In short
Podcast Summary: The Compound and Friends Episode on Financial Insights
Episode Details
- Title: JPMorgan Earnings, Trump vs Powell, Goldman’s Revenge, Apple + Google Deal
- Hosts: Downtown Josh Brown, Michael Batnick
- Air Date: [Insert Date Here]
- Sponsor: Betterment Advisor Solutions
- Podcast Description: Join Downtown Josh Brown, Michael Batnick, and friends for expert insight and hot takes on business and investing.
Key Discussion Points
- Zebra Striping and Social Drinking
- Definition: Alternating drinks with non-alcoholic beverages (like sparkling water) to prolong social engagements while reducing hangover risks.
- Cultural Reference: The concept is humorously referred to as "zebra striping."
- Earnings Season Insights
- Earnings Releases:
- Noted that earnings season is arriving quickly, with anticipation for reports from major banks.
- Ed Yardenny's Forecast: Anticipates an 8.6% year-over-year increase in earnings for Q4 2025, potentially justifying the recent market rally.
- JP Morgan Earnings
- Report Highlights:
- Jamie Dimon (JP Morgan CEO) pointed out the resilience of the U.S. economy amidst concerns.
- Full year earnings projection for 2025 is set at $57.5 billion.
- Discussion on bank profits and interest margins, with a focus on consumer spending and business health.
- Political Dynamics and Monetary Policy
- Trump vs. Powell:
- Recent developments about DOJ subpoenas related to Powell's testimony on Fed renovations, highlighting tension between political pressures and the independence of the Federal Reserve.
- Dimon's Caution: Despite positive economic indications, Dimon emphasizes ongoing geopolitical risks.
- Goldman Sachs Strategy
- Divestment from Consumer Banking:
- Goldman’s decision to offload its Apple credit card business due to significant losses, marking a strategic retreat from consumer-focused financial services.
- Apple + Google Partnership
- Deal Overview:
- Google’s technology will power a revamped Siri, aiming to improve user experience and integrate cutting-edge AI capabilities into Apple's ecosystem.
- Market Trends and Predictions
- Investment Strategies:
- Discussion on cyclical industries showing growth, particularly in sectors sensitive to economic changes (e.g., materials, construction).
- Emphasis on the importance of investor sentiment and market momentum across different sectors, including technology and finance.
- Airline Industry Developments
- Delta Earnings:
- Delta’s projection of a 20% jump in earnings for 2026, with a notable shift in revenue focus towards premium seating options.
Key Takeaways
- Economic Resilience: The current financial landscape remains optimistic with strong consumer spending and bank profitability.
- Earnings Expectations: Forecasts suggest continued growth in earnings, reinforcing the positive market sentiment.
- Regulatory Environment: The ongoing interplay between political pressures and monetary policy could have lasting impacts on market stability.
- Sector Performance: Monitoring cyclical sectors is crucial as they often indicate broader economic trends.
Conclusion The episode encapsulates a blend of humor, financial insight, and strategic market analysis. As the hosts navigate earnings reports and broader economic themes, they highlight the interplay between investment strategies and evolving market conditions. The discussions also touch on the implications of recent political events on financial institutions, emphasizing the need for investors to remain adaptable in a rapidly changing landscape.
Follow-Up
- Next Episode Announcement: Tune in for future discussions and insights every Tuesday and Friday as the hosts continue to dissect the evolving landscape of business and investing.
- Engagement: The hosts encourage feedback and questions from listeners to enhance community interaction.
[Listen to the episode here.](#)
--- *Disclaimer: This podcast is for informational purposes and does not constitute personalized investment advice. Always consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.*
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOEarnings Season Insights
3:41 to 5:33
Discussion on the earnings season and the expectations for this quarter.
“Wasn't it just earnings season like the other day?”
JP Morgan Earnings Analysis
5:34 to 9:45
Deep dive into JP Morgan's earnings report and insights from Jamie Dimon.
“with another double digit earnings growth year over year, it to me justifies the vigor of the rally that we experienced in September, October, November.”
Consumer Confidence and Economic Outlook
9:46 to 14:03
Exploration of consumer spending trends and macroeconomic factors affecting banks.
“but this is literally written down on the report.”
Impact of Credit Access Changes
14:03 to 17:48
Discussion on how proposed changes to credit access could negatively affect consumers and the economy.
“What's actually simply going to happen is that the provision of the service will change dramatically.”
Earnings Season Insights
17:49 to 21:56
Analysis of recent earnings calls and market reactions, including Delta and upcoming reports.
“it's almost all becoming one big battle royal.”
Tech Stocks and Market Performance
21:57 to 27:25
Exploration of the performance of tech stocks versus the broader market and implications for investors.
“And so let's talk about where we are today, what's going on in the stock market.”
Apple and Google's AI Partnership
27:26 to 28:00
Details of Apple and Google's collaboration to enhance Siri using Google's AI technology.
“I just like that the conversation is not Microsoft every day.”
Apple and Google's AI Collaboration
28:00 to 29:03
Explore the implications of Apple's partnership with Google's AI technology.
“We're going to get like an AI powered Siri, which they promised us over a year ago, finally happening.”
User Experience with Siri
29:04 to 30:56
Discuss the user experience of Siri and its limitations in functionality.
“So does Google pay Apple$20 billion for Chrome to be the default browser?”
Goldman Sachs' Shift in Strategy
30:57 to 33:16
Analyze Goldman Sachs' transition from consumer banking back to traditional finance.
“I like, I don't even want an answer from it.”
Show all 24 chapters
The Historical Roots of Goldman Sachs
33:17 to 36:21
Delve into the historical origins of Goldman Sachs and its shift in focus.
“I divested itself from all that nonsense distraction, going to Main Street, going to different verticals, consumer banking, like it was a bad experiment.”
David Solomon's Leadership at Goldman Sachs
36:22 to 37:57
Evaluate David Solomon's management decisions and their impact on Goldman Sachs.
“These are very different segments that they were born to serve.”
Goldman Sachs' Financial Performance
37:58 to 40:05
Review Goldman Sachs' financial performance and market position under Solomon.
“But the types of swings that Solomon was taking are not historically rewarded by Wall Street and by the investor class.”
Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve
40:06 to 42:06
Discuss the implications of political pressure on the Federal Reserve's independence.
“I don't know if Morgan Stanley is much better.”
Federal Reserve Integrity and Accountability
42:06 to 42:36
Discussion on maintaining independence and integrity in the Federal Reserve amidst political pressures.
“I have served at the Federal Reserve under four administrations, Republicans and Democrats alike.”
Political Pressure on the Federal Reserve
42:36 to 43:40
Exploring the implications of political pressure on the Federal Reserve's decisions and actions.
“And I'm not saying that I like this kind of thing.”
Debate on Federal Reserve Independence
43:40 to 45:25
A debate on the independence of the Federal Reserve and the influence of political advisors.
“A lot of the people that normally just like whatever the administration says, they just repeat it.”
