HALO Stocks, Spotify Beats, Robinhood Reports

30:52um oh you showed me the igv sharers positioning hold on i thought i had i thought i had a different chart maybe maybe i threw it in somewhere later just the just the retail pile into igv like like all of a sudden they came running into buy the dip and i think i have that somewhere in here i haven't seen it doesn't matter all right before we move to the next topic I just want to read you, just getting back to the Schwab thing. Let me read you the lead in a Bloomberg article today, Josh, and let me see your reaction. Tax planning and wealth management stocks sank Tuesday after financial software provider Altruist launched an artificial intelligence tool for creating tax strategies, sparking concerns that traditional players could be at risk.

31:42Like, literally, and zero disrespect. We love Jason. What? uh i i all right so the the backdrop though is um did you see what s &p global did today smushed and the stock is getting murdered murder like literally axe murdered the stock went down 43 points today just because just cause it pre-market was down like 20 percent So it's a panicky environment. People don't want to be in the next stock that potentially could be down 20%. And that's why they're reacting this way. Green chart, John, slime green chart. So this is the nature of the market. It's just get rid of it. We're looking at a chart of daily equity turnover and it just topped a trillion dollars.

32:38This is the average daily US equity market. so yeah people are just not waiting around sell it get it out whack it off ian is asking why did did s sp s &p global do what it did today they reported earnings this morning they reported earnings but and i i don't even know if the earnings were good i don't even know if it would matter i honestly like i've never i've never seen anything like this i haven't listed the call i'm actually all right they were supposed to i mean they were supposed to report four dollars 34 cents they did$4.30. That's not it. That's not it. All right. So I am of the view that this broadening out, this halo rotation is very bullish.

33:22That is my opinion. But it is also reasonable to talk about the other side. Well, market has lost leadership. Is it about to top? So I've got a bunch of charts to get through. Let's look at the top 50 stocks from Adam Parker. We're looking at the median gross margin by mega cap stock, ex-financials, ex-real estate. And yeah, guess what? A lot of the mega cap tech growth, wow, that's a mouthful, is getting sold because their margins are getting smushed. The market is not dumb. In fact, I would argue it's smart. Next chart, please. You love to see this. The S &P 500, the price is going up. The multiple is coming down.

34:02I'd say that's pretty healthy. Would you agree? The price is going up, but well is it healthy or is it concerning because why is the multiple coming down and people are I like it I like fear um duality research check out this no sniffer of a chart just last week the S &P 500 recorded the most 50 new 52 week highs since 2024 on a day that was likely the worst since liberation day for many investors how's that yeah I mean it's unreal it's just this like bifurcation and people are just, they're not worried about most of the stocks. They're worried about some stocks and they happen to be worried about some of the biggest stocks or were the biggest stocks.

34:48It's hard to make the case that the market is peaking when you have so many stocks going up. I know that sounds like circular, but look at this next one from duality. If you look back at how the S &P 500 peaked a year ago, both breadth measures were already rolling over. We're talking about the New York Stock Exchange advanced decline line, as well as the number of stocks above their 200-day. That's in the green and the purple, and the gray backdrop is the S &P. So those breadth names were already rolling over. Right now, literally, we're seeing the exact opposite. I read the Adam Parker piece.

35:22And what he's saying is that the market is now pricing in lower margins. And the reason that matters is because the leadership stocks of the market had been the companies that were expanding margins. And now the markets are afraid that the biggest margin expanders are going to go through this multiple re-rate lower because – and we're talking about mag-7. Amazon says we're going to spend$200 billion in CapEx. Crazy. Everyone's CapEx numbers are going up, which sounds great, and it is. You sell semiconductors, but it's unlikely that margins will survive. And I just want to I want to just share this one data point that I thought was OK.

36:12The largest 10 companies are spending 35 percent of all the capital spending dollars of the top 2000 U.S. companies. And that is clearly poised to massively rise, given the guidance from the largest companies. And Adam says this has to be a problem. We pointed out a couple of weeks ago, a legitimate bear case for US equities is a lack of Goldilocks on hyperscaler capital spending, meaning too little and people get concerned that companies are worried about the return on investment. Too much CapEx and it results in an inevitable data center overbuild. I think that's a good take, but what if a company announces that they're going to spend not$200 billion in 2026?

