The Weekly: Bumble's Reverse IPO, LVMH’s Plummeting Shares, & Is a Chanel Bag a Good Investment?

0:01Emma: Coming up in today's episode, a story I'm not that happy about. Bumble used to be worth$14 billion. It's now being bought and taken private for$1.3 billion. And unfortunately, the new CEOs and execs are guys. So not stoked about this. We're going to talk about what it means to delist a company from the stock market.

0:20Soph: LVMH share prices are down 40%, all while Chanel bags have increased by nearly$5 ,000 above inflation rates. Why are mid-market brands like Uniqlo increasing their revenue and market share, all while luxury brands are seemingly suffering? All but to say, how can luxury brands navigate an ongoing cost of living crisis?

0:40Emma: This is The Curve Weekly, where we read the finance news so that you don't have to. I'm Sophie Hallwright, ex-television and radio producer who sick and tired of not understanding the economy or investing, so we started this podcast.

0:50Soph: And my name is Emma Louise Boynton, a writer, broadcaster, and newly published author focused on engendering more open conversations around the topics we are typically taught not to discuss.

1:00Emma: But before we dive into the headlines, we have a quick word from today's sponsor. Strong returns in one year? I mean, you could say luck. But strong returns over 10 years? That's a track record. Find out more about Generate's 10-year track record and see their disclosures in the show notes. Remember, though, track record does not guarantee future returns. Emma, how was your weekend? What did you get up to?

1:25Soph: I actually had a very quiet weekend having had a really busy week, so I'm just not going to tell you anything about my weekend. I'm just going to tell you two very, very brief things about my week because I want to give them some recommendations. I went to see The Social Reckoning last week, as you know, in the cinema. And I just want to say, everyone listening, ignore the reviews. It is so good. I was going to say, what's it about? Do you remember in 2010, which I was way early when I realized, the film about social media came out. The Social Network. The Social Network, exactly. Can you believe that was 2010?

1:53Soph: No. I actually...

1:54Emma: Oh God, no I can't.

1:56Soph: Isn't that so weird? Yeah. So it's kind of like the unofficial follow-up. So it's the same director, different cast obviously, but it's basically a story exploring the internal corruption within Meta. so it's based on a true story of frances hagan she was one of the you know og whistleblowers at meta and she wrote a book right yes she did write a book well i actually didn't know the power of one which is a memoir how i found the strength to tell the truth and why i blew the whistle on facebook that's quite a great hug yeah kind of punchy title actually out recently in 2023 so anyway the social reckoning is what i think is a brilliant film basically looking at how Facebook has prioritized growth at the expense of the mental health of its users, knowing that the certain kind of moves that they're making have an actively deleterious impact on their audience, but doing them anyway, because it helps with the overall growth of the platform.

2:49Soph: I think it was just so well done. And it was so scintillating and gripping. You would love it.

2:55Emma: Oh, no, I really wanted to go in the weekend. I mean, I pitched it to Luke and I said, Like, off we go. I want to go see this film. And he looked up the reviews and they were terrible. He was like, I just can't. Sorry.

3:06Soph: I don't get this. I don't get this.

3:07Emma: There must be someone paying for shit reviews.

3:09Soph: Honestly, I was like, is Meta behind the scenes, like, I don't know, doing something to get reviews back? I mean, it would not surprise me. It would not surprise me at all. But I just can't believe it. It's genuinely a really good film. It's like really well done. Listen, are there gaps in the story? Sure. Did they cover every single minute point? No. But that's like not what cinema is about. so I went with my boyfriend and my parents for his birthday oh that's really cute really cute

3:32Emma: actually I love a family outing the older I get the more I just I mean I went for a family lunch on Sunday because it's my dad it was my dad's birthday and he was in London and we had this gorgeous pub lunch and then all of a sudden there's all these young people it honestly just felt like sex you know sex energy on a Saturday night where everyone's like flirty dressed up you know like like eyeing everyone across the pub I was like get me out of here like I was just so happy to have my family outing and then exit when it was party time.

4:01Soph: Oh my God.

4:01Emma: I'm so old. We're getting old. I know it's so bad.

4:04Soph: I would feel exactly the same. I'd also be like, oh God, guys, it's actually 8.30. Do you think we should be heading? I know. It's time beds for that. I know.

4:11Emma: I know.

4:11Soph: An 18-year-old me would be horrified.

4:13Emma: I had another shocking Karen, almost like Karen moment yesterday. I went to a sauna and there was this girl sitting in the corner just yabbering for the entire hour. Look, it wasn't a silent sauna. Yeah. So, you know, fine. But everyone's paid quite a bit to be in a sauna. Generally, it's a relaxed, reset environment. And she was just, and then he said this, and then she said that for the whole hour. And I was this close to giving her a, excuse me, could you please shut up?

4:39Soph: Lack of like social etiquette in public spaces now. I mean, oh my God, I sound so old saying that. But it's true. I can actually one-up you. So the second recommendation I had was I went to see an amazing theatre production on Tuesday called The Story at the National Theatre for anyone in London. It was so good, really powerful performance, you know, quite serious topics looking at kind of racial injustice set in a newsroom. About midway through of this scintillating production, I just hear some crackling behind me. How crackling? Oh, we're talking, you know, in the cinema, everyone's opening their popcorn and trying to be like really surreptitious about it.

