Things People Say in a Bull Market

28:12Are people using this stuff or not as much? You took the assignment more literally, but those are two very good ones. So what I meant was, are people trotting out Livermore quotes? I don't think so. I don't think so. Not yet. You quote Livermore in a bull market. I mean, in a bear market, I feel like. No, people, this is what I see people do when we're like in the eighth inning of a bull market. To just like tell each other, like, sit tight, sit tight. All right. So, John, I brought some, I gave some stuff to John. John, what did I do? There we go. All right. We're still so early. is AI. This is AI.

28:47Okay. All right. I was going to say these guys don't exist. Oh, they do. This is very much something that you hear people say in the bull market. And I brought an actual IRL example. So the transcript pulled out a quote from Jassy last week. I say this frequently, but remember that 85 to 90 % of a worldwide IT spend is still on premises versus in the cloud. In the next 10 to 15 years, that equation is going to flip, further accelerated by companies' excitement for leveraging AI. So to that end, you could - Is that true? That's pretty wild, right? Holy shit, you know how bullish that makes me? So here's the thing though.

29:28Here's the thing about the two things that I'm bringing for things that people say in a bull market that sound like bullshit after the fact. They're not always wrong. They're not always wrong. I agree. Bitcoin's a really great example. I was about to say Bitcoin. People were saying like two years ago, we're still early. And you're like at 60 ,000. And it turns out we were. And it turns out we were. People were saying that at 17 ,000. But then it fell to 4 ,000 on its way to 120. So like, yeah, people say it's still early. They might be right. They also might look stupid in the short term for saying it.

30:03Which is why you have to sit on your hands or whatever Lumar said. All right, next one.

30:09Okay. Jesus Christ. People say it's different this time. Wait, give the listeners the quote. Sir John Templeton. So I have Sir John Templeton saying the four most dangerous words in investing are, quote, it's different this time. However, it really was different this time. John, throw my tweet up, please. This is from 2017. This is a long time ago. This is thousands of S &P points ago. Oh, this is such a killer. I remember this. This is so – because – so you're saying the 12 most dangerous words in investing are, quote, the four most dangerous words in investing are. It's different this time. So what I meant by that was people – there are a lot of really, really intelligent investors who are experts of an earlier world.

30:58And they think that history has to rhyme. They remember the dot-com bubble bursting. They remember all the lessons of previous bear markets, but that was 2017. And this time was so different because the driving forces of this bull market are unlike any leadership group that we have ever seen previously. So John, if you would, what did I, I pulled some stuff from Balchunas. All right. So Balchunas did this thing this week where he showed that the mag seven companies have made like 890 acquisitions or whatever it was. There it is, 846. So some notable acquisitions. These are just the ones that the regulators said yes to.

31:44So I think people forget that Amazon owns Whole Foods and it owns MGM and Google owns YouTube and Microsoft owns Activision and LinkedIn and Meta owns Instagram. I mean, obviously we know that and on and on. And then we've got one more. so he breaks down that each mag seven stock is in multiple themes whether it's sports AI or frontier technology metaverse autonomous vehicles you know it's not even on here media like media Apple is now a media company Amazon is a media company and so Eric says this is like this so long ago too yeah dude this is like the mag we call the mag seven there's like 800 companies in here.

32:26And so, chart off, for people that were astutely observing, everybody doesn't understand. You're looking at the wrong metrics. You don't understand the story. We had expanding profit margins. We have never seen anything like this before. It absolutely was different this time. I have a sizzling hot take on this top. We've been saying this for so long that you're acting like these are companies in this monoline business like they sell oil or they or they make light bulbs to try to compare these companies to companies in the past come on they don't respect horizontal boundaries forget about the fact they've built these vertical monopolies in many cases like they they also don't respect the borders from one industry to another amazon wants to get into prescription drugs, what the f*** are you going to do about it?

