In short
Podcast Summary: The Information's TITV
Episode Title
OpenAI and Anthropic’s Tumultuous Week, the Global Memory Chip Crunch and 23andMe’s Non-Profit Plan
Episode Overview In this episode, Martin Peers and Laura Mandaro from The Information discuss significant recent developments in the tech industry including:
- Anthropic's legal challenges with the Department of Defense.
- OpenAI's strategic pivot away from shopping and advertising.
- A conversation with Robinhood CFO Shiv Verma about the launch of a new publicly traded venture fund.
- The ongoing global memory chip shortage and its impact on China's domestic suppliers.
- Anne Wojcicki's transformative plan for 23andMe as it transitions to a non-profit model.
Key Discussions
- Anthropic vs. the Department of Defense
- Background: Anthropic is embroiled in legal challenges following a statement made by the Department of Defense that initially threatened the company’s ability to collaborate with various firms.
- Insights:
- Martin Peers highlighted that the ramifications of the Defense's statement were initially perceived as severe but may not be as broad in impact.
- Laura Mandaro noted that this situation has injected a sense of urgency and intrigue into the competitive dynamics between Anthropic and OpenAI.
- Impact on IPO: The legal issues faced by Anthropic could deter investors ahead of any potential IPO.
- OpenAI's Strategic Reassessment
- Shift in Focus: OpenAI has decided to deprioritize its shopping and advertising strategies to concentrate on core competencies.
- Market Reaction: This decision raised questions about the company’s initial broad ambitions and the challenges of integrating shopping functionality into their existing platforms.
- Robinhood’s Publicly Traded Venture Fund
- Launch of New Fund: Robinhood is debuting a venture fund aimed at providing public investors access to private companies.
- CFO Insights: Shiv Verma explained that the fund includes eight tech companies, determined through a mix of customer interest and rigorous underwriting.
- Long-term Strategy: Verma emphasized the importance of going public, stating that public markets provide a larger capital pool and impose discipline on companies.
- The Global Memory Chip Shortage
- Domestic Sourcing: Chinese tech giants are increasingly turning to domestic suppliers like YMTC and CSMT for memory chips due to supply chain disruptions.
- Challenges: Despite improvements in chip manufacturing capabilities, restrictions from the US and allies on advanced semiconductor technologies pose significant challenges.
- 23andMe's Transition to Non-Profit
- Leadership Change: After acquiring the company back, Anne Wojcicki plans to operate 23andMe as a non-profit.
- Funding Strategy:
- Anne is launching a capital campaign and seeking philanthropic donations to ensure sustainability.
- The shift to a non-profit model raises questions about long-term funding and customer engagement.
- Market Dynamics: The transition could help the company leverage its vast DNA database in new ways but faces competition in a crowded market.
Important Articles Discussed
- [Quince Talks Double Valuation](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/quince-talks-double-valuation-10-billion)
- [NVIDIA Cloud Ally Together AI Talks Raise $7.5 Billion Valuation](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/nvidia-cloud-ally-together-ai-talks-raise-7-5-billion-valuation)
- [OpenAI’s Shopping Glitch](https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/the-briefing/openais-shopping-glitch)
- [Demand from Alibaba Giants Boosts China's Homegrown Memory Suppliers](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/demand-alibaba-giants-boosts-chinas-homegrown-memory-suppliers)
- [Anne Wojcicki's Plan to Revive 23andMe](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anne-wojcickis-plan-revive-23andme-rich-donors-improved-tests-maybe-maha)
Conclusion The episode provides a comprehensive look into the recent developments in significant tech companies, highlighting the intricacies of market dynamics, strategic shifts, and the ongoing challenges within the technology landscape. Tune in for further insights and updates on these evolving topics every weekday at 10 am PT / 1 pm ET.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VONews Highlights: Quince and Together AI
0:45 to 1:51
Discussion of recent scoops about Quince and Together AI's fundraising.
“That, too, would be double its last valuation.”
Upcoming Topics Overview
1:51 to 2:14
Overview of key topics including Anthropic's situation and Robinhood's CFO.
“It has been another busy week for the dynamics between Anthropic and OpenAI and the Department of Defense.”
Anthropic and OpenAI Dynamics
2:14 to 3:19
Exploring the tension between Anthropic, OpenAI, and the Department of Defense.
“What did you make of Dario's statement last night?”
Silicon Valley Reactions
3:19 to 4:32
Discussion on reactions within Silicon Valley regarding the competition and political landscape.
“But, you know, I think he looks smart, as I said.”
Financial Implications for AI Companies
4:32 to 5:29
Analyzing the financial implications of government contracts on AI companies.
“and people can be a lot more excited about a new product release or, you know, some CEO moving or top researcher even moving from company to company.”
Management Styles: Altman vs. Dario
5:29 to 7:06
Comparing management styles of Sam Altman and Dario from Anthropic.
“It's, you know, if they raise this entire$110 billion that they're in the middle of raising, we'll have raised far more money.”
Culture and Stability in Companies
7:06 to 7:59
Discussion on company culture and how it affects company stability and news leaks.
“I mean, they're sort of two different playbooks.”
Impact of Government Contracts
7:59 to 9:46
Analyzing the impact of potential government contract losses on Anthropic.
“So I think that somewhat speaks to the culture, you know, that it's very tight.”
OpenAI's Changing Ambitions
9:46 to 11:04
Discussion on OpenAI's revised ambitions and challenges in shopping and ad tech.
“And, you know, I think there are other vulnerabilities to that.”
Debrief on OpenAI's Strategic Shift
11:04 to 13:20
Analyzing OpenAI's recent strategic shifts and challenges in their projects.
“This will sort of just get stuck in some sort of long court battle.”
Show all 21 chapters
Investment Strategies of Robinhood's CFO
14:03 to 16:53
Learn about the strategic decision-making behind Robinhood's investment fund and portfolio management.
“to talk more about what the company is hoping to achieve strategically with this fund.”
