Why Some Countries Create Jobs and Others Export People

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0:40La prueba de Cologuard no reemplaza la colonoscopía en pacientes de alto riesgo. No uses Cologuard si has tenido adenomas, si tienes enfermedad inflamatoria intestinal y ciertos síndromes hereditarios o un historial personal o familiar de cáncer de colon. Pide la prueba de Cologuard a tu médico. Para más información en español, visita cologard.com-prueba.

1:49David McWilliams: Para entender la economía, tienes que entender la humanidad. Este podcast es powered por ACAST ¿Cómo estás? Es hora de la podcast Hoy, John, comes de muy, muy far away I am down in the tip of Africa I am in Johannesburg capital of the Republic of South Africa and again an amazing city On your jollies again, Mac. On your jollies again. On my jollies, John. I'm working hard for you. I'm working hard for the listener. I'm... For humanity. You're working hard for humanity. I'm working hard for... Nobody works as hard for humanity as I do. No. I gave a speech yesterday, and I'm going to give one tomorrow, and then I'm going to come home.

2:42But I've been here... I arrived here on St. Patrick's Day, John. Yeah. And I got out of the taxi y went into el bar de la hotel, el Cullinan.

2:54David McWilliams: Y es interesante, la influencia de los que hicieron es todo el lugar. El Cullinan fue obviamente un nombre de los que hicieron y fue a través de una ciudad en la provincia de Gautang, que fue probablemente Transvaal entonces. Y fue donde se encontró la mayor, o una de las largas, en la primera de la ciudad de la South African Bonanza, que fue una Diamond Bonanza. y de hecho, ¿qué fue? Un giro llamado Thomas Cullinan. Thomas Cullinan fue, de hecho, de irish extranjero. Su padre había sido en la british army y había sido killed en la british army y fue born en South Africa. Pero, que es un aside, porque, de nuevo, hablaba de la diapositiva el otro día, 100 ,000 personas con irish pasports vivían en South Africa.

3:45David McWilliams: 100 ,000 personas que fueron born en Irlanda. Ahora, ¿qué es mucho, mucho older que la compleja de los australianos de Irlanda? Pero no es que se han ido aquí. No es que se han ido aquí. Se han ido a un tipo de identidad. ¿Cuándo se han ido a iris? ¿O se han ido a un masque? I think they went en apartheid. ¿Verdad? ¿Qué? ¿No se han asustado? No, no, no, no. Duns workers, but actually the Duns workers are remembered here John and we're going to do a second podcast on that because I'm going to be going to Soweto tomorrow and we're going to do a significant sort of ANC history, economics etc links with all over the world Of course you, you had her as well I did yeah As did Sheena, my wife she was actually really good friends with him Yeah no he became the water minister here in South Africa Ahora, bien, que es un gran trabajo en un país que fue blighted por ridículamente pobre infraestructura, porque, de hecho, el apartheid regime solo gave water a los blancos, sino que los blancos.

4:53Así que, hay un montón de conexiones, hay un montón de similarities, pero el moderno South Africa es un fascinante, fascinante lugar. Pero, John, yo walk into el bar de la Colna. Oh, sí. Y yo, ¿qué es lo que yo walk into? I meet at the bar, seven prison officers from Manchoy. ¿Qué? ¿Qué? ¿Qué were they doing there? They were a retirement gig Wow You're so far away from home, right? And you're the last thing, you know You're in Africa and it's hot And there's the African vibe, there's the smell Whatever, and I walk in and one says How are you? You see huge prisons It was a prison officer, Mount Joy's Screw, retirement junket They'd actually, four of them had retired And three of them were still prison officers Oh, brilliant.

5:40Y ellos eran aquí por un día. Así que se puede imaginar cómo eso ha terminado. Se puede imaginar. En Paddy's night, yo solo walked in y me saw estos chicos con los grandes leprechaunos en los huesos. Y me pensé, esto es un poco weird. Y me dijo, ¿qué te lo haría hacer aquí? Y me dijo, ¿qué es la prisión de los hombres? ¿Dónde te joinedan por un poco? ¡Cosé, sí! ¡Cosé, sí! ¡Cosé, sí! ¡Soy, sí! ¡Soy, sí! ¡Soy, sí! ¡Soy, sí! ¡Soy, sí! ¡Soy, sí!

