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Podcast Episode Summary: The Difference Engine - Episode 68: The Definitive Guide to Category Leadership in 2026
General Information
- Podcast Title: The Difference Engine
- Episode Title: The Definitive Guide to Category Leadership in 2026
- Hosts: Paul Maher and Jonathan Simnett
- Duration: 1 hour 6 minutes
- Podcast Focus: Helping founders and funders maximize business growth through category design.
Episode Overview In this episode, the hosts delve into the evolving landscape of category leadership as we approach 2026. They explore the shift from traditional marketing-oriented category design to a more strategic, future-focused approach. The conversation emphasizes the importance of defining new problem spaces and creating robust ecosystems to support category leadership.
Key Themes
- Transition to a Post-SaaS World:
- Category design is no longer just about renaming or refreshing brands.
- Companies must define future problem spaces rather than simply describing existing problems.
- The SaaS model is becoming stale; continuous innovation is crucial.
- Challenges in Category Design:
- Category failures often stem from cultural resistance, legacy systems, and misaligned incentives.
- Companies must be willing to adapt and pivot from a product-centric approach to a problem-centric mindset.
- Organizational culture can significantly impact category design efforts.
- The Role of Venture Capital:
- The dynamics between category creation and venture capital funding are shifting.
- Investment is concentrated on few dominant players, leading to a "dead-in-the-water" trap for startups without a unique category.
- Founders must recognize the increased scrutiny from VCs focusing on revenue generation and market validity.
- Emerging Trends in Category Creation:
- The importance of outcome-centric categories that emphasize predictable results for clients.
- Composable platforms are gaining traction; investors are looking for interoperability and integration capabilities.
- The emergence of AI-driven solutions is reshaping expectations around product functionality and user interaction.
- SEO and the AI Shift:
- Traditional SEO strategies are being replaced by more nuanced approaches like Generative Engine Optimization (GEO) and AI visibility.
- Content must be machine-readable and provide contextual insights to align with AI-driven search capabilities.
Segment Breakdown
- Introduction to Category Leadership (00:33)
- Discussion on current challenges in category design and importance of strategic thinking.
- Challenges in Category Journey (17:51)
- Key pitfalls in category design and how to navigate them.
- "Dead in the Water" Trap (43:30)
- The evolving relationship between venture capital and category creation.
Key Takeaways
- Define Future Problem Spaces: Organizations must anticipate and define the future problems customers will face instead of merely addressing current issues.
- Cultural Readiness: For successful category design, organizations must cultivate a culture that embraces change and innovation.
- Align Incentives with Long-term Goals: Adjust sales and marketing metrics to focus on category leadership rather than immediate sales targets.
- Adopt Outcome-Centric Strategies: Emphasize delivering measurable outcomes and ensure product design aligns with these objectives.
- Prepare for AI Integration: Companies need to rethink how they design products and define categories in an AI-centric landscape.
Final Thoughts The hosts conclude that while the landscape of category leadership is changing and presents new challenges, there are still significant opportunities for those willing to innovate and redefine their approach. Founders and operators should not lose hope, as the potential for groundbreaking category creation is still present in 2026.
For further guidance on category design, listeners are encouraged to visit [becategorical.com](https://www.becategorical.com/) for resources and consultation information.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VODefining Category Leadership in 2026
0:45 to 3:20
Exploring the challenges of category leadership and the need for new strategies.
“So, happy new year to all our listeners.”
The Shift from SaaS to Outcome-Centric Categories
3:20 to 6:20
Discussing the transition from SaaS models to outcome-centric definitions in business.
“how both the people and the machines will find and engage with your category online.”
Challenges in Enterprise Software and AI Integration
6:20 to 9:30
Identifying the challenges enterprises face in adapting to new category design and AI technologies.
“in a world of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity.”
The New Era of Search: Generative Engine Optimization
9:30 to 13:40
Understanding the transformation of search from traditional SEO to generative engine optimization.
“It is, and it's times for a bit of growing up and growing up quick.”
Emerging Trends in AI and Category Visibility
13:40 to 14:01
Exploring how AI influences category visibility and search relevance in 2026.
“in AIO, there is a bias towards novelty, towards innovation.”
Optimizing SEO for AI in 2026
14:01 to 18:17
Learn how to adapt SEO strategies to leverage AI for category leadership.
“will be higher ranked for these AI overviews.”
Challenges in Category Design
18:32 to 28:00
Understand the organizational and cultural barriers that affect category design.
“We have talked a little bit about this earlier in editions of the Difference Engine and we're now on 67.”
Regional Sales Autonomy and Category Challenges
28:00 to 29:10
Discussion on how regional autonomy impacts category messaging and sales strategy.
“time zones and regional autonomy do make that harder.”
Technology's Role in Category Design
29:10 to 30:20
Exploration of how technology complexity can hinder effective category design.
“Deep European roots, dominant in Europe, strong regional autonomy, amazing technical chops, and global sales decentralization.”
Understanding Customer Needs Over Architectures
30:20 to 32:00
Emphasis on the importance of addressing customer problems rather than technology architecture.
“Ironically, and we hate to say this because it shouldn't be true, but it is, strong technology can work against category design.”
Show all 25 chapters
Incentives and Metrics for Effective Sales
32:00 to 34:10
Analysis of how misaligned sales incentives impact category education and market adoption.
“Huge, powerful technology stack, but incredibly complex.”
Leadership's Role in Category Creation
34:10 to 36:20
Discussion about how leadership and governance are crucial for category success.
“And they're missing the current move to AIO, GEO, AI visibility.”
IBM's Strategic Narrative Challenges
36:20 to 38:40
Insights into how IBM's narrative fragmentation impacted its category clarity.
“I mean, that move by Salesforce absolutely came from the top.”
Market Timing and External Reality
38:40 to 39:50
Discussion on the importance of aligning category design with actual market conditions.
“So, I mean, I've got a lot of time for IBM And there were some really strong leadership moments.”
Lessons from Market Timing Failures
39:50 to 42:04
Exploration of how misjudged market readiness can lead to category design failures.
“This one, you have to watch very closely to make sure that you're aligned.”
Challenges in Category Design
42:04 to 43:38
Learn about the critical issues that lead to failures in category design.