33:20You can sue them. You can lobby against them. But in the end, they're going to get there. How about telling somebody 10 years ago that Amazon was going to show the Christmas NFL game? It would be like, wait, on what? How? Yeah. Yeah. Right. On a Fire phone, they would have left. Right. So these companies don't respect boundaries. They really don't care. They go wherever they want to go, wherever they think the consumer wants them to be. They'll make an acquisition or they'll build from scratch. They have the cash flow to enable a lot of experimentation. And it doesn't always work. But when it does, your whole valuation model throw it in the garbage because you're missing the fact that they're eating into another multi-trillion dollar TAM and taking no prisoners as they do it.

34:03And we have been saying this, you and I, for a really long time about why it is different. And for the people that, nope, it's not different. But my sizzling hot take is that one of the people that have missed out over the last 15 years or were pounding the table, underweight, or US stocks will have low returns, what are they all have in common? They're all from fixed income. They don't know shit. Not one of them listens to conference calls with Jeff Bezos or Sundar Pichai. They're not stock guys. They're all bond guys talking global macro, doing global macro slides. Or value investors. All value investors.

34:46They're value investors too. But the people that I'm subtweeting right now and thinking of specifically, they're fixed income guys. They don't know what these companies do. I'm sure they know the rating on their paper. but like they're not like thinking about the way that they were shifting into the cloud and now the way that they're building an AI. They don't care about that. They're bond people whose job it is to argue against stock allocations so that they can get more into fixed income. And for me, those are the people that have missed the moment. When I say moment, I think it's going back to like 2010 or 2011 at this point.

35:27But they're fixed income guys. It's really that simple if you ask me. All right. So let's move on to the next topic, which ironically is things that people say in a bull market close to the top. So why don't you please continue the thread, Josh? Wait. What do you mean things that people say? Like you're about to say like small caps don't matter ever. They're dead forever. Well, yeah. They are dead forever. Yeah. Exactly. Yeah. Well, I understand that they can rally. but like, do you think there's going to be a 10-year period where small caps outperform large caps? Yes. Then you have to think that it's because of the value effect and you have to think we're going to have a lost decade.

36:05There's no other possible way that that could take place. Well, that's not true because anything can happen. It is true. No, no, no. That is the only explanation? Show me a 10-year period of small cap outperformance that didn't include a lost decade for large caps. It only ever happens coming out of a massive stock market bubble where the large caps are just destroyed for two or three years and small cap value catches a bid. But think about it. I'm talking about a 10-year period of outperformance. You're telling me a collection of small cap companies over 10 years is going to outperform cloud computing mega caps, maybe, but only if it's a lost decade.

36:49Well, I didn't say that they're going to. I said they can. And I think that at some point they probably will. I think you get like six to eight week rallies for small caps relative to large caps and then it reverses. Okay, so go ahead. I mean, this is, look, this is my recency bias talking, but I'm just telling you over the last 25 years, the only example of a sustained period of small cap outperformance coincided with the bursting of the dot-com bubble combined with the financial crisis. So really unique. We should not study the decade 2000 to 2009 like it contains any kind of information for us about small cap outperformance in the future.

37:30Yeah, I agree with that. All right. Look, I think today was a great day for people that have this kind of small cap overweight or lean in their portfolios. and I'm looking at you, dimensional fund people. I think it's great. I think it's healthy. We want to see these stocks rally. Garrett Baldwin wrote about this over the weekend. I don't think he was not saying the Russell couldn't have a big day rallying, but I just thought it was interesting. Up until today, we don't know what the flows will be this year. Garrett says, turn your attention to where the money isn't crowding. It is not flowing to the Russell 2000.

38:13Small caps have seen an$80 billion exodus this year. That's the biggest exit of all time. I didn't know that. The Russell's momentum has turned negative and is signaling further pressure on the horizon. Well, not today, but okay, we get it. Look at this chart. This could be the greatest contrarian signal ever to get overweight small caps. What do you think? So I was – a small cast would be my make the case today. And then I saw this topic and I saw the rally tonight. I thought that was too cute. But I'm still going to make the case. I'm still going to make the case. I think that they are a screaming buy if we are going to get recuts, which is what the market is pricing in, which is why I think you're seeing the move that you're seeing today.

