Jim Cramer Absolutely UNLOADS On Stage, Make Popcorn Now

20:12Downtown Josh Brown:I know. At least from my perspective. Well, I think that you take a guy like Semblis who was here. Yeah. Like Semblis is I don't know who is that Michael Semblis fans in the audience. Yes. Legend. Like, you know, like Semblis like I first meet Semblis and I say, damn, this guy's like the smartest guy ever. And then he turns out to be the smartest guy ever. He might be. And I'm incredibly intimidated by him. But I realize wait a second he likes to fish. I like to fish. We go fishing. And the next thing I know, it's like, you know, he's a regular guy. He's worried that people don't like his stuff.

20:44That's what he's worried about.

20:45Downtown Josh Brown:Right. He said, did you like that? I said, yeah. He said, no, no, tell me. Did you really like it? The head of research at J.P. Morgan is worried. No one's reading what he... He is. He's like, hey, what do they... Like, the piece will come out, like, at 7.59 on Monday. And he'll say, what do you think? And I'm like... I said, I haven't had a chance to read it yet. He said, are you going to read it before you go on? Of course I'm going to read it. Are you going to mention it? Maybe I'll mention it. I don't know if I like it. If I like it, I'll mention it. If I don't like it, oh, no, even if you don't like it, can you mention it?

21:08I said, Michael, relax. You're like a brilliant guy. No. He's worried that I won't like it.

21:14Downtown Josh Brown:So I think that's universal. I want to go to the dot-com era because of all the comparisons that are being made from then to today. Sure. I started reading you. This is a true story. I started reading you in 1997. Jesus, that would have been my... So you're the... Six months in. You're doing thestreet.com. You're also doing a column for New York Magazine. And my first job at a brokerage firm in Garden City, Long Island, a firm called Lou Lieberbaum. It's a true story. Before I had my Series 7, I can't talk on the phone to clients. I can cold call. That's it. But my other job is take this one computer in the office.

21:51Downtown Josh Brown:It's in the computer room. This is true. Print out Jim Cramer's column in the morning. It was you, maybe Herb Greenberg. Yeah, sure. I forget who. It was the third guy. Adam Wyshynski we had. Okay. So print these columns out and make sure all the brokers get a copy on their desk. And I did that for six months, every single day. And they ate it up. They would grab it out of my hand as I'm walking through the aisle. Yes. Dynamite. 100%. And so I remember that era is the first time I started reading your stuff. I think it's the first time you're writing. And I was curious if you think the comparisons between that era and now are apropos or if they're different, if these periods are different, how are they different?

22:39Well, I think that they're very different. And one of the reasons I think they're very different until OpenAI, which is something we can talk about, is that these companies are remarkable. They're like nation state companies. They're tremendous balance sheets led by really great people. whereas like when you were back in those days you'll see a guy from infospace and i'll come in to see and i'll say hey listen uh street.com kind of struggling i'm kind of struggling but i've said that i'm going to be the first trillion dollar company so what i could do is here's 10 million dollars and he writes he has a check and you i'll give it to you and then what you do is you buy 10 million dollars with the ads in mind it's called a lazy susan deal and we all work out I said, that sounds illegal.

23:19And he goes, well, no, you understand. No one's in the room. And I said, well, that doesn't make it less.

23:26Downtown Josh Brown:So that's double click and like all those early internet advertising business models. And that's the way it was back then. It was not Wild West so much as like the authorities are stupid. We can do what we want. There's Jack Grubman. I met Jack Grubman through my ex-wife when he was just beginning at Payne Weber. And he was doing stuff I couldn't believe to build up his name. It was all insider trading stuff. But it was not illegal. I mean, it's like it's hard to describe what illegal and illegal meant. But put it this way. The companies are so well capitalized and are involved now, again, with the exception of OpenAI.

24:01I want to talk about that. But the businesses are real. And by that point, almost all those businesses were about lighting fiber and having product to be sold over the fiber. And what we didn't realize is kind of like Walmart. Walmart destroyed all retail. Amazon destroyed all of online retail. And you just didn't think that either could happen. Look, if you're Target right now and the new guy comes in, believe me, he's thinking about whether his company can make it. Kohl's, can they make it? They probably can't make it because Walmart's going to wipe everybody out except for Costco. What it was like then was we had all these different retailers, different companies, and we somehow thought they were all going to work.

24:38And we had all these companies that were light and fiber. And we somehow thought that they were going to work. And I mentioned Jack Grubman because Jack Grubman was WorldCom. He was the banker behind World. He was the banker behind all these. And you always had this next deal, next deal, next deal. And it was always the same, which is that you could jam. You could get the E-Trade guys, the retail people to pay up. You could then offer them stock. You go short and then you hold it until it goes to two. It was all crooked.

25:01Downtown Josh Brown:It was crooked. You had a series of columns back then, probably 98 or 99. You had these two fictional characters who you pretended, Buzz and Batch. So Buzz and Batch were two guys who were, I guess, institutional sales traders. And they would call you up and you would write these dialogues that never took place but probably took place. Right? An amalgamation of all the people calling you with stock ideas. Well, yeah. I'm surprised you've been a long time ago. I go deep. Well, that's – So Buzz and Batch today would be trading Ocklo and they would be involved in all these stuff. Yeah, so this is the problem.

25:40I mean, look, and I know, yesterday I get up, and I get up real early, and I'd say, son of a bitch, there's someone from the administration, has told someone that you got to, that they're going to put$10 million in each of the big four quads of companies. 10 million, that would make a difference, right? These are all like$10 billion companies and$20 billion companies. And I've been trying to tell people, listen, trim, trim, trim. I don't want you to blow it out. I just don't want you to lose it all. Trim. I never say, you know, get out now. I did that once October 8th, and that's, you know, 1998 in the book.

26:101206. And what happened, it's really interesting, was that I said, oh shit, everyone's going to hate me because I said, be trimming the Quantums and suddenly they're going to take the Quantums up again. Now, I've met with two of the four Quantums. The other two don't want to come on the show. And not that, it doesn't mean anything. D-Wave. Yeah.

26:28Downtown Josh Brown:Let's tell the people what the stock's talking about. IONQ. What's a Rigatoni? We like that one. Yeah, like someone sold $2.5 million worth of Rigatoni last week. And I'm like, look at it. And it's like, you know, the stock was like a penny stock a year ago. Michael said it's Ziti now. Carbone, they work for Carbone. But you look at this stuff and you just say, okay, I'm not going to get people out, but I got to get people to take some off. So you look at Oclo, okay? And that's because Oclo, did you see the guy who said, he asked the analyst, is it Oclo or Oclo, the analyst? And the analyst said, doesn't matter.