37:00What if next quarter Amazon says, all right, we're going to pull it back to 160? You think the market freaks out? Maybe the market rallies on that and says, thank God. You know what? It's a great question. But again, back to the gross margin story, he's saying gross margins of the mega caps are contributing to this overall gross margin degradation. And he points out median gross margins among the top 50 stocks have just fallen from 55.7 % in December to 50.6 % at the end of January. And that is the lowest level for gross margins since 2012. So these used to be asset light companies with just insane gross margins.

37:48And now given all the investments that they're making, and I'm not saying they're bad investments and all the spending, and by the way, taking on a lot of debt too, et cetera, the gross margin story is degrading, starting with the biggest companies. And he's just pointing that out as a market headwind? I would say that's a market headwind, a bear case for the mega cap stocks that are doing all the spending. Their bear case is the bulk case for the 65 % of the companies that are beneficial to all of this. So let's skip the next chart, John, and go to the breadth dashboard. So we're looking at the stocks above their moving averages, various from 10 to 200 days by sector.

38:27We're looking at the ones that are making new highs by four week, all the way up to 52 week, the ones that are making new lows, and we're looking at RSI. So So this is a chart kit special. And the first thing that I want to look at is making new lows. All right. There's no staples. There's no energy. There's no materials. Look at this. What's making new lows in the short term. And there's really no 52 week lows to speak of. I mean, even within tech, which is, you know, the epicenter, it's 5.7%. Communication services, 8.7%. They're making new eight week lows, new 12 week lows. And yeah, they're falling below their moving averages.

39:03But look at the halos, the industrials, the staples, the energy. Look at the percentage of other moving average. They're all working. Yeah, they look amazing. They're all working. They're all working and barely any losers in those sectors. And if they are losers in those sectors, they're not noteworthy companies for the most part. Okay. Do you know UPS just hit my list of best stocks in the market? UPS. Remember what a basket case that stock was the last time we talked about it, which is probably sometime in the middle of last year? because UPS is halo. It's physical delivery of goods. There's no workaround.

39:41If you need to move things from point A to point B, you're using either UPS or one of their competitors, but people aren't up at night worried about somebody like stealing their thunder. And that's just, it's just a totally different market this year. And it's actually pretty exciting. Okay. So is the market about to top? I've got two more for you. This is from Blue Kurdic. Pull this from the Daily Chart book. All right. The VIX closed above 21 after staying below it for 49 straight days. Historically, this setup has been bullish. In the prior 28 cases, the S &P 500 was negative only twice 12 months out.

40:25Okay? Only two times out of the most recent 28 cases. We don't see those conditions today. This is a healthy market pullback. I would agree with the data. What market pullback though? Right. Well, there was a stock pullback. The stocks have pulled back. Stocks have pulled back. Here's another one. Here's another one. From Turning Point Market Research, he's looking at the S &P 500 after more than 18 % of its members registered a 52-week high. And it was at the highest level in over a year. And look at all those green arrows. There was one time it didn't work out. So yeah, there's no guarantee.

41:08But this type of broadening is bullish AF. It just is. It doesn't mean it's going to work 100 % of the time, but that's what it is until it's not. I think where it becomes problematic is obviously like whatever's working will always go too far. And then if all of these like quote unquote broadeners don't deliver on earnings or guidance, then it's like, well, what do we have to hang our hats on now? Yeah, of course. That's right. Of course. No, but historically though, you had these 20 % growers, mega cap software stocks with massive margins and unbelievably reliable cash flow streams from license revenue.

41:50And the market could fall back on those and they're gone. You don't have that layer in the market of surefire stocks because they're no longer that. are taking the money out of those names and they're putting it into other names. I just hope those other names don't disappoint. So do I. Last one. I thought this was a really good chart. All right. Returns in 2025 versus so far in 2026. And what I notice here is the winners in 2025, it's really like almost all the nothing. They're either getting killed or they're ripping. There's really no in between. I guess one of us, but that doesn't count. That's a special sitch.

42:30So on the one hand, the stocks that are under pressure that were major winners, AppLove and Palantir, Robinhood. And the winners that won last year that are continuing, Micron, Seagate, Western Dig, Lamb Research, Corning. I wish I loved anything as much as you love saying Western Dig. I really – I wish I did. I wish I did. I can't – wait, put that back up. What else is on there? Teradyne. What's Fix? How come I don't know that stock? Fix? Is that? What is that? No way. It's not the S &P. It can't be. Fix stock. I don't know either. Lambert search is on here. Comfort systems. I don't know what that is.

