The Craziest Week Ever

26:09Like, look, I mean, it's so even Republicans, 42 percent are now uneasy about their own financial situation. Independent, 68 percent. But wait, Josh, listen. So so for independence, it was negative 25 on December 8th. Yeah. It's now negative 41. So it's measuring the difference between uneasy and confident. And it's going the wrong direction big time. Yeah. And one of the biggest aspects of his victory last fall was amongst independents. So I think that this poll is probably like the most substantial political calculus or the most substantial piece of evidence that from a political standpoint, what he's doing is not helping him at all.

26:54It's economic, not political. I mean, of course, it's political, but it's economic in the sense that when people feel uneasy and not confident, they pull back, they wait. They're not going to do the spending. Corporate CFOs, COs, how do they plan with such uncertainty? And of course, so yeah, we can get these resolutions, but there will be a slowdown. Right. And we will see it. We will see the manifestation of that in the upcoming earnings calls. Oh, I agree. I can't wait to get it over with. But I can't wait because I don't think there's a CEO in America who has this spine or probably the stupidity right now to go out and offer a rosy view.

27:27And I don't know politically where all the CEOs stand, but I'm going to bet that's pretty mixed too. So that's where you're going to see the confluence of like the real economy part, right? Hitting, hitting just the businesses. Yeah, but they also won't go hard the other way. No one will because there's no certainty. Right. But there's no, no, I don't think that at all. I just think they'll say we can't offer future guidance. I don't know. We can't offer forward guidance. We're in a very uncertain time. I don't think there's any finger pointing. But I think there were CEOs who were really happy to criticize Biden era policies.

27:58Publicly on their calls. I can't think of. Yeah, who cares? It's just Joe Biden. and nobody wants to do that with Trump. Fair enough, but I don't think you need to. My point is only, I don't think we're going to see, regardless of party, any CEO, regardless of geography, regardless of business, I don't think any CEO is going to have the guts right now to go out and offer a rosy view. There's simply too much uncertainty. Yeah, I agree. And you know how the market, it's been for the past, what, year? The actual numbers from the current quarterly report don't matter. It's all about the forward guidance.

28:26It's all about the forward guidance. We're about to get jack in terms of forward guidance. Yeah, I agree. I think that's the next big risk to the market is polled forecasts. John, put up Jenny's Polymarket chart. So this stuff's really interesting to me because these prediction markets weren't meaningful up until the last year or so. And I think since the election, we're giving them way more credence than we used to. So according to Polymarket, and this is not a ton of money, but it's also not$0, 61 % chance now of a recession. And notably, that's up 42 % from the start of the year. Right. But more importantly, what's so interesting is seeing it spike basically on April 3rd.

29:05Yeah. Right. Which we knew because we're sitting out there and I was about to once again go to AI and say, hey, can you remind me of which strategists increased their recession expectations yesterday? And then I thought, no, this might actually be more interesting because this is going to encapsulate that. So rather than saying, and Goldman increased it to 60 % and JP Morgan increased it to 60%. So it's pretty wild to see it follow the market right here where you saw it jump, plunge yesterday for those few minutes when the market was up 10 % and then go right back to today. Is this basically an inverse mood ring for the stock market?

29:42Is that, like, what are these people making bets on if not just watching the markets? I don't think it's sophisticated. Look how small the dollar amount is. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. No, I just think directionally it's interesting. Even in the presidential election, the numbers weren't huge at all. There was that one French trader who traded this, but directionally you could watch it and kind of see it mimic what we were hearing in terms of ebbs and flows. To me, it just consolidates what we're hearing. So I could have given you a really boring chart of Goldman was at 25 % a week and a half ago, now they're at 60.

30:15Goldman was at 25, or J.P. Morgan was at 25 % a week and a half ago, now they're at 60. or you can just look at this and this is just reflective of what we're hearing broadly. I had this thought that the bond market is really powerful and that's not an original thought. I think everyone, there's a famous James Carville quote about how much more powerful the bond market is than anybody else. Do you believe in that? Yeah, I think so. Like after this week, you kind of have to, right? You kind of have to. I think what's been hard is that for what, a decade, the bond market's been kind of quiet and in the background.

30:49It hasn't had a heavy impact. Rates have been so low. And so now we're adjusting again to just what that power is and how it works. Yeah. Yeah. Especially the treasury market, like in particular, and the fact that it's so globalized. And when you're taking on opponents from other countries, they have levers to pull. Right. Because one of the things that Besant was saying is we're not worried about the stock market. Stock markets had a good run. Right. Watch the bond market see us making progress on things like cutting costs and lowering deficits. Well, the bond market stuck up the middle finger to all of that.

31:24Right. And it got everyone's attention. And I thought it was interesting because the rhetoric that I heard today was, oh, we had this wildly successful bond auction yesterday. All these people showed up. It was so successful. And I'm thinking to myself, well, yesterday wasn't the 10-year at$440? You know, wouldn't you have wanted to do that auction on Friday when the 10-year actually touched$390? I wouldn't consider selling debt at 440 when you could have sold it 10 plus percent less five days ago successful. You know, there's research that shows that every, what is it, I might mess this up, but like every basis point in bond yields is equivalent to$5 billion of additional interest payments.

32:02That year? Yeah, that year. Right. It's crazy. Yeah. So if you can cut the 10-year by 50 basis points, you save$500 billion. I think these are the numbers. Or maybe I've got it a little bit messed up. But what it was is basically if you could cut 50 basis points out of the 10-year and you're issuing debt there, you're saving$500 billion a year in interest payments. So what happened this? We went the other way. Right. And then we're calling it a victory because like foreigners showed up to buy the bonds. Yeah, we just added$500 billion of interest payments by that logic. Right. Successful would have been, you know, sell the debt on Friday.

32:31Yeah. Let's talk about yesterday's reaction. Where were you when you blinked on Stockport? Yeah, where were you? Were you in front of this screen? Yeah, no. I was on a call. And I looked up and I'm like, what just happened? Oh, my God. Who were you on the phone with? A client? Just a client. But it was like down three. Calls like half an hour. I got to go put on some hedging trades. Right. I mean, what do you do? Yeah. What do you do? All right. Did you believe it? So you see it go crazy. And then what do you do? You go to Twitter immediately? I went to Twitter immediately. That's what everyone did.

33:02Yeah, and do you know what I wrote? Oh, you had a tweet ready? Yeah, of course. No, ready. This is what I wrote. Can I swear on the show or do I need to bleep it myself? I don't give a f***. You said whatever you want. I just wrote on Twitter, bat shit cray cray. That's your big swear? What could you say? I don't know. I thought you couldn't swear at all. I thought you were about to drop an MS. No. All right. So, like, I think there was, like, seven stocks that were down on the day. Yeah. John, throw this trough. I think I had all seven of them in my portfolio. No, just kidding. So, the biggest winners on the day were Microchip.

33:31Right. Oh, which I was looking at. Right, which was up 27%. Wait, what? Yeah. Why did it go up 27 %? Why is that the biggest winner of the day? Was it down a ton? It was down a ton, probably 40 or 50 % in the past few days because it has both recession risk and tariff risk. Hold on. But it's both. You were buying it that morning? No, no, no, I wasn't. I was researching it. I've been researching it for three days. Oh, well, throw that out. Too late now. No, no. It's down 15 or 16 % today. Okay. It's exactly to where it was when I told you I first put the information into Grok and said, you know, the preferreds or the commercial preferreds trading at 43-ish and the stocks at 40.