5:15Soph: Like, oh, oh, sorry, sorry. But you kind of, it's like, yeah, you can forgive them because you can tell they're trying to be quiet. And also cinema popcorn, like it's a thing. It is not a thing in the theatre. Then this woman starts loudly eating her crisps mid-performance. I was so shocked and I fucking Karened. I turned around and I said, excuse me, can you stop eating? This is the theatre, not the cinema. And I was like, oh my God, who have I become?

5:42Emma: Who were you with and were they embarrassed or happy you did that?

5:44Soph: I was with my friend, Ailo, and I think, you know, she was like quite fucking right too. Shall we talk about the finance news? Two really exciting stories today.

5:53Emma: Yes. So if you've missed this, Bumble has been all through the finance news. In fact, lots of news this week. When Bumble first was valued when it went public, it was worth$14 billion. So it was an enormous, very valuable business. That value massively dropped and it's looking like the business is going private. So we're going to talk about what's going on in terms of the dating space in general, but particularly with Bumble for anyone that owns shares what happens when a business has gone public and is on the stock market and then all of a sudden is going private. So the dating app, Bumble, is being bought by a company called Ithaca Holdings for$1.3 billion, which you might hear and think, amazing, wow, huge buyout, billion dollars is actually not that great.

6:40Emma: And it's really particularly shit for anyone that bought when the company first listed and went public. Emma, you sent me a video on Instagram, which was a really great wrap up from Mrs. Dow Jones because she bought an IPO and was very regretful. So I might just play a snippet of that now.

6:58Soph: Basically in 2021, I bought five shares of Bumble like right when it IPO'd for$400. It was like$79.14 a share. And yes, I bought an IPO. Lock me up. I know I usually tell you to avoid IPO hype at all costs and I believe that. But Whitney Wolf Heard was becoming the youngest woman to take a U.S. company public. And I just got really excited because feminism. Basically, I confused a historic moment with a buying moment. And now Bumble is being sold to Ithaca Holdings for$1.3 billion. And when a public company gets bought and taken private, the buyer typically buys out existing shareholders, including moi.

7:35Soph: Their offer is$6.05 a share, which means if the deal closes, my$400 investment will become$30.25. cents. Woo, love that for me. I mean, at least I can use the loss to offset investment gains and potentially reduce my taxes. But the whole thing is a good lesson on why I avoid IPO hype. When a company goes public, there's enormous excitement, but that doesn't mean its stock is a bargain. In fact, you could be buying it at one of its most expensive moments, which is exactly what I did.

8:02Emma: When you first look at the story, you might think, okay, amazing. They're being bought for 1.3 billion so much money but without the context for how much it was valued when it first went public so it's fallen a lot and I think to give context we should just rewind back to February 2021 when it first listed because do you remember this on socials there was all the big popping of like yellow confetti it was such a huge moment for women in business because Whitney Wolf heard was the first self-made billionaire and everyone got on board was celebrating the business its unique point of difference she was at tinder before and then obviously there were lots of allegations

8:43Soph: there she had a pretty like horrible exit and then she went on set up this you know this feminist like response to that was like you know women's white bust it just felt like it felt like a really pinnacle feminist moment whereby a woman who was you know subject to the cruelties of patriarchy in a kind of male-dominated tech space had gone out, created something bigger and better, and was like pushing things forward for women in tech. It felt massive. Now, I have to say, when I first saw this story, anytime a company goes IPOs and then goes private again, I look at that and think, oh, you must be failing.

9:15Soph: Something's happened because why are you reversing this big thing that you did? Like why are you taking, it feels to me from a kind of untrained

9:21Emma: eye like a step back but is it when a business goes public they are raising a certain amount of capital and in this case they needed 2.2 billion so they went public because they had all these big expansions and plans to grow and get bigger and as you say it was kind of like really the heyday of apps and dating apps and people dating apps with though it was just it

9:44Soph: seemed like it was just only growth yeah everyone was on them everyone was hooking up on dating apps it felt like it was just a sign of the time it was a really good time for you and dating apps

9:52Emma: there's a lot of success stories sorry I said that not mine I don't know I was like yeah so I had a terrible terrible story you know I didn't have much success oh no I had met a few people around that time but I don't think I properly jumped on the dating app bandwagon until really a couple of years ago I think this was almost pre maybe I was a late adopter it was definitely big at the time but dating appeared to be really online and that this was sort of the way of the future you sort of rewind 10 years pre that and dating apps and dating websites were like icky and gross and embarrassing in 2021 it was like the height of it and it's a really good time to go public when everyone's obsessed with an industry right because it's like there's all this hype everyone's excited and so they listed on the nasdaq which it's sort of known as the tech index and it went up for 43 US dollars a share.

10:43Emma: Is that good, bad? Well, now, guess how much the shares are worth. How much? It's like six, six USD. Six? How many were 43? Look, I mean, I don't know the context of what's good or bad because it's also comparative to like, what's their earnings? How did they get the valuation? Like there's a lot of complex calculations that go into valuing a share. But midday, on the day that it went public, it went up to 76 US dollars a share. So it kind of like came out of the gates. It went public and did really, really well. It was like this sort of famous valuation where people spoke about Bumble being worth 14 billion.