Public vs. Private Markets: Insights from Robinhood
16:53 to 19:48
Explore the advantages of going public for companies, especially regarding capital access and discipline.
“You have to be a best in class company to do that if you need to get the capital that you can get.”
The Rise of Prediction Markets at Robinhood
19:48 to 22:39
Discover how Robinhood is leveraging prediction markets and its performance in the emerging asset class.
“There's always someone who wants to buy and always someone who wants to sell.”
Compliance and Monitoring in Emerging Markets
22:39 to 24:45
Understand Robinhood's approach to compliance and monitoring, particularly in prediction markets.
“With prediction markets, have you guys caught anyone insider trading?”
AI Integration and Cost Management at Robinhood
24:45 to 27:46
Learn how Robinhood is implementing AI to streamline operations and manage costs effectively.
“The savings has been over nine figures in terms of what we're seeing from some of the AI adoption tools we use.”
Closing Remarks with Shiv Varma
27:46 to 28:00
Hear the final thoughts from Shiv Varma on Robinhood's future and operations.
“But I'd rather take those cost savings and reinvest in the business and just run an overall lean business to begin with.”
China's Tech Giants Adapt to Memory Chip Shortage
28:00 to 36:40
Explore how Chinese tech companies are sourcing memory chips amidst a global shortage.
“A global memory chip shortage is pushing China's biggest tech firms to source more from domestic suppliers.”
The Evolution and Future of 23andMe
36:40 to 42:00
Understand the challenges and new directions for 23andMe under Anne Wojcicki's leadership.
“That was Jing Yang and Chenner Liu from our Asia Bureau here on TIT.”
Exploring 23andMe's Nonprofit Transition
42:00 to 43:39
Learn about Ann Wojcicki's shift of 23andMe to a nonprofit model and its implications.
“Well, the entire bid that she eventually won,$305 million bid plus$85 million to cover operating expenses, that was her own personal money.”
Challenges and Opportunities in DNA Testing
43:40 to 46:29
Discuss the balancing act of attracting philanthropy while maintaining consumer sales.
“He heard that she was turning into a nonprofit.”
The Future of 23andMe in a Crowded Market
46:30 to 47:29
Examine the potential for 23andMe to thrive without shareholders and attract new users.
“I mean, when you walked away from this conversation, you've been covering the space for so long.”
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:13Laura Mandaro:Welcome, everyone, to The Information's TI TV. My name is Akash Masritcha. It is Friday, March 6th. We have got a busy show lined up for you today. Before we get there, I want to flag two big scoops our newsroom published last night. Quince, the online retail company, is talking to investors about raising money at a$10 billion valuation. That would be double its last valuation. And separately, Together AI, a fast-growing company in the NeoClouds category, is in talks to raise funding at a$7.5 billion valuation. That, too, would be double its last valuation. Both of those stories are on our website.
0:52Laura Mandaro:I encourage you to check them out. Today on the show, we are unpacking the latest in Anthropics saga with the Department of Defense. We'll bring on two of our top editors for their analysis and also talk about what the talk of the town was at this week's big Morgan Stanley Tech Conference. We're then bringing on Robin Hood's CFO for a conversation about their new publicly traded venture fund that is listing today. It is all part of their hope to give public investors access to private companies. We also have another dispatch from our Asia Bureau on how the memory chip crunch is boosting local China chip makers.
1:26Laura Mandaro:And finally, our weekend big read this week is about 23andMe. Our health and science reporter, Amy Doxler-Marcus, sat down with founder and CEO Anne Wojcicki for her first extended conversation since she bought back the company and turned it into a nonprofit. I'm going to unpack all of that with Amy and talk about what Wojcicki told her. It's going to be a fun show, so let's get right on into it. It has been another busy week for the dynamics between Anthropic and OpenAI and the Department of Defense. And on a different note, we have also published a lot of new reporting this week about OpenAI's shopping and advertising ambitions.
2:04Laura Mandaro:To unpack it all on this week's edition of The Editor's Cut, I want to bring on our co-executive editor, Martin Pierce, and our managing editor, Laura Mandaro. Martin and Laura, welcome to you both. It's great to have you here. Hey, Conn. Okay. Exciting. Friday. Let's do it. Martin, I want to start with you. What did you make of Dario's statement last night?
2:26Shiv Verma:I thought it was a very even keeled statement. He, I mean, I would like to say it was predictable that he would apologize because I had predicted it. And he did apologize for the tone of his memo, which we had scooped, where he called, I think he made some comment about having to make dictator-style praise to Trump. So I thought it was a good statement. He comes across as he really takes apart the issue and he really comes across as smart and getting into the details. Unfortunately, Certainly, he's dealing with an administration which tends to sort of yell about things. And I don't think they're really operating on the same wavelength.
3:19Shiv Verma:But, you know, I think he looks smart, as I said.
3:23Laura Mandaro:And so he got a little bit into sort of the details of what it means to be a supply chain risk, what the definition is, what it sort of limits to. But, I mean, as far as we understand, Martin, I mean, just help us understand how existential a risk this designation could be for the companies that Anthropix worked with. I mean, how broad could this be?
3:46Shiv Verma:Well, it could have been very broad because the original statement that the government had made indicated that Anthropix wouldn't be able to work with anybody. And it almost made it seem like they might go out of business. But Microsoft said last night that they had looked at the statement the government has actually issued. And it's not as broad. And it really only affects Anthropics' ability to work with companies as it regards the Defense Department. So it probably won't be such a big deal.
4:26Laura Mandaro:Laura, what's the reaction being across Silicon Valley from your end?
4:31Anne Wojcicki:Well, you know, this has been sort of a riveting series of events and in a way that I don't think, you know, politics sort of tends to national politics or geopolitics tends to rise up and fade as a cause of concern. and people can be a lot more excited about a new product release or, you know, some CEO moving or top researcher even moving from company to company. And this is one of the times when national politics has really punctured that flow of news. I mean, I think that, you know, we had a very nice dealmaker call from Valida, our investment banking reporter, last night. I think this is all happening against the context of a very fierce battle between these two companies for sort of business supremacy, for lack of a better word.