Economic Conditions and Republican Strategies
45:25 to 48:50
Analysis of current economic conditions and the differing strategies within the Republican Party regarding affordability crises.
“Which means it's going to quietly go away, my guess.”
Future of Material Stocks and Housing Market
48:50 to 51:00
Discussion on the anticipated rise of material stocks and the impact of a potential new housing cycle.
“But I think what all these things add up to, you want to be in material stocks because you're getting a new Fed chair in May, and they're going to run it hot.”
Delta Airlines Revenue Insights
51:00 to 54:39
Insights into Delta Airlines' earnings growth and shifting revenue from main cabin to premium services.
“from sheetrock to concrete to like, it's just, it's all, it all becomes one trade.”
Airline Preferences and Experiences
54:39 to 56:00
Discussion on personal airline preferences and the differences in customer experience between airlines.
“No, I don't think that it reverses anytime soon.”
Market Trends and Stock Strategies
56:11 to 58:23
Understand the importance of stop-losses and market trends while trading.
“If my kid flying to college cancels her flight, I have that in the bank.”
The Performance of the Russell 2000
58:24 to 1:00:08
Discover insights into the Russell 2000's performance compared to the S&P 500.
“But here's the other point that I want to make.”
Analyzing a Blue Chip Stock
1:00:09 to 1:02:14
Dive into the analysis of a major blue chip stock and its market behavior.
“I left the price on because I don't want to make it so difficult.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:17Gangsters, we're back. Sup? Yo, you know what zebra striping is? No. You don't? I don't. You've never heard of this? I'm going to try it this weekend. Zebra striping is when you go out to a party or for drinks, but you alternate. You do a drink and then something in the middle and then a drink and then something in the middle. like either sparkling water or like even Diet Coke or just like a bottle of Poland Spring. And it like supposedly prolongs the night, reduces the possibility of hangover, and still allows you to be like socially having had a drink and not like the guy that's like, I'm doing dry January.
1:05I don't do dry January. You're not doing four drinks in a row and then waking up the next morning with your head on fire. All right, we can try it tomorrow. The kids are calling it zebra striping. And I said, that sounds like my kind of version of dry January. It's too much. Four syllables. I don't like it. Zebra striping. No, if you say it fast. No, not for me. All right, guys. Welcome to What Are Your Thoughts? America's favorite live stream about markets, the economy, and life. My name is Downtown Josh Brown. For first-time listeners, nice to meet you. I'm here with my co-host Mr. Michael Batnick Michael say hello Did we just open the show with zebra striping?
1:47Yeah, why don't you zebra stripe a hello for the folks What's up folks? Guys, we have a live chat going as usual Love to see all my regulars here in the chat All the gangsters Welcome Cliff Peebles, Chris Hayes John Carlo is here Charisma Spigot is back Akbar Muhammad is here Everybody's here Benjamin Lupu is back Georgie D trying to give all the regulars their props today we appreciate you guys thank you for coming this week each and every week you're already cracking me up in the live commentary so good to see you guys we have a sponsor tonight like to let you know tonight's sponsor is our friend Betterment Advisor Solutions Michael tell us about Betterment what can I say about Betterment What growth strategy are leading RAs using that most firms don't, Josh?
2:40I don't know. Segmentation. Some clients' needs are sophisticated and require deep ongoing planning. Some clients' needs are simple, like those in the wealth accumulation stage. If you're zebra striping, for example. The smartest firms know planning shouldn't look the same for every client, but the experience should always be exceptional. And now it can be with Betterment Advisor Solutions. It's the platform built for segmenting your book and streamlining those smaller and simpler accounts. The onboarding experience is automated and paperless. The portfolio management is streamlined and tax efficient.
3:11The client experience is consistent and modern. And the impact isn't just felt by your clients. It's felt across your entire practice. Imagine a back office that's humming, a team that's thriving, and a service model ready to scale. Betterment Advisor Solutions, your biggest regret will be not doing it sooner. Learn more at betterment.com slash Advisors. Thank you to Betterment. All right. And we are proud user and client of Betterment Advisor Solutions. Earnings season already. Wasn't it just earnings season like the other day? Is it coming faster and faster? You know what it is? They end late.
3:52You know what I mean? It goes on forever. It's not a season anymore. You're exactly right. It tails off. It tails off. Like we heard from Nike like four days ago. I mean, I know that's not true, but it's a long season. But you know what? We're about to get into the thick of it, Josh. It's about to get meaty and I'm here for it. I love hearing from the financials. You know I do. So this is one of, I agree, this is one of my favorite weeks of earnings season. The first one when we hear from the financials, because I just think there's like so much anticipation that all of a sudden the bank CEO is going to come out and tell us how fucked up everything is and they never do.
4:26Well, you know what, Josh? And it's always hilarious. Go ahead. I don't really care that much, no offense, about Sweetgreen or Chipotle because all of that sort of shit is idiosyncratic. It's the stock price multiple. It's the locations. It's the consumer. Whatever. That's your own problem. I want to hear from the banks that serve everybody. How is everybody in the aggregate doing? That's what I want to know. Yeah, and it's like 36 months in a row of them coming out and being like, I know you want us to tell you that we're seeing signs of deterioration. Sorry. foiled again, not this time, not this Q.
5:00And once again, but let me set the table. Ed Yardenny was writing about the Q4 2025 earnings season just generally. And he's saying collectively, we're looking for an 8.6 % year over year increase for these Q4 earnings, which is pretty good market-wide. And he points out they were way too cautious for the first three quarters. and he thinks they'll be low yet again. He thinks 10 to 12%. If we do it, if we finish this earnings season, which it'll be a while before we can confirm it, with another double digit earnings growth year over year, it to me justifies the vigor of the rally that we experienced in September, October, November.
5:45Like the market was right yet again. Let me show you Ed's chart on financial earnings. this is all commercial banks loans and leases like i'm not like a cycle expert but just looking at large banks and small banks correlated seeing um this this uptick in loans and leases i think it's like all right do we want to get bearish now like of all things now is when we want to get bearish next one is the spread uh the spread between the 10 year and the two year like this is just this is the meat and potatoes of how banks make their money so jp morgan reported like 95 billion dollars in net uh in uh uh net interest and this is like the bread and butter of the banking business so that's not a profit of course there are expenses that go along with that but like banks make their money um in in in the net interest margin and uh that that treasury yield curve spread is kind of a stand-in for that.
6:47I'm going to show you a couple more. This is U.S. corporate bonds and equity issuance. This is another way large Wall Street banks make money, literally selling IPOs, selling stocks, selling bonds, helping the treasury market as a dealer. And this will show up in these earnings and already is. Next one is loan and lease losses. so we don't want to see this number tick up we want to see this one flat line or god forbid even tick lower it is I don't know what you want I know people want a change in the narrative and they want everyone else to buy into this like the consumer is barely hanging on by a thread maybe someday not today there's one other I wanted to show payroll employment next what else do I have All right, so this is like the forward earnings for the index itself.