11:22Emma: And so at the time, that's where that came from. So Whitney Wolf Heard was worth like one and a half billion at the time because of the amount of stock that she owned. So it was a massive success story. They got all this money in. And unfortunately, the share price is like doing absolutely terribly now.

11:40Soph: You don't get more public than an IPO. Yeah. To go back on that, like it just seems, it just feels inherently like your bet didn't pay off. And I know that's quite a simplistic reading of it, but it seems like Soho House. I'm like, you bet big on your capacity to go supersize. It's like you kind of supersize your order and then you've been like, actually the food wasn't good enough and it got sent back. That's kind of how I see it.

12:03Emma: Well, it's gone down like nearly 90%. If you bought at the peak, you will have nearly lost all your money. So let's say someone put like a thousand US in. They would be getting, based on this deal of them going private, around$141 for that thousand. So like you've nearly lost everything. So it's a pretty shit story.

12:24Soph: Can I just ask again, super simple, going back to like absolute basics as someone who's not listening to this. when a company ipos and then it goes private again does everyone who put in money during the ipo basically get a payout at the like new market rate and then they get kind of shooed away like thanks for trying your bet didn't really work out here's a tenner yeah so the share price being six

12:50Emma: usd this like private company is basically offering 138 premium so you're not just getting that amount back, you're getting 138 % increase, but that's on the share price being down. If you'd bought recently, you actually could be making a pretty decent return. The people that this really sucks for is the people that bought in at the beginning. I feel mixed reviews about them going private. When you are a public company, and this is why a lot of people haven't IPO'd that much anymore, because the amount that you have to report, it's like quarterly. So it's the numbers on who's signing up to the dating apps, how much money are you making from subscriptions, like all, what's your spend, all of that stuff is public knowledge, right?

13:34Emma: So all investors, you're kind of like seeing the company naked. It's really, really hard to make change when you're in the downward spiral. Like they've tried so many different things while being public and it hasn't worked. So there's obviously a strategy to bring more value back to the business and hopefully like revive it. But ultimately, yeah, you don't look at this and think, wow, amazing. Bumble's been bought out and is going private. Like it's not great. As someone that lives and breathes and is so educated in dating, love, intimacy, like this is your area of expertise. As someone who met someone on a dating app, I actually am quite pro the dating apps.

14:11Emma: I think that they're – yeah, I'm like poster child for life. But I also completely understand the fatigue. I understand people not paying for it. The morale is pretty low.

14:21Soph: The morale has something. It is.

14:23Emma: It's pretty on the floor. Yeah. But what's your take on it? Like, what are you seeing in this space?

14:28Soph: Listen, I think that the apps are neither good nor bad inherently. Like, you are a success story. And I name you as a couple of my friends. Do you? Yes, who are success stories. That being said, I think what dating apps have done, they have fundamentally transformed the dating landscape kind of irreversibly. Creating a culture in which people feel increasingly disposable and dispensable. And I think even if you're not on a dating app, you are still now, if you're single, you're still navigating a dating environment that has been fundamentally affected by the attitude that people have cultivated on dating apps.

15:02Emma: An example of that, I really notice if I go out with friends or I'm at a bar, you know, you do not see people crossing the bar to go and speak to a group of randoms very often. People are generally incredibly drunk if they go and make an effort to speak to someone that's not within the group that they arrived with. I think for that reason your point of saying even if you're not in the apps it's impacted the way you date is so apparent because everyone that's using dating apps or trying to date rely on the dating apps therefore people don't often talk in real life which means people aren't as open to speaking or striking up conversation and for me I found that really helpful because I would be like hey if I'm hanging out with my friends I'm with my friends I could be really present I wouldn't be like looking over my shoulder and trying to see who was hot at the bar or like doing a circle or trying to speak to people that weren't who I went with I found it it helped me be more present so I wouldn't go to events and feel let down or sad if I didn't meet somebody I compartmentalized and I was like well I'm on the apps and I'm dating in that way so I felt like I was doing something yeah to make an effort to meet somebody but I didn't feel this constant disappointment of not meeting new people which I found really helpful but I also can see how hard it is and I see so many friends that really try and are struggling yeah I remember interviewing

16:20Soph: a dating writer actually once she was like I feel like I'm going out with friends you know in pubs bars whatever seeing lots of attractive people but not making an effort not speaking to anyone to your point and then going home and kind of scrolling rapidly for half an hour an hour on my phone on a dating app she's like what am I doing like I've just been in an open environment in which I could meet people and I hear what you're saying about being able to be focused and your friends i also think that's wonderful being able to have kind of really focused friendship time but for her she was like i i'm in environments where i would like to you know loads of potential people i might like to meet but instead i've kind of almost relegated the experience of meeting a potential romantic partner to this half an hour an hour when you get home

17:00Emma: drunk to be like gotta make somebody exactly i think the thing that's an issue with dating apps from a business model perspective is that a lot of people are so sick of it that they then don't pay for it yeah and that's where bumble hinge etc like i right now the year-on-year growth of people who who pay whatever it is 160 a quarter has gone down by 16 it's shrinking with the amount of people that feel it's an investment to pay for it but i would also say there's 360 million people

17:27Soph: are still using dating apps globally in 2025 so if you think of like just how many people are still relying on their apps in their pursuit of romance like it's not you know nothing but more and more people are now wanting like in-person experiences so there's a survey that found that nearly four and five app users say they feel burned out from swiping and are now looking to like go to live events and eventbrite has seen a massive increase in the number of people searching for hobby activity with connection orientated language so singles come solo find your people um it's really That's really sweet.

