Can We Cope With This Level of Immigration?

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1:05David McWilliams: To understand the economy, you have to understand human nature. This podcast is powered by Acast. How are you doing there? It is time for the podcast. and if you are now just recovering from the heatwave that we enjoyed rather than afflicted, John, over the last couple of days roasting in Dublin. Absolutely. As they always say, you know, there's no place like home when the sun is shining. Well, I just think it's no country for redheads. It was a Factor 50 fest. No country for old men with red hair. Exactly, exactly. Anyway, John, anyway, tariffs are back on the agenda, I see. I see that he's rattling the old cages again, isn't he?

1:54Rattling the sabres with his tariffs. But, you know, we have until the 1st of August. Which is two weeks. To ignore it. Which is two weeks. To ignore it. Anyway. It's not going to happen, probably.

2:04David McWilliams: The thing about it is it may well happen this time, but the question is how long does it last? How much chaos is it going to sow? How it's going to change global supply chains? Short term, but long term, does this have a significant ramifications for countries that are very open to trade? I would say yes, if it goes ahead. Ireland is, let's not put too fine a point in it, the most open economy in the world. Not the second most, not the third most. So when you add imports and exports together, as a percentage of GDP is off the scale. So we have a huge amount to lose financially, professionally, strategically from a trade war.

2:49I don't think the state has been forward enough in warning people what is at stake. I think it's because they're kind of largely bamboozled by it. Let's just hope, because it is a hope, that the European Union can in some way talk your man down from the ledge. 30 % tariffs would be a calamity for an exporting country like ourselves, particularly if the likelihood is the European Union will retaliate. And you get a trade war. Last time we had trade wars like this was the 1930s. We need no prizes for guessing what happened there. It is one of the four or five ingredients to the Great Recession or the Great Depression.

3:26But so far, the EU hasn't retaliated at all. I mean, they say they have the big bazooka of measures to fire if these tariffs go ahead. But, you know, what's going to happen then? Well, the problem for the EU is that when it comes to trade with America, the EU is extremely divided. So the French and the Italians want to make sure that booze and wine in particular is kept off the table. The Germans in particular want to make sure the cars are kept off the table.

4:00David McWilliams: The Irish, in particular, want to make sure that pharma is kept off the table and that big tech is not used as the revenge mechanism for the European Union, which the French want. What's left on the table then? That's the point. And this is one of the dilemmas of the European Union, is that faced with an existential threat that affects everybody equally, the European Union can actually respond. So, for example, Russia invading Ukraine, almost everyone says, okay, we're all on the same side here. Tariffs on American goods coming into Europe, which will precipitate retaliatory tariffs on the Americans, suddenly then you get the structure of the European economy comes into play and the fact that various European economies have different structures and therefore different lobby groups and therefore different interests.

4:52And the card the Americans have is that they know the Europeans are not unified on this. And as a result of that, they're thinking the chances of retaliatory tariffs from the EU are low.

5:05David McWilliams: In contrast to China, where China speaks with one voice, it's the voice of the great leader. And the great leader said to the Americans, you want tariffs? Come and have a go if you think you're hard enough. We will slap them back on you. So, again, a topic that we're going to come back to in the next week or two. One of the strengths of the European Union is what I call the strengths of weak ties, right? In the network. The fact that the ties between the European countries are kind of weak. And that actually allows the network to grow and to adapt and to change. It's this idea of network economics.

5:42But the problem with weak ties is if you're faced with one unilateral enemy, those weak ties can atrophy the unity of the European Union. And I suspect that's what the European Commission are dealing with now, because everybody has their own special relationship with the United States on an economic and product level. and that always means that unilateral action is extremely, extremely difficult. Yeah, Maloney seems to be the most pragmatic pro-US of all the big EU countries.

6:20David McWilliams: Well, she gets on better. She is from the same intellectual stable as the MAGA people. You know, the Fratelli, the brothers of Italy that she is the boss of, are much more ideologically and philosophically close to the MAGA movement. than, for example, Macron is, or than, for example, the CDU in Germany is. So Maloney has the advantage of, at least her policies are, what they would say, congruent with MAGA. And therefore, they like her. They like her more. She's also a very, very interesting Wiley. And I think in the Italian stages, very brilliant politician for the Italians. She's popular in Italy.