7:47And you can see we're obviously at the higher end of the historic range, somewhere around 13, 14X, but not the highest ever. And again, we're at a pretty good part of the cycle here where there's tons of activity in all aspects of these banks' actual business. Do the last one. Skip the last one. This is the financial stocks in the S &P 500, the 400, and the 600. So that's the mid caps and the small caps. Like this is not a story of haves and have nots. This is not a story of, you know, mega cap outperformance dominating. They're all telling you the same story. So either everybody on earth is wrong and you are the only one that knows how bad things really are, or you sort of have to just look at this confluence of things and say, okay, these banks are in a really good position and that's probably because the economy is pretty good.
8:52It would be hard to make the case the economy is horrible, therefore the banks have a lot of good things to say. What are your thoughts? Yeah, you're right. That would be unusual. Every quarter, we hear Jamie Dimon. We sort of respectfully roll our eyes of all of the risks that are to come and all of the reasons to be cautious. And sometimes a hurricane is coming. Sometimes there are cockroaches. Sometimes we're underestimating the geopolitical risks. And respectfully, he's the biggest risk manager of the biggest bank in the world. It would be unusual if he was like rainbows and butterflies. That's not what he gets paid to do.
9:34He gets paid to worry about risk. But I thought what was so notable about this report is that on page one, this is a quote. This is not in the call, which he had some bullish comments on, but this is literally written down on the report. In the release. Quote, in the release. Quote, the US economy has remained resilient. This is Jamie Dimon. While labor markets have softened, conditions do not appear to be worsening. Meanwhile, while consumers continue to spend and businesses generally remain healthy. These conditions could persist for some time, particularly with ongoing fiscal stimulus, the benefits of due regulation at the Fed's recent monetary policy.
10:14And then of course he goes on to say, however, whatever, but he's, he's saying it, he's saying it. Full year earnings for 2025 for JP Morgan, $57.5 billion. That's$150 million in pure profit every day of 2025, including Saturdays and Sundays. This bank is making$150 million a day in profit, not revenue. To me, that is just beyond extraordinary. I mean, it's truly, it's unbelievable how profitable this business is, how dominant. And actually, that's a slight downtick in overall net earnings. I think they were 58 billion in 24. But again, this is the biggest bank in the country and one of the biggest stocks by market cap in the world and with good reason.
11:15I wanted to share, I'm going to skip this, what Barnum said. He basically echoed that on the consumer. We are currently not seeing deterioration across income groups. So that's like the headline. And then Erica Najarian from UBS gets like the fourth or fifth question. The first question was like a stable coin question. Stable coins. Yeah, that was interesting. I don't fully understand what the issue was there. But basically, she's like, Jamie, can you make us feel better? So she's like, investors were feeling quite optimistic about the fundamental macro opportunities for the banks in 26, paired with deregulation, of course.
11:56And I think this weekend sort of shook their confidence, given the social media post about credit card cap rates. Trump said 10 % cap rates on credit cards as of January 20th or something. I don't think it's going to happen. And then the Department of Justice subpoenaed Chair Powell. And investors kept saying over the weekend, quote, we can't wait to hear what Jamie has to say about the 2026 outlook. So she's like, Jamie, can you make us feel better? And he sort of did. He said, I think when you're guessing what the macro environment is going to be, if you ask me in the short run, call it six months and nine months and even a year.
12:35It's pretty positive. Consumers have money. There's still jobs. There's a lot of stimulus coming from the big, beautiful bill. Deregulation is a plus, not just for banks. Banks will redeploy capital. But then he's like, look, geopolitics is an enormous amount of risk. So it's like you have to – and he goes into the debt and blah, blah, blah. So you have to like do what Jamie Dimon does. You have to balance two ideas in your head at the same time. The environment is pretty good, but there are also huge risks out there. We just don't know if they're going to affect us in the next six months, nine months, 12 months.
13:14Nobody does or ever at all, quite frankly, or maybe they're the wrong risks that we're worried about. I think to be an investor in 2026 or any year, you have to do those two things. It's a great message. I'm not saying there's no risk, but I'm saying things right now are pretty good. And I think that's what he got across. Yeah. As you're thinking about allocating your own money, you have to say to yourself, should the conditions persist and we go and bull market, am I taking enough risk that I'm going to feel good about the upside that I'm capturing? And if it's not, and if the wheels fall off, am I taking too much risk that I'm going to bail at an inopportune time?
13:56And that's life that's investing, that's running a business. They were asked directly about the cap rate stuff. And Jeremy said, this is the CFO who leads the call. What's actually simply going to happen is that the provision of the service will change dramatically. Specifically, people will lose access to credit on a very, very extensive and broad basis, especially the people who need it the most, ironically. And so that's a pretty severely negative consequence for consumers and frankly, probably also a negative consequence for the economy as a whole right now. I don't think anybody who's serious think that this is going to happen.
14:32Also why it won't happen. No chance. And then it's like – and then someone's saying, oh, there's talk that it's just going to be about revolvers. And then someone's like, what about all the subcredit cards? Like think about how many versions there are of a Visa card or a MasterCard to varying degrees, subprime borrowers, department stores. Like the idea of all of a sudden there being a cap that makes people just deny credit to millions of people and that that's somehow going to help the affordability crisis. You have to be absolutely out of your mind. They asked a lot of questions about the proposed takeover of the Apple credit card loan portfolio from Goldman Sachs.
15:13And I thought this was really interesting. They were talking about how specifically Apple built this technology to be seamless with iOS. And it's not like a traditional, oh, we'll just take over that credit card business. Like they said it could take up to two years to fold that in to their existing credit card operations. Who knew? Who knew? Jamie was very complimentary to the tech that they built. But yeah, nonetheless. By the way, I think their earnings were down. I think they took a preliminary or premature charge off from that. But yeah, it was sort of a boring call, which is great. There was not really a lot there.
15:49They spoke about NBFIs. As a long-term shareholder, I'll take that boring call. Yeah. And the stock reacted negatively today. Just, I don't know, whatever. It's been up a lot. I don't think there's anything really negative in this story. Yeah, I think this thing went from 250 to 350 in the last year. Yeah, it's okay. So you could understand. Chart on. We have some more earnings this week. Why did Delta gave guidance today? Or Delta reported today. Delta reported. and gave bullish guidance. We're going to hit that later. Citi and Wells Fargo are tomorrow. I'm Thursday. I'm a Thursday guy. BlackRock, Goldman, is Morgan there too?
16:26You love that BlackRock call. That's a busy day for me. I do love that BlackRock call. And the Morgan call, because that's wealth management. Are you a J.B. Hunt? No. You a J.B. Hunt guy? You don't care about trucking? Nope. Not a trucker. I don't know. I'm not either, but I thought maybe you would be. All right, you're up. What do you got? All right, we're going to weave on this topic, Josh. I've got a lot to cover. So we're going to start with Spotify and Netflix. We're going to go into some sexist stuff, and then we're going to tie a little bow on this baby. All right, I thought this was super interesting, and I'd love to get your take.