“deeply it's going to challenge the company's identity or if it gets the timing wrong.”
Venture Capital's Evolving Role
43:38 to 45:06
Explore the new relationship between venture capital and category design.
“What do you think people should do if they want some help breaking through all of these ideas?”
The Acquihire Phenomenon
45:06 to 46:48
Discuss the implications of recent acquihire trends in tech.
“So if you strip out the OpenAI scale bets, tech venture activity is actually below$100 million.”
AI's Impact on Capital Allocation
46:48 to 48:29
Understand how AI is changing capital distribution in venture funding.
“You notice the Grok with a Q acquisition recently, which is sort of M &A, but getting around US regulations.”
Category Compression Explained
48:29 to 50:34
Grasp the concept of category compression and its effects on startups.
“Bubbly history repeating itself, I think.”
The Current State of VC-Backed Companies
50:34 to 52:58
Examine the realities facing VC-backed companies in today's market.
“And as recently as 2020, you could raise a series on early category momentum.”
The Future of IPOs and Market Growth
52:58 to 56:03
Analyze the implications of the IPO market for category growth.
“If your category isn't structurally attractive right now, there's no rebound coming to save you if you can just only hang on.”
The Impact of IPOs and Limited Partners on Categories
56:03 to 58:28
Explore how current IPO trends and limited partner pressures are reshaping industry categories.
“You go public once the category is already consolidated and some would say mature.”
M&A Trends and the Fate of Standalone Categories
58:28 to 1:00:26
Discuss the rise of M&A, category cleanup, and the implications for standalone companies.
“Something else we all should be glad about, and it's definitely true from my daily experiences, M &A is back.”
Navigating the Future of Category Design
1:00:26 to 1:01:07
Understand the challenges and opportunities in category design as we approach 2026.
“But just to finish on an up note, for those of you who are building categories, don't give up.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:00Welcome to The Difference Engine, the show for tech founders, investors, investors and innovators.
0:08all right jonathan what's coming up today most of you listeners have been on your holidays recently and so have we now the problem when we go on holiday is we start to do some thinking and that can be a bit dangerous indeed today we're delivering the definitive guide to category leadership in 2026 we'll dig into all the things that can go wrong on your company journey and hopefully give you the tools to avoid them. We'll also review the latest relationship status between category creation and VCs. But first, grab a pad and pen. It's a new year, a new landscape, and there's a new set of lessons for anybody serious about owning their category in 2026.
0:53So, happy new year to all our listeners. We hope you enjoyed our predictions for 2026 in episode 67. So we thought it'd be good to kick off January with what category design feels like right now. What we see are the challenges to organizations in establishing and maintaining category leadership this year. Yeah, it's extraordinary. It's episode 67. Happy New Year, everyone. And like everything else in the world, it seems the tectonic plates of category design are moving. And for instance, we're entering what we believe is the post-SaaS world, where it's fundamentally important to not just think about naming a category, that's the easy bit, but having a strategy to re-engineer ecosystems around it.
1:39Let's face it, SaaS, in our view, has become lazy. Back in the day, you just found a niche, maybe it was paper-based, maybe it was spreadsheet-heavy, and you just developed a front-end, buy some cloud space and exaggerating for effect, away you go. Latterly, it became a bit of a game of fast following. You want a new CRM for your niche, try us or we're better at sales pipelines tools and everybody else and even the market leaders. There was no need for new categories, just rip off an existing one. But we think it's not just about anymore describing the problem you solve. It's how you define the entire future problem space before even competitors think about it.
2:24And that's what it's always been really, right? Yeah, totally. I mean, you know, back in the early 2020s, category design was still way too often thought of as marketing communications. Basically, that means messaging and branding. That's never, never, ever what we thought. you know we're clear it's always been about strategy. Yeah sure and when we work on category design we're always thinking about product architecture we're thinking about partnerships with other folks in the ecosystem we're thinking about how developers and users interact we're also thinking frankly these days about where the boundary is between software and people and processes.
3:11And of course, in this AI world, that means AI driven discovery layers. And in 26, what we think is if you need to succeed, you can't define a category without thinking about how both the people and the machines will find and engage with your category online. We'll be talking a little bit about that. And in fact, we believe the vast majority of the AI platforms, which will succeed, will be the ones that are looking at redefining actual processes again, different not better and leaving aside some of the b2c use cases um like grok let's not go there right now which are very self-serve what we've seen is the most productive business to business ai tools do require humans in the loop at least to customize them or to set them up to their specific requirements because every organization is different that's exactly right you know that That's why categories like adaptive process orchestration, or frankly, many of the other acronyms we came up with in episode 67, they're not just names.
4:17They actually reflect emergent buyer behaviors. And those behaviors are being driven by AI automation and dynamic workflows in restructured enterprises. Okay. And as we mentioned before, the SaaS world feels the pressure of continuous category creation now more than ever. I don't know about you, and maybe it's just because of the break, but we've saved probably thousands by deleting and reducing subscriptions for online services that we no longer need or we underuse. And that's just the way it's going to be for existing category players in SaaS. Subscription or ARR models no longer guarantee either investment by outsiders or market leadership, only continuous category innovation will be the way forward if you want to maintain your leadership.
5:07Yeah, right. The days of build it and they will come are absolutely over. You know, now category success requires you to shape customer expectations, you know, drive ecosystem standards and orchestrate AI enabled value chains that extend well beyond your app. Yeah, and if I may, I mean, this is, you see a lot of value extraction in late markets in tech, where you have consolidators come in, and they just milk the existing revenue streams, investing less and less over time. And, you know, obviously getting fewer new customers, but that's okay, because they have an asset stream, which yields a return, which they like.
5:48And this is very appropriate to enterprise software strategy. at this stage in the maturity cycle certainly of sass companies can't just insert themselves into these legacy portfolios they have to make their own case they need to articulate why a new category matters two very hard people to convince cfos and ccos people juggling digital and ai transformation they've got a whole world of pain you know they've got people to manage they've got ai risk to consider they've got compliance to figure out they've got of course cost pressures all at once in a world of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity.
