What Does The Ceuta Incident Mean For Europe?

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1:02To understand the economy, you have to understand human nature. This podcast is powered by ACAST. How are you doing there? It is time for the podcast.

1:17David McWilliams: Now, I bet you that of all the things the Irish presidency forecast, the Irish Department of Foreign Affairs forecast, that they would be responsible for during the presidency of the EU, which, just to remind you, started on the 1st of July with Ireland taking up the presidency. I'd say, John, the idea of stitching together European unity after it fraying last week due to immigration was probably not high on the list of the Department of Foreign Affairs. But that is where we are now. So the Irish presidency needs to try and soothe and calm, fraying European tensions, which resulted from incident in Morocco last Thursday, which we're going to talk about, John.

2:06We're going to talk about the politics of it, the economics of it, the consequence of it, who orchestrated it, what are the theories, who stands to gain, who stands to lose.

2:18David McWilliams: and maybe, John, the most important thing is the idea that you've had biological warfare, you've had chemical warfare, you now have demographic warfare. Yeah, yeah. Somebody is going to use, whether it's a state or what they call non-state actors, John, we'll talk about them in a minute, but somebody realizes using migration as a diplomatic weapon, as a political form of coercion, as a destabilizing force, is now an option. Prior to this, we had, you probably remember, that in Belarus some years ago, at the beginning of the Ukraine war, a strategy of pushing migrants from both Africa and mainly Afghanistan through Belarus to Poland was orchestrated by Lukashenko.

3:14Yes. And they did something similar on the border of Finland as well, the Russians did. Yes. So let's stand back. Given population dynamics and given the relative lack of economic opportunity in Africa

3:30David McWilliams: and given the proximity of Africa to Europe, the issue of migration is going to continue to be one of the main problems facing the European Union. Yeah. Number one. Number two, various different countries have various different strategies. There is no common European attitude to migration. Which is surprising. It is, but it's certain countries like Italy, and we see that last week, wants to have a zero migration policy. And that's what Miss Maloney is all about. We know that in the upcoming election, as we did a couple of weeks ago in France, when we talked about that, migration is the number one issue.

4:13We know that in Spain, which has a very different attitude to migration, or at least Sanchez, the prime minister, has a very different attitude to migration, much more akin to Angela Merkel during the Syrian crisis and Marine Le Pen. We know that in Ireland it's becoming a big issue. We know that in England it's becoming a big issue.

4:31David McWilliams: And of course, when Europe is without a centralized immigration policy, it is weak and it is fragile. And one of the consequences of the events in the north of Morocco last week was just exposing the innate fragility of the European Union. And that's what we're going to talk about today, John. Yes, indeed. And it's just like, you know, reading about this and watching this unfold over the last week or so, it brings me back to this whole hangover of colonialism that crops up everywhere. And there are all these kind of weird anomalies in states like Ceuta and Gibraltar. And I was telling you before we came on air about Pheasant Island, which is another anomaly.

5:23I know it is a little... Oh, you don't talk about Pheasant Island. Just so that you know, Pheasant Island is this tiny little island in the middle of the Pedusa River, I think it's called, just on the border of France and Spain. And every six months, it swamps over sovereignty. Why? I don't know. I don't know. Well, listen, we could go down the colonialization route to the colonialism and the hangover from it. But let's just talk about what happened last Thursday and Friday. Because 50 ,000 potential migrants or refugees or asylum seekers, call them whatever you will, breached a border post in the Spanish enclave of Sueta.

6:10Yeah. Right? This is not a border that is unarmed or unguarded. This is one of the most fortified borders in Europe,

6:19David McWilliams: if not in the world. So it didn't happen by accident. That's the point. Yeah, yeah. Somebody orchestrated this for some end. Everybody who's listening to the podcast will have seen the various different online... Graphic images will have seen the fact that I think 80 or 90 people died, most of them drowning in this particular event. Yeah, yeah. They will have seen the fact that the Spanish Prime Minister, Sanchez, says this was an attack on Spanish sovereignty. And that's what I want to focus on, because the Spanish intelligence obviously believed this was coordinated, orchestrated, and somebody was pulling the strings somewhere.

