Financial War With Europe, Gold Is Screaming, Netflix and BofA Earnings, the Case for ServiceTitan

30:12All right. So I thought this was interesting. Martin Small said, he was asked about their private offering. He said, we're working on building investable indices that we hope to bring to market here in the next few years. And I think the real opportunity is to try to standardize index rules, to try to standardize pricing frameworks, and ultimately publications so that you can create markets of transparency that ultimately can power futures contracts. What is that? Wait. Oh, they want to create indexes for the private markets. Yeah. Private holdings. Yeah. Right. So, I mean, this is like semantics, but like once you have indexes that become investable through the creation of products based on them and you have millions of people who become investors through these vehicles in these private markets, they're de facto no longer private.

31:04Sure. And then what it becomes is a regulatory arbitrage. It's like public companies or public issuers of debt have to provide 900 lines in disclosure and private assets have to provide 200 lines in disclosure. And then maybe a year later, something goes wrong and the regulators come in and say, actually, it's 300. And then it's five. And eventually, there's sort of like a convergence. But if you have millions of investors, even if there are vehicles standing in between the investors and the holdings, it's still a de facto public investment. I would say that, yeah, as the lines blurge, you would assume that the returns converge or at least a lot of the – use air quotes – alpha deteriorates.

31:48and maybe the best that you could say like charitably is that there will still be diversification benefits from investing in different asset classes even if the illiquidity premium disappears. Yeah, I think that's right. And then like it's – we're still in this land grab phase where we're not sure which of these private assets companies is going to become the dominant player in wealth management where advisors just like – it's like their vanguard. It's like the no-brainer. like the easy button for, all right, I want to give my clients a 10 % sleeve of private credit. Who do I go to? Like ultimately, it's not going to be 500 options.

32:29There'll be like three. No, there's six. There'll be like three eventually because that's just what happens in every category. And I think it's a good bet that BlackRock will be there. I don't know who else. All right, let's do Netflix earnings. All right. So I tried to – Do we have a print? We do have a print. Yeah, they were down 4 % after hours. I tried to buy Netflix last week. I sold it on Wednesday after that disgusting outside day candle. And I'm happy that I did, obviously. I would love to buy it lower. But anyway, we'll see. Let's just get into the report. I made the sale of the year in Netflix completely out of 85%.

33:16You did. That was a very good sale. A hundred bucks. Goodbye. The stock was in a 35 % drawdown prior to this. So whatever it is, it's worse now. So in every one of their Q4 reports, they show the long-term stock price performance of Netflix versus the S &P and the NASDAQ. And it's pretty wild because definitively, Netflix won the streaming wars, right? Over. Not saying that they don't compete with anybody else, but the streaming wars are done. They won. And yet, over the last five years, as dominant as the company has been, they haven't beaten the index. Kind of remarkable. In fact, not even really close.

34:02You took a lot of volatility. A ton, a ton, a ton. And you basically got a cumulative return five years. You got below S &P 500 return. 73 versus 96. Like, you know, like not that close. Yeah. And then they show you like the since IPO where the stock is of 87 ,000%. Yeah. I mean, of course. Ridiculous. Almost nobody held it since 2001 when they were mailing out DVDs. I would say Reed Hastings and probably some other early employees of that. All right. So let's get into the numbers. So they opened the report saying, in 2025, we met or exceeded all of our financial objectives. $45 billion of revenue up 16 % year over year.

34:45Operating margin of 29.5 % up three points. Add revenue more than 2.5x to over$1.5 billion. Not nothing. They did announce, so they stopped reporting subscribers, but they did announce that their past 325 million paid members operating. I mean, yeah, just great numbers. So they said, here's what they're focused on in 2026 that I thought was interesting. So live events, Warner Brothers, sustaining healthy growth. Then they end it with the entertainment business remains vibrant and intensely competitive, and we're optimistic about our future. So I read the report and I took it as, holy shit, man.

35:29Like, yes, they're winning. Yes, they won. It is ruthlessly competitive. And here's the data point that caught my eye. In the second half of 2025, our members watched 96 billion hours on Netflix, which is a number that's so big, it's hard to really fathom what that even means. But it's only up 2 % year over year. Like, that's nuts. Because I'll tell you why. They beat a lot of the board level mini bosses, but now it's Bowser. Okay? It's YouTube. And they reached the final level, the end of the final level. They're in the dungeon, right? They're working their way into the castle. The princess is tied up.