6:25It's a lot. Right, so that's quite some challenge. So how do you see enterprise software adjusting to this new category design playbook? Well, there's a few of them, and maybe we can talk about these. So one of the first things we see is outcome-centric categories. It's a natural successor to SaaS, if you will, because it used to be hard to set up software, but now software as a service makes it very easy. delivery for your software. But enterprises no longer buy tools or services. The days of wagging your credit card around has gone. They are into, quite sensibly in conservative times, predictable outcomes.
7:05So category definitions revolve around outcomes that imply benefits, as they always have done, really. Things like zero friction onboarding. I can hire people and get them productive very quickly or predictive business continuity. I'm not going to suffer the sort of outages that we saw in last year, you know, really crunching downtime. As we said, in the world of AI, this may mean a blend of software and services, meaning that the reports of the death of McKinsey may be somewhat exaggerated. Indeed. And something I'm definitely seeing in the world of M &A is the importance of composable platforms.
7:44It's not just the enterprise buyers it's the strategic investors looking for acquisitions currently expect interoperability so the categories are now defined by integration and extensibility now at this point we're making early on about you've got to have something surrounding your app and and not just its standard capabilities you know this is all about context not just content if you think about it. But you should note that platforms composed of many AI inputs, LLMs, agents, etc. bring a whole pile of new risks. Yeah, there's a big role here for advisors and for guard railings. So that's interesting.
8:26So you're seeing in the M &A world, if people are not thinking about how they fit into other ecosystems as they prepare for sale, that there's an issue. There's a very, very big issue there. Yeah, and I guess related to your last point about the big role for advisors in guard railing, AI assisted adoption is something that we all need to consider. Tools that come with built-in intelligence that adapts to the context you just talked about. So not just simple automations, that's, you know, table stakes. Assistance that teach workflows as you go. And that changes SaaS categories from automation tools to something maybe more like an enterprise AI navigator.
9:07the self-taught version of the outcome-centric solutions we just discussed. So, you know, this is perhaps the biggest challenge facing enterprises because they literally need to rethink the career trajectory and training for all of these brand new AI-assisted professionals that are now in their workforce. Just like accountants had to move from Excel spreadsheets to Xero when everything moved to the cloud, it's actually fascinating times. It is, and it's times for a bit of growing up and growing up quick. And that's no more exemplified by software businesses in general, even at the early stage, needing to think like platform companies.
9:46That means that, you know, if you have category ambition, your category design has to answer a number of things. So you've got to ask yourself this if you're at this stage, you know, how do others build on top of us? how do we become indispensable in a stack not just installed ready to be replaced as the stack is inevitably rationalized yeah yeah and it's okay uh if you want to build strong foundations for your your category um if you want it to succeed you can't define a category without thinking about how the peoples and machines will find and engage you in the first place you know that's what building a category is all about and that used to mean um let's talk about it seo um and that's just because google ads and a tiny tiny little bit of bing uh used to have the monopoly or duopoly on search which was traditionally what marketing folks at least were obsessed with for the last few decades um and that's where most of the marketing spent where went that was what was behind product-led growth and to me that was a bit of a mistake um ai last year completely transformed search from keyword matching to semantic and intent forecasting at a higher level, literally more words, more context as to what we were looking for.
11:09What does this move away from SEO mean for categories in your view? Well, it's going to be an absolutely huge shift. You know, we're using the term SEO here, but such has been the change. with adaption for AI, new names for this category are emerging. EE, and we've used this one before too, generative engine optimization, geo, or answer engine optimization, EO, or AI optimization, AIO, or our favorite, AI visibility. No acronym there. I mean, to be clear, therefore, here is the task of making content easily digestible and citable by AI, like ChatGPT or Google's SGE, in contrast, and this is a really big contrast, to traditional SEO's focus on ranking links for human users.
12:03Okay, and I think this is a message for all brothers and sisters out there in the marketing world. You might think, in contrast to traditional PR or earned media, that SEO is going to sort of like fade away, but you'd be wrong because earned media with this editorial filter is a key input to this new world of geo a call it what you will chatbot citations and it's funny that after all these years amusing to me that slinging uh two keywords together is finally found out to be not as trustworthy as giving those searching the net actually what they want um and that often involves and again irony upon irony the humble human edited story right so the big message here is now search is generative people aren't searching for phrases they're asking contextual questions and expecting eloquent and dare we say synthesized answers now that means ai agents will recommend software categories yeah imagine an AI agent advising a CIO on, say, best system for distributed workforce automation.
13:15It won't return a list for consideration. It will do the thinking and position a category and specific vendors as an integrated solution. Now, this is hugely important as it changes SEO from ranking for keywords to shaping the semantic space around your category. Right. And also a nuance here and something that we know from the work that we've done in AIO, there is a bias towards novelty, towards innovation. So playing in a category that you've lost, essentially you became the third or fourth player in it, will obviously disadvantage you when it comes to AI search, whereas novelty and new categories will be higher ranked for these AI overviews.
14:08So it sort of pays to be different and not just better. And SEO strategy in 2026 looks more like, here's a category, potential category for you, linguistic engineering. Like that, good. Yeah, and so optimizing for narrative authority or credibility, not just backlinks and cryptic goddamn keywords. You know, optimizing for AI prompt relevance. Training models that associate your category, potentially a new one, with high-value enterprise buying intents, which of course will change quickly. And that means that you need to monitor them. It's not fire and forget with a couple of like, you know, stodgy old keywords.
14:49And structured data ecosystems. AI ingests and recommends your content as authoritative if you get it right and only if you get it right. Here we go back to the old acronym garbage in, garbage out as a rule of thumb. That means having silos of data or having your website not ready to be crawled appropriately is a problem. It certainly is. And in this new world, don't forget interactive content syndication. This is really important because the reality is that AI bots will pull structured data from white papers, demos, product tables, which means that your content must be machine readable by design, by design, not just human friendly.
15:36This has been a boom to those who own authoritative review sites, the ones that list the pros and cons of everything from coffee makers to graph databases. I mean, everybody loves a good list. And nobody loves it more than an LLM crawler. But that said, let's temper that with the fact that earned media content does rank very nicely. So I think, what have we learned here? If you're a company in enterprise or B2B SaaS in 2026, you've got a problem and you need your category strategy to do four things. Okay, so listen up. One, define the future problem space, not just the current one. Yeah, and build ecosystems that extend conscious of AI assistance and AI-powered humans.