18:00Soph: That language is up 117 % with trivia nights up 403%. I really love that.

18:06Emma: Isn't that so cute? There is something quite nice about meeting people in person as well because you talk to someone for 15 minutes, you very quickly know if you're into them, attracted to them, find them funny. It's like quite a good way to bang for a lot of people rather than going on lots of dates. I think that's where people get fatigued.

18:22Soph: Okay, so this is actually, that is such a good point. And this is the resistance I ultimately felt with dating apps despite having really given it a good go for many, many, many, many years, is that I felt there was a kind of false economy that they offered in that the idea was it's more time efficient to swipe through people because you can get through more potential romantic partners and then maybe match the couple of them. But I just never felt that was true because actually when you meet someone in the flesh, you so quickly have such a sense of like of attractiveness, like how they smell, how they move I always found that was such a big thing I went to the laugh for people

19:01Emma: voice yeah always different in real life I find the laugh for me I'm either cool I'm gonna laugh along with this person or I'm instantly a doubt you sit down on your dating

19:11Soph: update and you know like that whether there is a core degree of attraction compatibility and that's the thing is like I would end up going on all these dating updates and I'd know so quickly that I didn't and you've got another hour and a half I know you don't want to be rude and so I actually think the kind of yeah the data the in-person data we can get very quickly from in-person stuff it's actually a lot I think quite a lot more efficient but what I love about this is that people are really going to nights that aren't even like overtly like this is a singles night come and meet your match but this is a group activity where you can come and it kind of takes the pressure off definitely a bit but one thing we should um touch on so from this is Bumble really tried to revive its fortunes.

19:52Emma: This is exactly where I wanted to go.

19:54Soph: And I want to just ask you about this because I know they have really done their damnedest over the past few years to try and really kind of beat this downward trend in terms of people coming off the apps and particularly Bumble. Can you just give us a little bit of an overview of their attempts at regaining?

20:10Emma: I feel sad talking about it because it's like, obviously none of it worked.

20:15Soph: But it just didn't.

20:16Emma: Spoiler. Spoiler, none of these worked. So they tried everything. They did price rises to try and bring in more revenue, which is, I mean, and this is an interesting one, which we'll get to in the next story. Your price flexibility, you know, if you charge too much, then you lose people. If you charge too high, people, you know, there's a lot. So anyway, they tried to increase prices, didn't work. They tried AI message helpers. They tried AI matchmaking to try and actually bring people together that were potentially more suited.

20:48Soph: That was a huge news story. Remember Whitney Hurdwolf did that interview with Axios and was like, yeah, we're going to do an AI concierge service. And that was, I mean, every headline at the time was, would you want AI to be your personal matchmaker?

20:59Emma: And now, yes. I'm like, take the admin out for me. Put me with people that you think, based on the algorithm, I would be all for it. I understand why people are freaked out. But again, it all comes down to timing. Because I think if that came out now, people would probably be more open to it. I think so. I think so. Because we're all using AI so much more. It's the same as when dating apps came out and Plenty of Fish was a thing. And I was like, how embarrassing. But it wasn't embarrassing. And that's why Tinder ended up doing so well, because it came out at exactly the right time.

21:28Soph: The reason I instinctively want to push back on that is I actually think it just leans further into what people are becoming kind of grossed out by. And that's a technologization of romance. And I think if an AI concierge service feels like it's even more devoid from human connection.

21:43Emma: If I could use AI to fast track the likelihood of me matching with somebody, I'm all for it. But the other things they tried, they did offline events. They have actually tried to do events a lot. And you see it. They're collaborating. They sponsor a lot. And then in August, so super recently, they actually scrapped what Bumble was famous for, which is women messaging first. Yeah. And for me, I feel like that's almost the straw that breaks the camel's back. It's like, what difference is there now with Bumble and anything else?

22:10Soph: Back in 2014, the Women Make the First move felt like such an empowering feature. I mean, it was pitched as kind of the feminist app, like women taking control. You know, you're not in the backseat. You're in the front seat now. You get to like, you call the shots. Yeah, I'll message first if I want to. And then we were like, woohoo. And, you know, it's so fun. Like the founder, the origin story of the company felt so fitting with that, you know, Whitney Hurd, Wolf story. Fast forward to 2026. and I feel like there's this kind of collective exhaustion on the part of everyone and anyone on dating apps and it kind of began to feel, I guess, like an additional burden.

22:47Emma: Oh, it's all on you. You've got a message there.

22:49Soph: So, you know, 24 hours or it's gone

22:51Emma: and you're like, oh my gosh. But to your point, I think it was their USP

22:57Soph: and for them to then backtrack on that, it felt like you're really giving up on yourself. Oh, can I just mention one more thing? I do think this is worth bringing up just because I think what we're really discussing here is one a changing landscape in which dating apps are all kind of feeling the hit at the moment in terms of how just people how people are approaching dating just shifting quite a lot but also just Bumble specifically having made some pretty poor choices over the past couple years seeming like kind of losing its footing and one thing I just think we have to bring up is the campaign that they did in 2024.