5:28Anne Wojcicki:OpenAI is older, of course. It's far bigger. It's, you know, if they raise this entire$110 billion that they're in the middle of raising, we'll have raised far more money. But Anthropic, as our reporter Sri reported this week and others have reported, is really catching up very quickly in terms of revenue. And that's in part because their Cloud Code agent has been very, very successful. They just released it last year. And even before that, the underlying models, the API that was helping other coding agents grow was sort of off the charts and the most popular. So I think that, you know, while people have sort of philosophical views about how these companies are dealing with the Pentagon, there's also and very much so, of course, from the investors, this conversation about, OK, who's going to be the sort of stronger financial company and, you know, who goes public first?
6:35Anne Wojcicki:Right.
6:35Shiv Verma:And can I just jump in there on that point? That's a very important point, which is if you're looking at the IPOs of these companies, this issue that Anthropic faces is not going to help them if they're trying to go public. No one wants to invest in a company which is being attacked by the government. So Anthropic probably wants to get this result before they go public.
7:05Laura Mandaro:Laura, one of the things that struck me from the column last night that Valida wrote was at the Morgan Stanley Tech Conference, there seemed to be sort of a differing perspectives around just the way that Sam Altman is managing his company and the way that Dario has managed his company. I mean, they're sort of two different playbooks.
7:23Anne Wojcicki:I mean, they would also like you to think that very much, right? I mean, Dario talks a lot, a lot, a lot about culture and the mission, and that's the whole, you know, premise of Anthropic. I mean, he left OpenAI and his sister and some others over apparent disagreements about OpenAI's direction. And, you know, notably, we have not been able to break much from inside the company in terms of, you know, how the company talks to its employees.
7:56Shiv Verma:Except for the other night.
8:25Anne Wojcicki:Meta, for instance, and OpenAI. You know, OpenAI declares a code red. We have broken that news. So I think that somewhat speaks to the culture, you know, that it's very tight. People are kind of aligned, you know, in terms of what they're doing with Anthropic. It's very hard for companies to sustain that, I would say. And it's only, what, a five-year-old company. But so far, it's, you know, they seem to be kind of one tribe of like-minded research.
8:57Shiv Verma:Laura is revealing the secret of journalism. We thrive on companies where there's a lot of dissension and unhappiness and people willing to sort of leak stuff. And we really do not like it when companies are all happy, happy families. That doesn't really work for us.
9:15Anne Wojcicki:Well, yeah, I mean, I think that this is kind of speaks to what's at stake here for Anthropic. I think, you know, what Martin is getting to in terms of the contract may not be that big, right? I mean, even the entire Pentagon contract of$200 million is just not that big, you know, for a company that's, you know, on track.
9:38Laura Mandaro:$19 billion. Yeah, exactly.
9:41Anne Wojcicki:So could they lose the Pentagon contract without making a big dent? Yes. And, you know, I think there are other vulnerabilities to that. I mean, you know, maybe this work with the government opens the door to other big corporate customers because it gives a sense of, you know, significance. It's sort of a halo effect. you are an established corporate IT vendor if you have this. I'm curious about that more than anything. But on the other hand, if Dario does something that seems to be very hypocritical in terms of this mission, that he's been able to attract so many top-notch researchers to, does he lose that?
10:28Anne Wojcicki:And as we as others have reported, it's really a war for talent still with these AI companies.
10:34Laura Mandaro:Martin, okay, so very quickly, I mean, Dario said in a statement, he said, we really have no choice but to challenge this in court. So how do you think this ultimately plays out over the next couple of months?
10:45Shiv Verma:Well, I have seen commentary from people who understand the laws suggesting that the government does not have a very strong case. So I think this will be like many of the things that Trump has done where the courts will block him. So that's my expectation. This will sort of just get stuck in some sort of long court battle.
11:08Laura Mandaro:Okay. And very quickly, Martin, we had this string of stories this week on OpenAI's revised ambitions now in shopping and in ad tech. to shopping was really the thing that i think took me by surprise i think because they'd really painted this very broad vision of everything that will happen inside the platform and now they're saying uh maybe not so like what does it make you wonder why did they not figure this out before they announced it and that's is because they were busy doing coding and github and social media
11:43Shiv Verma:I mean, it takes, how long would it have taken to make a couple of phone calls and say, hey, dude, how hard is it to do this thing in the chat? What? It's hard? Oh, let's figure. Pretty hard. Pretty hard, actually.
11:55Anne Wojcicki:Well, well, I mean.
11:59Laura Mandaro:Laura's going to defend some. Okay, okay. Let's see. Oh, no, it's okay. It's a good story. No, no, no. I want to hear it. I want to hear it. I want to hear it.
12:05Anne Wojcicki:Well, I mean, this actually may support your case, but it's been very hard to do social media shopping. As, you know, I think there was some meme about what's - As we've written. All they had to do is read all our stories.
12:21Shiv Verma:All they had to do, and we should explain to the OpenAI people, get a subscription to the information and read the background. Then they won't announce things that don't work.
12:34Anne Wojcicki:I think we need more reporting to know why this. And I do think maybe it is unusual to pull the plug on something so soon. But, you know, we reported back last fall that after Gemini's latest release was so fantastic, OpenAI said, okay, we got to like narrow our scope and we're going to trim some of the side projects. It's a code red. We're going to really focus on the model. I, you know, I suspect this is a casualty. So maybe this is all about that.
13:05Shiv Verma:This is a code red. They have pulled back. Yeah.
13:08Laura Mandaro:But they can't call it a code red anymore because then...
13:13Anne Wojcicki:Well, the code red makes you not do everything, right? They were doing everything. They somewhat narrowed, perhaps. I don't know if we totally know that they're linked, but it would be logical.