6:59It wasn't just, oh, look, what happened? The fact that 50 ,000 went into Spain or Spanish Morocco, if you want to call it that, and then they all left, or the vast majority of them left within 24 hours, also is perplexing. Yeah, it felt like a flex of sorts, like a demonstration of what can be done. So the question is, who's we? Who is behind this? Number one. Why would you be behind it? Number two. And what? are the long-term implications of using demographic warfare against your enemies.

7:40David McWilliams: I think that's the very interesting idea, because if it happened once, it can happen again and again and again. And as we said at the top, we saw that Putin was orchestrating this or something quite similar a few years back. And again, his objective was to drive a wedge between various European countries, particularly in Eastern Europe at a time when he was waging war in Ukraine. Yeah, but that was part of a particular campaign in Russia and part of the Russia-Ukraine war. But this is very different. So who actually benefits from this? Yes. Well, first of all, if you think, let's take the Spanish view.

8:24So the Spanish view is that this is an attack on Spain. Now, that language is very, very pointed. So who is Spain's enemy at the moment? Number one is Pedro Sanchez's government has been very anti-Israel.

8:43David McWilliams: It has been alongside the Irish government, maybe the most active. And because Spain is a big, big country, it's much more consequential. That's the first thing. Yeah. Pedro Sanchez has also been very, very aggressive in reasserting Spanish sovereignty vis-a-vis the United States. And of course, they didn't allow American planes refuel in Spain, even though Spain is a member of NATO. Yeah. And Donald Trump has been very, very pissed off with the Spaniards. And not to forget, Mac, that Spain won the World Cup beating Argentina. Well, you're going to say the Argentinians are behind. John's anti-Argentinian feeling has been bubbling up under the surface for many, many weeks, ladies and gentlemen.

9:31And now it comes to the thing. But let's think about who are Spain's enemies.

9:35David McWilliams: The first one is Israel. Yeah. But I also don't want to do the default position of many people and blame Israel for everything. Okay. Spain has become one of Israel's most outspoken critics in Europe. It recognizes Palestinian statehood and it's repeatedly condemning Israel's conduct in Gaza. Yeah. And a much stronger version than anyone else, right? Yeah. Then, of course, we have the relationship with Spain and the Trump administration, which have been strained in recent weeks and months, particularly because the Spanish have refused to support the American policy towards Iran and the Middle East or generally, right?

10:13David McWilliams: And the Americans think, hold on a second, you are a member of NATO. and you should fall in behind us. And the Spaniards have said no, right? And the last NATO summit was in Ankara in June, John. And Sanchez refused to commit Spain to the alliance's new target of spending 5 % of GDP on defense. He said this is unreasonable and incompatible with Spain's social priorities, right? So basically he said, look, we spend about 2.1 % of GDP on military. That's enough. Trump, of course, wants the Europeans to spend 5 % across the board as a quid pro quo for Americans continuing to be the main player in NATO.

11:00So you have these particularly quite significant strains going on.

11:07David McWilliams: Trump himself said that he would threaten Spain with retaliation. He described them in his very eloquent terms as not behaving nicely. Right? They're nasty people. That's what he said. And he said to Scott Besant, you know, please identify Spain. We tariff them, et cetera. Right? Yeah. So his anti-Israeli feeling, his anti-American feeling have been articulated online as being the reason. Right? It was basically the Jews who did it. Yeah. It was orchestrated by Mossad. I think that's my own sense. I think that's two and two equals five. I think many things can be true at the same time. So basically you have the situation that Morocco is one of the very few Arab countries that recognize Israel.