43:13Comfort systems. Oh, HVAC. Oh, that's Halo. Oh, that's so Halo. Are you kidding me? So Halo. That is like the definition of Halo. All right, let's do Robinhood. So Robinhood is my favorite report to look at. just visually they do a phenomenal job and robin hood robin hood's got a good thing going i mean the stock was under pressure not tonight but it doesn't matter it's a great business it really is they're they're killing it yep let's go to some charts all right uh the first thing i want to say is just the reaction and this could obviously change um this stock has fallen from 150 to where it closed tonight at 85 and in the post market is now down to 79.

43:57this is a full 50 haircut if it opens at this price tomorrow it's true it's crypto it's trading off crypto period so somebody was saying like their revenue their crypto revenue percentage has fallen so much it's like less than 10 at this point i don't think that's true that's not true i haven't It can't be true, right? We have it here. Let's go through some charts. All right. Total platform assets,$324 billion. Is that, I mean, unbelievable. Is that 68 %? What does that say year over year? Put it this way. No one else in this industry has a growth rate that looks like this. Nobody. All right. So here are some things that are not awesome.

44:35Next chart. The total net revenue was up 1 % quarter over quarter. So, you know, stalled out there. operating expenses are growing. And I don't think the street like this. Operating expenses, the outlook was 2.6 to$2.75 billion. Represents 18 % year-over-year growth. That's high. Street did not like that. All right, next chart. What's in that? Stop-based compensation I get. What's in their operating expenses? I'm guessing it's built out of prediction markets and investing in the business. I didn't have time to read into it yet. I guess SG &A, the advertising would be there. They're spending a ton of money on ads.

45:21That I know. Check this out. Transaction-based revenue. So the options are just unbelievable. Options up 41 % year over year. It's where most of their revenue, by far, 3 % quarter over quarter. But look at the crypto. So it's still massive. Options is the neon yellow. Options is neon, yeah. So crypto is the light gray. So interestingly, it's down 38 % year over year. It's down 80 % quarter over quarter, but it's still a significant piece of the revenue. 221 out of 776. I don't know who I was listening to. They were like, people don't understand like crypto is not as important as it used to be.

46:06I'm like, it's not. Yes, it is. I feel like it definitely is, right? Look at the stock and look at Bitcoin. It's the same thing. All right, this is wild. Net interest revenue was up 39 % to$411 million. And the thing that jumps out, obviously, to me anyway, is margin interest. $196 million for the quarter. People are trading their asses off and using leverage to do it. Wait a minute. They made$196 million in 90 days on margin interest? Holy shit. I mean, this is a, stock aside, this is a good business. They are printing money. They're loan sharking their users on margin. They're giving people what they want.

46:45I love this chart. I love this chart. I love this chart. This is showing... Okay, so on the one hand, yes, there was a not so small percentage of the user base that is having a good time, that is speculating. But this chart is showing the average cumulative net deposits, which has grown over time across their funded customer cohorts and recent cohorts. So the light yellow, okay, the 2021 cohort, you see that over time and how it's growing. But look more recently, look at the top line, the people that are putting money in today. These are legitimate deposits. Like people are growing up, they're aging, and I love it.

47:25I think this is a cool chart. It's funny because this was one of the best performing stocks in the S &P last year, or maybe the best. And I guess I just didn't look at that and think that it was so heavily reliant on Bitcoin. And, you know, last year was like the first full year of Trump 2.0. And he's like the Bitcoin president. And like in the end, like Bitcoin didn't finish the year very well. It peaked in October. But like Robinhood held on. And then this year, I guess when Bitcoin got into the 80 ,000-ish range, that was it. They just pulled the stool out from under the stock. Well, guess what?

48:10Q1 numbers for crypto, for the Robin reports, I'm guessing are going to be an absolute disaster. Unless, yeah, people aren't going to trade more crypto as it falls. Sentiment is DED. All right, here's another good chart. They continue to gain market share over time. Look at the equities. It was 45 basis points of all trading in 2022. It's up to 1.1%, which is a remarkable number when you consider like how deep the market is options market share they've got 7.5 margin market share crypto i mean the business is the business they're they're winning they're they're doing phenomenal work the street doesn't like it for reasons that are obvious right now but here's one other negative point in the report that i saw next chart monthly active users decreased by 1.9 million.