27:03That's very 90 years. That's very 99.

27:05Downtown Josh Brown:It goes up. It doesn't matter what it's called. Yeah, it goes up. So Buzz and Batch would be in the quantum stocks. They would be doing the Oclo. They'd be doing the IONQs. And they would be doing the Bloom Energy, which has never made any money but suddenly does have a real product. And you go to like a Michael Intrader, Core Weave, who's actually a Jersey guy, and he's really easy to talk to. And you say, how about the Bloom? And he goes, I don't know. I mean, it doesn't scale. But that doesn't matter. It doesn't scale. It's got a couple of things that are making so a couple of data centers have backup power.

27:35But then what happens is then you have Tesla. And Tesla makes you look like an idiot. Because Tesla is like, you know, what a guy will say. Anyone can say, hey, Jim, you know, you knocked that Oculus. That's the next Tesla. Really hard to refute the next Tesla.

27:50Downtown Josh Brown:Tesla crushed some of the smartest people I've ever met in this business. Sure did. It steamrolled people that I would say are probably geniuses. Yeah, but there's one Elon. It was Elon. It wasn't. It was. That's it. It's Elon. But, you know, take – look, the other day, Scotty was my co-host, and Tesla was down 30. And I said, look, we were all – he was talking about car sales. Now, if you read the conference call, he has a pretty good conference call. There wasn't anything about cars. It was all about robots. It was all about self-drive. It was all about battery storage to be able to make it so that the terawatt that's produced in the country goes and you don't need to build any new places, new power plants.

28:31And it was really fabulous. So I said to Scott, I'll take the other side of the trade. He goes, why? I said, because he's changed the narrative. The narrative's not about cars anymore. Cars are passe with him. He said, yeah, but this car.

28:43Downtown Josh Brown:He's talking about robot surgery on the conference call this week. I don't think anybody even asked a question about cars. No, it wasn't. And I heard this. Rick Smith, who's the son of the late Fred Smith, who was the greatest guy, started FedEx. He was saying, look, the big problem. This was when I was at Dreamforce last week. He said the big problem with the robots is the hand because it can only handle – it only knows a certain size box. And then it goes along and it hits the box. It doesn't know what it's doing. And there it is a week later. Elon Musk says, you know what? I'm developing the hand.

29:16The hand is the hardest thing. But we're going to work out the hand. And you realize he's solving the real-world question of AI and robots. And we're all sitting here thinking about how are the sales in Germany. Give me a break.

29:27Downtown Josh Brown:Right. How many cars did he sell? How many cars did he sell in Germany? Jim, one of the, so I think we all understand the big differences between those companies in the late 90s and these companies, the amount of money these companies are able to produce. The moats, our friend Kai Wu wrote a paper about the CapEx spending and the hyperscalers. These companies are doing the Mag7, 22 % return on invested capital versus 6 % for the S &P 493. So we all understand that these are not fly-by. They're not going anywhere. The difference is the size of these companies. NVIDIA and Apple are both$4 trillion.

30:09Maybe NVIDIA is on its way to$10 trillion. Who knows? The size is a huge difference. Microsoft right behind. Okay, but does that part - What Jensen would tell you is, so what? Maybe my company should be worth$10 trillion. He urged me not to look at that. and he urged me not to look at it when it cost a trillion.

30:28Downtown Josh Brown:Don't look at the market cap. Yeah, he said you can't. It just doesn't help. Well, how could you not look? Okay, so I mean, I agree with you. It's absolutely right. I mean, but this is what he's trying to say is don't limit. What he's been saying is if you take a 20-year view, which is what he does, and you work backwards, it's entirely possible that he will develop things that no one's ever thought about, and it might be worth far more than you think. Remember, Elon uses 50 trillion. But they better because - Well, they better. Absolutely. He'll tell you they better or else his company - He runs scared.

31:00Because you know - Jensen runs very scared. What happened to Cisco and all of the other companies, they did it. All of those companies, they did 10x their sales from 1999 to 2010. But the stocks fell 85 % because - They sure did. Investors were way ahead of expectations. So whatever Jensen is saying to you, they better do all of that to justify these valuations. Okay. So here's what Jensen would say if we were here. He'd say, you know what? We better do all of that or we're dead. See, he'd say just what you said, and that's why you'd like him. He's not going to come up with the, no, let me tell you this, that.

31:32He goes, no, you're dead right. I mean, if we don't beat Lisa Su and AMD and we don't stay one ahead, we're dead. Because he runs more scared than anybody I've seen. And it's really impressive that he runs scared because I think we'd all like that. Look, are these companies – here's the way that Sarah Fryer, the CFO of OpenAI, I really like her because she helped me when I thought that Square was going to go bust. She didn't do so well at the local thing, the newspaper stuff. But she was a good partner at Goldman. And she's saying, look, if we can take over every vertical, if we can take over the Facebook vertical, the meta vertical, and if we can take over the Microsoft vertical and we can take over what they're doing at NVIDIA, whatever, then we win.

32:16But we have to win in every vertical. So you listen to that and you're Zuckerberg and you say, listen, I got to spend like hell. I cannot have open AI come in. I have to own my vertical. And that's the fight out there. That's what people are saying is like open AI is going to destroy us unless we up our game.

32:34Downtown Josh Brown:It's an existential spend. 100%. They're all saying that. Same thing. But the verticals are really great. Look at Zuckerberg. He's really good. So let's do open AI while we're on the topic. This is the strangest thing about the modern market. OpenAI is like this character that exists off screen it's not public it's the most important character in the movie so we're all watching a movie and the main character is Kaiser Soce yes it is everything Kaiser Soce does behind the scenes that then becomes news we don't see the resulting share price move because OpenAI doesn't trade we can only see that interpreted through the share prices of all of the other characters in the movie.

33:20Downtown Josh Brown:It's a phenomenally fascinating thing. And the main character has not yet appeared. Is this the first trillion-dollar market cap IPO? So you told me don't – Sarah said, please don't use the Trill. He said, don't go – she said, we don't think it's going to be worth a$7. I feel like this show is not in Sarah's heavy rotation. No, no. I'm just saying that I wanted to use Trill. I'll tell you – let me tell you why it's so hard. It's$500 billion. and I'm not saying anything crazy. Let me tell you why it's so hard. So I got Mark Casper on. He's a real smart guy. He runs Thermo Fisher. And I've had Mark for many, many years.