13:27Laura Mandaro:Yeah. Although, as we know from Pinterest, I mean, you can call multiple code reds, and you can call code reds in many different departments. Okay. Well, look, I want to thank you both for coming on. It was a busy week, and I anticipate next week will be even busier. That is Martin Pierce, our co-executive editor, and Laura Mandara, our managing editor, here at The Information. Robinhood is debuting their new publicly tradable fund that will track the performance of private companies. The new fund is meant to give public investors exposure to some of the world's biggest private companies, including Ramp, Revolut, Aura, Databricks, and more.
14:03Laura Mandaro:to talk more about what the company is hoping to achieve strategically with this fund. I want to bring on Robinhood CFO Shiv Verma. Shiv, welcome to the show. It's great to have you here.
14:13Martin Peers:No, thank you. Excited to chat with you.
14:15Laura Mandaro:So how did you guys decide on what is in this fund?
14:19Martin Peers:Yeah, great questions. We always start with the customer. So we talked to our customer and we said, what do you want? And for them, they felt that they were being left out of some of these best-in-class frontier technology names of late-stage growth. So we set about for our first fund to try to get access to some of these names. And we're super excited that for the first portfolio, we already contributed eight fantastic names, some of which you mentioned, and now we've raised more capital to continue to invest.
14:42Laura Mandaro:Okay. And I am curious about the eight names. I mean, so look, I mean, you have Aura in there, maybe you could have gone with a company like Whoop, you know, I'm thinking about the wearables space, you have Databricks, you know, maybe there's another company. How did you decide on the eight?
Read the full transcript
14:57Martin Peers:Yeah, great question. So we underwrite each investment and we look for a couple things. Do we believe this is a technology leader in their space? We want to be in the winners over the long term. Second, we look at the long term IRRs, what do we believe they can do over multiple years? And then we also listen to our customers. We understand what kind of names they're interested in. And when we talk to them, they look at AI names, names that are consumer branded, names that they think are leaders in the category. So it's a little bit of tops down. What are we hearing from customers? What do we think is interesting?
15:25Martin Peers:Then we bottoms up, underwrite each name.
15:27Laura Mandaro:Okay. So in other words, it's actually been managed like a venture fund in terms of you have investors that are choosing one company over the other strategically.
15:36Martin Peers:Oh, 100%. Yeah. So we brought in-house a seasoned portfolio manager. Her name is Sarah Pinto. She was previously a growth investor in Silicon Valley and had invested in many of these great names. And so she's built out an investment team and we are actively going out and sourcing and talking to companies and underwriting them and then choosing which names we think are the best fit for the customer and in the portfolio.
15:54Laura Mandaro:Okay, and then so mechanically then when these companies do go public, if they do go public, then what happens to the weightings of the fund and how do those returns come back to the investors then?
16:06Martin Peers:Yeah, great question. So the beauty of a closed-end fund is you can buy them when they're private, you can buy the IPO, and you can actually hold or buy more of them when they're public. So even when they go public, we'll continue to underwrite them. If we choose to sell the investment, we then take the realized gains and 90 % of it gets distributed to the shareholders and back to customers. And so the beauty of the fund is also they get great tax advantage. And so the fund itself doesn't get taxed and the customer doesn't pay the double taxation. So big picture, if a company goes public and we choose to sell, we distribute most of the gains out to customers and then they can choose to do what they would like with it.
16:40Laura Mandaro:Now, I'm curious about your perspective as a CFO on this issue of when to go public, if to go public. I mean, you have companies in this portfolio that can raise money and have shown they can raise money in the private markets and satisfy their capital requirements there. And, you know, look, it depends. You have to be a best in class company to do that if you need to get the capital that you can get. But is there still value in going public today? Do you think I'm asking you as a CFO, if you could just get the money in the private markets for some of these top names?
17:16Martin Peers:Great question. We believe that every company, in particular, the best in class companies should be public for a few reasons. One, the U.S. public equities market is the deepest pool and deepest pool of capital in the world. So while, yes, many of these companies can raise private capital that only goes so far, the public markets is 10 to 100 times and larger. And on top of that, for the category of companies that are even one tier below, they might not have access to these same pools of capital. So we think everybody should be public. I also think that it brings discipline. You asked me what I believe is my CFO hat.
17:48Martin Peers:We build for the long term. We said we don't make decisions on a quarterly basis, but being in the public eye, it forces you to prioritize, it forces you to be disciplined, and it brings you to be more mature. And so in order to access bigger pools of capital and understand what it means to be public and the discipline it brings, I actually think it's a great thing for many of these companies to go public. And then lastly, I'll add, it does bring a new base. So retail is 25 % of the U.S. equities public markets today. And so going public also allows some of these best-in-class companies to share the gains with their underlying retail consumer as well.
18:18Laura Mandaro:Now, how do you square that then with the way that IPOs as of late have fared? I mean, you look at some of the new issues and says not every tech company has done as well as they would have hoped, I think, out of the gate. And, you know, we've got this market volatility. I mean, how do you then square that with, I don't even want to deal with the volatility. Maybe it's better just to be private.
18:42Martin Peers:Yeah, it's a great question. In the short term, you do have to deal with the volatility. And we're 100 % acknowledge that. I think over the longer term, if you are public, though, you will see the gains come back and continue to confine. And so, while it might be nice to hide in the private markets and not have to deal with the public markets coming in actually brings, like I mentioned, the discipline before. So if you look at Robinhood's own history, we went public and similar to many others, when markets were volatile, we went down. And today we're now a$70 billion S &P 500 public company. And it's because we went through the journey, we've been through the ups and downs.
19:15Martin Peers:And so, yeah, it's different, but I do think it's actually better for the company to see what they're worth in the light of day.
19:20Laura Mandaro:So when you look at the stock prices then of companies that have gone public, tech companies in the last six months and you look at the way those have fared, that doesn't concern you then because that was basically the path that you're saying Robin had.