23:29Soph: So I don't remember this oh to refresh your memory so they did a disastrous anti-celibacy ad in which in 2024 in which they were kind of these huge posts i mean i remember saying they were all up around east london they were all up around my co-working space at the time saying you know full well a vow of celibacy is not the answer another one read thou shalt not give up dating and become a nun now this went down like what's that awful saying like sick in a bucket i hate that but it went down A cup of cold soap. That's awful, isn't it?

23:59Emma: Or a lead balloon. Oh, gross. All these things.

24:03Soph: But it went down so poorly because people felt that it was almost kind of shaming them. So a lot of people were making choices. We've seen a massive rise in people talking about celibacy. And we can appreciate that this celibacy movement, as much as young people are opting for celibacy, is in reaction to the broader dating climate feeling pretty disastrous. And this felt like a campaign that was blaming people like, oh my gosh, this is so pathetic. This is on you.

24:25Emma: you know you're the answer is not to stop having sex get back out there and it felt so blamey and

24:31Soph: it just it went down so poorly and they had to very quick i mean it must be a very expensive campaign you know billboards all over london and they had to withdraw it very quickly so it just feels like they've just had this they were just missing the mark where they when they began they were so hot on the money of the kind of feminist but also remember you know when she was even doing

24:48Emma: initial marketing at the very beginning she was going into universities and with like signs and I mean, like, do not download this app. And, like, it was super clever. The issue when you become a bigger company, not just public, but the bigger you get, the further away the founder is from those types of decisions. Essentially, a founder almost is, like, the beating heart of a business. What they stand for, the way that they market, all of that. The more people that you hire, the more diluted culture gets, ideas, everything. It'll be, I mean, it is interesting because she still owns 18 % of the business.

25:21Emma: So it's not as though she sold out and was like, see you later. So it's not as though she's separate from the business. But if you think about the amount of people involved in making those decisions, it would be very hard. You can't be across everything. You have to trust your team. Can you imagine how annoyed you'd be when you saw that marketing campaign come out?

25:39Soph: And that's also really interesting. I haven't thought about this until now. But she was so much the face of the brand. She was so synonymous bumble because her story was the origin story of the company. and I can't think of another dating app that has that much of a prominent face founder yeah there's

25:56Emma: no there's no other day no I mean I don't know who founded tinder I don't know who did an anonymous

26:01Soph: company whereas you know we've talked about this I think before in previous episodes like there's a kind of on the plus side people connect with people and that kind of the relatability is very you know can be a very useful thing early on in the business but as the business gets bigger if you're still attached to that the face of that founder that the kind of you can the business can rise and fall in connection to people's like how much they actually like that founder but i think

26:25Emma: that that is why this story is even sadder in my eyes because you've got this public founder who's a female who is the younger self-made billionaire now kind of quote-unquote fail and so it's it's not great in terms of what it says about female founders because it you know in the way she was the poster child for doing so well. She will also be the poster child for having delisted as a publicly listed company.

26:52Soph: And Ithaca Holdings is run by two guys. Yeah, exactly. So now the Blumberg gets taken over by two guys, which...

26:57Emma: The whole thing kind of sucks, to be honest. But I think the key learnings here, and just talking about the idea of what does it mean to delist a company, so the shares will stop trading, obviously, so you can't buy them anymore.

27:10Soph: Didn't want to up this conversation.

27:12Emma: You weren't planning on doing that.

27:13Soph: I was in this conversation has not made me want to go out and buy Bumble shares.

27:16Emma: Neither, to be honest. So the buyer will be purchasing all of the shares from all of the stakeholders. Well, not all of them because they're not buying the entire company. But basically, over a certain amount, they get to make the decision and push it through. Because we talk a lot about if you're an investor, you're kind of a mini owner. But you're not in this scenario. Like if you own shares, even if you own, I don't know, 10 ,000, you're not getting a say in whether or not this deal goes through. Because the largest shareholders, and Whitney, so like the previous investors, have already signed the deal off, which basically means that it's done.

27:49Emma: It's like it's voted through. So people who own, even if it's a decent amount of shares, don't get a say. So you can't like hold out. So once the deal has gone through, people basically, their shares get, you get cash instead of shares, which again sounds great. You're like, oh yeah, cash. It's like, yeah, but not great amounts of cash for what you put in.

28:08Soph: So there's big winners and losers in there. So some people, if they bought shares more recently, might actually get a decent issue.

28:13Emma: Like, okay. I mean, I guess it depends how much you put in. But it all comes down to when you bought. And I think, you know, we've talked about IPOs and the, yeah, just the risk of the hype that comes with going public. Because that's exactly what happened. They went public. The share price went up. Actually, the best time would have been buying it really recently when it's doing badly. So it's like all of these themes and quotes that we talk about from famous investors, be greedy when others are fearful. You know, like when everyone is selling and doesn't want it, that's the time to be greedy.