48:59Yeah, that was surprising. And this is for Q4? Yeah. So that's not great. That's not great. And worse, or maybe just as bad, annualized revenue per employee was down 2 % year over year. So they've got some things to figure out, some things to work through, but these are growing pains. Not a short-term call in the stock because the street doesn't like it right now. The business, this is a very good business. they're doing a good job so somebody who is bearish on robin hood or pessimistic on their model would say um people are losing too much money in bear markets relative to what other brokerage customers lose and they're burning by by enabling the type of trading that we talk about a lot they could be burning the long-term value of these customers because people blow up and go away in a way that they don't do on necessarily on legacy platforms like fidelity i think it's a i think it's a reasonable point i don't know if it's true it might not be true but it's a reasonable concern of course it is of course it is i'm not sweeping under the rug out of hand um i just think that that that is i'm making this up a three percent of their users i have no idea i don't think like all the users showed me them but you just showed me the margin number that can't be three percent of the users generating 200 million dollars in margin fees it's not possible but you're assuming that everybody who's using margin is blowing up yeah and they're gonna go and they're gonna go away you forget I was a retail broker for 12 uh 11 years a pretty good assumption um taking care of business loco in the chat says prediction markets cannibalizing their own customers so I had this thought um I wouldn't exactly phrase it as cannibalizing their own customers, but like, you know, they're making this big splashy launch into prediction markets.

50:50We can't possibly think that that's going to be a winning adoption for most of the people who go there. Now, I know the trades are small and probably don't ruin people's lives. So I'm not worried about that. But to some extent, if you show somebody a game like that, they don't necessarily have more money to play it. They just play less of a different game. And in fact, some of the crypto people are talking about how prediction markets have given traditional crypto players a new, more exciting game to play, and that that could be behind the sell-off in Bitcoin at ETH, Sol. Again, I can't prove or disprove it.

51:30I'm just telling you what people are saying. Is it possible that there is cannibalization because you just put too many shiny things in front of the same baby. Perhaps. Okay. I mean, it's a thing that people, many people are saying this. I'm just reporting what I hear. I'm talking to people all over town. Okay. Anything else? What did Mizuho say? I'm going to give you, I mean, not much. Dan Dolev, friend of the show, quick perspective. Prediction markets were strong, but overall mixed quarter. And he points out average revenue per user$191 versus the estimated$200. That's a big miss. ARPU is the big number for these stocks.

52:15Yeah, that's a big miss. Like in the end. All right, let's keep going. Okay, we could blow through this. I just, I don't know. I thought this was interesting to take a look at. Remember the DGEN DAO from 2021? Who could forget? These names have, this is, you know what? You know what this is? This is that JP Morgan report that we love. titled The Agony and the Ecstasy of Stock Picking. I never forgot the stat. It was seared into my brain why stock picking is so hard. 40 % of all companies in the Russell 3000 had a catastrophic decline from which they never recovered, four out of 10. And they defined that as a 70 % decline from which no material rebound has ever occurred.

53:01And that's exactly what this chart is showing. Show up to 2021. So we're looking at GameStop, AMC, Moderna, Teladoc, DocuSign, Zoom, Peloton, Shop, Roku, and Block, formerly known as, or Squirt. Oh, God. So look at these names. These names, this is exactly what that report is highlighting. Dude, imagine somebody like Rip Van Winkle, this portfolio in 21 and just like stopped logging in and forgot it. You check back and it's like, wait, I held these stocks for six years i'm down 80 percent correct 80 so the 2026 version of the our dj down which we spoke about next chart please we first spoke about this in december 2024 i still love that we created this we haven't done a lot with it but it's are any of these stocks delisted since we created this dj down i i don't know i couldn't all right for the for the listener what are some of the tickers here michael um archer amc apple well that that one coinbase carvana what's oh djt giraffe king uh this real stocks in here roblox palantir nvidia these are just stocks that the dgens it's not that the the stocks necessarily are dgen stocks like the like the companies Most of them are.

54:21This is what the DGENs like to trade. And there's been new ones since then. Rigatoni's down 69%. I mean. What a disaster. So, all right. Let's keep moving. Let's say something uplifting. Spotify, nice. I don't even know if it held throughout the day, but the initial reaction to Spotify's earnings was very positive. and I sort of, I look at Netflix, which I have a tiny amount in still after having sold it. I sort of think like one day Netflix is going to do this on a quarterly report. It still can't bounce. Give me the Spotify chart one more time, guys. Like, look, this is a stock that's been basically in free fall for the last six months.