11:54David McWilliams: So of all the Arab countries, Morocco is seen as friendlier to Israel. Yeah. Therefore, people have said Morocco is liable to be a hostage to Israeli policy. and because Spain has emerged as an enemy, or at least in a strained relationship with America, there is an axis that links Washington with Tel Aviv and Rabat. So the way in which this goes is the online campaign that prompted 50 ,000 Moroccans to turn up on Spain's Spanish border in Africa was orchestrated by Tel Aviv with the blessing of Washington to teach the Spaniards a lesson. And in a way, Morocco was just simply the tool in this geopolitical game.

12:46So that's what I've

12:47David McWilliams: seen a lot being discussed over the last 48 hours. Yeah, I mean, it's so complicated, but you do have to ask the question of, you know, there were 50 or 60 ,000, whatever number it was, sitting on the border ready to go. That's what it felt like as well. Exactly. And of course, there was the variety of online footage of Moroccan border guards just opening trucks full of lads spewing out and getting across the border. So that's one conspiracy theory that it was all the Israelis, right? And that I think there's very fertile ground for those conspiracy theories all over Europe at the moment, but particularly, I think, in our own country.

13:26David McWilliams: Then there's another conspiracy theory that the other people who stand to gain from this are not Israelis, but Islamicists. So what you have is that all Arab countries or all Muslim countries have incipient Islamicist movements. They tend to be marginalized in certain places, like in Morocco. They tend to be front and center in certain places like Syria and Iraq. But they're always there. So is there another conspiracy theory which says that is islamicists want to portray morocco now by the way we're going to talk about the moroccan economy the moroccan economy is one of the strongest in africa okay even though it's got incredibly high levels of unemployment it is still regarded as the one arab stroke north african economy that is most likely to do most well in the course of the next 10 or 15 years so that's number one i've been there to morocco myself three or four times i've been to casablanca a lot of people have been to Marrakech as tourists.

14:31And it has a feeling of a society moving in the right direction. It's got a lot of luck, direct foreign investment.

14:37David McWilliams: In fact, many people believe that Morocco will become the car manufacturing center of Europe over the course of the next few decades, given its proximity to Europe, given the technological transfer from Europe, and of course, given low wage rates. And they're also a huge recipient of Chinese investment, up to about 10 billion in the last few years. Yeah, so it's a country that is not a failed state. It is a country that's institutions are strong. It is a country that's monarchy seems to be very strong and seems to be popular with the average person. When I was there, they referred to the king, not in the sort of absolutist way that you get in some other Arab monarchies, particularly in the Gulf, you know, to refer to you, can't say a word against the...

15:23David McWilliams: Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. No, but there seems to be a sense that the country is going in the right direction. They also were in a very celebratory mood. You just mentioned the World Cup. The Moroccan football team accounted themselves extremely well. So, you know, this is not a failed state, right? But the Islamicists would like to portray it as a failed state. For them, Morocco is not Islamic enough. It is too liberal. It's home to far too many Christian tourists and European tourists who come down. And if you've been to Morocco, certainly outside Casablanca, If you want to have a drink in Marrakesh, you can find a drink.

15:59It's the sort of the most liberal leaning of all Arab countries. And again, because it's so beautiful, it also has a large Berber population. It's a fascinating place. And again, John, as a man who likes to walk, the mountains, mountain ranges of Morocco

16:18David McWilliams: are an ideal place, an amazing place. I was up there making a documentary about eight years ago, and it was so remote, so beautiful. The Atlas Mountains, unbelievably beautiful. And populated by Berbers, not Arabs. Yeah, yeah. So the other conspiracy theory is that Islamicists are behind this. So the polar opposite to Israelis, and the Islamicists want to open up another front against Europe because what they know is what freaks out the Europeans and will prompt the Europeans to react is the notion of mass Muslim immigration. And what Islamists want is for Muslims within Europe to be victims of what they would see as a white European crusade against them.

17:07And that can percolate down into the Arab countries to strengthen the Islamist cause. Now that is another conspiracy theory that's been thrown about. But could those two theories, conspiracy theories, be true at the same time? In the same way as, for example, Netanyahu was very happy to encourage Hamas all the way through. Exactly, exactly.