28:45Emma: Be fearful when people are being greedy because that because it's the idea that if it was so many people are talking about I'm buying it, there's not a lot of other people to buy in to make the share price go up more. but yeah I mean essentially it's not exactly like the most exciting story but I'm really interested to see how the business goes when it's private and turns in on itself and can make decisions

29:05Soph: that aren't based on the sheer price well we'll be watching avidly to see the next evolution of bumble run by two guys okay shall we move on to the next story which is super interesting um looking at decimation of the luxury market no the growth of the luxury market well this is the The decimation of the luxury market.

29:25Emma: This is exactly the question. So 10 years ago in 2016, a Chanel medium classic flap bag, you know, the one that everyone has with the flap over the top and the gorgeous chain, was$4 ,900. 10 years later, so this year, that same bag is retailing for$11 ,700. So it's gone up a huge amount, which would make you think, okay, the luxury industry is booming. But actually, if you look at LVMH, their shares have fallen 40 % this year in 2026. So we're going to look at the luxury space. Is it on the incline? Is it dying a slow death? We will speak about that next. But first, we have a quick word from today's sponsor.

30:01Emma: Okay, so any KiwiSaver provider can have a good year. But how can you tell if they're a really good provider from the one that just got lucky? And honestly, that's consistency. A provider might be able to get a 20 % return one year, but that could actually just come down to one or two investments performing unusually well, rather than a consistent investing skill. So what you want to look out for is if a fund performs over a long period of time. See Generate's performance and disclosures by using the link in the show notes. And thanks Generate for making this episode of The Curve Weekly possible.

30:37Emma: Emma, as the proud owner of a Chanel bag, have you taken care of that bag? How is it looking right now?

30:45Soph: Okay, so I was gifted a bag from my sister, which was, I got the Dua Lipa bag, which is in medium size oh my god it's like my it's okay so it's my favorite possession i just love it so much but that's also because i love do a leaper so much we discussed in the podcast before i'm a little bit obsessed with her i was very lucky i got given it as a gift but do i think it is worth like i think this one costs like 5k if you bought it 5 000 pounds yeah 5 000 pounds like it is beautiful leather it is well made it is a handbag it is a handbag i remember when a friend at school got a chanel handbag for her 18th birthday i know oh bloody hell they cost about a thousand like 1200 pounds then and everyone's like oh yeah but it's a really good investment piece because they appreciate and value so much that actually it's the one like luxury item that's worth purchasing because they only get more valuable fast forward a few months and the stitching was already coming undone in her luxury asset that was supposed to appreciate in value so i mean unless you're just like keeping the bag in a box is it true like is it true that

31:51Emma: these bags keep their value would we think an 18 year old like what would they be doing with that bag i mean i imagine she was swinging it around at like the big day out or some crazy festival

32:00Soph: and that's where the stitching came undone you know like no she was not really but 18 come on stitching was coming out on you know route to a right glamorous tea or something i mean i think

32:13Emma: it's so interesting to look at this because when you think about an investment an investment is something that appreciates right it's not something that you put money in I mean even if you think about diamonds and your engagement ring sure a natural diamond holds value more than a lab grown if you haven't listened to this episode by the way we did a full episode on lab grown versus natural it's so fun we'll link in the show notes but the the example I use is like if you are financially astute, you will know that the return you would be getting on a diamond that is natural is not a return. Sure, it's holding.

32:47Emma: It might not be losing its value. And a lab gone has basically no value. But if you think about how much, say,£5 ,000 in a natural diamond could grow if it was elsewhere, getting 10 % return year on year, considering an investment is, I think, almost a little bit dangerous because it makes people think, well, it's an investment. It's like, yeah, it might be holding its value, so you might not be losing heaps, but is it appreciating? So let's say a Chanel bag cost$5 ,000 and inflation has gone up by 10%. That would then mean the next year, if it was keeping up with inflation, it would be $5 ,500.

33:27Emma: The difference here is like this Chanel original, so the 255 bag, which by the way, first sold in like the 50s for$200. USD

33:36Soph: that's when it would have been

33:37Emma: so obviously that would have been a stunning investment oh my gosh

33:39Soph: if you just snapped up a ton of bags at$200 how old would you be

33:45Emma: if you were born in the 50s like my maths is pretty bad

33:48Soph: maybe my 80s 70s 80s my dad's

33:51Emma: I mean like it would be a great investment to sell now

33:52Soph: listen if Graham Boynton had a secret stash of Chanel bags that he bought I would be

33:59Emma: I mean they would sell right because they were the initial ones of course they'd sell

34:02Soph: also 200 I mean listen but think like

34:05Emma: 200 USD at the time would have been a lot of money. Yeah, that's true. If you look at then in 2016, so the medium sort of classic flap, which you see on a lot of people, that cost$3 ,880. Ten years later, in 2026, so this year, it now retails for over$9 ,000. So that increases nearly 169%. If you were just looking at inflation, so if it had just kept up with inflation, it's basically gone up nearly$4 ,500. more than inflation adjustments.

34:39Soph: So if you look at this particular bag, because they price increase,

34:44Emma: these bags, and they restrict supply, it is an investment because it's worth more. But not all luxury is like that. And if you look at LVMH where their share price is down 40%, leather goods, which is like Louis Vuitton, Dior, just that section within LVMH went down 5 % in sales.