36:15And now you have to fight Bowser. You have to fight Alphabet, bro. This is not Hulu. Those games that you won, congratulations, you beat Disney+. You beat Peacock. All right, that's cool. You won a bunch of rounds. You went toe-to-toe with some serious players. But now you've got to go up against YouTube, and YouTube thinks that they are in your business. YouTube does not see a distinction other than they have a better cost structure for content. They don't pay for any of it. Outside of that, YouTube sees itself in the Netflix business. They don't see themselves in the online video. They think they should be everywhere.

37:04They think they should be on living room TV, phones, desktop computers. It doesn't make a difference. They want the attention and the eyeballs and they are ready to fight. And so that's why you see Netflix trying to pull YouTube creators and put them exclusively on their platform. Right now, it's sort of affordable to do. And I guess YouTube's response will be, okay, we'll just have even more creators come along. You're gonna buy them all? So that's the battle now. And that's why I think that watch hours, 96 billion hours, which is an insane number. That's why I think you see that leveling off though.

37:44Because at a certain point, Now you run into the daddy of all streaming and online video. And it's, dude, it's Google. Like, you know, cannot be overstated. It's a bigger company with bigger resources, a lower cost of content, a global audience just like you have. And every format, long form, short form, they're doing shorts. They're encouraging creators to pretty much do anything. that they want to do. And now it's harder. So I think the stock reflects that. It does. It definitely does. Another thing that stood out to me within the watched hours is the growth is only occurring with originals.

38:33In fact, the library, everything else, everything that's like suits, for example, anything that's not new material, saw a decrease in total hours viewed. So it is ruthlessly competitive. They laid it out there. I don't think that Netflix is like in trouble or, I mean, it's competitive and that's what it is. And the stock is down 38 % or whatever. If it falls below 80, I will absolutely back up the truck. You know what's funny? The narrative, like in the last three weeks, has shifted from, oh my God, Netflix is so dominant. They're going to buy Warner Brothers too. Boy, Netflix really needs Warner Brothers.

39:10Like how fast did that happen? Yep. Like if Netflix doesn't get Batman and Harry Potter, they're f***ed. Like that's the – but I just pictured like two months ago it was like, whoa, they have boxing. They have UFC. They have football. They have basketball. Like Netflix is getting everything. They won. They won the streaming wars. And now it's like, man, I sure hope they get some more content that's proprietary. That narrative is mostly partly true. Like obviously there's more than a little bit in there. But I think it's being overdone due to the reaction of the stock price. Like I think the stock price was in a 16 % drawdown.

39:52Nobody would be talking like this. Yeah, but put the drawdown chart up, John. It's 35%. It looks like something's wrong. Like it doesn't look like profit-taking. It looks like something is like materially wrong with Netflix. That's why that narrative is catching on. I'm not saying that's the case. I'm just saying that's why that narrative is catching on. You can't blame arbitrageurs for a 35 % haircut in the share price. They're not that powerful. No, dude, it's real. It's real. Obviously, the price is what the price is. There's plenty of willing buyers and sellers out there. I'm just saying I think the narrative that we're discussing that is out there about they're screwed if they don't buy Warner Brothers, that is being taken, in my opinion, a little bit too far due to the price.

40:38I don't think it's quite that dire. All right. Let's do some Fed stuff. Kalshi has an interesting bet up that many people are taking part in based on the volume. It's not huge, but it's not zero either. Yeah, that's real. It's real. So it's$45 million as of the time I grabbed this screenshot, which was 30 minutes ago or an hour ago. right? Is that the right way to say it? 45 million worth of contract volume? Okay. All right. So this is basically, I just, I cut it off at the top four because everybody else is at 3 % or lower. This is the horse race between Kevin Warsh, Rick Reeder out of nowhere in the second slot.

41:27So it's Kevin Warsh at 50%, Rick Reeder at 26%, Christopher Waller at 11, and Kevin Hassett at 8%, which I was surprised by. This is the derby to be nominated as Fed chair. Powell's term is done in May, for those who aren't paying close attention to this. And Trump has made it very clear that Powell is going to go. And one of these gentlemen or somebody that nobody's even talking about is the likely replacement. And it's sort of like a derby because it is going back and forth. It is definitely moving, and people are placing these bets. Let's put that chart up one more time. The blue line, Mike, is Rick Reeder shooting from obscurity, looks like low single-digit percentage, up to 26%, and I have no information as to why that's the case.