19:32Martin Peers:Yeah, it's in the short term. So you may have some short term volatility. I don't think you should judge any IPO until it's been three, five, even 10 years. And so for many of these companies, they're focused on their customers. They're continuing to build. And if they do well, they will eventually be valued appropriately. If there's volatility in the short term, that's the nature of public markets. There's always someone who wants to buy and always someone who wants to sell. But if I were them, the same thing that happened to Robinhood, I would focus on the customer. I'd focus on the long-term and then I'd look out three, five years and then see how they did.
20:01Right.
20:02Laura Mandaro:I want to ask you about prediction markets, which is another exciting area that Robinhood is wading deeper into. On the business side of things, I mean, you guys have said that you did$300 million in annualized revenue in your first year for prediction markets. How much are you projecting it's going to be this year?
20:21Martin Peers:Yeah, so we haven't given a forecast for the actual production. We said we ended last year about 300 million. It's a great business. It's great for customers. It brings access. If you look at our most recent quarter, we did over 1.3 billion of revenue. So annualized about 5 billion. So while it's, you know, 300 million substantial, it's still a relatively smaller portion of our overall business. But for us, the reason we like it is, it is a new asset class. We believe we're at the super cycle of prediction markets. We're just getting started. And most importantly, we're giving customers what they want.
20:51Martin Peers:want and access to this brand new emerging asset class.
20:53Laura Mandaro:What percent of your overall revenue do you think prediction markets could be?
20:59Martin Peers:You know, we usually don't forecast that out. Again, like what I said, it's a relatively small portion of today. I don't mind if a larger portion is equities trading or options trading or from net interest revenue. For us, and again, it sounds like a brokered record, if you really focus on the customer, if you focus on the inputs and build great products, then the outputs of revenue will take care of themselves. And so prediction markets is great. And if it chooses to be a larger portion over time, fantastic. With crypto right now, you know, there's a lot of volatility in the market. We still are building.
21:28Martin Peers:We think it's great. It's about 18 % of our revenue. So relatively small in the overall portion. But big picture things will cycle over time. Sometimes it'll be brokerage. Sometimes it'll be crypto. Sometimes it'll be prediction markets. We've also said we've been diversifying. So we have 11 business lines that do over 100 million of ARR today. And so as you keep building more and more of these products, again, you take care of the customers, and then you'll see it in the outputs of revenue.
21:51Laura Mandaro:You have 11 businesses doing 100 million.
21:53Martin Peers:What's going to be the 12th? So we said on our last earnings call, there's two that are getting really close. Robinhood Legend, which is our web product, and the Robinhood Gold Card, the first credit card we launched. We actually just announced a Platinum Card a few days ago to our new two events. So between the GMs internally, we have some competition to who's going to get there first. But I think Robinhood Legend and the Robinhood Gold Card are the next up in line.
22:14Laura Mandaro:Now, we had Steve Quirk, your chief brokerage officer, on the show a couple months ago, and we were talking about prediction markets. And I asked him about insider trading and some of the concerns that were coming to light in the industry. And the point that he made is that, look, we've been monitoring stuff like this in stock trading and crypto trading, etc. We've been doing this for a long time. And so that's sort of what sets Robinhood up for success. With prediction markets, have you guys caught anyone insider trading? Have you flagged anything?
22:45Martin Peers:You know, our teams are always monitoring everything. I think the main thing that Steve Quirk said, which is right, we take legal and compliance incredibly seriously. We know how to be regulated. We believe it's a moat. And so I love the asset class in the industry. And I think the best thing to help it grow is to do things the right way, to do it with integrity, whether it's what you list or monitoring insider trading. And so while the asset class is emerging, we do think that structure is important. So 100 % agree. And that's how we build all of our products.
23:13Laura Mandaro:But have you caught anyone?
23:16Martin Peers:I don't know if we've shared anything publicly, but just in general, the way we do it is we monitor it. We KYC. We have AML on these folks. We have listing committees looking at the types of contracts. And so the same way we would do any other product, we use our technology plus our in-house team to make sure we're monitoring it. And if we do flag anything, we'll always make sure to do it appropriately. But for us, we think it is important for the industry to be regulated. and we believe that's actually one of our strains.
23:41Laura Mandaro:Now, coming back to your CFO role, how fast is the company planning to grow headcount this year in 2026?
23:49Martin Peers:Yeah, so I said on our most recent earnings call that we expect to go overall expenses by about 18%, and we expect to be profitable growth, meaning growing revenue faster than expenses. On headcount, we usually say we grow in kind of the mid-single digits, kind of in that area. And so the beauty of being a technology company is you don't need to add a lot of headcount. You can continue to build with software developers, you continue to use AI and automation, and you can take those cost savings and pass them on to the customers in terms of great value.
24:18Laura Mandaro:And on the AI piece, are you stripping out any of that enterprise software that people are saying you can do if you're using AI?
24:27Martin Peers:So we are using AI 100%. We've actually been one of the early adopters in this. When Enterprise Chat GPT came out in early 22, Sam was on the phone with Vlad very, very early on, and we wanted to be a customer. And so we give our developers access to all the best in class tools. And we've shared a few things with us. So we sent our last earnings call. The savings has been over nine figures in terms of what we're seeing from some of the AI adoption tools we use. We put into three big buckets. The first is development. So all of our software developers have great access to tools. All of our non-software developers were really making a push in-house to give our employees tools and education.
25:02Martin Peers:The second is operational. And so customer service, we were early to automate this. We've said publicly 75 % of our customer service tickets are now answered by AI, and that continues to get better and better. So that's a big area we're investing in. And the last is for customers. So we have our product called Cortex, which is our AI assistant. The first thing we have is you can go into any stock and AI will summarize why it's moving. We then built, you can go into your portfolio and it'll give you a summary of your overall portfolio. And then we announced most recently in December an AI assistant.
25:30Martin Peers:You can go into the app and actually talk to it and help you do it. So we're using AI across all three of those vectors.