33:54I've known him for a long time. And I say to him, why aren't companies trying to really solve cancer with AI? And he goes, okay, the drug companies, they don't believe us. They don't think that we're important. There's only one guy who took our call, Sam. I said, Sam? He goes, Sam's the only guy who's interested. He knows that we working together can be able to figure out gene sequencing that's going to be able to take on ALS, going to take on Parkinson's, going to take on all the diseases that these drug companies are afraid they're going to lose billions. They're going to lose billions. And he is a great guy.

34:30And I said, well, I don't know. I don't know enough about him other than the fact he's really good at taking down money. He goes, no, Sam takes your call. And he goes, what are the hardest diseases to cure? I want to go after those. And he said, you should respect Sam for that because the drug companies only want to go after the easy ones. Because these other ones, ALS, cost too much money. And so there you got, again, he's off on the sidelines, but he wants to solve that disease. And when you go and you talk to someone in cars, he's trying to figure out, is there a car that could develop? One of the things that Jobs wanted to do before he died, a car that can run on water because that would solve the internal combustion problem.

35:08That would be something that Sam wants to go after. So I don't know him personally. I met him when I shook his hand. His partner, Greg, has been on the show a couple of times. But he's trying to do big things.

35:18Downtown Josh Brown:Yeah, well, clearly. And you've got to hand it to him. He's trying to be. But do I like the fact that they're borrowing money? Look, Safra Cats is a really good business person. And when she told me what she was going to do. CEO of Oracle. When she told me she was going to do this, I said, why are you getting? You can't do that, Safra. You can't borrow that kind of money to be able to build what you're saying. She goes, we have no choice. We have to. Our business is growing 2%, 3%. This could be the greatest business ever. Larry loves it. Larry's the richest man in the world. Larry Ellison, his son, has got the Paramount thing.

35:47And what's interesting is that she's serious. She's a serious person. I have Hawk Tan on last week. Now, Hawk Tan is at Broadcom, which is by a trillion dollar company. He's ruthless, Hawk. I happen to love Hawk, but he's ruthless. And everyone knows. And I said, Hawk, are you sure that this thing's going to work? And he goes, Jim, it is going to work.

36:06Downtown Josh Brown:What thing? The data centers? Oh, the OpenAI. OpenAI. Because OpenAI is borrowing far more money than it should. And I don't know. They have to win something. Google is deathly afraid of OpenAI. Jim, are you worried about the credit part of this? Because obviously that is the biggest part. You have to be. Until OpenAI came along, I was thinking this is a really responsible group of people who are figuring out how to keep their turf and continuing to reinvent. Then OpenAI comes along and they have a dream. And they're back with the Microsoft. And they get Oracle to do the data centers. And next thing you know, it's gospel.

36:44And remember, the dream starts. I mean, I talk about Jensen. Like, Jensen's – remember, Jensen brought them the first platform. That's hard to keep track. And that's what ChatGPT was based on, was what Jensen brought it over. And so he – Sam, like I fucking know Sam. He's in everybody's lips, and yet he is not there.

37:09Downtown Josh Brown:He's not there. Yeah, he's not there. He's not doing quarterly conference calls. No, he's not. He doesn't have to. No, he doesn't. You know what? If you're over a sort of market cap, I feel like you need to do public market earnings calls. Well, I guess, look, they do it. It's a tough question because there are people who actually trade the stock all the time. The government doesn't seem to care. There's people who buy it and sell it. The government is going toward having two conference calls a year instead of four. How that helps people, I don't know. As a regular investor, you want as much information as possible.

37:39But that's what this new Justice Police SEC is going to do.

37:41Downtown Josh Brown:What we've heard from people on that topic is that it'll actually increase transparency because a lot of times companies don't talk as a result of a quiet period surrounding earnings. If earnings were only twice a year, then theoretically they might be able to speak more frequently, not less. Okay, here's what I hear about it, which is that when they have news, they should say it. That should be the rule. News, they should say it. And I would like that because I think a lot of them feel like I can't give the news until the quarter. So this opens that up theoretically. Right, and then some people get it and others don't.

38:14We just want it so that everybody gets it. Jim, so the companies are huge. We've never seen this before. The valuations are not stupid. They're just not. These companies. That's why I f***ed up on the alphabet, okay? Because the goddamn Justice Department guy is in my face telling me. I pull away some of my lawyer. He said, listen, we're going to destroy Google, okay? We're going to destroy Google. You think Google's so powerful? Let me tell you something. We're going to split it up, and we're not going to let them have any money. You think it's going to be like Exxon when there's Standard Oil, and everybody did well.

38:41We're going to wipe it out. So I went and sold it for the club, okay? And I listened to the guy. They got this judge that called Monopolis. Then the judge just immediately goes back on everything. And I looked at it, and I said, I sold Google at 16 times earnings. What an idiot. I mean, I'm an idiot. 16 times earnings. I sold it through American Electric Powers multiple. I'm an idiot. So you are the face of the American investor. Would there be a point in time at which - Should I get eyes lifted?

39:09Downtown Josh Brown:I think you look fab. I think you look fantastic. What do you guys think? Let's go. Let's hear it for Jim. Jim, is there a point out there on the horizon to which you would say, time out. This is silly season. Forget about Akla and the I-Rent. That's a distraction. but where the integrity of the capital market system is under, not a, so under it's where, all right, time out, everybody, no more new money. What would have to happen for you to get there? Okay. Well, look in March, in the third week of March of 2000, I very publicly wrote a piece in real money and in the street, which says I'm getting out.

39:49It's too silly. It's too stupid. I'm going to go into bonds. I've never bought bonds other than for trade for treasuries. And I'm going to go short most of the NASDAQ. And I did it. And everyone just thought it was a stunt. But I did. I just, you know, when I had a good year, I sold everything. And I wrote from the short side for the – mostly for the rest of the year because it was phony. And I had seen it to be too phony. But wait, but it had been phony for years. So what was – Okay, that's a really good point. I waited until it was phony, but I wanted to make money. And someone, a very nice woman came.