42:25Waller started out in April as a strong candidate. He was probably saying positive things about tariffs at the time. I don't really remember. He's been bleeding ever since. And obviously, Warsh is still the front runner. And we've talked about on this show, he's married to Ron Lauder's daughter. Trump's known him his entire life. And Trump is best friends with Lauder, as in Estee Lauder. And this would sort of keep it in the family, so to speak. I don't understand, though, because I don't follow this stuff super closely, but I follow what Neil is saying. And from all accounts, it looks like Kevin Warsh is like a super hawkish guy.

43:03He really has always hated inflation. That doesn't sound like the type of person that Trump would like in office. Unless there are conversations behind the scenes where it's like being super hawkish is just the character that I play. I actually will do what you need me to do, Donald. Ronald, like I think that that's maybe the explanation. It's like he doesn't really believe all this shit he's been saying for the last 25 years. Like in the end, he's just – he's ready to be an operative here for the White House. Here's my question. If you knew definitively who would be the next Fed chair, would you do anything different with your portfolio allocation?

43:49Absolutely not. Absolutely not. No. Really? Nothing different? Really? Why? What would you do? I don't know. I'm not sure, but I'm not sure it's absolutely not. I'll do you one better. Even if you told me the path of interest rates, I don't know that I would do anything different than my portfolio. You might be feeling different with fixed income. Within reason. Like if you told me that rates were going to zero or something stupid, yeah, sure. I would do... Right. Okay. Okay, here's Neil Dutta, friend of the show of Ren Mac, who took a chainsaw out and came after Kevin Warsh. Here's Neil. Time for DJT to feel the market.

44:33It's no secret I'm not a fan of Kevin Warsh. I did not like him for Treasury Secretary after the 24 election, and I don't like him for the Fed either. As a general principle, I think anyone who invokes Kant, Locke, and Hobbes in speeches about central banking is better off being at a think tank sitting in an ivory tower than in front of the public. Warsh has been hawkish his entire career, Michael, to your point. He hates inflation, even when it's running below the Fed's target. It's one thing to be wrong. It's another to be wrong in the same direction. It would be an interesting choice given the president's policy views.

45:11Trump risks getting duped. Warsh might make sense if this was Paul Ryan's GOP, but it's not. We are talking about someone who has been critical of tariffs and not pursuing enough free trade deals in the past. The good thing about Warsh, to the extent that I have anything nice to say about him, is that he isn't very good at doing the blocking and tackling of economic analysis, which is why he could easily get pushed around by the FOMC. And in the last – so it sounds how do you really feel yeah dude dada i don't know what do you think happened between these two guys neil is like the nicest this is uh dude this guy must really suck this guy must suck um i don't know enough about it to have an opinion myself the last thing from neil real quick notice that has it had his moment in the sun late last year during this time 10-year yields generally rose the market is now flirting with kevin warsh again 10-year treasury yields are climbing.

46:09Markets aren't stupid. And no, both candidates are compromised, changing their views to accommodate the president. That's why the long end is rising. Personally, I don't see either being able to sway the committee to a dovish position, although Hassett might be more effective. Put this chart up. So this is the same Kalshi horse race. He's using Kalshi's data. But then And the gray line is the U.S. 10-year treasury yield. So on the right Y-axis, it's the treasury yield, which is now making one year, I guess it's six-month highs. So it's following Warsh, which is like the gold line. The gray and the gold.

46:47Yes. Those two now appear to be correlated as that red line, which is Hassett, completely breaks down. Right, right, right. I mean, there's other stuff going on, but yeah, it's pretty good. Okay. Yeah. Um, okay. Uh, we done with that topic? Um, we're definitely not done with it, but we're done with it for tonight. Good enough. All right. Um, so the max seven is breaking down and we mentioned this with JC, like what was so interesting about this entire period of like, when are they going to stop working? I think the assumption was that they were going to be the last to go, right? That it was going to be a repeat of the.com bubble bursting where everything was going to roll over.

47:30They were going to be the last things holding up the market. And then they would finally come tumbling down. What if it's the opposite this time? And I'm not suggesting it is. I'm just saying, what if, what if it is? So we have this weird dynamic playing out where the Russell 2000 has outperformed the, the mag seven, I'm sorry, the S and P for 12 consecutive sessions, which is the longest period outside of 2008. And in fact, Josh, I had chart kit and Matt show me the rolling 12-day return. Show me the spread. So 7.3 % is the current level of outperformance, which is not nothing. In fact, it is the fifth or sixth largest event since the turn of the century.

