72. OpenClaw: Analysing the hype

10:11Paul Maher:Yeah, so talking of cost, Richard Lye said he's seen reports of light Q &A and simple tasks, that's OpenClaw performing those, 10 to 30 bucks a month. Yeah, okay, acceptable. For heavier daily use, this is for coding. The email automation that everyone is a use case, everyone seems to like, please find everybody that's asked me this and send them an automatic response back. that's 24 7 working obviously and that comes he thinks between six and fifteen dollars a day which you know adds up a couple hundred dollars a month um and then runaway automations this is where it gets creepy or scary they can be 200 bucks a day and so he concludes that some people spend more on their ai assistant than their car payments it's an american way of framing things but it's

10:53Jonathan Sim:sort of interesting well hopefully hopefully the ai agents won't spend most of their time sitting on on public property doing absolutely nothing, which is, let's face it, what cars mostly do. They do.

11:03Paul Maher:Right. Jason's, back to Jason's top three issues. And I think these are really crystallized what the problem is here. Oh, orchestration. I'll bet orchestration comes into this. Yeah. Multi-agent orchestration is messy. So he says, and I think this is incredibly honest of him, but you know, it's a picture into the future for the rest of us. He spends most of his time orchestrating and managing agents. Oh, agent HR.

11:24Jonathan Sim:That's what this is. AR, I don't know, AIR. So what's the difference between that and running a company full of people? You spend most of your time orchestrating those people.

11:35Paul Maher:That's exactly right. Yeah. The second thing, and this also anthropomorphizes beautifully, is you need to do constant training, monitoring, and quality assessment.

11:44Jonathan Sim:Yeah. Do they get sort of bitchy when each agent steps on the other's territory? They're going to start interfering in other agents' work, aren't they?

11:54Paul Maher:They're not very clever, right? So they will just keep doing the same thing unless you continually refine it, check for bad outputs, say that doesn't work, try again. I mean, you literally have to go with them. And as he says, you can't drop an untrained agent in and just expect magic. He says it takes months of iteration and ongoing human oversight to reach the performance they advertise. I mean, sort of, I get that. But at the same time, if you believe the hype, you wouldn't think this was an issue.

12:22Jonathan Sim:I can't wait for the hierarchical management agents as better agents manage poorer agents, and the better agents have to report to a human being.

12:30Paul Maher:It's all coming. And the last thing he mentions of the three, so in addition to the constant training and the multi-agent orchestration, is customer experience and risk control. So it's preventing agents, of course, in his case, he's using this to literally speak to potential visitors to his event, going off script.

12:51Jonathan Sim:Sorry, won't he very quickly, his agents, be speaking to the agents of the people going to the event?

12:56Paul Maher:Yeah, of course. And their agents. But we're not at that stage yet. That's a doom loop. Well, it could be an efficiency loop. But he's worried, and very specifically, this rings so true from his business, sending the wrong message to sponsors, that's going to annoy them, mishandling high-value prospects, you know, without being horribly cynical, you know, prospects have different values, and the top, top ones you may not want an automaton to, or even a crustaceous automaton to speak to. And that could involve them making promises that the business just can't keep. Does that sound like a junior employee?

13:31Paul Maher:It certainly does to me. And he frames it all as a trust and brand risk problem, saying the agents can scale, but one or two bad interactions with key accounts and all of the gains are gone. I mean, that's a stressful situation, right? So, OpenClaw, what have we learned here?

13:49Jonathan Sim:Well, this is development at breakneck speed, the like of which has never, ever happened before in human history. This is the ultimate in move fast and break things. And, you know, one wonders what is going to be broken in this. You know, will it go far as basically destroying human relationships and trust and humans being unable to talk to each other and debate because all that has basically been taken over by agents. And the perennial question here is, so what is Jason's 10 unemployed salespeople going to do with themselves?

14:26Paul Maher:Yeah, they're going to need to learn to program the next instances.

14:31Jonathan Sim:Yeah, well, that's a very positive view. Or we could have a lot of very unemployed, very disaffected people, and then we won't have much of a society for these new technological solutions to operate with it.

