. Josh, there's a big money comes out if things go into other things guy.

58:04Downtown Josh Brown:Oh, anytime I see something going up, my first instinct is...

58:07Michael Batnick:Where'd the money come from?

58:08Downtown Josh Brown:What did they sell? That's just the way my mind works. Well, you have to, right? And vice versa. When I see something selling off, where's that money going? I just, I know it doesn't work that way, but I think that way. No, I understand conceptually the money could literally do anything. Right. It could go to pay the plumbing bill. I'm just saying, I think that way about when I see everybody piling out of software, of course the semis went up. What were they going to do? They're going to go buy regional banks?

58:37Michael Batnick:He's right. This, in 26, it's binary. And the best hedge for, if you're worried about the AI trade, buy software as much as you want. Oh, if you're worried, right. Because - Anytime the AI trade has a hiccup. I'm talking about the narrative, the price, whatever, software rallies every time. Now, software is rallying less and less and falling more each time the trade reverses.

58:57Downtown Josh Brown:Yep. But - What do you do with Netflix now? I'm in this stock. Hold on, let me - My average cost is 93. Let me set this up.

59:05Michael Batnick:This actually happened this week. I swear to God, I'm not making any of this up. All right. I said to Josh and Ben, Netflix, Netflix, Netflix. So Josh and I both own Netflix.

59:21Downtown Josh Brown:Are you allowed to reveal my private slacks?

59:23Michael Batnick:No, it's mine. It's mine. It's mine. So I bought more when it was up 5%. I sold it the next day. So a day later, it fell 3%. I said, I'm taking my other half off.

59:34Downtown Josh Brown:Good trade.

59:34Michael Batnick:And I'm going to buy it back if it rallies 3 % tomorrow. The next day, playing it like Buffett. And I swear to God, I did. I added more. I said, never mind them selling. And I added back, and now I'm back. Full position. Let's go. It's the bottom. Do you want to hire Michael as a trader? Yes. Listen, when I'm wrong, I admit it. And I can be wrong every single day. I like it. It's about being humble. I don't care. I own it.

59:55Downtown Josh Brown:What do we do with this thing? I hold it.

59:57Michael Batnick:I'm holding it too. I hold it. Cowards. You buy after it goes up, and you sell after it goes down. Do I have to teach you guys everything? We own it in three portfolios, four portfolios. We've owned it all the way up and all the way down. We added it to value two months ago because I think—

1:00:12Downtown Josh Brown:This stock gets killed every four years. Yep. This is just one of those times. It always comes back better. Could that be different this time? Cash, content, and consolidation. Cash, content, and consolidation. This is what that whole sector is about. And I think now given what Comcast is doing and they're going to spin out, I think there's going to be more consolidation in the next couple of years. And Netflix is going to be the winner.

1:00:35Michael Batnick:Oh, wait. It already won. This is different.

1:00:37Downtown Josh Brown:The threat this time is way different. I don't think that they won because they think this HBO combined with Paramount plus sports rights is way more formidable than anything Netflix's face has. Netflix won.

1:00:49Michael Batnick:If you look at the viewing time, nothing is close. YouTube aside. So in 2022, when the stock got killed, subscriber growth went negative. Yep. And they had a very easy lever to pull, which was, okay, let's just make people actually pay for their subscription.

1:01:06Downtown Josh Brown:Add support plus password share. Okay.

1:01:08Michael Batnick:They did that and it worked. But now it's like the dragon. Like YouTube is the final dragon. And I don't know how they beat YouTube. So I own the stock. But I think the challenge this time is way harder than any previous overhang the stock has ever gone through. Because they already did win. Like they are. They did win content. So they like HBO and Apple. Give me a break. I don't think they beat YouTube. Nobody watches Amazon. They're not going to beat YouTube.

1:01:32Downtown Josh Brown:But YouTube is the one. When they made the bid for Warner, all of a sudden the narrative around Netflix having won the streaming war changed to, wait, why did they think they needed to do that? Because they're not an acquisitive company. There's a million different film libraries that have been floating around out there. Netflix never bought anybody. So now all of a sudden they're going to do a massive, one of the biggest media deals ever. and I think people said, why do they even think they need to do this? The stock falls. Then they lose the bidding war or they pull out of the bidding war. It just gets too intense.