48:14So meaningful outperformance. So the question is this, next chart. You see the MAG7 breaking down through the rest of the market. Now, if you invert that - This is a great chart. Yeah. So it could be seen as a positive. Like, all right, well, great. The rest of the market, The 493 is finally taking the baton. And you see that while the small caps are breaking out. So which is going to win? Is it like the risk on of the small caps? Or is it, holy shit, we're losing the leaders? I tend to think the risk on signal is stronger given that we're in a long bull market and bulls deserve the benefit of the doubt.

48:44But I'm definitely open-minded to the fact that maybe it's not all good. Put that last chart up. I, so I made my feel this, uh, last week. I sort of feel like it's just another oscillation and it'll fade. And then everyone will say, LOL. Remember I got all bulled up on small caps because they had this massive 7 % outperformance for a week, uh, early in January. A lot of this to me is financial advisors and maybe some family office money, some institutions, maybe even some like pensions just like doing a rote run-of-the-mill new year rebalance whatever underperformed the most over the last year or wherever you're underweight buy more of that sell whatever you're up the most in and we look at it like there's some sort of like um strategy to it or like change of character in the market and it's just a f***ing rebalance and that's until I'm proven wrong, like three more months go by and the Russell is ripping relative to large.

49:55I just, I know too much. I've been around for too many of these. They always disappoint. So I think large caps trend, small caps oscillate. And I know it's offensive to people that make their living in small caps and they want there to be this year of outperformance. When it happens, I'll apologize. guys. I'm not getting sucked into it. I just, I can't. I can't afford to. Fair enough. But chart back on. So forget about the bottom pain. What about the top one? What about the MAG-7 breaking down? Super interesting. That's more interesting to me. The S &P relative to MAG-7 is way more interesting to me.

50:32Is this bearish or bullish? And I genuinely don't know. Okay. It's super bullish. The energy sector is going to go from like 2 % of the stock market to 6 % this year. It's going to triple in proportion. That's what I think is going to happen. And I think a lot of that money will come from people getting bored of the same mega caps that stop working. I just think that's how it works. And people can convince me, oh, the money doesn't have to come from anywhere. It comes from savings accounts, or you'll never know where it comes from, or every seller has a buy. You know what? No. People get bored of trades that stop working and look for trades that are working.

51:14That's it. I really don't think it's complex. I'm sorry. There's Tesla money that's in gold miners right now. It is. You don't have to like it. I just know it's true. So my opinion is that's a bullish development. I don't care about this leadership trope. It doesn't matter to me if Microsoft sits out 2026. I still think the market could have a good year. So, I mean, that's my – I'm an optimist though also. Remember this. So everything I say is always like, yeah, things will probably be okay. So I could be wrong about that, but I think it's possible you could lose the leadership of the last three years and have those stocks do not much in aggregate, and the S &P does fine because new areas of the market step up.

51:58It happens all the time. Well, it's been a minute. It hasn't happened in a minute. it. I would love to see it. All right. Next topic. I found myself in complete agreement with Sir Michael Burry over the weekend. So I don't subscribe to his sub stack, but I do read his stuff when he just posted outside of the subscription product. And here's what he said. I want to hear what you think. I think most critics of my articles have not taken the time to read them. I know that's true because nobody wants to be behind the paywall. This is the thing as a hedge fund manager. We have to disclose our positions.

52:40But just as no one wants a dissertation on each position, no one wants to pass on the opportunity to give offhand, poorly researched criticisms of such positions. This is why black box managers tend to have the most outrageous returns. Jim Simons did 50 % a year with his black box. Many individual investors do 50 % a year with their own private portfolios. Even I did almost 50 % a year at Scion when it was a complete black box. But few do that when they have to disclose their positions every week, month, quarter, because the criticism for holding an obvious loser can be not only scathing, but in this day and age, viral.

53:22I'll pause there. Chart off. What do you think about that concept? I think it's spot on. I think what he said is so obviously true. There's no other side. I think for the most part, people don't have the attention span to read past the headline where all of the nuance is buried. And they just get mad and they start yelling and they start yelling at each other and they rile each other up. And yeah, nobody reads past the headline. But just this idea like Jim Simons with a black box does not have to come out on Substack or Bloomberg television and explain why the firm is doing what they're doing and then be held out for criticism where Twitter idiots and journalists and competing funds all have their say about it and then have to withstand the criticism.