14:44Paul Maher:Gosh, that got dark. Well, let's be a little bit more positive here. This is the part of a category cycle where fortunes are lost, but also fortunes are made. It's very high risk. And there's clearly some awful mistakes being made right now and also some great breakthroughs, right?

15:00Jonathan Sim:Yeah, it's probably not revenge of the nerds. It's probably a revenge on the nerds. In some cases, you're right. You often think, and I think we're going to touch on this later in this episode, it's the winners may actually be a hybrid of pragmatists and techies and people and technology, as it's always been, because I think these new developments are ultimately just more new tools. and you know that's how we human beings apparently differentiate ourselves from other mammals by being great tool users i mean sorry i've got i've got a friendly local uh neighborhood raven who would probably argue that actually they're pretty good with sticks if open claw is your tool

15:44Paul Maher:um you know one way to look at this is this is great news right and it's great news because powering on ai maybe um maybe just maybe but uh i don't think you've got i don't think most uh folks who want to keep up have got a choice they need to get on board no this is this is happening

16:02Jonathan Sim:it will surface in daily use in some form you know this is a classic example you can't recork the tech genie you know it's here it's been discovered it exists um you know it will have its uses um the issue as ever is is diffusion and you know how when and why will this enter essentially the engines of production in our economy.

16:28Paul Maher:Indeed. So get your mini Mac, get out there, because fortune favours the brave. Yeah, give it a go.

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18:02Jonathan Sim:We've been talking in recent weeks about how Europe is often misunderstood in terms of the contribution it's made to the global technology environment. and certain commentators are reverting to the really, really, really tired, you know, US innovates and Europe regulates memes, you know, stupid comments about, oh, the fact that in Europe you can actually have your plastic top attached to your plastic bottle for recycling. That's a pretty damn good thing, I think. But the reality is, you know, we've talked about where Europe succeeds in tech, but what we haven't talked about so far is some actual category leaders that are emerging from Europe.

18:45Jonathan Sim:And there's a load of them.

18:46Paul Maher:Yeah, and I think we probably have been guilty of being a little bit dismissive about Europe's role in the future of AI. And I think that's possibly because we were looking at, in the wrong places, at the bottom of the stack, LLMs, at the fundamental AI wave, which is obviously US driven, a lot of money being spent there. And it looked for a long time as though that huge wave of cash, of investment, was a defensive moat for the USA. I think that notion is being challenged now. And there seems to be a bit of a stuttering of faith in the US itself that its big tech is going to take all of the pie.

19:29Jonathan Sim:Yeah, well, of course, our friends across Le Mans are being very bolshy about it and saying, well, you know, even the basic enabling technologies of the office or their massive public sector can be replaced by domestic products and supported by domestic companies. Anyway, as we've said before, Europe does well when it specializes building a defensive moat out of deep knowledge of the context of the application and to build an application that you run an economy on, not one that you just scroll through.

20:02Paul Maher:Well, scrolling through might be becoming more difficult because of European legislation, ironically. uh without doubt right the u.s infrastructure play uh and um you know the energy investments the data center investments these things look strong there's massive amounts of money uh circulating uh almost literally circulating between those who are breaking actual ground those who are renting data centers and renting um racks and those designing and installing the AI chips who, yet again with the NVIDIA numbers, are making plenty of money.

20:35Jonathan Sim:Yeah, I mean, you know, if the history serves us well in this, there's plenty of pie left to go for. I mean, just, you know, check out companies like Eleven Labs, you know, based out of the UK, but very global, you know, specializing in AI voice generation, which is, you know, a classic level where AI comes towards a useful application. and that raised I think about a billion recently at a four billion valuation but and Sequoia you know who you all you have to take Sequoia seriously in anything they do and they're one of the grand people of venture capital so they're putting their faith in in this particular application and there's a lot there's a lot more out there yeah I think it's a feathering old cut a billion

21:22Paul Maher:out of 4 billion from, as you say, one of the absolute number one, number two in VCs. Then we've got lovable, like them or don't love them with our friend Harry, etc.

21:33Jonathan Sim:Vibe coding for hotshots, I think we can describe that as.

21:36Paul Maher:Yeah, there may be trouble ahead, but that's okay.