1:02:12Downtown Josh Brown:Warner's going to win anyway because Ellis and his best friends are Trump. Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. So they pull out. The stock bounces. Yep. And everyone says, myself included, because I'm another asshole. Finally, they pulled out of that dumb deal that they should never have been involved in in the first place, stock bottomed. Had a furious rally. And then that whole rally falls apart because I talked about second derivatives. I think there was a later reckoning on the part, because nothing fundamentally has changed with Netflix since then. This is all sentiment. There was a later reckoning where people said, oh shit, they lost Warner.

1:02:52Downtown Josh Brown:Now they're facing Paramount Warner plus YouTube, plus Disney, and what are they? And what are they going to do for growth? What are they going to do? I think the street will react differently when they make a run at NBC Universal, which they will. I think the street likes the idea of Netflix getting into parks. It's a great business for Comcast, great business. And that film library is top three film libraries on earth. And there's a lot of things that Netflix can do to extend those brands within it. So I actually think the stock could rally if they make a bid and it looks like they're going to win.

1:03:31Downtown Josh Brown:But they're not going to grow subscribers.

1:03:32Michael Batnick:So that phase of their life is over. And Netflix - Yes, but add the Peacock subscribers. No, I'm saying, okay. Add the Peacock subscribers. But this is a message. This is what happens. The investor base is transitioning from growth to value to people like me who buy it and sell it and buy it and sell it and try to find where the bottom is. You're the new investor base. But that's what's happening. The story is changing and it's a new investor base. And yeah, the stock is like cheap, but because it's not going to grow the way you used to. Do you own it in your value portfolio? Yeah.

1:03:57Downtown Josh Brown:Okay. Yeah, I added it. Is that where you first bought it or transitioned into value? So Michael's right. Yeah. Like that's the process. No, we own it in our tactical, our focus portfolio. And then we also, we added it, a brand new position in our value. One of the other issues with it is too big to get bought by anyone else. So it has to be an acquirer.

1:04:17Michael Batnick:Anyway, Brian, I know you don't care about this. JC would. Look at that false breakdown, hopefully. Yeah. Hopefully. See how false it was. I just think, I think communication services are going to be the surprise sector the second half of the year. I really do. But which ones? Netflix, AT &T. Nobody likes Disney. Nobody, everybody hates Disney. I love Spotify. It's a great product too.

1:04:39Downtown Josh Brown:But it's the same thing. It's YouTube. Spotify and Netflix have a very similar chart. They tend to trend in the same direction. They're both great businesses with huge subscriber bases. Do you think Google breaks up and YouTube? on its own? Never. No. Why would they? No, there's a better chance that they spin out Waymo. They're not going to spin out YouTube. It's a cash cow. It's just Waymo should have its own board of directors, its own CEO, its own capitalization. But what they'll do with Waymo, which will be really smart, is they'll bundle it with Google Maps for the consumer. Oh, I like that.

1:05:16Downtown Josh Brown:So that, yeah. So because Google Maps, I'm guessing it has a billion users. I don't know.

1:05:21Michael Batnick:Let me ask you this. Mr. Belsky. Worst stock in the world. So in your value portfolio, would you ever? Nike's the worst stock in the world. No, it's not. Charter Communications. Oh.

1:05:35Michael Batnick:So Charter bounced. Charter had a very good bounce the other day when Comcast announced that they're doing what they're doing. And the stock gave it all back four days later. And this is a stock that isn't, I mean, obviously, obviously the cord cutting, it's in a secular decline business.

1:05:49Downtown Josh Brown:Right, what is the future? What is the best possible future for Charter? There's no bottom.

1:05:53Michael Batnick:So you're shaking your head no. You wouldn't do it. No. No. Too much debt, too much secular decline. Just no. No. At no price. No price. It reminds me of – This is the worst stock in the world. It reminds me of Boise Cascade. Oh, I remember that. In the early 90s. What is that? Oh, it was just a shitty chemical.

1:06:11Downtown Josh Brown:Ended up shitty. Yeah. Yeah. Why does it remind you of that? I'm a hiccup. What's it going to do? I mean, in a value portfolio, you can look at, okay, Debt to equity below one, earnings below the mark. A lot of debt. Right? That's gone.

1:06:27Michael Batnick:So there's no PE to the rescue. Yep. No PE to the rescue. Where can they operationally turn this thing around? And then demonstrate operationally that they can turn it around. You can blow up management, come in, say, you know, we're going to focus on broadband. We're going to do this. We're going to go. I don't see that coming from them. I don't think they're smart enough. I don't think they have the right product. And the people running these businesses.