55:07It peaked end of last June. It was 800. It hit 400. So it bounced today to 476. Nobody's throwing confetti. What do you think the story is here? Do you think that it's like a YouTube story? Why is Spotify getting pulled? Because the business is on fire. Yeah, but YouTube is a three-way fight now for podcast talent. And Netflix is spending money and pulling shows off of YouTube. They are showing some of the shows that Netflix has brought on. continue to show video on Spotify, but it's just like, it's a fight now. It used to, so podcasts were an audio, audio medium. It was basically yet Apple and Spotify, and then a bunch of also rants that have now disappeared, but all the podcasts are doing video now.

56:02And as a result, it's not just app Apple podcasts and Spotify. It's a much deeper field of, and now shows are getting bought and almost like a cable networks, you know, like, like, like if you think about Netflix as like building sort of an HBO of very high, um, uh, very highly rated shows and just pulling them out of circulation one by one. Um, and we've already seen Spotify go through these phases where they've spent a ton of money on content and on shows. And we're not even sure that was even good for them. Yeah. But the business, you're not seeing it in the numbers. Like the business is humming.

56:45The business is fine. I just think, I think Wall Street understands that in the end, people only have two ears and two eyes, and they really can only pay attention to one maximum, two things at once. So they might have Netflix on screen and in their hands is Twitter. or they might have a football game on Amazon Prime, you know, on the TV, and then on the phone in their hand is their email. But like people can't have three things going at once. And you just reach a point where there are too many apps, too many shows, too many options, too much user-generated content, too many social networks. And it's just like nothing can break through anymore.

57:30You're absolutely right. You've splintered this into micro audiences. You're absolutely right. And also, what would you say, what will you say if Spotify ever makes a new 52-week high? Oh, like what are the chances of that? No, I'm just saying like the story that you're narrating today is accurate. Yeah. Okay. I'm not saying it's permanent. But like the stock could start working again. I don't know what would cause it to. Spotify is one of the last things that I could personally cancel. It is so important in my life, and I spend so much time listening to podcasts and music, two of my favorite things in the world.

58:12Spotify is like one of the final things that I would cancel. And I think a lot of people are like me, and I think the stock does not get enough credit for that. Let me give you some of the superlatives from the quarter. Largest ever wrapped campaign. Over 300 million users engaged. and they did a ton of stuff, like wrapped, like celebrating what you listen to this year around Christmas. Q4 25 revenue grew 13 % year over year. Premium revenue was 14 % growth. Advertising revenue was up 4%. People don't even think about this as an advertising business. Gross margin expanded to 33.1%, up 83 basis points year over year.

58:56Full year 25 revenue up 13%. gross profit up 20 operating income up 50 and then the guidance they just gave us q1 guidance 759 million maus which would be up 8 million sequentially and 293 million premium subs how many companies on earth have 293 million people paying them for anything probably 10 or less companies daniel said incredibly important platform so this was Daniel X last conference call as a CEO. He said they've got three quarters of a billion listeners. Throw this chart on. I had Claude make this. They're so dominant and they're getting no credit for it. Now, nobody can buy this thing.

59:46It's$100 billion market cap. It's$100 billion market cap. It's a 60 times earnings. It would not be accretive to any buyer. No one's going to do it and it's european which means you have to jump through all their circus uh uh you know you have to jump through the whole three-ring circus with the eu and denmark or wherever this thing is for uh sweden it's like it's an impossible acquisition but it's interesting to watch people fight over warner brothers and now you got this thing out there with 300 million paying premium subs um but it's no one can buy it. Maybe that's part of the bull case. It's a monster business.

1:00:26They were asked about AI, of course, and Claude, the new co-CEO, said, an engineer at Spotify in their morning commute from Slack on their cell phone can tell Claude to fix a bug or add a new feature to the iOS app. Once Claude finishes the work, the engineer then gets a new version of the app, pushed to them on Slack on their phone so that they can merge it to production all before they even arrive at the office they're calling that hunk whatever um some of the stuff that we're gonna see it's amazing like the jensen's we get to work 24 hours a day now it's amazing amazing so cool all right last uh last topic before we get to make the case in mystery chart um we have to talk about the travel stocks uh today and yes i get the yesterday and today give me marriott

1:01:16so we've i've made the case for this on the show um congrats to people that listen to me this is one of the ones you don't have to curse me out about because it actually worked um this is what the consumer is doing and don't tell me that this is all the top 10 people this is marriott okay it's not all jw there's some courtyard marriott's in there and god knows what else and they have nothing negative to say on the consumer. Or if they say it's K-shaped, well, more people are in the right part of the K than the wrong part of the K. Can I show you Hilton too? Yes. Same thing. I mean, so I pitched this on, this is the best stock in the market.