21:39Jonathan Sim:Yeah, that's fine. And this is sort of more foundational level, as is Mistral AI. And they're leading a charge for foundational models, whether they can scale to be as big as the Americans. Maybe they don't need to. Who knows? And does it actually matter because Europe wins elsewhere? I mean, another example of that would be like DeepL. They're doing something that everybody needs, which is solving the problem of language translation in a very connected world. And certainly for Europe, because we speak a lot of languages.

22:09Paul Maher:Exactly. Yeah, yeah. There's Aleph Alpha. We talked about those guys before in Germany. Maybe gone a little bit off the boil, but they're looking at specializing in sovereign, secure, and explainable AI for enterprises in and governments.

22:21Jonathan Sim:Of course, let's not forget DeepMind, fly that Union Jack. And while LF Alpha are looking at enterprise and governments, DeepMind are looking at scientific discovery.

22:31Paul Maher:Yeah, also in biology out of the Netherlands is Cradle, applying AI to biology. Even the gnomes are at it.

22:38Jonathan Sim:So, Ethan AI in Switzerland. And guess what? Guess what? They're focused on industrial AI for manufacturing quality. And if you want quality manufacturing, Switzerland's always been a good place to go and get it. Absolutely.

22:51Paul Maher:And then if you want education, SANA Labs out of Sweden that is specializing in AI for education and enterprise search. Yeah. And if you want to get a little bit more consumer,

23:02Jonathan Sim:how about PhotoRoom in France? And they are pretty much the leader in AI-powered photo editing.

23:07Paul Maher:This is all moving at pace, right? So last year's 2025 sifted AI100 showed at the time that the average European funding was around about$100 million. So nowhere near the level of the US and certainly nowhere near the 11 labs funding that we just talked about. Yeah, that's an outlier at the moment. At the moment. But I guess it raises the question of how much do you need to raise, right? The rise in solopreneurs, literally folks, you know, vibe coding on their own, setting up businesses and trying things out. And the explosion of vibe coding that drove that means that you can create MVPs or minimal viable products very quickly, roll them out, try them.

23:46Paul Maher:So it could be that the reason, the very reason that you needed the funding at the start, which was to buy some kit, to hire some coders, etc., is not there anymore. And so that would mean that big raises are not the defensive moat that many thought they were previously.

24:02Jonathan Sim:It's sort of interesting. I've noticed in my daily conversations in mergers and acquisitions in recent months, a phenomenon arising where we are seeing European companies developing very compelling product propositions and a client base on relatively little funding. And the funding they actually need is to break out of the European market into the US and Far Eastern markets. So the money is going less into the early development of the technology because that has been starved of funds in the past. And they have had to develop their companies in a very lean way. But if you're going to try and conquer the North American market, you need serious funding.

24:53Jonathan Sim:You can't do it unless you're funded. So you have a choice. You either get the funded and go to the States or you sell out. And we've talked before about that in the past being a phenomenon of European tech development, selling out essentially too early.

25:07Paul Maher:Yeah. And certainly we've helped people like Hyper Exponential build their case for A16Z when they got the funding to do exactly that. We've also seen how these things can twist and change a little bit. And AI is relatively new. But people forget that back in the dot-com area, there were some great businesses that were built not simply on tech. They were at the nexus of IT and business consulting. You think of Accenture, multi-billion dollar, very successful business, and the big Indian players who built off the back of the technology. They weren't necessarily the technologists themselves. And certainly a friend of the pod, Hussein Kasai, thinks so.

25:46Paul Maher:He recently dropped out a LinkedIn post. I'll just read a little bit of this now. So he's talking about the 95 % of pilot AI deployments fail. That's an MIT figure that everybody's looking at. But this is the point I think is interesting. Most teams, he says, are burning cash on the wrong bottleneck. Software is becoming a commodity. There's no shortage of agent builders and LLM tools promising 100 % automation. Yet projects still stall because companies ignore the real constraint. The people who know the business and the work of wiring that knowledge into the systems that actually run. I think he's onto something here.