16:23Think about the integrations you need. Think about the developer communities you'll need to bring with you. And remember how AI assistants or AI-powered workforces will help your company develop and use that to consider who you're going to hire and when you're going to hire them. Yeah. Next thing you really, really must do is leverage SEO as a semantic authority strategy. And that is one that influences AI recommendations. Yeah, and just on that one, it's a thought, but maybe the SEO folks and processes used here too far ain't going to take you where you need to go. I think the other thing specifically from a category point of view is convert your category into a platform narrative so that buyers and AI systems, perhaps differently, will reference it when they're looking to solve their problems.
17:17Yeah, and it doesn't just stop there because you're going to need to layer on top of that. You need to design your product and messaging so that AI, whether that's internal search, external search, or AI procurement assistance, of which we're going to see a lot more, learns your category first. And that's the real moat. And just like moats that used to surround castles, one worth constantly maintaining.
17:51Think there are too many lookalike tech companies chasing the same markets? We do. We think it's because so few tech startups are able to build and lead their own categories. What matters most is to be different. Stop following and start building your own unassailable leadership position today. Working with the category design gurus at Categorical brings decades of differentiation expertise to your team. Book a consultation from our website today and we will send you our one pager detailing how to start designing your own highly differentiated category. Okay, so you're on a category design journey.
18:32What could possibly go wrong? We have talked a little bit about this earlier in editions of the Difference Engine and we're now on 67. so we thought it would be a good idea to revisit them because as we all know the technology business is highly dynamic though things change and you may need to focus on new things so here we go here's a list of things you really really need to think about preferably before you even go on the category journey never mind look behind you and wonder what the hell's gone wrong so let's start with the big picture. You know, category design fails most often, not because the idea is wrong, but because the company conditions and occasionally the market, we have to admit, aren't really ready for it.
19:23Yeah, and I think you're right. We've been through some of this before, but two years in, it's so worth reiterating because these issues come up time and time again in practice. Like it or not, category design is an organizational stress test. It exposes weaknesses across corporate culture, employee history, organizational structure, sales incentives and much much more and that in a way is almost a good reason to undertake the exercise but it's definitely a mixture of therapy and surgery. Yeah and talking about therapy I'm just going to jump on the consulting couch here and start off with what we think of is what is usually the first blocker and that is good old culture often quite difficult to define but you know culture when you see it i mean one way to think about it one way to think about your own culture is you know are you deeply product centric as a company do you know do the product developers do the product managers hold sway or are you a real listening company are you problem centric and if you are you've probably got an advantage because if you're product-centric, then your category design is going to struggle because you're not looking at it from the point of view of your customers.
20:43I'm avoiding mentioning Grok again at this point. All right. So yes, category design requires asking, what problem do we uniquely solve? And that could be a problem that hasn't emerged yet as a problem. It could be one that customers have but don't realize. In many tech companies, however, the ones we deal with certainly established ones, the dominant mindset is how do we ship the next feature? Or, and I've just read the Mike Lynch book, how do we hit the next quarter's numbers? And way too often, by the time you've figured that out, the problems moved on, and you're solving perfectly for a limited number of yesterday's customers.
21:20That, to me, is satisfying not designing the future. Certainly. And I also see some other issues in in risk-averse culture, and we have encountered a few of these on our journey. And, you know, the category design demands narrative leadership, conviction, and most of all, patience from the top, and we mean from the top. Got a live instance of that right now. And, of course, these internal politics will kill stone dead. your category design desire and ambition if you don't manage it. If leaders are rewarded for protecting existing products and revenue streams, guess what? They'll resist defining the category, even if they really know and deep in their hearts it's the right thing to do.
22:09We call these people Zeds, and often they hide until the very last minute, sabotaging the process very efficiently. And in a way, you could sort of say that's very obvious, they're going to do that sort of stuff. Because most of us are resistant to change. But that ignores the fact that, as we know, and you said, change is inevitable, especially in tech. Yeah, so the challenge here is to move from product-centric to problem-centric. And I think we think a classic example here is Microsoft in the pre-Satcha Nadella days. Yeah, very learned behavior, right? The culture was, let's call it, Bulmer-esque.
22:47Product-division-centric with Windows in all of its various forms, the all-powerful Office suite that sort of ruled our world for far too long, and critically to this day, the Microsoft server business, still, you know, hanging in, throwing off cash, even as your version. And each one of those seemed to divide and rule and defend its own turf. Yeah, and frankly, all this divide and rule delivered a whole series of Pyrrhic victories that made category creation really difficult. um you know the company defended inside existing categories rather than redefining them which given its market hegemony it should have done and of course they just fought against themselves while google and everybody else were making hate yeah i mean like let's remember um let's remember the mobile version of windows shall we good grief talk about uh not making a category right so very understandable right the office suite microsoft's office suite for instance captured almost every single morsel of value in end-user computing for decades with a few misses.
23:53How did they miss Adobe's rise? But you contrast that with Microsoft's later shift towards cloud productivity and intelligent cloud. They sound like categories to me. This is a major cultural reset driven by Nadella, who's widely liked and widely thought to be very visionary. and it led to the reassertion of Microsoft's leadership that we see today. Yeah, well done, Satya. So the next thing we think can be a major problem when you're trying to establish a new category is your own company history and legacy. And that matters more than most people think. So if you're a company that grew up winning feature awards in an established category, it's difficult to unlearn that behavior and move on to the next commercial innovation cycle.
24:42Yeah, especially with that success. Success is a terrible teacher in many ways, and past success can create category blindness. Teams assume the old category definition is fixed. They may have made a significant purchase, maybe a house as a result of all this. History tells us, and especially in tech, this is anything but a fixed world. Yeah, and it's not just about company history and legacy within your company. legacy customers can also be a constraint here. You know, if the company, your company, and I've heard this in so many conversations, is afraid to confuse or alienate its installed base, it won't fully commit to a new category narrative.