25:34Laura Mandaro:But maybe this is a good place to leave this. You know, I do want to get your view on the AI eating SaaS, killing SaaS, replacing SaaS. I mean, you are in charge of signing off on these contracts at the end of the day. Do you think it, I mean, you can't really just take out an entire Salesforce function, can you? You know, what's your view on it?
25:59Martin Peers:I think it's a little bit overblown, to be honest. I think there are tools that are still very valuable. Tools of record, as you mentioned, whether it's something like Workday or something internally that tracks things, there's always a matter of prioritization. So when we look at our engineers, I'd rather have them focus on customer-facing products rather than trying to rebuild other enterprise SaaS companies that we use. It doesn't mean that it won't be that way forever. We're always talking to new companies. We're looking what's out there. But I think a lot of the companies that have built these great products and moats, we're going to continue to use them.
26:30Martin Peers:and then we're going to focus our developers using AI tools to build even more and more for customers. And so that's what we're seeing thus far.
26:36Laura Mandaro:And so the nine figures in cost savings, that comes from not having to hire as many people?
26:41Martin Peers:Yes, that's the main thing. And so if you look at our volumes from last year, volumes grew 40 to 50%, but headcount, as I mentioned, grew in the mid-single digits. And so the counterfactual is you would have had to hire a lot more people to build it. We're actually just taking those savings and reinvesting the business. So people ask, hey, how does Robinhood ship so fast? Well, we have great GMs who are always focused on it. We have great productivity tools, and then we take those investments and we keep investing in new products. So instead of just passing it on as additional cost savings, we're using it to reinvest in the business.
27:10Laura Mandaro:And what about layoffs? I mean, are you concerned at the narrative here that we could see layoffs? And how are you thinking about managing your own headcount?
27:18Martin Peers:Yeah, it's always something we're watching. In 2022, Robinhood went through its own restructuring, but we are very lean today. I think the best thing you can do is just run a lean and discipline cost structure, which is one of our values. And then you don't have to worry about this. For us, I feel really great. There are a couple of companies in the markets that we've seen. I think some of them are using AI as a headline to kind of say, hey, this is why we're doing it. And they may have been a little bit overstaffed to begin with. But for us, we run lean and discipline. We're always looking at ways to grow.
27:46Martin Peers:But I'd rather take those cost savings and reinvest in the business and just run an overall lean business to begin with.
27:51Laura Mandaro:Great. Well, Shiv, I want to thank you for coming on. It's an exciting day. I'll let you get back to the action at NYSEE. That is Shiv Varma, the CFO of Robinhood, here on TIT. A global memory chip shortage is pushing China's biggest tech firms to source more from domestic suppliers. That is according to a new exclusive story out of the Information's Asia Bureau. I want to play for you a conversation that Jing Yang, our Asia Bureau chief, had with Chen Er Liu, our reporter who wrote that story. Here is that conversation.
28:23Qianer Liu:Hi, Chenna. As we know, the global memory chip shortage has been affecting tech companies almost everywhere. How have Chinese tech giants from Alibaba to Biden to Tencent been reacting to this shortage based on new reporting? We published an exclusive story this week right at this front. we are seeing a very interesting shift right now. For example, Alibaba, Biden's, and Tencent, all three of China's biggest tech powerhouses are actively turning to Chinese memory chip makers to looking for memory chips to power their data sensors. So here's some context. So as AI models get bigger and more complicated and more people use them, the membership demand is exploding.
29:15Qianer Liu:So every single chatbot prompts, every AI query requires membership. And China, with over a billion internet users, it's feeling the pressure faster than almost anywhere else in the world. So what these Chinese big tech companies have done is to reach initial agreement on pricing, on volume, and on quality with China's two biggest memory chip makers, which is Yangtze Memory Technologies, known as YMTC, and Changxin Memory Technology, or CSMT. Central to these deals are a commitment on future purchase orders, giving the Chinese chip makers some certainty that they need to expand their factories.
30:05Qianer Liu:Right, so let me just make sure I get acronyms correct. YMTC and CXMT are the two leading memory chip suppliers in China. I have a feeling we might start hearing these two acronyms more frequently. But let's start from the basics. Why haven't Chinese tech companies previously been procuring more from YMTC and CXMT? That's a good question. Historically, Chinese memory chip industry was seen as an underdog or also run, well behind Samsung and SK Hynix of South Korea and Americans' Micron. So Chinese tech firms simply prefer sourcing from the global tech leader, global memory leader for reliability and production scale.
30:57Qianer Liu:But that play ball has broken down on two fronts. First, American Micron has effectively been shut down of China since 2023 because of the escalating US and China tension. So that's one global supplier gone. Secondly, Samsung and SK Hynix are still operating in China, but they are turning down requests for more supply to Chinese companies. because all three tech memory makers, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, they are now shifting the bulk of their production to something called as High Bandwidth Memory or HBM, which is the premium stack chips that power cutting edge AI processors such as those from NVIDIA, like NVIDIA's Blackwell or Rubin GPU.
31:55Qianer Liu:So this kind of production strategy is squeezing the availability of standard memory chips. So Chinese tech companies aren't turning to local supplier out of nationalism. So they are doing it because they have been effectively left without better options. So I noticed you said standard memory chips. What are those standard memory chips? And can those two Chinese manufacturers make them? Are they good enough? That's where it gets nuanced. I would say, honestly, that's the most important question for the long term. YMTC mainly means NAMM, M-A-M-D. Those are the chips that can store data for long term.
32:46Qianer Liu:And CSMT means DRAMM, D-R-A-M. They are the chips that can like temporary store chips for active use usage. So the good news for Chinese chip makers is that they have been making process in their memory chip making technology and they are closing the gap. That means that and also the products, their products follow industry wise specification. That means a chip from Chinese maker could be swapped in for one from other companies such as Samsung and Micron of the same generation. But there's also a challenge. So both YMTC and CSNT are state-owned and have received billions in government funding.