34:04So United and Delta were both up a billion points. Look at Warner Brothers. So Warner Brothers is interesting. Warner Brothers was the 10th biggest gain up 20 % on the day. I think today it's down like - A lot. 20 % again? It's down 13. It's down 13%. I wonder why. Yeah, why on that? Well, I'll tell you why. Why? Because China just announced that they are going to stop a certain number of films being shown there. Warner Brothers needs Superman to open big in China to justify the level of expense of making some of their 10 pole films for this year. So that's the answer why. But that's the interesting and hard thing about this.

34:42So what we did right off the bat, right, was go back through the entire portfolio starting on Thursday and Friday and reassessing where the risk is. So in the equity income strategy, for example, there's 36 stocks and we carved them into three buckets. High tariff risk, high recession risk, resilient. And one of the challenges is all the knock-ons, right? The third and fourth derivatives, which is Warner Brothers. Wouldn't you innately say, oh, there's no tariff risk there? Oh, right. Well, I think the only way to assess tariff risk at this point is to say, what percentage of this company's revenues come from China?

35:17But in that case, yes. But for example, I own Western Union in the portfolio too. Only 37 % of those revenues are here in the US. but it's very, very low. No, but I think China specific. Yes. Not the whole world. Fair enough. I'm just saying like, there's still some cross-border transactions that aren't, you know, that aren't going to be. Jenny, if we keep 145 % tariff on China for two more weeks, some of the stocks become uninvestable. For sure. Okay. And microchip might. Because US casino operators with properties in Macau, good f***ing luck. Win. Nike will roll back over. Apple be awful. Like Tesla, huge China risk.

36:03Actually, maybe the most, other than Nike and Apple, Tesla might have the most acute China risk on the board. So I think it's like at this point, all right, he's gonna negotiate with all these countries, Australia, Europe, that's great. But like, I think it's now zeroing in on US versus China. I think you're right. So let me say a few more things about yesterday's rally. So just green everywhere. John, throw this up. Uh, just, I mean, honestly, a day like we, like, uh, we've seen once or twice before, Josh, you said it was what the 10th, the 10th largest, uh, S and P day ever. The second largest NASDAQ day ever you had from bespoke that the 14 day RSI had its biggest one day jump ever.

36:41Um, I mean, these look fake. So, but here's the thing, needless to say, needless to say, this is not good. This does not have happened in a healthy market. You got the best days after the worst days. So Grant Hawkridge from All-Star Charts has a great table showing, well, what happens after some of the best days? And it's not great. Like, it's really not. John, chart 11-2, please. If you go out, let's say, if you go out one month, it's positive 68 % of the time. You go out three months, it's 52%. Wait, can I ask you a question? Positive 68 % of the time sounds like just the regular average of any day.

37:16But my point, it's not an all-clear signal. Right, right. So you have the worst loss was 20%. Like there's been massive losses after massive up days. It is not necessarily marked the bottom by any stretch of the imagination. So, right. So it's not a particularly high hit rate buying after a huge one-day rally. It's not. There's all sorts of technical data that you could look at. Like, well, anytime the VIX has been over 50 for a week, it's always up a year later. Like you could pick and choose what you want to look at. But in the short term, this is not good. Okay. In the short term. And that's always an interesting conversation too, right?

37:50which is what term should people be focusing on? And, you know, should we be focusing on? Because if you look at this chart one year out, it's all green except for September 2008. So that's the point, Jenny, you're right. It's 95 % positive one year later, which is a very high hit rate because the normal is 75%. But the point that I'm making is there has been historically on average a lot of pain between now and a year. So you have to survive, right? Like you have to be able to survive. Yeah, I don't think anyone would say this is not a good buying opportunity. I think the debate, and I had this debate on air with Stephanie today, it's just like, is this the bottom?

38:28Nobody thinks so. Nobody knows, but nobody thinks so. But I also think that's a harder assessment today than it has been in past times. And I'll tell you why. Because there's such a wild divergence right now, more than there ever has been, I think, between where different stocks stand relative to their highs. And this goes to the concentration of the mag seven. You know, last year you had, what was it? Mag seven. I'm going to totally screw this up, but like mag seven up 40 % balance of the S &P essentially flat for the year, right? So as Josh and Josh, you said this. Big AI, big AI rally. But you said this on air the other day.

39:05You're like, there is an unprecedented number of companies that are already down 50 % from their highs. Yeah. And because beneath the surface, there's such incredible distortion and dispersion. I don't think, you know, if we're looking at that chart, all you can talk about is buying the market. There's so much else to buy. Well, this year the MAG7s look worse than the market. Yeah. But again, arbitrary time period. This year is three months and 10 days. I understand. So it's such a short period. What are we really looking at? Yeah, you're right. You're 100 % right. Yesterday was the best day ever for the MAG7 because so much of their revenue comes from abroad.

39:41But to the point that Josh just made, it was at the bottom. ramp capital did a did a post a poll yesterday 6369 votes nice so quite a bit of votes 70 % of the people said no well though i mean it's a lot of people it's a lot of people but like when would that ever be when would that ever be everyone saying it's the bottom never it would never happen i'll never forget when we were with uh dan guy and danny yeah in december 2020 or Maybe it was October. It was right near the bottom. And I said - It was December of 21. So the market had bottomed five weeks prior. 22. 22. 22. The market had bottomed five or six weeks prior.

40:25And I said, show of hands, who thinks that was a bottom? Nobody. Nobody. Yeah, but that's right, the buy sign. When I worked for Laszlo Berini, do you guys remember him? Yeah, of course. Okay, so I worked for Laszlo Berini as an intern in 1996. And one of the things he taught us interns was the biggest contrary indicator where the sentiment of AAII, American Association of Independent Investors. So Michael, I put up a Twitter poll too. It only got 660 responses or something, but I put it up on Tuesday night. And I said, it looks like, you know, we're down 18.9%. Futures make it look like we'll hit an official bear market tomorrow morning.

41:04What do you think the next move is from here? Plus 10%, minus 10%. Everyone said minus? 66 % said minus. Yeah. And I was going to say, that's surprisingly encouraging to me. So I think we look at these things and I take them as a contrary indicator. But again, this is a weird time that we're in. It's not market dynamics. The problem with those sentiment polls is that it mirrors everything else in society. Everything has just gone parabolic. And sentiment around everything has just – like the White Lotus just ended. people are like ripping their clothes off it's like alright it was just okay it was not a great season but if you're a fan of the White Lotus and you're not disappointed then it's the greatest thing that ever happened and there's like very few people that are down the middle that are just like alright it was good it wasn't the greatest thing I've ever seen if you watch influencers on Instagram and TikTok the restaurant influencers it's the greatest slice of pizza in the world.

42:09Of course it is. It's the best steak I've ever had. Because are you going to get eyeballs who are saying like, eh, it was okay. But so my, so what I'm, I think what I think is that that's what sentiment is now, period. And so stock market sentiment is extreme all the time. There is no down the middle. It's just like, oh my God, I'm so bearish, it's about to crash or this is the best time ever to be invested. And I just don't, I don't know if it's as useful is when people in general were more calm and measured with their takes. That's a good take. I think that's right. But I think that one of the things that you can measure is our flows.

42:45So people are like, oh, we need to see retail capitulate. Guess what? The Vanguard investors will never capitulate. So if you're looking for them, you're looking at the wrong place. They will never capitulate. This is the shit that we need to see cool off before you could say, okay, it's over. This sort of things. This is from Tom Serafagus. Seven straight weeks of inflows into leveraged long ETFs. These people are crazy. That needs to get cooked. Right. You want to see that go decidedly negative. I mean, come on. Right, that needs to be like 2022 when you saw ARK just finally flush out the riffraff.