25:30Ah, the innovator's dilemma. Yes, very good. Acquisitions create complexity. Multiple product lineages and the personnel associated with them don't call my baby ugly, my code is gorgeous. That often means multiple conflicting category stories. A company I was very familiar with and lived through that exemplifies this story is Intel. So why is Intel a classic example here, Paul? Well, I think their founder, or let's say most famous leader, it was the author of the amazing book, Only the Paranoid Survive, which is a fabulous read, a recommended read. And what's nice about that book is it has real-life management examples of, let's say, how to be paranoid and how to adapt to market changes.
26:17Yeah, the problem is they sort of didn't. And decades of dominance in the category we think of as CPU performance shaped how Intel saw value and shaped how it thought its customers received value. Unfortunately, the customer base was starting to move. I think that's a bit harsh. I mean, they dominated for a long time. They played around in RAMs before they got to CPUs, etc., etc. Looking back, history has made it harder to lead in new categories. If you look at the companies I think you're referring to, mobile computing firm ARM or NVIDIA, those guys had their own little almost accidental breakthroughs, which in retrospect looked like genius, but were big risk-taking, category-defining moves.
27:01Whether they were deliberate or accidental, Intel's strength in one category narrative slowed adaption to new ones, undoubtedly. And that left the playing field open to new category leaders, whether accidental or deliberate, as the market changed. And also something else I noticed a lot when working with Intel was another issue that can cause problems if you're trying to define a category. And it's geographical and organizational distribution. Definitely an underrated factor because it is where you are. The reality is distributed global teams often struggle to align on a single category narrative.
27:46And that should be pretty obvious. So that's something you've got to get over. Yes, there's always that push and pull between control and autonomy, right? Category design needs to be tightly aligned between the leadership, the product teams, the marketing teams, and the sales teams. time zones and regional autonomy do make that harder. I wonder if that's going away a little bit, but totally take the point. Yeah, we'll see. But it's a facet of human behavior that regional sales teams living in slight isolation may also localize messaging to fit short-term strategies and local conditions. And that, of course, although they're doing it for the right reasons, as they say, usually to meet the quarterly numbers, but it does undermine the long-term category story.
28:32Yeah, it's not a category if it's like regional, right? No. So if HQ is far removed from the core customers or the market signals equally, that's a problem. So the category definition can then feel a little bit to everybody in their little silos, like a little bit abstract or internally focused. You have to fight against that whole attitude. I think SAP is, I guess, my favorite simple illustration of such geographical and organizational challenges. And that has absolutely affected how they've failed yet to dominate a new category. Yeah, definitely. Deep European roots, dominant in Europe, strong regional autonomy, amazing technical chops, and global sales decentralization.
29:21Yeah, I mean, you know, the face of it. Fantastic. But that strategy made it difficult to tell a single unified category story, especially when shifting from what became tactical ERP, which was, again, became table stakes, to a broader strategic narrative like intelligent enterprise. Yeah, I think you're right. And oversimplifying vastly, they say no one got sacked for buying IBM, but nobody in Europe, no CFO in Europe got sat for buying SAP. And you could say Oracle did the same in the US. But these broader categories like intelligent enterprise, brand new categories do require mopping up all of that problem.
30:05Because otherwise you get regional sales teams who revert to the legacy ERP positioning. Well, I've sold it to all the CFOs I know. Let's do some more of that. Indeed. And, you know, follow that story and see how it goes. So let's talk about, I think it's the fourth one we've got now, which is, as you might expect, this has to come up at some point, your actual technology and architectures. Ironically, and we hate to say this because it shouldn't be true, but it is, strong technology can work against category design. Yeah, this is where I think the confusion between marketing and strategy when it comes to category design is missed out.
30:43So we're talking about the product strategy, the technology, and the architecture underneath it all, not just the gloss you put on this. That said, if the platform is overly complex or presented as overly complex and often built through incremental evolution, you know, some tactical acquisitions here, et cetera, et cetera, it may not map cleanly to a simple, compelling category. That's just the way it is. Yeah, right. The best category design thrives on clarity, penetrable architectures, excessive configurability, or unclear value boundaries make positioning harder. And this is the real DNA of tech and product development.
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31:26Throwing loads and loads and loads and loads of features, believing that your customer will want them and that will differentiate you, is usually not the way to succeed. Yeah, and this is the doubling down. This is the tech first trap that is very hard to avoid, but needs to be. Because that way leads to you believing the architecture is the category. It's not the problem, defines the category. And customers do not buy architectures. They buy solutions, outcomes, as we said earlier. They buy solutions to their problems, not PowerPoint slides. Yeah, have you got an example of a company that's exactly done this?
32:04I could try Oracle as a textbook case. Oh, I think so. Yeah, yeah. Huge, powerful technology stack, but incredibly complex. You know, years of development and M &A combined, making a technological tower of Babel. Yeah, a bit like a swan. Lots of stuff going underneath. The breadth of databases, how much middleware they bought. And so they're acquired and built. All of the applications that they laterally plugged onto the top of it. And then their cloud services, despite Larry saying it was never going to, the cloud was never going to work. The message at the end of all of that is category simplicity.
32:40Yeah, it is. And customers do struggle to understand what category Oracle is leading, despite its undoubted technical strength. Possibly, because there's lots, right? There is lots, but do they actually lead in any one of them? That's the issue. So do write in, listeners, and tell us what you think. I sort of think, and this is part of their success, but from a category point of view, they've become the new IBM. They're big, they're clearly important, but so what? Maybe it's time to think of something else. Perhaps they are post-category, ultimately exposed at many points across their portfolio.
33:20Well, isn't this why they're buying TikTok or, let's say, licensing TikTok? I think we could make the case for that. So coming in at five, after the tech comes the numbers. And in this, this is culturally related, I suppose, or organization related. It's about incentives and metrics. Misaligned incentives are really, really deadly. If sales teams, for instance, are compensated on quarterly bookings, of course, they'll sell existing categories, not educate the market and sell new ones. Yeah, and it gets worse if marketing becomes trapped in delivering lead volume metrics rather than mapping category adoption or problem awareness, which is way more strategic, obviously.
34:02And they have been for years, right? This problem is currently being felt by waves of digital marketers who for, let's say, a decade were hooked on SEO as their prime lead market. And they're missing the current move to AIO, GEO, AI visibility. Call it what you will. Yeah, they need to adapt too. They do. Another facet of companies that are too focused on product and product development is that those teams naturally, and if I was one of those guys, this is what I'd be doing, I'd be optimizing for roadmap velocity. Particularly if you're venture capital funded, you want me to get down that roadmap very, very quickly.