1:02:01A couple of weeks ago, we did this on TV. So this is like, this is what the consumer is doing. And again, Hilton is not the Amman. Like Hilton is everybody. All right. So earlier we said it's a market about to top, right? You lost the leadership in A's. Can the market work without the MAG-7? We didn't mention something so important. The economy is fine. These names that you're talking about, the consumer that powers the economy, Hilton's not at an all-time high because the consumer is not spending money. You have a Fed chairman that is going to probably come in here at lower rates. You've got a combination of monetary policy.

1:02:37Inflation is fine. The macro backdrop, you've got these companies spending gigabillions of dollars. It's hard to see the market just falling out of bed. Now, what's so great about Hilton and Marriott is that it's like Costco without all the inventory in the stores. They don't own any of these properties. I think Marriott owns one hotel and Hilton owns 10 or something like that. People think they own the buildings. Nope. They are a point. No, it's a loyalty points business. That's it. It's the whole thing. They're marketing and loyalty points, and then they get paid to manage the hotels. So it's sort of halo because a Marriott hotel is a physical thing, but it's sort of not halo because they're really a marketing business and the loyalty points makes the whole thing.

1:03:28That's the whole reason why a hotel developer approaches Marriott and says, we want to license Marriott. We want to have you manage the hotel so that you have this guaranteed influx of people staying there because they're part of Bonvoy and all these points programs. And Hilton is the same way. And people think that these are real estate or these are like building owners. And it's the opposite. It's the brands and driving people to the properties. This one, I'm not sure about this. Give me Expedia. They're going to report this week. this chart you'll notice does not look at all like Marriott and Hilton just has been absolutely hammered year to date.

1:04:13I think this is part of the AI disruption story. Here are the expectations. Revenue up 7.1 % year over year and earnings up 41 % year over year. If they deliver that and the stock doesn't react to the upside i don't know what to do um but i think people are worried about expedia being easily disintermediated by a chat bot that finds you hotel rooms or a chat bot that books your flights for you like i so that's that this is a really interesting travel name because they are not benefiting in the same way the the halo hotel this is expedia is very much not halo I would just say that. So they're going to report, I think on Thursday.

1:04:58Okay. All right. I'm going to make the case for the only stock that I own individually in my personal account. It's a stock that I've made the case for before. Last time it was April, 2025. So it's not like I did this yesterday. And I'm making the case for IMAX again, because A, it's working. B, I don't think you missed it. The stock is not extended and it's a$2 billion market cap. It's still a modest - IMAX is Halo. IMAX is Halo. So I got an email today from Jennifer Horsley. Jennifer is the Senior VP of Investor Relations, and she won't respond to my emails. I'm trying to get Rich Gelfond to see you on the show.

1:05:33So if anybody knows Jennifer, please send her this video. All right, let's get right to it. You didn't ask me to do this? Please. All right. So this is what the email said. Dear IMAX Investment Community, IMAX momentum has carried into 2026 with strong January box office growth. The IMAX January box office of$80 million grew 16 % year over year, propelled by Avatar, Fire, and Ash, where IMAX has delivered 13 % of the total box office cumulative to date versus 11.3 % on Avatar Way of Water. As many have seen, recent Oscar nomination spotlight IMAX's strong partnership with leading filmmakers. Of note, five of the 10 best picture titles played in IMAX, including three standout releases where IMAX delivered 20 % or higher of the opening weekend domestic box office, including Sinners, One Battle After Another, and F1, the movie.

1:06:31Let me show you some charts. Look at this brand awareness. I don't know how this is quantified, but they've got it. They're comparing themselves with ESPN and Marvel and HBO Max and Spotify. The brand is super strong. And you think about who the audience is. This is a bit of a faceblower, Josh. Look at this diverse audience base. It's not just for fanboys. About half male, half female. If you look at the age, dude, young people are going to the theater. Look at this 25 to 34 demographic. Chart off, please. I don't know why this angel just walked into my office, but look at this cutie patootie oh my god what's up are you going to take him to an imax movie this year we're seeing goat on friday night okay um let's keep it moving 2020 2025 so this is from investor day and this is in december was on track for the best year in imax history 33 imax box office up yeah the system i mean it's all it's all working and then 2026 it's the same thing leveling up for another record year.