43:18So the excess speculation, that sort of stuff you need to see cool off. All right, so - Wait, can we just do a couple of stock charts real quick? Where do you want to go? Tesla. So that huge rally, quote unquote, huge rally, I think the stock went up 50 points. Dude, it was like 20 something percent. What do you mean, quote unquote? It was a huge rally. But what's so crazy is it's still contained. I'm showing you five day chart. It's still contained within this band of that's how wild the market overall is, that that huge rally is still relatively contained. Let's do Apple. You see what I mean?

43:59because it's a huge comeback for Apple yesterday. I think it was up 16 % on the day, which is, it's the biggest market cap stock in the world going up 16%. I don't know how much money it went up in market cap, but it's an enormous number, but it's still like relatively contained within the context of the sell-off that we're in. So I thought that was interesting. All right, Jenny, I know that you are a bottom-up investor. You do your research, you're an earnings person. and I think one of the, one of the, actually, you know what? No, we're going to do this insider trading question. Yeah, let's put a, sorry.

44:33All right, go ahead. Put a pin in that. Was yesterday the Super Bowl of insider trading in Washington? Sure felt like it, didn't it? It was pretty disappointing. So he did something so brilliant. I'm not going to assume the worst. I'm not going to assume he set people up to do an insider trade. But I acknowledge that it's conceivable. And by the way, both sides do this shit and everyone hates it. Yesterday was really extreme. Like nobody wants to see Pelosi racking up gains either. All right. So let me just say that and get that out of the way. However, he did something really brilliant. Just in case somebody was going to trade on what he was about to do, he tweeted it.

45:10Buy. So now everyone has plausible denier. What? The president said to buy stocks. Look, he said it at 9 a.m. I bought it at 11. Right. All right. So let's put that aside. I'm assuming there's going to be a congressional investigation. I don't know. Why are you assuming that? Because they said it. Oh, OK. So I don't know if the SEC will cooperate or I have no idea. I'm not a legal expert here. But I think that's like part of the problem also is just the fact that everyone is like, yeah, that probably happened. Yeah. I don't know if we would have been like that. Like, I think if this had happened under Obama and Obama did famously say on Twitter, buy the stock market, buy America in 2009, nobody immediately jumped to the conclusion that he knew something or he did something or his cronies got rich because the market then shot up 40%.

46:06Yeah, but then Obama at the point at that time wasn't in the position to move the market single handedly solely, you know, with a tweet later in the day. That's correct. I think the reality is, is it's probably not technically insider trading, but it sure feels bad. You know, and there's that famous quote, how do you define porn? I know when I see it. Yeah, I know when I see it. But there was a spike in option volume. Like somebody literally, somebody knew. John, do we have that? Somebody knew, but you could have guessed. You could have guessed too. As soon as you saw that tweet, you could have speculated the same way I speculated the day before.

46:35He wasn't going to carry through. Look what this looks like. Michael, what are we looking at? I have no idea. Okay. A line chart going vertical. I don't know what's in there. Okay. this is call options on the triple Qs. Yeah, so the average what is that, the price? So look at the green candle. Yeah. All I want you to do is look at the volume. Yeah. You understand? Well, there was another one hours earlier that dwarfs that. Yeah, look at the one earlier in the day at about 9 a.m. So that's accumulation right after the market. And then that is just as it's happening. Nobody's that fast. I don't think.

47:07So maybe this one's algorithms but the one at 9.30 in the morning I don't know. Unless somebody shows me that every day looks just like this, there's a huge burst of call buying at the open. I don't know enough about this, but I know people were up in arms. I think the problem is that it breeds distrust in the market. And this is not a health. It is not healthy to have distrust in the stock market. You can see before Trump posted buy on Truth Social, traders opened. Triple Qs, the T-triple Qs, which is hilarious. hilarious so the the triple levered etf calls nspy calls and right before the news somebody opened 509 calls expiring the same day those calls all went up 2100 in one hour so people don't people don't do that unless they know something so i think i think like that's part of that's part of the problem of this becoming a game show is people not only see it that way but they see it is a rigged game show on top of it, which is not great.

48:10All right, so let's talk about how the stock market affects the economy. So Warren Pies has a chart showing that the wealth shock is now equivalent to 23 % of GDP, which is the fourth worst since 1950. There was a quote in the New York Times. Somebody said, a friend stopped by my office today and said, well, I won't be redoing my kitchen because my entire kitchen budget was wiped out in the stock market in the past three days. It's not just Wall Street. Oh, no. One of my clients who I love retired this year. You know, she's got a really great nest egg that she saved up, but she's freaking out.

48:45It's down 10%. It's down a little more than 10%. And that will affect how she spends her money. Absolutely. That's the point. Absolutely. She won't travel. She won't buy stuff. She's freaking out. And so when we look at this too, what are we going to do? Collect, you know, let's say tariffs are 23 % right now. We import$3.3 trillion of goods from overseas. Let's call it about 700 billion, theoretically, that we collect on tariffs. Like, what does that do? That more than offsets the best case there, including capital gains. And by the way, you know what I'm going to do for my clients soon? I'm going to capital loss harvest.

49:19And I'm going to do that soon to offset tax bills. The tax gain collection thing was always nonsense because then they're saying we're going to make deals. Well, why are we making deals. If it's so great to collect the tariffs, then we shouldn't want deals. We should want to just... You don't get tariffs. I guess I don't understand it. Yeah, but so you've deteriorated wealth. You've given people an opportunity to offset capital gains. But at least rates are going up and the dollar's going down. Have you thought about that as well? Are you being sarcastic? Yes, I am. Put up the Scott Besson tile, chart 14.

49:54So this is his tweet. For the last four decades, Wall Street has grown wealthier than ever before. True. And it can continue to grow and do well. But for the next four years, it's Main Street's turn. It's Main Street's turn to hire workers. It's Main Street's turn to drive investment. And it's Main Street's turn to restore the American dream. Okay, let me help. The employers who employ the people who live and work on Main Street have exposure to the stock market. Either because they have their own portfolio and they're small business owners and it affects their mood. and therefore the knock-on effects are, hey, I'm watching the stock market crash.

50:33I don't think now is the best time to expand what I'm doing. I thought Besson was smart. Is he like, I don't remember the exact details, but Professor Snape in Harry Potter was like pretending to sort of be bad, but like was like doing it really for good purposes. Is that what Besson is doing? I have no idea. I've been trying to find it, figure out his MO all day. The shit that he says is so dumb and he's not dumb. So, right. He has to be playing dumb because he's not dumb. So he can't. But is he like, I have to say - But what's his MO? Is he like, I have to - Like, what does he want? I think he wants to stay in the job.

51:05And I think he wants to be the hero. I think he wants to be the hero who oversees a situation where the economy is growing, but with more manufacturing and with better middle-class outcomes. My point was - I think he believes that he can do it. Let me give him the extreme benefit of the doubt and say he is an extreme patriot and is willing to humiliate himself and tank his reputation because he needs, for the betterment of the country, he feels like he's the one that can sort of make the president be quasi-rational. Is that at all possible? I mean, anything is possible. What if he's just a power monger and he's power tripping and he just wants maximum power because that's what makes the guy happy?