33:36Qianer Liu:And they are the core part of Beijing's push for semiconductor cell sufficiency. But they are operating under a huge handicap because US, Japan and Netherlands have all restricted export of the most advanced chip making tools to China. So that limits how fast and how far YMTC and CSMT can scale up and improve their chip making technologies. So I would say the honest answer is the capacity is growing and these new purchase commitments from Alibaba, Biden and Tencent will help support all these two chip makers expansion. But stepping back to the restrictions you mentioned from US, Japan, and Netherlands on chip making tools, this is a part of US-led export control or semiconductor technology embargo against China.
34:38Qianer Liu:Right. So then I guess then a bigger question is, can the two Chinese memory makers actually have enough capacity in the foreseeable future to supply this sudden rising demand from Chinese companies? I would say, like I mentioned before, obviously the capacity is growing due to all these fundings and support from Chinese government. But these US-led export controls are setting the real ceiling of how quickly these two domestic memory chip makers can ramp up, given the technology restrictions they are working around. I see. I see. But why can't the Chinese company just go to the 2 ,000 current companies, Samsung and SK Hynnings, asking for them to supply more of those standard memory chips?
35:38Qianer Liu:I know you mentioned that they are prioritizing HBM. Is that the only reason? Because that would affect the supply that they can have to, say, American tech companies too. This is definitely not the only reason. In fact, Balibaba, Bydance and Tencent had repeatedly went to Samsung and SK Hynix in the recent months and trying to ask for more supply. But these two South Korean companies have been prioritizing the order from U.S. companies such as Microsoft, Meta, and Google, which are also hungers for all these memory chips. I see. I see. Well, thank you very much, Cher. It's definitely a fascinating and developing story.
36:31Qianer Liu:And I'm sure that you will continue to report on this. Thank you. Thank you for having me.
36:40Laura Mandaro:That was Jing Yang and Chenner Liu from our Asia Bureau here on TIT. 23andMe is a Silicon Valley name many of us might recognize. For the longest time, it has been the convenient DNA testing service that can tell you not just where your ancestors have come from, but also what kind of medical issues you might be predisposed to. That company has been through a bit of a rocky history. Last year, it filed for bankruptcy, but Anne Wojcicki, the company's founder, has since bought it back and has a revised plan for a new iteration of the company's strategy. That is the subject of this weekend's big read.
37:17Laura Mandaro:Amy Doxler-Marcus, our health and science reporter, actually had a chance to sit down with Wojcicki to discuss her new vision for the first time since she took back over the reins. I want to bring on Amy to tell us more about what she found. Amy, welcome back to the show. It's so great to have you here.
37:31Jing Yang:Yeah, it's nice to be here.
37:34Laura Mandaro:I have to tell you, I was so excited that this was our big read this weekend because 23andMe is a company that has fascinated me for so long. And I have to tell you, I actually have never done it. Did you ever get the service done?
37:48Jing Yang:I have not taken a consumer DNA test, which you might find interesting given that I've been covering this area for a very long time. Okay, well, why not?
38:01Laura Mandaro:I mean, just sort of thinking about long, what's the rationale?
38:06Jing Yang:You know, I think these DNA tests are great and they can offer a lot of really interesting and important information for people. I hesitated, I think, because there are genetic privacy issues involved. I don't know if you know this, but like if you have kids, you share 50 % of DNA with them. Siblings, you share around 50 % of DNA with them. So when you take a test and you put it in a database, you're essentially not just making a decision about your own genetic privacy, but also people who are really close to you. And I kind of hesitated about doing that, making decisions for my entire family by just taking my own test.
38:48Laura Mandaro:Fair enough. Okay. Well, that's a lot more thought than I put into it. I think I just never got around to it, honestly. But anyway, okay, I want to talk about the story that you wrote because you sat down with Ann Wojcicki, and I want to get to that conversation. But before we get there, I mean, just walk us through the history of 23andMe because it's been such a fascinating story to watch.
39:10Jing Yang:It really has. I mean, the company was founded nearly 20 years ago, and I think people have forgotten that when it was founded, the entire medical establishment really was against the idea that you should have access to, you know, doing a DNA test, spitting in a tube, sending your saliva, you know, from home and getting your own information without a doctor being involved. Like, this is a profound social and cultural revolution that happened. And then over the years, 23andMe, I mean, I think what they found is it became challenging to find a profitable model. They tried all different kinds of ways.
39:45Jing Yang:And in 2021, they went public. And that was even more difficult because, you know, answering to investors is always challenging. And the stock price went down and they ended up in bankruptcy.
39:59Laura Mandaro:And when you talk about the business model being so tough, what was it that was so tough? Is it very expensive to get these tests processed in the back end? Was it sort of a plateauing of customer interest? What was the fundamental reason there?
40:14Jing Yang:Yeah, I think it's a combination of things. But, you know, yes, when they were first introduced, they were pretty expensive. But the price, you know, went down to around$99. And there were always sales around Christmas when it was even cheaper. So people started to be able to afford the tests. And I mean, they were ubiquitous. I mean, their databases got like 13 million people in it, which is just, you know, huge and really impressive. but there were some privacy issues. Sales started to sort of stall a little bit. You know, I think that there's a lot of people who are interested, but I think a lot of them did it kind of as entertainment.
40:54Jing Yang:It's a really difficult model to try to persuade people that they should pay for health stuff. I think a lot of people expect insurers to reimburse them when it's health related. So it's been tough to try to find the right model.
41:06Laura Mandaro:Okay. So the company files for bankruptcy and and uh she is she's out of the picture at this point i mean she's not with
41:14Jing Yang:the company uh when well no i mean she was this she was the ceo and when the board said that it wanted to sell the company she made some offers she she a couple times she made offers even more and the very you know the board various boards um there was a whole story there um turned her down and eventually the board decided that they were going to sell the company, but through a bankruptcy process, Anne wanted to be an independent bidder. So she stepped down to CEO and said, I'm going to try to buy the company myself.
41:47Laura Mandaro:Okay. And so she gets it. I mean, she pours a lot of her own fortune into buying the company back. And I think in your reporting, you said, we don't know the exact figure, but we know at least it was quite a bit of her own money that she put into it.