40:30Downtown Josh Brown:Well, no, I remember very distinctly when MicroStrategy blew up the first time, and it was an accounting fraud, and you said, this is now going to be open season on every stock trading at 500 times eyeballs. No one's going to believe any of these guys again. I read what he wrote and it ended up being that way. But I got lucky because I had the streets. So I knew how phony it was. And I saw the streets numbers go down really big. And I was very public about it. I said, listen, the numbers are bad. All the IPOs are phony. Everyone's trying to do a secondary. Everyone's trying to get out. Count me out.

41:06There isn't a soul I know that doesn't want to sell. They're begging Morgan Stanley to put together a project so they could get out of their stock in a synthetic way. Now, if I felt that all these companies, let's say I felt that there were five open AIs, that there were five different companies that could pull this off. That would be hard for me because I struggle with open AIs. I mean, literally, I pull up with these people when I was at this, and that's one of the reasons why I was so glad to go to Dreamforce. All I asked everybody the same thing was, am I nuts? A, open AI seems crazy. Am I nuts?

41:37And I didn't meet anyone who felt that open AI was a joke. I just met people who said it can work because Larry Ellison is serious and Sam is serious. And I said, but what happens if they come up with a source of power that makes it so all this spend on power is not needed? What happens if it turns out that D-Wave quantum is faster and everything they're doing, all the fast compute at NVIDIA is not fast enough? And remember when Jensen said, look, I didn't believe in quantum. Then he came back and he said, well, look, quantum is very close. And these guys all say the same thing. We'll be ready when that happens, and they won't be when it happens.

42:14So I think you have to – look, I hope to live long enough to see that it makes it. But I know that – look, I've got to tell you that if I told you that I'm not worried about it, after my wife – I come back and tell my wife, I said, look, I've got to tell you something. I'm afraid of screwing up here on this open AI. And I describe it, and she says, what does Mark say? She says, Mark's okay with it. And she says, well, what does Jensen say? chances are okay with it. Everybody's okay with it. So maybe you have to make your peace with it until you can figure out something. But there are a bunch. I mean, there's what Elon's doing.

42:50There's Anthropic. Like, it's not just them.

42:53Downtown Josh Brown:Well, I actually want to ask you about that. I believe in Elon, but I mean, I really do. I think he's very surreal. So you and I invested through the first dot-com wave. We're left with zero of those companies with the exception of Amazon. But none of the search players. so to me the LLMs remind me of search and there are none left Google came public in 04 after there were 10 of them at one point that's the LLM thing it doesn't feel like there are going to be 10 it feels like there are going to be 2 I don't know for sure it's ChatGPT probably and perplexity or ChatGPT and Claude well you gotta look at this lawsuit between the New York Times and OpenAI because New York Times isn't, you know, OpenAI is constantly cribbing the Times, but they have two million instances of plagiarism, two million instances in a lawsuit.

43:45Downtown Josh Brown:Two million. So I met with the lawyers in this thing, and I said, wait a second, are you telling me that they won't pay you because you're going to win this lawsuit, and then everybody who runs these sites is going to have to pay every single site? That might cost more than energy. Well, the fact is that they get a free ride, and they're not going to get a free ride, and a lot of these sites won't be able to afford it. And that lawsuit, which I think the Times wins, is going to make it so all these companies have to start. They have to train. Well, Reddit sued Perplexity on the same grounds. They said, you're training your LLM on our proprietary data.

44:20Downtown Josh Brown:And you owe us money. And Perplexity said, hey, you're fighting against the open internet. And Reddit's probably like, yeah, go f*** yourself. That's our data. Pay us. It's not open internet. And they used Cloudflare, Matthew Prince. That stock went from 70. to$200 because they perplexed to use them, and now everyone's going to have to fall in line. Everyone's going to have to pay. These LLMs can't survive a scenario where they have to actually pay for all the data they're being trained on. And that's what's like$2 ,000. So that's what makes me nervous. That's what's like$2 ,000. All right, the second part, you wrote, I've stolen this idea from you, I've given you credit, but you wrote in a moment like this, you wrote about being at the diner by the Holland Tunnel where the guy drops the eggs on the griddle and it's just too hot.

45:09Downtown Josh Brown:If you're not ready with the spatula the minute you drop it, the eggs are going to burn. Why are your eggs so perfect? He goes, nine seconds. Nine seconds. If I leave him on for 10 seconds, it'll burn till crisp. Is this market not a hot griddle, Holland Tunnel diner market environment? No, I don't think so. I think there's sections that are. At that point, everything was. I think there's lots of stuff. Okay. I mean, okay. Now, I know Procter & Gamble's not what this room might be about or maybe that i don't know but proctor opens up ford today and it's john moeller he's like the most boring man on earth but he's a nice guy he's a cfo he comes he sells toilet paper he sells toilet paper well he does that he got that wavy toilet paper first innovation in 40 years you know um but he he they told a good story and the stock's up five and i'm like thinking shit that doesn't work that doesn't work for me it's not going to fit my thesis my thesis is is that that group is safety last that's my big rap you know and then by the time the market opens, the stock's only up a buck, you know?

46:04And so that's working for me because every day you seek validation of your thesis, okay? So, I mean, it's not like I am saying to him, no, let me tell you, it's fine. Every minute you're seeking, if you're any good, if you're any good at this business and everybody wants to be good at picking stocks, you have to constantly validate your thesis. And if you see something that says that your thesis is wrong and you ignore it, you're jackass. So, I mean, Procter been a big today. I mean, And literally, I'm thinking this. I'm watching the guy in 704, and they're talking, of course, about the reds, the Cincinnati Reds, and the Bengals.

46:37I don't know, because the Cincinnati thing. And I'm listening. I'm saying, shit, this stock's going up too much. This is wrong. This is not my thesis. This is not my thesis. What am I going to say? When Carl talks to me, what am I going to say? Like, the proctor, it's got to come down. It's got to come down. It doesn't work. And it goes down. I go on 859. I'm like, hey, proctor, that was a little bit. That's nothing. You don't want to be a nut. So, I mean, you can never make it seem like you're, if you are secure in this business, you're just such a choker. I mean, you have got to be, I watch you on TV and it's such a, look, and I'm friends with everybody and Stephanie worked with me for years.

47:09But, you know, Josh will come out and he'll say, look, toast was toast. I didn't know, you know. And I'm like thinking, oh, there's another guy that's made a mistake in this business besides me. I know two people, him and me. And the ones who don't say it, they're like, are you kidding?