51:43Well, that's another interpretation. I don't get that from him. I don't get any of it. He's not given those vibes. I don't get any of it. Yeah. Like, I get that from Howard Lotnick. I don't get that from Scott Besson. So what does this do to earnings? John, throw this chart up from FactSet. We're looking at S &P 500, 2025 bottom-up EPS. And it was 280 bucks earlier last year, consensus for this year. Now it's$269, which is definitely not nice and going lower. It's such a shame that this happened from an all-time record high for S &P earnings, isn't it? Yes. Like we were there. We were there. We didn't need to screw it up.

52:16So Goldman's got an estimate out there that it might be 248 to 250. I just wrote my quarterly client letter. I said, you know, it's still at 11.5 % growth year over year. Our guess is that it'll be flat. There's no way, right? There's no way. There's no way. Because don't forget this is forecast, right? And we just talked about how everyone's going to pull their forecast. So people are going to go back to baseline, which is going to bring us back to flat. So like what's 17 times, for argument's sake? Don't tell us. I don't want to know. 17 times. You saw me going for my nerd calculator. 250 times.

52:49Lower, lower. No, I understand it's lower than. Do you really want to do it? Yeah, I just want to do it. Just a mental exercise. So in other words, right now the multiple is 18. The multiple will come lower as earnings come lower. It's 42.50. 42.50. And where are we on the S &P as of right now? 5 ,000-ish, right? It's f***ing gross. Like, it's not good. It's not good for… It's not bad. I can take a thousand more S &P points. But it's 20 % from here. Yeah. It's a flesh wound. I don't mean… Nearly a flesh wound. More than a flesh wound, sir. I know. It's bad. Historically, it's very, very bad. It's bad.

53:20Let's do this S &P bottom. before the trough in earnings during recessions. Michael - Hang on. Before we do that, I want to give Dan a quote because this is a good one. Dan Ives said, we have talked over the last week that unleashing this tab of Armageddon was always a negotiation tactic for Trump, but the impacts and gamble to the real economy are a snowball that once it starts rolling downhill, it cannot be just stopped. Investors will see that during EPS season. So, all right. What happens during recessions to earnings? Less AI. Yeah, way less. So, all right. Um, the average is down 18%. If you take out the great depression and the GFC.

53:57Did we debate this the other day? Yeah. So you were, you said 15, I said 20 to 30. So if you take out the GFC and the great depression, so take the two worst out. Okay. And it drops from down 18 to down nine. Then that's where we are. I know, but we're still forecasting 7 % for the quarter that we're in. Like the reality has not yet hit. That's the dangerous part about this moment. I think that's right. And I think that's why you can look at this, but I don't think any of these went into that period with a multiple trading at an all-time high. You know, we went into this stretched. We went into this with no room for error.

54:32So we've corrected a lot of that already though. So we started the year at 21 times earnings. Now you're 18. You're not 27. It's not 1999. Okay, hold on. You're not at 40 times earnings. But we're 18 times forward earnings, which you and I just agreed are total baloney. Yeah. No, I agree. It's problematic. So if you factor in, what are we saying? An 18 % average decline pulling out the two worst case scenarios. No, no, no. Eight pulling out. Eight. Yeah. Oh, I thought you were saying 18. There's no way we get off this easy. So X to the GFC and X to Great Depression is eight. So that seems reasonable.

55:04There's another great chart from BMO. This shows the year-over-year change in quarterly profits. And we're looking at red circles and green circles. And the bottom line is that when you get a recession, the earnings decline is way more significant on average, basically, than a non-recessionary down drift. And it seems like most people agree if we have a drop in earnings, it will be accompanied by a recession. What are the green circles or when earnings fall, but you're not in recession? I see. So I don't know. They look sort of identical to me. What am I missing? The red. The red or lower. No, the green or more shallow.

55:38The red or lower. The red or lower. So here's the bottom line. Like this is, this is what I would consider the coup de grace, Eddie. Let's hear it. Think back to, let's leave with chart 21, please, John. All right. So people would say, how could you guys even begin to talk positively about stocks when the tariffs went on last night? We have not seen any material damage in the economy, in the earnings per share. Why buy now? I'll tell you exactly why. Well, go ahead. Let's get Jenny's answer. Okay. So I was debating this with my partner, Greg, on the trip in. And he's like, I knew we should have had more bonds, you know?

56:13And I said to him, okay, which would you rather own? The 10-year at 430 or Uber? I'm sorry, I didn't say Uber or DocuSign. Yeah. You'd rather own DocuSign. Why? Because I can't remember off the top of my head exactly, but it's like something like 16, 17 times earnings, unbelievable growth ahead, you know, high teens growth, little to no tariff risk, little to no recession risk. Like, which would you rather own? Well, it'll be more volatile than the bond. And little to no growth. Fine. We hope. Fine. But when you fast forward five years from now, where do you think you're going to have a higher return?

56:44Yes, but see, this is - By a long time. So this is Greg's point. Back to the time period. But Greg's point is - Yes, yes. I can't fast forward five years. Wait, Gary, Greg? I have to live through that. No, no, my partner, Greg. I have to live through those five years. Right. And if you've set up your portfolio in advance and you've got the wherewithal, you are better off to just stick with it, which is why, you know, Josh, after we were - We all know that intellectually is true. Yeah, and I think that's our job as advisors, right? We all agree with that, too. Everybody has a pain point where they cry, uncle.

57:12I disagree. So, wait, so you don't think so? Everybody has a pain point where they cry. Not everyone cries, uncle. Fine, not everyone. A lot of people. Yeah, and they shouldn't. And it's our job to get them through it. And someone put up on Twitter the other day after the show, they're like, and none of these four told us to sell. Like, of course we wouldn't tell you to sell. What do you do with the bear market? You get through it. Selling what? And let's get back, okay. And by the way, I did, but - Yeah, selling what? I don't tell people to sell, but - But let's talk about something else. Like what happens if you miss the 10 best days, right?

57:40Yeah, well, they're always the day after the 10 worst days. Getting back in is impossible. Getting back in is impossible, which is why you're better off staying in. I mean, what would happen? When was the last time we had one of those 10 best days? Wait, that's not the debate though. Here's the debate. You meet somebody. Well, like you're in Connecticut. So you meet somebody on the equestrian circuit, right? Oh, yeah. Okay, on horseback. And I say, Buffy, how was your ride? So Jenny, you're at a croquet match. You meet somebody. They're like, all right, here's the deal. I have$5 million. I want to send it to you.

58:10You're the only person I trust. But like, just don't put it in the market now. Okay, so here's what I do. So what do you want me to deal with it? Literally, this is what I do. So, and this is true in this moment, like today. So I have a client who sent in about$7 million a couple weeks ago. And it's a long story. They sent it to you, not me. I know, I'm so sorry. We can debate that. So this is self-directed, right? And as we said before, some of my clients are through advisors. Some are just very self-directed people. So they sent in and, you know, they've got another part outside of me, but they sent in$7 million.

58:41And so the plan all along was we'll leg in slowly. If the market's terrible. Which is rational. Right. But I'll give you the caveat on it. If the market's terrible, it'll probably go faster. If the market's great, it's going to go slower. And we're just going to pick off stocks one by one. but on the train ride i had a very busy train ride into the city by the way greg this conversation and so they hit that point where they're kind of crying right and they're just they're scared so i said let's do this let's carve out two million dollars and we're going to put it in treasuries that mature in three months six months nine months 12 months ladder ladder and we're going to do one of two things when it matures we have a conversation we say hey let's be disciplined and go in or if the market tanks down 30 percent or treasuries right or if the market tanks 30 percent we've got treasuries, short-term treasuries sitting there that we can use as a source of cash.