6:09David McWilliams: Today I want to talk about employment, Joe, because I want to actually talk about something that really isn't picked up on that much. I'm down here to advise and to chat to South Africans about very high levels of unemployment that they have here and what can be done, what should be done, what might be done, etc. That's the first thing. y así los africanos tienen un intractable problem con el empleo el empleo es ruso a un 30 % aquí ¡Wow! 30 % ¡Sí! Y de acuerdo, el población es explotado Así que hay un primer mundo económico en ciertos áreas un increíble productivo, extractivo económico como minería porque básicamente todo es todo el mundo aquí Right.

7:01David McWilliams: Gold to diamonds to rare earths, everything. And then side by side with that, you have a sort of an informal economy that isn't generating enough profit to generate enough job opportunities. And all the while, of course, that makes the place politically very unstable. And it makes people who have money in South Africa fear for the future and try to get money out. So they suffer from capital flight. y significa que South Africa, despite its enormous potential, y el enorme potencial de sub-Saharan Africa, this is the future. The future of the world will be populated by people from here. That's the amazing thing.

7:43David McWilliams: In 2070, in 2070, the majority of children born in the world will be born on the continent of Africa. But that is phenomenal. I'll give you another statistic. Last year, there were more kids born en Nigeria alone than were born in the entire continent of Europe. Right? Wow. So this is the future, but getting from here to there is going to be incredibly, incredibly difficult. Although it must be said that politically this place is really quite stable. I actually was at the conference yesterday, I spoke at Cyril Ramaphosa, spoke to the South African president. Yeah. And it was just very interesting hearing him.

8:22David McWilliams: It was quite interesting. Basically, you know these guys en el momento de la elección, porque Ramaphosa, de hecho, era el negocio de la negociación de Mandela en el transition. Así que ha sido un año, mucho tiempo. Y ha sido un año, mucho tiempo. Y rather de hablar de la economía y lo que están haciendo, él abrió el speech hablando de apartheid y la legación de apartheid. Pero él fue obviamente plane a su constitución, porque la ANC riskó de ser wipedado. la ANC no es la base de la base de los que se han sido. En el sentido que cuando Mandela se han ido, cuando Mandela se han ido a la la de la libertad, ¿verdad?

9:04David McWilliams: La sensación de la ANC sería el gobierno de la futuro en perpetuación para Sudáfrica. Ahora, se han tenido 40 % de la votación y se han perdido a muchos de diferentes coaliciones partners. Es muy claro que Ramaphosa wants to go back to his ANC apartheid roots and reinforce the idea that they were the party that won the struggle. And they have this legitimacy. But are they like the kind of party that have, they've served their purpose at this stage? You know, their main focus was bringing down the white government, you know, dismantling apartheid. Yeah. And now that that's done, even though there's loads of work to do, you know, they were the kind of single issue party.

9:50y lo que pasa en muchos países es que, ¿no? Nueve partes que se ven con diferentes y diferentes abordes a la política. Creo que la map aquí es la India map. La Congress Party.

10:05David McWilliams: La African National Congress fue nombrada por la India National Congress que es la parte de Gandhi. Pero más importante, la parte de Nehru, el hombre que construyó India. Y Nehru fue en power en India desde el 50 y 60. Then there's Indira Gandhi, who was not related to Gandhi, was actually related to Nehru. Unusual, but she had the Gandhi surname. And it's only now, in the last 10 years, that India is now run by the BJP, which is the Hindu Nationalist Party, which were always regarded as beyond the pale by the Congress Party. So I think that's the sort of model. You're absolutely right, that basically the baton is passed.