17:02Did you know that Spotify and Netflix are the same stock? Like, almost literally? Oh, shit. No, that's funny. Wow. What do you think that's about? this is remarkable and it's more than one of them is involved in an m &a transaction the other one's not there are obvious like um overlaps i mean they're doing business together they're they're both in in pretty competitive markets and they're both competing with youtube frankly but they're they're both getting their kicked in i think spotify competes with youtube and maybe Most people would associate it more competing head-to-head with Apple Music.
17:43But I agree with you. YouTube versus Spotify podcasts on video versus Netflix, it's almost all becoming one big battle royal. It's really interesting. They all want your eyes. At the end of the day, they all want your eyeballs and your ears. Okay, so let's move on. I never looked at these two side-by-side. Dude, it's wild. Just throw it back up for a sec. I mean, you don't have to squint. This is the same chart. Okay. Yeah. All right. Some really great research. This is from, we're going to start with turning point. Before you throw this chart on, John, we spoke recently about how many active funds underperformed last year.
18:23And I don't know what somebody would have had to do to outperform. It was a brutally difficult market. Most stocks underperformed the index. And as a result, most sectors underperformed, but the spread by which they underperformed, throw this chart on, this comes from turning point market research. They do great work. So we're looking at the number of sectors that have lagged the S &P 500 by at least 50 % over three years. It's as high as it's ever been. It's six sectors have lagged by 50%. So if you're in the wrong sectors, I'm going to guess it's healthcare, real estate, and energy. I'm not positive.
19:02until recently materials too. Yeah. Matter of fact, I don't know why I stopped there. It's staples for sure. I'm guessing. Staples definitely. Right? Like, so, all right. So then turning to Duality Research, he has an awesome chart showing that since the liberal, no, I'm sorry. I'm sorry. Not Liberation Day, Lewis. Since chat GB, since, yeah. So since the, since the launch, every sector has underperformed the S &P, say for tech stocks and communication stocks. So Google and Meta, okay? But more recently, more recently, if you zoom in a little bit, tech has been getting destroyed, relatively speaking, I think maybe underreported.
19:42Josh, did you know this? We're looking at technology. This is zooming in. So over the last 50 days, tech has underperformed almost to a three standard deviation degree against the broader index. Did you know this? No. This is so recent. This is since how long? Five days? It's 50, 50, 50 days. 50 days. But I'll do you one better. So by the way, I think the upshot is that this is not bad. This is the opposite of bad. I think this is very bullish. So I've never heard of this next company, Blue Cardic Market Insights, and I freaking love this chart. Look how awesome this chart is. we're looking at the S &P 500 on the top pane.
20:26And those red dots that we're looking at is when XLK, so when tech stocks fall over 1 % and yet 350 stocks in the S &P rally, which is unusual, because tech is generally a risk on sector. So it's a relatively unusual phenomenon. It's happened in the past, I don't know, a dozen times it's happened, but here's what I love what they did. So they show the average price path on average from when that trigger happens in red for all days, right? Going back to like the turn of the century. But what I love so much that they did is they show the average price path since 2016. So the takeaway is like generally, if you look at the red line, not actually that bullish in the short term, forget about the red line, not forget about it.
21:11But if you look at like what has happened since 2016, which I would argue is probably more important than data from 2002. It's been kind of bullish. I love this chart. So the takeaway is, because I think people don't understand this, and I don't think I've ever seen it put this way. The takeaway is like the XLK falling, even though they're the biggest, most important stocks, quote unquote, it's not a negative for the rest of the market. And in fact, it could actually serve as like fuel. So I had that right. Right. So this is showing, to take it a step further, it's showing when XLK falls 1%, and yet 350 stocks in the S &P are up on that same day.
21:51Yeah. So you could say like, uh-oh, the market is losing its leadership. That's probably bad. It's not true. And so let's talk about where we are today, what's going on in the stock market. ChartKid calls it the great broadening. So he has a chart showing the cap-weighted index of financials, industrials, and materials, all things that have not really kicked ass in recent years. And they're kicking ass. And then he shows, I'm sorry, this is cap weight. My bad. The next chart shows equal weight. So it's not just the mega caps. It's all working. And this to me, chart off, Josh, what I'm about to show you is so bullish it hurts.
22:31Remember that guy? Okay. Who said that? So bullish it hurts? There was a guy on CNBC in like 2013. I can't remember which strategist it was, who said, I'm so bullish it hurts. And everybody - Sandback and Fried? That's it. That's who it was. Whatever. I can't remember who it was. It doesn't matter. Look how - All right. This next chart is turning point market research. We're looking at cyclical industries, okay? And what Dean has showed is that 90 % of cyclical sub-industry groups are above their 10-day, their 20-day, their 50, 100, and 200-day. So it's all working, all these cyclical industries.
23:15What are the cyclical industries, you ask? I'm so glad you asked that question. Next chart. These are all areas that are highly sensitive to an improving economy, or at least a decent economy. me. We're talking about auto parts, casinos, home furnishing improvement and home building, like restaurants. It's all the stuff that people spend money on in good times and conversely pull back in bad times. It's all of the things that you would want to see working and they're all working. Here's the coup de grace. Next chart, please. So Dean is showing the green arrow is the S &P 500 when you have 90 % of cyclical sub-industry groups above every moving average.
24:00And if you look at the table on the right, great job, John. I'm glad you broke it out like this. If you look at like three months later, four months later, since 2009, there's not a lot of red in here, right? Like when all of these things are firing in recent and modern markets, they're generally right. The market is not always right. But when these things are all firing, it's full speed ahead maybe this is the time it breaks but two things first we have some guesses of who said so bullish it hurts in the chat we have a couple of guesses so my friend John Suarez says Jeremy Grantham said it see Paul Breezy one of the Najarian brothers I don't think so I would know I don't think that was them Chris Hayes It was not Dan Nathan Yeah, no shit I don't remember who said it But it's a great thing We should go look at But the point I wanted to make And we're going to hit this later Sean and I In our column for CNBC Pro today We're talking about material stocks And my framing of it is Last year was a mid-cycle Sort of market Financials outperforming almost everything Industrials like that's mid cycle.
25:21I think we're starting to pass the baton. And it doesn't mean we have that recession at the end, but like starting to pass the baton from mid cycle into late cycle. Late cycle is when the materials start roaring. You ever see, you ever see a chart of like Freeport, McMoran recently, holy shit. Like you saw what the oil stocks are doing. Exxon Mobil, a new record high today. We're seeing like the oil services. Like when you start seeing those cyclical groups, and then you start seeing like the materials catch on, that's when you know, like you're in not only a broadened market, but like you could have a couple of years of just like steady economic growth.
26:03And it doesn't have, you know, ooh, this will end badly. Okay, probably. But when? In the meanwhile - Yeah, of course it'll end badly. I think we're in a mid to late cycle portion of what we're looking at. So that's - All right, I found the clip. It was when Paul Richards, he was the UBS head of FX. Oh, I like that guy. It was in 2014. But the web is saying that John Najarian was the actual one that said it. I just remember the headline, So Bullish It Hurts, semi-colon Paul Richards. So I don't know who actually said it, but you remember that, right? Yeah. Paul Richards is a sweet guy. He was like this British gentleman who they would bring on.