47:24Downtown Josh Brown:There was a guy, part of the original cast of Fast Money. We won't say his name. But if the stocks he picked on Monday didn't do well on Tuesday, he would call in sick to the show. I can't be on to that. Say his name. Say it. I won't do it. See that shit? And it bothers me so much. Jim, do you think the audience, I mean, I'm curious to hear your take on stocks. Do you think that the software stocks are a value or a trap? Let's talk about, are people too worried about AI disintermediating? Adobe and Salesforce. I've got to give a micro answer and a macro answer. The macro is the ServiceNow report this week, and I think it will be a really good quarter.

48:02People say, ah, shit, I should have done that when that's got AI. But there's a company called Encino. Not the town, but Encino, it's a spinoff of a bank called Live Oak. And Live Oak is an actual non-deposit bank. It's an internet bank, but it's based in Wilmington, North Carolina. So, you know, what do they know down there? Hey, this guy is a real smart guy who runs it. And what he did was develop software that made it so that you could do software as a service for a bank. And he did it in conjunction with Salesforce. And that company is now worth$3.2 billion and his bank is worth$1.5 billion.

48:41He just ripped out the Encino Salesforce product. And I said, this is in front of the Federal Reserve. It was a panel I ran. He said, I had some kid write the stuff that was better than what Salesforce has got. Using AI. Using AI. So I think that it is going to be existential.

48:59Downtown Josh Brown:Adobe, similar story. Adobe is really in trouble. What if anybody can make any graphic they want just by speaking it into existence? My daughter went to Parsons and she was in Adobe. They train on Adobe. And she said, dad, there's this – I bought her this for her – present for graduation. I bought her the$600 suite for Adobe. And she stopped it. I said, why? She goes, I got this Canva for free. Yeah. I said, are you telling me the free product's better than Adobe? She goes, I'm telling you they're equal. Yeah. And that's his stock peaked when Canva came out with free. So these guys are all going to be really challenged.

49:33And now Mark has got, I've worked with Mark Benioff's new product in Salesforce. And I see what it's doing.

49:40Downtown Josh Brown:Agent Force? Yeah, Agent Force. Okay. But the problem with Agent Force is, one, it can be impersonated. So you have to do a lot of cybersecurity. But two, I mean, do you really want to give, like, when you call Walgreens, well, I guess they're almost gone. When you call CVS and you have, like, dial one for this, dial two for that. You don't want to, if they're able to get your information, like, UnitedHealth was a real bad hack. And I got hit by the hack because I had back surgery five years ago. And, like, every five days, someone calls me and says, you know, this is, you know, how's your back surgery?

50:10I understand because I'm from the National Back Guys and we are checking up on your medical. And I said, oh, my God, it's UnitedHealth. It never stops. They know everything about me, and it was a Chinese hack. And I don't want my – I hope Asian forces never hack because they know too much.

50:28Downtown Josh Brown:Right. If you set something loose inside of your email, for example, then all of a sudden it's got every detail it needs for somebody to steal and impersonate. And that's why I like CrowdStrike and Nick Cash Palo Alto so much because they're the two that are most soup to nuts. So you and I are both CrowdStrike bulls. Yeah. George was on yesterday with Wapner in the morning. Yeah, he came on my show the day before. I said, George, you're overexposed, man. Is cybersecurity the most obvious secular bull market between now and the end of the decade other than AI and robotics? Yeah, it's number one.

51:06That's why I own two of them for the trust. I would never do that.

51:09Downtown Josh Brown:Which you own? I own Cyber and Palo Alto. I'll tell you why Scott had them on. It's kind of interesting. When he was getting up, and we had him one pretty early on in the hour, because it was me and Scott, because David was off and Carl was off. And I said to Scott, Scott's a good sports fan like I am. I said, you know, George won Le Mans. And he goes, yeah. I said, no, he won Le Mans. Not as a sponsor. He drives the F1 car. Yeah, and he finished second in Sebring last year. And, you know, Scott was like, give me a break. I said, George, tell him. Tell him. He goes, yeah, I won Le Mans. George has a sleeping problem.

51:44Now, you can only go eight hours. I don't have to go all 24 of one guy. But he can't sleep, so he's like watching all 24 hours, and he's great. And Scott was like, you've got to be kidding me. But George is, yeah, he is. He's the sponsor, but he's also the chief driver. I love him.

52:00Downtown Josh Brown:Who's your favorite CEO? Not because of what the stock performance was, but you've interviewed every important CEO probably over the last 20 years that's ever been. Who's your favorite? Was it Jack Welch? I have a very oddball pick that I – a very odd guess that I want to make. I think you genuinely liked Aubrey McClendon from Chesapeake. Okay. I mentioned Aubrey last week. Oh, you did? Someone. Yeah, because – I think you liked the guy. No, I loved Aubrey. And it was a really – it was a tragic end, but – Yeah, and, you know, Aubrey – Aubrey violated the Sherman Act. Now, if you take a look, there's – when you look at Article 2 of the Sherman Act – Wait.

52:41he burned down Atlanta how do you how do you violate the Sherman Act he rigged he bid rigged okay he there was a nice piece of uh of land that he knew had a lot of nat gas on it and he wanted to be sure he got it so he went to everybody who was bidding and said listen this is mine I'll give you something I wanted it and it was all recorded someone recorded it and he uh was this Chauncey Billups? No. Chesapeake Energy. Chesapeake Energy was the Nvidia of the 2000s.

53:14Downtown Josh Brown:Yes, it was. Aubrey was larger than life and he owned the Thunder and he was a big giver to Duke. He was actually more of a finance guy than he was an oil guy, but he explained a lot in life to me and I went to a bunch of schools with him and I really just enjoyed it. Just really enjoyed him. And he when I went to my he said listen Jimmy I'm in trouble and I say let me check on this let me check on this so I called my guy Paul Weiss who does the antitrust and my friend said he's done he's done it's 10 years he's done and I said I gotta call him back and he said what do I tell him he goes it's 10 years and I left a message and he killed himself about an hour after and he didn't get my message but he was a tragic figure whom I loved.