35:05Soph: Are people being priced out of the luxury market because it's going up so much faster and more significantly than, for example, the inflation? Or are luxury items becoming less of a status symbol because of the ubiquity of fakes?

35:23Emma: So Bain has estimated that the global luxury consumer base fell from around$400 million in 22 to around$340 million. So that's like a 15 % decline in the last few years, which is quite a lot, actually. LVMH, which we talk about quite a lot because Vic is a massive fan of this particular stock and she loves luxury investments. They have come out saying that it's because China is kind of the main issue that the results are doing so badly and that there's less demand in China, basically. There's less people buying in China. Is that because there's so many good fakes there?

35:58Soph: Because, I mean, you do see good fakes are so well made that you think what is the point like what do you because i guess it's like what are you actually paying for because the yes you want like a well-made piece of clothing something that like last long we know that designer goods don't necessarily a lot yeah there some can be good well-made but also there's a lot of designer stuff that's not that well-made anymore that's actually that is pretty cheap that doesn't like necessarily have the longevity of what designer luxury pieces might have had like 10 20 years ago so i guess it's more of a question like what are

36:27Emma: you actually paying for now it's interesting when you look at the really really really expensive of things, whether it's like buying a Maserati, when you're in a recession or when there's a dire financial, like global state of affairs, those types of purchases don't decrease because the people who are impacted by are so insulated because they have so much money. This is to sidestep away from bags for a second. But have you noticed a huge increase in friends that shop at places like Zara or Uniqlo? When I went on my holiday recently, I sent a message to one of my best friends and I said, you know, like I'm going away and I really want to invest in some nice pieces.

37:08Emma: Can you send me a couple of suggestions of things? And she's, by the way, got the most impeccable taste and also is a designer and has worked in high-end fashion for a really long time. Now, let's just say she knows that my budget is not in high-end fashion. But every single link she sent me was Zara. And she said, look, low-key Zara's killing it at the moment. Like these are obviously really affordable, but, and I loved all of it. And I think that there's a bigger story here because if you look at those businesses, whether it's like Gap, Zara, Uniqlo, like a lot of them are reporting really good profits and actually increased market share because they're doing all sorts of really clever things with designers, with collabs.

37:51Emma: like I and you know it's an interesting piece right because there's only so much people will pay for a Zara piece because they know the quality is nowhere near as good but when I got sent these pieces I mean they came in these big beautiful boxes they're thick material sure they're definitely not anywhere near the quality of something that is like luxury and designed to last forever neither but it's a sure a shit increase on what I used to buy from Zara.

38:14Soph: Also I wonder if there's something in that that now also trends are just changing so much faster because we're all online so much and we know that like the rapidity with which things come in and out of fashion because of social media where trends i mean we don't just operate in kind of like fashion cycles as dictated by you know uh fashion weeks and that sort of thing and like the magazines aren't like necessarily setting the fashion trends in the way they used to now it's instagram influences now it's social media which just we know move so much faster the rapidity with which trends are changing means i wonder if we're also then looking less to buy those long-term investment pieces that might you know mean that we're happy to invest more money in a few key pieces that last for longer but actually we want to be following the trend people are happier to pay less to buy kind of what's new and trendy at Zara knowing that that's probably going to change a few months and then they'll get new things new things also we're all taking pictures all the time and you want a different

39:07Emma: outfit in your pictures in an era where we're all so stretched and inflation and cost of living is so enormous there's very few people that have money to spend on yeah really expensive things but yeah I think it just comes down to really being aware of like what do you consider an investment and also defining and like an investment is something that will increase in value yeah I mean I don't know about you but I've bought no pieces of clothing that increase in value some of them maybe held it okay but not really also I buy things to wear them and we know the

39:38Soph: second you're wearing something like the only way I can imagine something retaining value is if you keep it in this box like if you're like you know if you bought a designer piece i suppose and kept it preserved perfectly in a tissue box for years maybe it would retain but i don't want that i'm

39:51Emma: unaware what i buy but it's the same with a chanel bag even if you bought one that is being is following that price increase which they do deliberately because they know it makes an investment and there's waiting lists for them and they they really purposely hold the supply so there's not an abundance of them you know it's very clever the way that they do it so sure there's some things that you could consider an investment but also before you buy something like that like look at the resale like how much are you paying to resell it how much are people and also are they in pristine condition because i know for sure if i had anything chewing them in the bottom loved like yeah yeah it's it's it's adored i would say pre pre overly adored but if you look at then the luxury industry and you know we're saying that lvmh is down 40 this year like that's an enormous drop like it's like quite bad and then you might be like okay but like where's the money going are people investing in you know uniqlo whatever and i actually just wanted to share some research because i think it's quite interesting what we're talking about the idea that people are going to more like mid-market brands that have really good like design quality but are also at traditional prices they're not like luxury but they're not you know cheap as chips uniqlo's parent company so who the company that owns Uniqlo is called Fast Retailing.