10:42And what you find now is that everything is through the prism of these big elections, particularly local elections coming up. But that be that as it may, John, what is fascinating here is that the potential of South Africa is so evident everywhere. There's a sort of an energy,

11:03David McWilliams: there's a dynamism, but the challenges are so enormous, like the levels of inequality are off the scale. I think it's the most unequal place in the world. I think the amount of even driving in, you know, from Cape Town Airport a Cape Town, which is, of course, the jewel of the crown, there are massive townships and there are new townships as well as old townships. And the flight from the villages goes on all the time. South Africa also attracts a huge amount of migration from Namibia, from Angola, from Mozambique, of course, from Nigeria. They can't stand the Nigerians here. Every time I've been in a taxi, every time I've been in a taxi, I say, is this dangerous?

11:44Is that dangerous? Is this, you know, what's going on? And they just, all the taxi drivers, Blackfellas, They all just say to you, it's the Nigerians. I say, the Nigerians are getting it. Come here, Mike. What actually constitutes a township? Is it an unplanned kind of shanty town or is it...

12:00David McWilliams: Well, what you're seeing now is lots of the townships, you mentioned Katerasmal, lots of the townships have been converted from tin shacks to actually concrete buildings over the last 20 years. But the demographic pressure is so enormous, es la cantidad de personas, la cantidad de bebés que han sido born. Lo que se puede ser que los hombres de la ciudad se están en la calle. Están en la calle de la calle. Sí, como un campo. Sí, sí. Es como un campo. Pero ellos son enormes y siguen por miles y miles y miles. Y no hay sanitario, John. Electricidad es todo gerrido. Hay un tipo de ruedas all over el lugar.

12:40Y ellos tienen su propio interior economía, pero se caracteriza por muy, muy altos de pobreza, muy, muy altos de educación, muy, muy altos de crime, de violencia, violencia contra women en particular es un problema de violencia. Pero, again, just violencia contra la pobreza, John. Y por la pobreza, y gangs,

13:01David McWilliams: y drogas, yo me estoy hablando de extraordinario problemas, y entonces al mismo tiempo, yo estoy hablando de un país que la gente que en 1990 se descanse into civil war and it didn't. They've had six elected presidents. The presidents have come and gone. The constitution has held. The democratic process has held. There is obviously an emerging black middle class. You see it everywhere. The big issue here is a thing called BEE which is Black Employment Empowerment and that's rules of how many black people you have to employ as a big employer and again it's very very controversial because a lot of white people feel that this is just simply giving jobs to people who don't deserve it on the base of their colour.

13:48This is the stuff that Trump hates and why he says there's a genocide against white people in South Africa. I've been speaking to loads of Afrikaners and they just laugh at that. The Afrikaners are... They take the visa though. Only about a hundred of them took the visa, I think. Or maybe a couple of hundred. They're very unusual, they're very, very big, they're very macho but they have a weakness. para khaki hot pants, John, que realmente freaks me out. Es como si se cruzan a village people con un vore trekker. Lo que se ve es este muy strange que es un poco homoerotic. Muy tight khaki pants con estos realmente macho guys.

14:26I see you've got yourself a pair. I've got two of them hanging up here en el baño, along with the mankini I'm going to wear tonight when I go out. Pero, let's talk about 1990 porque 1990 es el gran año de Sudáfrica porque es el año que Mandela se ha lanzado, es el año que el proceso se ha lanzado, es el año que FW de Klerk le dice a los africanos el juego es up, lás, we are a minority we cannot go on like this y en fact apartheid es un amoral position to have y gradually but definitivamente white South Africans accepted that lots of them emigrated a huge amount of white South Africans emigrated

15:06David McWilliams: fearing what they thought was going to be a civil war or fearing what they thought was going to be the Zimbabweization of the place. The Zimbabweization of the place is the Robert Mugabe model, which is that you expropriate all the white land from the white farmers, you yank up inflation, you're deeply corrupt, you're anti-democratic, the army is deployed to, in effect, be the police of the state, of the government, That has not happened here. So none of this has happened here. The constitution is held firm. The legal system is held firm. The democratic elections have held firm. There's a lot of positives.