59:28Because what you have to do is stay disciplined. Yes. And like, we all know the math on this. The math favors equities. However you cut it, if you can just stay in, the math favors equities. Well, this is relevant. How old is this particular person? This one? They just retired. This one? They're probably like 69. 69. Nice. I kind of knew you were going to say that. Oh, interesting. All right. So let me, can I throw some math at you? I think you would like these charts. John, chart 22. Okay. So to the point of you haven't even seen stocks start to deteriorate in terms of earnings. What we're looking at are all of the bear market lows since 1957.

1:00:00And on average, what happens with earnings per share? And what you can clearly see for those of you who are listening is that on average, the price of stocks bottom nine months. Before earnings. Yeah. You're waiting for the earnings. First of all, here's why you can't wait for earnings to bottom. You won't know it's the bottom until a quarter later. That's number one. But number two, stocks are looking through the falling earnings, and they're already starting to price the recovery. Yeah, things are going to get bad. Oh, you think that's why NVIDIA's down 40 % genius? Thanks. We know. We know.

1:00:34So go rewind back to 2020. This is such a great chart. Rewind back to 2020. Do you guys remember? I know you do. In 2020, when we bottomed in like 23 days, and we skyrocketed, And we said, this makes no sense. Earnings are still falling. How is this happening? In Q3, Carnival reported a 99 % decline in revenue from 10 billion to 30 million or whatever. And the stock was flat on the day. How? Because it was down 90 % already. So look, chart 2020, please. So in 2020, EPS bottomed 13 months after the stock market did. 13 months. Imagine waiting 13 months to buy back and you missed the entire run back up.

1:01:13So even worse, GDP, which of course is backward looking. We don't have the data in real time. GDP bottomed three months after in 2020. And normally it bottoms five months after the stock market does. And we only get that with the benefit of hindsight. So this idea that you are going to wait for the dust to settle before you buy stocks, it doesn't work that way. Nobody gets it right. Yeah. You just stay in. Right. You cannot possibly know that you're at trough earnings. If you can't endure the pain. Until the following earnings quarter where they start to grow again. And then by then, there's no way you're buying lower.

1:01:44Can I tell you guys something that I did recently? I taught a class, just one class at Baruch College on behavioral finance. My friend teaches it and asked me to come to guest teach. And it's really fun. It's for their master's program. The students are really sophisticated. And I gave them a bit of forensic analysis. And I showed them, oh, actually, and as you know, I wrote a book on dividend investing. And there's a chapter in the book that describes this. in the chapter, it's fake names, but their names are Henry and Marianne in the chapter. But it's the same thing that I showed for Baruch.

1:02:13And I showed the Baruch students these two client portfolios and their actual portfolios that I showed them. And both of these clients started on the same time. I adjusted it so that, you know, like one started with one amount, the other, but I adjusted it. So it was even. And I showed them everything, you know, here's the starting value. Here's the cash flows in and out. Here's the investment gain. Here's the income. Here's the management fees. Here's the ending value. Here's the total return. One had a total return. By the way, they started in late 18. One has a total return of 1 % annualized.

1:02:45The other has a return of 9 % and change % annualized. And I said to the students, why do you think this happened? You know? And it took them a ton of guesses. Oh, one took more money out. One did this. One did that. No. You know what happened? One of them cried uncle. And the other one freaked out. And he was the only client who in March of 2020, when we're talking about that day, I couldn't keep in. You know, and I have in my notebook, me saying, don't do this. This is the worst idea. Like you can't sell at a bottom. And him saying, I know, sell anyway. I can't take it. And that's how long, five years later, you have an annualized eight and change percent difference.

1:03:25That is huge money. That's a really important message for people to hear right now, because that's the question on everyone's mind is saying like, wait a minute. you guys are all describing how chaotic everything is and the bond market and the president. But hold. So then why are you saying don't do anything when I could get myself out of this jam right now? Because you won't get back in at the right time. And the client who I call Henry in the book. And it's your long-term returns that will suffer as a consequence, not just this year. And that's why I asked you, what timeframe should people be looking at?

1:03:55You know, should they be looking at the one week out or two weeks out? Three weeks. Which is a debate with Steph. Three weeks minimum. Okay, but that's like, you know, That's just tactical. And am I going to be buying? But when you look at that one year out, every one of those time periods is favorable. When you look at three years and five years, and the reality is, I know your guys' client base is a lot younger than mine. All of our clients, including my older clients, have at least a five-year time period ahead. Yeah. And that's why, Josh, on Twitter, when the guy's like, oh, and none of you guys told me to sell.

1:04:23Like, no, idiot. Of course we didn't tell you to sell because we're not that stupid. Oh, I was going to say, because you're not f***ing paying me. And I don't give advice on Twitter. like a moron from outer space. He was talking about like those of us on the show. Like, why didn't you tell me to sell last week? I also don't give advice on TV. Yes, you do. That's all we do. You know what, Jenny? If you actually pay attention to me, which now I know you don't. You're just stating facts? No. No. While you're busy scribbling notes to people, you know what I'm saying? I am doing this. Not you should.

1:04:52I don't give a shit what anyone does. Listen, that's leading by default. I know it sounds semantic to you, but I go out of my way. Jim Cramer says, I want you to buy Harley Davidson. You will never hear me say that. I say, this is what I am doing because I don't care what anyone else does. Especially if you're not a client of the firm, the hell do I care? But you've got to know that people are looking at all of us. That's their problem. I agree with you. I agree with you. If you're taking advice, if you literally like - From him? You're taking advice primarily from people on TV that don't know you.

1:05:27You're not getting financial advice. I hear what you say. I think it's a nuance, but I, but I get your point. And I, and this is my opinion. This is what I think. This is what I am doing. Not this is what everybody listening should do. How could I do that? I don't know anybody. Yeah. And I think I give advice, but I'll say like, look, this doesn't make sense for everyone. But if you need, then I suggest. Here's where I cross over. I give behavioral advice. Right. I think what I do is I tell people how they should think about things or what aspects of the markets maybe they haven't considered. I definitely don't look into a camera and say, go out there and buy Nvidia today.

1:06:03You'll never hear it because I don't do it. Let me ask you guys this. I tell you to buy Nvidia. On this point. You I can give advice to. So Rob Anderson from Ned Davis Research tweeted, the S &P 500 is off 17 % from the high versus an average drawdown of 25 % for bear markets with no recession and 35 % for bears that overlap with the recession. So if you know that and a listener is like, guys, I know a recession's coming. You know a recession's coming. If we still have 25 % or 35 % more downside and we're only up 18%, I still have time to sell. Why shouldn't I sell? Because I don't know that we know a recession is coming.

1:06:36Well, that's a really important point. And after a day like yesterday with the deus ex machina of the president removing the proximate cause of everyone's pain, you see what could happen if you're like waiting for the all clear. It's going to take place while you're on the phone with somebody. Right, and it's also, So there's such a wide divide right now between the underlying economy and the stock market. Imagine if, for example, 2023, the market had been up 12 % and 2024, the market had been up 12 % and went into this trading at 17 times earnings. We'd have a very different drawdown right now.

1:07:10Jenny, I want to share something that you wrote. And then we're going to talk about the book and then we're going to get some stock ideas from you. So we're going to try to do a lot in a few minutes here. but you said, what's the commonality between all of the best investment quotes of all time? Behavior. They're not about asset allocation. They're not about strategy. They're not about stock picking. They're all about behavior. You and I are 100 % on the same page in that regard. All of those other things are important, strategy and allocation, but like none of them will trump a poorly behaved investor.