17:29David McWilliams: In fact, if your long-term agenda of Mossad is to undermine the European Union because of the European Union's pro-Palestinian stance, then anything goes. Then, you know, you do whatever it takes. to sow division and imbalance amongst your enemies. But yeah, I mean, I'm just always curious as to why America, particularly the Trump administration, is so obsessed with European immigration. You know, it's very bizarre, isn't it? It is bizarre. But before we answer that question, John, just one other last thing. You said there was two conspiracy theories. One is that it's orchestrated by Washington and Tel Aviv using Morocco.

18:13David McWilliams: The other one that it's actually homegrown Islamicists trying to undermine the Moroccan government and the Moroccan state in order to ferment Islamic instability within Morocco and trying to create a caliphate there. And then the third one is that it's actually coming from Morocco. That in order to curry favor with the Americans and the Israelis, it's the Moroccans undermining the Spaniards. There have been all sorts of suggestions that when Spaniards have opened up negotiations or closer to the Algerians, the Moroccans are pissed because the Algerians and the Moroccans have beef in Western Sahara, except that this is all going on.

18:56And then the third thing is just that Morocco is itself on the front line of mass migration from sub-Saharan Africa, going through from Sudan, from Mali, from Nigeria, going through Morocco, from Ghana. But the great example of that, I think, is the Spanish footballer Nico Williams, whose mother apparently walked from either Ghana or Liberia. Yes, that's a great story. through the desert, through the Sahara, through Morocco to get to Spain. So Morocco itself is on the front line. So rather than Morocco being the front line, Morocco itself, its southern border is the front line. So there's all these things in the mix here, John.

19:40Then you ask the question,

19:42David McWilliams: why are the Americans so obsessed? Well, it's not the Americans with European culture. It's MAGA America is obsessed. Sure. And I think the reason is because the world, or at least American Europe are involved in a culture war about what society should, can, and will look like. The MAGA Americans are obsessed with undermining the European Union. Why? Because the European Union is the only place in the world that offers a lifestyle which is comparable to the United States, and most Europeans would say it's superior to. So part of the American dislike of Europe is the fact that they think Europe is woke, liberal, tolerant, but more importantly, the European Union offers an alternative to MAGA.

20:35David McWilliams: And MAGA is nationalist, it is sovereignist, and of course, what it therefore likes to do is to support nationalists, nativist, sovereignist movements everywhere else in the world, whether they be in Argentina, in Milay, or whether they be in El Salvador, or whether they be in Europe. Yeah, I mean, that's incredible. The US State Department set up this grant program offering grants and funds to any European organization of up to, I think,$5 million that supports kind of MAGA-aligned ideologies and stuff. I mean, that in itself is... I don't have a problem with that because the State Department for so long would have given grants and things to anybody who supported sort of democratic leaning, democratic party leaning.

21:25Sure, yeah, okay. It's just the shoe, the boot is on the other foot these days, right? Sorry, that's the expression, isn't it? The shoe's on the other foot? Yeah, whatever. Your nice slip-on brogues are on the other foot. Exactly. Brogues on the other cuss, John. That's exactly what's going on. But listen, it is crucial for MAGA to portray the European Union as a basket case, because

21:53David McWilliams: the European Union offers a living, breathing example of an alternative to the American model. But on the other hand, 70 or 80 % of Europeans, when surveyed again and again and again, say they want less migration, not more migration. They want integration, not isolated ghettos of various different ethnicities and religions in their cities. And they want slower migration in general. So the American MAGA movement are much more aligned with the sentiment of the average person in Europe than, for example, what they would describe as the NGO movement, the lanyard class that we spoke about the other day, people who go to conferences all the time, who are, in many cases, articulating ideas of mass immigration, which are inconsistent with the average dude.

22:50And why are they inconsistent with the average dude? Because the average dude knows, abstracting all cultural notions, the average dude knows that if you've got more people coming in, you've less houses. If you've got more people coming in, you've got competition for education, for schools, for welfare, for health, ultimately for pensions in the long run, John. So people do understand that. And there's nowhere in Europe that people have said, you know what we should do? We should have more immigration. There's nowhere in Europe, right? Apart from Angela Merkel's Germany back at the time. And that's flipped.