15:46David McWilliams: And we'll talk about them tomorrow when we, on our Soweto, on our Soweto tour. But 1990, John, of course, this week, everybody in Ireland is, and of course I'm getting home for it, for the big match against the Czech Republic. Yes, yeah. The nation holds its breath. the slender shoulders of Troy Parrott upon which the entire expectation of the nation rests. Parrott for president. Exactly, but it brought me back to the 1990s, to Italia 90. Yeah. And there's going to be lots of nostalgia about it. And you'll remember that we were actually the better team, I think, against Italy in the quarterfinals.

16:25But Toto Scalacci. No, we were, we were. The Italians weren't that dominant, right? So you're in the Eternal City. You're in Rome, you're playing the hosts in the quarterfinals, and I think we acquitted ourselves very well apart from the fact that we lost. Scalacci, as I told you about Scalacci, you know, he was the most hated man in Ireland, and my cousins had a crappy dog, and the dog was so hated that it was called Scalacci as well. The legacy of Scalacci endured in the McWilliams household in that there was a dog in the house called Scalacci because he was a bit of an eejit of a dog, and that's it.

17:00Do you remember he came back years later para un Smithix beer ad. I do. So he was kind of an anti-hero here. He became an anti-hero. Absolutely, absolutely. But you see, the word Toto Scalacci, the name Toto Scalacci in my head conjures up images of mullets, of bad teeth, of white fellas breakdancing outside the central bank. In their shell suits. In their shell suits. Yeah. Pink shell suits. Also we had Satzenbrow. Do you remember the beer Satzenbrow? Satzenbrow, yes. brewed in Dundalk pretending to be from Germany which I thought was really quite good Oh really? I didn't know that I've been had Of course we were had but it also reminds me John you might remember of when Charlie I don't know how he managed it but he managed to get on the pitch in Rome after the game and he saluted his people as if he had been Jack Charlton, as if he was responsible for the whole thing ¿Dónde he climbed the fence?

18:02I don't know how he did it, but it was an extraordinary thing. Charlie was waving at his subjects all over the place. He was some man, wasn't he? The Mussolini playbook, which was obviously figured out or thought up in Rome, was something that our friend Charlie loved to take selectively. But, Joe, it was also a period of queues outside the American embassy

18:29David McWilliams: de gente que emigrate. Los queues en 1990 led to the Morrison visa en 1992 where 40 ,000 visas were given to Irish. I think you got one and gave it back. Is that true? I did, yeah. I gave it back. You immigrated. Do you know what you can do with this visa now? Do you know what you can do with this visa? But it was also the era of high and incredibly high levels of Irish unemployment that the biggest problem El economía era jobs, jobs, jobs. I'll give you a mad statistic, John. En 1990, there was 1.1 million people working in Ireland. En 1950, there was 1.1 million people working in Ireland. So the 40 years, 40 years between 1950 and 1990, unemployment did not budge, whereas the population rose quite dramatically.

19:28David McWilliams: lo que pasó es la que yo vive emigramos lo que emigramos de bien las primeras smilingенить en la lección de me donc le dije to be la passions que puedes no no no ni un pero , pero la ä hoe no lesdefense a mas to really pas their head around pero there was a boom la ras la ras are supposed to boom in tandem with your neighbours. So their demand drags you up. There was a boom in Britain under The Hatcher. There was a boom in West Germany under Helmut Kohl. And there was a massive boom in America under Ronny Reagan. And we didn't get affected positively for any of those, which is extraordinary. Which shows you just how decrepit the economy was and just how underperforming the economy was.

20:23And I remember even graduating y creo que la trinidad class era muy pequeño que yo la pure economía class cada uno de nosotros cada uno de nosotros emigró a no uno era en el año después de la graduation no uno pero eso también added a su boom el boom en el UK y el boom en el Estados de of course de of course porque you're getting educated people for free somebody else has paid for them yeah right and this is why migration always adds to the GDP of the host country because you get people for free. Then it just all depends on the quality of the migrants. If you're getting highly educated migrants whose education is being paid for by another country, you're doing very well.