26:21Jonathan Sim:Yeah, I mean, AI, I mean, I think he says this, and it should not come as a surprise to anybody who's done a project to develop anything, is that things fail at the last mile. You know, you've got 99 % done, and the last percentage takes forever, or it completely screws up. And in the case of AI, it's when it really, really hits the real world. So, you know, translating messy business logic into workflows, you know, the permissions, the evals, and the operating rhythms. You know, you can't buy your way through this with, you know, forward deployed engineers. The mid-market just can't. I mean, it leaves a huge gap between buying a tool and seeing ORI.

27:07Paul Maher:Yeah, and I think it's important to remember that history often rhymes, but it never just repeats. And I think there's some lessons learned for European category designers to not fold just because the big tech and the large LLMs happen to be massively funded and based somewhere else. The long-term winners are yet to appear, right? And there's some early signs, of course, that there's going to be displacement of skills like programming, basic enterprise sales, that's just order taking, and low-level marketing roles. certainly you know why would anyone employ someone to do seo it's not a job for a human i mean and i think ai is not playing out as many assumed that certainly many uh who wrote big checks have assumed and some of them are looking a bit nervous now uh as to whether they're going to get paid back but it's all still so so early there's a bit of you know putting moats around data going

27:59Jonathan Sim:on at the moment but you know trying to stay close to human decision makers um you know studying the signals from the market do you really think this is time to passively stand back and watch

28:10Paul Maher:No, definitely not. Now's the time for us all to start bi-coding, to test our hypotheses, and to look for new opportunities and get cooking. Yeah, let's get out there, people.

28:28Jonathan Sim:Think there are too many lookalike tech companies chasing the same markets? We do. We think it's because so few tech startups are able to build and lead their own categories. what matters most is to be different stop following and start building your own unassailable leadership position today working with the category design gurus at categorical brings decades of differentiation expertise to your team book a consultation from our website today and we will send you our one pager detailing how to start designing your own highly differentiated category. So we really couldn't put an episode out at this time in history without some reference again to the SaaSpocalypse.

29:17Jonathan Sim:And what is the SaaSpocalypse? Well, it's about AI disruption. It could be the AI contagion. Is this filling you with excitement or trepidation? If you've been building a firm in SaaS and you're not in your first flush of youth, do you think it's time to bail out? Or are you going full throttle to reinvent your company to take it to the next wave of value? Certainly, there's a lot of debate and a lot of confusion. it matters because for years sas companies built huge organizations hiring for fun and all while their revenues just grew inexorably now things are changing and with recent falls in the valuation of what we have to call these days old guard companies i.e non-i native companies are we at the end of an era of sas dominance now you you know it might be becoming important when the the The revered Financial Times writes a very learned article headed by the title, Salesforce Chief Dismisses Sasspocalypse Fears of AI Overtaking Business Software.

30:32Jonathan Sim:And that Salesforce chief, as we know, is one of our favorite human beings in the world of category and tech, the amazing Mark Benioff.

30:41Paul Maher:Yeah, but do they have a point? So Benioff's coming out swinging here, saying that there is no Sasspocalypse. And, you know, he's dismissed it all as talking about, you know, just not being relevant, despite the fact that his sales, which are still 40 plus billion, 46.2, I think, last time. And his point is, don't write me off too soon. But is he protesting too much? Because his life's work, Salesforce, is in trouble. I mean, he was the original OG category disruptor. He showed Oracle and everyone else who was around at the time exactly how to do it. He bossed it. He bossed the move from client server to cloud.

31:26Paul Maher:And now we're moving to AI and maybe he's got a target on his back.

31:30Jonathan Sim:Well, all great empires eventually decline or have to reinvent themselves, as we are seeing in other areas of society and the economy at the moment. You know, there is that law of big numbers. It's so much harder to grow fast when you're big already. But, you know, he's certainly coming out fighting and very, very bolshy. This is when you know there's a problem.

31:55Paul Maher:Well, here's the Salesforce tweet. This is literally what it says. And it's ballsy, right? Salesforce says, they said enterprise software had peaked. we have just posted our biggest year ever funny how that works ouch wow yeah and then they've got a bunch of numbers uh you know sorry 41.5 billion is the actual revenue number that's 10 percent year on year um 20 percent uh gap operating margin not bad at that size uh 1.5 billion operating cash flow can think of a lot of pe companies who would die for that uh 29 000 agent force deals now that's a product that's got agent in it i'm not sure it's properly agentic but the point is they're coming out swinging here, right?