34:43But that would be to the exclusion of category defining differentiation. Yeah, and without bringing it all back together to the top-level folks that need to be behind this, without executive-level metrics tied to category leadership, the program becomes optional. Optional always loses. It's got to be some tough love from the top or everybody's sunk. Yeah, and it's interesting. I mean, Salesforce has actually talked openly about this challenge during its early category creation phase. um for those of you who are familiar with this pod you may have listened to salesforce's former european chair dr steve sorry the great dr steve yeah go back that's a classic episode 46 if you want to listen to steve on the history of salesforce um yeah and he talked us through this yeah they were inventing software as a service remember and the sales incentives initially pushed their reps to sell a bit more like traditional erp software yeah so they spotted this and it took deliberate changes in compensation, messaging, and metrics to reinforce that new category.
35:46And that is an example of engaged leadership determined to move the company force. Yeah. And without that, SaaS might have just stayed at the Benioff level of slogans. And one of the greatest categories might not have had Salesforce at its helm. But as we've also noticed in episode 66, another goodie, that era could be coming to an end for the mighty Salesforce. Yeah. Think about that, listeners. And closely related, if you're going to avoid some form of category Armageddon, you've got to consider leadership and governance. I mean, that move by Salesforce absolutely came from the top. So if you are going to be a successful category designer, it requires a clear category owner.
36:35without one it becomes everybody's job and and therefore nobody's priority yeah and as we've seen uh with our own work with the likes of pantera strong uh accelerate accelerating category creation relies on a chief storyteller uh and somebody who can absorb the short-term pain of the change uh amitai ratzon's uh ceo uh work there at pantera has personified building an automated security validation category leader, a unicorn with over$100 million in ARR, and well done, those guys. Yeah, if you really want to see what category leadership looks like, look at Pantera and look at Amitai's role in it, leading from the front at every stage.
37:19So if you don't have an Amitai, you get weak leadership and governance, and that leads, of course, to narrative drift. and therefore your investment in category creation is starting to weaken. The problem, it just rolls on and on and on. Different execs start telling different stories to analysts, investors, customers, employees, and even the media. So everybody gets confused. You know, you're not moving forward. You're not staying still. You're actually going backwards because you're actually destroying your existing proposition, never mind moving to a new one. Yeah, and I like that term narrative shift because it sounds really slow, as opposed to pivoting, which is a deliberate fast move act.
38:04And that's something that category design helps with a lot. If you do treat category design as a marketing exercise, rather than a company-wide strategy, it just won't stick. And who do you think did this? You got me. IBM? Yeah. During its transition years, it's a good illustration of the issue. and luckily I did have a grandstand seat watching this happen. There were multiple strategic narratives, services, cloud, AI, hybrid, sometimes running in parallel without a single enforced category owner. And what happened then? The story fragmented. So, I mean, I've got a lot of time for IBM And there were some really strong leadership moments.
38:53I mean, the services pivot was absolutely gung-ho and focused on and achieved with alacrity. The problem was there were weaker governance periods which diluted category clarity, I think particularly in hardware and applications. Yeah, and so I guess it's a lot to do with timing, right? So if the problem isn't made urgent or it isn't yet urgent, the early adopter buyer isn't isn't clearly defined and the company can burn credibility and cash trying to educate the world as opposed to a very tightly defined set of customers too early yeah indeed um and so moving on you know they say that the more you practice the luckier you get so again if you're trying to keep your category show on the road pay attention to market timing and external reality.
39:46This is actually one of the more difficult things to do because all the things I've talked about before, you pretty much have control over. This one, you have to watch very closely to make sure that you're aligned. And I do mean reality. It is a feature of the technology business that many people live in imagined states. And what can happen is, You know, we're just, our brains are going around here thinking of all the people we know that are living in some sort of imagined state about what's going on in tech, you know. But, you know, sometimes you might find yourself in a place where you think everything's going swimmingly because all the internal conditions are aligned, but the market isn't ready.
40:29I've seen this a lot. And that creates a self-protecting internal backlash. I've literally heard so many times, we tried category design, it didn't work. did they really try it? In reality, the timing and the readiness were part of the issue. And I think the willingness to go all in was the majority of the problem. Yeah, I think one of the issues is that tech companies often estimate how fast markets adopt new mental models. And that is the shift in their reality. And you've really got to be, I think humble is possibly the word here, just because a bunch of tech pioneers get it it doesn't mean the rest of the world will or is even ready to which then creates you know um problems i think google glass is a powerful example of market timing um this category consumer augmented reality was introduced before the social norms adjusted and got them into a lot of trouble um you know peaking etc and buyer readiness wasn't there there's something here but but it ain't there yet that's a common problem right we have to be quite generous here the that failure of google glass is is more of a market timing glitch than the technology failure but the problem is if this happens you you can um generate a whole load of sort of told you so um internal skepticism um which can really hold you back when it comes to future category design efforts yeah or when leadership underestimates how deeply it's going to challenge the company's identity or if it gets the timing wrong.
42:10Yeah. So, you know, we tried that already. It didn't work. That becomes the lesson, even though timing is actually the issue. And it'll be very interesting to see what happens with Meta and Ray-Ban's latest run at these intelligent spectacles, which, of course, I'm currently not wearing. So what have we learned from all of this? Well, in short, category design fails when it collides with misaligned culture, legacy success, fragmented organizations, and short-term incentives. My lesson here is if the company is not ready for that level of change, then the new levels of alignment that you need won't happen at any program you introduce is going to stall, no matter how groundbreaking or compelling that idea is.
43:01You've got to watch out that leadership underestimates how deeply a category shift challenges the company's identity or gets the timing wrong. And this is vital to think about because category design is a strategy. But crucially, it's much more than that when you're living it. It's a reorientation of how the company sees itself in the world. So companies that succeed don't just design categories, they redesign themselves to support them. What do you think people should do if they want some help breaking through all of these ideas? Got any thoughts? Hmm. But of course, as we don't do very much on this pod, if you want help breaking through these myriads of issues and having the luxury of somebody looking at you objectively from the outside, you know where we are.