26:42It was weird. He was like on every day for a few months. No. No, he's still British. Still British, but I haven't seen him on TV in a long time. I think he was at one of the wire houses, and he would come on almost every day and do a five-minute spiel on currencies, and then they would look at us on the desk and be like, so what's the trade? And I would just talk about whatever I wanted to talk about. I didn't even react to it because I don't do currencies. But he was a bright guy. I don't remember him saying, so bullish it hurts, but I think I'm going to steal it. It's a good one. It's a good one.
27:17So anyway, in conclusion, the stock market right now is working, and one day it won't, but right now it is. I just like that the conversation is not Microsoft every day. I love it. It's enough. More than enough. I love it. I love it. All right. Let's keep going. Oh, okay. Apple and Google have entered a multi-year deal so that Google's technology will power the Siri voice assistant reboot. So we're going to get a better Siri because Siri now is fairly awful. We're going to get like an AI powered Siri, which they promised us over a year ago, finally happening. And it seems like it's going to be the guts of it inside the wrapper will be Gemini.
28:15After careful evaluation, Apple determined that Google's AI technology provides the most capable foundation for Apple Foundation models and is excited about the innovative new experiences it will unlock for Apple users. Two companies said Monday in a joint statement, did Apple win the LLM war by not playing? The story is still being written. We'll see. Do the users give a shit if it's Google technology or Motorola technology? No. Inside of – do the users care what LLM Siri is running on top of or do the users just want Siri to be awesome? So I'm curious. I mean, yes, a rhetorical question. They want it to be awesome.
29:02I'm curious to know what the economics of this deal are. So does Google pay Apple$20 billion for Chrome to be the default browser? Is it$20 billion a year? It's some crazy number. Well, that was the deal. And I think the remedy is that now Apple has to make like DuckDuckGo be a menu option that people could have as their default search engine if they want it. Like it was about Chrome, the browser, and then it was also like – but Apple has Safari. So Chrome ostensibly competed with Safari. What it was really about was to be the default search inside of the iOS environment and in all the Apple apps because Apple doesn't do its own search.
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29:48And Google paid a lot of money for that. And as a result, every iOS user, a billion people, standardized on Google. It just became their go-to. And in return, Google spent all that money, but they got to a place where they knew everything that everyone was searching about. Oh, I'm sure. It was just brilliant. I'm sure it's a great deal. I'm sure Google is winning. And Apple's getting$20 billion. I wonder what the economics of this deal are like. I think for Apple, it's beside the point. I don't know that they need to tell Wall Street, like, look how much money Siri is making us. I just know that they have to cut chat GPT.
30:32I just mean like how much is Google paying Apple? Encroachment. What they're paying for the search is not immaterial. It's a lot of fucking money. So it could be another win for both. Yeah, no one will know. We'll never know. But I think like the mission critical aspect of this is to have a product that people rave about in the iOS ecosystem that's got an Apple wrapper around it. You use Siri a lot. I just, you know, I vent to it. I like, I don't even want an answer from it. Sometimes I just want to yell at something or someone. Siri is really perfect for that. I don't know that I get a ton of utility out of it other than connecting my phone calls.
31:13Like, hey, I don't want to say it because it'll start calling. Hey, blank, call Sprinkles. Call Blank, yeah, right. That's how, you know, call Batnick. Like, that's helpful for me. I don't, what else do I really do with Siri? Not much. I'd rather talk to ChatGPT, honestly. At least I get, like, some answers from that. One of the things with Siri that has to get fixed is you can't ask follow-up questions. So if you say like, hey, sir, I don't want to do it.
31:45Get me directions to that Chinese restaurant I went to last week. It may be able to do that. Maybe not, depending on if you used Apple Maps. And then if you're like. Dude, a thousand people listening are very happy you didn't just say that. Right. And then by the way, you have to be like, you'd be like, you'll try to be like, all right, and oh, what street is it on? Or can you call them so I can make sure they're open? And it's what? Like you have to start all over again every conversation, and that's the thing that has to get fixed. It seems so obvious and easy, and why haven't they fixed it yet?
32:23I really don't have the answer to that. But I do know that Apple is not thrilled with Johnny Ives' open AI device coming to market and then not having their solution in place. I'm so curious to see what that's going to be, the next form factor. It's a medallion. It's a medallion that you wear around your neck. Spoiler alert. It's literally, you will never get a date again so long as you're wearing that. Well, can you imagine? I'm married. Can you imagine? It's like wearing a wire. Walk into a room with a chat GPT device around your neck like an amulet. I don't know. Amulet? You know anyone in your life that's going to do that?
33:09It's hard at the school. You didn't see a picture of it? I don't know. We walk around with headphones. You didn't see a picture of it? No, I haven't seen it. Okay. I don't think it's for me. Moving on. All right. So Goldman has – that's it. I divested itself from all that nonsense distraction, going to Main Street, going to different verticals, consumer banking, like it was a bad experiment. And credit to them, it didn't work. They tried it. It didn't work. They came out alive, bigger and better. So the journal reported the deal that they did with Apple, they're expected to offload$20 billion of outstanding card balances at more than a billion discount.
33:53And the interesting thing is most of the time, that's actually sold at a premium because it's a good business. They say on average of 8 % discounts are rare. So they say the discount on this deal reflects a high exposure to subprime borrowers. And just the idea that Goldman is lending to subprime borrowers, I know it's like via Apple. It's just so far afield from Goldman Sachs. I mean, it's Goldman freaking Sachs. So they launched the card in 2019. A lot of fanfare, but the loss has started to grow in 2022. And they lost, I mean, holy shit. I didn't realize it was this bad. They lost more than$7 billion on a pre-tax basis since the beginning of 2020 on not just on this, but on its consumer lending business.
34:36Remember Green Sky? I can't remember who they sold that to. They had a General Motors program, credit card program that didn't go well. And sometimes businesses get distracted. They go into the wrong area. But credit to them. They were able to come out the other side. You want to know something funny? to us in 2020, in like the 2020s, it seemed so off-brand to see Goldman Sachs doing subprime lending, but that's literally the origin story of the firm. So they named their, I guess they had like an online bank slash robo-advisor called Marcus. Marcus. Right. So that was going to be like their consumer-facing business.
35:17That's not an accident that they chose to invoke the name of the founder for that product in the 1840s and 50s. Do you know who would give credit to Jews? Literally nobody. That's it. So like banking was for the upper classes who lived on the Upper East Side, who lived like, let's say, north of 60th Street, and the animals living in Paradise Square and all the stuff you saw in Gangs of New York and people living along the river, people living in tenements and tents and in dungeons underneath buildings. There was no consumer credit for those people. And a couple of enterprising, mostly Jewish lenders came into that market.