23:27Exactly. The alternative for Deutschland were the response of Germans to immigration. So what the enemies of the European Union really realize, whether they be Russian or they be Israeli or whether they be American or whether they be Chinese, what they really understand is the gap between the ruling elite and the people is most significant on the issue of immigration. So on the issue of taxation is not a huge gap. On the issue of public spending is not a huge gap. on the issue of infrastructure, there's not a huge gap. Actually, on the issue of climate change, there's not a huge gap. But where there is a massive gap between the NGO or lanyard class

24:14David McWilliams: and the average dude is on migration. And that's the first thing. And number two, they also understand that Europeans are now very, very aware of the demographic explosion of Africa, that we Europeans know that at the moment, 19 % of the world's population live in Africa. So let's say 20%. Europeans know that in the coming 70 years, it's going to flip where over half of the world's young population will be in Africa. And of course, unless the Africans get their economic act together, migration is going to be the issue. And then the third issue is that for many Europeans, culturally at least, the Mediterranean used to act as a border to Africa.

25:09David McWilliams: So Europe stopped at the Mediterranean and the sea was in effect the border. Now the sea is the bridge. Now the Mediterranean is the route into Europe. So that's why you had the Italians reacting so quickly. Maloney wanted Spain to be kicked out of Schengen. Well, not quite kicked out, but they wanted to suspend Schengen for a period. So you could not leave Spain without having a passport. Yeah. Whereas up until now, you can't leave Spain without having a passport. The fact is that 22 two leaders out of the European 27 over the weekend sent a letter to Ersa von der Leyen saying that Spain is at fault, that Spain is the weak link, that Spain is the one that can protect its borders, and that Spain is the weakest link in the European anti-migrant chain.

26:12Now, that is a phenomenal act of sabotage of the institutions of the European Union, which are meeting today in Dublin, because the institutions of the European Union always and

26:27David McWilliams: ever say, if we have a problem, let's sort it out behind closed doors and let's have a unified front. Can I just say, though, that seems really harsh, you know, given Italy's form with Lampetusa Island and Greece's form with the other islands that, you know, all the migrants. What was the name of that island? We're arriving at, you know, none of those 60 ,000 migrants that climbed the border or got around the border in Ceuta made it to mainland Europe. So that seems a little harsh. this comes back to our point john about who benefits if you look at the text that was sent think about it 22 leaders including italy and germany yeah they wrote and i quote we cannot allow uncontrolled mass crossings or other hybrid this is a quote hybrid threats to create the perception that a legal entry into the European Union is possible.

27:31David McWilliams: Now, that is a back reference, John, to the ambiguity that was articulated by the Spanish Supreme Court two weeks ago, when they ruled that, and it wasn't that you can come in, but it wasn't necessarily going to be a direct deportation offence for migrants to come in to Ceuta. So what you see is this amazing and I think unprecedented fracture within the European Union that probably will only get worse. So let me ask you then, what do you think the impact will be on Europe and what does it say about the future of Europe and European unity. But before you answer that, let's do a bit of this.

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30:08So the reaction to the 60 ,000 plus migrants from Morocco invading, you know, in inverted commas, Ceuta, what does that say? I mean, the reaction across Europe has been pretty stark. You know, as you said, 22 of the 27 leaders of Europe have sent a letter to Ursula von der Leyen condemning Spain. But what does it mean for Europe, for the future of Europe? And what does it say about the unity at the core of Europe? Okay, what it says, right, first thing is that the European Union's institutions were set up in order to avoid this type of public spat. That's the first thing.

30:54David McWilliams: So what is happening in Dublin this week is the European Union, through the Council of Ministers, is having an emergency meeting to try and find a common position, to try and de-escalate this. But at the core of this is the cultural argument between globalists, or let's say European Union devotees and nationalists. So the whole idea, the whole promise of the European Union for so long was that the differences between European countries would gradually but progressively become so small that a European federalist state could emerge. This has been the dream of Brussels integrationists since the very start, since 1957.