32:35Jonathan Sim:Yeah, yeah, yeah. I seem to remember certain hierarchical databases when a relational came in and putting little relational front ends on. So just doing a little bit of reporting and somehow hoping people would think they were as good as the fully relational product. And they were better to start with, but then the relational took over. But I think the key issue here is whether you view AI as a massive disruptive wave sweeping all before it and rendering today's approach to building and using systems instantly obsolete, or one that Benioff is currently arguing. Now, we know why he's arguing it, because, you know, as the Irish said, you know, how'd you get to Y?

33:17Jonathan Sim:Well, I wouldn't start at X, but he is at X. So, but he thinks, I mean, his basic argument is that AI has the potential to drive the performance and utility of existing systems to new heights, a sort of SaaS AI hybrid. Now, is he playing for time or simply reflecting reality, right? So after all, you know, know your history, any technology has to diffuse into the economy, and every wave of technology leaves its mark on the next. Now, again, simple analogy. The appearance of the jet engine didn't instantly mean piston engines disappeared. They eventually found aircraft niches in smaller aircraft and propellers and jets combined to create turboprops, which are highly fuel efficient at lower speeds and altitudes compared to pure jets, which makes them ideal to power regional commuter aircraft and cargo planes and stuff like that.

34:14Jonathan Sim:Meanwhile, pure jets dominated the military fighter and made him to long-haul domestic categories, right? But the real issue is what is actually happening in the tech stacks. It's more what the market now thinks of those companies are worth, given the, frankly, I believe, still imaginary impact of AI.

34:33Paul Maher:Hence the defensiveness, right?

34:35Jonathan Sim:It's interesting that our good friend Phil Robinson, founder of BoardWave and an ex-SaaS CEO, he has an interesting take on it. He wrote a recent post on LinkedIn. It's worth checking out, entitled Cloudburst, which we rather liked. And he said, until recently, there's been a significant speculation in why we have an AI bubble in terms of valuations that might burst at any moment. Well, we all know that may still be true. But over the last few weeks, as we're highlighting here, you've heard a lot about the, and this is my favorite, Sassica. So Phil's highlighting the sassica of public cloud software valuations um so you know why well investors are nervous clearly about headwinds generated by ai for traditional sass businesses as though they're somehow one day where sass is going to exist and the next day when it's not which is clearly nonsense there's a method to phil's madness here isn't there oh you feel it phil is nothing if not clever i think it comes down from i think studying computing originally at university um so phil um you know put his money where his mouth is, well, at least intellectually, and built two custom stock indices, a SAS 20 and an AI software 20.

35:55Jonathan Sim:And what he was trying to do is test the thesis that the market is not just readjusting, it's structurally repricing traditional subscription software. And it sort of came out as what you might think, but there's some details that are worth thinking about. So he's doing this at an early stage. It's very experimental. So his AI software 20 firms had to be the net beneficiaries of AI because so far there's very few public AI companies outside of the hyperscalers, whereas a much bigger basket of public SaaS companies are available. But that aside, the answer to Phil's structural repricing question over the last 12 months is sort of shocking, if not a bit brutal.

36:45Jonathan Sim:So if you look at his list, only two of the 20 SaaS stocks are in positive territory. The medium SaaS stock in Phil's model is down over 30%.

36:57Paul Maher:Well, let's just take that on board a second. The median, middle, average SaaS stock down a third.

37:04Jonathan Sim:So other people doing worse than that and some doing better, right? But the median down a third, that's significant. So it's significant because these are well-known names which take up a lot of the indexes. This is SAP, Salesforce, Adobe, ServiceNow, CrowdStrike. These other companies are the backbone of enterprise software, right? So meanwhile, Phil's AI index, and this may come as a surprise. Well, this bit shouldn't if you know anything about the industry, but the impact might. The AI index is currently being carried by three stocks, and that's Symbiotic, up about 125%. Alphabet, up 75%. Palantir, up nearly up a half.