1:06:50Downtown Josh Brown:Well, the hyperscalers are buying the satellite providers, and all of this is going to come from space. And if Starlink in two years is offering broadband from space at competitive prices, that's the last nail in the coffin for all the companies that, quote-unquote, used to own the last mile.

1:07:11Michael Batnick:But know what's interesting about these names? You could twist your head in a pretzel. Somebody's buying these stocks. I mean, somebody has to own them. I mean, you think about this. So what's going to happen with T-Mobile, AT &T, Comcast, and the new Comcast, right? Yeah. And Verizon.

1:07:27Downtown Josh Brown:What's going to happen? Look at AT &T. What the hell just happened? Somebody will eventually let there be more mergers, but it could be a real— there might have to be a lot of damage first. A lot of damage. Because T-Mobile was eventually allowed to buy Sprint. Yep. And the regulators stopped that for a decade. And then finally, they realized either these companies merge or they won't make it, and you're going to end up with a duopoly anyway. That's, I mean, that's now all. That's where we're going. And maybe that's what, are airlines going that way too? They sort of have. It's Delta, United. And you got American left.

1:07:58And American's a great, we own American in our small mid-cap because I think.

1:08:02Downtown Josh Brown:Well, they, so this is what's funny about the airlines. They stopped JetBlue from acquiring or merging with Spirit. Then it went out. Then Spirit just goes away. And you know what happens? Delta. Delta takes all the routes. So what did you accomplish by stopping? I don't even understand the logic. So you don't have an extra airline. That didn't, that's not what happened. Nope. What happened is those routes went to a bigger player. Brilliant. Great, great practice of antitrust law. So I'm at a certain point, if these cable companies shrink, the users shrink. Yeah, I guess they'll all be allowed to merge.

1:08:40Downtown Josh Brown:And then somebody might want to be the buyer of one big fat cable company. Maybe. John Malone. Yeah. All right. Nobody wants these socks. Yep. Any stock? All right. So before we, in conclusion. In conclusion. What opportunities did we miss? What else are you excited about for the second half of the year? What names have you been buying lately? Tell us what you like. You know, you're not supposed to have a favorite child, but I've got one. I love the Smid because you can play themes and play fun kind of stories. Like I own this company called Acuity. Acuity makes the tiles. Hang on, Michael just bought and sold it.

1:09:18That's true. For data centers. That's good. Well done. So they make the, on the ceiling, between the ceiling and the very top of the building, that's where the wires are. Okay. Oh, okay. So, Acuity makes the tiles that keep everything cool so your wires don't.

1:09:36Downtown Josh Brown:The wires are in the ceiling. Yeah. And Acuity is cooling them. Yeah, from the tiles. Oh, okay. Yeah, there's stuff like, there's a lot of stuff like that. Cool stuff like that. I mean, thematically. Or like this, we bought this small cap bank in western Pennsylvania called FNB. Another regional thing that, you know, takes advantage of where people are moving to. Right. Yeah. Names like that. So we do this column for CNBC called The Best Stocks in the Market. I heard of it. Are you? Is that your list? They might have mentioned it a few times. Yeah. But one of the things that I love so much about it is it forces me to look at names like what you're describing.

1:10:14Downtown Josh Brown:I would never come across because other people on TV don't talk about them. Their charts look great, which is how they end up on my radar. And then as part of doing the column, Sean and I dive into the story and it's like,

1:10:28Michael Batnick:oh shit, there's a company that actually makes that. What was the company that made janitor suits or something like that? Custodial suits.

1:10:34Downtown Josh Brown:Oh, Ventas. There are businesses, there are like businesses that do things that you're like, that's a public company. Holy shit, all-time high. VTR. Amphenol is one of the biggest winners of the year. Yep. APH. I would never have heard of that if I weren't writing it up last summer. It's just like a signals company that had so many lives before AI was even invented. I think it's like a hundred-year-old company. Wait, hold on.

1:11:03Michael Batnick:Give me some credit. When's the last time you spoke about this? This Ventas.

1:11:07Downtown Josh Brown:A year ago. Dude, that's all I... Is that wild? That's my point. And these are SMIDS. There's information in price, a lot of it. So, Michael, how many publicly traded companies now in the United States? 3 ,500, 3 ,800? Okay. So when we're basically talking about 5 or 10 all the time, think about the others. This is where, right? This is like we're talking stories. That's how I grew up in this business. Stock market is the market of stocks. It's the greatest country in the world. We've got the greatest companies in the world. Right here, all these amazing stories that people don't even know about.