54:11And I think that's exactly right, which leads me to my point, which is maybe shut up. Maybe if the criticism is too much, not to Michael Burry, to everybody, maybe it's a good idea to just invest and be quiet and not feel the need to – it's not enough for me to make money in this trade. I have to convince everyone in advance that it's going to be right. And then when it goes against me, I have to defend it. It's a ridiculous way to try to make money. But for these people where their filings are public, they sort of have no choice. What are they supposed to do? They have the light on them in many cases from their investors, from the public.

54:55Yes. But if you are not a public figure, like if you just are not out writing sub stacks and commenting on Twitter, you have less to worry about. Think about how many hedge funds don't say a word. They allocate and they're not in the mix. Get out of the mix. But they talk to their investors. And I think this is one of the hardest parts about managing money with individual positions. Whether you're in the spotlight or you're just communicating with your investors, it is really difficult because you could change your mind and be right for changing your mind. But then people like, well, you were invested and now you're not.

55:37It's like, well, yeah, I was wrong. I changed my mind. That's what good investors are supposed to do. Or I thought this, I thought this, and then something changed, and now I think that. And then unfortunately – And wouldn't you ridicule me if I didn't change my mind? But unfortunately, a lot of investors see that as weakness somehow. And it's hard. It's hard. There's a lot of investors out there that would be like, thank you. You got it wrong. You were transparent. You didn't bullshit me. You didn't dig in your heels and started coming up with all sorts of gymnastics about why you're going to be right.

56:09Yeah, but in the moment, it looks like you're an idiot. Yeah, it looks like you're an idiot, which is unfortunate, but that's the way it works. So I think one of the reasons why Burry so uniquely was able to withstand the scathing criticism beyond criticism from his investors who were trying to rip money out of the fund is because for his sake, fortunately, he's on the spectrum. And most people, most people that have the emotional wherewithal can't take that because it's punishing. It's too much. It's too much. And to his benefit, he has the ability to sort of whatever, not process it the way that most people do.

56:45And it uniquely worked for him. Most people are not in that situation. It's really difficult to withstand the pressure from people getting mad at you like that. I certainly couldn't take it. I agree. I just have a couple of things that I would share in the same vein. Number one, you only think you want to be a contrarian because it sounds cool and it looks romantic in the movies. Like I was right when everyone was wrong. It's like almost, it's so seductive. But to your point, most people aren't built for it, will never develop the degree of conviction needed to endure a contrarian trade that at first goes against them in private, let alone in the public eye with millions of people paying attention.

57:31Nobody could do it. Almost nobody could do it. So that's one. Two, if you're going to go against the grain and fight a trend, just be quiet. Don't make yourself synonymous with the call and ask yourself, do I want the money from this trade or do I want the credit, the public accolades? What's more important to me? I honestly think for some people it's the credit, especially billionaires because you need more money. You monetize the credit. Right. Two more things. The people that you're arguing with needlessly should have money invested with you. Otherwise, who are you arguing with? Why are you arguing?

58:19I mean it seems insane almost. It's like this is what I think. Now I'm going to have a brawl with people that are hiding behind fake names. Why? I'm not sure. My ego? I don't know. And then the last thing, when in doubt, just be quiet. If you're right, the market will reward you. You don't also need to get the crowd on your side while you're placing bets. What would make that necessary? L-O-L. Why? If you're right in public, you're going to be pretty damn noisy. Let's be honest. I'm different. I'm built different than most people. I can withstand. Do you have any idea how many psychopaths I've had to listen to tell me every reason why I'm wrong about everything I ever say?

59:04I don't – to me, I don't need the black box. I'm good. I really don't care at all. I'm not suggesting that other people attempt that. I think answering to clients is hard enough. Like why add another degree of difficulty answering to the public? It seems like an insane thing to want to do. So I thought Barry nailed it. He's right. And you're right. Being a contrarian and surviving is almost impossible because the way that prices work – I think I'm stealing this from somebody. In fact, I know I am. I don't know who said this. If you're going to be a contrarian, that means that you're going against the crowd.