21:06If you're getting low educated migrants, then they become a significant bleed on the state. I think the Danes have done a lot of work on this. The Danes are unforgiving in terms of their honesty at this debate. So they're very happy to put out, you know, criminality figures for migrants. que se han puesto de welfare figures para migrantes, whereas en Ireland we have been, I think, we are so policed by our own weird conscience that we're not prepared to put out these sort of statistics because the state believes that this would encourage racism or have you. I think the Dames are probably smarter, but that's for a different podcast, Joe.

21:44That's for a different podcast. So Matt, just go back to Ireland and the employment figures. Give us the figures there because they sound extraordinary. Employment hasn't grown en los 40 años hasta 1990 y luego algo cambió

21:57David McWilliams: algo no cambió Irlanda ha sido probable el mayor productor de jobs per head de cualquier economía incluso, dare I say incluyendo China que es extraordinario 1.1 million people at work en 1990 entre 1990 y 2005 Employment expands to 1.9 million So we add an increase of 800 ,000 In those 15 years Which is about 72 % A 72 % increase On 1990 figures GDP expanded annually Every year from 1995 To 2000 Faster than the French and German Post-war miracle Which the French and Germans still hark on about They call it the golden 30s The golden three decades Our employment growth and GDP growth was faster.

22:53Amazingly, after the 2008 crash, John, most people feared that the rate of unemployment went up to about 15 % here. People thought that would be permanent.

23:01David McWilliams: The economy just simply added more and more jobs every year from 2014 to 2025. Employment growth has risen on average 3.5 % per year. Y hoy hay 2.83 millones de personas que se han empleado en Irlanda de la fuerza de 2.96 millones, que es el mayor en record. Así que muy pronto, John, según esos números, se ve como si hay tres veces más personas que se han empleado en Irlanda en el próximo año como en 1990. Es un extraordinario figure. Todavía en Europa, el empleo de la renta ha ido down desde el 1990. ¿Qué fue la inspiración de esto? Si te ha gustado, cuando las cosas cambiaron. Ok, así que cuando las cosas cambiaron, creo que lo que nos olvidó es que una de las grandes cambios fue que la Berlín Wall fell.

23:58David McWilliams: Cuando la Berlín Wall fell, el gobierno de América decidió expandir su footprinto en Europa. They said, OK, the communists are gone. American, let's say, Pax Americana is going to come in. People will join the world trade. They'll join the gas. Taxes will fall. And we can actually put our factories in Europe to avail of this huge bonanza that's going to be demand in Europe. As soon as communism is over, all these Central European countries are going to be liberated, right? So the perception was that the Americans would invest in Poland, East Germany, Czech Republic, those sort of places, right?

24:39David McWilliams: They had an industrial base and had an industrial legacy and were much, much cheaper than anywhere else. And a skilled workforce, even though it wouldn't have been as up-to-date technically as the Americans, but they had a skilled workforce. Instead of that happening, American corporations started to invest disproportionately in Ireland. So you get the emergence of the likes of Intel coming in, changing the dynamic for the engineering sector. You get an Irish industrial base, which is in effect an American capital base. And this, of course, leads to a change in perceptions of whether or not Ireland is risky.

25:20David McWilliams: Because the 80s have been characterized by three currency crises in Ireland and by a fiscal crisis in Ireland. So there was always a fear that Ireland was risky. There was capital flight out of Ireland. There was a thing called dirt tax where everybody denied that they actually had bank accounts abroad. And there were like hundreds of thousands of people. They had an amnesty in 1990 expecting to get a couple of, I think, maybe 100 million, which was under the mattress. They probably got about a billion, suggesting that there had been a huge amount of money stuck away in Ireland, right? Yeah. Under the mattress.