1:07:33Their guidance is to all-time highs on the system installations, the box office, and the stock is working and it has been working. And it's a volatile stock, right? It's a small market cap, but there's a special story here that's happening. And I think this is going to continue to work. Well, they're going to have possibly the biggest, one of the biggest events in the decade for cinema this summer when the odyssey debuts is it a summer movie or christmas movie i don't even know uh it's it's i believe it's summer when they announced ticket sales a year in advance which is never everybody was like what are you doing and guess what they sold that in two was a two hour like i can't even i tried to get tickets you can't get them and some of these imax screens are nothing special like they're larger than the traditional format, but they were like retrofitted into a traditional multiplex.

1:08:27The real IMAX, the 70 millimeter, there's only like six of them on the continent of North America. Like there, I happen to have gone to one for one battle after another in Fort Lauderdale. They have one in a science museum, the 70 millimeter IMAX. And, um, but they're rare. There's one in Manhattan at Lincoln square. Um, there is not like a hundred of them. Can you imagine if there was? And also, so China's going nuts. They're doing a ton of business there. And Dune 3 is going to be another mega, mega, mega IMAX hit. And that's this summer too, right? Or this year? They're doing 20 % of the total global box office in IMAXs for a lot of these names.

1:09:07It's an event that people are coming out. Yeah, no, it's a great stock. And I think if they weren't based in Toronto, if this was like a New York or an LA-based company and had more visibility with US investors, I think the stock would be materially higher. I don't know what you do about that. That's just the reality. I'm waiting. Yeah. All right, great pick. I love it. Let me do the mystery chart and then we'll get out of here. this is an industry group within the financial sector so it's a sub industry group it's an it's i got you how do i put this it's not in it's not an industry group it's a sub industry group it's like even even smaller carve out of an industry group but there's a lot of stocks in it there's at least 25 stocks in it insurance no capital markets i'll give you two more what is it what's the next guess capital markets close but no cigar okay um i don't know what is it okay it is within capital markets but i told you it's a sub industry group it's the broker dealer index etf iai this is the u.s broker dealers and securities exchanges etf and this is this is so robin hood's in here um this is about to get really interesting i think because now the question becomes, all right, we know a lot of these companies in here are reliant on crypto these days.

1:10:39We know a lot of these companies in here are reliant on not getting disrupted by AI. But now we see like what happened with Schwab and Raymond James today. And like we like starting to get the first inklings that maybe the brokerage business can be disrupted by new AI tools and possibly new AI driven platforms for trading. and then there's the whole prediction market angle. Some of the companies in this index, I'm gonna show you them in a second, benefit from increased volatility. So give me that chart because this is not just broker-dealers, this is broker-dealers and exchanges. So Goldman Sachs, number one, waiting.

1:11:19It's 18%. Morgan Stanley's 14. Put those aside. Schwab is three. CME, Intercontinental. Moody's is in here. MSCI, S &P Global. So these have all been annihilated. NASDAQ, Interactive Brokers, LPL Financial, Raymond James, CBOE, Robinhood, Coinbase. Would you agree with me? There's fireworks in this group or potential fireworks in this group coming up in the next couple of months. What do you think? This is really interesting because we had a chart. I can't remember who made this chart. it might have been S &P actually, ironically enough, that showed like dispersion within sectors. And basically there's no point in picking individual energy names because they all move the same, like they're all the same trade.

1:12:08Not this. That basket, the dispersion is a shotgun. There are serious winners and losers. It's a really interesting basket. Yeah, we're going to keep an eye on that. Maybe we'll pick that up and do a segment on it in a couple of weeks. All right, guys, I know we ran late. Thanks for hanging with us. I want to say a special thank you to everybody in the live chat. Those of you listening to us on Spotify, on Apple, thank you so much. We appreciate it. Please leave a rating and review. Tomorrow is Wednesday, which means an all new animal spirits with Michael and Ben. First thing in the morning when you arise, we'll have an Ask the Compound this week, and we will have a compound and friends at the end of this week.

1:12:48Keep it locked. We'll see you soon. Thanks again.

1:13:21Thank you. future results. Investing involves risk and possible loss of principal capital. No advice may be rendered by Ritholtz Wealth Management unless a client service agreement is in place.