39:01um so why have they lost 80 billion dollars uh in in fund flows this year negative 80 billion so gareth's answer is in a world of infinite money printing and mega cap dominance who needs small companies um you could buy nvidia or microwave microwave microsoft and ride the ai wave why mess around with a regional bank in ohio so i do think that's the mentality out there Things people say at the top or in the bull market. Yeah. Why buy any of the 30-plus energy producers on the Russell trading for less than their book value? The money is flowing where the Federal Reserve liquidity goes. Big tech, big pharma, big everything.

39:40Small caps represent the real economy. But in our financialized casino, the real economy is so 2019. So he's making the case for why small caps, if you're a serious investor, would be bought here. It sounds like that's the case that he's making. Wait, maybe inadvertently. Or is he being sarcastic? I can't tell. What do you mean? No, I think he's like sarcastically talking about the people who pulled out$80 billion from small caps. Oh, so he's saying this ironically. Yeah, he's with you. He's on your side of this. Oh, OK, OK, OK. I couldn't tell if he was earnest or not. Now, he's also pointing out insider buying is drying up.

40:19And I thought this one was interesting, too. We did this last week. Yeah, so Garrett pays close attention to this stuff. Put this chart up. I think it's a Bloomberg chart. Only 151 S &P 500 companies had insider buying last month. That is the lowest rate since 2018. The insiders know these markets are costly. Corporate executives are dumping stock like it's radioactive waste. When insiders won't even touch their stocks at current prices, that's your canary in the coal mine. All right, so I have a little bit of a different take from Garrett on this. I wonder if you agree with me or with him. I don't think that they think their shares are a waste.

41:00What I actually think is like this is endemic to any like prolonged bull market. People have massive, massive gains in their corporate stock-based compensation. Yeah, no shit. This chart tells you nothing. Of course they're selling. Stocks are up 30 % in 10 weeks. Why would they be buying here? What? It would be pretty stupid for them to be buying. It would make no sense. Right. And they were getting issued stock every year. Yeah. So that chart is not a marvelous. That chart is exactly what you would think. So I would – right. I would not expect to see a huge wave of insider buying after a three-year almost straight-up bull market.

41:40You saw the CEO of HIMSS. I just wouldn't expect it. The CEO of him has just dumped the largest position of his personal portfolio in the history of that company. Is that still a meme stock? Is that still doing its weird shit? I don't have it on my screen. Stocks have gone straight up since April. Yeah, they should be selling. All right, let's look at this. Large cap versus small cap. What's going on here? It's a time shift? So on the left is a long-term view and the right is zoomed in. Okay. So on the left, you can see this really – I guess it's relative. All right. So the trick is we're using the small cap 600 you hear, not the Russell 2000.

42:27So dude, the small cap 600 outperformed from 06 all the way to 2019. Right. So the reason why I sort of call bullshit, I think you have to use the Russell. The small cap 600 gets rid of all the unprofitable companies. But that's the nature of small caps. Some of them are profitable for three years, unprofitable for two, then profitable again. I think it's like a little bit bullshitty to only use the small cap 600. And they do diverge. They are not the same trade. There's a lot of overlap. But the Russell 2000 to me is the true approximation of what small cap America looks like. and I do not think that it looks as good as small cap 600.

43:12Yeah, I agree. I agree. Yeah, I don't like that. I don't blame anybody for doing it. I understand it. I just, I'm a purist in that way. Let's look at the sector exposure breakdown. What jumps out to you here? So we're looking at the percentage of market cap by sector comparing large cap, mid cap, small cap. Well, I mean, the obvious one is technology stocks. 33 % for large cap, 15 % for small cap. And this is a value growth story. That's all it is. Yeah. So that's what jumped out to me. Both the mid cap and the small cap are 73 % value stocks. The large cap universe is 50-50. That's one of the only things you have to know.

44:02That's it. That's it. That's it. That's it. If you can't memorize the sector breakdown, that's okay. You don't have to. If you just need to know one big thing, and this could change over time, of course, but the one big thing you have to know is that small and mid is a de facto bet on, unless you're active stock picking, if you're just allocating on a size basis, you're making a value versus growth bet, period. Hold on. I have to do some hedging trades.