25:57David McWilliams: Y por qué se stuckó la ley fue porque había siempre un miedo que el gobierno iba a bankruptar el país porque ambos Charlie Hawley y Gareth Fitzgerald, a un par de ellos, fueron dreadful economic managers aunque Hawley proved que fue mejor en el final y Hawley decides que el fiscal house en orden en 1988-89 y de course se empieza a cut en spending esto ha el impacto de reducir interest rates pero creo que un gran factor en 1992 en la crisis la crisis la devaluación de la punta contra sterling y contra el euro la mayoría de la central bank de la época y de la época que cambió la prices de la prices así que se became cheaper de anywhere else para hacer business ahora de course lots y lots de economías no van a ir back a eso y decir que es consequencial porque la entire economic fraternidad as far as I can remember said we could never devalue, it would be a disaster right?

26:58But in fact the devaluation I think was what kicked off the change in relative prices that kicked off, and again this is ironically, this is what you would actually do economic textbooks would say that but because Ireland was driven by and large by economists who were adjacent to the banking system and the state, they thought that

27:18David McWilliams: devaluing the currency was tentative to surrender, kind of ridiculous idea right? So I think that was the first thing. Then you get the Americans coming in. And then, of course, what you get is people start to come back to the country in the 1990s, right? I had it all for most of the 1990s. So did you. But gradually, a lot of people who'd gone to London actually came back with skills and ideas and a bit of money and a bit of know-how and a bit of network. Y, of course, then the final thing is, John, after the devaluation, when everybody said, OK, Ireland is grand now, it is devalued, so it's competitive enough to join the euro, Irish interest rates fell progressively from about 15 % in the early 1990s to around 3 % in the year 2000.

28:04David McWilliams: Ahora, de acuerdo, lo que eso hizo es que la falla de interest rates kicked of the housing bonanza. Y la housing bonanza, por generar un gran aumento de demanda, porque la gente se ha convertido en el dinero, creó la sort de interna demanda que generó la sort de jobs que se empezó a ver creando. Así que hay dos o tres temas de política, número uno. Vamos a ver con los Estados Unidos, número dos. so the actual dividend what I would call the Berlin Wall dividend goes to Ireland not to Czech Republic because the Americans feel happier here, they feel more secure we speak English, all that sort of stuff and then the final thing, and I wouldn't underestimate it John, is the ceasefire in the north because the ceasefire in the north and the beginning of the peace process suddenly changes the international image of Ireland, so you're not I mean most people thought we were living under conditions of a civil war here through the 70s and 80s.

29:04People would ask you when you went abroad, is it dangerous there? And do you get shot at? And we could laugh at it, but that was the perception. And of course, that perception is not good for economics, John. Wars, as we know, we're going through one at the moment, John. As we know, wars are not good

29:21David McWilliams: for perceptions of economics. If you then have a ceasefire and that ceasefire sticks, entonces, de acuerdo, el mundo de la economía, el mundo de la economía, el mundo de la economía, cambia. Y la ironía, si hubiera un país dividendos, y creo que hubiera en la 1990 y early 2000, y luego, hubiera un país, no hubiera un país. Esto es el interesante. La República de Ireland se ha un mayor parte de la país dividendos de la Norte de Irlanda. Y es la República de Ireland's economía que cambió tremendo. So you have peace, you have joining the euro, which reduces interest rates. You have the housing boom, the beginning of the housing boom, which makes people feel wealthier.

30:05You have the Americans coming in and the Americans preferring to invest in Ireland and not invest in continental Europe. Also, you could probably, the Americans were not required to have trade unions.

30:18David McWilliams: This was a very big step for the Yanks. The Yanks didn't want to go to a country like France, where the trade unions are incredibly powerful. y creo que lo que sucedió en irelanda es que la negociación se quedó en el shoulder de lo que sucedió en england en la 1980s cuando Thatcher destruyó british trade unions creo que la irish trade unions said a themselves no hay que hacer eso lo que vamos a hacer es que el gobierno con estos tiempos entre la guerra entre la guerra y la negociación y todo eso pero básicamente la negociación la guerra es changing y tenemos que figure cómo podemos mantener relevant.