1:07:46They won't save you. And so, but you made this list and I'll let you read it. What do Josh and I agree most on? I love that because people think that we fight like cats and dogs or like brother and sister on the air. And we sort of do. We debate. Yeah, but we - People get confused with fighting and debating. And you and I on the big things that really matter, we're of the same mind. 100%. So run down this little mini list that you wrote. Sure. I think it's great. Okay, so this is what Josh and I agree on most. Behavior is paramount. We both believe in the value of good communication. Oh, yeah.

1:08:17This, I think you are the best of anyone I've ever met, Josh, the value of being a market historian and the ability to analogize. And when people say to me - You call me Investopedia Brown. I know, I love that so much. But your ability to analogize is above and beyond. And there's this really great book called Range by this guy, David Epstein. And he talks about if you can analogize, you know, all, whatever, I won't get distracted on that. but like all the great things that come from being able to do that. You and I both believe in asset allocation. Yes. We both believe that markets trend up over time.

1:08:49That's right. We both believe that when we're negative on the market, it doesn't mean we're selling out. Tell them. You can be negative and not cash out a portfolio. And, you know, and last. Testify! We agree that it's fun to disagree. It is fun to disagree. Because, you know, when you disagree. Yeah. And when you get a stock wrong, that's when you actually learn. Yeah. I was thinking about coming into this and writing that we enjoy disagreeing. If you don't agree, you end up like that Saturday Night Live skit with those ladies on NPR. We're like, yeah, yeah. Well, also, there are people on the show that you can't disagree with because they get really upset.

1:09:26They take it personal. I might sometimes be one of those people. Like I might sometimes get personally angry when somebody disagrees with me if I don't like the way they disagree with me. So it's tough. But I think you and I, our back and forth is as good as there is anywhere on financial TV. I personally enjoy it. You do too. I think the viewers end up enlightened no matter which one of us they agree with. And you're coming along. Like you're getting, I feel like you're getting there. Thank you, Obi-Wan. Jenny, what's the best dividend stock to buy for next week? No, I asked you for five dividend stocks.

1:10:02Okay, I'm going to give you five. I actually think I came up with a list of seven for you. All right. So here we go. So the five that I think are appropriate for now. We have a table here. All right. This will help you. Bristol Myers, Canagra, Clearway Energy, Dominion Energy, Ryman Hospitality, Sabra Healthcare, and Verizon. And what these all have in common. Time out. How many stocks in your dividend strategy do you currently own? 36. Okay. So these are the seven that you think right now or for the longest term. For the period that we're in right now. Okay, great. The theme here is US revenue.

1:10:39A hundred percent. And so remember how before I said, we segmented the portfolio and we said, these eight companies have high tariff risk. These three companies have high recession risk. These 22 companies in the portfolio are very, very resilient. I pulled out seven that I thought were very resilient. Let me go one by one with you, okay? I'm going to give you the superlatives and then you tell me why to buy the stock, okay? Okay. All right, we're ready for this? You guys excited for this? Okay. Who wouldn't be? Uh, Bristol Myers is a 4.7 % dividend yield. They've been paying for 92 years, uh, eight times forward earnings.

1:11:13Okay. So if you look at this, it looks like really crummy earnings growth ahead. And that's true. But, um, what they have is a huge legacy, um, drug pipeline. About half of their drugs are still in a growth phase. About half. Oncology big, like big cancer. Big cancer. Yeah. But a lot are coming off patent, blah, blah, blah. But they are pumping out 10 billion plus of free cash flow a year for the next three years. with that, there'll be like AbbVie circa 2018, where they should be able to buy their way back to growth by the end of the next five years. Acquisitions. Right. Whatever it is or internal development, but by the next five years, they should, oh, this goes to your point about buying the market before earnings change.

1:11:51You want to buy the stock before earnings inflect also by the next five years, earnings should inflect and you'll have collected 4.7 % from a company that's paid a dividend for 92 years and it's just minted free cash. Canagra brands, they own like what, Hebrew National? What do they own? Okay, they have a lot of frozen, a lot of healthy, but what you saw over the last nine and then again, when RFK Jr. was nominated to HHS and we were going to make America healthy again, you saw the consumer staples plunge, right? Because there was going to be less calorie consumption. They have a healthier, on average, a healthier portfolio of food brands than their peers.

1:12:26What are the brands? Duncan Hines. I always - I'll tell you right now. Okay, thank you. Slim Jim, Duncan Hines, Ready Whip, Hunt, Snack, Ooh, snack pack over Redenbacher. Yeah, but go to like the frozen. There's a lot of like healthier frozen. Ham, the spray ham. Boom, chicken pop. Boom, chicken pop is a healthy one. Boom, chicken pop is a healthy one. Bird's eye is vegetable, frozen vegetables. Right, right, right, right. What's David? Is that sunflower seeds? Yeah, I think so. It's like the, yeah. Healthy choice, yeah. All right, so 50, 49 years of paying a dividend, 10 times earnings, 5.6 % yield by right now?

1:12:54I think so. Okay. And you know what it's going to do? It's going to give you a 5.6 % yield and you can see the earnings will grow 4 or 5%. So if the share price appreciates at the rate of earnings, you're going to get 4 % or 5 % capital appreciation plus 5.6%. This goes back to do you want to own a bond or do you want to own a stock? Clearway Energy. I'd rather own this. Okay, Clearway Energy. They are – and this is interesting because they actually – C-W-E-N. Right. Home gamers. Okay. And so this has a 7 % yield, trades at 12.5 times, limited earnings growth. But they basically have clean – you know, the clean energy, right?

1:13:28They have wind, solar, battery. if you believe that the world, that America in particular, needs more energy production to feed AI, to feed the data centers, whatever it is, we need everything we can get. We need coal. We need solar. We need nuclear. We need wind. We need geothermal. We need everything. This is wind? No, it's solar, wind, battery, energy, storage, and they just create power and sell it to the grid. Okay, I like it. It's so boring. Dominion is - Oh, sorry, but go back to that. Zero tariff exposure, zero economic exposure. Everyone's using every bit of power that we can use. Okay, Dominion is utility.

1:14:04Right, Dominion's a utility. 75 % in Virginia, a lot in South Carolina. 7 to 9 % earnings growth ahead, five and change yield. 92 years of paying that dividend trading at 14 times. Okay, Ryman, you explained to me on Tuesday on the air, but this is like the Ryman Auditorium in Nashville, which I love. Right. Grand Ole Opry, they have a bunch of other properties. Right, like the National in DC, the Palms and Philharmonics. You went out of your way to point out that these are non-casino conference centers. Why is that meaningful, that distinction? I think because it doesn't, because when they're not, like they really are conference centers for businesses.

1:14:37So they don't, when we were talking about the Las Vegas risk before. So it's not tourism. No, something like, I've got it down here somewhere. Something like 67 % of the revenues are corporate, are corporate sales. And they book out two to five years in advance. It's pretty cool on this one. You can look back to the GFC and say, okay, let's say we did have a huge, long sustained recession. what would happen to their earnings? And if the earnings collapse to the same point they did in the GFC, guess what? They can still cover that dividend yield because what happens is they have severance fees, right?

1:15:06So if you cancel your conference, you still owe them 21 million bucks. All right, Sabra Health. This is 7.3 % yield. Must be a real piece of shit. 11 times forward earnings. No, it's actually a great company. All right, what is it? 11 times forward earnings, but it's FFO because it's a REIT. So it's - Go around and find out. So they've got 364 properties. It's a lot of retirement, skilled nursing. Again, very zero tariff. Yeah. Some economic risk. If there was a huge recession, people are like, oh, I need to keep grandma at home. Government doge risk or no? Not really. No, zero doge risk. Okay.