54:10He got the message. I'll tell you, we went to Ohio together. I wasn't going to say that. We went to Ohio together. Jim, I think you did it. Huh? It was your fault. Yeah, it was my fault. I did it. We went to Ohio together. It was Heather there. It was Heather in the Ohio trip. Exactly. My producer. Yeah. So he goes, Jimmy, listen to me. We got, and then it was the day. My mom and dad called me Jimmy so I like He goes, Jimmy, we're going to go to Utica because there's the largest oil patch in the world, bigger than the Permian. And what we're going to do. Utica, New York. Yeah. We're going to do Utica Ohio.

54:44Oh, Utica Ohio. We're going to go and you're going to be there the moment it – we're going to spud. We're going to spud and it's going to be amazing. So he said, but you got to put all this stuff on. You got to be ready. And he goes, all right, hit it. And nothing comes up. And he goes, no, hit it! It's not it. And the guy comes over to me. He goes, I'm with him. He goes, hey, boss, listen. It's natural gas. No! No, it's oil! No, it's natural gas. He goes, no, there's oil in there. And I'm thinking, oh, my God, there will be blood. I mean, could the guy? But, you know, he lost everything on the Utica.

55:24He lost everything on the Utica.

55:25Downtown Josh Brown:That was a true gambler, for sure. Oh, was he ever a gambler? Oh, I loved him. This is your eighth book. Why are you doing this to yourself? What are we trying to do here? Who is this book for? This is what I f***ed up on. I really did. No, I mean, because I worked really, really hard on it. And I really kind of did a lot of damage. I certainly, I'm a gardener. And I know this sounds stupid, but you only get so many gardens in life. This is my 38th. And I let this one go fallow because I had to read the book into the microphone, as Josh knows. and what happened is that it can only be your voice and the only time my voice would not be able to hold up after the show so I had to work on the weekends and it took me two years to write it.

56:08I was really out of commission. I wrote 500 pages and then they said, listen, pick your best 250 basically. They wanted it to be 250. So then I had this great section about how if you're going to go do a GameStop, let it be a Palantir or a Celsius. So they cut out the Celsius and they cut the Palantir. And the Palantir makes it seem like the carp messianic guy. But what I was trying to say was like, look, at least have some companies that have numbers. You know, have it to have real growth.

56:37Downtown Josh Brown:Oh, so if you want to have this group movement where everyone buys the same stock, the underlying should not necessarily be a video game retailer. Don't buy bullshit. Yeah, and then I also said, let me tell you, a good balance sheet first. But, you know, I said, I'm going to take, I remember telling my wife, I'm going to take on the balance sheet. He said, you have to, because if you're going to say people should pick stocks, you have to at least show them a balance sheet. So I had this big, like 40-page section about AMC's balance sheet and income statement versus Apple's. You know, Apple's is perfect, and AMC's is the worst.

57:07And they said, okay, Jim, we only have room for one. I said, what do you mean one? I said, no, it's a contrast. He said, no, we only have room. We're going to use Apple. I said, no, but Apple's boring. It's a companion. and they said well you know we're not going to do amc because that's bad and i i said but the whole point is to be able to show people what a bad balance sheet is and they said well jim you know we got to worry about people getting through it so the exigencies of having to write a mass book that i wanted to be read uh contrasted versus what trying to be a serious practitioner of the game so you have to make too many I made so many compromises it drove me crazy

57:48Downtown Josh Brown:but the good stuff most of the good stuff made it in you know we're trying to sell the book don't get me wrong what a piece of shit this book was thank you for that I just give you the behind the scenes stuff in the end I actually like it I like the book that you wrote did you like the thing with my dad Mr. Paul these are the stories that help people better understand the investor, the mentality behind the investments and connection. This is why people need to read the book. We are bombarded. I've been talking a lot about this. We are bombarded with why this is going to end badly. And maybe it does.

58:27Fine. But what you are trying to do with the book is tell people, stiff arm the headlines and focus on the opportunities. And it's not easy, but you can do it. Right. And I keep saying, look, I was in 1982, thousand, a thousand, walking down the street, and I'm going to Goldman Sachs at 55 Broad, and everyone's telling me it's a terrible time. Interest rates are real high, and the company's not come back, and Reagan's a doofus and all this stuff. And even then, it was a great time to buy. And I think that, yes, it is absolutely true. In the book, I had to wrestle with 2007, 2009. you were back even again, not till 2013.

59:09So that was a, that was a big, long stretch. But the idea is, is that if you believe, if you're, if you observe and you have some curiosity and you use the chat CPT and you do the current homework, you might have three or four stocks in your life that are really great. And I know I use the NVIDIA and you can say, well, Jim, I had an unfair advantage. But the fact is, is that Jensen asked me to come out because no one would listen to him. That's how I came out. He said, look, I'm going to show you things. No one's listening to me. There was a moment with Jensen where he said, do you think you'd get me in front of like a Wendy's or McDonald's?

59:43Because this thing understands 28 languages. And I called McDonald's. I called Wendy's. That doesn't work for us. Of course, now McDonald's is trying it. But what is amazing is it doesn't take a lot of great ideas to make a million dollars. Just eat like three or four. But if they talk you out of it, then you'll never, ever make anything in your life. And Larry Fink, whom I really respect, he and I worked – he worked on me very hard. He said, look, you've got to get people to invest. These younger people don't believe in anything. And I said, well, look, match index funds, which are very valid, would let them be able to see Facebook.

1:00:19I mean I found Facebook because my daughter was a suicide counselor. And she said, I can't get the kids to not – to get off this thing. Yeah. This thing is like Coke. You got to like, you got to see if you can't get this guy Zuckerberg to stop doing this. Because all the people are trying to commit suicide. It's because their friends are telling them that they're ugly. And it's like, you know, on the one hand, I'm like thinking, well, that's terrible. And the other thing, I'm thinking, shit, Coke. This is Coke, legal Coke. All right, Jimmy, we got five minutes. No, we don't. That's bullshit. Where the vote?

1:00:49Where are we going? What are we going to do? Yeah, we got to go watch some. It's in Knicks. So you put them on. So

1:00:55Downtown Josh Brown:There's no football right now Right So Michael had this adorable idea Where We do What an asshole No I'm I don't mean it facetiously I mean people have a lot to do Michael had this I'm having more fun than I've had on this damn book tour We're absolutely having a blast Michael had this really adorable idea Where it would be very Fitting Very on brand To end with a little mini lightning round What I don't want to do is Like just throw the mic out there And have people tell them Tell you how much they love you because that could eat up too much time. So I thought we would throw some tickers slash themes slash whatever at you, and you could keep these as brief for as long as you want.