30:51David McWilliams: The last thing we want to do is be destroyed as they were in the UK. So is there another game, a kind of a third way game to play, which is exactly what they did. And that of course allowed the Americans to come in and have non-union policies in the multinationals. And all the while of course you have the education system that was seeding a very, very robust cohort of workers que estaban de educación. Once esos trabajos came out of education y nos fueron mucho cheaper porque nuestros wages eran mucho lower, then la productivity probablemente para los americanos looked eye-watering y le dieron, y le dieron, Y de acuerdo, la taxa, el gran tema.

31:35No, no, no,

31:37David McWilliams: no, no, no, no, lo que hay es un extraordinario positivo confluencia de eventos. Y eso es lo que drives los empleados de la figura de 1990, de 2008, de la guerra. Entonces, después de la guerra, lo que fue a la periodo de austeridad y el resto, pero la figura de la figura de la figura de la figura de la figura es aún muy fuerte y la economía está aún aún aún. ¿Qué pasa después de 2014 y lo que va a pasar de ahora hasta el futuro? Pero antes de eso, Mike, vamos a hacer un poco de esto.

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33:56Ok, Mac, this es un extraordinario story de Irlanda siendo una nación que tiene 1.1 millones de personas employed en 1950 y aún no 1.1 millones de personas employed en 1990. Entonces, things changed, which you explained. Y nosotros fueron el celtic tiger, el celtic tiger, el celtic económico en el mundo. Entonces, el crash hit.

34:22David McWilliams: Entonces, ¿qué pasó? Entonces, lo que es interesante es que la creación de John ha acelerado. since the crash. Okay, and this is interesting. Some of this employment miracle is definitely down to the IDA and Enterprise Ireland, particularly the IDA. The IDA has attracted in about 312 ,000 jobs in foreign-owned firms, which is a huge amount. Good job. And Enterprise Ireland supports, yeah, Enterprise Ireland supports about 250 ,000 people who are in Irish-owned companies. So those supports have been incredibly beneficial. So the IDA, since 2021, alone John has supported 973 investments into Ireland from foreign companies which has led to about 80 ,000 jobs created over the four-year period to 2024 right that's yeah so it's huge it's really really good but the story I'd like to tell John is everyone talks about the multinationals and detractors of Ireland would say well you're just a multinational sort of No hay un poeta, ¿no?

35:25No hay nada más que irme. Pero 75 % de todo private jobs

35:31David McWilliams: en Irlanda son generados por Irish businesses, small local businesses. Y creo que esto es importante. These son los heros de la economía de la economía. Y la interesante cosa es que no business, cuando escucho a un político saying que queremos crear jobs, You know that that politician has never, ever employed anyone ever. And the reason is nobody starts a business to give somebody else a job. All businesses are opened with the primary intention of selling a product for a profit. Employees, at least initially, are a cost, like rent, they're just a cost. And the decision to employ people only comes, John, after the product has been sold commercially.

36:18David McWilliams: porque any employer who takes on more people than he has revenue or she has revenue will go bust so they're taken on to fulfill the orders as it were and when they're scaling so basically what you're having is people are employed not before but after the business is successful so the asset test for any business is profit margin it's absolutely crucial because it's the only que se cuenta en un negocio que es sostenible. A profitable company tiene que tener sus costos, una de las que es labor, menos en sus revenue, meaning la key para permanente employment es demanda en el economía y tener una productividad y no crear jobs.

37:06David McWilliams: En fact, jobs son no creados, they son derivados. Jobs son derivados de ongoing sales. Y eso es crucial. So when you hear a politician talk about job creation, that means that that person has no understanding of the process whereby the economy generates new jobs, right? Additional employment derives from additional revenue, and it comes after revenue, not before revenue. Now, you might have, for example, a startup, John, that is hoping that its new product is going to sell, but they are unusual, right? Startups are unusual. The vast majority of companies are self-financed, or that means by their internal profitability.