1:15:38Zero. Because it's skilled nursing homes. So it's like, Josh, you know, when you want to check your parents into a home, you're going to go use one of their properties. Yeah. Sabra is an Israeli word. Why are all the nursing homes, why are all the skilled nursing homes owned by Israelis? Okay. I have no idea. But it's true though, right? But the CEO, you know, is wonderful and wears his hostage tags proudly. And it's really great. So I have no idea. Verizon 6.4%. So I have never made money in this stock as long as I've been alive. This is my take on Verizon. Tell me why I'm wrong. 6.4 % yield, which looks super juicy.

1:16:12Nine times forward. They have a CEO who's one of the highest paid people in the world. The stock price only goes in one direction, which is down. Nobody ever makes money in the stock other than clipping the coupon. and I'm not going to say AT &T is materially better, but T-Mobile is better than both of those. T-Mobile is better than both. Why would I buy this piece of shit? Okay, because this goes back to what time period are we looking at and your time period is that. 30 years of stock has not gone up. Fine. What time period are you looking at? I'm looking at now to say the next three years. And this goes back - All of a sudden, something's going to materially change that makes the stock perform.

1:16:45No. I don't like how he's talking to you. Josh. No, but do you see what I mean? No, no, no, no, no, Josh. Can you pull up a chart of Verizon? I just want to say. Don't waste your time with the chart. Total return. Total return. Close my eyes like Luke Skywalker and just fire. I got to look at the chart. Josh, listen. What would you rather own? A 10-year treasury where you get 4.3 % and pay ordinary income tax or would for the next three years? Would you rather own Verizon where you're going to get 6.4 %? I would rather own literally herpes simplex nine than own this stock. I've lost money with it three times.

1:17:18It never works. Okay. I think you probably are going, no, I'm trying to come up with a comeback. No, I'd rather own anything. I feel like it's not worth responding. You said I was very skilled in analogies. I analogized this stock to literally portfolio disease. All right. So, Jenny, you wrote a book. Yes. Thank you. What a brilliant segue. So, can I tell you what I love about dividends? And then we'll hand it back to you. Yes, please do. Especially in difficult markets like today. I think behaviorally, dividend stocks are wonderful because you know that that piece of shit Verizon will pay you your dividend.

1:17:53Thank you, Michael. Thank you. And it helps you - All the way down. It helps you - It's going to be flat. It helps you stay invested. That's right. So I think it's a great behavioral hedge. That's exactly right. I might buy Verizon, actually. I think you should. But just only if you would rather own a bond. I love your conviction levels. Thank you. I love your conviction. All right, wait. I think Michael makes a really good point. Look, we all struggle with talking clients through moments like these. But I do think the part where they get dividends into their account each month is probably something that you are able to point to and be like, yeah, I know this sucks, but look, you got paid on Monday.

1:18:27You got paid on Wednesday. You got paid like, and you're getting income. So you have something to show for the pain that you're living through. Right, but let's just start off and say, you know, first of all, there's a difference between dividend growth investing and dividend income investing. So when we're having this part of the conversation, it's very specific to dividend income investing. Dividend growth. Oh, that's interesting. because we had this conversation with Belsky. He's the opposite of you. Right. He's looking for dividend growers. You have a certain target current yield and that's what you're building your portfolio on.

1:18:58Right. Is it 5 %? Yes. That's your hurdle? For the whole portfolio, 5 % or better dividend yield. So if you buy something much lower than 5%, you have to offset it with a much higher yielder. Exactly. Okay. And so then let's just, so now that we're talking about dividend income, let's just acknowledge that it doesn't make sense for everybody. It makes sense for people who need the emotional comfort of knowing your point exactly, that if they put a million dollars in and they've come to me and I say, I'm going to give you a minimum of 5 % or better yield, they're getting 50 grand a year paying out over and over.

1:19:29Some people say, well, why wouldn't I just invest in growth or dividend growth or whatever it is and just sell off? You can absolutely do that. Is it true that dividend income strategies are lower volatility than dividend growth or not necessarily? Historically, yes. No. No. Historically, yes. There's no blowups in the high yielders. No, no, hold on, hold on. No, wait. David, growth is more volatile, no? It was. Sorry, it was. There was this brief period around the pandemic. You know, I've managed this strategy since 2001. It was always like a 0.75 beta. Do you remember how volatile the MLPs got?

1:20:00They were so popular with high-income strategies. There was a brief period. So, Michael, we're back down to below, you know, like below a one beta to the S &P. But there was this brief period where it actually spiked up around between the energy crisis of 2015 to 2016. Yeah, I remember that. Through the pandemic, it was terrible. Because for all these years, I said to people, oh, yeah, and if the market's down. What about the REITs? What about the REITs during the GFC? They were some of the highest yielding stocks, the S &P. Some, but if you held the big great ones, you know, you didn't have that kind of fund.

1:20:29The answer is generally yes. The underlying businesses that we're talking about are way less volatile. Right, utilities, real estate investment trusts, companies like Conagra and Verizon. And you can pick on Verizon, but it just doesn't have the volatility. Yeah, it doesn't. You know, it just doesn't. So over the long run of history, you're correct. But over the past 10 years, there's been a divergence from that. What I like about your strategy is that you have the guts to own 36 stocks and not 360 stocks. You don't look anything like an ETF that is just going to be like, all right, it's rules based.

1:20:59We buy the 200 highest yielding stocks in the S &P. You're doing something that is - It's unique. is diverting itself deliberately from what the benchmarks do. And I have a lot of respect for that. Is it a lost art? That's a good question. I don't know. And I'll tell you why I say I don't know. Because when I started this strategy in 2001, there were no other, I came up with the name equity income. Now it's prolific. But nobody used the word equity income before that. And here's why. You didn't need to. because prior to the dot-com boom. Everything paid a dividend. Right. The average dividend yield of the S &P 500 was 3.4.

1:21:43Then the dot-com boom happened. Do you guys remember the term old economy and new economy? Yeah. Right? When stocks are old economy, they were paying a dividend. Oh, I remember that. And that was so late. Like, why would you own an old economy stock? 75 % of S &P names currently pay a dividend. Yes, but they're not high. The dividend of the S &P on average right now - There are a lot of nominal payouts. Right, right. Right. The dividend on the S &P is 1.4%. Microsoft was the biggest dividend payer last year. It was$19 billion. But it has a very, very low yield, which goes back to growth versus income.

1:22:12But to your point about the emotional comfort, in the beginning of my book, I tell this story and I've told it a million times. But it to me was like my aha moment where I have this client who, you know, in 2009, when everything was terrible, you're just calling and saying like, hey, you know, I don't know what's going to happen now. Mark is down 60%. You know, we were down, I think, 28 or 30%. I don't know what's going to happen next. Everything's terrible. And this one client said to me, he's like, hey, Jen, is my income safe? And I go, yeah, yeah, yeah, your income's fine. But I don't know what's going to, and he goes, then I'm fine.

1:22:42Like, chill, you know, chill out, take a chill. And in that moment, I realized that. And so if we think about risk. You should put him on the phone with the rest of your clients. I always offer to him. Great attitude. He's a smart investor. You really invented equity income as a phrase? I think I did. I should have patented it. Because I remember coming up with it. what you think you did? Don't f*** with me. This is almost as ludicrous as Josh saying he invented Blues Travelers. I did. Interesting. No, I literally did. How so? First of all, it's Blues Traveler. All right, whatever. He discovered them.