41:06Emma: They reported this year, FY2026, the revenue was up 16%. So they made$3.96 trillion. Yeah. So it's actually increased while all these other luxury brands are kind of falling off a cliff. Basically their business profit in general is up over 30 % and it's their fifth record year in a row. So they're like doing better and better and better. Then you look like Gap and Zara and both are currently trying to move beyond that really like basic high street fashion and they've done so many designer collabs and like more premium collections and like I've noticed I've seen all these influences like Gany and Lululemon have just done a collab and you look at all of the the both struggling they're both struggling but also like the stuff's cooler it's way cooler and you know you look at those share prices and sure maybe they're struggling but like again back to Bumble like you don't want to buy them when they're doing necessarily well but the financial times they released an article where they're talking about like that those mid-market brands are where i shop a lot like all my basic teas are from uniqlo which we keep highlighting which is so good and it's because they've got good desires totally yeah there's like some businesses that are doing really well in fashion some that are doing really badly but i would just say like this is quite an interesting space i'd i don't know if it necessarily means that people who would be spending on luxury will go and like all of a sudden be spending lots of money on Zara.

42:31Emma: But there's a lot of middle ground people who may have splashed out for more expensive. But the quality of what you can get at a Zara is like pretty amazing. I bought a dress from there. It was like 50 pounds. And I probably will wear it to like an engagement party. Maybe even mine. Hot tip for anyone that doesn't know. If you buy at a Zara, if you have the black label, that is their premium collection. And that's something that you'll see a lot of like almost like mid designers doing. They've got their more stock standard lower price. and then now they've got this premium, cool, well-designed.

43:00Soph: Which, again, just through sheer exclusivity, creates such a sense of desirability based on the perception of it being premium. I just went to a breakfast this morning and there was a stylist sitting next to me who was just in this beautiful jacket, black jacket, so well-cut, so beautifully tailored. I assumed it was like Alexander Wang. It was the H &M, whatever their new premium label is. I mean, that's such a good example, though. It's such a good example where I just looked at me like, that has to be designer piece. But even because it's the premium label, it's like a little bit more expensive, but you're kind of happy to pay that because it looks like designer.

43:35Soph: And again, when you have more and more optionality at a more affordable range, it does just make designer just feel sort of pointless.

43:43Emma: I actually love it. It makes me feel really excited because I think up until now, there's been the really, really expensive clothes and then like kind of sloppy shit. Now there's good middle ground. But like if you look at the trends, like Victoria Beckham did a collab with Gap. Hayley Bieber's done a collab with Gap, Skims and Nike. Like there's all these brands collaborating. And like you've probably run out of time. But if you look at what they've done, they're like a limited collection where it's like minimalist and aesthetic and beautiful. And the price range is higher than what those brands would generally charge.

44:14Emma: It's quite clever.

44:15Soph: But it's also still affordable exclusivity. And I think that's a smart move. In a cost of living crisis, if you can create pieces that give people access to seemingly exclusive, premium, status symbol, clothes, accessories, whatever, but at a price that they can still afford, you are winning.

44:32Emma: But also, if you're doing a collection and it's limited edition, not only can you charge more, but there's urgency because you know that they're going to sell out. And I think it just brings more credibility to those brands. Otherwise, people might have been a bit snobby too. Yeah, totally. So it'll be interesting to see what happens to the luxury space. So we watch it in the luxury market. Everyone adapts, you know, like you hope that they adapt. Fashion, clothes, brands, everyone has always and will always love and care about what they look like. It just depends how these businesses innovate.

45:03Emma: I'm sure if Vic was here, she would say, like, I don't think luxury is dead. But to see the share price dropping that much, yeah, it's just, it'll be quite interesting to see if, yeah, if they can make a comeback and if they do, how. I need more cash in their pockets. Yeah. That's the first starting point. Yeah, I need to buy my food first. Side note, I'm going to really throw her under the bus here. Well, not under the bus. Hopefully she'll like this. Our social media manager, Lucy, is like unreal at spotting really cool stuff for affordable prices. So I'm going to get her to source like five cool things or maybe like a collection of things she sees to be like for anyone that wants to look cool and not spend a fortune.

45:47Emma: she is your girl so maybe we can put that on the on the sub stack if you don't follow us already we'll get her to do a little like collection because honestly every time i see something she's wearing i'm like i love it where's it from and she's got a really good bargain but it's good quality oh so love that we'll stop gatekeeping i've honestly been trying to like push her into it for months i'm like lucy've got to do this but now i feel like it's the perfect time also now

46:08Soph: you've set up the podcast exactly okay well i'll be watching eagly that sub stack because i want

46:14Emma: her top tips yeah they're very good speaking of stunning designer brilliant uh wanting to look great just all of them so we i know i mentioned this earlier on the podcast but we put out a podcast last week on diamonds on natural versus lab grown we're doing a giveaway on our instagram at the moment with michael hill where you can win a diamond tennis bracelet wow and it is really gorgeous so if you haven't already entered go and do that listen to the episode we've had some amazing feedback. It's crazy to see what people think. Oh my gosh, I will be entering. My cousin messaged me being like, I want to win.

46:50Emma: I'm like, sorry. I can't be reading this competition. I want to win. But have a great week everyone and thanks so much, Emma. Bye. Thank you so much for listening to this episode of The Curve. Feel free to leave a comment to let us know what you thought. We always love hearing your feedback. New episodes are out Monday, Wednesday and Friday, so make sure you're subscribed to be notified whenever a new episode drops. In the meantime, we're around on socials so you can find all the links in the show notes. Hope you have a great week and we will see you for the next episode.

47:43Emma: We know you got this.