1:01:34Downtown Josh Brown:It's totally up to you. I'll start. So there's this misconception. How about Michael start? Shut up. It's my turn now. I have the mic. Every stock is going up. It's a bubble. It's just not true. There are a lot. There's 170 stocks in the S &P that are down 20%. Absolutely. There's a lot of opportunity. So a couple of weeks ago, Josh and I did value or value trap. So let's start here. Lululemon. Okay, I love Calvin McDonald, but he has to adopt to – he has to understand that when I go to Costco and they got the exact same thing for$17, he's got to reprogram. Is that the problem there? Yes. Okay.

1:02:09Downtown Josh Brown:Not aloe, but the low end. The low end. Look, Richard Glantz, he's a good friend of mine. He was the CFO at Costco 38 years ago. And he told me that Lululemon, when they sued them because their stuff was exactly the same, that was the end of Lululemon. The stock was about 350. So I think management hasn't been able to reinvent. How did they keep him? I mean, think about that. How did they keep him? Josh, what else? I would love to get your take. Amazon is flat on the year. Isn't that something? What the hell is going on there? Amazon Web Services, and they better do a better, they got to show you 22 % growth this week.

1:02:47Downtown Josh Brown:What's keeping that stock from participating with the rest of the NASDAQ? The last five years, what a magnificent underperformer. Right. It is amazing. And I don't want to blame Jassy. I think that what's happened is that Amazon Web Services was doing really great. And then Google Cloud, Thomas Curran came in. And obviously Azure, Nadella is a very tough guy. But I think the main thing is I take the cue from my son who does software, okay? He does venture capital software. And he says, look, I would never write on Amazon Web Services because it's retail product. You write on OpenAID. You write on Azure.

1:03:26You write on OpenAID. You write on Google.

1:03:27Downtown Josh Brown:Like developing software. Yeah. And when you hear like the cutting edge people don't want to write on it, what that really means is that that's the beginning of the end. It means that it's just a product that's meant for retailers. And then they have the outage this week, and the stock should not have gone off. The outage was terrible. But I do believe that they are in a scrum against Walmart and Costco on retail. This Amazon Web Services is losing customers. Behind on AI. Yeah, they're behind on AI. And when I had this discussion with Andy Jassy, I said, look, Andy, you're doing – you don't want to pay Jensen's price.

1:04:04And I get that. and you're doing your tranium and you got your really interesting chips. But the fact is that no one wants to write on you because they can go to OpenAI and they can write on NVIDIA. Does Bezos pull a Bob Iger? I'm sorry? Does Bezos pull a Bob Iger?

1:04:21Downtown Josh Brown:Or a Howard Schultz or anyone else who's had to come back. He respects Jassy and that guy Doug who does retail is really fabulous. I just think that if you're going to – that he's decided to be cheap. He's cheap. He won't pay Jensen. And the fact is that Musk, if you go over Musk's conference call, there's this moment in the call where he goes, and you know what? NVIDIA is the best, and I have to use NVIDIA. Now, think about that. There isn't anything that he's ever said that he isn't the best. He's always the best. And he goes, you know what? NVIDIA is the best. And I was like, yes, I knew that.

1:04:58And Jassy should read that, and he should recognize that this whole trading bullshit, No one wants to use this stuff because it's not fancy.

1:05:05Downtown Josh Brown:Did you notice that they're not in that carousel of companies that are announcing open AI partnerships? They're like not in the – it's like a – it seems like there's a cool club that Oracle is in and Sam Altman is in. And Amazon is like not in any of these announcements. Well, how about that Anthropic? They have more money in Anthropic than that. Anthropic went to Google. All right, a few other ones. We spoke about – But I'm on this one, by the way. I'm like spending – You're long. I got one more before I forget it. No, no, I'm spending a lot of time with Amazon to see if it can't be great because I love Amazon.

1:05:32on the company. I'm not giving up on Amazon. I'm not.

1:05:36Downtown Josh Brown:Palantir, are you as impressed with Alex Karp as he is with himself? All right, so. I find him to be really interesting. I'm not long the stock. I'm curious what you think. I'm one of the new books who come out. Axios has some stuff about it. I don't like him. Isn't he a Philly? He's a Philly guy too? Yeah, oh, I told him that. I said, listen, like you're like a more repulsive Philly guy than I am. I gave him a note once. I said, I'm not your enemy. And he goes, yeah. I said, no, that's a peace offering. Yeah. It was like horrible. He's like a horrible guy. But I think he's real. I think that – and I say that because like all the companies that have hired him, the big ones, I've called them and I said, how is it?

1:06:17And they all – to a person say, listen, it's pretty good.

1:06:20Downtown Josh Brown:I mean he's on fire. That business is on fire. It's on fire. But is it too expensive even given how on fire they are? It seems crazy to me. It is rule of 80. I think I'm going to end up – it's going to go to – They're killing Willow, Eddie. They're killing. Yeah. And, you know, look, Boeing just went with them, and Ortberg, who's a very serious guy. When I say they're serious guys, it's like the scene in Succession. Right? Yeah, right. Brian Cox. You're not serious people. You are not serious people. Well, it's a great line because I'm talking about people who are serious. Like, Ortberg would not be going to him.

1:06:53I know a kid who went there from Wharton, and I know his mom. And his mom was saying, you know, they work 24-7. They're all – Karp to them is a hero because he's really not imperious at all to them. And that's what makes me like him. Now, I sent that guy Shyam, the number two guy. He had a really good piece about the military last week. I sent him an email, and I knew he wasn't going to return. But I just said, look, I know you guys despise me, whatever. But then I meet this woman, Wendy, who's in charge of defense. She's head of defense. She's in the Department of Defense at Palantir, which is like a real legitimate Palantir.

1:07:32And she says she came up to me. And Heather was there. She goes, hey, Alex likes you. I said, what? What? She goes, Alex likes you. Okay. I said, yeah, yeah, sure. She said, no, no. You think she's a good guy? If he thinks of me, I said, if he thinks of a good guy, what does he think about the guys that he really dislikes? Jimmy, a few other iconic American brands. Take in when you want. Chipotle, Nike, Starbucks, Airbnb. Chipotle, that guy. I mean, I love Scott. He's not pulling it off. I mean, I check all these different Chipotles. The last one I went to on Sunday night, dirty, ridiculous, used to be nice.