1:23:09No, it's Blues Traveler. Okay, you invented Blues Traveler? And actually, it comes from a line in Ghostbusters. Yeah, I invented them. They were playing dive bars on 2nd Avenue, playing a place called Nightingale. You tweeted about them? No. In 2001? I bought their first album as a CD and I made it go viral in upstate New York at all the Jewish sleepaway camps. Are you serious? I f***ing did. And I'm telling you right now, I literally invented Blues Traveler. There was no internet. How did you find out about new music? Does Mr. Popper know about this? I actually, I met him, but I didn't get a chance to tell him this story.

1:23:46But they played a show at the Paramount a few years ago, maybe seven years ago. and then at the Paramount in Huntington after the show, downstairs there's a lounge for members of the Paramount my friends who are members with pool tables and bars and like waitress service those guys were cool, they came down and played pool I was so nervous to talk to them I said a few words while they were shooting pool, I didn't want to like be that guy I was like 39 years old at the time, but I should have told them, I basically invented you guys. Oh my God. Like way before you had a number one hit on the radio.

1:24:23You should have told them you own them too. You should have said, I own you. No, I don't feel that way. I don't feel that way. I don't feel that way. Wow. How did we get here? I just want to say my husband believes he invented upside down ketchup too. What the hell is upside down ketchup? You know, how they do the ketchup bottles upside down now so it squeezes right out. John Harrington thinks he invented that. Compared to what I believe, that's just crazy. All right, Jenny, you're again, one of our favorite people. I want to promote your book really quickly. Thank you. And we'll link to it, of course.

1:24:48What is the name in the book? It is called Dividend Investing. Fifty Shades of Dividends. Yes, Dividend Investing. Dependable income to navigate all market environments. Harriman House. I like the, yeah, shout out to Harriman House. Charlie Ellis. Yeah, Charlie Ellis. So do you want to know what - How'd you get Charlie Ellis to write the foreword? Charlie Ellis is a close friend and a mentor of mine. Living legend. For a long time. He's amazing. Very cool. He's an amazing person. Okay. But can I tell you what the graphic is on the front? This will go well with the conversation. I think I figured it out.

1:25:11It's a$100 bill folded into the shape of a boat. Okay, but here's why. So Charlie has an extraordinary ability to analogize also. And it's really his genius also. He's the best. He's the best. Yeah. The tennis. Winning the loser's game. Right. Yeah. But one of the analogies that's always resonated with me that he gives is he says, look, if you're in a little dinghy fishing off of Long Island Sound for the day, it really matters if the tide is coming in or out, right? You better be back to the dock before the tide's out or you're going to get stuck in the mud. He said, if you're an ocean liner and you're sailing across the ocean and someone says, oh, be careful, the tide's out.

1:25:52Not relevant. It doesn't matter at all. And he said, you want to construct a portfolio so that you're the ocean liner. So it doesn't matter if there's a bear market or a bull market. It doesn't matter if the tide's in or out. You're fine either way. And I've always thought that that's such a brilliant analogy. And then when I tell that, people will say, what amount do I need? And it doesn't, it's different for everyone. You know, if you're spending$100 ,000 a year and you're going to get 60 grand a year from social security, like you don't need that big an ocean liner. If you live beyond your means and you're spending half a million dollars a year and you have a swanky house in the Hamptons every summer, you're going to need a much bigger portfolio.

1:26:28So there's not a set number. Your ocean liner, you know, it's not one size fits all on the ocean liner, but psychologically, I love that idea that you want to set up your portfolio to be the ocean liner. So whether the tide's in or out, you don't care. Really good. Love that. That's a great place to leave it. We are, so we're going to tell people that, what's the name of the book again? Dividend Investing, Dependable Income to Navigate All Markets. Guys, go to Amazon, buy that book immediately. And of course, we will link to it. I want to, I want to end the show the way we usually do, which is find out what you're looking forward to.

1:27:03And you have a, you have a spicy answer here. So let's hear it. What are you looking forward to? It's actually not political, even though it sounds like it is. That's what I was going to guess. I'm looking forward to 2028. What happens? I just want to be done. I just want to be done with all this stuff. I don't want this level of noise. I want to play spelling bee again. It's going to be so much worse. You think in 2028 it's going to be worse? I want the end of 2028. J.D. Vance versus Gavin Newsom. You think that's going to be a walk in the park? It's going to be worse. All right. It's going to be all insane from here on out, both parties, all day long.

1:27:31How many more executive actions do you think there are going to be between now and 2028? I don't know. One a day? Does that sound about right? Michael, what are you looking forward to? what do you should ask uh I'm not sure I'm looking forward you know what you were right I'm looking forward to Daredevil ending it wasn't a good season yeah so but you gotta finish it the last episode was good but it was trash you said you were pop culturally illiterate completely I have no idea what Daredevil is can you just take my word for it if I give you a TV show to watch yes okay Last of Us season 2 is starting on Sunday no seriously I want you to do this I want you to do this for yourself not for me I am I'm writing it down so I don't forget This is where I am giving advice.

1:28:11I just rewatched season one, which aired in 2023. I'm telling you that it was the best pilot episode of any HBO show I can think of. And I've seen them all. That's number one. So it immediately sucks you in. It's not one of these things where people say to you, no, no, no, give it like six more weeks. You're going to love it. I'm telling you, if you watch the first episode and you don't like it, that's it. You're done. You're out. We shall never speak of it again. But I rewatched this nine episodes in the first season and the next season comes out, starts this Sunday. I honestly think it's like one of the best shows of the decade that we're now halfway through.

1:28:45Like it could be top five. Like as good as The Wire. Because at its core, it looks like sci-fi on the surface, but that's not what it is. At its core, it's about people who decide that their mission in life is to defend someone else or take care of someone else. That's what the story is really about. And interestingly, the official HBO podcast for The Last of Us is actually done by the showrunners. So it's not just like some fans geeking out. The guys come on immediately following the episode and they explain why they made the creative choices they made. So it's just a great overall user experience, viewer experience from start to finish.

1:29:25And I don't know if season two will be as good as season one, but like it's worth catching up and giving it a shot. So you want to do that for me? Yes. All right. I see you nodding. it's got to be a top five show of this decade, right? Duncan, do we have you in? I never watched it, but. But you will now, right? But hold on, as a vegetarian, it's about the vegetables taking over the earth. I feel like it's like thematically, it's very on brand for you. Yeah, it's not for you. It's not zombies. It's not for Duncan. It's fungus. Yeah. But the fungus controls the minds of the people. And that's how we get into the situation that we get into.

1:30:00So it's like a vegetarian feel good story. like for all of us a horror story for you it's a rom-com so all I'm saying is give it a show I'll check it out Nicole Last of Us Last of Us can I tell you one other thing one of the best soundtracks of any show on TV I can agree like how sick is that Spotify playlist it's like all modern interpolations of like your favorite songs from the 80s it's just it's endlessly good alright that's it from us I want to thank our special guest Jenny Van Leeuwen Harrington of Gilman Hill and the new book, Dividend Investing. Thank you so much for being here. Thanks for having me.

1:30:36Catch her on CNBC. How many days a week are you doing? Just one. Just one day a week? Okay. You and I should cross paths more. I know. I'm going to talk to Kevin about that. All right. Special thanks to the whole Compound crew. Thank you, Michael Batnick. Thank you to all the listeners. Thank you to all the viewers. We'll talk to you soon. Thank you so much. That was so good. Are you kidding? I could do this every day with you. No, I'd do that. Thank you.