44:08So as we're trying to redefine how we think about category in 2026 here, we thought it'd be worthwhile having a look at the new relationship between venture capital and category that has emerged in the last year or so. We call this the dead-in-the-water trap. And the thing which really got us going on this was reading Silicon Valley Bank's 30th State of the Markets report, which was released at the turn of this year. And to be honest, it confirms what we think the data's been whispering for the last couple of years. We don't have a broad-based tech recovery going on. what we're actually seeing it's a winner take most of the market land grab at the category level and we haven't seen this before oh a cautionary tale from a bank that um very very nearly nearly uh lost everything um which happened to be called silicon valley bank so um the headline says bc is is is back and um question is in a k-shaped market is it when two-thirds of the capital goes into$500 million plus half a billion dollar mega deals, what that really means is VC is back for the few of those category-defining platforms.
45:29Right. So if you strip out the OpenAI scale bets, tech venture activity is actually below$100 million. Now, that's basically flat at pre-pandemic levels. Now, from a category standpoint, that tells me investors believe most categories are already spoken for. And from our viewpoint, and from the long-term health of the industry and economy, new ones definitely need to be created. But we have to ask ourselves, are the conditions there currently to make things happen, or is something fundamentally changed? Yeah, I think you're right. Nature definitely abhors a vacuum. There are new categories to be made.
46:10And certainly, this current concentration should change how founders that are just coming up think about category creation right now in 2018 and 2020 you could build a credible category challenge in an emerging sas uber category so just look for the big guys and drop one level down in 2025 unless you have an ai native meat with platform gravy you're pretty much fighting for scraps and also an interesting development that we've just been chatting about is the new types of acquihires going on. So these are for significant amounts of money. You notice the Grok with a Q acquisition recently, which is sort of M &A, but getting around US regulations.
46:59And they do that by dressing up what is an acquihire with licensing agreements. One could argue Microsoft did something similar with OpenAI, basically gaining control of all the tech without actually buying the company for reasons that they're too obscure to go into. So do we actually need VCs to power M &A at all if we can engineer these weird acquihires? We just grow a small company and flirt like crazy with big tech and take the VCs out of it, no? Let's just hold our breath and have a look at some of the things that stood out for us in this report. So the first thing that jumped right out, and it should be no surprise to anybody, is that AI has dominated capital allocation, but not efficiency, right?
47:45Capital allocation, but not efficiency. AI took 58 % of all VC dollars, yet AI companies are less efficient by almost every operating metric. That's a massive category signal. It means AI hasn't been funded as a productivity level. It's been funded as a speculative land grab. Speculative land grabs? Are they in the news at all at the moment? Oh yeah, maybe, possibly they are. Possibly. Possibly. So, but seriously, lower revenue per employee, worse margins, higher burn. Who would bet on that? That's not accidental, right? It's exactly what happens when the market believes category ownership is valuable at all costs.
48:23And this new paradigm matters much more than unit economics. That's bubbly stuff, right? Yeah, it is. Bubbly history repeating itself, I think. But never mind the dot-com boom and bust. It's happened much more recently than that. This is classic infrastructure era behavior. And if you think back, if you've been in the industry long enough to 2008 to 2012, investors weren't optimizing for efficiency. They were underwriting monopolies with existing power players. And that's dangerous for founders because they can misread the narrative of where they need their nascent company to go. You know, for instance, believing that AI companies by their nature are lean, cheap to set up and rough to scale.
49:07They're just not. This is true at the tooling level. As we know, those credits need to be paid for and it's payback time for some of these investors. But it's not true at the category level. If you're trying to win a foundational AI category, the models, the data layers, the agent platforms and so, you're expected to burn aggressively to shape the future. And that's an issue. That is an issue because one of the things it does, it creates a distorted outcome. A few dominant categories with massively funded winners and a long tail of subscale AI apps that really never escape feature status. So let's talk more about this report because Silicon Valley is a definitive company in funding.
49:56What are the category implications that you found, some of them quite brutal? Yeah, I mean, let's talk about graduation rates. This is, as you say, where things get a bit brutal. It takes about 10 years on average. And remember, we have to talk about averages here because you've got a real wide distribution of effect here. So 10 years on average now to go from C to Series D, that isn't just a capital problem. That's a category maturity problem. and fewer companies are making it because fewer categories are expanding fast enough to support multiple scale players. Now, this is what we call category compression.
50:37And as recently as 2020, you could raise a series on early category momentum. Isn't that the whole point? In 2025, investors wanted proof that the category itself is compounding, not just your product. Yeah, and I like that phrase, category compression, because if you're just better and not different, that's what's going to catch you out. You need to be sufficiently different. And I believe you're also seeing that bridge funding is becoming more normal, even with the top quartile companies. And that obviously signals that category timelines are elongated, although expectations on the time to category dominance are perhaps unrealistic.
51:20Founders and investors, it seems, need to assume they'll be early in the category for much longer than before, which is sort of ironic. Probably a good time to go back to what we said at the beginning here, which is this phrase, dead in the water. The Silicon Valley report cites what we call a dead in the water stat. It's really harsh, but it's really important. Around 20 % of VC-backed companies are neither growing nor profitable right now. Now, from a category lens, that's usually not a team problem. It's a category misfire. Yeah, and it's probably time to pivot, right? From our point of view, there should be little surprise where the issues are in these companies.
52:02They've gone for over-segmented, massively mature SaaS categories, putting an AI wrapper, which has no durable differentiation, markets that turned out to be features, not markets, and easily deployable inside large platforms who will just either create a version of your product, which is a feature of theirs, or acqui-hire. And once the category stops expanding, capital exits first and very, very fast. The key is to create genuinely new strategic categories that are attractive to risk-taking, therefore long-horizon capital. Yeah, and I think that's an imperative right now because the market we're seeing now isn't naturally cyclical enough anymore, as it might have been in the past, to save those who are effectively dead in the water.
52:57So here's the really bad news. If your category isn't structurally attractive right now, there's no rebound coming to save you if you can just only hang on. Yeah, I think the revenue benchmarks are telling a top quartile Series C now needs$45 million in revenue. That's up 65 % just over the last two years. From a category creation perspective, that's basically the economy's future supply of super smart, nothing to lose outside of innovators, a major factor as to why Silicon Valley existed in the first place. But just talking for a second now about pricing in. There's revenue bars. Yeah. Investors are pricing in category uncertainty.