44:29What are you hedging? No, I'm kidding. But I literally am selling some stuff. It's too much already. All right. We could skip the next chart. Let's go to efficiencies. I missed one thing. I missed one thing. So I mentioned earlier, listen, it's a weird market. It really is. So I mentioned this on the show a couple of weeks ago that over at Schwab, investors were dumping NVIDIA like there's no tomorrow. So every month they release their report on what their investors are doing. and they said, NVIDIA set new highs in July. And this time Schwab clients heavily bought shares of the AI giant after eschewing it in May and June.

45:08So in May and June, it was the biggest net seller. And in July, they finally bought it. But even despite flocking into NVIDIA, Schwab clients made Infotech the biggest net sell sector on a dollar basis for Josh, the sixth month in a row, the sixth month in a row. So they said the heaviest net buying – all right, that doesn't matter. With NVIDIA exiting the net sell leadership in July, another mega cap took its place and was by far the stock's most heavily net sold by Schwab clients. Which stock do you think that is? Apple. Bingo. Good talk. Yeah. I mean these are – because I don't think individual investors have strong opinions on the others.

45:53That's it. You're right. You ever meet an individual investor who has a strong opinion on Microsoft? No. They just own it. No, no. So even though there was a lot of craziness with crypto and the treasury companies and the meme stocks and the all-time highs and this and that, there's still a wall of worry in that Schwab clients, which let's be honest, a lot of people are really not buying it. Yeah. It's very bizarre. What could it count for that? So when you say everyone is this, no, they're really not. No, they're really not. Robin investors are very different than Schwab investors. There's a lot of people out there.

46:29It's interesting. All right, go to – let's do this efficiency. So Chartkin Matt has a blog and it's called ChartkinMatt.com. There you go. And he threw up some charts this week that I think are – I love how you named him and he loves it and it's like his whole persona. It's amazing. It's very cute. This kid is the best. So I want to talk about some efficiencies that he highlighted. So$642 ,000, that's the average revenue generated per employee in the S &P 500. $642 ,000 per employee. So it takes 1.55 employees for S &P 500 companies to generate a million dollars in revenue today. 1.55 employees.

47:15In 1991, so adjustment for inflation. In 1991, it took 2.46 employees. to make a million dollars. So they're making a million dollars, again, real - Less people than ever. With almost one full less employee than they were, how many years ago is that? A lot. Yeah. 35 years ago. So it is different this time, it turns out. It is. All right, so chart on. So Matt's got revenue per employee for different sectors in 1991 versus today. And I mean, look at communication services. Oh, this is a killer chart. Look at healthcare. This is some wild shit. Look at real estate. Oh my God. I mean, that's the biggest to me that just at a glance, utilities and real estate and healthcare.

48:01Oh my God, healthcare. So the next one plots it, plots the difference. And Josh, you're right. It's healthcare. I mean, unbelievable. So healthcare has the most growth in revenue per employee since 1991. I guess not surprising. Although maybe I would have picked tech, but healthcare, I guess makes sense too. No, tech is the sector that's enabling all of this. But ironically, they are in the back of the pack. And the reason why is their employees cost so much money. Right? Wouldn't that – isn't that – or I guess we're just talking about bodies. I don't know. And then there's weird stuff like Amazon has a million factory workers.

48:39They're not quite tech workers, and that's a discretionary name anyway. It's not even in tech. I wouldn't even focus on the middle of the distribution. On the left, that's amazing. I think part of this is just the story of how much bigger healthcare has become as an industry and how much money we spend on healthcare. We like the whole world. It's just skyrocketed. So I think that's part of it. It's not just efficiency. It's like certain sectors have just grown so large in terms of what they cost, what the products and services cost. Health care is just enormous for the government, for individual people.

49:18Just the amount of spending probably explains most of that growth. It does. And then lastly, employee growth in the S &P 500. So it was$16.6 million in 1991. We're at$20.5 million today. And this doesn't look great. I got to be honest. Is that all US? Or is it global employees? No. But look, I don't think this gets to$30 million that quickly. Why not? Where else can we go work? Don't you want to work for UPS? Yeah. No, dude, look, it's gone sideways for two, three years. Yeah, but you know what, dude? There's a few exceptions where there were massive corporate layoffs. Like look at 2006, 2007.