37:53David McWilliams: And those people who take the risk and see the opportunity with their own money and their own time, they turn potential into reality. And they're the people we call entrepreneurs. And they are the ones that make the economy dance. Because without them, there are no products, there are no sales, there's no demand for workers. for the big story over the last three decades. Yeah, we did all the policy stuff there in the last part of the podcast before the break. But the big story, I think, is the emergence of an Irish entrepreneurial class that wasn't there in the 60s, 70s and 80s that has taken risks to open small businesses, particularly when it will be much easier for those people to get a secure job and that somebody else wake up at night and worry about rates and wages and the myriad of other problems that you have, como suppliers y retailers y landlords y, of course, customers.

38:45Los que los que se llengan en el

38:47David McWilliams: medio del día, preocupados por los son los heros de la economía. Y muchos de ellos, John, son no rich. Ellos hacen esto porque es en su DNA. Están desistupes, ¿no? Ellos son los que no quieren a wage, no quieren un insurances, no quieren un boss. Ellos quieren crear algo nuevo y mejor que el siguiente. Y son lo que se llama los criaturas de commerce. Y ellos crean diferente a los políticos. o they think very differently to what I would call the Brahmin class of the kind of high professionals in Ireland, right? The people who got the 600 points in the Leaving Cert. The commercial beasts, the entrepreneurs think very differently and they're the ones that make the economy fire in all cylinders and they were the ones who left Ireland in the 1980s and the 1970s because they realised there was too little demand, there were too many bureaucratic issues stifling them, no hay buena, pero más importante, y creo que esto es importante, que se acuerdan, que se acuerdan de concluir aquí, también se acuerdan de que había un tipo de actitud en Irlanda de que era muy grande para tu boots.

39:52Sí, sí.

39:53David McWilliams: Era esa idea de la tall poppy syndrome en Irlanda que draggedan estos personas y ellos dejaron. Sí. Y luego cuando empezó a volver, cuando yo creo que cuando Irish attitudes became menos besmirching y degrading de la entrepreneuria, de la comercial creature, y se dice bueno, bueno, go do it I think they came back I think without them we would be in the 1980s with them, a million more jobs will be created into the future and if we're kind of going into one of these global downturns John, because of the war in the Gulf and it looks like that it really feels like that now the government, the state in Ireland needs to know the only people who will conduiz ein producto y que que ihan leve aquí porque Irland entrou sin allí

40:59David McWilliams: left

41:06David McWilliams: wing feel now y eso es grand en ciertas áreas pero yo realmente espero que esto no endó vilifying la gente que son los heros de la economía, que take la riscos, que son los que employe otros, que son los que realmente go y say ¿no lo que? Let's have a new product, let's have a new business. These son los sorts y porque son muy disparos, no come de una ideología también, no se está en específico All over the country. These are the people that really make the place tick. So instead of talking about job creation, we should be talking about entrepreneurial creation. Completely. And just creating the environment for entrepreneurs to thrive.

41:50Absolutely.

41:51David McWilliams: Because they are the ones that will introduce the products that will actually risk their own time and their own capital. Yeah. And then once those products are successful, the demand for employment derives from that success not the other way around but then it becomes self-reinforcing because the more people are employed the more wages are out there the more wages are out there the more demand is out there the more demand is out there the more these products can actually fly off the shelves and you get this virtuous cycle but we should always understand that the people at the centre are the non-ideological, in effect, commercial class.

42:34David McWilliams: And they are the people that have come back to Ireland and they are the people, I believe, that with all the talk about the multinationals and the tax takes, you know, the government doesn't understand that you cannot survive, like we said before, on multinationals alone. That gives you the Dutch disease that makes you fragile, it makes you vulnerable, it makes you exposed. And if we're going into a downturn, y obviamente se vuelve a ver el curso de la próxima semana yo sé que voy a Australia pero tú may well ser llamada a la gente para que se acuerdan de la tools de la trade mientras que se acuerdan de Adelaide y drinking fine wine mientras que se acuerdan de la prison officers de Mount Joy por la choice de drinking partners Anyway, we will leave it there Talk to you on Thursday From Soweto

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