1:11:41And so that's what I'm excited about, still being bullish about the United States and bullish about the markets. And there's different things. But yeah, we have to address what's happening in large cap land. But we also have to think about dividend growth investing and value investing and small cap investing because I do want to think differently and I want to be positioned where people are not. But you're not going to be different or contrarian to be an asshole. You can be contrarian if the analysis backs it up. so that's why if you take a look at these stories or these companies or these themes or the regions that they are I don't think people think like that anymore because we're so focused on NVIDIA

1:12:17Downtown Josh Brown:all the time which is in an 18 % drawdown thanks I'm long I am too I'm there Belsky did you have fun on the show today? no it was terrible I'm sorry it's terrible every time I come here it's terrible it's fantastic thank you so much for the support you guys

1:12:33Michael Batnick:how do advisors find you if they want to loan you? so I want to sell you I want to sell you

1:12:37Downtown Josh Brown:I want to sell your stuff now. So catch us up because we had you on as you launched the new company. Day three. It's amazing. And it's been eight months. You guys are launching things, announcing things. I'm so excited for you. Tell the audience if they want your research, your products, your asset management. How does it all work together? So what we do is different than everybody else. We are a model provider. You skate to where the puck is going. Exactly. Now we know. Thank you. Thank you so much. Just like Whopper gives me shit about Humulus. Humble. Anyway, so we provide a model. We do not compete with our clients, meaning we don't compete with XYZ brokerage firm.

1:13:18We provide XYZ brokerage firm or XYZ RIA with our model on the Focus portfolio. And they trade it?

1:13:24Downtown Josh Brown:And they trade it. They trade it themselves. You give them the buys and sells. Correct. And they enact it. Correct. And if they say - It's a great business. I don't agree with your 2.5 % position in Spotify. I'm not going to buy it. I don't want to buy it. Oh, so they can customize. They have ultimate discretion. All right. Okay. And so we've got great partners in Canada where we have three North American ETFs and one mutual fund. And then we have three North American portfolios in Canada. Basically, they're combined to the U.S. and Canada. In the U.S., we run five separate SMAs, a U.S. focus, which is 46 stocks to beat the S &P 500.

1:14:02We also have an ETF under that, too, ticker symbol HIS. and we have a U.S. large cap value. We have a U.S. dividend growth, U.S. SMID, and then an all cap, which is the best of the 1500. So the best focus and the best SMID.

1:14:17Downtown Josh Brown:So it's mostly models and then a couple of ETFs where people that are not in the models can buy them. Yeah, one ETF in the U.S. and three in Canada, and we'll have more coming in the U.S. as we continue to grow. We're very blessed and fortunate. I think we're going to be close to 500 million AUM. Amazing. and then we've got you know the funny thing about running you've got in under a year yeah but you know the funny thing is you always want you're talking to these people I'm going to give you 100 million 200 million okay yeah no they're not yeah no they're not I mean come on that's the way you wake up you need a three year track you know what you mean I know I know I know it's a long game chugga chugga chugga chugga but we I've got an amazing team but you have fans at brokerage firms and at RIAs all over Canada all over the United States and they have been waiting they've been waiting because for the Belsky model Yeah, because I was at BMO for 13 years, but I was a strategist and analyst in the United States for 23 years before I went to BMO.

1:15:12So they kind of kept me under tight corners at BMO. So we've been really excited to be out in the U.S. marketplace. Are you having fun? Yeah. Okay. It's fantastic. I mean, it's... Because you're building your own thing now. It's mine. And it's kind of like that line from Braveheart when the Irish guy goes, yeah, it's my island, it's mine. Yeah, yeah. It's... it's part exciting and excruciating. You wake up at 2 o 'clock in the morning, am I going to make payroll? You don't have to tell me. Look at me. I mean, come on. When you were naming, when you were saying my bio, CIO, founder, CEO, like I'm chief bottle washer too.

1:15:50Downtown Josh Brown:No, you're everything, but not forever. Yeah, it's amazing. And I have a great team and we've got some great platform partners here in the US and Canada. And we're really starting to climb on the assets and performance is helping. so we're rolling. I'm so proud of you. Thank you. So happy for you. Ladies and gentlemen, Brian Belsky. Thank you guys so much for listening. Thank you for watching. Have an awesome weekend. We'll see you soon.

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