37:44Jonathan Sim:It stripped those out, and this is the interesting thing, the medium AI stock is down 12%, right? Wow.

37:52Paul Maher:So the winners and losers are being picked, right?

37:54Jonathan Sim:The big question here is, is this a correction or a structural repricing? Whatever, this really isn't AI is winning, it's something else. Now, we think, could it be that the market is losing faith in per seat subscription economics? Because that has been the basis of this for a dog's age. And if AI can generate a marketing campaign, draft a contract or triage support ticket what's the moat for the sas tool that used to own that particular workflow i mean like phil i mean i i don't think this means sas is dead but i think the era um and i'm seeing this every day in mna the era of 15 to 20x revenues uh multiples revenue multiples for let's say 25 per annum growth in enterprise software is over and it's over forever yeah i i want to add to

38:49Paul Maher:that. The per seat pricing one is really interesting. A couple of quick anecdotes, if I may. One is the direct experience with Salesforce, actually, who we started this piece talking about, related to me by the chief operating officer of a very large firm in, let's just say, an area related to the hospitality sector that'll do it. Now, he tried to renegotiate with Salesforce for a temporary license suspension during COVID. And this is a time when he had to lay off over 40 % of his team, a lot of whom were personal friends. Guess what Salesforce said? We've got a contract and we're sticking to it.

39:26Jonathan Sim:Yes. We've got a contract. We've got shareholders. We need to keep our numbers up. They just point blank refused zero customer service.

39:33Paul Maher:So as a consequence, for the last couple of years, he's just blanked them, but he's never forgotten. And I know for a fact he's exploring options. If he finds one of those, Wobitai, you know, your pricing seat.

39:46Jonathan Sim:Do you think those agents we're talking about earlier would do that? Yeah. I'm a slighted agent.

39:54Paul Maher:I think they might be okay retiring for a couple of days as well, as opposed to just saying, give me the money. But anyway, enough of the iniquitous practices of certain software companies. I also had supper. Well, actually, a Soho Couser. I shouldn't dress that up too much. For people who are not from the North or indeed from the UK, a Couser is a curry. Spiced Indian-style repast, yes. And this is with the CFO of a 20-plus year British tech firm, valued north of 100 million and significant revenues too. He was talking about what he saw as the still-existent residual belly fat of many vendors and partners in the SaaS space.

40:37Paul Maher:And he was referring to maybe some of the companies we've talked to earlier about how quite clear it was that his path forward for his business to be successful was deeper and deeper customer engagement. We're not conceding on seats, not this is your price like at a lump it. His customers don't want to be on the bleeding edge of software. They just want software that works at a reasonable price and a low risk. And yes, that might not be the race evaluations of before, his company, which is PE backed, is certainly going nowhere. It's got a dominant, it leads the category. It has also decades of data, which any AI vendor would love to get their hands on, not for sale.

41:22Paul Maher:And the point is, as you said just now, there will be some unexpected winners among all of the AI doomsterism. Some of those SaaS companies, which we talked about at the top of this, who grow off the back of, let's give you the next version. You need to upgrade. Oh, you don't have the right package, let's take you to the next package. The massive, I'll do you a favor, the all-you-can-eat deals that just sticks you with shelfware that you end up paying for and don't really take control of. And the almost payola-like relationship that some of those SaaS companies have with, particularly with line of business buyers, who maybe are a bit more naive about what else is out there.

42:00Paul Maher:Those guys, SaaSpocalypse, Sassica, whatever you want to call it those guys are in trouble and some of us would say they should be yeah so this this might

42:10Jonathan Sim:teach the sass community form of a better word an overdue lesson um but i i would um i wouldn't bet that uh the generation of ai native companies are going to behave any better although they should

42:26Paul Maher:yeah so so i think the way forward here is if they can learn those lessons and and and maybe not be as transactional as the SaaS companies ended up. Yeah, it's not going to be about seats anymore, is it? Definitely not. It's about value. And that means really understanding, accepting, and embracing what it is that AI can bring, because that's going to be the new determinant of value.

42:53Jonathan Sim:Thank you for listening. If you want to learn more about category design, head to becategorical.com. If you need help designing and dominating your category, then get in touch. Contact details are in the show notes.