50:04But this chart is only going in one direction. this is the rich get richer this is the law of large numbers this is the the relative uh you talk about these mega cap companies taking over all these industries how do you think they're doing that more people they they're they're putting they're putting other companies out of their way and people that work in that industry go work for them or they're acquiring they're They're doing more with the same. Yeah, but this is – I don't know. I think it's destined for 30 and higher. I mean – Yeah, at some point. At some point. All right. I thought this Wall Street Journal piece about all the guys launching these AI hedge funds, this is bubbly to me.

50:54Not like, oh, no, it's going to be this crash, but this is what happens. So now you have this like new category of person that has really successfully been picking stocks in this AI CapEx build out, which let's be honest, hasn't been that hard to do. But fine, they did it. Like, right. So did a lot of other people. But now it's like, yeah. And also I have a fund and look at my year to date performance in like arguably one of the craziest tapes ever for AI tech technologies. and pay me two and 20. And I'm going to keep picking the winners of the AI CapEx. So I saw so much of this in the dot-com era.

51:37I saw so much of this during the brick emerging market, bull market. I saw so much. I've like, I've seen this so many times. And I just want to quote a little bit from the piece and no judgment. Here's the subhead. Billions. Here's the header. Billions photo new hedge funds focused on AI related bets. a 23-year-old former open AI researcher quickly amassed more than$1.5 billion for, quote, brain trust on AI. So now you have guys that are saying like, well, we're based in San Francisco, so we're at the epicenter of this, and we know more than the people in New York. That'll be a popular thing to say.

52:17Now you have people that are like, I worked in AI, so I'll be better at spotting the winners than a hedge fund manager in Connecticut. There probably is truth to that. The downside to that, though, is they're too close. They know way too much about the technology and way too little about what stocks look like through a full cycle. They're so bullish on AI that they're launching an AI strategy. What would it take to get them to come out or to sell or to bet against? In fact, one guy in the article is saying he's betting against companies that are going to be... The hedge is betting against companies that are going to be displaced by AI.

53:00So it's not only an all-in bet on AI theme, which, I mean, just buy the semiconductor ETF and call it a day if that's what you want to do. But now it's like not only are we betting on AI, we're betting on the AI disrupted to the downside. So this is like, I don't know. Don't you feel like this is toward the end when this stuff starts to happen? I do. I mean, how could you not? I mean, listen, this is a cop-out. This shit is really hard to predict, right? At the one hand, on the one hand, we are at the vanguard of a truly, truly technological revolution. And these things - Yeah, with$300 billion startups.

53:44Yeah, well, there's - And that's the other hand. How much do we think is left? Right. No, dude. Preach. I mean, yes. Can I just read this quote? Quote, so one of the guys started a fund called Situational Awareness. Great name. Here's a quote. Quote, we're going to have way more situational awareness, get it, than any of the people who manage money in New York. True. Ashton Brenner told a podcaster last year, quote, we're definitely going to do great on investing. Can you even say that? No, I mean, come on. We're definitely going to do great on investing. Put that on the cover of the offering memorandum.

54:22That's crazy. This kid, though, is up 47 % after fees in the first half of the year. So it's not going to look like that when the NASDAQ has a correction. I think we all agree. I'm sure he would agree. So this is just like, all right, what's the biggest bull market in the world? Awesome. I'm going all in on that. I hope it runs 10 years. I really do. I don't think it will, but I hope it does. And then they talk about some of the This, alright, last thing Then they talk about some of the established Hedge fund guys like Steve Cohen Who Just tasked one of his portfolio managers To start an AI focused hedge fund So the fund is called Turion after AI theorist Alan Turing As in the Turing test They raised like$2 billion for this So he took one of his PMs and set them aside to start a new AI-focused fund.

55:24Here's the thing, guys. After like a three-month bear market, Cohen will be completely out of these stocks. He's not sitting through a negative 40 % drawdown in AI-related stocks if and when it happens. So it's easy to get in, not as easy to get out. I don't know. I think this is like seventh or eighth inning stuff. Yeah. Yeah. So I think that - Not before a crash, but before a huge correction. Okay. It certainly feels like a top should be coming pretty soon. Whether it's the top, I mean, obviously impossible to say. I would not speculate like that because who the f*** knows. But let's do this.