53:46They're chicken. They're saying, we don't believe in optionality anymore. You have to have a meaningful share of a real market or we're walking away. It makes you wonder, what is the point of VCs if they're so risk-averse? Yeah, exactly. And this time is the old playbook where you raise decent money on an exciting vision and plausible category narrative. Now it appears the category story has to be validated by revenue density. Yeah, where's the risk, right? So does this mean AI valuations are leading to a category bubble or a company bubble? Yeah, a category bubble or company bubble. That's really interesting.
54:17I mean, Silicon Valley pretty much calls it out. AI valuations are almost certainly in a bubble. No shit, Sherlock. But it's not a random bubble. It's a category compression bubble. Capital is being forced into fewer and fewer perceived core AI categories. and a few existing category leaders are cementing their power. Is that the natural order of things? The top five AI unicorns are worth more than every dot-com IPO combined from back in the day. That's not about fundamentals. It's about belief that only a handful of platforms will matter. And that's sort of a moral question. Yeah, indeed. And if you think about it, it means that most AI startups are implicitly being valued as options, not businesses.
55:03Yeah, and we've said this before, right? Just in terms of immigration, its role in category pipeline risk, founder-born founders are important, right? Yeah, they are. The foreign-born founder data is striking, but should not be unexpected. 59 of the top 100 US unicorns have, guess what, immigrant founders. The same thing applies here in the UK. And we've featured such category-creating founders. This is Onfido's Hussein Kasai, episode 42. That's episode 42, if you want to listen to what Hussein's got to say. And one is Samir Karai, and that's episode 33. Episode 33, if you want to listen to what Samir has to say.
55:48I mean, a real, you know, in a world in which immigrants and attitudes to immigration really differ, that could be a benefit for those who are a little bit more open-minded but if immigration slows you don't see the impact immediately but just five to ten years down the line when fewer of these innovators create new categories right the ecosystem becomes incremental instead of expansive and the new royalty of tech bros and I wouldn't say they're new anymore I'd say that the royalty of aging tech pros solidify their grip and the regenerative power of creative destruction and tech-based capitalism breaks down right so if you're not depressed enough now we've got some some more stuff we've been thinking about and it's really the the idea that ipos now and to return to what we said near the beginning signal category maturity not growth right so if we look at it the IPO window reopening is interesting of course it is it's what we've all been waiting for because it drags the whole market through but the average growth at IPO is now nine percent not 28 percent as it was when it was previously measured it's much worse in Europe that's because more risk-averse public markets are saying we want mature category incumbents not category experiments it appears and maybe it has them for a while here in Europe that you don't go public to prove the category more.
57:18You go public once the category is already consolidated and some would say mature. Yeah, and something else that's part of this and certainly affecting it is pressure from the limited partners in some of the big VC funds. That pressure is definitely changing category outcomes. And we think it's about limited partner liquidity. Just to remind you, the limited partners of the people that give the VCs their spending money. And I think that pressure is an underappreciated force working in the background here. Well, it shouldn't be. Not to diverge too much, but we need limited partners who are prepared to risk money for this whole thing to work.
58:02But their conservatism and risk aversion reshapes categories. When LPs need cash back, VCs push for it. That means earlier exits. That means more secondaries before we get to IPO, which means faster consolidation, category compression, if you will. And that favors acquirable firms in existing categories, not, you know, moonshots that have a long horizon of building a new category. Something else we all should be glad about, and it's definitely true from my daily experiences, M &A is back. But a lot of it is actually a category cleanup, right? So the volume of M &A is most definitely up, but the outcomes are worse.
58:44Only 7 % of deals return 3x or plus of invested capital because it's not growth M &A. It's a category cleaner. And as we said earlier, large platforms absorbing talent with these weird deals. They're absorbing IP. They're taking customer lists out of their rivals. Yeah, that means fewer standalone categories will ever have a chance to fully materialize. as you mentioned, Paul, and partial buy, it's become the norm. And if you just look at that, you know, the windsurf style deal, you know, you're buying leadership, but not the company. I would argue that's a, we, I think we're agreed on this, that's a destructive warning sign.
59:25Yeah. So what it says to us is the category mattered so much. We're going to make sure it's part of ours to win. And ultimately that means one fewer category. And actually, you know, the message for the CEOs is, sorry, your company didn't matter that much in the great scheme of things. Sorry if this is a lot to absorb, but let's try and break it down a little bit as to what we might learn from this. So I think if I had to summarize this one, you know, this is venture capital, Jim, but not as we've known it. Capital has become brutally selective. Can I take it, Cap 'n? What's the captain got here?
59:59Capital has become brutally selective at the category level. You could say, great, capital is flowing, But it's only flowing to categories perceived as massive, defensible, and monopolistic. I didn't say boring. Everything else is being starved, consolidated, or quietly shut down right now. So what's the message for founders and operators? The real question isn't, is VC back? It's, is my category actually worth winning? Or simply a route to a swift and lucrative exit, building somebody else's category vision? But just to finish on an up note, for those of you who are building categories, don't give up.
1:00:36The answer is, it's 2026. It's all to play for.
1:00:44Thank you for listening. If you want to learn more about category design, head to becategorical.com. If you need help designing and dominating your category, then get in touch. Contact details are in the show notes.
1:01:05Sound Drive
From the publisher
In the early 2020s, it was easy to mistake category design for a marketing exercise. A new name, a sharper narrative, a brand refresh, and job done.
But as we enter a post-SaaS world, that thinking no longer holds. Category leadership isn’t built by fast-following or ripping off existing winners. It’s earned by defining the future problem space before competitors even realise it’s emerging.
Today, we explore what it really takes to lead a category in 2026.
Also in this episode: We’ll dig down into all the things that can go wrong on your category journey, and we’ll be reviewing the relationship status of Category creation and VCs
What to look forward to:
00:33 Category creation in a post-SaaS, post-SEO tech world
17:51 So you’re on a category journey - what can possibly go wrong?
43:30 The “Dead in the Water” Trap - the new relationship between VC and Category
There is more information on how to design your category on our blog
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