36:06The Lehman Brothers were among this group and Marcus Goldman. And he walked around the Jewish ghettos of lower Manhattan and he made loans. And it was like handshake loans. but that's the origin of Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs does not have the same origin story as like J.P. Morgan slash Morgan Stanley. These are very different segments that they were born to serve. So it's not really off brand for Goldman to be in that business in the grand scheme of history. But yeah, like in the modern era, Goldman Sachs is for rich people. We flagged it in real time. This didn't feel right. It was weird. Dumb shit.
36:49Even if it works, what are you getting out of this? And we also didn't even mention in this time period, it was the United purchase. They were trying all sorts of shit that didn't work out. Right. Now, Solomon survived it. He was on thin ice. Allegedly. Bill Cohen was writing about it. Yeah. And Charlie Gasparino. Charlie was quoting all these Goldman partners who weren't getting their profit distributions. And they were furious. And he was DJing to boot? He was DJing COVID parties in the Hamptons. It's like, yeah, yeah, yeah. No, it's like a pandemic, but this is East Hampton. Fuck you. Like, you know, like Leo is here.
37:31I'm DJing. Like, it was like that kind of thing. I thought that was kind of cool. I admire the fact that he survived. And you know what? We lionized these technology guys for like these pivots and trying new things and like making huge gambles and putting their foot on the pedal. I think the takeaway here is like the standard is different when you run a systemically important financial institution. A little bit of innovation is okay. But the types of swings that Solomon was taking are not historically rewarded by Wall Street and by the investor class. We don't want to see that much innovation at a Goldman Sachs.
38:14Yeah, it's unusual. I think it goes to the power of the brand, right? Like the fact that their customers were able to look past, like the customers that matter, their investment banking customers. That's it, right? That's who matters. Hedge funds, private equity, corporations, the people that look at Goldman Sachs as Goldman Sachs, like it's meaningful to them. They got over it. Like, ah, they did a credit card with Apple, who cares? Let's put this chart up. Okay, go ahead. Well, this is the drawdowns. This is the Solomon era. So obviously, like 2020, you don't look at that drawdown of 45 % and say that has anything to do with David Solomon.
38:57No. So he – right. There's nothing to do with him. So he came in on October 1, 2018. So this chart goes back to like the summer of 2018. But this stuff in 2022, this stock had the same drawdown as like a MAG-7. And it stayed down for two years. A little bit of a scare this year, this past year from the tariff stuff. But this thing is at an all-time high. Is it a$900 stock now? Looks pretty unbelievable. The cumulative return for Goldman Sachs since July 1, 2018 is 403%, which is 24 % annualized. Over that same period, the S &P 500 cumulative is up 187. So Goldman is more than double or 15 % a year S &P.
39:51The XLF is only up 136 % in the age of David Solomon. So that's 12 % annualized. So Goldman Sachs is double the XLF on an average annual basis. So if you're one of these pricks who was giving Charlie Gasparino quotes about how horrible David Solomon is two and a half years ago, probably not using your real name, you have my permission to apologize to the man. Because this is as good as any. I don't know if Morgan Stanley is much better. Maybe it's a little bit better. This is pretty damn good. I think you'd have to agree, yeah? Yes. Okay. All right, the Jay Powell thing. We're not going to get political here, but I do want to play this.
40:40John, hit it. Good evening. On Friday, the Department of Justice served the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening a criminal indictment related to my testimony before the Senate Banking Committee last June. That testimony concerned, in part, a multi-year project to renovate historic Federal Reserve office buildings. Traitor! I have deep respect for the rule of law and for accountability in our democracy. No one, certainly not the chair of the Federal Reserve, is above the law. But this unprecedented action should be seen in the broader context of the administration's threats and ongoing pressure.
41:22This new threat is not about my testimony last June or about the renovation of the Federal Reserve buildings. It is not about Congress's oversight role. The Fed, through testimony and other public disclosures, made every effort to keep Congress informed about the renovation project. Those are pretexts. The threat of criminal charges is a consequence of the Federal Reserve setting interest rates based on our best assessment of what will serve the public, rather than following the preferences of the President. This is about whether the Fed will be able to continue to set interest rates based on evidence and economic conditions, or whether instead monetary policy will be directed by political pressure or intimidation.
42:06I have served at the Federal Reserve under four administrations, Republicans and Democrats alike. In every case, I have carried out my duties without political fear or favor, focused solely on our mandate of price stability and maximum employment. Public service sometimes requires standing firm in the face of threats. I will continue to do the job the Senate confirmed me to do, with integrity and a commitment to serving the American people. Thank you. Lock him up. All right. Takes. Give me takes. From me? You want takes? What are your statue? you uh my take is how could there be how could there be any other take than the rational one here this is what do you think is the rational take here i don't think that we should be using this oh much overt political pressure to influence the head of the federal reserve how could there be any other opinion i i don't care who you voted for okay um i don't want to be called MAGA Josh in the comments this time, but here's an alternative.
43:18Here's an alternative opinion. And I'm not saying that I like this kind of thing. All right. But why does it cost two and a half billion dollars to renovate the Fed, the Fed's headquarters in Washington, D.C.? Nothing, but no offense to Washington, D.C. I've been there. It's very nice. Nothing in that city should be worth two and a half billion dollars. No offense. No offense. Why is that the why is the dollar amount that the federal reserves headquarters is costing and why is the fed putting itself in this position of having to answer for a dollar amount like that okay that's it all not is not a is not a that's a take that's a take i mean you didn't tell me to come with takes i just thought that we were just going to call out the fact that what the what do you think we're what are we doing what are we doing here all right um a lot of republicans agree with you mike and a lot of people that...
44:07Allow me to go Stephen A for a minute. Hold on. I got it. I got it. Do you want to take... No, I'm just kidding. Go. Keep talking. A lot of the people that normally just like whatever the administration says, they just repeat it. Here's Senator Tom Tillis, Republican. If there were any remaining doubt whether advisors within... Is he... Wait a minute. He's a Republican in name only, my friend. No, he's not a Republican, is he? Hold on. Before I butcher this, because I had a couple of things to say. Yeah, Republican. He's a mom-dawning Republican. He's a rhino. If there are any remaining doubt whether advisors within the Trump administration are actively pushing to end the independence of the Federal Reserve, there should now be none.
44:49It is now the independence and credibility of the Department of Justice that are in question. I will oppose the confirmation of any nominee for the Fed, including the upcoming Fed chair vacancy, until this legal matter is fully resolved. Well, Tom, I hope you enjoy Guantanamo. Yeah, this guy's fired. Enjoy your time in El Salvador. All right. I think the down-the-middle take is that there are people in the Trump administration that wanted to do this, but not everybody in the administration. Trump said he wasn't even aware of this. Correct. Now, you might say that's nonsense. Which means it's going to quietly go away, my guess.