7:02She's managed to play everybody extremely well, the Americans, the EU, all that sort of stuff. And it's actually on that sort of area that we're going to have a discussion, John, today. Because what tariffs show is that running a country like Ireland requires deep, deep strategic thinking. And you can't have all your eggs in one basket. What we cannot do is we cannot outsource the responsibility of our tax base to American multinationals because that lays us A, massively, massively exposed to the decisions of the White House, but B also, it means that we create a welfare state around a very fragile tax base.

7:47Yeah. And if people expect this money to keep coming in and the money stops, then you're going to get what all politicians hate, which is having to take decisions based on austerity, right? And then the question is, however bad austerity was in 2008 in terms of how people managed it, how people accepted it, how people actually reacted to voting, what happens austerity in 2026 when the economy and the society look completely different to what it did in 2008? And I think what we're going to talk about, John, is the link today between immigration and the housing market. And the question is, is it possible in any economic model to get housing under control if you don't control the amount of people who are looking for houses?

8:47and a large part of that is the amount of people who are coming in on new issued work visas. Yeah. And I think the other reason I want to talk about immigration is that I think that we are in danger in Ireland of allowing the immigration issue to be owned by the people who, say, burn them out. In the same way as in the 1970s, the big danger in Ireland, in the 80s, was that the provost owned the flag, that the provost spoke for Irish nationalism. And the state was extremely adroit at making sure that the provost did not speak for the Irish people and did not speak for Irish nationalism. And in fact, the culmination of that is the Good Friday Agreement.

9:33Now I think it's incumbent on the state to take back the issue of immigration from the burn-them-out crowd simply because immigration is an issue for all of us. And if you allow radical people to own that area, and if you cede the political and economic discussion to a radical fringe, they will end up owning it. And you don't have to be a genius to figure out that immigration is the big topic for the next half decade. Not just here, but everywhere. Yeah, more than half decades. It's an issue of capacity. It's an issue of economics. for some it's an issue of culture it's an issue of identity all those sort of sorts but we know you mentioned maloney maloney came to power on the issue of immigration reform in england is coming to power on the issue of immigration or may come to power the afd in germany on the issue of immigration i could go on i could go on like le pen etc it is the issue of our time and if the center decides that we won't touch this because we're going to be called racist or we're going to be called, you know, uninviting and unwelcome.

10:45And then you give the biggest issue facing many countries to a radical group who will use that issue to maximize their potential. And I think we'll use that issue to the detriment of the rest of us. So all of us have to step up and discuss it. I think it's interesting because, you know, we're going to primarily talk about Ireland. But, you know, as you just said there, immigration and housing are two issues that come together and are prevalent all over Europe. Yeah, all over the world.

11:22David McWilliams: I mean, MAGA is all driven by immigration. Yeah, for sure. But you also mentioned about the flag there, and that's mirrored in the UK, the George Cross flag, you know, which was kind of owned, as you said, by the kind of the far right, the EDF crowd and the Tommy Robinsons and reform and stuff where, you know, it is the flag of England and represents everybody. I think Irish people understand this comparison between the provost and the flag during the troubles. And if nationalism becomes exclusively the preserve of a radical group and the provost in any description of radicalism were radical yeah then what you do is you lose control of the discussion immigration is to our present immigration is to the 2020s what nationalism was to the 1980s yeah it's a massive issue and we can't absolve ourselves of the responsibility we're talking about.

12:34And again, when I come back to this basic issue, is Ireland needs immigrants. The health service couldn't survive without them. The construction service, restaurants, retail, everything, right? We need immigrants. But the question is, is there a number on the amount of immigrants that we can actually deal with? because what we know now, as Ireland is presently run, we can't deal with the rising population. We don't have the capacity or the will or the bureaucratic structures because once you get an increase in population or a rapidly increasing population, you need more houses, you need more schools, you need more hospitals, you need more public services, and you need a government that looks competent in the face of these challenges.

13:27Okay, you mentioned numbers there, Mac. Let's talk about numbers in immigration and housing. What is the current state? Okay, so what I think is important for an economics podcast is to have a data-driven, not emotion-driven discussion on immigration. Yeah. What we know is that the state doesn't seem to be able to deal with a rapidly rising population. I'll give you one statistic, right?

13:58David McWilliams: House building. We're supposed to be building, obviously, more houses because the population is rising, largely as a result of immigration. House building fell in June, John. The fast decline in over 18 months. When we're supposed to be building more houses, we're actually building less. And what happens is if you build less houses at a time when the population is rising, surprise, surprise, your house prices rise. House prices have risen in Ireland 7 % in the past three months. The average Dublin home is now just shy of half a million euros, which is crazy. Absolutely crazy. And of course, the punter pays.