56:07Sentiment trader. The NASDAQ 100 just did something it's never done before. Not in a good way. For the first time since inception, the index closed at a record high. with less than 48 % of its members trading above their 50-day moving average. Over the past 40 years, an average of 76 % were above their 50-day when the index reached a high. So this is telling us what we very much already know, that the leadership is narrowing. But as we've said throughout the years, short off, please. Every time there's been a divergence like this, you've seen the equal weight catch up. and hopefully this time is no different, but I think we need a slap on the wrist.

56:50People are feeling themselves. The VIX is below 14. There is definitely a little bit of throw a wrist to the wayside. We could use slap on the wrist. Look, seasonally, we're getting into September, October. If there's going to be a catch down correction in tech, because you look at the healthcare sector, if the rest of the market looked like that, so all of a sudden, then do the 100 names in the healthcare sector of the Russell 1000 catch up to AI stocks? I mean, not catch up to AI, but Josh, do you also know that the longer this goes into the calendar year, the more people are like, all right, guys, I got to chase.

57:33Yeah, I think we saw it. You know how everything happens faster? I think that's what happened this summer. Still happened right now. I hope we got a pullback. People need to sober up. All right, you're up last. All right. This is a company and a stock that – I don't know if this is the thing I've been most wrong on because there's a long list to choose from. But certainly, this surprised the dickens out of me. Same. Me too. I was never bullish on this. Okay. DoorDash is a$100 billion stock. Try it on, please. My god. So it like 5Xed since 2023 and not because of any other reason than they're delivering.

58:11They just reported a record quarter, 25 % growth, orders, spending, everything's working. Next chart, please. You got the revenue. I mean, just demolishing free cash flow. Credit to them. I just figured that every time – chart off, please. Every time I use DoorDash, I want to punch myself in the dick. I'm just like, it's so expensive. Yeah. But you are so lazy and you're paying it. And that's why that chart looks like what it looks like. So can things be bad when DoorDash's chart is doing that? No. And actually, there's a counter-cyclicality to the DoorDashes and the Uber Eats of the world, which is that if and when the economy finds itself on tough footing, more people need to drive for them.

59:00So in an autonomous era, maybe – I would point out Uber started in 2008. It was like perfect timing. You had millions of people that needed work, part-time work, whatever. So it remains to be seen. The last quarter they reported, oh, you have one more. So I just wanted to sneak this in here. This is really apropos of nothing other than we spoke with a couple of weeks ago. Oh, Adam Parker. He told us he was at an institutional investor conference. And I think it was somebody from Run Mac who was on stage and or maybe at a dinner, whatever the case may be. And they said, like, give us one thing.

59:38Like, what's like the indicator of indicators? And the guy said a low price per share. Yeah. Like, LOL. And it was like, no, no, actually low price per share. So I saw this tweeted the other day by Julian Klimochko. And the Wall Street Journal reported that the 10th of the market with the lowest share price at the start of July. Now, this is a short-term thing, but still, it's just kind of funny. Had a median gain of 16 % by July 23rd when the new meme stocks peaked, while the 10th with the highest price rose only 1.4%. The starting share price was by far the best predictor of performance. And obviously, chart-off, obviously this works when it works and it doesn't work all the time, but this will continue to have moments for the rest of our careers just based on the way that retail trades.

1:00:27Like this will have fits and starts. Yeah, retail loves. dude i i pitched i pitched stock to retail investors for 11 years i prom i promise you there's nothing they like more than a seven dollar stock or a dollar stock and go to three you tell them it could go to 25 yeah yeah there's nothing there's nothing on earth you will get more if you start conversation hi michael it's josh brown i have a stock at seven that i think is worth 25 minimum over the next six months do me a favor grab a pen grab a piece of paper. I want to tell you a little bit about it. And then I'll talk to you about how we're going to make some money.