45:31What is the point? He's out in May. Is it retribution? He's got two meetings left. What are we doing? Now, if this is really about fraud, like building fraud, I guess there's a percentage chance that that's really what instigated this. Yeah. I don't know. I'm not in the room. Allegedly, Besant has been in his ear saying maybe let's not do this. I bet you he didn't put it that way. I bet you he put it like this hurts you. This doesn't – let's not do this for the sanctity of the institution. Let's not do this because, yo, there's an affordability problem. Republicans are losing on that issue. You don't want to look like you're meddling with the Fed.
46:24It's not going to help the cause of what we're saying is important here. So I think it – but I think it – let's put this graphic up. Did you law at this? I stand with Jerome Powell. Who's in this? Statue of Liberty, Churchill, Abe Lincoln. Is it Tom Brady in the back? I think it's Aaron Hernandez. Oh, it's Aaron. I think it's 81. God.
46:56Squidward? That's the bad boss in Spongebob, right? That's his name? All right. I lolled. I posted this in July. I was totally joking. I did this as what's known as a diptych. It's two images juxtaposed with one another. I thought this was funny. I never thought it would come true. So I would say the GOP is definitely worried about getting hammered in the midterms. Not Trump as much, but like the people that are actually up for election or reelection. They're losing on the affordability issue amongst independents. That's not my opinion. That's what the polls say. And, you know, they could point to stuff like gases,$3 and change at the pump and a national average.
47:43They are getting encouraging stuff out of the housing market, especially rents are coming down pretty substantially. Like they have some stuff in their favor, but people are just still pissed about prices and health care. And like it's just not going away, which is why you see the spaghetti cannon firing. Things like 10 % cap on credit card interest rates, the mortgage thing. thing. We're going to buy 200 billion worth of mortgages to push down the cost of a mortgage, which I'm actually in favor of. I think they should have done it five years ago. But you're seeing a lot of this kind of like populist stuff being floated out there as kind of their answer to like, what are we going to say in the midterms that people are still mad about affordability?
48:28Half the Republicans are saying there is no affordability crisis. They're saying it's a Democrat hoax. Things are great. The other half are saying, no, there is an affordability crisis, but it's Biden's fault and we're fixing it. So those are like kind of the two opposing ideas within the Republican Party. And then the White House is basically saying we need lower rates to fight inflation, which I'm not 100 % sure how that works. But I think what all these things add up to, you want to be in material stocks because you're getting a new Fed chair in May, and they're going to run it hot. I don't know how hot.
49:09I don't know if they're going a 2 % interest rates just to show that they have the power to do it, but they're going to push rates down. This is a Michael Hartnett chart. Put this up. He put this out in December. This is showing 10-year commodity returns versus bond returns. and I think the current rate of 10-year commodity returns versus bond returns as of last month is 8.2 % average annual, which is a high dating back to the late, early 1980s. Is that what that looks like? So it's very rare to, or at least dating back to 05, it's very rare to see 10-year historical returns of commodities beating bonds to this extent is the point that hartnett is making what do you think about that idea which part like a new bull market a new bull market for commodities as a result of the economy running hot yeah you know it's so market getting ahead of that yes and i think it's really fascinating that the biggest commodity of them all is not participating like at all energy oil it's not moving 60 plus today starting to percolate um but yeah it's all working you're both on what energy stocks my best stocks the market list has seven or eight energy stocks on it it's the first time and uh i bought i told you i bought exxon um which we talked about a couple weeks ago um i think i think this the sector is just due like i know that's not how works, but it sort of does.
50:50I also, we have this home builder chart. If we get a housing cycle, material stocks are going to continue to rip because copper and companies that do everything from sheetrock to concrete to like, it's just, it's all, it all becomes one trade. And the XHB love that mortgage news, what Trump wants to do on mortgages, which I think is really a smart move. And if you just sort of picture like a new housing cycle started, it's like yet one more reason that you're going to want to be in these commodity stocks. Josh, do you have a chart? You have a chart? You have chart software up on your screen? I want you to punch in a thicker.
51:33Punch in LOW and zoom out a little bit. Normally, we talk about Home Depot when we're talking about the segment. Home Depot is the premier brand. Lowe's looks so much better. like look look at this chart this is going to pop up on your list very soon lows it might be on the list already lows is roaring roaring it's right uh yeah it's got a lid on it 285 so hard hard resistance around here but if it gets going i mean blue skies there's no there's no sellers there's no higher prices yeah 22 multiple about the same as the market you know it's interesting Look at Home Depot contrast that. Home Depot looks like shit in comparison.
52:17I mean, it's still a lot of rip over the last couple of sessions. The difference between these two is one of them makes the case to Wall Street that it's better in the professional market and another is better in the retail market. I think that's Home Depot is that one. No, I think it's the other way around. Okay. I mean, they both serve both, so who the hell knows. Can I show you some of these materials charts that we wrote up? Here's Martin Marietta. Let me see. So this is a$40 billion market cap. This is aggregates, concrete, cement, you name it. Like this is an obvious breakout. We wrote it up today.
52:51Vulcan Materials, VMC. This is also$40 billion, same chart. You can obviously see this consolidation period being burst through like the Kool-Aid man. You could own both those stocks. The bigger one is the CRH, which is like globally, like it's a bigger company, bigger market cap. I don't know any of these names. This is less well known to casual investors. I think more people know Vulcan. But these are all breaking out, and these are all very much breaking out because we're probably running things hot, and the price of all of these materials is going higher. All right. Last thing, the Delta news.
53:32So the CEO is saying 20 % jump in earnings for 2026. And margin expansion. It's unbelievable. Yeah, and they're now doing more business in first class in dollar terms than they are for the entirety of the main cabin. Are you surprised by that? No. That's as of Q4. I'm not surprised. Not surprised. No. Okay. Ed Bastian said Delta sits at the top of the K in the so-called K-shaped economy with more revenue coming from higher spending customers. Quote, we're looking at our seat growth in the coming year. effectively none of our growth in seats will be in the main cabin. Virtually all will be in the premium sector.
54:14Make the whole plane first class. No main cabin. Do it for me. Main cabin ticket revenue fell 7 % in Q4. Premium ticket revenue rose 9%. So premium is 5.7 billion worth of ticket sales and main cabin is 5.62%. So coach is now the smaller part of the ticket sales that they're doing. You think that reverses anytime soon? What are your thoughts? No, I don't think that it reverses anytime soon. And given that foreign travel was a headwind in 2025, the fact that they produced record revenue, record earnings, they did so in Q4, it's remarkable. It really goes to show how the top of the K is doing. And also, they said that they are seeing an acceleration so far in the first quarter.
55:07So no surprise there. We know the top of the K is doing very well and it's showing in the numbers. Are you an airline snob? Yes. You know I'm a Delta guy. You're a Delta guy. I think I am too, but I'm really a JetBlue guy, but I'd say I'm a Delta guy. I love Delta. I really do. And it's noticeable. It's not too late to switch. Why are the planes cleaner? What the hell is wrong with these other airlines? Why is the plane physically presentably cleaner? I don't know what they're doing that's so much different than the competition, but they are smoking them. I've taken a lot of flights over the last couple of years, and I've had one lousy experience that wasn't their fault.