59:41Yeah. So I'm not that, by the way. Also, there's another aspect to it. And the way that these things work is that rising prices attract buyers and falling prices attract sellers. And that is just permanent. That's never going to change. So if you are always on the other side of that, that's like impossible. Just mentally, emotionally. And falling prices attract ridicule. Right, right. So it's not a fun way to make a living. It's shaded, shaded, especially if you're a named person. It's shade and Freud. so you're like, oh, everyone thinks that guy's so smart. Look how much he's down in blank stock, and it feeds on itself.

1:00:20All right, we're doing make the case in the mystery chart, and then we're going to bounce out of here. We are already running up against the clock, so I'll do this quickly. Service Titan is a new name in my own personal portfolio. Are you familiar with it? No. Why do you own this? Please tell me. What do you think it is? You're making a face like I just threw a bag of trash at you. So what is it about the name or the ticker symbol that was so offensive? No, normally when you're making the case, we buy stocks that are going up. This is not doing anything like that. So I'm curious to hear the case.

1:00:55It's misunderstood. Like a young Josh Brown. People are not giving it credit for what it is. I don't know this company. And they're worried about what it's not. All right, go ahead. It's a category killer, but it's so early for this category that it does not yet have meaningful market share because nobody does, and most of its potential users don't even understand that it exists. Think about the people who come to do work on your house, landscapers, plumbers, HVAC, roofers, people digging a pool, the guys that come and work on the bulkhead in your backyard for the boats. Think about the thousand different service providers who will be at your house at some point or your business at some point over the next 30 years.

1:01:44What a lot of them have in common is billing is sort of a nightmare. It's invoices. It's putting things in your mailbox. It's like the 19th century for a lot of these trades, and it's not their fault. They haven't had somebody billed specific for them. and Service Titan has changed that. It's run by the founders. It came public like a year ago. I was on the floor the day it came public. They are still running it. They have a great story. I think it's like an Armenian-American family and it's two brothers. But anyway, they call themselves the Operating System for Residential and Commercial Trades.

1:02:25It's more than a point solution. Once contractors adopt scheduling, dispatch, billing, payments, and CRM all in one platform, the switching costs become very high. So if it reminds you of Toast, which is another one of my favorite stocks for the next few years, that's exactly what led me to it originally. So they are very early in this adoption phase when all of these guys, mostly guys working in the trades, are starting to get these handheld things and really modernize themselves. But it's every trade that you can imagine they have software for. and this stock wrongly put up this chart, looks like shit, wrongly got caught up in this software sell-off.

1:03:11Like, are we honestly saying, chart off, are we honestly saying that electricians are going to start vibe coding their own billing apps with f***ing AI? Like, is that what we're saying here? Give me a break. That's obviously not, this company's core customer is not developing their own apps on AI. It's the dumbest sell-off I've ever seen, and they will have massive market share in this space, and I think this sell-off will look stupid. The last earnings report, Q326. That's a contrarian in Utah. I'm being contrarian. Revenue grew 25 % year over year to$250 million. Platform revenue up 25%. Net dollar retention exceeded 110%, which means they're not only adding customers, not losing anyone.

1:04:0295 % of revenue is platform, derived from subscription and usage-based products, so not transaction, sticky. Platform gross margin, 80%, up from 77%. Total gross margin reads 74.5%, I think, for the year. So Morgan Stanley upgraded it this morning. Didn't really matter much. Overweight from equal weight. Price target, 130. underappreciated long-duration compounder. That's what I think. TD Cowan,$150 price target. Reiterated a buy. Let's see. KeyBank Overweight. The category leader in trades-focused vertical software with a widening moat. Needham. Buy rating. Target 140. Focused on the stickiness of the platform and high switching costs.

1:04:52These customers are not switching. I don't think they're going to trade shows and demoing five pieces of software. So everyone that this company gets on the platform is probably a light, consider that an LTV, lifetime value of that customer. So I'm getting more attracted to the stock because it sells off, not less. What are your thoughts? Would you buy some? How do I get you in this stock? I am shrinking, aggressively shrinking my personal stock portfolio. I don't, but I do like the story. One interesting thing. They were asked about the difference between mom and pop customers and PE-backed competitors.

1:05:34Private equity has been rolling up all these HVAC businesses and roofing businesses. So they say. The PE-backed companies in the trades are like their best customer. They're the fastest to adopt. They're the fastest to upgrade. They're the fastest to try different products in the same vertical. And so it's almost a play on PE. As PE buys all these companies and modernizes them, the odds of Service Titan being pulled in. So it's like a sales force for carpenters. Yeah, it's a good story. I really, I'm telling you, there's something here. Anyway, not investment advice. Do your own research. I'm not your broker or whatever.