14:34David McWilliams: The punter pays, right? Yeah. So you have to figure out who is going to actually pick up the bill for all this. the reality is that immigration obviously increases the demand for housing increases the price of housing if you don't build enough of them right also demand for transport health services all that sort of classroom sizes all that sort of stuff now the interesting thing is economists talk about labor but you can talk about labor but actually labor is people and people come with their families and their families require what families need to live which is hospitals water supply electricity, railways, schools, homes, etc.

15:14So unless you are able to actually provide the infrastructure for those families, what you're going to get is you're going to get a rapid, rapid increase in prices, or a rapid increase in waiting lists, or a rapid increase in traffic, or whatever, because you don't have the ability to, not the ability, but you don't have the actual managerial competence to absorb in enough people. You've always said that demographics is everything in economics. So how have the demographics in Ireland changed over the last 10, 20 years?

15:55David McWilliams: Well, it's the last 10, 20 years. So between 1995 and 2015, the total number of immigrants into Ireland was 1.1 million, nearly 1.2 million. So that's a pace of around 50 ,000, 55 ,000 per year over a 20-year period. Since then, things have changed rapidly. So between April 2022 and April 2023, Ireland welcomed in approximately 141 ,000 immigrants. So you're getting an almost tripling of the rate of immigration, right? This is enormous. So, for example, if we were to absorb in 141 ,000 immigrants per year for the next 20 years, Ireland's population would be nearly 8 million in the republic, not on the island, right?

16:47So we have had a very rapid increase in immigration in the last two or three years. That is putting huge strain on the system. But one other thing is going on, John, which I think is crucial for listeners to understand, is at the same time as we have had this massive increase in immigration, the ability of the state to run the country seems

17:13David McWilliams: to me to have cratered. I'll give you a figure. In the last five years, since the pandemic, government spending has ballooned by 47%, from 71 billion to 105 billion. And I don't know about you, but I don't think we have seen any significant improvement in any infrastructure. We've built no railways. We've built no roads, no motorways, nothing. Like in fairness to the Celtic Tiger era, we built the port tunnel. We built lots of roads. We built 86 ,000 houses per year. Here we have seen government spending increase by nearly a half in five years. And there's nothing to show for it. So it's all gone into this black hole of a combination expanded public sector, of increased welfare payments, etc., etc.

18:02And what you're not seeing is the infrastructure that is necessary to create the conditions to allow house prices to remain stable in the face of immigration. But why is this? Is this incompetence? Is this a function of a coalition? So there's no real decision making there or, you know, it's just so everything's so muddled. Everyone's trying to be all things to all men.

18:29David McWilliams: There's no leadership, John. There's no managerial leadership in the public sector at all. Nobody has skin in the game. And when you don't have skin in the game, when your job and your income and your wages are not dependent on your performance or some outcome, what you get is drift. now what we've had in Ireland is drift and this comes back to the multinationals the reason we've allowed this drift or we haven't noticed this drift is we've had this tax windfall from the multinationals if that were to disappear so one of the problems is it's always been said in business a tight budget focuses the mind you think okay we've got to figure stuff out here we've got to meet our budget targets a loose budget like we have had under this present administration and the previous one.

19:19So the last two Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil administrations have led to the economics of populism, it seems to me, where government spending has gone up by an extraordinary figure. We were talking about 34 billion increase in government spending over the last five years and nothing to show for it. Yeah. Except for the fact that...

19:42David McWilliams: With a bicycle chip. That with a bicycle shift, exactly. And of course, rising house prices. Yeah. So the problem is that immigration is driving up house prices, as well as lots of other factors, supply problems. We can't keep away from the idea that demand, John, is driving up the prices. and all the while you seem to be in the situation where the Department of Transport isn't talking to the Department of Houses, isn't talking to the planners. They don't seem to be talking to the IDA. The IDA are constantly going to the States looking for new business. They are getting new business. They bring the investment home to Ireland and they say, oh, well, we need a thousand new workers and we don't have those new workers.

20:30David McWilliams: So you import the people, you give work visas to people, those people arrive with their families, they need a place to stay, they begin to bid for housing, they then elbow out local Irish people and people get pissed off. And this is what's happening all the time. So it's not the immigrants' fault in any way. They are also, in a way, victims of a totally incompetent policy which is not relating ability to deal with an increase in population with our ability to actually provide the infrastructure. And all the while, people are getting angry. So, I mean, what can you do about it? If you're stuck with an administration that we have and a civil service that we have, what can you do about it then?