1:01:03If you do that, if you get a hundred people on the phone and do that, 80 people will listen to you. And I, and I know because now how about a hundred thousand people on the internet all at once? Well, right. You do that shit on Twitter. You do that on Reddit. Same thing, same thing, but now scaled global boiler room, which is, which is my next endeavor. All right. Why don't we jump to make the case and then we'll do the mystery chart and we'll get out of here because we're already out of time. So really and truly, I swear, I was going to just straight up do IWM because they're hated. They've gotten nowhere for years and years and years and years.

1:01:41And we all know rate cuts are coming. Like we all know it. So pile in, pile in people into rate sensitive stocks. So I'm talking small caps. I'm talking home builders. Yeah, I'm with you. and their services. Rocket companies. What did my rate sensitive bet do today? What did Rocket do? Oh, surprise, surprise, up 7%. So Rocket is a stock that both you and I own. I wouldn't sell that. I wouldn't sell that for anything right now. Well, I would. I mean, I'd sell it for 30. Yeah, no, I guess I would sell it for 30. But you couldn't talk me into selling it right now at 18. How about this? I'm not going to do it.

1:02:21So as my handle says, I'm not talking about your 401k. Because for me, I don't care where the stock market goes. I don't care how high it trades. That is buy every two weeks forever and ever and ever and ever and ever and ever. Okay? Yeah. And if stocks fall 50 % good, I'll buy more. I mean, I don't really mean that, but you know what I mean. On the good part, I will buy more. But if you're in a brokerage account and you were fortunate enough to pick up some stocks in April and May, and you're like, you're really feeling yourself right now, like, oh my God, just like sell. What's the next? Well, yeah, what's the next stock?

1:02:49You don't need the next stock. You don't need the next stock. And in fact, you might need some less. so just sell a little bit of something anything tomorrow just sell a little bit of something light it up all right all right but you're making the case for rate sensitive stocks simultaneously yeah i don't hate it yeah buy and sell mister mystery chart all right this immediate company it's one of the worst stocks in the market the opposite of uh what i tend to talk about i'm getting interested in it though as a falling knife okay i'm showing you here this is 40 years of garbage. One other clue, it's a family-run media company, which is possibly the worst kind.

1:03:27What is it? It's Paramount. Look at you. You're so good at this, dude. So this used to be Viacom. It's now called Paramount Skydance. The merger, Larry Ellison's kid bought it and put this whole new board in charge of it. It kicked out all these losers from CBS and And they paid a bribe to the Trump administration to get it to close. They gave him a check for$16 million for interviewing Kamala Harris and editing the clips or whatever. But that's all in the past. Now – so like Barron's has a piece about like it's a clean slate. Like don't worry about where the stock came from. Now you have all these hitters involved.

1:04:11Ellison's got literally limited – unlimited dollars. They're worth hundreds of billions of dollars to father and son. Why not? Why not Paramount? I looked at this stock a couple of weeks ago as a potential buy. They just paid$7 billion for the rights to all of UFC. UFC will not be broken up amongst five different networks like the NFL. It's a huge deal. All of it. All of it on Paramount. No pay-per-view. It's a big deal. So now if you're a young man in this country, right? You're between the ages of 16 and 35. What are the things you like on TV? You probably like these Taylor Sheridan shows with the Cowboys and the hot girls.

1:04:52Love them. And you love UFC. This is Netflix for young men. I think they nailed it. They're getting this cultural shift, right? Like in the culture where like it's okay to be like a young male who likes to punch people and appreciates good-looking girls. Like that's like the whole culture shift now. They're investing directly into that. Ellison's friends with Trump. like I just that CBS stuff that they were doing with like the constant investigation like they're gonna stop that I don't think that's helping them at all revenue wise and they're gonna double down on things like UFC I like it I like it so I'm taking a look it's not my type of thing but anyway good job on the on the guests alright guys I want to close the show by saying thank you to everyone who joined us for the live we appreciate it tomorrow's Wednesday all new edition of Animal Spirits we'll do Ask the Compound and we'll do an all new edition later this week of The Compound and Friends and that'll be a surprise episode for some of you guys I'm looking forward to it alright that's it from us thanks for watching like and subscribe we'll see you soon

1:06:15you