31:44Yeah.

31:44David McWilliams: And as I said at the top, I don't think it was on anyone's bingo card in the Irish Department of Foreign Affairs that their first emergency meeting would be to try and smooth over, not cracks, but chasms. Chasms, great valleys and chasms of differences between not small European countries, but big European countries. So what you have is France and Spain on one side and Germany and Italy on the other side. And of course, France is the one that is most likely to move in the German and Italian way in the course of the next year. Because as we know, Le Pen is miles ahead in the public ratings and she has made immigration her big thing.

32:37David McWilliams: So this is not going away. and of course the enemies of the European Union, which we've articulated are out there, some implicit, some explicit, and the threats to the European Union, some demographic, some political, some militaristic, etc. And don't forget, there is still a war going on in Europe where the European Union is 100 % pro-Ukraine, but that's also quite fracturing too. There's also quite a lot of people who are saying, let's do a deal. So all these things are coming at the same time. sitting in the middle is Ireland, which is trying to use Irish diplomacy, which I call nod and wink diplomacy, to try and bring people together.

33:22David McWilliams: Now, if you are in the camp, John, that says that the Israelis were orchestrating all this, well, then they will have managed to punish their two biggest enemies in Europe, the Spaniards by turning everyone against the Spaniards, and the Irish by showing that the Irish will be unable to find a diplomatic solution. And as a consequence, the idea that small countries are important will be regarded as yesterday's news. I happen not to believe that, but I think there's a lot of people who would like to believe that because it feeds into the prevalent mood of the nation at the moment. But I think it's much more likely that we have now seen what the next phase of diplomatic and political warfare looks like.

34:07And it is demographic warfare. It is weaponizing refugees, it is weaponizing economic migrants, and it is ultimately going to drive a cleavage between the elite and the people, the rulers and the ruled, the globalists and the sovereignists, the internationalists and the nationalists, and ultimately the economists who will create all sorts of stories to say, well, there's great benefits from immigration and yadda yadda yadda yadda, my tribe. And ultimately, cultural warriors, nationalists, who will say, yes, there might be some economic

34:54David McWilliams: benefits, but the cultural dislocation is far too much. And nothing terrifies the European mind more, John, than seeing thousands of young Muslim men streaming through a barrier, a border, because in people's heads, whether we like it or not, borders are meant to protect. And that is the implicit message. You have a border to protect you from something out there that isn't you, it's foreign, it's alien, we don't want them in our country. And when you see those images, whether they be on Facebook or Instagram or Twitter or on the nine o 'clock news of young fellas surging forward, that affects European voters on an emotional level.

35:39David McWilliams: And the long-term consequence of this will be, I think, to chip away at the credibility of the European Union. And the response to this, John, will be much more severe restrictions on migration in the coming half decade. That, I think, is why we're doing this podcast, because it's much bigger than just one event. It's a confluence of events that are chipping away at Europeans' sense of stability, of order, of discipline, and ultimately of protection. And that, I believe, will be the medium-term consequences of stuff we saw over the weekend on our phones. Can the European Union project survive?

36:31Yes, because the European Union project is always fashioned in crisis. But if you look at a world where Brexit has already happened, where Le Pen is in power in 12 months' time in France,

36:51David McWilliams: where Maloney is in power in Italy, and where the AFD and in Ireland various different nationalist parties emerge, right? The European Union can only survive if it reflects the will of European people. And therefore the idea that a European Union run by and populated by people who believe in open borders and people who believe that we can integrate everyone into this one big happy family, that disappears. is the European Union, begins to look, dare I say, a little bit more MAGA-ish than ever before. And that, I think, is the long-term upshot of what we're seeing both in the polls but also in the reaction this weekend to events in Morocco.

37:41MAGA, you mean. Exactly, exactly. Talk to you soon.

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