21:23So before you answer that, let's do a bit of this. Okay.

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23:40So, Mike, we have rising house prices because of all the pressures of immigration pushing up demand and a severe lack of supply. And we seem to have a government that have run out of ideas or hamstrung or just there's a lack of joined up thinking. So what can we do about this?

24:03David McWilliams: So let's look at the fact. What we're doing is we're looking at house prices. If the housing crisis in Ireland is an emergency, as the state says it is, then the entire economic policy should be driven by making sure that house prices remain stable. How do you do that? So therefore, everything orbits around this target. So let's just think about it from the population perspective. The demand for houses is four issues, right? One is the natural increase of the Irish population. Now, that is what you would call deaths minus births. In Ireland, that's running at about 20 ,000 per year, natural increase.

24:51David McWilliams: So we have about 35 ,000 deaths and about 55 ,000 births. So give or take, we're talking about 20 ,000 a year, right? Yeah. Then we have net migration. Now, net migration is 149 ,000 last year. What is the breakdown of that figure, though? 149 ,000 is broken down into the following, right? About 30 ,000 are returning Irish people who worked abroad or coming back home. About another 30 ,000 odd are EU workers, people coming from the European Union who are completely entitled to work here and live here. About 5 ,000 are coming from the UK and they again are governed by our relationship with the UK.

25:37David McWilliams: that leaves about 85 ,000 to 90 ,000 are non-European workers, a combination of asylum seekers, refugees from Ukraine, which is obviously that figure has fallen now because there's not many refugees coming, and people who are coming here given work visas. So it's that 90 ,000 that you can legally, that's what I mean, illegally affect as a state. So just keep that in the back of your head. So that's the breakdown of the population. So that's the second one is net migration. The third thing that affects house prices, John, is what they call headcount. Now, what that is that if you remember, when we were kids, the average Irish family had like four kids and parents.

26:22So that's six in a house or five in a house, right?

26:25David McWilliams: Now, that has dramatically changed over the years. And now on average, there are two people in a house. Now, what does that mean for a house building? It means you have to build more houses because whereas there used to be six in one house, there's now two in each dwelling, house, home, apartment. So you have to build three of those. So as Irish family size becomes much more like the European average, you've got to build even more houses, right? Yeah, yeah, yeah. And then the last thing about houses is obsolescence, that, you know, old buildings crumble eventually. So you have to replace them.

26:59David McWilliams: So what you have is these four factors, right? You can't change obsolescence because that's a legacy issue. That's inherited. The amount of the housing stock that is over 50 years old. Down the country, that's quite a lot. You go, particularly if you go through country towns, you see, and of course part of the obsolescence is dereliction and dilapidation and vandalism and all that sort of stuff. Vacancy, right? The headcount you can't change because that's the way society is evolving. Fewer and fewer people living in each particular home. The natural increase you can't change because why? That's the amount of babies are born in the country minus the amount of deaths.

27:33David McWilliams: No, you can't change that. So then you've had to look at the migration figure. And you look at, okay, well, of the 141, or let's say the 150 ,000 odd who came in, you have 30 ,000 Irish, you can't change that. They're coming home. 30 ,000 EU, you can't change that. They're legally entitled to be here. 5 ,000 UK, you can't change that. So let's say that's about 65 ,000 odd spoken for legal. Then the question is, of the other 140 ,000, we're talking about 80 ,000 to 90 ,000 who are here on the basis of active government immigration policy that you can legally change. So unless you take out a proportion of these 85 ,000 to 90 ,000 new immigrants who are arriving here, you're never going to stabilize the housing market.

28:28Yeah.

28:29David McWilliams: And I'll tell you why. Do you know how many houses were built in the 12 months to April 2024 in this country? Tell me. 30 ,320. Okay. So you have, right, think of it. You have 141 ,000 migrants coming into the country. You're building 30 ,000 houses. Of course you get a house price increase. Yes. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah, of course. We should be probably building for these 140 ,000, we should be probably building, if you take this two people to every dwelling, right, maybe two and a bit, we should be building up at least 70 ,000 to 80 ,000 houses, right? We're only building 30 ,000. So that means that we have a net deficit of around 48 ,000 houses per year.

29:20Per year.