42:02Jing Yang:Well, the entire bid that she eventually won,$305 million bid plus$85 million to cover operating expenses, that was her own personal money. I mean, we don't know how much of that represents her total fortune, but I mean, that's a sizable amount of money for someone to say, you know, I'm going to buy it.
42:25Laura Mandaro:And so what now? I mean, what questions were you – when you get an interview with Ann Wojcicki, I mean, this is a person that hasn't read it. really spoken a lot now about the next iteration of the company. I'm curious what the questions that you went into that conversation were and how you were thinking about that.
42:41Jing Yang:Well, for one thing, I think what's most interesting and people are curious about is when she bought it back, she decided it's not going to be a company anymore. It's going to be a nonprofit. And that's just a whole other model. Because on the one hand, you don't have to answer to investors, which is great, but to be sustaining, you know, and she doesn't, I think she hasn't decided yet, she said, but like, you know, she doesn't know how much more of her own money she's going to put into this, but like to be self-sustaining, she's going to have to attract a lot of philanthropy. And also she wants to get more customers to keep buying tests because that's another sustaining revenue model.
43:19Jing Yang:So we spent a lot of time thinking about like, what's the new, you know, talking about what she was thinking about for the nonprofit model. Like, how does that differ? She launched a hundred million dollar capital campaign. And so she has to attract a lot of donations.
43:35Laura Mandaro:And these donors, I mean, you know, one of the things that I found interesting was that the environment in which we are talking about health today is a little bit different than it might've been a couple of years ago because of this movement, you know, make America healthy again is something people are talking about uh she certainly has a very wealthy network but is this a fundamentally different uh ecosystem for a project like this today
44:00Jing Yang:you know absolutely i mean i think a lot of things have changed like one thing i should say is and you know and that she shared is that you know she has made even inroads already she's got a great rolodex as you mentioned and i mean they're one donor who asked to remain anonymous but like Like, he didn't even get asked. Like, he saw her at a tech conference. He heard that she was turning into a nonprofit. And he reached out and said, I'd like to pledge$20 million. I mean, that's not that common also, you know, for many nonprofits. So that started. But, you know, you're right. The ecosystem is so different.
44:39Jing Yang:Anne has always, because she started so early, she faced the medical, you know, she faced down the medical establishment. She, you know, she locked horns with the FDA. Like she sees herself even as much as she's part of the, you know, Silicon Valley establishment. She always kind of sees herself as an outsider at the same time. I mean, it's a kind of unique thing. And she said that she really was, you know, feels comfortable at least with the energy of the Maha, you know, we need our information there. You know, I'm the best expert. I can, you know, be transparent with me. Like she really vibes with that.
45:18Jing Yang:And I think she's hoping that she can find a way for the nonprofit to fit into at least that aspect of the Maha movement.
45:26Laura Mandaro:Did you guys discuss the economics of the business at all in terms of we were talking about the profitability of a single test even, you know, that you have to make the test cheap enough to make it affordable. I imagine it's expensive to run in the background. But I mean, back to the sort of the fundamental business model, is she thinking about that differently at all in this new iteration for the company?
45:47Jing Yang:I think right now what I was struck by is that the business model on the consumer side is pretty similar to what it had been for the for-profit company, which means trying to convince people to buy tests, trying to convince them to pay annual subscriptions to get access to more advanced reports. At the same time, she has to have this new identity as a nonprofit to try to attract philanthropists. I mean, it's a real balancing act. When I sat down with her, she's still at the very beginning of trying to figure this all out. So right now, the business model on the consumer side looks pretty similar.
46:29Jing Yang:And whether that's going to be any more successful or more successful in this iteration remains to be seen.
46:35Laura Mandaro:And so I am just curious. I mean, when you walked away from this conversation, you've been covering the space for so long. Did you leave feeling confident in a second wind here for 23andMe? I mean, they don't have shareholders anymore. It's just nonprofits. So, I mean, presumably this is going to work.
46:51Jing Yang:I mean, listen, I never underestimate anyone in, you know, in Silicon Valley, especially Anne, because she really fought to, you know, get this back. I think the question, and there's no question that DNA testing is part of all of our lives, okay? So the big question, though, is can she turn this database that the company amassed over so many years and now the nonprofit has, can she turn it into something that will draw in people that weren't doing this before? Can she get scientists to use it? Can she get companies to maybe, you know, contribute? Can she get philanthropists? I think that it's promising, but it's a really crowded marketplace.
47:39Jing Yang:And so it's too soon to really counter out, but also it's too soon to be sure that this is going to succeed. Right.
47:47Laura Mandaro:Well, Amy, I want to thank you for coming on and sharing with us all that you found. That is Amy Doxner-Marcus, our health and science reporter here at The Information. That does it for today's show. Oh, a reminder, we are on this stream Monday through Friday at 10 a.m. Pacific, 1 p.m. Eastern. I want to thank you all for tuning in. We really do appreciate your viewership. Make sure to subscribe to the information on YouTube and follow us on X, Instagram, TikTok, and check us out wherever you get your podcasts. I'm already excited for our next show on Monday. Have a great weekend. Bye-bye for now.
From the publisher
The Information's Martin Peers and Laura Mandaro break down Anthropic’s legal battle with the Department of Defense and OpenAI’s decision to narrow its scope by deprioritizing shopping and advertising efforts. We also talk with Robinhood CFO Shiv Verma about the company’s new publicly traded venture fund and its rapid expansion into prediction markets. Then, we get into the global memory chip crunch with Jing Yang and Qianer Liu to see how it’s driving a massive shift toward domestic suppliers in China. Finally, we explore Anne Wojcicki’s radical plan to revive 23andMe as a non-profit with our health and science reporter Amy Dockser Marcus.
Articles discussed on this episode:
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/quince-talks-double-valuation-10-billion
https://www.theinformation.com/newsletters/the-briefing/openais-shopping-glitch
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