55:43It was weather-related. Like, not a bad experience. So we've been over this. The reason I'm JetBlue is because I have four family members taking planes all over the place, and we need to move miles betwixt each other, and Delta doesn't let you do that. Can I tell you something? They let me do that. I would never get bored of JetBlue flight again. Drain your miles on JetBlue. Do not pay for another JetBlue flight. Drain your miles. Like Starbucks points, just drain them. I'll put the Band-Aid off. Do not pay for another flight on JetBlue. Drain the miles and then go to Delta. Yeah, but I still need that ability.
56:13I need to move things. It's not accumulated miles. If my kid flying to college cancels her flight, I have that in the bank. And if I need to shift that to myself, I can. No, I get it. And vice versa. Drain the bank. Can't do it with Delta. Drain the bank. Drain the bank. All right. I think you're missing one. I won't do that. Okay. Make the case. You're up. All right. I'm going to make the case. What case am I making, Josh? I want to say... Oh, dude. I got stopped out of... I see you're doing software. I got stopped out of Adobe today. So I whacked off... I knew it was going to happen. I whacked off Adobe yesterday.
56:48And I want to say this. So no harm, not foul. I lost 2 % on the trade. No big deal. Yeah. We respect trends, you and I. And every once in a while, we get cute. But when you are bottom fishing, you have to have stops. You have to position size it appropriately because the market is usually right. There's a big difference between buying a gap down when something gaps down 20 % and you just say, overreaction, force on, I'm taking the other side. Different. Very different versus because gaps get filled on both sides, upside and downside. We saw that in Chipotle, a stock that I hated last quarter. Guess what?
57:22I'm an idiot. The gap got filled. But there's a very, very big difference between a gap down and a persistent bleed. When you see a persistent bleed that is just down, down, down, down, down, you're probably wrong and the market is probably right. That has to be your default setting. Now, we might be setting up for an amazing trade in the future where Adobe might look ridiculously cheap today. That's not my game, okay? I don't think it's your game either. That's possible. But try it on, please. Could not agree with you more. Okay, so I'm looking at an equal basket of Adobe, Workday, Intuit, Salesforce, and ServiceNow.
57:58And some of these are great businesses, but guess what? Who gives a shit? Whack them out. Whack them all out. Whack them off. The stocks are not working. In fact, how do they - Whack those stocks off of your screen as soon as you can and revisit them when they give you a reason to. So glad. So I'll revenge trade Adobe, but guess what? Not until I see a convincing sign of a bottom. See ya. I will revisit you at a later point. Okay. But here's the other point that I want to make. I am now rooting for it to go to zero. You know me. So, okay. Did you know that the Russell 2000 – damn it, I forgot to put this chart in here.
58:39Hold on. What did Sean and Matt say to me? The Russell 2000 has underperformed the S &P 500. No, I don't have this. Chart off, please. Hold on. Bear with me. For eight of the last nine years. I'm double-checking because I thought that was right, but it seems hard to believe. Eight of the last nine years, it's underperformed. How, Sway? It's just a hyperscale of the earth. That's really all it is. I think this might be the year, Josh. I know I just said, like, don't fight the trend. Last year? No. The Russell did like 10%. But this is not – the bleeding has stopped. Chart on. This is the ratio.
59:21This has turned. We're turning up. Yeah. We're turning up. You know what's different? You know what the problem is? Chart off. Last week we talked about a phrase from Semblis, the internal logic of the market. how basically the highest margin, the best ROE stocks are also the ones with the best performance and the highest multiples. A small cap universe is like a 5 % profit margin and the S &P is like 14.5, not 15. And they're turning up. I'm making the case. If they have a boost to profit margins, they will be rated higher. Yeah. So I think we can see it. I think you can be right. We can see it.
1:00:04All right. All right, mystery chart. So we like the Russell. I like the Russell. I do. All right, mystery chart. I left the price on because I don't want to make it so difficult. This is a Dow component, blue chip stock, true blue chip stock, like a real blue, not a recent, just a long-term blue chip stock. And I'm showing you five years, no monthly moving average bullshit. I'm giving you an RSI and a price and I just want to know one thing from you before you guess it are you a buyer are you kidding me
1:00:44generational resistance is now being broken correct yeah no this is going so these are weekly candles I think this goes right this year goes to 150 yeah I agree can you give me anything yeah check the live chat no I'm not going to cheat I don't want to do that. Okay.
1:01:07Okay. Here's something. There's been a recent geopolitical event that this stock reacted to.
1:01:20That's a pretty good hint. I mean, is it an oil stock? I don't know what else it would be. They're screaming in the chat. I'm the biggest idiot. Yeah. Hey, you know what? It's a little bit harder to do it live. Screaming. A geopolitical. So is this Venezuela? No, this can't be Venezuela. A geopolitical. Is it Exxon? I mean, isn't that the only energy stock in the down? Look at you. You got it. You got it. You got it. I need to do it. I was like overthinking it. Okay. Give me the reveal. All right. You'd buy the shit out of this stock right now, right? Not only would I. I'm going to get along one of these names tomorrow.
1:01:53I'm in at 119. I'm thinking about averaging up. I have completely drank my own Kool-Aid. Yeah, this is going so much higher. Yep. Are you kidding me? Best stocks in the market. We wrote it up a week and a half, two weeks ago maybe. I forget. It all blends together. But this is one of my energy stocks. And, man, does it look good. Unreal. And, yeah, just shut up and buy it. It reacted to Venezuela. They have no business in Venezuela, but it reacted because they all did. All right, guys. Thank you so much for tuning in to the live version of the show. Those of you out in Spotify and Apple podcast land, we appreciate you.
1:02:25If you're watching this on YouTube, thank you so much. and we love all your comments, all the likes, all the subscriptions and guys, especially the reviews. Review the show. Like if you're into it, that's the best way to tell the algorithm that this is something that's valuable and more people will join our gang. So please, go ahead and do that. Tomorrow is Wednesday, which means all new edition of my favorite podcast, Animal Spirits with Michael and Ben and then we'll do Ask the Compound Thursday. Wednesday? When do we even? I don't even know. Wednesday. Wednesday. It's moved before. It's not our fault.
1:03:08Ask the Compound with Duncan and Ben. Always a blast. We get to answer live questions from you guys. That is a special event every week when they do it. And you guys can get your questions answered live during Ask the Compound by Ben and Duncan. And then Friday, all new edition of your compound and friends fix. And a very special guest this week. We're so excited to run it back with him. And you'll all find out who that is soon. So, guys, thanks for tuning in. God bless. Good night.
1:04:07But what I wanted to tell you, my daughter has a very good study. A semester, a laptop, a software, a computer, a internet. So a master is really cheap. Ach, say her, she can get that back. Yeah, you mean from the Steuer to set up, right? But she doesn't pay. No matter what, Verlust-Vortrag. Make it very simple with Wieso Steuer? And when she works, it's Kaching! That's it? Safe! Wieso Steuer? Get your money back! Now to try it!
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