1:06:14All right, good, good, good one. Okay, I've got a mystery chart for you. I think I have two charts. Would you, this is an easy one. Hold on, I have a question in the chat. Michael is aggressively shrinking his portfolio. Need more? Let's dig into that. He's not shrinking it. The market is shrinking it. He owns the wrong stocks. Wrong. Can I help you? No, no, no, no. No, no, no, no. I am selling, I am aggressively selling my individual stocks. Matter of fact, the only one, the only one that I still own, like literally the only single one that i still own is imax um and i will have more to say in the coming weeks about why i did that playing playing like buffett huh i'm expecting a market meltdown i'm keeping the dry the powder dry no i'm only kidding that's not a market call it's nothing to do with that um okay all right here's my mystery chart so this is a dow component and uh obviously it's looking horrific that this is a short-term chart this is a one-year candle daily and then you should know this and then the next one is uh let me zoom out a little bit this is a weekly three-year and uh do you think this do you think this is gonna hold i mean obviously there's been this was a way this was a winner in 24 yeah do you think that do you think the support holds i mean it looks like it's cracking had a false breakdown 25 false breakdown or all the way is this home depot no can i have one more clue yeah it's a it's a it's a down I got that.

1:07:46Throw the previous chart up. We speak about this. We've been speaking about this a lot. Oh, my God. What is this? Dow component? Is it Nike? No. Come on, dude. I don't know. I can't get it. See, it's hard. I only follow the best stocks in the market. I don't look at trash like this. That's true. The lights were brighter than you expected. CRM. That's Salesforce. Yeah. You know what, dude? Dude, I don't – once they look like this, they're off my radar. I had no time for this. Where is this going? A lot lower. Is this going into the hundreds? It looks really bad. Now, maybe it's on false breakdown watch, but you can't assume that.

1:08:28It looks terrible. You know what's crazy about this thing? Like they already did all the efficiency stuff. Like they already laid off, I don't know, thousands of people. Like they did that three years ago. they already had the activist battles adobe looks the same i mean these names i got stopped out of adobe same these names look so bad and i don't know there's i don't know this is this is tough i mean i this is just a market-wide re-rating of software to the downside the likes of which we haven't seen in 25 years look at service i mean service now just literally puking i mean this is uh and this is a name that like a a business that people like revere like this is allegedly like one of the best run businesses i mean what do i know but we're uh work work days in this group it dude so it's they're puking like um i don't know i i feel like at some point like this is a crash that needs to be bought for as much as we're saying that like selling prices attract sellers i would say don't buy falling knife uh i'm not buying these names i'm gonna I missed the bottom of these.

1:09:33That's fine. Good. Miss them. Miss the bottom. It's not for me. Don't do this. I don't do this. And I tried with Adobe. I thought it's – I didn't say it's going to bottom, but I thought like if it's going to bounce, it should bounce here. That lasted six days, and then it rolled right over. For me, these names are now permanently in the penalty box. If I revisit these names, it will be with a higher low at a minimum or when the sellers dry up because obviously that's not even close. I mean, maybe we're close. Who knows? But it's puking. Yeah, I don't play this game, and I'm not going to try now.

1:10:07Okay, guys, thank you so much for watching the show. Michael and I love seeing the live audience. You guys were on fire today. We appreciate you. For those of you listening, Spotify, Apple Podcasts, those of you watching the replay on YouTube, we love you too. We know not everybody could be here for the live, and that's cool. Thank you guys so much. I want to remind everybody, tomorrow is Wednesday, All new episode of Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben. Later on Wednesday, another live stream, Ask the Compound. It's Duncan and Ben, and they are answering your questions. And you guys can get a question into them by emailing ask the – I think it's askthecompoundshow at gmail.com.

1:10:50Do I have that right? You don't know? All right. It's something like that. It's something like that. Boom. There it is. Askthecompoundshow at gmail.com. So if you want Ben and Duncan to tackle your personal finance or investing question, that is the best place to send it. And then we'll be back with an absolutely insane episode of The Compound and Friends at the end of the week. We got you covered wall to wall. Keep it locked. We'll talk to you soon. Thanks again. Good night.

1:11:29Thank you.

1:11:59an interest in any security or investment product. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by Ritholtz Wealth Management unless a client service agreement is in place.