1:08:11I think Elliott Hill is going to turn Nike. It's going to be two quarters because there's too much inventory. I spent a lot of – I went to a Dallas Eagles game with him. I really wanted to find out if the guy is real. I think the guy is very, very real. But New Balance is the one he's worried about because they're better performance. He's not worried about Hoka. Obviously, everybody else isn't either after today's number. But I think he's going to be able to pull it off. I really do. That's a nice –

1:08:32Downtown Josh Brown:Hoka is Deckers. That's Deckers, yeah. I don't – and that was a bad – the numbers were mid-single. Chipotle, no. Chipotle, no. Airbnb? You have to change management. Airbnb? ABME? Airbnb. Airbnb. That's a tequila talking. I'm sorry. I slurred. No, no. Chesky is an interesting figure because I like him, but he has to bring in someone else to have a bigger vision than he does. Because he's like, you got like Dara has a big vision. And he has to bring a guy like Tony Hsu from DoorDash, really big vision. His vision isn't big enough. Now, when I've mentioned that to him, he's like, I don't have the vision either.

1:09:09So when you say something like that to a guy who's insecure, they say, well, what's your vision? But you say it to a secure guy, I say, yeah, I got to get somebody else in. I think Brian Nichols is going to turn Starbucks big because he was about execution he was about execution

1:09:24Downtown Josh Brown:that stock has been$85 for six years this is the year no it's going to be look this quarter is still going to be tough and I know that people are going to get discouraged go back down to 79 you know what the problem is China is worth 10 million north of 10 bill now before it was south of 10 bill I know it's splitting hairs I want to pull the trigger on these names, every name Michael just mentioned, Chipotle, Nike, Starbucks. No, don't say Chipotle because they got a real lot. They don't think anything's wrong. But they're all 35 to 40 times earnings. They're expensive. We're in a market where even the worst performers, the stocks don't get cheap enough.

1:10:03No, they have to have an earnings breakout. And I do think that you have to believe in Brian, who I do, and it's tough to just believe in a guy and also have to deal with the fact that everybody else must, or else you wouldn't have that high PE. But Elliott is – Donahoe wrecked that, did really, really – did major damage to that company. And two CEOs did major damage to Starbucks. That's a long – you're talking about five, six years of just terrible damage. Most brands cannot handle five, six years of damage. They just can't. And so those two, you're betting that the brand is strong enough to have dealt with how horrendous the CEOs were.

1:10:37When I say horrendous, like everyone in this room would have been better than anyone. You killed the last CEO of Starbucks. Yeah, that was bad. That was rough. Well, I had a decision tree for that piece. I had a decision tree. I had gotten a number. I pulled every stop out to get the numbers for Tim Hortons, which were not gettable, and get the numbers for Duncan, which were not gettable. But I did. I really worked hard knowing about that interview. So I had them. So I said, if he is humble, go with, you know, I understand. It's fine. If he's not humble, just give him everything you got. I think you got him fired.

1:11:10I really do. No, I know.

1:11:12Downtown Josh Brown:All right, last one. Last one. And this is not a recommendation to the audience. What is your favorite stock right now? Give us a 10-billion dollar. No, no. I have two. I have two stocks that I love right now. Guys, will we take two? I have two stocks. We'll take two? All right, we'll take two. All right, first of all. We're not like your publisher. We'll take two. First of all, I actually love the stock of Boeing. Really? Yeah, I do. Because they've solved the construction problems. Okay. And the demand is incredible. They have their act together now. They got their act together, and Kelly's real serious.

1:11:47And they actually won – the fact that they won that fighter plane told you that the government's not going to give them a hard time.

1:11:52Downtown Josh Brown:Where does that stock trade today? It's at 219. I think you can go to – Down from 600? I think you can go to – Down from 600? Yeah, I think you can go to 300 pretty quickly. Okay. Once they get the cash flow, and the cash flow is really – They're in the good graces of the White House again. They're in great – yeah, see, that really mattered. Airplane demand around the world is as strong as it's ever been. If Airbus could meet the demand, then it wouldn't be so good. But they also have the Y body, and they don't have the non-union Y body. It's doing very well. But the other one is one that people are not thinking about, and they've got to think about, which is Capital One.

1:12:26Downtown Josh Brown:Really? Yeah, Capital One. I like the chart, COF. Oh, my God. How about that chart? They bought this company called Discover, and Discover has a network like MasterCard and Visa. Discover is a credit card company for people who have no money. Exactly right. Exactly right. It's brilliant. And if you look at their numbers from this last quarter, they had a huge decline in defaults. Because this guy, Richard Fairbank, I've met Richard Fairbank. I was saying in 2007 that Capital One was going to go under. And I get this phone call. I don't know how he got my phone number. I said, listen, I'm here.

1:12:59I'm like my proctologist, man. I got like a problem. I'm trying to figure it out. He goes, do you have 10 minutes? I go, have a minute later. The proctologist said, yeah, are you coming in here? There's a guy up in Columbia Presbyterian. I said, I'm talking to this guy from Capital One. He said, well, what does that mean? And I got off the phone. I said, this guy's the smartest guy I have ever seen. And he won't come on the show. He's a very humble guy. But this Capital One is a rocket ship. Buffett's a big shareholder. Which one? Berkshire is a big shareholder of Capital One. I didn't know that he's in that.

1:13:25Yeah. Really? Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yes. Ever since that, I don't think he's picking them, you know? So I've been checking what he's in. But the conference call was just magnificent. It was a magnificent conference call. And that's about the American consumer. So what a great way to end. Well, I mean, look, Capital One is the way they're going upscale and downscale. And I urge people not to buy it, but to do everything you can to learn this stuff. Do your research. Because this one is a monster.

1:13:53Downtown Josh Brown:Jim, I want to close by just reiterating how appreciative Michael and I are for decades of your commentary and educating all of us. I know the audience feels the same way. You're an icon. You're a legend. This conversation lived up to it. and we love you. Thank you so much. Well, thank you. Thank you. Round of applause, Jim Kramer. Oh. All right. Guys, I want to let everybody know we're going to be, we're going to run off the stage so we can get in place. We're going to do, we'll sign some books, we'll take some pictures and we'll try to get to everybody. So let us make our egress. Nicole's going to walk us, are you walking us off or what are we doing, music?

1:14:32Downtown Josh Brown:All right. We want to meet everybody. We'll be out there if you're interested. Thank you guys so much for being here. We appreciate it. Thank you. Jim.

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