29:21David McWilliams: Based on present immigration. Yeah. Now, the only thing that's making that some way more palatable is the fact that about 60 ,000 Irish people leave the country every year. So that's taking some of the pressure off. But they are Irish kids in the main. So the problem with the Irish kids is when they leave, they don't vacate a house because they're actually living in the box room of their parents' house. Yes, of course. Yes, yeah, yeah. I'm not talking about data here. I'm not talking about emotion, whether they should be leaving and we should be leaving. I think it stands to reason that you should always, if your own people are leaving in significant numbers, like for example, last week I saw there is an 1800 deficit in the amount of new teachers because it's not that the new teachers aren't being trained, but new teachers are just fecking off.

30:09David McWilliams: Why? Because they can't get a house, they can't afford an apartment and they don't want to commute three hours a day. And pay is probably better as well. Exactly. And pay is better abroad in certain areas. right? Not many areas, but in certain areas. So let's look at the numbers. You've got to come down. It's a numbers game. So if we have a housing deficit of 40 ,000 a year, then you've got to look at the 85 ,000 immigrants who are coming in here on work visas or asylum seekers. And you've got to say, that's the figure we have to adjust downwards. So it's like any economic model. You put in your inputs and you get your outcome, right?

30:48So you change your inputs. It's basic algebra. You change your inputs and you change your basic model. So if the state has said that house price stability is an objective of the state in an emergency, if they make it the number one objective, then of course on the demand side, you have to reduce quite significantly, maybe by half or more,

31:14David McWilliams: the immigration figure that you can, which is the work visas, which are being given out. Now, lots of people will say, well, how do you do that? And this is just about, I presume, government competence. This is about government responsibility. The reason it has been avoided, I think, as a discussion, John, for the last while, is because of the same idea that has allowed public spend drift from 71 billion to over 100 billion. I think it's this idea of it'll be grand, there's no skin in the game, I won't take a decision, etc. Sure, but what's the long-term implications of that? The long-term implication of that is more and more people get squeezed out of the housing market.

31:59More and more people leave the country. And what you're doing is you're doing what all Irish governments did since De Valera. They're looking to the emigration of Irish people as a safety valve in order not to confront their problems. So emigration in the 80s and the 60s and the 50s was an ability of the state to stay in power. So as long as emigrants left to England and America, they didn't become a problem. They didn't become that problem. People on the streets, people pissed off, people voting. In a way, you can say that what's happening is not by design,

32:37David McWilliams: but by default, that exactly the same is happening now. But can I ask you, though, I mean, you know, there's an immigration problem all across Europe. So should, instead of individual states trying to come up with new policies and reinvent the wheel, as it were, should it not be a European-wide policy and border force, as it were? Well, it's interesting. That's getting a bit MAGA, I know, but. Yeah, well, I mean, it's interesting because not all immigrants want to come to the same countries. That's the first thing. And not all countries have the same demand for immigrants. So I think that the issue with immigration in somewhere like Ireland, the data driven issue, not the emotion, leave the emotion for somebody else, the data is on the housing market, you cannot solve the housing market problem with the current levels of immigration.

33:36David McWilliams: It's just not possible. It would be possible if we could get house building up to 100 ,000 houses a year. That's not possible either. That looks as if it's not possible either. So something has to give. It's like Napoleon said, John, because you know we like Napoleon, He's a friend of the show. Yep. He said, to govern is to choose. It's a great expression. So to govern means you've got to make choices. If you don't make choices, you drift. If you drift, the only way in which you can actually escape making choices is if you have high net emigration of Irish people, of voters, which is what we have now.

34:16David McWilliams: Which is why our podcast is listened to in Australia, in America, in Canada, in the UK. There's a huge Irish diaspora, a current Irish diaspora, people in their 20s, people in their 30s, people who've left for opportunity. But one of the reasons they're not coming home is because of the housing market. They're thinking, fuck it, I'm not going to come home and live miles away or in a little shitty box. Wherever I am, I can get a better standard of living. So unless we have this adult conversation, which is data driven about immigration, two things happen. One is the economy drifts, the society drifts.

34:50David McWilliams: And again, the exemplar is the leakage, the fiscal incontinence, the incontinence in public spending, right? Yeah. And number two is you seed the issue to radical people because you don't have the gumption yourself to have the adult conversation with your own people. And that's what's happening in Ireland. And if you put on top of this, John, the potential disappearance of tens of billions or fives or tens of billions of tax money coming from the American multinationals as a result of Dhoni's tariffs, which I don't think will happen, but just put it in the mix. Yeah. You've a recipe for political, social and economic chaos.

35:34David McWilliams: And that is the way we are headed.

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